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Did X Cause Y? A New Look at Attributing Weather Extremes to Climate Change

By: Bob Henson 4:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2016

In a world filled with high-impact weather events, it’s only natural to wonder exactly why your town was beset with a heat wave, a destructive flood, or a deadly tornado. Today, such events occur in a different global atmosphere--one with more greenhouse gases than at any time in human history, thanks to human activity. A growing branch of atmospheric research is working to quantify the influence of human-induced climate change on various types of extreme weather, and there is real progress being made. “It is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of specific weather events,” said Rear Admiral David Titley (Pennsylvania State University) at a press briefing in Washington, D.C., last Friday. Titley chaired a U.S. National Academies committee that has just produced an important report, released on Friday. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change serves as a very useful guide to how this work is carried out, what it can and can’t do, and where the science is heading.

The idea behind attribution research is to provide reasonably satisfying answers to the query so often raised by policy makers and the public: did climate change have anything to do with this event? For years, scientists rightly pointed out that a changing climate doesn’t “cause” any particular event. Often, they added that it was impossible to know exactly what role climate change might have played in a particular weather happening, apart from basic conclusions about how the physics of a warming atmosphere should make certain events increasingly more or less likely.

Things are different now, as pointed out by Titley, the founding director of PSU’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. Attribution research, said Titley, “makes the future of climate real. It brings the future into the present.”


Figure 1. A schematic depiction of the National Academies assessment of the state of attribution science for different event types. The horizontal position of each event type reflects the level of understanding of the effect of climate change on that event type, and corresponds to the rightmost column in Figure 2. The vertical position of each event corresponds to scientific confidence in current capabilities for attributing specific events of that type to anthropogenic climate change; this vertical position draws on all three columns in Figure 2. In all cases, there is potential to increase event-attribution confidence by overcoming remaining challenges that limit the current level of understanding. Image credit: National Academies.


Figure 2. An overall assessment of the state of event attribution science for various event types. In each category, the committee has provided an estimate of confidence, based on the available scientific literature and the results of committee deliberation and judgment. Image credit: National Academies.


A spectrum of understanding
While this report has some fairly technical content, including heavy-duty statistical concepts, most of the terminology is well explained up front. This follows in the tradition of reports from the National Academies that speak to a broad, policy-interested audience on emerging science topics of keen public interest. It was high time for this particular report, said committee member Marshall Shepherd (University of Georgia), a WU contributing blogger and host of the Weather Channel’s popular “WX Geeks” series. In the headline of a Forbes commentary published on Friday, Shepherd heralds “The Death to One of the Most Abused Questions Ever: Was That Caused by Climate Change?” He cites this question as “so abused by ALL sides of the climate discussion.”

The ideas underlying the new report are summarized nicely in Figure 1, which places a variety of extreme weather events on a twofold spectrum: how well the influence of climate change is understood, and how confidently we can attribute specific instances of that event to climate change. Figure 2 elaborates on Figure 1 for each event category. As one might expect, our confidence in attribution goes up as our understanding increases--but not all events line up on this straight line. Tropical cyclones are a good example. There is a growing body of research concluding that we can expect the frequency of the most intense storms to rise in many parts of the world, a finding reiterated by the IPCC in 2013. Several studies in the last decade have suggested this trend is already under way, especially in the Atlantic. Yet tropical cyclones remain rare enough that it is tough to disentangle natural variability and observational uncertainty from the actual impact of climate change. Top global models are just now gaining the skill and resolution to simulate trends in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes over centuries, or to embed individual storms such as Hurricane Sandy into global-scale models that replicate the climate of the distant past and our greenhouse-warmed future.


Figure 3. Three potential ways in which a warming climate could affect heat and cold extremes: (top) shifting the entire distribution of observed temperatures toward a warmer average; (middle) increasing the variability of the distribution; and (bottom) skewing the curve in one direction or the other. Image credit: National Academies.


Heat waves and cold waves provide the best-understood and most-straightforward links: as climate change proceeds, we can expect more extreme heat and less extreme cold, with occasional exceptions here and there. In many areas, we have a century or more of good-quality temperature data, and this helps smooth the way toward making solid attributions. “Heat waves and cold waves may be the best candidates for assessing the reliability and robustness of attribution methods,” says the report.

Severe convective storms--intense thunderstorms and the hail, wind, and tornadoes they spawn--rank lowest on the spectrum in Figure 1. That’s not to imply that these storms are necessarily immune to the influence of greenhouse gases. The point is that (a) such influences are not yet crystal clear, in part because of sampling and observing issues, and (b) the huge natural variability in severe weather makes it hard to pluck out a climate-change signal for a particular storm. There is intriguing progress being made in these areas, though, some of which I’ll be covering in a future blog based on a meeting I attended last week at Columbia University (the 2nd Workshop on Severe Convection and Climate).


Figure 4. A man walks along the heavily damaged beach on November 2, 2012, in the Rockaway neighborhood of Queens, New York City, following the devastating arrival of Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images.

Asking the right question
In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. “Statements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,” the report notes. “For example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question ‘was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?’ as ‘by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?’”

Once a well-posed question is in hand, there’s a growing toolbox of techniques for researchers to draw on, amply discussed in the report. Many attribution studies include a mix of observations and model-based simulations, with the goal of determining how much more likely a certain type of event has become (such as a heat wave of a particular strength over the Midwest) due to the presence of human-produced greenhouse gases.

The most familiar source of attribution research for many of us is the dozens of studies compiled each year since 2012 in special issues of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. These studies are useful in many ways, the report notes, but they shouldn’t be taken as a collective assessment of how climate change affects the whole gamut of extreme weather. For example, there is a selection bias at work. These reports focus on the highest-impact weather of a given year, so if a particular type of event has become increasingly rare (say, mammoth citrus-killing freezes in Florida), it’s much less likely to get examined.

Why the cookie crumbles
I helped take a very informal stab at an attribution spectrum in 2012 while part of the communications group at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. For this special project, we found ourselves touching on some of the questions of framing, phrasing, and methodology that are dissected much more thoroughly in this report. It’s encouraging to see how much the discipline has been growing, and how much vital knowledge it will be able to generate with the appropriate level of support and focus. The National Academies report should go a long way toward the “mainstreaming” of attribution research. It will also help journalists, educators, and others who need to put this often-esoteric science into terms that people can easily grasp. The links between greenhouse gases and extreme weather are far too important and intricate to be dismissed or broad-brushed.

Consider this tasty analogy provided by David Titley: we can think of a freshly-baked cookie as a weather event, with the ingredients being the factors that aligned to cause the event (i.e., large-scale atmospheric features), and the baking surface and the oven temperature representing conditions in which the event occurred (i.e., increasing greenhouse gases, decreasing sea ice). “When you bite into a cookie and it doesn’t taste right,” said Titley, “it can be hard to determine what went wrong.”

You can download a PDF of the full report at the National Academies website. Jeff Masters will be back on Thursday with coverage of NOAA’s highly anticipated report on global climate for February. See our report from this past weekend on NASA’s blockbuster data.

Bob Henson

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2016, the Year the Globe sizzles




Global warming levels masked by aerosols: study

There was a silver lining to the sulfur pollution in our atmosphere late last century – it offset some of the warming effects of greenhouse gases. And now we're cleaning up our act, the Arctic has suffered. Amy Middleton reports.

Link
The proof is in da pudding comes to my mind.


The idea behind attribution research is to provide reasonably satisfying answers to the query so often raised by policy makers and the public: did climate change have anything to do with this event? For years, scientists rightly pointed out that a changing climate doesn’t “cause” any particular event. Often, they added that it was impossible to know exactly what role climate change might have played in a particular weather happening, apart from basic conclusions about how the physics of a warming atmosphere should make certain events increasingly more or less likely.

Things are different now, as pointed out by Titley, the founding director of PSU’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. Attribution research, said Titley, “makes the future of climate real. It brings the future into the present.”

Thanks for the information on the new publication and the breakdown of the contents and methodology. There has been tons of discussion, and argument, regarding Sandy including on this site during and in the aftermath of that storm. I was not happy when some folks (in the media as well) pointed the finger towards Sandy as the "poster child" for climate change, at the time it was happening, when most professional mets were noting how this was a rare, and unprecedented event, in terms of a "merger" off the Eastern Seaboard between a tropical storm and the continental low; then the trajectory issue (of both lows) combined with the ultimate landfall location and surge devastation on the coast.

Sound like this new publication addresses those issues; while Sandy may not have "directly" been caused by climate change, to the degree that there was more available moisture in the atmosphere, that SST's remained favorable up the seaboard, and that surge issues are clearly impacted by sea level rise (the large scale factors influenced by climate change and arctic melt-jet stream patterns), then Sandy may in fact be a good glimpse of what the immediate future might bring in terms of near Conus tropical storms.
No time to blog today as we weatherundergrounder's have to get back to the job of Dominating the Political scene.

: P
Anyone hear from Sar yet? I hope everything is going well for him...
Quoting 5. Patrap:

No time to blog today as we weatherundergrounder's have to get back to the job of Dominating the Political scene.

: P





Any of the statistical wizards running for President will have no issue understanding Figure 3, so we're good...
And for the blog hourly El nino update, enso 3.4 is at 1.792c.
As I have said many times on here the past few years (and this is my personal opinion), my personal choice for "poster child" on the global warming issue (and particularly the issue of documented Greenland ice sheet melt) is the more persistent and pronounced cool pool off of Greenland and the anomalous pile-up of the Gulf Stream just below that region.

In a nice easy to understand visual format............................................







Quoting 6. 757surfer:

Anyone hear from Sar yet? I hope everything is going well for him...


have not seen him for some time now
wundering myself yesterday about him
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!
Well in my view and opinion, it is the 31 straight "year's" of Warm Biased Global Avg Temps in a row...that seals da deal.

Hey, the "Art of the Climate Deal"

See what eyes dids theres ?



Feb CO2ppm was 404.16ppm








One article from 2014 from Britain on their bitter winter that year and possible connection to the Greenland cold pool cooling down the Gulf Stream current that normally moderates their temperatures:

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2014/12/gulf-stream-c old-anomaly-growing-as-uk.html


Dec 2014 Cold Pool:

 
Runoff from the recent stormy period continues in the reservoir watersheds. Our Sierra reservoir has moved rapidly to 92% of capacity and 2.5 feet away from brimful.
Quoting 11. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



have not seen him for some time now
wundering myself yesterday about him
Haven't seen him for a few weeks....Asked about him a week or 2 ago. I know he has some health issues. Hope all is well with him.
And the same chart for yesterday:

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly - Current
I've read elsewhere that the El Nino may be contributing much less to the recent 'jaw dropping' global warmth than is generally supposed. If true, that's a big concern, and this map of the global temperature anomaly for February seems to support the idea.



By contrast, look at Arctic temperatures during February of the 1998 event:


Quoting 18. yonzabam:

I've read elsewhere that the El Nino may be contributing much less to the recent 'jaw dropping' global warmth than is generally supposed. If true, that's a big concern, and this map seems to support the idea.



Perhaps. A small deconstruction: Surprise, but not shock (Tamino)
Patrap below is correct; Dr. Masters noted a few weeks ago that while El Nino naturally adds some more warmth in any such enso cycle, that this does not account for the overall effects of global warming and documented heating. And the recent heat records of recent years, and stuck jet patterns that we have seen both in the summer and winter causing extreme temperature fluxes, have persisted across neutral, El Nino, and La Nina phases

If you break down the chart below (Yonzabam), the Arctic has actually warmed 12F in the past several years .........That alone is pretty jaw dropping.
If you doubt where my political loyalty and logic are, just click my handle and read the article posted there Xmas Eve past.
Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:

One article from 2014 from Britain on their bitter winter that year and possible connection to the Greenland cold pool cooling down the Gulf Stream current that normally moderates their temperatures:


The winter of 2014/2015 wasn't a bitter one, it was 0.2C above average. The winter of 2015/2016 was the 3rd warmest on record for the UK at 1.8C above average. It was the warmest on record for England and Wales.
From the above blog - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

This is called manipulating the data and is dishonest. This isn't the worst case I've seen, but if you have to structure a question "appropriately", what you are actually doing is trying to get the respondent to answer the question in a way that supports your political agenda and goals.

Just ask the question honestly and let the cards fall where they may.

The worst case I ever saw was when voting on a ballot measure. It was worded so that if you voted no, you were actually voting yes, and vice versa.
Dry Thunderstorms! For Quincy IL!
And in case you missed it, some good news about the drought in California:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/14/storms-reple nish-key-reservoirs-amid-california-drought.html?i ntcmp=hphz09
Quoting 21. 62901IL:
Thanks dok Henson.



Whoever you vote for, DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP.

Vote Bernie instead.


It's the primaries. If one is in a position to not vote for Trump, one cannot vote for Bernie (and vice versa)...
And for Hazelwood MO!
Quoting 27. NttyGrtty:



It's the primaries. If one is in a position to not vote for Trump, one cannot vote for Bernie (and vice versa)...


I don't quite understand. We have to vote for both candidates?
Quoting 29. 62901IL:



I don't quite understand. We have to vote for both candidates?


In a primary election, you are only allowed to vote for candidates that are registered under the same political party as yourself. Thus, if someone was inclined to vote for Trump, they would not be able to vote for Sanders because one is Republican and the other is a Democrat.
Quoting 29. 62901IL:


I don't quite understand. We have to vote for both candidates?


Not usually, unless your a registered democrat, then you can even vote if you're dead...
The Global Solution to Extinction
By EDWARD O. WILSON MARCH 12, 2016




DURING the summer of 1940, I was an 11-year-old living with my family in a low-income apartment in Washington, D.C. We were within easy walking distance of the National Zoo and an adjacent strip of woodland in Rock Creek Park. I lived most of my days there, visiting exotic animals and collecting butterflies and other insects with a net that I had fashioned from a broom handle, coat hanger and cheesecloth. I read nature books, field guides and past volumes of National Geographic. I had already conceived then of a world of life awaiting me, bottomless in variety.

Seventy-six years later, I have kept that dream. As a teacher and scientist I have tried to share it. The metaphor I offer for biological diversity is the magic well: The more you draw, the more there is to draw.

But today the dream is at risk. Civilization is at last turning green, albeit only pale green. Our attention remains focused on the physical environment — on pollution, the shortage of fresh water, the shrinkage of arable land and, of course, the great, wrathful demon that threatens all our lives, human-forced climate change. But Earth’s living environment, including all its species and all the ecosystems they compose, has continued to receive relatively little attention. This is a huge strategic mistake. If we save the living environment of Earth, we will also save the physical, nonliving environment, because each depends on the other. But if we work to save only the physical environment, as we seem bent on doing, we will lose them both.

So, what exactly is the current condition of the living environment, in particular its biological diversity and stability? How are we handling this critical element of Earth’s sustainability?

To begin, how many species of organisms are known on the planet? Here, our knowledge is pathetically weak. At the present time, about two million species have been discovered, described and given a Latinized scientific name. But how many are there actually, known and unknown? Putting aside the bacteria and a distinctive group of microbes called the archaea (which I like to call together the dark matter of biology because so little is understood of their diversity), the best estimate we have of all the rest (the fungi, algae, plants and animals) is roughly 10 million, give or take a million.

Except for the vertebrates (consisting of 63,000 described species of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and the flowering plants (with approximately 270,000 species), relatively little is collectively known about millions of kinds of fungi, algae and most diverse of all, the insects and other invertebrate animals. And that matters, a lot: These least understood minions are the foundation of the living world. They are the little things that run the Earth.

In short, we live on a little-known planet. E.T. and other alien biologists visiting Earth would, I suspect, be appalled at our weak knowledge of our homeland. They would be mystified by the scant attention humanity gives to the life-forms on which our existence depends.

The one major reserve in the United States that has been subjected to a complete census is the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Fifty thousand hours of field work there by specialists and assistants have yielded records of 18,000 species of animals and microorganisms alone, with 40,000 to 60,000 considered likely on the roster when all transients, as well as rare and undescribed species, have been registered.

more:,...
Quoting 18. yonzabam:

I've read elsewhere that the El Nino may be contributing much less to the recent 'jaw dropping' global warmth than is generally supposed. If true, that's a big concern, and this map of the global temperature anomaly for February seems to support the idea.



By contrast, look at Arctic temperatures during February of the 1998 event:


The arctic is heating more than twice as fast as the rest of the world. Since 1998, we have gained so much heat in the arctic that the Arctic Oscillation is trending significantly slower now. In every super El Nino, prior to this one, the AO has trended positive, because the extra heat that El Nino imparts into lower lattitudes increases the temperature/pressure gradient - boosting the AO.

In this El Nino the AO trended around neutral. This seems likely since, even though there is record heat from El Nino, it wasn't enough to create a significant gradient relative to how much warmer the arctic is now. The weaker AO helps enable heat from lower lattitudes to pour into the arctic, where it has an even more profound effect on increasing global temperature anomalies.

In the end, it's all a wash, and one has to look no further than what's going on with the cumulative heat increases of our upper oceans. It's absolutely staggering!
Quoting 31. tampabaymatt:



In a primary election, you are only allowed to vote for candidates that are registered under the same political party as yourself. Thus, if someone was inclined to vote for Trump, they would not be able to vote for Sanders because one is Republican and the other is a Democrat.

Only true in states with closed primaries. About half the states have open primaries where you can vote for any candidate, no matter your party affiliation.

Quoting 23. Envoirment:



The winter of 2014/2015 wasn't a bitter one, it was 0.2C above average. The winter of 2015/2016 was the 3rd warmest on record for the UK at 1.8C above average. It was the warmest on record for England and Wales.


Thanks for the correction.................................For the Blog members, I am heading out early from work to vote. Regardless of your political affiliation, thousands of Americans have given their lives to help protect our liberties and so we have the right to free elections. My Father fought around the world as a covert Cold Warrior fighting back Communist insurgencies and other dictatorial governments and instilled a love of Country in me.

I defer to him, again, as he nears his 90th b-day this year, when we spoke the other day on current politics; "Regardless of who you vote for son, you have to vote; this Country is not perfect but it is still one of the greatest places in the world to live and it is your duty to vote for the person of your choice..........We fought too hard for that right".

Quoting 34. VibrantPlanet:

double post sorry my fault. Got to remember to click "Modify Comment" not "Quote" duh :P
   Thanks for the update Mr. Henson...
Quoting 21. 62901IL:

Thanks dok Henson.




never tell someone who too vote or who you voted for that's an individuals right to decide and remain secret
Quoting 24. Sandy82579:

From the above blog - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

This is called manipulating the data and is dishonest. The isn't the worst case I've seen, but if you have to structure a question "appropriately", what you are actually doing is trying to get the respondent to answer the question in a way that supports your political agenda and goals.

Just ask the question honestly and let the cards fall where they may.

The worst case I ever saw was when voting on a ballot measure. It was worded so that if you voted no, you were actually voting yes, and vice versa.


I don't think the questions he is talking about are going on a survey, poll or ballot to be answered by a human being. Rather its a scientific question used for the basis of research... did you ever do a science fair project? If you did then you remember the first step was to come up with a question to answer with your project. "Why is the sky blue?", "How do magnets work?". Bob was just saying that "by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?" is a much better question to ask than "was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?".
Closing in on 70 in S C IL, StL already over and they're a little lower in pressure 29.49" vs 29.6" (as low as I've seen in a while) winds gusting into 20s from SSE-ESE. Dew pts fortunately are only in mid 50s so far. This morning noticed they dropped the 4 TorCon down to Spfld, had been mainly NW previously.
Quoting 36. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks for the correction.................................For the Blog members, I am heading out early from work to vote. Regardless of your political affiliation, thousands of Americans have given their lives to help protect our liberties and so we have the right to free elections. My Father fought around the world as a covert Cold Warrior fighting back Communist insurgencies and other dictatorial governments and instilled a love of Country in me.

I defer to him, again, as he nears his 90th b-day this year, when we spoke the other day on current politics; "Regardless of who you vote for son, you have to vote; this Country is not perfect but it is still one of the greatest places in the world to live and it is your duty to vote for the person of your choice..........We fought too hard for that right".




Already voted earlier this morning!
Quoting 24. Sandy82579:

From the above blog - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

This is called manipulating the data and is dishonest. This isn't the worst case I've seen, but if you have to structure a question "appropriately", what you are actually doing is trying to get the respondent to answer the question in a way that supports your political agenda and goals.

Just ask the question honestly and let the cards fall where they may.

The worst case I ever saw was when voting on a ballot measure. It was worded so that if you voted no, you were actually voting yes, and vice versa.


Manipulating the data? Seriously? That's called narrowing a research question. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the wording of this question "by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?’

What you are trying to discuss is the asking of leading questions in survey construction . Asking a respondent a question is different than testing a hypothesis in an attribution study. Confusing the two seems purposeful here.
Florida Republicans Demand Climate Change Solutions
Democratic and Republican mayors in the Sunshine State realize something must be done about global warming
By Erika Bolstad, ClimateWire on March 15, 2016


Scientific American



People in Florida have a pretty sophisticated understanding of the issues surrounding climate change now, said Ben Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Miami Mayor Tomás Regalado's phone started ringing. CNN's Jake Tapper had just used the Republican city leader's question about climate change and sea-level rise in a GOP presidential debate, and the candidates for president were being asked about what might be the greatest threat to jobs, housing and the wider economy of the Sunshine State.
"I started answering the phone," Regalado said. "People kept me awake until midnight."

Regalado may not have gotten the exact answer he was looking for from fellow Republicans. But on the eve of an election that will shape who goes on to the White House, Regalado was more than pleased that the polarizing topic made it into the national conversation, especially during a debate in his hard-hit state.

As primary voters in Florida go to the polls today, scientists, business leaders and political figures all say they've seen a shift this election cycle. Figuring out how to adapt to the economic realities of 6 to 10 inches of sea-level rise over 1992 levels in the next 15 years has become a bipartisan issue in much of Florida, particularly in places most vulnerable to rising seas.

"Some people see sea-level rise as something that is coming up in the next 50 years," Regalado said. "But in Miami, people know about flooding. People understand flooding, and people understand the consequences of sea-level rise and the need to do something."

Republican presidential candidates have been asked about the science and the effects of climate change before, and in a debate setting. Never, though, have they been asked by one of their own, and never in a place where the waters are rising quite so fast, where sea-level rise and its effects show up as regularly as the tides.

Already, the city of Miami Beach is pouring money into elevated roadways and pumping systems that keep high tides from flooding city streets, just the beginning of pricey plans to protect the city's $30 billion tax base. These expensive projects aren't just municipal problems for mayors -- losses to the tax base from sea-level rise or storm surge at a tourist draw like Miami Beach could be a costly hit not just to individual homeowners but to the state economy.

"How do we respond to the climate change that we've already committed?" he said. "There's a certain amount of climate change that's going to happen over the next 25 years that no matter what we do on the mitigation time scale, it's committed. We already made that commitment; we have to respond. We've already put that heat into the ocean from our previous fossil fuel burning."

RUBIO'S CALL TO REDUCE DAMAGE 'A START'

much more:,...

Quoting 35. kestrel68:


Only true in states with closed primaries. About half the states have open primaries where you can vote for any candidate, no matter your party affiliation.




And many of those states require the voter declare allegiance to a certain political party prior to voting. Also, many states conduct their Dem or Rep primaries on different days. In essence, it's not very likely there are many people struggling with whether to vote for Trump or Sanders in a primary election.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW
1:18 AM EST March 15 2016
===============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 138.4E or 150 km northwest of Mornington Island and 355 km west of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday morning as it approaches Cape York Peninsula.

GALES may develop between the Northern Territory/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Northern Territory/Queensland border to Cape Keerweer
Quoting 24. Sandy82579:

From the above blog - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

This is called manipulating the data and is dishonest. This isn't the worst case I've seen, but if you have to structure a question "appropriately", what you are actually doing is trying to get the respondent to answer the question in a way that supports your political agenda and goals.

Just ask the question honestly and let the cards fall where they may.

The worst case I ever saw was when voting on a ballot measure. It was worded so that if you voted no, you were actually voting yes, and vice versa.
No, it's not "manipulating the data"; it's called "proper framing". You know the old one-liner for which there is no appropriate or acceptable response: "Was that the first murder you've committed?" That's a poorly framed question. So is, "Did steroid use cause Barry Bonds to hit his 364th career home run?" So is "Was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?"

Surely you see the difference.

Properly framed, the original question should be precisely as Bob stated it: "How much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?" That's how scientists seek the truth. That's how science works...
might these attribution studies may also play a role in future lawsuits against companies like ExxonMobil- which it is clear was fully aware decades ago that its products were (and are still) contributing to a serious and growing threat to humanity- and people like the Koch brothers who have worked so tirelessly to mis-inform the public on the seriousness of climate change?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20152016
22:00 PM RET March 15 2016
===============================
Southeast of Diego Garcia

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 11.3S 85.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 11.2S 84.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 10.9S 84.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 10.6S 84.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 11.2S 86.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
The system has shown strong signs of organization during the last 24 hours within oceanic and atmospheric favorable environmental conditions. The system is over warm waters, in a low shear environment and improving upper level divergence specially southwards. Over the last six hours, cloud tops have a little warmed with always a fluctuating deep convection near the center. However, the 1219z 37ghz WINDSAT microwave imagery shows an low level eye feature almost closed which seems to indicate that the moderate tropical storm stage is close.

The system is moving westwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the south. Within the next two days, a near equatorial ridge should gradually take the lead on the steering flow and a turn towards the east southeast is expected at least during 48 hours. Global models are not in agreement about long this track will last with GFS and the UK bringing the system east of 90E and the EURO leaving the system within our area.. the current forecast is close to the previous one and is based on a mean track between the EURO and GFS.

The only negative factor during the forecast period, is a slight increase of the easterly shear during the next 24 to 48 hours, as the system could move a little bit northwards and lies on the northern edge of the upper level ridge ... at least a climatological intensification should continue but given the small size of the system, rapid variation (including rapid intensification and rapid decay) is expected .
98 P looking really great atm. Nice organization and convective banding. Warm SST's and low shear should allow gradual intensification.
Quoting 48. AldousHux1:

might these attribution studies may also play a role in future lawsuits against companies like ExxonMobil- which it is clear was fully aware decades ago that its products were (and are still) contributing to a serious and growing threat to humanity- and people like the Koch brothers who have worked so tirelessly to mis-inform the public on the seriousness of climate change?


Short answer, no. It's essentially impossible, because the supposed causal connection between global warming and oil company conduct is way too remote and unclear to ever come anywhere close to satisfying basic thresholds of legal liability, to say nothing of contributing conduct by the people themselves and superseding factors like state-controlled Chinese coal mining or volcanic activity. It would be like a single man suing "all good-looking women" because he can't get a date, or one of us suing "the internet" because we think social media and stuff is cheapening the political discourse in this country.
Quoting 9. Gearsts:

And for the blog hourly El nino update, enso 3.4 is at +1.815c.




Check out the 7-Day changes in and around region 1 & 2. Especially with the cold shift going on south of the equator directly along the coast of south america. The heat that was building there is being replaced with cold. Wondering what's causing it - upwelling via winds, cold currents, etc? Could this 7 day change be showing a clear signal of El Nino's oceanic rossby wave reflecting back to the west? Seems like all options to slow the rate of El Nino cooling are fading fast.
Quoting 54. VibrantPlanet:




Check out the 7-Day changes in and around region 1 & 2. Especially with the cold shift going on south of the equator directly along the coast of south america. The heat that was building there is being replaced with cold. Wondering what's causing it - upwelling via winds, cold currents, etc? Could this 7 day change be showing a clear signal of El Nino's oceanic rossby wave reflecting back to the west? Seems like all options to slow the rate of El Nino cooling are fading fast.


This thing is collapsing. Drops about 0.02C a day, which puts it on pace to be dissipated completely by June.
Quoting 47. Neapolitan:

Properly framed, the original question should be precisely as Bob stated it: "How much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?" That's how scientists seek the truth. That's how science works...


A neutral form of the question would be: "How much did human influence on climate alter the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?".
I'm not sure if this story was posted yet. It's one of AOL's top stories.

Sea level rise projected to displace 13M in US by 2100
Link
If you scroll down they have pictures of World landmarks with an increase of 25 ft. of water.
Quoting 56. elioe:



A neutral form of the question would be: "How much did human influence on climate alter the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?".


That would be the case if you were looking to do a two tailed statistical test. In the case of attribution the only interest is in the one tail, increased odds.
On the North Shore of Boston I can attest to a, b, and c! Notably, there has been a skewing of thunderstorm frequency and even strength. In summer, meterologists attribute to increased marine influence ( thereby avoiding the uncomfortable mention of "climate change." ) Of course, the underlying reason is that there is less Arctic ice and it's melting faster. Summer cold fronts can only be described as pitiful! It may seem simplistic, but I'm convinced that global warming ends when the summer thunderstorms return AND the winter ones go away...on a regular basis.
Quoting 48. AldousHux1:

might these attribution studies may also play a role in future lawsuits against companies like ExxonMobil- which it is clear was fully aware decades ago that its products were (and are still) contributing to a serious and growing threat to humanity- and people like the Koch brothers who have worked so tirelessly to mis-inform the public on the seriousness of climate change?

Extremely unlikely, since the science on this has been clear for the last 100+ years. But let me ask you this, now that we are fully aware that ExxonMobil has known for decades, have we stopped lining up at Exxon (or any other gas station for that matter) for gasoline or diesel?

Nino 3.4 down to 1.792 now. It has dropped nearly 0.05 in the past day. Likely a sign of a collapsing El Nino.
Warm water temps!!! Thank goodness the GOM temps aren't too terribly warm, or thunderstorms would be muuuccchhhh worse!!!
80.6 F here at the S. Shore.

Nice drying weather before the next system rolls thru with 1-3 inch totals tomorrow night thru Saturday.

FEMA Teams have arrived in Baton Rouge, Shreveport areas for the flood assessment and to begin other Disaster related processes.


Property owners with flood damage encouraged to register with FEMA


Flood relief: What you need to know
The News Star 2:55 p.m. CDT March 14, 2016



Louisiana's flood waters are causing caskets to float to the surface. Photo from Starks, La., March 15, 2016. (Photo: 12newsnow.com)
Wow we've got an eye forming on this system. Definitely not a depression at this point, if anything, minimal hurricane. This depression remains in a very moist environment with 30C waters, and low shear. Outflow has expanded to the SW, and banding has increased to the NE. Gradual strengthening over the next few days.
Quoting 58. Naga5000:



That would be the case if you were looking to do a two tailed statistical test. In the case of attribution the only interest is in the one tail, increased odds.


Its a one tailed test, but the odds can increase or decrease. So the term "alter" would be more correct. However thats really nitpicking.
SH982016 - INVEST
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Mid 70s to your N Pat, dew pt here up to 59, pressure is down to 29.5" gusts still mid 20s from SE. StL has stayed at 56 dew pt, not dropped quite as much, now 29.41". No clouds overhead, so full heating, but can see them on horizons. On radar appears the line is forming from S C MN thru central IA , NW MO to E C KS w/ heaviest convection in IA. Will know in a few hours if TorCons to our NW bear out.

Edit: and as soon as I post, watch just posted from SPC.
 
More Indian Hills Summer....
Back from the vote; as folks are looking at the current storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, here is the global layout for the main regions subject to tropical storm development:



Tornado watch for IL, MO, IA. This song is to be played during any and all warnings.
Song to be played during Tornado Warnings

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER
NORTHEAST MO AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART
Top of Page/All Current Watches/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 14U
4:48 AM EST March 16 2016
===============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 16.0S 139.4E or 80 km north northeast of Mornington Island and 255 km west southwest of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday morning as it approaches Cape York Peninsula.

GALES may develop between the Northern Territory/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS: 16.4S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.5S 141.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.7S 141.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 14.4S 141.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================
Position good, based on a combination of radar, surface observation and satellite.

The low is within a deepening monsoon trough with pressure falls of 2-3 hPa around the southeast Gulf. ASCAT/RAPIDSCAT in the last 12-24h has shown 25-30 knots in the westerly wind surge to the north. The 850-700 HPA ridge is balancing the westerly to the north, however at 500 HPA the ridge is weaker due to a mid latitude mid-level trough, so the monsoon westerly has been dominating and creating a northeast tilt on the low. However, during the last 6 to 12 hours or so, satellite imagery has shown strong convective bursts develop over a previously exposed low level circulation center.

Apart from this moderate wind shear, the broadscale environment is favorable for further development with excellent dual outflow channels and deep moisture. Guidance suggests that the wind shear remains steady until about 00Z Thu, so the next 24 hours is the best window for development. At a standard rate, T3.0 could be reached by 16/1800UTC [Thu morning]. Given it's a small system rapid intensification can't be ruled out. Likewise, development may be slower if shear is more of a factor [as was previously thought].

From 0000Z Thu, shear begins to increase slightly and dry air begins to entangle with the system from the south and west, so weakening is expected.

Dvorak gives a DT of 2.0 with 0.3-0.4 curved band. Final intensity set at 25 knots, well supported by surface obs at Center Island and Mornington Island and scatterometer. Wind speed at these locations have been 15-20 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Northern Territory/Queensland border to Cape Keerweer
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:

 
More Indian Hills Summer....



Our 7 day looks almost identical to yours if you raised the low temperatures by about 5 degrees.
0.0"of rain this month so far here in Fort Myers.
The current look heading into the Great Lakes:

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop
Central Great Lakes sector loop
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Storm Name: 06R


2016MAR15 190000 2.3 1006.6 +0.0 33.0 2.3 2.7 5.3 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 0.14 -60.25 EYE -99 IR -6.5 11.3S 85.7E

Dvorak: 2.3
Raw Dvorak: 5.3
Eye Scene
In the S E most county of the watch box, so expect most of the action will be to our NW & N, but it's definitely starting to line up / fire up.
Quoting 76. HadesGodWyvern:

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Storm Name: 06R





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/03/19 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
We've fundamentally changed our climate. The jet stream has changed, patterns now change quickly and thousand year events are now yearly events around the world. The scale of change has been clearly underestimated and we're looking at change we are in no way prepared for. The world yawns and pays great lip service, while our world CO2 output stays on a trajectory of disaster. We are kidding ourselves if we think we have come anywhere close to taking the necessary steps to blunt AGW. We are way behind.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ALL-TIME WARMEST WINTER TEMPERATURE RECORDED AT NASHVILLE TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...

FOLKS WERE BREAKING OUT THE SHORTS, TANK TOPS AND FLIP-FLOPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN NASHVILLE, AS RECORD-BREAKING HEAT ROLLED IN.

THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SO FAR TODAY IN MUSIC CITY HAS
BEEN 86 DEGS, WHICH HANDILY SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET
BACK IN 2012. INTERESTINGLY, THE 87 DEG HIGH TODAY MAKES THIS THE
WARMEST WINTER DAY EVER RECORDED IN NASHVILLE SINCE RECORD-
KEEPING BEGAN WAY BACK IN 1871. THE OLD SEASON RECORD AT NASHVILLE
WAS 86 DEGS, SET PREVIOUSLY ON MARCH 12 AND 13, 1907, MARCH 18,
1908 AND MARCH 19, 1982.
Quoting 74. Sfloridacat5:



Our 7 day looks almost identical to yours if you raised the low temperatures by about 5 degrees.
0.0"of rain this month so far here in Fort Myers.
Rain for the CoCoRaHS location around the corner from me is .99", Feb was .55", current temp 76F
Quoting 68. dabirds:

Mid 70s to your N Pat, dew pt here up to 59, pressure is down to 29.5" gusts still mid 20s from SE. StL has stayed at 56 dew pt, not dropped quite as much, now 29.41". No clouds overhead, so full heating, but can see them on horizons. On radar appears the line is forming from S C MN thru central IA , NW MO to E C KS w/ heaviest convection in IA. Will know in a few hours if TorCons to our NW bear out.

Edit: and as soon as I post, watch just posted from SPC.


I'm by no means a guru but this was a tweet I posted about 45 minutes ago. I emphasize MO and IA as my folks are in the enhanced area in the tri-state area of MO/IA/IL:

"The threat isn't from the precip in NW MO and IA. New cells fire west side of the watch box in MO then move NE"

Edit: radar now shows the storm initiation. SE IA is in a blind spot between STL and the Quad Cities.

Static loops:



Hope this is wrong. It will kill all the new buds, and they never come back as plush....

Quoting 71. 62901IL:

Tornado watch for IL, MO, IA. This song is to be played during any and all warnings.
Song to be played during Tornado Warnings




D.C metro has been shut down for the rest of today and all of tomorrow so our office will be teleworking.That is okay for me in a way because I won't be exposed to pollen that much.Seems Wednesday is the last time we'll see 70's for a while too.
Quoting 83. hydrus:

Hope this is wrong. It will kill all the new buds, and they never come back as plush....


coldest point will be Friday night Saturday morning with lows 18 to 16 f then slow slow rebound but more normal march like temps for a few days maybe till mid next week or just after
Quoting 81. PedleyCA:

Rain for the CoCoRaHS location around the corner from me is .99", Feb was .55", current temp 76F



We've just recently started seeing some brush fires in the my area, even after picking up 13" back in January. But February was pretty dry (around 2") and we've been bone dry for a few weeks.
Ponds, lakes, and the local swamp areas are still pretty full of water, but the non-watered vegetation is really drying out.
Quoting 82. StAugustineFL:



I'm by no means a guru but this was a tweet I posted about 45 minutes ago. I emphasize MO and IA as my folks are in the enhanced area in the tri-state area of MO/IA/IL:

"The threat isn't from the precip in NW MO and IA. New cells fire west side of the watch box in MO then move NE"

Edit: radar now shows the storm initiation. SE IA is in a blind spot between STL and the Quad Cities.



Warnings starting to come in now.
What's right post. The evacuees from Deweyville, who in all likelihood have lost everything, are in Orange County filling up sandbags. Working hard to help their neighbors downstream save what they might. Good people. :)
I've reached my 3 post limit.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... LEE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 526 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF WAYLAND...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WAYLAND AROUND 535 PM CDT.
ALEXANDRIA AROUND 540 PM CDT.
KEOKUK AND WARSAW AROUND 545 PM CDT.
HAMILTON AROUND 550 PM CDT.
CARTHAGE AND FERRIS AROUND 600 PM CDT.
ADRIAN AROUND 605 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CHATFIELD PARK...KEOKUK AIRPORT...ST. PATRICK...GREGORY LANDING...BASCO...
CAMP EASTMAN...WINCHESTER...SUTTER...BENTLEY AND MOOAR.

I'm now at home watching the slow meltdown of the D.C region.The good news is that at least the weather won't be bad to add insult....never mind...chance of T-storms tomorrow.

EDIT:Whhhhhaaat! Nature has gone behind my back! and the now cold rain is looking like it wants to be heavy wet snow for Sunday night into Monday.Its time to give it up winter! You failed and lost the battle while you had a chance
In Review: Stay Tuned for updates as now we are talking about a more eastward track and much colder air to work with%u2026 if some of the European Ensembles are onto something%u2026 we could have a high impact late March snow across the Washington Region and points north and east.
Quoting 89. StAugustineFL:



Warnings starting to come in now.
The tor warned cell was very near Keokuk last I checked.
tornado warned storm headed toward Galesburg, Il

There are reports of very large hail .. tennis ball size
one tornado was reported .. TORNADO OBSERVED 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARSAW

this has lifted but is in with the group of storms heading NNE at 45 mph . A college in Macomb, Il .. Western Illinois University has notified their students to seek shelter ..
Davenport, IA (KDVN) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Davenport, IA (KDVN) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




its growing ..
Quoting 99. whitewabit:



its growing ..
appears to be all converging together it will be fast
Tornado on the ground 2 miles west of Goodhope, Il .. moving NNE .. Goodhope is just north of Macomb, IL


its over Goodhope moving eastward .. line of towns in its path ..

move to a lower level if you can .. TAKE COVER


red lines moisture divergence

yellow lines cape

bulls eye if close to you wab keep watch
multiple cells causing funnels in Fulton and Knox Counties Illinois ..
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



red lines moisture divergence

yellow lines cape

bulls eye if close to you wab keep watch


Just to my west .. Am watching the sky and have radar up and TV Station doing full coverage ..

Very large hail in these storms .. along with the tornado's being reported ..
at 6:40 a confirmed tornado 12 miles north of Macomb tracking to the NNE at 25 mph ..
Quoting 106. whitewabit:

at 6:40 a confirmed tornado 12 miles north of Macomb tracking to the NNE at 25 mph ..

The stream is choppy for me. Captured this from Larry Bell's chasing that one.
Lincoln, IL (KILX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Tornado is moving east along Illinois Route 116 ..
When I saw this , I immediately thought of the blow outs in Siberia, not the Bermuda Triangle.

Gas Craters Off Norway Linked to Fringe Bermuda Triangle Theory

Scientists in Norway have caused a stir with their announcement this week of giant craters in the Barents Sea, which they believe were formed by exploding natural gas. The scientists have even suggested the phenomenon could explain the mysterious Bermuda Triangle—a highly controversial concept.

Researchers at the Arctic University of Norway have described craters off the coast of the country that are up to a half mile (0.8 kilometer) wide and 150 feet (45 meters) deep. They appear to have been caused by the explosive release of methane, also known as natural gas, that was trapped in the sediment below.


Link
Right now looks like the storm might just barely nick the northern parts of Peoria in its current direction. The Springfield storm might be interesting because its in the best position for tornadoes. Here in Wisconsin we might get the remnants of the line about 10-11 o'clock tonight.
cell bowing out reports of straight line winds over 60 mph gusts
much higher .. trees reported blown down ..
Quoting 111. Geoboy645:

Right now looks like the storm might just barely nick the northern parts of Peoria in its current direction. The Springfield storm might be interesting because its in the best position for tornadoes. Here in Wisconsin we might get the remnants of the line about 10-11 o'clock tonight.


Going to be close for northern Peoria area .. just a few miles southward and much larger population area ..

the wind here at my place east of the river has stopped completely .. no wind at all yet 25 miles to my west 60 plus mph winds being recorded ..
Quoting 113. whitewabit:



Going to be close for northern Peoria area .. just a few miles southward and much larger population area ..

the wind here at my place east of the river has stopped completely .. no wind at all yet 25 miles to my west 60 plus mph winds being recorded ..
Sounds like the calm before the storm to me
Yes .. am afraid of that .. starting to hear thunder off in the distances ..

Still 73 degrees here at my place at 7:20 .. well above normal temps for this time of year ..
116. MahFL
Marco Rubio has quit the presidential race...
Quoting 116. MahFL:

Marco Rubio has quit the presidential race...
Not now sorry mahfl but right now severe wx later politics sorry.
Anyway looks like the storm by Springfield is intensifying. The storm will likely hit the southern suburbs of Springfield about 8 o'clock.
Ok looks like a confirmed tornado on the quad cities storm near Rapids city.
Now the Springfield storm is looking like its taking a left turn in to Springfield itself. That's not good.

Quoting 111. Geoboy645:

Right now looks like the storm might just barely nick the northern parts of Peoria in its current direction. The Springfield storm might be interesting because its in the best position for tornadoes. Here in Wisconsin we might get the remnants of the line about 10-11 o'clock tonight.
Where in Wisconsin are you located?
M1.75 INCH hail PEORIA IL reported by EMERGENCY MNGR

Morgan is still winning with 2.75"
Report of funnel cloud over Springfield and tornado around Loami.
Quoting 121. PedleyCA:


Where in Wisconsin are you located?

To the NE of Madison around Columbus.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 749 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LINCOLN IL - KILX 748 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LINCOLN IL - KILX 743 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 738 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 738 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 731 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
From Drake Lawton stream, they are in the dark. He's seeing two large tornadoes on the ground, powerflashes.. This is going into Peoria.
Uh oh possible redevolopement heading towards Downtown Peoria.
Quoting 127. Skyepony:

From Drake Lawton stream, they are in the dark. He's seeing two large tornadoes on the ground, powerflashes.. This is going into Peoria.
That is really not good.
My blog is open for political discussion.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
800 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT  
 
* AT 800 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ANDOVER...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SAVANNA...SABULA AND ARGO FAY AROUND 820 PM CDT.  MOUNT CARROLL AROUND 830 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
BRYANT...CAMP MISS-ELK-TON...MISSISSIPPI PALISADES STATE PARK...CENTER  
HILL...TEEDS GROVE...THOMSON...SOUTH SABULA LAKE PARK...WACKER...THOMSON  
CAUSEWAY AND BULGERS HOLLOW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4208 8991 4193 9011 4193 9015 4190 9015  
4189 9016 4185 9021 4194 9038 4219 9019  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 220DEG 29KT 4194 9026  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
ERVIN  
 
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The Nexlab IL Page

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 802 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
805 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
EAST CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
NORTH CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT  
 
* AT 805 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEST PEORIA...OR NEAR PEORIA...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
PEORIA AROUND 810 PM CDT.  
EAST PEORIA AROUND 820 PM CDT.  
WASHINGTON...GERMANTOWN HILLS...SPRING BAY AND BAY VIEW GARDENS  
AROUND 825 PM CDT.  
METAMORA AND ROME AROUND 830 PM CDT.  
 OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PEORIA  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...NORWOOD...MOSSVILLE...PEORIA HEIGHTS AND  
ALTA.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
INTERSTATE 474 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 5.  
INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 93.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4078 8924 4066 8970 4076 8973 4092 8947  
4092 8945  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 241DEG 26KT 4072 8966  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
HJS  
 
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Sirens are being sounded in East Peoria now.
Tornado sirens going off in the metro Peoria area .. Doppler indicated tornado ..
storming now in Germantown Hills just rain not much wind .. Daughter and grand kids in the basement there ..
Ok possible report of a cone tornado south of Peoria.
radar showing a large amount of lightning through
out the whole area with these storms ..
Nino down to 1.77 now. That's a 0.06 drop since yesterday.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
837 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT  
 
* AT 837 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEER GROVE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF ROCK  
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
DIXON AROUND 900 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NELSON  
AND HARMON.  
 
THIS INCLUDES... SAUK VALLEY COLLEGE.  
 
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...  
I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 59.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4190 8963 4190 8961 4182 8935 4159 8960  
4159 8961 4158 8963  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 224DEG 38KT 4167 8968  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
DONOFRIO  
 
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The Nexlab IL Page

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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 839 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 837 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 837 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 833 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 833 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 829 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 814 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LINCOLN IL - KILX 805 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
Looks like the threat is starting to go down a bit when it comes to tornadoes.
147. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (Final product NOT an official product of either)
D&T:: 201603140330_160100u_COnUS+s (missing frames during 1st 80% OF CLIP)
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.
NOTE1:: colourkey is not official, as for the muted  fluorescent green think of it as untapped higher cooler areas or clouds / condensation, the muted fluorescent  purple  as lack of condensation / lack of clouds, heated areas lower to the surface.
NOTE2:: DO NOT USE AS A FORECASTING TOOL, for unofficial observations only
NOTE3:: check out 120W (19N) near bottom of scren for a Jet STREAK.

WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/cTgcr2G43gI(org 922x605)

Storms blew thru quickly .. leading edge had both wind and hail associated with it .. Hail was up to dime size but was light and only lasted a minute or two at the most before the heavy rain deluged the area for a good 8 to 10 minutes ..

The line that started down south of Springfield has caught up and will merge with the northern part to make one strong line of storms which are moving east at 20 to 30 mph .. at times faster ..
16º difference on which side of the front you are on .. was 73º its now 57º now that
the rain has moved through ..


Rockford looks like it is gonna get hit
Quoting 149. PedleyCA:



Yeah looks like i'm going to get the head of the squall. Already had a brief cell come through her that had 1 inch an hour rainfall rates. My issue out of this whole event is the winds behind it as there going to gust possibly up to 60 mph.
Quoting 139. Patrap:




Looks like Peoria suckerpunched the tornado, seemed to fizzle as it approached the city.
Quoting 153. win1gamegiantsplease:



Looks like Peoria suckerpunched the tornado, seemed to fizzle as it approached the city.


they got lucky .. was headed right at them ..
Its always fun with this thread. Read the Doc's post and then scroll down to find a totally unrelated discussion going on.
Quoting 155. NMPhotog:

Its always fun with this thread. Read the Doc's post and then scroll down to find a totally unrelated discussion going on.


To be fair climate change is a very common discussion in the comments, especially when Naga and Nea are browsing the blog. Actually talking about the types of weather phenomena and their relation to climate change are pretty prevalent as there is some debate among the specifics (ie extreme cold, seasonal/monthly weather patterns). Just doesn't seem to be here today but with severe weather aiming towards a densely populated area it happens.
A current severe weather outbreak is always an appropriate topic.
Quoting 151. PedleyCA:



Rockford looks like it is gonna get hit



So does the East Chicago and Gary IN area in a while.
Quoting 155. NMPhotog:

Its always fun with this thread. Read the Doc's post and then scroll down to find a totally unrelated discussion going on.


Good thing none of us care about your opinion, then. If we wanted to stick exclusively to the blog topic, we would've done it by now.

EDIT: Oh. You're new. That would explain it. Stick around for a bit and learn to lighten up.
West Coast Out...
163. vis0
CREDIT:: National radar via WxU
NOTE:: posting for thos that sleep at niye and wake up to empty ~LIVE radar displays asking what happened.
ImgLand.net image
Hope things are calming down.

As to the blog topic i bet an alternative HEADLINE could have been "Did X Cause Y? & Y? & Y? & Y? & Y? & why?"
 Weird if we get to Yolanda in the NE Pac area, then ask "Did X cause Y(olanda)"?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
Hurricane Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EMERAUDE (06-20152016)
10:00 AM RET March 16 2016
===============================
Southeast of Diego Garcia

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Emeraude (989 hPa) located at 10.8S 85.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 65 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 10.5S 85.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 10.5S 85.7E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 11.5S 87.2E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 12.9S 90.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=================
The system continues its rapid intensification within oceanic and atmospheric favorable environmental conditions. During the last 6 hours, deep convection remained near the center. 85ghz microwaves images of 0033z and 0351z, and visible imagery suggest an improvement of the pattern, with a better defined eye. However, on the last infrared images, a slight deterioration of the cloud structure, with the disappearance of warm spot. The compact system, benefits from a good upper level divergence especially on the polar side.

Emeraude track is still bending northwestward. The system should orientate its track progressively eastward under the steering flow of a near equatorial ridge building in its northeast. From Friday, global models are not in agreement on its evolution due to the presence of several potential steering flow. The current forecast is based on a mean track between the main numerical models, especially on GFS, which is intermediate between UKMO and the EURO.

On this trajectory, environmental conditions will remain mostly conducive during the forecast period. Friday, an increase of the north northeasterly shear may limit the intensity of the system. Given the small size of the system, rapid variation (including rapid intensification and rapid decay) are likely bringing uncertainties in the intensity forecast.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 14U
4:23 PM EST March 16 2016
===============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 16.6S 141.1E or 135 km south southwest of Kowanyama and 105 km north northeast of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

The low has moved rapidly eastwards during the day and is now close to the coast. It is no longer expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding may still develop between Kowanyama and Karumba later today.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS: 16.5S 141.8E - (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.3S 142.1E - (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.3S 143.5E - (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 14.7S 145.9E - (Tropical Low)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
The TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING between Karumba and Cape Keerweer has been CANCELLED.
Quoting 160. CaribBoy:




Hello mate it's been a while

I gotta tell you I got a strong feeling this upcoming season will be the one for the Caribbean and GOM
168. elioe
Good morning! Finally the bulk of Foehn wind is here.



Main road 3, Tampere/Lakalaiva (Finland)
Temperature: air +5.4, road surface +10.8 C

...and steadily still rising as it's not even astronomical midday. Let the cycling season 2016 begin!
Good Morning; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 16 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 18 2016

...Strong frontal system will continue crossing the eastern states...

...Low pressure expected to develop over the Upper Midwest...

A cold front will continue tracking eastward across the eastern U.S. on
Wednesday before exiting the East Coast by late Wednesday night. Warm
weather is expected ahead of this front across the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s, with perhaps a few
record highs possible. The temperature change behind the front is
expected to be gradual, with noticeably cooler conditions arriving by the
end of the week. High pressure will continue building over the western
U.S. and result in less precipitation over this region compared to recent
days with just a few scattered snow showers over some of the higher
mountain ranges.

Over the Upper Midwest, a low pressure area at the northern end of the
front is forecast to intensify into a fairly significant storm system with
widespread rain expected from eastern Iowa to Michigan. On the northern
side of this low, several inches of snow is possible across northern
Minnesota and extending towards Lake Superior through Wednesday afternoon.
Windy conditions are also expected to develop in the vicinity of the
surface low with a strong pressure gradient in place.




170. MahFL
Quoting 168. elioe:

Let the cycling season 2016 begin!


Do you have a hidden electric motor in YOUR cycle ?
And the current doppler for the upper mid-west, convective outlook, and storm reports from yesterday:


Central Great Lakes sector loop



yesterday Reports Graphic

And finally the temperature differentials for today and current (watches); none so far which is a good thing: very cool and cold in most of the Western Half of Conus today with snow across the board into the Great Lakes region.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast DatabaseValid WW Image

And here are the two storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean:

176. MahFL
Current Day 1 SPC Outlook :

OK I've got about 2.5 inches of rain off this event here in SE Columbia County. I've looked at the radar totals though and it looks like parts of northern Columbia county, SE Marquette county,and SW Green Lake county got up to 5 inches of rain. That is going to do wonders with the Fox river up there.
At the border of Columbia county and Dodge county in Wisconsin, just northeast of Madison. Wild low pressure system spinning over, with almost tropical rain all night and thunder and lightening galore. Winds sustained pretty good right now as this low that's caused so much tornado damage and large hail yesterday through Illinois finally spins out of here. Easily 1.5-2.5 inch rain totals through much of Southern and South Central Wisconsin last night.
Live in the same area Geo. Tropical like rains all night with a lot of thunder and lightening. Low is wild, low level clouds quickly flowing by as they follow the low. Winds still howling at 20-30 mph. Lots of Southern and South Central Wisconsin easily got 1.5-2.5 inches of rain from this low that rapidly intensified and caused some very nasty super cells through Illinois yesterday.
Will be around 85 degrees today and around 80 tomorrow before temps start to drop again, if only I weren't so busy I'd take the time to enjoy it.
Another day plowing the Veggie Garden..as the compost has to be infused today before those rains return tonight thru Saturday.

Thankfully the next storm Tonight thru Saturday is only gonna drop 1.5-3 inch totals.


I-10 at the Sabine River is now OPEN @ the Texas/La. border.



By Juan Sanchez
Thousands of homes damaged, recovery efforts to begin after historic flooding in Louisiana
Published 1:26 PM


The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said an initial report from parishes affected by flooding indicates more than 4,958 homes have received flood damage. The record flooding this week has forced people out of their homes.

“Our first goal is to help our local partners through the response phase of this event,” said GOHSEP Director James Waskom. “We will begin to transition into the recovery phase as conditions improve."

GOHSEP said the initial number does not include entire regions of the state still responding to flood-related emergencies. Federal, state and local officials are working together to help all those affected.

"We have been working with FEMA for the past several days in an effort to streamline the disaster assessment process that will ultimately determine what level of federal support will be available for individuals, parishes and state agencies dealing with flood," Waskom said.

Related: How to contact your parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness

But the threat of flooding is still present in some areas. In eastern St. Tammany Parish and areas along the Pearl River, local officials are warning residents to make plans as the river continues rising.

Elsewhere in the state, the National Weather Service said there is the potential for severe weather Sunday night in northwestern Louisiana. Many roads and neighborhoods remain flooded.

Residents and visitors should use caution in areas where floodwaters remain. Information about road closures can be found on the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development's website.

Updates on the recovery effort will be released by GOHSEP. Stay with WDSU-TV and WDSU.com as information is released.

Glad I decided not to head to Spfld last night, had a return to make to Lowe's and thought might see if brother wanted to go to 3A Super Sectional (Elite 8) and watch #1 team in state play. Heard kicked Spfld into torcon 4 yesterday morning, so decided against going. About 5:30 thought I should have, but by 7 glad I hadn't. Game was delayed half an hour after halftime as that warned cell passed through area. Heard Loami mentioned, where my folks moved outside of a few years back, and have already dodged 2 barely. They said not much there, but could see it N of them around I-72. S of Macomb, one went through area some of wife's relatives are from. Just glad this didn't have more moisture to work with, or could have been far worse.

Going to be very windy around here next few days. Kilts may be flying up in Dogtown tomorrow:) We're currently at 48 w/ 41 dew pt and wind chill, back up to 29.84" & 30+ gusts from W. Say we may get some in 40s later.
Here are the current flood advisories for the South and high winds advisories for the Upper Mid-West from the Noaa page:


This was from 3/13, off of an island in Washington State..
Quoting 167. wunderkidcayman:



Hello mate it's been a while

I gotta tell you I got a strong feeling this upcoming season will be the one for the Caribbean and GOM


LOL, you say that every year:)
189. elioe
Quoting 170. MahFL:



Do you have a hidden electric motor in YOUR cycle ?


Nope
190. LRC
This is a very fine scientific discussion article except IMO it falls into a trap of deciding if any particular instance is a result of climate change. Let us first start with 2 definitions:
climate
1)the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.
2)a region with particular prevailing weather conditions.

butterfly effect
A phenomenon in which a small perturbation in the initial condition of a system results in large changes in later conditions. Such phenomena are common in complex dynamical systems and are studied in chaos theory.

Now we need to decide if changing conditions in the earth's environment can change weather.
Are average temperatures rising globally over the last 100+ years and will they continue to do so?
Is the Arctic losing its multiyear ice and is the annual minimum getting less over the long period of time?
Are there ozone holes and do they affect weather?
Are the Greenland Ice Sheets and the West Antarctic Ice sheets melting?
Are the Jet Streams changing?
Are some of the Ocean currents changing?
Then apply these following questions to the previous:
Can we prove that each of these points have occurred and are not just a temporary blip, but will continue on and possible continue to change?
Do these points affect weather?
If you can say yes then you can prove that climate is changing. If you can prove climate is changing then it does not matter if current weather patterns have been seen a million times over the last 2000 years, what we are experiencing today is the result of climate change. How can we know this? The butterfly effect proves that even small changes over time and area effects everything.
Too much time and energy is wasted on the big effects. It is the very small effects that in the end have the biggest impact. Small rises in temperatures. Small changes in rainfall. Small changes in the cryosphere. As long as these continue to change we will be having climate change and if the climate is changing that has to mean weather is changing and if that is happening every weather event must be the result of climate change.
Wxrisk.com SUMMARY -- SUNDAY/MONDAY looks stormy. The Middle levels of the atmosphere are screaming -- " watch out there COULD be several inches of snow for central/ eastern VA up to DCA into lower MD eastern shore / southern NJ >..."

Sigh.....
Quoting 187. Skyepony:

This was from 3/13, off of an island in Washington State..



That would have been a good day to cancel the ferry service.
Quoting 192. Sfloridacat5:



That would have been a good day to cancel the ferry service.
Yeah, don't think I'd want to be on that boat. It looks like the cars in front might have had their engines flooded by that and I can only imagine the electrical and cosmetic damage if that's salt water. Not a good day.
Quoting 187. Skyepony:

This was from 3/13, off of an island in Washington State..



That's nuts! Having a wave completely wash over your car with salt water? Ummm....surely not good for it? And then whoever is in the Escalade, mashing the brake, after that wave...see the brake light come on? No thanks on the front row seat. Looks like the ferry was really pitching about after getting all that water on board before it drained off the deck somewhere.
Is there really no candidate better than Trump or Clinton? Truth be told I don t like either of them, bad time ahead for America.
The only time I'll tune into TWC this summer if a hurricane threatens the U.S is if they play the old storm alert music.It made you feel that a significant storm was about to bear down on you and you were in trouble.
Quoting 191. washingtonian115:

Wxrisk.com SUMMARY -- SUNDAY/MONDAY looks stormy. The Middle levels of the atmosphere are screaming -- " watch out there COULD be several inches of snow for central/ eastern VA up to DCA into lower MD eastern shore / southern NJ >..."

Sigh.....
-_- Blizzard with thundersnow or I want spring back.
198. OKsky
Quoting 190. LRC:

This is a very fine scientific discussion article except IMO it falls into a trap of deciding if any particular instance is a result of climate change. Let us first start with 2 definitions:
climate
1)the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.
2)a region with particular prevailing weather conditions.

butterfly effect
A phenomenon in which a small perturbation in the initial condition of a system results in large changes in later conditions. Such phenomena are common in complex dynamical systems and are studied in chaos theory.

Now we need to decide if changing conditions in the earth's environment can change weather.
Are average temperatures rising globally over the last 100+ years and will they continue to do so?
Is the Arctic losing its multiyear ice and is the annual minimum getting less over the long period of time?
Are there ozone holes and do they affect weather?
Are the Greenland Ice Sheets and the West Antarctic Ice sheets melting?
Are the Jet Streams changing?
Are some of the Ocean currents changing?
Then apply these following questions to the previous:
Can we prove that each of these points have occurred and are not just a temporary blip, but will continue on and possible continue to change?
Do these points affect weather?
If you can say yes then you can prove that climate is changing. If you can prove climate is changing then it does not matter if current weather patterns have been seen a million times over the last 2000 years, what we are experiencing today is the result of climate change. How can we know this? The butterfly effect proves that even small changes over time and area effects everything.
Too much time and energy is wasted on the big effects. It is the very small effects that in the end have the biggest impact. Small rises in temperatures. Small changes in rainfall. Small changes in the cryosphere. As long as these continue to change we will be having climate change and if the climate is changing that has to mean weather is changing and if that is happening every weather event must be the result of climate change.


A warming planet will have more energy stored, which will affect the weather, because thermodynamics ...no matter how many butterflies flap their wings. I always thought chaos theory showed off how irrelevant scale is, but since im not a rockstar mathematician working at jurrasic park.. i could be wrong about that. :)
Looks like another snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast Sunday into Monday of next week. The models are shifting the system closer to the coast and additional adjustments to the west may be possible with the Greenland blocking in place.
clipped from the National Park Service page..................................The fossil record provides clues not only to past climates, but also illustrates how animals, plants, and ecosystems responded to changes. Over time, all three components of ecosystems change: the underlying geologic landscape, the climate, and the communities of organisms that live there. Living things are adapted to a particular "comfort zone" of landscape, climate, and community. When conditions change outside of their comfort zone, animals or plants must migrate to more favorable conditions, adapt to the changes, or they will not survive. Fossils record these responses. They also provide clues for changes happening now and in the near future.

As climate continues to change, all living things—including humans—will face these same options: move to a more hospitable location, adapt to the changes, or face extinction. Unlike during past periods of natural climate change, there are now more than 6.8 billion humans living on Earth. Our expanding and immobile infrastructure of cities, transportation corridors, agricultural fields, and dammed rivers, has altered the landscapes within and between ecosystems. This infrastructure creates barriers to populations of animals and plants attempting to travel in response to climate changes. Evolution and adaptation requires lots of time. However, climate change is expected to be very rapid. Barnosky and Kraatz (2007) suggest that the rate of climatic change over the next 100 years will likely be faster than rates experienced by mammals over their Cenozoic evolutionary history. As climate warms, both local and global extinctions will reduce the diversity of life found on Earth.

Because global warming is very likely human-caused, that means there could be a human-powered solution! Humans are the only living things that can mitigate the coming changes. For more information about how national parks are responding to climate change and what YOU can do to help, visit the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program.
It wanted to be spring in winter and now it wants to be winter into Spring.Sorry nature,you can't have your cake and eat it too.I noticed more people at my local bar/restaurant this afternoon because of not only the warm temps and sunshine but also because some didn't go into work today with metro being shut down and all.No more snow nature as I'am ready to enjoy my 70 degree days.
Quoting 196. washingtonian115:

The only time I'll tune into TWC this summer if a hurricane threatens the U.S is if they play the old storm alert music.It made you feel that a significant storm was about to bear down on you and you were in trouble.


I remember the ominous tune they played. TWC however is not same as when John Hope was there in the 90s. He had a calmness about him and much credibility.

I don't think I will tune into TWC this year as the local 'experts' would have a better view of things if there is a direct threat without the sensationalism..
What are the snow amounts looking like from the Euro for the Sunday night into Monday snowstorm?
Southwest Regional Airport on the southeast side of Fort Myers is up to 87 degrees. It's definitely warm outside today.
Quoting 206. Sfloridacat5:

Southwest Regional Airport on the east side of Fort Myers is up to 87 degrees. It's definitely warm outside today.

        & nbsp; We are supposed to,top out at 87 here as well, currently 76(11:49).
Quoting 201. LargoFl:

Because global warming is very likely human-caused, that means there could be a human-powered solution! Humans are the only living things that can mitigate the coming changes. For more information about how national parks are responding to climate change and what YOU can do to help, visit the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program.


Link
Quoting 205. YankeMike22:

What are the snow amounts looking like from the Euro for the Sunday night into Monday snowstorm?


Around 6 inches for the immediate DC area.
Thanks Drakoen. Actually, I just saw the snow map. I'm on Long Island, and it looks like around 8 to 10 inches here, with 12 to 18 inch amounts from CT into ME. It definitely looks like a storm that bears watching!
Good evening, folks. Umm, times are too busy for continuous weather reporting right now. But here some mixed news from Iceland Review:

Arctic Science Committee to Move to Akureyri
By Vala Hafstad Sci & Tech about 3 hours agoUpdated: March 16, 2016 16:49

Like Hot Weather? Go to North Iceland
By Páll Stefánsson Nature & Travel March 14, 2016 12:56Updated: March 15, 2016 13:29
Yesterday, an Icelandic heat record for the first 26 days of March was broken in the northernmost town of Iceland, Siglufjörður, when the temperature reached almost 18°C (65°F), mbl.is reports.
The second warmest town in Europe yesterday was Alicante, southern Spain, with 16°C (61°F).
Yesterday, the temperature in Athens, Greece, reached 8°C (46°F), as in London and Stockholm. The temperature in Berlin was 5°C (41°F), and it was only 1°C (34°F) in Moscow. ​


Fast and Furious Iceberg Scares Horse to Death
By Vala Hafstad Society March 14, 2016 15:39
Quoting 209. Xulonn:

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:




I say the transition will happen a lot quicker and the strength of the La Niña will be stronger
Climate change, energy is back on EU summit agenda - draft
Source: Reuters - Wed, 16 Mar 2016 12:28 GMT
BRUSSELS, March 16 (Reuters) - EU leaders meeting in Brussels this week will debate the Paris Agreement on climate change, a draft EU text showed, after officials previously said the migrant crisis had knocked it off the agenda.
EU officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said European Council President Donald Tusk, who will chair the summit, had spent a week negotiating a compromise text that they believed the big member states would agree on.
The text, seen by Reuters, "underlines the need for the European Union and its member states to be able to ratify the Paris Agreement as soon as possible".
It also says the EU is committed to a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions domestically by at least 40 percent by 2030, as agreed at political level in October 2014. ...

Whole article see link above.

Ethiopia to increase emergency drought appeal as hunger spreads
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 15 Mar 2016 14:45 GMT
... The appeal is the third largest in the world after those for Syria and Yemen, and about half the $1.4 billion has been raised.
The number of farmers urgently needing seeds to plant during the rainy season has risen to 3.3 million from 2.2 million in December, and drought-affected people excluded from the December appeal have also been seeking food aid, the United Nations said. ...


Heat wave sets multiple records in Deep South
March 15, 2016
ATLANTA (AP) – A heat wave that sent the mercury soaring to above 90 degrees in March has broken temperature records from Texas to Georgia.
The National Weather Service says temperature records fell across the Deep South on Tuesday, and the region has more warm weather in store before a cool-down begins. ...


Mexico City alarm bells ring over worst air pollution in a decade
Mexico City's government has advised people to stay indoors and restricted traffic due to air pollution. Ozone levels have been measured at nearly twice the acceptable limit, triggering the first alert in over a decade.
DW, March 15, 2016

China to release water from dam to alleviate SE Asia drought
Source: Reuters - Tue, 15 Mar 2016 11:08 GMT

Unusual bird sightings delight watchers but bely threats
South for the winter, north for the summer - that's the migration pattern for many birds. This behavior is changing - to the delight of birdwatchers. But what does it mean for our feathered friends?
DW, March 16, 2016
Quoting 208. opal92nwf:


Link
thank you Opal.
Almost to forecast of 62 in S C IL, now 61. Very dry air blowing in on the almost 40 gusts, only 28 dew pt. Press is up to 29.89".

Spotter saw tornado E of New Berlin, one parents must have seen N of them, it then damaged a home & barn closer to W side of Spfld, then funnel sighted over Spfld, all just before 8 p.m. No injuries, but farmer still trying to locate animals that escaped (hopefully) from barn. One witness described hardly any wind until right on top of them. Parents said hardly blew or rained while watching it as well.
Sure there isn't any GW as it has been a quite cool March for my place in Germany so far ;-) But wait:


From Severe Weather Europe.Temperature anomaly over Europe in the first half of March with 1981-2010 baseline. Eastern half of Europe was 2-6 °C warmer than average and W Europe was 1-4 °C colder. Note also the 3-6 °C below average temperatures in NW Africa!
Map: Weatherbell


Haven't seen this for quite a while: huge warmth anomaly ahead for Greenland the next days (it used to be a cold spot the last - let's say - two years, whenever I looked at it).

Source.
The European, Canadian and GFS model all suggest the D.C. area will have some snow, but the European suggests the low will track closer to the coast and forecasts heavier snow for a longer duration.

Maybe if we ignore it,it'll go away?
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:

The European, Canadian and GFS model all suggest the D.C. area will have some snow, but the European suggests the low will track closer to the coast and forecasts heavier snow for a longer duration.
Maybe if we ignore it,it'll go away?

Hear, hear. Enough of snow this year for you, Washi? :-)
Quoting 219. barbamz:


Hear, hear. Enough of snow this year for you, Washi? :-)
Aw yes! I have gotten accustomed now to the 70 and 80 degree weather.I thought I'd slide a early tan in.I've been out in the garden and my rose bushes and the cherry blossom tree in front of my house have been blooming and are busting out the seems now.I'm pretty scared for them now with all this bipolar weather.

Aarrgh! I just denied GW (post #217, lol), and when I visited the live webcam of my town Mainz afterwards, the cruel bill was right there ... Although it's chilly outside: Giant spider alert over our cathedral! I live adjacent to it! Shudder.
NYC Metro area in about 4-5 days.....................................
I was finally able to compile a preliminary analysis on the Oceanic NINO Index going back to 1865 by utilizing 26 SST, Reanalysis, & Satellite datasets with some initial quality control (particularly from 1891-1950). I anticipate several revisions and additions to this index over the coming months and years...

Overall, an appreciable warming signal in the tropical Pacific since the mid-late 19th century is particularly evident, especially in the NINO 3.4 region, where the 26 dataset mean indicates a linear warming rate of approximately 0.2C per century in the 30-year sliding base periods that are used to calculate the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), whereas since World War II the rate of warming has approximately tripled to 0.6C per century...


According to this index, the 2015-16 El Nino was the strongest NINO on record w/ a maximum ONI value of +2.56C in NDJ and it was in "Super" NINO (Hansen 2006) territory for several months, with the ranking data suggesting that the incumbent El Nino was already a super event last June (Super NINOs, as noted in the subsequent text files, were defined as ENSO events which exceeded the upper half of the 1st decile (i.e. >/= 95th percentile or approximately equating to the top 5 highest and lowest ENSO rankings)).
ENS-ONI Tri-Monthly Rankings (1991-Present). The ENS-ONI index reached its 2nd highest value on record for DJF this past month, only eclipsed by the 1877-78 Super NINO.
Maroon=Super El Nino
Red=Strong El Nino
Orange=Moderate El Nino
Yellow-Orange= Weak El Nino
Plain Text=Neutral ENSO
Very Light Blue=Weak La Nina
Light Blue=Moderate La Nina
Blue=Strong La Nina
Dark Blue=Super La Nina


However, if one accounts for not only the obvious uncertainties in the SST data, but the modern warming rate of the NINO 3.4 region, 1877-78 & 1997-98 super NINOs may eventually reclaim the top spots once the new 30-year sliding base periods become available.

Here are the raw, standardized, & ranking files to the ENS-ONI
Raw: Link
Standardized: Link
Rankings: Link

Standardized ENS-ONI Timeseries (1865-DJF 2016)

Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

Aw yes! I have gotten accustomed now to the 70 and 80 degree weather.I thought I'd slide a early tan in.I've been out in the garden and my rose bushes and the cherry blossom tree in front of my house have been blooming and are busting out the seems now.I'm pretty scared for them now with all this bipolar weather.

The small rose bushes on my large downtown roof-balcony already got a lot of green leaves as well due to the very warm months of winter. Now, in this cold spell of March, I have to cover them with protecting sheets during the nights.
Wow SST'S are BOILING for this time of year off of the U.S. East Coast!!!
Another Environmentalist Was Murdered In Honduras And Activists Are Enraged

Link
Just wanted to post some positive CO2 news. Best of luck to these scientists

Could houses soon be built using CARBON DIOXIDE? CO2ncrete building material is made with gas captured from power plants
Process takes lime and combines it with carbon dioxide to make material
The new building material, CO2ncrete, is made with 3D printers
So far the construction material has only been produced at a lab scale
Next step is to scale it up to make it ten times bigger and put it to the test




A team of researchers at UCLA has been working on a unique solution that may help eliminate greenhouse gases coming from power plants. Its plan is to create a process of capturing carbon from the gasses emitted from the plants, and using it to create a new building material

Read more at Link
Scribbler posts another fine one -

The Choice Before us is Urgent: Sans a Swift Switch to Renewables, Dangerous Climate Change May Be Imminent

The world right now is facing some very serious challenges.

Link
225. tiggerhurricanes2001
Not good if you want a positive atlantic tripole for the hurricane season.

227. justmehouston
9:08 PM GMT on March 16, 2016
3 +

Just wanted to post some positive CO2 news. Best of luck to these scientists

Amen brother.

Joe Romm put one up today about our flat electric output . The death of Edison's light bulb is showing up in our demand.

The LED revolution is working .

Surging Renewables Keep Global CO2 Flat As Economy Grows

Link

Click to enlarge. Spiderless moony current webcam view from southern Germany at the slopes of the Alps. Source and more. Good night with this, everyone!
231. barbamz

America loves you .
Saw something about someone working on a way to convert CO2 to a fuel too justmehouston. Haven't heard how the pump to algae vats has been going lately either. Any way we can use excess can't hurt.

Gusts now back down in mid 30s in S C IL, everything else about same as earlier. Forgot to mention we broke 12 hr sunlight mark today. Everyone have a great St. Paddy's! Taking a couple days off and heading down to StL's Irish neighborhood, Dogtown, just SW of Forest Park & NW of the Hill, an Italian neighborhood w/ great restaurants & home of Yogi Berra & Joe Garagiola. They always have their parade on the 17th. Erin Go Bragh!
Quoting 233. dabirds:

Saw something about someone working on a way to convert CO2 to a fuel too justmehouston. Haven't heard how the pump to algae vats has been going lately either. Any way we can use excess can't hurt.

Gusts now back down in mid 30s in S C IL, everything else about same as earlier. Forgot to mention we broke 12 hr sunlight mark today. Everyone have a great St. Paddy's! Taking a couple days off and heading down to StL's Irish neighborhood, Dogtown, just SW of Forest Park & NW of the Hill, an Italian neighborhood w/ great restaurants & home of Yogi Berra & Joe Garagiola. They always have their parade on the 17th. Erin Go Bragh!


I'll have to search around but a few years ago my nephew was writing a paper on scientists using carbon to build this "net" kind of rope that could be used in raising rockets up in to the atmosphere and then launched into orbit. It was being studied as a use to transport items between earth and the international space station as well.

We have many brilliant minds in the world and I have hope that we can develop new technology and processes to mitigate some CO2 damage.
236. vis0

Quoting 227. justmehouston:

Just wanted to post some positive CO2 news. Best of luck to these scientists

Could houses soon be built using CARBON DIOXIDE? CO2ncrete building material is made with gas captured from power plants
Process takes lime and combines it with carbon dioxide to make material
The new building material, CO2ncrete, is made with 3D printers
So far the construction material has only been produced at a lab scale
Next step is to scale it up to make it ten times bigger and put it to the test




A team of researchers at UCLA has been working on a unique solution that may help eliminate greenhouse gases coming from power plants. Its plan is to create a process of capturing carbon from the gasses emitted from the plants, and using it to create a new building material

Read more at Link
1st send the 3D printing machines with robots to Mars.
2nd use robots to put together these prefabricated homes.
3rd  Some years later add water via space ships that are meant to break up into Mars releasing water..
4th Allow to simmer and we turn Mars into a greenhouse in a few hundred years.

(vis0 being shaken by a neighbors) WAKE UP vis0, yer having another zilly dream!

On the real side, anything that can remove the CO2 from from its continuing ascent  is a plus ...as long as nothing worse is created.
Riverside 88F, Indian Hills PWS 85.2F Down the hill at my place it is 84.2F.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
ECMWF ensembles have good odds (50-70%) for conversational snowfall (3-6") from DC to NYC to Boston --> Mon-Tues
239. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (product shown is a custom filtered version of their products)
D&T:: 201603160900u_162200u
AREA:: COnUS s
NOTE1:: watch as MamaNana changes the fuel cell (Fronts feed) on the LOW over the Great Lakes.
NOTE2:: colourkey not official.
ImgLand.net image

Anyone remember me saying watch as at first (last few decades) we see Global Climate Schizo, as i suddenly 250 yr droughts/drier then suddenly a 250 yr flood/wet, then too hot then too cold within weeks while riding the upward temperature trend?...no?!?. no one remembers...oh well.

so i see many focusing on the wxmodels getting closer together as to a cc-spinner off the  east coast, i blame it on EDT : - P .
The tree that is below my Apt (was almost ruined by so called professional tree cutters...
(cut 40%, over an 9 day period, came back 3 times to cut more, and the 3rd time was 4 days AFTER the big NE snowfall a few weeks ago, why? )
...of its limbs though it was healthy. They said it was to prevent snow accumulations but once one walked 2 blocks in either direction no BIG tree were touched. This tree has (with the help of birds and critters) pollinated tree for at least a mile around as in 1972 this tree was the only one that blossomed in certain colours and now 80% of the trees within a mile has this trees "look/colours".
Had at least 6 nests (all removed by cutters)over 8 varieties of birds (well lets see how less limbs goes with sharing amongst the birds, in now having less space to claim)
Is the weather underground experiencing hiccups today? I can't get it to load the local weather, the wheel of death keeps spinning and spinning, and it took a couple of tries to get into the blog. Just sayin". :-(
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

Aw yes! I have gotten accustomed now to the 70 and 80 degree weather.I thought I'd slide a early tan in.I've been out in the garden and my rose bushes and the cherry blossom tree in front of my house have been blooming and are busting out the seems now.I'm pretty scared for them now with all this bipolar weather.


Forecast lows this weekend are above 28F and everything that is growing now should be okay except maybe those big pink magnolias. Those always seem to bloom and then freeze. I was worried about my peas earlier but never got a chance to transplant them and anyway they would have been fine,, threshold of problems for them is also about 28F. I have my first peach flowers today but those are hardy to 25F.
I have vacation from work accrued ....anybody want to go with me in search of sar?
I miss his stories
Quoting 238. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
ECMWF ensembles have good odds (50-70%) for conversational snowfall (3-6") from DC to NYC to Boston --> Mon-Tues
Looks like it will be some Spring Snow lol.
Quoting 242. justmehouston:

I have vacation from work accrued ....anybody want to go with me in search of sar?
I miss his stories


What can you tell me about any severe thunderstorm prospects for SE Texas this weekend, justmehouston?
Euro shows about 10-11 inches of snow for the D.C area...I put my snow shovel back in the shed and most of the winter coats are put up.I can't tell the children because their little hearts will be broken.
Link
Quoting 245. pureet1948:



What can you tell me about any severe thunderstorm prospects for SE Texas this weekend, justmehouston?


To be honest, havent really looked or thought about it.
Will have to check it out, pretty sure that we will be fine though
Just noticed the ITCZ in Central Africa, which will move northward over the next few months, is looking rather plump.
Quoting 247. justmehouston:



To be honest, havent really looked or thought about it.
Will have to check it out, pretty sure that we will be fine though


let me know when you've looked at it. Kinda important to me.
Quoting 242. justmehouston:

I have vacation from work accrued ....anybody want to go with me in search of sar?
I miss his stories


Some basic information was given by Sar. His town, which he talked about during one of the recent outbreaks. His dog's name. He's former law enforcement. Worried something may have happened. He was 70 or so. Glad Gro's still here. Sar loved WU, he wouldn't just willingly walk away. If you try and track him down I wish you good luck!
The Minnesota Arrowhead? Never heard that one before. I'm assuming that is what they call the Minnesota shoreline of Lake Superior? Interesting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

MNZ012-020-021-170745-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160317T1200Z/
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISABELLA...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...
GRAND MARAIS
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...INCLUDING TWO HARBORS...
SILVER BAY...ISABELLA...LUTSEN...GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrowhead_Region  ; ;   once again a function of this site is broken. This link thing hasn't worked for awhile. What gives.... What is next?
You are correct Trent. Check your Wumail too.
I've found that the 's' in https causes issues with embedding images.
Quoting 250. DeepSeaRising:



Some basic information was given by Sar. His town, which he talked about during one of the recent outbreaks. His dog's name. He's former law enforcement. Worried something may have happened. He was 70 or so. Glad Gro's still here. Sar loved WU, he wouldn't just willingly walk away. If you try and track him down I wish you good luck!


Same here. Actually just checking in to see if he's back
Quoting 251. wxgeek723:

The Minnesota Arrowhead? Never heard that one before. I'm assuming that is what they call the Minnesota shoreline of Lake Superior? Interesting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

MNZ012-020-021-170745-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160317T1200Z/
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISABELLA...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...
GRAND MARAIS
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...INCLUDING TWO HARBORS...
SILVER BAY...ISABELLA...LUTSEN...GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE.


That is what we call it locally. It generally runs east from Duluth to I' Falls with about highway 53. If you draw a line it looks like an indian (native american) arrowhead.

On the weather front snowing at a decent clip, I guess winter is not done yet but it is to early let your guard down around here even with a nice winter thanks to el nino
Thanks for this blog updating the latest on the latest thinking regarding this x>y "causality." Saved the colorful graphic because I think it is important to remember what the graphic does not show as well as what it shows. Admiral Titley's analogy is great and shows his understanding of weather as caused by the interactions that sometimes come out one way and other times other ways.

In another way of looking at the relationship between weather and climate,
if X = climate change (of whatever cause)
and Y = weather event(s)
then, Y causes X, not vice versa.
Quoting 249. pureet1948:



let me know when you've looked at it. Kinda important to me.



Have you read your local NWS discussion and forecast? That's the best source of information.
Quoting 228. RobertWC:

Scribbler posts another fine one -

The Choice Before us is Urgent: Sans a Swift Switch to Renewables, Dangerous Climate Change May Be Imminent

The world right now is facing some very serious challenges.

Link
Just turn off all your lights and live in the Dark & ride a horse!
Fun new toy for discerning the center..

EMERAUDE
Looks like Rapid Intensification in progress..


Quoting 259. gulfbreeze:

Just turn off all your lights and live in the Dark & ride a horse!


Or you know, be proactive and practical. Move to a smaller home, or a place that uses hydro electric power, or drive a hybrid, or buy local food, or eat less meat, or change your light bulbs, or turn off the lights, or install better windows in your home, or install quality insulation, or ride your bike to work, or walk to the store, or car pool, or take mass transit, or buy used clothes/items, or avoid flying, or buy carbon credits, or buy products with environmental consciousness, or install tankless water heaters, or invest in renewable tech stocks, or, or, or.... seriously it's not hard to do something.

Trying to imply you can either do nothing or have to do everything and live in the dark ages is neither honest nor fair. While it won't solve global climate change, I see nothing wrong with the death by a million paper cuts in lieu of governmental action. All I know is whenever I face the generation to come I will be able to say I did everything I possibly could to fight climate change. It will be interesting to see what our collective society will say. I wonder what excuses they/we will develop.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Storm Name: 06R

2016MAR17 033000 5.0 974.1 +4.1 90.0 5.0 5.8 6.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -34.86 -78.63 EYE -99 IR 62.2 -10.54 -84.32


Raw Dvorak: 6.4
Dvorak Intensity: 5.0
Wrote a blog. UCAR modeled the Zika potential threat for this summer across 50 US cities. Florida did not so well.
Emeraude captured by Meteosat7


Largest Increase In CO2 Levels In 56 Years Happened In 2015
March 16th, 2016 by Joshua S. Hill


The largest increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels happened in 2015, when it jumped by 3.05 parts per million, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Mauna Loa Observatory is a premier atmospheric research facility that has been continuously monitoring and collecting data related to atmospheric change since the 1950’s.
The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii reported the unprecedented spike in CO2 levels this week, which was the largest year-to-year increase ever observed in the 56 years of recording and research done at the station. To make matters worse, in another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 grew more than 2 parts per million (ppm), according to Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.

“Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.”

The figures paint a dramatic tale: In February 2016, the average global atmospheric CO2 level was 402.59 ppm. Prior to the year 1800, atmospheric CO2 averaged around 280 ppm. Scientific research has concluded that the last time the Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 increase was between 17,000 and 11,000 years ago — and even then, CO2 levels only increased by 80 ppm. Today’s rate of increase is 200 times faster.


The figures determined by the Mauna Loa Observatory were also independently measured by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California.

According to NOAA, despite the scary growth trends, this current jump in CO2 levels “is partially due to the current El Niño weather pattern,” mirrored by the last previous big increase which occurred in 1998, and was also a strong El Niño year.

Quoted by Climate Central, Michael Mann, an atmospheric science professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said that the CO2 milestone shouldn’t be over-interpreted.

“This spike is almost certainly due in substantial part to the ongoing El Niño event, which is a fleeting effect that increases carbon dioxide concentrations temporarily,” Mann said. “Carbon dioxide concentrations are a lagging indicator, and they don’t accurately reflect recent trends in the more important variable — our actual carbon emissions.”
Quoting 258. Bucsboltsfan:



Have you read your local NWS discussion and forecast? That's the best source of information.


That's just it, Bucsboltsfan. I did read it and they seem to be a little bit vague about what real threat, if any, this new system poses to the area. I'm sure it's not going help the flood situation in far SE TX and LA, though. Accuweather's engaging in a little bit of doomcasting, I'm afraid. In short, nothing I'm finding on the web is helpful. So, I'm hoping y'all can be a tad more helpful, that's all. OK?
Edison did not invent the light bulb. He just improved his design. H. Davy is credited with the first light bulb design.
Edison is a joke, never really invented anything! He just stole designs from people he worked with.
If Tesla was still alive, he would tell the truth. Can't believe they still teach this in history class.
"Just one of many deals with Edison."
Tesla was offered the task of completely redesigning the Edison Company's direct current generators. In 1885, he said that he could redesign Edison's inefficient motor and generators, making an improvement in both service and economy. According to Tesla, Edison remarked, "There's fifty thousand dollars in it for you%u2014if you can do it."[44] [16]:64 This has been noted as an odd statement from an Edison whose company was stingy with pay and who did not have that sort of cash on hand.[45] After months of work, Tesla fulfilled the task and inquired about payment. Edison, saying that he was only joking, replied, "Tesla, you don't understand our American humor."[16]:64 [46] Instead, Edison offered a US$10 a week raise over Tesla's US$18 per week salary; Tesla refused the offer and immediately resigned

Also on the weather front, had to finally turn on the yard sprinklers as our "elNino" winter is on pause.



Quoting 230. RobertWC:

227. justmehouston
9:08 PM GMT on March 16, 2016
3

Just wanted to post some positive CO2 news. Best of luck to these scientists

Amen brother.

Joe Romm put one up today about our flat electric output . The death of Edison's light bulb is showing up in our demand.

The LED revolution is working .

Surging Renewables Keep Global CO2 Flat As Economy Grows

Link
That is a term used by the local people. I grew up in northern Wisconsin, and heard it frequently.


Quoting 251. wxgeek723:

The Minnesota Arrowhead? Never heard that one before. I'm assuming that is what they call the Minnesota shoreline of Lake Superior? Interesting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

MNZ012-020-021-170745-
/O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160317T1200Z/
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISABELLA...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...
GRAND MARAIS
438 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...INCLUDING TWO HARBORS...
SILVER BAY...ISABELLA...LUTSEN...GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EMERAUDE (06-20152016)
10:00 AM RET March 17 2016
===============================
Southeast of Diego Garcia

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Emeraude (946 hPa) located at 10.6S 84.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 25 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 10.6S 84.1E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 10.7S 84.8E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 11.4S 87.6E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 12.7S 89.1E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
The satellite and microwave presentation has clearly improved at the end of the night. The eye has warmed into a very cold central dense overcast in infrared channel. The last SSMIS data of 0142 UTC show the progressive building outside convective band around the central dense overcast, that may predict the beginning of a eyewall replacement cycle.

Emeraude seems to be quite stationary on the very last satellite imagery, and should turn gradually eastwards under the steering flow of a near equatorial ridge building in its northeast. During the weekend, the track should turn southwards then southwestwards as a subtropical ridge should gradually build south of the system. Global models are not in good agreement and differ sometimes strongly about the forward speed leading to significant spread in the guidance. The current forecast is close to the previous one and is a blend of the latest mean track from GFS-UKMO-EURO and GFS-EURO.

On this track, environmental conditions will remain mostly conducive during most of the forecast period. The system is located under an upper level ridge with a still improving upper level divergence polewards due to the remote effect of a transient upper level trough today and Friday. The environment could be a little less conducive later this weekend essentially due to an increase in northerly vertical wind shear. On the current forecast track, the system could pass over self-induced cool waters. Moreover, the internal dynamics, such as eyewall replacement cycle which is very likely with mature system but with poor forecast skill, could reduce the intensification rate. Given the small size of the system, rapid variation (including rapid intensification and rapid decay) are likely, bringing uncertainties in the forecast.
271. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (product shown is a custom filtered version of their products)    D&T:: 201603170300u_170630uAREA:: COnUS+s
NOTE1:: Interesting heading towards Grothar???
NOTE2:: There goes (unnoticed) Brown Ocean Bonnie @15n 58w (passing south of Nova Scotia) Bonnie??? If i remember i'll post the animation showing the closed micro LOW from Texas through North Carolina. Friend in Western Long Island thought it was weird how clouds circled to his south as is a TS.
Think someone mentioned it as it just North of North Carolina. If interested check this comment might add it HERE.
 
ImgLand.net image
272. vis0
Does a BrownOcean TS create upwelling over land?  If so, while making toast is that mud in   her/his  your  eye   face?
A gorgeous good morning from Mainz!


NASA Earth Observatory got a new article about recent record warm February with this very telling chart:



Source: Record Warmth in February, March 17, 2016

Have a nice day, everybody!
Quoting 273. Gearsts:



Looks category 5 to me...
277. Tcwx2
A few thunderstorms look to be forming into a supercellular shape over southern Alabama. Rain for me today, yay!
Good Morning; the short-term forecast for Conus today and some cold weather moving into a chunk of the US; Winter is not over yet.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 17 2016 - 12Z Sat Mar 19 2016

...Cooler weather returning to much of the country by the end of the
week...

...Unsettled weather expected for the Gulf Coast region...

A pattern change is underway that will result in colder weather across
much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. The front
that cleared the East Coast Wednesday night had a minor effect on
temperatures, while a secondary front forecast to move through by Friday
will have a more noticeable drop in temperatures. Highs will return to
near or slightly below average for this time of year for many locations by
this weekend.

Over the Upper Midwest, the surface low over the northern Great Lakes is
forecast to weaken and move towards the east. Some snow is likely on the
northern side of this low over northern Michigan and also into northern
New England. Windy conditions are also expected in the vicinity of the
surface low with a strong pressure gradient in place.

With a stationary front setting up near the Gulf Coast over the next
couple of days, along with shortwave energy passing overhead, showers and
thunderstorms are likely from southern Texas to the Florida panhandle. A
few inches of rain will be possible in those areas that see the most
persistent rainfall.


279. JRRP7
And the current look, jet driving down colder air from the Northern latitudes into the mid-section of the US, and highs for today:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And finally the latest on Emeraude in the Indian Ocean: thankfully not a threat to a any significantly populated areas. Impressive storm that underwent rapid intensification earlier today and up to 125 knots with further slow intensification forecast:

REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A VERY COMPACT 14 NM EYE
FEATURE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS, TC EMERAUDE HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF VERY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC EMERAUDE
CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, A SOLID POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) HAS BUILT IN TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING A FURTHER
SLOW INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IN RESPONSE TO A DEGRADATION OF UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS TC EMERAUDE BEGINS A SLOW
TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING
NER TO THE NORTH. TC EMERAUDE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND AFTER
TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NER CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS AND DOMINATES THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED VARIATION,
ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN, JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN






Look at how warm the waters are where Emeraude is traversing as well as the overall heat in the equatorial waters around the world:


global hires sst map


Quoting 267. pureet1948:



That's just it, Bucsboltsfan. I did read it and they seem to be a little bit vague about what real threat, if any, this new system poses to the area. I'm sure it's not going help the flood situation in far SE TX and LA, though. Accuweather's engaging in a little bit of doomcasting, I'm afraid. In short, nothing I'm finding on the web is helpful. So, I'm hoping y'all can be a tad more helpful, that's all. OK?

If our local NWS discussion is fairly benign, and they don't see a threat, then no one here is going to raise any flags of concern. Every passing cloud is not a cause for concern. I've lived in Houston most of my life and I have never experienced severe weather that was not mentioned as a threat by the local NWS. I also keep handy a handheld marine vhf radio that has all the weather bands and transmits 24/7.
From above - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

Manipulating questions to get the answer you want is dishonest and unethical. Just ask the question honestly and use the data it generates.

The worst pervision like this I've ever seen was on a ballot initiative in Ohio where if a voter voted "yes", they were actually voting "no" because of how the question was worded.

Let's not do this kind of stuff. Isolated weather events can never be tied to the long term effects of climate change.
Did X cause Y? I look back over the last twenty years and have to conclude that the number of extreme events and rapid warming show clearly everything's connected on an energy level. It's just in different places at different times. Cause and effect of individual events is very hard. It's all connected though, and as I have seen over the last twenty years, it really is faster and faster now.
Quoting 267. pureet1948:



That's just it, Bucsboltsfan. I did read it and they seem to be a little bit vague about what real threat, if any, this new system poses to the area. I'm sure it's not going help the flood situation in far SE TX and LA, though. Accuweather's engaging in a little bit of doomcasting, I'm afraid. In short, nothing I'm finding on the web is helpful. So, I'm hoping y'all can be a tad more helpful, that's all. OK?


Bucsbotsfan is correct. The NWS is your best local source of information. I have zero weather schooling but if you would like here is my forecast for Houston. 10-20" of rain. Catastrophic flooding. Long track F5 tornadoes. ETC..... Of course I'm joking but what are you looking for from people on here who are non mets versus those that are highly educated in meteorology?
Quoting 279. JRRP7:




Hmm at this rate would be suprised if we see 1.5 by next week or even as early as this weekend
1.0 by end of month 0.5 by mid April
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EMERAUDE (06-20152016)
16:00 PM RET March 17 2016
===============================
Southeast of Diego Garcia

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Emeraude (940 hPa) located at 10.7S 84.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 25 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 10.9S 84.6E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 11.1S 85.7E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 11.9S 88.3E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 13.6S 89.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
The satellite presentation show that deep convection suffer from diurnal effect due to the small size of the system. The eye has slightly become larger, but remain very hot.

Emeraude seems to be quite stationary on the very last satellite imagery, and should turn gradually eastwards under the steering flow of a near equatorial ridge building in its northeast. During the weekend, the track should turn southwards then southwestwards as a subtropical ridge should gradually build south of the system. Global models are not in good agreement and differ sometimes strongly about the forward speed leading to significant spread in the guidance between them and also from one run to the other. The current forecast is close to the previous one and is a blend of the latest mean track from GFS-UKMO-EURO and GFS ( a less confidence has been given to the last run of EURO, as the intensity is to weak in the model) and the lack of stability of the numerical weather prediction data.

On this track, environmental conditions will remain mostly conducive during most of the forecast period. The system is located under an upper level ridge with a still improving upper level divergence polewards due to the remote effect of a transient upper level trough today and Friday. The environment could be a little less conducive later this weekend essentially due to an increase in northerly vertical wind shear. On the current forecast track, the system could pass over self-induced cool waters. Moreover, the internal dynamics, such as eyewall replacement cycle which is very likely with mature system but with poor forecast skill, could reduce the intensification rate. Given the small size of the system, rapid variation (including rapid intensification and rapid decay) are likely, bringing uncertainties in the forecast.
Quoting 284. Sandy82579:

From above - "In order to study an attribution problem in a useful way, one needs to know exactly what the goal is. %u201CStatements about attribution are sensitive to the way the questions are posed and the context within which they are posed,%u201D the report notes. %u201CFor example, a scientific researcher might re-pose the question %u2018was Hurricane Sandy caused by climate change?%u2019 as %u2018by how much did human influence on climate increase the odds of a tropical or post-tropical storm with winds greater than 65 knots making landfall in northern New Jersey?%u2019%u201D"

Manipulating questions to get the answer you want is dishonest and unethical. Just ask the question honestly and use the data it generates.

The worst pervision like this I've ever seen was on a ballot initiative in Ohio where if a voter voted "yes", they were actually voting "no" because of how the question was worded.

Let's not do this kind of stuff. Isolated weather events can never be tied to the long term effects of climate change.

Dream on.
Stay Alert today folks along the northern gulf coast............................................. ...................DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM E TX TO SW AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM N CENTRAL AND SE TX
EWD TO SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

...N CENTRAL AND E TX TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY...
A COUPLE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE...ARE ONGOING OVER N TX. THE CONVECTION IS ROOTED NEAR
850 MB...TO THE N OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...AND BY
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET THAT
EXTENDS FROM SE KS TO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ZONE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD EWD-ESEWD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND ON
THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT S OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/SE TX EWD ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F BENEATH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX AND CENTRAL LA.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY WITH SURFACE HEATING...DESPITE RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SOMEWHAT
HIGH-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE.

..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 03/17/2016

The weekly US drought monitor for today; notice how the Gulf rains alleviated some of the dryness along Texas, LA, and other parts of the Northern Gulf coast but at a very high price and loss of life from the Mexican low situation and floodings:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
already some bad storms............................................ .......SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

ALC035-099-171315-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-160317T1315Z/
CONECUH AL-MONROE AL-
745 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 744 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONROEVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROEVILLE...BEATRICE AND PETERMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8715 3164 8694 3152 8732 3164 8745
3183 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 236DEG 18KT 3160 8735

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Not a tornadic event today but hail in section of Texas so far this morning:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic
South Plains sector loop
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING....SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING....SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
Just want to stop in and wish everyone a safe and Happy St.Patrick's Day ....
Quoting 291. weathermanwannabe:

The weekly US drought monitor for today; notice how the Gulf rains alleviated some of the dryness along Texas, LA, and other parts of the Northern Gulf coast but at a very high price and loss of life from the Mexican low situation and floodings:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor


notice california......yes...there lakes are filling up....but even with el nino the snowpack is at about 85 percent of normal......they could easily be back to dire straights in a couple of years
Quoting 257. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks for this blog updating the latest on the latest thinking regarding this x>y "causality." Saved the colorful graphic because I think it is important to remember what the graphic does not show as well as what it shows. Admiral Titley's analogy is great and shows his understanding of weather as caused by the interactions that sometimes come out one way and other times other ways.

In another way of looking at the relationship between weather and climate,
if X = climate change (of whatever cause)
and Y = weather event(s)
then, Y causes X, not vice versa.


Incorrect, a changing climate system modifies the parameters for weather events, those weather events over time create an average climate which is different from the previous (that average climate is what we measure, climate change is the term for the modified parameters that influence weather). You are confusing terms.
Quoting 296. ricderr:



notice california......yes...there lakes are filling up....but even with el nino the snowpack is at about 85 percent of normal......they could easily be back to dire straights in a couple of years


Yup; that part of Cali has been in a drought slump for a few years now and this current El Nino has not made much of true dent with the exception of the snow pack issue; Cali is in trouble if this is part of a semi-permanent pattern change that remains in place over the long term.
Quoting 297. Naga5000:



Incorrect, a changing climate system modifies the parameters for weather events, those weather events over time create an average climate which is different from the previous (that average climate is what we measure, climate change is the term for the modified parameters that influence weather). You are confusing terms.


I got very confused by that too.
(Independent variable -Climate Change) causes a change in (Dependent Variable- Weather Events) and it isn't possible that (Dependent Variable) could cause a change in (Independent Variable).


Quoting 298. weathermanwannabe:



Yup; that part of Cali has been in a drought slump for a few years now and this current El Nino has not made much of true dent with the exception of the snow pack issue; Cali is in trouble if this is part of a semi-permanent pattern change that remains in place over the long term.

Hugely so.
Families should move out before it becomes a flight.
As already noted today, if you live anywhere from the Texas to Alabama corridor
where the t-storms are coming through, you might want to consider parking your
vehicles under some type of shelter (if you can) in case some of the stronger cells
start dropping hail:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM E TX TO SW AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM N CENTRAL AND SE TX
EWD TO SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.


...N CENTRAL AND E TX TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY...
A COUPLE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE...ARE ONGOING OVER N TX. THE CONVECTION IS ROOTED NEAR
850 MB...TO THE N OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...AND BY
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET THAT
EXTENDS FROM SE KS TO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ZONE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD EWD-ESEWD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND ON
THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT S OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/SE TX EWD ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F BENEATH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX AND CENTRAL LA.
302. OKsky
Quoting 289. cRRKampen:


Dream on.


Actually if the dream is about an alternative reality where natural science is the same as political science and weather happens in ziplock baggies in isolation from effects of climate, I think "wake up" might be a better thing to do than "dream on". =P
Quoting 300. cRRKampen:


Hugely so.
Families should move out before it becomes a flight.


From the Governor's April 2015 executive order:


EXECUTIVE ORDER B-29-15
WHEREAS on January 17, 2014, I proclaimed a State of Emergency to exist
throughout the State of California due to severe drought conditions; and
WHEREAS on April 25, 2014, I proclaimed a Continued State of Emergency
to exist throughout the State of California due to the ongoing drought; and
WHEREAS California's water supplies continue to be severely depleted
despite a limited amount of rain and snowfall this winter, with record low snowpack
in the Sierra Nevada mountains, decreased water levels in most of California's
reservoirs, reduced flows in the state's rivers and shrinking supplies in underground
water basins; and
WHEREAS the severe drought conditions continue to present urgent
challenges including: drinking water shortages in communities across the state,
diminished water for agricultural production, degraded habitat for many fish and
wildlife species, increased wildfire risk, and the threat of saltwater contamination to
fresh water supplies in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta; and
WHEREAS a distinct possibility exists that the current drought will stretch into
a fifth straight year in 2016 and beyond; and

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6h6 hours ago
ECMWF 00z w/blizzard on Monday for New England. Major snowfall from DC --> NYC -> Boston starting late Sun --> Mon

I was hoping for a track out to sea on the over night models.
Euro has 7-9 inches for D.C.The good news is that the sun angle will get rid of it in no time considering we are nearing April.
Quoting 296. ricderr:



notice california......yes...there lakes are filling up....but even with el nino the snowpack is at about 85 percent of normal......they could easily be back to dire straights in a couple of years
The good news is that the numbers dropped. The bad news is that, even with the rains from last week's atmospheric river, drought conditions still prevail. Not that that should come as a shock: for months hydrologists have been telling us that California's water deficit could be measured not in inches but in feet and meters, and that even a few nice storms that dumped many inches weren't going to do more than put a few dents in the situation. Here's a current chart with this week's numbers incorporated:



Of course, the numbers will drop a bit more over the next few weeks as last week's rains are accounted for--but absent something big and unexpected happening, California is still in deep, deep trouble. In other words, not only is the state already back in dire straits, it never even left them...
Quoting 284. Sandy82579:

Let's not do this kind of stuff. Isolated weather events can never be tied to the long term effects of climate change.
Let's not do *what* kind of stuff? Would you have us follow non-scientific proclamations based on nothing more than denial, ideology, or wishful thinking? Should we not instead hew to that which the greatest minds, equipped with the deepest knowledge and the most advanced technology, are telling us? This is America, of course, so everyone is free to their own opinion no matter how absolutely wrong that opinion is. But opinion is not fact, and fact is not opinion, and never the twain shall meet. Go with the former if it brings you comfort. But I do believe I'll side with science on this one.
Here is the link and chart from USGS on national ground water depletion issues; note from the other information posted this morning that salt-water contamination is an issue in many coastal regions including California and Florida:

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html

Map of groundwater depletion in certain aquifers in the U.S., showing depletion from 1900 to 2008, in feet.
Quoting 302. OKsky:



Actually if the dream is about an alternative reality where natural science is the same as political science and weather happens in ziplock baggies in isolation from effects of climate, I think "wake up" might be a better thing to do than "dream on". =P

It works like 'don't think of a baby pink elephant' ;)
Quoting 297. Naga5000:



Incorrect, a changing climate system modifies the parameters for weather events, those weather events over time create an average climate which is different from the previous (that average climate is what we measure, climate change is the term for the modified parameters that influence weather). You are confusing terms.
Oh heck. I am not confused. Just capable of thinking in more than a straight line. Without weather, you cannot have climate. If you don't understand that, look up the definitions of the two words.

Yesterday's hard rime on a cross on top of Pratomagno mountains, Tuscany, Italy. Not much of spring down there, yet. (Here for comparison a video of that cross, at 1:45, from earlier this year when the region was in a severe drought.)
Quoting 309. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the link and chart from USGS on national ground water depletion issues; note from the other information posted this morning that salt-water contamination is an issue in many coastal regions including California and Florida:

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html

Map of groundwater depletion in certain aquifers in the U.S., showing depletion from 1900 to 2008, in feet.

Despite Florida's shallow bedrock, sandy soil that is poor at holding water, shallow bedrock, a lot of agriculture and a huge population, it seems to be doing fine for the most part according to that source.
Quoting 311. Barefootontherocks:

Oh heck. I am not confused. Just capable of thinking in more than a straight line. Without weather, you cannot have climate. If you don't understand that, look up the definitions of the two words.


You are, you are confusing climate change for climate (or change in climate) and thereby suggesting an impossible relationship. I laid it out quite clear. The terms are well defined, climate change "refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." (UNFCC) Using that understanding, climate change (X) alters the atmosphere thereby effecting the weather (Y). The resulting effect can be measured as climate, and the difference between that climate and previous can be quantified as a change in climate. The average of weather over a time period is indeed climate, Barefoot, and while that relationship is quite real, is does not mean that unattributed changes in weather cause climate change. There must be a mechanism of action that causes the weather to change it does happen by magic or by non linear thinking...

In your example, weather (X) causes climate change (y). A more correct understanding is that weather averaged over a time period is climate and the resulting difference when compared to other climatic norms is a change in climate (not climate change as in the above definition). Again you are either misusing terminology or confused. Also your veiled insults are not appreciated.
315. MahFL
Quoting 296. ricderr:



notice california......yes...there lakes are filling up....but even with el nino the snowpack is at about 85 percent of normal......they could easily be back to dire straights in a couple of years


Ave is actually 90%. Also a lot of earlier snow has melted and filled up the reservoirs.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 314. Naga5000:



You are, you are confusing climate change for climate (or change in climate) and thereby suggesting an impossible relationship. I laid it out quite clear. The terms are well defined, climate change "refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." (UNFCC) Using that understanding, climate change (X) alters the atmosphere thereby effecting the weather (Y). The resulting effect can be measured as climate, and the difference between that climate and previous can be quantified as a change in climate. The average of weather over a time period is indeed climate, Barefoot, and while that relationship is quite real, is does not mean that unattributed changes in weather cause climate change. There must be a mechanism of action that causes the weather to change it does happen by magic or by non linear thinking...

In your example, weather (X) causes climate change (y). A more correct understanding is that weather averaged over a time period is climate and the resulting difference when compared to other climatic norms is a change in climate (not climate change as in the above definition). Again you are either misusing terminology or confused. Also your veiled insults are not appreciated.
Perhaps what is now commonly referred to "climate change" needs a new and different name. Or maybe go back to global warming - which makes more sense and differentiates the current usage of the words "climate change" in a much better way. If the climate is changing over a period (30 years isn't it?) then weather is causing that. Temperature itself is simple weather. Of course, the seas must be brought into the picture is if global surface temps are the monitoring goal. Right? Anyway, I hope you get my drift. The phrase, "climate change," in its current usage has two different meanings. And your usage of the phrase is not proven to cause extreme weather.

"Unattributed changes in weather"??? LOL Now that's a good one. Weather changes constantly. You might want to (re)read Admiral Titley's analogy above. So many unknowns... Try throwing in a little baking soda.

Extreme weather has happened since the atmosphere began. Still no proven causality. A high chance where temps are concerned. A medium to low to scratch your head chance of the others. I refer you to this graphic from the blog above.



I do not misuse words. Again, I am not confused. I am capable of seeing words and clouds and life in general in ways that you can't understand right now. That's all. Tell you what. I won't call your tunnel vision "confused" if you'll quit using that word for my way of thinking. From now on, when I see you or others exaggerating the science, I will call you on it thusly: "Leeches."
;)
Quoting 306. Neapolitan:

The good news is that the numbers dropped. The bad news is that, even with the rains from last week's atmospheric river, drought conditions still prevail. Not that that should come as a shock: for months hydrologists have been telling us that California's water deficit could be measured not in inches but in feet and meters, and that even a few nice storms that dumped many inches weren't going to do more than put a few dents in the situation. Here's a current chart with this week's numbers incorporated:



Of course, the numbers will drop a bit more over the next few weeks as last week's rains are accounted for--but absent something big and unexpected happening, California is still in deep, deep trouble. In other words, not only is the state already back in dire straits, it never even left them...
Killjoy.

Drought like this does not go away in a single rainy season. Or even two, most times. You know that, Neo.
The improvement is easier to visualize this way - for me and others.
This week:

10-28-14:
Quoting 317. Barefootontherocks:

Perhaps what is now commonly referred to "climate change" needs a new and different name. Or maybe go back to global warming - which makes more sense and differentiates the current usage of the words "climate change" in a much better way. If the climate is changing over a period (30 years isn't it?) then weather is causing that. Temperature itself is simple weather. Of course, the seas must be brought into the picture is global surface temps are the monitoring goal. Right? Anyway, I hope you get my drift. The phrase, "climate change," in its current usage has two different meanings. And your usage of the phrase is not proven to cause extreme weather.

"Unattributed changes in weather"??? LOL Now that's a good one. Weather changes constantly. You might want to (re)read Admiral Titley's analogy above. So many unknowns... Try throwing in a little baking soda.

Extreme weather has happened since the atmosphere began. Still no proven causality. A high chance where temps are concerned. A medium to low to scratch your head chance of the others. I refer you to this graphic from the blog above.



I do not misuse words. Again, I am not confused. I am capable of seeing words and clouds and life in general in ways that you can't understand right now. That's all. Tell you what. I won't call your tunnel vision "confused" if you'll quit using that word for my way of thinking. From now on, when I see you or others exaggerating the science, I will call you on it thusly: "Leeches."
;)


What a bunch of gibberish. First, starting with the "go back to global warming" bit is a typical denier talking point that is completely unreal. Global warming is the term for the observed increase in temperature attributed to humans, climate change is the resulting atmospheric change as a consequence. Are you following yet?

"The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. However, this is simply untrue. For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6%uFFFDC, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3%uFFFDC). Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'. The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today). The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'. There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago. There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.

And a Google Scholar search reveals that the term 'climate change' was in use before the term 'global warming', and has always been the more commonly-used term in scientific literature":



The rest of your post is just nonsensical insult that somehow you are more knowledgeable than both the scientists (I suppose you are publishing your contrarianism, right?) and myself because of your magical way of thinking when in reality you just seem to enjoy being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian despite an ever increasing wrongness. By the way, have you managed to figure out why the trend wouldn't change if the baseline used for the graphs was different yet? It is certainly easy to ignore reality when you change the definitions to fit your own interpretation. Unfortunately, that doesn't play well in the real word.