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Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2012

At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weaverwxman:
Wannabe the show was cancelled on Sunday but Saturday did happen even with the low ceiling.

Thunderbirds on Saturday did a very abbreviated show. I was at the beach on Friday for the practice - much more impressive. And no crowds!

According to the media, Sunday was cancelled due to water on the ground. It probably would been cancelled anyway due to the low ceiling, but I don't think it got that far.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Using Dr. M's guidance below, and looking at the area around South Florida, I would say that we have had an extra-tropical cold cored system over South Florida this weekend. Now looking at the loops, we will have to see if convection continues to build (it is basically over/near the Gulf Stream right now) and if it can tap into the latent heat, and maintain some winds, we could theoretically get a sub-tropical system or depression.

Too early to tell what could happen but I would only note that the system originated as an extra-tropical entity attached to the recent cold front and you can see that it is slowly trying to detach from the front and become a self-sustained entity. However, wind shear is very daunting and I would not expect a tropical storm to form buy maybe sub-tropical.

That is my amateur "wannabe" take on the disturbance...Waiting to see Dr. M's take on what could happen over the next 24 hours.
This fits in pretty well with what most of us have been thinking this weekend. IF anything gets going, and that is is big if, it would more likely be sub-tropical rather than tropical in nature.

Models are forecasting for the low-level trough to split from the mid-upper circulation some time within the next 48 hrs, IIRC...
Quoting BahaHurican:
This fits in pretty well with what most of us have been thinking this weekend. IF anything gets going, and that is is big if, it would more likely be sub-tropical rather than tropical in nature.

Models are forecasting for the low-level trough to split from the mid-upper circulation some time within the next 48 hrs, IIRC...


Thanks. I, thankfully, spent all day on Sat fishing and yesterday with my kid so I did not get a chance to check on the Blog, or weather, over the weekend.
1504. Grothar
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Just waiting on Dr. M to check in and "re-start" the Blog. Been interesting watching the "extra"-tropical low around South Florida this weekend,

Grothar...............Did they go through with the Air & Sea show on Ft. Lauderdale beach this past weekend?


No, we had very heavy rains here on the Beach. They lost a lot of money. A few years ago, it was also rained out. This was the first one they had in a number of years.
1505. nigel20
1506. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:
Hi everyone is that baha blob monvin west over so fl latter today tia
I notice in our local weather, they had said a few days ago, the rains would come big time tuesday, now, its wens or thurs so they are unsure what this thing is finally going to do and when...interesting to say the least huh
1507. LargoFl
1508. Grothar
A lot of dry air on the west coast of Florida, but it looks like a lot of wet air moving in from the Gulf. There is still a little spin off of the the Southeast Coast of Florida. Wonder what the Doc thinks?



Link
Quoting Grothar:


No, we had very heavy rains here on the Beach. They lost a lot of money. A few years ago, it was also rained out. This was the first one they had in a number of years.


Yeah. My Bud down there did the same thing BrowardJeff did. Took the day off on Friday and watched the "full" rehearsal on the beach then had drinks at Blue Martini.......Nice way to spend a Friday.
1510. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1152 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-301800-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1152 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.NOW...THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE BANDS
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH INLAND INTO SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS SAME AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW...AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
1511. Levi32
As we talked about yesterday, the surface low has now been stripped out from underneath the upper low and is backing westward naked. The upper low is continuing to support showers and thunderstorms off of south Florida and the Bahamas. This activity should stay largely confined to these areas, and overall the system should weaken today and tomorrow.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

FLZ073>075-173-174-301645-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL MAINLAND MONROE FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1215 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1204 PM EDT...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 55 MPH
POSSIBLE. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ENTER INTO THE MIAMI METRO AREAS
FROM BISCAYNE BAY AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* THESE WINDS WILL AFFECT...
MIAMI METRO AREAS AND INTERIOR MIAMI DADE COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS.
Waiting to see what the doc has to say.... lol

We are in a little lull right now. I'm wondering if I should try getting out now, while the getting is good.

Hi nigel.... sorry I didn't greet u earlier! I'm willing to share some of my rain.... interested?

LOL
1514. LargoFl
no rain clouds by me on the west coast....................
Quoting Levi32:
As we talked about yesterday, the surface low has now been stripped out from underneath the upper low and is backing westward naked. The upper low is continuing to support showers and thunderstorms off of south Florida and the Bahamas. This activity should stay largely confined to these areas, and overall the system should weaken today and tomorrow.



Thanks. Nice to have a high res shot to spot the naked low out huh?............Nice catch/observation/analysis....... :)
Quoting Levi32:
As we talked about yesterday, the surface low has now been stripped out from underneath the upper low and is backing westward naked. The upper low is continuing to support showers and thunderstorms off of south Florida and the Bahamas. This activity should stay largely confined to these areas, and overall the system should weaken today and tomorrow.

That's really a rather "tropical" thing for that low to do... lol Reminds me of Jeanne...

The widespread showers as opposed to the concentration in one smaller area definitely supports your description. I'm wondering if this ULL will move out before Wednesday. Sometimes they hang around.
Just when you thought we were settling into a new pattern of dry springs...

"This has been the wettest April in the UK in over a century, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.

Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000."

Link
1518. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's really a rather "tropical" thing for that low to do... lol Reminds me of Jeanne...

The widespread showers as opposed to the concentration in one smaller area definitely supports your description. I'm wondering if this ULL will move out before Wednesday. Sometimes they hang around.


You guys may have to hang in there for another day or so before the upper trough flattens out enough to put a lid on the convection.
I'll just leave this.

Meso.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'll just leave this.

Meso.


Nice Photo, Scary but Nice.
Today's CPC ENSO update has Nino 3.4 up to -0.1C, and that is more warm than the -0.4C that was on last week's update.

Link

1522. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Ja, wie meine Brille, zum Beispiel! Du Esel, du! LOL
Es war ein esel, gab jesus eine ride . ich bin special!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'll just leave this.

Meso.


Where was that?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'll just leave this.

Meso.
Beautiful photo. No rain here in 42 days but I don't want a Meso. I will take a tropical depression to stall over my house for about 6 hours though.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'll just leave this.

Meso.
caps lock
1526. bappit
From Houston, TX forecast discussion this morning.

SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL GET THE AREA OFF TO A WARM START FOR LAST DAY OF THE MONTH...AND A WARM MONTH IT HAS BEEN SEE BELOW FOR THE 1ST-29TH NUMBERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE WARMTH WILL BE CONTINUING AS THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEAKENS BRIEFLY TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO REBUILD.
1527. bappit
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Where was that?

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.
1528. bappit
Quoting biff4ugo:
I saw a special about the sun yesterday. It mentioned that the 11 year sunspot cycle is ended by a switch in the magnetic polarity of the Sun and a realignment of the magnetic fields. That calms solar weather.
The earth also has a history of switching polarity, in the geology. If it switched now, would that help the weather or mess up our electrical grid?

From Wikipedia "Geomagnetic Reversals":

Effects on biosphere and human society

Not long after the first geomagnetic polarity time scales were produced, scientists began exploring the possibility that reversals could be linked to extinctions. Most such proposals rest on the assumption that the Earth's field has much lower intensity during reversals. Possibly the first such hypothesis was that high energy particles trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt could be liberated and bombard the Earth.[35][36] Detailed calculations confirm that, if the Earth's dipole field disappeared entirely (leaving the quadrupole and higher components), most of the atmosphere could be reached by high energy particles. However, the atmosphere would stop them. Instead there would be secondary radiation of 10 Be or 36 Cl from collisions of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. There is evidence that this occurs both during secular variation[37][38] and during reversals.[39][40]

Another hypothesis by McCormac and Evans assumes that the Earth's field would disappear entirely during reversals.[41] They argue that the atmosphere of Mars may have been eroded away by the solar wind because it had no magnetic field to protect it. They predict that ions would be stripped away from Earth's atmosphere above 100 km. However, the evidence from paleointensity measurements is that the magnetic field does not disappear. Based on paleointensity data for the last 800,000 years,[42] the magnetopause is still estimated to be at about 3 Earth radii during the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal.[35] Even if the magnetic field disappeared, the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere to shield the surface from energetic particles.[43]

Hypotheses have also been advanced linking reversals to mass extinctions.[44] Many such arguments were based on an apparent periodicity in the rate of reversals; more careful analyses show that the reversal record is not periodic.[14] It may be, however, that the ends of superchrons have caused vigorous convection leading to widespread volcanism, and that the subsequent airborne ash caused extinctions.[45]

Tests of correlations between extinctions and reversals are difficult for a number of reasons. Larger animals are too scarce in the fossil record for good statistics, so paleontologists have analyzed microfossil extinctions. Even microfossil data can be unreliable if there are hiatuses in the fossil record. It can appear that the extinction occurs at the end of a polarity interval when the rest of that polarity interval was simply eroded away.[19] Statistical analysis shows no evidence for a correlation between reversals and extinctions.[46][35]
1530. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1231 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

AMZ610-FLZ063-066-069-070-301845-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-GLADES-HENDRY-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
1231 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.NOW...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
AND PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WHERE ONE INCH IS
POSSIBLE.

$$
1531. LargoFl
1532. bappit
Biff4ugo: Seems that we are much more likely to have a geomagnetic excursion than a reversal. (If they were meteorologists they doubtless would call these oscillations.) Seems like it would stress birds more than they let on particularly given the habitat destruction birds already face. I think there'd be a few species extinctions.

"Since no excursions have been recorded within human history, it is unknown precisely what effects one would have. However, it is likely that nothing serious would occur, as the human species has certainly lived through at least one such event; Homo erectus and possibly Homo heidelbergensis lived through the Matuyama reversal with no known ill effect, and excursions are shorter lived and do not result in permanent changes to the magnetic field. The major hazard to modern society is likely to be similar to those associated with geomagnetic storms, where satellites and power supplies may be damaged, although compass navigation would also be affected. Some forms of life which are thought to navigate based on magnetic fields may be disrupted, but again it is suggested that these species have survived excursions in the past. Since excursion periods are not always global, any effect might well only be experienced in certain places, with others relatively unaffected. The time period involved could be as little as a century, or as much as 10,000 years."

1533. LargoFl
Many North Florida lakes reporting lowest lake levels on record. Can someone explain El Nino and its impact on rainfall in the Southeast. My memory was it increases rainfall in the winter? Any impact on rainfall in summer months?
1535. bappit
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
These storms are insane. Left one has hail of 4.78in and right is 4.62in. The right one also has a strong meso.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The right cell now has 5.00inch hail and the left dropped to 2.37in. That means that the left storm dropped most of its hail core in one spot. All crops in that are are going to be decimated. Same deal with cars and roof tops.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The right hail core. Only show 4 in on this one.


Be very cautious using the estimates from GR2Analyst as exact values. The algorithm used in the program is for the Maximum-Estimated Hail Size, and the goal in mind was for 75% of the observed hail to be smaller and 25% of the observed hail to be larger when compared to the computed estimate.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the estimates - especially at the higher end - where the algorithm can be tricked by areas of dense, wet hailstones.



I have a GR2Analyst POSH/MEHS blog post that links to more information on this, if interested.
Any outside chance we get an early start to the season from this system of florida's east coast? I know the waters arent quite there yet, but I have seen stranger.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today's CPC ENSO update has Nino 3.4 up to -0.1C, and that is more warm than the -0.4C that was on last week's update.

Here is the difference since the beginning of the year:

January 2, 2012:



April 29, 2012:

Link



Slowly, but surely, the negative anomalies along the equator are vanishing. I've argued in the past that the transition from La Nina to El Nino is slowed by the -PDO's affect of cooler waters. I've noticed recently that the -PDO doesn't look quite as strong as it has the past year or so and that might help transition us into a more warm-neutral ENSO as we head into early hurricane season. I truly believe that we will have at least weak El Nino conditions by August.

Quoting LargoFl:
81 here southeast of Buda Texas, 71 percent stupidity, mostly cloudy. Don't really care for this time of the year when it isn't raining because you can always smell the agriculture fires burning in Mexico, wind is almost always from south this time of the year.
Title: Sachiko Japan Radiation Fears
Date: April 29, 2012
Uploaded by: cookhealthyfast

Sachiko, 33-year-old Ph.D. student living in Tokyo - interview in her actual visit to the US



Title: 119 of 132 people positive from sampling survey of radioactive substances in urine in Iwate
Source: Fukushima Diary
Date: Apr. 29, 2012

Iwate prefecture conducted sampling survey of radioactive substances in urine in Ichinoseki city and Oshu city.

The result published on 3/2/2012 shows cesium was measured from 119 of 132 people (90.1%). The highest reading was 6 Bq/L.

On 4/16/2012, the chairman of Iwate association of obstetricians and gynecologists, Kobayashi sent public questions to Tasso, Iwate governor. [...]

Translations of Selected Questions

[Are] the meeting minutes of the assessing committee disclosed ? If not, we demand to know the reason.
Is there any schedule to conduct research about the diet of the children who they measured cesium from the urine of and about their symptoms ? If not, we demand to know the reason.
We think we shall continue to conduct childrens urine test and health inspection from now on. What is the view of Iwate prefecture ?
Please tell us how much of cesium per L in urine corresponds to 1 mSv/h or 100mSv/Life on the assumption that a 40kg of a child continuously takes cesium for 365 days after Fukushima accident / urine = 1L/d.

Please give us documented answers for those questions above by 5/16/2012. We will disclose the content of the answer to media.

1541. LargoFl
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
81 here southeast of Buda Texas, 71 percent stupidity, mostly cloudy. Don't really care for this time of the year when it isn't raining because you can always smell the agriculture fires burning in Mexico, wind is almost always from south this time of the year.
must be awful, the smell, we had it here when the wind blew the smoke from our own fires around the state..really awful there one day, eyes burned,could not see the car in front of you,been pretty good around here lately tho, hope it stays this way.
Pressure still trending lower in the keys.
From February 2012 : Gundersen: 1/3 of Fukushima kids tested positive for lumps on thyroid -- Forebodes some real issues in future -- We're only 10 months into the accident here (AUDIO)

1544. LargoFl
check out these clouds at Panama city in febuary.........
When we will get the first declared "official tropical wave" for 2012 coming from Africa?

Thanks Bappit!
1547. LargoFl
lets see if this works..strange clouds............
1548. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
lets see if this works..strange clouds............

Good example of orographic clouds. (clouds caused by the changing shape of the land beneath)
Quoting LargoFl:
lets see if this works..strange clouds............


Sea fog being lifted over the buildings. Pretty cool looking stuff..
The switch hasn't completely been thrown for the Northern Hemisphere season yet. 97W died, then promptly three invests formed in the Southern Hemisphere..91S, 92S & 93S.


This is 92S. I don't see the other ones.
Where did you find those, link please.
Good afternoon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR...FAR SWRN TN...EXTREME NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301855Z - 302100Z

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS INCREASED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS TIME.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE
ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO FAR WRN TN /FROM DEQ NEWD TO DYR/. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH AN
INTENSIFYING CELL OVER PIKE COUNTY. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS HEATING CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AOB 30 KTS/ AND ONLY MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE. MULTICELL CLUSTER WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BRIEF
ORGANIZATION WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY...MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES /PWATS AOA 1.50 INCHES/
AND SOME POTENTIAL TRAINING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGEST HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

..MOSIER.. 04/30/2012


Any good blobs today?
Hi All! Does anyone know of a data source for either daily or monthly SSTs/anomalies for the Main Development Region for the Atlantic Basin? (numerical value, not maps/images)

Ideally I could get data back at least through the 2004 season.

Thanks in advance for your help!


Note - the best I've found so far is the following:

I can get a similar index (NTA) through March 2012, but the MDR value is only updated through the end of 2010.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/
1555. Grothar
Here's a cool, but partially sloppy, image of all the Day 1 Tornado Outlooks issued during the year of 2011 composed into one map. You can kind of get an idea of where the worst of the Severe Weather was.

1557. 7544
nice radar gro it doesnt look like this blob wants to die out soon keepss reformjng more convection in the baha and heading west imo
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Hi All! Does anyone know of a data source for either daily or monthly SSTs/anomalies for the Main Development Region for the Atlantic Basin? (numerical value, not maps/images)

Ideally I could get data back at least through the 2004 season.

Thanks in advance for your help!


Note - the best I've found so far is the following:

I can get a similar index (NTA) through March 2012, but the MDR value is only updated through the end of 2010.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/


Monthly Atmospheric & SST Indices has table. NATL is the MDR. I believe it is "new climatology" but check "more info" under ALERT.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Monthly Atmospheric & SST Indices has table. NATL is the MDR. I believe it is "new climatology" but check "more info" under ALERT.



Great, thank you! It'll be interesting to see if the SSTs rally back up a bit (like 2009) or stay cold/get colder. I guess it depends on if +NAO and the strong trade winds associated trend downward.

Also, I'd think that the genesis region of storms this year may be further west in the MDR, making it slightly more likely that we'll see more straight moving storms impacting the western Caribbean, though overall activity will likely be down.
1560. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
nice radar pic there gro, wish some of that rain would move up north where we could sure use it, winds now are really gusting here
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...

DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS W OF FST. INFLOW AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
HOT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND
30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27015.


...MEAD
We have pretty widespread severe weather potential today... I don't expect anything too bad in terms of tornadoes, but a lot of areas are under the gun for some large hail and strong winds... Already a watch in SW Texas and one that includes much of Indiana and some of Kentucky... Now it looks like we'll be getting one for the TX and OK panhandles

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301958Z - 302100Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
SW KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CB ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
NERN NM SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. SOME CIN REMAINS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHILE AREAS FARTHER S ARE UNCAPPED. CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1500 J/KG OVER THE NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES TO 2500 J/KG OVER
AREAS FARTHER S /WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S/. BEST DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASED FLOW AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PORTIONS THE NRN
TX PANHANDLE APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED IN EARLIER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL EXIST AND COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AOB 40 KTS/
AND MOSTLY WEAK/VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER S...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

..MOSIER.. 04/30/2012
looks on vis. sat. there might be a weak tropical wave around 55
Quoting islander101010:
looks on vis. sat. there might be a weak tropical wave around 55

Nope, it is too early for our first tropical wave to appear...just thunderstorm activity.

1565. LargoFl
when you fish here in florida..beware.......................
Quoting islander101010:
looks on vis. sat. there might be a weak tropical wave around 55


HPC Tropical Desk appears to agree with you, though they may be a little further east at this time. They show one on their day three (valid 12Z Wed).


1567. LargoFl
(CNN) -- Authorities in Peru are investigating the death of over 538 pelicans, along with other birds, on the northern coast of the country, the Peruvian ministry of production said Sunday.
This after 877 dolphins washed ashore dead.....something major is wrong down there along its shores.............
1568. LargoFl
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Be very cautious using the estimates from GR2Analyst as exact values. The algorithm used in the program is for the Maximum-Estimated Hail Size, and the goal in mind was for 75% of the observed hail to be smaller and 25% of the observed hail to be larger when compared to the computed estimate.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the estimates - especially at the higher end - where the algorithm can be tricked by areas of dense, wet hailstones.



I have a GR2Analyst POSH/MEHS blog post that links to more information on this, if interested.
Thanks for the info. You have to admit that 5.00inch measurements are very impressive.
Quoting PedleyCA:


This is 92S. I don't see the other ones.
Where did you find those, link please.


FNMOC
Quoting Skyepony:


FNMOC


Thanks for that info.
1572. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
when you fish here in florida..beware.......................


I give Largo ...what the heck is that?


Bradenton, Fla. man dies in So Calif boat race

Link
1574. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's a cool, but partially sloppy, image of all the Day 1 Tornado Outlooks issued during the year of 2011 composed into one map. You can kind of get an idea of where the worst of the Severe Weather was.


I like the maps of tornado tracks posted previously. Can't get plainer than that.
1575. Grothar
Quoting LargoFl:
when you fish here in florida..beware.......................


Dang, Largo, that fish is ugly.
1576. Thrawst
Sun just came out for the first time since Friday Morning here in Nassau.

My goodness that made my soul happy (:
Quoting Grothar:


Dang, Largo, that fish is ugly.

Who are you to judge a fish, Gro? That wasn't very nice...the fish has feelings to!
This 15inch(38centimetre)wide TasmanianKingCrab weighing 15pounds(6.8kilograms) was saved from the cooking pot by a British aquarium worker, then donated to SeaLifePark in the UK. When fully grown, he'll weigh ~30pounds(13.6kilograms) and be ~18inches(46centimetres)wide.

Due to focal-length lens-distortion, the crab's size is enlarged in comparison to the human behind it, but looking at the fingertips (seen between each of the claws) will give you a better idea of its real size.
Quoting Thrawst:
Sun just came out for the first time since Friday Morning here in Nassau.

My goodness that made my soul happy (:
I was in Nassau from Friday afternoon until this morning, and I can vouch that it was miserable. Rain and wind, followed by rain and wind, followed by rain and wind. And now that I'm back in Florida, it's sunny and calm rainy and windy. Go figure. :-\ But I'm glad you guys finally got some sun anyway...
1565 LargoFl: When you fish here in florida, beware...

Juvenile oarfish, I assume... or possibly one of the smaller species.
Here's what a more fully grown adult looks like.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I was in Nassau from Friday afternoon until this morning, and I can vouch that it was miserable. Rain and wind, followed by rain and wind, followed by rain and wind. And now that I'm back in Florida, it's sunny and calm rainy and windy. Go figure. :-\ But I'm glad you guys finally got some sun anyway...


Hey! Do you have something against rain and wind? >:(
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey! Do you have something against rain and wind? >:(
Not normally. But we had to take care of some outdoor work, so, for this past weekend, at least, I did have something against it. ;-)
1583. LargoFl
Quoting aspectre:
1565 LargoFl: When you fish here in florida, beware...

Juvenile oarfish, I assume.
Here's what a more fully grown adult looks like.
yes your right, i cannot imagine the fun it would be hooking then pulling in that fish, must take hours
Quoting Neapolitan:
I was in Nassau from Friday afternoon until this morning, and I can vouch that it was miserable. Rain and wind, followed by rain and wind, followed by rain and wind. And now that I'm back in Florida, it's sunny and calm rainy and windy. Go figure. :-\ But I'm glad you guys finally got some sun anyway...

Cadiz/Jerez:-
Friday Rain wind,
Staturday Rain, Wind,
Sunday, Moto GP Rain, wind, cold.
Monday Thunder storms, wind, Fog.
So much for our drough?
We got about 6 inches of rain in 4 days
Manaña Sol!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Thanks for the info. You have to admit that 5.00inch measurements are very impressive.


It's impressive, but to put it in perspective, take another look at the reliability diagram for the hail algorithm. A 5.0" (~125mm) hailstone corresponds to about 1100 J/(m)(s) on the Severe Hail Index (SHI) equation for Maximum Estimated Hail Size (MEHS). But from the cases analyzed in the paper, the hail size distribution for an SHI of 1100 was about 20-80mm (0.8-3.1 inches). That's quite a spread.

Bottom line... the algorithm used in GR2Analyst is probably one of the best out there that uses single-pol radar data. There are other good ones too, but I think the SHI technique is near the top. But with that said, I have seen that thing go nuts - 3",4", something 5" values yet reports range from 1-3" because it is prolific amounts of smaller, wet hail and water+ice absorbs/re-emits the radar pulses far more efficiently than ice.
1586. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
This 15inch(38centimetre)wide TasmanianKingCrab weighing 15pounds(6.8kilograms) was saved from the cooking pot by a British aquarium worker, then donated to SeaLifePark in the UK. When fully grown, he'll weigh ~30pounds(13.6kilograms) and be ~18inches(46centimetres)wide.

Due to focal-length lens-distortion, the crab's size is enlarged in comparison to the human behind it, but looking at the fingertips (seen between each of the claws) will give you a better idea of its real size.


Wow, that picture wants to make me go melt some butter.
Anyone that wants a good shot to see a Tornado Signature (TS) on NEXRAD, as well as possible dual pol indications of a tornado, should switch their GR2Analysts to KDDC now.

Beam is sampling a rapidly developing circulation from a newly-formed RFD at less than 1000ft just 10mi from Dodge City, KS.
1588. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who are you to judge a fish, Gro? That wasn't very nice...the fish has feelings to!


I didn't mean anything by it. It just reminded me of one of my nephews.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Anyone that wants a good shot to see a Tornado Signature (TS) on NEXRAD, as well as possible dual pol indications of a tornado, should switch their GR2Analysts to KDDC now.

Beam is sampling a rapidly developing circulation from a newly-formed RFD at less than 1000ft just 10mi from Dodge City, KS.

I need to upgrade to dual-pol...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's impressive, but to put it in perspective, take another look at the reliability diagram for the hail algorithm. A 5.0" (~125mm) hailstone corresponds to about 1100 J/(m)(s) on the Severe Hail Index (SHI) equation for Maximum Estimated Hail Size (MEHS). But from the cases analyzed in the paper, the hail size distribution for an SHI of 1100 was about 20-80mm (0.8-3.1 inches). That's quite a spread.

Bottom line... the algorithm used in GR2Analyst is probably one of the best out there that uses single-pol radar data. There are other good ones too, but I think the SHI technique is near the top. But with that said, I have seen that thing go nuts - 3",4", something 5" values yet reports range from 1-3" because it is prolific amounts of smaller, wet hail and water+ice absorbs/re-emits the radar pulses far more efficiently than ice.
Speaking of hail this guy out in TX is quite the producer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I need to upgrade to dual-pol...
Are they offering Dual-Pol level 2 data?
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Anyone that wants a good shot to see a Tornado Signature (TS) on NEXRAD, as well as possible dual pol indications of a tornado, should switch their GR2Analysts to KDDC now.

Beam is sampling a rapidly developing circulation from a newly-formed RFD at less than 1000ft just 10mi from Dodge City, KS.
Ok thank you so much.
1594. LargoFl
ok uyou did good with the oar fish, lets see how well you do with these lol..i cannot believe it.....Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are they offering Dual-Pol level 2 data?

Yeah, but you have to pay the $120 upgrade. I would just upgrade to GRlevel3 v.2 which is expected to be released around May 21...it will contain the simple dual-pol stuff and only costs $40 to upgrade from the current GRlevel3.
Ed Oneal has a rapidly rotating wall cloud.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but you have to pay the $120 upgrade. I would just upgrade to GRlevel3 v.2 which is expected to be released around May 21...it will contain the simple dual-pol stuff and come with a $40 upgrade from the current GRlevel3.
So expensive.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but you have to pay the $120 upgrade. I would just upgrade to GRlevel3 v.2 which is expected to be released around May 21...it will contain the simple dual-pol stuff and only costs $40 to upgrade from the current GRlevel3.



Resolution will probably be reduced. I prefer the raw data. Considering the amount of effort that Mike Gibson has to put into his software, $120 is cheap by comparison.
That storm near Dodge City is pretty impressive...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
That storm near Dodge City is pretty impressive...
Getting a bit to close to the radar site.
1602. fsumet
On NWS Miami Facebook page:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

TORNADO WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-097-101-119 -135-145-151-
165-171-175-185-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FINNEY FORD
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KIOWA LANE MEADE
NESS PAWNEE PRATT
RUSH SCOTT SEWARD
STAFFORD


OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075 -093-129-149-
151-153-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GREER HARMON
HARPER JACKSON KIOWA
MAJOR ROGER MILLS WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD


TXC011-045-065-075-087-129-179-191-197-211-233-295 -357-375-381-
393-437-483-010700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.120430T2245Z-120501T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HALL HARDEMAN
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER


ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...OUN...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Getting a bit to close to the radar site.

Yeah I hate when that happens... Really messes the image up
2243Z: The TS is gone. Was basically there for one scan. That most-likely means that there was a brief tornado or a near touch-down, which has since occluded.

In the meantime, looking at the dual-pol moments in regards to hail is quite interesting. Some of the areas with the highest BR also have ZDR near 0.0dBz... implying larger hailstones with little rainfall present. Rainfall is not spherical and thus gets more return from the horizontal than the vertical (ZDR >0.0dBz).
At the same time, there is a reduction in RHO/CC, implying something of irregular shape. Sometimes can be debris, other times can be large, irregular hail that is tumbling.
KDP is used to measure water content, and in those areas of lower RHO/CC and near 0.0 for ZDR we have low KDP.
Verdict: not much water, but large hail.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
2243Z: The TS is gone. Was basically there for one scan. That most-likely means that there was a brief tornado or a near touch-down, which has since occluded.

In the meantime, looking at the dual-pol moments in regards to hail is quite interesting. Some of the areas with the highest BR also have ZDR near 0.0dBz... implying larger hailstones with little rainfall present. Rainfall is not spherical and thus gets more return from the horizontal than the vertical (ZDR >0.0dBz).

Hail with little rainfall? That's cool.
2252Z: Another TS.... beam at ~500ft AGL. Likely tornado or forming tornado hail/rain-wrapped.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hail with little rainfall? That's cool.


I've experienced it once or twice before. Very strange sensation when it happens... it just doesn't seem right. One time we were aware from the core and under the anvil. Updraft was strong enough to basically fling it out of the FFD and RFD regions.
1583 LargoFl: ...I cannot imagine the fun it would be hooking then pulling in that fish, must take hours.

They're not known for putting up a good fight against being hauled in, so I don't know why anyone would take an oarfish in the first place. Certainly their meat isn't anything that anyone would eat out of preference over a serving of any other fish.

BTW: Large numbers of oarfish were seen in the waters of and from the beaches of Japan between December'09 thru March'10. In Japanese folklore, they're known as Messengers from the Sea God's Palace... and their appearance is said to portend earthquakes.
So I guess Florida should expect its own Tsunami sometime soon.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
2243Z: The TS is gone. Was basically there for one scan. That most-likely means that there was a brief tornado or a near touch-down, which has since occluded.

In the meantime, looking at the dual-pol moments in regards to hail is quite interesting. Some of the areas with the highest BR also have ZDR near 0.0dBz... implying larger hailstones with little rainfall present. Rainfall is not spherical and thus gets more return from the horizontal than the vertical (ZDR >0.0dBz).
At the same time, there is a reduction in RHO/CC, implying something of irregular shape. Sometimes can be debris, other times can be large, irregular hail that is tumbling.
KDP is used to measure water content, and in those areas of lower RHO/CC and near 0.0 for ZDR we have low KDP.
Verdict: not much water, but large hail.
Dual-pol is amazing. Maybe the upgrade will be worth it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
2252Z: Another TS.... beam at ~500ft AGL. Likely tornado or forming tornado hail/rain-wrapped.
Very impressive.
The tornado warning has expired... we'll see if a new one is issued
2257Z: Major RFD punch seems to have killed the circulation. Was there for one scan. Peak-to-peak width was roughly 0.75mi in diameter (not necessarily the damage width on the ground).
Major hailstorm probably going on right now in the area where the circulation was located. Worst of the hail is in the hook where water content is minimal; heavy rain mixed with hail in the FFD north of the circulation.
Current Effective Storm Relative Helicity:



Current Mid-level LCL Heights:



Current Surface-based CAPE:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The tornado warning has expired... we'll see if a new one is issued


Would imagine another is coming soon. This storm seems to be going through very rapid cycles with decent-sized tornadic circulation dying off within 1 radar scan and vice-versa. New circulation already is evident at upper tilts just east of the old occluded one.
A storm in south central Arkansas heading for Pine Bluff has developed a hook
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current Effective Storm Relative Helicity:



Current Mid-level LCL Heights:



Current Surface-based CAPE:


Overall, it looks like the Texas Panhandle is a good place to be for very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The HRRR had some large supercells blowing up there around this timeframe.
If a tornadic storm has to happen, this is just about the right distance for it to be from the radar site. Not too close, but close enough for you to almost be seeing what is on the ground. It is also the distance where you can get TSs instead of TVSs (with superres), which are stronger indicators of tornadic activity and better representations of circulation diameter.
1618. ncstorm
Hey Guys..lonnnng work day! I see we got some tornado activity!
1619. docrod
Approaching a total of 1 foot of rain here in Key Colony Beach (FL) in my very unofficial bucket. The total amount of rain likely varies a lot from one mile marker to the next. Happy to report no roof leaks!

- take care
We have tornadogenesis going on in Kansas.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPEARVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPEARVILLE...BELLEFONT AND OFFERLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 9951 3783 9947 3783 9986 3795 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 267DEG 26KT 3789 9977
HAIL 1.50IN

$$

SUGDEN
Northern one is really winding up. Southern one also seems like it wants to produce.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have tornadogenesis going on in Kansas.

Tornado Warned again...

The potential tornado producing storm is heading almost due west, but another severe storm southeast of it is heading northwest... the two are on a collision course, so this may choke the tornadic storm off
Have had to say this 3 times this year but Greensburg needs to watch out. Cell to its South West is starting to acquire decent rotation.
The storm northeast of Bucklin should become tornado warned soon.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF W TX -- FROM SOUTH-PLAINS TO BIG BEND AND
EWD TOWARD LOW ROLLING PLAINS...CONCHO VALLEY AND DRT AREA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...210...

VALID 302311Z - 010115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
209...210...CONTINUES.

CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF SVR TSTMS NOW OVER WW AREAS MAY PERSIST
FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS NW/W-CENTRAL/SW TX WITH DAMAGING
HAIL/GUSTS BEING PRINCIPAL CONCERNS. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOME PORTIONS OF CORRIDOR FROM SPS-DRT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY DRYLINE OVER WRN PANHANDLE THEN SSEWD TO
JUST S LBB...THEN SSWWD TO NRN FRINGES OF LARGE TSTM COMPLEX BETWEEN
FST AND BIG BEND. YOUNGER BUT GROWING TSTM BAND...OVER CAPROCK
REGION E LBB...SHOULD MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO ITS SW
ACROSS MAF-BPG AREA. EACH RESULTING MCS SHOULD GROW/DEEPEN ITS COLD
POOL...WHILE FORWARD-PROPAGATING EWD INTO BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MIXING FOR
MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUST THREAT. PRE-STORM MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG
IS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS. STRONGER CINH IS APPARENT AHEAD OF SRN
COMPLEX...WHERE EML BASE WARMTH IS MAXIMIZED IN 700-750 MB LAYER.
STORM-SCALE FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL SHOULD
OVERCOME THAT FOR SOME UNCERTAIN DISTANCE EWD ACROSS SW TX BEFORE
MCS DISSIPATES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING GIANT/DAMAGING HAIL...WHEREVER STORMS CAN
REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE THROUGH MATURE STAGE...WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR CAPROCK. 4.25 INCH STONES ALREADY
REPORTED IN BORDEN COUNTY AROUND 2230Z.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29520278 29920304 30080373 30350277 30940268 31570271
33570247 34100232 34229958 34159889 32889903 32119909
30779978 29610028 28270028 28440032 28770052 29110071
29300086 29520121 29770143 29800189 29770211 29880231
29750232 29730264 29520278
1578 aspectre: This 15inch(38centimetre)wide TasmanianKingCrab weighing 15pounds(6.8kilograms)...
1586 Grothar: Wow, that picture wants to make me go melt some butter.

The crab will probably appreciate your thoughtfulness as he dips you in.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm northeast of Bucklin should become tornado warned soon.

Greensburg is on a collision course with the main rotation.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have had to say this 3 times this year but Greensburg needs to watch out. Cell to its South West is starting to acquire decent rotation.

And of course the part that could produce a tornado is heading right at Greensburg, as always.
The current Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the storm was cancelled, meaning they are probably planning to issue a Tornado Warning.
These two cells are quite potent.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MULLINVILLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN DODGE CITY.

&&
Greensburg in the middle of tornado warning.
The tornado signature continues to strengthen....this could be bad.
1636. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current Effective Storm Relative Helicity:



Current Mid-level LCL Heights:



Current Surface-based CAPE:


I sure would appreciate images where I knew the source.
Everybody in Greensburg, KS needs to be taking shelter right now. Look at that amazing hook.

Almost all the cells near dodge city have acquired rotation new TVS!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tornado signature continues to strengthen....this could be bad.

One of the best formed hook echos I've seen in a while... very tight rotation, even though it isn't the strongest
Truly an amazing event: 3, possibly 4 soon, tornado warned storms basically on top of each other

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SITKA. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROTECTION...BUTTERMILK...LAKE COLDWATER AND COLDWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9973 3735 9934 3722 9913 3713 9911
3699 9952 3699 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 229DEG 25KT 3706 9955
HAIL 1.50IN

$$

18



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Overall, it looks like the Texas Panhandle is a good place to be for very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The HRRR had some large supercells blowing up there around this timeframe.


Just to the west of Okc looks real good too
Every single one of these cells will be tornado warned.
The folks at NWS Dodge City are earning their money and then some tonight...
The supercell has turned north slightly and appears weaker...it is probably cycling. It looks like Greensburg won't take a direct hit.

Greensburg cell has a weak tornado most likely. Beautiful presentation just not much velocity wise.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The supercell has turned north slightly and appears weaker...it is probably cycling. It looks like Greensburg is safe.



Twenty minutes til it's right over them do u think there is time to recycle back?
Greensburg needs to take cover NOW!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The supercell has turned north slightly and appears weaker...it is probably cycling. It looks like Greensburg is safe.

I can't believe you just said Greensburg is safe. No where close. Could always acquire a more right based track at any time.
All 4

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SUN CITY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUN CITY...CROFT...COATS...CULLISON AND SAWYER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 9890 3747 9856 3725 9904 3734 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 228DEG 30KT 3733 9902
HAIL <.50IN

$$

33

I count what looks like 5 ongoing supercells (a rarity!) in the WFO Dodge City area. 4 of which seem to have enough space from other storms to be potential tornado producers. Good news thus far, although there are decent good echoes on almost all of them, they do not appear to be associated with tight, near-surface circulations but instead broad-scale mesocyclones. Judging from past experience with the supercell near Dodge City just a bit earlier, I'd imagine that this could change quickly.

Quoting bappit:

I sure would appreciate images where I knew the source.


Looks like they came from the mesoanalysis products of GREarth.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I can't believe you just said Greensburg is safe. No where close. Could always acquire a more right based track at any time.

Yeah, I revised my comment a second ago to say it wouldn't take a direct hit. Noticed my mistake. :P
1652. Speeky
looks like greensberg is under the gun again.
Quoting Ameister12:
Greensburg needs to take cover NOW!


Is tht a devree ball on the end of the hook? Prolly night...
5 areas with rotation only 1 is not warned.
Jeez...

Quoting Speeky:
looks like greensberg is under the gun again.


RIGHT TURN
1657. Speeky
nevermind
1658. Speeky
nevermind
I hate speaking too soon. Ignore my previous comments about Greensburg being too safe...
The Greensburg storm is the strongest of the bunch
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I revised my comment a second ago to say it wouldn't take a direct hit. Noticed my mistake. :P
Ok well we all make mistakes. Still looks like Greensburg is in deep trouble. Making a right turn now.
Greensburg in staring down a barrel of a gun.
2339Z: Based on the tight velocity couplet and associated spike in spectrum width, it is possible that a weak, small tornado is on the ground between Mullinville and Greensburg.

Other cells continue with more broad-scale rotation.
Tornado warning reissued on the northernmost storm, Ed O'Neal still has a nice wall cloud
Quoting weatherh98:
Greensburg in staring down a barrel of a gun.
Its going to be real close. Not sure if it turned right enough for impact of greensburg but wow will it be close.
Quoting weatherh98:


Is tht a devree ball on the end of the hook? Prolly night...


No.
Wow! I wasn't expecting this.
The Greensburg storm may have weakened a tad... The storm SE of it is getting more impressive
Great real time updates, wow this looks bad. Saving grace may be these are easily some of the most experienced people in dealing with this situation. No confirmations yet of damage?
About 2 miles away...

Not that it's not a bad situation, but its a darn good thing this rotation isn't very strong.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Greensburg storm may have weakened a tad... The storm SE of it is getting more impressive
Sadly its not the fasting moving thing on the planet so it still has some time to re-cycle.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Great real time updates, wow this looks bad. Saving grace may be these are easily some of the most experienced people in dealing with this situation. No confirmations yet of damage?

No confirmations of touchdowns at all yet
Quoting Tribucanes:
Great real time updates, wow this looks bad. Saving grace may be these are easily some of the most experienced people in dealing with this situation. No confirmations yet of damage?

There have been no confirmations of damage nor any tornadoes yet. That doesn't mean there isn't any on the ground though, as they storms are likely all rain/hail wrapped.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its going to be real close. Not sure if it turned right enough for impact of greensburg but wow will it be close.
yes thats for sure
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
About 2 miles away...

Not that it's not a bad situation, but its a darn good thing this rotation isn't very strong.

Seems that Greensburg has been lucky with tornadoes for the past couple years. Especially this year.
DDC: 4 SW Greensburg [Kiowa Co, KS] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 06:41 PM CDT -- the tornado was rain wrapped and on the ground. it soon lifted, only to produce another funnel a short distance away.
Live coverage:
reports first tornado touchdown near Greensburg
http://www.ksn.com/content/weather/liveradar.aspx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There have been no confirmations of damage nor any tornadoes yet. That doesn't mean there isn't any on the ground though, as they storms are likely all rain/hail wrapped.

Not all of them.

Although radar information continues to indicate a situation where a tornado may be possible, there is very little to suggest that any strong tornadoes are ongoing.

Confirmed brief tornado touched down and lifted just west of Greensburg. Appears to have been associated with a couple scans ago, when there was a weak couplet and a SW spike. Doesn't appear to be there any longer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
DDC: 4 SW Greensburg [Kiowa Co, KS] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 06:41 PM CDT
Ow wonderful. Still has not hit the town yet either. This is really bad. Nvm that was 11min ago. Could have lifted.
Well, moment of truth right here... The rotation is coming over the town right now
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No.


Thanks i meant to say not, not night
Eastern most storm is very impressive.
1684. Speeky
some pretty nice hail storms in west texas


3.75 inch hail stones.
Five years ago this week, an EF5 tornado hit the city of Greensburg, KS. It wiped out the entire place.

Thankfully this is not a repeat, but people need to be in their shelter right now.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Well, moment of truth right here... The rotation is coming over the town right now


I think best shot of a tornado was behind it
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Eastern most storm is very impressive.

The town of Sun City may be taking a direct hit from a tornado with that one
Going to have 5 tornado warned cells soon. The unwarned cell South East of Kinsley will be warned soon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Five years ago this week, an EF5 tornado hit the city of Greensburg, KS. It wiped out the entire place.

Thankfully this is not a repeat, but people need to be in their shelter right now.



Nothing close to that happening at this time.
Objective Analysis reveals that the greater tornado threat is in the Texas Panhandle. I wouldn't rule out a strong tornado or two if any cell can go tornadic.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Nothing close to that happening at this time.

That's what I said. :P


This tornado count will most likely rise.
2353Z: New supercell forming just east of Dodge City - close to Windhorst. Notice the BWER and hail core almost over the updraft.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
2353Z: New supercell forming just east of Dodge City - close to Windhorst. Notice the BWER and hail core almost over the updraft.
Was the one I was talking about. Will be warned soon.
1695. Speeky
this isn't a pretty sight.
2358Z: Looks like a small tornadic circulation may have just formed on the east side of Greensburg. Evident on SW and NROT products, in addition to the 0.5deg velocity couplet.
Greensburg storm no longer tornado warned
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Greensburg storm no longer tornado warned

It was just being reissued.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Greensburg storm no longer tornado warned

Never mind

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GREENSBURG. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAVILAND AND WELLSFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS CONFIRMED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN DODGE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9934 3766 9939 3774 9906 3773 9901
3753 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 257DEG 19KT 3759 9924
HAIL 1.75IN

$$

GERARD



Quoting ScottLincoln:
2358Z: Looks like a small tornadic circulation may have just formed on the east side of Greensburg. Evident on SW and NROT products, in addition to the 0.5deg velocity couplet.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Greensburg storm no longer tornado warned

Just reissued.
The Claude TX cell seems like it may want to try and produce.
1703. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

KSC047-010015-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120501T0015Z/
EDWARDS KS-
650 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES NORTH OF
OFFERLE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PING PONG
BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OFFERLE...
KINSLEY...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9957 3798 9957 3806 9937 3783 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 259DEG 15KT 3793 9953
HAIL 1.50IN

$$

SUGDEN
These two storms are about to collide.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These two storms are about to collide.


Yeah, I think tornado potential is going down as these storms choke each other off
Hook has reformed just east of Greensburg. The storm cycled as it passed through the city.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These two storms are about to collide.



ehhh one would prolly choke the other off but idk hust my guess
Well, good news: The rotation has passed Greensburg and I don't see a debris ball so I think they made out alright
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Just a mess...
What are the chances of these tornado warned cells getting near the Wichita area?
1713. Speeky
this looks impressive
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a mess...
Agreed. I don't think anyone was expecting it.
Look at the BWER...more commonly known as the doughnut hole.

Wow greensburg cell is almost moving east now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at the BWER...more commonly known as the doughnut hole.



Can we just call it an eye? For theatrics?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at the BWER...more commonly known as the doughnut hole.



Would actually be much more impressive if it were higher up in the storm and the RFD hadn't cut off the inflow at the surface. Seems like it was more caused by the occlusion than by an updraft holding precipitation aloft.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...SRN KS...SWRN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 302355Z - 010200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

RAPID DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH OF SUPERCELLS HAS OCCURRED INVOF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN KS AND EXTREME NWRN OK...WITH FIVE
WELL-DEFINED SRM COUPLETS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF
COMANCHE/BARBER/KIOWA/EDWARDS COUNTIES KS AS OF 2345Z. TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM
PAWNEE/STAFFORD COUNTIES KS TO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES OK...IN
HELICITY/VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT OF WARM-FRONTAL ZONE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT FROM EXTREME NERN OK
WNWWD...PASSING OBLIQUELY ACROSS KS/OK BORDER INVOF I-35 TO NW
P28...WHERE IT BECOMES LOST IN GROWING AREA OF SVR TSTMS. WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD OVER MORE OF EXTREME SRN KS.
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXTEND JUST E OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
KS AND N-CENTRAL OK...WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND. DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MCS WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOWING
CHARACTERISTICS AND SVR WIND SWATH APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE AS
SUPERCELLS AGGREGATE TOGETHER OVER SRN KS. ANY SUCH COMPLEX WOULD
MOVE EWD TO ESEWD...FOLLOWING INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE...AND ENHANCED BY NEARLY ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF
MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO LIKELY
CONVECTIVE ALIGNMENT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES MINOR BUT
POTENTIALLY INFLUENTIAL UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING EWD ACROSS
CAO/SPD AREA...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS IN IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK CONVECTION. IN LOW LEVELS...FAVORABLE WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY INCREASING LLJ AFTER
00Z...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS AND ALSO BOOSTING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012
Quoting HurricaneTracker01:
What are the chances of these tornado warned cells getting near the Wichita area?
If the southern most cell is able to keep it together the whole way then yes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at the BWER...more commonly known as the doughnut hole.



WOOWWW
1722. Speeky
watch this video:
Link
WFUS54 KOUN 010026
TOROUN

OKC003-010100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0040.120501T0026Z-120501T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ALFALFA COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 723 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
4 MILES WEST OF JET. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 9810 3671 9811 3663 9828 3672 9837
3687 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 227DEG 19KT 3668 9827

$$

Quoting Ameister12:
Hook has reformed just east of Greensburg. The storm cycled as it passed through the city.


Does this mean Greensburg thankfully got lucky and unscathed?
Quoting Speeky:
watch this video:
Link


LOL. A good chuckle for the evening.
One of these days I'm going to make a big story when one of those kinds of people calls our office. I'll say something about how we used our HAARP in a concentrated beam to create the chemtrails that caused last night's storm. Or something like that. They'll freak out... I'll laugh.
TORNADO WARNING
KYC073-010100-
/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0087.120501T0027Z-120501T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
827 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKFORT...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

* AT 826 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKFORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SWITZER AND ELSINORE...
ELMVILLE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.
And despite the tropical claims, it feels like late October or early November here today... that kinda "tropical" storm, with the air temps cool despite whatever humidity there is.

Rain, wind and about 70 here...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Does this mean Greensburg thankfully got lucky and unscathed?

Yes, the might have gotten lucky. There was a reported tornado near Greensburg, but it could have lifted before hitting the city.
So many cells
The storm with the largest tornado warning heading for Medicine Lodge looks pretty good
1731. 2atod
Quoting Speeky:
watch this video:
Link


I can't believe this is allowed on here. This is utterly ridiculous. This is a weather site, not a conspiracy theory site. Please go and take a critical thinking class.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
So many cells


I know...four are ganging up in south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma...and there's another (but sloppy looking one) over Frankfort, Kentucky...
Quoting 2atod:


I can't believe this is allowed on here. This is utterly ridiculous. This is a weather site, not a conspiracy theory site. Please go and take a critical thinking class.
Think he was joking.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The storm with the largest tornado warning heading for Medicine Lodge looks pretty good


Yeah...Medicine Lodge could be in big trouble...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
840 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

* AT 838 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NORTHEAST
OF FRANKFORT.
THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WOULD BE NEAR
WATKINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
SKINNERSBURG AND LONGLICK...
MALLARD POINT AND BIDDLE...
TURKEY FOOT AND DOUBLE CULVERT...
DAVIS AND HINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TAKE COVER NOW! TORNADOES AT NIGHT CAN BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT
WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 8455 3846 8453 3844 8453 3842 8449
3827 8444 3818 8472 3819 8473 3819 8472
3822 8473 3835 8474 3837 8471 3850 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 245DEG 38KT 3828 8471

$$

AL
RIP pre-92L. :P
No one can deny it had a chance, but the surface low (a closed and well defined LLC) broke off into the GOM, probably due to land interaction. The LLC is just west of key west, and the upper level storm is being sheared to bits.
I hate the NWS radar...you can't zoom in toward which cities these supercells are at. Does anyone have a good radar site where you can zoom in and see all the communities nearby?

Thanks...
Quoting winter123:
RIP pre-92L. :P
No one can deny it had a chance, but the surface low (a closed and well defined LLC) broke off into the GOM and the upper level storm is being sheared to bits.

Being totally honest, it never had a chance... Not with 25-30 knots of shear... Maybe in August it would've stood at least a chance, but not in April
i see a spin off the coast on miami,FL
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
i see a spin off the coast on miami,FL

Read post 1736
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I hate the NWS radar...you can't zoom in toward which cities these supercells are at. Does anyone have a good radar site where you can zoom in and see all the communities nearby?

Thanks...


WeatherUnderground.
0046Z: Tiny TS evident over the lake near KVNX radar in northern Oklahoma. Off the same radar, circulation and hook look more impressive for the storm near Aetna, KS.
Quoting winter123:
RIP pre-92L. :P
No one can deny it had a chance, but the surface low (a closed and well defined LLC) broke off into the GOM, probably due to land interaction. The LLC is just west of key west, and the upper level storm is being sheared to bits.


Laugh out loud it had a .5 chance we got hyped up gotta get the cane jitters out!
Quoting ScottLincoln:
0046Z: Tiny TS evident over the lake near KVNX radar in northern Oklahoma. Off the same radar, circulation and hook look more impressive for the storm near Aetna, KS.

Yeah the rotation looks really good to me on that Aetna storm
Need ta13 because he posts map haha
Storm heading towards Anthony really needs a tornado warning.
Wow...

1749. bappit
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I hate the NWS radar...you can't zoom in toward which cities these supercells are at. Does anyone have a good radar site where you can zoom in and see all the communities nearby?

Thanks...

Ja, WU shows major roads and town names ... though I can zoom in on the NWS web site radar.
Really needs a warning.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Really needs a warning.


Rotation is wayyyyyyy to broad
1753. bappit
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Think he was joking.

I do agree with you, but if we are wrong he might as well have been. Just so long we don't get this over and over again.
Notice that the Greensburg storm is almost done
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
819 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 815 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF AMORITA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTHONY...WALDRON...ATTICA...CORWIN AND CRYSTAL SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9836 3710 9836 3713 9835 3736 9810
3709 9787 3699 9810 3699 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 236DEG 19KT 3703 9828

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

SMITH
Quoting weatherh98:


Rotation is wayyyyyyy to broad
Yah sure that is why it was just tornado warned.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


Although it has tightened up
Quoting weatherh98:
Notice that the Greensburg storm is almost done

Greensburg's about to take another hard hit from a line of storms... Non tornadic ones, thankfully, but maybe some damaging winds
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah sure that is why it was just tornado warned.


Just took note that it tightened up, it's still not high-fantastical
Quoting weatherh98:


Rotation is wayyyyyyy to broad

Yeah, its too broad. If it tightens up, it will be a monster. But that is a big "if".
Strongest of the day.
I think this recent unfolding of events has taken a lot of people by surprise. Mesoscale Analysis would suggest the most favorable area for tornadoes is in the Texas Panhandle, yet the bulk of the activity is occurring in southern portions of Kansas. A combination of strong low-level wind shear and the storms being in a favorable area for local enhancement of helicity values/vorticity is aiding in tornadogenesis, but a lack of strong upper level wind shear and higher instability is preventing these storms from keeping tornadoes on the ground for a prolonged period of time.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Greensburg's about to take another hard hit from a line of storms... Non tornadic ones, thankfully, but maybe some damaging winds


Yup linear storms are moving in
Totally unrelated storm:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

OKC105-010145-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120501T0145Z/
NOWATA OK-
813 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
NOWATA COUNTY...

AT 809 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF
NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED
.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3685 9543 3660 9543 3668 9573 3673 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 245DEG 5KT 3671 9571

$$

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Strongest of the day.

Still just a tad broad... If that tightens up then look out.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Strongest of the day.


Now that's more than likely a tornado/ funnel
The supercell heading for Anthony is very impressive.
Quoting Ameister12:
The supercell heading for Anthony is very impressive.


I that a debree ball, stronger now
Are we talking about the same Anthony here? Doesn't look impressive at all to me.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we talking about the same Anthony here? Doesn't look impressive at all to me.



The other maps make it look a ton worse lol

I don't have GRLEVEL3
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we talking about the same Anthony here? Doesn't look impressive at all to me.


It was rather impressive not long ago, but it obviously weakened now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we talking about the same Anthony here? Doesn't look impressive at all to me.


It fell apart...

Quoting sunlinepr:


Nice dose of rain on the way for me tomorrow
It's very close to the radar site so it's hard to tell but the storm near Medford looks to be very strong
Wow!
GRlevel2 and GRlevel3 often show signatures to be more severe than they usually are because those two radar programs "correct" the data received to increase readability. That's why they are usually used by storm chasers, especially GRlevel3.

GR2Analyst on the other hand reads raw data, which is why you could say it looks messy.

That's your lesson for tonight.
We need a standard inflow outflow map
1778. bappit
As Joe Bastardi has taught us, you don't have to be right. You just have to sound good.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GRlevel2 and GRlevel3 often show signatures to be more severe than they usually are because those two radar programs "correct" the data received to increase readability. That's why they are usually used by storm chasers, especially GRlevel3.

GR2Analyst on the other hand reads raw data, which is why you could say it looks messy.

That's your lesson for tonight.


Which is "better" in terms of accuracy
Medford storm has had fantastic rotation with TVS for a while now.
Come on....get out of close range...



Quoting weatherh98:


Which is "better"

That is up to the user ;)

As for me, I prefer GR2Analyst.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on....get out of close range...




That is up to the user ;)

As for me, I prefer GR2Analyst.


That's what I figured, btw that map looks sick
This does not look good at all.

Still waiting for it to get away from the radar site.

This is rare.
LARGE TORNADO on the ground heading for Medford
http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/
There is a violent tornado on the ground right now headed towards Medford.
Good lord this is rare.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a violent tornado on the ground right now headed towards Medford.


Don't say violent people will take it out of context
This is not normal.

This is a very violent and dangerous tornado.

We have a pink TVS.

Oh no.

Wow that's a nasty line developing in the central US, was that forecast-ed.
Possible power flashes near Medford. Extremely dangerous situation for Medford.
wow.. be careful medford... that velocity is serious..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not normal.

This is a very violent and dangerous tornado.

We have a pink TVS.

Oh no.



Good Lord!!!
Everybody in Medford and Clyde needs to be underground right now. There is a large and extremely dangerous tornado that has been causing power flashes as reported by storm chasers.

The particular storm chasers here said he was getting 85 mph winds 6 miles away from the tornado.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not normal.

This is a very violent and dangerous tornado.

We have a pink TVS.

Oh no.

These are you EF3+ type signatures.


just nasty.
1799. fishcop
hello fellow weather geeks - June 1 coming up!
Its held purple TVS for 2 frames its no mistake now.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:


just nasty.
Its so strong its moving NW?!?!
This rotation is extremely violent!
Quoting evilpenguinshan:


just nasty.

The circulation is splitting in two.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Everybody in Medford and Clyde needs to be underground right now. There is a large and extremely dangerous tornado that has been causing power flashes as reported by storm chasers.

The particular storm chasers here said he was getting 85 mph winds 6 miles away from the tornado.



Is that another vortex
second circulation now to the south of medford..
It just split into 2 supercells. The northern one moving NW. This is classic super cell behavior you typically see in the early stages of a super cells. Its very rare you see it this late.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow.

One moving north west should die while one moving west will get stronger.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow.



All the energy split into the southerly cell, we still may have two tornadoes
Rope/elephant truck tornado on the ground.
any damg reports?
I hate leaving now but good night
Quoting weatherh98:


All the energy split into the southerly cell, we still may have two tornadoes
Not so much a split of energy as its just the storm moving NW cannot support themselves.
What happened was that the rear flank downdraft wrapped around and is choking out the old cell to the NW. It's possible that the new rotation to the E will develop a tornado as the RFD increases the updraft there.
An elephant trunk tornado is being confirmed right now west of Medford.
Okay.... I'm usually on the sidelines, just taking look at what you guys have to say in here. But tonight, between the "real time television content" and your comments, you have me on the edge of my seat this evening. Kudos, guys!

Lin
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
An elephant trunk tornado is being confirmed right now west of Medford.
Actually its the one moving North West.
Old circulation is much weaker, but still producing a tornado. (The elephant trunk tornado I mentioned.)
elephant trunk tornado?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What happened was that the rear flank downdraft wrapped around and is choking out the old cell to the NW. It's possible that the new rotation to the E will develop a tornado as the RFD increases the updraft there.
Actually the cell just split.
Large cone tornado entering Medford right now.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Actually the cell just split.
Watch the velocity loops. You can clearly see the RFD overtake the old cell... It split because of that process.
Its going to hit Medford just took a more north turn.
We have two tornadoes on the ground right now...A rope/elephant trunk tornado near Wakita (as of 5 minutes ago) and a cone tornado entering Medford.

Power is out in Medford.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Watch the velocity loops. You can clearly see the RFD overtake the old cell... It split because of that process.
Actually the north storm seems like its starting to get better organized again. Also tornado has not hit Medford yet.
Power flashes in Medford.
Just impacted Medford.
Who is broadcasting live? With sound.
Power flashes possibly in Medford. Very dangerous situation for Medford with significant tornado confirmed on the ground.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Actually the north storm seems like its starting to get better organized again. Also tornado has not hit Medford yet.
Supercells can go through cycles like this. It is what produces "tornado families"
Large debris cloud in Medford.

(sad face)
Debris cloud confirmed on the ground and on radar.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is broadcasting live? With sound.

KFOR Live Streaming
Huge debris cloud in Medford. Damage is being done in the town.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Supercells can go through cycles like this. It is what produces "tornado families"
And we may remember this one for a while.
I should never ever try to get ready for bed again. That is exactly when the supercells ramp up the insanity.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is broadcasting live? With sound.


Hi. Not often that I post here but for once I can answer a question!

http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
And we may remember this one for a while.
I'm afraid you may be right.
"Something big just got hit."

Jeez, this isn't good.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
And we may remember this one for a while.
This is connected to the north storm.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It just split into 2 supercells. The northern one moving NW. This is classic super cell behavior you typically see in the early stages of a super cells. Its very rare you see it this late.


Doesn't look like two supercells. It looks like one supercell with an area of rotation occluding while a new area forms to it's east/southeast. Not all that atypical for strong supercells.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Doesn't look like two supercells. It looks like one supercell with an area of rotation occluding while a new area forms to it's east/southeast. Not all that atypical for strong supercells.
Yah I just realized that.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Hi. Not often that I post here but for once I can answer a question!

http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/



Thank you!
Based on the KFOR-TV radar, there might be a debris ball. What do you guys think?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have two tornadoes on the ground right now...A rope/elephant trunk tornado near Wakita (as of 5 minutes ago) and a cone tornado entering Medford.

Power is out in Medford.



The supercell is splitting...
He says it weakening and it might be but not for long. Yellow TVS now.
Quoting Ameister12:
Based on the KFOR-TV radar, their might be a debris ball. What do you guys think?


Based on that radar image alone, no. Red-colored reflectivities in a hook do not necessarily mean debris ball.


Sponge Blob Square Pants...
Alright, I have to go to bed guys.

Gotta get ready for school and an even bigger day tomorrow.

While my GR2Analyst catches up to the game, just wanted to pass along a note. Red/purple TVS detections in GR2Analyst are rare. I've seen only a few causes where a purple TVS is not associated with a significant tornado (strong/violent). Also, with the radar beam sampling from KVNX at this low of an elevation and at this resolution, a wider tornado will appear as a TS instead of a TVS, and SW spikes will not be as evident.
hopefully this 30% doesn't bust like the last one we had here - I wanna see some real storms in the twin cities tomorrow =)

goodnight to you.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright, I have to go to bed guys.

Gotta get ready for school and an even bigger day tomorrow.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


The supercell is splitting...


Nope, just one particularly potent cyclic supercell.
One that is about to get overtaken by an outflow-dominant cluster to the west.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright, I have to go to bed guys.

Gotta get ready for school and an even bigger day tomorrow.



G'night. Thanks for some very interesting reading this evening.

Lin


chaser says this one is one the ground or will be shortly
1856. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

AMZ610-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-071-072-168 -172-010430-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
1008 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.NOW...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ONSHORE AFFECTING
NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY AND THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTLINES.
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN INLAND BUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC MAY PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND MARINERS NEED
TO BE CAUTIOUS.

$$
1857. LargoFl
good night guys,stay safe out there........................TORNADO WARNING
OKC053-071-010300-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0044.120501T0228Z-120501T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 920 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO AND
RADAR DETECTS A TORNADO ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF MEDFORD. THIS
TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THOSE RESPONDING TO REPORTS OF INJURY
OR DAMAGE IN AND AROUND MEDFORD SHOULD BE PREPARE FOR ANOTHER
STORM. WINDS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAMAN...DEER CREEK...NARDIN...RENFROW AND HUNNEWELL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 221 AND 234.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9729 3678 9772 3696 9767 3701 9741
3700 9735 3700 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 254DEG 12KT 3680 9769

$$
Quoting ScottLincoln:
While my GR2Analyst catches up to the game, just wanted to pass along a note. Red/purple TVS detections in GR2Analyst are rare. I've seen only a few causes where a purple TVS is not associated with a significant tornado (strong/violent). Also, with the radar beam sampling from KVNX at this low of an elevation and at this resolution, a wider tornado will appear as a TS instead of a TVS, and SW spikes will not be as evident.


Upton reviewing the data further, I would say that I am fairly confident that the circulation that occluded and moved north toward Wakita within the last 30min was a strong tornado (EF2+ for buildings in the path). Luckily the area appears very rural, although the debris signature was pretty clear on radar, directly in conjunction with the 170kt+ shear at less than 1000ft AGL. Wow.
Messy but stronger.
1861. Tygor
April comes to an end, some maxima for the month:

Temperature: 98.1 °F
Dew Point: 71.8 °F
Humidity: 95.0%
Wind Speed: 14.5mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 27.3mph from the SE
Precipitation: 0.07in

Weather restrictions in STAGE 2

We could really use some rain, but there is no chance of it for the next ten days apparently. We need a tropical storm pretty bad at this point.
Quoting sunlinepr:
@reedtimmerTVN - News9 is not reporting damage in Medford. There was a home damaged and some barns destroyed west of town but main town ok.
They got REALLY lucky the storm was 1 wobble away from hitting the town.
Wow this is a crazy day.
Pond Creek storm is now the more dominate.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
They got REALLY lucky the storm was 1 wobble away from hitting the town.

It actually kinda looks like there was a tornado that weakened as it was moving into Medford, then a new tornado formed just on the east side. Similar to the Greensburg, KS, case from earlier today, but probably stronger tornadoes this time.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

It actually kinda looks like there was a tornado that weakened as it was moving into Medford, then a new tornado formed just on the east side. Similar to the Greensburg, KS, case from earlier today, but probably stronger tornadoes this time.
I have to ask you what is with these storms going all directions NW,NE,N,E,SE, they are going everywhere.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
They got REALLY lucky the storm was 1 wobble away from hitting the town.
Maybe not, because on twitter there are some reports of heavy damage.... will have to wait...
Pond Creek seems to just have a VERY strong meso right now. Good base for large tornadoes.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Have to double check, because on twitter there are some reports of damage....
Yes but not a direct hit on the town.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I have to ask you what is with these storms going all directions NW,NE,N,E,SE, they are going everywhere.


The storms in general seem to be going in a NEerly direction. Storms that get surface-based then seem to be right-turning such that they are going Easterly or Southeastly. Some of the more outflow dominant storms seem to be going southeasterly. I've seen a few circulations moving at deviant directions compared to the parent storms, although the circulations seem to do that when they are occluding; left-curving during occlusion isn't all that atypical...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Watch live streaming video from innovationwx at livestream.com

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 5982



Yo! Can you change that to a link? Thanks!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Maybe not, because on twitter there are some reports of heavy damage.... will have to wait...


no injuries yet...mostly barn damage,,,
Quoting presslord:


Yo! Can you change that to a link? Thanks!
Thank you for asking that. Night all.
Tweets Top / All
42s KXAN Weather KXAN Weather ‏ @KXAN_Weather

Looks like Medford, OK may have dodged a bullet. Tornado damage reported just east and west of the town. Weather is coming up on KXAN.
2m Dan Skoff Dan Skoff ‏ @weatherdan

@spann Medford narrowly missed tornado damage. Major damage 1 mile W of Medford & 6 miles E of Medford, but nothing in town of Medford.
In reply to James Spann 
3m David Barouski David Barouski ‏ @TornadoesDave

Prelim report is a #tornado barely missed #Medford #Oklahoma but has been some damage rpts near town but nothing major that Ive heard of yet
Quoting presslord:


Yo! Can you change that to a link? Thanks!


Done.... My bad....
thanks the voices in the echo chamber have now stopped
Quoting sunlinepr:


Done....


XXXOOO

99mb Low?

Greenland is getting the whip!!!
They posted this as the photo of that tornado.....

Link

Watching JoeMiller. They were in hail. Now occasional cloud to ground lightning.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

99mb Low?

Greenland is getting the whip!!!


DOOM!!!

Several powerlines on Highway 11, about three and half miles east of Medford, are reportedly down at this point, blocking the highway.



Link

MEDFORD, Oklahoma -

A tornado touched down near Medford, Oklahoma, Monday night and caused severe damage in the area.

At about 9:20 p.m. Monday, a tornado touched down near Medford. News 9 Storm Tracker Val Castor reports seeing major damage about one mile west of Medford. One home and several barns were damaged.

Several power poles on Highway 11, about three and half miles east of Medford, are reportedly down at this point, blocking the highway.

No damage have been reported in the city of Medford. There is no power in the Medford area at this time.
This is eerie these guys chasin in the dark. It looked big..
Good Night All, Stay Safe, Sleep Well.
Sounds like people are fleeing the town there. They are wondering why the sirens aren't going off.
They're going to check out the lightning fire.
Anyone in the southern california area experiencing any weirdness with their pets? Had a guy tell us all his animals started freaking out along with some neighbors pets. Have to wonder if an earthquake is coming.
Crazy weather all over the world. There's a bizarre retrograding low over western Europe. Probably a product of the globally-warmed atmosphere. Meteorologist Stu Ostro has done a good job documenting these patterns -- I hope he's taking notice of this one. The UK, which had been battling a severe drought, has been completely inundated with heavy rains. Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe are basking in a record heat wave that's on par with what hit the eastern & central US last month, as southerly winds pump up globally-warmed Saharan air. It was in the mid and upper 80s around Vienna today as people flocked poolside... lower Austria reached 90. Places with periods of record 200+ years flew past all-time record highs. Moscow and Prague had incredibly warm readings in the middle 80s.

The only reason I noticed this is because this morning I was checking out a new feature on the local news weather page called "Futurecast" which models sky and precipitation conditions. It actually modeled the weather for the entire globe and I was playing around with it. Got to Europe and saw this bizarre spiral that looked like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. I'm like what the heck is that? So I did a news search to see what was going on and sure enough, it's some more climate craziness.
1890. ycd0108
#1888: your post made me pay attention. I may be closer to any event than folks in California. Just now there is a noticeble lack of normal birdsong. Hummm
We will see
my new avatar for 2012 season

Japanese artist Isao Hashimoto has created a beautiful, undeniably scary time-lapse map of the 2053 nuclear explosions which have taken place between 1945 and 1998, beginning with the Manhattan Project’s “Trinity” test near Los Alamos and concluding with Pakistan’s nuclear tests in May of 1998. This leaves out North Korea’s two alleged nuclear tests in this past decade (the legitimacy of both of which is not 100% clear).

The storm they were chasin weakened as three cells came together. Now looks like a tornado has dropped from the tail of that. May go south of Altus, may not. Chasers were a little north but turned around, driving away from it, after a less impressive looking cell..
wow brave souls chasing these. Glad that didn't drop five to ten minutes earlier. Mean looking.
Waukomis, OK maybe having a tornado dropping down on them.
Caribbean nations warned to prepare for ‘giant’ tsunami
Posted on April 30, 2012



April 30, 2012 – CARIBBEAN – A leading expert at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) is urging the Caribbean’s 40 million people to be prepared for a tsunami, two years ahead of a planned early warning system for the region. Watson-Wright, assistant director-general and executive secretary of the UNESCO-Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, has agreed with other leading tsunami experts that it is a case of “when, not if” the region would be struck by the giant waves triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity, Watson-Wright noted. “Lurking beneath the azure waters that wash up on countless coastal and island beaches and vacation spots is the potential for a devastating tsunami,” she said. In addition to the 40 million people living in the region, she said 22 million people visit the Caribbean annually, making the region “extremely vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis.” Since 1498 there have been at least 94 tsunamis with run-ups reported in the Caribbean region, causing 4,652 deaths, Watson-Wright said. She said most of these tsunamis were associated with underwater, or what are called submarine earthquakes, although the Caribbean Sea region has all of the potential tsunami-generating sources, such as submarine earthquakes, sub-aerial or submarine landslides and volcano activity. Scientists and disaster management officials have said that models predict a tsunami wiping out vast areas in several island nations where most people live in around capitals and low-lying coastal areas. “Sound science-based tsunami inundation modeling has been performed for all of Puerto Rico and several localities in the French Antilles and Venezuela, which demonstrates real tsunami threats for this region,” the UNESCO expert said. –Jamaica Observer

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Skyepone are you watching that cell chase live?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Isn't there some urban legend that earthquakes are many times preceded by strong winds, fireballs, and meteors?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Skyepone are you watching that cell chase live?


Yeah, going between the two. The one in North OK, headed at Waukomis has a tornado warning on it now.
Quoting Skyepony:


Isn't there some urban legend that earthquakes are many times preceded by strong winds, fireballs, and meteors?
i think so have to check it out now
conditions looking like they might warrant an upgrade tomorrow too. Just on radar that looks very strong, any idea the strength of it?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think so have to check it out now


There it is, Wikipedia...second to last sentence under history.
good news is the fireballs, meteors, and strong winds didn't kill him so he was around for the earthquake.
Quoting Tribucanes:
conditions looking like they might warrant an upgrade tomorrow too. Just on radar that looks very strong, any idea the strength of it?


Hard to say with the durations mostly being so short. At brief moments we've had some really strong looking signatures..but conditions haven't been supporting the long tracking 4s & 5s.
Ya that's good that being said NOAA has upped the wording now to lots of ! and rapidly anywhere wording. Thanks for the update. For both those two cells its now worded could form rapidly anywhere in the line!
would think this would be particularly dangerous chasing these storms at least with that wording.
removed
Quoting Skyepony:


There it is, Wikipedia...second to last sentence under history.
i see ya found it
Looks like this cell is going to break free and head towards Tulsa as a giant super-cell. Could this actually strengthen then?
Here comes the rain again....

Morning all.

More rain again here over night. Looks like another inch or so added to the totals. I will check the met office again later this a.m. to see how much we've added.

Hopefully today will be the last day of this rainy scenario, which is very much out of the norm for this time of year. I don't remember the last time we had so many rainy days in April - or in early May, for that matter.

Makes me wonder what else interesting will happen as we head into the rainy season.
1917. LargoFl
Good Morning folks, dry as a bone here still, looks like the Miami moisture isnt coming our way..so back to normal....
1918. LargoFl
1919. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Reminder on changes happening today. Since CWD (Critical Weather Day) is not in effect today, then the NCEP replacement of RUC for RAP would be underway and should take effect by 12Z (in about 1:18hr).

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Morning everyone... Pretty crazy night last night, I don't think anyone anticipated such an event... We should see some more today, and I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC added a moderate risk area

Good morning. A rather rainy period starting today is expected in the Eastern Caribbean islands.

.DISCUSSION...GIVEN FLATTENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ENCROACHING WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE. FOR TODAY...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...TODAY MAY END UP BEING THE BEST WEATHER DAY
OF THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST...
WITH VERY GOOD 850MB-700MB THETA E ADVECTION. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME...AS LOCAL EFFECTS AND WESTERLY VENTILATION COMBINE WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE.

THIS MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...TO GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SLIGHT MOISTURE REDUCTION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TROUGHINESS
GRADUALLY DIGS AND ALIGNS TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STUCK
ACROSS THE FA WILL SPELL TROUBLE...AS LOCAL EFFECTS COMBINE WITH
THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...TO PRODUCE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT...BUT THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS PREVIOUS SCENARIOS LIKE THIS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.
1922. WxLogic
Hopefully we can get an early start on the rainy season soon with all the moisture being injected into the W Carib. and GOM.



Fronts should start having a hard time moving past CFL/SFL this month.
Good morning everyone. And great news! I've determined that there is 30 days, 16 hours, 23 minutes and 13 seconds until Hurricane Season!!! In other words, one month to go until GAMETIME!!!
Good morning, wow do we have a final tally on storm reports?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Good morning everyone. And great news! I've determined that there is 30 days, 16 hours, 23 minutes and 13 seconds until Hurricane Season!!! In other words, one month to go until GAMETIME!!!

29 days 1hr 48mins to go here. lol
Hurricane season is the season for you and me!!.Hurricane season is the season positively!!!!.
Looking at the RGB in motion this morning at the NHC. The surface low that moved from the Keys to the central Gulf looks interesting.
1931. Thrawst
One does not simply get this much rain in April...