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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Developments off the U.S East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:53 PM GMT on July 16, 2006

A cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this weekend and stalled out has created an interesting situation to watch. An extratropical or subtropical low has developed along the north portion of the front, about 300 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Water temperatures are right at the borderline for a tropical storm--about 80 Fahrenheit--so this low is unlikely to develop into a tropical storm as it heads northeast out to sea towards colder water. The low has a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the southeast side of the center of circulation, well removed from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm experiencing significant wind shear. This is the expected development I was referring to this morning in my blog.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the U.S. East Coast.

The departing low has left behind the tail end of the old cold front over the waters off the South Carolina/North Carolina coast. This old front could serve as the focus for some tropical development over the next few days. Already, some tropical-looking thunderstorms have built over the front, in a narrow area of reduced wind shear of 5-10 knots that has developed. The GFS computer model is indicating that the area of reduced shear will remain. Steering currents are weak, so it is difficult to tell where this tropical blob might go. The models seem to lean towards this system heading northeast up the coast, possibly brushing Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia later in the week.

Wind shear visualized
I've linked a photo of an odd fog formation a wunderphotographer in Alaska took--I've never seen anything like this photo! It shows very graphically what strong wind shear can do to contort a cloud into strange shapes. The wind speed and direction are different at the bottom of this fog bank than at the top, creating a twisting, shearing effect on the cloud that bends it into strange shapes. Now imagine what strong wind shear can do to a developing tropical depression--ouch!

Jeff Masters
Fog bank in the high Arctic
Fog bank in the high Arctic
After days of west and north-west winds and heavy fog in Prudhoe Bay Alaska, the wind changed to the south -east....and literally pushed the remaining fog into incredible formations such as the one seen here!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

first!!

we need some action tropics!!! go go go
Thank You for the update Dr.Master's.
I still say this blob off the se coast looks a lot like ts gaston in 2004. i read the archives and it is almost like reading todays forcast.
I give it a 30 percent chance of developing..g2g
This new tropical development is the one we have been looking forward to or excited about. Dr. Masters and Accuweather.com have noticed this and this will probably occur over the next few days. The subtropical low that Dr. Masters has introduced is the one creating the shear over the Carolina disturbance and will not pick up the thunderstorm complex off the South Carolina coast. The complex will stay over warm waters and will begin to attain tropical characteristics within a few days. This may very well be the change we have been waiting for in the tropics and conditions over the complex such as wind shear will begin to become more favorable, and a tropical storm may develop over the next 3 - 4 days.
cool I am going to the beach tusesday so Please do Watch it for me, I was at the Beach when gaston hit so Maybe a repeat? lol
That one appears a bit tropical but, the one talked about earlier is extratropical and going north. This one is going to have a tough time developing if it can.
which one are you talking about turtle?
a href="http://dsc.discovery.com/?clik=www_nav_dsc"
Global Warming what u need to Know tonight at 9 EST/PST Tonight Only on the Discovery Channel
Link

here is the Right link
We had another brief, but strong, T-Storm this afternoon around 4. Quite a bit of lightning. Power went out twice, just long enough to flip all the clocks and TV. Not as much rain as yesterday eve's T-Storm delivered, though. Connected with that front off the Carolina coast?
LOL, weatherhunter...if you're going to be a 'cane magnet, please don't go the beach!
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:11 PM AST on July 16, 2006.
wow that 30kt shear went poof, bye-bye, adios. That was a quick change from earlier today.


thats is the same thing i hinted to my self today.

i can see that shear is decreasing faster than expected

and I think Alex 2004 was near the same location.

this is a 2004-like year..
my .02$....

THIS "WHATEVER" ITS Is, is not forecasted to turn se..... if it does, i think the west coast of florida should be on the lookout. (cape canaveral?) we could have td2 on our hands?

but in a twist, this may be good news, much needed rain, and no real damage with such a weak storm....

thoughts of a se track?
yeah...if i'm correct...shear decreases in the next 2 weeks....waves, which thunderstorms have been remove because of shear...should reappear...in the caribbean after there're atlantic trip....i already spotted 2.
By the way, Alex was not such a weak storm. Link
TD Carlotta 39.69KB

impressive for a td.
As the depression drifted erratically, the system remained weak, due to its large circulation and lack of deep convection near the center. The center relocated to the south , closer to the center.

I'm not saying that this is Hurricane Alex...but similar stituation.

that was an extract from Hurricane Alex History

shear was high, but then an approaching trough lessen the shear....

also dont let July keep your guard down...its not a 2005, but it can be a 2004, or 1992..God forbid
Carlotta is currently the only TS being tracked on the planet! . . . .
Carlotta is not a TS anymore and should dissipate in a few hours. Link
I think since this trough appears to be moving away at least the northern part so the southern part is left alone and stranded for a couple of days over the Gulf Stream and a LLC forms then it could take off for development. This disturbance seems to have a good circulation forming and good thunderstorms in the what seems to be the core or center.
This looks a bit like your pic of the fog. One would expect a gravity wave over a density boundary like that, eh? Then the wind at the top could turn the wave any way it wants, eh?
looks like a toilet bowl
However, the East Pacific is not going to be quiet for long; there are two Invests right now (a while ago, the GFS had three storms forming in the next week; after Bud and Carlotta, it would not be surprising if it occurred).
I dont think that high wind shear is such a blessing.

Hurricane Emily created an upwelling in the northern bay of campeche...that created cool waters...in that area for along time

1992 and 2004...the 2 years started late creating and enviroment that allowed SST to warm...

2004 unleashed 4 storms that to me was more scary beacuse 1 sate was in the cross hairs.

1992 unleashed andrew and no one needs to explain that.

the feeling of quietness gives some hint of the season to come.



is this "disturbance" ever going to stop going south????
18z GFS Vorticity

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data and much more
I wunder what stormtop thinks of this?
SJ, according to that model run whatever it is, it will clear out to the NE before long.
Now it looks like the GFS initiated this part of the disturbance to far S and W.
looks like a toilet bowl

New meaning for the term "floater".
GFS also has the 2 systems stalling to the NE of the Bermuda Azores High and eroding the you know what out of it
bappit, that is the 18z gfs vorticity map. See that area that it has on the GA FL SC coast starting in about 12hrs. It is not closed and shows it forming over land. That, I think is the portion of this disturbance that we need to watch. Whatever is at the tail end. It also shows it just meandering there on the coast through
...about 72hrs

Sorry about that.

Anywho, if that are is further off shore then expected then it will need to be watched. I think it already is.
SJ, look at all those thunderstorms in se geaorgia, heading to n. florida.... could this be what the models sees?
Maybe thel, I noticed that also

SJ
i almost started seeing a se or even east motion..... not sure if its the start of a trend, or a wobble....... cant go south forever!!
where is the second low headed? south fla a possibility?
50. 0741
i think that most likely move alone the coast or move out to sea north carolina and south need watch it as track could be lone the coast
stormw, yep, and heading sse
I agree jphurricane2006 the Low seems to be drifting SE right now.

Also take a look at the 850 MB vorticity there is strong evidence of organization this evening things look to be getting interesting.
is there a slight possibility that it could develop and hit south florida?
Dry air intruding and convection fizzling as well as a cold front coming. Good luck blob, this aint 2005.
Posted By: weatherhunter at 12:04 AM GMT on July 17, 2006.
I wunder what stormtop thinks of this?


StormTop would probably say something like this (grammar errors and misspellings included):

***BEGIN SIMULATION STORMTOP RANT***

THAT BLOB IS NOT GOING TO DEVELOP THEIR IS TO MUCH SHEAR AND DRY AIR THAT WILL BE SURE TO KILL IT...I TOLD YOU PEOPLE I WILL LET YOU KNOW WHEN TO WORRY THERE WILL BE NO STORMS UNTIL MID AUGUST SO YOU CAN WATCH THE BLOBS ALL YOU WANT...THE TROPICS WILL GET GEARED UP IN MID AUGUST AND THERE WILL BE STORMS THEN BUT I TOLD YOU BEFORE NO STORMS THIS MONTH...LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG WE WILL HAVE NO MORE THAN 14 STORMS AND THAT IS A STRETCH...THAT IS WRITTEN IN STONE...YOU PEOPLE NEED TO GET A GRIP AND TAKE ADVICE FROM ME MAYBE YOU WILL LEARN A THING OR TWO...STORMTOP

***END SIMULATION STORMTOP RANT***

Or at least some jibber-jabber like that anyway. Now if that isn't comedy then I don't know what is! :-P
Here is a IR loop of the system....

The first low is done to much shear and cooler waters the Second low has developing High pressure over and 27 28 Degree C water under it... with weak steering currents in all levels although the Deep layer is predomiantly to the SE then S or SW .. that will be the motion of the system over then day or so before a trough that is forcasts later on may try to kick it out, note the high building over the eatern Us is quite strong.
lol quake :)
Here is a IR loop of the system....

The first low is done to much shear and cooler waters the Second low has developing High pressure over and 27 28 Degree C water under it... with weak steering currents in all levels although the Deep layer is predomiantly to the SE then S or SW .. that will be the motion of the system over then day or so before a trough that is forcasts later on may try to kick it out, note the high building over the eatern Us is quite strong.
where is it headed???
Whenever there are weak steering currents, that could spell trouble for the days ahead since it is so much harder to determine the eventual path (as well as strength) of a system. And, of course, the longer it sits out over warm waters with low shear, the more time it has to develop and the stronger it can get.

Now, though it had a different origin, remember when Jeanne was supposed to drift eastward and eventually out to sea?

That's all I gotta say about that. The rest there is history. lol
hurricane, you've had a lot of double-posts lately. I'd assume your computer's being weird? (I know you're not doing that on purpose of course.)
Right now in my opinon its drifting SW.

So far no steering flow in that area. Our system is between 2 steering flows...
quakeman55 sorry about that...
It's ok hurricane like I said I'm sure it's not your fault
It just looks like it has all the right ingredients to come together then. Beryl, here we come!
TD 05E forms
IR loop...

it says 05E noname
Looking at the big picture (GOES-East WV loop), I see the trough pushing it south & a little east, the dry air behind it seems to be hampering now. Alot of other features are getting fired up while the convetion here is dying. Also to the south east a wave is organizing sucking a little moisture from the Carolina's blob as this wave is trying to wrap around. Looks to be aiding the slow drift south for the Carolina blob.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-54W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W.

new wave alert~

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 18N MOVING W AT
15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE
AXIS... FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-17W.

$$
FORMOSA

the wave east of the antilles has a chance and by the way if it weree to develop it would be a cape verde system lol
this is the strong wave that came of africa several days ago looks more impressie than the 20th bahama blob in the last month lol
To inject some humor, the following cartoon basically is the job of meteorolgist,media,etc

http://www.garfield.com/comics/comics_todays.html
tx what do you think about the wave headed for the northern antilles looks like it has outflow and the umteenth b/blob
looks pitiful now your take
Well see if it flares up tommorow.
txweather - That was a good one, thanks, I really did laugh out loud.
you could be right jp the area north of the antilles is forecast to be in the fla strts in several days and the shear
is supposed to be much weaker in 60 hrs and i know what shear is lol rooster tailed this is more symetrical even mayfields boys like its outflow
but im not turtle or stormtop i will say for sure i can be wrong lol
Brand new ball of convection starting to take place with our system here...looks like it is near or over the center. Wish they'd move one of the floaters already...
yea that would be good....
the global warming special on discovery, a scientist said we may have to create a catagory "6" hurricane, due to the increased intensity caused by global warming......

hurricane23...did you get the code work...hears a link to it.

it has alot of other codes.....
Damn I was watching the whole thing and I missed only the hurricane part!
Why is Floater 2 down on south Florida and the water. Has it been like this or have they switched because they are waiting for it?
Well it is possible Global warming increases Wind speeds pressure falls but Does not really do anything to the Number of storms
It's been like that for a while. Floater 1 is the really off-the-wall one. lol
When you look at the overall structure of the tropics, it seems like today was a blowup day...juicy off the coast, juicy in W. Carrib., and now Antills...It makes me laugh when people do more than observe, watch and report but scream and insult. Even the good Doc had amend his report just in 10 hours or so. It doesn't make upset, actually....It make me laugh a little. MS. Nature is a women....WE DON'T UNDERSTAND THEM! (sorry for the sexist remark in advance)
Can anyone give a good link on wind shear over the tropics and how to read it
Hey everyone,

I hope this post is received in the manner in which it is intended. Too often, so much gets lost in translation using the written word when there is no physical visualization to see ones facial expressions and body language for example. Moreover, ones tone of voice often times clarifies how our words are truly intended. Despite the obvious inhibiting factors, I want to make it clear that I have the very best interests at heart when I share my personal thoughts here.

First, I am aware of many people who would otherwise enjoy participating in "civilized" discussions in this forum yet are discouraged from doing so because the atmosphere in here that too often takes on one of unnecessary negativity manifested in a belittling of others. Please allow me to elaborate. I have seen examples here that I personally feel are inappropriate where I know that some bloggers have had the best intentions at heart and "respectfully" tries to correct a "misstatement" only to get blasted personally for doing so. On the other hand, the same is true where I have also seen instances where others unjustly come here and appear to enjoy belittling those who are here to learn, ask questions, and speculate on what they personally believe may transpire with a particular system.

In both cases, I would hope that genuine RESPECT for all other bloggers can be the foremost concern before any of us post comments that are critical of others with there never really being a legitimate excuse in my humble opinion for personal attacks that continues to plague this particular blog.
Although I can completely understand why many of us (including myself) have been frustrated by STORMTOPS demeanor in the PAST (meaning we should forget his past actions and give him the benefit of the doubt that he has changed and sincerely reach out to him and others with the same respect we want to receive), I believe it is totally unfair to keep mocking him when he isn't even on the blogs for this seems to be a regular occurrence around this community. It is human nature to respond in kind when we feel we are being attacked (not saying we are justified in doing so). Consequently, it seems reasonable that STORMTOP is not being encouraged by such completely unnecessary personal attacks to show others the same RESPECT that he is not being afforded here in reality.

In short, one is completely justified in taking issue with any and all posts that are belittling towards others when they occur, but I personally don't see the purpose of consistently mocking and belittling one for their past actions, much less making personal attacks on those (not just STORMTOP) who aren't even here posting at the time which occurs far too frequently in my personal opinion.

Please understand that this post is not directed at any particular person or persons but is simply my personal thoughts relative to hoping that ALL who have joined this community can feel most comfortable coming into this particular blog and being treated with the kind of RESPECT we all desire for ourselves. Thanks for taking the time to read this post and I hope each and everyone of you here has a truly blessed night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Yes I would like to have a wind sheer map too
newbee, go this link

go to the wind shear product and click the image.

you can choose between zoom, regular image and color.

the maps have a key, usually starting with low wind shear, increasing to high.

on the color map: blues and greens is low to marginal wind shear, while oranges and red is high wind shear.
Thank You Weather456. I came here because I am interested in weather and want to learn Sorry I can not give info, just get it from you experts
Omg the tropical outlook is taking away...mayb something important
"THE FIRST LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS...SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEFORE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR." Nothing about Lesser Antilles wave
oops I meant the tropical outlook is taking FOREVER!!! why did i say away lol
Wow that looks like a pretty hefty Blob in the western Carribean!
This link has the best wind shear map I know of.

Look for the "Wind Shear" link about half-way down.
Step one:


Step two:


step three:
Ok We got 5E now NHC has confrimed it
forecast to come a hurricane
Hey Newbee,

This is the wind shear map that I generally use that comes from the same exact link that Weather456 so thoughtfully provided.:)

If you click on this wind shear map, you will see alot of "yellow lines" drawn across the Atlantic Basin. Simply put, these lines connect points of "equal" wind shear values just as Isobars are lines that connect points of equal pressure on a surface map listed in millibars.

Therefore, you will see numbers associated with each "yellow" line shown. These are the specific wind speeds of the upper level wind shear in knots plotted on the latest satellite image. Based solely upon this map from 9 hours ago, we can see that the system off the SC Coast was then experiencing 10-20 knots of wind shear. This can easily be determined by identifying its precise location and then recognizing that it is located between the yellow line identifying "10" knots of shear and the one showing "20" knots of wind shear.

Generally speaking, wind shear values of 20 knots or greater are NOT favorable for tropical systems while 10-20 knots is considered "marginally favorable" and less than 10 knots of wind shear is considered favorable for further intensification.
sorry to be ignorant, but was lol mean?
Great job 456! You are so talented. You will have to teach me some of that oneday!!
weatherguy03....thanks
Hey Weather456,

That was an excellent explanation you visually provided and had it not taking me so long to post my comment, I would've seen my own was not necessarily needed.:) I gotta go but I hope you and everyone here has a truly blessed night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
LOL means Laugh Out Loud, which is what I'm doing right now at The Weather Channel. I noticed it was 10 before the hour and decided to check out the tropical update. The first thing I notice is TD5E with winds of 35mph and a pressure at 920mb!! Now that's a really low ambient pressure around the storm if the winds are 35mph, but the pressure is 920mb!
Hey Bob,

I was thinking the exact same thing about Weather456.:) I still can't even figure out how to post an image (lol). I hope you have a great night as well.:)
Posted By: refill at 10:47 PM AST on July 16, 2006.
sorry to be ignorant, but was lol mean?


It means laugh out loud...Good night all!!!
Chaser, I taught Get Real, I can teach you!..LOL I just need to know how to get those arrows and stuff in there and then get it on here. We will talk oneday 456!
HurricaneMyles, proabally a pressure from Hurricane Emily...last year
thanks weather 456 and good night to you too.
hi wg03 reading your tropical posts. any chance of carolina system moving further west towards me?
Hey Bob,

I just need to find the time and the especially the "patience" to learn and greatly appreciate your thoughtful offer once again.:) I saw where you and Alec helped GetReal and his blog looks fantastic! Naturally, yours has always looked great.:) Well, I bertter get going but wanted to thank you again and wish everyone here a great night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
nice lightning storm fire'n up off Naples SW....
Looks like our southern low is losing some steam by loop
Link

anyone have some stats of Pressure?
The quickscat seems to be having troubles
It seems atleast for now the majority of the circulation on the Carolina's blob is traveling up the trough, now east of VA. You can see the circulation exposed as the convection has been sheared to the east in both the visible satalite pic up in Dr. Master's entry & on floater 3 (Rainbow).
Looking at the Eastern US rainbow & check the NCEP fronts box, there is a 1012mb Low for the Carolina blob. On that defined, but sheared circulation N of there, there's a 1010mb Low.
Those blobs look like crap compared to the one in the Carribean!
I'm expecting this disturbance to be dead as a doorknob tomorrow morning. No I'm stating right out this disturbance will be dead by sunrise but in the morning period!!!!
which disturbance?
GLOBAL WARMING SHOW ON RIGHT NOW!

CHECK IT OUT!

Its 1015 Pacific Standard right now.

GIANTS IN 06
the blob off the Carolina coast. It's not showing up anymore on the computer models and our local weathermen here in NC and the weather channel aren't even bothering to mention it. So in short I'm officially writing it off and sayin good night to all in the blog cuz there's no developement coming from this blob.
Guys i just updated MY BLOG.....Added a few things stop by and leave me a comment.thanks adrian
Mike Naso has high hopes for the NC blob and says it has a good chance of TS or eventually hurricane development. He also points at moisture north of Panama that could move NW and eventually get towards the Bay of Campeche and develop. And lastly, the wave approaching the northern Leeward islands might have to be watched as it continues westward and gets out of the shear.
134. IKE
Good day cyberspace.....

Here's your 5:30 AM tropical weather update for the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico....an area of showers and thunderstorms...associated with a stationary
frontal system...continues off the coasts of south and North
Carolina and stretches northeastward into the Atlantic for several
hundred miles. Two areas of low pressure remain located along the
front. The first low...centered about 230 miles southeast of
Cape Cod Massachusetts...shows some signs of organization but is
moving northeastward over cooler waters so significant tropical
development of this system is not anticipated. The second
low...which is currently broad and ill-defined...is located about
150 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. This system
is expected to move little during the next day or so...and some
slow development is possible.
135. IKE
That system east of Long Island looks impressive this morning but it's headed to the Atlantic graveyard.

What is left behind could be interesting. One system off the Carolina's may move back in according to the NAM model as a 1012 mb low cruising up the east coast.

Further south...in the Bahamas...another wave/low may try and spin up and move across southern Florida in 84 hours. That according to the 06UTC NAM model run.
136. IKE
There is a spin to the clouds east of SC...maybe further south then that. Almost looks like it is east of Jacksonville where it's spinning.
OT:

anybody know what caused the doughnutt on the greer, sc radar? some kind of ??? small tstorm, temp inversion? just looked strange.....

as for the "broad area" off the sc coast..... we'll have to see if anyconvection refires this morning.....

had a big tsorm last night anout 12:30am near jacksonville (in atlantic), but not much left of that convection......

every body have a good week!

ug... monday!!!
139. IKE
That's an impressive wave NE of the islands...greater/lesser antilles moving west. It's suppose to get pulled NW then N by the east coast trough.
Thelmores: Had those a week ago in SC and GA. There's a smaller one this morning near the GA SC border. Checked the satellites, dry air aloft, no clouds.

I think they are gravity waves traveling through the temperature inversion. Winds are calm. Question is what kicked it off. Would starting up a power plant or something have that effect? Don't know what's located where these originate.
141. IKE
Somehow this trough/wave...wind up in the Bahamas...then a high builds back in. May be something...a wave or greater, making it into the gulf.
hey.... is that "frock" east of cape cod?

outlasted frick and frack! maybe! LOL

looks pretty impressive this morning, but cooler water awaits our friend! :)
the doughnut is caused by purple martins leaving there ness around sunrise. This happens around the lake areas. Thanks to WSI for this information.
ness = nests
145. WSI
"This happens around the lake areas"

That particular lake is Lake Murray, just west of Columbia.
146. WSI
Also, the smaller one near the GA/SC border is on the Savannah River. They nest there too.

I asked a met in the Greer office last week about the images, and he was the one that told me what they were.
Nifty wave coming off Africa
The low South of Nova Scotia sure looks like at least at TD this morning.

hey... you guys pullin my leg..... or what? :D

if not, where the heck all them birds goin..... early bird gets the worm? LOL
hey PP..... you can use "preview comment" to test your link, before you submit it.....

some weather products can't be directly linked.... in that case, you may have to "capture" the image and post the pic (or link! :p)....

i never get excited about waves until after a day or two off the african coast..... seen way too many "impressive" waves just fizzle out.....

but, in this case, the cape verdes time is upon us, so who knows! ;)
153. WSI
No, its the truth thelmores.

Don't take my word for it though. :)

Wiki article.


Lake Murray Purple Martin writeup.
O.T.

shuttle landing in 30 min...
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/
thanks WSI..... wild! :)

would it seem that perhaps the MJO has moved into the atlantic????
157. IKE
That wave at 21N, 58W is marching westward. Somehow this trough is suppose to turn it more NW...then N.

Things can change though.

158. IKE
I think the Atlantic is soon to be getting more active. August is getting close.
Live feed on the shuttle landing

The flight path had the spacecraft coming in from the south, swooping over the Pacific, Yucatan Peninsula, Gulf of Mexico and across Florida to cap a 5.3 million-mile journey that began on the Fourth of July.

I'll have to go out to see if I can see it, really cloudy though:(
they're watching a pop up at KSC
appears nasa is diverting to their to their secondary runway in florida, appears a small cell has popped up......

that darn weather! LOL
Hey guys. Will we be able to see the shuttle at all in St. Pete??
HEY SKYEPONY, YOU SEE ANYTHING????

they did redes. to alt runway..... small blip! LOL
I agree with ya about the East Atl thelmores! Interesting to see though.
maybe if the sun wasnt blocking your view, and you knew "exactly" where to look...... at what to look for.....

so your answer is maybe... not! :D

jk..... not sure......
Nash~ if ya got clear skies

I've seen it fly over on this landing path before. I don't know with these clouds.

runway 15 is on the north end so it should be clear of the pop up
looking at the close up of landing path, I don't think I'll be getting any pics of a fly over.
ft myers... look up NOW!!!!

lol
wow, wish i could traverse florida that fast.

loose switch??? rats!
The wave NE of the Lesser Antilles look interesting. Any chances to directly affect Puerto Rico??
171. cas23
could anyone tell me what length of time winds in a tropical system have to remaine to be sustained?
wow, really is cloudy in fla. this morning.......
sonic BOOM
wow, even had a heads up display from inside the orbiter....awesome!
BOOM IT WAS! LOL
hi all,

looks like the EAst Pacific is having all the fun. Storm after storm after storm.

(The East Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity occurring during July through September)

Well, the Atlantic season is only 1 month in. Peak is yet to come,maybe just maybe if things fall right(shear), we may just see a hurricane this year.
I hope everyone along the coast has their plywood precut and marked for whichever window it is for. Or have your alumnium sheeting ready, and have your tracks installed for it.

I live in Melbourne, FL and I use 1" plywood now (yes it's a little thick), but I had several large dents in the plywood I was previously using.

The water temps are just too warm at this point for some to make claims that this will be a very slow year. July's shear conditions and masses of African dust are high just like last year. Both of these conditions will relax as we move into the next few weeks.

Everyone said an event like 2004's hurricane season would probably never happen again in our lifetime. 2005 easily eclipsed 2004's hurricane season. Moral of the story, two coincidences so extreme (2004 and 2005 hurricane season) are indeed not consequences at all. By the time 2006 is over, I think alot of people will be re-thinking their choice of location near the coast.
CONGRATS NASA!!!

job well done! ;)
would anyone have shear maps link to what the levels were last year or previous years past?
Thank you, skyepony, for posting the nasa link. Congrats, Discovery!
Thanks for the link Pony :-)
dr. jeff has a new blog....
Beautiful landing:)

refill
8:05 discussion

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59/60W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 55W-59W. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N60W. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY
AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TO THESE ISLANDS.

$$
GR
"could anyone tell me what length of time winds in a tropical system have to remaine to be sustained?"

cas, i do not think there is a "set time", in or to gain td designation, there are several factors, not just wind speed.... although "wind" in general would indicate that alot of the other conditions may also be met...

to answer, its kind of a subjective thing....

hope that makes some sense! :)

I wanna say 6 hrs, don't have time to look it up.

BBL