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Developing Cyclone Arabian Sea / INVEST 94L Caribbean / Warm Weather Ahead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:09 PM GMT on October 25, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is taking the weekend off.)


UNUSUAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN ARABIAN SEA


A disturbance (INVEST IO90) in the Arabian Sea has been slowly developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the last few days, and appears very close to reaching Tropical Depression intensity. The developing storm is located about 600NM SE of the Oman coast, and remains quasi-stationary. Most models are showing intensification to a CAT 1 storm over the next 72 hours, and is forecast to move towards the OMAN coast by Tuesday. After which, the storm should turn northeast and accelerate away from the coast and weaken quickly to minimal tropical storm intensity (or depression) by next Thursday. It’s worth mentioning that latest imagery loops suggest very dry air is approaching from the Northwest – and this may prevent the storm from intensifying beyond Tropical Storm (gale) force – AND prevent the system from even approaching the Oman coast before it turns Northeast and weakens. Tropical Storms in this region of the world are unusual – but they are not rare ,

INVEST 94L UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYTIME SOON

The remnants of TD #9 that moved into the western CARIB earlier this week, continues to drift E/SE as a frontal system from the Bahamas to the southern Yucatan with much drier air behind it keeps shunting this system further towards the SW CARIB Sea. With high wind shear near the frontal boundary and drier air still advancing into the NW CARIB – this system is unlikely to develop anytime soon. Should the system manage to survive beyond 5 days (doubtful!) conditions could become more favorable for development in the SW CARIB at the end of next week.


NATIONWIDE WARMTH BUT STORMY WEATHER NEXT WEEK

A nice warm-up is sweeping eastward from the central US towards the east as high pressure and dryer conditions develop over the eastern US during the next couple days. A strong upper level TROF moving across the northern Rockies will deepen and dig southeastward towards the Mid Atlantic states by late this week, with cooler air moving south into the Midwest and eventually the eastern US. The development of another coastal storm in the east is also possible along the frontal boundary late in the week as well. The overall hemispheric pattern continues to feature strong TROFS moving from the eastern Pacific across the nation every 5-7 days, with warm temps ahead of, and cooler conditions behind, each storm/frontal system. This highly progressive
Pattern is likely to keep average Temperatures on the warm side of normal through mid November.




Fig 1: This true color image of the Arabian Sea region from overnight (US time) shows a large – but slowly developing system about 600 NM off the Oman coast. This unusual (but not ‘rare’) development was ‘helped along’ by a strong MJO signal that persists over Africa and the Indian Ocean which tends to enhance convective based precipitation in the tropics..



Fig 2: The color enhanced IR image from this morning shows some heavier, but not intense, convection near the low-level circulation center (LLCC). The system does, however, exhibit significant rotation and banding features.




Fig 3: The surface analysis from 11:30Z using ship, land based and satellite derived winds (including data from the last 2 ASCAT passes) shows a large and slowly deepening area of Low pressure, with MAX winds in the 25Kt-30Kt range – right on the cusp of being designated as a Tropical Cyclone.




Fig 4: The High Level wind pattern shows a very large and well developed outflow pattern above the cyclone, with anti-cyclonic flow providing a venting mechanism for the developing surface cyclone. That said – there are no strong outflow channels – so development will continue to be slow.




Fig 5: The Intensity forecasts from the specialized cyclone models that are a ‘sub-set’ of the global models are in very good agreement that this system will reach hurricane intensity in a few days. But this is far from certain based on both Climatology and real-time imagery that shows drier air moving towards the system - but such good agreement amongst all the models does suggest intensification is likely.




Fig 6: The VIS image INVEST 94L in the western Caribbean. The system has been shifting towards the E/SE over the past day as cooler and drier air from the NW pushes into the NW CARIB.



Fig 7: The surface analysis from this morning shows a broad area of Low pressure (INVEST 94L) with a small, non-tropical Low pressure system over the Bahamas which brought very heavy rains to the Florida Keys and extreme SE Florida yesterday. Note the strong northerly flow over the Bay of Campeche that reaches into the eastern Pacific and could lead to the dissipation of INVEST 94L if this drier, more stable air continues advancing into the southwest CARIB.




Fig 8: The upper level wind analysis shows ‘one of the best’ anti-cyclonic circulation systems of the entire season over the western CARIB! If this was AUG – we almost certainly would be looking at a significant hurricane formation. But the reality of the season is evident just to the north - with a large TROF digging into the deep tropics with high wind shear (not shown) reaching into the NW Caribbean. IF the dry air/high wind shear intrusion ends soon enough, and the deep moisture field and vorticity associated with INVEST 94L survives, we might see some kind of development late next week in the SW CARIB – though the chances of that happening remain quite low.


CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 9: The above set of 200 mb (~40,000’) charts highlighting the jet stream - shows the current pattern over North America (Left Panel) and the forecast wind pattern late TUE (center panel) and then next Friday (right panel). Note the VERY Strong wind Max over the northern Rockies (180mph speeds!). This is associated with a strong short wave TROF that will dig southeastward this week, leading to a deeper TROF over the eastern US at the end of next week. The warm weather that will prevail well into the middle of next week will ease back to near normal reading late next week as the TROF and a possible surface storm system impacts the eastern third of the nation. By that time – the next big TROF over the eastern Pacific will be approaching the west coast.



Fig 10: The Temperature forecasts based on the GFS MOS model data calls for well above normal readings across the nation during the next 7-Days – but is a bit misleading in that very warm anomalies early in the week will be offset by near or even slightly below normal Temps at the end of the 7-day period over the eastern half of the nation..




Fig 11: The Week 2 Temperature anomaly outlook continues to be on the warm side of normal for most of the nation – though Temps closer to or a bit below normal on average will prevail in the northeastern quarter of the nation.


✭ MY next Weather Update will be issued THURSDAY under my own BLOG unless conditions warrant an earlier update. ✭

Jeff will have a new post on Monday, unless 94L shows show unexpected development.

Steve

Hurricane Winter Weather arabian sea tropical cyclone

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Well, getting away from the bickering and personal attacks, at least the sunspot mentioned over the last few days is starting to move away from the Earth. It's impressive that it never really managed to produce a CME, but I suppose when it comes to sunspots, "size matters not." The sunspot that caused the massive July 2012 event wasn't nearly as big as this and produced a huge flare/CME. This never produced anything beyond X3.1. Let's hope when it comes back around it's a smaller and less active region of the Sun.

Quoting 490. CycloneOz:



When you say you do not have time or patience with "such individuals," ...do you mean you are intolerant?


Oh I tolerate them, that's why I move on and don"t engage, I personally don't see you as a bad person, but then I guess we live in 2 different worlds that's why we are so far apart, peace my friend , stick with your beliefs and I'll stick with mine.
Quoting Naga5000:


(No offense, but I edited out all the malarchy.)


What the difference is between the 2014 versions of climate "methodology and modeling?"


Their budgets as given to them by GOVERNMENTS.

Otherwise, they are both expensive attempts at "GUESSING."

Quoting 500. CycloneOz:



I must confess, I did not attend public school, so my knowledge of American History may be unaltered...

...so are you suggesting "revisionist history" has occurred regarding the National Weather Service?

Because that outfit did not come around until 1870...when there were only 37 States.

Unfortunately...the USA never made it to 57 States, like Obama said there was, but maybe he's from the future.

So...please explain these three data points (from an earlier post):

Since 1760 .41 C
Since 1810 .56C
Since 1860 .64C





Here's the data table Link

Are you going to bother to read their methodology or are you just going to continue to complain and ignore the answer right at the tips of your fingers...just a few clicks away?
Quoting stormpetrol:


Oh I tolerate them, that's why I move on and don"t engage, I personally don't see you as a bad person, but then I guess we live in 2 different worlds that's why we are so far apart, peace my friend , stick with your beliefs and I'll stick with mine.


I love all people...even the ones that have actually hurt me.

But I also love to argue! They wanted me to be an attorney, because I will not stop.
Quoting 503. CycloneOz:



What the difference is between the 2014 versions of climate "methodology and modeling?"


Their budgets as given to them by GOVERNMENTS.

Otherwise, they are both expensive attempts at "GUESSING."




Funding by the government does not equal fraud...you have created an argument based on a logical fallacy. Therein lies your entire problem.

Your anti-government hysteria has made you unable to be rational.
Quoting Naga5000:


Funding by the government does not equal fraud...you have created an argument based on a logical fallacy. Therein lies your entire problem.

Your anti-government hysteria has made you unable to be rational.


Okay...maybe you're right about me...maybe you're wrong...but please.

Address the word "GUESSING" if you will.
I can guess that the sun won't rise
I can guess what's behind your eyes

I can guess, I can guess, I can guess.
Quoting 500. CycloneOz:



Unfortunately...the USA never made it to 57 States, like Obama said there was, but maybe he's from the future.





And there you go. Can't win an argument on the merits so you're forced to throw out a straw man. Just wondering, you're not able to vote in US elections, are you?

Quoting 475. CycloneOz:



Really? Seriously?

I've been away for years now, so sure...it's possible the US government has thrown some of the free money their printing towards this lab to help them in their over-regulatory quests.
Oz, you might think about the fact that, as an acknowledged former patriot "de-expatrioting myself" who has been living for years in a country looked at askance by the U. S. State Department, a part of the government you have disparaged in a public forum available to read by all including those government departments which will have to approve your re-entry into the country, that you may be placing your return in jeopardy by so publicly stating your dislike for the government of the country you wish to enter, at a time when almost any negative behavior is grounds for serious inquiry. Just sayin'.
Looks like 94L consolidating at original center position but slightly farther West near 82
Quoting 507. CycloneOz:



Okay...maybe you're right about me...maybe you're wrong...but please.

Address the word "GUESSING" if you will.


It doesn't deserve to be addressed. You think it's guessing, and by that alone you ignore what methodology is and the scientific method is and what science is about.

The methodology allows for A) other scientists to replicate the work B) Justification for data recoding C) review by other scientists to ensure the methods are within the accepted scientific discourse in terms of data processing D) It allows for critiques and different approaches for analyzing data (on this note, have you ever wondered why different methodologies come up with similar temperature reconstructions?)

All raw data needs to be transformed in any discipline. No one anywhere used raw data...it is unreliable. You think this is evidence of fraud when it is only evidence of proper scientific inquiry.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Oz, you might think about the fact that, as an acknowledged former patriot "de-expatrioting myself" who has been living for years in a country looked at askance by the U. S. State Department, a part of the government you have disparaged in a public forum available to read by all including those government departments which will have to approve your re-entry into the country, that you may be placing your return in jeopardy by so publicly stating your dislike for the government of the country you wish to enter, at a time when almost any negative behavior is grounds for serious inquiry. Just sayin'.


Meh...the only disparaging remarks I have made about the government is that they are funding scientists to perpetrate a hoax.

I can live with that...and if they take my passport and throw it in the crapper, ...all I can say is they better fly me wherever I want to go.

Free speech is not free. There's a price, but my speech has been acknowledged by many many others.

I'm not the only one with a problem regarding the 2014 version of "climate science."
The blog has been hijacked... Hopefully an admin will correct this and a more meaningful conversation can continue.
515. beell


Yes, this system has all the signs of imminent rapid intensification.
Quoting 488. islander101010:

94..due.west
Seems almost stationary to me.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I love all people...even the ones that have actually hurt me.

But I also love to argue! They wanted me to be an attorney, because I will not stop.

Arguing for the sake of argument is pretty futile.

But that's just me, realy.
Quoting Naga5000:


All raw data needs to be transformed in any discipline. No one anywhere used raw data...it is unreliable. You think this is evidence of fraud when it is only evidence of proper scientific inquiry.


I agree with this.

But a mountain of conflicting observations is being created...even as we chat.

The dire predictions of 2006 have not come to pass...and there are those that have committed scientific fraud regarding climate science.

I like my science, methodology, and other cool mental gymnastics without fraud.
See you take issue with the Miami regional data I gave you, let's try only the accepted Miami Intl station, over it's entire lifetime including station moves. The Miami Intl station gives us data starting in 1894: Link



Trend in C per century: 1.22C edit (0.77 C after breakpoint alignment) Link
Quoting pottery:

Arguing for the sake of argument is pretty futile.

But that's just me, realy.


I am not arguing for the sake of arguing.

I have had very intelligent scientists talk in live group discussions where I was present that today's climate science is seriously flawed and that the conclusions being drawn are in serious error.

I communicate well enough that my dissenting voice, at times a bit over the top, is nonetheless, legitimate.
Quoting 518. CycloneOz:



I agree with this.

But a mountain of conflicting observations is being created...even as we chat.

The dire predictions of 2006 have not come to pass...and there are those that have committed scientific fraud regarding climate science.

I like my science, methodology, and other cool mental gymnastics without fraud.


What predictions in 2006? Made by whom? By the way, Al gore is not a climate scientist and does not count in a discussion on climate science. He is not relevant to a discussion on science.
Quoting 517. pottery:


Arguing for the sake of argument is pretty futile.

But that's just me, realy.


Unless your on the Monty Python show lol Link

Quoting PWBart31:
The blog has been hijacked... Hopefully an admin will correct this and a more meaningful conversation can continue.


The discussions I have had (save for the poker victory I enjoyed today) are all topical to this blog.
Quoting 516. stormwatcherCI:

Seems almost stationary to me.


Hard to tell with a slow mover. My best guess is a slow 3 mph to the WNW at the most. Could also be cloud tops moving around.
Quoting Naga5000:


What predictions in 2006? Made by whom? By the way, Al gore is not a climate scientist and does not count in a discussion on climate science. He is not relevant to a discussion on science.


I disagree that AlGore is not relevant to this discussion.

He has certainly been discussed in our classrooms...and that makes him, his supporters, his "science," his earnings, his agenda, his films, his carbon-footprint, and his political motivations extremely relevant to this moment in time when climate science is viewed with a jaundiced eye.
I have the LLC a of 94L near 15.9N/16.0N 81.5W stationary at this time
I say LLC is not exactly underneath the convective blob but rather NE side of it
527. bwi
Quoting 505. CycloneOz:



I love all people...even the ones that have actually hurt me.

But I also love to argue! They wanted me to be an attorney, because I will not stop.


Dr. Masters tolerates lots of anti-science rhetoric on his blog, some of it sincere, some of it just trying to stir people up, some of it political. But at this point, your inability to stop is just dick-ish.
I have the center of 94L at 15.4N/82W based on sat obs!
Quoting 520. CycloneOz:



I am not arguing for the sake of arguing.

I have had very intelligent scientists talk in live group discussions where I was present that today's climate science is seriously flawed and that the conclusions being drawn are in serious error.

I communicate well enough that my dissenting voice, at times a bit over the top, is nonetheless, legitimate.

Yeah.
There was a time when I used to think that the only ''intelligent scientists'' around were the ones that agreed with my point of view.
But not any more.
I got wise with age, as they say, and started to make my own assessments, taking into account ALL available info. that I could lay my hands on.

I even changed my outlook on several things over the years.
Thank goodness for that, too.
Strange, that....
Quoting 529. stormpetrol:

I have the center of 94L at 15.4N/82W based on sat obs!

82 looks good to me but maybe a tad farther N. :-)
This is a sight you don't see often.

LOL so march for it going up


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



it went down
Gro,

Please keep it on topic.

Quoting 528. Grothar:


Good evening all! How has the weekend been?

Frontal boundary is moving across Jamaica, the sky is blanketed by upper level clouds. Very little in the way of precipitation. But it seems as if dry air subsidence will invade the area; upon the exit of the trough and the associated cold front.
10/10

Somebody gonna be real disappointed.
New TWO % drop down 10/10 because NHC think it will move WSW-SW and go on land

I think if it does otherwise then % will go up quite a bit

I think it will not move WSW-SW

Rather be stationary or meander very slowly
Eventually moving WNW
Quoting CaribBoy:
10/10

Somebody gonna be real disappointed.


Caribboy I know your deeply disappointed that NHC did not mentioned the wave E of the Islands
Surprising to me. They are the experts, but it currently looks about the best it ever has. Well, I'm going to keep an eye on it nonetheless.


Quoting 534. Tazmanian:

LOL so march for it going up


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



it went down
Quoting 534. Tazmanian:

LOL so march for it going up


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



it went down

Personally I think no ones for sure, Right now I'll take this with a grain of salt!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Personally I think no ones for sure, Right now I'll take this with a grain of salt!


I think because currency steering flow on the system is very weak it uncertain
Cardinals 24, Eagles 20...
Sup, Nigel

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:40 PM PDT on October 26, 2014
Scattered Clouds
74.7 °F / 23.7 °C
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 78 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 49%
Dew Point: 54 °F / 12 °C
Wind: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h / 4.0 m/s from the WNW
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph / 20.9 km/h
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
76.1 here for the high, 84.1 yesterday.
forecast is for 90's Wed-Thurs, Nice Weather.
Quoting 535. HaoleboySurfEC:

Gro,

Please keep it on topic.




Sorry. :)
img src="">
Quoting 533. stormpetrol:




After reviewing the sat loop I'd say 15.9N/81.8W
Quoting misanthrope:


And there you go. Can't win an argument on the merits so you're forced to throw out a straw man. Just wondering, you're not able to vote in US elections, are you?



That was meant to be funny. :\
Quoting 545. GeoffreyWPB:

img src="">


Geoff, lay off the Coors light. You're a little early :)
Quoting PedleyCA:
Cardinals 24, Eagles 20...
Sup, Nigel

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:40 PM PDT on October 26, 2014
Scattered Clouds
74.7 °F / 23.7 °C
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 78 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 49%
Dew Point: 54 °F / 12 °C
Wind: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h / 4.0 m/s from the WNW
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph / 20.9 km/h
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
76.1 here for the high, 84.1 yesterday.
forecast is for 90's Wed-Thurs, Nice Weather.


I can see that. The weather has been variable here, October is our wettest month. It has been wet in western Jamaica, but there is a marked falloff in precipitation in the eastern end. November is the wettest month for the Blue mountains; the primary source of water in the Kingston metro area. Let's see what pans out, as the dry season is not to far away.

Anyways, how have you been?
Quoting 548. Grothar:



Geoff, lay off the Coors light. You're a little early :)


That means no Rudolph? :(
I wonder how the weather was today between Pittsburgh (51) and the Colts (34)?

Quoting stormpetrol:


After reviewing the sat loop I'd say 15.9N/81.8W


Which basically agrees with my position
From Skyepony's blog, apparently Gonzalo (extratropical) is still intact as an entity going thru Bulgaria and Turkey causing some havoc. Any stats on the farthest any tropical system has gone on as an intact entity after going extratropical? Just curious.
Nilofar up to 60kts

04A NILOFAR 141027 0000 14.9N 62.8E IO 60 978





Looks like Nilofar is closing off its eye wall and should become a hurricane tomorrow. Once it does that, it could see some moderate intensification with low shear of 5-10kts, excellent outflow and SSTs of 29-30C.

P.S: The GFS/Euro are much more aggressive than the JTWC and have it tracking further west. The Euro brings it down to 962 mb, the GFS to 951 mb. The real shocker is the CMC. The CMC's track is pretty much the exact same as the JTWC's and brings it to a 977 mb system. It'll be interesting to see how this verifies, as this could be a major victory for the CMC in terms of track.
Quoting rod2635:
From Skyepony's blog, apparently Gonzalo (extratropical) is still intact as an entity going thru Bulgaria and Turkey causing some havoc. Any stats on the farthest any tropical system has gone on as an intact entity after going extratropical? Just curious.


Gonzalo (and its remnants) are an Atlantic weather highlight.

Do you think the name will be retired? It did become a major!
Quoting 550. GeoffreyWPB:



That means no Rudolph? :(


Well, OK. If it makes you happy.
558. beell
And this is AOA 15N. That was/is a front!

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I think because currency steering flow on the system is very weak it uncertain


I think the NHC has a good handle on the steering flow. Hence the 10/10.
Quoting 549. nigel20:



I can see that. The weather has been variable here, October is our wettest month. It has been wet in western Jamaica, but there is a marked falloff in precipitation in the eastern end. November is the wettest month for the Blue mountains; the primary source of water in the Kingston metro area. Let's see what pans out, as the dry season is not to far away.

Anyways, how have you been?


Been Dry here too. 1.57in / 39.9mm this year, very little since May
getting Fall conditions now but it is up and down 60F at night and 80F in the day
but starting to go lower lately.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, getting away from the bickering and personal attacks, at least the sunspot mentioned over the last few days is starting to move away from the Earth. It's impressive that it never really managed to produce a CME, but I suppose when it comes to sunspots, "size matters not." The sunspot that caused the massive July 2012 event wasn't nearly as big as this and produced a huge flare/CME. bThis never produced anything beyond X3.1. Let's hope when it comes back around it's a smaller and less active region of the Sun.

Well, whatever we understand about terrestrial weather, it seems like we understand maybe 10% of that with solar weather. Our ability to predict sunspots and large CME's more than a day in advance is nill. I'll have dig up a link to a paper that was written in about 1960. I don't even remember his name now, but he was a famous astrophysicist, astronomer, and and avid amateur radio operator. He wrote the paper just at the start of electronic vacuum tubes being replaced with solid state circuits. His position was that another Carrington event could start with very little notice while others, like the current sunspot, look dangerous but nothing really happens except some nuisance disruption. It was impossible to tell more than about 12 hours in advance if a CME was the "Big One" or just another scary looking sunspot. He was quite fearful of the switch to sold state from vacuum tubes, since solid state devices, unless they are extremely well shielded, fail rapidly in the face of a large solar electromagnetic pulse. He wanted the government to run all strategic electronic devises using only tube equipment so it wouldn't be affected by a large EMP.

Dang, this is going to drive me nuts until I can find his name again. He was considered something of a crank at the time, since the government was confident that shielded solid state devices would survive just fine. The widespread use of solid state devices for things like running your car and powering all our computers and mobile devices. Just like the climate change issues, the governments have been dragging their feet on this when there's a 100% chance the Carrington event will will reoccur. We just don't know when, but we'll find out one day when, with a few hours of each other, almost every solid state device on earth fails. It won't be pretty...
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL so march for it going up


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



it went down

Hey tazzy taz. I am taking this one like this: It's a FAAAKE!!!!
Quoting nigel20:


I can see that. The weather has been variable here, October is our wettest month. It has been wet in western Jamaica, but there is a marked falloff in precipitation in the eastern end. November is the wettest month for the Blue mountains; the primary source of water in the Kingston metro area. Let's see what pans out, as the dry season is not to far away.

Anyways, how have you been?

hey nigel.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Been Dry here too. 1.57in / 39.9mm this year, very little since May
getting Fall conditions now but it is up and down 60F at night and 80F in the day
but starting to go lower lately.
This is the time of year we can pick up some pretty substantial rains - if we have some tropical cyclones to give us some. Out average is about 3.5 inches. We've had 1.21 inches, the vast majority of which came in one hour from one thunderstorm. All the clear dry air has sure given us some impressive diurnal temperature ranges though. The high today was 91 and low was 51. This is the kind of temperature range you see in the desert, not Alabama. I've just given up on the chances for rain until the parade of giant ice and snowstorms cranks up in November. :-)
why, this is the most boring thing to happen in the history of the blog.
Thunder Powers-ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

94L looking good!
Quoting Grothar:
I wonder how the weather was today between Pittsburgh (51) and the Colts (34)?

Probably similar to Tuscaloosa (34) and Knoxville (20). The Tennessee locker room was quite chilly from all reports. :-)
.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Unless your on the Monty Python show lol Link

That was a great sketch...or maybe it wasn't. :-)
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Well, whatever we understand about terrestrial weather, it seems like we understand maybe 10% of that with solar weather. Our ability to predict sunspots and large CME's more than a day in advance is nill. I'll have dig up a link to a paper that was written in about 1960. I don't even remember his name now, but he was a famous astrophysicist, astronomer, and and avid amateur radio operator. He wrote the paper just at the start of electronic vacuum tubes being replaced with solid state circuits. His position was that another Carrington event could start with very little notice while others, like the current sunspot, look dangerous but nothing really happens except some nuisance disruption. It was impossible to tell more than about 12 hours in advance if a CME was the "Big One" or just another scary looking sunspot. He was quite fearful of the switch to sold state from vacuum tubes, since solid state devices, unless they are extremely well shielded, fail rapidly in the face of a large solar electromagnetic pulse. He wanted the government to run all strategic electronic devises using only tube equipment so it wouldn't be affected by a large EMP.

Dang, this is going to drive me nuts until I can find his name again. He was considered something of a crank at the time, since the government was confident that shielded solid state devices would survive just fine. The widespread use of solid state devices for things like running your car and powering all our computers and mobile devices. Just like the climate change issues, the governments have been dragging their feet on this when there's a 100% chance the Carrington event will will reoccur. We just don't know when, but we'll find out one day when, with a few hours of each other, almost every solid state device on earth fails. It won't be pretty...
One of the things I remember from that period was that as the US armed services were converting from tube to solid state stuff, especially in combat aircraft, there was a concern that an EMP from a nuclear weapon could fry the hardware in the newer aircraft, while the Soviets, not having the advancing technology, were still dependent on tube systems and thus more or less immune from EMP.

What a ugly face!
Quoting stormpetrol:

What a ugly face!
Lol. :)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Surprising to me. They are the experts, but it currently looks about the best it ever has. Well, I'm going to keep an eye on it nonetheless.


It makes sense if you think it through. Instead of being the hurricane that flattened Tampa, it turned out to be a weak low that has been manhandled by the cold front. The only real chance it has for any tropical development is between now and tomorrow, when it makes landfall in Honduras. The 5 day percentage is the same as the two day because the thinking is it will be inland in two days, with no chance of tropical development. Conditions aren't favorable for short term development, but they haven't been favorable since 94L was declared. When the models thought 94L was going to get out in the Caribbean, that chances for development we slightly stronger, hence the 20%. Look at the tiny yellow area for development on the five day and I think it becomes a little more clear.
Quoting stormpetrol:

What a ugly face!
Perfect for Halloween! :-)
Quoting sar2401:
This is the time of year we can pick up some pretty substantial rains - if we have some tropical cyclones to give us some. Out average is about 3.5 inches. We've had 1.21 inches, the vast majority of which came in one hour from one thunderstorm. All the clear dry air has sure given us some impressive diurnal temperature ranges though. The high today was 91 and low was 51. This is the kind of temperature range you see in the desert, not Alabama. I've just given up on the chances for rain until the parade of giant ice and snowstorms cranks up in November. :-)


Hi Sar!

Yes, there is generally enough moisture to trap outgoing low frequency longwave radiation, and hence limiting significant temperature changes in the lower troposphere. But I see the opposite of what's expected is occurring on your neck of the woods.

As you already know, most of the heat energy is absorbed during evaporation or released during condensation, so daytime temps seldom exceeds 95F here in the Caribbean. Plus, we don't really have seasonal climate variations only a dry and wet season.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
One of the things I remember from that period was that as the US armed services were converting from tube to solid state stuff, especially in combat aircraft, there was a concern that an EMP from a nuclear weapon could fry the hardware in the newer aircraft, while the Soviets, not having the advancing technology, were still dependent on tube systems and thus more or less immune from EMP.
That's quite true. The military put a lot of money into ways to shield for EMP from nuclear bombs as they switched over to solid state. With the end of the cold war and budget constraints, some of that work has fallen by the wayside, since the chances of a widespread nuclear war is deemed low now. EMP shielding in consumer grade hardware basically doesn't exist, so the next Carrington event will find us sitting front of blank GPS devices in a car that won't start and an entertainment system that sits there and doesn't entertain us. Our smartphones won't work, ATM's won't work, a lot of vital medical equipment wont't work. No TV's, no internet, no credit cards, no electronic banking...the list goes on and on. Now we can add in a lot of military and power company equipment that also won't work. It's going to be the Black Swan event of modern times.
00z Best Track for 94L. Moving slowly WSW.

At 0000 UTC, 27 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.3°N and 82.3°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 245 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 26 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 16.5N 86.0W AT 28/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM
Quoting nigel20:


Hi Sar!

Yes, there is generally enough moisture to trap outgoing low frequency longwave radiation, and hence limiting significant temperature changes in the lower troposphere. But I see the opposite of what's expected is occurring on your neck of the woods.

As you already know, most of the heat energy is absorbed during evaporation or released during condensation, so daytime temps seldom exceeds 95F here in the Caribbean. Plus, we don't really have seasonal climate variations only a dry and wet season.
Strange thing is that we've had dense radiation fog the last several nights. The minimum humidity reading today was 28% but the maximum was 99% during the early morning fogs. I guess there's enough vegetation here with enough moisture to get condensed out in the cool of the evening to start to saturate the atmosphere and produce fog. This kind of radiation fog and fog and low clouds when we get a Georgia Wedge set up in the winter are about the only two times we see widespread fog here.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 94L. Moving slowly WSW.

At 0000 UTC, 27 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.3°N and 82.3°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 245 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.


Hi Luis! So it would end up inland, over central America within a day or two?
Quoting 580. nigel20:



Hi Luis! So it would end up inland, over central America within a day or two?


Hi nigel! If nothing changes yes. What I am watching is the wave east of the Lesser Antilles that may bring some wet weather to the Eastern Caribbean islands.
Quoting sar2401:
Strange thing is that we've had dense radiation fog the last several nights. The minimum humidity reading today was 28% but the maximum was 99% during the early morning fogs. I guess there's enough vegetation here with enough moisture to get condensed out in the cool of the evening to start to saturate the atmosphere and produce fog. This kind of radiation fog and fog and low clouds when we get a Georgia Wedge set up in the winter are about the only two times we see widespread fog here.


Your explanation seems likely.

On another matter, how is the present water situation in Alabama?
Quoting stormpetrol:

94L looking good!

Yeah

I still say the LLC is actually on the NE side of that convective blob also do you notice that band that's developing on the E side along 80W/79W

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel! If nothing changes yes. What I am watching is the wave east of the Lesser Antilles that may bring some wet weather to the Eastern Caribbean islands.


Yes, hopefully! I think the the area is being enhanced by the divergent side of the upper trough. The convergent side is across the NE Caribbean, I don't know if this will be same when the wave is in the aforementioned area. Maybe moisture will invade the area, as a result of the cold front? But let's hope that there will be enough rain to reduce rainfall deficits that still exists. Plus, the long dry season will commence within a moth or so.
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah

I still say the LLC is actually on the NE side of that convective blob also do you notice that band that's developing on the E side along 80W/79W




Heading inland.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yeah

I still say the LLC is actually on the NE side of that convective blob also do you notice that band that's developing on the E side along 80W/79W



I'd say about 15.8N 82.1W somwhere near there which btw makes sense microwave pass not too long ago showed it there generally

Movement I would have to say either very slow meander or stationary

I'll wait till later to see what kinda definitive move its making

Are people still on fantasizing about a super hurricane raveging the Caymans?.Well its def not going to happen with 94L.Laters....
Quoting 464. stormpetrol:



I don't know about local shrimping here, I doubt there is any, if it is it's done on the black market! We have strict conservations laws here regarding welks, conchs and lobsters ! BTW I've been medically retired from my job for the past 11 years, so I have to stop and reflect on my age and how lucky I am, the only ones I know that practice for death is those that have no reason in their minds for living and trust me I could be gone tomorrow, but I've got the mileage compared to the age so it's alright, in the meantime I have a lot to live for, but I don't control fate and destiny!
I feel for you. I have developed bad heath problems, but that only made me work harder. It actually worked! Sure, I am dying and have been since birth, but I really thought I would be dead by now. One modern term that really bothers me is " it is what it is". The correct, and old fashioned version is, "it is what you make of it".
Quoting 587. washingtonian115:

Are people still on fantasizing about a super hurricane raveging the Caymans?.Well its def not going to happen with 94L.Laters....

personally I have better things to fantasize about! :))), but as you know with fantasy nothing is for sure! Love ya!
Quoting stormpetrol:

personally I have better things to fantasize about! :))), but as you know with fantasy nothing is for sure! Love ya!

I wonder if wash knows that it's only wash that is fantasizing about hurricane hitting cayman because no one else is talking about it but wash
Quoting 588. Pallis1:

I feel for you. I have developed bad heath problems, but that only made me work harder. It actually worked! Sure, I am dying and have been since birth, but I really thought I would be dead by now. One modern term that really bothers me is " it is what it is". The correct, and old fashioned version is, "it is what you make of it".

Thumbs up brother! I actually worked in the Health Services for 18 + years, so I know alot about health and medicine in general , I have nothing life threatening and I'm not disabled in anyway, I have ankylosing spondylitis, I might have to have a hip replacement, but for now that's on hold ! Good thing I'm covered with health insurance for life, both my wife and I and I receive a decent pension for life!
Quoting nigel20:


Your explanation seems likely.

On another matter, how is the present water situation in Alabama?
Even with our very dry year, except for my lawn, water is not a problem. Alabama was far ahead of other eastern states in the 20's and 30's, building many hydro plants with their attendant reservoirs. This helped us with water for agricultural irrigation, flood control, and steady sources of water from domestic consumption. The 14 hydro plants versus only 6 fossil fuel plants helps make Alabama electricity some of the least expensive in the country.

Environmentalism was never a strong issue here until about the last 25 years, so the Corps of Engineers was able to build a big dam and reservoir, 85 miles long and with a 465 mile shoreline, right on the border of Alabama and Georgia. It was finished in 1965, a time when these kinds of large dam/reservoir projects were stopped from being built in other parts of the country. As a result, we have beautiful Lake Eufaula/Walter F. George (two different names depending on which side of the state line you're on) that's useful for commercial barge traffic, recreation, including fishing and hunting, as well as boating. It was the last link in the chain of dams and reservoirs that allows you to hop in your sailboat just south of Atlanta and sail all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. On top of all this, our karst geology means we have lots of artesian wells too.

So, bottom line, except for the stuff that won't fall from the sky onto my lawn, we have no water problems. :-)

Quoting 586. wunderkidcayman:



I'd say about 15.8N 82.1W somwhere near there which btw makes sense microwave pass not too long ago showed it there generally

Movement I would have to say either very slow meander or stationary

I'll wait till later to see what kinda definitive move its making




Personally , I think this is TD, but who I'm I to second guess! just my take !
Good evening

It's 80, feeling like 85, partly cloudy evening here on the island tonight.

So I know it's a little bit of a slow evening tonight so I thought I'd share this YouTube video with you about these islands. Part of the song is being used for a television commercial but this is in its entirety. It really does do the islands justice.



Everything else is okay over here. Still suffering the after affects of Chikungunya, and I'm STILL on crutches from my accident two weeks ago. I'm REALLY looking forward to not hurting/aching/complaining and/or limping sooner rather than later!!

Hope all is well with everyone else!

Lindy

Quoting stormpetrol:


Personally , I think this is TD, but who I'm I to second guess! just my take !


I agree infact go on the navy site and click 94L and look at the most recent microwave pass and tell me what you think
a href="" target="_blank">Link

Trying the link again. Sorry!
A couple of things to note about 94L, The area of ocean it is currently over is pretty shallow so water temps should remain warm and constant as it can't stir up cool deep water as it moves slowly around in the area. The area of land 94L is closest to is very very flat and swampy. So until 94L moves a good ways inland it may not be affected by land too much. Those are the things going for it. What is against it in a big way is the amount of dry air north and south of the system getting injected into it. This I think is what the NHC is seeing also and is keeping their odds of development so low.....I agree with them. Until the conditions surrounding it change we wont see much out of this one. Just my take and I have been wrong before lol
Quoting 596. VirginIslandsVisitor:

a href="" target="_blank">Link

Trying the link again. Sorry!


Always look at the Preview Comment before posting images.
Forecaster Kimberlain could not have been more bearish on 94L at 8:00pm. Because of its proximity to land, they may issue a special advisory/TWO.
Quoting 595. wunderkidcayman:



I agree infact go on the navy site and click 94L and look at the most recent microwave pass and tell me what you think

I got a recruitment site involving cookies in bunk beds in close quarters.
Maybe you can provide the navy link showing this going/meandering NE?
00z surface map shows the WSW direction forecast by TAFB and NHC.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Thumbs up brother! I actually worked in the Health Services for 18 + years, so I know alot about health and medicine in general , I have nothing life threatening and I'm not disabled in anyway, I have ankylosing spondylitis, I might have to have a hip replacement, but for now that's on hold ! Good thing I'm covered with health insurance for life, both my wife and I and I receive a decent pension for life!
I have the same thing but, so far, only in my neck. The neck pain can be excruciating at times, but they haven't found a way to do a neck replacement yet. I've often thought of trying some do it yourself surgery with a chainsaw however. :-). Thankfully, narcotics work well enough to at least allow me to turn my neck and dulls the pain to a tolerable level. I don't know what I'd do without them, so sometimes being a dope addict is least of all the evils. I was a paramedic for 18 years and probably know too much about my various problems for my own good. If I believed everything on the patient medication sheets I'd probably never get out of bed in the morning.

As you wrote, the only cure is get up, get moving, and do things. I'm 68 now so I'm probably never going to feel any better than I do right now. Compared to other guys my age, I'm still lucky. I can still drive, still do yard work, help the neighbor build a 300 foot wood fence, and even take Radar Dog for his daily 2 mile walks. It's really easy to spend a lot of "poor me" time when one has chronic diseases but I really feel blessed that I'm still as healthy as I am, and my brain still (mostly) functions. The only thing that really cranks me off is I have intractable hypertension, so my pilot's license got yanked. :-(
Quoting 597. Saltydogbwi1:

A couple of things to note about 94L, The area of ocean it is currently over is pretty shallow so water temps should remain warm and constant as it can't stir up cool deep water as it moves slowly around in the area. The area of land 94L is closest to is very very flat and swampy. So until 94L moves a good ways inland it may not be affected by land too much. Those are the things going for it. What is against it in a big way is the amount of dry air north and south of the system getting injected into it. This I think is what the NHC is seeing also and is keeping their odds of development so low.....I agree with them. Until the conditions surrounding it change we wont see much out of this one. Just my take and I have been wrong before lol

Just to add It could wall itself off from dry air if it becomes a very tightly compact little system. I don't want to sound like I am brushing it off. Even if it does not become anything of note, systems like this heading into Central America can bring a lot of rain with it, triggering mudslides and flooding so it is something to keep an eye on if you live in that area.
Quoting 602. sar2401:

I have the same thing but, so far, only in my neck. The neck pain can be excruciating at times, but they haven't found a way to do a neck replacement yet. I've often thought of trying some do it yourself surgery with a chainsaw however. :-). Thankfully, narcotics work well enough to at least allow me to turn my neck and dulls the pain to a tolerable level. I don't know what I'd do without them, so sometimes being a dope addict is least of all the evils. I was a paramedic for 18 years and probably know too much about my various problems for my own good. If I believed everything on the patient medication sheets I'd probably never get out of bed in the morning.

As you wrote, the only cure is get up, get moving, and do things. I'm 68 now so I'm probably never going to feel any better than I do right now. Compared to other guys my age, I'm still lucky. I can still drive, still do yard work, help the neighbor build a 300 foot wood fence, and even take Radar Dog for his daily 2 mile walks. It's really easy to spend a lot of "poor me" time when one has chronic diseases but I really feel blessed that I'm still as healthy as I am, and my brain still (mostly) functions. The only thing that really cranks me off is I have intractable hypertension, so my pilot's license got yanked. :-(

More power to you brother, with AS you have to keep moving and judge the right time between rest and movement, bad about your pilots license though, I'm actually thinking about learning how to fly :), my BP is controlled with medications and so is my diabetes especially since I dropped about 40lbs!, Small world!
Quoting CosmicEvents:

I got a recruitment site involving cookies in bunk beds in close quarters.
Maybe you can provide the navy link showing this going/meandering NE?
It's the Navy site that supports the NAVGEM and usually has good coverage of invests. This is a still of the IR now. It appears to me that part of the circulation is clearly coming onshore. You can run it through a loop and see if you think there's some reason why 94L will do a 180 and head over to the Caymans.

Quoting sar2401:
Even with our very dry year, except for my lawn, water is not a problem. Alabama was far ahead of other eastern states in the 20's and 30's, building many hydro plants with their attendant reservoirs. This helped us with water for agricultural irrigation, flood control, and steady sources of water from domestic consumption. The 14 hydro plants versus only 6 fossil fuel plants helps make Alabama electricity some of the least expensive in the country.

Environmentalism was never a strong issue here until about the last 25 years, so the Corps of Engineers was able to build a big dam and reservoir, 85 miles long and with a 465 mile shoreline, right on the border of Alabama and Georgia. It was finished in 1965, a time when these kinds of large dam/reservoir projects were stopped from being built in other parts of the country. As a result, we have beautiful Lake Eufaula/Walter F. George (two different names depending on which side of the state line you're on) that's useful for commercial barge traffic, recreation, including fishing and hunting, as well as boating. It was the last link in the chain of dams and reservoirs that allows you to hop in your sailboat just south of Atlanta and sail all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. On top of all this, our karst geology means we have lots of artesian wells too.

So, bottom line, except for the stuff that won't fall from the sky onto my lawn, we have no water problems. :-)


That's good to know. As you may know, we're not short of water in Jamaica. In fact, we use less than 25% of our water resources. Most of our available water is in the form of groundwater. Our highest water demand is along the southern coast, especially within the Kingston metro area. The geology in the aforementioned area, limits large underground aquifers, so most of the water is derived from dams/reservoirs. We could pump watet from elsewhere, to supply the Kingston area, but high electricity tariffs will be a limitation.

The sad thing is, large enough dams were not built in the past to support the population of the Kingston metro area. We received some positive news earlier, a feasibility study will be done to see if a large can be built in Bog Walk. But these takee time, I doubt there will be any objection to such a project; the area floods consistently, and it's a more north south route. Though an expressway is being built to bypass bog walk. Anyways, a dam/reservoir is definitely needed to supply sufficient and reliable water resources.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I agree infact go on the navy site and click 94L and look at the most recent microwave pass and tell me what you think


While 94L is looking decent, it is about to move inland. It will bring some good rains to Central America and dissipate.
Quoting 562. 62901IL:


Hey tazzy taz. I am taking this one like this: It's a FAAAKE!!!!


DS9?


well, weather been basically North Wales'ish for a while now. Ex Gonzalo was the average wind/rain event. And it's been contiuing on and off. Still been quite mild though. Went to a funfair Saturday night, that was having a Halloween thing with fireworks, and was very comfortable for night time here LOL Halloween's not a real big thing here, so it was quite fun. It has grown quite a bit since I first moved here, but still nothing like the states.

Ana looks so weird on the main map, being so far north in the N/E Pac!

And always be sure you have smoke alarms! I lost one of my best friends a few weeks ago, and a smoke alarm very likely would have prevented it :(

Take care y'all :)


Cute little storm set to make landfall on the Nic /Hon border unless things change!
612. 882MB


Future 95L? Seems likely models develop a low pressure out of this Tropical wave, and move it NE of the islands, although 18z runs, have shifted a little closer to the islands as the cold front north of DR, moves away and High pressure builds in. This is the same wave I have been tracking throughout this whole week.
Quoting stormpetrol:

More power to you brother, with AS you have to keep moving and judge the right time between rest and movement, bad about your pilots license though, I'm actually thinking about learning how to fly :), my BP is controlled with medications and so is my diabetes especially since I dropped about 40lbs!, Small world!
I have typical resistant hypertension, and I've had it since I've been about 25. All of my family also has the same problem, so there's definitely a genetic component. BP meds were controlling it well until I got to 50, and then they worked less and less well. I'm on lisinopril 20 three times a day, which keeps it down to about 135 over 90. Not horrible for a geezer but too high for the FAA. I don't know what the pilot training opportunities are in the Caymans but I was able to go to a junior college for ground school and then joined an owners club to complete the flight training. We had about 30 members and five planes, so you had to reserve in advance, but all the maintenance was done by the club mechanics and I only paid a wet rate per hour. I would have loved to have my own aircraft but the costs will eat you alive, especially if you're just a recreational pilot. If the opportunity presents itself and you can afford it, I'd go for it in a heartbeat. Flying and diving are the two things that let me forget I'm attached to a pretty untalented human body. :-)
Quoting 590. wunderkidcayman:


I wonder if wash knows that it's only wash that is fantasizing about hurricane hitting cayman because no one else is talking about it but wash


How many think 94L will develop and affect the Caymans? But don't say it explicitly ...
Quoting 539. wunderkidcayman:



Caribboy I know your deeply disappointed that NHC did not mentioned the wave E of the Islands


Yes I am. I want another storm. Honestly :-)

I loved how Gonzalo affected our weather! Very nice storm...
Quoting 882MB:


Future 95L? Seems likely models develop a low pressure out of this Tropical wave, and move it NE of the islands, although 18z runs, have shifted a little closer to the islands as the cold front north of DR, moves away and High pressure builds in. This is the same wave I have been tracking throughout this whole week.
Might be. I've been saying for a while that 94L is really a bit player, but that wave can cause some real trouble in the eastern Caribbean. I don't think any of the models have a handle on development, track, or intensity yet but, purely from climatology, it's in a good place. As usual, we'll just have to watch how it develops and not get too involved in models showing something getting flattened in 384 hours. :-)
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


DS9?


well, weather been basically North Wales'ish for a while now. Ex Gonzalo was the average wind/rain event. And it's been contiuing on and off. Still been quite mild though. Went to a funfair Saturday night, that was having a Halloween thing with fireworks, and was very comfortable for night time here LOL Halloween's not a real big thing here, so it was quite fun. It has grown quite a bit since I first moved here, but still nothing like the states.

Ana looks so weird on the main map, being so far north in the N/E Pac!

And always be sure you have smoke alarms! I lost one of my best friends a few weeks ago, and a smoke alarm very likely would have prevented it :(

Take care y'all :)
Oh my, how terrible. I have it in my calendar to change batteries every time we switch times for the season. It's about every six months, so enough time to get some use from the battery without carrying it to the bitter end. Glad to hear ex-Gonzalo hasn't been beating you up too bad.
Quoting 613. sar2401:

I have typical resisten hypertenson, and I've had it since I've been about 25. All of my family also has the same problem, so there's definitely a genetic component. BP meds were controlling it well until I got to 50, and then they worked less and less well. I'm on lisinopril 20 three times a day, which keeps it down to about 135 over 90. Not horrible for a geezer but too high for the FAA. I don't know what the pilot training opportunities are in the Caymans but I was able to go to a junior college for ground school and then joined an owners club to complete the flight training. We had about 30 members and five planes, so you had to reserve in advance, but all the maintenance was done by the club mechanics and I only paid a wet rate per hour. I would have loved to have my own aircraft but the costs will eat you alive, especially if you're just a recreational pilot. If the opportunity presents itself and you can afford it, I'd go for it in a heartbeat. Flying and diving are the two things that let me forget I'm attached to a pretty untalented human body. :-)

My dad is 86, my mom 81 all a history of HTN, my dad had a stroke last year Dec from afib, he has recovered significantly tho he has mild dementia our family is pretty long lived despite medical issues! My BP averages out around 117/75, you might suggest to your DR. to change your meds to Atenolol 50mg daily , losartan(cozaar 50mg) and HCTZ 25mg daily and see if you can get it down to 130/80. Anyways looks like 94L will be a Pacific storm for now! Everyone have great night!
Quoting 502. stormpetrol:



Oh I tolerate them, that's why I move on and don"t engage, I personally don't see you as a bad person, but then I guess we live in 2 different worlds that's why we are so far apart, peace my friend , stick with your beliefs and I'll stick with mine.
In this politically correct world, you have just described yourself as a separatist, or more commonly known as an isolationist. The only thing you can do against such an attack on your obviously disadvantaged perch is to eat better food. Then you have won the battle without compromising a thing. I have just planned my next meal thinking about your squabble, 'red beans and wild rice, with onion ... a slice of butter, and Conecuh sausage'. You have already tried your way, but my way is better.
Saints 44, Packers 23.... Good Night All
94L is much better together this ASCAT pass.

The only thing preventing 09L from regenerating is an inevitable landfall along the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Gotta admire its tenacity, at any rate.
Where is O9L going long term? Back over the Yucatan and then back to the SW Caribbean? Long term player here? Or DOA over land?
Quoting 623. DeepSeaRising:

Where is O9L going long term? Back over the Yucatan and then back to the SW Caribbean? Long term player here? Or DOA over land?


It's gonna annihilate everyone on the Gulf Coast, obviously.
Quoting 624. KoritheMan:



It's gonna annihilate everyone on the Gulf Coast, obviously.


Knew it Kori! Cat 5, Gulf's Haiyan headed towards your house. Living the dream. Your going to chase it in a Pinto and give us live updates. Truly 2014 is not a dead season after all. Watch for close following traffic.
Quoting stormpetrol:

My dad is 86, my mom 81 all a history of HTN, my dad had a stroke last year Dec from afib, he has recovered significantly tho he has mild dementia our family is pretty long lived despite medical issues! My BP averages out around 117/75, you might suggest to your DR. to change your meds to Atenolol 50mg daily , losartan(cozaar 50mg) and HCTZ 25mg daily and see if you can get it down to 130/80. Anyways looks like 94L will be a Pacific storm for now! Everyone have great night!
Thanks for the tips, SP. I've been on cozaar and that was good until it just quit working after about five years, something that's common with resistant hypertension. I haven't tried Atenolol yet so I'll talk to him on my next visit. Been on HGTZ for about 25 years and I'm not convinced that's doing anything for me but give me leg cramps. :-) Both my parents lived into their 80's, mom dying of a series of CVA's when she was 82. My dad died at 85 due to letting a moron treat him for prostate cancer, which ended up giving him bladder cancer, and made the last six months of his life absolute misery. I stopped having P{SA's as if two years ago. My readings have always been WNL, and I don't want some doctor trying to convince me into starting treatment for something that's not likely to kill me before an MI or CVA does.

Your BP sounds fine for your pilot's license. The FAA will perk up about your diabetes though, so just make sure you can prove it's been under control for at least three years and have a good strong letter from your doctor about the course of the disease. The FAA can't take joke about any medical condition that could cause you to become disoriented or unconscious.
Quoting 615. CaribBoy:



Yes I am. I want another storm. Honestly :-)

I loved how Gonzalo affected our weather! Very nice storm...
I haven't had a storm since 2004, everything else was ether the dry side or just some little rain.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 27 2014
=========================================

Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 0:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea moved northwards, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and lays centered near 14.8N 62.0E, about 1180 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1245 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 885 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would move initially northwards during next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.5 associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 11.0N to 17.0N 57.0E to 66.0E.

The convection shows eye pattern. The eye temperature is 1.7C. The estimated central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 990 hPa. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is about 55 knots gusting to 65 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 15.5 62.0 - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 16.5/61.7 - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 18.4 61.2 - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 20.7 63.8 - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
==================
The vertical wind shear remained same during past 12 hours and is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours. Under these circumstances the convective cloud in association with the system is organizing further and is eye pattern at present. The system is moving slowly as it lies very close to the ridge in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east southeast of the system and another to the northwest over Oman. The speed of movement of the system would peak up with north northwestward movement gradually today. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial north northwestward movement up to 36 hours. Thereafter, it would re-curve northeastwards. Towards north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.

The system will have peak intensity of very severe cyclonic storm (70-75 knots gusting to 85 knots) during next 48 hours. However, after that, it would experience higher vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and also it may interact with land surface. As a result, the system may weaken into a severe cyclonic storm (55-60 knots gusting to 65 knots) at the time of landfall over northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
629. JRRP

Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Where is O9L going long term? Back over the Yucatan and then back to the SW Caribbean? Long term player here? Or DOA over land?
Either DOA or makes it back to the Pacific. If it does get into the Yucatan, that's when a bunch of the Gulf Coast crowd gets to wishcast it up toward us. We haven't had a storm anywhere close enough to wishcast with a straight face. :-)
Quoting CaribBoy:


How many think 94L will develop and affect the Caymans? But don't say it explicitly ...
There's a fine line between a hobby and an obsession sometimes...
Fresh ASCAT of the blob east of the Windward Islands.

633. JRRP

shear is dropping east of the antilles
I don't know what the NHC is going to say for the 0200 TWO but the JSL view sure makes it look like half the deep convection is already onshore. As has been said, most of the land in that area is low-lying mangrove swamps, so 94L can stay alive a bit better over land for another 8 hours or so.



It appears to be picking forward speed as it moved SSW, and the dry air is not going to trouble the storm as much over land. I'm actually starting to believe that, if it doesn't dissipate in the next 12 hours, it may have a chance for a round trip and make it back into the Pacific. Strange stuff this season.

Quoting 634. sar2401:

I don't know what the NHC is going to say for the 0200 TWO but the JSL view sure makes it look like half the deep convection is already onshore. As has been said, most of the land in that area is low-lying mangrove swamps, so 94L can stay alive a bit better over land for another 8 hours or so.



It appears to be picking forward speed as it moved SSW, and the dry air is not going to trouble the storm as much over land. I'm actually starting to believe that, if it doesn't dissipate in the next 12 hours, it may have a chance for a round trip and make it back into the Pacific. Strange stuff this season.




What I think could happen, and is supported by the GFS and ECMWF, is that a complex area of disturbed weather eventually develops south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec around this time of next week as the remnant vortmax associated with 09L moves southwestward into the Pacific, interacts with the monsoon trough and an approaching tropical wave about to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea. Whether this disturbance eventually breeds another cyclone (Wallis since Vance is probably going to form) remains to be seen, but I do think the pattern favors the possibility of that happening.
Really good to see you still here Sar. You and your pity banter are much needed when the season hasn't come to fruition and the regulars are few. Plus it's good to see you cuz, well your old and withered, but your acumen is still young and full of vigor.
Quoting 636. DeepSeaRising:

Really good to see you still here Sar. You and your pity banter are much needed when the season hasn't come to fruition and the regulars are few. Plus it's good to see you cuz, well your old and withered, but your acumen is still young and full of vigor.


Did I tell you I'm getting my GED in January? I'm pretty sure I'll be ready by then.
638. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Although showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased and become more concentrated during
the past 12 hours, surface pressures are not falling. The low is
expected to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land later
today, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting KoritheMan:


What I think could happen, and is supported by the GFS and ECMWF, is that a complex area of disturbed weather eventually develops south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec around this time of next week as the remnant vortmax associated with 09L moves southwestward into the Pacific, interacts with the monsoon trough and an approaching tropical wave about to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea. Whether this disturbance eventually breeds another cyclone (Wallis since Vance is probably going to form) remains to be seen, but I do think the pattern favors the possibility of that happening.
This is really a tough one to call. My experience is that when a low crosses from the Pacific to the BOC, and the low then transits the Yucatan and stays in one piece, it makes a dash for the middle of the Yucatan Channel and tries to establish itself in the northern Caribbean or western Gulf of Mexico. Instead, 94L has been hugging the coast for quite a while, which tells me conditions away from land are pretty hostile.

If it keeps moving south before it makes landfall, it may be near Bluefields. If you look at a map of Nicaragua, that part of the country has not much land but does have Lake Nicaragua, 3100 square miles of shallow (but not too shallow) warm water with conditions not dissimilar to the Caribbean. Given the weak steering currents, I can see it wandering around that area for a few days. After that, it could go straight back into the Pacific or continue wandering toward Honduras.

I think I called for Central American landfall two days ago, so I get cookie for that, but I really don't have a clue what 94L is going to do after landfall. The one thing I know for sure is this is an epic fail on the part of the GFS. What was it, Friday, when the GFS was calling for a Florida landfall as a cat 2 on this Tuesday? I keep hoping people will pay less attention to models and more to synoptics and conditions, but I know that won't happen. 94L is a great example of how models can fail, even in the relatively short term.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Did I tell you I'm getting my GED in January? I'm pretty sure I'll be ready by then.
Ready for what by then? I must say, you're about the smartest non-high school graduate I've ever met. Way back in the old days, you could challenge a college admittance test if you didn't graduate high school. If you passed the test, you could be in college next week. I wish that option was still available for people like you.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Really good to see you still here Sar. You and your pity banter are much needed when the season hasn't come to fruition and the regulars are few. Plus it's good to see you cuz, well your old and withered, but your acumen is still young and full of vigor.
Pithy banter....there's a term I haven't heard for a while. I have decided that, when the blog goes into meltdown mode over some nothing invest, I'll just lurk, since I have no death and destruction to add to the conversation, and no one wants to hear anything else.

It's not so bad now since the people who were really "pumping" the models have, I guess, decided to take a break. That would be a good idea if the time was used to try to discover what went wrong with the models and what signs should they watch for the next time the models are having a nervous breakdown. Unfortunately, I suspect they are really off looking for even more obscure models to use next time. :-)
Quoting 638. JRRP:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Although showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased and become more concentrated during
the past 12 hours, surface pressures are not falling. The low is
expected to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land later
today, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain
RIP?
Quoting 640. sar2401:

Ready for what by then? I must say, you're about the smartest non-high school graduate I've ever met. Way back in the old days, you could challenge a college admittance test if you didn't graduate high school. If you passed the test, you could be in college next week. I wish that option was still available for people like you.


Ready for the GED. After that I'm undecided, but still Air Force most likely.
644. JRRP
645. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
RIP?

yeah..
Good Morning,

Looks like we get our first real shot of cold air starting Halloween per our local meterologists..Trick and treaters will need to bundle up when collecting the goodies..Saturday and Sunday will have lows in the mid 30's..

I can finally say it.."brrrrr"...:)
Quoting 646. LargoFl:


How about some 10 day GFS models for fun to start the morning.
Early Saturday - I posted the 12z vs.6z because it had colder temps.
Quoting jjjerry1:
How about some 10 day GFS models for fun to start the morning.


35 comments and not one comment contributing to the blog.
Quoting 650. Sfloridacat5:



35 posts and not one post contributing to the blog.
Correct, but I don't SUBTRACT by posting crap.
Quoting jjjerry1:
Correct, but I don't SUBTRACT by posting crap.


Why don't you post some information about your area?
The blog is pretty much dead for the next 7 months.

But you better get ready for 7-10 day models showing possible snow storms. These will be mostly from the people who live in the mid Atlantic and New England.


good.morning..94 is spinning pretty good. gfs smells another cyclone heading to western mexico maybe cabo.
Good Morning
Quoting 652. Sfloridacat5:



Why don't you post some information about your area?
The blog is pretty much dead for the next 7 months.

But you better get ready for 7-10 day models showing possible snow storms. These will be mostly from the people who live in the mid Atlantic and New England.



I have lived in south florida since 1960 my first hurricane was Cleo. I am an expert in water and wastewater treatment not hurricanes. I deep sea fish every weekend you name it I catch it. Grouper for lunch today stone crabs for dinner.
Here's the GFS for early Sunday.
Temperatures very similar to Saturday.

Actually these temps are not all that cold for the beginning of November.
It can get a lot colder than this during the firt week of November.

Example - record for Nov. 1st for Orlando is 37 degrees.

Quoting jjjerry1:
I have lived in south florida since 1960 my first hurricane was Cleo. I am an expert in water and wastewater treatment not hurricanes. I deep sea fish every weekend you name it I catch it. Grouper for lunch today stone crabs for dinner.


Okay jjj, pretty good. You must also have an interest in weather.

Did you get a lot of rain from that last system? I know some parts of S.E. Florida got some pretty heavy rain?
I'm in Lee County a little S.E. of Fort Myers.

Very dry over here.
14" below normal for the year. Only 1.24" for the month of October.

If we don't get some decent rains this Winter we'll see a lot of bad brush fires (which are usually started purposely).
659. MahFL
Quoting 646. LargoFl:



DOOM, LBAR heads to FL......
The next front coming down later this week will shut the door on anything moving north.
I'm just hoping we'll see a little rain with the passage of the front.
But usually the fronts are pretty dry by the time they get to my area.


Just absolutely perfect weather all weekend here in Tampa. Looking at this, it's pretty clear why.
Link

Just absolutely perfect weather all weekend here in Tampa. Looking at this, it's pretty clear why.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
along the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Although this system is showing signs of development, the low is
forecast to move southwestward inland over Nicaragua later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible
over portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during
the day.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quoting 660. Sfloridacat5:

The next front coming down later this week will shut the door on anything moving north.
I'm just hoping we'll see a little rain with the passage of the front.
But usually the fronts are pretty dry by the time they get to my area.


Yeah I agree the Sub Tropical jet is very well established now and the reason is El-Nino has started it as we have seen a tremendous SOI crash over the last week, the PDO has spiked to over 1.0, the ESPI is hovering around .70, and 3.4 has been constantly hovering around .5. What is interesting to me is the recent SOI crash has caused the models to go into a tail spin infact I wouldn't be surprised to see atleast some snow Saturday from NYC to Boston with lows in the teens and highs near 30 across interior New England and its possible that FL could have a big drop in temps from this crash as well as this pattern supports a very deep trough across the east especially with Ana moving into Canada.

Now with El-Nino starting it is just a matter of time before the southern jet gets active and we see southern stream system traveling across the Gulf & Southern US infact the Euro ensembles do show this in its long range models this morning.



SOI values for 27 Oct 2014
Average for last 30 days -8.4
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -10.6



Did Steve change the Blog format or is this how Dr. M is blogging from now on?
I much prefer the images with the discussion topics rather than all crammed in at the end.
It helps to see what you are talking about as you are reading rather than treating the blog like a science paper that I have to reference the numbered figures.
-oh, lots has changed with icons and such.
meh.
Quoting 652. Sfloridacat5:



Why don't you post some information about your area?
The blog is pretty much dead for the next 7 months.

But you better get ready for 7-10 day models showing possible snow storms. These will be mostly from the people who live in the mid Atlantic and New England.





Some never post weather related items just attack others opinions. I think we should send some of these people on here to the I-4 "Dead Zone" over in Sanford. TWC did a great piece on this last night.
Lol bumped right up to medium chance

I disagreed with WSW a movement

Infact currently where I have the LLC somewhere about 15.3N 82.9W and movement is W-WNW

Which I'd expect considering the High in the NE GOM is now dissipating and moving E out the GOM

I say it just may miss land by a hairline or comes onshore for a short time before coming offshore N-NE of Honduras E of Rotan
Just MHO -my humble observation
It's been a struggle to get these temps down but hopefully next weekend we can do that. Well see if the models can respond to this latest SOI crash.

Orlando


We got Hanna.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271233
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms
along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and
satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a
result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical
storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg


Edit- Never mind. Looks like we have Hanna!
Quoting 657. Sfloridacat5:



Okay jjj, pretty good. You must also have an interest in weather.

Did you get a lot of rain from that last system? I know some parts of S.E. Florida got some pretty heavy rain? 6 inches which is heavy but i saw 24 inches in 24 houres in the late 70's
Just got one of these seems like it got fixed

Internal Server Error

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Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.


Anyway after reviewing the new daylight images LLC could possibly be much further S and E like somewhere around 14.5N 82.5W

Obviously I'm gonna need more data to be sure I don't this I'm even right on this but we will see
TS Hanna it is!

Take about a bust from NHC last night.
TS Hanna, coming ashore.

Accuweather calling for a warm November.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It's been a struggle to get these temps down but hopefully next weekend we can do that. Well see if the models can respond to this latest SOI crash.

Orlando




Accuweather is calling for a warm November for the Eastcoast and Florida.

Quick blasts of cold air like next weekend but followed by quick warming.
Quoting 672. MAweatherboy1:

Edit- Never mind. Looks like we have Hannah!


? Hannah?
Quoting 677. Sfloridacat5:

Accuweather calling for a warm November.



Accuweather is calling for a warm November for the Eastcoast and Florida.

Quick blasts of cold air like next weekend, but followed by quick warming.


That might be premature by them. I think a cooler and wetter pattern might be a couple of weeks away although like you said a quick cold shot is possible this weekend.
Quoting 678. StormTrackerScott:



? Hannah?

Thought it had an h at the end. Fixed it.
From Tropical Atlantic

Tropical Storm Hanna

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 12:00 Z

Location at the time:

340 statue miles (548 km) to the SSW (197°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

Wind (1 min. avg.):
35 knots (~40 mph | 18 m/s | 65 km/h)

Pressure:
1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)

Coordinates:
14.6N 82.9W
Yup We've got Hanna- in some ways -a late call...However, all things considered its still a sign of very good meteorological assessment and competence being exercised by the (NWS) NHCC, NOAA etc...a SPECIAL Tropical update Bulletin expected by 9a.m...

God Bless us All!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
TS Hanna it is!

Take about a bust from NHC last night.



000
ABNT20 KNHC 271233
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms
along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and
satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a
result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical
storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg
You know..all this weekend when I checked in here I saw nothing but ridiculing WKC..I would expect to see a lot of apologies this morning..of course that won't happen..just people missing or having computer issues as always..

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
13 mins ·

NHC has just issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook - Tropical Storm Hanna has formed.

The small low pressure system - the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine - is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation.

As a result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by NHC by 9 a.m. EDT /1300 UTC. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Get the very latest on this newly formed tropical cyclone on the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
Looks like Hanna will be a now you see it, now you don't kind of situation.

Well done to all who predicted this developing. Obviously it's not heading to the Caymans, Florida, etc., nor is it a major hurricane... but it did develop! Post season re-analysis may also update the record to show it became a TD or TS a little sooner than in the past hour or two; it may have been one for much of last night given that it has looked basically the same for the last 12 hours or so.

Quoting ncstorm:
You know..all this weekend when I checked in here I saw nothing but ridiculing WKC..I would expect to see a lot of apologies this morning..of course that won't happen..just people missing or having computer issues as always..

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
13 mins ·

NHC has just issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook - Tropical Storm Hanna has formed.

The small low pressure system - the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine - is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation.

As a result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by NHC by 9 a.m. EDT /1300 UTC. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Get the very latest on this newly formed tropical cyclone on the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov


++
Surprising we have Hanna, but I guess it's similar to Tropical Storm Dolly earlier in the year. Although a little late on putting up TS warnings now as it's already making landfall.

I guess that means we now have the dreaded I storm next. I wonder if the curse of the I storms will live on this season.

So that makes three named storms for October.

Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna
I know this is off topic, but I am expecting 5 little ducklings to hatch very soon, everyone wish me luck!
Comment 686, obviously it wasn't supposed to develop either..
Agree, these are normal temps. Every year there is a Pecan Festival first weekend after Halloween. Every year we have a shot of cold a day or two before the parade. One year even had mixed rain, sleet, snow. This year the parade is Saturday. There ya go. It will be glorious with all the sunshine.

Normally around Oct 20th I do the last race of the season for me ( I didn't do it this year as I surfed my cajones off during Gonzalo swell; well worth it BTW). It starts in a heated pool. Usually lows in upper 30's in the morning, warming up to 60's. This year has actually been much warmer. I've yet to dip below 40F for a low. One night was awfully close, but the airport has not yet dropped below 40F this fall.

I doubt I will ever see a nicer October in my part of the world ever again. It was (is) glorious. I was outside as much as possible.


Quoting 656. Sfloridacat5:

Here's the GFS for early Sunday.
Temperatures very similar to Saturday.

Actually these temps are not all that cold for the beginning of November.
It can get a lot colder than this during the firt week of November.

Example - record for Nov. 1st for Orlando is 37 degrees.



000
WTNT24 KNHC 271301
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1500 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 83.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 83.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

694. SLU
Quoting 675. StormTrackerScott:

TS Hanna it is!

Take about a bust from NHC last night.


Oh my. That's the mother of all busts.
...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...
11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 14.5°N 83.2°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
HELLO: HANNA!

The 8th named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has formed~!

After all that traversing over land and fighting off dry air, and dealing with mostly unfavorable conditions during most of its existence, ex-T.D. #9 finally made a name for itself.

Shows you that a small system can ramp up fast, given the right conditions~ !!!!!

NEXT ?? !!!
Quoting 691. ncstorm:

Comment 686, obviously it wasn't supposed to develop either..

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by that... obviously as usual you're trying to take a shot at me because that's just what you do... but I don't get it. It wasn't supposed to develop. To be truthful, I hadn't been thinking about it for the past couple days, I don't think I posted on the blog at all this weekend. Was at the 15th annual Southern New England Weather Conference all day Saturday (a great conference) and busy getting caught up on other stuff yesterday. But in my few visits to the NHC site it never appeared they were expecting development.


The local weather station showed percentages at 100%/100% and I thought I was mistaken. Well, I guess I am not!
699. SLU
TS Hanna

Cooler and drier for the East Coast, and SE, FL thru the first week of November.


I still say the LLC is further N and E around 14.7N 82.5W
I'm reminded of Claudette in 2009. One of our frequent users, TampaSpin, claimed up and down that a tropical storm was developing off the coast of Tampa when the National Hurricane Center had it as a low chance of developing. A few hours later, it was a tropical depression and later a tropical storm. Meteorology is hard, everything claimed about Hanna is still completely valid. The small size is the result of the highly unfavorable conditions for development that did not allow Hanna to strengthen beyond what it did.
Hello Hanna, hello blog from foggy-sunny Germany.

Ex-Gonzalo has reached Australia, hrrrmm:

Melbourne and Adelaide battered by southern Australia storms
BBC, 27 October 2014 Last updated at 04:12 GMT

No, of course not Ex-Gonzalo. I'm just kidding. No European Ex-Gonzalo news any longer, it seems ;-)

Good news from Bermuda:

Digicel Restored, Offers Free International Calls
Bernews, October 27, 2014 |
Digicel announced their network is fully restored following Hurricane Gonzalo, and as their ‘thank you’ to customers, the company is offering postpaid customers 30 free minutes of international talk time per day through October 31st 2014.
Alistair Beak, CEO of Digicel Bermuda says; “Bermuda has made an amazing recovery post Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo and Digicel has put everything into restoring our network thanks to the network upgrades executed by our Bermudian field engineers Steven, Matthew and Blaine [pictured below].
“Our technical team especially has selflessly worked non-stop during the recovery process for which we are truly grateful. ...
704. ryang
So we now stand at 8-6-2
Can anyone say "Dry Air"? I think its safe to say the Gulf is shut down for the year.

Quoting 610. stormpetrol:



Cute little storm set to make landfall on the Nic /Hon border unless things change!
If it was nudged to the north a bit, 94 would be a much bigger problem.
I guess the blog will need to be updated now since it says
"INVEST 94L UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYTIME SOON"






Hanna can still head to the W-WNW as opposed to SW as the NHC has it. We shall see.

Quoting ryang:
So we now stand at 8-6-2


Yep, that'll hurt the one that forecasted 5-7 and was claiming victory not long ago lol, but you got to give it to the NHC as they called for 9-11 named this year. I still think we get one more.
wunderkidcayman A lot folks threw stones at you. You stated the facts, great job
Looking pretty dry. 0.04" forecasted with passage here. I could actually use a little rain. Mostly for the lawn before it goes dormant.

Sorry Sar, you're not the only serious lawn guy here...lol. Best Centipede in the Subdivision...lol.

Quoting 660. Sfloridacat5:

The next front coming down later this week will shut the door on anything moving north.
I'm just hoping we'll see a little rain with the passage of the front.
But usually the fronts are pretty dry by the time they get to my area.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Yep, that'll hurt the one that forecasted 5-7 and was claiming victory not long ago lol, but you got to give it to the NHC as they called for 9-11 named this year. I still think we get one more.
I think that was Scott.
Tropical Storm Hanna is not at all unexpected. You never, ever take your eye off a meandering disturbance over warm waters in a low wind shear environment. The NHC will reanalyze Hanna in the off-season, and it wouldn't surprise me if they pushed back the time of genesis by 12-18 hours.

NHC has the cone posted now. It shows Hanna moving S.W. and dissipating sometime tomorrow.
Quoting 709. WxGuy2014:



Yep, that'll hurt the one that forecasted 5-7 and was claiming victory not long ago lol, but you got to give it to the NHC as they called for 9-11 named this year. I still think we get one more.

All around, it was a very well forecast hurricane season by the official agencies. NOAA, CSU, etc. I got to hear a talk from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of CSU at the Southern New England Weather Conference on Saturday. While the ratio of named storms to hurricanes this year was a little funky, it balances out, as usual, when you incorporate ACE, and in terms of ACE they are likely to have their best forecasting year ever at CSU (coming off their worst seasonal forecast last year).


Tropical Storm HANNA IS HERE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HANNA MOVES INLAND...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
Quoting hydrus:
If it was nudged to the north a bit, 94 would be a much bigger problem.


Hanna could still be

Quoting yankees440:






Hanna can still head to the W-WNW as opposed to SW as the NHC has it. We shall see.



As I stated before

Quoting mgreen91:
wunderkidcayman A lot folks threw stones at you. You stated the facts, great job


Ah thanks



Hmmmm...



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I still say the LLC is further N and E around 14.7N 82.5W
I have a question, how old are you again? Just wondering.
Good Morning All. Had a busy weekend and missed the formation of Hannah. Looking like a classic frontal remnant ("left behind") that some of the models hinted at last week but in the NW Caribbean. At the very tail end of the front as it turned out and not further up in latitude to be picked up towards the NE.  Notwithstanding the lack of a threat to the US, don't discount the rain and mudslide threat for our friends in Central America; lots of people down there live in shanty-towns on mountain slopes in Honduras and Nicaragua.

Quoting yankees440:



Hmmmm...


Notice the dissipating high in the NE GOM
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Yep, that'll hurt the one that forecasted 5-7 and was claiming victory not long ago lol, but you got to give it to the NHC as they called for 9-11 named this year. I still think we get one more.


I called 8-4-2 going into this season (that's what I'm marked down for, at least).. so looks like I finally nailed a seasonal forecast assuming Isaac doesn't decide to develop.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 271322
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

Deep convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine have persisted and become better organized since yesterday.
In addition, ASCAT data from overnight indicate that the system was
producing 30-35 kt winds to the west of the center, just off of the
coast of Nicaragua. Therefore, advisories have been re-initiated,
with the system being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna.

The center of Hanna is very close to the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua. The system is moving west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt,
and should be inland over Nicaragua by this afternoon. A similar
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
cyclone dissipating by late Tuesday.

The main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall.
Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and
northern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding
and mud slides.

Since Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this
forecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to
expedite the release of forecast information. An intermediate
advisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at
5 PM EDT, as scheduled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


I just can not concur with the NHC official forecast track with Hanna. Looks as though the storm should continue on a West possibly WNW track with time as current steering currents show. I'm curious as to what their thinking is??
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Hanna could still be



As I stated before



Ah thanks
Yeah, you did a fantastic job of forecasting Hanna. High five.
MaWeatherboy..no shot taken at you..just calling it how I see it..you seem to want to congratulate those who stuck with development but at the same time state where its not going to those particular geographical bloggers as if they want it there..its you taking the shot so lets not act coy. You have been throwing shade since the potential was out there..you stated it wouldn't develop so yeah obviously you were wrong and maybe you might be wrong in where it will go next as well..but I'm sure though you will be complaining how terrible it looks in the next comments..obviously..

this season may have been boring to most but it has been most interesting to see a lot of the "experts" continually be wrong on this blog..I'm sorry if this come across as direct to some of the bloggers but I lurked a lot this weekend and saw a lot of the same posters continually attack WKC..yes he does have a bias but don't all of us do? and when he finally gets one right this season shade is still thrown in a half a** sorry congratulations..

I don't mind taking a ban if that's what happens, just had to finally put it out there..I hope those who are set on bullying others and those that plus those comments finally wake up and see how you appear to others on this blog..
Quoting yankees440:


I just can not concur with the NHC official forecast track with Hanna. Looks as though the storm should continue on a West possibly WNW track with time as current steering currents show. I'm curious as to what their thinking is??
That face is so excited that Hanna form.
925mb surface analysis

Quoting HurricaneAndre:
I have a question, how old are you again? Just wondering.


Somwhere between 20 and 32




Nice surface convergence and upper level divergence. If only it had more time over water.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I called 8-4-2 going into this season (that's what I'm marked down for, at least).. so looks like I finally nailed a seasonal forecast assuming Isaac doesn't decide to develop.


You were right on, good job! And the streak continues for no major hurricane hits since Wilma. I still find that unbelievable.
Make sure lots of crow gets added to the buffet this morning..

Hanna


I'm not surprised at all the way it was pulling together through the day yesterday, especially on ASCAT.
Quoting ncstorm:
MaWeatherboy..no shot taken at you..just calling it how I see it..you seem to want to congratulate those who stuck with development but at the same time state where its not going to those particular geographical bloggers as if they want it there..its you taking the shot so lets not act coy. You have been throwing shade since the potential was out there..you stated it wouldn't develop so yeah obviously you were wrong and maybe you might be wrong in where it will go next as well..but I'm sure though you will be complaining how terrible it looks in the next comments..obviously..

this season may have been boring to most but it has been most interesting to see a lot of the "experts" continually be wrong on this blog..I'm sorry if this come across as direct to some of the bloggers but I lurked a lot this weekend and saw a lot of the same posters continually attack WKC..yes he does have a bias but don't all of us do? and when he finally gets one right this season shade is still thrown in a half a** sorry congratulations..

I don't mind taking a ban if that's what happens, just had to finally put it out there..I hope those who are set on bullying others and those that plus those comments finally wake up and see how you appear to others on this blog..


I actually didn't find this season nearly as boring as I thought it was going to be, maybe it was how awesome Gonzalo was to track.
They are the experts but goes to show nobody is perfect. I was pretty much in disbelief when I saw 10% for what appeared to be at least a TD close to making landfall. My post is back there somewhere.

Quoting 694. SLU:



Oh my. That's the mother of all busts.
Quoting 730. ncstorm:

MaWeatherboy..no shot taken at you..just calling it how I see it..you seem to want to congratulate those who stuck with development but at the same time state where its not going to those particular geographical bloggers as if they want it there..its you taking the shot so lets not act coy. You have been throwing shade since the potential was out there..you stated it wouldn't develop so yeah obviously you were wrong and maybe you might be wrong in where it will go next as well..but I'm sure though you will be complaining how terrible it looks in the next comments..obviously..

this season may have been boring to most but it has been most interesting to see a lot of the "experts" continually be wrong on this blog..I'm sorry if this come across as direct to some of the bloggers but I lurked a lot this weekend and saw a lot of the same posters continually attack WKC..yes he does have a bias but don't all of us do? and when he finally gets one right this season shade is still thrown in a half a** sorry congratulations..

I don't mind taking a ban if that's what happens, just had to finally put it out there..I hope those who are set on bullying others and those that plus those comments finally wake up and see how you appear to others on this blog..


The logic behind the bans given by the mods is shaky at best. I put a post up last week about how I was going to put 'you know who' on ignore, and was inexplicably banned for 72 hours. Huh? Yet, others continually post similar posts calling him out, and don't get banned. Bottom line is there are a lot of people who throw out ridiculous forecasts on this blog, and deserve to be called out when they are often wrong.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Somwhere between 20 and 32
Ok thanks.
Quoting 730. ncstorm:

MaWeatherboy..no shot taken at you..just calling it how I see it..you seem to want to congratulate those who stuck with development but at the same time state where its not going to those particular geographical bloggers as if they want it there..its you taking the shot so lets not act coy. You have been throwing shade since the potential was out there..you stated it wouldn't develop so yeah obviously you were wrong and maybe you might be wrong in where it will go next as well..but I'm sure though you will be complaining how terrible it looks in the next comments..obviously..

this season may have been boring to most but it has been most interesting to see a lot of the "experts" continually be wrong on this blog..I'm sorry if this come across as direct to some of the bloggers but I lurked a lot this weekend and saw a lot of the same posters continually attack WKC..yes he does have a bias but don't all of us do? and when he finally gets one right this season shade is still thrown in a half a** sorry congratulations..

I don't mind taking a ban if that's what happens, just had to finally put it out there..I hope those who are set on bullying others and those that plus those comments finally wake up and see how you appear to others on this blog..

Yes, I was wrong, I thought that kind of came across but now I'll state it directly. I for one took no shots at WKC this weekend, I wasn't even here. Now I realize that you're right in saying what you said about some others here and how they will probably conveniently go missing today. Maybe I was having a little fun in saying it wasn't going to Florida or the Caymans... but you're just being petty in calling that out. I'm just calling it how I see it. It's unfortunate that you're trying to smear my reputation, although I'm confident most people here respect my opinion. You can stay here and continue the mud-slinging if you want, but I have to go. Class awaits. Have a good one.

Hopefully officials in the warnings areas for Hanna can get the word out about it; not a strong storm but they won't be expecting it and heavy rains are going to be a real issue.



One more thing- I agree with Cybr, this season was more exciting than last.
Some folks take themselves too seriously on here. It's just an amateur weather enthusiast Blog at face value and weather forecasting is not an exact science. It is what it is and we should be thankful that the US was spared from another major storm impact this year.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Ok thanks.


Thank btw why you want to know
Quoting 736. Skyepony:

Make sure lots of crow gets added to the buffet this morning..

Hanna


I'm not surprised at all the way it was pulling together through the day yesterday, especially on ASCAT.


The biggest crow eaters with Hanna is the NHC.
745. JRRP
10% 6h before and now Hanna.
LOL
Thanks. Haven't seen it yet. Wouldn't be surprised if she did something different (thinking WNW skirting coastline next 24 - 48), but maybe she'll be a little less problematic to forecast now that she has actually formed.

Quoting 714. Sfloridacat5:

NHC has the cone posted now. It shows Hanna moving S.W. and dissipating sometime tomorrow.
Good Morning Tropical Storm Hanna, heavy rainfall for Nicaragua and Honduras. Next up on the list is Isaias. One more month left in the hurricane season and anything is possible.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yes, I was wrong, I thought that kind of came across but now I'll state it directly. I for one took no shots at WKC this weekend, I wasn't even here. Now I realize that you're right in saying what you said about some others here and how they will probably conveniently go missing today. Maybe I was having a little fun in saying it wasn't going to Florida or the Caymans... but you're just being petty in calling that out. I'm just calling it how I see it. It's unfortunate that you're trying to smear my reputation, although I'm confident most people here respect my opinion. You can stay here and continue the mud-slinging if you want, but I have to go. Class awaits. Have a good one.

Hopefully officials in the warnings areas for Hanna can get the word out about it; not a strong storm but they won't be expecting it and heavy rains are going to be a real issue.



One more thing- I agree with Cybr, this season was more exciting than last.


Oh I can make a good list at who was put shots up me this weekend oh it a long list
The NHC night shift held off long enough for the day shift to have to prepare all of the advisories.
I'm not trying to smear your reputation so let's not act like a victim..I'm only stating what I have seen bloggers do or in fact just seen done this morning in your case pertaining to particular bloggers or their location ..Every day I see this on the blog and frankly I'm sick of it..maybe your fun isn't considered funny to those you are singling out eh?.. right is right and wrong is wrong..

A lot of bloggers have become just mean this season..I don't particularly know why nor do I care to know but it wish it would just stop.



Quoting 714. Sfloridacat5:

NHC has the cone posted now. It shows Hanna moving S.W. and dissipating sometime tomorrow.

Love it
To be totally honest with you the whole entire system looks to be moving W-WNW
Quoting 747. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning Tropical Storm Hanna, heavy rainfall for Nicaragua and Honduras. Next up on the list is Isaias. One more month left in the hurricane season and anything is possible.


So true! Although it is late in the season, anything can happen, and it appears the tropics have NOT shut down yet! "I" and "J" are the next names on the list. We will see what happens in November .... could get interesting!
Quoting 744. luvtogolf:



The biggest crow eaters with Hanna is the NHC.


I may be wrong but I think they still had the yellow x with 10% just last night.
Quoting 754. win1gamegiantsplease:



I may be wrong but I think they still had the yellow x with 10% just last night.


And I am pretty such their forecast track for Hanna is off. i just can't see it moving SSE when the steering currents are to the West and WNW.

I am extremely curious as to their forecast track reasoning
We really need a recon flight out there now
Quoting 754. win1gamegiantsplease:



I may be wrong but I think they still had the yellow x with 10% just last night.


2:00 this morning they gave it a 10% chance of developing. 6 hours later they declare it a TS.
Now why do they declare it a storm? It's going to be so short lived! It's like they're trying to trump up the low numbers some.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Thank btw why you want to know
Just wondering. lol.
Quoting yankees440:


And I am pretty such their forecast track for Hanna is off. i just can't see it moving SSE when the steering currents are to the West and WNW.

I agree

You mean SSW
Quoting 756. wunderkidcayman:

We really need a recon flight out there now


This will be on land before they could get in the air and down there to investigate.
762. JRRP
Nice vort east of the island
Quoting 756. wunderkidcayman:

We really need a recon flight out there now



no we dont that storm is out of time and by time the recon got there it would have all ready moved on too land that recon fight would be nothing but a wast of gas
Quoting 761. luvtogolf:



This will be on land before they could get in the air and down there to investigate.



and it would be nothing but a wast of gas
Quoting luvtogolf:


2:00 this morning they gave it a 10% chance of developing. 6 hours later they declare it a TS.


It's called the efficiency of the TWO


Quoting RickWPB:
Now why do they name it a storm? It's going to be so short lived! It's like they're trying to trump up the low numbers some.



Names have nothing to do with it its winds

I thought that was common knowledge
Reading the posts below me, glad I stayed away from the blog for a few days besides reading the new entries.

Got up to 79 yesterday, expected to hang around in the 80's for a couple of days before the cool down at the beginning of November...59 and sunny for the weekend. Beautiful.
Oh it will be on land by then oh that's a waste of gas

Well it never stopped the NHC and AFR 53rd Recon for our first Invest this year
Quoting 754. win1gamegiantsplease:



I may be wrong but I think they still had the yellow x with 10% just last night.

They did. I was surprised they put that out after that ASCAT.


luv~ 10% is more than some others had given it.


I updated my blog. Hanna looks to be hitting in the area where 24 died last week from flooding. The area it's expected to come in, near the border of Honduras & Nicaragua was already having food drops done as flooding last week had devastated & cut it off.
the problem with many this weekend...was not the chance or lack thereof of 94l to form...many stated that with it's location that it was worthy of watching...but the constant misinformation such as..... it was not intwined at the time with the cold front.......... that was given out
Gotta give WKC love for his persistence with Hanna. Now if it would just turn more north he would be totally correct.
It probably should have been declared Sunday. I'm not so sure we're going to see it dissipate quickly either. Any kind of northward jog and she's back over water. No reason to stop watching now.

Quoting 758. RickWPB:

Now why do they declare it a storm? It's going to be so short lived! It's like they're trying to trump up the low numbers some.


Quoting 755. yankees440:



And I am pretty such their forecast track for Hanna is off. i just can't see it moving SSE when the steering currents are to the West and WNW.

I am extremely curious as to their forecast track reasoning


I see this thing going right across Honduras and dissipating. Seems to be more models that agree with us and WKC than the NHC and the GFS run. Unless the high over Florida is expected to be stronger I think Hanna will be headed more west than south or sure.
weather forecasting is NOT a competition ... but ego's can sure make it seem like fantasy football ... chuckles
Quoting 768. Skyepony:

They did. I was surprised they put that out after that ASCAT.


luv~ 10% is more than some others had given it.


I agree. The 8:00 am TWO that gave 10% odds was written with that information available. The special TWO was issued at 8:35 am. I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the Hurricane Center. The arriving day crew had to have given some grief to those on the graveyard shift.
I haven't said much in the last few days, but I have been reading a lot. Hanna was not a shock to me and I think the NHC knew it too but just didn't want to be bothered by a small non-US impacting low. IMO, this had a better structure than Bonnie(2010) for longer. There are times I wonder how strictly they adhere to their tropical cyclone criteria.

At times this week I wanted to chime in with an opinion but Hanna has been a strange one. The more I observe the last few hurricane seasons, the more I realize how much we don't know.

Officially my 10-3-1 numbers have been shot, but I'm happy for that. Hoping for at least 2 more storms before the season is out (at least I could get the 10 right). While 2014 is at it, please send a storm my way and don't let Cariboy have all the fun. :-)
776. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 35 sHace 36 segundos State College, PA
Dont disagree with upgrade to Hanna, but how did this go from10% chance to storm without someone noticing it was darn well organized 1st?


nice looking tropical storm
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

Deep convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine have persisted and become better organized since yesterday.
In addition, ASCAT data from overnight indicate that the system was
producing 30-35 kt winds to the west of the center, just off of the
coast of Nicaragua. Therefore, advisories have been re-initiated,
with the system being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna.

The center of Hanna is very close to the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua. The system is moving west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt,
and should be inland over Nicaragua by this afternoon. A similar
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
cyclone dissipating by late Tuesday.

The main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall.
Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and
northern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding
and mud slides.

Since Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this
forecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to
expedite the release of forecast information. An intermediate
advisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at
5 PM EDT, as scheduled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Quoting RickWPB:
Now why do they declare it a storm? It's going to be so short lived! It's like they're trying to trump up the low numbers some.



... trump up the low numbers they predicted? That makes zero sense.
From StormW
"Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, and current satellite motion, I feel the initial motion is to the west. Based on forecast steering however, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track. Initial analysis of the forecast steering may have suggested a tug toward the north, for a WNW motion in about 18 hours. However close examination did show that where the center is located, the ridge should provide blocking toward the north, with the storm heading for a weakness to its SW."

That answers the NHC's forecast movement to the WSW.
I tmay be a small non-us impacting low as you put it but it could be a major rain event for Nicaragua and parts of Honduras. Just because its not impacting the US does not mean its not relevant.
Quoting 775. LemieT:

I haven't said much in the last few days, but I have been reading a lot. Hanna was not a shock to me and I think the NHC knew it too but just didn't want to be bothered by a small non-US impacting low. IMO, this had a better structure than Bonnie(2010) for longer. There are times I wonder how strictly they adhere to their tropical cyclone criteria.

At times this week I wanted to chime in with an opinion but Hanna has been a strange one. The more I observe the last few hurricane seasons, the more I realize how much we don't know.

Officially my 10-3-1 numbers have been shot, but I'm happy for that. Hoping for at least 2 more storms before the season is out (at least I could get the 10 right). While 2014 is at it, please send a storm my way and don't let Cariboy have all the fun. :-)
Quoting 736. Skyepony:

Make sure lots of crow gets added to the buffet this morning..

Hanna


I'm not surprised at all the way it was pulling together through the day yesterday, especially on ASCAT.
I get to skip the crow dish on this..I said last week 94 would develop.
Looking on Hanna floater it certainly looks to be moving W-WNW
Quoting CybrTeddy:


... trump up the low numbers they predicted? That makes zero sense.


Yeah, I think the NHC would have preferred not to name the system especially since they gave it such a low probability of developing.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


I see this thing going right across Honduras and dissipating. Seems to be more models that agree with us and WKC than the NHC and the GFS run. Unless the high over Florida is expected to be stronger I think Hanna will be headed more west than south or sure.


The High in the NE GOM is dissipating and moving E out of the GOM

786. SLU
Quoting 775. LemieT:

I haven't said much in the last few days, but I have been reading a lot. Hanna was not a shock to me and I think the NHC knew it too but just didn't want to be bothered by a small non-US impacting low. IMO, this had a better structure than Bonnie(2010) for longer. There are times I wonder how strictly they adhere to their tropical cyclone criteria.

At times this week I wanted to chime in with an opinion but Hanna has been a strange one. The more I observe the last few hurricane seasons, the more I realize how much we don't know.

Officially my 10-3-1 numbers have been shot, but I'm happy for that. Hoping for at least 2 more storms before the season is out (at least I could get the 10 right). While 2014 is at it, please send a storm my way and don't let Cariboy have all the fun. :-)


Yes they are the experts but Hanna proves that they can be very wrong at times and there may be some justification for bloggers like myself who sometimes criticize the NHC on their decision making at times.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm new to this blog and came here last week when Invest 94L was starting. My reason for joining was a tad selfish, as I am heading to Aruba on November 1sr, this coming Saturday morning, and I've been worried about storms that might pop up and affect either my starting point or my destination. It appears that Hannah us certainly not going to be an issue for Aruba, but what about the tropical waves in the eastern caribbean? Do you think they will impact travel out of Logan Airport in Boston, to Aruba on November 1st, or the travel route from Boston to Aruba?
Quoting 697. MAweatherboy1:


I'm not entirely sure what you mean by that... obviously as usual you're trying to take a shot at me because that's just what you do... but I don't get it. It wasn't supposed to develop. To be truthful, I hadn't been thinking about it for the past couple days, I don't think I posted on the blog at all this weekend. Was at the 15th annual Southern New England Weather Conference all day Saturday (a great conference) and busy getting caught up on other stuff yesterday. But in my few visits to the NHC site it never appeared they were expecting development.
Just ignore that person.After when I looked at ex T.D 9 yesterday I gave it a small chance of maybe a T.D before crashing into the coast.Looks like it has become a minimal T.S instead.The most important threat is heavy rain and flooding.This reminds me of T.D 16 from 2008.
the lil storm that never gave up................................................ .................