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Delta almost done; is hurricane season over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on November 27, 2005

Tropical Storm Delta continues churning over the far eastern Atlantic, and still has a day of life left in it before cold waters and high wind shear tear it apart and transform it into a powerful extratropical storm on Monday. Delta will probably bring heavy rains and winds gusts to 40 mph to the Canary Islands on Monday and Morocco on Tuesday. Delta is following a track no November tropical storm has ever taken--a check of the Historical Map shows that there has never been a November tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic. Yet another first for the Hurricane Season of 2005!

If Delta dies tomorrow, as expected, will tomorrow then mark the final day of the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005? I'll have a full analysis of the possibilities on Monday, including a discussion of the historical occurrences of hurricanes after December 1.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hopefully Delta Dawn is it. May the 2005 hurricane season FINALLY be over with! T-minus 87 hours, 9 minutes til it ends!!!!!
Thanks Dr. M. Why should Delta have been any different?! lol Season 2005 will live in infamy.
Glad you had a good vacation, and sorry you are in miserable temps now. Need to relocate to FL, much warmer and definitely more exciting!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Funny link to the diagram you showed there. If this is truely the final hurricane/named storm of the season, then thanks for all the updates and great information you provide about these system. We've all learned a lot this year. This season can be related to school or sports. We've all worked really hard this hurricane season, and the harder you work the more you learn. Hopefully all hurricane seasons for a long time to come will seem like diddly squat compared to this beheamuth.
hmmm what are the ch that we will make it to the Z storm any one but we made it to the D storm
Hi all, will someone tell me if this line of storms approaching the western Gulf Coast of Florida are going to be storms we need to worry about? They look pretty nasty on radar. Also would someone share if they have knowledge what the weather in Western North Carolina will be this weekend.
Thanks :)
he going to make us wait in tell DEC 1st i woud like to see what he got now if yo all no what i mean

like did the K storm made land fall has a cat 5 frist time in a long time and i think the last one was the A storm back in 1992

and like the i like to see if that made land fall has a low cat 4 and not a cat 3 so i would like to see the update on that one

and the W storm i like to see if that made land fall has a cat 4 or this may be a low end of a cat 5

i hop no one kill me for this but i this would like to see what DR M got from this year do not make us wait DR M i would like to see what he got from this 2005 hurricane year
I take exception with your statements like "...there has never been a November tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic." Could you at least say, "Since we have been observing tropical storms in the far eastern Atlantic..." ?

What does that amount to, a few decades at best? Certainly 'never' is an overstatement.

Never is a mighty long time and this has been an active season both in hurricanes and silly statements from people we used to trust. I am reminded of Chicken Litte.
With such a wild hurricane season I wouldnt be suprised if something flares up in the Caribbean in December. Next year I am hopeing for above average storms in the Eastern Pacific and below average hurricanes in the Alantic. When there are above average storms in the Eastern Pacific then the monsoon season is good out here in the Southwest and where I live once in a while a thunderstorm will role off the San Gabriel Mountains and into the vallie and that feals good.
Serac, there has been some organized tracking of Atlantic storms for well over a century. And even if there have been some unobserved storms, what harm is done? Chicken Little doesn't apply here, since I don't think anyone is going "OMG THERES A STORM IN THE EAST ATLANTIC WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!1111".
10. dcw
Weird track!



Wow, thats BIZZARE. Five, almost six, landfalls? OO.OO
hey serac, thanks for correcting the minor misstatement in Dr. Jeff's post, but I don't see the need for putting a negative spin on it
Hey All,
I'm counting down the days until 11/30. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
I agree Snowboy. I think we all know what Dr. Masters meant.
NOLA I';m not sure it makes too much sense to countdown the days to the 30th, since later hurricanes are possible (if unlikely). I am relieved though that the wild 2005 season seems to be concluding quietly.
15. dcw
Epsilon is on the horizon...even the NHC is mentioning it, 4 days out! Since when do they do that? My advisory for the day:

Tropical Storm Delta
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 5 - 1:00PM EST November 27, 2005

Well, let me just say I am glad to have stressed my lack of skill with such systems in the previous advisory. Delta strengthened a bit this morning, when shear appeared to relax, but quickly weakened in the past few hours, and, though very convective, is only barely hanging on to tropical storm status in the face of high southwesterly shear. The shear is only expected to increase as the storm accelerates rapidly east-northeastward...and Delta will become extratropical within 36 hours or so. The initial intensity is 35kt.

The track forecast calls for Delta to rapidly move eastward over the next day or so, before becoming extratropical. The remnants of the storm are likely to bring gusty winds and rain to the Canary Islands in about 36 hours.

The intensity forecast calls for Delta to remain a minimal tropical storm until extratropical transition in light of the large amount of convection around the storm.

Initial: 28.5N 29.5W 35kt
12 Hour: 29.0N 24.5W 35kt
24 Hour: 29.0N 19.0W 35kt...becoming extratropical
36 Hour: 28.5N 11.0W 35kt...extratropical
48 Hour: ...Absorbed by front
this is from Katrina estimates of the reconstruction cost are at least $200 billion. and keep going up

and now her is Hurricane Andrew 26.5 billion

I was right about Delta. It restrengthened and might strike teh Canaries, Portugal, and Spain as a trop storm/disturbance or a strong extra-trop.

Would the people who said there was "no chance" of this a few days ago like another helping of crow?
it wont hit the spain more south africa
Hey MarkD, maybe a minor post-Thanksgiving helping of crow for some people but not a big one. Delta had sustained winds as high as 70 mph (and flirted with hurricane status), then gradually decreased to 40 mph as it got worn down by the shear. It has now strengthened slightly to 50 mph (and I agree some were saying it would just be torn apart by shear and die, so they can nibble on some crow), but it is not a big deal.

The Canary Islands are predicted to have gale force winds from the remains of Delta. We've had gale force winds here 4 times in the last 3 weeks, and I;'m sure the Canary's see them not infrequently.
dcw - thanks for the advisory, but where is NHC mentioning Epsilon (4 days out)?
seracfilms,
Did someone wake up on the wrong side of the bed today? Whats up your butt? You could remind us of what you were saying in a much nicer tone. Run along and make one of your nature films now.
I'm counting down the days until December 31. After that, the 2005 hurricane season is DEFINITELY over ... and the 2006 season can begin. Anyone for a January hurricane?

The future Epsilon is looking good in the Atlantic. Looks like it may extend the 2005 season some (already enough of a record breaker).

After Epsilon, only 19 more names left until we need to use a different alphabet! May I suggest the Hebrew alphabet? Aleph, beth, gimel, ... got 22 names in that puppy...
Don't be so sure jorick - it depends on whether you go by calandar year number or "closest to x season". If you go by the second way, the 2005 "domain" doesn't end until February 28, 2006.
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005

...DELTA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND
COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY.

this is almost insane. thought the nhc were joking when i saw that. what more can 2005 offer us? ITS UNDER 40KTS OF SHEAR FOR GOD'S SAKE. WEAKEN!!!!!!!!!
really weird weather here in kansas city, mo

tornadoes today, changing to snow tonight into tomorrow morning

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 305 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 35 by 4pm. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 26. West northwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

brrrrr. hopefully we have a roof on our house to keep the snow and cold out tomorrow, lol. this is so weird...
28. Inyo
I second what lightning10 says. Unless this is the 1 year in 100 that a tropical storm of some sort hits southern California... active Eastern Pacific storm seasons rarely cause much in the way of destruction like we saw this year. Definitely Baja is at risk but with its lower population the levels of destruction are a bit lower. Plus like you said... a good strong monsoon is welcome. I now work in the San Gabriel Mountains and i'd love to see a few good storms next year.. as long as i am off the ridgetops when they roll in. This summer they were mostly combined to the San Bernadinos.. although i was in one pretty crazy severe thunderstorm in October.
Not tropical, but a big mid-latitude cyclone headed for the W Coast, presently N of Hawaii. Look at the wind field.
I am looking forward for Hurricane Delta (currently a TS still at 70 mph) to make land fall at the east of the mediterranean on the Egyptian Coast as the first ever documented tropical (or sub tropical) system to make landfall here. It will pass through 18C water in the west mediterranean then 22-23 as it approaches eastwards.

However this is the current jetstream map over North Africa and mediterranean basin AFRICA JETSTREAM
So does that mean shearing the system??
Snowboy
Not sure where you are. We get gale force winds 1st or twice a week now thru march. Not comparing it to hurricane force winds. Seen gusts to 90 twice here in my lifetime that I was old enough to remember. Gale force is a part of life. Was on my boat a couple of times. Headed home of course.
Interesting, snowfire and lobcarl.

Small craft warnings up for entire OR and WA Pacific Coast and Gale warnings for No. Calif coast.

Seattle and Portland NWS forecasters are trying to reconcile NAM and GFS scenarios, esp re the level of snow vs. rain. Discussions do not mention inland wind except Columbia River Gorge. Apparently NAM has a low tracking into OR coast, then ENE. GFS more north, near WA/BC border (Right where I am!) Jet stream goes through NoCal, more southerly than it had been. Sacramento NWS apparently offline at the moment.

So, as usual with the weather, who knows where this "pineapple express" will go?
10 counties in Arkansas under tornado warnings.
Wow, torn. Is Oklahoma OK? (no pun intended)

Cairo, are your weather people forecasting TS Delta to get into the Mediterranean? You might want to direct your wind shear question to Hurricanechaser's blog.
Right now, it is.
is there a hurricane coming my way for ca if so how high will the winds get in ca
Overview of the 2005 hurricane season:

The 2005 season began early with Tropical Storm Arlene forming on June 9th from a tropical depression in the southwest Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Bret also formed in June making it only the 13th time since 1851 that 2 tropical storms are known to have formed in June.

A record active July followed, wherein 5 named storms (Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin and Gert) formed. The previous record for the number of named storms in July was four. Of the 5 named storms, 2 major hurrianes formed tying a record set in 1916. The seven named storms that had formed up until the end of July represented a record level of activity for the first two months of the season.

A further five named storms formed in August of which two were hurricanes bringing the seasonal total to 12 named storms and 4 hurricanes - well above the long term average as of August 31st, which is 4.4 storms and 2.1 hurricanes. August also saw the development of Hurricane Katrina, which will likely be one of the most costly and destructive storms in US history. At one stage a category 5 hurricane, Katrina ultimately made landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi at category 4 strength. While loss of life will not approach the magnitude of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (6000-12000 deaths), it nonetheless caused approximately 1,000 deaths and will likely cost more than 100 billion dollars - by far the highest cost of any hurricane in history.

In September, five hurricanes formed leading to a seasonal total nearly double the June-September average number of named storms. In only one other year (1933) had this many storms (17) formed by the end of September. The 2005 season eventually surpassed 1933 for the number of named tropical cyclones. The second category five hurricane of the season developed in September - Hurricane Rita. Impacting the Florida Keys and eventually the Texas/Louisiana border, it prompted massive evacuations along the Gulf Coast and caused widespread damage in parts of Southwest Louisiana, just weeks after Katrina impacted the state. Hurricane Ophelia also impacted the US as it raked the North Carolina coast leading to 10-12 inches of rain for coastal areas as well as significant coastal erosion.

October produced some unusual tropical activity and the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Six named storms formed during the month leading to an extension of the naming system to include the Greek alphabet. Hurricane Wilma entered the record books in October as having the lowest central pressure of any Atlantic hurricane at 882 mb, beating Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 with 888 mb. At one stage a category 5 storm, Wilma produced well over 60 inches of rain as it moved across the Yucatan Peninsula, then turned northeastward and eventually made landfall in Florida as a category 3 storm. Hurricane Vince was unusual in its track and location. Vince became a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic and tracked northeastward, passing northwest of the Madeira Islands. Weakening, it eventually made landfall in Spain as a tropical depression. It is the first known instance of a tropical cyclone making landfall in Spain. Tammy impacted northeast Florida as a tropical storm and Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Beta also formed in October. For the first time since the naming convention was instituted, the Greek alphabet had to be employed as the 22nd named storm of the season developed. Alpha produced heavy rains across portions of Hispaniola, while Beta became a major (category 3) hurricane as it neared the coast of Nicaragua, eventually making landfall at category 2.

So far in November it has been active with two named storms Tropical Storm Gamma and Tropical Storm Delta. These two storms have added to the record setting season of 2005 with 25 named storms. This total by far exceeds the record of 21 named storms set in 1933. It also extends the use of the Greek alphabet to the fourth letter well beyond the designated regular alaphabet. Tropical Storm Gamma formed in the Caribbean and moved across and impacted northern Honduras and Belize with flooding rains before being sheared by strong westerly winds. Tropical Storm Delta formed well out in the central Atlantic with only impacts for shipping interests.


i am so sorry for the long post but i think some of you would like to see this so sorry for the long post
opps sorry i will try not to do that no more
did they update the winds at the time of land fall to 150mph whit the k storm the R storm and the W storm?
Wow that squal line is impressive in norther texas into arkansas. Getting bigger as we speak. That system as a whole loooks very ominous. Nice rotation as well.

BB73
Trouper, where can I see the storm?

Zeta, not a hurricane but an ugly low pressure system headed to west coast, ? to Northern Cal, OR or WA.

Thanks torn, about OK. Had to watch the end of Seahawks game. Great game!
no KRWZ, the intensities at landfall stand like this:

Katrina - 80 (SEFL), 140 (SELA), 125 (MS)
Rita - 120 (WLA)
Wilma - 145 (MX), 140 (MX), 125 (SWFL)
Hey storm drain, heres the link to the storm moving across the midwest. It'll expire in 20 mins or so. If you cannot see it, just go to weather.com and type in the search box of cities: Little Rock and you'll see it hehe.

BB73
folks that is a really nasty looking squall line from Texas through Arkansas and Missouri - if you live to the east please keep a close eye on this tonight
Tornado watch for 30 counties in Arkansas. I reckon that be all of them eh?
ok all her is the updat

it look like Dennis get updat to a cat 4 at land fall from a cat 3 7/5/05 7/11/05 Cat 4 130 160

Katrina get update to 150mph winds at landfall that is a high cat 4 hurricane for the low cat 4 hurricane 8/23/05 8/31/05 Cat 5 150 185

then we have Rita gets updat to 150mph winds at land fall from a low cat 3 hurricane and i new that was not a 120mph hurricane at landfall so that is update to a high cat 4 hurricane 9/18/05 9/26/05 Cat 5 150 185

and one more Wilma get update has well to 150mph winds at landfall from a high cat 3 with winds up to 125mph to a high cat 4 with winds of 150mph at land fall 10/15/05 10/25/05 Cat 5 150 185

Link
KRWZ

nothing has been updated. they wont do that until the final report in december by the nhc and i doubt whether they will upgrade any of those storms, they may even downgrade all four of them based on wind reports in landfalling areas. besides, i wouldnt trust that chart because the nhc has totally different info and has the final say, so look at their reviews rather than that one.
oh rate why are they makeing us wait in tell dec i would like to see what they got now lol if you all no what i mean
I agree with supercell216. Looking at dammage that all the hurricanes that made landfall this year in the US I beleave that there status will say the same or be downgraded. Thow the people who where affected probally dont care any way it goes.
Thanks Trouper, I found Little Rock and Springfield radars on WU.

HI supercell and zeta, lightning.
sonora ca will get some snow tonight and right now we are at 42 and going down and may be 1-3inc of snow be for it go back to rain
Supercell, you ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY CANNOT say that all four are going to be downgraded because of wind reports because almost all anemometers in the eyewalls of intense hurricanes fail.
and did i far get to say that some parts of the valley will get some snow too
lightning

thats not what i said. its actually quite the opposite. maybe you misunderstood or i made it unclear:

the four major hurricanes that made landfall in the u.s this year did damage that was far beyond their respective intensities at landfall (apart maybe from dennis). katrina produced the most catastrophic wind and surge damage ever seen in the u.s. (far worse than its 140mph cat 4 status suggests). rita caused similar destruction just in a smaller area with less population density (and far worse than its cat 3 120 mph status). wilma will likely be the 2nd costliest hurricane in u.s history behind katrina, and was only a 125mph cat 3 storm. the point i was trying to make was that even though the damage from this year's storms was unprecedented, the actual recording stations never recorded any winds from any of the 4 storms at the category they were rated. dennis was a cat 3, and only one wind was measured at cat 3. katrina was a cat 4 and the highest wind reported was 119mph. rita never made it past cat 2 officially, and none of the stations in florida recorded anything higher than 108mph with wilma. the nhc like to change the landfall intensities only based on the wind reports they received, when i believe that is totally wrong. the damage caused by this year's storms warrant much higher status than they have now. unfortunately, because most of the reporting stations are destroyed in a major hurricane near the point of landfall, we will never know the true highest wind reported in any major hurricane. equally unfortunate is the fact that the nhc will continue to change their landfall intenisties at the end of the season despite it.
calm down torn i just stated this in my previous post. i even said i disagree with the downgrade of most of these major hurricanes because of this. please calm down i dont want to see another argument here.
Ya I am sorry I misunderstood that. I see your saying. Well anyways I hope I dont see another hurricane season like that again.
do not get your hop up on that one but we will this have to see what will 2006 will have for all of us but in any way i hop you are right


could the K storm be the frist cat 5 hurricane to make land fall in a long time that if they do up date that to a cat 5 at land fall?
KRWZ

if katrina is upgraded to a cat 5, then it will be the first cat 5 hurricane to make landfall in the atlantic basin since hurricane gilbert in 1988, and the first to make landfall in the u.s since hurricane andrew in 1992
I thought Hurricane Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 not to long ago. Might be wrong.
Hey supercell,

I only have a moment to post a quick comment which I thought you might be interested in since you were discussing all the various official peak winds recorded this year from the four different major hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S.

Wilmas peak wind officially recorded is 102 knots or 117 mph.

Katrinas highest recorded wind was at Popularville, MS. at 117 knots or 134.5 mph.

Dennis highest recorded was 121 mph at Navarre Beach, Fl.

Ritas highest recorded I am not sure of yet because thats the only major storm I didn't intercept this season so I haven't been tracking the official reports like I have on the other three.

Heres the link for Wilmas max winds, etc. for the Miami warning area that covers all of South Florida including Naples, Palm Beach, and the Florida Keys.

Link
lightning

andrew was upgraded in 2002 to 165mph at landfall

chaser

thank you. wasnt sure about some of the official reports so thx
Lightning,

Andrew was upgraded to 165 mph category five in the Summer of 2002 to coincide with the 10 year anniversary of its landfall.

Hey Supercell,

I totally understood what you meant when you said Andrew was the last category five to makeland in the U.S. in 1992 and you were totally correct.:) You also said Gilbert was last category five to make landfall in Atlantic Basin. However, the U.S. landfall is considered the Atlantic Basin as well so Andrew would still be the last category five landfall in the Atlantic Basin.

Supercell,

Sorry guys it takes me awhile to type..lol..

let me get you all the post storm report links.

YOu seem to follow them closely as well and I think you will also find them interesting as I do.

yw Supercell.
Here are my thoughts on those and other storms at landfall:

Dennis - recorded at 120 mph - my guess on actual is 120 mph (unchanged)
Katrina (FL landfall) - recorded at 80 mph - my guess on actual is 100 mph (significant upgrade to Category 2)
Katrina (LA landfall) - recorded at 145 mph - my guess on actual is 150 mph (slight upgrade)
Katrina (MS landfall) - recorded at 125 mph - my guess on actual is 140 mph (significant upgrade)
Rita - recorded at 120 mph - my guess on actual is 140 mph (up to Category 4)
Wilma (Mexico landfall) - recorded at 140 mph - my guess on actual is 160 mph (up to Category 5!)
Wilma (FL landfall) - recorded at 125 mph - my guess on actual is 125 mph (unchanged - remember, they were poorly prepared and it hit a large population area)

Peak intensity estimated (recorded/my guess on actual):
Arlene: 70/70
Bret: 40/40
Cindy: 70/75 (upgraded to a hurricane)
Dennis: 150/150
Emily: 155/160 (upgraded to Category 5)
Franklin: 70/70
Gert: 45/45
Harvey: 65/65
Irene: 100/100
Jose: 50/60
Katrina: 175/175
Lee: 40/40
Maria: 115/115
Nate: 80/80
Ophelia: 90/100 (upgraded to Category 2)
Philippe: 75/75
Rita: 175/175
Stan: 80/85
Tammy: 50/50
Vince: 75/80
Wilma: 175/185
Alpha: 50/50
Beta: 115/115
Gamma: 45/45
Delta: ??/??
Supercell,

heres the link to New Orleans NWS report on Katrina that covers all of New Orleans naturally al all of Mississippi Coastline and about 50 miles or so inland.

Link
Hey Supercell and everyone in here,

check out these powerful
winds well inland in Mississippi in Forrest and Jones county at or above 114 mph before instrument failure at each location.

Jackson, MS. post storm report.



Link
yeah sry about that chaser i meant to say that gilbert was the last to make landfall outside the u.s.
Land wind estimates are not good measurements as most of the wind gauges failed before they caught the peak winds. I was using a combination of the central pressure and damage effects to make my estimates.

Still, I don't think Katrina was a Category 5 at landfall as it was slowly weakening on the approach (but still a monster). However, I think it was a 150 mph, possibly 155 mph, storm at landfall.
hurricanechaser hi did you get my e mail let me no and do you like to come to my blog?
Heres the best Rita post storm report which covers Lake Charles NWS warning area...including Pt. Arthur and Sabine Pass Tx. areas as well.

Link
yeah crazyc83 thats why i dont like the nhc too much when they look at reported official winds. you are correct about katrina being worse than the current landfall estimate, however, i think that even though the general trend was on the decrease in the 6-8hrs before 1st landfall, it started to rapidly intensify in the last 2 hrs because it got rid of some of the dry air and had completed an eyewall replacement cycle. so even though 150-155 is a great estimate, i think it actually could have been a minimal cat 5 based on the last 2 hrs

if you want to check out these loops then maybe you can see what i mean
thanks chaser
Heres the post storm report for Dennis from the Mobile/Pensacola NWS that covers all of those areas that were most impacted by this category three.

Link
75. dcw
Take this, Africa!

Delta expected to make landfall with 40mph winds...in Morocco. What a season...ROFL
I Hope those are Right
Not to metion that would add a TON of Records there
Seriously!!!!!
hurricanechaser hi did you get my e mail let me no
I have all these saved to my favorites so I can track them so I wanted you to have them as well...

You are very welcome, Supercell.

I hope you, Lightning, David,CrazyC, Tony (tornado), and all the others on here have a great night and a good week ahead.

I have to say I am impressed by the knowledge you all have, keep sharing it with the others.:)

I am very concerned about a downgrade of Katrina because I wrote Chris Landsea and He said that Richard Knabb at the NHC was hoping to complete the analysis within a few weeks.
Any News on TD 29 or Epsilon
sorry David,

I wasn't trying to ignore, simply type to slowly...lol

Yes I did get it and I will let you know what I have and when I can send it to you in about a couple of weeks. I have so much work to do trying to produce my hurricane documentaries from this amazing season. But I will gladly do it for you first chance I get.:)
Hey DCW and Snowman,

I hope you two are doing good as well.
i truly hope the nhc have some sense and refrain from downgrading katrina. its not fair on the hundreds of thousands of lives it impacted so horrifically to make it seem less powerful

btw snowman, i have another record for your list (at least i think it is a record): smallest eye diameter for cat 2 hurricane, 8nm (11pm 10/18)
For Wilma? cause that Probablly means Cat. 3 as well
Hey supercell,

your sentiments are right in line with my thoughts about a possible downgrade of Katrina to a category one at Mississippi landfall....heres the link to my archive with the blog I wrote about it..titled..."Katrina wasn't a category One at Landfall." dated October 13th if I remember correctly. if you wanna read my thoughts on it..:)

Link
yeah for wilma, but wilma skipped cat 3 on its intensificiation and had a 65nm eye when it regained cat 3 status in the gulf
sooooo
ok goodnight everyone..thanks for the interesting conversation.:)

But don't you think it has the Record for Cat. 3 since it did it for Cat.2 4 AND 5 though
CrazyC83, I was just about to mention the two biggest atrocities this year, Wilma only a cat. 4 in the Yucatan and Rita only a cat. 3 at LA landfall, but I am glad to see you already covered both. I completely agree with everything you typed. Emily was, undoubtably, a cat. 5 as per recon reports at her peak. Wilma was a cat. 5 or very clost to it at landfall in the Yucatan. But what steams me the most is Rita. IT WAS CONTRACTING IT CIRCULATION. ITS EYEWALL WAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT HAD A PRESSURE OF 930 MB, the, correct me if I'm wrong, lowest pressure for any cat. 3 hurricane sans Katrina at its second landfall (which I think was cat. 4 based on Jim Cantore's account of windows made to withstand 180 MPH winds busting in the Veteran's Home in which he was staying in Gulfport). The one gripe I have about the NHC this year is their underestimating the ferocity of these hurricanes.
wow
Yeah I know - 930mb is more typical of a storm at around 150 mph, not 120. I don't think that Rita was quite that high, but 140 is my estimate. Wilma was also underestimated in the Yucatan based on damage reports - Emily hit at exactly the same strength and wasn't as destructive (although the Florida landfall seems correct).

Anyway, you're wondering about Wilma at Cat 3? It did hit it probably just after the 11:00 advisory...and quickly went to Cat 4 afterward...although the 110 mph winds at that last advisory before the hyper-intensification was probably underestimated - it is harder to estimate in the darkness (it was probably more like 125 mph at the time).
One fatality from the tornadoes so far tonight:

Storm Reports
yeah snowman i guess lol

torn

I COULD NOT AGREE MORE. im glad im back on here because that is absolutely true.

here are my wishes for nhc in their report

1. upgrade emily to a category 5 hurricane in the caribbean
2. upgrade emily to a category 5 hurricane at first landfall in mexico
3. upgrade katrina to a category 5 160mph hurricane at 1st landfall in LA
4. upgrade katrina to a category 4 140mph hurricane at landfall in MS
5. upgrade rita to a category 4 135mph hurricane at landfall in LA (come on, find another storm at cat 3 120mph strength that had a pressure in the 930s)
6. upgrade wilma to a category 5 185mph hurricane at peak intensity in the caribbean, and revise the pressure record to 878mb (based on dvorak estimates when the recon had left the storm shortly after their 882mb reading)
7. upgrade wilma to category 5 160mph at landfall in cozumel
8. upgrade wilma to category 4 145mph at landfall on yucatan
9. upgrade wilma to category 4 135mph at landfall in florida
10. upgrade beta to category 3 115mph at landfall in nicaragua
11. upgrade delta to category 1 hurricane at peak intensity in the atlantic

just a small list......lol......but they are all justifiable i think
hey all sup
hey boldman
2 9 and 10 ARE YOU SURE!!! That Would be NUTS!!!! explain Those 3 Please
I'd be up for 8 HOURS Changeing my Records if those occured But It would be AMAZZING but ya explain 2 9 and 10
My view on those:

1 - YES
2 - No, Emily had weakened before hitting Yucatan
3 - Not sure about Cat 5, but I'd say 150-155
4 - YES
5 - YES, in fact I think it was 140-145
6 - YES
7 - YES
8 - YES, in fact I think it was 155 at mainland Mexico
9 - No, 954mb is quite high for 125 mph but wind damage seems correct for intensity
10 - No, it was weakening
11 - Not sure yet...
ok take ou 2 that is a mistake, i posted that one at the time but just recently discarded it because like you said it is nuts lol. sry about that one, shouldnt be there. i definitely stand by 9: wilma will likely pass charley and ivan for damage estimates in florida, and based on its strengthening trend in the 6hrs before landfall and the structure at landfall, and also the incredibly high winds before instrument failure in sw florida, i think it should be upgraded to cat 4. no.10 i put on there because i believe the satellite signature at landfall was more characteristic of a major hurricane rather than cat 2.
lol snowman
If Ivan took Wilma's path, the damage would exceed what Wilma did. Remember that Wilma was moving faster and affected far more people quicker than Ivan did (despite being 125 mph as opposed to Ivan's 135 mph).

Charley was much smaller so if it was on Wilma's path, damage might be less as the immediate landfall area was lightly populated.
Here's a question. If December 1st marks the end of the 2005 Hurricane season, will a storm forming afterwards be named "Epsilon" or will It take the first name of the 2006 season? Otherwise, at what point would the name list change- Jan. 1st or Jun. 1st 2006?
but a lot of the others are feeeeesable Which is Crazy I hope they do some of that
If it forms in December, it will be named Epsilon.

If it forms in January or after, it will be named Alberto (first name on 2006 list).
Jan. 1st I'd say although If you want to go in the Middle March 1st would be The Middle
yup
I think the names list changes at the end of the year.
tbone

the list officially changes on june 1st, but epsilon is the next name to be used up only until jan 1st 2006

crazyc83

ivan was 120mph at landfall. and i agree that if either ivan or charley had have taken wilma's path then the damage would be beyond belief. ivan because it was so large and was moving much slower, and charley was one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the u.s at 150mph, and so if it had have hit the populated areas of sefl like wilma it might have been more costly than katrina was
I seriously doubt that Charley in Miami would be worse than Katrina in New Orleans. I mean, can it get any worse than what we all saw on tv?
Doubt it
miami is much bigger than new orleans with a much higher population, plus look at that area of coastline. imagine a storm like charley, which according to the nhc was stronger at landfall than katrina was, crossing south florida like that. it would certainly rival what katrina did because its winds mixed down to the surface much better than katrina since it was rapidly intensifiying and had a very tight core
You're right on that one, but wouldn't the Katrina flood damage be worse than the Charley wind damage, especialy since Charley was moving so fast?
Charley was much, much smaller in size than Katrina, Ivan or Wilma though (hurricane force winds extended out only 30 miles from the eye)...
yeah the flood and storm surge damage from katrina can never be replicated anywhere in the world. we wont see damage like that ever again in our lifetimes. however, because charley's hurricane force winds only extended 30 miles from the center, isnt it shocking how powerful those winds must have been to be the 2nd most costliest natural disaster in u.s history (discounting katrina). it's damage exceeded hurricane ivan which was four times its size. thats why a track into southeast florida would have produced so much more devastation
Well CrazyC83 if it passes right through the middle of metropolitan Miami, it doesn't really matter how far out the winds extend.
Folks, a Charley across Florida did happen. Andrew. Result? Less than 1/4 of the damage amount of Katrina. Enough said. Good night.

p.s. I will be keeping a database of surveys from tonight's outbreak, as I did with the outbreak on 11/15. That will be on my blog starting whenever surveys begin to trickle in.
That's exactly what I think supercell.
but even though charley could have been so much more devastating with that track, the storm which would have produced 100-200 billion in damage if it had have passed thru that area has to be hurricane andrew.
Yeah have you guys thought about this storm in the midwest? It is going to be a long night for the middle of the country.
nite torn, even though andrew completely missed the populated areas of southeast fla lol.
yeah levi, looking nasty out there.
The people in eastern Kansas have had to deal with tornadoes this evening, now they are going to get snow! That's crazy!
lol welcome to 2005 kansas!!! the year of the inexplicable
Right on supercell!
well goodnite guys, nice talking with you all
and anyone who lives in the plains: take care tonight, some really dangerous weather out there
Goodnight, sleep tight, don't let tornadoes and snowflakes bite.

Farewell everyone.
129. dcw
Warning: another model guilty of FUI: Forecasting Under the Influcence

Morning everyone, just checking in before heading out. NHC has just issued last advisories for Delta. You have to respect that storm, which is holding its own in the face of 60 knots of shear - it will be making landfall in North Africa tomorrow. To be seen: if this is the last storm of the season, or if we get an Epsilon to pad the record books ...