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Deep freeze in the South continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on January 11, 2010

The Deep South shivered through a ridiculously frigid weekend, with low temperature records crumbling over much of Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. This morning, record lows for the date fell in Miami, West Palm Beach, Tampa, Fort Myers, Lakeland, Tallahassee, and St. Petersburg. The most extreme low temperature record this morning was set in Key West, where the mercury fell to 42°F at 5am--the second coldest temperature ever observed in Key West. This is just 1° warmer than the all-time coldest temperature observed in Key West--41° in January of 1981 and 1873. Widespread reports of sleet and snow flurries accompanied the cold blast across Central Florida on Saturday, the eighth snow event in Florida since 2000, according to Wikipedia. It remains to be seen how much damage the $9.3 billion Florida citrus industry will see because of the cold blast, which is the most severe in Florida since the December 1989 cold wave that devastated the citrus industry. Temperatures below the 28° that causes fruit damage affected some citrus-growing areas again this morning, for the third consecutive morning.


Figure 1. Ice encases citrus in Altoona, Florida. Image taken Sunday, January 10, 2010 by wunderphotographer CAVU.

Intense and long-lasting cold
In Texas, two airports tied all-time January low temperature records on Saturday morning--Hondo, who's 12°F tied the record set January 11, 1982, and Cotulla La Salle, which hit 16°F, tying the record set January 13, 1975. Most of Texas' airports set daily low temperature records on Saturday morning. Saturday's low in Waco of 8°F broke the previous record of 15° for the date, and was the first time Waco has been in the single digits since the -4°F reading on December 23, 1989. Not only has the South's cold been intense, it has been exceptionally long-lasting. Montgomery, Alabama has had a low temperature below 25° nine consecutive days, breaking the old mark of seven straight days set in January 2001. With the cold snap only grudgingly scheduled to release its grip on the South, Montgomery can expect to run their streak of sub-25° lows to at least eleven straight days this week. Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida now have their second longest streak of days with a minimum temperature below freezing, at nine and eight days, respectively. Pensacola may equal or top their record of eleven straight days (set in January 1940) later this week, but Mobile is unlikely to break their record of fifteen straight days (set in February 1940). Also of note is that Key West has seen five consecutive days with low temperatures below 50 degrees (January 7th - 11th). This is the second longest such streak recorded in Key West, one day short of the record six-day streak on December 1 - 6, 1876. Key West has a decent chance of tying that record on Tuesday morning, when the low should fall to 50 or below.

A nicer beach weekend in Antarctica than Central Florida
Saturday's high and low temperatures in Orlando and Daytona Beach, Florida were 40° and 30°F. Tampa's high and low were 42°F and 29°F. Under sunny skies and light winds less than 10 mph, Saturday's high and low temperature at San Martin Base, Antarctica were 44° and 34°F. Gray, cloudy skies with winds gusting to 16 - 21 mph greeted beach goers at the beaches near Daytona Beach and Tampa, so it was a much nicer day at the beach in the Antarctic Peninsula than in Central Florida on Saturday (the Florida Chamber of Commerce loves stats like that!) Nice beach weather in Antarctica continued through Sunday, with sunny San Martin, Antarctica (high 41°, low 35°) recording an average temperature warmer than most stations in Central Florida. In all fairness, it is summer in Antarctica, and the ocean temperatures in Florida were a bit warmer than in Antarctica.

A major pattern shift coming
As I noted in my previous post, a sharp kink in the jet stream and a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is responsible for this winter's cold blast over eastern North America and Europe. The ridge of high pressure that has been blocking the west-to-east motion of weather systems over the past ten days is weakening, though, and a major shift in the winter weather pattern is in store for the Northern Hemisphere by late this week. A more typical El Niño pattern will set up, with the jet stream diving southward over California, bringing a strong flow of moist, Pacific air to the West Coast. A strong low pressure system will also bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will slowly moderate across Europe and the Midwest and Eastern U.S. this week as the pattern gradually shifts, and more ordinary winter weather can be expected in these regions by next weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first eight days of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Midwest and Southern U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Jeff Masters
Breakfast for one
Breakfast for one
Taken in Wintergarden Florida. Enjoy Mark
South Florida Freeze
South Florida Freeze
This passes for icicles in south Florida.....
Gainesville Deep Freeze
Gainesville Deep Freeze
On the campus at the University of Florida's

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting RMM34667:


LOL but that was a different decade. Seems like a lifetime ago!


Dallas Ft Worth, TX was 57F today. You will be back to normal by Wednesday!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Have a great day, stay cool!

Work is fully air conditioned so staying cool will be no problem. Only wish here at home was.
Friday will be our first day to break the 70 degree mark this month! If the Sun can come out on Saturday, we'll be even warmer.

Quoting Jeff9641:
If there is a big arctic outbreak it will affect either the western US or Central US NOT the eastern US anytime soon.


What makes you say that?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Dallas Ft Worth, TX was 57F today. You will be back to normal by Wednesday!!


Texas..... Normal??
Is that even legal to have those two words in the same sentence?
420. AussieStorm 2:30 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Noughties bring driest decade on record to Melbourne


What are Noughties, Aussie?

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
420. AussieStorm 2:30 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Noughties bring driest decade on record to Melbourne


What are Noughties, Aussie?



a cooler way of saying 2000s. it's that decade we're in now, you know, the one between the ''tens'' and the ''nineties''.
HPC 4-5 day QPF forecast:

Quoting Bordonaro:


Dallas Ft Worth, TX was 57F today. You will be back to normal by Wednesday!!


thanks! The knowledge that "this too will pass" helps!
Quoting Orcasystems:


a cooler way of saying 2000s. it's that decade we're in now, you know, the one between the ''tens'' and the ''nineties''.

Ah, thank you, Orca. I just noticed Aussie said he had to go to work.

Does seem like the play on words, i.e., "Naughties"...was intentional. I had to shake my head and look twice.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
420. AussieStorm 2:30 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Noughties bring driest decade on record to Melbourne


What are Noughties, Aussie?



...as if you don't know what 'naughties' are...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Texas..... Normal??
Is that even legal to have those two words in the same sentence?


Orca, click you heels three times and say, "There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home"!

Quoting presslord:


...as if you don't know what 'naughties' are...

Portlight fundraisers? (Blink, blink...borrowed Orca's halo.)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Ah, thank you, Orca. I just noticed Aussie said he had to go to work.

Does seem like the play on words, i.e., "Naughties"...was intentional. I had to shake my head and look twice.


I know, you that is was something, ya' know, a lil' "naughty"!!

if it makes y'all feel better, I havent been above 25 for 12 straight days ha
503. He doesn't believe there will be another Arctic outbreak affecting Florida.

Models point at the first-half of Feb for the next Arctic Incursion! Eventually, it will seep into FL..
Quoting tornadodude:
if it makes y'all feel better, I havent been above 25 for 12 straight days ha


I would have drunk myself to death by now...
Quoting presslord:


I would have drunk myself to death by now...


the cold combined with ten inches of snow on the ground... I love winter, but a warm day would be grand
I luv Betty Boop!

Oops, we have flurries...local met just "promised" one more cold day, and then the pattern changes. He'd better be right...or I'll, I'll, well, I'll bust his chops in my Blog. (horrors)
mans' best friend - dog senses earthquake

I don't know how to post those fancy links that you can just click on play!

Quoting tornadodude:
if it makes y'all feel better, I havent been above 25 for 12 straight days ha


Unless you got a fake I.D., you haven't been above 19 for 3 days.

Question: Is the legal drinking age 21 in the whole country now, even for beer and wine?
HAH! Walmart is pulling the cadmium-laced children's jewelry off the shelves!
Must have been my blog (as if).
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Unless you got a fake I.D., you haven't been above 19 for 3 days.

Question: Is the legal drinking age 21 in the whole country now, even for beer and wine?


LOL! youre too funny!

and I have no idea about the drinking age
Quoting RMM34667:
mans' best friend - dog senses earthquake

I don't know how to post those fancy links that you can just click on play!


I don't know how yet, either, but that is cool.
Would be a good post for Ike's "Dog Blog."


well time to head to bed, I have a class at 7:30 tomorrow morning, :P but it is my only class of the day (:

have a goodnight everyone!
I can say without any doubt,from personal experience,that a Good Dog will go above and beyond his or her own self and do what they have to,especially in times of well,..complete hopelessness and calamity.

I'll be back after the coming weekend as were taking some time off to concentrate on the NOLA portlight thrift store start up,and a Vacation for my B-day.

Thanx for the support earlier tonight and never take troll bait...here,or in the actual Physical world.









Quoting tornadodude:


LOL! youre too funny!

and I have no idea about the drinking age

Just as well!

Your roads been blowing around lately? I don't remember the exact quote from that funny weather report you posted, but it was almost as good as the 50 percent under water running gag.

OOPS...g'night...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Tis a good thing you do, Pat, but dang, I was looking forward to some major razzing here on your birthday! Try to check your own blog on your big day if you have a minute. Have a good time and a nice mini-vacation, too...going anywhere special?

I wasn't on during troll-time, but his posts are gone and it looks like the troops rallied. Semper Fi!
516. presslord 4:01 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
if it makes y'all feel better, I havent been above 25 for 12 straight days ha


I would have drunk myself to death by now...
Action: Quote | Ignore User


last time i saw 50 was the end of november
My entry is closed for comments for awhile as I take a break, but feel free to razz me in Wu-mail, a lot do anyway..LOL

A community always rallies for good in times of distress,and "here" is a fine example of that.

Semper Fi...

Ooo-Rah..

Big Duke NOLA-7,

Out.

Quoting RMM34667:
mans' best friend - dog senses earthquake

I don't know how to post those fancy links that you can just click on play!



Wonder where the dog was headed though, he went different direction than all the people. The first guys reaction was priceless. Turned as soon as the dog flew past, 2 seconds later he's up and moving, gives a dramatic pause as the shaking starts, then is out like a flash.

p.s. youtube is easy to post - copy the embed then paste directly to the comment section - no link or image or anything
Quoting PcolaDan:


Wonder where the dog was headed though, he went different direction than all the people. The first guys reaction was priceless. Turned as soon as the dog flew past, 2 seconds later he's up and moving, gives a dramatic pause as the shaking starts, then is out like a flash.

p.s. youtube is easy to post - copy the embed then paste directly to the comment section - no link or image or anything


HA, you're right! TV wannabe, lol. Me -- I think I'd follow the dog.

Thanks for directions for posting youtube. It sounds easy...please stand by for the trouble reports I'll be sending to your WU mail when I give it a try!
Is there still a possibility of a large derecho type storm this weekend? I dont see as much talk of it right tonight?

Also, anyone in Florida hear anything on how the Snook population has faired this weekend? I hope well.

Capt. Scott Moore seemed worried.
Quoting BioChemist:
Is there still a possibility of a large derecho type storm this weekend? I dont see as much talk of it right tonight?

Also, anyone in Florida hear anything on how the Snook population has faired this weekend? I hope well.

Capt. Scott Moore seemed worried.


Quoting BioChemist:
Is there still a possibility of a large derecho type storm this weekend? I dont see as much talk of it right tonight?

Also, anyone in Florida hear anything on how the Snook population has faired this weekend? I hope well.

Capt. Scott Moore seemed worried.

I had no idea -- this ain't right!

Poachers Grabbing Cold-Stunned Fish From Waters
Posted: 6:06 pm EST January 11, 2010Updated: 6:54 pm EST January 11, 2010

I'm out...good night all.
Quoting BioChemist:
Is there still a possibility of a large derecho type storm this weekend? I dont see as much talk of it right tonight?

Also, anyone in Florida hear anything on how the Snook population has faired this weekend? I hope well.

Capt. Scott Moore seemed worried.


With all due respect we could have a few Tornadic Thunderstorms this weekend along the north Gulf coast and Central FL..... Could be as much as 6" + in some locations....

Taco :0)
Biochemist~ Isolated severe storms are possible, maybe something stronger but dewpoints in the 60s..kinda lack of instability & low level moisture.. not looking so likely for derecho or big severe outbreak.

The real memorable El Nino Fl severe weather events usually start in February.
The low shown there is 1003mb KOG.
Only midnight and its 22 degrees dew point at 16.
Quoting ElConando:
The low shown there is 1003mb KOG.
strong area of precip shown passing over tampa on that one 3 poss 4 inch totals that would be a lot of rain in a short time with a hard cold ground well you get the picture
thanks guys! last night some people were thinking it could mirror the 93 storm!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
strong area of precip shown passing over tampa on that one 3 poss 4 inch totals that would be a lot of rain in a short time with a hard cold ground well you get the picture


Yep I get you sir. Although I rained about .3 of a n inch thurs day last week it still would be fairly dry. Still a lot of time to see where this thing will land.
Anyone here? Taking a break from "fixing" a "professionals" report...you know, it takes about 10,000 hours to become and expert at anything, but in my line of work it holds especially true...
Sad day for turtles :-(
Over 1500 sea turtles have stranded in Brevard county from the cold.
In the panhandle of Florida on the Gulf south of Tallahassee approx 600 sea turtles...dead from the cold.
Quoting Willow13:
Sad day for turtles :-(
Over 1500 sea turtles have stranded in Brevard county from the cold.
In the panhandle of Florida on the Gulf south of Tallahassee approx 600 sea turtles...dead from the cold.


Nature's handiwork
I could be wrong, but gigantic icicles don't form unless there's a lot of moisture - so it was either raining before it dipped below freezing or a lot of idiots left their irrigation systems running.
Quoting BioChemist:
thanks guys! last night some people were thinking it could mirror the 93 storm!


This is not a superstorm set up. The atmospheric dynamics support heavy rain/strong gusty winds/some severe weather, no large scale outbreak. The atmosphere is just gonna get loaded with plenty of moisture. Anywhere from 2-6 inches + of rain is possible from S TX, S LA, S MS, into FL.
WOW does this this blow up.....its all the way in the Silver and Gray..that is 4+ OUCH!


Quoting bdkennedy1:
I could be wrong, but gigantic icicles don't form unless there's a lot of moisture - so it was either raining before it dipped below freezing or a lot of idiots left their irrigation systems running.


I doubt much of any of it was due to farmers ignorance. Frost and ice can form without rain falling.
Quoting TampaSpin:
WOW does this this blow up.....its all the way in the Silver and Gray..that is 4+ OUCH!




GFSx scenario brings a bucketload of water to the central and eastern panhandle.
Quoting Bordonaro:


This is not a superstorm set up. The atmospheric dynamics support heavy rain/strong gusty winds/some severe weather, no large scale outbreak. The atmosphere is just gonna get loaded with plenty of moisture. Anywhere from 2-6 inches + of rain is possible from S TX, S LA, S MS, into FL.


Not sure i agree with you....but, we will see....


Quoting TampaSpin:
WOW does this this blow up.....its all the way in the Silver and Gray..that is 4+ OUCH!




here is the latest closer detail run
Here is the Forecast Temps for 7am Thursday......i would say we could be looking at a very large snow event along the Northern parts of the GUlf Coast states.....North Alabama and Georgia could get a doosy....



Although the current forecsat for precip does not show a winter storm for the south...its too warm...

Global Model Link
Although this cold period is nearing its end. Its certainly leaving with a bang. A decent shot of reaching the upper teens at Tallahassee airport by sunrise. 21 degrees with 7 hours of clear sky and calm winds.
The cold shocks was only part one of the winter. Now comes part two. The El Nino storms. I am sure anyone who lived in Florida back in 1998 will remember.
Soon you will see severe storms on the west coast of Florida. Just like in 98 and 82.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
516. presslord 4:01 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
if it makes y'all feel better, I havent been above 25 for 12 straight days ha


I would have drunk myself to death by now...
Action: Quote | Ignore User


last time i saw 50 was the end of november
Keep what's 25?:)
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 1:54 AM CST on January 12, 2010
17 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 13 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

Quoting Patrap:


Only 2 Dixie's Left in da fridge..and there for my Tuesday Shrimp Po-boy from Guy's on Magazine,round Noon tomorrow.

They are 312 steps from the House here on Constance.

Maybe one day we can scarf together there.



A few years ago, it was fewer steps from my grandma's place on Cortez to Mandina's on Canal. I always went there first thing and got a whole loaf. Of course, they told the "tourist" (who no longer had his Nawlins accent) that it was very hard to eat a whole loaf. I told them to bring it on, and ate the whole thing every time ;)

Byron, of Dauphine St., Chalmette, and the Chef of East New Orleans, all of which Katrina wiped off the map.
Quoting Nimitz:


A few years ago, it was fewer steps from my grandma's place on Cortez to Mandina's on Canal. I always went there first thing and got a whole loaf. Of course, they told the "tourist" (who no longer had his Nawlins accent) that it was very hard to eat a whole loaf. I told them to bring it on, and ate the whole thing every time ;)

Byron, of Dauphine St., Chalmette, and the Chef of East New Orleans, all of which Katrina wiped off the map.
I hope your team wins the big game this year!Sorta help with what happened.:)

Morning all, Ok there comes a time when enough is enough. This is fl. ugh!!
562. IKE
30.7...my low this morning...so far.
morning Ike, Hey can i borrow those two lakes till it gets warmer. Please
564. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
morning Ike, Hey can i borrow those two lakes till it gets warmer. Please


LOL.
565. unf97
Good morning everyone.

Well, so far the low temperature this morning has been 23.6 degrees.

Current temp 24.5 degrees. This makes 11 out of 12 days of sub freezing low temps at my home North Jax location. This has been an unprecedented prolonged frigid cold event, the Great Freeze of 2010 is what the local mets are terming this event.

We will have possibly two more sub freezing nights. Definitely tonight as a shortwave is currently moving through the SEUS and swings though, bringing a quick reinforcement of cold air. Lows tonight again in the 20s, and near freezing interior areas on Thursday morning.

FINALLY, it appears the Great Freeze of 2010 will end as warm advection finally develops ahead of a developing Low pressure system which models prog to form off the SE TX coast. Then, we turn our attention to next big weather, as this system has the potential to be a huge rain maker along the Gulf Coast and SEUS for this weekend.

Gotta love the weather, from one extreme of bitter cold, to potential heavy rain extreme this weekend.

Have a great day everyone.
37-40f this beautiful morning anyone want to go surfing? water temp is about 55f e.cent florida
567. IKE
30.2 my morning low.

102 hour 6Z GFS.....

568. IKE
A necessity in this weather.....

Good Morning!!

Thankfully this is the last morning of these temps.
Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 8 sec ago
25 °F
Clear
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: Calm

570. IKE
New Orleans...

LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT FOR MANY DAYS NOW ON THE
LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS/MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INDUCING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCLUDING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY. THE
TRAJECTORY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LOW WOULD INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH ELEVATED STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRATIFORM RAIN PROCESS OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS AND ADVANCING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
60-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
CONVECTION UNDER COLD POOL MAY STILL IMPART BRIEF SPURTS OF HAIL
PRODUCTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME...JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR A POSSIBLE IMPACT.
AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIL BE HIGHLY MODIFIED PACIFIC
MARITIME/CONTINENTAL WITH NO WINTER WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS IN
DEFORMATION ZONE. A MILDER WEEK IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURE WISE
SUNDAY ONWARD. GULF REALLY OPENS UP BY MID NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
LARGE PACIFIC TYPE SYSTEM. A FEW NIGHTS OF FOG/DENSE FOG CONCERNS
MAY BE IN THE OFFING WITH STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.

571. IKE
Latest Rolling Stone cover...

The South has been enduring bitterly cold temperatures the past several mornings. Relief from the cold, but not the adverse weather, is on the way. A potent storm from the Gulf of Mexico threatens to unleash flooding rain across the South over the weekend.


Steady rain will develop across Texas Thursday night as the storm begins to take shape in the western Gulf of Mexico. The storm will inch northeastward on Friday, spreading its rain to the lower Mississippi Valley. Drenching rain will likely encompass the rest of the South on Saturday. Enough instability may also be present to ignite severe thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula, one week after snow and ice pellets made a rare appearance.


The storm has the potential to unleash 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude could lead to flash flooding, especially where rivers remain swollen following an extremely wet end to 2009.


Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski
My morning low was 32 getting warmer each day. Severe weather and flooding rain will occur on Saturday across Central Florida. 2 rounds of severe weather one with the warm front Friday night and the 2nd one later on Saturday.
574. IKE
My low was 29.8. Sun is shining brightly in the eastern sky. High in the 50's today.
Positive Wind Chill?
Do they round up the windchill? I am being picky but how does a temp of 31.4 (even with a wind of 0) have a windchill of 32?
Is it possibly sampled at a slower rate and fluctuating or does the software just round up?

Ya'll are makin me miss the big easy.
'morning all! :)

My blog is updated, and special for today is one of my famous limericks. The topic for the rhyme is "The Funniest Thing I Ever Saw."

I see there are places down south colder than my freezer temperature setting. LOL...there is still mountains of snow and ice here in the mountains. It will take a spring thaw to break it down, and that's still quite aways off.

Enjoy the day you've been given! Peace, out!

Oz---
Good Morning......The worst of the El Nino driven severe weather events for the Gulf Coast and Florida will probably come in Feb and March when the temperatures moderate a bit more going towards the Spring so I hope that this weekend's Gulf low will only bring rain and not tornados.......
Quoting Raysfan70:
Good Morning!!

Thankfully this is the last morning of these temps.
Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 8 sec ago
25 °F
Clear
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: Calm



our hifghs are getting a little better but the lows are the same! only 23 instead of 13. its still frikken cold! we are just getting used to it
Well I am canceling my vacation plans for tropical Park Heights its gotten to 42 down here I think we will do the flip flop sometime today. Signing of from arctic south Fl.
Good morning! Current temps below.
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
28.6 °F
Clear
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 30.34 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft

Let the warming begin!
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I am canceling my vacation plans for tropical Park Heights its gotten to 42 down here I think we will do the flip flop sometime today. Signing of from arctic south Fl.


Agreed... hopping on a plane to Cancun Wed morning :)

Now for a change of events... you guys can have your warm temps back..and take ours with you.... we need some cold up here so the mountains can regain some of the snow they lost this week. Olympic skiing is hard to do on bare rocks.
585. IKE
Here's some possible good news....

"Iraqi oil may rival Saudi Arabia
8:24am: The country aims to pump 11 million barrels a day in the next decade, possibly bringing down the price of oil. Major challenges lie ahead."

From CNN.
Here we go, SE TX:

Significant storm system to impact the area at the end of the week.

Old cold arctic high pressure moving off to the east this morning with weak onshore flow returning. Weak trough will be moving into SW TX today and Wednesday with moisture starting to return. Powerful upper level storm system will quickly follow into NW MX and then deepen over NE MX and SW TX on Thursday producing a threat of very heavy rains, strong winds, and coastal flooding along the TX coast.

Moisture return will begin in earnest Wednesday as southerly flow overruns the retreating cold dome at the surface. Isentropic processes begin to increase clouds and possibly light rainfall by Wednesday evening. Early Thursday the potent upper storm over MX begins to close off from the main flow while spreading strong forcing eastward over the TX coastal areas. At the surface an intense coastal surface low will develop off the lower TX coast under deep layer forcing and developing deep convection. GFS has trended weaker and more S and E with this feature over the past 24 hours however the ECMWF and CMC show the low much closer to the coast. At this point will split the difference on the tracks and show the system of 1002-1006mb tracking from near Padre Island to offshore of Matagorda Bay and then ENE toward offshore of Sabine Pass. Development of intense convection over the offshore waters may help to deepen this surface low even more as the GFS was showing yesterday (997mb). Very deep upper low pulls across on Saturday as coastal low moves on into LA. Expect extensive wrap around clouds and rainfall under strong cold air advection regime on the backside of the surface low. Critical thickness are not cold enough for anything frozen and will keep everything as a cold rain at this time.

Rainfall:

System looks very wet with moisture levels increasing to around 180% above mid Jan normals. This would normally raise red flags for a flooding threat as the magic % above normal is around 200%. PWS rising to near 1.2 inches by early Friday along with maximum lift from 600am to 600pm Friday point toward a very wet day across the southern ½ of the area. Feel bands of heavy rainfall will move SW to NE over the region on the north side of the coastal low as it passes offshore. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches look reasonable with isolated totals of 5 inches possible. Lack of significant rains in December as allowed grounds at least up top to dry some however given the time of year and lack of any vegetation there will be good run-off produced by this event. 3-hour flash flood guidance is around 3” along the coastal counties and closer to 4 inches over the inland counties while 6-hour guidance is around 3.5” over the coastal sections and 4.0 inches elsewhere. Current HPC QPF amounts do not exceed the shorter duration guidance, but I suspect given the amount of moisture and dynamics with this system several hours of .5-1.5 inches over a 24 hour period could run up some decent totals and result in some good run-off. Appears the event will be more of a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over a large area which tends to focus more issues toward the larger river basins than the smaller creeks and bayous. Too early to determine for sure the exact location of the heaviest rainfall and totals.

Coastal Flooding:

Fairly intense coastal low event for winter along the TX coast. Conditions will be similar to a tropical storm based on the GFS and ECMWF solutions this morning. Surface pressure falls into the low to middle 1000’s support very breezy conditions over the waters and along the coast. Looks good for sustained gale conditions in all of our coastal waters starting late Thursday and continuing into early Saturday with the possibly of border line storm conditions (55mph+) for the outer waters on Friday especially if the previous sub 1000mb GFS progs turn out to be correct. Strong E to ENE winds on the north side of the surface low will result in long fetch wind flow toward the coast, favorable Ekman transport, and building swells. Extra-tropical storm surge model run off the GFS with its track suggests water level rise of 1-2 feet along the beaches. Expect overall tides to run 2-3 feet above normal Thursday PM-Friday PM, and this could cause some issued on the very vulnerable Bolivar peninsula, west end of Galveston, upper Brazoria County, and the west sides of Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Coastal Flood Watch will likely be needed on Wednesday to cover this aspect.

Winds:

Breezy easterly winds will develop Thursday and increase into Friday and Saturday while over time backing to the NE and eventually the NW as the coastal low moves into and pass the region. Coastal winds will be sustained in the 25-30mph range with gust to 40mph while inland winds of 15-25mph with gust to 35mph will be likely especially on Friday.

As additional model runs become available changes to these impacts will be made. Track and intensity of the coastal surface low will result in changing impacts over the next 48 hours.

Hey Ike it sure would to think happy thoughts about oil but they will get us someway. starting to warm up here in Tampa
Good morning...
589. IKE
I'm up to 38.5. My heater cut off!
Sorry to show this but, this is the reason why I am not in bed.

Parramatta Forecast
This morning: 75°F
Today: 88°F
Possible thunderstorm
Now: 85.1°F falling
Updated at 01:30 EDT
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

I had 25F for a low yesterday, and 29F this morning...Global Warming my backside.

Good Morning
Come to Sydney and it will change your mind.
Currently 85.1F..... Relative Humidity: 58%
Is anyone aware of a single source reference that discusses in not to much detail ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act and interact. These weather patterns would include
- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the (new to me) North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks
594. IKE
Latest NAM run at 84 hours....

Quoting biff4ugo:
Positive Wind Chill?
Do they round up the windchill? I am being picky but how does a temp of 31.4 (even with a wind of 0) have a windchill of 32?
Is it possibly sampled at a slower rate and fluctuating or does the software just round up?

Ya'll are makin me miss the big easy.


Man, that has to be an input error somewhere...
Quoting toontown:
Is anyone aware of a single source reference that discusses in not to much detail ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act and interact. These weather patterns would include
- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the (new to me) North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks


ROFLMAO, Weather 101 Cliff notes.
Morning folks, by the way...it's a balmy 35.5 here in Fort Worth
I will not take any blame for the weather in Florida... I got this post in my blog from BowardJeff, he has found the remote.. and if he starts channel surfing the weather... its not our fault ;)


1065. BrowardJeff 3:50 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Ok..got to Toronto..found the remote, but someone took the batteries! It may take me a day or two to get replacements in..I think they come from Mexico.

No worries, I'm pretty sure I can get it working and fix this thing.

By the way, it's was a beautiful 22F with light flurries when I landed..nice, 'eh?
Yo Floodman,

I wrote a limerick today that you might enjoy! :)
Quoting Floodman:
Morning folks, by the way...it's a balmy 35.5 here in Fort Worth
Good Morning Floodman, A warm 22 degrees here with flurries. Hope you back is good.
Quoting StormW:


Wish I could...we could put down some Fosters together.


I leave tomorrow for a week in Cancun StormW... what can I expect for weather?
Good morning to you all got down to 19 degrees last night incredibly enough. This front doesn't wanna go away quietly man.
Quoting StormW:


Wish I could...we could put down some Fosters together.

We got better beer here than Fosters. That's why it's exported. We don't drink that stuff here.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I leave tomorrow for a week in Cancun StormW... what can I expect for weather?

28C and fine for your whole holiday.
NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG!! GOOD MORNING!!!
Lets try that again.

We are all treated discussions with family and friends regarding weather and climate.
I note that my borther-in-law is an self proclaimed expert in this (and numerous other) matters. Using his extensive experience and powers of reasoning and deduction, any single data point that he observes can be extrapolated to the entire planet! Gerrrrrr.

So the question remains, is anyone aware of a single source reference (THAT IS NOT CLIFFS NOTES !!) that discusses ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act AND INTERACT. These weather patterns would include;

- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- whatever happens around Antartica
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks again.
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning Floodman, A warm 22 degrees here with flurries. Hope you back is good.


It's much better now that the temps are moderating...