WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

December 2013: Earth's 3rd warmest December on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:36 PM GMT on January 25, 2014

December 2013 was the globe's 3rd warmest December since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and 4th warmest, according to NASA. December 2013 was the eighth consecutive month (since May 2013) with a global monthly temperature ranking among the top 10 highest for its respective month, and the year 2013 was the 4th warmest year on record. December 2013 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in December 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 2nd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of December 2013 in his December 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December 2013, the 3rd warmest December for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and eastern Russia, where temperature anomalies exceeded 5°C (9°F) across a large swath of the country. Record warmth was also present in various areas of coastal and southern Africa, and sections of southern South America. It was much cooler than average across parts of central and eastern Canada, the west coast of the United States, southern Greenland, part of southeastern Asia, and most of the Middle East, with record cold temperatures (more than 5°C / 9°F below average) observed around eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

The two billion-dollar weather disasters of December 2013
Two billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during December 2013: Winter Storm Xaver in Northern Europe, which killed 15 and did $1.5 billion in damage, and flooding in Southeast Brazil that killed 48 and did $1.4 billion in damage. These two disasters bring the world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2013 to 41, according to the December 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the highest yearly total of billion-dollar weather disasters for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000. The previous record highest number of billion-dollar weather disasters was 40, set in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters. The U.S. total in 2013 was nine, according to Aon Benfield (NOAA listed seven.)


Disaster 1. Winter Storm Xaver brought extreme winds and the second highest storm surge of the past 200 years to Northern Germany. The storm killed 15 and did $1.5 billion in damage. In this photo, we see a 14 meter (46') high, 1000 kilogram (2200 lb) Tyrannosaurus replica that was standing in front of the German climate museum Klimahaus in Bremehaven, which had the bolts which connected its base plate to the ground sheared off by the force of Xaver's winds. A peak wind gust of 78 mph (126 kph) was recorded in Bremerhaven during the storm. Image credit: Christine Sollmann and Michael Theusner of Klimahaus.


Disaster 2. Some of the worst flooding in 90 years affected parts of southeastern Brazil during the second half of December, killing at least 48 people and doing $1.4 billion in damage. Here, we see an aerial view of a flooded area in Vila Velha, Espirito Santo state, Brazil, on December 27, 2013. Image credit: YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP/Getty Images.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 21st month in row, December 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. The January 9 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral by mid-summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño. None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 5 of 15 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.2°C from average as of January 25, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest December extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during December was 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Northern Hemisphere snow cover was the 8th largest in the 48-year record.

I'll have a new post on Monday discussing the impressive cold blast setting up for the eastern half of the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. scott39
Mobile is going to get buried.
1502. Patrap
Wind and Winter Watch advisories

Should also be noted that GFS is still showing a secondary low developing after the initial one. Looks to keep precip off shore for right now, but if that should occur and trend back west a little the SC/NC coast could be looking at more snow in to Thurs.
Two Australian kayakers unable to circumnavigate Sri Lanka due to severe weather
Ok back to hw since it is not going to do itself, you all have a good night.
How about north Florida and Jacksonville with the secondary low?
Quoting 1489. nash36:


Well yeah. Sorry, but DC is used to winter weather. We are not. It's a bigger deal here than it is in DC. Don't mean to be flippant about it, but DC has seen several snowstorms and ice storms. Charleston can count them on one hand.


I would say the area mostly is. We ran out of salt during the winter of '09-10 (56" of snow - a record). But yes they do have salt and trucks in VA and DC but south of TN and NC I think it is very rare to have much of anything.
Quoting 1502. Patrap:
Wind and Winter Watch advisories

's really weird not to see any of those blue or white boxes over the NE US...
This is the most excitement I've had since Kare..err..well-- anyway, I am eager to see what outcome this brings. I need to pinch myself continually that this is actually happening here on the Gulf Coast!

Well, see you all tommorow!
Quoting 1481. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This run is still coming out, that pesky Subtropical Ridge is holding firm, don't you all wish it wasn't there for once, then this cold air would be able to advect further and further south bringing the snow line with it.




This run of the GFS is back to showing snow on Wednesday in Tallahassee, which is good to see and I think is more realistic given the overall consistency on the evolution of the depth and penetration of cold air into the area. It seemed the last run of keeping snow well north of my area seemed to me something not as reasonable.

Obviously its showing light backend snow, but sometimes "wraparound" snow bands can have additional forcing on the very end, we'll see. Even a very small accumulation on my car will get me giddy, especially because if it snows it appears it will snow on Wednesday so I don't have to lose sleep staying up Tuesday night.


I'd really love to see more than just some brief backend snow though, but any will still be fun :)
Quoting 1501. scott39:
Mobile is going to get buried.


I hope we get more than 1-3 inches of snow! hey, if we only get a significant snowfall every 10-20 years, then make it big!
I would have been in a sweet spot if I'm home 15 miles SE of Raleigh...

I live about 50 miles west of mobile and the GFS snow map sure looks nice but living near the coast I know most will be ice, but how much actual snow do ya'll think will get??
1514. Drakoen
Quoting 1506. BaltimoreBrian:
How about north Florida and Jacksonville with the secondary low?


The secondary low doesn't look to be throwing back precip into northern Florida and thickness will be increasing after the primary low exits.


You guys that want snow that bad are living in the wrong states lol.
1515. CCkid00
Quoting 1493. Patrap:

I think you live in south Louisiana, right? So.....I'm in Denham Springs. Is it looking like a pretty definite event here?
Quoting 1514. Drakoen:


The secondary low doesn't look to be throwing back precip into northern Florida and thickness will be increasing after the primary low exits.


You guys that want snow that bad are living in the wrong states lol.


That's exactly why we enjoy it so much...It's a rare treat. If it were a daily occurrence, it'd get ordinary.
1517. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Winter Storm Watch

Statement as of 3:04 PM CST on January 26, 2014

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late
Tuesday night...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday morning through
late Tuesday night.

* Timing... a wintry mix of precipitation could begin as early as
Tuesday morning... with the heaviest precipitation expected
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* Impacts... snow amounts in excess of two inches and sleet and
freezing rain accumulations of a quarter inch or more are
possible across the entire area. Travel conditions are expected
to become difficult due to icy roads and bridges during the day
on Tuesday. In areas where significant freezing rain
occurs... sporadic power outages are possible. The highest
potential for freezing rain will be across southeast Louisiana
south of Lake Pontchartrain including the city of New Orleans.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Lake Charles using the term Old Mexico this afternoon - haven't heard that before.

Discussion...
lets just jump to The Chase...another round of winter weather
(twice in a week?) Expected beginning Monday night and lingering
through Tuesday. Next Arctic cold front currently diving through
the northern tier of the Continental U.S. Will cross the forecast area tomorrow
morning. Meanwhile cutoff low approaching the West Coast is
prognosticated to move into old Mexico...opening up the Gulf to
increasing moisture by Tuesday.
This reminds me of the Jan 25th, 2000 storm.
Can I get excited yet?
ROFL at Drak! I love snow - just not the cold associated with it! The older I get, the harder the cold is to deal with...I love the beauty and serenity of falling snow. I never remember snow in my younger years here in Mobile but when I was 13 and moved to Nashville, I fell in love with it. Mobile is home again and has been for many years but I never got over my love for the white stuff. If we had snow here at least once a year, I would be a happy, happy girl...:)
1522. Patrap



1523. Drakoen
Quoting 1520. VAbeachhurricanes:
Can I get excited yet?


Any precip that fall in virginia is going to be snow. You're one of the lucky ones.
Quoting 1523. Drakoen:


Any precip that fall in virginia is going to be snow. You're one of the lucky ones.


Suck it losers
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AN EARLY EVENING SPIKE IN DEW POINTS AS
SOUTHWEST BREEZES HAVE BACKED MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY CREATE
MORE OPEN AREA PATCHY FOG (PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA) AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL TO NEAR ZERO AND
THE BREEZE LAYS DOWN. THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TRAVELING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...PROGRESSIVELY REACHING
THE COAST BY LATE MORNING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY...MID
TEEN AMBIENT AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS IN THE DAKOTAS
EVIDENCE TO THE POTENCY OF THIS NEXT AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO
TEXAS TOMORROW. NWP SUITE STILL FORECASTING AREAWIDE QPF IN THE
QUARTER (INTERIOR) TO NEAR HALF INCH (COAST) LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY
THAT WOULD EQUATE TO SNOW MEASURED BY THE INCHES OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH
AN EARLY DAY FROZEN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW (SANS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...MAYBE) BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIATES
THE LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
EITHER UPPER LEVEL FALLING ICE CRYSTALS AND/OR SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS
EVAPORATIVELY-COOL THE LOWER COLUMN TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMP THROUGH
THE DAY. RELATIVELY SHALLOW EARLY DAY 7-800MB WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO SHRINK BACK TOWARDS 0 C INTO MID-DAY. WHILE
SNOW IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES...A LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
OVER (NEAR) COASTAL COUNTIES IS BECOMING A MENTIONABLE EVENT. OF
COURSE...THE REAL HAZARDS WILL COME WITH THE PRECURSOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL COAT ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES WITH ICE.
THE BELOW REASONING STILL HOLDS TRUE ON HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF THIS
SOUND FAMILIAR? 31
I'm kind of surprised they didn't go with a winter weather advisory for at least the NW Panhandle of FL. Do current forecasts support winter storm watch/warning criteria? From what I have seen, just a tad NW of FL should easily meet criteria.


I got nuthin....
1528. Drakoen
Quoting 1524. VAbeachhurricanes:


Suck it losers


umm what?
Quoting 1528. Drakoen:


umm what?


Haha kidding, cause I don;t have to worry about any ice or sleet :)
Quoting 1526. HurrMichaelOrl:
I'm kind of surprised they didn't go with a winter weather advisory for at least the NW Panhandle of FL. Do current forecasts support winter storm watch/warning criteria? From what I have seen, just a tad NW of FL should easily meet criteria.


the Panhandle is under the Mobile NWS and we are all under a Winter Storm Watch..
1531. air360
lol i think VABeachHurricane is excited that any precip they see should be all snow lol
Quoting 1511. AllyBama:


I hope we get more than 1-3 inches of snow! hey, if we only get a significant snowfall every 10-20 years, then make it big!


Ally, be careful what you azk for LOL. I:spent 40 years living with this "stuff" and I hate it.
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Don't Play in the ICE
1534. Drakoen
Quoting 1530. AllyBama:


the Panhandle is under the Mobile NWS and we are all under a Winter Storm Watch..


Part of the panhandle is with Mobile NWS, the other is Tallahassee NWS which isn't as forgiving and probably has some agenda behind not putting us under a watch.
Looks like my Mobile crew has packed it in for the night - taking the easy road out for the evening. No doubt they are waiting until the morning to post anything notable. Here is their 10pm post:


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1001 PM CST sun Jan 26 2014

Marine...a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the entire
marine area of Alabama and nwfl out to 60 nm from 4 PM Monday afternoon
through 9 am Wednesday morning. Winds at 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts
to near gale force will be likely late Monday through middle morning Wednesday.
Seas up to 8 feet will be likely well offshore. 32/ee

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 50 62 25 32 23 / 20 50 20 60 80
Pensacola 51 65 29 35 28 / 20 50 20 60 80
Destin 53 66 34 39 31 / 20 50 30 60 80
Evergreen 45 58 27 32 26 / 10 50 20 60 70
Waynesboro 45 54 23 32 18 / 20 40 10 50 40
Camden 44 56 24 31 20 / 10 40 10 50 40
Crestview 46 66 30 37 28 / 20 50 20 60 80

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...Winter Storm Watch from 6 am Tuesday to 9 am Wednesday for the
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh...
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...lower Baldwin...lower
Mobile...Monroe...upper Baldwin...upper Mobile...
Washington...Wilcox...

Florida...Winter Storm Watch from 6 am Tuesday to 9 am Wednesday for the
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa...
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...
inland Santa Rosa...

MS...Winter Storm Watch from 6 am Tuesday to 9 am Wednesday for the
following zones: George...Greene...Perry...stone...Wayne...

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 9 am Wednesday for the
following zones: Choctawhatchee Bay...coastal waters from
Destin to Pensacola Florida out 20 nm...coastal waters from
Pensacola Florida to Pascagoula MS out 20 nm...Mississippi
Sound...northern Mobile Bay...Pensacola Bay system...
Perdido Bay...southern Mobile Bay...waters from Destin to
Pensacola Florida from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Pensacola Florida to
Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 nm...

&&
1536. air360
Local mets here in SE NC still are not buying into the sleet and ice idea...they are still leaning towards all snow. They think the cold air will have slid in enough to keep it all snow.....we shall see....
Quoting 1534. Drakoen:


Part of the panhandle is with Mobile NWS, the other is Tallahassee NWS which isn't as forgiving and probably has some agenda behind not putting us under a watch.


Terrified to do something like that in the Panhandle of Florida. Lol.
1538. ncstorm
Im Back Drak..is Ryan Maue saying what I think he is saying that from 18z Wednesday onward will be all snow..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m

GFS ptype is legit snow from 18z Wed until Arctic front blows thru -- how much can accumulate in Carolinas? pic.twitter.com/Ng9u1Gfgv1

1539. nash36
Yep. I wanted a snow event. Unfortunately, it appears to be an ice event transitioning to snow. In other words, horrific travel conditions. But we're not done yet!!! Oh no.... All of that precip will freeze again overnight.
1540. Drakoen
Quoting 1537. MississippiWx:


Terrified to do something like that in the Panhandle of Florida. Lol.


It starts with F and ends with U.

Quoting 1538. ncstorm:
Im Back Drak..is Ryan Maue saying what I think he is saying that from 18z Wednesday onward will be all snow..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m

GFS ptype is legit snow from 18z Wed until Arctic front blows thru -- how much can accumulate in Carolinas? pic.twitter.com/Ng9u1Gfgv1



Yes, Dr. Maue is correct which is what I have been trying to tell you.
Quoting 1540. Drakoen:


It starts with F and ends with U.

French gnu? That's an odd thing to say.
1542. ncstorm
Quoting 1540. Drakoen:


It starts with F and ends with U.



Yes, Dr. Maue is correct which is what I have been trying to tell you.


Okay..thanks..that map from my NWS is saying only mainly sleet..I'm just confused as h*ll..LOL..

I'll leave you alone now..
1543. air360
Dr. Maue is correct which is what I have been trying to tell you.


Haha, ncstorm, you/we might actually get the actual worst "storm" part of this...sleet and ice followed by a bunch of snow...it can still go either way...it aint over until...well...until it is over lol
I am out for the night. Sure going to be a l-o-n-g day at work tomorrow or at least until lunch when I can check up on the weather from my phn..
1545. ncstorm
Quoting 1543. air360:


Haha, ncstorm, you/we might actually get the actual worst "storm" part of this...sleet and ice followed by a bunch of snow...it can still go either way...it aint over until...well...until it is over lol


air..this has been an up and down and up night..LOL..that NWS map made me sick when I saw it..

I'm really out..Drak..thanks for being patient :)
Top 3 snowiest Januaries in Detroit

3. 26.9" 2005
2. 27.3" 1999
1. 29.6" 1978

2014... 34.4"
Quoting 1255. Bluestorm5:
This is the 21z SREF percentage of the chance of getting greater than 12 inches of snow. My home county is in 50% to 70% area. I am so disappointed that this is happening while I'm in Asheville.



I was at Penn State when my parents home in Mt Vernon Va was buried by 20" of snow in about eight hours during the Feb 1979 President's day storm. My location (State College PA) "only" got about 9" and it fell over about a 12 hour period.
Quoting 1538. ncstorm:
Im Back Drak..is Ryan Maue saying what I think he is saying that from 18z Wednesday onward will be all snow..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m

GFS ptype is legit snow from 18z Wed until Arctic front blows thru -- how much can accumulate in Carolinas? pic.twitter.com/Ng9u1Gfgv1

Does the snow/ice work south after 18Z?
The NWS office that has gone the longest without a Winter Storm Warning is Mobile, Alabama (and it won't stand by tomorrow). Their last Winter Storm Warning was 1,444 days ago, or February 12, 2010.

If all the areas in the south under Winter Storm Watches issue Winter Storm Warnings, the record will be handed to the NWS Jacksonville, FL (1,443 days). If they issue a Winter Storm Warning, then the record goes to the NWS Brownsville, TX (1,087 days).



But we all know who the REAL record goes to - the NWS offices in Miami, Tampa, Melbourne, and Key West who haven't issued a Winter Storm Warning since October 6, 2005 (which is when the count starts for the map above).
Quoting 1223. georgevandenberghe:


In some places local ordinance mandates it but even in other places, when snow or ice threatens, it is a good idea to get your vehicles off the road if at all possible and into driveways or yards or parking lots. This allows plows and salt trucks to do the whole street.

BTW here in DC, unless the forecast is bad, we are prepared for ice and use salt (effectively) against it. If icing comes by surprise though, the salt trucks get stuck in traffic and ice accumulates on the untreated roads making the mess worse. But I do not remember the main or secondary roads ever being impassable when ice was predicted and could be mitigated. I do remember disasterous surprises e.g Feb 2008.


I should have made clear my last paragraph applied to glazing situations in the DC area which we can handle with salt. Other icing situations though, particularly rain and ice pellets followed by wet snow followed by dry powdery snow followed by bitter cold can cripple DC commerce for days because even though the main streets get plowed, if this stuff isn't removed before it freezes solid, most of our snow removal equipment can't handle it and parking lots are out of commission until it softens from warmth. School lots seem particularly vulnerable and we racked up several snow days one year after the roads were clear because the school lots were packed in dense unbreakable ice several inches thick. Had it been removed while still soft, which I always do on my sidewalk, the problem wouldn't have occurred.
1551. Drakoen
GGEM 00z has the cold air pushing farther south and east. Great run for the southeast and more snow for the coast area, with a shorter transition from ice to snow.
Great discussion out of the Tallahassee office...


000
FXUS62 KTAE 270241
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Rather quiet night in store across the region as weak southerly
flow begins ahead of a strong arctic cold front. Weak ascent
overnight will lead to the possibility of some light
showers, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Further off to the
east across Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, areas of
fog will be possible again tonight, especially after the cirrus
canopy clears to the east. Temperatures should fall through about
06z then either level off or slowly rise as the low level
southerly flow becomes more established.

&&

.Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...
Some change in the 18z GFS/NAM and 21z SREF runs this evening,
with a little of a shift to the south with the cooler air and
heavier precip by Wednesday morning, and thus these models are
showing the potential for heavier ice accumulations nearing one
quarter inch. Given this possibility, went ahead and extended the
winter storm watch a few counties to the east in Southern Georgia
and in the Florida Panhandle. The overall synoptic reasoning is
unchanged from this afternoon. The degree of uncertainty and
difficulty with this forecast was well stated in this afternoon`s
discussion and that text appears below. Certainly going to be an
interesting next couple of days watching this event unfold.

Monday will be the last day of a brief reprieve from our recent
cold weather. An arctic cold front will move through the region
Monday Night, then stall across the southern Gulf of Mexico and
South FL on Tuesday. A weak frontal wave, perhaps more than one,
will develop along this front and translate east-northeastward
along the front, ahead of an approaching positive tilted long wave
trough over the Central Plains. Deep layer moisture (above the
very dry and cold boundary layer) and large scale ascent will form
a shield of precipitation along the Gulf Coast States Tuesday
Night and Wednesday. This is where the forecast becomes very
challenging.

There are two main solutions. The 12 UTC GFS and NAM forecast a
prolonged period of precipitation that lasts from Tuesday Night
through most of Wednesday. This solution doesn`t bring the deepest,
cold air as far south, which results in a non-liquid precipitation
line that runs roughly along and north of a line from Tifton to
Panama City. Along and north of this line, this solution (especially
the NAM) suggests widespread, significant ice accumulations, mixing
in with sleet and snow on Wednesday as the column gradually cools.
During the day on Wednesday the freezing line moves farther south,
bringing the first snow storm in recent history to Tallahassee, but
not much measurable snow. The 00 UTC ECMWF is colder and more
progressive than the GFS, showing about a 6 to 12-hour period of
mostly sleet and snow across much of our forecast area Tuesday Night
and early Wednesday. It seems that the main difference between the
two solutions boils down to their handling of a cutoff low currently
off the CA coast. The GFS essentially "captures" this feature and
partially phases it with the main long wave trough. This means a
more shallow cold airmass and a much wetter storm system. The
ECMWF keeps the system cut off from the westerlies, resulting in a
quick shot of wintry precipitation in our area.


Quoting 1549. weatherbow:
The NWS office that has gone the longest without a Winter Storm Warning is Mobile, Alabama (and it won't stand by tomorrow). Their last Winter Storm Warning was 1,444 days ago, or February 12, 2010.

If all the areas in the south under Winter Storm Watches issue Winter Storm Warnings, the record will be handed to the NWS Jacksonville, FL (1,443 days). If they issue a Winter Storm Warning, then the record goes to the NWS Brownsville, TX (1,087 days).



But we all know who the REAL record goes to - the NWS offices in Miami, Tampa, Melbourne, and Key West who haven't issued a Winter Storm Warning since October 6, 2005 (which is when the count starts for the map above).


Miami issued an advisory for icy roads Jan 19, 1977. I think that's the only time they've ever had to. (Source, Weatherwise)
Quoting 1526. HurrMichaelOrl:
I'm kind of surprised they didn't go with a winter weather advisory for at least the NW Panhandle of FL. Do current forecasts support winter storm watch/warning criteria? From what I have seen, just a tad NW of FL should easily meet criteria.



This is mainly due to uncertainty still. Areas that have winter storm watches are areas where there is higher confidence of winter precip accumulations, in my area the confidence is lower, hence no winter products, yet.

We'll see.
1555. air360
Quoting 1551. Drakoen:
GGEM 00z has the cold air pushing farther south and east. Great run for the southeast and more snow for the coast area, with a shorter transition from ice to snow.


Thanks for the update...poor ncstorm...probably so worried not gonna sleep tonight...that might have been some good comfort lol
1557. bappit
For the late evening crowd, free verse condensed from the Houston-Galveston discussion.

MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT

MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT,
AN EARLY EVENING SPIKE
IN DEW POINTS.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES BACKED MORE SOUTHERLY,
MORE OPEN AREA PATCHY FOG.
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO.
THE BREEZE LAYS DOWN.

FAST-MOVING COLD BOUNDARY THROUGH NEBRASKA PUSHING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
REACHING THE COAST BY LATE MORNING.
From the NWS Slidell office:

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WITH BOTH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE
ACCUMULATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.


Oh yes I hope this happens omg omg omg

Time to check the models since I'm off work.

Feb starts this Sat, can not believe it.
1560. scott39
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:
From the NWS Slidell office:

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WITH BOTH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE
ACCUMULATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.


Oh yes I hope this happens omg omg omg

Time to check the models since I'm off work.

We didn't get our hurricane....this is going to happen Kori!
1561. Drakoen
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:
From the NWS Slidell office:

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WITH BOTH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE
ACCUMULATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.


Oh yes I hope this happens omg omg omg

Time to check the models since I'm off work.



You're sitting good Kori. Likely see a layer of ice with snow 1-3in.

Quoting 1561. Drakoen:


You're sitting good Kori. Likely see a layer of ice with snow 1-3in.
We're actually already preparing for the possibility of power outages.

I've endured power outages from Katrina, Gustav, and Isaac, with the longest of those power outages being 5 days post-Gustav. I have yet to experience a weather-related power loss due to cold.
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:
From the NWS Slidell office:

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WITH BOTH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN CAUSING ICE
ACCUMULATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.


Oh yes I hope this happens omg omg omg

Time to check the models since I'm off work.



I dont want the ice but im down for the snowfall but i hope everyone keen the warnings and take every precaution b/c with the mess that might happen, it could get ugly.. I hope everyone has a safe next 3 days or so..
1564. Drakoen
Must Read (updated at 11:26PM EST) from the HPC:

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES
AND WED. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS DRIVING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MODEST VS VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ENERGY...DRIVING
A MUCH WETTER SOLN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE ALSO IN PART MORE
ENERGETIC BECAUSE OF THEIR ATTEMPT TO BRING SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OUT OF NRN MEXICO RELATING TO THE CLOSED LOW EVOLUTION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS...INCLUDING THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET AND THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL ALL SUPPORT A
LESS-AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES AND WED. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS ARE NOTABLY
DRIER AS A RESULT WITH MUCH LESS BACKING OF THE MID LVL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT THAT THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING ACROSS THE
EAST...A MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS SOLN DOES NOT SEEM PARTICULARLY
REALISTIC. THIS COUPLED WITH CONCERNS ABOUT THE NAM AND GFS
HANDLING OF ENERGY CROSSING NRN MEXICO SUGGESTS LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NCEP SOLNS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT TOO ON A LESS-AMPLIFIED AND RELATIVELY DRIER SCENARIO
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. FOR
NOW...WPC WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
ATTM
...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED.
Quoting 1564. Drakoen:
Must Read (updated at 11:26PM EST) from the HPC:

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES
AND WED. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS DRIVING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MODEST VS VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ENERGY...DRIVING
A MUCH WETTER SOLN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE ALSO IN PART MORE
ENERGETIC BECAUSE OF THEIR ATTEMPT TO BRING SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OUT OF NRN MEXICO RELATING TO THE CLOSED LOW EVOLUTION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS...INCLUDING THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET AND THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL ALL SUPPORT A
LESS-AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES AND WED. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS ARE NOTABLY
DRIER AS A RESULT WITH MUCH LESS BACKING OF THE MID LVL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT THAT THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING ACROSS THE
EAST...A MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS SOLN DOES NOT SEEM PARTICULARLY
REALISTIC. THIS COUPLED WITH CONCERNS ABOUT THE NAM AND GFS
HANDLING OF ENERGY CROSSING NRN MEXICO SUGGESTS LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NCEP SOLNS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT TOO ON A LESS-AMPLIFIED AND RELATIVELY DRIER SCENARIO
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. FOR
NOW...WPC WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
ATTM
...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED.


Drak... just letting you know that at 12AM looking at a paragraph of bold print really messes with the eyes :p
1566. bappit
Not expecting any icicles to speak of near Houston. The warm up will be fast, above freezing Wednesday night.

Tuesday: Ice today, gone tomorrow.
Quoting 1564. Drakoen:
Must Read (updated at 11:26PM EST) from the HPC:

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES
AND WED. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS DRIVING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MODEST VS VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ENERGY...DRIVING
A MUCH WETTER SOLN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE ALSO IN PART MORE
ENERGETIC BECAUSE OF THEIR ATTEMPT TO BRING SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OUT OF NRN MEXICO RELATING TO THE CLOSED LOW EVOLUTION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS...INCLUDING THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET AND THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL ALL SUPPORT A
LESS-AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE MS/OH/TN VLYS TUES AND WED. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS ARE NOTABLY
DRIER AS A RESULT WITH MUCH LESS BACKING OF THE MID LVL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT THAT THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING ACROSS THE
EAST...A MORE AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS SOLN DOES NOT SEEM PARTICULARLY
REALISTIC. THIS COUPLED WITH CONCERNS ABOUT THE NAM AND GFS
HANDLING OF ENERGY CROSSING NRN MEXICO SUGGESTS LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NCEP SOLNS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT TOO ON A LESS-AMPLIFIED AND RELATIVELY DRIER SCENARIO
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. FOR
NOW...WPC WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
ATTM
...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED.


Funny. The 00z UKMET came more in line with the GFS/NAM solutions. 0z CMC trended back towards the GFS. And they think the CMC has been consistent? Lol. Not a chance. Will be interesting to see the Euro.
1568. Drakoen
Quoting 1567. MississippiWx:


Funny. The 00z UKMET came more in line with the GFS/NAM solutions. 0z CMC trended back towards the GFS. And they think the CMC has been consistent? Lol. Not a chance. Will be interesting to see the Euro.


It looked like the GGEM trended eastward inline with the ECMWF. The cold air was certainly farther south and east. I haven't seen the UKMET 00z since it's difficult to get access to.
Quoting 1568. Drakoen:


It looked like the GGEM trended eastward inline with the ECMWF. The cold air was certainly farther south and east. I haven't seen the UKMET 00z since it's difficult to get access to.


0z UKMET

Quoting 1489. nash36:


Well yeah. Sorry, but DC is used to winter weather. We are not. It's a bigger deal here than it is in DC. Don't mean to be flippant about it, but DC has seen several snowstorms and ice storms. Charleston can count them on one hand.
I think you'd need at least two hands if you went all the way back to the Colonial era.
1571. Drakoen
Quoting 1569. MississippiWx:


0z UKMET



lol I need more than precip. 500mb maps and 850mb thermal profile
Quoting 1571. Drakoen:


lol I need more than precip. 500mb maps and 850mb thermal profile


I realize that, but the UKMET didn't even have precip past the coastline previously.
Quoting 1554. Jedkins01:



This is mainly due to uncertainty still. Areas that have winter storm watches are areas where there is higher confidence of winter precip accumulations, in my area the confidence is lower, hence no winter products, yet.

We'll see.
I thought the Western Panhandle was under a Winter Storm Watch?
Quoting 1569. MississippiWx:


0z UKMET



is that all snow? how much?

Any one have an idea when the Euro come out?? Hoping for a trend towards the GFS and the NAM.. LOL
Quoting 1573. FLWaterFront:
I thought the Western Panhandle was under a Winter Storm Watch?


It is, I'm talking about TLH, winter storm watches are about 2 counties to my northwest.
1578. air360
Quoting 1575. hericane96:
Any one have an idea when the Euro come out?? Hoping for a trend towards the GFS and the NAM.. LOL


It is starting right now
Quoting 1578. air360:


It is starting right now

Thanks!!
Looks like Friday we'll be running those 20 or 30 wheelbarrow loads of goat, chicken and rabbit composted mulch onto the vegetable rows.

80% CHANCE OMG OMG OMG

Thursday
rain Periods of rain. High 52F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Thursday Night
nt_chancerain A few showers in the evening, then clouds lingering overnight. Low 29F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.


We're already planning on having to lay in a year's worth of hay. I walked the pasture yesterday, it's pretty bad.
1581. air360
Ok - correct me if I am wrong - but looking at the 850mb the euro has all of NC freezing by just 36hrs out...the would be a sign of an ALL snow for NC...right...no ice/sleet? (assuming surface is also freezing which it will be)


Hour 66 Temp Anomaly....looks like the end times could be upon us
1583. Drakoen
ECMWF 00z:
Quoting 1583. Drakoen:
ECMWF 00z:


Texas?
1585. Drakoen
Quoting 1584. galvestonhurricane:


Texas?


I don't have that link. Maybe someone else does.
Quoting 1585. Drakoen:


I don't have that link. Maybe someone else does.





change both "se" in url to "tx"
Quoting 1586. GeorgiaStormz:





change both "se" in url to "tx"


0.3-.4 of snow, i am completely fine with that, better then nothing which is what I an expecting
Does that emcwf map account for frozen precip? or just snow? Same question regarding GFS.

And can someone post the emcwf precipitable water map?
My forecast is so complicated. There's a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and snow between 3am and 3pm Tuesday, changing to all snow and sleet between 3pm and 7pm, changing to all snow from 7pm to 3am, changing back to sleet and snow from 3am to 8am, becoming all snow after 8am Wednesday.
Quoting 1591. TropicalAnalystwx13:
My forecast is so complicated. There's a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and snow between 3am and 3pm Tuesday, changing to all snow and sleet between 3pm and 7pm, changing to all snow from 7pm to 3am, changing back to sleet and snow from 3am to 8am, becoming all snow after 8am Wednesday.


Sounds just like ATX last Friday.
Quoting 1591. TropicalAnalystwx13:
My forecast is so complicated. There's a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and snow between 3am and 3pm Tuesday, changing to all snow and sleet between 3pm and 7pm, changing to all snow from 7pm to 3am, changing back to sleet and snow from 3am to 8am, becoming all snow after 8am Wednesday.

Also known as "Stay home, don't drive anywhere". Or "Wintry ****"
Quoting 1585. Drakoen:


I don't have that link. Maybe someone else does.


I'm in South-central Louisiana near Lafayette. Looks the the Euro is the worse case scenario and my area still gets 2 inches of snow on that run...sitting pretty here
1595. Drakoen
HPC 1:56AM EST update

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER RESPECT TO THE CLOSED
LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH BAJA/MEXICO ON TUES.
THEREAFTER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS INDICATE A
PROGRESSIVE/SHEARED SOLN WITH THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENING INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH AXIS AND PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO BEFORE SHEARING
OUT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE NON-NCEP SOLNS...INCLUDING
THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL HAVE ALL TRENDED A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BEGIN TO OPEN THE CLOSED LOW UP OVER CNTRL
MEXICO BY EARLY WED. THE LATEST MODELS ARE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CONSENSUS AS COMPARED TO PREV
MODEL CYCLES. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW....THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL IS THE
SLOWEST SOLN WITH THE ENERGY...COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
CAMP WHICH IS THE FASTEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET SPLIT THE
DIFF AND CLUSTER VERY WELL. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE TO THE
SOLN IF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...WITH THE LATEST ECENS MEAN SLOWER
AND ACTUALLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL SOLN. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CLUSTERING...WILL FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z
UKMET SOLNS SINCE THEY AT LEAST DO NOT REPRESENT OUTLIER CAMPS
WITH THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. CONFIDENCE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED.
Link

The end of the snow storm that hit South of Romania this weekend. The snow amount is almoust 30-40 cm and another snow storm is forecast for Wendsday with another 20 cm of snow.
1598. LargoFl
Raining Already by me....................
1599. Drakoen
NAM 06z is throwing back more precip for us Gulf Coast and especially the panhandle of FL folks.
NWS in Newport/Morehead went with a warning no watch whatsoever. I'm am happy with it

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE FRONT THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION SOUTHEAST
OF THE NC COAST TO SPREAD HEAVY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NC BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME HEAVY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW
NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS WOULD IN EFFECT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
SOMEWHAT HERE.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-272100 -
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.140128T1500Z-140129T2100Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-O NSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...M AYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...TRENTON...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO...
ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNES OTT BEACH...
VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...
NEWPORT...JACKSONVILLE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...
NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
356 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME MINOR ICE ACCRETION OR SLEET MAY OCCUR
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...REMAINING STEADY IN THE 20S.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 8 ABOVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. NEVER
USE A GENERATOR INDOORS. GAS GRILLS, GENERATORS, AND CAMP STOVES
CREATE DEADLY CARBON MONOXIDE FUMES THAT WILL BUILD UP WHEN USED
IN YOUR HOME.
1601. IKE
New Orleans new forecast....

  • Today A 40 percent chance
    of showers. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a
    steady temperature around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north
    10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
  • Tonight
    A chance of rain showers before 4am, then a chance of rain showers and
    sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15
    to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow
    accumulation expected.
  • Tuesday
    A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then freezing
    rain likely between 1pm and 4pm, then freezing rain and sleet likely
    after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 31 by 1pm.
    Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is
    70%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Little or
    no snow accumulation expected.
  • Tuesday Night
    Freezing rain and sleet likely before 7pm, then freezing rain and
    sleet, possibly mixed with snow between 7pm and 1am, then a chance of
    snow and sleet after 1am. Low around 26. Wind chill values as low as
    14. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30
    mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3
    of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches
    possible.
  • Wednesday
    A chance of snow and sleet before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near
    37. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30
    mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow and sleet accumulation of
    less than a half inch possible.

1602. IKE
Houston,TX discussion....

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUES
MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX AND THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX OVER THE NORTH
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MID MORNING. QPF NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...PROBABLY 1-2 INCH TOTALS.
THE PRECIP WILL START LATER OVER THE SOUTH...PROBABLY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PRECIPITATE THROUGH THE END OF THE AFTN. QPF LOOKS
MORE GENEROUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND UPPER COASTAL ZONES. THINK THIS
IS WHERE MOST OF THE TROUBLE WILL OCCUR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM NOSE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS BELOW
3000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MELT ON ITS DESCENT AND THEN
EITHER FALL AS RAIN AND FREEZE ON CONTACT OR REFREEZE AND FALL AS
SLEET. LIQUID EQUILALENT IS ABOUT 0.40 INCHES AND IF THIS FALLS AS
FREEZING RAIN...SIGNIFICANT ICING OF ROADWAYS AND POWERLINES WILL
DEVELOP. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID
20S DURING THE PRECIP EVENT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EFFICIENT
ICE MAKING. FCST SOUNDINGS TREND COLDER IN THE LATE AFTN AND SOME
SNOW WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO THE MESS BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS
QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF SENDS A PIECE OF
ENERGY EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SO
KEPT 20 POPS FOR THE FAR SW ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE COLD ON
WED AND MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S UNDER
FULL SUN.
1603. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AT A MEASURED 40
KTS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM EAST
TENNESSEE...TO SHREVEPORT...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. PROJECTING THE
FRONTAL SPEED PLACES THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. SO FAR EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
ONSETTING LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REALLY GET GOING MUCH OF TUESDAY
BEFORE TAPERING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD IN DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND COMBINATIONS...IT MAY
BE BEST TO GIVE AN AREAL TIMELINE OF APPROXIMATE ONSETS/ENDINGS
FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

KMCB...FROPA AROUND 8 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE MIDNIGHT...ENDING 11 AM
THU...DURATION 59 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP AROUND 4 AM TUE
ENDING AROUND 6 AM WED.

KBTR...FROPA AROUND 830 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE 2 AM...ENDING NOON THU...
DURATION 61 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP AROUND 6 AM TUE ENDING
AROUND 6 AM WED.

KHDC/KASD...FROPA AROUND 9 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE 5 AM...ENDING
NOON THU... DURATION 55 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP AROUND 6 AM
TUE ENDING AROUND 7 AM WED.

KNEW/KMSY...FROPA AROUND 10 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE 10 AM TUE...ENDING
10 AM THU... DURATION 48 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP AROUND 7 AM
TUE ENDING AROUND 9 AM WED.

KGPT/KPQL...FROPA AROUND 10 AM...ONSET OF FREEZE 6 AM
TUE...ENDING NOON THU... DURATION 54 HOURS. ONSET OF WINTER
PRECIP AROUND 8 AM TUE ENDING AROUND 10 AM WED.

NOTE THE FREEZE DURATION MAY NOT BE CONSECUTIVE HOURS AS A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY BREIFLY WARM TO AROUND 33 TUE AFTERNOON FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL GRIP OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
THESE DURATIONS BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONSETS LATER THURSDAY.
This arctic front means business. The NWS, and other private agencies, had Metro Detroit only picking up an inch or less. Global models weren't showing much for tonight, but the high resolution short range models caught on to the snow. It wasn't to the extent of the actual accumulations, however. Most areas in Metro Detroit look to have picked up 2-4" in a 6hr time period, with most of that in a 4hr period. Brief blizzard conditions occurred during the snow and near-blizzard conditions have been occurring since. Winds gusted up to 40mph during a short period of time. A WWA was issued for blowing snow and goes until noon today. This makes the already hazardous roads even more hazardous. There were numerous accidents yesterday, including a 33 vehicle mva on I696. Can only imagine how the morning commute will be today.
1605. IKE
A lot of the NWS discussions are late in coming out this morning. It's understandable. Nice thing is....warmer weather begins Thursday and lasts for awhile. Weather pattern finally changing. I've had a head cold for a month.
Good morning.

Those who live in the deep south stay safe during this wintry period in terms of driving thru icy roads.
Quoting 1605. IKE:
A lot of the NWS discussions are late in coming out this morning. It's understandable. Nice thing is....warmer weather begins Thursday and lasts for awhile. Weather pattern finally changing. I've had a head cold for a month.
Morning Ike.

I feel u on the head cold. We've been average to slightly below average for the last 2 weeks or so, which has actually be enjoyable to a certain extent. However, I don't wish to spend the rest of February colder than usual, TYVM... and my sinuses have been giving me whiplash with the FROPAs...

Good Monday morning to all, btw.
1609. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike.

I feel u on the head cold. We've been average to slightly below average for the last 2 weeks or so, which has actually be enjoyable to a certain extent. However, I don't wish to spend the rest of February colder than usual, TYVM... and my sinuses have been giving me whiplash with the FROPAs...

Morning. I imagine the watches will be changed to warnings by later today...IF the threat continues.
Our snow looks like sleet and a little freezing rain. I'm waiting to see the discussion this morning hoping we get more snow and less freezing rain. So close yet so fay away!
Quoting 1609. IKE:

Morning. I imagine the watches will be changed to warnings by later today...IF the threat continues.
Looks like an interesting 48 hrs starting tonight....
Quoting wxchaser97:
This arctic front means business. The NWS, and other private agencies, had Metro Detroit only picking up an inch or less. Global models weren't showing much for tonight, but the high resolution short range models caught on to the snow. It wasn't to the extent of the actual accumulations, however. Most areas in Metro Detroit look to have picked up 2-4" in a 6hr time period, with most of that in a 4hr period. Brief blizzard conditions occurred during the snow and near-blizzard conditions have been occurring since. Winds gusted up to 40mph during a short period of time. A WWA was issued for blowing snow and goes until noon today. This makes the already hazardous roads even more hazardous. There were numerous accidents yesterday, including a 33 vehicle mva on I696. Can only imagine how the morning commute will be today.


Good Morning All, the drive in was interesting, stayed off of I-75, my drive to work car is an '87 samurai with a locked rear end, very light and wants to slide, lol.

Detroit 11F wind chill -5
wind 15 gusting to 24
blowing snow

I really like winter and snow but.....
1613. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Our snow looks like sleet and a little freezing rain. I'm waiting to see the discussion this morning hoping we get more snow and less freezing rain. So close yet so fay away!
The last cold front they called for a hard freeze here. Didn't happen. I wouldn't bet my checking acct. balance on this happening.

Very odd that the discussion is this late....from Birmingham,AL and Tallahassee,FL. Mobile,AL discussion is usually one of the latest.
1614. beell
Worth a mention that these probability forecasts end Wednesday morning-with the event ongoing over the eastern half of the outlooked area.
Both graphics issued at 08Z Monday, 01/27.


WPC Probability of Freezing Rain exceeding .25"-Valid 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday.


WPC Probability of Snow ≥4"-Valid 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday.
(click for full images)
Snow and ice in North Florida while it's beach weather down here in S.W. Florida.
7 Day for Fort Myers
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 57 degrees and the temp is to go down to 25. We're already at our high for the day. We're on another winter storm alert. I think this will be the shortest of time between winter storms ever seen in Louisiana. The radar looks clean, but Post is reporting light rain. We're getting in fresh snacks just in case we do get any ice.

Breakfasts on the sideboard: Berry Stuffed French Toast with Vanilla Yogurt Sauce, Ricotta Stuffed French Toast with Caramelized Bananas, bacon, egg and cheese Breakfast Cupcakes, Cinnamon Breakfast Bites, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
1617. IKE
I'll take the french toast. I've been craving it.

54 degrees outside my window.
1618. LargoFl
Good Morning..had some good rains here this morning already..
1619. LargoFl
Rian bands moving inland..
1620. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2014

...Winter Storm Watch in Effect From Tuesday Evening Through Early
Wednesday Afternoon for Much of Southwest Georgia...Southeast
Alabama...and Portions of the Florida Panhandle...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A weak low pressure disturbance will pass through the region today,
and despite plenty of cloud cover and chances for mainly light rain
(ranging from 20 percent across almost the entire eastern half of
the CWA to up to 50 percent over the extreme western portions of the
region this afternoon), a rare warm day for this January is expected
across the area. However, because of the expected cloud cover, stuck
very close to our local CAM guidance, and did trim it back about a
degree or so for high temperatures. Therefore, although much of the
FL Big Bend and the Valdosta area in GA may approach the 70 degree
mark when all is said and done, Max temps over SE AL may be very
similar to what they were yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday night]...
The Arctic cold front will have pushed south and east of our CWA by
tonight. This front is forecast to stall across the central Gulf of
Mexico and South Florida on Tuesday with a weak frontal wave
develops and translates east-northeastward along the boundary. A
very broad upper level trough will cover most of the CONUS and
continue to amplify through the period. Deep layer moisture and
large scale ascent will stretch from southern Texas eastward along
the gulf coastal states Tuesday into early Wednesday. Much drier air
will begin to filter into the region late Wednesday as the upper
trough further amplifies and surface high pressure builds down from
the north. Short term models are still in pretty good agreement
showing a prolonged period of precipitation across the CWA and PoPs
have been adjusted up accordingly. The difficulty in this forecast
continues to be forecasting the non-liquid precip with very cold
temperatures in the boundary layer. Specifically, what form,
locations and amounts. Although model trends for temperatures have
edged up slightly, our forecast grids still support a wintry mix of
precipitation over portions of our FA for the Tuesday night and
Wednesday time frame. Also during this period, HPC has backed off
quite a bit on QPF amounts but we will use a model blend for QPF
which still shows amounts to support the Winter Storm Watch that we
have in place. Thus, we just made minor cosmetic adjustments to the
previous forecast package leaving the current outline of the Winter
Storm Watch untouched. This means we should see a gradual changeover
(from northwest to southeast Tuesday Night through Wednesday
Morning) from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to finally
snow. Places north of a line from Panama City to Tifton stand the
best chance of accumulating snow/sleet, though a dusting is still
possible farther south and east. The disconcerting part of the
forecast is the potential for significant ice accumulations. Much of
our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with isolated
higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little
infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen
precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropical
cyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would
undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads.
Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather
clothing risk hypothermia.
1621. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MROCZKA
1622. LargoFl
GFS has slowed down a bit on this run..........
1623. LargoFl
wow going to be some horrible driving conditions wens...
1624. LargoFl
from texas to NC..please stay alert and safe folks..conditions are really going to go downhill from here on....
1625. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
450 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-272100-
/O.UPG.KILM.WS.A.0001.140128T1700Z-140129T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.WS.W.0001.140128T1700Z-140129T2300Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...
CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...
SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON.. .FLORENCE...
MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS INLET
450 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET INLAND AND SLEET
AND SNOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES....BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT CLOSER TO THE COAST.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WINTRY MIX MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHEN GREATEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* IMPACTS...VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
ROADS BECOME SNOW OR ICE COVERED. BRIDGES WILL BE ICY AND
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. THERE MAY BE LENGTHY POWER INTERRUPTIONS
AS WINDS GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER
CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS IN GOOD
RUNNING ORDER AND HAS BEEN PROPERLY WINTERIZED. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU TAKE A WINTER WEATHER SURVIVAL KIT IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL.

&&

$$

RGZ
1626. MahFL
Quoting 1604. wxchaser97:
Brief blizzard conditions occurred during the snow.


You can't have a brief blizzard, by definition it has to last 3 hours, not 3 mins.
1627. IKE
Defuniak Springs,FL. forecast(for me)....

Tuesday Night: Rain and freezing rain in the evening...then
freezing rain after midnight. Lows around 27. Ice accumulation of up to
one quarter of an inch. North winds around 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent.



Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of freezing rain and sleet in
the morning...then a slight chance of snow and light sleet in the
afternoon. Highs around 34. No snow and sleet accumulation. Ice
accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. North winds around 10
mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.


I see all our potential has drifted East to get ready to assist in your adventure later.
The site doesn't show any sprinkles last night and I was told it was sprinkling earlier this morning but there is no physical evidence of it. So, we still got 1.15in since July 01, 2013 The news last night said there was no precip forecast for 9 days, or he didn't see anything that would warrant a forecast. So Good Morning WU'ers.
Quoting 1626. MahFL:


You can't have a brief blizzard, by definition it has to last 3 hours, not 3 mins.

You can have brief near-blizzard conditions. Happens all the time. A complete white-out and strong winds? Blizzard/blizzard like whatever.
Quoting 1626. MahFL:


You can't have a brief blizzard, by definition it has to last 3 hours, not 3 mins.
Well, he said "blizzard conditions", which isn't quite the same thing. Here's a good paragraph from a TWC article on the subject:

"That having been said, sometimes warnings are issued with the expectation of sufficiently strong winds along with heavy snow and visibility around, but not below, 1/4 mile because that's for all practical purposes a blizzard. The point is that blizzard conditions, or something close to that, can be life-threatening, especially if they occur suddenly and without warning, by stranding people without proper protection against the low wind chills -- and if the snow melts upon contacting your clothes and body and you get wet, that further increases the risk of hypothermia. For cases when it's windy and snowing hard but not meeting the purist definition of blizzard, "near blizzard conditions" is a good qualifier to use."
We had some thunder and lightning this morning along with torrential rain off and on all night last night across the Northside of Orlando.

Quoting 1617. IKE:
I'll take the french toast. I've been craving it.

54 degrees outside my window.


Passes over a plate of French toast.

The superintendent of schools here hates to close schools. He is not going to be happy about this second storm. It has to be extreme to close schools, once had school after 9 inches of rain, roads closed and cars floating on the main streets of town.
1633. LargoFl
Quoting 1631. StormTrackerScott:
We had some thunder and lightning this morning along with torrential rain off and on all night last night across the Northside of Orlando.

for us this system in the gulf is a good thing..we can surely use these rains..
Quoting 1627. IKE:
Defuniak Springs,FL. forecast(for me)....

Tuesday Night: Rain and freezing rain in the evening...then
freezing rain after midnight. Lows around 27. Ice accumulation of up to
one quarter of an inch. North winds around 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent.



Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of freezing rain and sleet in
the morning...then a slight chance of snow and light sleet in the
afternoon. Highs around 34. No snow and sleet accumulation. Ice
accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. North winds around 10
mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.


Hope you have gas for your generator!
1635. LargoFl
1636. LargoFl
1637. LargoFl
1638. IKE

Quoting aislinnpaps:


Hope you have gas for your generator!
What generator? :(
1639. ncstorm
Wilmington, NC has been upgraded to a winter storm warning here..
1640. LargoFl
1641. LargoFl
from the warnings it looks like the closer you live to the coast the more likely you get hit with alot of ice and freezing rain..from texas to NC..wow...hope not too many power outages..stay safe folks.
1642. IKE
Mobile,AL. forecast....

Today: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Highs in the upper 50s.
Southwest winds around 5 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.



Tonight: Cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the evening...then
chance of rain and light freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the upper
20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Tuesday: Much colder. Chance of light freezing rain and light
sleet in the morning...then freezing rain or sleet in the afternoon. Ice
accumulations between one tenth and one quarter inch. Sleet
accumulation to 1 inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Tuesday Night: Freezing rain likely in the evening. Snow and
sleet likely through the night. Freezing rain after midnight. Light ice
and snow accumulations. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Wow... everybody up early this a.m..... lol

I gotta run. Stay safe and have a good one!
Quoting 1626. MahFL:


You can't have a brief blizzard, by definition it has to last 3 hours, not 3 mins.
Brief blizzard conditions doesn't equal a brief blizzard. The wind and visibility criteria was hit for a short period of time, but the duration criteria was not, thus there was a period of blizzard conditions.
NBC World News headline January "Coldest Month This Century."

And I'm sure they are talking about the Eastern U.S. or th U.S. in general.
As we know Cali and Alaska have been very warm in Jan.
Not sure where they're getting their information, but this should make the blog. Doesn't NBC own TWC, etc?
1646. LargoFl
1647. IKE
Crestview,FL. forecast.....

Today: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs around 60. Southwest winds around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.



Tonight: Cloudy. Chance of rain through the night. Chance of
light freezing rain after midnight. Lows around 30. North winds 10 to 15
mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Tuesday: Much colder. Chance of light freezing rain...rain and
light sleet in the morning...then rain or freezing rain or sleet in the
afternoon. Sleet accumulation to 1 inch. Near steady temperature in the
lower 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.




Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet through the night. Snow
after midnight. Light ice and snow accumulations. Lows in the upper 20s.
North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.



Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of freezing rain...snow and
light sleet in the morning. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15
mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
1648. LargoFl
Quoting 1645. Sfloridacat5:
NBC World News headline January "Coldest Month This Century."

Not sure where they're getting their information, but this should make the blog. Doesn't NBC own TWC, etc?
well they need to watch the winters to come,if it keeps coming like this maybe there IS a change in climate huh
1649. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC is going with the GFS/NAM..ice/sleet and then turning over into snow..

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AROUND I-95 CORRIDOR TUES
NIGHT WHILE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.
The KTLA News is reporting that some places got some rain. I was watching the radar last night and it was missing the local area. Glad some people got some. Well, time to go back to sleep.
1651. MahFL
Quoting 1629. Doppler22:

You can have brief near-blizzard conditions. Happens all the time. A complete white-out and strong winds? Blizzard/blizzard like whatever.


It's not correct though. A blizzard is a blizzard not a snow squall, no matter how heavy or windy it was.
joe b is calling for next winter to be a bad one too
1653. MahFL
Quoting 1645. Sfloridacat5:
NBC World News headline January "Coldest Month This Century."



This century is only 14 years old, 86 more years left of this century...
Quoting 1638. IKE:

What generator? :(


ACK! Ice/freezing rain + our power lines = no power

I'm out the door, my classroom awaits me. Everyone have a great Monday!
1655. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC

TEMPS ON TUES SHOULD FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE UNDER MAX CAA
WITH TEMPS FALLING AND LEVELING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND MAINLY ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES IN BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TUES NIGHT AND MAY NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST 30
ON WED IN CONTINUED CAA ON BACK END OF LOW. DEPENDING ON THE
SNOWFALL COVERAGE...TEMPS ON THURS MAY END UP COLDER BUT KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT.
1656. LargoFl
Quoting 1649. ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC is going with the GFS/NAM..ice/sleet and then turning over into snow..

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AROUND I-95 CORRIDOR TUES
NIGHT WHILE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.
I hope its more snow than ice,less chance of power outages with snow.
1657. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SO MUCH TO DISCUSS WITH SO LITTLE TIME...SO I`LL DO MY BEST TO COVER
ALL THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL THEREFORE ONLY COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPECIFICS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR CUT THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ACROSS AREAS OF THE STATE THAT AREN`T
USED TO SEEING MUCH OF THE WHITE STUFF.

FIRST...LET`S GET TO WHAT`S GOING ON RIGHT NOW THIS MORNING. THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ABSOLUTELY HAULING IT SOUTHWARD...AND IS NOW
ENTERING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HERE SHORTLY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE SCREAMING FROM THE NORTH...AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. WINDS HAVE PREVAILED FROM
15-20 KNOTS WITH PEAK WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATION
SITES UPSTREAM.

THE COLD AIR WILL POUR SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES COULD BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AROUND NOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE STAGE WILL THEN BE SET FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.


AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT TUESDAY MORNING...WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR RETURNS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE USUALLY HAS A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING OVERRUNNING PRECIP
SITUATIONS...AND WE`VE ALREADY WITNESSED THAT QUITE A FEW TIMES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND A WETTER LOOK TO THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE...I`VE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD
TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-59 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A GOOD BUFFER ZONE
BETWEEN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIP MOVING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED THE
MOST...WHICH REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDORS.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IN FACT SET UP UNTIL THE EVENT IS
ONGOING...BUT WE CURRENTLY ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
COMBING THROUGH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SOUNDINGS THROUGH BUFKIT
THIS MORNING...WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
(PIKE,BARBOUR,BULLOCK,RUSSELL) JUST BEFORE NOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A
WARM NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUNDINGS ALOFT DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING
ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT TEMPS RISING
ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. I`M NOT SURE IF I BUY THAT SOLUTION YET...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL BE IN FULL FORCE. ALSO...WITH
PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN IT APPEARS IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE MUCH AT ALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
TROY...EUFAULA...UNION SPRINGS...AND PHENIX CITY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF WE DO ACHIEVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 3
INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE U.S. 80/I-85 CORRIDORS WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS. WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE EVERYONE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
YOU MAKE YOUR TRAVEL PLANS...AS ROADWAYS WILL COULD BECOME VERY
TREACHEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING. KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON OUR HOMEPAGE FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFO AND ALSO MAKE
SURE YOU VISIT ALDOT`S WEBPAGE FOR ROAD CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO
CLANTON...TO WEDOWEE. THIS IS ROUGHLY RIGHT ALONG THE SAME AREAS
THAT WE HAVE OUR WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL REFINE THE AREAS OF GREATEST IMPACT DURING THE
DAY SHIFT TODAY AND ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE
BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AND AREAS ALONG THE I-20/59 CORRIDORS LOOK TO
ONLY ACHIEVE A DUSTING OF SNOW AND THAT`S IF WE CAN GET MORE
OVERRUNNING TO OCCUR THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND GET THE
PRECIP TO FALL THROUGH THE EVER INCREASING DRY AIR COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH. MOST OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE WILL PULL OFF TO OUR EAST
BY 7AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY A FEW FLURRIES COULD POSSIBLY
REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ENDING BY MIDDAY. VERY
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL EXIST AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE
FRIGID...AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. IF
THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST DUE TO THE COOLING EFFECTS OF A SNOWPACK. YET ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS FINALLY RISE
INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE AROUND FOR
A WHILE FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS.
1658. LargoFl
1659. LargoFl
1660. air360
NWs Newport doesnt buy the ice/sleet idea at all.

From their discussion:

GFS and NAM solutions have continued to be warm outliers with respect to
low/middle level thermal profiles...which would produce a warm nose at
800-850mb level for southern coastal areas and produce a mixture of
ip/fzra/sn. Have continued to rely heavily on the
European model (ecmwf)/Canadian/UKMET solutions as they have been more realistic per
location of low and depth of Arctic air in place. GFS/NAM appear to
be out of place in digging of middle level trough to the west and
therefore are producing a more backed/stronger wind profile at 850mb
and in return too strong with warm air advection. In addition...strong dynamic
cooling with intense precipitation rates due to intense fgen/Omega will act
to cool the column. Given all this...have grids all snow...with
chance ice pellets for the coastal areas.
1661. IKE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
539 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS A SERIES OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST REGION. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST CAN EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION MAY
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW NEAR
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FROM SLEET TO SNOW OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-07 9-272000-
/O.CON.KMOB.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOL E...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
539 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY IMPACT MOST
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLEET THEN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE
QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT AS ROADS AND BRIDGES BECOME ICY. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Can anyone tell me how far this polar front is going to push? My forecast here so far shows no freeze coming to Duval or St. Johns County areas. Hard to believe it would stop just north of us. Would appreciate any input. Thanks.
1663. ncstorm
Quoting 1660. air360:
NWs Newport doesnt buy the ice/sleet idea at all.

From their discussion:

GFS and NAM solutions have continued to be warm outliers with respect to
low/middle level thermal profiles...which would produce a warm nose at
800-850mb level for southern coastal areas and produce a mixture of
ip/fzra/sn. Have continued to rely heavily on the
European model (ecmwf)/Canadian/UKMET solutions as they have been more realistic per
location of low and depth of Arctic air in place. GFS/NAM appear to
be out of place in digging of middle level trough to the west and
therefore are producing a more backed/stronger wind profile at 850mb
and in return too strong with warm air advection. In addition...strong dynamic
cooling with intense precipitation rates due to intense fgen/Omega will act
to cool the column. Given all this...have grids all snow...with
chance ice pellets for the coastal areas.


so many differences with meterologists and NWS offices..I guess we will find out tomorrow..

I'm wondering if they are going to have school at all tomorrow and risk the students being on the road if it should start to sleet..
1664. IKE
And finally Mobile,AL....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING]...TODAY A
VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON
BAY...PUSHING A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA TO
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. MORE UPPER ENERGY SWINGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE
DYNAMICS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
TODAY PROGRESSES...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THE ORDINARY...
RAIN...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA.
THE GFS IS THE DRIEST/QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT/PRECIP MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE MOST EXPANSIVE WITH THE PRECIP
COVERAGE. HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE A BIT
BETTER ISENTROPIC COMPONENT MIXES IN WITH THE PRECIP GENERATION. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AND ECMWF FOR TODAY`S FORECAST.

TONIGHT IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING. THE FRONT
SLOWS...BUT NOT THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
GUIDANCE ADVERTISING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING INTO
PLAY. GUIDANCE SOUNDING ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN A DEEP NOSE OF
WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING THE COLD DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA
TONIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOISTEST...THUS THE WETTEST TONIGHT WITH THE
POPS. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS...BY 12Z
TUESDAY...ALL THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SATURATED
COLUMN...ENTIRELY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR THE SAME TIME...AT
KDTS...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PRETTY MUCH SATURATED IN THE LOWEST
8-10K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ALSO GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING. THE
GFS HASN`T QUITE MOISTENED THE LOWEST 3-4K` ABOVE THE SURFACE...YET.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT DYNAMICS APPROACH.

FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING FZRA/IP TO START APPEARING
AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...N OF HIGHWAY 84. CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THE LEADING EDGE OF
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH..ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. AS ONE GOES NORTH FROM THE COAST...ALL RAIN
STARTS TO SEE FZRA MIX IN ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR....THEN IP MIX IN
AS THE WARM AIR ABOVE THE COLD AIR COOLS OFF AND ALLOWS MORE TIME
FOR RE-FREEZING OF MELTING PRECIP...THEN SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN-MOST
SECTIONS OF THE FA. FEEL ANY FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION LATER
TONIGHT UP UNTIL SUNRISE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. /16

A CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
TRANSITIONS IS SET TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF/GFS/
CMC AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN
STATES AND ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A POTENT 120-140 KNOT UPPER
JET PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITHIN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST TUESDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MESS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AFTER REVIEWING A VARIETY OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER DIFFERENT POINTS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER...WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2 AND 5 C BETWEEN
925 AND 750 MB OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL TO NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEND TO THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET DURING THE DAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WHILE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE
OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS. PRECIP
MAY REMAIN MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY.

WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND PRECIP TYPE GRIDS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH THE 03Z SREF
PTYPE SOLUTION. MID LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE
PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION MORE FROM SLEET THEN TO SNOW OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR...WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE ROOM
FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR...WHICH COULD OCCUR TO A QUICKER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AS EVIDENCED BY SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS...SO THE
LATEST FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. FOR NOW...WE SEE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
RICHTON...MONROEVILLE...ANDALUSIA LINE...AND NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST
. A STORM TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES COULD ALSO BE OF IMPACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. IF PRECIP IS MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW/SLEET...
POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES COULD POSE A PROBLEM OVER SOME AREAS.
TRAVEL SHOULD OTHERWISE DETERIORATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...KEPT THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INTACT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALSO ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WHERE TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW 20 DEGREES. /21
Quoting 1652. islander101010:
joe b is calling for next winter to be a bad one too
That's a year out o_0.CWG increasing the snow index.Perhaps a light dusting to a inch.
Upwards to a foot of snow where I live,we shall see!
From the Charleston NWS...

CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN RULE...AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE TEENS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. POWER OUTAGES ARE A CERTAINTY...AND AREA ROADS WILL BE TREACHEROUS.

Looks like the 06z GFS has backed off total precip a little...Still a major winter event here, but not seeing the 2 " of precip in the area any more. A much different GFS model run from 8 hrs ago.

06z...



00z



NEFLWA,
Look at the line of storms on the radars, passing into north Brevard right now. That is the front end of ... well, the front.
I believe that would also be considered the front of the polar vortex, though the cold air is behind it a considerable distance. Also look at the maps of extreme US weather, you can see the frost warning line of counties in white. That also shows you the extent of cold air.
06z NAM is still much more aggressive though...

I thought the weather channel would name it by now.
1671. MahFL
Quoting 1662. NEFLWATCHING:
Can anyone tell me how far this polar front is going to push? My forecast here so far shows no freeze coming to Duval or St. Johns County areas. Hard to believe it would stop just north of us. Would appreciate any input. Thanks.


JAX NWS has Orange Park at 32 F wed am, with a chance of rain.
Thanks, Biff. Not used to seeing it stop short of us this year. They can keep the cold and sleet and ice. I live in Florida for a reason!
1673. MahFL
Quoting 1668. biff4ugo:
I believe that would also be considered the front of the polar vortex, though the cold air is behind it a considerable distance. Also look at the maps of extreme US weather, you can see the frost warning line of counties in white. That also shows you the extent of cold air.


It's not a Polar Vortex, just cold air, a vortex intrusion is different.
Quoting 1670. Haiyan2013:
I thought the weather channel would name it by now.


What's the Weather Channel??
Quoting 1670. Haiyan2013:
I thought the weather channel would name it by now.<

What's the Weather Channel???
Can someone give me the low down for the katy/houston area!
1677. pcola57
While the developing winter system over the SE US is obviously the big story, it's nonetheless interesting to note what's been going on in Alaska. The same wild meander in the jet stream that's been bringing cold Arctic air to the eastern US has been hauling vast quantities of warm air to Alaska. A couple of facts:

--For the month to-date, Fairbanks is averaging a whopping 15F above normal. Over the past week, that average has been 32F above normal, including a massive 41 above normal on Friday. Fairbanks has only seen three days this month with an average below zero.

--Nome is running 13.4F above normal for the month. Seven of the last nine days there have reached above freezing; the temperature never fell below freezing yesterday.

--McGrath appears to have the largest departure, averaging a full 19.1F above normal for the month; the average for the past week there has been 36.1F above normal.

And there doesn't appear to be a lot of relief in sight for at least the next week or so:

alaska
1679. nash36
Good morning all!

Gonna be 70 degrees in Charleston today. Then, the caca hits the fan. Today is the day to prepare.
So judging by the NWS & local meteorologist discussions, it sounds like there is still much uncertainty about the timing & amounts of frozen precipitation in the Charleston, SC area, correct? I live about 25 miles inland from Charleston - anyone have a good idea of what we should expect here?
Quoting 1672. NEFLWATCHING:
Thanks, Biff. Not used to seeing it stop short of us this year. They can keep the cold and sleet and ice. I live in Florida for a reason!
I agree. The Panhandle can have all the snow and sleet and freezing rain and slippery roads and downed power lines it wants. In the meantime, the NWS seven-day forecast for Naples says:

75
62/78
65/75
57/71
60/79
66/81
67/83

Works for me... :-)

New Haven | Overcast | 39 °F
Chester | Partly Cloudy | 39 °F
Meriden | Overcast | 27 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 40.5 °F
1683. nash36
Really concerned about the ice impact.

Our local mets are saying this ice could be very bad.
06Z GFS shows a brief changeover to snow for Jacksonville as the system begins to pull away, probably some good back end moisture.

1685. NCSCguy
I was just looking at some news sites for Charleston and it almost seems like they're not really as concerned as I am about this storm.
Quoting 1685. NCSCguy:
I was just looking at some news sites for Charleston and it almost seems like they're not really as concerned as I am about this storm.
Well that is definitely concerning. You can always tell your neighbors and friends and family in your area about the impending wintry weather, no harm in that.
Quoting 1683. nash36:
Really concerned about the ice impact.

Our local mets are saying this ice could be very bad.


Yep Nash, when the NWS is saying things like "Power outages are a certainty" and "increased likely hood of downed trees" ... You know it's gonna be a rough couple days. Even the big B words will shut down...As much as they HATE to do that.
1688. hydrus
If one looks closely at this chart, there is a bitter cold vort max diving straight south out of the Arctic into Canada then the United States. A sign that the coldest weather may still be yet to come.

Recent sat pic.
My personal opinion...As good as the models are, there is extreme uncertainty as to exactly how much will be ice, how much will be snow, and how much of either there will be in our area. We are positioned where a shift of track by 15-25 miles even makes a huge difference in precip totals.
Well, waking up somewhat disappointed...was hoping the 10"+ GFS model from last night would verify. Looks like the latest runs from all the models are softening the blow a bit and keeping most of the precip SE of the Triangle.

Lets go models, lets start that westward drift again!!
1691. Drakoen
Quoting 1685. NCSCguy:
I was just looking at some news sites for Charleston and it almost seems like they're not really as concerned as I am about this storm.


There doesn't seem to be much concern down here in the panhandle at Tallahassee either. Not even under a watch even even though we are isothermal with you guys at 850mb. I hope people stay of the ice ring that will be setting up shop coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Very dangerous situation unfolding.
1692. nash36
Quoting 1687. StormJunkie:


Yep Nash, when the NWS is saying things like "Power outages are a certainty" and "increased likely hood of downed trees" ... You know it's gonna be a rough couple days. Even the big B words will shut down...As much as they HATE to do that.


No doubt my friend. They will have no choice. Question will be if the big "B's" release early tomorrow, or wait until the last minute. Forecast is calling for the frozen precip to start in the afternoon. I, for one, will NOT be on the roads once it begins.
1694. nash36
A little surprised a warning was issued for Myrtle Beach, but Charleston is still only under a watch.
1695. MahFL
Quoting 1684. GTstormChaserCaleb:
06Z GFS shows a brief changeover to snow for Jacksonville as the system begins to pull away, probably some good back end moisture.



I don't think the blue extends to Jacksonville, probably 30 miles north.
1696. hydrus
This will be a bad storm for a lot of people. For those of you who read my posts. I called for this to happen 10 days ago.
Quoting 1692. nash36:


No doubt my friend. They will have no choice. Question will be if the big "B's" release early tomorrow, or wait until the last minute. Forecast is calling for the frozen precip to start in the afternoon. I, for one, will NOT be on the roads once it begins.


No worries for me, I don't go in until 10pm...It will have been called by then. lol

MYB is now the center of precip totals for many models. There is a lot of uncertainty in this area atm. The latest discussions still using words like "Will refine total accumulations late today and tomorrow" We are on a very, very fine line. Either way it will be nasty; but the question is how extreme.
1698. LargoFl
Quoting 1688. hydrus:
If one looks closely at this chart, there is a bitter cold vort max diving straight south out of the Arctic into Canada then the United States. A sign that the coldest weather may still be yet to come.

Recent sat pic.
bring it on down lets get this over with
From Accuweather for Tallahasse on Wednesday:


Hi 39
RealFeel 33
Precipitation 71%
Day

NESW
N 9 mph
Gusts: 15 mph
Cold; a wintry mix in the morning followed by a mix of snow, sleet and rain in the afternoon
Max UV Index: 1 (Low)
Thunderstorms: 3%
Precipitation: 0.32 in
Rain: 0.26 in
Snow: 0.17 in
Ice: 0.04 in
Hours of Precipitation: 6 hrs
Hours of Rain: 5 hrs
1701. hydrus
Quoting 1699. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
bring it on down lets get this over with
Yep. We have been lucky here except for the bitter cold and high winds. I truly hope that we continue this precip free pattern. The ice storms here are very dangerous to the choppy mountain roads...with no guard rails...
1702. LargoFl
Fog rolling in here on the coast


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EST Monday 27 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:29.6 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:5 miles
Temperature:11.5°F
Dewpoint:5.4°F
Humidity:76%
Wind:WSW 27 mph
Wind Chill: -9

1704. LargoFl
1705. Drakoen
NAM 12z so far is weaker with the southern stream energy
1706. LargoFl
Quoting 1701. hydrus:
Yep. We have been lucky here except for the bitter cold and high winds. I truly hope that we continue this precip free pattern. The ice storms here are very dangerous to the choppy mountain roads...with no guard rails...
been a long cold winter hydrus been snow on the grounds and cold since start of nov and it looks like it will continue till the end of feb

1708. GetReal
National Weather Service New Orleans la
426 am CST Monday Jan 27 2014

Short term...
Arctic cold front is moving rapidly southeast at a measured 40
kts on satellite imagery...extending roughly from east
Tennessee...to Shreveport...into central Texas. Projecting the
frontal speed places the front through much if not all of the
forecast area by 18z today. So far everything appears to be on
track for what should be a significant winter weather event
onsetting late tonight and then really get going much of Tuesday
before tapering Wednesday morning. Given the large degree of
spread in different precipitation types and combinations...it may
be best to give an areal timeline of approximate onsets/endings
for various locations.

Kmcb...frontal passage around 8 am...onset of freeze midnight...ending 11 am
Thursday...duration 59 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 4 am Tuesday
ending around 6 am Wednesday.

Kbtr...frontal passage around 830 am...onset of freeze 2 am...ending noon Thursday...
duration 61 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 6 am Tuesday ending
around 6 am Wednesday.

Khdc/kasd...frontal passage around 9 am...onset of freeze 5 am...ending
noon Thursday... duration 55 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 6 am
Tuesday ending around 7 am Wednesday.

Knew/kmsy...frontal passage around 10 am...onset of freeze 10 am Tuesday...ending
10 am Thursday... duration 48 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 7 am
Tuesday ending around 9 am Wednesday.

Kgpt/kpql...frontal passage around 10 am...onset of freeze 6 am
Tuesday...ending noon Thursday... duration 54 hours. Onset of winter
precipitation around 8 am Tuesday ending around 10 am Wednesday.

Note the freeze duration may not be consecutive hours as a few
locations may breifly warm to around 33 Tuesday afternoon for an hour
or two...but the overall grip of the Arctic air should be close to
these durations before warm air advection onsets later Thursday.
1709. LargoFl
1710. hydrus
Quoting 1703. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EST Monday 27 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:29.6 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:5 miles
Temperature:11.5°F
Dewpoint:5.4°F
Humidity:76%
Wind:WSW 27 mph
Wind Chill: -9

I dig your avatar Keep..I love Astronomy..:)
1711. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC

From the Scientific Forecaster Discussion in Charleston this morning...

"Given the potential for significant impacts...some potentially lasting for days... a Winter Storm Watch has been maintained for all of southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. However... based on the latest expected impacts we have segmented the watch into various different groupings... and we'll definitely need to consider upgrading to a warning at some point by late today. "

I haven't seen that particular wording before - what exactly does it mean? That some parts of the area will get warnings and others may not?
1713. LargoFl
This nasty bit from NWS Chicago:

EVEN IN THE JANUARY 6-7 BLAST OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR...THE SYNOPTIC
SET-UP WAS NOT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS LOWS
WERE NOT AS COLD AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN. JANUARY 16 2009 IS A
DECENT ANALOG FOR THE SURFACE SET-UP TONIGHT AND THAT NIGHT HAD
THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE ENTIRE 2000S SO FAR...INCLUDING -25 AT RFD
AND -18 AT ORD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDING TO
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLEAR...WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY AT OR EVEN COLDER THAN THE MORNING OF 1/16/09. 850
MB/925 MB TEMPS TOMORROW AM COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THEN. ALSO EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO AVERAGE 5 TO 8 KTS...WHICH IS
ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE AT IN 09. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES DURING THE
DAYSHIFT ON WINDS DECOUPLING FURTHER THAN THIS...THIS WILL
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE FORECAST LOWS. OVERALL...DID NOT
MAKE HUGE CHANCES...BUT TWEAKED A FEW OUTLYING LOCATIONS AND
FAVORED COLD SPOTS DOWN A DEGREE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CHICAGO
TO SEE A 20 BELOW ZERO READING FOR ONLY THE 16TH TIME
...BUT KEPT
ORD AT -19 FOR NOW. DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS...AIR TEMPS IN MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS OF 30-40 BELOW. BEST
ADVICE IS TO PUT OFF PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY AND SPEND AS LITTLE TIME OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

(Here are some amazing Chicagoland stats for this wild winter.)
Quoting 1710. hydrus:
I dig your avatar Keep..I love Astronomy..:)
I call him existence
I think temperatures in D.C have just about peaked for today.I expect they will start to fall around mid afternoon through the rest of the evening..and that means a re-freeze.Ice will be everywhere from puddles that melted from the snow.I suspect that the snow currently on the ground which I suspect will not melt much will still be around until about Friday when temps start to moderate in the 40's.
Here is the latest (and link) from Tallahassee NWS in the Wintry mix event for the Gulf Coast and Florida:

Event:

Type(s) – Rain, freezing rain, snow, and/or sleet, along with a prolonged period of frigid temperatures/wind chills

Timing –Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning
Frigid air will be moving into the region Tuesday & Wednesday on brisk northerly winds. Light rain Tuesday afternoon will gradually change to freezing rain Tuesday Night, possibly mixing with snow and/or sleet later in the night and Wednesday Morning. This is more likely where we have issued a “Winter Storm Watch” (upper right image). However, a wintry mix is still possible in places like Tallahassee, Panama City, and Valdosta, especially Wednesday Morning. The precipitation will gradually end from northwest to southeast during the day on Wednesday- followed by a very cold night.

Impacts:
Freezing rain – up to a quarter of an inch, with isolated higher amounts possible in the watch area
Snow/sleet - accumulations of a quarter to half an inch, with isolated higher amounts in the watch area
Travel problems – icy roads Tuesday night through Wednesday, especially in the watch area
Power outages – heavier icing could cause significant power outages
Elevated surfaces and bridges are more prone to freezing
Even small accumulations of ice/snow (outside the watch area) can create significant travel impacts


Link

The MAIN thing for folks in these parts to remember is that these conditions (freezing rain) will make the roads slippery and dangerous in terms of swerving and breaking............You really need to stay off the roads and I-10 for the duration of this even if you can.
Quoting 1716. washingtonian115:
I think temperatures in D.C have just about peaked for today.I expect they will start to fall around mid afternoon through the rest of the evening..and that means a re-freeze.Ice will be everywhere from puddles that melted from the snow.I suspect that the snow currently on the ground which I suspect will not melt much will still be around until about Friday when temps start to moderate in the 40's.
gonna nose dive wash bitter cold we are forecasted to drop to -21c tonight with chills of -31c to -33c
1719. LargoFl
1720. LargoFl
Freezing Rain Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...FREEZING RAIN NEAR IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER THIS MORNING...

...HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...

.FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...CAUSING THE ICE TO
MELT. COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.

Back in the day it used to be dreaming of a White Christmas............Seems likes (over the past several decades) that January and February are becoming the most likely months for many parts of the US............
1722. Drakoen
NAM 12z very icy for the southeast through 36 hours.
1723. LargoFl
Someone left the Fridge door open.........
Quoting 1718. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna nose dive wash bitter cold we are forecasted to drop to -21c tonight with chills of -31c to -33c
I walked out with a small coat.Not the big one when temps mean big business outside.I brought my hat and gloves just in case I walk out the office this afternoon with a little "surprise" attack from the cold as winds will likely switch directions and pick up from the north.
1725. nash36
Quoting 1722. Drakoen:
NAM 12z very icy for the southeast through 36 hours.


Hating the NAM solution. Bah.
1726. LargoFl
Winter Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE FRONT THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION SOUTHEAST
OF THE NC COAST TO SPREAD HEAVY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NC BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME HEAVY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW
NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS WOULD IN EFFECT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
SOMEWHAT HERE.


12z NAM at 36 hours.

1728. Torito
... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 1 am to 10 am EST Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Wind Chill Advisory... which is in effect from 1 am to
10 am EST Tuesday.

* Wind chills... 10 to 15 below zero.

* Temperatures... single digits to lower teens late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.

* Winds... northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.


* Impacts... low wind chills may lead to hypothermia or frost bite
on exposed skin.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.



Quoting 1727. Tropicsweatherpr:
12z NAM at 36 hours.

Now we're talking :).I'm off.Maybe the models might switch at the last minute.
1730. Drakoen
Quoting 1725. nash36:


Hating the NAM solution. Bah.


Pretty sure you guys are going to get ice no matter how you slice it. The biggest change i've notice is the dive in the northern stream energy which should advect in cold temperatures.
1731. hydrus
The pattern is forecast to go zonal for a period, and then get cold and stormy. It will be a wild winter for many I believe.
Quoting 1725. nash36:


Hating the NAM solution. Bah.


Funny how I've said many, many times..."put the NAM away until winter"

1733. LargoFl
Not our storm tues-wens central florida,just a slight cool down wens..
1734. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
426 am CST Monday Jan 27 2014

Short term...
Arctic cold front is moving rapidly southeast at a measured 40
kts on satellite imagery...extending roughly from east
Tennessee...to Shreveport...into central Texas. Projecting the
frontal speed places the front through much if not all of the
forecast area by 18z today. So far everything appears to be on
track for what should be a significant winter weather event
onsetting late tonight and then really get going much of Tuesday
before tapering Wednesday morning. Given the large degree of
spread in different precipitation types and combinations...it may
be best to give an areal timeline of approximate onsets/endings
for various locations.

Kmcb...frontal passage around 8 am...onset of freeze midnight...ending 11 am
Thursday...duration 59 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 4 am Tuesday
ending around 6 am Wednesday.

Kbtr...frontal passage around 830 am...onset of freeze 2 am...ending noon Thursday...
duration 61 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 6 am Tuesday ending
around 6 am Wednesday.

Khdc/kasd...frontal passage around 9 am...onset of freeze 5 am...ending
noon Thursday... duration 55 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 6 am
Tuesday ending around 7 am Wednesday.

Knew/kmsy...frontal passage around 10 am...onset of freeze 10 am Tuesday...ending
10 am Thursday... duration 48 hours. Onset of winter precipitation around 7 am
Tuesday ending around 9 am Wednesday.

Kgpt/kpql...frontal passage around 10 am...onset of freeze 6 am
Tuesday...ending noon Thursday... duration 54 hours. Onset of winter
precipitation around 8 am Tuesday ending around 10 am Wednesday.

Note the freeze duration may not be consecutive hours as a few
locations may breifly warm to around 33 Tuesday afternoon for an hour
or two...but the overall grip of the Arctic air should be close to
these durations before warm air advection onsets later Thursday.

Long term...
much of the focus was on the complex short-term. Overall trends
are for warmer conditions to begin Thursday and continue into the
weekend. May have some fog issues once warm advection gets better
established later this week. A weaker Continental cold front
approaches Saturday to bring rain chances back into the picture
for the weekend but with considerably warmer temperatures. 24/rr
1736. hydrus
Potential for a Nor,Easter..maybe...

1737. jpsb
Quoting 1641. LargoFl:
from the warnings it looks like the closer you live to the coast the more likely you get hit with alot of ice and freezing rain..from texas to NC..wow...hope not too many power outages..stay safe folks.
Happily my wood burner does not require electricity. I am hoping to get to plow some snow in the se Texas.
12z NAM at 48 hours.

1739. jpsb
Quoting 1678. Neapolitan:
While the developing winter system over the SE US is obviously the big story, it's nonetheless interesting to note what's been going on in Alaska. The same wild meander in the jet stream that's been bringing cold Arctic air to the eastern US has been hauling vast quantities of warm air to Alaska.


I read the other day that the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is growing slowly this winter, not sure I buy that, but it is an interesting data point if true.

I appears the "north pole" has moved to south Canada.
1740. Patrap


Quoting 1738. Tropicsweatherpr:
12z NAM at 48 hours.



Man it is borderline here. slight shift makes huge difference.
Quoting 1739. jpsb:


I read the other day that the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is growing slowly this winter, not sure I buy that, but it is an interesting data point if true.

I appears the "north pole" has moved to south Canada.


Quoting 1678. Neapolitan:
While the developing winter system over the SE US is obviously the big story, it's nonetheless interesting to note what's been going on in Alaska. The same wild meander in the jet stream that's been bringing cold Arctic air to the eastern US has been hauling vast quantities of warm air to Alaska. A couple of facts:

--For the month to-date, Fairbanks is averaging a whopping 15F above normal. Over the past week, that average has been 32F above normal, including a massive 41 above normal on Friday. Fairbanks has only seen three days this month with an average below zero.

--Nome is running 13.4F above normal for the month. Seven of the last nine days there have reached above freezing; the temperature never fell below freezing yesterday.

--McGrath appears to have the largest departure, averaging a full 19.1F above normal for the month; the average for the past week there has been 36.1F above normal.

And there doesn't appear to be a lot of relief in sight for at least the next week or so:

alaska



That looks a lot like January 1977:


1745. LargoFl
you could be right Hydrus.................
1746. hydrus
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2014

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2014 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2014

***Another round of bitterly cold weather***

***Winter storm for the Deep South and Southeast U.S.***

***Dry in the Southwest and light rain for the Northwest***


A very strong cold front will be bringing frigid conditions back to the
central and eastern U.S. for the beginning of the work week. The airmass
and the associated surface high pressure with it is literally coming from
the North Pole and heading nearly due south into the central U.S. by
Tuesday! Widespread subzero lows are expected north of the Ohio River by
this time, and subfreezing highs are expected well into the Deep South.

This front will reach the Gulf of Mexico and develop a wave of low
pressure along it. Moisture flowing north over the boundary will create
interesting weather to say the least for the Deep South and into the
Southeast U.S. for Tuesday and Wednesday. A band of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain is expected to materialize by Tuesday afternoon near the
Central Gulf Coast, and become heavier over eastern North Carolina and
into South Carolina with the very cold air in place. This rare winter
storm will make many people who love snow very happy.

For California and the Inter-Mountain West, a much quieter weather pattern
will prevail for the next few days as high pressure stays in charge. This
is providing pleasant temperatures for this time of year. Signs of change
will be arriving to the Pacific Northwest by Monday night with showers and
high elevation snow as the upper level ridge finally begins to break down
and allow moist flow from the Pacific to move inland.

D. Hamrick
1747. LargoFl
jpsb~ I was just looking at the Arctic & was startled. There is even less ice around the North Pole than last week. Ice concentrations are saying a little less than 2 ft think but real time satellite..left me a bit alarmed..

1749. Patrap
By the time the Human Race as a whole figures out what Science has, that the Arctic is Lost if we don't stop the Co2 Caused warming, it will likely be way too late.

Come Summer 2014 up dere, the numbers may be das kaput
1750. hydrus
Quoting 1745. LargoFl:
you could be right Hydrus.................
I am referring from 200 hours on.
1751. LargoFl
1752. jpsb
Quoting 1743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Wow, that is pretty impressive snow cover for North Hemisphere. I read the new sea ice is not real thick this year so the new ice will melt quickly. We'll see, there is so much BS in the media re: climate I seldom believe anything I read.
1753. hydrus
Quoting 1749. Patrap:
By the time the Human Race as a whole figures out what Science has, that the Arctic is Lost if we don't stop the Co2 Caused warming, it will likely be way too late.
The real problem in my opinion is many dont care.
1754. Patrap
If ones stay's away from "media stories" and uses jus the Science of AGW, the case for any doubt wanes in a Hour.
Can't get over what they're saying on the SFD

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
856 am EST Mon Jan 27 2014

Although model trends for temperatures have
edged up slightly, our forecast grids still support a wintry mix of
precipitation over portions of our forecast area for the Tuesday night and
Wednesday time frame. Also during this period, HPC has backed off
quite a bit on quantitative precipitation forecast amounts but we will use a model blend for quantitative precipitation forecast
which still shows amounts to support the Winter Storm Watch that we
have in place. Thus, we just made minor cosmetic adjustments to the
previous forecast package leaving the current outline of the Winter
Storm Watch untouched. This means we should see a gradual changeover
(from northwest to southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning) from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to finally
snow. Places north of a line from Panama City to Tifton stand the
best chance of accumulating snow/sleet, though a dusting is still
possible farther south and east. The disconcerting part of the
forecast is the potential for significant ice accumulations. Much of
our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with isolated
higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little
infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen
precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropical
cyclone...perhaps more.
Downed power lines & large tree limbs would
undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads.
Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather
clothing risk hypothermia.
1756. help4u
Nothing new under the sun.Hope everyone has a blessed day,stay warm and enjoy your day.
Quoting 1744. WPBHurricane05:



That looks a lot like January 1977:



Similar:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalyzer/output/plot_ 1895.jpg

But missing some of the heat in the Arctic, as well as the western CONUS.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/output/T2_ anom_satellite1.jpg*Caveat different color scale.

Overall jet stream pattern does appear similar.

If we use 1977 as an analogue year, the troughiness reduced in February and temperatures moderated a bit across the CONUS:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalyzer/output/plot_ 1571.jpg
1758. Patrap
All the relevant Science is easily found a click away here.

wunderground climate change page

Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Quoting 1678. Neapolitan:
While the developing winter system over the SE US is obviously the big story, it's nonetheless interesting to note what's been going on in Alaska. The same wild meander in the jet stream that's been bringing cold Arctic air to the eastern US has been hauling vast quantities of warm air to Alaska.

And Svalbard Norway :


The 30 day anomaly for Longyearbyen, Svalbard is now at +10.1 C. That is truly mindgobbling! Also at the smaller island, Hopen (situated south-east of Svalbard), the anomaly is lingering Close to + 10 C above normal, while the status at Jan Mayen, situated between Island and Svalbard is having "only" +7 C above normal.

I notice that seaice the last month have crept closer upon Svalbard, but like last Winter, Sea Ice most likely won't encircle this Archipelago of Islands this Winter either. On the other hand, a long Cold spring is still able to stir Things up!

Here are some links:

Link
Link
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | January 27, 2014 at 10:25
1760. ncstorm
Can we please leave the GW discussion till after the storm..there are millions of people who could be affected by it..not trying to start any argument just pleading for a break..

thanks..
1761. Patrap
77' twas a very good year,

Saw Zep, turned 17, and Disco was waning.

Also on wunderground

Snowstorms in the South: An Historical Perspective

By: Christopher C. Burt, 1:37 AM CST on January 12, 2011


Snowstorms in the Southeast and Deep South of the United States: An Historical Perspective

Atlanta, Georgia was amazed recently when 4-6” of snow (and ice) accumulated this past Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, snow fell on Christmas Day (officially 1.4”) in the Atlanta area as well. So how unusual is this? Of course, it is unusual but not close to record-breaking snowfall anywhere in the Southeast. Huntsville, Alabama recorded 8.9” and this was their 3rd heaviest accumulation on record but still a long way from the all-time record of 17.1” set on New Years Eve 1963-1964. Atlanta’s official 4.4” accumulation is also distant from their record of 11.2” set on January 7, 1940.
1762. Patrap
We will discuss the topic, as we see fit.

Feel free to ignore anything.

Thanx
Quoting 1739. jpsb:


I read the other day that the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is growing slowly this winter, not sure I buy that, but it is an interesting data point if true.

I appears the "north pole" has moved to south Canada.

Quoting 1752. jpsb:

Wow, that is pretty impressive snow cover for North Hemisphere. I read the new sea ice is not real thick this year so the new ice will melt quickly. We'll see, there is so much BS in the media re: climate I seldom believe anything I read.

In almost no conceivable way is the Arctic sea ice cover comparable to a few decades ago. The same %extent of today is not comparable to the same %extent of even 2 decades ago. The ice thickness is about as low as it goes, and it melts much quicker in the spring/summer. So no, there is no "growing slowly" in any climatic, meaningful sense.
1764. Patrap


"Departure of temperature from average for December 2013, the 3rd warmest December for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and eastern Russia, where temperature anomalies exceeded 5C (9F) across a large swath of the country. Record warmth was also present in various areas of coastal and southern Africa, and sections of southern South America.

It was much cooler than average across parts of central and eastern Canada, the west coast of the United States, southern Greenland, part of southeastern Asia, and most of the Middle East, with record cold temperatures (more than 5C / 9F below average) observed around eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) ."
1765. Patrap
1766. help4u
People waiting on propane in indiana up to 2 weeks,plans for global warming already in energy policy with rolling blackouts and possible human deaths due to destruction of our power grid.we will not have to worry about dying from heat but from dying by freezing because of destruction of coal and natural gas policies by big government.Remember the ones that line there pockets with our money will alaways be nice and warm.The global warming stuff is really going to throw the world into poverty and unimaginable suffering caused by communist ,socialist enviromental policy.
Quoting 1764. Patrap:


"Departure of temperature from average for December 2013, the 3rd warmest December for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and eastern Russia, where temperature anomalies exceeded 5C (9F) across a large swath of the country. Record warmth was also present in various areas of coastal and southern Africa, and sections of southern South America.

It was much cooler than average across parts of central and eastern Canada, the west coast of the United States, southern Greenland, part of southeastern Asia, and most of the Middle East, with record cold temperatures (more than 5C / 9F below average) observed around eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) ."


Yeah Pat... I can really feel the warm weather. Especially these past 3 weeks. Heck let just call this the tropics and call it a day. Wow, Going to put my Top down on my jeep hold on... NOT.
Kindness and a little courtesy goes a long ways. An ignore button helps. Exciting times for us in the south. Pardon us for wanting to talk about it.
The science is settled. Down with the AGW deniers. They will go into Al Gore's pit of fire. As a sign of solidarity, let us all AGW believers go out for the 24 hour swimsuit march tomorrow. 24 hours of marching on your favorite swimsuit in Chicago and any northern state of your choosing and even the south to shut the naysayers mouths.
Checking in from midtown Savannah. Been reminding everyone that Ice =/= Snow as many that I know are expecting it to maybe just snow...

From the CHS Disco at 0659...

"TUESDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE PEAK OF THE
WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS IN A HIGHLY FAVORED
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCATION FOR WINTER STORMS. THE CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL PROVIDE A NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FEED
OF COLD/DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS NEEDED FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ALOFT...A POWERFUL
UPPER JET APPROACHING OF 150 KT OR GREATER WILL STRETCH FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE LOCAL AREA POSITIONED IN
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE RESULTING JET FORCING WITH
IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BECOME MODERATE OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. VARYING THERMAL PROFILES RESULTING FROM A
NUMBER OF DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES POINT TO A HIGHLY
COMPLICATED P-TYPE FORECAST...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW
STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY EAST/SE TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS...AND ALSO HOW MUCH
ICING PERSISTS. OUR LATEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REACH 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NW TIER...WITH UP TO 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ICE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CHANGEOVER
IS SLOWER. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SOME
POTENTIALLY LASTING FOR DAYS...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...BASED ON
THE LATEST EXPECTED IMPACTS WE HAVE SEGMENTED THE WATCH INTO
VARIOUS DIFFERENT GROUPINGS...AND WE/LL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT SOME POINT BY LATE TODAY."
1771. Patrap
I'm sure we will see a new entry soon with Dr. Masters take on the US Eastern Cold smackdown.

I'll have a new post on Monday discussing the impressive cold blast setting up for the eastern half of the U.S.

Jeff Masters






1772. air360
Quoting 1760. ncstorm:
Can we please leave the GW discussion till after the storm..there are millions of people who could be affected by it..not trying to start any argument just pleading for a break..

thanks..


amen
1773. Patrap

1774. Patrap
Anchorage Weather
Weather Station
Anchorage Merrill (PAMR)
Elevation 135 ft


Clear
Temperature
33 °F
Feels Like 29 °F
1775. help4u
Releveant science today is changing temps and placing thermometers on blacktop!!Relevant science is science only you agree with!Noaa forcast for jan was way above normal temps 90%of US.Not even close and i am suppose to believe them when all you have to do is go back and look at the cycles in weather and see there is nothing new; has happened before.Super computers is only as good as info put in.Crap put in =crap put out.Look at a map with same factors and weather repeats itself.God made a world that will sustain itself and man will never control the weather.Sorry their is someone much bigger than mankind in control.
Quoting 1752. jpsb:

Wow, that is pretty impressive snow cover for North Hemisphere.

Climatologically-speaking, it is probably not as impressive as you'd think.

Here's the last 30yrs from the NCAR reanalysis:
1777. Patrap


Quoting 1766. help4u:
The global warming stuff is really going to throw the world into poverty and unimaginable suffering caused by communist ,socialist enviromental policy.


....You mean caused by unregulated industries and corrupt (R)'s that care about corporate and/or personal profits but not the environment or the humans inhabiting it?
Quoting 1769. CaneHunter031472:
The science is settled. Down with the AGW deniers. They will go into Al Gore's pit of fire. As a sign of solidarity, let us all AGW believers go out for the 24 hour swimsuit march tomorrow. 24 hours of marching on your favorite swimsuit in Chicago and any northern state of your choosing and even the south to shut the naysayers mouths.
What a fantastic idea, because you know, a global average temperature rise of a couple degrees Celsius will totally turn winter into summer.
Quoting 1775. help4u:
Releveant science today is changing temps and placing thermometers on blacktop!!Relevant science is science only you agree with!Noaa forcast for jan was way above normal temps 90%of US.Not even close...

I don't think you understand how the CPC forecasts work. They have a few models, but it is mostly based on climate oscillations and analogues. Then they tell you which category (lowest 33%, middle 33%, or upper 33%) is favored. It is not a direct forecast for any particular category. Unless you are seeing a 60% probability or higher, no one category is actually "forecasted," it just is shown as slightly favored, based upon the things I mentioned above. Obviously analogues and climate indeces like ENSO have uncertainty when their teleconnections are applied to individual years, let alone individual months. I think you have some reading to do to catch up on this before you start your next rant.

CPC skill scores for monthly forecasts:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/verificatio n/land_air/all_ranges/conus/verif_web_tool/verif_t emp_manual_01m_01m_grid2deg_heidke_time_all.png
You can see that over the long term, CPC does have a positive skill (meaning they add value to the forecast over climatology or models alone). Recently, their skill has been negative, implying that that a forecast of climatology, or possibly even opposite of the CPC forecast, would have been closer to accurate. The basis of their forecasts, such as the climate indeces like ENSO, have not been a good predictor over this time period.
1781. Dakster
Quoting 1711. ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC



Good graphic, I like it. Can be adapted to almost any emergency. As most of those items you should always have on hand anyways, just in case of any natural disaster.

The things that are really important for us in the South are the emergency heat source, assuming you don't already have an alternate heat source that doesn't require power and the extra clothing in a vehicle. A small shovel, rope/chain and Salt/Sand/Kitty litter are others but not as important as being able to stay warm. If you go off the beaten path you probably already have the shovel and rope/chain. Most important is note that the people that walk away from their vehicle during the event are the ones the police find deceased and the ones that stayed with the vehicle are the ones found alive. Signal flares isn't on the list, but that is good idea to have around as well. I also like road flares as it make starting a roadside fire easy. (Obviously, not the glow sticks)

The wind-up radios that have cell phone charging capability are nice and you don't have to worry about having good batteries around. And some of the new wood stoves have that capability too, even the small camping ones like BioLite.
1782. ricderr
God made a world that will sustain itself



mind showing me anywhere in the bible that confirms this?


take the tin god show someplace else bro


that's once
1784. Dakster
Quoting 1782. ricderr:
God made a world that will sustain itself



mind showing me anywhere in the bible that confirms this?


It's in there,

"And on the 8th Day, God created Global Warming denialists."

QUOTE:
"December 2013 was the globe's 3rd warmest December since records began in 1880..."

I do not mean any disrespect to Dr Masters, but should we not consider the latter part of the statement, too? After all, that's barely a hundred years compared to how ever many people think the age of the earth is, right? Quite a lot of missing data. This also seems to be the point when people will point out that cold here does not negate warmth elsewhere. It is always whatever supports things at the time, as I don't believe anyone makes a deal about it for GW when there is a big chill in the Eu or Russia, huh?

I hear weathercasters crying about "Polar Vortex 2", here, & such like, with the cold wave entering the South this week. They expect temps to stay below freezing in the N Houston area for possibly as much as 2 - 3 days & with possible snow, sleet & freezing rain "worse" than last Friday (both rare).

Well, honestly, I can remember that, in the early to mid 1980s, temps in central Texas did not get above freezing for about an entire week on one cold snap.
Also, just recently, we had some warm temps again, as usual in January, despite the recent cold. In central Texas there is a common tendency that January will produce periods of really warm, springlike weather in between the cold spells of December & February. People on radio talk like we might almost be to spring planting if we get past this upcoming cold freeze, but history tells me otherwise. February brings some quite cold temps here, again.

SUGGESTION: what if this record cold in December Dr Masters talks about is simply like that, with a bit of change in timing? It could be like if the January warm spells in Texas happened a few weeks different in placement. Now, what if all this kind of thing happens....in a time-frame of hundreds or thousands of years, a slight shift? Would it really be SO abnormal simply because of a slight difference like that? After all, when talking about many thousands of years, what is seen as a small or large period of time could really not be so small or large at all.

Just food for thought, and I am sure it will get jumped on and bashed by people, but at least it is honest thinking. As for me, I think the earth could use some warming up. In the USA & many developed nations, people are often so used to the nice life (compared to most of the world) that they don't suffer from the cold. Yet, a lot of poor people could not bear to live in colder climes due to their poverty. It takes $$ for warm clothes, warm housing, untility bills being high in cold climates, etc. If the earth warms up -- it used to be tropical way up north, you know -- then many more poor people might afford a place to live that is not unbearably cold and could raise crops up north, too.

I think we underestimate God, mother nature, etc. too much -- the earth has changed before. Things will even out. Nature will even out. Maybe patterns will change, but as plants & creatures adapted before, they will again, and perhaps this will create greater biodiversity again -- something that has been dwindling. We do all like "biodiversity", right? So, that can be a good thing, as it could lead to new & good changes in plant & animal life and benefits for mankind, too. See, GW is good.

1786. MahFL
Quoting 1721. weathermanwannabe:
Back in the day it used to be dreaming of a White Christmas............Seems likes (over the past several decades) that January and February are becoming the most likely months for many parts of the US............


That's because of global warming. In times past people would ice skate on the frozen river Thames in London.
Quoting 1760. ncstorm:
Can we please leave the GW discussion till after the storm..there are millions of people who could be affected by it..not trying to start any argument just pleading for a break..

thanks..
Say, did you happen to read the current topic? Look at what Dr. Masters wrote; you might be surprised...
1788. hydrus
1789. ncstorm
hour 36 on the 12z GFS

Quoting 1785. WalkingInTheSun:
QUOTE:
"December 2013 was the globe's 3rd warmest December since records began in 1880..."

I think we underestimate God, mother nature, etc. too much --



I think we overestimate God too much. For a science related board, it sure is strange to me to bring up an idea with ZERO evidence again and again and again, and then tell us we underestimate "his" power.... take that crap to sunday school
Quoting 1788. hydrus:


Wow... that looks like a lot of ice forecasted in that model... any idea when CHS and other local offices may start posting warnings?
1793. MahFL
Quoting 1785. WalkingInTheSun:
QUOTE:
"December 2013 was the globe's 3rd warmest December since records began in 1880..."



We humans are a recent addition to the population of Earth, come cold or heat one thing is for sure the Earth will survive. As for Humans, who knows what the long term future holds ?
As for the whining about rising sea levels, they will rise or fall and there is nothing Humans can do about it.
Talk AGW ....your punishment will be to be locked up in a padded cell with Joe Bastardi........ lol
we need a new blog doc whenever yer ready
Quoting 1793. MahFL:


We humans are a recent addition to the population of Earth, come cold or heat one thing is for sure the Earth will survive. As for Humans, who knows what the long term future holds ?
As for the whining about rising sea levels, they will rise or fall and there is nothing Humans can do about it.
Well, there is something we're doing about sea levels: making them rise. And the 4,000,000 metric tons of pure CO2 we pump into the environment every hour of every day ensure that's going to continue well into the future. I imagine the several hundred million people who will be directly affected by those higher sea levels over the coming decades will very likely disagree with your assessment.
1797. nash36
Quoting 1792. carolinabelle:


Wow... that looks like a lot of ice forecasted in that model... any idea when CHS and other local offices may start posting warnings?


Should be anytime now.....I would imagine the watch will turn to a warning by this afternoon for CHS and surrounding areas.
1798. Dakster
Quoting 1795. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we need a new blog doc whenever yer ready


What is with the new Avatar and what is it?

Clicking on it doesn't help me either.
1800. scott39
Is there a model showing up to 6 inches of snow in upper Mobile county?
1801. ncstorm
According to our NWS..conditions should start detoriating late tonight..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WILL WAIT ON UPDATED GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUDS AND TEMP
CURVE FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. INITIAL GLANCE AT 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT WILL MORE FULLY EXAMINE THIS BEFORE THE NEXT
UPDATE.

1802. air360
Quoting 1801. ncstorm:
According to our NWS..conditions should start detoriating late tonight..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WILL WAIT ON UPDATED GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUDS AND TEMP
CURVE FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. INITIAL GLANCE AT 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT WILL MORE FULLY EXAMINE THIS BEFORE THE NEXT
UPDATE.



"precip" is so general....rain..snow...freezing rain..sleet....what could it be!? lol
Quoting 1798. Dakster:


What is with the new Avatar and what is it?

Clicking on it doesn't help me either.


existence and the process of thought



it was peds blinking eyes avatar that made me change it I think it was the blinking eyes mostly
1804. ncstorm
Quoting 1802. air360:


"precip" is so general....rain..snow...freezing rain..sleet....what could it be!? lol


its so pretty here right now..hard to imagine we are looking at some serious weather in the next 48 hours..
1805. Dakster
Thanks Keep.

Can anyone show me how to embed a youtube into the blog. I copy the embed code, url and nothing seems to work?
Quoting 1805. Dakster:
Thanks Keep.

Can anyone show me how to embed a youtube into the blog. I copy the embed code, url and nothing seems to work?
make sure you check use old embed code before ya copy the code to embed
1807. auburn
Quoting 1805. Dakster:
Thanks Keep.

Can anyone show me how to embed a youtube into the blog. I copy the embed code, url and nothing seems to work?


Be sure to check"use old embed code"
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1809. Patrap
Quoting 1805. Dakster:
Thanks Keep.

Can anyone show me how to embed a youtube into the blog. I copy the embed code, url and nothing seems to work?


Use the "Old embed" code and bypass the image button, post embed code directly in comment box, post.
1810. Grothar