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December 2009: 4th or 8th warmest December on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 AM GMT on January 17, 2010

The globe recorded its eighth warmest December since record keeping began in 1880, and 2009 tied with 2006 as the fifth warmest year on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated December 2009 as the 4th warmest December on record, and the year 2009 tied with 2007 as the second warmest year on record. NOAA rated December 2009 ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1997, and land temperatures as the 31st warmest on record. The anomalously cool conditions over much of northern Asian and North American land areas may be associated with the near record December snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere land areas--2nd most on record, behind 1985. Snow cover records go back to 1967. The December global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville and RSS data sets.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December, 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

One interesting note: the NASA global average temperature for 2009 was .57°C above average. NOAA's was .56°C above average. These temperatures were just .06°C below the all-time hottest year on record, 2005. The 11-year global sunspot cycle causes a variation of 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. We are currently at a deep minimum of the solar cycle, so we would have set a new global temperature record had we been at the maximum of the solar cycle. The other global temperature data set, the UK HadCRUT3 data, is not yet available for 2009. This data set is the one most often quoted by global warming skeptics, since it says that 1998 was the warmest year on record. However, HadCRUT3 fills in a huge area of missing data in the Arctic with the average temperature from the rest of the globe. This is bound to cause an underestimate of the global temperature, since the Arctic has warmed much more than the rest of the globe. The NASA and NOAA data sets fill in the missing data in the Arctic with data interpolated from the nearest stations in the Arctic, a procedure which is less likely to underestimate the global temperature.

December 2009: 14th coolest December on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average December temperature was 3.2°F below average, making it the 14th coolest December in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past three months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December. The coolest December weather was in the Central U.S., where Nebraska had its eighth coolest December; Texas, Nevada, and Wyoming their ninth; and Montana and Utah their tenth coolest.

December 2009 was the 11th wettest December in U.S. history. It was a record wet month for Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland; 2nd wettest month on record for New Jersey; and the third wettest month on record for South Dakota, North Carolina, and Alabama. The Northwest U.S. was dry, with Washington experiencing its 11th driest December on record.

The year 2009: 35th warmest for the U.S.
For the entire year of 2009, it was the 35th warmest year in the contiguous U.S during the 115-year record. The coolest state was Nebraska, which had its 19th coolest year on record, and the warmest state was California, with its 16th warmest year on record. The driest state was Arizona, where 2009 ranked as the 4th driest year on record, while the wettest states were Illinois, Alabama, and Arkansas, who all had their 2nd wettest year on record.

U.S. tornado deaths: 2nd lowest on record
The year 2009 was below average for number of tornadoes, with a final tally around 1120 expected, compared to the 3-year average of 1297, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The 21 tornado deaths in 2009 was the 2nd lowest death toll in the 60-year record. Only 1986, with its 15 tornado deaths, saw fewer fatalities. The 60-year average annual death toll is 84.

U.S. drought
At the end of December, 6% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, which is well below average. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought, and U.S. drought extent is close to its lowest value for the past ten years. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona, and this will shrink over the remainder of January as much-needed rain falls across Arizona. About 43 percent of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of December, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This footprint is significantly larger than the long-term average.

Average U.S. fire activity in 2009
Significant fire activity occurred early in 2009, but wetter conditions across many parts of the nation as the year progressed, coupled with effective fire management, helped to restrain fire activity by mid-year. Despite the largest fire in Los Angeles County's (California) recorded history (Station fire), by the end of August the nationwide acreage burned by wildfire was very near the 2000 - 2009 average, and thereafter declined below average. Based upon data provided by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire activity in 2009 ranked fifth highest (sixth lowest) out of the past decade in terms of number of fires, about 1 percent below the 2000 - 2008 average. Acres burned in 2009 were 14.5 percent below the 2000 - 2008 average, ranking seventh highest (fourth lowest) since 2000. Average fire size also ranked seventh highest out of the 2000 - 2009 period, at about 14 percent below average.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on January 10, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the 9 weeks ending January 10. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Most of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will gradually weaken. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

December sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
December 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979 and slightly below December 2008 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2005, 2006, and 2007 saw lower December arctic sea ice extent. The weather pattern over the Arctic in December 2009 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the AO has increased significantly in January, and it is unclear what the net effect of the AO on sea ice transported out of the Arctic this winter will be.

Next post
I'm at the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be making my next post from Atlanta on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I've been to many disaster relief shelters run by large institutional agencies...and they seem very concentration camp-like to me...
Quoting presslord:
I've been to many disaster relief shelters run by large institutional agencies...and they seem very concentration camp-like to me...


Yes they are........Wow! Do i remember Hurricane Andrew.....Tent city was unreal.
Quoting ElConando:
The only possible natural disaster that could affect the whole nation would be the super volcano is Wyoming.
thats not comnpletly true
Quoting presslord:
I've been to many disaster relief shelters run by large institutional agencies...and they seem very concentration camp-like to me...

Yeah, and I was completely freaked out by one, too, in San Antonio. It got reported, though I bet that particular report hit File 13 (guess whose?) And it certainly wasn't run by FEMA. FEMA does not run the shelters. Grants from FEMA may help fund some of the shelters.

I have also been to wonderful, caring shelters. Kudos to a couple of the Community Colleges in Alabama. And to the College Presidents, Ph.D.'s, out there working and sweating along with all the volunteers (just saying, they didn't have to get down and dirty, but they did).

That makes two strikes today, Press. Go ahead and make it three but I won't be here. Not a total masochist...just a partial masochist.

I apologize if I myself have offended anyone or any organization today. I hope I have have helped someone in whatever small way.

Please WU-mail me if you have any other comments or questions I maybe, might, be able to help with. Please know that I'm always willing to listen to productive criticism.

I'm out for the day.
Take care and stay safe.
in no way was my comment about shelters a 'strike' at you...or anyone...and if you internalized it as such...well...that ain't my fault...but, in my experience, the nore caring shelters tend to be operated by church and other community groups...not large, institutional organizations...
OK...Danny Glover just blamed the Haiti quake on global warming and climate change....wow...
507. IKE
Per Fox News....$600 million dollars has been donated, so far, to Haiti.
Quoting presslord:
OK...Danny Glover just blamed the Haiti quake on global warming and climate change....wow...

I completely fail to see how the two could even be related, much less have a direct cause-effect relationship.
yea...not sure Danny Glover is an expert on the subject...
Quoting presslord:
OK...Danny Glover just blamed the Haiti quake on global warming and climate change....wow...


Where do these ideas get started? You could just as well blame it on a fat man jumping up and down in Key West...ludicrous...LOL
Quoting presslord:
...cool article on the work of one of our Portlight supporters...Link


Great story, press! Thanks!!
512. IKE
"""You don't believe me?????"""

Mr. Glover your statement has no meaning and has absolutely no bearing on what has happened, nor does it have anything remotely close to the subject at hand...because of you, the world is now dumber and in fact more stupid from hearing the words coming outta your mouth.
...hopefullly...he was just really drunk when he gave that interview...
Maybe some GW group paid him to say it,
Quoting RitaEvac:
Maybe some GW group paid him to say it,



...nah...we're smarter than that...
any earthquake updates out there
518. IKE
Per Fox News...11,000 US troops will be in Haiti by tonight.
Danny Glover,now theres a reputable source I'll certainly listen too.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Danny Glover,now theres a reputable source I'll certainly listen too.


He is just as reputable as Al Gore! LOL! Next we'll see Al Gore on TV saying the samething.
522. IKE
Per Wikipedia on Danny Glover....

"On January 13, 2010, Glover compared the scale and devastation of the 2010 Haiti earthquake to the predicament other island nations may face as a result of the failed Copenhagen summit the previous year. Glover said "...the threat of what happens to Haiti is a threat that can happen anywhere in the Caribbean to these island nations... they're all in peril because of global warming... because of climate change... when we did what we did at the climate summit in Copenhagen, this is the response, this is what happens..."[20] In the same statement, he called for a new form of international partnership with Haiti and other Caribbean nations and praised Venezuela, Brazil, and Cuba, for already accepting this partnership."
523. IKE
I think I've just about heard it all now with Glover's comments...omg.
...that's pretty painful to read...
"The reality is that we have known so little over time that it's difficult to know with much accuracy what getting a good look is going to tell us about what we could do in the future," said Dr. David Burns..
More money than brains. I notice a lot of that.
His time would be better served if he made Lethal Weapon 30
528. IKE
Quoting presslord:
...that's pretty painful to read...


Speaking of painful to read.....

"Hugo Chavez says U.S. is using earthquake as pretext for occupying Haiti"....from....Link

If we(USA), did nothing, we would get hammered. Being we did, we still get hammered.

Can't win for losing. We're saving people's lives and giving them food and water and we're still complained about.
If I ever win the lottery I'm going to start with spending money on tearing down the Georgia Guidestones, then I'm going to shut down Bilderberg Group and bury them in the ground.
i had to post , after all the comments, this is from a doctor about tobacco use,,
If my skeptics are listening, I'm your worst nightmare
i know , it was just the words he used to describe the same thing,, it had no meaning, to agw, gw, smoking, etc..
Quoting RitaEvac:
If my skeptics are listening, I'm your worst nightmare


I'm skeptic as well but to a certain extent. I just don't believe were as doomed as Al Gore makes it seem.
btw,, i thought baby doc was broke.....
Quoting IKE:


Speaking of painful to read.....

"Hugo Chavez says U.S. is using earthquake as pretext for occupying Haiti"....from....Link

If we(USA), did nothing, we would get hammered. Being we did, we still get hammered.

Can't win for losing. We're saving people's lives and giving them food and water and we're still complained about.


That's why we just do it and damn the torpedos...I don't see Chavesz aiding in re-establishing order...no, he's helping to pull down order and create Chaos. We go in, we get the job done and we get our military out. Period. It's going to be a long uphill struggle in Haiti, and we need to give seom thought to what we do to help protect the people of Haiti during storm season...with a third to half the population homeless even a tropical storm will create a huge humanitarian catastrophe. Maybe Hugo Chavez can provide shelter for the homeless of Haiti
Temps near 80 in Orlando starting Thursday for 7 to 10 days.
537. IKE
European Union new estimate of death toll in Haiti..... 200,000.
Quoting Floodman:


That's why we just do it and damn the torpedos...I don't see Chavesz aiding in re-establishing order...no, he's helping to pull down order and create Chaos. We go in, we get the job done and we get our military out. Period. It's going to be a long uphill struggle in Haiti, and we need to give seom thought to what we do to help protect the people of Haiti during storm season...with a third to half the population homeless even a tropical storm will create a huge humanitarian catastrophe. Maybe Hugo Chavez can provide shelter for the homeless of Haiti

He is too busy saber-rattling everyone in North and South America. According to Chavez, everyone is out to get him, and his only friends are his weapons, his oil, and his imagination.

Personally, I would find it highly amusing if we turned away tankers with Venezuelan crude... his economy would crash, since we are one of the few countries that have the facilities to actually refine his oil.
Quoting presslord:
OK...Danny Glover just blamed the Haiti quake on global warming and climate change....wow...
Quoting Floodman:


You could just as well blame it on a fat man jumping up and down in Key West...ludicrous...LOL


Blame it on the butterfly effect. I heard the earthquake was caused by someone in France dropped their paper cup of coffee at (insert your favorite coffee vendor here) because it was too hot. Maybe laywers need to get involved.
Quoting IKE:
European Union new estimate of death toll in Haiti..... 200,000.

Is the Red Cross still at 100,000-150,000?

Or have they upped it too?
Quoting Greyelf:


Blame it on the butterfly effect. I heard the earthquake was caused by someone in France dropped their paper cup of coffee at (insert your favorite coffee vendor here) because it was too hot. Maybe laywers need to get involved.
*end sarcasm, btw*
Quoting Greyelf:


Blame it on the butterfly effect. I heard the earthquake was caused by someone in France dropped their paper cup of coffee at (insert your favorite coffee vendor here) because it was too hot. Maybe laywers need to get involved.

So would the lawyers sue the coffee vendor for making the coffee too hot, the paper cup company for making their cups so non-insulative, or the person for being a wuss and dropping the cup?
Actually, I'd imagine a lawyer would try suing them all.
Hi guys what up anything new
545. IKE
Quoting jeffs713:

Is the Red Cross still at 100,000-150,000?

Or have they upped it too?


I google searched your question...I don't see them listing it at 100,000 to 150,000....yet. Maybe I didn't search enough.
546. IKE
They just pulled a 25 year-old female, alive, out of the rubble in Port-Au-Prince.
Afternoon, everybody.

Quoting IKE:


Speaking of painful to read.....

"Hugo Chavez says U.S. is using earthquake as pretext for occupying Haiti"....from....Link

If we(USA), did nothing, we would get hammered. Being we did, we still get hammered.

Can't win for losing. We're saving people's lives and giving them food and water and we're still complained about.
Hey, there are some things one should automatically expect Chavez to say.... this is one of them.....

A more interesting qtn: has Chavez ponied up on the oil donations yet?
Quoting IKE:
They just pulled a 25 year-old female, alive, out of the rubble in Port-Au-Prince.


Wow, 5 days, 23 hours and 23 minutes...I had expected all missions to have gone over to recovery rather than rescue by now. Does anyone have any numbers on the people actually rescued? I'm afraid it's pretty low
Quoting Greyelf:
Actually, I'd imagine a lawyer would try suing them all.


Yep, and accuse them all of willfull negligence, malfeasance and criminal conspiracy...
Okay folks, fresh off the presses, I've updated the Portlight website and my blog...post links everywhere you can think of
Quoting IKE:
They just pulled a 25 year-old female, alive, out of the rubble in Port-Au-Prince.
Quoting Floodman:


Wow, 5 days, 23 hours and 23 minutes...I had expected all missions to have gone over to recovery rather than rescue by now. Does anyone have any numbers on the people actually rescued? I'm afraid it's pretty low

that is what you call a strong woman to survive that long
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Climate Denial Crock of the Week- "It's cold. So there's no Climate Change" and It's so Cold, there can't be Global Warming


Try this one from today :)

Quoting Floodman:




The thing we can't lose sight of is that for every person looting in Haiti, there are 100 Haitians that are not looting or causing problems

Thanks for saying this! I keep feeling that some of the news networks are trying to find as many examples of anarchy as possible (I'm thinking ABC and Fox in particular, based on what I've seen so far); I guess they figure it sells news faster. I suppose pictures of Haitians rescuing each other, looking out for each other, helping each other.... those are just not the images of Haiti that people expect (want?) to see.

I also feel sometimes that they find the one person in the crowd of 100 who is complaining and interview that person, without talking to another person who might understand that the dead in Port-au-Prince are likely to include a considerable number of government and church leaders. Kind of hard to have a government, police officers, or UN peace keepers doing their job when they're dead.

I've yet to check the reports for today's progress. But scanning the blog I saw a EU estimate of 200,000 dead. That fills me with dread.....

At least the weather is continuing fair, if hot...
Quoting Ossqss:


Try this one from today :)



So who profits from this?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks for saying this! I keep feeling that some of the news networks are trying to find as many examples of anarchy as possible (I'm thinking ABC and Fox in particular, based on what I've seen so far); I guess they figure it sells news faster. I suppose pictures of Haitians rescuing each other, looking out for each other, helping each other.... those are just not the images of Haiti that people expect (want?) to see.

I also feel sometimes that they find the one person in the crowd of 100 who is complaining and interview that person, without talking to another person who might understand that the dead in Port-au-Prince are likely to include a considerable number of government and church leaders. Kind of hard to have a government, police officers, or UN peace keepers doing their job when they're dead.

I've yet to check the reports for today's progress. But scanning the blog I saw a EU estimate of 200,000 dead. That fills me with dread.....

At least the weather is continuing fair, if hot...


The issue with any numbers for casualties right now is that they're extremely "soft".

As for my comment about looting, it's absolutely true. It's always been this way; the media wants to report on things that pull in viewers: "Looters wielding Machetes are rampant in Haiti" will draw a lot more viewers than "99 out of 100 Haitians are not participating in the looting"...
Quoting Ossqss:


Try this one from today :)



Oh and by the way, who profits from falsifying the data?
40-Foot Waves, 85 MPH Winds, 10 Feet of Snow!
Sound like a disaster movie? Nope, it's only the weather for the West Coast this week. This is going to be a big series of storms (we're saying the worst since 2005) which will provide waves as high as 40 feet, winds to 85 mph, along with up to 18 inches of rain and 10 feet of snow in the mountains. These events will be localized but I suspect we could see numbers higher than those; winds have already gusted to 85 mph and the first storm is just coming in.
Quoting Jeff9641:
40-Foot Waves, 85 MPH Winds, 10 Feet of Snow!
Sound like a disaster movie? Nope, it's only the weather for the West Coast this week. This is going to be a big series of storms (we're saying the worst since 2005) which will provide waves as high as 40 feet, winds to 85 mph, along with up to 18 inches of rain and 10 feet of snow in the mountains. These events will be localized but I suspect we could see numbers higher than those; winds have already gusted to 85 mph and the first storm is just coming in.


Wow...keep your heads down
Quoting Floodman:


So who profits from this?


We all pay the price until we gain clarity of science without question Flood. I don't like the controversy. It only delays our ability to handle the issues at hand appropriately. There are many to be handled aside from the AGW item. I will not subject myself or anyone to an edict from those who are not rock solid in their methodology of applying the required scientific principles. I just want the truth and have been seeking it for a very long time. We don't have it yet. It is in the middle. The place that most answers ultimately are found. :)

Look no further than the UN as to who benefits from the AGW item. It is documented on their site many times as to how they wish to use AGW as the conduit to meet their global goals relating to sustainable developement. I did not put it there, they did :)

In many ways, they are not wrong with their ultimate goal. How they get there however, may be...

Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation supports Portlight Haiti relief effort with $10,000 grantLink
And we thank them heartily for that.

christopherreeve.org

good evening everyone
563. Great news!
I am embarrassed to admit that the Bahamian government has made NO pledges of support, not even manpower. However, schoolchildren are raising funds to support the recovery effort, and I hear a group of doctors and nurses are going on their own steam.
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone


that young lady certainly improves the eye appeal of your avatar, buddy...
Quoting presslord:


that young lady certainly improves the eye appeal of your avatar, buddy...


haha thanks :P
572. beell
Quoting presslord:
Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation supports Portlight Haiti relief effort with $10,000 grantLink


Nice one, press.
That adds some snow to the snowball!
I know this org has supported portlight in the past.
574. beell
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i have never seen this before, thanks for the link


Sure, WW11. We'll see how well it works, I guess.
LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE, Calif. -- Authorities ordered the evacuation of 64 Southern California homes Monday as heavy rains pounded a neighborhood just below an area scarred by a massive wildfire. Forty-two other homeowners were told to be ready to leave if necessary.
Reporter's Notebook: Keeping the faith in the midst of disaster
Jan. 18, 2010
e.b. solomont, jpost correspondent in port-au-prince , THE JERUSALEM POST

On the first Sunday after the earthquake struck Haiti, people living on the outskirts of Port-Au-Prince donned church clothes. The Caribbean nation is 80 percent Roman Catholic. Several kilometers from the heart of the city - where the devastation is the worst - Sunday meant church day.

Not so in the capitol, where any loss of faith mirrors the physical destruction of churches, along with schools, hospitals and homes. In their place, desperation and lawlessness remain. A new kind of commerce has also sprung up, with people hawking $7 bottles of juice and $5 packs of cigarettes (expensive in this city).

Anyone with a car, of course, is quick to transport the journalists and aid workers that have descended on Port-Au-Prince. As I rode in one such car on Sunday, the Haitian driver and his friends said they drove to the Dominican Republic to buy gas and purchase food and water for their families. Ascending the hills of Port-Au-Prince, we passed a gas station where people clamored in line for petrol being sold at $10 a gallon.

But medicine and water are still the country's most pressing needs. On Sunday, armored trucks carried shipments of water, which is as precious as gold here. Outside a ruined health clinic, a doctor in a blue gown made do without a traditional operating table, suturing a gash on his patient's leg in the middle of a street lined with rubble from fallen homes.

The same scene played out elsewhere, including at the city's main hospitals. In Jimani, the border town between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the hospital was sending overflow patients to a nearby hotel. The head of the Good Samaritan relief group, who was organizing the ancillary center, greeted a Jerusalem Post reporter with the word "Shalom."

I asked if he knew of the IDF's field hospital - a fully functioning, operating hospital set up in an industrial park in Port-Au-Prince. He did not, but he said, "Brothers, we need you."

The hospital itself is a place of order and humanity, marooned on an island of death and disaster. As an occasional helicopter flies overhead, patients line up outside the doors to be seen by doctors and nurses. Nearly two days after arriving here, the medical staff has established a fast-paced routine of treating patients and discharging them quickly to make room for the next.

With two operating rooms, a neonatal intensive care unit and X-ray machines, IDF doctors treated 100 patients in the first day. They performed three amputations, and treated a patient with a gunshot wound. On Saturday night, a 24-year-old woman was the first to give birth there. In this very Catholic country, she named her son Israel.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST January 19 2010
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 7.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
From PBS Newshour, an interview with a Salvation Army relief coordinator on the ground in Haiti:

Link
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Reporter's Notebook: Keeping the faith in the midst of disaster
Jan. 18, 2010
e.b. solomont, jpost correspondent in port-au-prince , THE JERUSALEM POST

On the first Sunday after the earthquake struck Haiti, people living on the outskirts of Port-Au-Prince donned church clothes. The Caribbean nation is 80 percent Roman Catholic. Several kilometers from the heart of the city - where the devastation is the worst - Sunday meant church day.

Not so in the capitol, where any loss of faith mirrors the physical destruction of churches, along with schools, hospitals and homes. In their place, desperation and lawlessness remain. A new kind of commerce has also sprung up, with people hawking $7 bottles of juice and $5 packs of cigarettes (expensive in this city).

Anyone with a car, of course, is quick to transport the journalists and aid workers that have descended on Port-Au-Prince. As I rode in one such car on Sunday, the Haitian driver and his friends said they drove to the Dominican Republic to buy gas and purchase food and water for their families. Ascending the hills of Port-Au-Prince, we passed a gas station where people clamored in line for petrol being sold at $10 a gallon.

But medicine and water are still the country's most pressing needs. On Sunday, armored trucks carried shipments of water, which is as precious as gold here. Outside a ruined health clinic, a doctor in a blue gown made do without a traditional operating table, suturing a gash on his patient's leg in the middle of a street lined with rubble from fallen homes.

The same scene played out elsewhere, including at the city's main hospitals. In Jimani, the border town between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the hospital was sending overflow patients to a nearby hotel. The head of the Good Samaritan relief group, who was organizing the ancillary center, greeted a Jerusalem Post reporter with the word "Shalom."

I asked if he knew of the IDF's field hospital - a fully functioning, operating hospital set up in an industrial park in Port-Au-Prince. He did not, but he said, "Brothers, we need you."

The hospital itself is a place of order and humanity, marooned on an island of death and disaster. As an occasional helicopter flies overhead, patients line up outside the doors to be seen by doctors and nurses. Nearly two days after arriving here, the medical staff has established a fast-paced routine of treating patients and discharging them quickly to make room for the next.

With two operating rooms, a neonatal intensive care unit and X-ray machines, IDF doctors treated 100 patients in the first day. They performed three amputations, and treated a patient with a gunshot wound. On Saturday night, a 24-year-old woman was the first to give birth there. In this very Catholic country, she named her son Israel.


:)
I have updated the Portlight website and my blog on the grant from the Reeve foundation. The story/blog that made this information public can be found here.
Fake Facebook pages. LINK LINK

Facebook full of fake Haiti fundraisers

Fake fundraising efforts for the Haiti disaster are spreading like wildfire on Facebook. Dozens of fan pages have been set up, urging users to join and promising a $1 donation for each member. One group this weekend attracted 1.5 million members before it was disabled.
Fiji Meteorological Service
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F
6:00 AM FST January 19 2010
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04F (1004 hPa) located at 10.0S 170.0E is reported as moving slowly. Convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours but no definite organization. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation from surface to 500 HPA with divergence aloft. TD 04F is located in a moderately sheared environment and most models (NOGAPS, UK, US) are moving the system southwest into a decreasing shear environment and eventually deepening it.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
584. chawk
Great work "OSSQSS!!!. I will never understand why it's always the 5th or 8th warmest year since records began in 1880. Some of the anomalies areas on the global map did not even have weather stations until world war two some 60 years later. How has the data gathered today with such advanced technology compromized the data of old collected with a spring activated barometer and a mercury filled thermometer or vs versa. Ironically, the horible effects of so called AGW are coming true not because of climate change but rather because of business restraining laws and politics which have resulted in massive amounts of industry going overseas to countries that are laughing at AGW and those who are pushing it. Results so far: highest unemployment since the great depression,greatest national debt of any country since the world began, and a sedendary society looking for the government for everything.
Quoting presslord:


that young lady certainly improves the eye appeal of your avatar, buddy...
It would be even better if you got rid of that Colts hat and got you Saints hat :)
Quoting tkeith:
It would be even better if you got rid of that Colts hat and got you Saints hat :)


haha well, I would, but I like the Colts better, although I definitely like the Saints, especially Brees, since he went to Purdue (:
Quoting tornadodude:


haha well, I would, but I like the Colts better, although I definitely like the Saints, especially Brees, since he went to Purdue (:
we'll let it slide tdude...lol. Peyton Manning is from New Orleans :)
Quoting tkeith:
we'll let it slide tdude...lol. Peyton Manning is from New Orleans :)


Exactly :) haha
well I'm going to work on making an outline and typing a thesis, so I'll check back in periodically :P
I guess the thought of writing a thesis kills the blog :p

I think I murdered the blog...
Quoting tornadodude:
I guess the thought of writing a thesis kills the blog :p

I think I murdered the blog...
BLOGKILLER!~!!!!jk....Good evening T-Dude..:)
Quoting hydrus:
BLOGKILLER!~!!!!jk....Good evening T-Dude..:)


haha :O ah! how's it going?
A cyclonic vortex eddy is developing off the coast of Argentina in the South Atlantic. This organized feature was not present yesterday. It is currently located at 44S, 54W.



To the west of the eddy, 12C water is directly clashing with 23C water, but now especially the warmth, and some of the coolth (not a word) is getting diverted eastward. Immediately surrounding the outside of the vortex, water temperatures range from 22C to 13C. The center of the vortex is currently 13C, while the warmest water in its "eye" (if you could call it that) is 19C, and the warm water to its north is spinning in a counter-clockwise direction while the motion in the eddy is clockwise (low pressure in Southern Hemisphere).
Tdude, tis dinnertime on the east coast.... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Tdude, tis dinnertime on the east coast.... lol


at 8:22? :P
OK, something is DEFINITELY wrong with the GFS and other computer model forecasts...

Quoting presslord:
OK...Danny Glover just blamed the Haiti quake on global warming and climate change....wow...

He must have been in here when drOmyhEcaPsthewRongletTers said the same. Moronic statements do sometimes just start as rumor from a non-source.
Quoting atmoaggie:

He must have been in here when drOmyhEcaPsthewRongletTers said the same. Moronic statements do sometimes just start as rumor from a non-source.


Link?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Link?


to what?

link
WOAH!

GFS 288h...



336h...



384h...

Quoting atmoaggie:

He must have been in here when drOmyhEcaPsthewRongletTers said the same. Moronic statements do sometimes just start as rumor from a non-source.

Thank you :) But i didn't said that and glover neither.

Glover compared the scale and devastation of the 2010 Haiti earthquake to the predicament other island nations may face as a result of the failed Copenhagen summit
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Glover
601:

what exactly does your name on here mean?
Quoting tornadodude:


to what?

link


I was looking for the link that shows that there is a rumour of the earthquake being linked to global warming/climate change. Not that I nessecarily agree with any such statements, but was just curious enough to want to take a look myself.
Quoting tornadodude:


haha :O ah! how's it going?
Good--feeding all my hungry animals and enjoying the warmer weather. It is going to change a bit on Wednesday.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I was looking for the link that shows that there is a rumour of the earthquake being linked to global warming/climate change. Not that I nessecarily agree with any such statements, but was just curious enough to want to take a look myself.


oh ok, I dont know where
Quoting hydrus:
Good--feeding all my hungry animals and enjoying the warmer weather. It is going to change a bit on Wednesday.


yeah it has been nice (40 degrees instead of 10!) haha
@602 Doctor God Own Country
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Thank you :) But i didn't said that and glover neither.

Glover compared the scale and devastation of the 2010 Haiti earthquake to the predicament other island nations may face as a result of the failed Copenhagen summit
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Glover


Faliure is right. This shows that the world leaders simply cannot cooperate on this issue, and because there was mistrust now all they can do is blame each other. Link
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
@602 Doctor God Own Country


oh ok,thanks
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah it has been nice (40 degrees instead of 10!) haha
yeah, We are having a virtual heat wave, it was 56 degrees here today as opposed to 7.
Quoting hydrus:
yeah, We are having a virtual heat wave, it was 56 degrees here today as opposed to 7.


dang, must be nice. the warmest we've had since Christmas Eve is 41
Quoting hydrus:
Good--feeding all my hungry animals and enjoying the warmer weather. It is going to change a bit on Wednesday.


Speaking of warm, our first major snowfall of the season here in S. Ontario at my location, was on January 3, 2010. Usually such a snowfall event would occur in December, often more than once, and sometimes in late November. Toronto Pearson recorded less than 30 cm (1 ft) of snow so far all season, and the previous record for the least total snowfall accumalations there by this time of year was 52 cm, set in 1952-53. Currently, the temperature is slightly above freezing.

By the way, does anyone have the link to the AO prediction graphs? I recall seeing that it will dip again to near-off-the-charts levels by early February and set in for another Arctic blast in N. America.

Today, a major flooding event occured in Southern Israel after a cold front brought in the end of a major winter heat wave in the coastal Mediterranean Middle East. A few weeks ago, the continuous storms in Europe sparked flooding in Southeastern Europe. Currently, flooding is also occuring in Egypt and a riverboat overturned on the Nile, and normally the flooding cycle there starts in August.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Speaking of warm, our first major snowfall of the season here in S. Ontario at my location, was on January 3, 2010. Usually such a snowfall event would occur in December, often more than once, and sometimes in late November. Toronto Pearson recorded less than 30 cm (1 ft) of snow so far all season, and the previous record for the least total snowfall accumalations there by this time of year was 52 cm, set in 1952-53. Currently, the temperature is slightly above freezing.

By the way, does anyone have the link to the AO prediction graphs? I recall seeing that it will dip again to near-off-the-charts levels by early February and set in for another Arctic blast in N. America.

Today, a major flooding event occured in Southern Israel after a cold front brought in the end of a major winter heat wave in the coastal Mediterranean Middle East. A few weeks ago, the continuous storms in Europe sparked flooding in Southeastern Europe. Currently, flooding is also occuring in Egypt and a riverboat overturned on the Nile, and normally the flooding cycle there starts in August.


The weather for you has been odd this year, as has the record cold outbreak in Florida and other parts of the South

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AstroHurricane001 is this low preassure circulation in 384h more defined than the previous one? Or please elaborate more, thanks.
Quoting tornadodude:


The weather for you has been odd this year, as has the record cold outbreak in Florida and other parts of the South


Not to mention the time when I saw about 130 geese flying south on November 28 and about 35 geese flying back north on December 11. By mid-November, there were still dandelions, caterpillers, earthworms, houseflies, and mosquitoes in my area.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Not to mention the time when I saw about 130 geese flying south on November 28 and about 35 geese flying back north on December 11. By mid-November, there were still dandelions, caterpillers, earthworms, houseflies, and mosquitoes in my area.


really? wow, it was certainly colder than that here, and I'm a lot farther south. there were a few cities in my area that had top 5 coldest starts to a year ever, and the most consecutive days below freezing
Quoting tornadodude:


dang, must be nice. the warmest we've had since Christmas Eve is 41
We were below freezing for 9 days, it was COLD..bbl
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
AstroHurricane001 is this low preassure circulation in 384h more defined than the previous one? Or please elaborate more, thanks.


I haven't been tracking the GFS forecasts very closely, but this one shows a massive derecho from the northern Caribbean sea to Newfoundland after passing though Florida. Bad news for Haiti as well. However, the GFS forecasts could be a little bit "whack", see post 596.
Quoting hydrus:
We were below freezing for 9 days, it was COLD..bbl


cold for sure, we were below freezing for 13 straight days.
617: I'm blaming low humidity rather than low temperatures. Notice that the low temperature at one location was 15C.
Quoting tornadodude:


cold for sure, we were below freezing for 13 straight days.


To the folks in the central US, below freezing is cold, but here it's unusual to be above freezing for several days in winter. Persistant low pressure systems since late November have dumped cold Arctic air into the US Midwest and south, while the warm air circulated up the east coast and into S. Ontario. Again, Toronto Pearson Airport has recorded half of the previous record low snowfall by this time of year.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
617: I'm blaming low humidity rather than low temperatures. Notice that the low temperature at one location was 15C.


I'm blaming the flurries that fell in the summer :P
2330 UNK FRESNO FRESNO CA 3678 11979 BROADCASTERS REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF FRESNO. CAUSED 50,000 POWER OUTAGES. (HNX)
80mph winds in LOS ANGELES

55 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD ALTADENA 34.19N 118.14W
01/18/2010 LOS ANGELES CA BROADCAST MEDIA

DEBRIS AND WATER OVER CANYON CREST ROAD NEAR THE BRIDGE
BELOW MILLARD CANYON. SEVERAL CARS TRAPPED.

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD VAN NUYS 34.18N 118.45W
01/18/2010 LOS ANGELES CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEPULVEDA BASIN AND BALBOA BLVD - STREETS FLOODED AND
PEOPLE RESCUED FROM THE TOPS OF THEIR VEHICLES.

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WOODLAND HILLS 34.17N 118.59W
01/18/2010 LOS ANGELES CA BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN


&&

$$

BOLDT

This area is hit hard.. Link to all ..

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W FRAZIER PARK 34.82N 119.03W
01/18/2010 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** A 21 YEAR OLD MAN WAS KILLED TODAY AT THE
PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS OF 85 MPH WHICH
KNOCKED DOWN A TREE THAT FELL INTO THE MAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
516 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010


Looks like Kern got slammed with 90mph winds
Is El Nino a cause of the strong winds in California? Will look for answer in the morning.
Goodnight!
627. Thanks, Skyepony. Good night all, turning in early. As always, take care and stay safe.


Region:
SOLOMON ISLANDS
Geographic coordinates:8.977S, 158.132E
Magnitude:5.5 Mb
Depth:52 km
Universal Time (UTC):19 Jan 2010 00:17:50
Time near the Epicenter: 19 Jan 2010 11:17:50
Location with respect to nearby cities:
143 km (89 miles) SW (224 degrees) of Dadali, Solomon Islands
171 km (106 miles) SE (125 degrees) of Gizo, Solomon Islands
207 km (128 miles) WNW (285 degrees) of HONIARA, Solomon Islands
1201 km (746 miles) E (88 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea



Region:
SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Geographic coordinates: 12.479S, 166.171E
Magnitude:5.7 Mw
Depth:10 km
Universal Time (UTC):18 Jan 2010 16:09:15
Time near the Epicenter: 19 Jan 2010 03:09:15
Location with respect to nearby cities:
355 km (221 miles) NNW (343 degrees) of Santo (Luganville), Vanuatu
629 km (391 miles) NNW (338 degrees) of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu
2097 km (1303 miles) E (101 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
I dont believe that global warming exists. Just like I dont believe heat has anything to do with Hurricanes strengthening. The evidence of heat in relation to hurricane strength is still spotty for me.
San Diego can thank me for sandbaggin my back yard...I have saved the entire county from sure obliteration just because i was prepared. I am sure that the big guy likes to make me look like a jackass.
Quoting Skyepony:
This area is hit hard.. Link to all ..

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W FRAZIER PARK 34.82N 119.03W
01/18/2010 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** A 21 YEAR OLD MAN WAS KILLED TODAY AT THE
PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS OF 85 MPH WHICH
KNOCKED DOWN A TREE THAT FELL INTO THE MAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
516 PM PST MON JAN 18 2010


Looks like Kern got slammed with 90mph winds


Oh MAN!
The last time I experience that wind was in Hurricane Wilma, not good at all. Mass power outages are likely unless they bury powerlines.
Quoting ElConando:
The last time I experience that wind was in Hurricane Wilma, not good at all. Mass power outages are likely unless they bury powerlines.


here's the last time I had them link

Well I lost all my 20 tomato plants. 3 papaya plants are brown. 2 big Mango trees are really looking very bad. and 3 avocado look like they mite make it
NWS Indy:
NWS Indianapolis Doppler Radar Detects Cars on Highways

Due to current atmospheric conditions, the Indianapolis Doppler Radar is detecting cars on area highways tonight as the radar beam is ducted back toward the ground. In the following image, the brighter colors in the white boxes along the mapped interstates indicate higher returned velocities, approximately those of groups of cars traveling at highway speeds.

642. beell
641.
That's a pretty cool grab, td.
Thanks!
Quoting beell:
641.
That's a pretty cool grab, td.
Thanks!


no problem!

Quoting tornadodude:


to what?

link


Thanks tdude
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Thanks tdude


I'm confused? sorry :p
Quoting tornadodude:


I'm confused? sorry :p


Sorry - I was reading your earlier link to how rumors get started.

I'm afraid my speed and the blog speed are not in sync.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Sorry - I was reading your earlier link to how rumors get started.

I'm afraid my speed and the blog speed are not in sync.


oh ok, yeah, I thought I'd add my thoughts :P
Quoting tornadodude:


oh ok, yeah, I thought I'd add my thoughts :P


Don't you have a thesis to write?

(Uh-oh! the bad gramma emerges, laying on a guilt trip)

P.S. Thesis about what?
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Don't you have a thesis to write?

(Uh-oh! the bad gramma emerges, laying on a guilt trip)

P.S. Thesis about what?


haha I did it already :)

and it was for my english class. we had to recall a "scary story" that happened in our lives, so I had to make an outline and thesis for it
Quoting tornadodude:


haha I did it already :)

and it was for my english class. we had to recall a "scary story" that happened in our lives, so I had to make an outline and thesis for it


What level ENC class is it, TD?
Quoting Floridano:


What level ENC class is it, TD?


oh its just 106, composition, everyone has to take it at Purdue if you didnt take a comp class in high school
Quoting tornadodude:


haha I did it already :)

and it was for my english class. we had to recall a "scary story" that happened in our lives, so I had to make an outline and thesis for it


ROFL! You are too much. I wish I had been half as quick as you when I was your age. Unfortunately, now that I'm many times your age, I'm even slower than I was then.

You are a bright spot in my day.

By the way, I like your new avatar. Good to see that you have a social life outside this blog.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


ROFL! You are too much. I wish I had been half as quick as you when I was your age. Unfortunately, now that I'm many times your age, I'm even slower than I was then.

You are a bright spot in my day.

By the way, I like your new avatar. Good to see that you have a social life outside this blog.


haha yeah, well I hope that I can stay this quick, or else my little bros will get to me :P

thanks btw, I do have a social life outside the blog haha but the people on this blog our as outstanding as anyone I could physically hang out with
MAP 3.0 2010/01/19 04:42:14 44.565 -110.975 10.2 15 km ( 9 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 3.3 2010/01/19 03:39:39 44.563 -110.977 10.0 15 km ( 9 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.8 2010/01/18 23:56:32 44.560 -110.971 0.9 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.4 2010/01/18 20:50:49 44.560 -110.966 9.2 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.9 2010/01/18 19:38:42 44.563 -110.966 9.8 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 3.1 2010/01/18 18:03:14 44.562 -110.978 10.1 15 km ( 9 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.5 2010/01/18 16:00:14 44.562 -110.973 9.0 15 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 1.0 2010/01/18 11:40:11 44.812 -111.523 4.5 37 km ( 23 mi) WNW of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.5 2010/01/18 10:10:22 44.559 -110.970 8.5 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.5 2010/01/18 02:44:15 44.569 -111.011 14.8 13 km ( 8 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.7 2010/01/18 02:38:01 44.561 -110.973 9.8 15 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.6 2010/01/18 01:04:24 44.562 -110.972 9.0 15 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.7 2010/01/18 00:02:56 44.563 -110.970 11.3 15 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.5 2010/01/17 22:43:34 44.565 -110.972 6.5 15 km ( 9 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.6 2010/01/17 21:55:56 44.554 -110.970 0.9 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 2.7 2010/01/17 21:04:07 44.562 -110.967 9.7 16 km ( 10 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

MAP 1.5 2010/01/15 09:11:34 44.574 -110.927 4.5 17 km ( 11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

just thought i'd share. we had quite a bit of lightening & thunder roll through here, haven't seen that in a while.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 18, 11:54 pm EST

Fog/Mist

34 F
(1 C)
Humidity: 97 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 29.98" (1015.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 33 F (1 C)
Visibility: 0.75 mi.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
1151 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...

WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE...CLOUDY AND FOGGY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED...WITH PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO
MILES...WITH PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE IN SPOTS.

FREEZING FOG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEPOSIT A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON
SURFACES AND ROADWAYS...WHICH CAN MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SLOW
DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN ADEQUATE DISTANCE
BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$$

RYAN
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah, well I hope that I can stay this quick, or else my little bros will get to me :P

thanks btw, I do have a social life outside the blog haha but the people on this blog our as outstanding as anyone I could physically hang out with


I agree. It's a great group. Good hearts as well as intelligence. I'm learning a lot.

Now time for bed. BTW we have barely gotten above freezing and still have a lot of snow. Snowmobilers and icefishermen are happy. I'll be happy when we get some new fluffy stuff. I don't like the ice that follows a thaw.


NWS Indy:
With no change in the airmass across the area, another foggy and cloudy night is on tap for central Indiana. Late tonight as temperatures drop to near or below freezing, areas of freezing fog will be possible, which may cause a few icy spots on area roadways. Exercise caution when traveling tonight and Tuesday morning. Cloudy skies will remain for Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Wow freezing fog, and I thought ice was bad!
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


I agree. It's a great group. Good hearts as well as intelligence. I'm learning a lot.

Now time for bed. BTW we have barely gotten above freezing and still have a lot of snow. Snowmobilers and icefishermen are happy. I'll be happy when we get some new fluffy stuff. I don't like the ice that follows a thaw.


very true, glad to be here. We still have about two inches left, have had snow since Jan 2nd. Hope you have a goodnight!
Quoting charlottefl:
Wow freezing fog, and I thought ice was bad!


yeah, sticks to everything, makes the sidewalks and roads really slick!
Just finished hammering out the dent in my front fender from my Corolla on ice event :P
Quoting charlottefl:
Just finished hammering out the dent in my front fender from my Corolla on ice event :P


oh wow, that sounds like loads of fun :PP
Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow, that sounds like loads of fun :PP


Tons, was going 5mph, didn't realize the road was entirely coated in ice (snow on top). I just bumped the other car, but it was enough. Then almost got wiped out by some girl flying down the hill, she spun sideways and missed my car by an inch. Did I mention that was fun?
Quoting charlottefl:


Tons, was going 5mph, didn't realize the road was entirely coated in ice (snow on top). I just bumped the other car, but it was enough. Then almost got wiped out by some girl flying down the hill, she spun sideways and missed my car by an inch. Did I mention that was fun?


dang! and to think that I whip around corners and use my e-brake lol
Quoting tornadodude:


dang! and to think that I whip around corners and use my e-brake lol


I've never seen it that bad, don't get me wrong I've seen patches of ice, but this road was so bad I could have ice skated home.
Quoting charlottefl:


I've never seen it that bad, don't get me wrong I've seen patches of ice, but this road was so bad I could have ice skated home.


I'll be honest, that sounds fun to me :P
Quoting tornadodude:


oh its just 106, composition, everyone has to take it at Purdue if you didnt take a comp class in high school



Gotcha, thanks.
Quoting Floridano:



Gotcha, thanks.


anytime
Quoting tornadodude:


I'll be honest, that sounds fun to me :P


I would say that surprises me, but it doesn't :P
Quoting charlottefl:


I would say that surprises me, but it doesn't :P


ha yeah, I tend to try to make life as interesting as possible
my weather for the past three days: link


it changed oh so much
High's and Lows for the next 5 days:


Overnight


Mostly
Cloudy
Lo 53 °F Tuesday


Sunny

Hi 71 °F Tuesday
Night

Mostly
Clear
Lo 53 °F Wednesday


Mostly
Sunny
Hi 78 °F Wednesday
Night

Partly
Cloudy
Lo 62 °F Thursday


Chance
Tstms
Hi 77 °F Thursday
Night

Chance
Showers
Lo 66 °F Friday


Slight Chc
Showers
Hi 78 °F Friday
Night

Mostly
Cloudy
Lo 63 °F
mine through Friday:

Overnight: Areas of freezing fog. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Areas of freezing fog before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North northwest wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Patchy freezing fog after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. East northeast wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. East wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind between 15 and 18 mph.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 33.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.
Something smells like JFV...
This is really cool!

Jet Contrails over Louisville early Monday morning.....

This unusual satellite image from early Monday morning vividly illustrates multiple jet contrails over the Kentuckiana area. These are noticeable due to the shadow each contrail casts on the solid stratus below.
Not a big range between HI and LO there...
Supposed to get down between 34-38 tonight and then we go into a nice warm period. Have highs in the lower 70s coming soon!!!
Kentuckiana? Lol.
Quoting charlottefl:
Not a big range between HI and LO there...
Quoting charlottefl:
Kentuckiana? Lol.


It's been like this for a week haha

and yeah, we also have Illiana lol
677:

must be nice! lol so if Conan loses his show, you gonna keep the avatar?
Alright everyone I'm off to bed 5:45 comes early. Night all.
Quoting charlottefl:
Alright everyone I'm off to bed 5:45 comes early. Night all.


have a good one, I have a class at 7:30 :P
Quoting tornadodude:
677:

must be nice! lol so if Conan loses his show, you gonna keep the avatar?


Conando is an alter ago of his in one of his shows within a show "Noches de Passion con Senior O'Brian." Yeah i'll keep it of course he will get another show. I'm telling you if he gets a show on fox he will trash the living hell outta nbc with every other gag.
Quoting tornadodude:


have a good one, I have a class at 7:30 :P


At least I have a class at 11:00 you need your beauty rest lol. I'm going to sleep soon as it is.
Quoting ElConando:


Conando is an alter ago of his in one of his shows within a show "Noches de Passion con Senior O'Brian." Yeah i'll keep it of course he will get another show. I'm telling you if he gets a show on fox he will trash the living hell outta nbc with every other gag.


yeah, I really hope he goes to fox ha
Quoting ElConando:


At least I have a class at 11:00 you need your beauty rest lol. I'm going to sleep soon as it is.


do I? haha look at my avatar ;) jk man
alright, I'm off to bed, have a good one!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 06U
9:00 AM UTC January 19 2010
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 11.6S 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/ 24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 12.0S 122.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.3S 122.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.2S 124.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 14.0S 125.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================
The low has shown signs of developing in the last 24 hours having convection being sustained near the centre through the day [diurnal minimum] even though there is only a small region of convection. Dvorak classification is difficult, although convection is tightly wrapped on the western side on microwave imagery [85GHz TMI at 0624UC] suggests that a 0.3-0.4 wrap is possible on the conventional IR image. The DT of 2.0 is matched by the MET based on a 1.0 development rate, although PAT could be slightly lower. FT/CI is hence marginal 2.0.

The system is in a low shear environment and over warm water [SST>30C] which should persist in the next few days allowing the system to intensify further. Motion should be slow through T+36h then track to the southeast towards the Kimberley coast under the influence of a short-wave trough over WA. Being a small circulation there is the risk that gales may develop faster than some models indicate, hence TC intensity is possible within 24 hours.
Quoting tornadodude:
This is really cool!

Jet Contrails over Louisville early Monday morning.....

This unusual satellite image from early Monday morning vividly illustrates multiple jet contrails over the Kentuckiana area. These are noticeable due to the shadow each contrail casts on the solid stratus below.


LOL...at first I was wondering why you posted a satellite image that had been scribbled on.
Just to comment on Figure 1:

According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, December was in south and central Finland (including Oulun lääni, or Oulu province) 1-2 degrees (Celsius) colder than average, in western Lapland about a degree warmer than usual, and about average in the rest of Lapland. Compared to that, the Figure (the dots on top of Finland) appears to be off by a degree or two.

The dots (of course) do not correspond to the areas only above Finland, but it makes one wonder. [And because November was quite warm, the sea (e.g. Gulf of Bothnia) was warmer than average, especially in the first half of the month. Do the dots (for sea areas) relate to SST or air temperature above water?] I'm pretty sure the comparison period is the same (1971-2000). It would be interesting to see the same figure for just the latter half of the month.

Another thing that leaves me wondering is whether the temperatures on glaciers are extrapolated from the temperatures on the edges.
50f e cent florida are you ready for the next one? so far in the past few yrs china earthqk, indian ocean tidal wave, swarms of big quakes in indo ,somoa tidal wave, atlanta flood, on and on
How Storms Can Trigger Earthquakes
Scientists are increasingly pointing to storms as a trigger for earthquakes and mudslides. That's raising questions about the effects that climate change might have on one of the world's deadliest natural catastrophes, and to what extent, if any, insurers and governments could be adapting to the interplay between atmosphere and earth.
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/11/20/20climatewire-how-storms-can-trigger-earthquakes-28304.html
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 06U
9:00 AM UTC January 19 2010
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 11.6S 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/ 24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 12.0S 122.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.3S 122.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.2S 124.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 14.0S 125.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================
The low has shown signs of developing in the last 24 hours having convection being sustained near the centre through the day [diurnal minimum] even though there is only a small region of convection. Dvorak classification is difficult, although convection is tightly wrapped on the western side on microwave imagery [85GHz TMI at 0624UC] suggests that a 0.3-0.4 wrap is possible on the conventional IR image. The DT of 2.0 is matched by the MET based on a 1.0 development rate, although PAT could be slightly lower. FT/CI is hence marginal 2.0.

The system is in a low shear environment and over warm water [SST>30C] which should persist in the next few days allowing the system to intensify further. Motion should be slow through T+36h then track to the southeast towards the Kimberley coast under the influence of a short-wave trough over WA. Being a small circulation there is the risk that gales may develop faster than some models indicate, hence TC intensity is possible within 24 hours.


695. P451
200,000 dead according to many news outlets this AM. People fleeing the capital due to lack of resources. Lots of violence.

It's unfortunate that what was ultimately going to happen - did indeed happen - and continues to worsen.

Tens of thousands of people will ultimately die in the coming days from this catastrophe.

It's something you can't prevent. You just can't. The scale is too large to attack head on.

What a freakin' disaster......




Mission details (Jan. 19):


U.S. Southern Command has established Joint Task Force-Haiti to oversee U.S. military relief efforts in Haiti and has appointed U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ken Keen as commander.

The task force mission is designated Operation Unified Response.


U.S. military personnel supporting:

Approximately 11,000 U.S. military personnel are currently supporting task force operations within Haiti and from U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels off shore.


Immediate mission focus:

Current U.S. military efforts are focused on working with the U.N. Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), the international community and local responders to alleviate human suffering and support humanitarian relief efforts. To help meet the overwhelming need for water, U.S. military aircraft, helicopters and vessels are giving the highest priority to the shipment of donated water. Three water treatment units are in Haiti producing water and four additional units are scheduled to arrive Jan. 19 aboard the U.S. Navy amphibious ship USS Bataan (LHD 5). Military units also delivered twelve 3,000-gallon water bladders and 18 pallets of bottled water.

Overall, there are more than 30 U.S. military and U.S. Coast Guard helicopters supporting the immediate delivery of aid to earthquake victims in Haiti. They are conducting operations to nine landing zones. An additional 15 helicopters will join the mission from the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group tomorrow.

As of today, U.S. military aircraft and helicopters have airlifted 130,000 humanitarian daily rations, 70,000 bottles of water and 124 tents into Port au Prince. U.S. military aircraft are scheduled to support the delivery of approximately 550,000 additional daily rations in the coming days.

To date, U.S. and international search and rescue teams have rescued more than 69 earthquake victims, mostly Haitian citizens.


U.S. military role:

Operation Unified Response is part of a larger U.S. response to a request from the government of Haiti for urgent humanitarian aid. U.S. Southern Command is working closely with the Dept. of State, U.S. Agency for International Development and the international community to aggressively provide life-sustaining services to the people of Haiti.

All military efforts are in support of the U.S. Agency for International Development, which is orchestrating U.S. government contributions to the relief mission.


U.S. Air Force support:

U.S. Air Force aircraft continue to fly numerous missions to support relief efforts. A C-17 Globemaster aircraft flew non-stop from Pope Air Force Base, N.C., and delivered 14,500 meals ready to eat and 15,000 liters of water by air into a controlled drop zone of 900 x 1800 yards in Haiti today. To ensure the safety of the Haitian people, Joint Task Force-Haiti secured an area in which to drop the supplies. Once on the ground, supplies were distributed by JTF-Haiti, USAID and other relief personnel.

Air Force air operations specialists and FAA air traffic control experts are working closely with Haitian aviation officials and the government of Haiti to manage the Haiti Flight Operations Coordination Center, which oversees air operation into and out of the Port au Prince airport. The center is ensuring the safe sustainment of humanitarian air operations and maximum use of the airfield. The airfield is now open for 24-hour operations and has a 126-aircraft-per-day capability, four times its normal maximum capacity. (see more on airport ops)

U.S. Air Force aircraft and assets, including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), are also providing aerial reconnaissance support to the operation.


U.S. Navy support:

The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), destroyer USS Higgins (DDG 76), frigate USS Underwood (FFG 36), cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60) and USNS Big Horn, a fleet oiler, are presently supporting the operation off the Haitian coast. Nineteen helicopters embarked on the carrier are also flying airlift missions in support of relief efforts. USNS Grasp, a salvage ship with an embarked FBI dive team, is in Haiti to conduct surveys and assessments necessary to repair the port.

An Amphibious Ready Group led by USS Bataan (LHD 5) and comprised of USS Carter Hall (LSD 50), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) and the cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) joining the mission Monday. USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) will assist the group. The ships form a "sea base" from which supplies can be moved ashore via helicopter and landing craft. Bataan also has a robust medical facility aboard. About 15 helicopters are assigned to the group.

To help meet the demand for immediate medical assistance, the hospital ship USNS Comfort, embarked with approximately 600 medical personnel, is steaming towards Haiti. Comfort is scheduled to arrive Jan. 20 with hospital capabilities that include fully-equipped operating rooms, a 1,000-bed facility, digital radiological services, a medical laboratory, a pharmacy, an optometry lab, a CAT-scan and two oxygen producing plants. The ship is equipped with a helicopter deck capable of landing large military helicopters.

The USNS Henson, an oceanographic survey ship, is also scheduled to arrive Jan. 20.

The USNS 1ST LT Jack Lummus, a container and roll-on/roll-off ship capable of offloading cargo without a port, will depart Jacksonville, Fla., Jan. 19 and will arrive at Port au Prince Jan. 22.


U.S. Army support:

About 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne and other U.S. Army units are in Haiti supporting humanitarian relief efforts. An estimated 3,000 soldiers are expected to deploy to Haiti to support Operation Unified Response.


U.S. Marine Corps support:

A Marine Expeditionary Unit, comprised of more than 2,200 Marines embarked aboard the ships of the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, began arriving in Haiti today. The Marines will bring heavy lift and earth-moving equipment, landing craft, vehicles, a dozen helicopters and additional medical support capabilities.


U.S. Coast Guard support:

Five U.S. Coast Guard Cutters (Forward, Mohawk, Tahoma, Valiant and Oak) and multiple aircraft crew, including seven C-130 fixed-wing aircraft crews, three MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crews, two MH-65 Dolphin crews and an HU-25 falcon jet crew are supporting relief operations. The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Forward arrived in Haiti shortly after the earthquake as the first U.S. asset on scene.

The recently arrived cutter Oak is in Port Au Prince and will deliver water and medical supplies in addition to conducting hydro surveys and service to Aids to Navigation. Oak has 20-ton operating crane built into it.

The Crimson Clover, a covered, roll-on/roll-off barge with two 46-foot extendable ramps and a top-loader for discharge operations, is in Port Au Prince and has begun unloading operations.

Seven Coast Guard C-130 airplanes are conducting evacuations of U.S. personnel and other support services as directed by the U.S. Embassy; a Coast Guard C-144 is conducting airborne surveillance and imagery of the port; and five Coast Guard helicopters are conducting evacuations and other support.

Coast Guard personnel continue to play significant roles supporting the U.S. government's assistance effort to Haiti.

Link
Quoting StormW:
Farewell...El Nino.



Huh? Wow.
Wow,Storm,that certainly is different from Dr.Masters blog thinking the El Nino would last right up until the beginning of hurricane season.
Yet...



Still there, but losing it's intensity.
Good morning...
If that El Nino trends continues... this HURR season might prove to be an active one compared to last year.
690. that is exactly the problem I was talking about during the last couple of winters in Finland. Even if it is colder in Southern and Central Finland, the problem lies in the North which is warming: when the permafrost soil in Lapland and also Northern parts of Russia melts, houses, roads and railroads get unstable, landslides can occur and polar animals migrate further North. If the extreme Northern parts of Europe and Russia warm further, living conditions will deteriorate because animals as well as humans depend on a stable permafrost soil. If it melts the whole region becomes a huge swamp uninhabitable for most species.

I think it was about two years ago that I read a paper in Finnish about the migration of certain species northwards during the last three decades or so. I would have to dig for it again to get a scientific opinion on the matter.

Whether we have global warming or not may be debatable but here we encounter a real threat: serious regional warming over the past decades which endangers unique habitats with their typical fauna and flora. The first effects can already be felt. And Northern Eurasia is not the only one suffering; I remember having read something about inhabitants in Northern Canada complaining about the melting of the permafrost soil rendering buildings and roads unstable. Was it in the comments on this blog or in one of the previous ones?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yet...



Still there, but losing it's intensity.


I'am still expecting a slightly above average year this season.
5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 52 km (32 miles) ESE (123°) from Bodden Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
64 km (40 miles) ESE (119°) from GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
72 km (45 miles) ESE (123°) from West Bay, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
351 km (218 miles) S (187°) from Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
706. P451
Quoting StormW:
Farewell...El Nino.




I remember you suggesting this could happen back in Sept or Oct.

Very interesting that as this occurs a typical el nino pineapple express event opened up.

Then again, us here in the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions have heard that our weather pattern is NOT in line with what we are to expect with El Nino.


This just shows we still don't know much about the weather at all.

Good morning all

Well we just had a 5.8 earthquake here. Our office and the ones adjacent all evacuated the buildings but we are back in now. My firm is on the 4th Floor and the building was really rocking.

We will probably get a couple of aftershocks during the day.

Not Aas bad as the one in 2004 but still not nice. I am at work in the EE post office and it was really shaking up here. My granddaughter at JGHS said a fan came down in a classroom.
709. P451
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 52 km (32 miles) ESE (123°) from Bodden Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
64 km (40 miles) ESE (119°) from GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
72 km (45 miles) ESE (123°) from West Bay, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
351 km (218 miles) S (187°) from Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba


These events are probably related. Haiti, Venezuela, and this event today.

It would appear the faults in the region remain relatively dormant but once they unzip they do so in a much wider area than most events.

These are domino effects IMO.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 52 km (32 miles) ESE (123°) from Bodden Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
64 km (40 miles) ESE (119°) from GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
72 km (45 miles) ESE (123°) from West Bay, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
351 km (218 miles) S (187°) from Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba

The Caribbean seems to be having a cause effect type earthquake since Haiti
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 52 km (32 miles) ESE (123°) from Bodden Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
64 km (40 miles) ESE (119°) from GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
72 km (45 miles) ESE (123°) from West Bay, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
351 km (218 miles) S (187°) from Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba


The Caribbean appears to be a bit more active this year.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

Well we just had a 5.8 earthquake here. Our office and the ones adjacent all evacuated the buildings but we are back in now. My firm is on the 4th Floor and the building was really rocking.

We will probably get a couple of aftershocks during the day.


I was just at the marina/the main building & various sailboats in the yard shook pretty good for a few seconds there.
Our housekeeper just called Honduras and was told that the earthquake was felt all the way over there.

It's all interconnected, Haiti and Dominican Republic should be on lookout
California may be the big boom. They are beyond overdue and I believe one day soon that place is going to make Haiti look like a baby
717. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:
California may be the big boom. They are beyond overdue and I believe one day soon that place is going to make Haiti look like a baby


I too, think this way, and I hope my concerns are incorrect.

Stress released in one region means stress has built up in another and needs to be released.
There has been a 5.8 earthquake off the Cayman Islands.
Oops, I see that was already announced.

I am seeing that the death toll is now 200,000.
Quoting P451:


I too, think this way, and I hope my concerns are incorrect.

Stress released in one region means stress has built up in another and needs to be released.


That's my concern too. It could happen tomorrow (at least according to TWC.)
721. P451
Quoting StormW:


Well, I feel it's in a beginning waning stage. Given the very warm water we've seen at the sub-surface, could be a slow cool down. It could last that long, however I think we may reach NEUTRAL with a warm bias by APR/MAY. Even if it did hold until the beginning of the upcoming hurricane season, by the time the peak months arrive...well...you know.


Relaxation of Atlantic wind shear?

Last season was a bad omen to me because so many systems tried to get going. Some persisting the in the face of elements that should have torn them apart before they even began.

Wind shear. Dry air. Dust/SAL. Mid level wind shear like we've never seen before.

Despite all that, as ragged as several looked, systems formed and tried to intensify.


I can only imagine what a devastating season it would have been if we had no wind shear or SAL or dry air to worry about.

You could tell last season wanted to POP and in a BIG WAY.

What if we have the same impulses but no limiting factors?

It won't be pretty.

Did anyone hear about a Caymans earthquake????
Quoting StormW:


Well, I feel it's in a beginning waning stage. Given the very warm water we've seen at the sub-surface, could be a slow cool down. It could last that long, however I think we may reach NEUTRAL with a warm bias by APR/MAY. Even if it did hold until the beginning of the upcoming hurricane season, by the time the peak months arrive...well...you know.

I agree with all of this...

Sure is a far cry from some of our more alarming progs in this blog on this Nino.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

Well we just had a 5.8 earthquake here. Our office and the ones adjacent all evacuated the buildings but we are back in now. My firm is on the 4th Floor and the building was really rocking.

We will probably get a couple of aftershocks during the day.



How are the buildings in the Caymans? a 5.8 could still damage some builds and destroy a few depending on how strong the building code is.


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 52 km (32 miles) ESE (123°) from Bodden Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
64 km (40 miles) ESE (119°) from GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
72 km (45 miles) ESE (123°) from West Bay, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
351 km (218 miles) S (187°) from Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 14:23:39 UTC
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 09:23:39 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.021°N, 80.846°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances 65 km (40 miles) ESE of GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands
315 km (195 miles) WNW of Montego Bay, Jamaica
350 km (215 miles) S of Cienfuegos, Cuba
750 km (465 miles) S of Miami, Florida

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.1 km (3.2 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=202, Nph=202, Dmin=360.5 km, Rmss=1.18 sec, Gp= 47°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2010rrbc

Quoting kmanislander:
Our housekeeper just called Honduras and was told that the earthquake was felt all the way over there.



Did you feel it?
Quoting ElConando:


How are the buildings in the Caymans? a 5.8 could still damage some builds and destroy a few depending on how strong the building code is.
Very excellent building code here although there are quite a few buildings that are not up to code. I am already hearing reports of minor damages to some. Broken windows and ceiling fans comin down. Don't know what else yet.
I've been saying everybody in the Caribbean basin on a fault line should be looking out. Historical perspective shows earthquakes / volcanic activity happens in clusters, around the basin. I guess it's a stress-relief thing.
There were several earthquakes in Yellowstone Today as well.

Jeez, its like the Earth is splitting apart.
lol signs ahead for 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Did anyone hear about a Caymans earthquake????
No, I din't hear about it. I FELT IT. lol Not nice.
there was a quake off guatemala a 5.8 if u didnt see that either
Quoting CaneWarning:


Did you feel it?


Sure did. Our building felt like a ship at sea. Fortunately most structures here are very strong and our offices are in a modern steel building rated to Cat 5 conditions.

No damage to our offices or the building as far as I am aware.
Quoting StormW:
Farewell...El Nino.




Good riddance, it was way to cold in Florida.

Neutral with a slightly warm bias this year is my guess for Hurricane Season.
Quoting kmanislander:


Sure did. Our building felt like a ship at sea. Fortunately most structures here are very strong and our offices are in a modern steel building rated to Cat 5 conditions.

No damage to our offices or the building as far as I am aware.


I am glad there is no damage! Hopefully no injuries either!
Dynamical models average more around June 1st for neutral.


As I had expected these models called the peak about 2 weeks early a few months back. I'll go with more mid June at the earliest for a return to neutral conditions, may could be closer to mid 'cane season as Masters suggests..

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good riddance, it was way to cold in Florida.

Neutral with a slightly warm bias this year is my guess for Hurricane Season.

Actually, I wouldn't attribute the cold in the south to Nino. More of a bipolar vortex (my word for the dipole, given the hot there, cold there effect) and AO effect.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I am glad there is no damage! Hopefully no injuries either!


I am on the Western end of Grand Cayman. The center was 40 miles ESE of my location but the rest of the island east of us was closer to it. Bodden Town was only 32 miles away from the center so there may well be some damage ( hopefully minor ) to structures further East of the Capitol.

I hope there are no injuries.
atmo~ is right. Can't blame that cold snap on El Nino.
Got down to 35 last night at Tallahassee airport. No reported temps below freezing.
Quoting ElConando:
Got down to 35 last night at Tallahassee airport. No reported temps below freezing.

Would anyone like to know what my weather is going to be like for the rest of the week?
new blog
Quoting P451:


Relaxation of Atlantic wind shear?

Last season was a bad omen to me because so many systems tried to get going. Some persisting the in the face of elements that should have torn them apart before they even began.

Wind shear. Dry air. Dust/SAL. Mid level wind shear like we've never seen before.

Despite all that, as ragged as several looked, systems formed and tried to intensify.


I can only imagine what a devastating season it would have been if we had no wind shear or SAL or dry air to worry about.

You could tell last season wanted to POP and in a BIG WAY.

What if we have the same impulses but no limiting factors?

It won't be pretty.



Persistent eastcoast trof. If a ridge just happens to set up in the Western Atlantic at 500 mb during that period, there will likely be landfalls. If a trough sets up on or just off the east coast, any storms will not make landfall, except in the West Gulf. Just plain luck and chance. The long wave position is always changing, and rarely stays in one place more than 10-14 days.

adrian
Quoting kmanislander:
Our housekeeper just called Honduras and was told that the earthquake was felt all the way over there.



Good morning, kman! You have WUMail

So everyone is alright? Your family is alright and safe, yes?
I am such a big fan of Cecil Adams and the Straight Dope. Today's article from the SD Science Advisory Board deals with Pat Robertson and his claim about a pact with the Devil. A very good read.

What's this "pact with the devil" that Pat Robertson says caused Haiti's woes?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would anyone like to know what my weather is going to be like for the rest of the week?
Let me take a guess, Cyclone Lawrence has re-intensified and is headed toward the coast for yet another landfall? JK...:)
Quoting Floodman:


Good morning, kman! You have WUMail

So everyone is alright? Your family is alright and safe, yes?
Floodmaaaan!........Wuzzzz-up? Is it me or have we had a lot of earthquakes past couple years?
No one seems to have posted for a while.