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Debby stalls, drenches Florida; 114° in Colorado ties state heat record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

Tropical storm warnings continue to fly from Alabama eastward to Suwannee, Florida, as Tropical Storm Debby sits motionless over the Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, Debby spawned a multitude of severe thunderstorms over much of Florida, which brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Sunday, and a tornado in Venus, Florida killed one person. Venus is in Central Florida, between Port St. Lucie and Sarasota. Another person is missing in Alabama, swept away by rough surf. The heaviest rains of Debby affected the Tampa Bay region, where over ten inches were reported at several locations. The Tampa Bay airport picked up 7.11 inches on Sunday. It's a good thing this isn't the week of the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled for late August in Tampa! Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at three rivers near Tampa, and flooding has been limited by the fact the region is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby has totaled over 6 inches (orange colors) along a swath from Tampa to Ocala.

Winds from Debby have fallen considerably since Sunday, thanks to a slug of dry air that wrapped into Debby's core, disrupting the storm. Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows that winds at almost all buoys and coastal stations along the Gulf Coast were below 30 mph at 8am EDT. The exception was a Personal Weather Station at Bald Point, near Apalachiacola, Florida, which reported sustained winds of 32 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby has measured top surface winds of 43 mph as of 9 am EDT. Visible satellite loops show Debby has virtually no heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation, which will severely limit its potential for intensification today. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are mostly on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the west creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that continues to drive dry air into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. Ocean temperatures are about 27.5°C (81°F) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get.


Figure 2. True-color visible Aqua satellite image of Debby taken at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 24, 2012. At the time, Debby had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, though tornadoes will continue to be a threat over the next few days. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather today. The slow motion of Debby will inhibit intensification of the storm by stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday. I expect Debby will begin to build heavy thunderstorms near its core today and Tuesday, with the winds increasing again to 60 mph by Wednesday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby just a 4% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, a the storm should hang out in its current location for several more days. The models continue to have a large spread in where they thing Debby might eventual make landfall, and the official NHC forecast may have large errors for its positions at the 3 - 5 day range.

Colorado's 114°: hottest temperature in state history
The remarkable heat wave that affected Colorado on Saturday and Sunday has tied the all-time heat record for the state. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954.

Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The city has hit 100° four other times, most recently on July 24, 2003. The record heat in Colorado Springs exacerbated a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles on Sunday, driving 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes.

In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained.

La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990.

The heat wave extended into neighboring Kansas, where Hill City hit 114°, tying its all-time warmest June temperature. Tribune, Kansas hit 109°, tying its all-time hottest temperature. Goodland, Kansas hit 109°, its hottest June temperature on record.

Two more days of exceptional heat are predicted for Colorado and Kansas, with the forecast for Denver calling for a high of 101 - 104° on Monday. The city hit 102° on Sunday, just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in Denver, the 105° readings on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878.

Jeff Masters
Waves
Waves
Tropical Storm Debby churns the gulf in Gulf Shores, AL.
Debby Pounding West Coast1
Debby Pounding West Coast1
High Park Fire
High Park Fire
In this June 19, 2012 photo provided by the Colorado National Guard, an aircraft drops a load of fire retardant slurry above the High Park wildfire about 15 miles west of Fort Collins, Colo. The ammonium phosphate dropped from airplanes to slow the spread of raging wildfires can turn a pristine mountain stream into a death zone for trout and some say the retardant has never been proven effective. (AP Photo/Colorado National Guard, John Rohrer)

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Quoting fredric1979:
who keeps flipping the channel @ TWC master control between Mike Slidel and the San Francisco Giants baseball game thats at least the third time I have caught the interference.


That exec up at Bain with the Master Switch why of Course.

Dint' we jus cover dat a page back or so?
Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive the separation of energy that could lead to a second low is happening, it almost seems like the GFS had a crystal ball.



Was a small MCV by Ferdinand Beach and St Marys this morning. Lots of spinning in the area. CMC shows a low developing and shooting northeastward.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Thanks Patrap... Shows center offshore, nearly due south of Apalachicola. Btw... Getting ready to get blasted by a strong squall over here on the Space Coast.


i totally agree with patrap the coc is still very much offshore..
I could be very wrong, but I call it as I see it! Out for now.
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

Its blasting here in T-ville... thin but powerful... starting to remind me of Fay...


Just about to in MI... saw there was a reported tornado up there at 50/I-95 last night.
The circulation isn't falling apart but the clouds are finally starting to cover the circulation for the first time ever.
Link
I wonder what our Cape Verde season will be like this year?
Quoting MississippiWx:
I could be very wrong, but I call it as I see it! Out for now.


I do not think Debby has made landfall yet because there has been no special statement from the NHC.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Just about to in MI... saw there was a reported tornado up there at 50/I-95 last night.

Yeah... it was late like ~11:45PM... no real damage... no one hurt... thankfully... rain-wrapped, late night... ugly...
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDebby for 25June6pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from East at 3mph(4.8km/h) to NNEast at 5.5mph(8.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 40knots(46mph)74km/h
MinimumPressure had increased from 994millibars to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Debby's path...
ECP PanamaCity :: A51 PortSaintJoe :: FA43 DogIsland :: 2J0 Wakulla :: KBKV Brooksville

The SWesternmost dot on the line-segments is where Invest96L became TropicalStormDebby
SSWesternmost dot on the longest(northernmost)line-segment is TS.Debby's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS/Debby's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The ECP-dumbbell is the endpoint of 25June6amGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The KBKV-dumbbell is the endpoint of 25June12pmGMT's straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 25June6pmGMT, TS.Debby was heading toward passage over DogIsland in ~10hours from now

Copy&paste mob, apf, pbi, ecp-30.202n85.854w, khrt-30.393n86.589w, 2j0-30.084n84.115w, fpy-29.98n83.809w, a51-29.673n85.206w, ecp-30.171n85.8w, kbkv-28.57n82.656w,fa43, 26.0n87.6w-26.5n87.4w, 26.5n87.4w-27.0n87.3w, 27.0n87.3w-27.8n86.5w, 27.8n86.5w-28.3n85.9w, 28.3n85.9w-28.5n85.8w, 28.5n85.8w-28.6n85.8w, 28.6n85.8w-28.6n85.5w, 28.6n85.5w-29.0n85.2w, 28.6n85.5w-29.803n84.59w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
And the previous mapping for comparison.
Hey Pat & everyone....
Just north of Destin, on the bay. Less than an inch of rain from Debby, we are getting some of the strongest wind guest we've had, about 30-35mph, my anemometer has seen better days.
The bay is up about 2, maybe 2 1/2 feet.
There's been some beach erosion, but all in all this part of the coast has not seen much action from Debby.
Sad to say that's not the case for much of the state.... she is still hammering some folks.
Some one put her in gear & stop the stall!
Quoting Patrap:
Seems the brainwashing continues at a accelerated rate.





What's happening to Debby reminds me of the song "Pinball Wizard" by The Who... she's just darting all over the place like she's being smacked around by various paddles in the big ol' pinball machine that is the GOM.

She's filled in now... for the first time ever, I wonder if the next step will be to try and build an eyewall.
Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive the separation of energy that could lead to a second low is happening, it almost seems like the GFS had a crystal ball.

Do you think we can Ernesto from it?
1014. Patrap
Be safe BF, shes a gonna be round a spell seems.
1015. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:


That exec up at Bain with the Master Switch why of Course.

Dint' we jus cover dat a page back or so?


someone said it was boudreaux's fault....
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


It would be cost prohibitive initially. Look at computers and plasma TVs. Those things were expensive 10 years ago, now almost everyone owns one.

We might not even be using radar if we privatized NOAA. Maybe the free market would find something more cost effective while also more efficient.
Computers as we know them were developed by government dollars for government purposes. The same with the internet, also a government (DARPA) creation. Plasma TVs were invented at the University of Illinois, but the technology was supported during its early years by the US military--that is, the government.

It's a fallacy to believe that the free market working alone in a vacuum will raise the standard of living for all. Mankind languished for tens of thousands of years before government was invented. While there is certainly waste at every level, there's been far more good than bad to come from it.
Debby has a chance of reaching Hurricane Status as she drifts sw/s and eventually se and east.

Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

Yeah... it was late like ~11:45PM... no real damage... no one hurt... thankfully... rain-wrapped, late night... ugly...


Was up that way earlier today, and I hadn't noticed anything either. Thankfully. And all this rain is a good thing here on the Space Coast. Not so much for others...
1019. rxse7en
Quoting LostTomorrows:
What's happening to Debby reminds me of the song "Pinball Wizard" by The Who... she's just darting all over the place like she's being smacked around by various paddles in the big ol' pinball machine that is the GOM.

She's filled in now... for the first time ever, I wonder if the next step will be to try and build an eyewall.
We won't get fooled again...
Quoting yoboi:


someone said it was boudreaux's fault....

It was!!!!!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Pat & everyone....
Just north of Destin, on the bay. Less than an inch of rain from Debby, we are getting some of the strongest wind guest we've had, about 30-35mph, my anemometer has seen better days.
The bay is up about 2, maybe 2 1/2 feet.
There's been some beach erosion, but all in all this part of the coast has not seen much action from Debby.
Sad to say that's not the case for much of the state.... she is still hammering some folks.
Some one put her in gear & stop the stall!


She was drifting NW but is now drifting SW again.
1022. Patrap
..That's no Moon.



1024. Patrap
It's pretty toasty in Arkansas this afternoon. A few examples:

Little Rock: 104
Fort Smith: 104
Arkadelphia: 104
Jacksonville: 106
Searcy: 106
Russellville: 107

It's not just Arkansas, either: Corpus Christi is at 102; many parts of eastern Kansas are again baking at over 100; and nearly every station in both Kansas and Oklahoma is in the triple digits. But fear not, for next week looks even more fun:

hot
Looks as the the COC is trying to get under the CDOC! Looks to be getting close to land tho.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Was up that way earlier today, and I hadn't noticed anything either. Thankfully. And all this rain is a good thing here on the Space Coast. Not so much for others...

I live on S Park Ave... about 2.5 mi from I-95/50... The storm that brought the spinner was about the same caliber as the current band... but it was a small cell that barreled NNE from Lone Cabbage...
1029. yoboi
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

It was!!!!!


ya should do stand-up....ya def have funny jokes..
Quoting rxse7en:
I was just saying that you can see that there's no COC over land under that convection, sorry.
it almost seems to have either nudged the LLC south a little or reformed a little further south and is trying to wrap around on the last radar loops on post 982
1031. RevInFL
Just had some major rain go through here in Titusville, FL. Got about a 1/2 inch in 10minutes.
1032. Patrap
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


She was drifting NW but is now drifting SW again.


Looks to me like the center is getting pulled into the convection which has been one of the story lines of Debby.
1034. Patrap



Out of NWS Tampa a short while ago:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING ARE OFFICIAL 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 2 PM OF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES THROUGH THE USGS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE COCORAHS AND OTHER SPOTTER REPORTS.

SITE ID CITY RAIN
BKV BROOKSVILLE 15.13
BTRF1 TARPON SPRINGS 14.28
MKYF1 LARGO 13.66
OLDF1 OLDSMAR 12.60
PNBF1 PINELLAS PARK 12.28
CCKF1 DUNEDIN 12.27
TRPF1 TARPON SPRNG SEWAGE 12.23
TMTF1 TAMPA DAM 12.21
RHPF1 SULPHUR SPRINGS 11.61
CRCF1 DUNEDIN 11.05
RERF1 RERDELL 10.94
SJOF1 PINELLAS PARK 10.71
PIE ST PETERSBURG 10.61
TPA TAMPA WSCMO AP 10.07
TBFF1 OLDSMAR 9.96
WIMF1 WIMAUMA 9.79
MORF1 MORRIS BRIDGE 9.78
RRCF1 PINELLAS PARK 9.49
ELRF1 TAMPA 9.49
SWNF1 SUWANNEE 9.45
SPG ST. PETERSBURG 9.24
LITF1 LITHIA 9.13
LWDF1 BRADENTON 8.97
MCF TAMPA/MACDILL AFB 8.59
DLYF1 TAMPA 7.64
DLNF1 TAMPA 7.50
NACF1 TAMPA 7.24
GIF WINTER HAVEN 7.04
FTMF1 FORT MEADE 6.54
PGD PUNTA GORDA 5.77
BARF1 BARTOW 5.77
MKCF1 MYAKKA RIVER STATE P 5.34
TBW RUSKIN 5.21
LWEF1 LAKE WALES 5.18
FMY FORT MYERS FAA/AP 4.99
NPRF1 NORTH PORT 4.89
SRQ SARASOTA/BRADENTON 4.70
FRUF1 LORRAINE 3.39
NPOF1 NORTH PORT 3.25

-------------------------

Meanwhile, Naples has officially received a whopping 2" or so since the event began a week ago.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Computers as we know them were developed by government dollars for government purposes. The same with the internet, also a government (DARPA) creation. Plasma TVs were invented at the University of Illinois, but the technology was supported during its early years by the US military--that is, the government.

It's a fallacy to believe that the free market working alone in a vacuum will raise the standard of living for all. Mankind languished for tens of thousands of years before government was invented. While there is certainly waste at every level, there's been far more good than bad to come from it.


Sure the government helped fund R&D for many technological advancements, many of which have improved the standard of living, but it misallocates resources. Instead of $$$ going to something that might have been a greater need for society, it went to something that had a lesser importance.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Yes central planners. What else do you calm them?

I know where AccuWeather and TWC get there information. Why would they launch their own satellites when they can have the government steal money (yes friends, taxation is theft) and do it for them.

I just don't see why we need a central authority (is that better?) to do R&D. If there is a need, the market will provide. It is not like humans are a bunch of clueless idiots. The same great minds at the NWS would do just as well, if not better, at a private agency without constant government oversight. There is a HUGE need for weather forecasting. Just like there is a need for food, but we don't have the government running grocery stores or farms.


Whatever .............

I come here to keep up with the weather and storms. This isn't the place.

Click link. Click animate. Zoom out a three notches.

Wundermap Satellite. Pin=Apalachicola
Might just be me, but I believe that Debby has made landfall.
1042. kwgirl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Out of NWS Tampa a short while ago:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING ARE OFFICIAL 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 2 PM OF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES THROUGH THE USGS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE COCORAHS AND OTHER SPOTTER REPORTS.

SITE ID CITY RAIN
BKV BROOKSVILLE 15.13
BTRF1 TARPON SPRINGS 14.28
MKYF1 LARGO 13.66
OLDF1 OLDSMAR 12.60
PNBF1 PINELLAS PARK 12.28
CCKF1 DUNEDIN 12.27
TRPF1 TARPON SPRNG SEWAGE 12.23
TMTF1 TAMPA DAM 12.21
RHPF1 SULPHUR SPRINGS 11.61
CRCF1 DUNEDIN 11.05
RERF1 RERDELL 10.94
SJOF1 PINELLAS PARK 10.71
PIE ST PETERSBURG 10.61
TPA TAMPA WSCMO AP 10.07
TBFF1 OLDSMAR 9.96
WIMF1 WIMAUMA 9.79
MORF1 MORRIS BRIDGE 9.78
RRCF1 PINELLAS PARK 9.49
ELRF1 TAMPA 9.49
SWNF1 SUWANNEE 9.45
SPG ST. PETERSBURG 9.24
LITF1 LITHIA 9.13
LWDF1 BRADENTON 8.97
MCF TAMPA/MACDILL AFB 8.59
DLYF1 TAMPA 7.64
DLNF1 TAMPA 7.50
NACF1 TAMPA 7.24
GIF WINTER HAVEN 7.04
FTMF1 FORT MEADE 6.54
PGD PUNTA GORDA 5.77
BARF1 BARTOW 5.77
MKCF1 MYAKKA RIVER STATE P 5.34
TBW RUSKIN 5.21
LWEF1 LAKE WALES 5.18
FMY FORT MYERS FAA/AP 4.99
NPRF1 NORTH PORT 4.89
SRQ SARASOTA/BRADENTON 4.70
FRUF1 LORRAINE 3.39
NPOF1 NORTH PORT 3.25

-------------------------

Meanwhile, Naples has officially received a whopping 2" or so since the event began a week ago.
I can't believe it! Naples has only gotten 2 inches. Nea, how is that possible! Ft. Myers was getting it. Tampa was getting it. Aren't you in the neighborhood of them?
Well, luckily for Naples, water runs down hill and so all that water up North may be flowing in your direction. LOL At least into the Glades.
Any NWard movement is going to come to a halt real quick, the ridge is bringing down the hammer.

WV LOOP
Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:
Might just be me, but I believe that Debby has made landfall.
Please quit saying things that are not true
1045. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Sure the government helped fund R&D for many technological advancements, many of which have improved the standard of living, but it misallocates resources. Instead of $$$ going to something that might have been a greater need for society, it went to something that had a lesser importance.


who decides the greater need? sounds like communist.
1046. Rebeler
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.
When looking at the Tallahassee radar loop, in Base Velocity mode, it still indicates that the CoC is offshore south of Apalachicola. You will see echoes still moving north over the western Apalachee Bay and as well to the SE of Apalachicola over the GOMEX.
Deby still looks to be SSW of Port St. Joe. Hardly moving.

Convection starting to move over the center. Land friction and afternoon heating helping a bit. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight.
1049. rxse7en
Quoting fredric1979:
it almost seems to have either nudged the LLC south a little or reformed a little further south and is trying to wrap around on the last radar loops on post 982
If it can start spinning and wrapping at midlevel we may have problems. It's also starting to fill in in the SE and S quadrants with some upper level stuff. If there's upwelling restricting her the convection just on shore may be compensating and keeping her alive. The upper level convection streaming NE from the Yucatan is also starting to get wrapped in which may indicate that Debby is developing a decent midlevel.
1050. shawn26
When will the HH be back in the storm?
1051. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
Do you think we can Ernesto from it?


Usually I would say I doubt it, but with how this year is going I will say, who knows, lets watch it. What does seem to be the case right now is that its presence is hurting Debby since the strongest convergence is concentrated with it.
Quoting flowrida:
Please quit saying things that are not true


Let's see what the NHC says in a few minutes. Sure looks to me that the center is right on the coast.
Quoting shawn26:
When will the HH be back in the storm?
HH have suspended all missions
Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:
Might just be me, but I believe that Debby has made landfall.


I think you are just lacking some much needed sleep and you need to take a break for a while...
Where is the ridge that will force Debby southward?
Quoting flowrida:
Please quit saying things that are not true



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall
Quoting Rebeler:
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.

To keep you coming back here to this blog...
west.winds.here.e.cen.fl.oh.dont.forget.monsoon
Quoting yoboi:


who decides the greater need? sounds like communist.


The c word. *shudders* :P

The free market, i.e. what people need or want. I don't think we need a central authority to determine that. Weather forecasting is a HUGE need and want.
Quoting Tazmanian:



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall
You guys just wishcasters
Quoting Patrap:
..That's no Moon.





Thats a space station!
1062. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



infac he may be right the storm may have made landfall


where did it make landfall?
1063. pcola57
Quoting Rebeler:
Longer time lurker.. I just do not understand why us in Miami are in the cone.


It's a sloppy storm and their not sure of where it might end up going..
Covering their rears :)
Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Whatever .............

I come here to keep up with the weather and storms. This isn't the place.



Which is why you go to blogspot, blog there, meet real friends and are never interupted with 'New Blog' or politic talk comes over. I find blogspot to be a much better blogging environment then here. With the exception of Jeff Masters, who writes very good WEATHER blogs and responds when you send a message!

Good work Dr Masters!
1065. emguy
Quoting jrweatherman:


Let's see what the NHC says in a few minutes. Sure looks to me that the center is right on the coast.


I agree totally. It looks like we are in the process of a center relocation on the coast (just inland) between Apachicola and St. Marks as we speak. Right on the Wakulla/Franklin County Line.
1066. kwgirl
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.
1067. Rebeler
Quoting pcola57:


It's a sloppy storm and their not sure of where it might end up going..
Covering their rears :)


Thanks Pcola57.
Quoting flowrida:
You guys just wishcasters



where not wishcaster you the wishcaster
Quoting flowrida:
HH have suspended all missions


what? why?
The radar loop from post #1032 certainly makes it seem like the center nearly brushed land, but has now jogged back SW a hair.
Quoting yoboi:


where did it make landfall?



looks like the storm made lanfall well N of the NHC forcast track
Quoting frankelrue:


I think you are just lacking some much needed sleep and you need to take a break for a while...


And I believe you need to lose the rudeness BOY.
Even if Debby is on the coast, it will still meander around and could even move back offshore.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


what? why?


The next mission departs at 6:45 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 26/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A DEBBY
C. 25/2245Z
D. 28.5N 86.2W
E. 25/2315Z TO 26/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
I don't think she's made landfall. I do think however, that the LLCC is trying to move under the deepest convection. I think it is just southwest of the Big Bend of FL.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Looks to me like the center is getting pulled into the convection which has been one of the story lines of Debby.


No I think the convection is getting pulled into Debby for the first time.
Link
Quoting kwgirl:
I can't believe it! Naples has only gotten 2 inches. Nea, how is that possible! Ft. Myers was getting it. Tampa was getting it. Aren't you in the neighborhood of them?
Well, luckily for Naples, water runs down hill and so all that water up North may be flowing in your direction. LOL At least into the Glades.
I've been out of town since last week. I'll be home briefly on Wednesday, then I'm off again for a longer trip. But while away I've been watching things closely. All I can say is that for a long time yesterday, the radar showed storms developing just to the north of Collier County and streaming northward. It happens...

According to NWS, Naples is still looking at a 2.75" deficit for the month, and 5.29" since January 1. Oh, well...
Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


How are you? Friend.

Quoting flowrida:
HH have suspended all missions




no they have not
Hey y'all.........this is blog is moving too fast for me. Can't keep up.

I'll be in weatherchat if anyone wants to join me....
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Where is the ridge that will force Debby southward?
That ridge was squashed basically. Instead of being elongated E - W, it is elongated N - S. This basically means, that the trough has it.
1082. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


The c word. *shudders* :P

The free market, i.e. what people need or want. I don't think we need a central authority to determine that. Weather forecasting is a HUGE need and want.


i am really trying to understand your thinking process; what is a central authority?? is that a person that is a boss and has to make the tough calls or do we not need a boss just all freelance people?? you confuse me.....
1083. kwgirl
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How are you? Friend.


Fine and you:)
Debby has not made landfall yet. The National Hurricane Center has not issued any kind of statement saying that it has.
Appears Thunderstorms are now at the northwest part of the center, and she is now drifting S yet again.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 85.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Water Vapor showing a clear surgence of added moisture coming from the South toward the LLC....this might get very interesting when that happens.
I think Debby has seen her last dance in the GOM! Very good chance she will reappear in the Atlantic and assume her name again but when you look at at IR her tops are being blown away. There is a good chance she appear brifly in a few days.
29.3 N 85.1W
Wow, it's been a while since we've had a storm like this, that hurricane season was just unbelievable! Even though Ike and Gustav were significant hurricanes, they don't compare to the terror and panic Ivan caused to the North-East Gulf Coast, I remember everyone was so alarmed because it was a category 5 entering the Gulf of Mexico. I remember I had just moved from the Florida Panhandle to Illinois just a couple of months before this struck and we were worried our house which we were renting out was going to be damaged.
img src="">
Quoting kwgirl:
Fine and you:)


Just got back from the Gym, wanted to go swimming but its just so humid outside here in South Florida.
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like the storm made lanfall well N of the NHC forcast track

There is no landfall
1095. barbamz
Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


Thats right and very nice. I've never been to the GOM and I wonder if I (from Germany) ever will. I had no idea of the region and the people some years ago. But this has changed *dramatically* because of this blog (despite of the biggering at some times ;-) Everywhere someone quite familiar is living.
1096. oakland
Quoting kwgirl:
I think this storm has proven to me that either 1. I need to get a life or 2. That I think of certain people on here as friends even if I haven't met you face to face. Prime example is Nea. This weekend I was thinking that Naples would finally be getting rain and Nea should be happy. I also thought of Largo, Fl. when they mentioned it on the news, hoping they wouldn't get too much water. I happened to think of TampaSpin and all the other people I know who are in Tampa, hoping that the wind would not push the bay into their homes. All these things I think about everytime I am watching TWC at home. Sorry, but I have no computer at home so that is my only way to see radar. I just don't listen too closely.


I do the same thing and have made many online friends that way over the years. Oh, and yes, sometimes I think I need a life too. :)
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
LOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A
MEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB...
WITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE
STORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 29.3N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/
LOCATION...29.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

486
WTNT44 KNHC 252052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
LOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A
MEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB...
WITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE
STORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY
CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED
DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE
FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 29.3N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/
Quoting TampaSpin:
Water Vapor showing a clear surgence of added moisture coming from the South toward the LLC....this might get very interesting when that happens.


Center will continue to drift.
1101. ncstorm
the forecast has speeded up..they now got Debby back over open water on Thursday
Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:


Which is why you go to blogspot, blog there, meet real friends and are never interupted with 'New Blog' or politic talk comes over. I find blogspot to be a much better blogging environment then here. With the exception of Jeff Masters, who writes very good WEATHER blogs and responds when you send a message!

Good work Dr Masters!


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........
1103. kwgirl
Good night all. I hope Debby gets moving but I think Florida is in for some major flooding. I will try blowing North so the storm moves LOL :)
742 WPBHurricane05: ...Ludwig Von Mises and Murray Rothbard. Good stuff, especially the non-aggression

Yeah, so is "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need."
Darn near anything is good ifn ya don't hafta ground it in reality. The Lord of the Rings is better stuff, and far more realistic than anything put out by either the AustrianSchool or the ChicagoSchool.
But I don't live in fairyland.
1105. tea3781
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 74 72 93 NE35G66 29.42R SQUALL VSB 1/2

Gusting to 66mph!!!!
5:00PM ADVISORY
(click to enlarge)
"IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND THE GFS"
.
.
Now the NHC is showing some respect for the GFS.
I have a feeling we'll see similar comments in discussions to come this year..
1109. divdog
Quoting tea3781:
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 74 72 93 NE35G66 29.42R SQUALL VSB 1/2

Gusting to 66mph!!!!
Keep us posted!!
dont take your eye off debbie...she's in the gulf
Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........


You might enjoy this.
Still raining cats and dogs in Tallahassee..
1114. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:


Thats right and very nice. I've never been to the GOM and I wonder if I (from Germany) ever will. I had no idea of the region and the people some years ago. But this has changed *dramatically* because of this blog (despite of the biggering at some times ;-) Everywhere someone quite familiar is living.



The variety and diversity of the cultures and population of the Gulf is remarkable. Hardly any two places are the sames. Beautful beaches, tremendous industries and fascinating people. You should try it sometime. (Wie geht's meine Freundin?)
back to a tropical storm in the a.ocean!!
Lovely weather in Tallahassee, today. Just got off of work. How's everyone doing?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Still raining cats and dogs in Tallahassee..


Careful over there. It doesn't show signs up letting up anytime soon either. WU radar estimations show over 15" have fallen south of Tall on the coast. 7.54" here since last night.
1118. rxse7en
That ridge and dry air is starting to shred her nw quadrant. SHREDDING
Tallahassee (southwest) and Liberty County getting dumped on


No rain over there?

Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Lovely weather in Tallahassee, today. Just got off of work. How's everyone doing?
Debbie is really blowing up.. And flooding the Eastern Panhandle...

1123. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Central authority is someone like Mayor Bloomberg who puts restrictions on how much soda I can drink. I'd rather people make their own choices, as long as those choices don't initiate force against someone else.

My thinking process comes from the non-aggression principle, and yes, we do use the internet.


every action causes a reaction. force is always initiated; are you saying we should all be zombies?? i am really trying to understand this and how your thinking could benefit weather forcasting, i am confused.
I continue to wonder what will happen with Debby once she reemerges into the Atlantic. It appears as though the storm may be left behind by the trough and create more forecasting problems.


nice large daytime convective cell over panhandle of fla this should vanish with the setting sun
Wow. The tropical storm force winds are entirely in the TS Warning area.

Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
No rain over there?



sorry, should've used sarcasm flag...

Absolutely pouring all day!

looking at radar and Debby's slow-moving self....doesn't look to be getting better any time soon.
There is a lot of heavy storms approaching South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico,they look very nasty!!!, I just wondering if they will reach South Florida or they will died before reaching land,the atmosphere today seems to be more conducive for the storm not to died,not much dry air on the East Coast of Florida like we had yesterday.
1130. Grothar
if i were in the northern bahamas and the miami area i would not let my guard down...you are in the cone for a reason...i would not at all be surprised if the high strengthens to the north of debby and pushes her se towards southern florida..i have a bad feeling about debby ..she will be floridas nightmare for a long time to come...i reall feel debby will become a hurricane before moving out the gulf towards south florida...
sun is shining here in bradenton. wind is around 25 mph with higher gusts. Under a tropical storm warning and a few squalls look to be coming ashore soon near the Tampa Bay Area.
1133. ncstorm
She has stopped moving N... Most likely due to the ridge.

Quoting FSUCOOPman:


sorry, should've used sarcasm flag...

Absolutely pouring all day!

looking at radar and Debby's slow-moving self....doesn't look to be getting better any time soon.


I was gonna say......... :)
Debby would appear to now be drawing some of her strength from the Western Atlantic. This second plume of moisture is helping her a lot.
1137. Grothar
There has to be tremendous amounts of rain falling in the same place for a long time. That yellow indicates very cold cloud tops.

Quoting GulfCoastPirate:


Maybe. I was a physics and economics major so I generally don't mind political/economic discussions. They ask you not to do it here so I try not to but with some of the nonsense floating around today it's hard to keep quiet sometimes. The problem with the Mises types is they have no mathematics to back up anything they say. All they know is they hate taxes and government so they just make things up as they go along. Ron Paul is my congressman so I've heard it all over the years. Even when someone else pointed out to him that almost all human advancement has come about since the introdcution of government he just went off on his merry way with more nonsense. Unbelievable.

Now back to the weather ........


The economic system and human action is far too complex for mathematics, let alone forecasting. Until someone comes up with an equation that can account for the individual wants and desires of 7 billion people I might change my mind.
If only it was over the center.



Based on the ball of convection hovered over the big bend, and how it's expanding, I think the higher rainfall totals will need to be moved a tad west on this.
Quoting StormHunter89:


The economic system and human action is far too complex for mathematics, let alone forecasting. Until someone comes up with an equation that can account for the individual wants and desires of 7 billion people I might change my mind.


Bingo!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If only it was over the center.



maybe a new center or relocation???
seems she is about too run out of ocean
Don't be surprised if Debby fires up more convection that covers up the center tonight.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Getting the government out of the way of weather forecasting (well, anything really) will encourage innovation in the field ... The free market best fulfills this need...central planning always leads to the misallocation of resources.
False, false, and false. Quite demonstrably so in all three cases.
Quoting Grothar:
There has to be tremendous amounts of rain falling in the same place for a long time. That yellow indicates very cold cloud tops.



My heart goes out to whoever is under that
1148. rxse7en
Jax Beach this morning.
PHOTO
Interesting tidbit from the most recent discussion:
"AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC."
Quoting Hurricane1956:
There is a lot of heavy storms approaching South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico,they look very nasty!!!, I just wondering if they will reach South Florida or they will died before reaching land,the atmosphere today seems to be more conducive for the storm not to died,not much dry air on the East Coast of Florida like we had yesterday.
A LOT!! of moisture coming from the South West Gulf of Mexico,this should help Debby in the long run in my opinion!!.
It wasn't long ago that I went to libertarian and Ron Paul websites defending the existence of NOAA and other government agencies. It wasn't until I understood the non-aggression principle and read Rothbard in addition to other classical liberal economists/philosophers that I changed my opinion. I was once a hardcore left leaning Democrat too.
1152. tea3781
APALACHICOLA HVY RAIN 73 72 94 NE20G28 29.39F FOG

The air pressure is 29.39 in Apalachicola and falling..

thats 995.2 millibars.....
Based on what I see on the Tallahassee NEXRAD Base Velocity loop, almost appears as if the center is offshore SE of Apalachicola, and based on the obs from APK, with a NE wind, that would explain the NE winds. Any thoughts?
wow check out that explosion of convection over the Tallahassee area. Wow Debby, your a very interesting one.
Are any of you having problems with the Floater loop buttons on Debby not working by not lining up correctly....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/java -rgb-short.html
1156. dewfree
Perspective is in eye of the beholder to the degree 3/4 percent .

Depends on if you think the gadgets of electronic age are the real way of life or horses and arrows .I think most would be shoveling poo is why the electronic age is so attractive to the end result of the other !



that being said . i don't care where the storm really goes, so long as she makes 1 landfall at or near where i said Fri .verification would be nice . but hey where ever she goes ,it will be a slow ride !

deductive reasoning over tech terms and explanations of why Debby did this or that is way bigger thing .
At least they thought so during the eighteen hundreds,in a time of thinkers !Thanks to them, you are not shoveling poo !I believe it is because of them that you and I are watching Debby right now .
1157. oakland
Quoting AllStar17:
I continue to wonder what will happen with Debby once she reemerges into the Atlantic. It appears as though the storm may be left behind by the trough and create more forecasting problems.


Depends on how ragged she is and how long she sits over the gulf stream.
debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If only it was over the center.

thankfully.not
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.


I agree 100% with that.
Hows the surge along that Big Bend of Florida?
1162. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


No one is forcing you to be on this blog. You voluntarily (key word) came here. Taxes are an initiation of force since I have to pay them, and if I don't I'm hauled off to a cage.

Getting the government out of the way of weather forecasting (well, anything really) will encourage innovation in the field since there is a need and a want for weather forecasts. The free market best fulfills this need since central planning always leads to the misallocation of resources.


yeah but if it was not for the military/gov i would not be on the internet, keyword- voluntarily. what i am understanding ya think we should just not have any laws or rules too follow just everybody do there own thing???
1163. Walshy
41.19 inches of rain...

Quoting uncwhurricane85:
debbie might be more of a problem wind wise for sc/nc shore than in florida.


Aside from the isolated tornadoes in Florida, I think this is a fair assessment. Rain, flooding event here, though, for sure.
1165. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:



The variety and diversity of the cultures and population of the Gulf is remarkable. Hardly any two places are the sames. Beautful beaches, tremendous industries and fascinating people. You should try it sometime. (Wie geht's meine Freundin?)


You're right, Grothar, and, maybe, I chose to visit you some time, so hang on, my dear, as old as you are or may be :-)
I have to prepare some of books for publishing in the moment, so few time, but yesterday I relaxed following the discussions on dear Debby. Better than to read a thriller. Weather in Germany is a bit boring in the moment. Nothing extreme, which is good of course. Especially: no drought. I love rain, but not so much as has been falling in Tampa yesterday.
1-hour totals in the panhandle are starting to hit 4 inches. Storm totals in many areas based on radar are at least 15 inches.
Quoting Walshy:
41.19 inches of rain...



build it 40 cubits x 40 cubits...
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Aside from the isolated tornadoes in Florida, I think this is a fair assessment. Rain, flooding event here, though, for sure.


no doubt! all this stalling going on the entire southeast coast could basically be rid of drought, other than central/northern GA.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 252121Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN VA WILL BE
PROGRESSING INTO ERN NC SHORTLY. A NEW WW APPEARS NECESSARY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE
SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..HURLBUT/MEAD.. 06/25/2012
1170. tea3781
She continues to build convention
Quoting yoboi:


yeah but if it was not for the military/gov i would not be on the internet, keyword- voluntarily. what i am understanding ya think we should just not have any laws or rules too follow just everybody do there own thing???


Do you own thing as long as you don't initiate force against someone. Voluntary contracts are fine.

Voluntaryism, or voluntarism, is the philosophy which holds that all forms of human association should be voluntary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntaryism
Quoting Walshy:
41.19 inches of rain...

You would think that is a world record but the highest total for rain in a 96 hour period is 191.7 inches. Plus this map shows 120 hours correct? That is still an insane amount of rainfall.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Careful over there. It doesn't show signs up letting up anytime soon either. WU radar estimations show over 15" have fallen south of Tall on the coast. 7.54" here since last night.


I have mentioned this many times over the past few days in terms of the large numbers of trees/branches all over the Big Bend and Panhandle area. They are really heavy and soaked about now and any wind gusts could bring them down real easily.

Folks need to drive really carefully out there and make sure to park your cars or boats away from big limbs or trees in the overnight hours just in case the winds pick up.
Can I say it?

DAMN....wide spread 4 inch per hour rainfall rates near Tallahassee.

CoC may be coming ashore under the massive ball of convection that blew up.


In ohter news, Hammond, LA did destroy the old record high exactly as forecast...

102f vs 96f...


3:55 PM 102.2 °F 108.4 °F 68.0 °F 33% 29.68 in - North 8.1 mph - N/A Clear
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I have mentioned this many times over the past few days in terms of the large numbers of trees/branches all over the Big Bend and Panhandle area. They are really heavy and soaked about now and any wind gusts could bring them down real easily.

Folks need to drive really carefully out there and make sure to park your cars or boats away from big limbs or trees in the overnight hours just in case the winds pick up.


Yeppers, and it's happening... Lost power twice down at Southwood complex at work today (although, not branch-related), and came home to blinking clocks. I have a feeling a few more flickers will happen tonight, particularly if the wind picks up any.
1177. yoboi
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Do you own thing as long as you don't initiate force against someone. Voluntary contracts are fine.

Voluntaryism, or voluntarism, is the philosophy which holds that all forms of human association should be voluntary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntaryism


so if someone voluntary beat ya up, would ya call the goverment police? or private police?
Yeah we're up to radar estimated 4.5 inch per hour rainfall rates now.

If this thing continues stalling or moving so slowly, we may see locally catastrophic flooding.
Quoting yoboi:


so if someone voluntary beat ya up, would ya call the goverment police? or private police?


They initiated force against you, so you can use force to defend yourself. You would have private protection agencies and perhaps dispute resolution organizations. If you truly are curious about this, I recommend you read Rothbard's For a New Liberty and Society Without a State.
1180. dewfree
Give me liberty or death !

battle cry of America:






1181. dewfree
eewa- eewrah Give us liberty or give us death !
remember the battle cry.

12 amendments and no more . never needed any more .


simper fi
The new GFS is coming out and it has Debby moving SW for a while...WOW
Those intense thunderstorms firing over Florida are being generated by afternoon heating, hence why the Gulf of Mexico is completely bare. It appears as if Debby may truly flourish when she gets into the southwestern Atlantic, until then, she'll probably just maintain her intensity or weaken. Quite the headache this storm has been.
Here in Clay County, residents on Black Creek have been advised to be ready to evacuate. Pics on TV impressive.. Btw. clay county is WNWN of St.Augustine across the St. johns River
The GFS IS THE KING OF THE MODELS,,,,MORE THAN THAT THE FATHER OF THE MODELS,NOAA NHC HAS MADE IN 24 HOURS A GYRE OF 180 DEGREES AND THE GFS NEVER CHANGE,THE GFS WILL BE THE FIRST OPTION THE REST OF THE SEASON IN TERMS OF MODELS
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


They initiated force against you, so you can use force to defend yourself. You would have private protection agencies and perhaps dispute resolution organizations. If you truly are curious about this, I recommend you read Rothbard's For a New Liberty and Society Without a State.


Also the supreme court has ruled on multiple occasions that the police are not obligated to help and defend you. They are obligated to keep peace and defend the power of the state.
goods recon up
1188. dewfree
decide it for yourself .dont wait on the GFS or any other model .make that decision and see how far you get without them all.satellite is a must though

1189. dewfree
they did a much better job when all they had was satellite


fading with the setting sun
Horrible, horrible, horrible story...

.REFERENCE TORNADO...VENUS TORNADO

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-120 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 1

START DATE: JUN 24 2012
START TIME: 1223 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 2 SSW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
START LAT/LON: 27.0400 / -81.3600

END DATE: JUN 24 2012
END TIME: 1229 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 2 NNW VENUS / HIGHLANDS / FL
END_LAT/LON: 27.0900 / -82.3600

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE 32-YEAR-OLD VENUS MOTHER WHO DIED FROM
INJURIES AFTER A TORNADO FLUNG HER 200 FEET AWAY FROM HER
HOME WAS FOUND CRADLING HER 3-YEAR-OLD DAUGHTER IN HER ARMS.

SEE COMPLETE HERNANDO TODAY ARTICLE AT HTTP://BIT.LY/KXFQQV