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Debby lingers in the Gulf, bringing heavy rain, flooding to Florida

By: Angela Fritz 9:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.


Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.


Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.

Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.

Angela
One of Debbie's tornados
One of Debbie's tornados
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria
Flooding On Anna Maria
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
TS Debby Flooding
TS Debby Flooding
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
TS Debby Flooding
TS Debby Flooding
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Time: 02:43:30Z
Coordinates: 28.7833N 84.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 846.2 mb (~ 24.99 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,397 meters (~ 4,583 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.7 mb (~ 29.31 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 59° at 3 knots (From the ENE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.9°C (~ 66.0°F)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 0 knots* (~ 0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data


If that's the case then the storm has actually moved about 3 or 4 tenths south...
Quoting jsker:
Just finished cutting the grass here in Orlando and it stopped raining about 4PM. Not much happening here
You're cutting your grass in the dark?
1003. emguy
What's the scoop on recon? Did they abort this pass?
Prayers go out to the people in Wakulla county, such a shame hopefully everyone was able to get out safely.
It's 87.6 degrees on my patio right now.
All of that moisture doesn't look like it is going anywhere anytime soon...

Debby doesn't seem to care whatever is happening to the tallest convection.

The main rain band is actually expanding westwards on the radar presentation, which refreshes much faster and more often than the public satellite products.

Tallahassee Radar
Quoting RTSplayer:


If that's the case then the storm has actually moved about 3 or 4 tenths south...


about 24 miles SE from last fix
post 985 so..according to that discussion..NHC is saying..the cov will stay over gom..amd may increase again..slightly..the convection will stay over north fla and rotate..for another 3 days..then the cov of debby will move inland on day 4 and catch up with the convection that is already there and move eastward across fla by day 5..okay..hmmmm
Which way will it go next?
It jogged ESE.

1012. JLPR2
Very similar to what the GFS was depicting, a bit of the energy from Debby separating and forming a second vort to her NE.



I wonder if it'll gain enough distance to actually try to develop. It's 2012, this wacky season can do whatever it wants.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
It jogged ESE.



Looks like the pilot been drinking.
1014. emguy
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
It jogged ESE.



Looking at some of those wind barbs...it looks like they may have just missed missed the center on the drop and may be relocating it. Keep posting these images if you are up...I don't have access to them bout would love to see them
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
It jogged ESE.



Might be a good thing for the worst effected areas if it moves some that way.

Maybe it will pull that rain band back off shore and give them some break for the flooding to come down.

If it went SW that would suck, because it still has the whole length of the band there anyway.
Supposed to crest 13 ft above flooding stage. I don't think I've ever heard of anything like that in FL.... bad stuff going on up there:

================================================= =
From the National Weather Service:

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR SOPCHOPPY AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
WAKULLA COUNTY. THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 11 FEET IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...OR APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT PER HOUR...AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION AND PEOPLE ALONG THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE AND URGENT
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE AND URGENT
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION NOT COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS EVENTS. JUST BECAUSE YOU DID NOT RECEIVE
FLOODING IN PAST EVENTS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE IMMUNE IN THIS CASE. DO NOT DRIVE
CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND
DO NOT DROWN.

&&

FLC129-270159-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120628T0111Z/
/SOPF1.3.ER.120625T2259Z.120626T1130Z.120627T1911 Z.UU/
959 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR SOPCHOPPY
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR AND RECORD FLOODING AROUND 41 FEET IS
FORECAST.
* THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.

11:00PM ADVISORY
(click to enlarge)
Good night all..I will leave you to ponder the last NHC dicussion and hope you don't get a headache like I did..take care..stay safe and dry..need to sleep without any tornadoes alert going off for once..because tomorrow it starts all over again..hagn all..
Still trying to understand the basics after two seasons of lurking....Can somebody explain to me why the east side of the storm lacks convection?
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION NOT COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS EVENTS.



That's what happens when you get 3 to 5 per hour for an entire day.

That's flippin ridiculous for an area so close to the coast to have a river rise 1ft per hour from freshwater flooding...
Here's to show you how impressive that flood stage is:
Twitter
NWSTallahassee: Potentially deadly situation. Sopchoppy Riverexpected to crest at 41 feet in the next 12 hours. This is 10 feet above the record crest. [via Twitter]
Here's some crazy information I found from Twitter:

The Sopchoppy River in Wakulla County,FL is expected to crest at 41'. Thats 10' above the record flood stage!
Quoting BradentonBrew:
Still trying to understand the basics after two seasons of lurking....Can somebody explain to me why the east side of the storm lacks convection?

There is a large amount of upper/mid level windshear that has been caused by an upper level low around the west gulf of mexico... it has managed to train dry air into the system's core
Quoting hydrus:
One of the scariest sat pics I have ever seen..


That made me shiver, nothing like listening to the wind whistling outside and thinking that 30 mph is a light breeze compared to what this monster did.
1025. MahFL
Interesting extension of the IR to the West.

Twitter:
BREAKING UPDATE: Firefighters blocked from getting to house fire by flooding, #alligator -- NOW: http://bit.ly/Lx7jJo #Debby #flwx #Pasco
Quoting MahFL:
Interesting extension of the IR to the West.

You can see it on radar as well. Has been slowly creeping to the west for about an hour.
On a date this eve, new friend. I say I like following the weather...

She says she used to dabble a little in the weather herself..

Oh?

Yes. Releasing dropsondes into TC(s)...

OH!
0z gfs is starting yay
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
It jogged ESE.

Obviously, it's what is depicted clearly in the satellite imagery.

Quoting JLPR2:
Very similar to what the GFS was depicting, a bit of the energy from Debby separating and forming a second vort to her NE.



I wonder if it'll gain enough distance to actually try to develop. It's 2012, this wacky season can do whatever it wants.
This happened last night at approximately the same time, Dmin. It appeared as if the mid level circulation moved, but it didn't. It was an illusion.

The land cools after sunset. That's what we're seeing now.
1031. MahFL
"THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION AND MANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
FLOODED IN RECENT MEMORY WILL FLOOD TONIGHT."

Sadly some people will probably die tonight and have no idea why it happened.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Twitter:
BREAKING UPDATE: Firefighters blocked from getting to house fire by flooding, #alligator -- NOW: http://bit.ly/Lx7jJo #Debby #flwx #Pasco
That's terrible. I find it kind of strange that people can't access a fire because of water though.
Guys, here's a link to a live weather blog in the Tallahassee Metro Area:

http://www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/LIVE_BLOG_Tropi cal_Storm_Debby_160223725.html
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'll say.

Radar estimate claims isolated storm totals of 33.2 inches already....with widespread 15 or more inches.

The entire Wakula County has supposedly had 10 or more inches of rain, and there is a region of about 2 entire countie's area total that is at 15 or more inches, and these counties are larger than is typical in other eastern states. So we are talking about a HUGE area of 10 to 30 inches of rainfall since the 23rd...with what looks like another 12 to 18 inches possibly by morning directly under the main rain band.


Similar situation in the best estimate multisensor estimates from Southeast River Forecast Center.... over 20" near Crawfordville in just the last 12hrs. Even for the gulf coast, that is easily breaking the 100yr/1% storm (in terms of rainfall) for a 12hr duration.

We've had quite a number of these high-end hydro events lately, I'm starting to lose track...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/
Quoting MahFL:
"THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION AND MANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
FLOODED IN RECENT MEMORY WILL FLOOD TONIGHT."

Sadly some people will probably die tonight and have no idea why it happened.
Well yah cause you don't typically now why you die because your dead. Really is a horrible situation out there.
Quoting BradentonBrew:
Still trying to understand the basics after two seasons of lurking....Can somebody explain to me why the east side of the storm lacks convection?


The east side has the entire peninsula in the way, so the inflow air moves over land and doesn't do much.

The place where the heavy rain is happening is sort of a boundary that the moisture of the eastern feeder bands which are OVER WATER are being wrung out on land.

the mid levels and low levels aren't perfectly stacked, and the low level moisture is sort of ramming up under the mid levels at a different angle of approach, and wringing out the moisture. Though this isn't happening as badly as it was 3 to 6 hours ago, the rainfall rates have been cut roughly in half since mid evening.

the effected areas sort of had mid level moisture coming in from the east, and low level moisture coming in straight out of the south, but the bands out of the south have struggled a bit with dry air in the past 3 hours or so, this is why the rainfall rates have dropped off a bit, but they are still 1 to 2 inches per hour on land and a bit higher just off shore.
Very impressive.
Quoting charlottefl:
Here's to show you how impressive that flood stage is:
NWSTallahassee:%uFFFDPotentially deadly situation. Sopchoppy%uFFFDRiverexpected to crest at 41 feet in the next 12 hours. This is 10 feet above the record crest.%uFFFD


Looks like the period of record for that gauge might be rather short, however. Still substantial and with rainfall amounts easily exceeding the 100yr/1% event, the flooding potential should not be taken lightly.

Update: According to the USGS info on that gauge, it appears that the gauge may have been in continuous operation since 1964. There have been other crests that the NWS in Tallahassee appears to have left off of their AHPS page for that location, which made it seem like the period of record was shorter. USGS data also seems to indicate a crest of 34.3ft in 2000, which would be higher than the ~31ft crest currently being assumed as record.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/fl/nwis/uv/?site_no=023 27100
@1038 is that remark really necessary?
Quoting FloodingDownInTexas:

There is a large amount of upper/mid level windshear that has been caused by an upper level low around the west gulf of mexico... it has managed to train dry air into the system's core


Yeah, but that was like 30 hours ago, and has little to do with the dryness on the east side right now...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That's terrible. I find it kind of strange that people can't access a fire because of water though.

The alligator part is funny though...
1045. nigel20
Good evening everyone!
Quoting Ameister12:
Here's some crazy information I found from Twitter:

The Sopchoppy River in Wakulla County,FL is expected to crest at 41'. Thats 10' above the record flood stage!

Wow!
is this one of those storms that when it moves over land during the day time heating it fills in the circulation and becomes better organized vertically? it might actually help the organization for when it moves back over water. I know the LLC is void of thunderstorms right now and you shouldnt go by the radar, but when the radar matches up with the satellite presentation which in this case might happen when it moves over land wont that help it when and if it makes it back into the atlantic?
1047. JLPR2
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


This happened last night at approximately the same time, Dmin. It appeared as if the mid level circulation moved, but it didn't. It was an illusion.

The land cools after sunset. That's what we're seeing now.


Eh? That's a 850mb vort what does the land cooling after sunset has to do with it?
Quoting MahFL:


Are you fing serious, this is a deadly situation, profanity is well deserved, ask you MOM....lol.

Sure it's an extremely dangerous situation but cussing isn't necessary.
1050. MahFL
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
is this one of those storms that when it moves over land during the day time heating it fills in the circulation and becomes better organized vertically? it might actually help the organization for when it moves back over water. I know the LLC is void of thunderstorms right now and you shouldnt go by the radar, but when the radar matches up with the satellite presentation which in this case might happen when it moves over land wont that help it when and if it makes it back into the atlantic?


The whole of northern Florida is so soaked it's going to act like a shallow lake.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, but that was like 30 hours ago, and has little to do with the dryness on the east side right now...

What is causing the lack of convection on the east besides the wind shear at this point then?
Is there any live internet TV coverage of Debby?
You can really see on the radar loop the rain moving west and are now starting to see it on sat. I have been saying this for a while but she is starting to try and wrap around on the west side.
1055. MahFL
It got bigger, somewhat totally unexpected considering the westerly shear.



Just checked my Facebook pages for friends and family in Wakulla area. I have many coworkers that live down that way too...

A lot have had to use boats to evacuate. 3' - 7' lakes where their yards used to be. It's a mess a complete mess!

Looks like the rain is slacking off a little bit... Debby, please move somewhere else, NOW!
GFS has going to Tampa Bay.
1058. MahFL
gn all, zzz time.
1059. GBguy88
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
@1038 is that remark really necessary?


Looks like she's about to fire more convection directly over the Wakulla county area...I think his comment was an understatement.
"It's not the wind ..It's the water.." - My Dad's

explanation of Hurricanes when I was a young kid
Pray for dry air to kill her otherwise it's going to keep going and going. 5 DAYS from now she's just off the east coast of FL, folks this is just beginning.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
It jogged ESE.

Quoting Ameister12:
Here's some crazy information I found from Twitter:

The Sopchoppy River in Wakulla County,FL is expected to crest at 41'. Thats 10' above the record flood stage!


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.



Quoting MahFL:
It got bigger, somewhat totally unexpected considering the westerly shear.



A plume of moisture is arriving from the south, it would appear from the satellite imagery.
The situation going on in Wakulla County is likely turning catastrophic.
As Debby gets nudged Ewrd into increasing shear, trying to think of an example... Have seen a sheared system getting ready to cross the peninsula decouple, pick up and leave the LLC behind, cross the state very fast, really without it's passing noted at the surface, then it dig down on the other side when it hits the Atlantic.
1065. 21Jake
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You can really see on the radar loop the rain moving west and are now starting to see it on sat. I have been saying this for a while but she is starting to try and wrap around on the west side.


I am noticing this as well. This could definitely help in strengthen if the COC is wrapped in rain...
1066. GBguy88
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.



The town of Sopchoppy (wonder where it got its name) is already going underwater courtesy of the river. It's not a huge population, but it is populated.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.

how would they know the crest when its going to continue raining for many more hours..i mean how far can it really rise before it just meets the gulf..does that area have hills and valleys (for florida standards)?
Quoting FloodingDownInTexas:

There is a large amount of upper/mid level windshear that has been caused by an upper level low around the west gulf of mexico... it has managed to train dry air into the system's core



Dry air? Not exactly, there is a ton of moisture in the eastern gulf, see for yourself: i

In fact, the EXACT same amount of moisture in the air as yesterday when 8 to 15 inches fell here on the west coast of Florida!

Moisture is and remains extremely high in the eastern gulf, so, you can't blame it on dry air. For whatever reason Debby is failing to produce convection in our area, which is a good thing for those whose houses are underwater or who have houses that nearly are under water from too much rain.


There is even some solid upper divergence overhead right now.
Check out the squall line moving through N. Carolina where the trough is colliding with the Debby outflow.


radar
Another pass comming up.

1071. Mucinex
Red Cross opens shelter at Florida High in Leon County
6:25 PM, Jun 25, 2012



The Capital Area Chapter of the American Red Cross opened a shelter at 6 p.m. today at the Florida State University High School (Florida High), 3000 School House Road off of Capital Circle Southeast, according to a news release from Leon County.


The Florida High shelter has been designated as a pet-friendly shelter for this event only, according to the release. Pet owners should bring veterinarian records as well as food and medicine or other essential items needed to care for their pets.


Those evacuating to the shelter should bring prescription medications, copies of important documents, blankets, baby items and other vital supplies.


The shelter may become crowded, therefore, the Red Cross asks that you do not bring any unnecessary items. This shelter will remain open as needed.


Official updates can be found on the Leon County Emergency Information Portal
(EIP) at www.LeonCountyFL.gov/ei/ .


Leon County Emergency Management is advising that residents to monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect life
and property. Drivers should use caution and adhere to any official signage.


The National Weather Service also warns that residents should not drive cars through flooded areas and that if they see flood waters to turn around and find another route.


Residents are also encouraged not to attempt to walk through floodwaters. Any and all flood water should be considered to be contaminated. Do not allow children to play in, wade through or swim in flood water.


Residents requiring more information or assistance should call Leon County Emergency Management at (850) 488-5921.
Well here's your problem..
Hoping this thing falls apart before DMAX....
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?
1075. GBguy88
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
how would they know the crest when its going to continue raining for many more hours..i mean how far can it really rise before it just meets the gulf..does that area have hills and valleys (for florida standards)?


Just a few hours ago, the forecast called for a crest at 36'. They've added that much onto it in just a short span of time.
Quoting rxse7en:
I'll assume that those round things in the water are all memorials?! GOD, I hate bridges.


Those are placed there to protect that bridge from Ship strikes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?



vary likey

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?

Easily...
1079. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?

That's a possibility.
cyberteddy can you be more specific?
The amount of rain falling every hour is mind boggling.
So people that know nothing about these storms need to STAY OUT OF THEM! I just had to run off some kids standing on a seawall on Ben T Davis Beach (Tampa side of the Courtney Campbell Causeway) like it was some game... They nearly got pulled in by a huge wave that crashed probably 3 feet above them and they thought it was cool. Not to mention one of them had a little brother with them, probably 9 or so, that was running around in the debris with no shoes on by himself! It really blows my mind that people in Tampa and all over the place have no respect for these storms. Also it was actually pretty nasty out there for a 45mph tropical storm. Debby may be weaker now, but it still is packing a big punch.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Dry air? Not exactly, there is a ton of moisture in the eastern gulf, see for yourself: i

In fact, the EXACT same amount of moisture in the air as yesterday when 8 to 15 inches fell here on the west coast of Florida!

Moisture is and remains extremely high in the eastern gulf, so, you can't blame it on dry air. For whatever reason Debby is failing to produce convection in our area, which is a good thing for those whose houses are underwater or who have houses that nearly are under water from too much rain.


There is even some solid upper divergence overhead right now.

My apologies, i've been a lurker for quite some time, i've got a long way to go. thanks for the info
Some of the rain bands on the NE side are swinging around at an angle suggesting it's feeling a tug to the north east.

Shortwave IR seems to agree.
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?

Yes. You were right when you said Debby was going to be Florida's Allison.
1089. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well here's your problem..


That's one healthy anticyclone that is perfectly located to cause Debby westerly shear. This system is rather unlucky, then again, who wants it to strengthen, it's bad enough as it is.
angela as long as you're not calling it the armpit

Quoting plutorising:
angela as long as you're not calling it the armpit



Someone actually suggested I call it that, instead! :)
There is your center.

28.833N 84.883W
992.2 mb

From 274° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)

0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*)
Quoting angelafritz:


Someone actually suggested I call it that, instead! :)




LOL

Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)


I'm in FL not offended here, and wouldn't be if I live there...
1095. pcola57
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)


Quoting plutorising:
angela as long as you're not calling it the armpit



What plutorising said!! :)
Quoting angelafritz:


Someone actually suggested I call it that, instead! :)



I guess an armpit is better than a crook, lol. Armpit it is.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it safe to say Debby will go down as a billion dollar disaster?

Yep. Hey. can you mail(PM) me the classes and such, needed for to major in Tropical Weather Meterology?
I asked, but don't know if you quoted it or not? I've been on and off the blog the last 30 minutes...
Link

Wiki on Wakulla County Fl
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)


I call it "the armpit of Florida..." it generally stays safe from the worst of canes, like your under arm stays out of the rain, and it's always hot and muggy in the summer, like your under arm. :-)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Yep. Hey. can you mail(PM) me the classes and such, needed for to major in Tropical Weather Meterology?
I asked, but don't know if you quoted it or not? I've been on and off the blog the last 30 minutes...

I asked James, he has yet to respond.
We usually call that area the big bend....
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)
Quoting angelafritz:


Someone actually suggested I call it that, instead! :)


LOL, I needed a smile! Thanks!
1103. emguy
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)


Hehe...You're totally cool in my book Angie :) For the record, it does have a name. It is known as the Florida Big Bend ;)
1104. Patrap
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)


Reminds me of the Fawlty Towers episode where Basil waited on the Germans while concussed...

.."Dont mention the War, I did, but I think I got away with it"...
1105. 7544
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There is your center.

28.833N 84.883W
992.2 mb

From 274° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)

0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*)


she did move se lol new gfs wants to more south this run too exiting off orlando
Lol, here Angela.

Link
1107. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There is your center.

28.833N 84.883W
992.2 mb

From 274° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)

0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*)


How is this thing sustaining such a low pressure while being so disorganized? Just weird...
Quoting Beachfoxx:
We usually call that area the big bend....


Yep, that was the kind of nomenclature I was looking for.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There is your center.

28.833N 84.883W
992.2 mb

From 274° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)

0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*)


Well that's just weird. That should be quite a bit SSE of the previous fix. I guess it's just wobbling around that much and become that ragged in the center.

Maybe the orientation of rain bands on radar means little then.
1110. RickWPB
Quoting angelafritz: Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)

I've usually heard it referred to as "the big bend". 
1112. cjnew
Quoting Beachfoxx:
We usually call that area the big bend....


Yes we do. ;)
Though I kind of like the elbow region.
1113. Patrap
This might help clarify it for you. : )
Big Bend on Wiki
Link
Quoting angelafritz:


Yep, that was the kind of nomenclature I was looking for.
Thanks guys, problem solved. The next time I feel inspired to go naming regions of states, Im going to turn to you, instead!
{{{{CJ}}}}}
Quoting cjnew:


Yes we do. ;)
Though I kind of like the elbow region.
Quoting angelafritz:
Are people really bent out of shape (pun intended!) that I named the Apalachee Bay region the "elbow" of Florida? I have to say, I really wanted there to be a name for that region, similar to the "panhandle" or the "peninsula," but I couldn't come up with anything. To be clear, I meant the INSIDE of the elbow. The crook, if you will. :)



....this is how I usually see a reference to that area given:

The Big Bend of Florida, U.S.A., is an informal region of the state with no official surveyed boundary. It includes part of the counties of the Florida Panhandle. Geologists prefer to characterize Florida%u2019s Big Bend as the drowned karst section of the coast that occurs between the mouth of the Apalachicola River and Southwest Florida%u2019s Central Barrier Coast.[1][2][3] Perhaps the most culturally relevant definition of the Big Bend region is the section of west peninsular Florida%u2019s coast without barrier islands%u2014the section from Anclote Key (or the Anclote River), near Tarpon Springs to Ochlockonee Bay, near Alligator Point. The straight line distance between these two geographic features is about 150 miles apart. Generally following the arc of the coast offshore, it is closer to 200 miles in distance.

An alternative definition more prevalent in Florida's panhandle includes the area around Apalachee Bay, an arm of the Gulf of Mexico. It runs from Franklin County on the west end through Jefferson, Taylor and Dixie on the southeast end.[4] Common usage may also include Franklin, Gadsden, Leon, Liberty and Madison counties in the region.[5][6] The principal city in the region is Tallahassee.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bend_(Florida)

...............
oops I see da Fox was much quicker than I
I can't recall ever seeing an exposed cyclone able to maintain such a low pressure. And to remind you the center has NEVER been covered.
Her convection is being very considerate... it's saying "Take my hand!" ...again.
Just ask a local! :)
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks guys, problem solved. The next time I feel inspired to go naming regions of states, Im going to turn to you, instead!
1-km res IR images of Debby's large convective burst over the Florida panhandle today.
Lake City and areas east are gonna be in the same situation here soon. Intense bands are coming in with a huge influx of moisture from the south. Forming one right after another...
we get it its the big bend, can someone answer my past questions?
GRlevel3 is picking up on 34" of rain in the Florida big bend region.
I even included the Wiki page in the modification, so everyone will know what the Big Bend is from now on.

armpit.  it's being shaved now.
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks guys, problem solved. The next time I feel inspired to go naming regions of states, Im going to turn to you, instead!



LOL
Very sad...

.Reference tornado... Venus tornado

Rating: EF-2
estimated peak wind: 115-120 mph
path length /statute/: 3.6 miles
path width /maximum/: 150 yards
fatalities: 1
injuries: 1

Start date: Jun 24 2012
start time: 1223 PM EDT
start location: 2 SSW Venus / Highlands / FL
start lat/lon: 27.0400 / -81.3600

End date: Jun 24 2012
end time: 1229 PM EDT
end location: 2 NNW Venus / Highlands / FL
end_lat/lon: 27.0900 / -82.3600

Survey summary: the 32-year-old Venus mother who died from
injuries after a tornado flung her 200 feet away from her
home was found cradling her 3-year-old daughter in her arms.

See complete Hernando today article at http://bit.Ly/kxfqqv
Quoting JLPR2:


How is this thing sustaining such a low pressure while being so disorganized? Just weird...
\

Amazing, I don't recall ever seeing it. Been tracking since 04.
Link





Link

Sopchoppy River Origins and History
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
we get it its the big bend, can someone answer my past questions?

Stop being so impatient. What was your question(s)?
1133. Patrap
Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

1134. emguy
Quoting angelafritz:


Yep, that was the kind of nomenclature I was looking for.


Hey Angela, You really should not feel bad. I lived in Tallahasse for about 9 years...while there...some locals used to say they lived in the "Armpit of Florida". It was a joke of affection toward the geography of the area but you did better in saying elbows over armpits. :)

PS: If you've never been there folks. It's beautiful natural Florida in a relatively well preserved. A very nice place.
1135. help4u
can someone link the latest gfs run

Anyone wanna share the details of the new GFS?
1137. 21Jake
HH have found another center fix. Pressure down to 992 and it has moved almost due South a bit.

Moving out to sea in 114 hours.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Very sad...

.Reference tornado... Venus tornado

Rating: EF-2
estimated peak wind: 115-120 mph
path length /statute/: 3.6 miles
path width /maximum/: 150 yards
fatalities: 1
injuries: 1

Start date: Jun 24 2012
start time: 1223 PM EDT
start location: 2 SSW Venus / Highlands / FL
start lat/lon: 27.0400 / -81.3600

End date: Jun 24 2012
end time: 1229 PM EDT
end location: 2 NNW Venus / Highlands / FL
end_lat/lon: 27.0900 / -82.3600

Survey summary: the 32-year-old Venus mother who died from
injuries after a tornado flung her 200 feet away from her
home was found cradling her 3-year-old daughter in her arms.

See complete Hernando today article at http://bit.Ly/kxfqqv


Just so, so tragic. Terrible news.
Jogged more south on last pass.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
\

Amazing, I don't recall ever seeing it. Been tracking since 04.


Probably because surrounding pressures aren't all that high. This is especially true in the persistent weakness over Florida along 80W, where Debby is expected to follow the path of least resistance. Things don't just happen for no reason. This is physics.
1142. nigel20
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I can't recall ever seeing an exposed cyclone able to maintain such a low pressure. And to remind you the center has NEVER been covered.

Debby may be worst, but Jamaica also had quite a bit of rain from fairly disorganized TS Nicole...it just goes to show that some tropical storms can be as dangerous as hurricanes.
Reference tornado... Pass-a-grille tornado

Rating: EF-1
estimated peak wind: 80-85 mph
path length /statute/: 3.3 miles
path width /maximum/: 50 yards
fatalities: 0
injuries: 0

Start date: Jun 24 2012
start time: 821 PM EDT
start location: pass-a-grille / Pinellas / FL
start lat/lon: 27.7000 / -82.7400

End date: Jun 24 2012
end time: 825 PM EDT
end location: 3 NE pass-a-grille / Pinellas / FL
end_lat/lon: 27.7400 / -82.7200

Survey summary: waterspout moved onshore as a tornado and
destroyed the top floor of a tourist rental building. No one
was in the top units and no injuries werer reported in the
bottom units. The tornado caused moderate damage to the
pass-a-grille Marina.
1145. JLPR2
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
\

Amazing, I don't recall ever seeing it. Been tracking since 04.


Makes me wonder if Debby is in the wrong basin, maybe she belonged in the Western Pacific instead of the Atl, seeing as storms over there usually have lower pressures than our tropical systems.
1146. cjnew
Hiya foxx!
Couldn't resist.
Hope you're doing well!
Though not always up, I believe this web cam is in the affected area.
http://204.215.43.199/webcam3.asp
Quoting Patrap:



New flare up.
Debby's begining to strengthen,banding features in 3 quadrents,tomorrows gonna be interesting with a 70mph TS making landfall north of new port richey imo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stop being so impatient. What was your question(s)?


1046 and 1067....sorry ,ive been sitting here waiting for someone to explain. thanks for answering!
1151. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Yep. Hey. can you mail(PM) me the classes and such, needed for to major in Tropical Weather Meterology?
I asked, but don't know if you quoted it or not? I've been on and off the blog the last 30 minutes...


Most undergraduate curriculum includes math through Ordinary Differential Equations, although you will most likely need Partial Differential Equations. 2 semesters of Atmospheric Dynamics, Physics, and Synoptics, and some other general meteorology classes.

Tropical meteorology is usually studied at the graduate level because of its complexity. There is typically classes based just on it that you can take.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GRlevel3 is picking up on 34" of rain in the Florida big bend region.


If we got 34 inches of rain in 3 days in Livingston and Tangipahoa Parishes, the water would be clean over 190, I-12 and highway 22 at all of the rivers, even though the roads have been built up quite a bit since the 1983 floods.

It would easily break the 1983 flood levels, and those are under-reported because most of the gauges were several feet under water. Just saying.
1153. Patrap
Pray tell Debby dosen't wrap that convective skirt around and decide to Mature into something Larger.


Problems are bad and worsening in that area tonight.

26" of rain confirmed near ST. Marks FL! WOW.

Also latest GFS is strengthening Debby over the next 48 hours and sends here over C FL as a strong TS. With the potential of 10" plus inches of rain over a very soaked C FL. My rain guage is at 4.76 so far.

florida better be prepared for more heavy rains and much higher winds this next time around...have to deal with HURRICANE DEBBY...could dump additional 20 inches of more rain if it is still a slow mover or it stalls...
post 1143, Dang it! I thought that plume was dying out, now bright pink showing to the west of Tallahassee again. Please don't tell me that's going to rebuild.
From Largo, FL

Winds
S
33mph
gusting to 53 mph Link
1158. 7544
gfs

Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably because surrounding pressures aren't all that high. This is especially true in the persistent weakness over Florida along 80W, where Debby is expected to follow the path of least resistance. Things don't just happen for no reason. This is physics.


I understand the physics, just don't recall ever seeing it before.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Jogged more south on last pass.




Explains why the radar has the rain bands moving a few clicks southwards, maybe the Tallahassee area gets lucky and it pulls the band completely offshore...

I don't know if such a hard turn to the S favors the eastward track over the long term though...

Moving S a bit more than forecast gives a ridge time to build back over it...

Radar
Interesting. Recon has found some 60 kt flight level winds right along the coast near Apalachicola.
wow, getting stronger debby?

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 41° at 62 knots (From the NE at ~ 71.3 mph)
Actually, it also appears they are ascending and leaving the storm. So forget that last post.....unless I am mistaken.
Quoting 7544:
gfs

Link
Maybe a weak system approaching the Lesser Antilles?
1169. 7544
do u think we can see another shift to the south from the next speghitti run
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
post 1143, Dang it! I thought that plume was dying out, now bright pink showing to the west of Tallahassee again. Please don't tell me that's going to rebuild.


That's 45 minutes old.

the band clearly IS intensifying in terms of area and length around the circulation, but because of the freakish jogs of the CoC, the band has moved maybe 10 or 20 miles south off shore.

On land rainfall rates are dropping, but still remain between 0.5 and 1.5 inch per hour right now...
wow that high could block debby from a northeast movement and keep florida in the soup for weeks..debby has enough warm water moving south to really get her act together maybe becoming a cat 2 hurricane...i would not rule out even RI ...this is a very grave condition setting up for florida...its also exciting to watch debby grow by the hour...
1172. Grothar
Looks like another flareup of convection is beginning in the elbow.


Quoting AllStar17:
Interesting. Recon has found some 60 kt flight level winds right along the coast near Apalachicola.


Does that translate down to surface reasonable winds? Or are winds at the surface minimal?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Notice the blow up of convection down by the Yucatan lifting a little more Northward tonight.
Good!
I'll PM you!
Glad to see you!
Quoting cjnew:
Hiya foxx!
Couldn't resist.
Hope you're doing well!
FWIW both the NAM and GFDL support the westward solution....although i will prolly get punched for even suggesting such an absurdity!!LOL
Even though she's being heavily sheared... again... Debby looks much better than at the same time last night.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Does that translate down to surface reasonable winds? Or are winds at the surface minimal?


Those winds could mix down to the surface if a thunderstorm or strong squall forces them to.
1179. rxse7en
Quoting Patrap:


Reminds me of the Fawlty Towers episode where Basil waited on the Germans while concussed...

.."Dont mention the War, I did, but I think I got away with it"...
Great episode.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Does that translate down to surface reasonable winds? Or are winds at the surface minimal?


knots is 1.15 miles per hour.

Normally the wind speed from flight level to surface is reduced by about 15 percent.

So it's a decent estimate that the flight level winds in knots is about the same as the surface winds in miles per hour...

Sooo...if that was a legit measurement, it implies 60mph surface observation height winds.
Hello can someone please send me a link for good model runs that work on the iPad/iOS?
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
FWIW both the NAM and GFDL support the westward solution....although i will prolly get punched for even suggesting such an absurdity!!LOL


I believe that's contingent on a weaker system moving westward with the low-level flow. Debby has convection, so that solution seems unlikely.
1184. Patrap
HAL:Ignition

..Full Thrust

2 things models don't do well with.

1. Small Cyclones

2. Stalled Cyclones


The end result of a stalled cyclone is an error cone like this.

Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
Hello can someone please send me a link for good model runs that work on the iPad/iOS?


I don't know about either of those, but this site works well on my iPhone.
Quoting RTSplayer:


knots is 1.15 miles per hour.

Normally the wind speed from flight level to surface is reduced by about 15 percent.

So it's a decent estimate that the flight level winds in knots is about the same as the surface winds in miles per hour...

Sooo...if that was a legit measurement, it implies 60mph surface observation height winds.


Thanks.
yes i think all the way down to miami has to worry about torrential rains as debby strengthens into a hurricane and continues to move south....this could be astronomical rain totals after debby is done with florida maybe close to 75 to 100 inches when its all over...debby girl you are to much.......you are looking better every pass...hurricane debby by the 11am advisory....90 mph winds...pressure is going to drop through out the evening...wow looked at the pressure on the west side od debby and they are all running fairly low...29.62 to the highest 29.70
1189. nigel20
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2 things models don't do well with.

1. Small Cyclones

2. Stalled Cyclones


The end result of a stalled cyclone is an error cone like this.


Hopefully Debby will move away from the Florida coast as soon as possible.
Quoting Patrap:
HAL:Ignition

..Full Thrust



Looks like convection is blowing up in the south quadrant aswell.
They even have about 50 miles or so to back the truck up, lol.
1192. 7544
could we the models shift south again after they get this data inn
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't know about either of those, but this site works well on my iPhone.


Thank you I have this one I have to wait until it is completely loaded before viewing, correct?

Questions awaiting answers...

1067. uncwhurricane85 10:47 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.

how would they know the crest when its going to continue raining for many more hours..i mean how far can it really rise before it just meets the gulf..does that area have hills and valleys (for florida standards)?
Action: Quote | Ignore User




1046. uncwhurricane85 10:37 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
is this one of those storms that when it moves over land during the day time heating it fills in the circulation and becomes better organized vertically? it might actually help the organization for when it moves back over water. I know the LLC is void of thunderstorms right now and you shouldnt go by the radar, but when the radar matches up with the satellite presentation which in this case might happen when it moves over land wont that help it when and if it makes it back into the atlantic?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
12:00 PM JST June 26 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) is located at 12.9N 132.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===========================

24 HRS: 14.7N 129.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
So sad that Debby is not moving fast enough so Florida can dried a little if she remains in the same area for two days more her name will probably be down and out of the list.I think she is nearing a 1 billion dollar disaster if she isn`t one now.
1197. Patrap
That southwesterly Shear that Kicked the old Tower away is really gone and the Storm is firing that Cylinder big time again.

Dmax aint gonna look like yesterdays.
1198. rxse7en
Quoting sunlinepr:
That's a GREAT loop. Thank you!
1199. scott39
Dont count out the GFDL run.
Quoting 7544:
could we the models shift south again after they get this data inn


If they did I doubt it would mean much at the moment, it could move back north tomorrow.
Quoting Patrap:
That southwesterly Shear that Kicked the old Tower away is really gone and the Storm is firing that Cylinder big time again.

Dmax aint gonna look like yesterdays.


*sigh*

I hope she can move a little further south and take the rain with her, for Wakulla's sake.
1202. rxse7en
Sad :( Puppies die in Jax area flooding.
Link
Sorry if this is a repost, but wow, it sounds like an awful situation unfolding in areas of the FL panhandle.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR... NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA... WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 AM EDT TUESDAY

* AT 1101 PM EDT... EXTREME FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER INCLUDING THE TOWN OF SOPCHOPPY. WATER HAS ALREADY ENTERED HOMES IN SOPCHOPPY AND THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST FAR ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS RECORD CREST. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS RURAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION AND MANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT FLOODED IN RECENT MEMORY WILL FLOOD TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT MARKS AND CRAWFORDVILLE
1205. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
That southwesterly Shear that Kicked the old Tower away is really gone and the Storm is firing that Cylinder big time again.

Dmax aint gonna look like yesterdays.



Showers returning to the SE peninsula that have been void all day.

Lake city region is getting hit hardest right now.

Two merging feeder bands pushing the rainfall rates back up fast.

Radar

Should point out that these are only TWO DAY totals, and do not include whatever happened on the 23rd.

I'd say only trust stuff close to the radar station,as the edges may be inaccurate.
1208. Patrap
New Frame, Blossom increased like 25% too.

ULAC South of Debby, ULL still in the Western Gulf, and Debby of course.

1210. scott39
The NAM,BAMM and BAMM S go W.
Quoting FloodingDownInTexas:

My apologies, i've been a lurker for quite some time, i've got a long way to go. thanks for the info



It's fine :) I didn't mean it in a cut you down way, I just wanted to inform!
Quoting ajcamsmom2:

Questions awaiting answers...

1067. uncwhurricane85 10:47 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.

how would they know the crest when its going to continue raining for many more hours..i mean how far can it really rise before it just meets the gulf..does that area have hills and valleys (for florida standards)?
Action: Quote | Ignore User




1046. uncwhurricane85 10:37 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
is this one of those storms that when it moves over land during the day time heating it fills in the circulation and becomes better organized vertically? it might actually help the organization for when it moves back over water. I know the LLC is void of thunderstorms right now and you shouldnt go by the radar, but when the radar matches up with the satellite presentation which in this case might happen when it moves over land wont that help it when and if it makes it back into the atlantic?
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Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 255


thanks!!!
1213. Grothar
GFS 48 hours.

1214. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Showers returning to the SE peninsula that have been void all day.



We just had two really heavy downpours in the last 1/2 hour.
1215. Patrap
This is really B-a-d Mojo afoot .


Night-time, rising waters and rivers.

A sustaining and maybe deepening Tropical Cyclone in Warm SST's..

Those who are affected and concerned our prayers, and may the Sun rise on you and the clouds part.


Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Elevation
Range 124 NMI



To embed this image, use the Quote feature and take the HTML and use the image button

G'night.


Just did another blog on Debby if anyone is interested.
Quoting ajcamsmom2:

Questions awaiting answers...

1067. uncwhurricane85 10:47 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Already in the record books for this one. However, this river runs through an unpopulated area.

Nevertheless, it's an indication of what the other rivers are doing in this area.

how would they know the crest when its going to continue raining for many more hours..i mean how far can it really rise before it just meets the gulf..does that area have hills and valleys (for florida standards)?
Action: Quote | Ignore User




1046. uncwhurricane85 10:37 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 0
is this one of those storms that when it moves over land during the day time heating it fills in the circulation and becomes better organized vertically? it might actually help the organization for when it moves back over water. I know the LLC is void of thunderstorms right now and you shouldnt go by the radar, but when the radar matches up with the satellite presentation which in this case might happen when it moves over land wont that help it when and if it makes it back into the atlantic?
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Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 255



The wave setup and storm surges at the coast will have piled salt water into the bays and the mouths of the rivers and streams by several feet above normal sea level.

This means that inland fresh water flooding has no place to go, because the water levels at the mouths of the rivers is already several feet above normal to begin with.

This will be particularly true anywhere the surface wind is blowing directly on shore, such as the eastern side of the Bend...
after a 5 or 6 hrs reprieve,winds steadly rising here on siesta,30mph sustaines,gusting to around 40
Pat, you can't drop bad news on us like that and then go to bed! ;-)

Good night! Thanks for the maps, as always!

Quoting Grothar:


We just had two really heavy downpours in the last 1/2 hour.


None here yet. It twas a nice lull though. My phone was going nuts yesterday with all the Tornado Warnings.
1221. Patrap
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Pat, you can't drop bad news on us like that and then go to bed! ;-)

Good night! Thanks for the maps, as always!




Been long couple of days. Maybe a few more as well to come.

Heat is really Bad west of her.


It took me down almost today so I'm outta here to da bed.

Nite and thanx FSUCOOPMAN

1222. Grothar
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


1046 and 1067....sorry ,ive been sitting here waiting for someone to explain. thanks for answering!


It's obvious you're not married. :) Don't worry, we all get ignored sometimes. Sometimes we don't know the answer or we skip by it. It's not personal.
Night everyone. Hope everyone in the flooded areas stay safe. I kind of have a feeling thought that Debbie will have a surprise for me in the morning.
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 48 hours.


What's the landfall pressure?
1225. nigel20
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Night everyone. Hope everyone in the flooded areas stay safe. I kind of have a feeling thought that Debbie will have a surprise for me in the morning.

Have a good night, HH!
1226. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


None here yet. It twas a nice lull though. My phone was going nuts yesterday with all the Tornado Warnings.


We should consider ourselves very lucky. We did get a lot of rain, but nothing like our Northern neighbors. I keep thinking of all those people without flood insurance.
time to put the tornado watch back up imo
I am most eager to see the Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature maps once this is over. The upwelling near the coast must be great.
1230. Grothar
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

What's the landfall pressure?


I really don't think they know yet. The WC said it would be about 995 mb, but with this one, who knows. I think the rain will be more of a problem than anything.

P.S. PP we are getting another big round of showers as I write. Anyone else here in North Broward on the coast?

1046. uncwhurricane85 10:37 PM CDT on June 25, 2012 +0
You are welcome, sometimes when the blog is busy like this, people just skip thru so fast that they miss good questions.

1217. RTSplayer 11:44 PM CDT on June 25, 2012
Thanks for giving such a clear answer.
Well, I am off to bed. My thoughts and prayers to all affected by Debby. I pray she moves away from Florida very soon. Night all.
1233. Grothar
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Pat, you can't drop bad news on us like that and then go to bed! ;-)

Good night! Thanks for the maps, as always!



All the older guys do that. I guess they can't help it.
1234. Grothar
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i figured someone in here would know the answers...nope not married but if my wife made me wait like that shed get the backhand...jk..but for real..what are the answers?


I'm sorry I didn't see your question.
Quoting Grothar:


All the older guys do that. I guess they can't help it.


That may be called experience, but only time will tell for sure!
As I understand it, Jim Cantore evacuated St. Marks.

There is confirmed rainfall over 20 inches from there westwards.
1238. Grothar
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just did another blog on Debby if anyone is interested.


Another good one, Kori.

Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i figured someone in here would know the answers...nope not married but if my wife made me wait like that shed get the backhand...jk..but for real..what are the answers?
not going to be married very long at that rate
Do we have anyone on here from the Panhandle right now? If so, provide details or pictures of what your dealing with!
1241. Grothar
The center looks like it is getting rounder and good shape to it than just a few hours ago. Could we be seeing moisture wrapping around it again tonight?

Quoting NOWORRIES:
Do we have anyone on here from the Panhandle right now? If so, provide details or pictures of what your dealing with!


I'm serious, TWC said Cantore evacuated.

I doubt anyone with a brain stayed behind.

They said the water was rising 1 foot per hour, which is believable easily with the rainfall rates that have happened the past 12 hours. About 4pm to 7pm was just insane, but it's still raining very hard.


Anyway, if the storm chasers and TWC evacuates, it must be pretty darn bad. I wouldn't expect many pictures because the power is probably out anyway.

Pictures will probably be on youtube or TWC special or something later on though.
Quoting NOWORRIES:
Do we have anyone on here from the Panhandle right now? If so, provide details or pictures of what your dealing with!


I'm Tallahassee, which is largely ok, but I know of at least three families in Wakulla that had to leave by boat.

One lost both cars, and their house.

The picture out the front door of her house, during daylight showed 4 - 5' of water in the yard.
Quoting Grothar:
The center looks like it is getting rounder and good shape to it than just a few hours ago.



It's crazy, another round of feeder bands developed on the east side and moved north and merged with the big band again.

Rain is still not as intense as it was 6 hours ago, but the rates have come back up again in some areas.


They are talking about the crest being 11ft above previous record, well people need to think about how high that is.

Standard ceiling heights are 8 feet, though modern homes often have 9 or 10 feet, but then add the 6 inches for the joists, and you still have 6 inches to 2.5 FEET of water in your attic or second floor...so you can't get away from it vertically in a normal home either.

Now that's assuming the previous record was like, up to your home's foundation...

Point is, this flood could wash an entire house clean off it's foundation, even if the house was well above the previous record crest...
Good night, all. I'm probably gonna pull a shift on the Florida Emergency Information Line (FEIL). Trying to get help to where it's needed most. I need the rest to deal with the stressful calls.

If you pray, keep these areas in your prayers.

Looks like south FL could be getting another round of nastiness too.

Geez!

As far as weak, sheared TS go, Debby takes the cake.
Quoting Grothar:
The center looks like it is getting rounder and good shape to it than just a few hours ago. Could we be seeing moisture wrapping around it again tonight?



Closed off that dry air slot in the South, that is why we are seeing the increased moisture here. There is a tongue of moisture heading N, visible in the C-Gulf however, I don't think it will be sufficient to close off the NW. So, So dry up there and being reinforced.

1248. nigel20
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's crazy, another round of feeder bands developed on the east side and moved north and merged with the big band again.

Rain is still not as intense as it was 6 hours ago, but the rates have come back up again in some areas.


They are talking about the crest being 11ft above previous record, well people need to think about how high that is.

Standard ceiling heights are 8 feet, though modern homes often have 9 or 10 feet, but then add the 6 inches for the joists, and you still have 6 inches to 2.5 FEET of water in your attic or second floor...so you can't get away from it vertically in a normal home either.

Now that's assuming the previous record was like, up to your home's foundation...

Point is, this flood could wash an entire house clean off it's foundation, even if the house was well above the previous record crest...

Were/are people being evacuated?
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Good night, all. I'm probably gonna pull a shift on the Florida Emergency Information Line (FEIL). Trying to get help to where it's needed most. I need the rest to deal with the stressful calls.

If you pray, keep these areas in your prayers.

Looks like south FL could be getting another round of nastiness too.

Geez!

As far as weak, sheared TS go, Debby takes the cake.


Have a great night and please stay safe!
1251. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Closed off that dry air slot in the South, that is why we are seeing the increased moisture here. There is a tongue of moisture heading N, visible in the C-Gulf however, I don't think it will be sufficient to close off the NW. So, So dry up there and being reinforced.




If you look at this animated link, you can see a moisture field trying to wrap around the center coming from the North to the west side of the circulation. It is increasing by the hour.


Link
Quoting nigel20:

Were/are people being evacuated?


I know some are being moved to a high school and other public shelters, which must be well above any possible flood.

I assume others are just moving to hotels or friends houses farther inland in another county or state.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm serious, TWC said Cantore evacuated.

I doubt anyone with a brain stayed behind.

They said the water was rising 1 foot per hour, which is believable easily with the rainfall rates that have happened the past 12 hours. About 4pm to 7pm was just insane, but it's still raining very hard.


Anyway, if the storm chasers and TWC evacuates, it must be pretty darn bad. I wouldn't expect many pictures because the power is probably out anyway.

Pictures will probably be on youtube or TWC special or something later on though.


Understood...I was thinking of those of you still with power and in a safe place...how much rain and wind are you seeing. Thanks again, I will likely cut out soon also..started my work day and storm watching before 5am today.
Also notice the trough has hold of Debby now.
1255. Grothar
It is much more evident on this map. You can see the green beginning to fill in on the NW of the circulation

1256. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also notice the trough has hold of Debby now.


Yes, it does.
Quoting NOWORRIES:


Understood...I was thinking of those of you still with power and in a safe place...how much rain and wind are you seeing. Thanks again, I will likely cut out soon also..started my work day and storm watching before 5am today.


I'm not there.

I live in Louisiana.

I'm just obsessed with tropical weather.
1258. Grothar
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's crazy, another round of feeder bands developed on the east side and moved north and merged with the big band again.

Rain is still not as intense as it was 6 hours ago, but the rates have come back up again in some areas.


They are talking about the crest being 11ft above previous record, well people need to think about how high that is.

Standard ceiling heights are 8 feet, though modern homes often have 9 or 10 feet, but then add the 6 inches for the joists, and you still have 6 inches to 2.5 FEET of water in your attic or second floor...so you can't get away from it vertically in a normal home either.

Now that's assuming the previous record was like, up to your home's foundation...

Point is, this flood could wash an entire house clean off it's foundation, even if the house was well above the previous record crest...


I don't think they have ever seen the rivers that high. Dr. Forbes said, if this stays over like this and doesn't move there could be 40 - 50 inches. Incredible amounts.
Quoting Grothar:



If you look at this animated link, you can see a moisture field trying to wrap around the center coming from the North to the west side of the circulation. It is increasing by the hour.


Link


The 27 to 28 Latitude is the entry point. That is some hefty dry air pumping directly in, we'll see.
1260. nigel20
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know some are being moved to a high school and other public shelters, which must be well above any possible flood.

I assume others are just moving to hotels or friends houses farther inland in another county or state.

That's good to know...thanks for the info,RTS.
1262. emguy
Quoting Grothar:



If you look at this animated link, you can see a moisture field trying to wrap around the center coming from the North to the west side of the circulation. It is increasing by the hour.


Link


Grothar...You are right...and it's a problem if it continues. I don't like the trend. I'm gonna talk some about this in a bit...I just wanna see another frame or two before commenting. In the mean time, I wanted to thank you. It was Sunday morning and I was heading out the door, but I saw your compliment. I wanted to say thank you. That was very nice. I hope I helped. E-mail me any time...sometimes things get busy and this blog is progressive, but I'll always see an e-mail if you want to chat.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Also notice the trough has hold of Debby now.


yeah, but not as much as it needs to be.

It has too shallow of an amplitude, and too long wave length.

I think the axis has already passed Debby, or else it's too close to call.

This is why some of the models still take Debby west again, in some cases even after the Florida land fall.

I think the southern wobbles through off the GFS forecast track a bit, as even the GFS takes it back a degree or so west one last time before going east.

We shall see what happens.
1264. Mediate
long time lurker here. I took some photos today in St. pete of some tornado damage and surge damage
attachment
for a tropical storm, some of the squalls and bands sure had a lot of power. what a crazy event this has been for all florida west coasters. 




1265. Grothar
got to guys. I am hallucinating now. I thought I just saw a young lady sitting on a fire hydrant. Take care and watch for those bands wrapping around the center. Remember, I saw it first :P And I haven't been wrong since 1929 when I said the market was doing fine.

My prayers for all those people in harms way tonight. I hope it isn't as bad as they say. Floods are terrible things to experience.
1266. Sangria
I don't know how to do multiple quotes, but for either of you..(Gro or PP),if the trough has grabbed her, why has her center moved south?
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it does.


Although, I think this will just prevent any westward movement. I don't see it being strong enough to pull it through. GFS, so smart...

Lil Debby is giving us a good look at the steering currently in place as well. Not liking the trough situation.
Quoting Drakoen:


Most undergraduate curriculum includes math through Ordinary Differential Equations, although you will most likely need Partial Differential Equations. 2 semesters of Atmospheric Dynamics, Physics, and Synoptics, and some other general meteorology classes.

Tropical meteorology is usually studied at the graduate level because of its complexity. There is typically classes based just on it that you can take.
Maybe when I'm way older I'll go back to school to study meteorology, sure sounds interesting. As much as I want to study meteorology now, with the economy, job availability and pay in the field it makes a lot more sense for me to go into engineering. Plus the interesting weather and the good schools are on the other side of the US (not in southern california, so it would be a hassle).
1270. Grothar
Quoting emguy:


Grothar...You are right...and it's a problem if it continues. I don't like the trend. I'm gonna talk some about this in a bit...I just wanna see another frame or two before commenting. In the mean time, I wanted to thank you. It was Sunday morning and I was heading out the door, but I saw your compliment. I wanted to say thank you. That was very nice. I hope I helped. E-mail me any time...sometimes things get busy and this blog is progressive, but I'll always see an e-mail if you want to chat.


Thank you. Very nice of you. You should drop by my blog and read the comments I made on Debby if you want a laugh. Take care. em. You did well.
1271. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:
got to guys. I am hallucinating now. I thought I just saw a young lady sitting on a fire hydrant. Take care and watch for those bands wrapping around the center. Remember, I saw it first :P And I haven't been wrong since 1929 when I said the market was doing fine.

My prayers for all those people in harms way tonight. I hope it isn't as bad as they say. Floods are terrible things to experience.

Lol...I'm hoping for the same thing. Have a good night and stay safe, Grothar.
Quoting Sangria:
I don't know how to do multiple quotes, but for either of you..(Gro or PP),if the trough has grabbed her, why has her center moved south?


Because the trough hit the storm from the wrong angle, almost tangent from the north, and didn't have a deep enough amplitude as contact was made, so the storm "bounced" to the south, instead of being kicked off to the NE. It may still get steered eastward, but the trough doesn't have a deep hold on it like with storms that have classic hooks (think Camille, Katrina, or Wilma).
This makes Tropical Storm Fay look like Tropical Storm Don
1274. emguy
One quick note folks...I've been in Lexington, KY last few days on a trip. It's been warm and muggy. I just stepped outside and it is breezy, but most important, it is downright chilly here!!! I'm used to running my AC at an unhealthy temp of 68 degrees and I like cold (which can make me a bad Floridian sometimes). Point being, it's chilly enough that I came back inside and got a sweatshirt. Something to consider if you are looking at water vapor imagery or steering maps...It's getting absolutely sownright chilly here in Kentucky. Hope it helps.
1275. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The 27 to 28 Latitude is the entry point. That is some hefty dry air pumping directly in, we'll see.


You're trying to keep me awake, aren't you? :)
Quoting Sangria:
I don't know how to do multiple quotes, but for either of you..(Gro or PP),if the trough has grabbed her, why has her center moved south?


Steering can be pretty complex. Yes the trough has latched on but, not enough to pull her through. Basically it is negating any westward movement. If there was no trough there Debby would be heading west.
1277. Mediate
im having trouble loading on other photos on the same comment
1278. Sangria
Quoting RTSplayer:


Because the trough hit the storm from the wrong angle, almost tangent from the north, and didn't have a deep enough amplitude as contact was made, so the storm "bounced" to the south, instead of being kicked off to the NE. It may still get steered eastward, but the trough doesn't have a deep hold on it like with storms that have classic hooks (think Camille, Katrina, or Wilma).


Thank you !! It just did not make sense to me, why it was moving in the opposite direction....
Quoting RTSplayer:


yeah, but not as much as it needs to be.

It has too shallow of an amplitude, and too long wave length.

I think the axis has already passed Debby, or else it's too close to call.

This is why some of the models still take Debby west again, in some cases even after the Florida land fall.

I think the southern wobbles through off the GFS forecast track a bit, as even the GFS takes it back a degree or so west one last time before going east.

We shall see what happens.


See Post 1268.

In agreement.
1280. Grothar
Quoting RTSplayer:


Because the trough hit the storm from the wrong angle, almost tangent from the north, and didn't have a deep enough amplitude as contact was made, so the storm "bounced" to the south, instead of being kicked off to the NE. It may still get steered eastward, but the trough doesn't have a deep hold on it like with storms that have classic hooks (think Camille, Katrina, or Wilma).


Very good analogy. That is why some storms interact as soon as they hit the coastlines and cause tremendous rain bands.
1281. Sangria
Thank you both RTS and PP for your replies.....
Well, apparently Cantore did NOT actually leave St. Marks. Maybe that was mis-communication, as they just did a live segment again, though I don't know how that lighting makes any sense as this hour. He was near the lighthouse there, so he has no problem with flooding.
1283. Grothar
Quoting nigel20:

Lol...I'm hoping for the same thing. Have a good night and stay safe, Grothar.


Nite Nigel.
1284. Grothar
Quoting jamesrainier:



larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_serc.gif


Hey, James. That is also showing some moisture trying to feed back into the circulation.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, apparently Cantore did NOT actually leave St. Marks. Maybe that was mis-communication, as they just did a live segment again, though I don't know how that lighting makes any sense as this hour. He was near the lighthouse there, so he has no problem with flooding.


They've been playing the same clips for over 6 hours - watch long enough and you'll see the footage of them driving away from St. Mark's, complete with Cantore's obligatory "hunker down" comment.
2100z


00z


0300z
Sitting here sweltering in Houston. However, my Davis Vantage Pro is predicting "mostly cloudy and cooler. Precip possible within 12 hours, possibly heavy at times. Windy." Its predictions have been surprisingly accurate in the past. Davis, don't fail me now!!
RTS: That was a report filed much, much earlier.
Quoting FrancesJeanne:


They've been playing the same clips for over 6 hours - watch long enough and you'll see the footage of them driving away from St. Mark's, complete with Cantore's obligatory "hunker down" comment.


How misleading of Adam Berg then.

It was as if he was making a "conversation" with Jim on that re-run clip, unless the whole conversation was a re-run...


Maybe the whole crew took the night off or something...
1290. nigel20
000
WTNT34 KNHC 260537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM..
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...ALTHOUGH DEBBY HAS WEAKENED SOME TODAY...COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT YET DIMINISHING. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE TUESDAY
MORNING...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA.


TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1291. Grothar
The only bad thing about these blogs tonight is that Dr. Masters will probably come in with an update and none of the other bloggers won't see them and know how smart we are. :) Good night for real, people. It was good tonight.

Put out good thoughts for those people. They may do the same for us someday.
2am advisory out. Moving East now.
Circulation center nearly visible here, putting off some rough looking bands in NE too.

1294. nigel20
Hopefully Debby will not be too much of a rain event tomorrow...have a good night everyone!
1295. 7544
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA.'

going back to so fl again it was so dry there today
1296. Grothar
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
2am advisory out. Moving East now.


If it does move east as we expected, it should be able to begin to grab that moisture around it. That is why they are calling for heavy rain as far South as South Florida.
1297. rjla67
Long time lurker and this is the best place of information on current weather events and I really appreciate the knowledge everyone shares.

I am in the New Port Richey, Florida area and Sunday was the worst weather event I have seen since moving here in 2005. We got hit hard with rain, and many areas around here are under water and other places look like one is driving through the Everglades. It is simply shocking and we are not out of the woods yet here.

I posted numerous pics via my Twitter feed of what we saw around here driving around today if anyone wants to check them out. Here is the link:

@OceanBahia

Stay safe everyone.
Have a great night, everyone. My thoughts are with those being impacted by Debby.
1299. skook
Feeder bands starting to line up again on the west coast of FL.


Today, at least east of Tampa, in Brandon, was pretty quiet. Still windy, but little rain, and only 1 tornado warning, around 7:30pm. Spent about 3-4 hours outside tonight, with maybe winds gusting to about 25 or so every few minutes. As Tampa, especially south Tampa is flooding due to the bay and the rainfall, we have fared pretty Lucky here. some branches down here and there and minor flooding
hmm so what does happen when she gets in fresh warm water the gulf stream?
Quoting floridaT:
hmm so what does happen when she gets in fresh warm water the gulf stream?


Good quetion someone posted a photo of the water temp and if I remember correctly it wasn't much warmer then where she is now. I think what she does tonight will give us an idea of if she can get her act together or not. It looks like she is trying to wrap up.
Wonder if upwelling has been kept to a minimum since the dry air intrusion allowing more sunlight to reach the surface underneath the system? Perhpas the storm can get back to a strong Tropical Storm possibly Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall on the FL coast. Thoughts???
Why do some computer models still show Debbie going west???
If this keeps up there is going to be massive catastrophic inland flooding all the way from the bend to the east coast along that main band.

The storm is only moving like 4 or 5 mph, and you're looking at 1 to 2 inches per hour rainfall rates everywhere along that band, and at times 3 to 5 inches per hour, and do that for another day or two, and the entire region is going to get 2 feet or more of rain from one side of the state to the other along that band.
New update on my blog right now...including in-depth look at Debby at this hour....check it out....
Quoting Lowerline:
Why do some computer models still show Debbie going west???


Because that is still a very, very real possibility.

The trough has only barely influenced Debby so far. If the storm gets behind the trough's axis, a ridge will build back in and kick Debby to the west...likely dragging that massive rain band with it, back over the same areas again...


It's a bad situation either way. If hte storm moves ENE the entire line through the Lake City area all the way to the east coast is going to get flooded anyway.


The best thing that could happen right now is if the storm turned hard to the SE and moved that way for a while to give these people a break....anything to stop the training effect from the main band...

Movement to the ENE or WSW is no good at all, as the flooding will be just about as bad either way.

I wonder how much damage due to flooding/tornadoes will there be after all is said and done...
1308. emguy
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Good quetion someone posted a photo of the water temp and if I remember correctly it wasn't much warmer then where she is now. I think what she does tonight will give us an idea of if she can get her act together or not. It looks like she is trying to wrap up.


Hi Weathergrl. Debby is doing everything she possible can in an attempt to intensify. If I could charachterize the tennacity of this system, I'd say it's a complete fighter.

That said, she has been attempting her best to get something wrapped around her center. If she could, It would greatly help to beat the dry air. On the color enhanced IR, this is seen as a gray colored donought. I'd personally like to see this gray turn blue, then yellow on the IR. Not happenning yet, and even may be starting to grow more ragged.

So, despite the pressure drop tonight, accompanied by higher flight level winds, the overall trend is that despite her continued fight to get something going, she is not winning the battle right this moment.

On sea surface temps, they were just as warm (or warmer) along the coast prior to Debby. That said, being that Debbie is moving through shallower shelf waters, the upwelling and heat exchange has chilled these water out fast. The high surf, such as what has been observed all the way up the coast of FL has also cooled the waters farther. This will contnue and should become less supportive for intesnification.

Down the road, it should be noted that gulf coast water tempratures will rebound after Debby is gone and the gulf calms back down. One exception will be in the extreme Florida Big Bend area. After things do calm down...heavy river runoff will likely continue to pour into shallow waters and keep the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico cooler that average for quite some time.
Quoting rjla67:
Long time lurker and this is the best place of information on current weather events and I really appreciate the knowledge everyone shares.

I am in the New Port Richey, Florida area and Sunday was the worst weather event I have seen since moving here in 2005. We got hit hard with rain, and many areas around here are under water and other places look like one is driving through the Everglades. It is simply shocking and we are not out of the woods yet here.

I posted numerous pics via my Twitter feed of what we saw around here driving around today if anyone wants to check them out. Here is the link:

@OceanBahia

Stay safe everyone.

Thanks for sharing! Strange nobody seems to bother with sandbags and such, considering how close the water has come...
1310. jdjnola
Quoting cntrclckwiseSpenn:
Wonder if upwelling has been kept to a minimum since the dry air intrusion allowing more sunlight to reach the surface underneath the system? Perhpas the storm can get back to a strong Tropical Storm possibly Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall on the FL coast. Thoughts???


I was thinking the same thing earlier. Also, she's sitting on shallow continental shelf waters. I'm wondering if her winds are pushing the colder upwelled water to her west and pulling warmer water in from the abundant reserve of warm water to her south and southwest. Sitting on the shelf, she wouldn't have to displace much water to achieve this kind of "heat train" effect.
Link

Can really see covection burst over N Fla and in Atl.
High over W Cuba and ULL in SW Gulf evident also..
1312. 7544
looks like debby is gonna have a better dmax tonight than lastnight
Risk of sea-level rise with warming see

The researchers predicted that by 2100, sea levels in the hotspot would rise by between 20 and 29 centimetres above the global increase, which most oceanographers predict will be about one metre.

"Many people mistakenly think that the rate of sea-level rise is the same everywhere as glaciers and ice caps melt,” said Marcia McNutt, director of the USGS. However, regional variations in temperature, water salinity and air pressure can cause rates of increase to differ considerably, as can ocean currents and land movements.


The sea-level-rise law proposed by North Carolina senators would have banned researchers in state agencies from using exponential extrapolation to predict sea-level rise, requiring instead that they stick to linear projections based on historical data.

“Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise,” it read.

Following international opprobrium, the state House of Representatives rejected the bill on Tuesday. However, a compromise between the House and the Senate will see a three-to-four-year moratorium on exponential analysis while the state conducts a new study on sea levels.

According to the local media, the bill was the handiwork of industry lobbyists and coastal municipalities who feared that investors and property developers would be scared off by predictions of high sea-level rises.

The core of the lobbying campaign lay in the promotion of a single paper published in the Journal of Coastal Research last year2 by James Houston, retired director of the US Army Corps of Engineers’ research centre in Vicksburg, Mississippi, and Robert Dean, emeritus professor of coastal engineering at the University of Florida in Gainesville, who reported that global sea-level rise has slowed since 1930. The article has been seized on by conservative climate sceptics around the world, and the authors have toured US climate-sceptic conferences.

Points of view
Speaking to Nature, Dean accused the oceanographic community of ideological bias. “In the United States, there is an overemphasis on unrealistically high sea-level rise,” he said. “That is the position of most of the scientists investigating this topic. And the reason is budgets. I am retired, so I have the freedom to report what I find without any bias or need to chase funding.”

Sallenger and his team have been conducting their research since long before the North Carolina legal controversy flared up, but their paper specifically targets Houston and Dean’s research. It says that Huston and Dean's data sets encompass multiple time periods, causing three-quarters of their data to be biased towards masking the acceleration of sea-level rise in the northeast hotspot.

Sallenger would rather focus on his science than make any comment about politics. “We do science at the USGS that is relevant to policy, but we don’t make policy. That’s for the state legislature,” he says. “There are caveats in all of this, but our work suggests it would not be correct to project future rises using a linear interpretation.”

North Carolina is not the only ‘hotspot’ for efforts by conservatives to legislate away the reality of sea-level rise. In 2011, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality removed all references to rising sea levels from a scientific study of Galveston Bay, and two weeks ago, the Virginia General Assembly passed a bill commissioning a study on rising sea levels only once references to sea-level rise and climate change had been removed.

nature
1314. jdjnola
Quoting RTSplayer:


Because that is still a very, very real possibility.

The trough has only barely influenced Debby so far. If the storm gets behind the trough's axis, a ridge will build back in and kick Debby to the west...likely dragging that massive rain band with it, back over the same areas again...


It's a bad situation either way. If hte storm moves ENE the entire line through the Lake City area all the way to the east coast is going to get flooded anyway.


The best thing that could happen right now is if the storm turned hard to the SE and moved that way for a while to give these people a break....anything to stop the training effect from the main band...

Movement to the ENE or WSW is no good at all, as the flooding will be just about as bad either way.



Was it the GFS that had the low split into two at this point? Vorticity is up in the W Atl. It would be interesting--and fortunate for those in the big bend--if something formed in the W Atl and a Fujiwhara effect swung Debby to the south.

1315. rjla67
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Thanks for sharing! Strange nobody seems to bother with sandbags and such, considering how close the water has come...


Pasco County enacted a state of emergency and they had county inmates in the Thousand Oaks area filling sandbags for residents at Torchwood Drive and Trinity Road. I posted a pic on Twitter and when we drove by, it was at least 20 cars deep all that way out onto Trinity Road. Very surreal to see.

Photo of Sandbagging in Thousand Oaks
A little history on the name "Debby."

Curiously, Deborah(Debby) (Hebrew: דְבוֹרָה‎) is a feminine given name derived from זבורה Zhorah, a Hebrew word meaning "bee." Deborah was a heroine and prophetess in the Old Testament Book of Judges.

In the story called the "Song of Deborah," a miraculous flood is credited with saving the Israelites from almost certain defeat in a key battle against the Canaanites.

"While Sisera is said to have had 900 iron chariots, "the Song of Deborah" implies that heavy rain rendered them ineffectual."

Apparently, she was the Joan of Arc of her day, and it wouldn't it be the last time that a bee helped forecast a torrential flood in Florida.


If tropical storm debby keep it up it will bring more rain then the tropical storm debby will be retired and if the storm keep it up then Debby will be in the retired hurricane names.
1318. zillaTX
Quoting Frankie1984:
If tropical storm debby keep it up it will bring more rain then the tropical storm debby will be retired and if the storm keep it up then Debby will be in the retired hurricane names.


well at least you said something.. blog has been more than half dead for the first time in like a week! lol.
1319. emguy
Quoting jdjnola:


Was it the GFS that had the low split into two at this point? Vorticity is up in the W Atl. It would be interesting--and fortunate for those in the big bend--if something formed in the W Atl and a Fujiwhara effect swung Debby to the south.



The GFS has seen Debby well, but not as a low pressure split. Debby has an arm that is a Low pressure trough. Along that, there is a natural axis of wind shift (vorticity), but the is well connected to Debby. That said, Debby, despite weak appearance is an established 992MB closed low. Nothing will be able to form on the "axis" arm because it is A.) A component of this system. B.) Not untypical C.) Is in close proximity, and D.) Debby is southwest of the area you are mentioning...in the area of greatest inflow and connection to the deep tropics. The vorticity may look appealing, but the idea of any splits, reformations on other side, formations of a second storm should be dismissed.

Fujiwhara effect is restricted to the following: two (2) independent and established tropical cyclones, which move within 700 miles of each other and begin to react with each other's rotation. In this case, we have one cyclone, and due to it's weak nature, a low pressure axis that extends NE from the system into the Atlantic. A typical June deal.

So...What about Post Florida Debby??? She will be of NO effect on the eastern seabord north of Florida (outside of rains in GA. Once captured into the trough, the storm will move ENE out to sea. On closest pass, the storm would still pass east of the Carolinas and/or further north in a weather free zone. After Florida, Debby will remain trackable, but as a system moving into open seas. As for model intensity in the Atlantic? Okay, I know we just had Chris at a high lattitude, but the model intensity for Debby is WAYYYYY overdone. Maybe good enough opportunity to get her to CAT 1 hurricane as she peels ENE into the Atlantic, but that is likely it for her.
Are the high pressures to the North and West advancing towards the storm or away from it?
Link


Looks lika a lot of dry air being pushed down from the north. Maybe this can hamper the convection for a while
Not many people on the night shift, or early AM shift, tonight.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260841
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E.
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN SPITE OF ITS
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR
APALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND. DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES
OVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A
DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND
TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY
BEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO
MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS. WHEREAS THE LATTER
SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 29.0N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.0N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.0N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.1N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 29.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 29.9N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 30.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 31.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


debby might be a hurricane in 7 days!!
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Not many people on the night shift, or early AM shift, tonight.

Yeah, might be because Debby still looks so ragged-looking..

I clearly see the center but there's no convection near it; it's all east of the center. When will she finally wrap up the convection?
1325. dewfree
looks like Debby is finally going to move toward it's crossing of the fl peninsula.as forecasted Fri. Will not make another suggestion on where it will go from there untill the crossing is complete.too many variables past the point of landfall .
was sure and still am sure that the ridge to the west though it blocked debby for a short period was not capable by stregnth alone of reaching across and puller her back west ,even though all the models except the GFS thought this would be the case .
Am glad in iether case that she is finally moving again and possibly to where it was suppose to go .Several of the models are now indicating that the storm is goin in that direction . maybe she will get over land and lose some of her ability to cause so much misery.Lets hope so any way /have a good night folks around the blog .
dew
does anyone know what the winds will be across central florida today? I work outside.
1327. LargoFl
1328. LargoFl
1329. LargoFl
Good Morning everyone!..another windy and rainy day around here once again, I think everyone now understands, there is no such thing as "its just a tropical storm"..as far as damage is concerned, mother nature has many weapons, high winds are just one of them..she is showing us here, just how powerful she can be, even without wind huh..i cannot believe the sheer rainfall number totals coming out and STLL raining, alot of people will be suffering when this is all over, prayers for them and their families.......have a safe day everyone
Morning all! I didn't really check on Denny yesterday, had a few things to do, what did I miss?
1331. LargoFl
1332. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC015-027-055-071-115-261115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0033.120626T1035Z-120626T1115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
DESOTO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT.

* AT 626 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUNCOAST ESTATES...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BABCOCK WEBB WMA...LAKE SUZY...BABCOCK RANCH...FORT OGDEN...VENUS
AND ARCHBOLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
1333. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning everyone!..another windy and rainy day around here once again, I think everyone now understands, there is no such thing as "its just a tropical storm"..as far as damage is concerned, mother nature has many weapons, high winds are just one of them..she is showing us here, just how powerful she can be, even without wind huh..i cannot believe the sheer rainfall number totals coming out and STLL raining, alot of people will be suffering when this is all over, prayers for them and their families.......have a safe day everyone


Amen lets hope Debby ingests some dry air from her NW
or opens up into a wave and gets outta there...
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning from Trinity ... I wonder where the rain chance is coming from, given the latest water vapor imagery...
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning everyone!..another windy and rainy day around here once again, I think everyone now understands, there is no such thing as "its just a tropical storm"..as far as damage is concerned, mother nature has many weapons, high winds are just one of them..she is showing us here, just how powerful she can be, even without wind huh..i cannot believe the sheer rainfall number totals coming out and STLL raining, alot of people will be suffering when this is all over, prayers for them and their families.......have a safe day everyone
forgot.fay?
It appears to me that she is moving slightly SE now favoring the GFS solution. Does anyone else see that?
in 1994 the remants of debby brought Key West 7 inches of rain in a short time, flooding the streets.
Good Morning. The nasty weather has finally cleared out of the Big Bend and Panhandle. Just took a look at the 5:00 am forecast track. The folks at the GFL lab are drinking coffee, high fiving and, someone probably brought in doughnuts and cupcakes too......
Morning all, long time lurker first time commenting. I love all your insights, even, when y'all don't agree. I live in Volusia County, FL, however, work in Tampa, so I'm back & forth all the time. Needless to say, despite my ID, I'm ready for Debbie to be on her way. I like my storms to hit, do their damage & get out.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning everyone!..another windy and rainy day around here once again, I think everyone now understands, there is no such thing as "its just a tropical storm"..as far as damage is concerned, mother nature has many weapons, high winds are just one of them..she is showing us here, just how powerful she can be, even without wind huh..i cannot believe the sheer rainfall number totals coming out and STLL raining, alot of people will be suffering when this is all over, prayers for them and their families.......have a safe day everyone




Well said Largo!!!
1343. gator23
Quoting wckdtribal:


This image says it all. The center is believe it or not better defined and Debby has closed off. She will likely not ingest dry air. If shear were to lessen you would see an eye like feature develop very quick. I believe this will not happen
I moved a friend to Naples on Saturday, I will be heading back north on Thursday afternoon, as a EM guy I look out of the box with weather issues.
With that said I'm concerned with the Swannee river flooding
Causing the closure of I-75, my question is with the flooding could this issue be a reality and add to the problems associated with Debbie?
Historically has I-75 closed in the past due to flooding?
Just my thoughts!
good morning all. just dropping in for a min. someone said the other day it looks like Florida will get its Allison i thought at the time no way that could happen again. but sure enough it seems it is. Those of us in the Houston/Galveston area feel your pain. my thoughts and prayers are with you all.
euro.vehicles.downhill.too
Morning,

Even though we are miles from the center of Debby here in the upper keys, The wind has picked up again to 20 or so and gusting, wind has shifted from S to SSW, still overcast but the low level clouds are streaming accross the sky, we didn't have any of those yesterday and it actually calmed down to between 10 and 15.

Debby certainly has a broad reach.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I moved a friend to Naples on Saturday, I will be heading back north on Thursday afternoon, as a EM guy I look out of the box with weather issues.
With that said I'm concerned with the Swannee river flooding
Causing the closure of I-75, my question is with the flooding could this issue be a reality and add to the problems associated with Debbie?
Historically has I-75 closed in the past due to flooding?
Just my thoughts!


The Suwannee River runs through North Florida but does not cross under I-75 so you should be good to go; it runs from Georgia across the Big Bend before it empties into the Gulf..... I am not sure that is was the Suwannee that cause a closure on I-75.
1333. LargoFl


As someone who lives in N Fla, I would suggest you can throw that one away.

Look at the radar.

1353. ncstorm
Good Morning..
The images coming from Florida are just mind blowing..

My apologies to Trunkmonkey; I just took a look at a map and I think the Suwannee does cross under I-75 but I am not sure of where that is.....It must be very pretty close to the FL-GA border.
Quoting wckdtribal:
good morning from Trinity ... I wonder where the rain chance is coming from, given the latest water vapor imagery...
Good morning from Odessa!

You have to remember that water vapor imagery illustrates the moisture content of the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere only. The air aloft is very dry, but as we can easily feel on the ground, it is quite moist in the lower level of the atmosphere.

Throughout the day today as the column warms, the moisture at the surface will rise and moisten up the mid and upper levels enough to produce some heavy rain and thunderstorms opposed to low topped showers which we've been experiencing overnight.

Hope that helped :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My apologies to Trunkmonkey; I just took a look at a map and I think the Suwannee does cross under I-75 but I am not sure of where that is.....It must be very pretty close to the FL-GA border.
close.to.s.r.music.park
Either I need glasses or a shot or rum, but on radar it looks like a jog or drift to the SE, say it isn't so.
Quoting centrfla:
does anyone know what the winds will be across central florida today? I work outside.
Similar to yesterday, maybe stronger in the more organized bands since debby is moving very slowly closer to us.
I don't know how much gain we got last night here. My rain guage stops a SIX inches. I emptied it at 9 pm last night.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My apologies to Trunkmonkey; I just took a look at a map and I think the Suwannee does cross under I-75 but I am not sure of where that is.....It must be very pretty close to the FL-GA border.


The rivers are not in flood. The Suwanee floods from waters north of here and then backs up the Santa Fe and Itchtuknee . It's just the low lying areas that are getting more water than they can drain.
Ground water is full. It's gonna sit there for a bit.

Areas of I-75 and I-10 have and will continue to close until this witch moves outta here.

http://www.srwmd.state.fl.us/realtimeriverlevels/ realtimeriverlevels.aspx
TS Debby is moving or looks to be moving SE but I will wait a few hours and find out
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
5am advisory
29.0N 84.5W
7am advisory
28.9N 84.5W

what does that tell you
The Santa Fe that crosses under I-75 in central FL, north of High Springs, NW of Gainesville. The Suwannee River crosses under north of Lake City, west of White Springs.