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Debby in the making

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on August 21, 2006

A very strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa Sunday. The NHC and Navy have a system where they officially designate a disturbance as an "invest"--something worth investigating. This storm is called 96L, and if there were hurricane hunters within range, they would fly the storm, as the system already appears to be a tropical depression. However, NHC typically hesitates to label these systems fresh off the coast of Africa depressions until they hold together for at least a day. Many such systems fall apart within their first day over water. The waters under the wave are 27-28 C, which is .5-1.5 degrees C above the 26.5 C threshold for tropical cyclone formation--not great, but good enough. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the wave's north, and this will likely be a major inhibiting factor for this wave once it moves north of 15 N latitude.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 8am EDT Mon Aug 21 from the European satellite. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

The wave is impressive on satellite imagery this morning--low level spiral banding has formed, and there is a clear low-level rotation of the clouds. There is also some upper-level outflow developing on the east side. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to judge the surface winds. The GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL models develop the wave into a tropical storm; the UKMET does not. I expect that the model consensus is correct--this system will be Tropical Storm Debby by Wednesday. All the models predict that the storm will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm may bring tropical storm conditions to the Cape Verde Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves west or west-northwest at 15 mph just south of the islands. Although it is too early to be certain, the Cape Verde Islands will probably be the only land areas the storm will affect. The preliminary model runs point to a track that will eventually recurve the storm out to sea before affecting any other land.

Sea surface temperatures cool to below the 26.5 C threshold tropical systems prefer north of the Cape Verdes Islands, so once the system moves north of about 15 N latutide, it may weaken. There is also a lot of dry air and Saharan dust to the north that will cause trouble for it. The GFDL model does intensify the storm to a Category 1 hurricane, then weakens it as the dry air and cooler SSTs take their toll.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the Atlantic disturbance 96L.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and the computer models are not forecasting any development through Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

im confused. is there a tropical depression or not...
The NHC sure are keeping quiet...

with TD 10E they immediately started issueing advisories at 6 pm UTC.
WPB.... mail for you..
Does anyone know what conditions cause a pinhole eye to form?
Debby will attack the dreaded dust cloud -- that is her fate, young Skywalker.
id say its already a tropical storm, and where is nhc this is amazingly bizarre and a smidge ironic
Guys models change all the time but 96L in my opinion will never reach the U.S. coastline.nothings for sure but it will take some incredible changes for it to happen.

MODELS FOR 96L
JP Speaking of Wilma-was she the higest sustained winds in the gulf ever 185+. Im settling a bet.
sorry i mean tropical depression
And for heaven's sake, Dr. M, don't say TD4/Debby will "only be a threat to Bermuda." Those Bermudanians get mighty testy with statements like that.
Don't think Wilma was that strong in the Gulf.
A pinhole eye usually forms during a period of explosive intensification (smaller eye = faster intensification). As for why this happens, no one really knows (what caused Wilma to suddenly blow up after developing very slowly, taking several days to go from TD to hurricane)?
Your right JP to be a Cape Verde storm it has to form near the Cape Verde Islands.
..Camille broke the anemonetor @ the Control Tower at Keesler AFB with a sustained wind gust that measured 211 mph..in August 69..
Afternoon All

Just finished viewing the Navy sat.
96L/td4 looks pretty impressive to me. Me thinks we may have a winner on our hands..
re: "gll at 8:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2006.
Hey guys & ladies,
I am new here and do not know come here from sicem about weather forcasting. I would like to learn. Could some of you old hands help an idiot out.What is going on with the atlantic?
GLL" hi don't feel bad, we are not ignoring you, we are having a whose blob is the blobbiest convention....hang around it will become clearer in a century or two!! anyway, wu is great for us newbies, and in fact if you go to the blogs on the top, one of them is a "teacher in disguise" and he gives wonderful on-going lessons, and we also have anothe newbie blog and, forgive my forty-something moment, i can't for the life of me remember, how bout it, guys, which blog is it? anyway, welcome, jo
vortextrance, it wasnt becasuse it was moving 20MPH, only had time to become a cat. 3
Jp, Michael,
I've been watching the waves push off Africa and for the most part pushed West...Why Would this wave move North? I don't understand why a High keeps waves west but a Tropical storm, hurricane can push through the High? say a Hurricane is Cat 2-3 but the High is 1028M and the Hurricane is 960MB which wins out and why?? I know I hear metreologists say if a Hurricane is strong enoiugh it can plow through a high?
StoryOfTheHurricane: Is Portis healthy? Better watch out for my Texans. They might double their win total this year!
i think if not to sea, mid atlantic
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 8:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2006.
vortextrance, it wasnt becasuse it was moving 20MPH, only had time to become a cat. 3


Not sure what your talking about.
LinkIsabel turned west after woving NW
STL

Just curious if all the pinhole hurricanes formed in a certain set of conditions, or near a common location.
In other words, is it the rapid intenification that causes the pinhole eye, or does it become a pinhole because of the underlying structure of the storm that causes the rapid intenification?
gll, sorry, LRandyB's Tropical Weather Blog is our hurricane hunter and you can get his blog on top, if i can remember the other newbie blog i will write back, jo
heh did the Joint Typhoon Warning Center start making advisories for Tropical Depression Ten-E and National Hurricane Center follow suit? =P
531. Inyo
I wouldnt be surprised if StormTop was a great guy in real life, but he's a horrible blog poster, let's face it.

I used to know someone who worked on that Johnston Island as a biologist.. I wonder if he is still there.. if so he should be in for a storm!
If This system manages to stay weak and move on a westward path it may have some chance at survival.but if it moves to the north the SAL with probaly weaken the circulation greatly.

See here all the dry air the north of the system.


ONE OF THE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE LARGE AREA OF DUST TO THE N AND W
OF THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A
FACTOR IT WILL BE.


impressive...... sure hope this is INDEED a designated fish storm!!!

According to this, it is related to rapid intensification, and this says that certain conditions are required:

In order for rapid deepening to occur, several conditions must be in place. Water temperatures must be extremely warm (near or above 30C, 86F), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep to avoid waves churning up cooler waters. Wind shear must be low; when wind shear is high, the convection and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted. Usually, an anticyclone in the upper layers of the troposphere above the storm must be present as well. For extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm. An upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently.
OK, I just threw together a quick website in which is where I'm going to be posting my tropical discussions at least twice a day. I've published an a discussion on TD4 now, so check it out and bookmark it! LOL Click here.
patrap. thks. I lost.
I was like 1 1/2 yrold when Camille hit. Guess I should have paid more attn back then. Oh, well. :)
Hey Debby, get out your Visine
Has anyone been able to pull up the GFS 12Z run off the FSU site?
..Carr Wave presenting impressive infared signature & visible impression is showing some hints @ org..South of the Isle of Youth...
When a system develops this far out in the atlantic doesn't it depend on trough hooking up with the system to push it out to sea?


The NW Carribean system still has organized showers/storms could this still develop, Danny Treanor on CFNews 13 to watch it he said" Anytime you get organized showers you must watch it"
..sorry mista...I was a dissalusioned 9 yr old @ the time..LOL
Usually it seems to me that "we" maintain that the models (a) only provide reasonable guidance when they are well initialized with conditions, and when they accurately initialize the storm itself in the model run, and (b) are only good a few days out.

So, perhaps the significant question is "How much latitude do the more reliable models have TD 4 gaining in the next three days, and how well are those models initializing this storm so far?"

Beyond that, it seems like the models are guessing, and we shouldn't so much be questioning the accuracy of track models as the accuracy of the large-scale models for the controlling highs and shear.

Any other thoughts?

Zap
TD 4 Has officially formed.
I remember Fran (as you can probably tell from my handle). 16 hours of 100+ MPH winds and intense rainfall. (only 8 short weeks after Bertha). This year reminds me a lot of 1996, which, if you remember, followed a record season the previous year in which no storms hit the East Coast.
vortexantrance repling to this:

Posted By: vortextrance at 8:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2006.
Don't think Wilma was that strong in the Gulf.


i was agreeing
Michael/Ormond,

Exactly the condiions that resulted in Katrina, Rita and Wilma becoming the monsters that they became. As has been documented on here, the warm GOM eddies combining with the characteristics you just provided resulted in not seen before(modern anyway) intensification of these storms. That's my understanding anyway. Correct as necessary.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING TODAY TO WARRANT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z. SINCE THEN...A
SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. GIVEN THIS...AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE
LOW...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO TAKE A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE BAM SUITE OF MODELS. NEITHER
THE UKMET NOR NOGAPS HANG ON TO THE CYCLONE AND THESE MODELS TAKE
ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD.

OUTER BANDING STRUCTURES ARE WELL DEFINED...BUT OVERALL THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS STILL A LITTLE THIN. WATER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.

PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE WITHIN THE FORECAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND SWATH...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
TD 04
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.5N 21.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.0N 23.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 25.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 27.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 30.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 35.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 23.5N 41.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 26.5N 46.5W 60 KT
Yeah - weatherunderground has actually posted TD4 on the map!
AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 212033
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT34 KNHC 212033
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM AST MON AUG 21 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N...21.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Climatology says Debby is a fish storm.

history
TS warning for cape verde islands
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



Now can we have some more fun with ST?


looks like 40-45knot winds in a few places....... and lots of 35knot winds.....
The NHC has not posted that on there site yet...
swlaaggie:

Let's wait until it happens. I'm driving through your neck of the woods on Thursday (son at LSU, Parents' Club cooks for rush). Any weather forecasts?
561. IKE
TD4 leads to TS Deb leads to problems for the Cape Verde islands====== NO ST for awhile!!!!

Please hurt no one TD4 aka Deb...but thanks for forming! A Deb today keeps ST away!!!!!!!!!
ok guys just got it.
Looks like this one might stay out to sea--- what do you guys mean by SAL--new here ---just asking?
Oreo,

Darn near fall. Scattered t'storms, highs in upper 80's, lows in low-low 70s. Bring a sweater.

:)
SAL - Cloud o' dust from the Sahara.
I don't get why everyone gets so hyped on on what ST says...
He's just a grumpy old guy with a loud opinion (hence the CAPS.. he uses : )
Yeah.. he's arrogant, sometimes obnoxious.. but he's like a celebrity on this blog because everyone always quotes from him--there's lots of people that give crazy predictions on this blog..
He's not going to apologize, or say he's wrong.. so what't he point? Just..MHO
This TD will never reach the U.S.goodnews.
swla:

And it's my first crossing of the Atlantic -- I need my wrap!
SAL - Saharan Air Layer (dust)
570. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:49 PM CDT on August 21, 2006.
This TD will never reach the U.S.goodnews.


Nope....fishie storm...top..........
Oreo? He went to LSU? We've got to keep Tx boys in Tx. Did he look at A&M?

Just kidding. LSU is a fine school. Have a safe trip.
hey Savannah. If a storm organizes in the ATL and no one in America has to file a claim, did it ever really exist?
Dr. Lyons says Debby in 12 hours or less.
More information on the SAL (Saharan Air Layer).
Yes, it did. I just posted a picture of a lot of storms that never made it to the US and existed. What a silly question...
Dr. Steve Lyons did not mention a bit about the Cape Verde Islands.
Wilmas eye almost had the characteristics of a large tornado at the center of a hurricane and the tightest wind gradient Ive ever seen for a storm that big, 115mph to 185mph winds within a 30 miles radius of the storms center. Whatever burst of convection that caused this was definitely unique to a very few storms. Ive heard arguments that when winds reach a certain strength at the oceans surface the distinction between the water and the atmosphere are indistinct so to speak. Making the absorption of heat content much more efficient. Seems like the compactness of a storm aids the development of a pinhole eye also, as large mass of moving water vapor does tend to overshoot the center
hurricane23 it's way too early to say it won't affect the U.S. Anything could happen with these storms and I know that many times the models have been way off. So we'll just have to see what happens as it happens.
Callme,

I've always said his enthusiasm is inspiring and that he is never boring. He just is an easy target and I don't think the ribbing is personal(in most cases). In fact, I'm guessing he enjoys the pseudo-celebrity status and the pain that goes along with it.
JP looks like it will be a fish storm (get the currents in a sec)
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2006.
"This TD will never reach the U.S.goodnews."

is that "written in stone"?? LOL
Weatehr456 he said it's going to come near the Cape Verde Islands on the track it's on.
hurricane23, its way to early to say that.
456 beat me too it, oops sorry
snotly - actually, Wilma's hurricane force winds (74-185 mph) extended only 15 miles from the center at peak intensity (it later increased to 105 miles after the EWRC).
591. gll
Hey HobeSoundShudders,
Thanks. I am trying to learn something from you folks. This seems to be the place to learn when folks are not fighting back and forth. I guess opinions differ.
GLL
SAV: "you are so helpful. I didnt realize that. Wow, you learn something new everyday. I'm so stupid."

I hope you can hear the sarcasm in my voice. ;)
Jp,
use 1010-1011, the first set

Kyle,
I stand corrected then.....
o, ok, ya, ok never mind
ya 23 what are you Nostradamus? Note: Computer models are subject to error
The steering maps says westward movement....
Ok, I see we have TD 4 and most everyone already says fish storm. Is someone seeing something that I am not?

The ridge looks pretty well in place, so please educate me on how she can bust through and move NW or N and curve...
im saying westward movement too
No one is mentioning the Car. wave. Seems to be holding its own unlike yesterday.
a turn north wouldnt surprise me tho
i see a fish storm, just not a curve so soon
If you watch the 5-day steering current loop, you'll notice the ridge building, not getting weaker.
Lets see if TD 04 chooses the west or go by the computer models.
swla:

Yep. Now, remember, I'm an orange-blood. But, I have enough aggies in my family that I lost all signs of rabies a while back. He chose to go there in Pet. Eng. and loves it.
Ioke just exploded in the Central Pacific, skipping Cat. 2 status altogether. Jumped from 85 mph to 115 mph in one advisory.

As for soon-to-be-Debby, looks like all she's gonna do is cause some noise pollution for a few fish. Still, first Cape Verde storm of the season.
609. IKE
Posted By: leftovers at 4:00 PM CDT on August 21, 2006.
No one is mentioning the Car. wave. Seems to be holding its own unlike yesterday.


It'll be a GOM wave/blob tomorrow.
even if it goes west a while, the odds are it will turn north well before reaching the US coast.

link to steering winds: Link
hey, genius' are almost always in a state of hyperactivity, and this site has some of the smartest folks on it i have ever had the pleasure to be acquainted with and some of the best learning I have gotten is when they are back & forth, don't get drawn into it, nor - in my opinion EVER take it personal, just watch, listen & wait, jo
TD 04

Weather456 what dos W mean?
Ok, please tell me (us) why a turn north wouldn't surprise you. What steering data are you seeing that is bringing you to this conclusion?
where u get that sprocketeer?? about Ioke
The discussion from the NHC says that the ridge will slide to the East in the next few days and erode, due to interactions with some mid latitude short waves. This will allow the TD to move more northwards.
I guess the monkeys on the Cape Verde Islands are seeking higher ground....thank God they have monkeyvision....
if you live anywhere west of this system, don't assume your out of the path until it takes that turn
i asked randy and he answered "LRandyB at 8:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2006.
Hey Jo.... NHC will task us to fly a storm when it crosses 55W. Usually the POD will come out possible positive when the system hits 50W to give us time to forward deploy to St. Croix in the USVI... which is the answer to your second question." jo
by looking at the photo weather456 it look like it moveing W passing the Cape Verde you think?
nash28 the high pressure looks to strong for it too curve soo soon, i say by about 60W just before the islands, that it should curve out
Major Hurricane IOKE

o well the CPHC for me says 85MPH
i said it wouldnt surprise me just cuz thats what the models are saying, but i believe it will remain on a westerly track until its steared differently
I already bought all the bread at my local grocery store
i see now it changed
Oh my goodness Oreo. At least you have family Ags to keep you in check.

My 14 year old wants to go to UT. Desperately trying to talk him out of it. Told him burnt orange just wouldn't look good on him at all. :)

Actually, I would be very proud if he was a UT grad. I'm headed to the bathroom now. LOL!
leftovers,
yeah I been watching it , no local mets in FL want to talk about it, it should give FL a soaking!!!I think its amazing how some people can write off a system so quickly in the East ATL after it develops, I already heard a meterologist in Central Florida say its not gonna hit us it won't hit the U.S. either, hmm, If I was a weatherman I might say this system is moving WNW and we will keep an eye on it to see if there are any deviations to push it West, that kind of lets peoples guard down too easily just say to the people in SC with Hugo and the weatherman said it won't hit us.
That's what I have been saying all day about the ridge. It is still a ways from 55 or 60W, so things can rapidly change. Many times this year, the models have forecasred a weakening along the ridge and it never turned out that way.
Guys the stronger this system gets the higher the chance for it to recurve out sea.Models take this system on a almost NW fashion as a couple of mid-latitude short waves move through Atlantic and erode the ridge.after it moves away from the cape verde islands i expect this system to only be a shipping problem. Lets see what happens.

Here are some models for TD 4.Showing a WNW direction to NW.


Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:07 PM PDT on August 21, 2006.
i see now it changed


what changed
Follow-up Oreo.

Yea, it doesn't surprise me that he loves LSU. I am surrounded with LSU grads and fans. They loved their time there as well. It truly is a good school and their engineering program is exceptional. I've had several who have worked with or for me in the past.
Hmm, anybody see Stormtop today? Didn't he say just a few days ago that there would not be any tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Basin for the rest of August? I think he might have added ... maybe at the very end of August. Never say never when prediction tropical storm formations.
IOKE: CAT 4 by tomorrow. I personally have never seen a CPAC hurricane that strong, but then again I've only been following the tropics for a few years.

000
WTPA22 PHFO 212053
TCMCP2

HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006

AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 166.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 166.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 167.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 85NE 65SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 169.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 85NE 65SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 170.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 65SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.7N 173.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...125NE 110SE 100SW 115NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.3N 175.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 177.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 166.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
Wow! 15 miles! STL. I was going by memory, thought I might stick my foot in my mouth. But Still! It looks like I didn't give Wilma full credit after all. So if the wind field increased and the intensity was somewhat maintained, I would argue that we had an even more powerful storm after the pinhole eye, just not as intense. I would assume that it is it the fact that its a balancing act to keep all the power compacted into a 15 mile gradient that makes these eyes so short lived. You reach a certain threshold and the storm flings itself apart.
Tazmanian:

I didnt see that Ioke is now a cat. 3 hurricane, and then when i posted that i saw they upgraded it
Gotta go. Everyone look east and start blowing. "Debbie does the US" just doesn't sound right.

Have a great evening.
Ihave27:

Your new Delta Chi name is Bronson -- because I believe you have a CV death wish!
Guys read my thoughts on what might happen with TD4.Again the reason it will eventually turn to NW is to a couple of short waves the will weaken the ridge.In my opinion this has a very little chance of even affecting the islands.
Afternoon all.

I see we are still wondering if the high will block TD4 or not. I am also intersted to see how TD4 acts out past the 144hr time frame. I am not completely convinced that it will not move W late in the forecast period.
Looking at the water vapor imagery, TD4 won't be having problems with Saharan dust for some time.

Waver Vapor Imagery: