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Death Valley's 113°: hottest April temperature on record in U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on April 24, 2012

An unprecedented April heat wave brought a second day of sizzling temperatures to the Western U.S. yesterday, where temperatures ranging 20 - 30 degrees above normal have toppled numerous all-time April heat records. Nearly every weather station in the Inter-mountain West has broken, tied, or come within 1 - 2 °F of their all-time record April heat record since Sunday. Most notably, the 113°F measured at Furnace Creek in Death Valley, California on Sunday, April 22 was tied for the hottest April temperature ever recorded in the U.S. According to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the hottest reliable April temperature ever measured in the U.S. was 113°F in Parker, Arizona in 1898. A 113°F reading was also taken at Catarina, Texas in April 1984, and at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley on April 24, 1946. A hotter 118°F reading measured at Volcano Springs, CA in April 1898 is considered unreliable, since we don't know much about the exposure conditions or if the thermometers were even in shelters at remote California desert stations back in the 1880s and 1890s. The previous hottest April day in Death Valley was 111°F. Yesterday, the high temperature in Death Valley "cooled off" to 110°F, merely the fourth highest April temperature ever measured there. The heat wave peaked Sunday and Monday, and temperatures will be closer to normal for the remainder of the week.


Figure 1. All-time heat records for the month of April were set at 56 stations April 21 - 23, including at seven major cities. Image taken from wunderground's new extremes page.

As is often the case when a major Nor'easter is affecting the Eastern U.S., the record-breaking heat is due to a contortion of the jet stream that has created a strong ridge of high pressure over the Western U.S. Wunderground's extremes page lists 56 stations in the West in the past four days that have tied or broken all-time heat records for the month of April, including:

Phoenix, Arizona: 105°F (previous 105° April temperatures occurred on 4/20/1989 and 4/29/1992)
Las Vegas, Nevada: 99°F (tying old record set 4/30/1981)
Reno, NV: 90° (old record 89° 4/30/1981)
Elko, NV: 87° (old record 86° 4/30/1981). This also beat the previous so-warm-so-early-in-the-season record by 4°
Ely, NV: 84° (old record 82° 4/28/1992)
Winnemucca, NV: 90° (tying old record set 4/30/1981)
Grand Junction, CO: 89° (tying all-time April record also set on 4/29 and 4/30, 1992)

Boise, ID (91°) and Salt Lake City (88°) both came within 1°F of their record April max.


Figure 2. A late-season Nor'easter on April 23, 2012 leaves heavy snow on a farm in Penfield, NY. Image credit: wunderphotographer tvsportsguy.

Late-season Nor'easter winding down
The powerful late-season Nor'easter that brought snow, high winds, and heavy rains to the Northeast yesterday is winding down as it moves northwestwards into Canada. The storm brought an unusual amount of snow for so late in the season to western Pennsylvania, western New York, and the higher elevations in West Virginia. An earlier report posted by the NWS of 23.7” at Laurel Summit, Pennsylvania (elevation 2,770’) has now been scaled back to just 13.7”, according to the latest NWS Storm Summary. Many other higher-elevation locations saw snowfall amounts in the 6 - 12 inch range. Snow amounts were considerably lower in the major cities of the region; Buffalo, New York got 0.9", Rochester, New York, 2.8", and Erie, Pennsylvania, 0.5". The wet, heavy snow fell on regions where trees had already come into leaf, thanks to the surprise "Summer in March" heat wave that brought 80° temperatures to the Northeast over a month ago. High winds that accompanied the heavy snow caused extensive tree damage and power outages to at least 75,000 people in the region. However, the storm may have done more good than harm--widespread rainfall amounts of 2 - 4 inches occurred across Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Southeast New York, which is under moderate to severe drought. Rainfall deficits in the region were generally 5 - 10 inches, so the Nor'easter's rains will make a significant dent in the drought. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has updated his post on Record Late Season Snowfalls with information from this storm.

Jeff Masters

Heat Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks as always. The models did pretty good with this one.
Thanks Dr. M! This pattern of warm temperatures and abnormal storms is becoming hard to ignore, even for the biggest of skeptics. I wholeheartedly support your efforts to inform people of the threat that mankind faces from climate change.
The heat is on.

38 days til June 1st!
Quoting Jax82:
The heat is on.

38 days til June 1st!


Thank you Dr Masters. Jax,a day less.

Link
hydrus 9:39 AM CDT on April 24, 2012

We were 550 miles off of New York when an object approached the bow of our ship. It was nighttime, so all we saw was three red lights in the shape of a triangle. None of them blinked, they were on constantly. It was silent, and extremely fast and agile. In was so fast that when it moved from the front of the ship to the rear, it could not be seen. It was apparently observing us. I first saw it when I was just hanging outside the pilothouse, then I called the captain and one of the mates out to see if they had any idea what it was. No one knew. All I do know is that it was the fastest thing I have ever seen, could stop on a dime, and did not make a sound. I do not believe we have the technology now to make such a craft, never-mind back in 85 when we saw it. There was a U.F.O sighting in Colorado about a year ago that had a description similar to the one we saw out on the ocean.


Wow, makes you wonder just what really is going on. Maybe it all reveals itself come Dec. 21st 2012 lol That's what I hope it is much less end of world, but a revealing from the skies that changes everything and everyone and how we live and think
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Thanks Dr. M! This pattern of warm temperatures and abnormal storms is becoming hard to ignore, even for the biggest of skeptics. I wholeheartedly support your efforts to inform people of the threat that mankind faces from climate change.
Why does the 00Z run of the Canadian model show a huge mass of convection over Cuba and the Bahamas at the end, even though it doesn't show a low pressure center anywhere near it? The closest low it does show is missing that area by like 500 miles.

Maybe it's just a bad run or something?

Edit:

GFS shows it too, but the Euro doesn't show anything at all.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Why does the 00Z run of the Canadian model show a huge mass of convection over Cuba and the Bahamas at the end, even though it doesn't show a low pressure center anywhere near it? The closest low it does show is missing that area by like 500 miles.

Maybe it's just a bad run or something?


Remants of 91L and a ULL near the Yucatan.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Remants of 91L and a ULL near the Yucatan.



the 12Z is running..lets see if it will be consistent..
Quoting RTSplayer:
Why does the 00Z run of the Canadian model show a huge mass of convection over Cuba and the Bahamas at the end, even though it doesn't show a low pressure center anywhere near it? The closest low it does show is missing that area by like 500 miles.

Maybe it's just a bad run or something?

Edit:

GFS shows it too, but the Euro doesn't show anything at all.


Actually the euro is more robust compared to all the models. The euro shows a high coverage of precip over FL on Sunday. The Euro precip map is on this site if you need to refer to it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
359 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012


LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
GENERALLY DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATL EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WEAK MID LVL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS
RETREATS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS BRIEFLY...ENOUGH TO LET SOME REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
REACH FL BY LATE SAT. GFS/EURO ARE ALSO HINTING TO A POSSIBLE
LOW/TROUGH AXIS NEAR CUBA AND BRINGING AN AREA OF MOISTURE RIGHT
INTO THE STATE FROM SAT-MON. EURO SEEMS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF COVERAGE AND TIMING...WHILE GFS SHOWS A MUCH CONSERVATIVE
SOLUTION WITH POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
. SINCE IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO EMBRACE EURO SOLUTION...WILL GO AHEAD AN CARRY 20
POPS/SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SAT THROUGH MON.
Quoting ncstorm:


the 12Z is running..lets see if it will be consistent..


I think the GFS maybe right this time but the HPC is agreeing with the Euro so we will see shortly if the GFS picks up on this feature now.
From UFO's to back to the weather......... :)

Here is this months AussieMet ENSO forecast issued this morning...........Still locked in neutral conditions for the time being. Have to see what happens "earlier" in the Atlantic Basin season in June/July although we also know that the historical June/July average is 1-2 storms. I am more curious to see if ENSO neutral conditions will still be around during the peak months in Aug-September; if so, then the August Gray/Klotzbach outlook might increase the potential number of storms by 1-2 (although they are pretty confident, in the current outlook, of a swing to La Nina at some point hence the current low numbers)



Neutral ENSO conditions dominate Pacific
Issued on Tuesday 24 April | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral (neither El Nino or La Nina). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain at neutral levels at least into early winter.

All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, lie well within the ENSO-neutral range. Over the past week, the SOI has returned to values not seen since April 2010.

Some, but not all, climate models note an increased risk of El Nino conditions evolving during winter or spring. Historically, about 70% of two-year La Nina events are followed by neutral or El Nino phases.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Model outlooks currently suggest neutral conditions are the most likely scenario heading into the southern winter.

Thanks,Dr. Master,weather extremes continue.
Whatever happened to zonal flow.Seems to be deep troughs in the east or in the west.
Low off the east coast of Florida in 144 hours..
Today is the 2 year anniversary of the Yazoo City, MS EF-4 tornado. Ten people lost their lives in the tornado, with dozens more injured. The tornado destroyed half of the town and caused more damage to other towns along its path. The total path length was nearly 150 miles long, starting in Louisiana and stopping just north of Mississippi State University in Starkville. At its widest, the tornado reached a jaw-dropping 1.75 miles. This tornado has been overlooked due to more recent violent tornadoes, but let's not forget my fellow Mississippians today as some are still recovering mentally and property-wise.



By the way, here in Hattiesburg (60 miles from the Gulf) we got down to 39 degrees this morning. The reading of 39 breaks the previous record for the date by 2 degrees. Just thought it was an amazing turn of events considering the record-breaking March heat we experienced. No worries, though, as we look to return to the upper 80s for highs by the end of the week. :-)
Thanks Dr. Masters....good morning all
April 23, 2011

April 23, 2012
12Z GFS is showing a wet weekend across C & S FL. Similar now to the Euro as it looks as if an ULL and the remants of 91L are going to combine for some more much needed rains acros FL.

This is the GFS precip accum thru next Monday.

Quoting MississippiWx:
By the way, here in Hattiesburg (60 miles from the Gulf) we got down to 39 degrees this morning. The reading of 39 breaks the previous record for the date by 2 degrees. Just thought it was an amazing turn of events considering the record-breaking March heat we experienced. No worries, though, as we look to return to the upper 80s for highs by the end of the week. :-)


49 at my place and it felt every bit of it as this is the coldest it's been here since March 3rd or 4th.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS is showing a wet weekend across C & S FL. Similar now to the Euro as it looks as if an ULL and the remants of 91L are going to combine for some more much needed rains acros FL.

This is the GFS precip accum thru next Monday.

Pretty good bulls-eye right over Hispaniola right there too.  Something that needs to be watched.  
Quoting nigel20:


On that precip map notice all of the rain that is being predicted across the Caribbean. It really looks as if the rainy season across the Caribbean maybe trying to kick in. You guys in Jamaica look wet over the coming days. This also coincides with the increase in MJO again across this region.


Quoting ILwthrfan:

Pretty goodbulls-eyeright overHispaniolaright there too. Something that needs to be watched.


Yeah if you look closely at post# 24 you can see a speck of 10" accummlations being forecast across the higher elevations of Haiti/Domincan Republic. Not good!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


On that precip map notice all of the rain that is being predicted across the Caribbean. It really looks as if the rainy season across the Caribbean maybe trying to kick in. You guys in Jamaica look wet over the coming days.


Yeah, but look at Hispaniola...that can't be good.
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, but look at Hispaniola...that can't be good.


Yeah look at my post# 25. A speck 10" accummulations are being depicted on the GFS across Hispaniola. You can bet that this could be devastating if this happens as many hills across Hispaniola are deforested so anytime you get a rain like this it just rushes down those mountian sides with tremendous force.
28. CJ5
I thought this was interesting...just being objective.

Climate's 'usual tricks'
It will also reflect his new opinion that global warming has not occurred as he had expected.

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.

“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.

He pointed to Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Tim Flannery’s “The Weather Makers” as other examples of “alarmist” forecasts of the future.
Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah look at my post# 25. A speck 10" accummulations are being depicted on the GFS across Hispaniola. You can bet that this could be devastating if this happens as many hills across Hispaniola are deforested so anytime you get a rain like this it just rushes down those mountian sides with tremendous force.

Agreed...later fellow bloggers
Quoting CJ5:
I thought this was interesting...just being objective.

Climate's 'usual tricks'
It will also reflect his new opinion that global warming has not occurred as he had expected.

%u201CThe problem is we don%u2019t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books %u2013 mine included %u2013 because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn%u2019t happened,%u201D Lovelock said.

%u201CThe climate is doing its usual tricks. There%u2019s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,%u201D he said.

%u201CThe world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time%u2026 it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,%u201D he added.

He pointed to Gore%u2019s %u201CAn Inconvenient Truth%u201D and Tim Flannery%u2019s %u201CThe Weather Makers%u201D as other examples of %u201Calarmist%u201D forecasts of the future.
Link

Please note he is admitting to the TONE and CONTEXT of his book and articles, and not the content. A difference that will be missed by quite a few skeptics.
Quoting CJ5:
I thought this was interesting...just being objective.

Climate's 'usual tricks'
It will also reflect his new opinion that global warming has not occurred as he had expected.

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.

“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.

He pointed to Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Tim Flannery’s “The Weather Makers” as other examples of “alarmist” forecasts of the future.
Link
Lovelock has long been chastised by the scientific community overall as being far too alarmist, and predicting fairly outrageous things that few--if any--climate scientists agreed with. But he's now 92 (make of that what you will), and his personal pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way; some of his recent proclamations are ill-founded and, in fact, nonsensical. For instance, he now claims , "The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium", which is very much at odds with what the data show. Or his statement, "...we don’t know what the climate is doing," which is completely absurd...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lovelock has long been chastised by the scientific community overall as being far too alarmist, and predicting fairly outrageous things that few--if any--climate scientists agreed with. But he's now 92 (make of that what you will), and his personal pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way; some of his recent proclamations are ill-founded and, in fact, nonsensical. For instance, he now claims , "The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium", which is very much at odds with what the data show. Or his statement, "...we don’t know what the climate is doing," which is completely absurd...


Since we have been studying climate extensively for only about 50 years or so to be generous. I doubt, we as humans know much about the earths climate as a whole and how it works over long periods of times.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-251000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
534 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING TODAY...BUT A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE BEACHES SURROUNDING TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TODAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF TAMPA BAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR
CRITICAL WINDS AND AREAS WITH SEVERAL AREAS WITH HIGH ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY. AS
A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JELSEMA
The 25th paroxysm of Etna's New SE crater is happening at the time of writing. It started around 16:00 hrs local time with week Strombolian explosions accompanied by a steeply increasing tremor. Now, explosions are becoming near-continuous and a lava flow is being emitted from the SE-running fissure of the cone and flowing into the Valle del Bove.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Thanks,Dr. Master,weather extremes continue.
Whatever happened to zonal flow.Seems to be deep troughs in the east or in the west.


seasonal adjustment patterns as we continue with our course we have set
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Since we have been studying climate extensively for only about 50 years or so to be generous. I doubt, we as humans know much about the earths climate as a whole and how it works over long periods of times.
We've been studying it extensively for far more than 50 years, of course. But even if we hadn't--which, again, we have--the billions of observations made over that time, and the millions of bits of proxy data gathered over that time, and the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers written and published during that time, and the thousands of hard-working climate scientists who've devoted their entire careers to in-depth study during that time--all of these speak pretty loudly that we humans do, indeed, know much about the earth's climate. And what we know is this: the tens of billions of tons of carbon we pump into the atmosphere each year are having an increasingly pronounced effect on that atmosphere. For Lovelock or anyone else to claim otherwise is plain silly...
nice update
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Since we have been studying climate extensively for only about 50 years or so to be generous. I doubt, we as humans know much about the earths climate as a whole and how it works over long periods of times.


Generally, speaking, what you say is true. I would be hesitant to state that we do not know anything simply because we do not know everything there is to know concerning our climate. The Laws of Thermodynamics and the other Laws of Physics are fairly well understood, even if they cannot be fully explained. Scientists know about greenhouse gases and how they trap heat in the atmosphere. I do agree that there is yet much to be learned, but this does not necessitate discarding what we do know until we learn more. .... When you are building a house, you would not want to tear it down every time a new engineering technique was found. You would build off what you already have and only discard what no longer works.
Quoting Neapolitan:
We've been studying it extensively for far more than 50 years, of course. But even if we hadn't--which, again, we have--the billions of observations made over that time, and the millions of bits of proxy data gathered over that time, and the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers written and published during that time, and the thousands of hard-working climate scientists who've devoted their entire careers to in-depth study during that time--all of these speak pretty loudly that we humans do, indeed, know much about the earth's climate. And what we know is this: the tens of billions of tons of carbon we pump into the atmosphere each year are having an increasingly pronounced effect on that atmosphere. For Lovelock or anyone else to claim otherwise is plain silly...


we've been doing heart transplants for less than 50 years, too....but if I needed one....I wouldn't refuse it just because it's new knowledge...
New the heat was coming too the west 10 days ago all you have too do is look at similar maps from other years and see weather patterns repeat. Their is nothing new under the sun,just takes alot of looking at maps.
Quoting Neapolitan:
We've been studying it extensively for far more than 50 years, of course. But even if we hadn't--which, again, we have--the billions of observations made over that time, and the millions of bits of proxy data gathered over that time, and the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers written and published during that time, and the thousands of hard-working climate scientists who've devoted their entire careers to in-depth study during that time--all of these speak pretty loudly that we humans do, indeed, know much about the earth's climate. And what we know is this: the tens of billions of tons of carbon we pump into the atmosphere each year are having an increasingly pronounced effect on that atmosphere. For Lovelock or anyone else to claim otherwise is plain silly...


There was no way before the 1960's to research climate like we are currently. I understand the proxy data, but as you know the only true way to learn about an object, such as the earths climate, is through natural observation. How can we even be sure that it will react the same way it did hundreds or thousands of years. Who knows what changes it has gone through, and to say we absolutely know what is going to occur is over stating our knowledge of our earth.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


seasonal adjustment patterns as we continue with our coarse we have set


Don't you mean "course," as in journey, instead of "coarse," as a grade of something?
50 years ago we did not know the earth was 1 million degrees hot!!Algore 2010!!!
Quoting presslord:


we've been doing heart transplants for less than 50 years, too....but if I needed one....I wouldn't refuse it just because it's new knowledge...


That is different because the human heart is not a complex ever changing object. The heart has been the same for 50 years, the climate has not.
Quoting CJ5:
I thought this was interesting...just being objective.

Climate's 'usual tricks'
It will also reflect his new opinion that global warming has not occurred as he had expected.

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.

“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.

He pointed to Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Tim Flannery’s “The Weather Makers” as other examples of “alarmist” forecasts of the future.
Link


Lovelock has always been extreme in regards to the effects and amount of climate change. His projections on the amount of temperature increase as a result of CO2 simply do not match reality, nor the mass death and destruction as a result of said change. For example, a book he wrote cited an 8C temperature rise which is beyond even the worst case scenarios in the IPCC report and would require a higher forcing from CO2 than what current research indicates.

In addition, his claims of the end of humanity were equally extreme and really can't be backed up by the current science. Are changes happening and will they continue to happen? Yes. Will those changes have consequences? Of course. Will humanity become borderline extinct and only living in the arctic regions of the planet by 2100? Very very very unlikely.

So yes, his original projections about climate change and the consequences are pretty far off the mark and have always been. Fortunately he is honest enough to admit his mistake.

However, that does not mean he refutes global warming. His admission is about his particular views and interpretation of the science, not the science itself.


Quoting LargoFl:
The 25th paroxysm of Etna's New SE crater is happening at the time of writing. It started around 16:00 hrs local time with week Strombolian explosions accompanied by a steeply increasing tremor. Now, explosions are becoming near-continuous and a lava flow is being emitted from the SE-running fissure of the cone and flowing into the Valle del Bove.


In fact, it has already ended. The action took place last night and reached it's maximum in the wee hours of morning local time (but at that time I fortunately was asleep). Greetings from Europe.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There was no way before the 1960's to research climate like we are currently. I understand the proxy data, but as you know the only true way to learn about an object, such as the earths climate, is through natural observation. How can we even be sure that it will react the same way it did hundreds or thousands of years. Who knows what changes it has gone through, and to say we absolutely know what is going to occur is over stating our knowledge of our earth.

By this logic, our only way to do research on diseases such as Alzheimers and cancer is to observe stuff naturally. How can we be sure the treatment will react the same way based on a sample of just 1000 people, when there are millions out there with the disease?

We know CO2 levels are rising. We know that the rate of increase is unprecedented in all existing research. We know that CO2 has been proven to be a greenhouse gas. We also know that we are burning up natural resources at an unsustainable rate, and burning up those resources produces CO2 (that is via chemistry).

Put all that together, take out political motivations, and we come down to a simple destination - we are harming the Earth, and we don't know all of the effects.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is different because the human heart is not a complex ever changing object. The heart has been the same for 50 years, the climate has not.

The heart isn't complex? Why is there a whole field of medicine devoted to understanding the heart (cardiology)?

Understanding of it isn't constantly changing? Why do men and women show symptoms of heart attacks differently?

Just sayin'
Quoting jeffs713:

The heart isn't complex? Why is there a whole field of medicine devoted to understanding the heart (cardiology)?

Understanding of it isn't constantly changing? Why do men and women show symptoms of heart attacks differently?

Just sayin'


No the heart is very complex, but if you look at a human heart from 100 years ago and a human heart now. Same organ. No difference.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No the heart is very complex, but if you look at a human heart from 100 years ago and a human heart now. Same organ. No difference.

But our understanding of it has.

The climate changes, so does the atmosphere, and human culture. But more importantly, our understanding of the atmosphere, climate, human culture, and the human heart all changes constantly.
Quoting jeffs713:

By this logic, our only way to do research on diseases such as Alzheimers and cancer is to observe stuff naturally. How can we be sure the treatment will react the same way based on a sample of just 1000 people, when there are millions out there with the disease?

We know CO2 levels are rising. We know that the rate of increase is unprecedented in all existing research. We know that CO2 has been proven to be a greenhouse gas. We also know that we are burning up natural resources at an unsustainable rate, and burning up those resources produces CO2 (that is via chemistry).

Put all that together, take out political motivations, and we come down to a simple destination - we are harming the Earth, and we don't know all of the effects.


No... It would be like saying a certain disease reacted to a drug one way 50 years ago and saying there is no way it has mutated and will react differently. We don't know it wont and the only way we will find out is through observation.
G'day,
Well, enjoying the record to near-record late April cool temps had of late before warm ridging sets back in... Yep, coolest low temps since March 5th... Probably be October before see similar to this mornings readings, no doubt a slew of low records set across Gulf states - partial list below from New Orleans KLIX NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1054 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

...MULTIPLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN THIS MORNING...
THERE WERE SEVERAL RECORD LOWS SET AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF THE RECORDS.

BATON ROUGE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 44 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 45 WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2005.

GULFPORT...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 41 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 43 WHICH WAS SET AT THE AIRPORT IN 2005 AND AT THE GULFPORT NAVAL CENTER IN 1998.

SLIDELL AIRPORT...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 40 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42 WHICH WAS SET IN 2005.

SLIDELL CITY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 43 SET A NEW RECORD AT THE CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVATION SITE AT THE WASTE WATER TREATMENT PLANT IN THE CITY OF SLIDELL. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 44 WHICH WAS SET IN 2005.

MCCOMB...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 39 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 40 WHICH WAS SET IN 1984.

PASCAGOULA...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING OF 41 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 41 WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2005.

$$

And locally in my Bayou Cane neighborhood of deep SE LA, home thermo fell to 47.3F...

According to Wunderground's Houma records, KHUM airport's listed low of 44F broke the listed record 46F in 1959... However, does not count officially for several reasons -
* Houma KHUM is not NWS or FAA certified weather station...
* Prior to May 11 2010 AWOS upgrade to 24-hour capability, KHUM offered weather data during daytime operations only...
* KHUM continues to have reportage / frequent missing data issues...
* The KHUM thermometer reads only in whole degrees celsius, thus displayed
as 44.6F... should be rounded to 45F not 44F, but with a range jumping by
full 1.8F increments actual fahrenheit value unknown...
* Wunderground uses period of record beginning in 1930, while Houma's historical temp records date back to 1893 (and show a previous 45F on this date)...
* Wunderground, along with the NWS and other agencies have recently been comparing KHUM's questionable present-day data to older officially recognized data formerly provided by USDA station LA-164407 since 1893 (later re-established with LSU's HUML1 station within the USDA facility, closed on June 10 2011 due to LSU AgCenter budget cuts) - and leaving Houma-Thibodaux as the largest metro in Louisiana (5th largest) without a NWS recognized station, inaccurate "weather records" at best!

I would add "LOL" if the truth wasn't such a sad reality in this modern-day period of so-called better detailed, accurate record-keeping... Epic FAIL!
:(

Using the study of the human heart to compare to the science of climatology is outright silly.
Quoting jeffs713:

But our understanding of it has.

The climate changes, so does the atmosphere, and human culture. But more importantly, our understanding of the atmosphere, climate, human culture, and the human heart all changes constantly.


...and that's the point...as for natural observation: I've never seen gravity....yet I have a pretty good idea what it does...
Quoting presslord:


...and that's the point...as for natural observation: I've never seen gravity....yet I have a pretty good idea what it does...


You have seen gravity in action, just like you can not see wind... but you know its real due to natural observation of trees moving, flags waving.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You have seen gravity in action, just like you can not see wind... but you know its real due to natural observation of trees moving, flags waving.


absolutely correct...and I can make accurate inferences from that data...
Quoting presslord:


absolutely correct...and I can make accurate inferences from that data...


So what are we arguing? hahaha
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So what are we arguing? hahaha


I dunno...I thought you knew ;-)
CO2 in the Ice Core Record


One guy is blamed, an engineer, unreal

First criminal charges filed in BP oil spill
Quoting PedleyCA:


Don't you mean "course," as in journey, instead of "coarse," as a grade of something?
typed that in a hurry was in on lunch
now afternoon break started at 3 got 11 mins left
Quoting presslord:


I dunno...I thought you knew ;-)


It's finals crunch time, I feel like I don't know anything. At least that's how textbook review tests make me feel.
now iam gone be back at 5
Quoting RitaEvac:
One guy is blamed, an engineer, unreal

First criminal charges filed in BP oil spill

He is being cited for destroying evidence for the investigation - not for the spill itself.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is different because the human heart is not a complex ever changing object. The heart has been the same for 50 years, the climate has not.

The heart is not the same either. We can do things to and for your heart that were not possible 50 years ago. For instance, your heart may not actually be your original heart. At least you admit that the climate ain't what it used to be.

Penalty: 15 yards, piling on.
Quoting bappit:

The heart is not the same either. We can do things to and for your heart that were not possible 50 years ago. For instance, your heart may not actually be your original heart. At least you admit that the climate ain't what it used to be.


My argument was the actual heart itself has not changed. The things we can now do medically to fix and save the heart is astounding. I hope we get to the point where we understand the climate as well as we understand our hearts.
VAbeachhurricanes: No... It would be like saying a certain disease reacted to a drug one way 50 years ago and saying there is no way it has mutated and will react differently. We don't know it won't and the only way we will find out is through observation.

That's the whole point of the extreme unease caused by ClimateChange/GlobalWeirding:
We've mutated the environment so much so fast that many species can neither evolve nor migrate fast enough to survive.
We've changed the environment so much that we can no longer count on climate producing the same range of weather as that which produced and has thus far maintained human civilization. ie Civilization is HIGHLY dependent on agriculture. And agriculture is HIGHLY dependent on weather and weather extremes remaining within a usefully predictable narrow band of temperatures and precipitation, both in terms of timing and of duration.
eg Even 1or2degrees of GlobalWarming is likely to substantially increase heat waves that lead to low-yield and increasing price*volatility in agricultural commodities.

* How high or how low the price of any given commodity doesn't matter much. Businesses can adjust to any steady or near-steady price, including fluctuations predictably caused by changing seasons.
What they can't adjust to are wild unpredictably large swings in prices.
This Nor'Easter dumped almost two feet of snow in parts of Pennsylvania.

It was the worst April storm since 1928.
Interesting, it's hailing here... again!

Only pea-sized hail but...

I have lived here for 12 years and have seen hail 5 times in total. For the past 2 months, it has hailed 3 times!!

The other 2 times ocurred in separate summers. Yea, in the middle of the summer where thunderstorms are frequent and not in spring where it has never happened before this year.

This is just weird, can't get over it...
Interesting discussion:

The heart does change,if we smoke or eat poorly the heart stops functioning properly, which leads to other problems in your body,the climate is the same idea. You mistreat the climate it under goes changes and stops function normally and causes other problems thoughout the planet. Same idea.
If anyone is interested, some classes are starting this week at coursera.org. I signed up for a course on machine learning taught by Andrew Ng of Stanford University. I think all the classes starting this week are computer related. This is college level stuff.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Interesting discussion:

The heart does change,if we smoke or eat poorly the heart stops functioning properly, which leads to other problems in your body,the climate is the same idea. You mistreat the climate it under goes changes and stops function normally and causes other problems thoughout the planet. Same idea.

Exactly.

One of the arguments is "We don't have enough information to know what is -normal-". Well, by that argument, we should not do anything different for about 100, or even 1000 years.

The climate variations we are experiencing could be completely normal. They could also be completely abnormal and a result of there being massive amounts of solar energy being retained within the global ecosystem. Will we ever know 100% for sure? Probably not. But do we know with enough confidence that we are living unsustainably in order to do something? Absolutely.

For an analogy - assume you are trained in CPR. You're walking in the mall, when a man in front of you falls to the ground, gasping and clutching at his chest. He could be having a heart attack. He could be choking on a grape he was eating. He could also be playing a cruel joke. You don't wait until he can see his doctor for an angiogram to start CPR. You ask him if he is ok (that is really part of CPR training), and if he can't respond... you start CPR.

Should we wait for more data before trying to lessen our footprint on earth? Should we wait for oceans to rise 100 feet, swamping a huge amount of the coast? Or should we start researching and finding out as much as we can? Or should we take action now to lessen our footprint, while capturing as much information as possible?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


My argument was the actual heart itself has not changed.

I'm taking the viewpoint that the actual heart has in fact changed. I suppose that when looking at the heart abstractly you could say it has not changed, but then I could also say equally that climate has not changed either. The physical processes that affect climate are the same as before. So, if climate can be said to change, we are just observing it in a different circumstance: people dumping CO2 into the air in large amounts in a short amount of time. Similarly, we can observe the human heart in a different circumstance and observe that it, too, has changed. For instance, it now can control diet. It can also keep beating in situations where previously it long ago would have stopped.
Oh my Laaawwwwd, temps are outta control out there



According to HAMweather, much of the United States should be rounding out April with below, to well below, average temperatures.

Quoting NEwxguy:
Interesting discussion:

The heart does change,if we smoke or eat poorly the heart stops functioning properly, which leads to other problems in your body,the climate is the same idea. You mistreat the climate it under goes changes and stops function normally and causes other problems thoughout the planet. Same idea.

climate patterns are altered been so for awhile now only just becoming more altered and noticeable as time marches on
Quoting NEwxguy:
Interesting discussion:

The heart does change,if we smoke or eat poorly the heart stops functioning properly, which leads to other problems in your body,the climate is the same idea. You mistreat the climate it under goes changes and stops function normally and causes other problems thoughout the planet. Same idea.


I like that analogy! .... I would like to add that when the heart begins to perform poorly, then the other organs begin to suffer as well and begin to complicate the overall health problem. Just as with rising heat, from the increased atmospheric CO2, will begin breaking down the frozen tundras and releasing its stores of methane. Now the overall illness becomes more complex and more difficult to control.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to HAMweather, much of the United States should be rounding out April with below, to well below, average temperatures.


Yeah it looks like most of the country will be below average from the 27th to at least the 30th... April looks to be breaking the streak of really warm months
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah it looks like most of the country will be below average from the 27th to at least the 30th... April looks to be breaking the streak of really warm months
warm months o we still got the extreme heat yet to come
Quoting RitaEvac:
Oh my Laaawwwwd, temps are outta control out there



summer the season yet to come
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly.

One of the arguments is "We don't have enough information to know what is -normal-". Well, by that argument, we should not do anything different for about 100, or even 1000 years.

The climate variations we are experiencing could be completely normal. They could also be completely abnormal and a result of there being massive amounts of solar energy being retained within the global ecosystem. Will we ever know 100% for sure? Probably not. But do we know with enough confidence that we are living unsustainably in order to do something? Absolutely.

For an analogy - assume you are trained in CPR. You're walking in the mall, when a man in front of you falls to the ground, gasping and clutching at his chest. He could be having a heart attack. He could be choking on a grape he was eating. He could also be playing a cruel joke. You don't wait until he can see his doctor for an angiogram to start CPR. You ask him if he is ok (that is really part of CPR training), and if he can't respond... you start CPR.

Should we wait for more data before trying to lessen our footprint on earth? Should we wait for oceans to rise 100 feet, swamping a huge amount of the coast? Or should we start researching and finding out as much as we can? Or should we take action now to lessen our footprint, while capturing as much information as possible?


I never think it would be a bad idea to conserve what we have left of our planet. I just think it is a slippery slope to say that we 100% know what will occur if we do certain things. Back to heart analogy, we know that smoking has the same affect on the heart as it did 100 years ago, it is just the knowledge on the subject has exploded. However we don't know that certain things will affect the climate the same, the climate is a dynamic entity while the heart is a static one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to HAMweather, much of the United States should be rounding out April with below, to well below, average temperatures.

well we here around tampa bay are at zero, but i have to tell you, it was simply Beautiful here today...wish it would stay like this for a few weeks, but i know..the heat is returning
Quoting LargoFl:
well we here around tampa bay are at zero, but i have to tell you, it was simply Beautiful here today...wish it would stay like this for a few weeks, but i know..the heat is returning
by zero i mean we are at average, not under normal temps
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah it looks like most of the country will be below average from the 27th to at least the 30th... April looks to be breaking the streak of really warm months


Yeh,not record breaking warmth,but still going to be above normal,last below normal month for us was last June.
The Pentagon & Climate Change


89. LRC
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:Since we have been studying climate extensively for only about 50 years or so to be generous. I doubt, we as humans know much about the earths climate as a whole and how it works over long periods of times.

Humans have been studying weather and climate for thousands of years. The trouble has been that western science has not taken the time to listen to that knowledge.
A case in point was a scientist visiting the high plains of South America noticed farmers would on a specific day of the year look to the horizen at a specific time on night to see if a constellation was visible or not to determain exactly when to plant. He laughed at them. It wasafter years later and coming to understand the El Nino and La Nina effects that it came to him that indeed those illiterate farmers knew more then he did. That cycle determained when the rains came to that area and at the same time effected the visibility of that specific constellation at that specific day of the year. And the rains were very preditable.
If western man had taken time to listen to all those stories about weather and climate that different groups around the world has been pasted down generation after generation, most of which has been lost now, I believe we would have not only far better models of the weather, but have a far greater understanding about climate.
As far as where did all that heat go that has been predicted. I think we will all find out sooner then later. Nature has a very bad habit of covering things up until it is too late then things change very fast.
An example of that would be all those animals barried in ice with full stomach of healthy vegetation. Maybe the opposite can also happen and we only find out where that heat went when all the ice in the world disappears all at the same time. Unlikely but could be a possibility.
Records are made to be broken be broken be broken- bump- sorry i sounded like a broken record.
Despite it being late April, Severe Weather season is dead quiet. We'll have a few chances for isolated severe thunderstorms over the next two weeks, but nothing significant is going to occur through at least the beginning of May.

Weird....
it is what it is and what its going to become
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Despite it being late April, Severe Weather season is dead quiet. We'll have a few chances for isolated severe thunderstorms over the next two weeks, but nothing significant is going to occur through at least the beginning of May.

Weird....


So much for that worst severe season on record everyone was talking about after march 2nd
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So much for that worst severe season on record everyone was talking about after march 2nd
well it may just be late and when it does start it rides further north across a abnormal area lets say northern plains southern Prairies mid to lower lakes and ne
Despite the lull in activity right now, 2012 lies well above average and is still among the most active years we've seen this decade. In fact, a month ago, 2012 briefly attained record tornado activity with 319 preliminary tornado reports (filtered), breaking the previous record of 317 at the time.

"Sometimes it takes a major tragedy in order for us to learn from our mistakes"...For example Galveston TX 1900.
It should be so obvious, until you add a few right wing agendas to the mix. With unheard of blocking patterns, unreal measurable CO2 rises, dwindling water resources world wide, and the poles melting before our eyes; this has to be a leftist farce, signed RightWingAmerica. With China and India's carbon footprint on an unstoppable rise we are but at the tip of the iceberg; which is good, because that's all we're going to have left. I believe there will be a multiplying factor to this where what we believe now may have to be amplified greatly in the very near future. The powers that be are the ones that can enact real change, and they're doing everything in their power not to. Unless a devise is invented to remove an UnGodly amount of CO2 from our atmosphere we are already well beyond the point of no return. All of us with a stake in the future should be outraged.
Did anybody else notice this?

I mean, I know there are several different definitions, but that word isn't necessarily what pops into my head when I think of slow.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Did anybody else notice this?

I mean, I know there are several different definitions, but that word isn't necessarily what pops into my head when I think of slow.


Lol.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is what it is and what its going to become
What it is, what it was, and what it shall be....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Did anybody else notice this?



so?
T.A.wx13..Yes. The warm sector thunderstorms will have hurt feelings . ...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER SWRN MN
AND THIS SHOULD PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE OR SEVERELY RETARDED DURING THE PERIOD AS WLY FLOW LIMITS
DEEPER UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ASCENT NORTH-EAST OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SEWD ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SRN WI INTO IL/IND DURING THE DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS REGION WITH THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTING MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL
RETURN INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS TRUE
MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE LIMITED TO DEEP SOUTH TX ATTM. EVEN
SO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO SUGGEST TRANSITORY CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG CAP SHOULD BE NOTED.
The plan is to tap raw resources from asteroids that pass near Earth


Details have been emerging of the plan by billionaire entrepreneurs to mine asteroids for their resources.

The multi-million-dollar plan would use robotic spacecraft to squeeze chemical components of fuel and minerals such as platinum and gold out of the rocks.

The founders include film director and explorer James Cameron as well as Google's chief executive Larry Page and its executive chairman Eric Schmidt.

They even aim to create a fuel depot in space by 2020.

However, several scientists have responded with scepticism, calling the plan daring, difficult and highly expensive.

They struggle to see how it could be cost-effective, even with platinum and gold worth nearly £35 per gram ($1,600 an ounce). An upcoming Nasa mission to return just 60g (two ounces) of material from an asteroid to Earth will cost about $1bn.

The inaugural step, to be achieved in the next 18 to 24 months, would be launching the first in a series of private telescopes that would search for asteroid targets rich in resources. The intention will be to open deep-space exploration to private industry.
James Cameron Backers of the venture include James Cameron who recently dived to the deepest place on Earth

Within five to 10 years, however, the company expects to progress from selling observation platforms in orbit around Earth to prospecting services. It plans to tap some of the thousands of asteroids that pass relatively close to Earth and extract their raw materials.

The company, known as Planetary Resources, is also backed by space tourism pioneer Eric Anderson, X-Prize founder Peter Diamandis, Ross Perot Jr, son of the former US presidential candidate, and veteran astronaut Tom Jones.

The founders of the venture are to give further details in a press conference on Tuesday.
Long game

"We have a long view. We're not expecting this company to be an overnight financial home run. This is going to take time," Eric Anderson told the Reuters news agency.

The billionaires are hoping that the real financial returns, which are decades away, will come from mining asteroids for platinum group metals and rare minerals.

"If you look back historically at what has caused humanity to make its largest investments in exploration and in transportation, it has been going after resources, whether it's the Europeans going after the spice routes or the American settlers looking toward the west for gold, oil, timber or land," Mr Diamandis explained.

Water from asteroids could be broken down in space to liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen for rocket fuel. Water is very expensive to get off the ground so the plan is to take it from an asteroid to a spot in space where it can be converted into fuel.

From there, it could be shipped to Earth orbit for refueling commercial satellites or spacecraft.

"A depot within a decade seems incredible. I hope there will be someone to use it," Dr Andrew Cheng, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory told the Associated Press.

"And I have high hopes that commercial uses of space will become profitable beyond Earth orbit. Maybe the time has come."

Prof Jay Melosh from Purdue University said that the costs were just too high, calling space exploration "a sport that only wealthy nations, and those wishing to demonstrate their technical prowess, can afford to indulge."

Eric Anderson, who co-founded the space tourism firm Space Adventures, said he was used to sceptics.

"Before we started launching people into space as private citizens, people thought that was a pie-in-the-sky idea," He said.

"We're in this for decades. But it's not a charity. And we'll make money from the beginning."
Fire at Deepwater Horizon rig The disaster was the worst US offshore oil spill



The US justice department has filed the first criminal charges linked to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

A former BP engineer was arrested on charges of intentionally destroying evidence.

Kurt Mix of Katy, Texas, faces two counts of obstruction of justice.

He is accused of trying to delete text messages between himself and a supervisor, in October 2010, containing details about how attempts to cap the leaking well were going.

In a sworn affidavit, FBI special agent Barbara O'Donnell said Mr Mix had "deleted numerous electronic records relating to the Deepwater Horizon disaster response, including records concerning the amount of oil potentially flowing from the well, after being repeatedly informed of his obligation to maintain such records".

Mr Mix, 50, was involved in some of BP's attempts to cap the well, including the unsuccessful Top Kill efforts in May 2010.

Prosecutors say he deleted messages that indicated Top Kill was failing at a time when BP officials were saying publicly that it was broadly proceeding according to plan.

Mr Mix resigned from BP earlier in 2012.

In a statement, BP said it "had clear policies requiring preservation of evidence in this case and has undertaken substantial and ongoing efforts to preserve evidence".

The justice department said Mr Mix would make his first appearance in a Houston federal court later on Tuesday.

The Deepwater Horizon rig, which had been leased by BP, exploded on 20 April 2010, killing 11 workers and eventually spilling more than 200 million gallons of crude oil.
105. flsky
Quoting Xandra:
The Pentagon & Climate Change




Thank you for posting this.
106. VR46L
Thank you for the blog It made interesting reading ,from reading it I understand that there was as hot a temperature recorded in 1898.Now that is really interesting.
107. flsky
Quoting Xandra:
CO2 in the Ice Core Record




And thanks especially for this.
Quoting hydrus:
The plan is to tap raw resources from asteroids that pass near Earth


Details have been emerging of the plan by billionaire entrepreneurs to mine asteroids for their resources.

The multi-million-dollar plan would use robotic spacecraft to squeeze chemical components of fuel and minerals such as platinum and gold out of the rocks.

The founders include film director and explorer James Cameron as well as Google's chief executive Larry Page and its executive chairman Eric Schmidt.

They even aim to create a fuel depot in space by 2020.

However, several scientists have responded with scepticism, calling the plan daring, difficult and highly expensive.

They struggle to see how it could be cost-effective, even with platinum and gold worth nearly £35 per gram ($1,600 an ounce). An upcoming Nasa mission to return just 60g (two ounces) of material from an asteroid to Earth will cost about $1bn.

The inaugural step, to be achieved in the next 18 to 24 months, would be launching the first in a series of private telescopes that would search for asteroid targets rich in resources. The intention will be to open deep-space exploration to private industry.
James Cameron Backers of the venture include James Cameron who recently dived to the deepest place on Earth

Within five to 10 years, however, the company expects to progress from selling observation platforms in orbit around Earth to prospecting services. It plans to tap some of the thousands of asteroids that pass relatively close to Earth and extract their raw materials.

The company, known as Planetary Resources, is also backed by space tourism pioneer Eric Anderson, X-Prize founder Peter Diamandis, Ross Perot Jr, son of the former US presidential candidate, and veteran astronaut Tom Jones.

The founders of the venture are to give further details in a press conference on Tuesday.
Long game

"We have a long view. We're not expecting this company to be an overnight financial home run. This is going to take time," Eric Anderson told the Reuters news agency.

The billionaires are hoping that the real financial returns, which are decades away, will come from mining asteroids for platinum group metals and rare minerals.

"If you look back historically at what has caused humanity to make its largest investments in exploration and in transportation, it has been going after resources, whether it's the Europeans going after the spice routes or the American settlers looking toward the west for gold, oil, timber or land," Mr Diamandis explained.

Water from asteroids could be broken down in space to liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen for rocket fuel. Water is very expensive to get off the ground so the plan is to take it from an asteroid to a spot in space where it can be converted into fuel.

From there, it could be shipped to Earth orbit for refueling commercial satellites or spacecraft.

"A depot within a decade seems incredible. I hope there will be someone to use it," Dr Andrew Cheng, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory told the Associated Press.

"And I have high hopes that commercial uses of space will become profitable beyond Earth orbit. Maybe the time has come."

Prof Jay Melosh from Purdue University said that the costs were just too high, calling space exploration "a sport that only wealthy nations, and those wishing to demonstrate their technical prowess, can afford to indulge."

Eric Anderson, who co-founded the space tourism firm Space Adventures, said he was used to sceptics.

"Before we started launching people into space as private citizens, people thought that was a pie-in-the-sky idea," He said.

"We're in this for decades. But it's not a charity. And we'll make money from the beginning."
guess its not enough to pollute earth looks like space is next
wunder can ya drill for oil in space too hmmmm
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yeh,not record breaking warmth,but still going to be above normal,last below normal month for us was last June.
...and the last below average month for the planet as a whole was March of 1985.
111. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wunder can ya drill for oil in space too hmmmm


Funny you should mention that. I work for an oil service company and was contacted by Los Alamos several years ago. They were looking to purchase downhole motors to drill on Mars.

Edit, I have no idea as to whether they were drilling for oil or just plain drilling
Quoting VR46L:
Thank you for the blog It made interesting reading ,from reading it I understand that there was as hot a temperature recorded in 1898.Now that is really interesting.
You appear not to understand, but rather to misunderstand; Dr. Masters wrote that that reading was "... considered unreliable, since we don't know much about the exposure conditions or if the thermometers were even in shelters at remote California desert stations back in the 1880s and 1890s".
Quoting hydrus:
The plan is to tap raw resources from asteroids that pass near Earth


Details have been emerging of the plan by billionaire entrepreneurs to mine asteroids for their resources.

The multi-million-dollar plan would use robotic spacecraft to squeeze chemical components of fuel and minerals such as platinum and gold out of the rocks.

The founders include film director and explorer James Cameron as well as Google's chief executive Larry Page and its executive chairman Eric Schmidt.

They even aim to create a fuel depot in space by 2020.

However, several scientists have responded with scepticism, calling the plan daring, difficult and highly expensive.

They struggle to see how it could be cost-effective, even with platinum and gold worth nearly £35 per gram ($1,600 an ounce). An upcoming Nasa mission to return just 60g (two ounces) of material from an asteroid to Earth will cost about $1bn.

The inaugural step, to be achieved in the next 18 to 24 months, would be launching the first in a series of private telescopes that would search for asteroid targets rich in resources. The intention will be to open deep-space exploration to private industry.
James Cameron Backers of the venture include James Cameron who recently dived to the deepest place on Earth

Within five to 10 years, however, the company expects to progress from selling observation platforms in orbit around Earth to prospecting services. It plans to tap some of the thousands of asteroids that pass relatively close to Earth and extract their raw materials.

The company, known as Planetary Resources, is also backed by space tourism pioneer Eric Anderson, X-Prize founder Peter Diamandis, Ross Perot Jr, son of the former US presidential candidate, and veteran astronaut Tom Jones.

The founders of the venture are to give further details in a press conference on Tuesday.
Long game

"We have a long view. We're not expecting this company to be an overnight financial home run. This is going to take time," Eric Anderson told the Reuters news agency.

The billionaires are hoping that the real financial returns, which are decades away, will come from mining asteroids for platinum group metals and rare minerals.

"If you look back historically at what has caused humanity to make its largest investments in exploration and in transportation, it has been going after resources, whether it's the Europeans going after the spice routes or the American settlers looking toward the west for gold, oil, timber or land," Mr Diamandis explained.

Water from asteroids could be broken down in space to liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen for rocket fuel. Water is very expensive to get off the ground so the plan is to take it from an asteroid to a spot in space where it can be converted into fuel.

From there, it could be shipped to Earth orbit for refueling commercial satellites or spacecraft.

"A depot within a decade seems incredible. I hope there will be someone to use it," Dr Andrew Cheng, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory told the Associated Press.

"And I have high hopes that commercial uses of space will become profitable beyond Earth orbit. Maybe the time has come."

Prof Jay Melosh from Purdue University said that the costs were just too high, calling space exploration "a sport that only wealthy nations, and those wishing to demonstrate their technical prowess, can afford to indulge."

Eric Anderson, who co-founded the space tourism firm Space Adventures, said he was used to sceptics.

"Before we started launching people into space as private citizens, people thought that was a pie-in-the-sky idea," He said.

"We're in this for decades. But it's not a charity. And we'll make money from the beginning."





Sounds like a bad idea, apparently some people like science fiction better than real science. What they aren't thinking thoroughly is that it would cost more money to build and maintain a craft, fly up to the asteroid and back, than the profit from mining the asteroid.


The problem is with all the video games and movies about space travel and space flight, people get this idea that long distance space flight is easier than it is. It's exceedingly more expensive and dangerous in real science as apposed to science fiction.


Granted technology is advancing quickly, but even still, the obstacles ahead are still very great. Its more likely we will achieve A.I. and will have intelligent robots walking around and nano-bots that scrub peoples cells to keep them alive before we reach long distance space travel, and bases on other planets/systems.


Space is just not as easy as science fiction makes it sound, even with the rapid increase in technology today.


I believe 2 major inventions need to exist before long distance space travel and human contact on other planets: nuclear fusion and some sort of warp drive.

Quoting hydrus:
T.A.wx13..Yes. The warm sector thunderstorms will have hurt feelings . ...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER SWRN MN
AND THIS SHOULD PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE OR SEVERELY RETARDED DURING THE PERIOD AS WLY FLOW LIMITS
DEEPER UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS ASCENT NORTH-EAST OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SEWD ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SRN WI INTO IL/IND DURING THE DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS REGION WITH THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTING MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL
RETURN INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS TRUE
MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE LIMITED TO DEEP SOUTH TX ATTM. EVEN
SO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO SUGGEST TRANSITORY CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG CAP SHOULD BE NOTED.

Yeah I noticed it also... I mean I know what they meant and the word is used correctly and all but they really couldn't have found an alternative?
Quoting bayoubug:
Records are made to be broken be broken be broken- bump- sorry i sounded like a broken record.
If so, isn't it odd that the preponderance of the breaking is toward the warm side of things?

Warm
116. txjac
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, isn't it odd that the preponderance of the breaking is toward the warm side of things?

Warm


Neapolitan, not sure where you are getting your chart but I was wondering if you could take it back to show April 2011 to April 2012?
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, isn't it odd that the preponderance of the breaking is toward the warm side of things?

Warm

Even with the snow yesterday we still saw 337 record highs with only 9 record lows

Also 137 rainfall records which is very impressive.
Quoting Jedkins01:





Sounds like a bad idea, apparently some people like science fiction better than real science. What they aren't thinking thoroughly is that it would cost more money to build and maintain a craft, fly up to the asteroid and back, than the profit from mining the asteroid.


The problem is with all the video games and movies about space travel and space flight, people get this idea that long distance space flight is easier than it is. It's exceedingly more expensive and dangerous in real science as apposed to science fiction.


Granted technology is advancing quickly, but even still, the obstacles ahead are still very great. Its more likely we will achieve A.I. and will have intelligent robots walking around and nano-bots that scrub peoples cells to keep them alive before we reach long distance space travel, and bases on other planets/systems.


Space is just not as easy as science fiction makes it sound, even with the rapid increase in technology today.


I believe 2 major inventions need to exist before long distance space travel and human contact on other planets: nuclear fusion and some sort of warp drive.

Lol..I know, they cannot get the abundant natural resources here on Earth without making a mess, nevermind going into space and doing it. And your right space is extremely dangerous to humans and the equipment.
"We're in this for decades. But it's not a charity. And we'll make money from the beginning."

How do they make money from the beginning?
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..I know, they cannot get the abundant natural resources here on Earth without making a mess, nevermind going into space and doing it. And your right space is extremely dangerous to humans and the equipment.



Yep, I mean, just look who is involved, you know if James Cameron is involved it might be a bit of an issue. If billionaires think they can just start going on space adventures we are going to start hearing about wasted lives in space, lol. Seriously, some of these people still think Carbon emissions don't matter. I'm not trying to generalize but accurate science often isn't upheld in the world of the very rich. Many times for them they are used to fantasy living so they think in a fantasy way as well regarding science.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
guess its not enough to pollute earth looks like space is next
We already have. They use a special type of radar to keep the space station and satellites from getting slammed by space junk we have left up there from previous missions...We are on a roll...:)
Quoting flsky:

Thank you for posting this.

And thanks especially for this.

You're welcome. ;)
Quoting hydrus:
We already have. They use a special type of radar to keep the space station and satellites from getting slammed by space junk we have left up there from previous missions...We are on a roll...:)
we truly are a messy bunch
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yep, I mean, just look who is involved, you know if James Cameron is involved it might be a bit of an issue. If billionaires think they can just start going on space adventures we are going to start hearing about wasted lives in space, lol. Seriously, some of these people still think Carbon emissions don't matter. I'm not trying to generalize but accurate science often isn't upheld in the world of the very rich. Many times for them they are used to fantasy living so they think in a fantasy way as well regarding science.
I think its o.k. to use your imagination and be creative, but going into space to mine what would have to be a very lucrative product to be profitable even for ten billionaires sounds risky. Small missions can set a company back billions of dollars because of some tiny mistake..Precarious investment to say the least.
125. fuzed
Quoting bappit:
"We're in this for decades. But it's not a charity. And we'll make money from the beginning."

How do they make money from the beginning?



Earth observation.
And if they plan on using spacex's launching platform, or something similar, it might be far cheaper to get to space that in the past.

The mining part might be tough, but they talked about fuel depots. they mentioned the cost of hauling water up to ISS. If they hit a comet or one time of asteroid, they propose to probably extract water and either refine it for fuel (h) + O2.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we truly are a messy bunch
Yeah..I usta get creamed for leaving a dish in the sink..And what do they get..? ..nuthin.
98 TropicalAnalystwx13: Did anybody else notice this? I mean, I know there are several different definitions, but that word isn't necessarily what pops into my head when I think of slow.

Actually that's the meaning of 'retard'. Just because the socially maladjusted misuse the word as a derogatory judgement does not make the correct use of the word invalid.

114 MAweatherboy1:
Yeah I noticed it also... I mean I know what they meant and the word is used correctly and all but they really couldn't have found an alternative?


Bully boys also like to use 'slow' as a synonymous malediction. Should we quit using that word too?



Speaking of fiction, here it is as it's finest, make sure you're not drinking coffee or you might spray it out of your mouth from laughing too hard ;)
Quoting hydrus:
Low off the east coast of Florida in 144 hours..


That's all associated with our next cold front which just might give New England another Nor'easter by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week!

91L is history according to NOAA. Plus the MJO is expected to sink into the COD until at least May 5th. Thereafter, it will emerge up into quadrant 8 by the following week(6-12th). So I'll only give Orlando a 20% chance of rain on Sunday/40% on Monday of next week before clearing things out Tuesday onward with low humidity.
Quoting weatherbro:


That's all associated with our next cold front which just might give New England another Nor'easter by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week!

91L is history according to NOAA. Plus the MJO is expected to sink into the COD until at least May 5th. Thereafter, it will emerge up into quadrant 8 by the following week(6-12th). So I'll only give Orlando a 20% chance of rain on Sunday/40% on Monday of next week before clearing things out Tuesday onward with low humidity.
It will be interesting to see what happens with this moisture surge moving towards Florida from the Caribbean. You can see it on the 84 hour water vapor forecast model....Link
Quoting hydrus:
Yeah..I usta get creamed for leaving a dish in the sink..And what do they get..? ..nuthin.


might be time for a tune

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


might be time for a tune

Thank ye..Thats an easy one to learn too..D,A,G,D...D,A,G,D..over and over..:)
Quoting hydrus:
I think its o.k. to use your imagination and be creative, but going into space to mine what would have to be a very lucrative product to be profitable even for ten billionaires sounds risky. Small missions can set a company back billions of dollars because of some tiny mistake..Precarious investment to say the least.



Well that's my point, I find nothing wrong with creativity, but what's going on there is living the fantasy. Just as I enjoy seeing Batman, but that doesn't mean I will attempt to go out and actually be Batman, lol
I am bored of the weather this week.
So i guess it is back to the learning table.
How can you calculate the exact temperature and humidity etc necessary to break a cap given the cap strength and CAPE values.
This might be difficult since CAPE is related to temperaturea and humidity.
Maybe space exploration to make the rich richer is the perfect answer. Just send the entire 1%ers on a one way trip. "To the moon Batman!!!" Oh wait, they own everything and have all the power; but one can dream can't they?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Maybe space exploration to make the rich richer is the perfect answer. Just send the entire 1%ers on a one way trip. "To the moon Batman!!!" Oh wait, they own everything and have all the power; but one can dream can't they?
You are an idiot. Press ! and you're gone.

Edit: He is not stating his opinion he is trying to start an argument. Look at how long he has been on the blog. Most likely a troll.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am bored of the weather this week.
So i guess it is back to the learning table.
How can you calculate the exact temperature and humidity etc necessary to break a cap given the cap strength and CAPE values.
This might be difficult since CAPE is related to temperaturea and humidity.

It depends.

Most of the time the cap breaks due to extreme surface heating, strong boundaries/convergence, and upper forcing.
what's the saying about opinions?
It will be the 55th anniversary of the first space launch this october, meaning that it took private industries 55 years to even get to low earth orbit. It's fair to say that they wont get to an asteroid for many many years.

Besides, there is no space race to drive government exploration of space so minimal new space technologies are being developed in comparison to the 50s and 60s. Because of this it could take 70-100 years for private companies to reach the moon in the forms of them operating flights to and from the moon. I'm not saying there wont be business on a possible moon colony, but private spaceflights to the moon/asteroids are really far away.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You are an idiot. Press ! and you're gone.

That's a little harsh and uncalled for. Maybe instead of pressing the "!" on him for stating his opinion, I'll press the "!" on you for attacking a user for no apparent reason?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It depends.

Most of the time the cap breaks due to extreme surface heating, strong boundaries/convergence, and upper forcing.


But based on those factors, is there no way to calculate exactly what is needed?

And to respond to Tribucanes, i suppose you never want to be rich, right?
142. MTWX
Quoting hydrus:
We already have. They use a special type of radar to keep the space station and satellites from getting slammed by space junk we have left up there from previous missions...We are on a roll...:)


Forgot where I got this image in the past, but here is a copy.



This graphic depicts the trackable objects, satellites and space junk, in orbit around Earth. Amazing how much crap we have actually put out there!
Quoting yqt1001:
It will be the 55th anniversary of the first space launch this october, meaning that it took private industries 55 years to even get to low earth orbit. It's fair to say that they wont get to an asteroid for many many years.

Besides, there is no space race to drive government exploration of space so minimal new space technologies are being developed in comparison to the 50s and 60s. Because of this it could take 70-100 years for private companies to reach the moon in the forms of them operating flights to and from the moon. I'm not saying there wont be business on a possible moon colony, but private spaceflights to the moon/asteroids are really far away.


Why do you doubt this younger generation.
We can do it.
Quoting MTWX:


Forgot where I got this image in the past, but here is a copy.



This graphic depicts the trackable object, satellites and space junk, in orbit around Earth. Amazing how much crap we have actually put out there!

That's pretty sweet... And you're right, we've pretty much turned space into a waste dump.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


But based on those factors, is there no way to calculate exactly what is needed?

And to respond to Tribucanes, i suppose you never want to be rich, right?
Ok he is going against the rules himself for posting political garbage that is meant to set a wild fire. He has no reason to start this conversation. So yes he is stating his opinion but not for the right reasons or in the right place. Stay on topic. Rule number 2.

Edit: Quoted wrong comment.
Quoting MTWX:


Forgot where I got this image in the past, but here is a copy.



This graphic depicts the trackable object, satellites and space junk, in orbit around Earth. Amazing how much crap we have actually put out there!


Well, we have had 54+ years to litter it up. No Deposit, No Return.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why do you doubt this younger generation.
We can do it.


I never said that the governments wont do it, they will just like the race for the poles that is going on now, they will take any new frontier to make them more powerful, but you won't see Walmart (or Virgin Galactic more realistically) taking people to the moon anytime soon.

The second that China (or any nation) starts the first step towards building a space colony, the EU and US will immediately start their own plans. Trust me on this. :P
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


But based on those factors, is there no way to calculate exactly what is needed?

And to respond to Tribucanes, i suppose you never want to be rich, right?

No, because it varies with different system's, dates, and location.
We're desperate for hurricane season aren't we?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We're desperate for hurricane season aren't we?


Yeah. :/
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We're desperate for hurricane season aren't we?
Not to far away. June 1.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not to far away. June 1.


ill laugh so hard if the A storm is not till august
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ill laugh so hard if the A storm is not till august
I will be pulling my hair out.
so is the below normal tornado wise also a sign of global warming,same as the above normal global sea ice,or below normal global temps.Last year Alabama 242 tornado warnings in April this year 0.
lol I'm no right wing denier, just stating my opinion. Thought it was on topic enough for what was being discussed. Certainly no troll. Just in the last ten years alone the one percenters have massed 46 trillion in wealth while debt based economies head toward insolvency. With that kinda scratch figure they could make their own world on Mars many times over, and leave the world to those of us who care for it. Didn't think this would start some huge war of words, not my aim at all. And since less than 5 percent of people on here are climate change deniers didn't think that statement would cause much ruckus. Peace and free speech can go hand in hand, it's o.k to disagree.
Quoting help4u:
so is the below normal tornado wise also a sign of global warming,same as the above normal global sea ice,or below normal global temps.Last year Alabama 242 tornado warnings in April this year 0.

We're not seeing any tornado activity right now...that doesn't mean we're below normal. We're anything but that.
Record cold temp possible in the Keys tonight.

Link
Quoting Tribucanes:
lol I'm no right wing denier, just stating my opinion. Thought it was on topic enough for what was being discussed. Certainly no troll. Just in the last ten years alone the one percenters have massed 46 trillion in wealth while debt based economies head toward insolvency. With that kinda scratch figure they could make their own world on Mars many times over, and leave the world to those of us who care for it. Didn't think this would start some huge war of words, not my aim at all. And since less than 5 percent of people on here are climate change deniers didn't think that statement would cause much ruckus. Peace and free speech can go hand in hand, it's o.k to disagree.
Yes its ok for all of that just not here. The political stance for space exploration is unneeded and even on that subject very off-topic. I did over react and I am sorry about that but its still not ok to purposely try to include you political ideas into a space discussion. Your comment added nothing to the discussion and was off topic. Last I'll say about that.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I will be pulling my hair out.

I will be bleeding internally lol.
160. MTWX
Quoting help4u:
so is the below normal tornado wise also a sign of global warming,same as the above normal global sea ice,or below normal global temps.Last year Alabama 242 tornado warnings in April this year 0.


We are actually well above normal as far as tornado numbers this year. You can not use last years April numbers as the norm. That's like saying 2005 was a normal hurricane season, that all others should be compared to...
Good evening. All

April 24, sst anomaly
Quoting help4u:
so is the below normal tornado wise also a sign of global warming,same as the above normal global sea ice,or below normal global temps.Last year Alabama 242 tornado warnings in April this year 0.

a- As has already been stated, we aren't below average for tornadoes
b- Not to sound rude, but learn to read a graph... We do not have above normal sea ice

c. I really shouldn't even adress this but lets just say global temps aren't going down any
d. How are tornado warnings in Alabama in April at all relevant to global warming? Also many of last year's warnings there occured during a super outbreak (1 in 50 year or so event) so 2011 is a totally unfair analogue year.
163. MTWX
Where we stand as of April 14th...



Note: sorry it is so small the larger version is HERE, but it was too large to post on the blog.
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening. All

April 24, sst anomaly
Hi Nigel!
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.
Tonight's updated SOI reflects an uptick that started three days ago when it was at 8.0. Let's see if there is a sustained drop or to the upside to see if El Nino comes or not.

167. MTWX
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.


Same way a square house has a window on every side that faces South... ;)
The weather channel made their hurricane season forcast
11storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes
Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.

Well duh! He obviously owns 2 houses 10 miles apart!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Well duh! He obviously owns 2 houses 10 miles apart!
Hahaha no.
Quoting MTWX:


Same way a square house has a window on every side that faces South... ;)
I love these types of questions.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.
Is it because he didn't start from his house?
Quoting kipperedherring:
Hi Nigel!

How are you?
I have a theory about hurricane season that I came up with after a good bit of thinking.

My thought is that this season will have a early and quick start, with possibly two or three systems by July. This is because of the warm SSTs and the leftover Nina pattern, with slightly less shear and less east coast troughs to weaken and recurve systems.

Then, the season becomes about average from July to September with 5-6 more systems, including the two majors I think we will have this year due to average conditions.

Afterwards, as the Nino kicks in in September, there will be a somewhat abrupt end to hurricane season with maybe 2-3 more weaker systems in September and October. My updated prediction is 11-5-2, most of the stronger systems over by the middle of September.
175. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Well duh! He obviously owns 2 houses 10 miles apart!


Wow... Just .. Wow....
i really hope we dont get el nino i had season where we get 12 or less tropical storms. hopefully we get neutral and im still calling for a warm neutral despite 45% of models going el nino but 55% do have neutral so we will see my numbers are 13 7 and 4
Quoting kipperedherring:
Is it because he didn't start from his house?
It's one of those questions that will be like "Well I know that" sort of things but no.
Quoting nigel20:

How are you?
I'm good, hope you are too. What do you think of the Weather Channels hurricane prediction?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tonight's updated SOI reflects an uptick that started three days ago when it was at 8.0. Let's see if there is a sustained drop or to the upside to see if El Nino comes or not.


Whats up Twpr...have you seen TWC hurricane season forcast?
They are calling for 11/6/2
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.


Did he walk in a straight line?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It's one of those questions that will be like "Well I know that" sort of things but no.

Ooh I have a better answer... I give up if this isn't right: He lives in the world's biggest house and has two front doors 10 miles apart! Genious!
182. MTWX
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Did he walk in a straight line?


Of course not! He made a triangle! LOL!!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.


Does this fellow have a white beard?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.

Do we ever get the answer to this?
Quoting MTWX:


Of course not! He made a triangle! LOL!!


No, like were the 10 miles in each direction in a completely straight line? Or did he bear off course any because the roads weren't straight?
186. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Do we ever get the answer to this?


There are a few responses that should help you out....
Quoting kipperedherring:
I'm good, hope you are too. What do you think of the Weather Channels hurricane prediction?

Yes i'm good...i think their forecast is based on prediction conditions during the hurricane season, they also stated that their forecast is subjected to change...if ENSO and SST anomalies changes
188. MTWX
Quoting WxGeekVA:


No, like were the 10 miles in each direction in a completely straight line? Or did he bear off course any because the roads weren't straight?

Due South, Due West, Due North. No roads...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Does this fellow have a white beard?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Ooh I have a better answer... I give up if this isn't right: He lives in the world's biggest house and has two front doors 10 miles apart! Genious!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


No, like were the 10 miles in each direction in a completely straight line? Or did he bear off course any because the roads weren't straight?
Sure why not.

Nope :D.

Nope.

You guys are gona be mad when I tell you. I'll give u guys 10 more min.
Quoting MTWX:


There are a few responses that should help you out....

I googled it... that's probably considered cheating though
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Sure why not.

Nope :D.

Nope.

You guys are gona be mad when I tell you. I'll give u guys 10 more min.


OHHHHHHHH I THINK I GOT IT NOW!!!!

Is his house at a certain place on the planet?
Hint: Think about the earth.
193. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I googled it... that's probably considered cheating though


Yes that is cheating!

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Sure why not.

Nope :D.

Nope.

You guys are gona be mad when I tell you. I'll give u guys 10 more min.

Some of us already got it, but it is fun watching others squirm!
Was he on a treadmill?
I'm sure the answer is astonishing simple, looking forward to it
Quoting MTWX:


Yes that is cheating!


Some of us already got it, but it is fun watching others squirm!
It really is. I have a bowl of popcorn right now.
Quoting Tribucanes:
I'm sure the answer is astonishing simple, looking forward to it
Loads of fun to figure out and watch people try desperately to figure it out.
198. MTWX
Work isn't going to do itself!! Be back in a few!!
I will take a weather change please, 90 today and in 90s Wed and Thursday, no rain in 36 days, seems the drought has returned to South Central Texas and I am hating it. We average 5 inches of rain in May and I hope we get it.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Was he on a treadmill?
Well actually that is very good answer but no.
Get your Watch People Squirm with solving Non-Euclidean Geometry Popcorn Here!!!

Ok gentlemen. Time to make you feel rather stupid or smart.
The house is located at the north or south pole.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ok gentlemen. Time to make you feel rather stupid or smart.
The house is located at the north or south pole.


How do you walk south from the south pole?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ok gentlemen. Time to make you feel rather stupid or smart.
The house is located at the north or south pole.

I liked my answers better :)

Night all
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


How do you walk south from the south pole?
Well....ummmm....damn.
lol was on the tip of my tongue, promise :)
Quoting Tribucanes:
lol was on the tip of my tongue, promise :)
Yah my first guess was that he was on a moon with a 10 mile diameter.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ok gentlemen. Time to make you feel rather stupid or smart.
The house is located at the north or south pole.


Considering the north pole is ice? I guess south

I feel dumb
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I liked my answers better :)

Night all

Night MAwb1
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012


PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-04 1-042-251200-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0012.120425T0400Z-120425T1200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLE ARFIELD...
PHILIPSBURG...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET...BE DFORD...
MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...TROUT RUN...LAPORTE
700 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...29 TO 32.

* TIMING...3 AM TO 8 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL OR
GARDENING INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.

&&

$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012


PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-04 1-042-251200-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0012.120425T0400Z-120425T1200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLE ARFIELD...
PHILIPSBURG...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET...BE DFORD...
MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...TROUT RUN...LAPORTE
700 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...29 TO 32.

* TIMING...3 AM TO 8 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL OR
GARDENING INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.

&&

$$
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Get your Watch People Squirm with solving Non-Euclidean Geometry Popcorn Here!!!



I'll save it for Hurricane season.
Troll spray! Get your troll spray here! Free for a limited time only.



Somebody giving us something to play with. Cool.....

Hey Nigel....
..does anybody remember laughter?..

Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

WP972012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Troll spray! Get your troll spray here! Free for a limited time only.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Troll spray! Get your troll spray here! Free for a limited time only.

Am I missing something?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Somebody giving us something to play with. Cool.....

Hey Nigel....

whats up pedley?
Quoting nigel20:

whats up pedley?


Just kicking back waiting for something to happen.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Just kicking back waiting for something to happen.

I see that we may get a western pacific storm
207 hurricanehunter27: Yah my first guess was that he was on a moon with a 10 mile diameter.

That's no moon...
Quoting nigel20:

I see that we may get a western pacific storm


Yes, we need something for amusement.
Quoting aspectre:
207 hurricanehunter27: Yah my first guess was that he was on a moon with a 10 mile diameter.

That's no moon...

How are you aspectre?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yes, we need something for amusement.

Agreed...have you seen TWC predictions for the hurricane season?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.



Sounds more like a path to integrate along using line integration techniques to me.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Sounds more like a path to integrate along using line integration techniques to me.
You know spheres are really magical objects.
Quoting nigel20:

Agreed...have you seen TWC predictions for the hurricane season?


I saw the ones they mentioned earlier. I am thinking 12/6/2 for Atlantic
and 16/10/6 for EPAC
Pretty simple riddle, the house is on the north pole. That way, regardless of where you are on the planet, when you walk toward your house you are always heading due north. Also when you walk due east or west, your distance from the poles remains the same.
Quoting PedleyCA:


I saw the ones they mentioned earlier. I am thinking 12/6/2 for Atlantic
and 16/10/6 for EPAC

Reasonable numbers for the atlantic if we get an el nino, but I think we would also have more storms in the pacific
Quoting nigel20:

Reasonable numbers for the atlantic if we get an el nino, but I think we would also have more storms in the pacific


Yup, that one is probably under. These are my first attempts at a prediction.
Hurricane Wilma..luckily it didn't meander around like Mitch did in that area
Quoting pipelines:
Pretty simple riddle, the house is on the north pole. That way, regardless of where you are on the planet, when you walk toward your house you are always heading due north. Also when you walk due east or west, your distance from the poles remains the same.
Nice try! Only reason you knew that was cause I told everyone ;).
Night everyone. Leaving for Kenya this weekend can't wait!
Quoting nigel20:
Hurricane Wilma..luckily it didn't meander around like Mitch did in that area


What storm is that on your Avatar?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yup, that one is probably under. These are my first attempts at a prediction.

If el nino is non-existent or occurs late in the hurricane season, then those numbers for the pacific maybe spot on
checking out the mighty furnace looks like things on the upswing
Quoting PedleyCA:


What storm is that on your Avatar?

That's hurricane Ivan
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You know spheres are really magical objects.


Says who?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What's up Keeper...can you share the link to these images?


*2 Years Later* Professor: Microbes in Gulf attacking things other than oil? Very large increase in crab and lobster with appendages falling off — High incidence of eyeless shrimp… More (VIDEO)

Published: April 23rd, 2012

Title: Gulf Oil Spill: BP Execs Escape Punishment as Fallout from Disaster Continues to Impact Sea Life
Source: Democracy Now
Date: Apr. 23, 2012


AMY GOODMAN: [...] The impact of the disaster continues to unfold for the area’s residents and wildlife. Scientists say shrimp, fish and crabs in the Gulf of Mexico have been deformed by chemicals released during the spill. One commercial fisherperson told Al Jazeera that half of shrimp caught during the last white shrimp season were eyeless.

SCOTT EUSTIS: We have some evidence of deformed shrimp, which is another developmental impact, so that shrimp’s grandmother was exposed to oil while the mother was developing, but it’s the grandchild of the shrimp that was exposed grows up with no eyes.

[...]

DAHR JAMAIL: We have recently come across very, very disturbing information from Gulf region scientists. You know, the first person I came across was Dr. Jim Cowan with Louisiana State University, and he’s been working on a project, getting his funding from the state of Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. And he’s been, actually, for many decades, sampling red snapper, which is a very popular fish in the industry. And he’s been finding that before the BP disaster in April 2010, that of all the red snapper he was sampling, he was finding point-one-tenth [0.1] of 1 percent snapper coming up with lesions and other types of problems. Post-spill, that has gone to between 2 and 5 percent of all samples. That means an increase of between 2,000 and 5,000 percent, and in some areas as much as 20 percent [a 20,000% increase], he said, in other areas who have extreme impact, where the oil and dispersants came in nearby the shore, of as many as 50 percent [a 50,000% increase] of fish sampled. Very, very disturbing information there.

And then, another doctor that I spoke with, Dr. Darryl Felder with University of Louisiana-Lafayette, he also has before-and-after samples. He was working out around the Macondo wellhead area on the sea floor with a grant from the National Science Foundation, that they wanted him to investigate just overall drilling impact on species in the area. And so, he had deep sea crab, deep sea lobster, deep sea shrimp, from before the spill, and then many, many sampling trips after the spill. And what he found was obviously a very, very large increase of finding crab and lobster, etc., that had black gills, that had appendages falling off, again similar stains on their shells, and again similar to findings not too different from Dr. Jim Cowan’s, in that when the oil, that much unnatural oil introduced into the environment, coupled with the dispersants, that it’s causing these lesions that are burrowing into the carapace and the shells and eating into the wax of the shells, causing an increase in the microbes that do eat oil. Not only are they not eating just oil, but eating into the shells, and then parasites and diseases and other illnesses are being formed.

And then, lastly and I think most disturbingly, as you already touched upon, the eyeless shrimp. We’re seeing very, very large incidence of eyeless shrimp now popping up not just in Louisiana, but in Alabama and Mississippi, not just inshore, but further far ashore—offshore. And some of the shrimp that we’re seeing, they came from a shrimper in Louisiana that was caught—caught 400 pounds of white shrimp in one catch in last September, just off the outskirts of Barataria Bay. And that was—of the 400 pounds of shrimp, the shrimpers told us that all of them were eyeless. So, very, very disturbing findings. And unfortunately, we’re expecting more to continue.

[...]

[BP claims administrator Ken] Feinberg is on his way out, because so many people across the region are incensed at the way he’s handled most of the claims. [...]

I talked to Ryan Lambert, who heads one of the largest charter fishing businesses in the entire Southeast, and he said, “Hey, we’re going to court. They have destroyed my business. It’s not coming back. I haven’t seen one single speckled trout in three months. It’s the first time I’ve ever experienced that in my life. That’s 90 percent of the fish that we catch. So of course I’m going to go to court, because what they offered me, frankly, was insulting.”

http://www.democracynow.org/2012/4/23/gulf_oil_sp ill_bp_execs_escape
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A fellow took a morning stroll. He first walked 10 mi South, then 10 mi West, and then 10 mi North. It so happened that he found himself back at his house door. How can this be?

Little math problem my teacher gave us. The answer is rather simple. Have fun and don't cheat.


I do not if this has been answered yet, but his house is at the North Pole.


nice shot of the south the deep south
OK, Good Night All. U.S. West Coast Out for the night Stay Safe....
Quoting PedleyCA:
OK, Good Night All. U.S. West Coast Out for the night Stay Safe....

good night pedley
Good night all
iam out later
259. OCF
Did he walk in a straight line? No, he didn't, but there's no such thing as a straight line on the surface of the earth. The closest thing to a "straight line" on the surface of the earth is a great circle, but in most cases, your heading changes as you travel along a great circle. The north and south legs of the path are great circles, but the west leg is not, not if it stays west as a heading.

There are two solutions, or rather two families of solutions. One has the house at the north pole, in which case "south" is at first a completely arbitrary direction. The other solution has the house at a distance of 10+5/π miles away from the south pole. In that case, the westward leg traces out a small circle all the way around the pole.

Back to the subject of Dr. Masters' post: it may be hot in Death Valley and Las Vegas, but it's not hot at all on the Southern California coast, which really isn't very far away. Not only that, it's rained recently, and it may rain again in the next day or two - that's really getting quite late in the year to have any rain at all. Almost all of the rain on the coast comes from cold-core extratropical systems, and it's pretty hard to get such a system to have any punch this far south this late in the spring.
Miracles of technology that threaten the earth and her inhabitants, aren't the ideas of someone who cares for us.

Rather, they are the short sighted imaginations of a terror far greater than any religion could conceive.
Good morning folks, cool but nice here this morning, not a cloud in the sky, hope everyone has a great day.........................
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jax/graphicast/i mage1.jpg
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
408 AM EDT WED APR 25 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-252200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
408 AM EDT WED APR 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING LOW
RH VALUES ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT MARTIN
AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. ACROSS THESE COUNTIES...THE SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH INLAND EARLIER AND LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MOSES
Time to start looking at the Bahamas for possible TS formation over the coming days as a trough of low pressure is forecast to develope and the GFS even developes a weak low and drifts it toward FL next week. Whether something developes or not is irrelevant as Cuba, Bahamas, Hispaniola, and maybe S FL are in for a deluge. This is some extreme rainfall forecast forecast for these areas.

12 Day 0Z GFS precip Accum.


On this date last year, a four-day tornado onslaught across the Southern states began.







At day 10 a weak low is organizing east of FL moving WNW.

This Day 3:



Is a lot better than this Day 3, don't you think?



It is going to be a rough week ahead for Hispaniola. The only thing one can do is hope for this best as a devastating flood situation is setting up here.


By definition, a straight line follows the geodesic.
On the surface of a sphere:
The geodesic is the Great Circle.
Any two points on the exact opposite sides from each other have an infinite number of straight lines connecting those points.
Less than opposite, two points have two straight lines connecting to each other; the shortest possible route, and the long route.

On a spinning sphere:
Looking down toward the north pole means that the viewer is seeing the sphere spin counterclockwise.
Eastward is counterclockwise, westward is clockwise.
The only geodesic on a spinning sphere that runs west-to-east is the equator.
In order to travel straight southward for a given distance then travel straight westward for the same given distance, the equator must be located that same given distance from the poles.
If that given distance is eg 10miles, the sphere's circumference must be 40miles.

One can travel constantly eg westward on a line of constant curvature by following any line of latitude... but constantly westward isn't straight westward except at the equator.
As you can see we are dealing with a very mountianous terrain and a terrain in many cases has been deforested so heavy rain of this magnitude will cause severe flooding especially along the mountian sides.

Morning all.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Time to start looking at the Bahamas for possible TS formation over the coming days as a trough of low pressure is forecast to develope and the GFS even developes a weak low and drifts it toward FL next week. Whether something developes or not is irrelevant as Cuba, Bahamas, Hispaniola, and maybe S FL are in for a deluge. This is some extreme rainfall forecast forecast for these areas.

12 Day 0Z GFS precip Accum.


I think this is supposed to be the retrogressing trough / front system that came through FL this past weekend. Our mets were forecasting that it would begin to do that starting tomorrow.

Maybe that front was the beginning of the rainy season after all....

Referencing also post 271, showing current conditions.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

I think this is supposed to be the retrogressing trough / front system that came through FL this past weekend. Our mets were forecasting that it would begin to do that starting tomorrow.

Maybe that front was the beginning of the rainy season after all....


It's looking that way but here in C FL it may be awhile before this rain heads our way as this trough appears it wants to head toward the general area of the NW Bahamas and sit for awhile. That's why whether this becomes Alberto or not is irrelevant as Gale force conditions and heavy squally rains are on tap for all the Bahama islands over the coming days.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
At day 10 a weak low is organizing east of FL moving WNW.



Looks like the GFS has delayed it's arrival to the following weekend (5th-6th) which is good news for me(I'm on vacation).
Quoting weatherbro:


Looks like the GFS has delayed it's arrival to the following weekend (5th-6th) which is good news for me(I'm on vacation).


Yeah it appears it is going to be messy for S FL & the Bahamas for many days to come. Looks like this trough is going retrograde toward the NW Bahamas then stop and sit for awhile.
If this trend continues with the MJO then May maybe active for Tropical Systems (When I say active I mean 1 to 2 named systems) across the Caribbean. We are already beginning to see signs that the Caribbean is going to get active by looking at the long range models even the short range models are trying to get things going around the Bahamas in 7 to 10 days.

People in FL are probably rejoicing looking at this!


Quoting MAweatherboy1:




Please hold true to form....please.  
Well here begins another warm spell, and if you remember, the last warm spell ended in the March 2 tornado outbreak.

Also, NWS Birmingham is having a webinar about the April 27 tornadoes for all who are interested:
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This Day 3:



Is a lot better than this Day 3, don't you think?





no ;)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this trend continues with the MJO then May maybe active for Tropical Systems (When I say active I mean 1 to 2 named systems) across the Caribbean. We are already beginning to see signs that the Caribbean is going to get active by looking at the long range models even the short range models are trying to get things going around the Bahamas in 7 to 10 days.



ECMF has been the closest lately on the 2 week mojo forecast:




It has neutral for the next 2 weeks:

Wow ! I am amazed with this site, with this blog and with everything alltogether. Although I am not a meteorologist, I am a cuban american who's nick in Spanish means tail wind and upon retirement in Miami, Florida, decided to come live down in South America, specifically Bogota, Colombia, I was missing since 2007 for Colombia and for me down here a " Weather Channel " like it is known in the States until now that I discovered this page and you guys in this of a kind, superb, unique and delirious site. A lot of rain down here now in Colombia (of course the tropic) ! What is this? El Niño !? La Niña !? or what the heck !?

Regards !
Very quiet recently with earthquakes recently, none over a 6.0 in a week!!!



287. MahFL
Quoting jeffs713:

...we are harming the Earth,...


We are changing, not harming, remember at one time the North Pole was subtropical, last time I checked Polar Bears still live at the North Pole, in the wild.