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Dean intensifying, near Category 5 strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:33 PM GMT on August 20, 2007

Hurricane Dean is intensifying. The latest Hurricane Hunter data and satellite intensity estimates both show an intensifying storm, and the 3:54pm EDT eye report showed a 6 mb pressure drop in less than two hours, which is a big fall. The pressure now stands at 918 mb, which is the lowest pressure Dean has attained thus far. The storm is over waters with very high heat content, and is under light wind shear, so continued intensification is probable. Landfall is expected near Chetumal, Mexico, just after midnight local time. Dean will be a tremendously destructive storm for southern Mexico. Dean is powerful enough to be able to survive the crossing of the Yucatan as a hurricane, and hurricane advisories have been posted for cities on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only hurricanes on record that survived crossing this portion of the Yucatan and maintaining hurricane intensity were Hurricane Roxanne of 1995, which hit just south of Cozumel as a Category 3, and emerged near Campeche as a Category 1; and Hurricane Janet of 1955, which hit near Chetumal as a Category 5 storm, then weakened to a Category 2 storm when it popped out into the Gulf of Mexico south of Campeche. We can expect Dean will carve out a path of great destruction all the way across the Yucatan Peninsula, then potentially re-intensify before hitting Mexico again along the Gulf Coast in the Bay of Campeche.

Jamaica and Haiti
News is still slow to emerge from Jamaica due to blocked roads and lack of electrical power. It does appear that the north coast, including Montego Bay, did not suffer extensive damage. News reports now indicate four people died on Haiti, and 150 homes were destroyed.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Dean.

Links to follow today:
GOES rapid scan satellite loop
Radar from Cancun, Mexico.
Chetumal, Mexico observations.
Cozumel, Mexico observations.
Belize City observations.
Campeche, Mexico observations.
Morphed microwave animation.

Disturbance 92L needs to be watched
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 92L", has changed little in organization today. Wind shear is about 5-10 knots in this region, and an upper-level anticyclone has formed over 92L. This is a very favorable environment for intensification, should 92L start to get organized. The disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. It is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and will be near the central Bahamas by Wednesday, and the east coast of Florida by Friday. It does not appear that any troughs strong enough to recurve 92L will swing by until Saturday at the earliest.

Tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave approaching the southern and central Lesser Antilles islands will bring showers and gusty winds to the islands Tuesday. Wind shear has dropped to 5-10 knots over the wave, and there is some potential for it to develop as it moves west to west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea.

I'll have a full update Tuesday morning at about 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters
Rough seas after near miss with Dean
Rough seas after near miss with Dean
This was taken on the Western tip of Jamaica.
Backyard 2
Backyard 2
Pictures from my Backyard... the gusts got quite strong a certain points.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Xion
for those who say dean is STILL a cat 4 .. reload the wunder tropical page.. dean IS a cat 5

Wow. You're being stubborn.

It IS a Cat 4.

156 is the minimum for a Cat 5 and the NHC still calls it a Cat 4.
Now that we know where Dean is headed, can we move on to where 92L might be going?
H Dean

Posted By: madmattforhurricanes at 12:02 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

for those who say dean is STILL a cat 4 .. reload the wunder tropical page.. dean IS a cat 5


NHC says it is a four. But i guarentee they will make it a 5 at 11pm because it only needs one more mph wind, and because they dont want to be wrong lol
Well, NaturalDisaster, it wasn't my idea! LOL! ;~)

Actually, to sober down a moment...
If I were sitting on the Yucatan right now
I'd be thinking that the lot of us were just sitting here splitting hairs.
Won't save a house or a loved one.

It's a big mean ol' storm,
and there are people in harm's way.

That sort of makes me wish they'd gone ahead with Cat 5 entirely,
to motivate people into shelters as needed
and to get better emergency funds as possible.

Love to all in harm's way. ♥
guy's you guys are forgetting decimals. 155.1 mph is called a Cat5- since everybody calls a Cat 4 'til 155.0 mph.
the hurricane chart SHOULD read:

156+

not 155+
Not to be smug or anything, but HELLO!!! It IS hurricane season and any low that has a slight chance of developing and heading you way, you should be concerned about. I live on the MS Gulf Coast and I'm getting prepared just in case...

It's great that you are prepared, as everybody should be starting in June. But, for 92L, I think Florida (specifically South and Central) should be concerned the most with this and should be prepared just in case...the GOM, on the other, hand still has a looonnggg time to watch this and could easily not even make it to the GOM...IMO. The Bahamas and even South Florida should be monitering this situation very carefully, as this could become a TD or a TS in the next day or two and head in that direction.
Not to bring up ancient history, but the BAMD had the track nailed at the 18Z update on Aug 17 with a movement just south of Jamaica and landfall as proposed now around Mahahual. Last month at the Chacchoben ruins, the guide pointed out damage to the structures from Gilbert - about 25 miles inland. The Cat's Meow is going to get hammered - hope they went waaaaay inland.
92l looks horrible...we'll see what it looks like in the am
YOU GUYS DEAN IS NOT A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IT IS STILL A CAT. 4
Based on the last vortex, I can't understand why its not a 160 mph cane. They must know something about Deans internal dynamics.
since Chantal, every invest has been under a TCFA/
if the one behind 92l forms thats flaring up now could it take the same track thats showing for 92l also
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
If you want to split hairs .4 and lower is rounded down.
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 12:06 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

since Chantal, every invest has been under a TCFA/


and every invest after chantal has developed except one (99L)
519. Xion
XION-- post analysis is too late... once someone wins or looses $$, theres no refund. LOL

Bettingzone is a good place to start.
Dont bet on mexico getting hit now.. you'd prob win like $0.50.. lol! odds are gone

NOW if you bet on texas getting hit... and it really does.. thats a couple thousand $$$ you can win.


You should try your luck at blackjack next time.

LOL

There's still the 11 PM advisory and I am sure the NHC cannot resist the urge to be correct with their forecast.
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt ); it is 135 kt. Also it's 155 mph.
Dont worry everyone, Dean will be a cat 5 at 11pm
I AM concerned about what comes next,
such as 92L potentially.
but at the moment I am most concerned about who comes next.

And that's the people of the Yucatan.

Posted By: extreme236 at 8:07 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

Posted By: Bobbyweather at 12:06 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

since Chantal, every invest has been under a TCFA/

and every invest after chantal has developed except one (99L)


99L did have a TCFA.
I know, i am just saying that out of all those TCFA 99L was the only one to not develop, now we have to see if 92L will develop
ok guess i was wrong... trying tolearn too here not need to jump on me.. i was just interpreting what i saw .. thats all...thankyou for natural disaster for explanation.. xion........=[
Yeah splitting hairs over speed might be fun for a blog, but the people that going face Dean probably won't care unless it significantly increases or decreases in intensity. Obviously, they would prefer the latter.
Posted By: extreme236 at 12:07 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Dont worry everyone, Dean will be a cat 5 at 11pm

Sure looks like that has happened lol
92L IF it does develop florida is the prime target...
quickscat image here
2 hours and we get the new models runs on 92L.
I'm not worried that it won't be a 5 at 11pm.
I'm worried that it WILL be a 5 at 11pm.

Let's keep our eye on the aftermath.

I think I need to take a break from hair-splitting and hair-raising for a bit. ;~)

BBL Take care, all! ♥
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 12:12 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

quickscat image here


From this morning....
Link on Hurricane Dean: HURRICANE DEAN'S NEW ARTICLE
We were talking about the data transmission problem earlier. I'm hoping the problem was with the tranmission itself and not with the data collection. That way the information is still available for analysis upon return to base (and of course for post-season.)

I dunno about this storm. I'm not sure if that was just the eye contracting or the storm as a while tightening up, but it seems to be going through yet another change.
Did any see that show on Discovery about wind speed and strength ... the reporter could barely stand in the 70 MPH winds ... imagine what anything above that must be like :c(
537. H2PV
Hurricanes are rated based on pressure. Winds are guessed at based on pressure. There's nobody down there measuring the winds, and lots of anemometers blow away at less than 135 mph.

Pressure rules. Anyway, winds are only at their peak in a very narrow band of the eyewall and taper off quickly from there. When they say "hurricane force winds extend in a radius of ___ knots, they mean that it ranges from peak down to 64 knots in that zone, and most of it is closer to 64 than it is to 135 knots. The windspeed varies drastically in the four quadrants.

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
Posted By: weatherblog at 12:05 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
It's great that you are prepared, as everybody should be starting in June. But, for 92L, I think Florida (specifically South and Central) should be concerned the most with this and should be prepared just in case...the GOM, on the other, hand still has a looonnggg time to watch this and could easily not even make it to the GOM...IMO. The Bahamas and even South Florida should be monitering this situation very carefully, as this could become a TD or a TS in the next day or two and head in that direction.


Weatherblog-thank you for not making me feel like an idiot! We have our plan in place, I was just wondering what you experts thought about 92L. I've been in the eye of three and it's no fun!
Dean is the strongest storm since Wilma.
540. Xion
ok guess i was wrong... trying tolearn too here not need to jump on me.. i was just interpreting what i saw .. thats all...thankyou for natural disaster for explanation.. xion........=[

Sorry to sound too mean :(, but when you jump the gun and start telling people that they ARE wrong when they are clearly right, it can come off badly.

Don't want to scare you away though...
;)
I'm taking a break, people. I'll probably be back about 10:30 so I can see what the storm is looking like then and whether they do upgrade. Meanwhile, have fun. Don't encourage 92L too much . . . LOL
A cool link that shows an animation of Dean from birth to now:

Animation
If Dean is not classed a cat5 tonite, I think when the NHC reviews it after season I think they will find it did indeed reach cat5 status
544. Xion
Dean is the strongest storm since Wilma.

Yeah.........in the Atlantic.
I think the reported windspeeds are rounded to the nearest 5 mph so anything 152.5 to 157.49 mph would be reported as 155 mph. Since a Cat 5 indicates wind speeds an excess of 155, a wind speed reported as 155 doesn't tell us the category. Pressure isn't the definitive indicator either since if the pressure rapidly drops sometimes the wind speeds lag a category behind.
Posted By: weatherblog at 12:05 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

It's great that you are prepared, as everybody should be starting in June. But, for 92L, I think Florida (specifically South and Central) should be concerned the most with this and should be prepared just in case...the GOM, on the other, hand still has a looonnggg time to watch this and could easily not even make it to the GOM...IMO. The Bahamas and even South Florida should be monitering this situation very carefully, as this could become a TD or a TS in the next day or two and head in that direction.


How could it NOT get in the GOM?
Posted By: Fshhead at 12:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

If Dean is not classed a cat5 tonite, I think when the NHC reviews it after season I think they will find it did indeed reach cat5 status


Oh, he will be a category five tonight. the nhc wont want to be wrong over a difference of 1mph and the fact is that dean is still strenghtening
hello all from australia how are you all
IF 92l were to form, what would that mean for Tampa?
550. Xion
Hurricanes are rated based on pressure. Winds are guessed at based on pressure. There's nobody down there measuring the winds, and lots of anemometers blow away at less than 135 mph.


They do have anemometers on board though, from my understanding.

Someone even said that they have optic anemometers.

How else would they measure gusts of over 200 mph and such in these storms at flight level.
Posted By: aussiegreg at 12:17 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

hello all from australia how are you all


Im good, how about you?
552. H2PV
Posted By: Xion at 12:04 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
156 is the minimum for a Cat 5 and the NHC still calls it a Cat 4.


NHC only updates every three hours. Wunderground with access to the same data set is not required to wait for 3 hour schedules to update. NHC can update between the 3-hour schedule but rarely does. 155 or 156 mph is not enough difference to post a special bulletin.
Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 12:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
IF 92l were to form, what would that mean for Tampa?


Tampa would get wet.
Cancun resort cam

cancunwc
Posted By: sceerdycat at 12:19 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 12:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
IF 92l were to form, what would that mean for Tampa?

Tampa would get wet.


LOL i figured that much lol. but would that pretty much be it?
Drakeon, do we not have a new QuickSat yet?
There's too much emphasis on categories--Katrina had *weakened* when she hit--and look what happened to the MS coast! Factors like the MS gulf coastline that encourages higher surge has just as significant of an effect. You also have to consider the possibility of mudslides, etc. Many factors go into the amount of damage and loss of life--not just an impressive category number.
558. Xion
Amazing how this blog dies down when Dean isn't a Cat 5.
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 12:21 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Drakeon, do we not have a new QuickSat yet?


Yea. the low resolution QuickSat shows nothing. Waiting to see if the Hi-res does....
sceeredy i have to disagree..You cant say that if 92L developed that tampa would only get wet...you dont know how strong 92L would get IF it DEVELOPED....it could become a twin of Dean.
Also, Karina underwent rapid decrease in strength but carried a Cat4-5 storm surge with it since the intensity of her dropped before the surge could respond.
A Cat 5 would have helped more to get out of the way. Look at the USA, some die hards would stay for a 3 or 4, but you say 5 and they are leaving! 5's are just something that makes old timers move. Just my opinion. Still worried about the "F" word.
Hey little Tampa here also
Just to add...

8.016N, 39.267W had a 6.6 earthquake at 6:42pm ET
567. 606
There is a cloud mass just west of the lesser Antilles. I have heard no reports on this can someone help me out.What is going on?
could someone post a link to cancun radar?thanks BTW a few days ago I predicted a Belize landfall,while many had it comming to my area.Check the records.Not bad for a rookie.JUST KiDDING.Beginner's luck
NOW NOW Press a little dramatic dont you think
hey patchmedic! where about? i'm in TNC
Posted By: listenerVT at 12:25 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Just to add...

8.016N, 39.267W had a 6.6 earthquake at 6:42pm ET


Where is that at?
573. H2PV
Posted By: Xion at 12:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
Hurricanes are rated based on pressure. Winds are guessed at based on pressure. There's nobody down there measuring the winds, and lots of anemometers blow away at less than 135 mph.


They do have anemometers on board though, from my understanding.

Someone even said that they have optic anemometers.

How else would they measure gusts of over 200 mph and such in these storms at flight level.


They measure FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS, not surface winds. They are prohibited from flying low and lower winds are determined by rules translating flight-level to surface, and by dropped instruments (dropsondes) which radio back data during their short and hectic life. Since the sondes are in the winds they can't accurately measure the winds. PRESSURE RULES!
NOTSTLN ~

I'm taking a break from all the frenzy
to finish work on a grandbaby quilt
because the due date was yesterday!

And birthing times are even more unpredictable than storm landfalls times! LOL!
listener, getting closer to the end of the Mayan calender, 2012. Head for the hills... :)
Brandon area
I think alot of us spent so much time watching and analyzing Dean because it could have real impact on our lives. Now that it settled in on Mexico, it's time to take a break. But some of us just can't stay away for a rare storm no matter where it goes.
Oh the hills are volcanoes...:(
evening all from grand cayman, thoughts and prayers with everyone in belize still getting high winds on gcm very surprised curfew lifted as early as it was
went out 3 hrs after curfew lifted and road sign flew across the road in front of me waves still crashing across the road in GT
we have been very lucky here

Latest QuikScat
Link
well i know i kinda asked a dumb question before but what I meant (which no one knows yet) was do i have to like bust out the plywood on this one? Too soon to tell yet I know.
Where is the (potential) COC for 92L? The models seem to have initialized pretty far north from where most of the convection is... any opinions?
584. Xion
A Cat 5 would have helped more to get out of the way. Look at the USA, some die hards would stay for a 3 or 4, but you say 5 and they are leaving! 5's are just something that makes old timers move.

I 100% agree with you. When you say 160+ mph winds, people think buildings being blown away rather than hair blowing in the wind.

Hell, I might stay for a Category 4 storm (in a very strong shelter), but to stay for a Category 5, I'd have to have an armory building built like a freaking tank and two month's worth of supplies...and be away from the water.

Just my opinion. Still worried about the "F" word.

Florida????
Latest QuikScat for 92L
Link
the fun will really start if 92l does develope during the dmax and the one behind it becomes 93l stay tuned they will only have one way to go you know where that is
Why do I get the impression from some people on the blog that if you are from Florida you either are or have some type of social disease that makes people not from Florida feel the need to attack instantly?
Would it be LIKLEY for the center of 92L to form closer to the convection?
Hey there... 92L... Im thinking at worst maybe a TS before a Florida landfall. Any other ideas? It just seems me that it wont have enough time to get its act together. Especially since its so disorganized right now.
8.016N, 39.267W is in the Central Atlantic Divide
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 12:32 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Would it be LIKLEY for the center of 92L to form closer to the convection?


or the other way around lol. convection may develop over the center during dmax
593. Xion
They measure FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS, not surface winds. They are prohibited from flying low and lower winds are determined by rules translating flight-level to surface, and by dropped instruments (dropsondes) which radio back data during their short and hectic life. Since the sondes are in the winds they can't accurately measure the winds. PRESSURE RULES!

I AM talking about FLIGHT-LEVEL winds!!!

I know they based the surface wind estimates on the flight-level winds.

But to measure those flight-level winds, don't they have anemometers onboard?
Cane, I thought I could make out a COC a few hundred miles NE of PR using ramsdis visual earlier. It will be nearly impossible to see it well without visual.
The NHC has a pretty wide swath where this could develop. So in other words; nobody should expect this to be classified any time soon (and by "any time soon" I mean tonight or tommorow. Wednesday is a better bet IMO).

123marine
or the other way around lol. convection may develop over the center during dmax

Got it!! LOL
Can someone send me the ImageShack link for reszing & posting images..
I agree that the category lines are somewhat arbitary. The simplistic gist is according to kinetic energy power increases in proportion to the square of the wind speed. So a 104 mph hurricane is about twice as powerful as a 74 mph hurricane. A 148 mph hurricane is about twice as powerful as a 104 mph hurricane. A 155 mph hurricane is about 10% more powerful than a 148 mph hurricane.
Thanks Ixon, somebody agrees somewhere! LOL

"F" word-- Floyd, Fran, forgot the other one. They like to find the mouth of the Cape Fear River down in Wilmington, N.C. and go up the river. I hope Felix turns out to be nothing. And I hope people were worried enough to get out of Dean's way. I would be heading for the hill's if something like that came toward me.
For 92L, they may be developing the LLC that far north based on the amount of shear there is. What you see from the sat is the tops of the clouds that get blown miles and miles away by the shear. Granted, the distance I'm noticing is a bit greater than that, but, given the youth of the system, the surface LPC could be a distance away from the peak convection at this point.

I don't have a detailed pressure or wind field map of the area to tell more.
Hello everyone! I haven't been able to pull up any models lately...has Dean made any northward movements?? Thanks for any info!
Just asking - don't these invests/depressions have a tendency to attempt a few COC's before they pick their favorite? Neither QS or infared confirm that the model initialization is where the center could be... it just seems like it was the middle of the 'blob.'
604. sigh
Statement as of 8:35 PM AST on August 20, 2007
Data from the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft currently
investigating Hurricane Dean indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to 160 mph...making Dean a potentially catastrophic
category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Little dont jump the gun yet keep plywood tucked away for right now just continue to monitor

000
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
607. ebzz
They just announced 160mph winds on TWC.
000
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z

Definatly a cat 5
Dean officially a Cat5 from the NHC. Winds 160 mph
It's time to go buy a lottery ticket and earmark it for relief efforts in the Yucitan. They will need help after this one...
check this out. wow:

000
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z

Cane, yes, sometimes they do. Like all (at least most) natural things, it goes for the path of least resistance.
and dean's pressure is now down to 914mb, tying dean as the 10th strongest storm on record tied with Janet. Dean could still strengthen further perhaps
A five it is...
Say hello to Cat 5 Dean.
i hope the people in the Yucatan are prepared for a cat 5.... its just too hard to comprehend the kind of damage this monster could do.... Pray for an EWRC or something.
Well you guys got your Cat 5. Congrats!
619. Xion
Congrats NOTSTLN!!!

You're slightly richer.

But I feel extremely bad for the people in Mexico, I just hope they had the possibility to evacuate.
Posted By: SouthDadeFish at 12:40 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

i hope the people in the Yucatan are prepared for a cat 5.... its just too hard to comprehend the kind of damage this monster could do.... Pray for an EWRC or something.


Unfortunatly EWRC's havent weakened Dean much in the past, and it will make landfall in about 6-8hrs
Posted By: sturmvogel at 12:37 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

It's time to go buy a lottery ticket and earmark it for relief efforts in the Yucitan. They will need help after this one...



If thats a winner....dont think so....everyone to his own...!

If you can call that congradulations.....
msnbc Dean cat 5
Thanks WXwonderer - guess we'll where 92 is in the AM. Dean earned his 5... he's been building slow and steady for a good while.
Whats the odds on the next one becoming Cat 3?
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
XION-- thankyou!! LMAO.....
BC-APNewsAlert,0027
MIAMI (AP) -- The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dean has been upgraded to a catgeory 5 storm.
(Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
APTV 08-20-07 2038EDT
10 north is looking better might be 93l soon
ugg..how many more posts reporting Dean as a cat5?
First of let me say ive been reading but never bother to post but looking at dean hes become the worst of the worst scenarios the yucantan can face I really hope these guys will be ok when he hits them.
Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
1 Wilma 2005 882 mbar (hPa)
2 Gilbert 1988 888 mbar (hPa)
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
4 Rita 2005 895 mbar (hPa)
5 Allen 1980 899 mbar (hPa)
6 Katrina 2005 902 mbar (hPa)
7 Camille 1969 905 mbar (hPa)
Mitch 1998 905 mbar (hPa)
9 Ivan 2004 910 mbar (hPa)
10 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)



thats from wikipedia. Dean needs to drop 4 more millibars to tie Ivan.... People are going to be talking about Dean for the rest of their lives.
CNN just announced Dean is a cat5 and at 160 mph.

I am new here and want to follow more weather happenings.

Your posts are very interesting.
yep, so dean is tied with janet
Not going much out on limb but have not heard this as name of Dean Yucatan landfall. Heard here first. Majahual
XION-- 92L should be on the betting site. dont know... looks like crap...but again...thats how you win big.. lol


This season is check so far:
cat5... check
FL landfall... possiblitly

For those of you looking for an easy to understand explanation about hurricane wobbles, check out this TWC blog for today:

Link

And, no, I do not work for TWC nor anyone I know. I make use of good information regardless of source. Well - most of the time regardless.

639. H2PV
Posted By: SouthDadeFish at 12:45 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

9 Ivan 2004 910 mbar (hPa)
10 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)


thats from wikipedia. Dean needs to drop 4 more millibars to tie Ivan.... People are going to be talking about Dean for the rest of their lives.


For some people talking about Dean, the rest of their lives is 8 to 10 more hours.

Hello all. Some heavy rains and localised flooding here today at 11 n 61 w. Some nasty looking weather to the east as well, should affect us Tuesday. The season is upon us.
Things look gruesom for the Peninsula and then Mexico. Bad stuff..........
642. IKE
Belize forecast for tonight....

Monday Night
Thunderstorm. Low: 71 F. Wind WNW 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%.

Might want to adjust those winds up just a touch.

Hope those folks have found a secure place to be in.
Would 162 knot flight level winds translate into about 140 knot surface winds? Also just want to point out that Dean unfortunately, still has a few more hours to intensify before making landfall...
its all gonna blow away gonna strip the yucatan clean
But to measure those flight-level winds, don't they have anemometers onboard?

While I don't have authoritative info on their equipment; the simplest way for an airplane to measure winds comes simply from the fact they are flying in them: take the airspeed (corrected for pressure, etc.) and *heading* to get the velocity vector of the plane in the air. Then, you get the true velocity vector (speed and *bearing*)from the INS/GPS. The difference is the wind vector (speed and direction). The difference between heading and bearing is the "crab angle," very important when you are trying to land.
I reckon Dean will be retired after tonight.
It really is too bad there isn't a CAT 6 designation. I mean, it would be humorous to be on here for the next 6 hours before landfall hearing the weather junkies on here predicting another cycle of rapid deepening and a CAT 6 on the way.

(And, yes, I know that a CAT 6 would be something insane like 180 or 185+ mph winds and that the thermodynamics begin to break down for something like that to even happen, I'm just picking at all the CAT 5 predictors from the last few days that have been chomping at the bit for this monster to get its CAT 5 and start climbing the records charts)
quick question
how to the lows or invest get their number.

I mean we had a 99L then a
91L and 92L
162kt does translate to 140kt at the surface... but remember, that was recorded in the NW quadrant. The NE quadrant is the strongest, so its quite possible that Dean is not only still growing... but that the strongest winds still haven't been sampled.
650. Xion
Can high-rise buildings collapse in high enough Cat 5 winds?
Yeah what SEMI said
APALERTANOTICIOSO
ALERTA NOTICIOSO DE AP
MIAMI (AP) - Centro Nacional de Huracanes dice que huracn Dean alcanza categora 5.
http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?storm=4&year=2007

Dean's plot history
oh my

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 28
Time: 2324Z
Latitude: 18.4N
Longitude: 84.7W
#NAME?
Surface: 933 mb; Temp: 78F; Dewpt: 78F; ENE (60) @ 131 mph
1000mb height: Unavailable
925mb height: 240 ft; Temp: 77F; Dewpt: 77F; ENE (70) @ 152 mph
850mb height: 2674 ft; Temp: 71F; Dewpt: 71F; ESE (105) @ 180 mph
700mb height: 11450 ft; Temp: 55F; Dewpt: 55F; N (885) @ 175 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 045 SPL 1841N08483W 2310 MBL WND 08653 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 10152 932815 WL150 06629 081 =

933mb winds: ENE (60) @ 131 mph
912mb winds: E (80) @ 188 mph
898mb winds: E (80) @ 192 mph
893mb winds: E (90) @ 192 mph
886mb winds: E (95) @ 183 mph
878mb winds: E (100) @ 187 mph
860mb winds: E (100) @ 177 mph
850mb winds: ESE (105) @ 180 mph
697mb winds: SE (140) @ 179 mph
#VALUE!

656. Xion
It really is too bad there isn't a CAT 6 designation. I mean, it would be humorous to be on here for the next 6 hours before landfall hearing the weather junkies on here predicting another cycle of rapid deepening and a CAT 6 on the way.(And, yes, I know that a CAT 6 would be something insane like 180 or 185+ mph winds and that the thermodynamics begin to break down for something like that to even happen, I'm just picking at all the CAT 5 predictors from the last few days that have been chomping at the bit for this monster to get its CAT 5 and start climbing the records charts)

People love record-breaking, I don't know why. Same with me. Whether it is coldest temperature on Earth or highest recorded windspeed.

The problem is that some of those records come at the cost of lives.
When Janet levelled Chetumel, Mexico in 1955 as a Category 5 hurricane, the city only had about 5,000 people.

Today, the population is around 130,000.

I sincerely hope the Mexican government has done all it can to prepare its citizens for Dean, becuase he looks like he will take the same course through the city that Janet took and will be as strong and maybe stronger.
Skye, are the 912 millibar winds seem a more reasonable surface estimate than the 933 "surface winds?" I hope not....
High rise buildings fall during many major hurricanes... from storm surge. Wind can destroy but seldom topple a modern high rise building.
I know seems kind of silly to only name invest for atlantic 90L through 99L than start over.
Posted By: fire635 at 8:32 PM EDT on August 20, 2007. Hey there... 92L... Im thinking at worst maybe a TS before a Florida landfall. Any other ideas? It just seems me that it wont have enough time to get its act together. Especially since its so disorganized right now.
In 2005 TD#12 formed over the Bahamas on Aug.23. On Aug. 25th it made it's first landfall in Florida as Hurricane Katrina (Cat-1) From TD to hurricane in 2 days. Gotta keep an eye out just in case...waters around here are warm & shear is reasonably low. Breeding grounds for anything tropical right now. IMHO
NaturalDisaster: Saint Petersburg here...which is in tampa basically..And i be one to watch 92L because if it does develop theres no telling on how strong it would get....Boy would i hate to see a monster like Dean com towards us....


Hard to compare this cloud to Dean when it isn't even close to being called Felix yet. Give it a break dude. Most large scale models dropped this in the last run and the ones that haven't, now shifted it farther north. If anything, the cloud will go to GA or NC, not SW FL.
Posted By: NOTSTLN at 8:49 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

Adios Amigos...(no pun intended..!!) bbl


I don't think that word means what you think it means. No offense, perhaps?
Good Gosh Batman! We have got to rescue those people from the Yucatan from this cat 5 monster!
665. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:53 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
Ike I have been hearing that they are still trying to evacuate Belize City, there are no shelters there


Ugh...I would have been long gone.....somehow, someway, if I had to thumb a ride.
Yes, it is sad what will happen to the people and the landscape there. I've been to Costa Maya, the cruise port, and it is truly a wild and beautiful area of the coast. It looks like what Florida must have looked like prior to the invasion of concrete buildings. I'll see if I can dig out a picture.
Thank you guys and gals for your info. I have been monitoring your posts and using the info from here, models and NHC in my decision making for possible evac of my personnel on my jobsite. Does anyone see a potential for a northward jog during or after crossing the Yucitan?
Puttintang3,

You;ve answered your own question. The invests are numbered from 90 - 99 and the L designation is the basin, for Atlantic. Once 99 is used it cycles back to 90.
Why do the models on 92L show the track dipping?
670. amd
this storm is going to be historic, for all of the wrong reasons.

I'm not the most religious person around, but I will be definitely praying for those in the Yucatan tonight.
Right now Dean is far more important than a invest. Now, that invest will become more important if it develops but right now, a ton of people's lives are at risk by a 160mph cat 5 and strengthening
Category 6 designation would not be relevant. The Saffir-Simpson scale is meant to measure damage. Once a storm has reached the level necessary to cause truly catastrophic damage, further measurement is not necessary. Gone is gone. It's like hospital conditions: fair, serious, critical, dead. Dead is dead.
Posted By: Dakster at 12:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Puttintang3,

You;ve answered your own question. The invests are numbered from 91 - 99 and the L designation is the basin, for Atlantic. Once 99 is used it cycles back to 91.


actually its 90-99 not 91-99
track mark
10,40
933mb lets ya know the snode didn't land anywhere near center since the center is 914mb. When that snode was at 912mb it hadn't quite hit ground yet.
very glad that Jamaica,Haiti and Caymans got spared the worst of Dean, but very concerned and sad for those in the Yucatan who are in the path of mean Dean.

Buy a lottery ticket, say a prayer, make a donation to a relief agency or local institution ... each can help in his or her own way. Mexico, Belize, Jamaica, etc. will definitely need help.
Posted By: IRememberIvan at 12:52 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

162kt does translate to 140kt at the surface... but remember, that was recorded in the NW quadrant. The NE quadrant is the strongest, so its quite possible that Dean is not only still growing... but that the strongest winds still haven't been sampled.


Yes thats an excellent point. I didn't notice the winds were from the NW quadrant. Perhaps they will find stronger winds in the NE quadrant. I would hate to see how strong they would be though....
I corrected the post... It was an error...

Thanks...
680. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:55 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
Right now Dean is far more important than a invest. Now, that invest will become more important if it develops but right now, a ton of people's lives are at risk by a 160mph cat 5 and strengthening


Problem is...there's nothing you can do about it, but hope and pray for those folks. Some one will feel the eye of Dean..it's a certainty.
681. AndyN
If Dean were to re emerge in the Pacific(if and only if) would he go through a name change? Has this ever happened before?
Looks like the storm has peaked, but hard to tell, may have a few more mb left...
Why do the models on 92L show the track dipping?

Must be showing it feeling the influence of the imperveous high building in.
well they will be going to the NE quadrant soon, so perhaps they could find even higher winds in the next pass.
For record keeping purposes should change how invest named. I'm a programmer and for query or database key reasons this starting over in same year does not fly.
This is what a Cat 5 can do.

at 9 pm, it's a Cat 5...maybe doing hourly updates?
I believe I heard that if it keeps TS strength that it WOULD keep its name. This is different than before, but I would look it up. Don't take my word for it. It used to change.
Dean won't make it to the Pacific side. The Sierra Madres will tear it apart.
Omg TWC just mention Armageddon in their forcast for Yucatan...
691. AndyN
OK, Thanks!!!
Posted By: SouthDadeFish at 1:00 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Yes thats an excellent point. I didn't notice the winds were from the NW quadrant. Perhaps they will find stronger winds in the NE quadrant. I would hate to see how strong they would be though....

-- It's almost guaranteed that they would. It's morbid I know, but I want to see exactly how strong this bad boy is.
Tharsheblu-that's the richelieu apartments from Camille. I live about a mile from there. After Camille a Winn Dixie was placed there. Its a slab thanks to Katrina
Posted By: fldoughboy at 1:02 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

at 9 pm, it's a Cat 5...maybe doing hourly updates?


Maybe if it keeps strengthening, then yes
The latest models show Dean passing over Mexico City, which sits in an ancient lakebed in between mountainous terrain. According to Google, the city has drainage problems. I wonder if urban flooding may end up being the legacy of Dean.
Havent had time for computer today. Has ninety two had a formation alert all day?
the northwest quadrant is the "right front quadrant" so that is the strongest part of the storm, it is moving west not north
Posted By: leftovers at 1:05 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Havent had time for computer today. Has ninety two had a formation alert all day?


Yes
Most modern high rise buildings are built to a standard that can handle wind loads that would represent a ten minute average of 180 to 200 mph winds hitting the face that would present the largest drag amount to the wind. Remember, buildings flex quite a bit more than you'd normally imagine, which allows them to better handle the higher wind loads without breaking.

Older buildings of the earlier high rise generations had overbuilt cores and were rigid structures, but were rarely high enough that collective wind load represented a shear load that was great enough to threaten their overall structural integrity.
700. AndyN
That is what I figured....But Erin just won't go away and remember when Ivan decided to come around for just one more pass....and he had to cross some mountains
Got some photos of Jamaica. How do I upload?
BTW electricity has been restored in several sections of Kingston (I view with jealousy from my home in the hills above)

Did anyone give the formula for increase in wind speed with altitude that I had requested earlier? My cell phone battery died and I didn't see the response.
Posted By: tharsheblow
This is what a Cat 5 can do.


Tharsheblow - where is the picture from?
winds are now 160 mph with are hurricane this here it on TWC its now a cat 5
thank you dakster
Has anyone thought of the fact that Dean will be making landfall very near the time of the Diurnal Max?
well it looks like dean will have two advisories left before landfall
708. PBG00
Most large scale models dropped this in the last run and the ones that haven't, now shifted it farther north. If anything, the cloud will go to GA or NC, not SW FL.

Not really..as of 8:00 alot of the models still have it, and with that high in place, nothing is going to go north.
Buildings may be one thing, but whole tankers are quite another. I grew up catching jelly fish in the hull of a tanker embedded in the sand by Camille.
nickmini It's usually 10 or 15%
cat 5 cat 5 cat 5 it did it it did it wow wow ow it did it cat 5 cat 5 it did it it did it cat 5 cat 5 1st in 2 years wow it did it
712. Xion
at 9 pm, it's a Cat 5...maybe doing hourly updates?

Just a special advisory.

They issue those when major changes or Cats occur.
Yes Taz we all know and have known for about the last 45 minutes.
That blob in the west central atlantic looks a lot better than our invest.
Posted By: tharsheblow
This is what a Cat 5 can do.

Tharsheblow - where is the picture from?


It's a famous image from Camille. I agree with KennerLA70065's building assessment. Keep in mind wind speeds are quite a bit higher at the top of the high-rise than at the surface. I'm not sure what surface winds of 160 mph would translate to, possibly the sustained 180+
716. H2PV
Posted By: AndyN at 1:06 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
That is what I figured....But Erin just won't go away and remember when Ivan decided to come around for just one more pass....and he had to cross some mountains


Ahh, brings back memories of skiing the snowcapped Florida Mountains with Hurricane Ivan crossing on snowshoes. That was a sight I'll never forget.



could someone please take off the italics...PLEASE???
Dean is a name that gets retired, yes?
10 or 15% per what skyepony?
720. H2PV
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:09 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
cat 5 cat 5 cat 5 it did it it did it wow wow ow it did it cat 5 cat 5 it did it it did it cat 5 cat 5 1st in 2 years wow it did it


Duhhh. Sepat was category 5 hurricane 4 days ago, remember?


721. Xion
It's a famous image from Camille. I agree with KennerLA70065's building assessment. Keep in mind wind speeds will quite a bit higher and the top of the high-rise than at the surface. I'm not sure what surface winds of 160 mph would translate to, possibly 180+

Let us not forget gusts.

With wind speeds at 160 mph, gusts can be over 200 mph.

The mind cannot fathom such wind speeds.
dean could still get stronger, unfortunatly
723. Xion
Duhhh. Sepat was category 5 hurricane 4 days ago, remember?

Oh, be nice. He's talking about the Atlantic of course.
coriolis if Dean kills 10,000 in the Yucatan like Mitch then yes it will be retired. It gets retired based on the amount of destruction it has done, which is not much as yet
Is Erin, by any chance, reforming and tracking toward Florida?
http://www.belizeweb.com/lovefm.htm

Belize radio
Let us pause for a moment and reflect on cat 5.

Storm surge 10 feet above the roof of an average house. Roofs deposited 100 yards from their origin. Ancient trees uprooted. Landslides with villages submerged under 20-50 ft of mud.

No drinkable water for weeks.
No power for weeks.
No food for weeks.
Horrid stench of death that smells like zoo, but a hundred times worse. Never sleeping, but looking out for looters.

"You loot...we eat" -- written in spray paint on a house in S. Florida after Andrew.

Never wish.
729. Xion
coriolis if Dean kills 10,000 in the Yucatan like Mitch then yes it will be retired. It gets retired based on the amount of destruction it has done, which is not much as yet

What are the reports in Jamica. nickmini.

How did the southern coast fare? I have only heard of 2 reported deaths, is that true?

And glad to see you are okay. :)
well storms get retired based upon damage, but i would image a cat 5 would get retired whether or not it did a "bunch" of dmg or not
Skyepony, any info on the system at 10 n and East of Trinidad would be appreciated. Press. ? Outlook ? Direction ?
Thanks.........
Posted By: BeenThereinMiami at 12:48 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
For those of you looking for an easy to understand explanation about hurricane wobbles, check out this TWC blog for today:


...nice informative post, BTiM.
Posted By: presslord at 1:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Is Erin, by any chance, reforming and tracking toward Florida?


Not unless it goes south from where it is now over MO and toward ohio
I think Taz is referring to Dean being the first Cat 5 in the Atlantic in two years...I am sure he realizes that there have been other storms in other areas that have been a Cat 5
735. H2PV
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
dean could still get stronger, unfortunatly


And then there are the tornadoes inside the hurricane -- Hurricane Frances had over 100 of them.
Thanks, nickmini...hope the yook folk are heading west asap...God Bless'm
Hey all if this thing gets 1 mb lower it will be the 10th Strongest Storm in the Atlantic Basin on record in terms on pressure.
I was looking for images of Dean's damage on the web and found a news site trying to pass off Katrina images as Dean images. I knew better. They must be hardup or just stupid.
Why is the storm called Invest 92I?
This is definitely a "perfect storm" situation for the Yucatan. Pressure dropping, it's strengthing and not even enough time for an EWRC. I truly pray that the authorities there have taken this seriously enough and that most people are out. One guy that they interviewed on TWC was trying to ride a motorcycle out of Cozumel and said that he hadn't heard a thing about the storm until he got a message on his Blackberry. I can't imagine what rock he has been living under, but it makes me worry that the word hasn't been getting out. Do we have any locals or people with relatives down there that know what's happening down there?
92L done gone puncture.
I am normally a rather tough guy. But you never forget. Hearing that Dean was cat 5 made me cry a bit. It all comes back you know. Just like it was yesterday.
well it will be interesting to see what happens to 92L during dmax tonight, if it still looks bad like this tomorrow then the chances for development are much lower. could get 93L in my opinion over the antilles there and into the east caribbean
he has to evac on a bike....but he has a Blackberry?!??!?!?!
745. Xion
I am normally a rather tough guy. But you never forget. Hearing that Dean was cat 5 made me cry a bit. It all comes back you know. Just like it was yesterday.

What storms have you been in?
746. PBG00
Posted By: nickmini at 1:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

coriolis if Dean kills 10,000 in the Yucatan like Mitch then yes it will be retired. It gets retired based on the amount of destruction it has done, which is not much as yet


Tell that to the people in Jamaica...Or the Caymans

If Dean plows through the yucatan as a 5, it will be retired for sure!
747. chf2
Cat 5!!! Wow! seems like forever since we had one of those hummers in the Atlantic!

However, we honestly should keep these people down on the Yucatan in our prayers!
Specifically Andrew...but I've helped out after other disasters. But even after a tornado, or seeing woodframes of a building under construction still gives me chills.
does anyone have the other models for 92L?
This is what a cat5 storm can do:
pic
notice how the north outflow is feathering upward...northerly steering winds coming into play?

Link
well being the 10th strongest recorded hurricane in the Atlantic, and about to make landfall being that strong, I would say chances are very high Dean will get its name retired.
i just got back...Dean made it to cat 5...all i can say wow and ouch
755. Xion
he has to evac on a bike....but he has a Blackberry?!??!?!?!

Even I, living in the United States, do not have a Blackberry.
Dean might become even the 9th strongest if it keeps strengthening
757. AndyN
Check these storms out,the train(waves) has left the station(Africa): Link
Bands already in BOC wow!
CMON SHEAR! looks like 92 is taking a beating. I though an anticyclone was above it?

anyone have a current shear map?
he has to evac on a bike....but he has a Blackberry?!??!?!?!

Some people have no sense of priorities. :-)

It was a motorcycle at least, but it looked like it was built in 1960.
has anyone got anything new on 92L I cannot find anything on it. How is it looking
The photos posted by Tharsheblow are from an apartment complex in Pass Christian, Miss. Before and after Camille. I believe this is the same apartment complex in which some fools decided to hold a hurricane party. I think most of them drowned.
Posted By: Buhdog at 1:25 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

CMON SHEAR! looks like 92 is taking a beating. I though an anticyclone was above it?

anyone have a current shear map?


Its not the shear that doing it. Its the lack of organization.
Posted By: Buhdog at 1:25 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

CMON SHEAR! looks like 92 is taking a beating. I though an anticyclone was above it?

anyone have a current shear map?


there isnt much shear over it where the center is
AndyN:

Yes, this thing at 10N 40W has appeared quite suddenly. And what is coming off W.Africa looks to be big.

When Dean was upgraded to a Cat5, suddenly people start thinking, "Oh my God, those people are all in grave danger..." I am not only referring to people here, OK?

The winds were upgraded by 5mph and the storm was reclassified.

Are the people really any worse off now than they were 2 hours ago with winds of 5mph less?

Just a reality check....
sory guys may i have the widerlook of the tropical floater ? with the GOM init .. please
models on 92L?
Xion, Yeah, I know. Its been a fallacy for years, that America is a developed country. LOL
i have a feeling one of those african waves will develop. both are looking pretty strong
There is a big blob in the south east corner of the north atlantic (I think it's the 2nd most recent wave off of africa) that looks more interesting than the invest as a matter of convection. It'll probably be 93L if it starts to spin. Comments?
772. IKE
Looks like Dean is still strengthening....
wave heights for Dean are in excess of 30 ft.
i am thinking we could get a lot of invests this week. the area in the east caribbean and over the antilles could become one to me and the wave off africa might
Whatever is at 10N 40W appears to be low amplitude and the convection is related to the ITCZ. Lets wait till the waves on Africa, come of Africa. Sometimes they end up getting broken into stratocumulus clouds.
Posted By: ThaCleaningLady at 1:26 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

has anyone got anything new on 92L I cannot find anything on it. How is it looking


NOT VERY HEALHTY..
Specifically Andrew...but I've helped out after other disasters. But even after a tornado, or seeing woodframes of a building under construction still gives me chills.

Hopquick: are you still in South Florida?

And mikester - isn't that picture after Andrew?
CaptnDan - It's not just the cat 5 status, it's the proximity to landfall. There were a lot of prayers being offered here before it came near Jamaica too and it wasn't a cat 5 then.
779. AndyN
Yes they do and the feature you are speaking of at 10N 40W is looking quite impressive. If it forms I don't think the US would be quite so lucky this time...Disclaimer: I would have to look at the outlook for steering currents....But I think the trigger has been pulled by Dean....
mikester, that's what an F5 tornado can do too. Looks more like tornado path.

92L is really fizzling tonight. Not sure what tomorrow will bring...

Dean is doing the opposite. has looked Mean all day...
Posted By: madmattforhurricanes at 1:27 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
sory guys may i have the widerlook of the tropical floater ? with the GOM init .. please


MATT: ALL THE MODELS CAN BE FOUND ON THE MAIN TROPICAL/HURRICANE PAGE, SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM!

Click the "tropical/Hurricane" at the top of this page you are reading now, then scroll ALL the way down.
Mahahual is going to be flattened. Instead of arguing over 5mph - maybe energy should be spent thinking about the people in the path of this beast.
It just doesn't seem very elevated there in the pics.

last night a poster was sounding like some were going to try and stay.
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:29 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Whatever is at 10N 40W appears to be low amplitude and the convection is related to the ITCZ. Lets wait till the waves on Africa, come of Africa. Sometimes they end up getting broken into stratocumulus clouds.

nice post Drak....I wanted to say the same thing but you beat me to it. Looks mostly ITCZ
It was reported a while ago (here) that NDBC Buoy 42056 was inoperative. Must have been a temporary thing due to local conditions, because it is reporting again...

Seas are 35.8 ft at that location.

NDBC 42056
correct me if im wrong but i believe cat 5's get their names retired even if they dont make landfall
Nope...I long since left. :D

All it takes is living through hell once to know you never want to live on a warm current coast ever again.
Plane detected over 180mph winds
once this plane is finished, when is the next one going in?
Posted By: SusieQ1949 at 1:33 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Plane detected over 180mph winds


When? i know they found 180mph flight winds, but at the sfc thats only 160mph
i'm back and suddenly there's a CAT5! I cannot wait until the 11pm advisory about the pressure. Currently Dean is the 11th strongest storm of the Atlantic basin.
PBG00 I am in Jamaica
Invest should be named as follows. Let me know where you need to mail check.

Position 1 - 1 through 9 incremented
Position 2 - A through Z incremented
Position 3 - no change

What is wrong with this? Easy to see what is wrong with curernt convention.
On NBC News tonite they did a story from Chezumel(sp) Mx., the city nearest the path of Dean. Almost 200,000 people. And the story was that warnings and evacs had not gotten out in time or had been ignored. Lots of people at risk here. They also showed the guy on the motorcycle with the Blackberry. He looked like he knew what he was doing and will be ok. Lots of folks down there don't have Blackberry's or motorcycles.
Posted By: Amystery at 1:35 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


lol thats what you say till it doesnt poof. it isnt over yet amy. also what about those african waves and the one in the antilles. i will remind you that you said this if 92L develops or something else does. sound like one of those annoying poof people who were wrong about dean last week
Nope it has to be notorious to be retired. Many retired names aren't even major hurricanes. And a cat 5 could be a fish spinner where we all ooh and ahh at the beautiful donut.
In regard, to 92L persistance is the key. If it persists there something it could very well spin up.
Lets wait for the NHC to give up on the wave before saying "poof".
That pic i showed is from andrew.
From Navy Norfolk on 92l albeit a while ago..

WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
//
We could have a major hurricane in the antilles again in 48 hours :( Major convection in the last few frames. The next discussions are going to be interesting.
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 1:33 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

From Navy Norfolk on 92l albeit a while ago..


that was from this morning.
92L is RIP
i think Dean will beat Janet of 1955, which had 914mb.
808. IKE
Posted By: Amystery at 8:35 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


How about some compassion for the folks in Deans path???
The 24 hour probability is not real good. It will probably a few days before there is much to talk about in the way of development.

TC prob
811. Xion
Found this on a weather blog about the area Dean will hit:

"As mentioned earlier today, the area Dean should be crossing is jungle. In looking at the map, we see it will involve to Sian Kaan Biosphere Reserve and areas where there are many indigenous communities. CNN is reporting waves will be up to 15 feet."
Oh man is 92L taking a beating. Come on shear, finish the job :D
Ok Amy if you say so. I will remind you that you said that if 92L does develop or something else does. And isnt dean promising? people's lives will be lost. Nice compassion
If anyone is interested, there are some recent updates on this blog from Cancun. Rumor has it they may try to have some flights going tomorrow.
Link
Keeping those in the Yucutan in prayers as well.


Wonder how much longer Recon will able to stay in Dean because it looks like it's still possibly getting even stronger. Deep Red ring now around the whole circulation on Sat Pics.

I've been through about 7. Near or over half by chasing them, and Hugo still remains in my mind today. 1989. And still in 1999 some work was still being done to rebuild some places.

Seems the Yucutan is going to catch Dean in some similar ways as Hugo. Seems to still be strengthening, fast forward speed that will cause bad damage Well Inland.

They are beautiful to see, amazing creation. They are here for a reason.

Yet also very sad when you know the destruction that lies ahead. :(
I guess its not use trying to reach out to some of you in the blog... I should have learned my lesson by now...
Posted By: Amystery at 9:35 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


people never cease to amaze me.
820. Xion
Come on guys, try to get along!

We don't want more members pulling a Stormkat and never showing their face around here again. :P
will the invest come into the gulf?
well amy you didnt see anything with potential for development yesterday and now 92L is here and STILL has potential for development, and i think the nhc would know better than you. so to me, your already wrong
is next plane at 2am, or before then?
826. chf2
So, I take it the next update comes at 11?
chill jp...ppl can discuss tropics here without your bashing...and yes ppl are compassionate
828. IKE
Posted By: Amystery at 8:38 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
I dont see anything promising this week


You are pathetic.
In response to a few posts on the topic, Copied from the NHC's site -

Regarding the retiring of storm names:

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
I'm still waiting for that proof the shear is the cause of 92L disorganization. What visible imagery shows you, does not back up that claim.
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 1:42 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

chill jp...ppl can discuss tropics here without your bashing...and yes ppl are compassionate


All JP was trying to do was defend the people in the Yucatan. Its not too important right now to look at tropical waves when we have the tenth strongest atlantic hurricane on record about to make landfall...
835. Xion
chill jp...ppl can discuss tropics here without your bashing...and yes ppl are compassionate

Seriously. He chose a wrong word, but I highly doubt he wants people to die from this storm.

So stop everyone please stop attacking him.
Looks like bull's-eye MAJAHUAL.

Drakoen, 10 deeeeep breaths..................
Posted By: Drakoen at 9:42 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
I'm still waiting for that proof the shear is the cause of 92L disorganization. What visible imagery shows you, does not back up that claim.


I don't see enough shear on any map that would cause it to be disorganized either.
841. chf2
So, I'd like to know what Y'all think the wind speed will be up to tomorrow mornin' 'fore this baby hits land
Hey, I couldn't resist a peek, and am glad I did.

OH Boy, cat 5. Talk about Hurricane Janet repeat! And I think Janet was one of those storms that crossed to the Pacific and got a new name (or was that Hattie?) . . .

On the guy with the bike and the Blackberry, maybe he has to evacuate on a bike BECAUSE he has a blackberry . . . LOL

I have a feeling the bike is a personal preference, not a last resort . . .
Extreme...I am new at this so I can't honestly answer if those were flight winds...I am learning here!! They did say 180 mph winds but I am inclined to believe what you say!!

Port Richey, Fl
844. IKE
Posted By: Amystery at 8:44 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
No new named systems this week. IMHO


You are forever on my ignore list. I'm up to 15.
I am on the Board of a Medical relief organization....we have been working round the clock to line up shipments of med supplies and water filtration systems to Jam and Mex....also, the impact on tourism will paralyze the Yucatan....I'm am exceedingly hesitant to pitch a specific group here...but there are gonna be a lot of opportunities to help these folks...search your souls and do what you can
yep Snapper41 hugo was a bad boy i lived in florence sc at the time and had a lot of damage

Posted By: IKE at 1:46 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: Amystery at 8:44 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
No new named systems this week. IMHO


You are forever on my ignore list. I'm up to 15.


ROFL.
848. LLJ
Nothing that can physically be done regarding evacuations in the Yucatan and Belize. More loss of life will occur by doing that at this late hour.
This always happens in every storm no matter what country....especially the US.
Warnings were issued and constantly well in advance of Dean.
I keep all in my thoughts and may God bless and keep all those about to endure this hell.
849. PBG00
PBG00 I am in Jamaica

Yes, I saw that in an earlier post..I thought it odd that you would say there wasn't much destruction when some of your country men lost their homes...and the Caymans lost their entire banana crop..that is peoples livelihoods there..The people in Palm beach were not affected by Andrew..but it devastatde some peoples lives none the less, and it was retired..

That is my point. And I am glad that you fared well in the storm.:)
Posted By: Amystery at 1:45 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

ULL is causing the issues with 92L, thus why it will not develop fast if not at all. Check water vapor loop...


Are you talking about shear problems? because there is a anticyclone over 92L
good evening.
It looks like an area of disturbed weather has developed near 11N 41W. There seems to be mid to upper level rotatiom. the system is in a low shear environment and lots of moisture around it. it will be quite interesting what this area does during the night hours. my guess is it will continue to organise and have an invest by tomorrow.
Posted By: Amystery at 1:35 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


Out-of-work adjuster.


Too bad. We good adjusters are trying to clean up the hail we've been working for the past 6 months so we can keep the ones wishing for destruction out of work.
Thinking about the people in the Yucatan, watching TV or the internet, emotions on a roller coaster with every new image update and every little wobble. Hope there were few stubborn ones who refused to evacuate. You don't want to be near the eyewall of a major hurrican.
Amystery do you think it is possible for something else to form potentially off africa? Or do you KNOW nothing will develop
I don't see any upper level low.
The guy with the motorcycle definitely looked like he lives his life in a more casual way than the rest of us. He's probably got it right.
861. chf2
Well, let Dean do what Dean wants to do, but I'm retiring!
Got to wake up at the crack of dawn so I can be the first to see the 5 am update ;)
G'night
nrtiwlnvragn,

you don't want to be in the eyewall of a major cane, especially not a cat 5 hurricane.
Posted By: Amystery at 9:45 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
ULL is causing the issues with 92L, thus why it will not develop fast if not at all. Check water vapor loop...


ULL? where?
865. Xion
We can always hope that the people in that portion of the Yucatan know what to do when such a storm comes their way and that everyone has been informed of it.
Not all Cat 5 names have been retired.
92L Invest Update

There has not been any changes to 92L over the past 6 hrs. QuikSCAT and buoy observations indicate that the system remains an open wave.
NRL has the center near 238N-604W but maximum convergence and low level vorticity is to the west and southwest of that center. Tonight on infrared imagery the system looks terrible, shear is not all that terrible and SSTs are above 26C but organization is just terrible. It would interesting to see what the system does overnight, but if this continues dont expect to see a tropical depression from this.

That area of showers in the Central Atlnatic appears to be just an area of showers tonight but again all we can to is watch.

Posted By: Amystery at 1:49 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Well, I am off for the night,


I think thats best.
MAJAHUAL

Map of Yucatan for reference. MAJAHUAL is where It's looking to be Bull's-Eye
Water is a lot cooler where 92 L is headed compared to where it is, or where Dean is.Link
Posted By: IKE at 1:38 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: Amystery at 8:35 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


How about some compassion for the folks in Deans path???

IKE. I fully agree with you. I've been thru too many hurricanes. The latest was Ivan, which caused tremendous damage to my house. I'm sorry to see that several bloggers treat hurricanes as a mere game of stats and records to be broken. This is sad. Lives, livelihood, and property are at stake here. Those of us who are at risk, are content with uneventful hurricane seasons.
Posted By: Amystery at 9:51 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
right beside it, looks kinda sorta like a weak ULL, they whole complex is not a typical tropical wave, has several things going on, thus why any strengthening will be very slow to occur.


lol. in a kinda sorta sarcastic kind of way.
4. What is the origin of the word hurricane?

"HURRICANE derived from 'Hurican', the Carib god of evil...
alternative spellings: foracan, foracane, furacana,
furacane, furicane,furicano, haracana, harauncana, haraucane,
haroucana, harrycain, hauracane, haurachana, herican, hericane,
hericano, herocane, herricao, herycano, heuricane, hiracano,
hirecano, hurac[s]n, huracano, hurican, hurleblast, hurlecan,
hurlecano, hurlicano, hurrican, hurricano, hyrracano, urycan,
hyrricano, jimmycane, oraucan, uracan, uracano"
From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology

It should be noted that the Carib god 'Hurican' was derived from the Mayan god 'Hurakan', one of their creator gods, who blew his breath across the Chaotic water and brought forth dry land and later destroyed the men of wood with a great storm and flood .


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good evening everyone. First my prayers go out to those in Mexico who are experinceing Dean right now. I think it will be a sad situation when the sun rises and we see the news and destruction. This afternoon I was litening to the local news here NBC6 on the radio and I think it was John Gerard spoke with a reporter that was in Chetumal, Mexico, the reporter stated that most of the people he observed were taking Dean lightly. I hope this is not that case. Now I have a quick question re: 92L. How hot is the water in the area? Most news casts I saw said we should be receving heavy rains in South Florida by Friday.
The "little blob" nearing the antilles is about 1/2 the size of dean and had -80 c cloud tops about three frames ago on the atlantic loop on the tropical/hurricane main page.
879. Xion
Not all Cat 5 names have been retired.

Emily is a blatant example of that being it was so overshadowed by Rita, Katrina, and Wilma.

Even Dr. M couldn't believe it.
amystery your not a psychic so you dont know what will happen. good night
Getting the BIG PICTURE!

the big picture
Ah, cool. Majahual is behind some barrier islands. Hopefully they aren't inhabited though.

"As mentioned earlier today, the area Dean should be crossing is jungle. In looking at the map, we see it will involve to Sian Kaan Biosphere Reserve and areas where there are many indigenous communities. CNN is reporting waves will be up to 15 feet."


I spent a week in this area last January (from Tulum to Akumal) to dive and film Cenote dives. I also shot top-side video of some of the damage left by both Wilma and Emily. One thing I found from local conversation and observation was that the palm frond thatched roofs seem to hold up better than anything they use for roofing here in the US other than concrete. The reason is that stuff flexes so well. I saw Soliman bay where Emily made a direct hit, and the Mayan tradtional log and palm structures fared much better than anything else with the exception of poured concrete.
nrtiwlnvragn,

you don't want to be in the eyewall of a major cane, especially not a cat 5 hurricane.


Agree totally, hence my wunderground ID
Northern Eye Wall Never Again
Andrew
Amystery how many times are you gonna say "Well, I am off for the night,"..."night all"

before you actually leave.
888. Xion

I spent a week in this area last January (from Tulum to Akumal) to dive and film Cenote dives. I also shot top-side video of some of the damage left by both Wilma and Emily. One thing I found from local conversation and observation was that the palm frond thatched roofs seem to hold up better than anything they use for roofing here in the US other than concrete. The reason is that stuff flexes so well. I saw Soliman bay where Emily made a direct hit, and the Mayan tradtional log and palm structures fared much better than anything else with the exception of poured concrete.


Wow.

And I would think just the opposite. I hope they hold up against this storm.
Good night Amy
Luckily the Mexican army will move you out even if you don't want to leave. Hopefully they relocated anyone who could be harmed.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:49 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

lol really?


Dr Steve thinks opposite of the NHC then lol


and there is no dry air anywhere around 92L, lol

I have a feeling you dont even know what you are looking at lol


Thats what i am think. Must be some type of Anti-water vapor imagery.
892. AndyN
Looking at Mexico City on Google Earth it seems to be between some mountains and there seems to be a lot of desert and little grass...I suspect heavt rain would flood the city,if it can make it through the smog
893. KRL
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:37 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
Posted By: Amystery at 9:35 PM AST on August 20, 2007.

92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


promising? there is a Catastrophic Category 5 storm hitting land and this is what you come on here with?

pathetic post, show some compassion for those in the way of this storm


Agree with jphurricane. You guys with the "disappointed" sounding posts when something big doesn't develop are frickin scary. WTF??? Show some compassion is right.

Besides people getting their lives taken or turned upside down, Dean is also heading straight in towards some of the worlds largest nature preserves where millions of animals, birds, coral reefs, and other living things exist that will have no shelter against this monster.
ok i guess i might not see you then amy unless your brave enough to come back after a new cyclone develops
Posted By: Drakoen at 9:55 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

Thats what i am think. Must be some type of Anti-water vapor imagery.


Anti-water vapor imagery...lol.
is recon in dean now
897. IKE
Posted By: orion45 at 8:51 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 1:38 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: Amystery at 8:35 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
92L is going poof, doesnt look like anything promising this week.


How about some compassion for the folks in Deans path???

IKE. I fully agree with you. I've been thru too many hurricanes. The latest was Ivan, which caused tremendous damage to my house. I'm sorry to see that several bloggers treat hurricanes as a mere game of stats and records to be broken. This is sad. Lives, livelihood, and property are at stake here. Those of us who are at risk, are content with uneventful hurricane seasons.


I love following the tropical Atlantic and get a certain rush over watching systems form and intensify...but, I wish no harm to anyone from the destruction they cause.

I went thru Ivan too...but I'm 70-80 miles east of Pensacola and the worst I experienced was a couple of days without power. Had branches down all over my yard. What a beast that storm was.

Amystery was on here to incite folks. It worked with me. It won't happen again with her. I may be banned for a period of time. She just got under my skin.
Ok guys i have just updated my blog on dean, his damage, his winds now 160mph, and 92l and our other blob. Please come talk to me there and enjoy the information and please pray for those in the yucatan they have one of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall bearing down on them.
This ULL that Amystery talks about is a mystery! LOL!
A large portion of the people in Mexico make less than 50 cents an hour-if they can find work at all. Few own vehicles for self-evacuation. Many couldn't go south, north is not a good choice either. West not the best choice. Many can't go, or have not many places to go. Granted, the area of likely landfall is less populated than the more popular tourist areas, but nearly ALL will be effected by this storm, some dangerously effected.

Weeks without power, little water and food, medical needs, injury, death, obliterated housing and for most of the area tourist jobs and income lost for months and months!

...I'd say some compassion is at least in order! JMHO
901. Xion
Looking at Mexico City on Google Earth it seems to be between some mountains and there seems to be a lot of desert and little grass...I suspect heavt rain would flood the city,if it can make it through the smog

LOL

I am sorry, but that is pretty funny (not the rain, but the smog joke).

Mexico City is the most polluted city in the world and third most populated I believe.
N jog
000
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

I heard that now Dean has pressure of 914 mb?
Is the movement of Dean WEST?
IKE. You must be in Destin.
907. PBG00

I have a feeling you dont even know what you are looking at lol


I agree with you..LOL
Theres an awful lot of dry air between 92l and Floridas east coast. Ill be surprised if theres much development.

But I sure wouldnt mind a good rainy TD. Weve had less than an inch of rain for the entire month of August.

Prayers and fondest thoughts for the people of Mexico.
I spy with my little Cat. 5 eye - a little jog to the north (WNW)?
does anyone know how long it would take over land to bring the winds down? I am familiar with smaller hurricanes that go 30-40 miles and weaken tremendously.
That's what I thought. North Jog.
Stormfury. Have you a forscast track ( your ideas ) for the system at 10n 40 w ?
I am at 11n 61 w, and looking at that.

p.s. Your spelling is fine with me, LOL
Current Recon flight plan:

FLIGHT THREE
A. 21/0000Z. 0600Z
B. AFXXX 1504A DEAN
C. 20/2030Z
D. 19.1N 84.80W
E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

E. is the planned flight time. They should be flying until 0600Z.
Oh good lordy, I posted this accidently on the older blog hahaha so I will try again.

Hey guys, been lurking since Dean first came off the African coast. I have been enthralled by this blog, had a giggle at times and learnt lots so thank you. I have been in awe of Dean on one hand, and so saddened and scared for all those that have been in its path, especially now those in the Yucatan :(
I did see the report on the TV earlier this evening about the guy on motor cycle with the blackberry. What astounded me was the stupidity of another guy in the same report that said he and his friend will be on the beach and will find cover somewhere :0

Prayers and good thoughts going out to all those in the Yucatan.
Ok guys i have just updated my blog on dean, his damage, his winds now 160mph, and 92l and our other blob. Please come talk to me there and enjoy the information and please pray for those in the yucatan they have one of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall bearing down on them.
918. IKE
Posted By: orion45 at 9:00 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
IKE. You must be in Destin.


Defuniak Springs,Fl.....
Can someone convert the recon plan into english, please?
Agree totally, hence my wunderground ID
Northern Eye Wall Never Again
Andrew


I started to ask about your name the other night. The "Never Again" was easily deciphered, but wondered about the prefix. A mystery no more.
921. AndyN
Mexico City: This valley is a basin surrounded by mountains on all four sides, with only one small opening at the north. At the southern part of the basin the mountain range reaches an altitude of 3,952 m (12,965 ft) above sea level; and to the east the volcanoes reach an altitude of more than 5,000 m (16,000 ft). The region receives anti-cyclonic systems, whose weak winds that do not allow for the dispersion outside the basin of the air pollutants which are produced by the 50,000 industries and 4 million vehicles operated in the metropolitan area. Polulation is 19.3 MILLION!!
The Mayan Ruins will be fine ... they actually built things to last ... not like our crap that last for 50 - 100 years
923. AndyN
If Dean continues toward Mexico City, which I believe is in his path, could be deadly....
EllistonVA wrote: The guy with the motorcycle definitely looked like he lives his life in a more casual way than the rest of us. He's probably got it right.

I think you're right. When everybody evacuates around here it becomes gridlock on the 4 lane divided highway headed north. In a car you have no choice but to sit like what happened in Texas. But on a motorcycle there are 4 shoulders, and the space between the two sets of lanes for additional options.

I hope that guy manages to keep his Blackberry dry. :)
chetamul...land fall around 5am...it is 210 from chetamul...not going to hit cancun or couzemel.. /troops are deployed at chetumal. Shelters are open in Chetamul.

Flight level winds of 189!! Update around 10:45 by CNN!! Tulem Mexico is getting rains..
One thing I think that people on the blog may forget (since so many are very smart & plugged into all the time), is that some people, especially in places like Mexico don't have access to the type of information we do. Even here in the states there are people who don't own tv's, tend not to listen to the news, and may not be aware of storms, etc. They have a different lifestyle, and shouldn't be considered to be dumb, etc. Disasters are called that for a reason - they hurt innocents.
Definition of the recon plan fields:

Summer Plan
A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
F. Altitude(s) on Station
G. Remarks (if needed)

From the NOAA site. B. usually tells you if it's an Air Force plane or a NOAA plane and their flight number. E is the planned time to be flying the storm.
Ive been a week without power, but i can't imagine what what devastation will be brought down upon the epicenter of Dean's landfall. Anticipating that Dean will continue to strenghten until landfall, it could quite possibly be one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall on the mainland of any country in the world, considering a system like Mitch which was a Cat 5 at one point was only a Tropical Storm at landfall.
I got the Motorcycle but no blackberry. Just a plain ole cell phone. God bless those in the path of Dean.
"Posted By: zoomiami at 10:01 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
does anyone know how long it would take over land to bring the winds down? I am familiar with smaller hurricanes that go 30-40 miles and weaken tremendously."

As far as weakening, Wilma came across Florida in 2005 and was moving about like Dean and was nearly as strong when it left the east coast as it was when it came ashore on the west coast. That entire area is going to get hammered as well as the mainland of Mexico.
8.016N, 39.267W had a 6.6 earthquake at 6:42pm

Where is that at?


It's along the Atlantic ridge.
Not too far beyond where that interesting blob showed up today.
PBG00 I am in Jamaica

Yes, I saw that in an earlier post..I thought it odd that you would say there wasn't much destruction when some of your country men lost their homes...and the Caymans lost their entire banana crop..that is peoples livelihoods there.


What I'm saying is it is relative.

Jamaica Gilbert 1988, 90% of pop adversely affected, while Dean 2007 only 10%
I drove around Kingston today and did not see one missing roof, a few shingles, that's all. After Gilbert.................there were entire communities without roofs.

Cayman Ivan 2004, 95% of all buildings destroyed, 100% banana crops destroyed, while Dean 2007- 70% of bananas gone. Hey Cayman does not depend on bananas, they are all about offshore banking!
It is also hard to imagine the damage a hurricane can cause unless you see it for yourself. You see it on T.V., but it isn't the same, I learned that with Ivan and Katrina. So, people tend to underestimate the power.

Back to lurking!
SusieQ -- 189 mph or kt?
Chad Myers said Dean is the 10th most intense atlantic tc....is that tru?
I don't want to bicker about 50 miles with this type of cane but Dean already north of Xcalak, so center and dirty part of storm north of that.
New blog is up...Dr. Masters is up late with this storm!
Posted By: SarahFromFLA at 2:01 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Theres an awful lot of dry air between 92l and Floridas east coast. Ill be surprised if theres much development.

But I sure wouldnt mind a good rainy TD. Weve had less than an inch of rain for the entire month of August.

Prayers and fondest thoughts for the people of Mexico.




Less than an inch? Where the heck are you in Florida? I live in west central Florida and Ive had just over 16 inches so far, many other spots have had 8 to 12 around here this month...


Although I must say, the last week has has been way too dry, opposite of the fist 2 weeks and whats normal.
I live 90 miles inland. But Ivan Pounded us for hours.Eyewall came over my home. Many homes with trees cutting them in half. Roof damage from winds. I dont want to see no more.
IKE. I live in Navarre, so I assumed east on US98. Whenever there is a hurricane headed this way, I try to stay as well informed as possible. There is a lot of good info on this blog which allows me to make an educated guess about the storm's track. A lot better than watching the Weather Channel. Some of their so-called experts are nothing more than "trackers".
while Dean 2007- 70% of bananas gone. Hey Cayman does not depend on bananas, they are all about offshore banking!

... The wise old Indian Chief said "It will be hard to eat a $100.00 bill when all the plants and animals are gone."
As has been said, the northern portion is even worse because you add the forward speed to the wind speed. If Dean keeps up this pace, the top side is going to see winds 20 mph higher than what is listed.
"Weather Underground is committed to delivering the most reliable, accurate weather information possible."

Oh, really? Check out their forecast for Chetumal, updated 2 1/2 hours ago.


Link
"Weather Underground is committed to delivering the most reliable, accurate weather information possible."

Oh, really? Check out their forecast for Chetumal, updated 2 1/2 hours ago.


Link

Your Link goes to Wikipedia
Camille in 1969 was the strongest ever hurricane to hit the US mainland. 200 mph winds and 25 ft surge.
Some interesting facts about Hurricane Janet and Chetumal:

1. at the time the storm passed Chetumal, the barometric reading there was the fourth lowest reliable sea level land barometer reading - in the world!

2. the anenometer at the airport there stopped working at 175 mph, and winds at Chetumal were estimated in excess of 200 mph at the height of the storm

3. only about 2500 people were estimated to live in Chetumal, and at least 120 bodies were recovered; many others were felt to have washed out to sea; over 500 deaths were recorded in the state (Quintana Roo). Keep in mind this was 50+ years ago when the population there was genuinely sparce.

4. Janet was alleged to have done massive flooding damage to the Tampico area on its second landfall, but I think they had difficulty at the time getting an accurate report because earlier storms, Gladys and Hilda, had already caused extensive damage in the area. (Imagine being hit by 3 hurricanes in 6 or 7 weeks! Oh, I forgot FL did that in 2004 . . )

5. Janet's circulation emerged from the W. Mexican coast and was the focus of yet another area of disturbed weather in the E Pac.

Not surprising, is it, that when they started retiring names, this was one.
949. A4Guy
What are the thoughts about the invest?
Looks shabby tonight...but that doesn't mean much!
Posted By: orion45 at 2:22 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Camille in 1969 was the strongest ever hurricane to hit the US mainland. 200 mph winds and 25 ft surge.




More like 190, but, thats still the strongest no matter how you slice it, also from what Ive studied, gusts may have topped 250...
Oh, I forgot this:

Janet left 4 badly battered buildings standing in Chetumal; they had 6 1/2 FEET of sea water 1600 feet inland, despite the shelter of the peninsula which forms the bay.
Posted By: GoofOff at 10:18 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

As has been said, the northern portion is even worse because you add the forward speed to the wind speed. If Dean keeps up this pace, the top side is going to see winds 20 mph higher than what is listed.



This is incorrect. The top windspeeds are just that. They are relative to the surface, not to the center of circulation. This is, however, why the strongest winds are always found on the "front, right" side of the storm, because everywhere else in the storm, its motion is working against the windflow. HH jets are not sitting inside the eye and looking at windspeeds around them, they drop a dropsonde down into the storm to measure the winds right there.

If that doesn't make sense, think of it this way: If what you were saying was true, why wouldn't they be adding to forward speed to the speed they use for advisories. If there's a 65mph TS heading your way at 15mph, according to you, they should be issuing Hurricane Warnings, but they don't. They issue Tropical Storm warnings because they know the highest winds you'll get are 65mph. It is in their interest to provide people with what they forecast will actually happen. Intentionally underepresenting the windspeed like you imply can only lead to loss of property and life.
I remember reading somewhere that winds of 235+ were felt in guam from a super typhoon(cat5 hurricane like dean). I can't remember the typhoon's name though. I believe those are the highest recorded winds for a hurricane/typhoon?
ok guys. my moms is in cancun. she has been calling me with updates.

first real band just came on shore. not sure of the wind speed but probly close to ts force atleast gusts.

part of the hotel district lost power but it came back on 30 mins later. not sure she is checking they might be on generators.

her and other tourists are havung a good time enjoying the show. only negative she siad is the stopped serving alcohol till wensday :-( lol
does anyone have a radio link to mexico? Listening to Jamaica radio yesterday was interesting?
Corozal, Belize after Janet, Sept. 1995

Jedkins. Back in 1969, it was harder to obtain the actual wind speed since most anemometers probably blew off at those speeds. I sincerely doubt anyone was out in the eye with a hand held anemometer trying to measure the actual speed. I bet 190 and 200 mph are both guesstimates. We're still debating whether Ivan was a CAT 3 or 4 at landfall
959. Xion
This is incorrect. The top windspeeds are just that. They are relative to the surface, not to the center of circulation. This is, however, why the strongest winds are always found on the "front, right" side of the storm, because everywhere else in the storm, its motion is working against the windflow. HH jets are not sitting inside the eye and looking at windspeeds around them, they drop a dropsonde down into the storm to measure the winds right there.

If that doesn't make sense, think of it this way: If what you were saying was true, why wouldn't they be adding to forward speed to the speed they use for advisories. If there's a 65mph TS heading your way at 15mph, according to you, they should be issuing Hurricane Warnings, but they don't. They issue Tropical Storm warnings because they know the highest winds you'll get are 65mph. It is in their interest to provide people with what they forecast will actually happen. Intentionally underepresenting the windspeed like you imply can only lead to loss of property and life.


They don't modify the wind speed if the hurricane slows do they?
960. BtnTx
It appears as though the Yucatan folks in the path of the storm where they are going to take a direct hit have already lost internet communication. This was the last post I saw from afime's blog down there:

Posted By: GeorgefromLosCabos at 9:19 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.

Thank you so much to all of you that think in us and our friends in Yucatan!.
961. Xion
I remember reading somewhere that winds of 235+ were felt in guam from a super typhoon(cat5 hurricane like dean). I can't remember the typhoon's name though. I believe those are the highest recorded winds for a hurricane/typhoon?

Super Typhoon Nancy I believe.

But that reading was likely due to a damaged anemometer, so it is not valid.

The strongest winds recorded were 190 mph sustained in Allen and Camille, BOTH which are believed to be too high and will be reanalyzed soon enough as a reanalyzation project works its way through the decades.

I mean look at Wilma, she had 185 mph winds post-analysis and was the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic.
Posted By: GoofOff at 2:11 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

"Posted By: zoomiami at 10:01 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.
does anyone know how long it would take over land to bring the winds down? I am familiar with smaller hurricanes that go 30-40 miles and weaken tremendously."

As far as weakening, Wilma came across Florida in 2005 and was moving about like Dean and was nearly as strong when it left the east coast as it was when it came ashore on the west coast. That entire area is going to get hammered as well as the mainland of Mexico.





You've gotta remember, Wilma travelled across the Everglades. Lots of moisture, so she didn't weaken much.

Iremember...they said 189mph...update coming soon.

I am new at this!! Is there a way to get to the posting your comments quicker than moving your mouse down to it. Dah...

God Bless these people in Mexico that is Dean's path!!

Winds now gusting more than 190mph!! Chad Myers said offshore off 150 miles Just saw a small wobble..15 min wobble...turned a little bit north..may save Chetamul a little...160 mph wobble!! May be a little different scenario for tulum...very concerned about quality of homses in Tulum...thousands of tourist stuck in Yucatan!!
I sincerely doubt anyone was out in the eye with a hand held anemometer trying to measure the actual speed.

Maybe Forrest Gump did ...
how did Wilma Deflect off Yucatan and head to Florida
966. Xion
You've gotta remember, Wilma travelled across the Everglades. Lots of moisture, so she didn't weaken much.

I am not positive, but this is supposed to be a nature preserve area with marshes and such that Dean will be traveling over. Probably not the Everglades...but nevertheless.

And Dean doesn't seem to like to lose his strength also.
Posted By: Hurricanman at 9:53 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

Ah, cool. Majahual is behind some barrier islands. Hopefully they aren't inhabited though.


The barrier islands, if I remember correctly, are not permanently occupied; fishermen use them as bases for fishing the atoll there. There is also a lot of tourist diving in the area of that atoll, though, so I have a feeling that anybody who may have been out there is long gone.
The strongest winds recorded were 190 mph sustained in Allen and Camille, BOTH which are believed to be too high and will be reanalyzed soon enough as a reanalyzation project works its way through the decades.

You ever seen the pictures of what was not left after Camille went through Mississippi? Hotels washed away, people swept out to sea...gee, does it matter whether it was 180 or 190 MPH winds...whatever was used to measure it at the time registered whatver the winds were...it's like arguing how far baseballs are hit...stories of Ruth and Mantle hitting them 550 feet...if that's how far they went, then that's the distance...same with hurricane winds...
It was super typhoon paka. 236 mph winds on land in guam though the enemometer was broke so no-one knows for sure how accurate this is. Still anything over 220mph winds is unbelievable in a typhoon or hurricane.
Wasn't Forrest Gump in NAM at that time?
If you look at Google Earth, you'll see that the area of Mexico Dean is headed for is virtually unpopulated. The large "biosphere" is void of development, and inland are Mayan ruins. If you had to pick a place for a category 5 storm to hit, this would be it! Even the cruise ship port of Costa Maya is just a few oversized tiki huts.
Pressure now 914 mb
... in Forrest Gump he and Lt. Dan were out fishing and Camille hit... One of the historical events that impacted Forrest's life
The MIMIC loop looks to me like Dean is losing some strength prior to landfall. Hopefully at least, it is not intensifying anymore.
I'm a new member, and really enjoying reading all the postings. You guys know a lot about TSes, TDes, and ULLs. :) I'd like to learn more about the predictive models. A couple of web links have been posted, but they only gave the models' predictions. If anyone knows of a site or .pdf that gives the actual differential equations, please post.

Thanks!
windlover
Update from NHC: numbers have changed a little bit...a little jog to the north...pushing lots of water into Hondorus...to the west at 20...gusting winds of 190mph...move onshore around 6am. Live from Cancun...strong bands moving onshore...hotels were rebuilt after Wilma...can withstand Dean...
Posted By: Xion at 10:34 PM EDT on August 20, 2007.

They don't modify the wind speed if the hurricane slows do they?


It's not a question of modifying wind speed, but rather just showing what the maximum current windspeed is in the storm. Storm velocity is just one of the factors that affects this, but the point is when NHC tells you its got 60mph winds, its got 60mph winds. They don't want the general public to have to think about "well what if it speeds up... or slows down...?" as far as wind speeds go. If they tell you to expect 60mph winds, that's the highest you'll get. If it strengthens or weakens, they'll let you know.


I apoligize if I come off rude in this, sometimes I'm not too good at wording my ideas :)

Side note: goodnight everyone!
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 2:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
...If you had to pick a place for a category 5 storm to hit, this would be it! Even the cruise ship port of Costa Maya is just a few oversized tiki huts.

That's funny, that's the same thing they say about Pensacola.
tou can clearlysee 92l has a spin here Link
goodnight all 92l dead watch east of antillies
Posted By: HIEXPRESS at 9:55 PM CDT on August 20, 2007. (hide)
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 2:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
...If you had to pick a place for a category 5 storm to hit, this would be it! Even the cruise ship port of Costa Maya is just a few oversized tiki huts.

That's funny, that's the same thing they say about Pensacola.


Only we have more Mexicans in Pensacola than they do in this nature preserve.
By the way, a storm with 100 mph winds, moving at 10 mph can have 110 mph on one side and 90 mph on the other. The 100 mph is relative to the storm, not the surrounding area.

So in other words, speed of the hurricane DOES matter.
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 2:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.
If you look at Google Earth, you'll see that the area of Mexico Dean is headed for is virtually unpopulated. The large "biosphere" is void of development, and inland are Mayan ruins. If you had to pick a place for a category 5 storm to hit, this would be it! Even the cruise ship port of Costa Maya is just a few oversized tiki huts.


I realize you don't mean to be dismissive, however there is a small town behind those "oversized tiki huts". Where do you think the people who work at the cruise port come from ? They don't teleport there every day.
Winds up to 170 based on Hurricane Hunter Data!

Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 162KT (186.3mph 300.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 2358Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 145.8KT (167.7mph 270.0km/h) * Misc Remarks:
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 18 17' N 085 00' W (18.3N 85.0W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2359m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 121KT (139.15MPH 224.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 9nm (10.35miles) From Center At Bearing 318
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 156KT (179.4mph 288.9km/h) From 047
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 318
Minimum pressure: 914mb (26.99in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 16 nm (18.4 mi 29.6km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Major ROFL 'ColaBuoy,

The most interesting I see now is that blob pulling off the ITCZ at 10N -42W, SE of the 92L shredding ULL. Bloggers?
Yes they say it will go across an animal preserve. Cancun and Couzemel will get missed of the strongest winds.

Cnn shows a url of extreme storms. Tulume CNN eye will be north of Tulume. 10,000 people live in Tulume and a poor town. Eye will come into chetumal. No hurricane there since 1975.

the presure is 20.96 inches which is close to Camille.

I realize you don't mean to be dismissive, however there is a small town behind those "oversized tiki huts". Where do you think the people who work at the cruise port come from ? They don't teleport there every day.


You're right... I do not mean to be dismissive. I was in Ivan's eastern eyewall and can't imagine what destruction this monster will bring to the Mexican coast. I just meant to say that if it has to hit somewhere, you want it to affect as few people as possible. I was in Costa Maya in March and know there are real people behind the huts, but I'm sure they were bussed far away. The people along the Yucatan are pretty good at evacuation. My neighbors were in Playa del Carmen during Emily in 2005 and spent three days in the shelter where they were taken--a whorehouse, literally. Solid structure, as it turned out! It wouldn't have been so bad had they not been in a room with 35 other people and one jug of water.
They should turn off the power now. Hurricanes are attracted by live power lines. Ever notice - when the power goes out, the storm leaves?

(Sorry, comic relief - may contain traces of nuts)
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 3:12 AM GMT on August 21, 2007.

You're right... I do not mean to be dismissive. I was in Ivan's eastern eyewall...


Thanks for the further explanation. I just didn't want the folks reading this blog to think that no one lived in that area.
Posted By: SusieQ1949 at 10:12 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.

Tulume CNN eye will be north of Tulume. 10,000 people live in Tulume and a poor town. Eye will come into chetumal. No hurricane there since 1975.


Tulume and Chetumal are exactly 130 miles apart.

THE EVOLVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY
CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI.


With northerly jog, Dean's eye may pass closer to Tulume than Chetumal, but the worst winds won't affect both towns.
Just inland from projected landfall:
Felipe Carrillo Puerto
Quintana Roo,
Mexico
Population: 22709
Pray for these people. They are on the train track, about 20 miles inland.
Dean is getting more red and he goes ashore. And the eye is getting more round.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


Just a layman's observation. I hope this doesn't mean its getting worse for those underneath it. It amazes me to think that there is life underneath those satellite images.
Google Map of Landfall Area

Last TCHP that area. Hoped it wouldn't feel the warmer water.
000
URNT12 KNHC 210702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/06:48:30Z
B. 18 deg 36 min N
087 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2285 m
D. 120 kt
E. 171 deg 7 nm
F. 268 deg 123 kt
G. 171 deg 009 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 9 C/ 3049 m
J. 21 C/ 3009 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 05:48:20 Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION