WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Dean hits Category 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 AM GMT on August 21, 2007

Hurricane Dean has intensified into the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. The latest Hurricane Hunter fix at 8:34pm EDT found 185 mph winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet, which corresponds to surface winds of 160 mph. The pressure had dropped to 914 mb, and I expect Dean will strengthen right up until landfall. Landfall is expected near Chetumal, Mexico, just after midnight local time. Dean will be a tremendously destructive storm for southern Mexico. Dean is powerful enough to be able to survive the crossing of the Yucatan as a Category 2 hurricane, and hurricane advisories have been posted for cities on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only hurricanes on record that survived crossing this portion of the Yucatan and maintaining hurricane intensity were Hurricane Roxanne of 1995, which hit just south of Cozumel as a Category 3, and emerged near Campeche as a Category 1; and Hurricane Janet of 1955, which hit near Chetumal as a Category 5 storm, then weakened to a Category 2 storm when it popped out into the Gulf of Mexico south of Campeche. We can expect Dean will carve out a path of great destruction all the way across the Yucatan Peninsula, then potentially re-intensify before hitting Mexico again along the Gulf Coast in the Bay of Campeche.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Dean.

Links to follow today:
Radar from Cancun, Mexico.
Chetumal, Mexico observations.
Cozumel, Mexico observations.
Belize City observations.
Campeche, Mexico observations.
Morphed microwave animation.

I'll have a full update Tuesday morning at about 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Mornin' All...

Ike - gotta agree. Doug, don't fret. Pat - we're all prepared...
More from Jamaica,
The airport in MoBay opened for full service yesterday and the Kingston airport opened for limited service- full service tomorrow
here's the stupid question of the day lol did dean make landfall as a cat 5 with winds of 165 pressure 906?
Stormw is ur synopsis up yet
1006. emagirl
so what is the chances of 92L developing into at least a TD?? just curious
Morning All!

Thank the lord that Dean's destructive eye made landfall in a nature preserve and avoided the heavily populated areas. Reguardless, I am sure there were many people in that area and my prayers are with them this morning, hard to imagine.

92L still hanging around, looking like a rain event, thank god again. Still have the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream to pass, have to keep an eye on it. They can pop up in a hurry in the conditions it's forecast to be in the next couple days.

here's the stupid question of the day lol did dean make landfall as a cat 5 with winds of 165 pressure 906?
Big mess coming off the coast of Africa today...
1010. nash28
I see the GFDL has not yet run on 92L.
Here are two links showing that Invest 92 might be a tropical depression or tropical storm on the west coast of Florida in 6 days. Let me know your thoughts.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007082100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation






MASSIVE wave about to exit Africa. It will be interesting to see if it can hold together when it reaches the Atlantic.
Good morning everyone!!
I have a quick question to ask: are any of the models developing the Wave of Africa? Well it's still on land..but once it gets off are models developing it? Thanks
1014. kerneld
A nice little presentation on how cyclones form.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4588149.stm
What are the west Africa countries that these waves form over before coming off the coast?
The CMC appears dead-set on developing 92L off the west coast of FL, doesn't it? Well, that's 5 days off - let's hope not. Ike - got any of those anti-storm pills left in your kit? We're gonna throw them into the system as it crosses the peninsula - whaddayasay?
1017. o22sail
OMG- I just read the latest Dean discussion after landfall. My prayers go out to all who are in the swath of this monster.
1018. nash28
For some odd reason, the GFDL did not initiate model runs for 92L.

I thought once labeled an invest, the GFDL runs the model on it, regardless of whether or not there is development.
I see that Nash! TCFA has not been reissued either, good news!
Mr. Niceville. it almost looks like it crosses the state as a ts and then the last part as it develpoing and bending down towards Tampa. Now that is weird
1021. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:39 AM CDT on August 21, 2007.
The CMC appears dead-set on developing 92L off the west coast of FL, doesn't it? Well, that's 5 days off - let's hope not. Ike - got any of those anti-storm pills left in your kit? We're gonna throw them into the system as it crosses the peninsula - whaddayasay?


Florida and the eastern gulf states could use the rain...hopefully it won't be anything more then that.
There was some discussion about Hurricane Iniki starting off as an energy pulse in the Atlantic then progressing into a hurricane which survived as a energy pulse transversing Mexico to revive on the Pacific side of Mexico, is there a chance that we could see that with Dean ?
1023. nash28
I guess they dropped 92L.
Good Morning All....It is very HOT here in the SE so any rain, and cooling, that 92L could bring to Florida would be most appreciated...Does not look like anything this morning and models 5 days out are a little too speculative for me so I'm hoping for a rain event............Also hoping that Mexico and Jamaica receive any assistance that they may need with any recovery efforts...
Link

The GFS Model Analyses and Forecasts shows some activity but nothing in the next 14 days...
92L could develope into a tropical storm within 48 hours and go into the east coast of Florida which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. We can use the rain in Central Fl.
1027. LLJ
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket


Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket


THIS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ITZC NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 27 N.
AT THE TOP OF THIS WAVE A LOW PRESSURE IS NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITEPHOTOS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ONCE IT ENTERS TO A LESS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.



1030. LLJ
Those are the latest surface forecasts......92L does not look dropped.
will they cancel the flights to Dean if it is over land or do they still fly
Yeah - I don't like the CMC - too many false starts - but it has been fairly good in the last two weeks, so I won't ignore it. I'm not impressed with what I see out around the Bahamas - we'll just have to wait and see.

Nash - yeah - I think that they did drop it. Good thing too, it was so disorganized that I felt like I was looking in a kaleidescope when I was looking at the floater images...
Thanks for posting that LJ, I see your correct. Only made it as far as the navy site so far this morning.
Posted By: LLJ at 12:48 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Those are the latest surface forecasts......92L does not looked dropped.


LLJ - CMC seems to be the only model with any significant development of 92L - Hopefully all of the other models are right.

Don't see anything else developing in the next few days on any models. How quickly do they pick up the waves coming off of africa?
1036. LLJ
Here's the GOM situation:

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Thanks storm - u just made my day! (NOT!)
1038. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:49 AM CDT on August 21, 2007.
Yeah - I don't like the CMC - too many false starts - but it has been fairly good in the last two weeks, so I won't ignore it. I'm not impressed with what I see out around the Bahamas - we'll just have to wait and see.

Nash - yeah - I think that they did drop it. Good thing too, it was so disorganized that I felt like I was looking in a kaleidescope when I was looking at the floater images...


Not sure it's been dropped yet...looking at those maps that LLJ posted.

1039. Drakoen
Interesting wave coming of Africa. We'll have to see how it holds up.
Until further notice, I will listen the NHC's forecast. Conditions are favorable for development. Stay tuned. Some of the models take it across FL and emerging off the W gulf and then taking a parallel track just off shore before heading to the W again. Waay too early for that though. We need rain...
Are any models developing the african Wave? and if so when and where? and are you sure that that is not like 3 waves LOL..thanks
1042. LLJ
Those are just surface forecasts that I posted. But it is from the NHC/NOAA.....so obviously they are thinking some development is "possible" at those forecast times. What really happens may be completely different.
Not an expert on the issue of "proximity" and the effect on other systems but it seems to me, just from visual observation, that 92L's chances of any development sort of hinge on Dean "clearing out" and making room in the atmosphere for it...Given the current "view", I think that Dean would have to move over past the Bay of Campeche and clear the way.....
Will be nice if that's the situation in 72 hrs, LLJ! Wait - the box says possible tropical cyclone - not so nice...
Ike - it's still a feature on the maps, but I think that they've stopped treating it as an invest. After it went through the cheese grater yesterday, there's not much left to investigate...
navy is no long showing 92L, perhaps they are going to hold off on it till it shows more potential, if it ever does
a lot of vigorous waves will be coming off africa, perhaps one may develop. but they both couldnt cause there too close to each other
92L is RIP they this took it off the navy site


now we trun to this

THIS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ITZC NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 27 N.
AT THE TOP OF THIS WAVE A LOW PRESSURE IS NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITEPHOTOS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ONCE IT ENTERS TO A LESS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.



taz, that low pressure is with ex-92L lol
1050. Drakoen
Taz what wave are you talking about?
The ETA still has 92L hanging around.. Crystal ball is cloudy on this one.

Link to rap/ucar ETA


But i kinda agree with Dean having to clear out. Right now it looks like some of the feeder bands from Dean are pulling juice from 92L... Oh well. :)
I have been to the place Dean came ashore. They had said Costa Maya this morning and it was a sad thing if they were hit directly.

When the 2004 hurricanes hit the caymans it drove business to this port from the tourship industry. I expected they reaped the benefits for the last 3 years and I had heard they made lots of improvements only to have it all destroyed. There were a lot of impoverished people there already begging for money and I can only hope they were all able to get out of the way of this storm. The land is very low in that area and the storm surge would of went miles inland.
1053. LLJ
Looks to me that the NHC is a little concerned about a very favorable environment developing just ahead of 92L. Tonight might be interesting.
the ? is what are you talking about?
im not willing to say 92L is RIP yet. it is only RIP when it disspates completely, but the nhc is now recongizing a low pressure with it, so its something to watch
I think Dean and hurricanes in the past similar to Dean should have their own classification. For the longest I've been thinking it's Annualar, but it's in a class of its own.

First off, the dry air ahead of Dean kept it from strengthening at first, but afterwhile Dean began to push the dry air back. Dean stayed the same strength or strengthened during multiple EWRC, it also maintaned Cat 4 strength for a very long time without fluctuating. It became a Cat 5 and strengthened right before landfall, fortunatley most Cat 5's normally fizzle out right before landfall. One can only tell how much it will weaken over land. I think they should classify Dean a "Durricane."

I hope that the people of Belize and Mexico heeded the govt's warning and got out of the way of this beast, because I don't see how anything can withstand a pounding from sustained winds of that speed. God be with them!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

the ? is what are you talking about?


Taz that wave you are talking about with the low pressure is with 92L...
1058. Drakoen
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

the ? is what are you talking about?


I was talking about the wave of Africa... There are no other waves besides 92L.
Space - let's hope not - I'll keep my Magic 8 Ball on standby tho (LOL)
1060. Bonedog
know what amazed me with Dean it was the first hurricane of the season and also became the first Cat 5 and the first landfalling cat 5 in 12 years. Amazing just 2 weeks ago folks wrote off the season as a dud.
The waves on africa are impressive...
1062. Drakoen
Posted By: extreme236 at 1:04 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

The waves on africa are impressive...


One wave on Africa.
: extreme236 and Drakoen i am talking about the wave that is a part of the ITZC not EX 92L




THIS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ITZC NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 27 N.
AT THE TOP OF THIS WAVE A LOW PRESSURE IS NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITEPHOTOS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ONCE IT ENTERS TO A LESS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.




this is the wave that is a part of the ITZC the nhc was talking about and they did say it has a ch of be comeing 93L when it moves in to less wind shear


I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT EX 92L
Does anyone have any pics of Belieze yet (post storm) I've been to that port and I cannot believe that anything on the immediate coast is still standing, esp those straw huts. The storm surge must have been completely devastating also. If those piers are still in tack I will be amazed.
1065. Drakoen
Taz there is no wave in the ITCZ...
this blog gone nuts got it nuts
1067. Bonedog
amazing scenes coming out of Mexico now as the day progresses and more reports come in. CNN has some great coverage including a reporter just south of where it came ashore
1068. LLJ
Taz.....this IS 92L:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD CYCLONE CIRCULATION APPEARS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE REGIONAL SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS
INTEGRATING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN COMBINATION
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ITZC NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 27 N.
AT THE TOP OF THIS WAVE A LOW PRESSURE IS NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITE
PHOTOS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ONCE IT ENTERS TO A LESS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.
there is no wave in the itcz with convection, notice how the low pressure extends to 27N. that is just itcz convection
1070. Drakoen
Looking at the SFC charts there in only one wave and that is 92L. Everything else is ITCZ convection.
WHat's going on around 10N 48W? Is this just a wave or is there a Low Pressure associated with it?
1074. Bonedog
weathers the Belize coast was south of the landfall thus had offshore winds which would decrease the storm surge. Also pics to the north of landfall still show the huts on the beach, including umbrellas, still there.

What some need to know is that the hurricane force winds were only 60 miles wide which saved alot of folks. The reporter in Chetumal(sp) which was just south of the landfall (within 40 miles) reported strong winds but only a few strong gusts. The photos from him show flooding and some awning damage.
nhc web site is off line
and according to shear maps, the african waves would have trouble developing until they reached the Catl
I have to give props to the NHC. Im pretty amazed at how good their track with Dean was.
Ofcourse, once things got aligned it was pretty obvious what would happen. Not much of a risk for change with such a strong high above it. But either way, their track didnt have to be changed much once they set it south of PR and this gave many people in Dean's path the chance to get ready.
Lets hope the next systems can be faithful to the official forecasts too and not pull unexpected turns on us.

By the way, did anyone here hear on the news about hotel owners in Jamaica not telling tourists that Dean was coming so they wouldnt loose them?
Oh I was wrong, I was thinking that Belieze was somehow on the N side. Looks they might have been spared. I need to know what kind of umbrellas they use there, mine get blown away with a sea breeze here. LOL
1081. Bonedog
looked like wood pole, wooden spares with grass mats as the cover. At least from the pics on TV
I live Charleston SC and have Hugo experience. Dean reminds me of Hugo - both eyes passed just north of Chetumal/Charleston and both had sparsely pop. areas to the north. Both had resort areas north and just beyond the worst of the storm.
Now I have 92L to think about - I don't like the looks of the tracks of the models - lets hope it becomes a nonevent as some are suggesting.
1083. nash28
Well, even though the GFDL hasn't run on 92L yet, it must still be active since the GFS ran this morning and the BAM models were run this morning as well.
those beach umbrellas that look like little bohios or huts are very effective and strong. they are made the way the indians used to make their houses and they do work.
first they are very deep into the sand and second its very strong wood covered with old palm tree branches and different dried plants.
i havent seen the pics you are referring to but thats whats widely used in the caribbean.
Space - I've never looked at the GEM b4. It's just been something that's been out there - no one ever talks about it. Doubt that it's good at cyclogenesis, but I may be wrong.

Now as to what's wrong with it? Well, it looks like a model they would use for "It Could Happen Tomorrow"...

1086. nash28
The GEM is the Canadian model.
92L has disappeared from the Navy site... so I'm not sure what's up with that.

As for Dean... this satellite image shows that he is clearly weakening, as he has lost his eye:

Satellite Image
1088. Bonedog
this is what saved alot of folks.. very sparesly populated landfall location


Link

the link is a google map of the landfall location
Nash - are the GEM and the CMC different models?
lol MrNiceville totally on your side on that one.
1091. Bonedog
benrica thats what those umbrella and huts were in the scenes from the reporters. I am watching CNN on TV as I chat so thats the source of my info.
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 12:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Not an expert on the issue of "proximity...


Would tend to agree. Outflow from Dean wrapping in to this system. Lotta high altitude air that wants to descend. Warming up and drying as it does. Not the best scenario for development.
Seems to be alittle spin east of here Fl. I have been watching the west pac this yr. They just had three typhoon all make landfall in Taiwan the past month. Do you all understand the teleconnection theory of weather? Anyway I wouldnt be surprised this ex 92 move over into the western gulf. Newest models. Hwrf one. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
thank goodness that Cancun was spared. they were hit bad recently and that is a big blow to the mexican economy, more so to that particular state.
unfortunately the consequences of that popular destination being pretty much obliterated not too long ago were that cruise ships and tourists switched their location to Puerto Rico and we had a very good season that year.
But still, im not too pro wishing one bad for my benefits.
1095. Melagoo
I find it amazing how Dean seemed to avoid populated areas from start to almost finish
Posted By: Obsidian at 1:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

I think Dean and hurricanes in the past similar to Dean should have their own classification. For the longest I've been thinking it's Annualar, but it's in a class of its own.


I think the same thing. Hurricanes like Dean, Katrina, and similiar are in a class by themselves. The damage inflicted is so much worse than smaller storms.

Having seen the devastation wrought by Camille, a Category 5 and then contrasting it with the damage by Hurricane Katrina, a Category 3; it seems another classification is needed for storms like Dean, Gilbert, etc.

Jamaican hoteliers didn't tell tourists about Dean?

I find that a bizarre stataement, Tourists left in droves from two days before Dean and every tv and radio was set on weather since Thursday. I would love to know who those tourists were.
1098. Bonedog
Live shots from Cancun show the sun emerging from the clouds. Looks like a breezy day,not tropical storm breezy just a windy day. Waves look 8 to 12 foot close out sets.

Reporter said they drove around and only noticed some minor flooding at intersections, a few trees down but thats about it.
1099. LLJ
HPC tropical discussion:


A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF 28N AT 1800
UTC WAS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION WAS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEAN. HOWEVER THE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON DAYS 2-3 AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE
GFS 850 HPA VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A
TIGHT CIRCULATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THIS TRACK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON DAYS 2-3 OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
05-15MM WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 25-35MM.


This discussion is from yesterday afternoon.
I believe this is the strongest landfall in verifiable history, or at least since the Labor Day storm of 1935.

Looking at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1988.pdf, it seems that Gilbert's pressure rose quite a bit before landfall. I am still looking, but I believe Dean was stronger at landfall (not stronger at sea, of course).
That model is scary looking. I looks to have something come across FL and sit and spin and grow in the Gulf just off shore and head off the NO. Lets hope that is not the case.
how could anybody write off the season as a dud 2 wks ago????????????
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/p/putintang3/2.jpg?r=1187703396

please take a look at map, and tell me which blob am I suppose to be watching. 1, 2, or 3

and I hope I did this right, I never uploaded a pic before
i was asking the question because i too found it to be a very bold and outrageous statement.
i dont usually trust the random headlines that pop up around the internet, so thats why i asked it.
the article said that small hotel owners were neglecting to tell their guests until it was impossible to hide. although id understand not telling my guests until it was 100% sure that it may come... it was probably some tourist that wanted to know about Dean when it was over by Barbados and only found out when it was south of Puerto Rico and felt misinformed...
you know what some tourists can be like.
Well right now South east Louisiana has a big high sitting over it. We have heat advisories until 7pm each day until Thursday. What happens after that, I don't know.
1109. Melagoo
Where is Patrap these days? ... he always posted great info.
Navy website doesn't even show 92L anymore. Does that mean it's not a threat anymore??
Posted By: medic2luv at 1:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Navy website doesn't even show 92L anymore. Does that mean it's not a threat anymore??


At this time its not, but still watch it closely cause conditions are still becoming more favorable
Ok all you weather wiz kids......what is the lastest on 92L and its future?
The NHC stated in their last discussion that there is a low that has formed and that conditions are becoming more favorable in the days to come.
1114. Bonedog
latest on 92L is it has broad circulation but is considered a wave right now thus the removal from the floaters and Navy site. If it holds its circ it is moving into more favorable conditions and could become a player in a few days.
For history's sake: What stats do we have at Gilbert's landfall? It seems like Dean had a lower pressure at landfall. Gilbert's pressure rose significantly before landfall (still in the low 910s, I think. But I only have a pressure chart so fat.
Posted By: LLJ at 1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.
A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF 28N AT 1800
UTC WAS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION WAS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEAN.
There ya go.
1118. SEFL
"Posted By: medic2luv at 1:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Navy website doesn't even show 92L anymore. Does that mean it's not a threat anymore??"

92L was never a threat, just an area of interest and possible development!! :)
where did you here it was retired from?
Ummm won't Dean be retired much later? At the annual conference?
I believe 92L is encountering alot of shear, and i believe there is no circulation as of right now...
One thing. Notice how Dean no longer has an eye. due to topographic/orthographic interaction. It was EXTRAORDINARY that Erin developed an eye OVER much more rigorous terrain. :)
Once again, 92L isnt under a lot of shear and there is a broad cyclonic circulation if i am correct
1124. Bonedog
yea they dont retire names until after the season.
I wouldn't even consider a season a dud until the first of Oct.
Posted By: boobless at 8:49 AM CDT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: LLJ at 1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.
A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF 28N AT 1800
UTC WAS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION WAS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEAN.
There ya go.
--okay is this 92l or something else??...and could someone post a link showing this??...newbie here and still trying to learn where all the different model sites are...Thanks!!
yea thats 92L
1129. nash28
92L looks the way it does because Dean is sucking moisture away from it.

That should end today and 92L will have plenty of favorable conditions with which to work with.
1130. MZT
ERIN is STILL making news.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20346539/

That's somethign else... it was barely a tropical storm at all when it came ashore. It is the "Allison" of 2007.
thank you bonedog for the positives. I have many, many friends right below the impact area, which is the little town now a cruise ship destination (unfortunately in my opinion) called Majahual. just south, about 35 miles is one of the finest associations of peoples I have ever come acrost in Xcalak, at the tip of Mexico close to Ambergis key, Belize. Xcalak was leveled by Janet in the 1950s with much loss of life.
I am anxiously awaiting any damage reports!

it appears that the storm crossed right over the pristine offshore reef, an atoll, called Banco Chinchorro. inland, a likely affected town is Felipe Carrillo Puerto
Posted By: sleepingdove at 1:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

SD, pretty much the same area. Just a note on the general enviroment in this area of interest.
From the 8:05 am morning discussion from the Atlantic....

"...Tropical waves...
an eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65w/66w south of
29n moving west 15 kt. A 1014 mb low pressure center developed
along the wave near 24.5n. Development...if any...of this system
is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward near 20 mph
over the next day or two."
1134. Melagoo
Looks like more activity Link
true nash, as dean weakens and moves away 92L will be in a much better enviroment. the enviroment is already gradually improving
Computer models are strange. Some have the storm from a point way away from the center why? One has it coming into the Gulf.
another has it going out to sea whats up with that?
might Eric be retired also?? that would be unexpected... and it a was just a Tropical Storm.
Hasnt it already killed more than Dean?
Lookes like Dean is already half way across the peninsula. anybody have his speed handy?

Posted By: LLJ at 1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.
A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF 28N AT 1800
UTC WAS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION WAS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEAN.
Newbie here: It states 1800utc, which is 2:00pm EST. That is approx. 4 hours from now. Can anyone explain!
different time zone. utc
Melagoo: It that the LLC that they are watching in the lower portion (just over the Aug 21 display)
1142. LLJ
Posted By: LLJ at 1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

HPC tropical discussion:


A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W AND SOUTH OF 28N AT 1800
UTC WAS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION WAS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEAN. HOWEVER THE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON DAYS 2-3 AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE
GFS 850 HPA VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A
TIGHT CIRCULATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THIS TRACK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON DAYS 2-3 OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
05-15MM WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 25-35MM.


This discussion is from yesterday afternoon.


However it is still accurate regarding the potentiality of development. Gotta do some work...later.
take a look at the time it says the post you copied was posted... 1:38pm
Posted By: Hernando44 at 2:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.


LLJ wrote this discussion was from yesterday.
WaterVapor loops still support the point of the Tropical Discussion.

Subsidence won't last forever though. 24 36 hrs imo
1145. Bonedog
report out of Tulme (sp) which was just north of the eye had no powerline damages and little in the way of flooding. Live shots show folks walking in the streets right now.
1146. IMA
Posted By: HopquickSteve at 1:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

For history's sake: What stats do we have at Gilbert's landfall? It seems like Dean had a lower pressure at landfall. Gilbert's pressure rose significantly before landfall (still in the low 910s, I think. But I only have a pressure chart so fat.


Dean has the 3rd lowest landfall pressure, according to TWC. Labor Day ('35) and Gilbert ('88) were lower. He said 906mb for Dean but didn't say what the other 2 were.
take a look at the time it says the post you copied was posted... 1:38pm

1:38PM GMT, which is 9:38AM EST. this morning.
1148. Bonedog
Gilbert...

the minimum pressure at landfall was estimated to be 900mb
Something to be thought about here. Even if 92L just becomes a tropical depression. There is a good chance that it will swing around the high parked in the southeast. That could bring a whole lot more rain to areas that can't take any more.it does not need to be a cat 5 hurricane to be very devestating.
1150. Bonedog
Labor Day Hurricane....

A landfall intensity of 185 mph with a 892 mbar pressure would be plausible as 2005's Hurricane Wilma had a similar pressure with 185 mph winds. The recorded central pressure (a standard of comparison for hurricane intensity) was reliably reported as 26.35 inHg (892 mbar hPa).
The ETA still has 92L hanging around.. Crystal ball is cloudy on this one.

The Eta model is not run anymore. That is called the NAM (WRF) model.
Benerica and Boobless: Sorry: I should have waited a few minutes and I would have seen LLJ's post about being yesterdays statement.
Uhm Rap/Ucar still call it the Eta. I guess the atmospheric research guys/gals in Boulder are all wrong. :)
yes even if 92L were to develop and only become a TD or a minimal TS, it could still cause problems. Look what Erin did lol
1155. CJ5
Dean is still churning and he was a pretty amazing storm. Once he got his act together he basically maintained textbook intesification and appearance. Obviously, the warm Carr waters allowed him the necessary tools to grow. The forecasts on his path were pretty much right no from nearly the very first model run. There was a slight adjustment consenus around 8/14 but they all came back. The Gfdl ran a little foul several times but all and all it was pretty good forecasting. With the exception of the pesky Ull throwing some for a loop his path was about as easy to predict as it could ever be. That doesn't happen to often.

I hope the people of Mx do not suffer to much as Dean moves through.
Gilbert would have been worse at landfall had it not have gone on some sort of drug indused bender and start stacking up EWRCs. There's one archived pic somewhere of Gilbert with three eyewalls at one point. Its like it was self destructing or something. The comparison between it and Wilma, however, has to take into consideration size. Gilbert was something like easily three to four times the size of Wilma in both eye measurement, wind field, total cloud coverage.

Camile may have had a higher wind speed measure, but, it was another pinhole storm like Wilma. Its just that with a wind max like camiles, there has to neccessarily be more of a spread ot its winds.
Posted By: Hernando44 at 2:17 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Benerica and Boobless:...


I suffer from similar brains farts on a daily basis. I mean yesterday ]
Its storms like this one, with near straight line tracks and simple surrounding environments, that raise the accuracy average of all the sane models and the NHC.

I'm more concerned with their accuracy on storms that have a more complex environment.
Posted By: spaceonfreenode at 2:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Uhm Rap/Ucar still call it the Eta. I guess the atmospheric research guys/gals in Boulder are all wrong. :)


No, they pretty well know what they are doing. If you open any loop/plot of the ETA results, however, NAM is the tag in the corner. I suppose that the web interface details are not on the top of the priority list for those guys as it has not changed in at least 5 years.
Posted By: CJ5 at 2:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

The Gfdl ran a little foul several times but all and all it was pretty good forecasting. With the exception of the pesky Ull throwing some for a loop his path was about as easy to predict as it could ever be. That doesn't happen to often.


Ya, the ULL was the only thing not written in stone...
I have a question. Look at the black and white water vapor. There looks to be a huge wave breaking centered around Puerto Rico. what is that? ull?
1162. quante
Here is what NWS Miami says about 92L, which I guess is no longer 92L, but a wave??:

A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG APPROX 62 DEGREES WEST. THE FORECAST
WILL BE BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.
So anyone else calling for StormKat's two-week hiatus after yet another failed "forecast"? lol
1164. emagirl
so do we think 92L will devlop or not??
emagirl more models are picking it up today.

Link
mornn guys. this was frm 8:00:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO.
DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.

DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
Posted By: emagirl at 2:35 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

so do we think 92L will devlop or not??


OK, I'll go way out on the limb here.
Not today.
1168. russm1
Posted By: quakeman55 at 2:31 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

So anyone else calling for StormKat's two-week hiatus after yet another failed "forecast"? lol


Just wait till something else spins up...he'll be back telling everyone in NO to get out now and save themselves....lol
so there y ahve it dean was a record setter first to hit at that intensity pressure wise since 1935 labor day system.
I agree 92l will have improved conditions but as it's waiting for Dean to move far enough it'll be running out of ocean to move over especially since it's forecasted to be right at Fl by end of the week. I'm still not sold on 92l doing anything but crossing the sunshine state as a strong/weak wave.
I think the GFS went coo-coo with 92l. wth?
1172. emagirl
so if 92L doesnt develop before making it to FL what is the possibility of it crossing FL and entering the GOM would it have the chance to develop before landfall again??
Anyone know the lat/long where Dean made landfall in Mexico? We own property (just raw land, no buildings)~11km south of Mahahual. It sounds like we were ground zero! If you've ever been down there you'd know that the Mayan population is wonderfully warm and welcoming. Prayers for the people & animals in the area. Thanks for your help.
im thinking if 92L can organize maybe a depression or minimal storm if its lucky
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17.
Want to be sure I understand this correctly, as I'm still a rookie at this.......moving in the direction of 285 degrees at 17 mph?
and if im not mistaken StormKat also said it wouldnt hit mexico and that it would pass thru the yucatan channel and into texas/LA, so he was wrong there too
Extreme, has a storm ever done that?
1178. CJ5
We need something to develop and come inland in Alabama. We are parched with a level 4 drought that started months ago and have had 100+ temps for nearly two weeks. It is so bad that I have large trees dying from lack of water. Grass is gone and things are just terrible.
Posted By: setfree7 at 2:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Extreme, has a storm ever done that?


Done what?
new update from DR M
92L drop from the navy site?
CJ5, can you share some of the rain with NC. We even have our local churches praying for rain. It is so hot and dry.
Posted By: extreme236 at 9:52 AM CDT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: setfree7 at 2:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Extreme, has a storm ever done that?

Done what?


Has a storm ever gone across the Yucatan then make it's next landfall on TX or LA?
Posted By: setfree7 at 2:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 9:52 AM CDT on August 21, 2007.

Posted By: setfree7 at 2:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2007.

Extreme, has a storm ever done that?

Done what?

Has a storm ever gone across the Yucatan then make it's next landfall on TX or LA?


Im sure its happened before, but I cant remember a time in my mind right now, but I bet it has happened before
1185. gthsii
I love reading all you people going ??? over SK...I've had him/her on ignore for weeks now so I never have to deal with SK cr*p...
1186. Tropix3
If anyone wants some good info on the condition of Cancun this is a good read - Link
I'm so happy I didn't cancel my trip in 11 days as someone had mentioned.