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Dean, Felix and Noel get their names retired; 13th warmest April on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2008

For the first time since the the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005, a new set of Atlantic hurricane names has been permanently retired. Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee decided to retire the names of Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, and Hurricane Noel during their annual meeting in Orlando this week. These names will not be used again because of the significant death and destruction these storms caused in 2007. The names Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor will serve as replacements of the 2013 hurricane season, when the names from 2007 are scheduled to repeat. The list of retired hurricane names now features 21 storms from the decade of the 2000s, and 70 storms since 1954.


Figure 1. Satellite images of the fearsome threesome of 2007: Dean, Felix, and Noel.

The names for the coming 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Looking at the latest long range GFS model forecast, there's no sign that we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Arthur during the last half of May. Wind shear remains seasonably high over the tropical Atlantic, and there is plenty of dry air evident.

In the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began yesterday, the names for 2008 are Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Isell, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. There's nothing brewing in that ocean basin, either.

April 2008: 13th warmest April on record for the globe
April 2008 was the 13th warmest April for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The January-April year-to-date period ranked twelfth warmest. A weak La Niña event continues to cool ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The La Niña event weakened considerably in April, but has stabilized just above the threshold for being classified as neutral, during the first half of May.

A cool April in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April was the coolest April in 11 years for the lower 48 United States, and fell into the lowest twenty-five percent of all Aprils based on records going back to 1895, making it the 29th coolest April on record. Precipitation was near average for the month.

April arctic sea ice extent
April 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record for the month of April, 7% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. April was the fifth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The past four years had the least April sea ice extent since records began in 1979, with 2007 having the least April sea ice extent on record. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this year, the volume of the arctic sea ice is probably at a record low for April. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends beyond the North Pole.

I'll have more on Cyclone Nargis next week. The Southwest Monsoon has continued to push northward, and is expected to move into the cyclone-devastated region on Saturday, bringing heavy rains.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm Backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.... Lol Looking at the coments that were posted when i was gone


990. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 12:56 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
hey kid that stuff will rot your teeth lol



I Have Braces On too
1002. vortfix
I am so ready Keeper!
I know you are too!

Just bring something on...please!
BTW...if any of you haven't read Master's tale of his flight into Hugo...maybe you should...it's very well written...pretty dadgummed interesting....
i know u are vort its so close now you can smell it
It is all good Baha, for most of us it resizes automatically. I did forget to put my "" around my width setting and that is why it wasn't fixed yet. That is what I was trying to figure out.

Next time I will link the smaller image to the actual image. Think that should provide the best of both worlds ☺
1006. vortfix
Some high wind and hail reports this evening mostly across Western Tennessee.
WUFU, China (CNN) -- The first thing you notice about this small town in China's quake-devastated Sichuan province is that every building is standing except one: the primary school.


Bi Kaiwei rushed to his daughter's school, digging with his hands, desparately trying to find her.

1 of 2more photos » As many as 200 children were killed here, crushed to death when three stories of concrete came crashing down.

At the school gates, some parents have left their children's identifications cards as a sort of makeshift memorial. Others still cling to them, like Bi Kaiwei.

When the major earthquake struck a week ago, Bi came rushing from the nearby factory where he worked and started digging with his bare hands.

"We tried to save as many children as we could," Bi said, still holding his daughter's school ID photo. "But these concrete slabs were too heavy, we couldn't move them."

Five hours later, he found the body of his little girl, Yuexin, near the building's only exit.

"They were so innocent," he said.

Standing next to him, his wife, Liu Xiaoying, held another photo of Yuexin. The 13-year-old girl, sporting a long ponytail and a red-and-white-striped shirt, smiles broadly in the photo as she holds the brim of her red cap between two fingers



This Makes Me Want To Cry , So Sad why did all those people have to die ... ='(
I have read it several time press, very good. Gives me the chills every time. That may have something to do with the fact that I saw and sat through what it did on the ground and can not imagine what being in the air must have been like!
1009. vortfix
i know u are vort its so close now you can smell it

Yeah pal.....I've been sneezing for three days already!
yea...Hugo was no gentleman...
1012. vortfix
Who thinks the GFS may be on to something?


Photobucket
hope not vort...
I thought it dicountiued that system hiting fla
1015. Patrap
UNYSIS GFSx May 28
Below Se Cuba Link
just a little too far out for me but i know you know that
its been showing it for a while got to get a little closer
Yea sammy, it did, Vort is trying to pull the wool over our eyes :~)

That said, being of the run on an 18z run at 260hrs does not mean a whole lot either way.
I guess it must be time to begin to compile the WU scientific terms dictionary 2008 edition,

#1. StormJunkie 8:11 PM EDT on May 18, 2008

swirly bloby thingy
1019. vortfix
Oh my....consinstecy in the LR GFS is like heaven y'all!

Just make rain you sweet model......
1020. nash28
Well, wouldn't that be in line with last year... June 1st 2007- TS Barry: hits Tampa. An early TD or TS hitting the Gulf Coast of FL is nothing new or shocking. Especially when you consider that for the first month or so, most all of the activity will come from the southern GOMEX.
Photobucket

HG, to try and answer your question at #976 is no, no tornadoes, which mainly occur in the US. But, this is their monsoonal season and the above anomaly graph indicates that they're slightly above mean rainfall amounts. The ITCZ area is beginning their season now which runs from approximately May thru July. It's said that 40 percent of rainfall during these periods can be in excess of one inch per hour.

So, while, I don't think they suffer from severe weather in the terms we think of, obviously, they have periods where they have to deal with heavy downpours and flooding issues, I'm fairly sure.
1022. nash28
I've got a pithy one for ya guys..

#2- Sweet circle of love!
2 pm EDT 2mr this african easterly wave is expected to be near the coast:







1024. vortfix
You just worried about your own butt Nash?
Wow the GFS is notable to me in that it is 1. cohesive between frames and 2. it it the first tropical system prediction when NONE had been before.

But it could possibly come from a cut off low looking at the model more closely.

We will have to see if it stays in the model.
1026. pottery
Greetings to all.
I'm back after being cleared by Admin, for NOT causing the blogout 2 nights in a row.
What are the chances of being the last post, 2 nights running, before The Crash?
T'was weird man.

Any way, the waves are still coming, and not producing anything of note. Not really surprising, as there is still a lot of dry air and dust between 20n and 50n. Looks like some moisture coming into the western GOM though.
1027. nash28
Nope. Just saying that activity in either my region or the Gulf region of FL during June is nothing too new... Usually nothing to worry about. But we could certainly use the rain.
1028. surfmom
Please some rain for me too, I do not water my grounds and my trees are begging.... the last water hole in the pastures out east has dried up. Kinda scarey being around so much hay and everything soooo tinder box dry.

It would be so nice to clear out the air too!
greetings pottery
1021. MLC

I think the difference with the "monsoonal" pattern over W Africa is that it's mainly rain, and the type / extent of rainfall is relatively invariable. I was reading an interesting report earlier today which suggests that the onset of heavy rains can be timed to within 7 days of June 24th, which is about the same time the ITCZ shifts to about 10N. I think this type of rainfall is directly linked to the type of vegetation found along coastal areas of W Africa (the heavy rainforest, is what I'm thinking about), and I think people there have adjusted to the pattern follows.
ya know....a glossary of terms would be a great idea...say...for instance...as part of a site with cool links to models , etc., and great tutorials..if, hypothetically, such a site were to exist....
1032. pottery
Thanks to Keeper and Baha for the company last night late, on WUmail.
Good Evening everyone. Hope everyone is in good health.Just notice a blob N of Panama seems to be expanding this evening, any thoughts or is it a bit early to be worried.
Thanks for that analysis, on that african easterly wave, W456!
1036. Drakoen
Looks like another real nice wave coming of the coast of Africa. Vorticity maxes at both ends of the wave axis and good potential vorticity.
Yeah, I'm guessing that they are probably quite accustomed to the monsoonal changes, just wanted to answer HG's question if the waves were severe like we think in terms of severe.
1038. vortfix
The perrinial Panama blob........
1039. pottery
Hi 77. You got any rain there ?
1040. vortfix
Please analyse the waves regarding their EPAC impact....they ain't happenin nowhere else.

actually, the "waves" emerging off the coast of Africa have more in common with typical Florida afternoon thunderstorms than with what we in America think of as severe wx type systems.
No Pottery...it was overcast all day, but, no rain (sigh)
Hey, Pottery! WU fining you yet for killing the blogs? ;P
1041. Ivansrvivr 9:32 PM EDT on May 18, 2008
actually, the "waves" emerging off the coast of Africa have more in common with typical Florida afternoon thunderstorms than with what we in America think of as severe wx type systems.


Based on what I understood from that report, this is a fairly good description. Heavy rains that don't last for days at a time, with limited winds. The EAWs need the interaction with the ocean / winds to develop.
1045. pottery
Same here, on and off. 77.
My bet is on the next new moon, we start to see some rain. ( old people's saying LOL )
1046. surfmom
I always wondered what the intensity of those african storms would be like...I am so nuts for a thunderstorm that when a motorcycle started this afternoon for two seconds I got all excited thinking I heard thunder --next hallucinations-- it's been a long time since I have heard rain tapping on my roof

MO's coat is divine
1047. surfmom
Pottery --from your lips to the rain cloud's ears!!!!!
Wow, the GFS is not yet backing down on it's GOMEX storm.... we may have something here. It is a climatologically favored location for development around the beginning of the season.
Surfmom: where are you located?
1050. pottery
MLC, how you do ?
No fines as yet. And they would have a hard time collecting too. Although I could probably sell some organs lol
1051. surfmom
Well I do not want trouble, but I do want rain and a few waves would be sweet too. -
1052. pottery
I'm trying Surfmom, I'm trying......
1048. FLWeatherFreak91 9:39 PM EDT on May 18, 2008
Wow, the GFS is not yet backing down on it's GOMEX storm.... we may have something here. It is a climatologically favored location for development around the beginning of the season.

the 18z GFS actually drops the fantasty storm but develops somewhat of a weak low in the pacific.
1054. surfmom
Sarasota, I live on mainland 1 mile from Siesta Key Beach, I have the best of both worlds as I work east of I75 at the Sarasota Polo Club.
I'd expect more from the EPac right now.
This could be some good news for Tampa:

From the 8:00pm update:

THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS PICKED UP ON A RATHER POTENT PIECE
OF ENERGY WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -10C MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS REACHES THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. THE NAM IS MUCH
MORE BENIGN AND KEEPS RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL FAILS TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR
MONDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS THE FIRST GFS RUN TO SHOW SUCH A HEAVY CONVECTIVE EVENT...I
WILL NOT ADJUST THE SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
1057. Drakoen
It looks like a strong low in the EPAC the GFS 18z is developing getting down to 1000mb on a global model. The convection looks organized with strongest over the area of low pressure.
Knew you were over there someplace, just couldn't quite remember. You have had less rain then we have here in Miami.
Well, we've seen lots of the regulars come around and warming up, getting ready, looking at things; but, it really only gets truly "official" when "littlefish" gets in here imo. As Shen said a few posts back, Littlefish, can spot a swirly bloby thingy, or a lilbugger as lilfish puts it, in a heartbeat. When we get that, one can say season is fully in motion! lol, bbl
1060. hahaguy
I hear all of you about rain, here in Port St Lucie been about 3 weeks with a good shower.
1061. surfmom
yes, we are crispy,I can see how dry we are by watching the water holes out east. The last one is now just damp muck, probably dry by the end of the week. For me it's the air that is so heavy w/dust, pollen etc.,
The central atl wave may increase the prospect for moisture for the southern caribbean in 36-48 hrs time

1063. vortfix
Calm down 23....it's just a model....way out!
1064. pottery
I'm out. Have a safe one everyone.
1065. vortfix
Calm down 23...it's just a model!
good night all
1063. vortfix 9:51 PM EDT on May 18, 2008
Calm down 23....it's just a model....way out!

Iam always lay back my friend just not a big fan of long range models.
1068. surfmom
Been longer then that for us - hahaguy you're near one of my fav beachs on N.hutchinson...remembered after frances they were finding bombs from WW2 by you.
1069. surfmom
g'night all - c u all tomorrow
1070. hahaguy
oh yes surfmom the only good thing frances did. lol
1072. nash28
Off to bed for me as well. Early morning ahead.

'Night all!
1073. hahaguy
vort what is your problem
1074. Drakoen
vort are you serious?
1075. vortfix
I have no problem.
I do have a problem with those that would author under their name the information of others.
1076. nash28
Vort- I was off to bed until I refreshed one last time and saw your post regarding Adrian. What's the deal? Is information out there really anyones "original" material? Now, blatently copying and pasting discussion words and claiming them to be your own is one thing... But taking information that anyone can get and putting your synopsis on it is fine.
Good night W456, Pottery, surfmom and Nash
1078. vortfix
Drakoen....I don't even have to go to that site to know who 23 is quoting.
Oh boy....I forgot sometimes it becomes impossible trying to post here during tropical season as alot of imaturity takes over the blog.You honestly have no idea what your taking about.Iam out hope everyone has a fantastic week.

Adrian
sneaking in as to not disrupt the discussion
1081. Drakoen
1078. vortfix 2:04 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
Drakoen....I don't evven have to go to that site to know who 23 is quoting.

oh... How old are you?
Hey, tigger? You "bouncin'" in to check it all out?
1083. nash28
Ok. I am out as well.... Not gonna get in a pissing match on here...

Call that lessons learned from the past...

See y'all tomorrow.
23,s website is one of the most helpful ive found so far...why all the hate!
hey moon! Looks like I bounced yet another um, let's see, um, word war?
Tigger - good to see you. How have you been?
1088. vortfix
Nash.....my blog is full of copy and paste "official" information.
That is what my viewers want from my blog.

What they do not want is third hand useless information.


Regarding 23....yeah....he is a tropical surfer and drags stuff he picked up elsewhere and drops on WU.
I don't think that garners merit.
I think that is plaigarism
Is this a good time to say hello to everyone ??
good Zoo, and you?
hey island
Evening tigger :~)))
Have been well, keeping busy. Nice to see you Kman. I gues its time to remember how to ignore user.

Kman - have you had any rain there yet?
Oh boy...you learn something new everyday on this blog, LOL...

Call that lessons learned from the past...

Many of us learned that lesson in 05 huh nash!
So Tigger

What's up ?
Great to see ya kman!
Hey, K'man! Anytime is a good time when you're on here, friend! What's up? Got any new takes on the season?
1101. Drakoen
1095. stormdude77 2:11 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
Oh boy...you learn something new everyday on this blog, LOL...


I just learned something new. I'm so disappointed.
Figured I peak in since the oficial season starts in a mere 2 weeks just to see if things are starting to churn...apparently it is full force already, LOL
Hey Kman...you came in at the ''wrong time'', (drama going on in the blog)...
Storm!!! How are ya?

Same ole, K'man
Hi Miami

Boy it has been dry as a bone here for 10 weeks or so. First we had rain in early March, which was odd, and then NO rain in April or May, which is ever more odd !!

I hope a rain cloud does not pass over my pool because the water is so hot in it that it could spin up a depression in my back yard LOL
Adrian:

Don't let him goad you - your contributions are always appreciated, it sounds like someone doesn't like the respect your accorded.
Guess it would be a dust storm!
Hey MLC, 77

How you all doing ??

The season has me nervous. Prolonged drought here now and SST getting hotter by the day in the Caribbean. Very strange with high pressure sitting over this area suppressing convection for some 10 weeks straight !
wundergossip: stormjunkie was alone with my wife for...like....10 minutes last Thursday....
1111. Drakoen
I thought that I knew everyone in here but I guess I don't.
Not sure if anyone saw this...
Disney plans to open a Hurricane Charley Ride.
You can check out this link on the story....
Ironically I was working at Epcot the day Charley hit and that was a ride in itself!
http://www.cfnews13.com/News/Local/2008/5/17/hurricane_charley_featured_in_new_epcot_ride.html
Only about one that was valuable press :~) The rest was really no big deal. Needless to say she was not too happy about that!
Sorry, Drak! I feel that comment I made (#1095) was ''put in the wrong context''.
zoo its not a problem at all actually i find it funny to be honest.Seriously iam gone now gotta get up for work early. Takecare Adrian
she's a mean nwoman sj....
Evneing Folks.....The Bermuda High keeps on inching Westwards at present; if it "sets" anytime soon for the Summer, or already has, then the Northern Caribbean/East Coast Conus will be in for an interesting (please watch carefully)Cape Verde season......So folks, has it set yet or still room for some expansion West?.......Any thoughts?....
Strong MJO pulse coming though I think, K'man. That high may scoot soon!
hey kman ur windows arrive yet install day cant be too far off now
1120. Drakoen
1114. stormdude77 2:19 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
Sorry, Drak! I feel that comment I made (#1091) was ''put in the wrong context''.


You don't have anything to apologize for. I mean I just learned something about someone or something thats all.
boy, the conversations can flip here faster than my 4 year old changes his mind, lol
1122. Drakoen
1121. tiggeriffic 2:22 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
boy, the conversations can flip here faster than my 4 year old changes his mind, lol


LOL!
Disney plans to open a Hurricane Charley Ride.

LOL... Really... In Florida? Sounds like they think that there are people who would like to go through a hurricane, and after 2004-2005...
Hi there Keeper

My windows arrived and were delivered two days ago. Installation begins on Tuesday ( tomorrow is a holiday here ).

Will sleep a lot better come June 1st when the job is done
hey vort have you had a few
hey Drak...how are ya?
MLC

We need rain desperately. The only difference between us and the Sahara is that it is a little greener here, but not by much LOL
k'man, thought next monday was a holiday???
Good evening, all. I see a miniature brawl started while I was away. I'm not getting into those this year. vort is wrong about 23 (23 is a good guy; I know, since we've talked a few times), so I just put him on my ignore list. You all should do the same.
right on time k thats good make sure yur pumps in the house if you have them are working i feel when the gates open there gonna open big
1131. vortfix
Hey Keeper...post a link.
1132. Drakoen
If I catch anyone of you copy and pasting and claiming information as your own. I will go off on you so bad; you wouldn't even think I was the same person. Thats all I have to say.
Tigger

Nope, tomorrow. Do you live in the Caymans ?
Sad to see people starting early with malicious comments. However,those of us who haven't learned to use the + and - buttons already will have no problems figuring them out this season.

Put it another way: If I have a choice between someone who's going to show me websites where I can "see for myself" and someone who's going to show me a "magic 8-ball", I know who I'm going to keep around . . .

Sorry to get out on this sour note, but I, too, must go to work tomorrow, and it's an early one for me . . . [scowling]

G'night, all!
Ahem....Any thoughts on whether the BH is settling down in place for the Summer?
STL,
The ride if you can really call it one is in Innoventions if you are familiar with that that part of Epcot, it has learning exhibits think interactive type, their hope after showing what a Hurricane can do to a house in this case in Punta Gurda, FL will help Home owners prepare for hurricane season and how they are built.

Unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you view it the exhibit might get people to take Hurricanes more seriously and seeing it in 3-D should be interesting.

It will open in August hopefully not the 13th.
Git 'em Drak!!!

Ok peeps, gonna run for now...tired, laundry to do, lunches to make, yadda, yadda, yadda...you all know the rest. Will try to drop in again soon...but for now...keep the peace ya'll, and take care
nope, in the states...but nite to all!
1140. vortfix
Have a nice night Cane addict.
1132. Drakoen 2:26 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
If I catch anyone of you copy and pasting and claiming information as your own. I will go off on you so bad; you wouldn't even think I was the same person. Thats all I have to say.


You'd have EVERY right to do so, I think many of us would do the same thing.
Nite Tigger
post a link to what vort


Rain may be on the way here shortly.
1145. Patrap
No information is Privy to anyone in a Weather Blog.

Folks will be posting TWO's, TWD's and
... FLASH traffic soon nuff like its fresh off their own Hurricane Hunters.

The Blog is for information dissemination and learning.

Egos should be checked at the door.

Anyone can get info via the Worldwide Web,..

Their isnt any inside info...nor forecasts that Matter except the Official NHC issuances or your Local NWS.



Night tigger :~) Really good to see ya around!
1136: I dunno, but I've heard that it could set up in the same location as it did in 2004.

If I catch anyone of you copy and pasting and claiming information as your own. I will go off on you so bad; you wouldn't even think I was the same person. Thats all I have to say.

Seriously?

Hey, that's not a bad thing... Plagiarism is a bad thing. Not that anyone here actually plagairises, just saying!
Good night all
Patrap..you just said what i was thinking!
Well - with Baha's scowl in mind - I'm off for the evening.

Nice to see everyone.
Good Nite All.........
Good night, stormdude77.

You to, Just try to keep it cool in here, You will learn after a while, It is not worth the drama. I don't have a problem with you, Most bloggers probably don't either, Just cool it bud. Night!

I didn't until he started picking on Adrian when Adrian didn't do a damn thing.
1154. Drakoen
Yes I am serious. Posting the TWO, TWD, whatever is fine. But information from uncommon sources should be linked and no one should consider it their own information.
One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.

I prefer to wait for something to develop and then participate in the discussion about where it's likely to go, will it develop etc.

It seems to me that the blog has become too competitive and, at times, far too technical.

Remember, this is a hobby. Nothing more, nothing less. If a hobby is going to get you bent out of shape try something else
Patrap....amen and amen.....we all post stuff...often I'll pull stuff off the wires...if it begins with "Reuters" or "AP'...please assume I didn't write it....
Cane, isn't it bedtime, man! You've already tried to start some stuff with changing folks' names, etc. Just post "your" stuff - the rest will work itself out without all the sanctimony and patronizing. Until you've been here awhile and have a clearer picture of things, humility is generally the best protocol.

Good night! See ya tomorrow!
1158. Patrap
I never assume anything...Im just a Guy in a blog.
It seems to me that the blog has become too competitive and, at times, far too technical.

Remember, this is a hobby. Nothing more, nothing less. If a hobby is going to get you bent out of shape try something else


Well said, kman. I couldn't agree more.
1160. Drakoen
1155. kmanislander 2:37 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.


Yea I have been noticing that too. Thats why I might not do a tropical blog anymore and instead focus on the Southeast region of the U.S.A. Then post what I think about invest, and cyclones here. I don't know why everyone feels they need to have their own tropical blog.
pre seaaon syndome kman i figure
I apparently didn't read the first part of kman's post good enough, so I'll comment on it now that I have read it good:

One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.

I agree about the competing thing. You can be assured that my blogs aren't meant to compete with anyone elses, though; I just blog because I absolutely LOVE the weather!
1155 & 1159

I could not agree more. While some competition is good and everyone knows I love healthy debate. This is not a popularity contest. It is a place that we can all learn from. Even if we can not learn about weather, I hope we can at least all learn something about how to interact constructively.
I never assume anything...Im just a Guy in a blog.

Can I get in your boat pat :~)
Well, I think I will turn in for tonight.

Hope you all have a great week. Will be back soon.

Bye for now
gang, how much warmer will the current TCPH in the carribean sea get from this point on forth?

Depends. Each year has different amounts of TCHP. But with the strong subsidence in the Carribean at the present time, as well as the very warm temperatures, it will not take long for ocean temperatures to warm up, and thus for TCHP to increase. That's only in the near-term, though; the long-term is impossible to predict.

Well, I think I will turn in for tonight.

Hope you all have a great week. Will be back soon.

Bye for now


Good night, kman. Have a good one!
Even if we can not learn about weather, I hope we can at least all learn something about how to interact constructively.

Amen.
1157. moonlightcowboy 2:38 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
Cane, isn't it bedtime, man! You've already tried to start some stuff with changing folks' names, etc. Just post "your" stuff - the rest will work itself out without all the sanctimony and patronizing. Until you've been here awhile and have a clearer picture of things, humility is generally the best protocol.

Good night! See ya tomorrow


Look MLC! I did not TRY to start stuff with ANYONE today. I simply SUGGESTED that Hurricane10 change his name to help out the blog. So theres NO chance that folks will get confused between the Hurricane23, Hurricane24 and others. Similar handles after awhile can become confusing. So please dont tell me i was TRYING to start stuff, It just came out the wrong way to the guy and he took it offensive i guess, your stating what you said like my intention was to cause trouble. Also don't worry about my bedtime, I got that fully organized :)! And i have been on the blog ALOT longer then you may think, Anyway im not mad or anything at you MLC, I actually am glad your concerned about what i do on the blog, Making sure i stay away from the Drama, Thanks for looking out for me bud! Anyway night all! (MLC it's now my bed time :-)
KM

No aspersions cast at anyone, and certainly not at you. But, one can't help but notice the proliferation of long, detailed weather blogs.
I am not saying anything is wrong with that, just that it may inadvertently be creating an element of competitivenes that no one really intended to happen.

Like everything else this will sort itself out. Because the season has not started it is inevitable that the discussion will focus around trying to predict what will come as well as to hunt down every nugget of information that may point one way or another.

In a few weeks the discussion will shift from what may be coming to how systems are or are not developing, where they going, will they intensify etc . All in good fun if we each do not take ourselves too seriously.

Have a good sleep, K'man!
So long MLC

I am out now
Again, very well said, kman. You are definitely right about too many details in the blogs on here. I actually thought of having my tropical blogs this year cut down significantly in terms of detail, because some of my blogs were way too long last year. And as you said, extremely detailed blogs, especially if numerous people do them, could create a sense of competitiveness, and that isn't good, since we know what that can lead to.
I'm out for now as well.

Have a good one, kman, mlc, SJ, and JFV. Later!

I look foward to chatting with all of you here during the season.
You too, CaneAddict! Don't wanna miss anybody.
later kman
1178. Drakoen
1176. KoritheMan 3:04 AM GMT on May 19, 2008
You too, CaneAddict! Don't wanna miss anybody.


You managed to miss me lol.
Study says global warming not worsening hurricanes By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
Sun May 18, 7:50 PM ET



WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject.



Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.

In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.

What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.

He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.

He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming."

The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.

The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbors — anywhere west of Puerto Rico — will drop by 30 percent because of wind factors.

The biggest storms — those with winds of more than 110 mph — would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent. Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27 percent.

It's not all good news from Knutson's study, however. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson's study says.

And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength. Some other scientists criticized his computer model.

MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, while praising Knutson as a scientist, called his conclusion "demonstrably wrong" based on a computer model that doesn't look properly at storms.

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Knutson's computer model is poor at assessing tropical weather and "fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity."

Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said it is not just the number of hurricanes "that matter, it is also the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues."

Knutson acknowledges weaknesses in his computer model and said it primarily gives a coarse overview, not an accurate picture on individual storms and storm strength. He said the latest model doesn't produce storms surpassing 112 mph.

But NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea, who wasn't part of this study, praised Knutson's work as "very consistent with what's being said all along."

"I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny," Landsea said.

Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic and a Colorado State University forecast predicts about a 50 percent more active than normal storm season this year. NOAA puts out its own seasonal forecast on May 22.

In a normal year about 10 named storms form. Six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. On average, about five hurricanes hit the United States every three years
Night km

kman, you are hitting on all cylinders tonight! Fine job!
Thank you, TAZ!
ZZZZZZZ
1183. vortfix
Ah...nobody cares Cane Addict.
welcome moon


night all under the wether but geting better day by day
I read some interesting things here today...for example, Adrian's explanation of the Bermuda High's effects on storms hitting the continental US (Hurricane23), also global warming will deter hurricane formation because ocean heating will increase shear which breaks up storm systems...So keep chatting everyone, even though there really is nothing to talk about yet except speculation! Best Regards to All...Chicklit!
good sleep taz you will feel better by morn.
Oh, man, TAZ - hope you're feeling better soon! We've got to have your input, dude! The season is upon us!!!
also global warming will deter hurricane formation because ocean heating will increase shear which breaks up storm systems

Of course, any storms that find good conditions will be able to get stronger (refer to these maps, this was also mentioned in that study, even saying that the increase in intensity was underestimated). Really, this all goes back to global warming making storms stronger, but not more numerous (this is nothing really new either, just another study that backs this up).
Also, I think 2007 gives us a good idea of exactly what they are talking about; most of the storms were weak and short-lived but the few that found good conditions exploded. I am even basing my thoughts for this year's overall activity (number of storms, hurricanes, majors, intensities) on the last couple years. With regards to the last, the CFS is continuing to forecast high shear, even increasing it:



2008 season = 2006-2007 redux (steering patterns aside)
1190. vortfix
Anyone can forecast that nonsense Michael.
It is just a forecast.
iam out early day tomorrow wait tomorrow is already here later all
Have a good sleep, Keeper!
thanks mlc
1194. vortfix
See ya Keeeper!
1195. vortfix
I"m firing up the golf cart....With camera in hand.
Have a great night y'all!
I think I may have missed the link last night and I'm too tired to try to look back 15 pages...can someone please send me the link to the CMC, GFS etc runs? I am in San Diego on vacation and I don't have my favorites on this computer...

Thanks and no we can't ban SJ - I love him. Nash too. Storm W and everyone...no one is banned unless they say "it's written in stone or you need to leave the bar right now..."

It is good to see that nothing has changed. :) I don't post much but it is nice to see the boys are in fine shape this year. :) Nite all.
Nite golf? Oh, man that's fun! Kinda like "army golf" but so much more fun!

Have a good sleep, Vort!
Speaking of SW, has anyone heard from him lately? Little concerned.
Evening mel :~) and thanks!

That said, this is what you are looking for. It was designed for when you are away from your pc and it makes a great navigational portal even when you are at home!
Hey SJ - Thank you!!!!!

Any idea when the heat here is going to break?

I am dying of heat...

And I would never let you be banned...

Hey SJ = no one has heard from Storm? Hm...do you have his phone number?
No mel no phone # and I have not heard anyone else mention the fact that he is mia.

Going to try posting something in Nash's blog. Apparently they are not to far apart.
As boring as tonight is there looks to be an area of lower pressure on the front moving into central fla - you guys in the Tampa area could see some rain tonight.
Appears from the GFS that at the tail end of an old frontal that we might get some clear liquid gold in Tampa......I DON'T SEE ANYTHING TROPICAL YET!
Hello JFlorida......
The nighttime storm stuff really has been kicking around the GOM.

Hello tampa.
Its growing fast. even on Radar.
Ya the seabreaze summer pattern has not set up yet. Need the humidity which is almost here and the bermuda high in place which is not yet where it is in the summer.
Wow we could use the rain.....my water bill is going to be horrible next month from the lawn.
It looks more scary on this. I would love a thunderstorm now.
It appears south of the Tampa tho..ouch.
I don't see anything severe. The tops are less than 30000.
its trying - perhaps the one behind it too will bring you rain.
Yea i was just being dramatic.

They just had another 5.1 aftershock in china - poor people.
It appears a good chance south of Tampa will get a better chance of higher precp.
Those are some strong aftershocks still happening........my guess is a big one will be happening somewhere else soon.......when stress is relieved in one place, stress is displaced somewhere else. Just my Opinion.
2 large lakes have formed from mudd slides and large rivers are emptying into the lakes and are filling very fast. Sounds like more grief coming.
Just keeps getting worse in China. And, we haven't heard the latest bad news out of Myanmar yet, either, I don't think. Monsoon's coming, more misery on top of misery, still there.
I'm surprised people haven't started their, "OMG the world is ending" stuff because of these recent events. This would seem as a good time as ever
The GFS develops the Caribbean low near the 200 hour mark but has it competing for energy with a system in the EPC.
The ECMWF has a system in the EPAC but nothing in the Atlantic.

GFS still continues to develop that system
BETWEEN 144-166 HOURS
GFS 06z out 204 hours:
Halong is missing Japan I bet they're happy
It looks like as soon as Halong dies were going to have a week or two of no storms cause I don't see any forming.
The GFS has picked up the Caribbean system again. In the latest run it is showing it less sheared and with greater convection than it was during the previous few runs.

If this scenerio plays it, the SW Caribbean system will have to compete for energy with whatever the ECMWF/GFS is predicting will try to get going in the Eastern Pacific at around the same time frame.

I'd like to see the ECMWF at 12z, though.
1155. kmanislander 10:37 PM AST on May 18, 2008
One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.

I prefer to wait for something to develop and then participate in the discussion about where it's likely to go, will it develop etc.


If you notice, Dr. Master's blog is becoming too volatile. Disagreements are turning into discussions like what went on last night. Its very hard for some lurker to find information through all of that noise. I am not saying that this blog is like that all the time, but hurricane season is approaching and with all this competitiveness on the Dr's blog its best persons have there own blog and so persons can just go there to get the information of there is noise on this blog.
1229. IKE
456...it's always been that way on this blog...always will be. There's plenty of other links on WU to find out information on storms. They'll always be disagreements on here...and it'll get worse when the season really starts ramping up.
1230. vortfix
I have my own blog young man.
I will not tolerate plagiarism on Dr. Masters blog.
And that needs to end right now before the season starts.
1231. IKE
Looks like the latest 06Z GFS, has one system forming in the eastern PAC and another one forming in the SW Caribbean. It's delayed the SW Caribbean one heading north by a couple of more days.
Look at the GFS now! We may be dealing with more than HYPE than we first thought due to consistansy.

The big problem that I have found on this blog during hurricane season is that it moves so fast. I try to read the material, but, when someone posts something even 10 minutes before I log on, I get lost trying to read the back posts that everyone is talking about. This blog flies. I just wish I could read and hit refresh a bit faster.
1235. nash28
Well... Latest GFS deepens that system.
1237. nash28
Morning MLC! Looks like the GFS wants to hang on to that Low.
Yep we maybe dealing with TS Arthur.
G'morning, Nash! Yep, it does. It may very well do it, too; but, that's a popular spot for a low to hang out there. We'll see soon, heh?

Photobucket
1240. nash28
Still just a long range forecast. Having said that, if it were to indeed verify, there will be ALOT of ecstatic people dancing in the rain!
1241. nash28
Yep. The BOC and areas surrounding it is where we usually see the early season activity.
Congrats Dr.Masters for being quoted on pg.130 in the June Issue of Maxim on Surviving Hurricanes.
Good Monday morning all! Wasn't around yesterday as I had work the entire afternoon. Hope I didn't miss anything exciting here.

Regarding the GFS model, it starting to seem more likely that we may have an actual system that will develop in the SW Caribbean and move northward towards Florida, but this remains more than one week out. Still just taking the wait-and-see approach, but I may start mentioning this possible system in my Tropical Weather Discussion tomorrow if the GFS remains on this system.

By the way, great observation and imagery MLC. Could be the origin of the forecasted development to take place in the region. There will definitely be some increasing moisture in the Caribbean over the next week, that much is for sure from the GFS model, which presents good news for everyone as the entire Caribbean and Florida needs the rainfall.

There was something else that I wanted to note from the GFS model, although it will likely be a non-factor. It appears the GFS starts developing surface lows with the ITCZ convection over the coming weeks. This may, in turn, cause our focus to expand beyond the Caribbean next week.
Nash, take a look at the B/A's high in this graphic. (Couldn't make the loop work). Looks to be drifting further east. Thanks, cchs.

can someone send me the link to the latest GFS run
Lets just say that this GFS model does indeed become true, there is something that it does suggests that worries me. Since this would be a slow-moving tropical system, the GFS predicts a major rain event and with the soil being so dry in Central and Southern Florida, the soil may not be able to handle all the rainfall and flooding could turn out to become a major problem with this system. Sure, I would like to see this drought eradicated in one shot, but maybe that is not the best thing as it could create even worse problems. And, anytime you have flooding in warm, tropical environments, you always have another major problem that comes along for the ride; mosquitos. Based upon some quick calculations from the model (my math may be incorrect this morning), the GFS predicts somewhere between 10 to 25 inches of rainfall depending upon location.
we go on a cruise on june 1st this better not screw it up
BAD GFS
1248. nash28
It is drifting EWD MLC.
Good Morning..........I posted the question late last evening, but, there was some bickering going on and I never got some opinions so here we go; The Azores/Bermuda high has been inching further Westward and seems to be poised right now for a direct Cape Verde "train" into the Northern Caribbean, towards Southern Bahamas/US East Coast (apparently substantiating the discussions/early forecasts for the past several weeks that the US East Coast will be at an increased risk this season)....So, my question is; Has the high "set" in place for the Summer yet, or, is some more ridging to the West possible (notwithstanding the normal flucuations once we get to the CV season)....Any thoughts?
I think the high might just stay in place for the summer
WWB, you look at that graphic in 1244, the high seems to be moving eastwards imo. Nash can prolly answer your ridging question; but, still, with a weak high, the periphery will be susceptible for storms to ride any weakness. And, so cyclogenesis location is gonna be more paramount.
it appears to me that the sst temps for the GOM havent changed on here in a few months. the southern part of the GOM is already in the 80's. also the loop current hasn't changed on this site either. has anybody else noticed this? i hope they fix it soon. i really enjoy looking at the sst temps on here.
1253. IKE
1234. ajcamsmom2 6:32 AM CDT on May 19, 2008
The big problem that I have found on this blog during hurricane season is that it moves so fast. I try to read the material, but, when someone posts something even 10 minutes before I log on, I get lost trying to read the back posts that everyone is talking about. This blog flies. I just wish I could read and hit refresh a bit faster


It does move fast whenever there are systems threatening someone and it is hard to keep up with then.
1251. moonlightcowboy 8:23 AM EDT on May 19, 2008
WWB, you look at that graphic in 1244, the high seems to be moving eastwards imo. Nash can prolly answer your ridging question; but, still, with a weak high, the periphery will be susceptible for storms to ride any weakness. And, so cyclogenesis location is gonna be more paramount.


Thanks and agreed (I missed your post as I "hid" the graphic posts when I logged on to downsize the margins);
1255. nash28
Gotta run for a bit guys. Work beckons...
1256. Patrap



National Hurricane Preparedness Week Link


History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.
Hey, Pat. Good post!
1259. Patrap
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
1260. IKE
1% of the deaths are from surge? Only 1%?
Pat, I would've guessed "flooding" - but, certainly wouldn't have guessed the percentage was that high. Wow! No doubt, we learn something everyday.
1262. Patrap
That was only thru 1999.
Katrina changed that Number .
1263. IKE
That's what I was thinking...it cut off at 1999.
1264. Patrap
Thus the deletion.

Worldwide...Surge takes more Lives than all others.
Sadly thats true here now.

But Im glad most caught the Link....

Shows how ONE storm can bias the numbers.
Pat, wasn't the post for the US though, too? Not worldwide.
1266. Patrap
The Post was Just for the US from 7O-99.
1268. Patrap
Ghosts..everything is a Ghost untill it appears on a MAp..in real time. Period.

HoG, I hope it does makes a tropical system that brings all of FL some much needed wet stuff!
1272. Patrap
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
1273. nash28
As of the 06z run, the GFS shows the system approaching Tampa on June 4th.
1275. surfmom
Got my wish - much to my surprise!!! the thunderstorm at 4:00am this morning was delightful- SRQ got a good soaking (though we need much more) The thunder and lightening were terrific --the sound of rain pounding on the roof joyful --I did not mind being woken up at all,(2 cats,the dog and me snuggled on the couch - hubby won't share the bed LOL) Just hoping more of it comes my way today. My whole energy level is UP!! I feel re-charged.



I think Pottery may have had a direct connection in our request for rain yesterday --not to be a pig but I hope we get more ALL DAY!
1276. surfmom
surf buddy in the phillipines,san juan informed me electricity has been down for two days - but nothing serious to worry about. Surfers are waiting for the winds to lay down and the ocean to calm a bit.
In reference to the discussed low in the SW Caribbean, Shear is very hospitable to development in the area. Not sure what the shear forecast is in the GOM, pretty nasty right now.
1279. nash28
The GFS was pretty accurate in calling for cyclogenesis last year.
1281. nash28
Yeah, right now shear in the GOMEX is on the order of 50-80kts.
Good Morning everyone. It appears something might form in the BOC.
1283. surfmom
June 4th sounds OK for me too! Hope this does come to pass - June is when they like to fertilize and seed the pastures, after last years drought and this one, the fields for horses grazing are in deplorable condition. So bring on the rain...I promise not to complain when it comes.

In fact, my hubby is hoping for an active year...huricanes terrify my mom aqnd he's hoping she won't come and visit this summer....can't say I disagree w/him too much --just asking for a reprieve when my young buck is at Seacamp in the Fl. Keys this summer
1285. nash28
Barry was a bone dry system. Remember all of that dry air wrapped around the circulation? That thing didn't even bring us rain. Just a little wind, mostly on the back side of the system.
1286. surfmom
OK guys - off to domestics for a while bbl, have a good day!
Hi all !

I wouldn't pay attention to this kind of long-range forecasts, refered to tropical cyclone development. It is known forecast models have some difficulties to "digest" convective structures.
1288. Patrap
I see the GFS..and I know the blip is there. But its a blip..a image.
We all need to be cautious of ramping up a Blip.

Discussing a model trend is fine and always a thing of banter.


1289. surfmom
Oh yes, one last comment....Barry was a teaser, got all worked up for NADA - if we get something,goodness it better bring some rain
1290. nash28
Even if it is only a low pressure system, fine. Just bring the wet stuff.
Nash i live in the Westchase area and we got little rain last nite....maybe some this afternoon with the heating of day.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:48 AM PDT on June 07, 2006

How is that Mexico, a much poorer country than our own, suffered only four deaths from Hurricane Wilma last year? Recall that Wilma hit the most heavily populated tourist area of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane, and sat over Cancun for three days. And Hurricane Emily hit Mexico twice, first as a Category 4 at Cozumel, then as a Category 3 near Texas. But no one died in Emily! The difference is that the government of Mexico made a determined effort to evacuate those at risk, and provided transportation. In the U.S., a totally inadequate effort was made...
i know JP doesn't need any rain in Orlando.....lol
1298. nash28
Hey Tampa. I got about a spit worth. I was getting dressed for work around 5am and I heard a little drizzle. That was about it.
Pat....agree about the ghosts...but here in Charleston, ghosts are an important part of the tourist economy...it's the only place I know of where having a haunted house ADDS value....
Morning all :~)

I see the GFS is back on the GOM system. Initialization frame looks to still be 210 or so hours out. Still a long time, but guess we will see.
1296. jphurricane2006 9:25 AM AST on May 19, 2008
precursor to the event 456? lol


nope...that system on the long-range GFS intializes more than a week from today. My eyes can only see as far 168 hrs. Beyond that distance...its a little blury and fill with mirages...lol
Looks like the Pacific south of Panama could have something forming soon possibly looking at 456's satellite just posted.
Just a question for Patrap. Could you define your window in considering the GFS model ouput? In other words, how far out in time, in your mind, can the GFS model go with some honorable accuracy?
1306. nash28
Not to step on Pat's toes, but I'll answer CCHS. Basically, one week is about as far out as you wanna go with accuracy. 168 hrs. If it is still showing this system by Wednesday, then we may have something.
Hey, If the CMC model has not picked up anything yet, it can't be anything developing......LMAO
1308. nash28
If I am not mistaken, the CMC also nailed Barry several days out. It was the one that showed the anticyclone forming over Barry, allowing it to survive in that ridiculous wind shear.
1310. Patrap
There is not any one Better Model out of the "Crown 4"
Consensus is the key.

Always.

Nash, where's StormW? Haven't seen him peek in here lately!
1312. nash28
The Euro as of the 00z run only shows development in the EPAC at the 240hr mark.
1307. TampaSpin

Now you youngens listen to this feller. He knows what he's talking about. ROFL
Actually at 144hours the CMC does have low pressure just on South American looking to head into the South Central Carrib.
1315. nash28
Yeah JP. It nailed the 2nd storm of the season and then was out to lunch the rest of the year.
1316. nash28
I'm not sure MLC. I gonna try calling him on my lunch break to make sure he's ok. He hasn't updated his blog in two weeks.
Shen....lmao
1319. Patrap
What the Models all are showing is that the threshold for development is upon us.
Any good area,in sufficient SST's can and will probably form into a Low,at some time before June 1.
My only venture into forecasting..LOL
1320. nash28
Way to stick your neck out there pat:-)

JK:-)
1321. nash28
LOL Pat!!!!
Pat you mean the Season is almost here......lol OMG.
1323. Patrap
Im a Turtle..nash
1324. Patrap
Since Im not a Met.
Should I put a disclaimer?
I know everyone who does a Tropical Forecast Blog Here does.

Snicker..coff,hack,,wheeez..Faint..KLUNK
Pat turtles usually get to the line first in forcasting......lol
1327. Patrap
..Im being resuscitated..

Wait one.
Is it not also fair to say that Mother Nature may not necessarily recognize June 1 as a hard and certain date????
1329. Patrap
West Carb is a Likely area ..and the Southern GOM.,..BOC.

All we need is a TS.

Allison did the Nasty in H-town first week of June 2001.

A wet wild one can bring the impact.
144hour CMC
1307 & 1313

I actually took that as a positive for potential development :~)
1332. nash28
Momma Nature does not care about dates.
1333. Patrap
I know nash.
You should have seen My Junior Prom..
OK...that's funny...I don't care who you are....
1335. nash28
ROFLMAO!!!!

I love Pat's zingers! Quick wit!
1336. Patrap
I gotta get a Cymbal.
1337. nash28
Pat will be here all week.
Please tip your waitress and try the veal! I hear it's delicious!
As usual, conditions are ripening for tropical development, and, we will be looking at the models for the next several weeks (both long-range and short-term)to see which of them are correct, or, which ones are less accurate.....Either way, rain will be very welcome in the SE and I am hoping for a few early season tropical storms for Florida to help with the drought and overall water levels.....
1340. Patrap
On a sad note.
I lost a friend at 2am Sun Morn.
Charles Kimble..a Good man.
Done in by Cancer.Diagnosed on May 8th. Gone 10 days later.

What they missed at the Hospital 3 months ago,as a torn rotator Cuff..Was Stage 4 Lung Cancer that metastasized thru his Body.
He went on and didnt go Back to the doc till the Ambulance came May 8th and took him to Hospice.
Dont be tough folks. Pain is a signal.
Now ..hes just gone.
If ya smoke..Quit.
If you dont.Dont start.
I'm not a fan of models. It's not that I don't like them. It's just that I haven't used them, fooled around with them much, really. I've used SJ's tutorials and I peak at them, so I can use them some, but don't rely on them.

I've just always looked at the sats and the conditions, primarily. Got nothing against them either. A few things I've picked up on them is like with the GFDL, it takes a bit for it to initialize and get going, kind of confused in the early on with a storm. And, then, of course there's the BAM's, which I like to follow: shallow, deep and medium-as they all use different critieria. They're a tool in the box like the rest of 'em.
1316. nash28 9:41 AM AST on May 19, 2008
I'm not sure MLC. I gonna try calling him on my lunch break to make sure he's ok. He hasn't updated his blog in two weeks.


I was also wondering where he is.
Pat, so sorry to hear of the loss of your friend.
1344. nash28
I am very sorry to hear that Pat.
My condolences.
1340. Patrap 9:58 AM AST on May 19, 2008

sorry to hear...My deepest condolences
Dr M has a New blog up

I am off, see y'all later
and to echo Pat's serious note...I spent the winter dealing with having a melanoma removed from my face...several surgeries, etc...if I'd dealt with it when I first noticed a change, it would have been a simple little matter...listen to your body...my sympathies for your loss....
1340. Patrap 9:58 AM EDT on May 19, 2008
On a sad note.
I lost a friend at 2am Sun Morn.
Charles Kimble..a Good man.
Done in by Cancer.Diagnosed on May 8th. Gone 10 days later.

What they missed at the Hospital 3 months ago,as a torn rotator Cuff..Was Stage 4 Lung Cancer that metastasized thru his Body.
He went on and didnt go Back to the doc till the Ambulance came May 8th and took him to Hospice.
Dont be tough folks. Pain is a signal.
Now ..hes just gone.
If ya smoke..Quit.
If you dont.Dont start.


I'm so sorry to hear about that. Charles must have been a vital person in your life. Hope that you and your family are doing well, all things considered. You send a great message to everyone on these blogs; no matter how strong one thinks they may be, you can never live life on your own; we all need help, even when we don't think so. Send my condolences to your family and his for me.
1349. surfmom
Thought I got a note saying StormW was going out of town for a week but...... it seems longer then that, I'd been missing him him and thought that's why he seemed away for so long.
1350. surfmom
Patrap - sorry about the loss, I lost a few peers myself this year (3 in my age group) - really hits home when you turn 50 and people start passing on --I called it the "culling of the herd" -- kinda scary when you have kids to finish raising --just reinforces my drive to play hard as often as possible- and to try and remember not to complain or whine
1351. JRRP
1352. JRRP
strong convection over african coast
1353. JRRP
what part of the caribbean is in most risk this season?????