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Dean charges towards Jamaica; Erin returns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007

Hurricane Dean continues to pound Haiti and the Dominican Republic with high winds and heavy rain, and is headed for a very close encounter with Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Early this morning, winds at Barahona on the southernmost point of land of the Dominican Republic hit 52 mph, gusting to 104 mph. Sustained hurricane force winds are expected to remain well south of both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but a major spiral band has brought extremely heavy rain to the south portion of both countries.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Dean taken at 7:17am EDT Sunday August 19. Think of this as a weather radar in space--the red areas show where the most intense thunderstorms in the spiral bands and eyewall are occurring. Note the incomplete double ring of echoes around the dark blue eye. Dean has two eyewalls, concentric around each other.

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island. Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.

The same story holds true for the Cayman Islands. Grand Cayman, the southernmost of the islands, it at greatest risk. If Dean passes more than 30 miles south of the island, they will miss seeing the outer eyewall of Dean and will fare relatively well. It's going to be a close call, but it appears that both Jamaica and the Cayman will miss seeing the eyewall of Dean.

Mexico and Texas
Mexico will not be so lucky, and will receive a double beating. Dean is expected to make landfall twice, once near the tourist havens of Cozumel, and then again south of the Texas border. Mexico has to hope that the steering currents will be kind and take Dean south of the most heavily populated regions of the Yucatan. Hurricane Emily of 2005 grazed the southern tip of Cozumel Island as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, and Dean may follow a similar path. Mexicans can take heart in the fact that Emily caused no deaths in Mexico, and damage was surprisingly light. Most of the tourist regions were relatively unaffected by Emily--it was Wilma two months later that really punished the Mexican Riviera.

As for Texas, it looks right now like only extreme southern Texas near Brownsville needs to worry about Dean. Hurricane Emily hit 90 miles south of Brownsville as a Category 3 hurricane in 2005, and I expect a similar story will unfold for Dean. Emily brought sustained winds of about 40 mph to extreme south Texas, a 4-5 foot storm surge, eight tornadoes, and heavy rains. Damage was minor.

Links to follow:
Radar in Piln, Cuba.
Radar from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Morphed microwave animation.
Kingston, Jamaica observations.
Montego Bay, Jamaica observations.
Grand Cayman observations.

After Dean, what next?
There is an area of disturbed weather that has formed off the northeast coast of South America, 400 miles southest of Barbados. Wind shear is 20-25 knots in this region, and will stay too high to allow develoment for at least the next two days. None of the reliable computer models are suggesting anything will develop over the coming week. The ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is relatively quiet.

Erin returns
The remains of Tropical Storm Erin re-intensified this morning into a major storm that slammed central Oklahoma with rains up to seven inches and wind gusts of tropical storm strength. The radar presentation of Erin's remains (Figure 2) looks remarkable tropical storm-like. I've saved a long animation of this "landcane". Numerous flood watches, flood warnings, and severe thunderstorm warnings have been posted for Oklahoma today.


Figure 2. The remains of Tropical Storm Erin re-intensified into a remarkably tropical storm-like cyclone today.

Typhoon Sepat
Typhoon Sepat has moved inland over mainland China, after hitting as a Category 1 storm. Earlier, Sepat hit Taiwan as a Category 3 typhoon. No deaths occurred on Taiwan, but at least 15 died in China--11 of them in a tornado spawned by the typhoon.

I'll have a full update Monday morning, and may have a short update later today.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Dean South coast Antigua
Hurricane Dean South coast Antigua

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I knew Erin wasn't moving south. don't remember who said that, but NOT!
guys one question,,, if the rdge formed so fast could it also dissipate??? i am asking please don't jump me i am trying to learn here..thankyoufor any answer
JFLORIDA,

On every projected track for Dean I think the NHC has done a great job in locating where Dean is and where to start the new track.

everytime,lol. ;-)
Anyone have a clue when the ridge is supposed to back off the southeast us? I live in Atlanta and I'm sick of the intense heat
1005. snowboy
the NHC has done very well with this storm, as has Jamaica.. Original NHC track had Dean running right over the length of the island, and as we can see that has not come to pass. This is great news!
He's growing another arm to the NW.
Posted By: JFLORIDA at 9:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

extreme236 and since the ridge didn't build in till last night you look a fool or are at least grossly misrepresenting as the entire state of Texas was preparing for a disaster - as was Louisiana.


?
Mrgreen,

which islands are u trying to give a break again? the only way for Dean to get out of the caribbean to the north is to hit an island - Cuba, The Bahamas - u get the drift.

Once it's in the caribbean, nary a storm gets out without affecting SOMEBODY.
For future reference....keep in mind the innacurate alarmist forecast from Accuweather that as usual aimed the cyclone towards the place of greatest calamity....first SFla, then Houston.
Does it look to anyone that Dean has taken a little wobble north towards the south coast of the island? Please be advised I'm not an open-water-wobble-watcher, but a wobble this close to land can have serious consequences I take it?
Fl30258713 Yes, they do a good job mind you, but the purpose of tis blog is to offer a space for questions and input on tropical systems.

People that constantly deride and scold do neither and hinder the process. You will note that not one of them says or offers anything of value to the discussion that I can remember.

I personally know what the models and the NHC are saying. That isn't enough.

jphurricane2006 well then why is he saying this stuff now?, you cant play favorites or gang up on people for speaking whats on their mind.
medicroc I see it too
extreme236

If I lived anywhere along the Texas coast I would be packed up ready to go and in here trying to figure out when or if I should leave.

Dean still has a long way to go before it is gone. New variables are always in the path.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best is always the smartest plan.
1015. C2News
Posted By: medicroc at 5:32 PM EDT on August 19, 2007.
Does it look to anyone that Dean has taken a little wobble north towards the south coast of the island? Please be advised I'm not an open-water-wobble-watcher, but a wobble this close to land can have serious consequences I take it?


Yes, look at this satellite...LINK
Well, it looks like it's Mexico and Texas is going to get lucky.
Hmm, can't say I agree JFlorida... I'm pretty sure that any preparations Texas and/or Louisiana took were not due to a post of 236.

The probability for tropical storm force winds as far up as the Texas/Louisiana border was greater than 10% for a while yesterday, so preparation is prudent and can't really be blamed on a blogger LoL.

We are more useful to individual people than governments, which should always utilize the official forecast as their tool to prepare.
why are ppl wishing this things tracks more North then the tracking points.. are they wanting the US land mass to be back in the thick of things.. If this thing goes North and misses the Yucatan we here in Texas are in a heap load of trouble.. I want this thing to hit the least populated areas... but Texas coast in densely populated.. let this thing go where its suppose to.. Mexico.
I agree that the North turn is coming late tonight. look for it to brush the yucatan penninsula and the watch out.


It is gonna happen be ready !!!
So JFlorida I dont understand what you are telling me. Are you saying im a fool for believing that the ridge will hold dean southward and keep it away from most of the united states?
Posted By: medicroc at 9:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Does it look to anyone that Dean has taken a little wobble north towards the south coast of the island? Please be advised I'm not an open-water-wobble-watcher, but a wobble this close to land can have serious consequences I take it?
.
.Normally not a good idea to be fixated on wobbles...they tend to even out. But wobbles when a cyclone is this close to a strike are critically important.
As I said this morning, NHC has nailed this forcast and I would not expect it to change much over the next 48 hours....I would guess that the next major issue for Dean will be how much the Yucatan will weaken the storm before is crosses into the Bay of Campeche......BTW, so grateful that the storm is passing to the South of Jamaica (although it looks like the eyewall is going to graze the southernmost part of the island)...
I was just going to post that C2News, I have noticed a little wobble to the north too whish will bring the eyewall closer and closer to Jamiaca. It still could miss it just to the south though.
As the ridge did not build until late last night you can respect other peoples input, at least they were thinking.

Im not putting up with clicks or friend chat clubs this year, be respectful of other posters.
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Medicroc - open-water-wobble-watcher. LOL!!!
Here's some hydrological data for Canadian River in Oklahoma City. Two people died from flood related incidents yesterday.

df
Posted By: JFLORIDA at 9:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

As the ridge did not build until late last night you can respect other peoples input, at least they were thinking


I have respected people's opinions but it is easy to tell when people are wishcasting and when people are actually logically saying it will go north
jphurricane2006 ok JP prove it - I want links to the older runs, I want to SEE proof not the runs now.
"Open Water Wobble Watcher"

That sounds like some sort of beautiful tropical bird, or some dirty old man watching girls on southbeach.
Heck of a wobble
1034. CFL
Who thinks the wave mentioned in the TWO will develop?
The posts i responded to were wishcasting posts from people saying it would all of a sudden jump north and go towards florida. now i think even you could agree that is unlikely
looks like we could get our next invest pretty soon.....i guess ill have to eat my words about a slow season lol
well i see the wave in the TWO developing. since chantal developed and strengthened in conditions that werent too favorable i think it could happen
Lets see the model runs from Thursday, just three days ago. I want proof. Models have been "on" so lets see it. Throw in the 5 day NHC cone while you are at it.
Hang on southern tip of Jamaica... you're about to experience eye wall I think:

Cuba Radar

Radar is a few minutes old, so they could already be in it.
Insmet.cu radar shows no change in the track of Dean. The current track is wnw with no major change either west or north over the last three hours. It does mean Dean continues to approach the South coast without touching it's eye to land but it also means that the damaging outer eyewall wind bands will hit the southernmost shoreline where the majority of the island's fishing fleet resides.
1043. tillou
I brought this up earlier but few responded.

I don't think the high pressure off the coast of Florida is not that impressive. The northern edge of it seems to be moving northward. I bring this up because the only thing from keeping it over Florida is the Jet streem that is over the Great Lakes and it seems to be moving out to sea.

Another thing I see is that the ULH over western TX and New Mexico is firmly in place. It'll be instristing to see what the ULL over the GOM will interact with it within the next 24 hrs becuase that ULL has slowed down its westward movement the past 3 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

I think we'll have a very clear picture as to where Dean is going once it gets to the 85 degree line.
yep, Kingfisher, OK is battling floods from all that running off from north of them.
The alliterative was unintentional(well, almost)
1046. bahama
The live radar out of Pilon Cuba it looks like the outer eye wall will pass 30 miles south of Jamaica. I say outer because on live radar it looks like it has two eye walls Jamaica got lucky.
I will tell you all where Dean will make landfall once Dean is at 100 W
1048. pt100
On the radio: mayor of Port More, past hour wind picked up, only 1 person evacuated, water on the roads, some people did not go to shelters and are calling now for evacuation, but busses have a hard time driving
1051. Xion
21:15 UTC satellite frame out.

Still has a NW wobble movement it seems. :(
Dang it, on a different computer and forgot it was not set to view newest first.

Anyone else having problems with the GHCC?
The only concern that I have a this point (which is contrary to the current high pressure ridging and model guidance) as the strength of Dean, after moves well past Jamaica, and whether it will try to "thread the needle" between Cuban and the Yucatan as many of these storms have been know to do (an almost erie self-preservation type instinct)...If the strong ridging holds, it will be "forced" across the Yucatan peninsula but it will do so constantly fighting to make its way north.....
as far as the models are concerned there will be no threading the needle. the latest gfs (just coming out) maintains an extremely southern track into the yucatan
1057. AndyN
OK, let's multi task and start analyzing the wave near the leeward islands NHC is thinking will develop and give our takes on how the steering currents will influence its track should it develop and how soon it is our next investigation?.......
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

... T.D. ERIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINS ARE MOSTLY LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MOISTURE FROM ERIN CONTINUES TO FEED
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TOWARD A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST...ABOUT 10
MILES...16KM...SOUTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA...AND ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KILOMETERS... NORTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 18
MPH...16 KT...29 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...22 KT...40 KM/HR...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
AROUND 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.



did you notice this they are calling it TD Erin instead of reminents of Erin like they have been so we have another TD to talk about
the NHC and the models have done a great job with the forecast on Dean - jp

- I want the models, Ive said the NHC did ok, with adjustments. I want to see the models you are talking about.
1060. Xion
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
it will be interesting to see where it goes. anywhere from mexico to southern texas should watch closely. this storm has been very unpredictable at least in forecasting intensity
Yeah...Threading the needle into the Yucatan channel in this case would mean the difference between a TX landfall and the currently forcast Mexico landfall...
that TWO kinda of confused me. so are they saying slow development possible with the low pressure or the part of the wave in the northern part of the wave. because shear is fairly high over the low pressure
Aha! Xion, the CMC has a slight pulse if that system NE Leewards develops...
a few days ago when Dean was in the Atlantic they were off and then the GFS shifted south, the other models follwed and have been on the ball since

Why didn't you say that in the first place. And how is it ok to ridicule others, who are not even mets, who also take time to understand the workings of a particular storm?
BTW...Just got back home and have not watched TV all day.....Does TWC have someone on Jamaica reporting live?......
if i lived in texas i wouldn`t stop watching this thing. in 99 floyd was heading right for us in central florida. we evacuated to the west coast of florida spent 7 hours getting there in traffic and we got there floyd turned north. so you never can say never
actually..................this storm has very predictable....projected path wise
TRACK MARK
18,79 C5/H/D
18.5,80
19.3,81 C4/H/D
19.6,82
20,83
21,85
22,86
STOP......
yes the path has been more predictable although the intensity has been a little unpredictable though
A problem the Jamaica S coast also has is the directional speed of Dean (20MPH west). The winds will be doing their Cat 4 thing plus the direction of the storm will unfortunately help enhance the wind on that side of the storm.
something tells me we will wake up in the morning to an invest northeast of the leeward islands
1076. AndyN
It is almost as if NHC left out a word, or with the insertion of "however" they thought it would not be confusing to people looking outside in on the outlook.
1078. Spoon
Jamaica live on TWC now
jp i am in palm bay. i learned to never trust a projected path after that one. also projected path of andrew moved pretty close to landfall also.
Weather, I tyhink Mike Seiddel (sp?) is on Jamaica but is not out and about.
If that area NE of the Leewards were to development, it would have to be watched closely because of the current location of the "high" and steering curents in that part of the Atlantic right now.....
1082. ebzz
Posted By: extreme236 at 5:59 PM EDT on August 19, 2007.
something tells me we will wake up in the morning to an invest northeast of the leeward islands

Hopefully not but whatever happens, happens.
what are the guidelines for a system to be declared an invest? just curious if the wave NE of the leeward islands could become one soon
A problem the Jamaica S coast also has is the directional speed of Dean (20MPH west). The winds will be doing their Cat 4 thing plus the direction of the storm will unfortunately help enhance the wind on that side of the storm.

They already account for the forward speed... that means that while the northern side has 145 mph winds, the southern side has only 105 mph winds and the circulation itself has 125 mph winds relative to its motion. That is why the advisory says maximum sustained winds - the highest winds anywhere in the storm (this also means that even if you are hit directly by the worse side, it is VERY unlikely that you would experiece the "maximum sustained winds"; heck, you hardly ever even see measured gusts close to the MSW).
mr. blowstardi is predicting that to develop so that means it probably won`t
1086. AndyN
CBS evening news just interviewed Mike..The weather looked as you can imagine ...Horrible.....He said power is out throughout the entire country....I believe the gov't shut it off.....
That was a cool graphic loop JP. I'm happy the NHC has been accurate three days out with the consistency.

Most of the projections being discussed over the last several days have been discussion about tracks way beyond three days out.

Like JFLORIDA said in here we are kicking around ideas and not competing. I think the point he was making is that folks don't have to be scolded or run into the dirt because they were wrong on a projection.

(not referring to you, you have always been level headed that I have seen)

I still don't by the Yucatan scenario though. I'm one that think Dean will still track NW and get caught on the east side of the ULL.

I also know I'm not a MET and lack much knowledge related to Meteorology but that hasn't stopped my broken clock from being right at least twice a day. ;-)
can I have a link that shows the system you guys are talking about northeast of the windward islands
Amazing that Kingston got sustained winds of 81 mph at this hour. And maybe the "prayer" worked as Dr. Masters had mentioned in the blog. The eye never really went over land like Gilbert did in 1988 and I believe it was a Cat 3 at that time.
1090. 7544
looks like dean is moving nw now
1091. jetpixx
Just a funny little note about the 'landcane'...I always wondered why the college in Tulsa, Okla. called themselves the 'Golden Hurricane'. Now, I know...
1092. Spoon
fox news live from Jamacia now
BBL all..............
1094. AndyN
Twinkster: Here it is: Link
seidel is in Montego bay....
No wonder people keep asking about Texas, the reporter from CBS news in the caymans said ".... and after the Yucatan its on to Texas"
Well it seems as if Dean is doing what its supposed to do. Any more word on the area the CMC is develping behind Dean
Link to Windward storm

Link
Hi, all. Fox news just reported Bush declared preemptive state of emergency in TX just in case.
The area NE of the Leewards is getting sheared apart.. No way that develops... the NHC doesnt even have that area in their "outlook"
Did anyone else feel as strongly as I did that the 5:00 PM pressure reading of 930 mb was as bogus as sin? - Jo

Posted By: sflhurricane at 10:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

The area NE of the Leewards is getting sheared apart.. No way that develops... the NHC doesnt even have that area in their "outlook"


Read the outlook again. Yeah they do. read the second part. also, shear tendency shows decreasing shear in the area overtime
Being on South Padre Island near Brownsville, we are happy for the southward movement of Dean.

Trying to find out the cities and towns that might be struck on Wednesday if the track holds up.

Tampico on the GOM side?
No wonder people keep asking about Texas, the reporter from CBS news in the caymans said ".... and after the Yucatan its on to Texas"

Man, we gotta keep watching, even through the commercials ;)
Fun link for model plots using Google Earth/Google Maps

Link
TX is fine, we have had the preemptive emrgency declaration since yesterday. Fox news just a few days behind as normal.
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

Sure hope they've got this right. I wouldn't want to see this mistake again.
1112. AndyN
I guess I am reading this wrong: HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
am reading this wrong:
1113. IKE
Speaking of the area NE of the islands...found this on accuweather....

"Another feature worth watching is a tropical wave that is along 56 west south of 25 north. Satellite imagery is not showing any sign of organization right now, except for a small circulation to the east of Trinidad. It is unlikely that any development in this area would be able to last long, for it would track over the area of the Caribbean churned up by Dean. However, computer model information suggest that the northern part of this wave might become an organized tropical system early next week."
aggie, I would watch but I have to watch my blood pressure. I happened to be watching CNN the other day during Flossie. The reporter actually said that the storm was a "Huge waste of time". He seemed disgusted that it missed the Island.
1115. 7544
what about the area at 21 north isnt this where the cmc starts to form the sf goast hurricane ?
Did anyone else feel as strongly as I did that the 5:00 PM pressure reading of 930 mb was as bogus as sin? - Jo

No. The T#s and Dvorak have been on a downward trend since yesterday very early morning.

digialt dvorak
Frankly, I have no problem with the wishcasters, wobble-watchers, etc. etc. North, South, East, West, back to Africa...I don't care, as this is the right forum to discuss whatever is on your mind regarding tropical activity.

What pisses me off right now, though, is that CNN and FOX are sensationalizing the situation and keep mentioning the possibility of a Texas landfall. Heck, anything is possible...earthquake, meteor, Hillary, whatever.

But they back this NW 'out of the cone event' with NOTHING meteorologically speaking. Nada. Ratings and sensationalizing it and/or personalizing a news evento into a 'story' frustrates me.

At least TWC and local Houston weather forecasters bring in the models, discuss transitioning H's and L's, and steering currents and likelihood, etc. Not Fox and CNN...just throw it against the wall, maybe something will stick...or, eyeballs will 'stick around'.

As a Texan, it bothers me that some of my brethren that are less weather-focused could get the wrong signal about this storm, overreact, etc...and then next time, underreact, etc...

If the govt wants the public to take the appropriate response at the appropriate times, then they need to cut the junk out in the mass media, I suppose.

Anyway, off my soapbox. Kudos thus far to NHC.



South Padre, not really out of the woods yet...
1119. Zero7
static free link to Power 106 fm being relayed by WRBN.

Link
this is wave # 1


SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.



this is wave # 2

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY


--------------

from the TWO at 5:30

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

this time all of it but i was point out the two wave that they said in the two


i think wave # 1 we sould watch
According to the radar, it looks like the eyewall is now over the very southern point of the island.
that CNN meteorologist hasnt said anything about an out of the cone track...dont know what your talking about
Oh god Deans eye is so close to Jamaica .... wow , lets hope there no wobbles to the north...
there actually the same wave taz, just different parts
From the current sat> image, the winds and dread sea conditions will be blowing straight into Kingston Harbour, and the city. It must be pandemonium there now, I'm thinking of the people there with fear.........
I love how accuweather says they have "computer model information" when whoever it was just looked at the CMC and said "OH CRAP!". While it could develop I think we're all jumping the gun on this one.
As a veteran storm-centric lurker, I know you know weather, and I appreciate it. I know good journalism. The Jamaican broadcasters are doing a great job. They are keeping the island calm. They are receiving and passing on true assistance. So, please, listen with the same intelligence you use in tracking. And, yes, I have family in southwest Jamaica and Brownsville, so I've been lurking this storm for four days and will lurk on. And keep on trackin Thanks.
Posted By: alegoguy at 10:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

I love how accuweather says they have "computer model information" when whoever it was just looked at the CMC and said "OH CRAP!". While it could develop I think we're all jumping the gun on this one.


Even the nhc supports the possibility of development.
1131. calder
must say good job to nhc, the forecast has been remarkably on track despite what people on here have been saying for the last few days
Oh god Deans eye is so close to Jamaica .... wow , lets hope there no wobbles to the north...

Yea I think by deans surroundings WNW jog is still very possible. Strengthening too possibly soon.
According to Shoutcast, WRBN is the station right now with the 75th most listeners. (379) It is ahead of 181.fm Power 181, a popular Internet hit music station.
May be a stupid question, but why isn't the GFDL the same on both of these links?

href="http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif" target="_blank">
href="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_model.gif
well if the wave NE of the Leeward islands becomes any better organized and develops a low pressure, i definatly think this could become an invest if that happens
Hello ,, PtOConnor.
Good to meet you, I'm your long lost cousin, in Trinidad.
Best wishes, Rory OConnor.
What pisses me off right now, though, is that CNN and FOX are sensationalizing the situation and keep mentioning the possibility of a Texas landfall.

Somewhere, sonehow, that became if it makes more people watch so they can charge more from the cable companies and more for ad time. Sad, really. Why do you think you only hear about horrible storms, extinctions, all of the worst case scenarios when it comes to GW? You never hear about the research from the other side of the aisle. A frenzy is what they think they need to stay competitive, even if they have to cause the frenzy with slanted "reporting".
1140. Xion
From the current sat> image, the winds and dread sea conditions will be blowing straight into Kingston Harbour, and the city. It must be pandemonium there now, I'm thinking of the people there with fear.........

Based on Live Fox News feeds from the city, it is only Cat 1 winds or so.

It honestly doesn't look like 110 mph winds hit it.
The NHC forecast has been extremely accurate for the last 5 days. Still, that's no guarantee that this cyclone will continue down the skinny line. That is the best forecast but all in the cone should be alert. I would especially encourage those in Texas to be alert. This storm could become historically strong and large, especially avoiding the interaction with Jamaica. From what I've observed, these strong deep storms do go where they want.
Posted By: PtOConnorTXfisherman at 5:15 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.If the govt wants the public to take the appropriate response at the appropriate times, then they need to cut the junk out in the mass media, I suppose.

That is exactly what needs to happen...otherwise all the Emergency Management world is for naught..
Hello ,, PtOConnor.
Good to meet you, I'm your long lost cousin, in Trinidad.
Best wishes, Rory OConnor.


Port O'Connor, Texas, Matagorda Bay, Central TX coast...

unless, of course, you have that bank account that you need to transfer wire funds out of and into mine because of local govt officials, as per your 82 emails last week...
i am looking at the radar in pilon cuba and it appears that dean's inner eyewall is collapsing and the outer wall is becoming dominent. perhaps the ERC is over
1146. Xion
Jamaica radio just had a guy describing the situation as "devastating," I am guessing he is on the south side of the island.
www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Shows the northern outer eyewall of Dean hitting southernmost point of island.
hurricanes are dangerous.. but its not the end of the world.. katrina was an exception.. because of failure of the levy.. oh and building the city out into the marshes(cheap land).. we humans are far more evil than a hurricane.
22:15 IR

x
Thanks atmoaggie, as that's what I was looking for, though I still don't see how that's possible as Dean has obviously turned stronger, convection-wise, since the original statement of "930 mb" even earlier today. It just doesn't seem to make visual sense to me. Thanks...

And doesn't the FSU-5 still have Dean going into So. Texas? I don't think it will, but obviously everyone just has to keep watching and paying attention.

Jo
There were no levies in Mississippi.
Dont get me wrong the NHC has done well but this has been a straight line storm, that has deviated very little from a straight line path, As a matter of fact the models actually came into agreement on that same line. That doesn't happen much. I don't know if you can make accurate judgments on predicted path in this situation.
Posted By: PtOConnorTXfisherman at 5:15 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.If the govt wants the public to take the appropriate response at the appropriate times, then they need to cut the junk out in the mass media, I suppose.

That is exactly what needs to happen...otherwise all the Emergency Management world is for naught..


Maybe all of Houston should voluntarily evacuate and then when the storm actually stays within the cone, have a class-action suit against CNN/Disney for ~500 million for gas/hotel/food expenses caused by their sesational reporting. Money is the only thing that will make the networks think about responsibility.
1155. AndyN
Tampico Mexico is in the bullseye for Dean. Here is a little about Tampico: Link
1156. IKE
Met on Fox news..."it's still a threat to the United States"......

She has no idea what the heck she's talking about, saying there isn't a good handle on where it's going. What a joke!

It's suppose to cross the Mexican coast at least 200-300 miles south of Brownsville.
1157. 7544
new bands are exploding to the north over dean . if dean dosent turn due west soon western cuba will be getting some bad stuff
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS A MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AS COMPUTER MODELS PREDICTED...THIS LOW HAS BEEN MOVING WWD AHEAD OF HURRICANE DEAN...

So now we can call it a MULL.



1160. calder
Jflorida - why not? all the models are in consensus still (actually even more), the steering currents seem set... I'd be far more confident of the nhc track now, rather than before
true none in miss.. louisiana/miss/alabama are probably the worst spots in the united states for a landfalling hurricane.. shallow waters offshore.. low land for miles & miles inland.. and we build right on the gulf.. :\
So now we can call it a MULL.

Mulva?
1163. scla08
Is it just me or has the ull in the gulf slowed a little bit? Link
I live 150 miles inland...People have no idea just how far inland the detestation was.
Some of you talk as if no where in the history of Hurricane tracking has there ever been a change in the track of a storm. Should the people on the Texas Gulf Coast just turn off there TV's and not worry unless it starts raining and the wind starts blowing.
can some one Please Please give me a update on mike from TWC how is he doing out there so far is he ok ????
1167. Xion
Is it just me or has the ull in the gulf slowed a little bit?

As long as it doesn't stop. o_O
Hey Port O'Connor, my dad used to dock his 50' snapper boat up there. If I had the Miss Texas today, I'd be there right now!
I get the track calder, but for a while the models varied wildly and the track was directly down the center. Curvature would have offered a more intricate situation I think.

We will see if Dr M posts on it. Its an unusual situation statistically, i.e. outside norm values I think.
Posted By: whipster at 10:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Ouch. Never saw that comin'

thanks JP is mike geting hit hard with 80 mph winds right now?
AMEN PT'Oconnor...I'm in Corpus Christi and couldn't agree more. That kind of crap is what make people take the real forecasts for granted. I think TX residents at this point need to merely watch each advisory and make sure this thing doesn't make a turn...I don't think it's going to either. I thought GFDL was picking up on something earlier, but w/ this system, it's been all over the map... It's had a 600 mile+ adjustment over the last day and half or so. That ULL has really jacked w/ the models...Good thing the NHC is being conservative w/ their guidence track...I'll continue to watch and I'm ready if it makes the turn, but I'm not anticipating it to do so...
18Z GFS
Track
1176. 7544
is mull just as bad as ull
1177. russm1
The only chance this thing has of hitting Texas is to go across Mexico, through the Pacific, across Africa and reemerge back in the Atlantic then on to the gulf.

The NHC has had this one pegged almost exactly for days and the models aren't going to be moving dramatically now as it gets closer to the mainland.
The wishcasters need to save themselves the grief and just deal with the fact that Dean is headed for Mexico and not the CONUS.
My suggestion would be to listen to the NHC and the pro mets and learn why Dean has progressed the way it has and why the projected paths are what they are.
That would be much more interesting to me than to wishcast this storm to the north.
IMHO
1178. AndyN
Taz, Mike said he has a bunker to get in at the resort in Montego Bay and he is 300 ft above the ocean. He is on the North Side of Jamaica.
1179. Xion
thanks JP is mike geting hit hard with 80 mph winds right now?

He's in Montego Bay, they still have tropical storm force winds I believe as they are at the northwest side of the island.
Yeah, S'lady! Cat 3 winds over 120 miles inland, over two hours away. Cat 1 wind to the north part of the state.

Now, who'd a thunk it...building a house that far inland was gonna get ripped up by a hurricane!
OK I CANT STAND IT HAVR TO SAY IT.

As for the reports of CNN and FOX- well I dont know what to say. As for the computers well they misses Allison- We in Houston were told no way then it would move on- well history there. I really dont care if the NHC's computer plots run this thing back to Africa. IF THIS storm gets in the center ogf the GOM NO ONE should say- I checked the computer models this AM we are safe. Heck EVERYONE should be careful. Everyone should keep an open eye and EVERYOU should NEVER put your lives in the hands of a computer. Keep an eye out and watch at least twice a day. These things can go where THEY WANT if NHC happens to have the blessing of a correct landfall wonderful. But can we praise them AFTER the fact. This id to dangerous to assume ANYTHING!
1182. KRL
Live radio station feed streaming updates from Jamaica.

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/prestream-16.html
1183. AndyN
That's WAY South!!! 18Z GFS
thanks evere one
When is the next recon penetration scheduled?
Met on Fox news..."it's still a threat to the United States"......

She has no idea what the heck she's talking about, saying there isn't a good handle on where it's going. What a joke!

It's suppose to cross the Mexican coast at least 200-300 miles south of Brownsville.



Haha ike ... i watched that ,. she sounded so ignorant
One can see in this Sat. loop Here that Dean is moving in a more northern movement than the projected path...
EAN is jogging north... at the other end of island - watch for a wobble NORTH of the projected path...
1189. IKE
Posted By: AndyN at 5:40 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.
That's WAY South!!! 18Z GFS


That hot chick/met on FOX news needs to get her act together. The NHC has had this one pegged from the beginning...her saying the track of Dean has been a continuing debate is just not true.
Wow...all models wayyyyyyyyyyyy south...texas might not even get a drop of rain from it....this time the ridge acted as a force field for the US....
1191. Spoon
Radio has callers reporting gunshots in Mountain View area...
Posted By: LSU at 10:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

shut up



haha.. thats all?
at least you could have challenged the thought.. like the miss comments.. which were very true.
1193. IKE
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 5:42 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.
Met on Fox news..."it's still a threat to the United States"......

She has no idea what the heck she's talking about, saying there isn't a good handle on where it's going. What a joke!

It's suppose to cross the Mexican coast at least 200-300 miles south of Brownsville.


Haha ike ... i watched that ,. she sounded so ignorant


Wasn't she awful and Geraldo going along with her.
Ol' Fidel must have heard we are watching his radar, it updates every 5 minutes now instead of 15 mins.
seeing all these models so south is rather odd.. i just hope they are right.. or it could be a HUGE swing north..
Sorry about all the miss spelled words I just woke up and eyes are NOT awake. But I am sure you get the point. JUST keep your eyes open. To many lives can be harmed if you dont. Heck The Navy had Rita wrong-NHC had her wrong. YOU just dont know until close to land. Now I have to have my coffee!!!! OFF MY SOAPBOX
Mike Seidel is doing okay (nevermind some rain in his eyes). Those curious can check out his 22:00 UTC video at TWC website.
guysplease may i have the cuba sat immages??

thankyou
1200. 7544
ok whos next in line to feel dean
will it be western cuba ?
Hi all...someone gave me this site 2 days ago and have been lurking around ever since...lol. Seems like an interesting bunch of people in here.

Silly (?) question: why do several of you say that dean just wont follow the ULL (or MULL now) northwest into the GOM? it appears to be moving NW towards Corpus.......

...live near the coast in Tx and sure dont want Dean coming my way....

thanks :)
Now its on to Big Jim on the Yucatan......he loves this stuff.....
I never understood this line of thinking. First, it isn't evil to build anywhere, poor foresight perhaps.

Second, then humans should not build near rivers (MNPS, )where bridges fall down, on faults (Calif), close to tornado alleys (IA-KS-OK-TX), by snow and ice (Canada), or near fire hazards (Rocky Mtn states).

Essentially humans have no where to live.

hurricanes are dangerous.. but its not the end of the world.. katrina was an exception.. because of failure of the levy.. oh and building the city out into the marshes(cheap land).. we humans are far more evil than a hurricane.
1204. Xion
Radio has callers reporting gunshots in Mountain View area...

Silly mortals, you can't shoot a hurricane! :P

Why would there be gunshots? A little too soon for looting to start don't you think? There is a hurricane going on.
1205. scla08
Look.. I'm not being a "wishcaster" as it probably will hit Mexico, but on the latest atlantic water vapor loop Link, it looks like the ull center has slowed and from the nhc advisory, Dean has increased forward speed. What does this mean and is it a possibility that the forecast track could be changed if the ull continues on a slower westard path?
Everyone needs to calm down. There will be a lot more activity this season for all the wiscasters. The NHC are the experts and they have had Dean pegged all along. That is their job and they have all the experts on board. Oh and also, the GFDL is also in accord with the rest. Relax TX. I would gas up now though because this sort of thing is just what the oil companies want so they can stick it to the people. Stay safe Jamaca, they are getting pounded now. I expect massive damage there regretfully eventhough the eye appears to be passing a bit south.
is that thing off of affrica going to form
Cuba radar

Link
1209. lakeguy
That hot chick/met on FOX news needs to get her act together. The NHC has had this one pegged from the beginning...her saying the track of Dean has been a continuing debate is just not true.

media is there to make money, not offer up the boring truth.
Posted By: AndyN at 10:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

That's WAY South!!! 18Z GFS


Thats what its been showing the last 24 hours.
1211. russm1
Posted By: whipster at 10:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Ol' Fidel must have heard we are watching his radar, it updates every 5 minutes now instead of 15 mins.


I had to call in a few favors for that. Now if I could just get him to send me some 12 year old Havana Club and some cigars I'd have it made..lol
1212. o22sail
a ground report from a local amateur radio operator just indicated a barometric pressure
of 960.0 millibars at his station 20 mi. north of kingston, Jamaica.
If anyone is interested.
If you have the radio for it, you can listen to the Hurricane watch net on 14.325 mhz. (usb)
It gathers reports from stations in the affected area and reports them to the NHC.
1213. russm1
Posted By: Xion at 10:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Radio has callers reporting gunshots in Mountain View area...

Silly mortals, you can't shoot a hurricane! :P


LOL..I just spit my coke all over the puter!!
1214. Spoon
Why would there be gunshots? A little too soon for looting to start don't you think? There is a hurricane going on.

Certainly my guess is that there is aluminum or something flopping around in the wind and people are mistaking that sound.

So far from the radio callers, sounds like trees are going down but no serious structural damage yet.
Yeah Ike, she said the nhc hasnt really had a good handle with the storm , in fact they have done great with the storm ... so she needs to get her facts straight
Sorry if this is a repeat post...tried once and didnt see it...
I respect animal instinct...we just had 10 birds in a tree in our front yard where we rarely see 1 or 2...what is that chance that ULL moves faster than what it will take to keep Dean south of Houston? Is this going to be another Rita with a late shift to the north?
1217. Xion
LOL..I just spit my coke all over the puter!!

Oops...sorry about that. :p :D
Can he thread this needle? if so he better start turning soon.

x
1219. IKE
Joe Bastardi just spoke the truth on FOX news on Dean...saying it won't affect the US.

He did mention the wave in the Atlantic heading toward south Florida by the end of the week and saying it could possibly develop.
White-out conditions in Kingston on FOX a couple minutes ago.
I think most of us have dealt with a hurricane making a late turn and putting us where we don't want to be!
Redrobin,

All I can say is thank you... You are right about that, we all need to just watch this thing and be ready for what ever path it takes....
Now I know they have a better handle of this storm but things do change and it does have a mind of its own and will go where it wants to go....

Taco :0)
1223. russm1
Posted By: Pedibrainpa at 10:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.
Is this going to be another Rita with a late shift to the north?

Dean is on his way to get Tacos and Corona not Bar-B-Q and Lone Star......
Bastardi said some interesting things. he gave dean a 1 in 5 chance of reaching wilma's record. that is a pretty good chance
Too soon for looting??? never.

Supplies are limited ..Early bird gets the worm...
Joe Bastardi just spoke the truth on FOX news on Dean...saying it won't affect the US.

He did mention the wave in the Atlantic heading toward south Florida by the end of the week and saying it could possibly develop.


I just saw that on Fox with Joe Bastardi, and then Geraldo seemed to push the issue about it hitting Texas. What's up with that?
Hey there MLC,
Just goes that when there is something to watch I get stuck working OT....lol
Not even going to try to keep up here, just browsing on the quick and want to know if they bought Taz's ticket yet.....
Anywho, think were just seeing the start.

Who said "POOF"...lol
Posted By: taco2me61 at 5:56 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.

Redrobin,

All I can say is thank you... You are right about that, we all need to just watch this thing and be ready for what ever path it takes....
Now I know they have a better handle of this storm but things do change and it does have a mind of its own and will go where it wants to go....

THANK YOU
hurricanes are dangerous.. but its not the end of the world.. katrina was an exception.. because of failure of the levy.. oh and building the city out into the marshes(cheap land).. we humans are far more evil than a hurricane.

So I guess we shouldn't build way up in Oklahoma either by your logic? I am interested to know exactly where do you suggest people live?
Ike I agree with Bastardi this time. That was a good segment on CNN with Jeraldo. We all need to start looking at the E coast of FL by early to mid week. There is a large area of interest where something can move to a more favorable area near FL very soon and the steering currents are not looking good for FL.
could someone please post the link to the model developing this wave
are hurricane has been moveing N for the last 3 hrs or so if it dos not turn W soon i think a MX could be out and all mode runs will be worth less then i think if it dos not turn W and keep going N i think cuba the keys of FL and the W coast of FL will get hit by a strong cat 4 or 5 storm if this storm dos not start turning back to the W
1234. centex
Dean location, idtensity and straight lining like Gilber shown here. Only difference NHC kept forcasting turn to north.


Gilbert 1988
1235. CJ5
Erin is quite impressive...if it was over water it would be a TS...very impressive.

Dean heading S and into MX, not good for them but good for TX.
if the models are correct.. it should start turning due W
Dean is on his way to get Tacos and Corona not Bar-B-Q and Lone Star...

I hope so, and I hope he takes it with bad cheese on his tacoes and rock salt on those dang Coronas!!

Thoughts and prayers with those in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands!
Geraldo,
We talking the same Geraldo that's still looking for Al capones treasure?
If it is....Man needs a shave...lol
HOOOLY S&TH!... LOOK THE SIZE!!!!!

Link


This will be big tomorrow... a monster!
the ULL is why are hurricane is moveing N now then W
TAZMANIAN..YOU MAKE ALL FLORIDA WISHCASTERS PROUD.
1242. sngalla
Miamiweather Link
Fox news girl just said the northern eyewall is scraping southern Texas. lol.
1244. ebzz
I have a question about the wave coming off Africa that might move towards Florida.. Is the ULL too far west to affect it by the time it gets here (if it does)?
i think people should start taking the CMC models a tad more seriously...hahahahaha

does anyone thing that the cluster of storms really is going to bomb out into a hurricane and strike fl?!
Question. IF Dean does go north, even still making a mexico landfall, but close to Texas, will the Texas coast have to deal with storm surge the way Al. and Miss did with Katrina?
I've been listening on and off to several of the Jamaican radio stations and I'm humbled by their selflessness. Most callers are more concerned for their "brothers and sisters" on Cayman than themselves. Instead of calling in to announce a perception that they are experiencing the worst, they are calling in with a wish that Dean turns away from Cayman ...even if that means landfall on Jamaica.
1248. HCW
Texas watch out
CORPUS CHRISTI NWS

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY)...THE KEY TO WHETHER HURRICANE DEAN EVER TURNS
TO THE RIGHT AFTER ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE THE
LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF THE 500HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CYCLONE.
HURRICANE MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CLUSTER WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOLLOWING SUIT. LATEST GFS
ALSO FAVORING THIS SOLUTION. THE WRF/NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN TURNING
HURRICANCE DEAN TO THE RIGHT TOWARD BROWNSVILLE...AND THIS IS DUE TO
A SLOWER/MORE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE 500HPA ANTICYCLONE WHICH MAY
BE DUE TO POOR INITIAL LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS GRIDDED ELEMENTS WHICH SHOW CHANCE POPS AND SCEC WINDS/SCA
HIGH SWELLS
114 mph sustained, gusts to 138 last report from Kingston
...her saying the track of Dean has been a continuing debate is just not true.


ROFL Well, it sure has been around here!
i think all mode runs now are worth less right now this look how far N it got in in 3 hrs time if we dont see a W turn here soon then it will keep going N in to the hot water of the gulf of mx

Link
HOOOLY S&TH!... LOOK THE SIZE!!!!!

Link

This will be big tomorrow... a monster!<


Dean is certainly strutting his stuff.
If he was a Fish Storm....Definatly a keeper.
thepainkiller

Lmao i heard her =D haha


ALSO dont know if anyone mentioned this but the northern part of the eye and eyewall of dean just barely hit that extremem southern part of jamaica
Is the NHC using Gilbert's track as their forecast? "Looks possible to me Bob, Let's use it"
Now watch all the models start jumping north again after everyone said it wasn't gonna hit Texas...lol
Anybody think the visible satallite is looking more and more impressive the past few hours??
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:07 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

i think all mode runs now are worth less right now this look how far N it got in in 3 hrs time if we dont see a W turn here soon then it will keep going N in to the hot water of the gulf of mx


seems to be chugging along WNW to me.
The CMC system that could hit Florida as a major Hurricane in a week is NOT the wave just off of Africa, it is the growing glob of storms ENE of Puerto Rico right now.
Mobilebayrat,
The answer is yes.... With the way the storm is coming in, the storm surge will be high from Corpus Christy Tx to Brownsville Tx
mgreen91 yes its moveing N right now and that would take in in to the hot waters of the gulf of mx if that keeps up
1264. sngalla
The wave is around 20 and 55 that the CMC develops.
1265. russm1
Posted By: SWFLdrob at 11:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

seems to be chugging along WNW to me.


Thats what I'm seeing....
i no why its going N it the ULL in the gulf that it is pulling it N
PTOConnor. No, sorry that wasnt me !! I get the emails too.
But if ever you do feel the need to transfer funds, I'll send my # right away. LOLLOL
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

mgreen91 yes its moveing N right now and that would take in in to the hot waters of the gulf of mx if that keeps up
Is taz right about this?
RussM1. Where are you from?
dean isnt going north, he is going WNW
weather4me re I expect massive damage there regretfully eventhough the eye appears to be passing a bit south.


Surely with the eye a bit South that is worse, as Kingston will thus get the front right quadrant, which is supposed to be the strongest winds, no?
1272. CFL
TWC says Dean is tied for the 4th strongest eastern carribean hurricane on record
114 sustained in Kingston?! That's cat. 3 winds. Aren't they a bit far from the center for that? It saddens me to think what the people on the southern tip of the island are going through.
1274. 7544
i think the ull is stalling now hmmmm
Looks to me it is moving WNW, just little wobbles NW. It has been doing that all day. Staying right on the NHC forecast track to me
once dean begins to move away from jamaica in a few hours the HH's might find some strengthening
Posted By: russm1 at 11:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Posted By: SWFLdrob at 11:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

seems to be chugging along WNW to me.


Thats what I'm seeing....
Post the link you are looking at, no time for games
Posted By: mgreen91 at 11:11 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

mgreen91 yes its moveing N right now and that would take in in to the hot waters of the gulf of mx if that keeps up
Is taz right about this?

my answer is no. Seems to be chugging along the NHC points to me. wobbles a bit more north every once in a while, but is then answered with a more due west wobble...hence the average, around WNW.
sorry for the miss up evere one its going WNW i hop this dos not keep going or it will be in the gulf of mx here soon then mode runs that was point it to mx will be worth less
And now for a word to our sponsor...
Note to advertisers: I'm getting really tired of that cruel Rosie photo. How about something positive for a change?

Just getting back home.
Is the pressure rising a sign of weakening or just a pause as Dean passes near and over a bit of land?
Moving north? That isn't what I see. I see it moving WNW. It seems to be moving along the NHC track. Taz, do you have something that shows the north turn/direction you reference?
here ya go mg

Link
Posted By: CFL at 11:12 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

TWC says Dean is tied for the 4th strongest eastern carribean hurricane on record


They showed 924 mb on their graphic but I think it was actually down to 918 mb at one point last night, not sure if that was east of 70W, though.
1285. russh46
Don't forget that the NHC re-positions the track as Dean passes them whether to the north or south of the projected line.
well with all the TCHP in the area in a few hours dean could start to strengthen when it begins to move a bit farther away
1287. jake436
Posted By: taco2me61 at 5:09 PM CST on August 19, 2007.

Mobilebayrat,
The answer is yes.... With the way the storm is coming in, the storm surge will be high from Corpus Christy Tx to Brownsville Tx



Not exactly...Of course it would depend on how far south of the border it hit. But the main thing is...and I would think that someone with MobileBay in their screenname would know this...is that the MS and Mobile Bay areas are more susceptible to surge than anywhere else along the Gulf Coast...due to the shallow shelf. Also, Mobile Bay is situated so that the mouth of it acts as a funnel for northward moving surge...which is what Katrina brought. Also, Dean...as impressive as he is...isn't nearly the physical size of Katrina...so the affected area won't be as large. Of course, there is plenty of time for Dean to grow...both in strength and size...but it's unlikely he will attain the physical size of Katrina.
The northern eyewall went onshore thats why kingston is seeing cat 3 winds
AAARRGHH! Doesn't continual "jogging" to one direction indicate that a turn towards the direction of the jog is possible? example: Rita was forecasted to track to the Middle Texas Coast while moving wnw then came a period of jogging to the nw then eventually a turn to the nw and into TX/LA border. Also, I agree that the NHC has had this storm "pegged" for a while now and that is what bothers me because it is rare for the NHC to keep these scwewy wittle wabbits under thier gun for so long..... Just a thought :(
1290. russm1
Posted By: katadman at 11:11 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

RussM1. Where are you from?


Fort Worth, Tx.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html
Link
Do ANY of these models show a northward turn?
(The answer is NO...)
The wind and heavy seas will be going directly into Kingston city and the harbour., now, ,and for the past hour or so.
This is a bad one for Jamaica. Not Irie atall at all.
Looking at the currents, water vapor images, etc. - I would be more apt to argue that Dean is going to go south of the existing track vs. a northern turn. It looks to me like Dean is going to have to fight hard to make it to the GOM after crossing the Yucatan.
1294. Xion
The latest satellite frame puts the entire southern part of Jamaica in the eyewall it seems...or right near it.
At current track, Texas will get little more than alot more rain. Granted it is not needed there, but hurricane winds and surge will not be seen in Texas.
It seems like a lot of people think Kingston was spared the brunt of the storm and while I can somewhat agree (could have tracked 30 miles more north)...they experienced close to the worst possible scenerio for them being in the NE quadrant.
i just wish the "Blob" soon to be FELIX would hurry up. i dont want to go back to school. haha. (joke)

whats the earliest anyone sees this storm becomeing any trouble for us floridians?
So is the general consensus around Tampico, MX then? Plus/Minus 30-50 miles....???
Posted By: Chicklit at 4:17 PM PDT on August 19, 2007.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html
Link
Do ANY of these models show a northward turn?
(The answer is NO...)



thats be come they are worth less now if it dos not strat turn mor W in to mx if it keeps going WNW then it will run in to the gulf of mx
I agree Pottery...Jamaica is taking a beating and will keep having to withstand 140+ winds for another eight or nine hours until Dean leaves for the open waters and then pounds the Caymans.
I agree with Taz, its slightly north of the models, whether this means anything I have no idea, but the path appears to be on the northern edge of the NHC cones.
1303. bobcane
Even the GFDL has given up on the northern turn as have I. It is west. It will be west. The ULL has moved far enough away that has no influence any longer and that closes the door on a north turn.
1304. Xion
Check out this frame of the satellite.

HERE

The slightest jog north or northwest will put most of southern Jamaica into the northeastern eyewall.

It is already skimming the coast.
Any of you 'forecasters' have any thoughts on what the market is gonna do tomorrow?
1307. 900MB
dang it, lost my kingston radio stream..anyone have a good link, please?
If you notice in this wide loop:
Link

Dean is heading almost exactly toward the center of the ULL. I would expect that as the ULL moves to the west, any shift to the north in Dean's track is unlikely.
1309. sngalla
Masterforecaster the CMC has it hitting South Florida in 144 hours or about 6 days.
Roman ,

Northern eyewall on shore???
Did not look that way to me on the floater..
There does not appear to be any other storms forming within the next 10 days...and after that it would be at least 5 days before nearing the US mainland...you will go back to school:-)
Taz, obviously you dont know much about weather.. stop scaring people... There is a BUILDING area of High Pressure that is shielding Dean from ever being a threat to the US
ULL ot the N of the 50-55W wave looks like it got obliterated but there's still shear on ystem as if ULL is stillthere (southerly shear). Other weird thing is the water vapor loop almost show a little rotation out in front of the wave around 22N 57W. Any idea what that is? It aint a ULL I don't think (wasn't there before). Maybe just part of the upper wave feature picking up on WV loop?
Posted By: MTCseadrifter at 11:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

AAARRGHH! Doesn't continual "jogging" to one direction indicate that a turn towards the direction of the jog is possible? example: Rita was forecasted to track to the Middle Texas Coast while moving wnw then came a period of jogging to the nw then eventually a turn to the nw and into TX/LA border. Also, I agree that the NHC has had this storm "pegged" for a while now and that is what bothers me because it is rare for the NHC to keep these scwewy wittle wabbits under thier gun for so long..... Just a thought :(


Powerful storms (or storms in general) do not always move in a straight line. They wobble around...which Dean has done for 3-4 days now.
Thought youmight be a Russ M that I know from Humble.
1317. 900MB
Link for Kingson radio..anyone, please...
900mb

I've been listening via
http://www.wrbn.net/

no streaming issues or static
Link

Jamaica Radio Link to Nationwide News Network
Is the CMC on crack.. that area to the NE of the Leewards is getting sheared apart... Way too hostile of an environment for anything to develop
1322. Spoon
I must have missed the link... where are you all getting current wind speeds for Kingston?
hello again...just the mouse in the corner lurking....lol

posted 2x but nobody answered the first and the second never appeared..

could dean just follow the ULL in the GOM nw? it looks to be going towards corpus. also, could the ULL develop into anything? didnt erin start off that way? i live southwest of houston near the coast and sure dont want dean (or more rain) to come our way.

thanks, all & hagn
Unless the Cuban radar shot is not north-south aligned, Dean appears to be moving due west at the moment. And Chicklit, no one responded to my comment that the FSU-5 (is that the super-ensemble?) still has it moving through Cancun up into Brownsville-Corpus Christi. Again, I don't think that's right at all, but it was still showing that as of the 12Z run.

Jo
I will say again !!!

The latest movement to the North is not a wobble. It is the jog to the North that I predicted tonight. This movement will continue as the ULL is now getting a definate pull on this system. Expect the continued Northwest movement until the brush with the Yucatan penninsula and then all bets are off.

People along the Texas coast remain on guard and do not buy into the consensus of the models. This system is still to hard to call and to many variables can come into play. The turn has begun get ready!!!!
Chicklit, Our friends in the Caymans must be under heavy manners now. My nephew flew in there yesterday, ( Foolish ) to play in a rugby tournament starting Monday. Apparently, they all managed to get out today, back to Miami. ( crazy )
I've been lurking/reading these posts and never known Taz to hype things up.....
1328. will40
Taz i dont see anything there to turn it north. I dont see the ULL doing that. probably seeing a wobble but not a turn. Once the ULL is gone a strong high will replace it IMO.
1329. sngalla
Local mets on evening news said that we need to keep a close eye on the wave. Shear is forecasted to drop as it enters the Caribbean in the next 24 to 36 hrs.
1330. 900MB
Thanks Chicklit!
1332. jake436
Posted By: seafarer459 at 5:22 PM CST on August 19, 2007.

Roman ,

Northern eyewall on shore???
Did not look that way to me on the floater..


He said the EyeWALL...not the eye. The eyewall is definitely onshore in Kingston...they are experiencing 114mph sustained winds, with gusts to 138mph. The eyeWALL isn't the eye...it is the wall around the eye.
New blog up!
blue,
do you have anything to post that shows this north turn?
I don't see it - what I see is Dean is going to head further south than projected. not north.
when does recon go in. they will probably find a cat 5
blue...

so why has Dean moved nearly dead west the last couple of frames?
JPhurricane.. besides the CMC model, what other models are developing that area of thunderstorms?
1339. JPV
You guys that are fawning all over how accurate the NHC forecasts are just plain cracking me up.

Don't you realize that the NHC is constantly changing their forecasts all the time?

Look at the "accuracy" of these tracks...

01

Ooohhh... look! It's headed north of Puerto Rico!


02

It's headed straight for Haiti and then it's gonna shoot north of Jamaica and squeeze right in between there and Cuba!


02

LOOK OUT! Direct hit on Jamaica, then it will scrape the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and end with a Mexico/Texas border landfall!


02

LOOK OUT! It's gonna pass by the south of Jamaica, then have a direct hit on the Yucatan Peninsula, and end with a Central Mexico landfall!

Yeah, it's REAL accurate... as long as you ignore all the times that it's been altered.

LOL!
Blue... You couldnt be anymore wrong... High Pressure is SHIELDING the US from Deans wrath
1341. centex
It's Gilbert revisted only slightly south. Current track taken out 4 days is only a little north of current cast because they expect turn from WNW to more W. My guess would it will be more presistent in the WNW track.
I do not wish a hurricane on anyone. I know the models show it hitting Mexico, but living in a Gulf Coast state makes me nervous right now. We live almost 90 miles inland and still hurricane Rita was very bad. Trees were crashing all around us and we weren't sure if our roof was going to hold. Thankfully it did and we were lucky to have only $14000.00 in damages. With that said someone please tell me is there ANY chance of this monster hitting Louisiana. We stayed for Rita, but will not stay for the next one.
RULE NUMBER 1: NEVERMIND TEXAS. DEAN WILL NOT HIT TEXAS, THE STATES.

RULE NUMBER 2: DEAN WILL HIT MEXICO 2 TIMES, HOW MUCH STRONG? WE DONT KNOW, WE ARE HERE FOR TO DEBATE THIS.
1344. Xion
Yes, new blog is up. Everyone move there.
still just the little mouse in the corner that nobody's paying attention to....:)
Swlouisianagirl, You are safe from Dean.. NO WAY it turns North and gets into the Gulf.. Theres a building area of High pressure protecting the Gulf States
Wait and watch young grasshopper...
Posted By: swlouisianagirl at 6:31 PM CDT on August 19, 2007.

With that said someone please tell me is there ANY chance of this monster hitting Louisiana. We stayed for Rita, but will not stay for the next one.


You're asking the wrong bunch. I'm sure we can find somebody to post that LA is still a possibility. I'm standing by the NHC.
Ok here is some raw analysis...

From Point of Origin to 1000 miles Dean avg heading of 274 degrees

from 1001 to 2000 miles Dean avg heading of 276 degrees

from 2000 miles to current position Dean has avg a heading of 281 degrees

Forecast position alignment
at 281 degrees to the yucaton slightly north of NHC track, and to NC predicited Landfall in Mexico is right on for a heading of 281 degrees from current position.

The southern tip of Texas would require a change in heading of 11 degrees to the north at 292 degrees. This is 244 nautical 281 statue miles north of the predicted Mexico impact.

to Houston Texas would require a heading change of 22 degrees to 303 degrees. This is 493 nautical 567 statue miles north of the predicted impact area in Mexico.
funny.. if it does somehow turn north? what do we debate then? since we can't debate where its going?
JPhurricane.. besides the CMC model, what other models are developing that area of thunderstorms?
Posted By: jake436 at 11:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Posted By: taco2me61 at 5:09 PM CST on August 19, 2007.

Mobilebayrat,
The answer is yes.... With the way the storm is coming in, the storm surge will be high from Corpus Christy Tx to Brownsville Tx


Not exactly...Of course it would depend on how far south of the border it hit. But the main thing is...and I would think that someone with MobileBay in their screenname would know this...is that the MS and Mobile Bay areas are more susceptible to surge than anywhere else along the Gulf Coast...due to the shallow shelf. Also, Mobile Bay is situated so that the mouth of it acts as a funnel for northward moving surge...which is what Katrina brought. Also, Dean...as impressive as he is...isn't nearly the physical size of Katrina...so the affected area won't be as large. Of course, there is plenty of time for Dean to grow...both in strength and size...but it's unlikely he will attain the physical size of Katrina.

Yes I do know that Mobile is the most northern on the Gulf Coast but with all due respect if the storm comes in at an angle such as Dennis or Ivan there was no storm surge.... Also with Cindy we also had no storm surge which took the same path as Katrina... Now I understand that those other storms were not as big as Katrina but could had some kind of surge...
Even Camile nor Fredrick had the Surge of what Katrina and they were even closer..... I think it has alot to do with the Angle of the storm...

Just my 2 cents worth and it even is not worth that much....

One thing that bothers me about the current models and the NHC track is that they seem to indicate a strong chance of a mainland landfall just north of Vera Cruz. I know that coastline and there is a nuclear power plant built right on the coast (not two hundred yards off of the GOM). That's plenty scary for me, even though I know those things are built like a fortress.
Dr M has a new blog up
BlueWaterblues...I have a similar opinion. Earlier today I mentioned that the East Cost high was "behind the curve" and that the GOM ULL was running interference for Dean. Upper level winds seem to indicate that West of Jamaica, the steering looks to be northerly. I'm not a forecaster but was an aerographer in the Navy and observation rather then modeling is a more realtime and precise approach.
Yes, Pottery...very serious there. Kmanislander and WelshCayman have been preparing for days. I hope to see them post on here again soon! I think the rugby tournament is canceled for tomorrow.
I won't believe anything till its in the books.
Wow... is Dean developing a feeder ban all the way out at Long. 85? Could that be a feeder band that far out in front of it? And look at what's happening in Cuba. It's difficult to see how Dean isn't going to get even huger when it clears Jamaica, no matter what direction it ends up taking. :-((

Jo
That feeder band is the boundary layer
3rd times the charm?????

again...maybe a silly question.....

could dean follow the ULL into the GOM nw? it looks to be heading to corpus...

i live sw of houston near the coast and am tired of rain and sure dont want to see dean! bless the people in its path.......
The MM5 model from FSU shows the ridge in the Gulf weakening over the next few days and shifts Dean's track way to the North. Also the HWRF which used to have one of the most southerly tracks now shows Dean moving strongly to the north once he is past the Yucatan. It's not over yet.
It's not a feeder band. It's just where outflow from Dean is meeting some headwinds and rising and condensing out.
Rainx2, I'm not sure... but I wouldn't let my guard down.
This one is way over for the US...every computer run is further south and south and south....although some of you still think Florida is still a possibility...LOL....y'all don't quit your day job....:)
Hi Gang - The Upper Level Low (ULL), as has been pointed out several times the past two days, is out of the picture in terms of any influence on Dean. It is following its forecast movement to the west. It has also been mentioned by several other posters that Erin did not start out as an ULL and that that it is rare for a ULL to expand down to the surface and generate any tropical system.

Was the ULL and its position a concern previously in a possible influence to Dean's track ? Yes - if Dean had caught up to it. Is it anymore ? No. They are not even close enough to be on shouting terms let alone speaking terms.

The atmosphere is a 3-dimensional system with various scales of features both in the horizontal and the vertical. The different scales do interact, however even a hurricane as powerful as Dean can't shove its way through a strong, established high pressure system by itself.

When you are looking at the water vapor loop - which I'm happy to see - many of you have been - you must keep in mind that you are seeing a 2-dimensional image of the atmosphere. You can't tell - at least not without a lot of experience - from just looking at the moving features exactly where those features lie in the vertical which makes a difference when you are considering how the moving features will interact with each other - if at all.

Think of looking down on a highway interchange with multiple bridges and fly-overs. If the roads were transparent, you would not be able to tell from space whether one car was hurtling toward another on the same road or hurtling underneath or above it. To the untrained eye there are not "roadways" in the sky to tell you which features are crossing over, under or beside each other - or how "tall" each feature might be. Replace "cars" with various heights of buildings trucking along a transparent highway system with multiple levels and you will get what I mean. At least I think you will. :-)

1366. GoofOff
In 36 to 40 hours Dean is scheduled to make landfall. After that, it really won't matter what is happening in the Gulf. The storm should lose most of it's punch. If you could visit the NHC in Miami and see all the data that is flowing into there, I think you would have a lot more faith in their projections. It is somewhat better than the dart boards some on here seem to enjoy.
The only impact on USA will be if the old center heads north into TX after landfall and keeps its rains together like Erin has. I guess there is still a slight chance of damaging effects around Brownsville, but it seems less and less likely. Also, the long trek across the Yucatan is likely not just to weaken Dean, but may cause him to lose his well organized structure. We won't know that till he is most of the way over though.
and 8 pm advisory is out, if you want to read it.
rainraingoaway
again...maybe a silly question.....

could dean follow the ULL into the GOM nw? it looks to be heading to corpus...

i live sw of houston near the coast and am tired of rain and sure dont want to see dean! bless the people in its path

Not a silly question. Highly unlikely however living in south Louisiana you pay close attention to all tropical systems.
Looking at the satellite on nhc...from a very amature perspective...I can see that ULL sweeping Dean into the GOM. How real is that possibility?
1371. bobcane
what was that thing that dean spit out on the last 2 sat images over Jamaica?
The ULL has no effect on Dean and high pressure is controlling it, Models continue pushing the track south. Belize just put up warnings. Get over it.
I knew Florida was out of the picture about 4 days ago.
I don't think this is over for the US. Not yet. It is still very possible that it can come ashore in Texas. Just wait till the models swing back north again.
beenthereinmiami

thank you. that was very helpful to me.
i appreciate it.
1376. LSU79
It looks to me that the ULL may be stalling or even moving slightly ENE on the latest water vaper loop.