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Deadly tornadoes rip Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:59 PM GMT on March 02, 2007

A powerful storm system that brought heavy snow, flooding, high winds, ice storms, and deadly tornadoes yesterday continues to sweep across the Eastern U.S today. Tornado warnings have already been issued for coastal North Carolina this morning, and tornado watches are up for much of eastern Virginia, North Carolina, and Maryland. However, the front that brought dozens of tornadoes to the Southeast yesterday has lost much of its punch, and only weak tornadoes are likely today.

Hardest hit yesterday was Enterprise, Alabama, where a strong tornado 200 yards wide hit the high school, killing at least eight teenagers, according to preliminary reports. According to the Tornado Project, this is one of the ten most deadly tornadoes to hit a U.S. school. The last tornado to kill so many school children occurred in 1967 when an F-4 tornado hit Belvidere High School in Illinois. The storm hit while high school students were boarding sixteen buses already containing elementary school students. Twelve of the buses were overturned or thrown. One bus driver and 12 students were killed after being "tossed like leaves" into adjacent fields. Students and teachers used school doors and plywood from nearby houses as stretchers for the injured students, of which there were 300. In nearby Harvard, a school bus was ripped in half and thrown into power lines as the driver and 20 students hid in a ditch.

The Enterprise tornado was an EF-3--Enhanced Fujita Scale 3--with winds of 136-165 mph. Radar imagery of the Enterprise storm (Figure 1) shows a classic hook echo characteristic of a strong or violent tornado. The Doppler radar winds (Figure 2) shows the classic signature of a strong tornado--blue colors right next to red colors, indicating winds moving towards and away from the radar in a tightly rotating storm. I've also saved a radar animation of the tornado as it passed over Enterprise.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the Enterprise, AL tornado ten minutes before it hit.


Figure 2. Doppler winds image of the Enterprise, AL tornado ten minutes before it hit.

A confirmed EF-3 tornado hit Howell County, Missouri, killing 7-year old girl and injuring four people at 6:33am Thursday. This tornado had a 15 mile long path up to 1/4 mile wide.

Preliminary reports indicate that at least 15 tornadoes hit Georgia last night, killing eight and injuring many more. Americus, Georgia, where two people died, was particularly hard hit. The twister struck a hospital, destroying its fleet of ambulances and forcing closure of the hospital. I've also saved a radar animation of this storm.

Here is a sampling of all the NWS damage reports from suspected tornadoes for Georgia as of 8am EST today (Friday):

03/01/2007 0922 PM
Americus, Sumter County.
*** 2 fatal *** possible tornado. Significant damage to
homes and the hospital. Numerous trees and power lines
down. Gema confirmed two fatalities.

03/01/2007 0810 PM
4 miles ENE of Warrenton, Warren County.
*** 3 inj *** possible tornado. Numerous homes damaged
with a few injuries. Significant damage to Briarwood
Academy on Highway 278.

03/01/2007 0820 PM
Thomson, McDuffie County.
Possible tornado. Houses damaged...along with trees and
power lines down near the intersection of GA 150 and
Dallas drive. Structural damage near the intersection of
GA 150 and Old Washington Road. Numerous trees down near
the National Guard Armory.

6 miles S of Gray, Jones County.
Possible tornado. Numberous trees and power lines down
along Highway 49.

03/01/2007 0535 PM
Potterville, Taylor County.
*** 1 fatal *** possible tornado damaged unkn number of
homes and buildings and downed numerous trees and power
lines on bear Road. Rolled a Mobile home. One fatality.

03/01/2007 0550 PM
4 miles NW of Macon, Bibb County.
Possible tornado has knocked over traffic lights...power
poles and business signs. A gas station was damaged near
Zebulon Road near Interstate 475.

03/01/2007 1045 PM
12 miles SE of Irwinton, Wilkinson County.
Tornado reported by the public. Law enforcement has
confirmed at least one home damaged near Nickelsville.

03/01/2007 0630 PM
2 miles N of Columbus, Muscogee County.
Several commercial buildings with structural damage in
2400 block of Brookstone Parkway. Windows blown out...
large AC units tossed aside...porch poles missing...
power poles twisted and down...and trees down across
parked cars.

03/01/2007 0855 PM
Weston, Webster County.
Possible tornado. Tractor trailer was overturned on
Highway 520.

03/01/2007 0230 PM
5 miles N of Fort Gaines, Clay County.
Apparent tornado approximately 5 miles north of Fort
Gaines, GA. Numerous trees down and homes damaged.

03/02/2007 1218 am
3 miles S of Isabella, Worth County.
Numerous trees down. Just north of Bridgeboro 2 houses
were destroyed. Significant damage has been reported off
Sumner Lakes Road. Only minor injuries reported but
information remains in the preliminary stages. One 18
wheeler jackknifed in the median of U.S. Hwy 19.

03/02/2007 0100 am
3 miles NNE of Tempy, Worth County.
*** 1 inj *** home leveled.

03/01/2007 1150 PM
11 miles N of Mitchell Co A, Baker County.
Mobile homes damaged just north of Newton in Baker
County. Estimated time of tornado touchdown is 1150 PM
EST. Report of 6 fatalities at the Mobile Home Park is
now confirmed from GEMA as of 730 am EST...March 2.

03/02/2007 1204 am
2 miles NE of Baconton, Mitchell County.
Tornado on the ground in Baker County moved into Mitchell
County at 1204 am EST. This tornado stayed on the ground
across the northern portion of the county for 7 miles
until crossing into Worth County. 13 structures were
damaged in the Baconton and Pleasant Grove communities.
No injuries or fatalities reported.

Thursday's wild weather made it the second busiest day ever for the wunderground.com web site. The 17 million web pages we served from our public site was second only to the 18 million served during Hurricane Rita on September 23, 2005.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Very nice, Thanks Jeff.
That was the first time I remember SPC issuing High Risk along the Gulf Coast... My ex lives in Enterprise... that statue in the middle of the street that is shown in the crappy Enterprise tornado video is of a Boll Weevil, an insect that almost wiped out their cotton industry in the early 20th century...I talked to a random someone from around that area yesterday, and they actually blamed yesterdays tornadoes on global warming... no I'm serious...someone has got to stop these people.
Severe Weather Warnings Page..Link
After seeing these, our few trees down from gusty straight line winds are nothing.
Thanks Dr. Masters
17 million HITS on Wundergrounds public site yesterday,..Thats a most impressive number.Many come here to see the events unfold in real-time.More and more weather links to th WU are being seen everywhere now
Thanks for updating us Dr. Masters....will look forward to your hurricane updates during the coming 2007 season.
Yes,they are Patrap.I've seen links to our tropical page on many sites.
Excellent Kris..
For those Lost in the Terrible Tempest yesterday....



september seventeen for a girl i know, it's mother's day her son has gone alee and that's where he will stay wind on the
weathervane tearing blue eyes sailor-mean as falstaff sings a sorrowful refrain for a boy in fiddler's green

his tiny knotted heart well i guess it never worked too good the timber tore apart and the water gorged the wood you can hear
her whispered prayer for men at masts that always lean that the same wind that moves her hair moves her boy through fiddler's
green






he doesn't know a soul and there's nowhere that he's really been but he won't travel long alone no, not in fiddler's green
balloons all filled with rain as children's eyes turn sleepy-mean and falstaff sings a sorrowful refrain for a boy in fiddler's green
For example...Link
howarjo1943...crappy Enterprise tornado video??...someone has got to stop you people.
For your information the cotton boll weevil did effectively kill the cotton industry, and was considered a blessing because it spurred people to diversify and put their talents into better industry. That is why the monument to the boll weevil stands in Enterprise.
Jeff:

I remember the Belvidere tornado well! We lived in Belvidere from 1965 - 1968. My wife worked at the hospital and had gotten off work early that day since it was a slow day. The hospital was built in an E shape and the middle portion of the E was destroyed. That meant all of the labs and operating rooms were destroyed. No one at the hospital was seriously injured. We were on site about two hours after the twister. The hospital was evacuated and patients moved to Rockford.

I remember buses at the school being rolled (one about 5 times), not "tossed" about like leaves. The school was a new school. The gym had the roof lifted and rotated about three feet and set back down. The kids inside were playing basketball, etc. and there were no serious injuries.

The NWS got caught on that one since there were no warnings issued. Warning were issued for the twisters that hit near Chicago a short time later. They actually collected documents, etc. From homes hit in Belvidere that were dropped by the storm up to 80 miles or so away.

The power of the twister was really shown when it went through the Chryser Assembly plant rail yard and a switch engine was leaning against another switch engine parked on the next track.

My wife, daughter and I got caught in the formation of another twister in Belvidere. We had severe thunderstorms in the area and I was getting ready to open the car door for them when we heard a terrible racket behind us. When I turned around, a dumpster a couple hundred yards away was floating about 15 feet in the air and trash was swirling upwards. I did not see a funnel as such. I pushed both of them to the ground and laid across them. The wind gave the car a good bounce. The twister killed a farm family about a mile away when it destroyed their house.

After those two storms, I knew I did not care for tornado alley. I loved my job, but we decided to move back south to put up with hurricanes.

I lived in Keystone Heights, Florida when the hurricane that hit Jacksonville from Atlantic back in 1963 or 64. I don't remember the name of the storm, but the eye passed about 5 miles north of us in Keystone. It brought down a lot of trees and one large pine cut a house in half.

JimInAbbeville
Enterprise soon after yesterdays Tornado..
A good show of coordination and How the public has to respond First in a MCI..a Mass Casualty Incident. Luckily..this wasnt ..but it shows how fast one can go from normalcy,..to ruin
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070228123140.htm
I find it interesting that during any of the huge outbreak of Twisters that very little if any are captured in action on cell phone cameras, digital cameras, digital video cameras, web cams, surveillance cameras, etc...

I understand the danger but it would seem that there should be a some type of footage available to view.
by look at this video you may tell how storng it was

when i look at the video it look like a EF4 or a EF5

Enterprise, Alabama High School Tornado

Good Blog Dr. Masters. It was certainly some night for them folks up there
Big Bad..Large Damaging EF-3-4..with that BAse and force.Totally awesome terror..without conscience or reason.
Taz...think you might be a little disconnected bro?
sorry i could not help it
I agree with that Patrap...just saw video of the damage on CNN.Looked like Andrew's helicopter pics...EF3 or 4.
And LOL Taz.
any one seen my Enterprise, Alabama High School Tornado video?
No problem Taz..I made negative comments about New Orleans because everyone knew it was coming..and nothing was done. I wish I hadn't now. There is nothing most people can do about their fate.
: franck ok
30. IKE
Posted By: Melagoo at 10:47 AM CST on March 02, 2007.
I find it interesting that during any of the huge outbreak of Twisters that very little if any are captured in action on cell phone cameras, digital cameras, digital video cameras, web cams, surveillance cameras, etc...

I understand the danger but it would seem that there should be a some type of footage available to view.


Can't blame folks for getting out of the way...as best they can...with that tornado coming their way.
There is probably some footage out there, but a little too expensive at the moment.
Megaloo most people are thinking about saving themselves or others and are scared out of their minds when a tornado is roaring closer to you.

There is a classic film from 1952 @ Warner Robbins AFB in GA which was the first detailed film of a tornado--the camera operator was so mesmerized as the tornado went across the base destroying buildings that he was killed as the tornado went on top of him--but the film was found and remained intact.


Most people are not that mesmerized though.
More Video from Enterprise Tornado from Blog Handle "SouthAL"..Link
Fulita Scale..Old and New Link
*** IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ENHANCED F-SCALE WINDS: The Enhanced F-scale still is a set of wind estimates (not measurements) based on damage. Its uses three-second gusts estimated at the point of damage based on a judgment of 8 levels of damage to the 28 indicators listed below. These estimates vary with height and exposure. Important: The 3 second gust is not the same wind as in standard surface observations. Standard measurements are taken by weather stations in open exposures, using a directly measured, "one minute mile" speed
NWS Fujita Scale Page...Link
I knew it was gonna be bad but we could have never imagined that it would hit the high school.I warned about this cell in rands blog just before it hit.

Posted By: weathersp at 6:56 PM GMT on March 01, 2007.(14 minutes before it hit)

EVERYONE IN ENTERPRISE AND NEW BROCTON ALABAMA SHOULD BE IN THEIR BASEMENT, CLOSET OR BATHTUB RIGHT NOW!!

Radar Link

Posted By: weathersp at 7:02 PM GMT on March 01, 2007. (8 Minutes before it hit)

EVERYONE IN ENTERPRISE MUST BE IN SOME SAFE PLACE RIGHT NOW THERE IS A TORNADO KNOCKING ON YOUR DOOR AND IT WILL COME IN!! TVS IS STILL THERE AFTER 3 FRAMES...

Radar Link

I pray for all of those who were hit in enterprise and throughout this whole system.
God Bless you all...
weathersp your links are no good
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 21:10 PM UTC on March 02, 2007.

Eastern Australia (TCWC Brisbane)

Tropical Cyclone Advise #3
=========================
Tropical Low
17.2S 153.3E - 30 knots 996 Hpa

wind gusts up to 45 knots

Tropical Low is located 560 km northeast of Hayman Is and 620 km northeast of Mackay.

The TROPICAL LOW is currently near stationary and is expected to remain slow moving during the weekend.

The LOW is expected to form into a TROPICAL CYCLONE overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

GALES could develop on the exposed coast and Islands between Ayr and St. Lawrence early on Monday as the cyclone intensifies.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Ayr to St Lawrence.


===============================================

Northern Australia (TCWC Darwin)

Tropical Cyclone Advise #3
==========================

Tropical Low
13.2S 131.5E - 995 hPa

The Tropical Low is centered inland over the northwest Top End about 110 kilometres southeast of Darwin and is moving west-southwest at 9 knots.

MONSOONAL GALES with gusts to 50 knots are currently being experienced along the north coast of the Top End and may extend southwest to DALY RIVER MOUTH during Saturday. There is the possibility of a cyclone forming in the Timor Sea on Sunday with GALES developing in coastal areas between DALY RIVER MOUTH and MITCHELL PLATEAU

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from DALY RIVER MOUTH in the Northern Territory to KURI BAY in Western Australia.

Next Tropical Advises issued by Darwin & Brisbane is at 11:00am EST (Australian local time)
I didn't mean to sound morbid but just the shear number of ways to capture things and the number of people with the devices almost instantaneously at their command.
In another day or two some media footage of the tornado will probably appear.
Really, really bad news

lol
hello
Looks interesting Tazmanian. Could make for an interesting Atlantic season.
Taz a more favorable enviroment will probably be present but remember its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems which end up determining which locations might be threaten.
yes it dos 23 yes it dos well find out soon
Posted By: DocBen at 5:12 PM CST on March 02, 2007.

Looks interesting Tazmanian. Could make for an interesting Atlantic season.


And tornado season... and it looks like it already has :-(
2007 likely is going to be a year that will never be forgotten, in many ways...
Enterprise, Alabama was a EF3 Tornado
I would agree with MichaelSTL.
I predict that, although some weather disasters will occur, 2007 won't be much worse than a normal year.
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a naturaland not a human- inducedcause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Solar Cycles

Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists. (Because it threatens their Government grants, Welfare)

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report."

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."

Planets' Wobbles

The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)

All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.

These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.

Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.

"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

No Greenhouse

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.

Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

Thought it was an intresting article
Al Gore invented the Tornado!! That is all.
1:00am UTC
TCWC Brisbane
◘ Using the 10 min sustained winds for intensity

Tropical Cyclone Odette [Cat 1]
16.6S 154.8E - 35 knots 991 Hpa

wind gusts up to 50 knots

Tropical Cyclone Category 1 Odette is 790 km east northeast of Bowen and 780 km northeast of Mackay

GALES may develop on the coast and islands between Ayr and St. Lawrence during Monday morning.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Ayr to St Lawrence.

Next Tropical Advise at 5:00pm AEST
So if Mars is getting hotter, what about Venus? Any way to tell. This might be one good reason to set up a base or monitoring station on the moon. Since one side always faces the sun it should be a good integrator of solar thermal energy. Just measure the temperature at inch intervals down to 50 ft.
Jupiter is also experiencing some warming as well.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FOR 92S...

Formation Graphic + Infrared NRL view

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Saturday 3 March 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal communities from Kalumburu to Daly River
Mouth.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Kuri Bay in WA.

At 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT] a TROPICAL LOW was centred inland over the
northwest Top End about 40 kilometres north northeast of Port Keats and 210
kilometres southwest of Darwin, and is moving west southwest at 13 kilometres
per hour. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the
southeastern Timor Sea early on Sunday. The system is expected to move closer to
the far north Kimberley coast between WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU later on Sunday.

STRONG MONSOONAL WINDS with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced along the northwest coast of the Top End, extending southwest into
the north Kimberley overnight.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the coast
between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU early Sunday morning, and may extend
further west to KURI BAY Sunday night or Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour could develop on the
north Kimberley coast between WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU later on Sunday if the
system continues to intensify.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between WYNDHAM
and KALUMBURU later on Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the western Top End. Heavy rain is
expected to extend into the far north Kimberley on Sunday, causing flooding of
low-lying areas.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 6:30 pm CST [6:00 pm WDT]:
. Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 129.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues from Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Kuri Bay in WA.

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT]





TRG1299. Thats pretty severe man.He did not say it was his belief, he said it was interesting. I thought so too.
Hey Pottery!
This is the GFS forecast for 17S:



If this verified, it would become a true monster (many Category 5 hurricanes have been much weaker on these diagrams, including some recent very notable ones).
"Well of course you did, afcjags03. You'll willingly swollow any crap shoved down your throat."

Really? Wow, i didn't know that about myself. Thank for clarifying that you don't have a clue.

Thanks pottery, but I frequent many message boards, football mostly, so i'm use to seeing this kind of idiotic drivel spewed from someone's mouth.

I thought it was intresting, but no where did I say humans are not causing global warming. I just love when people assume things.
Is it just me or are the carrabian and Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are well above normal with some approaching 82 and the wind sheer is falling please correct me if I am wrong
Yed they are T0122

That is unusual for this time of year


Northern areas colder, southern areas warmer. In fact, the loop current looks about 2.5C warmer then average.
Hi, Myles and Storm2. Yep, things are shaping up nicely.........
I'll be back later.

Mr, Mrs and Master Smith want me to take them somewhere.
Hey All.
And WOW! I didn't notice it before, but look how fast La Nina is coming on! Compare my above image with this one from Feb 3rd, excactly 1 month ago.

shear recovered in the atlantic


But fell off in the W caribbean again~


it may be falling off again in the e caribbean as well. Intability is still high all around.

The only area so far that has registered any slight chance of development so far is the East Pacific.
By the way, this was the La Nina of 1998 at peak (for comparison):

hi, STL and Skye. Whats the forecast for African weather for the coming season ? Can we predict, based on La Nina conditions, a dryer central African summer, which will result in more Dry SAL conditions? Things are shaping up for a potentialy ugly season, but not if the SAL is dry and hot. Any ideas ?
Current weather here :
temp 88 f
some cloud
humid. 49 %
dew pt. 66
press. 29.89
wind 16 mph east
Solar Irradiance

image from wikipedia, looks like solar irradiance is actually in a down cycle, but the russian scientist conveniently forgot to look at this data.
some one sould wake up dr m he sould no about this some one send him a WU e mail and went him no
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [1:30 am WDT] Sunday 4 March 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell
Plateau to Daly River Mouth.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Cockatoo Island in WA.

At 12:30 am CST [12:00 am WDT] a TROPICAL LOW was located near the coast 11
kilometres west of Port Keats and 300 kilometres east of Kalumburu, and moving
south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the southeastern Timor
Sea during this morning. The system is expected to move closer to the far north
Kimberley coast between WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU later today.

STRONG MONSOONAL WINDS with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced along the northwest coast of the Top End, extending southwest into
the north Kimberley.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the coast
between DALY RIVER MOUTH and MITCHELL PLATEAU this morning, and may extend
further west to COCKATOO ISLAND on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour could develop on the
north Kimberley coast between WYNDHAM and MITCHELL PLATEAU later today if
the system continues to intensify.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between WYNDHAM
and KALUMBURU later today.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the western Top End. Heavy rain is
expected to extend into the far north Kimberley today, causing flooding of
low-lying areas.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 12:30 am CST [12:00 am WDT]:
. Centre located near...... 14.2 degrees South 129.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 7 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals




Hi there Taz. How you doing ?
78. Inyo
There are eight (or nine) planets in the solar system, so it would be only logical that at least a few are getting warmer at any given time. Mars has so many wobbles and such in its orbit, so it is likely that this is why mars is getting warmer. Or, perhaps the sun is fluxuating in heat output but um, we monitor the sun, so we have that data. there are easier ways to measure the sun's heat than to average the temperature of a different planet
"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

AARGH! How can those who should know better keep saying this? Solar irradiance has been level or decreasing overall since 1980. I dealt with this in one of my own blog entries. And saying that Mars is warming (if in fact our data are good enough to justify stating this) proves very little about the origin of Earthside warming.
Global
81. Lexy
Here is Article I found interesting on global warming:

SUV's On Jupiter?
Are humans responsible for climate change on the outer reaches of the solar system, or is it the sun?

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Thursday, November 16, 2006

Kofi Annan today slammed global warming skeptics as being "out of step" and "out of time," but how will altering human activity halt climate change when the evidence clearly indicates that the sun itself and not SUV's is heating up the entire solar system?

"The U.N. chief lamented "a frightening lack of leadership" in fashioning next steps to reduce global emissions. "Let us start being more politically courageous," he urged the hundreds of delegates from some 180 member nations of the 1992 U.N. climate treaty," reports Forbes.

But how do we square the fact that almost every planet in our solar system is simultaneously undergoing temperature change and volatile weather patterns. Does this not suggest that global warming is a natural cycle as a result of the evolving nature of the sun? Can Al Gore fill me in on this one?

- Space.com: Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists
In what is largely a reversal of an August announcement, astronomers today said Pluto is undergoing global warming in its thin atmosphere even as it moves farther from the Sun on its long, odd-shaped orbit.

- Space.com: New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change
The latest images could provide evidence that Jupiter is in the midst of a global change that can modify temperatures by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit on different parts of the globe.

- Current Science & Technology Center: Global Warming on Mars?
A study of the ice caps on Mars may show that the red planet is experiencing a warming trend. If both Mars and Earth are experiencing global warming, then perhaps there is a larger phenomenon going on in the Solar System that is causing their global climates to change.

- United Press International: NASA looks at a monster storm on Saturn
NASA says its Cassini spacecraft has found a hurricane-like storm at Saturn's South Pole, nearly 5,000 miles across -- or two-thirds Earth's diameter.

- Science Agogo: Global Warming Detected on Triton
There may not be much industrial pollution on Neptune's largest moon, but things are hotting up nonetheless. "At least since 1989, Triton has been undergoing a period of global warming," confirms astronomer James Elliot, professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Percentage-wise, it's a very large increase."

- Associated Press: Study says sun getting hotter
Solar radiation reaching the Earth is 0.036 percent warmer than it was in 1986, when the current solar cycle was beginning, a researcher reports in a study to be published Friday in the journal Science. The finding is based on an analysis of satellites that measure the temperature of sunlight.

- London Telegraph: The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame
Global warming has finally been explained: the Earth is getting hotter because the Sun is burning more brightly than at any time during the past 1,000 years, according to new research.

The simple fact is that throughout the ages the earth has swung wildly between a warm, wet, stable climate, to a cold, dry and windy one - long before the first fossil fuel was burned. The changes we are now witnessing are a walk in the park compared to the battering that our planet has taken in the past.

This is not a defense of the oil cartels or the Neo-Con wreckers, who would have every motivation to ignore global warming whether it is man-made or not.

Nor is it a blanket denial of the fact that the earth is getting very gradually hotter, but how do we reconcile global warming taking place at the farthest reaches of the solar system with the contention that it is caused by human activity? Have our exhaust fumes left earth's atmosphere and slipped through a black hole to Triton?

The assertion that global warming is man made is so oppressively enforced upon popular opinion, especially in Europe, that expressing a scintilla of doubt is akin to holocaust denial in some cases. Such is the insipid brainwashing that has taken place via television, newspapers and exalted talking heads - global warming skeptics are forced to wear the metaphoric yellow star and only discuss their doubts in hushed tones and conciliatory frameworks, or be cat-called, harangued and jeered by an army of do-gooders who righteously believe they are rescuing mother earth by recycling a wine bottle or putting their paper in a separate trash can.

Fearmongering about an imminent climate doomsday also hogs news coverage and important environmental issues like GM food, mad scientist chimera cloning and the usurpation and abuse of corporations like Monsanto flies under the radar.

Global warming is cited as an excuse to meter out further control and surveillance over our daily lives, RFID chips on our trash cans, GPS satellite tacking and taxation by the mile, as well as a global tax at the gas pump.

The extremist wing of the environmentalist movement, characterized by people like Dr. Erik Pianka, advocate the mass culling of humanity via plagues and state sanctioned bio-terrorism, in order to "save" the earth from the disease of humanity. Nazi-like genocial population control measures and the environmental establishment have always held a close alliance.

The orthodox organized religion of global warming and its disastrous consequences for our freedom of speech, freedom of mobility and our right to remain outside of the system, needs to be questioned on the foundational basis that the phenomenon is solar-system wide and it is mainly caused by the natural evolution of the sun and not human activity.
82. Lexy
Here is another scientist who is thinking outside the box on global warming.


Russia
Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming
14:30 | 15/ 01/ 2007

Print version

ST. PETERSBURG, January 15 (RIA Novosti) - Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted through human activities, believed by scientists to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, are an effect rather than the cause of global warming, a prominent Russian scientist said Monday.

Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory, said global warming stems from an increase in the sun's activity. His view contradicts the international scientific consensus that climate change is attributable to the emission of greenhouse gases generated by industrial activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

"Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy - almost throughout the last century - growth in its intensity," Abdusamatov told RIA Novosti in an interview.

"It is no secret that when they go up, temperatures in the world's oceans trigger the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man's industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN panel of thousands of international scientists, widely regarded as an authority on climate change issues, established a consensus many years ago that most of the warming experienced over the last half-century has been attributable to human activities.

However, scientists acknowledge that rises in temperatures can potentially cause massive increases of greenhouse gases due to various natural positive feedback mechanisms, for example the methane released by melting permafrost, ocean algae's reduced capacity to absorb carbon at higher water temperatures, and the carbon released by trees when forests dry up.

Abdusamatov, a doctor of mathematics and physics, is one of a small number of scientists around the world who continue to contest the view of the IPCC, the national science academies of the G8 nations, and other prominent scientific bodies.

He said an examination of ice cores from wells over three kilometers (1.5 miles) deep in Greenland and the Antarctic indicates that the Earth experienced periods of global warming even before the industrial age (which began two hundred years ago).

Climate scientists have used information in ice cores, which contain air samples trapped by snow falling hundreds of thousands of years ago, providing an ancient record of the atmosphere's makeup, to establish that throughout the numerous glacial and interglacial periods on record, temperatures have closely tracked global CO2 concentrations.

The fact that background atmospheric CO2 levels, shown for example by the famous Keeling curve, displaying precise measurements going back to 1958, are now known to be well above concentrations experienced in hundreds of millennia, as displayed by the ice cores, is considered by most of the scientific community as incontrovertible proof of mankind's influence on greenhouse gas concentrations.

However, Abdusamatov even disputed the greenhouse effect, claiming it fails to take into account the effective transmission of heat to the outer layers of atmosphere.

Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since the 19th century. The phenomenon by which gases such as methane and CO2 warm the troposphere by absorbing some of the infra-red heat reflected by the earth's surface has the effect of a global thermostat, sustaining global temperatures within ranges that allow life on the planet to thrive.

But Abdusamatov insisted: "Ascribing greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated. Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."

Abdusamatov claimed that the upper layers of the world's oceans are - much to climatologists' surprise - becoming cooler, which is a clear indication that the Earth has hit its temperature ceiling already, and that solar radiation levels are falling and will eventually lead to a worldwide cold spell.

"Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060," he said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50 years, after which the temperatures will go up again.

"There is no need for the Kyoto Protocol now, and it does not have to come into force until at least a hundred years from now - a global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions," Abdusamatov said.

The 1998 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets greenhouse gas emission targets for the period up to 2012, entered into force two years ago following ratification by 141 countries, which together account for over 55% of the world's gas pollutions. However, most environmentalists now consider its targets inadequate to enforce the emissions cuts necessary to curb climate change.

Russia ratified the treaty in November 2004, making it legally binding. But the world's top polluter, the United States, is still reluctant to sign on for fear the treaty's emission commitments will slow down the country's economic growth.
Lexy, did you just completely ignore the data in the solar constant chart I posted? you can cite a million articles with zero data to back them up if you want, but scientifically there is no measurements that show the sun is heating up. Please, find me some data that proves the sun is heating up and maybe I'll consider the theory, but I doubt you'll be able to find it.

Back in the nineties no one believed there was any global warming, now that physical evidence is showing up (i.e. glacial melting) the new trend is to find another reason. Some will never be convinced, especially those that have a financial stake.
Tropical Cyclone Advise Number Ten
Issued by Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Darwin

Time: 18:00pm UTC

Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 1]
14.5S 129.3E - 35 knots 990 hPa

wind gusts up to 50 knots

Tropical Cyclone George [Cat 1] is located 40 km south-southwest of Port Keats and 290 km east of Kalumburu, and moving southwest at 6 knots.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the western Top End. Heavy rain is expected to extend into the far north Kimberley today, causing flooding of low-lying areas.

GALES with gusts up to 60 knots are expected to develop on the coast between DALY RIVER MOUTH and MITCHELL PLATEAU this morning, and may extend further west to COCKATOO ISLAND on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau to Daly River Mouth.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Cockatoo Island in Western Australia.

Next Tropical Cyclone Advise at (8:00am CST) Central Australian local time
One more thing on this Russian "scientist", has anyone looked into who is funding his research? I would imagine the Russian government would have a very significant reason for injecting doubt into the fossil fuel/global warming relationship....

From www.eia.doe.gov
In 2004, Russias real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 7.1 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the countrys sixth consecutive year of economic expansion. Russias economic growth over the past five years has been fueled primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period.

Russias economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in world oil prices. According to an IMF study , a $1 per barrel increase in Urals blend oil prices for a year is estimated to raise federal budget revenues by 0.35 percent of GDP, or 1.8 billiona fact that underlines the influence of oil on Russia's fiscal position and its vulnerability to oil market volatility. The government's stabilization fund, a rainy-day storage facility for windfall oil receipts that came into effect on January 1, 2004, is designed to help offset oil market volatility. Even before oil prices reached near-record levels, the fund was expected to be worth almost $52 billion by the end of 2005, or about 7 percent of the countrys GDP. Raw materials, such as oil, natural gas, and metals, dominate exports and account for over two-thirds of all Russian export revenues.

As Russias stabilization fund grows, using it to solve social problems or to buy other assets outside of Russia may become more likely. Although estimates vary widely, the World Bank has suggested that Russia's oil and gas sector may have accounted for up to 25% of GDP in 2003 while employing less than 1% of the population. The Russian government has made decoupling economic growth from commodity exports a priority. But, nationalizing parts of the energy sector (see discussion on Oil Industry Sector below) has come at the expense of Russian oil and natural gas producers, who are seeking to grow in a more liberalized marketplace, as well as Russia's external trading partners, who are pressuring the country to synchronize its policies with those in Western Europe and North America. Key to these efforts will be breaking up the monopolies that control the natural gas and electricity industries.

Kremlin policy makers continue to exhibit an inclination to advance the state's influence in the energy sector, not to reduce it. Taxes on oil exports have been raised significantly and private oil companies complain that the higher export taxes are hindering efficient allocation of profits into exploration and development. State-owned export facilities have grown at breakneck pace, while private projects have progressed more slowly or have been met with roadblocks by state-owned companies Gazprom and Transneft (see Oil Exports ); Rosneft, the state-owned oil company has obtained the 1-million-bbl/d Yukos unit of Yuganskneftegaz; and leading industry figures have come under criminal investigation by Russia's Procuracy General (see Oil Industry Structure ).
86. Lexy
I didn't say I was convinced it was all solar related but I will look into it. I imagine there is more to it than that. For example: (AP) -- The strength of the Earth's magnetic field has decreased 10 percent over the past 150 years... The weakening -- if coupled with a subsequently large influx of radiation in the form of protons streaming from the sun...That can lead to significant but temporary losses of atmospheric ozone." More here... Earth's Magnetic Field Is Fading http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0909_040909_earthmagfield.html
It is weird that it has occurred exactly over the theoretic origin of human caused Global Warming because of the Industrial Revolution. My beef is that evil men in political power will use this as they do every other real or contrived emergency to oppress the people.
The big lie is politicians pretending that they can stop global warming. It is happening and can not be stopped even by draconian measures that the wingnut globalists are touting. The truth is we will have to adapt to the new climate. I do fully support everyone geting off the big oil teat and using renewable feuls like solar, wind etc. I am off the grid and I like it that way. I'll do some research on the solar radiance and its effects. In the mean time check out this alternative view. Here is a quote: "Human activities contribute slightly to greenhouse gas concentrations through farming, manufacturing, power generation, and transportation. However, these emissions are so dwarfed in comparison to emissions from natural sources we can do nothing about, that even the most costly efforts to limit human emissions would have a very small-- perhaps undetectable-- effect on global climate." from Global Warming A closer look at the numbers
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
We can't resolve the issue here but I am convinced we need open honest debate on the subject rather than dogma.
That is a very good point about Russia, they have everything to gain from higher oil prices.
Lexy, have you ever seen the Keeling Curve? since 1958 they have been measuring Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere. here's the data...

Keeling Curve

since 1960 CO2 levels have increased 60 ppm, nearly 20%. Using Ice core samples scientists are able to extract air bubbles trapped thousands of years ago and determine the composition of the air at that time. Here's the data from these samples...

CO2 data

As you can see, CO2 levels historically have never been above 300ppm. I guess my question is, what natural cause has caused the 20% increase in the last 50 years if it's not the millions of pounds of CO2 humans pump into the air every year?

Tropical Cyclone Advise Number Eleven
======================================


Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 1]
14.5S 128.8E - 40 knots 988 hPa

wind gusts up to 55 knots

Tropical Cyclone George [Cat 1] is located 85 km west-southwest of Port Keats and 235 km east of Kalumburu, and moving west at 8 knots.

GALES with gusts up to 60 knots will be experienced on the coast between DALY RIVER MOUTH and MITCHELL PLATEAU this morning, and may extend further west to COCKATOO ISLAND on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 70 knots could develop on the north Kimberley coast between WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU early this afternoon if the system continues to intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell Plateau in Northern Territory to Daly River Mouth in Western Australia.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Cockatoo Island in Western Australia.
but scientifically there is no measurements that show the sun is heating up.


well......that might be able to be refuted....is it the cause of gw?...not sure as of yet..you can prove that....bewaare of claims that you're not well versed in
OK, here's a simple observation in physics/chemistry that might surprise a few of you.
Everyone knows that the oceans are the biggest CO2 sink in the world.

When water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas.
(This is simple, universally known chemistry/physics.) CO2 happens to be even more sensitive to this than most other gasses.

So, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that a warmer globe means LESS CO2 in the ocean and therefore MORE in the atmosphere.

So regardless of the cause of global warming, it makes TOTAL sense that CO2 increases when the temperature increases, and it decreases when the temperature does.

Now, I'm not saying that human CO2 emissions AREN'T warming the globe, but I AM saying that anything that warms the globe puts more CO2 into the atmosphere. Anything that cools the globe does the opposite.

On top of this, more fires, and thawing ground that trapped CO2 for centuries puts out more CO2 when it's warmer.

So, we're dealing with a question of cause and effect here.

Now, I also know, being a chemist, that CO2 should, theoretically, warm the earth. It absorbs light in the IR range. If CO2 does not cause some other effect that counteracts the warming, we will end up with a runaway increase in temperature: More warmth=more CO2=More warmth. And if it's really happening now, it's probably too late to do anything about it.

But I also happen to know that WATER is the most powerful greenhouse gas known. And yet clouds REFLECT sunlight. An no matter how good we've gotten at predicting weather, we still do only a mediocre job at predicting a day ahead. How can we predict what it will do in 20 years? Or what it will do as the globe warms? It could be counteracting the warming trend, or it could be throwing gasoline on the proverbial fire.

There's lots of things to be worried about here, no doubt. But any scientist who truly thinks he knows what's going on is either an egotistical maniac, an idiot, or a con trying to get more funding for his research. And I, as a scientist, feel that I'm qualified to say this.

That being said, I do applaud those who are warning us that we're treading on thin ice here. We're inadvertantly performing the biggest experiment mankind has ever done, and we don't really have a good idea of what the results will be.

Logic dictates that we plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
BTW, AFCjags03 is not a hack, but is a victim of propaganda. The best propaganda is based on facts. Anyone who looks at the "hockeystick" graph and totally believes in global warming is also a victim. It's easy to manipulate data or correlate facts to support a point.
Winds are up to 55kts on George...

NRL visible Image shows improving organization and this trend should continue with george as he moves away from land.
Peace On Earth all!
ricderr, the sun's irradiance is not increasing. see below...

Solar Irradiance

It's not my job to disprove some wacked out Russian scientists theory, based on no data whatsoever. Find me some data that proves the solar output of the sun is increasing and I'll listen to the theory.





I watched the movie "Who Killed the Electric Car" tonight. Highly recommend it, it's available to rent. I wasn't aware of the very long history of the electric car. & how less efficent, easy, affordable, clean hydrogen is compared to electric.

U.S. Projects 19 Percent Emissions Rise by 2020

700am UTC

Tropical Cyclone George [Cat 1]

George's sustained winds is 40 knots with wind gusts up to 55 knots

weakening because of landfall.

The system is expected to remain over land for about 12 hours before re-intensifying quickly over water

+48hrs: March 6th 0600 UTC:
14.7S 118.0E-- 65 knots 960 hPa [CAT 3]
Caffinehog, always glad when you share your informed viewpoint.

There's only one point in your comments I take issue with. (BTW I took college Chemistry and Physics as an engineering major.)

When water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas.

Well, when water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas when saturated. I don't believe the oceans are saturated with CO2 now. I believe the oceans continue take up CO2 from the atmosphere and are becoming increasingly acidic.

However if/when the time comes when the oceans are saturated the nasty positive feedback you describe will kick in. There may even be positive feedback before then due to the loss of sea life from increased acidity.
hello all



hello all

this is a wave that i will be keeping a eye on for the next few days has it move W and has you can see it is holdeing up well in all the high wind shear and it will be moveing in to some what lower wind shear

lol

this is what the wave will be run in to i will give it a 5% ch for right now

lol
Last Chance..for Southeast Louisiana Link
Interactive Graphic Link
Good Afternoon Everyone

La Nina is coming into effect earlier than forecasted.

TC George is forecast to move in to very hot waters (32C +) one it clears a part of Australia. For more info on the storm and the warning associated with the TC come to my blog or HadesGodWyverns.
Taz that convection has 0 chance for any kind of tropical development as conditions are very unfavorable across most of the basin with 50-60kt windshear across parts of the atlantic give it a few months and then we could start looking out there.Adrian
Posted By: LowerCal at 11:40 AM GMT on March 04, 2007.

Caffinehog, always glad when you share your informed viewpoint.

There's only one point in your comments I take issue with. (BTW I took college Chemistry and Physics as an engineering major.)

When water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas.

Well, when water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas when saturated. I don't believe the oceans are saturated with CO2 now. I believe the oceans continue take up CO2 from the atmosphere and are becoming increasingly acidic.

However if/when the time comes when the oceans are saturated the nasty positive feedback you describe will kick in. There may even be positive feedback before then due to the loss of sea life from increased acidity.


Yes, you're right about the saturation point, but there's also an equalibrium to take into account. When a gas in the atmosphere is at equalibrium with a gas dissolved in water, warming the water shifts the equalibrium so more goes into the air. Therefore, the warmer the water, the more CO2 is in the air, even if the oceans are NOT saturated.

I should have been more precise.
Not yet, taz... when you start seeing areas of shear below 20kt, then we can start talking about chances of development. Maybe in the east pacific....
BTW, CO2 has some interesting properties that make it MORE subject to shifts in equalibrium than most gasses. While most gasses are in equalibrium between being atmospheric and being dissolved in the ocean, (which depends on temperature, CO2 also has an equalibrium between being dissolved CO2, and being carbonic acid. When you take away dissolved CO2, the carbonic acid gets converted back into CO2 to replace it, and then that gets lost to the atmosphere. This means that the curve is not linear, but in fact exponential.

This should scare the crap out of you if you truly believe in human-induced global warming.
If you're not sure about it, then it should definately make you think.

This, among other positive feedback loops, such as the thawing of frozen carbon deposits and the albedo effect of northern ice, makes me think. Basically, I believe that if we truly ARE seeing the signs of global warming, that means it's probably already too late.
Updated my blog with the Latest Warning For TC George.

A little bit of what it says, TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGE has reformed close to the north Kimberley coast and is
expected to move into the Indian Ocean during this morning.

That was from the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

Come to my blog to read the full warning
Caffinehog, thanks for setting me straight on saturation vs. equilibrium. I did well in college Chemistry but that's the last time I actually used it, lol.

Thanks also for the additional info on carbonic acid and the exponential release curve on CO2.

Yeah I definitely have an uneasy feeling about the gathering momentum of the positive feedbacks working against us. I'm hoping (in a cross my fingers way) some currently unforseen negative feedbacks might buy us a little more time.

In the meantime however I'm taking all the reasonable positive steps I can. Energy efficient appliances, thrifty use of petroleum fueled transport, etc. and saving money doing it.
Off on a tangent - that chem talk reminded me of Carbonic Anhydrase
The choice of animals & plants for moving CO2 -fast.. Working & Lurking HI
BTW... just to head off any crazy ideas:

CB, carbonic anhydrase will NOT shift the equalibrium towards carbonic acid. Enzymes only speed up reactions, they do NOT shift equalibriums!
Yeah, it's definately a good idea to do things to reduce your CO2 emissions, regardless of whether or not it has any effect on global warming. It contributes to the future energy independence of our nation, and helps avoid wars like the one we're in now. It also saves you money if you own whatever it is for a reasonable period of time.

Two easy, affordable, money saving, environmentally things anyone can do is:
Install compact fluorescent bulbs. They cost 3-4X as much as a normal lightbulb, but last at least that many times as long, and us 1/4 of the electricity.

Another thing, get rechargeable batteries. Use them twice, and you've put less waste materials and carbon into the environment. Use them 4-5 times, and you've saved money. And some modern rechargeable batteries, specifically Hybrio and Eneloop brand batteries, don't go dead on their own like the old rechargeables used to. Plus, they'll last WAY longer than alkalines in anything that would use up their power in less than a day.
Additionally, modern batteries don't contain cadmium or have memory effect like the old nicads, so they're much more environmentally safe.
Just make sure you get a smart charger to maximize the life of the rechargeables.
BTW...
True, that.
I bought nickel metal hydride (NiMH) rechargables a while ago for the convenience and to save money. They supply enough power for 95% of my battery devices but they do gradually lose their charge sitting on the shelf.

I'll check out the Hybrio and Eneloop. They'd be suitable for emergency kit batteries and with luck powerful enough for the remaining 5% of my devices too.

(comment to fix blog title on list page)
LowerCal,
You can slow the drain of unused NiMH batteries by storing them in the fridge.

Also, be aware that leaving NiMH batteries uncharged for several months can kill them, as can leaving them in a flashlight that's left on long after they are drained. Eneloop and hybrio are more immune to the former, though.
And again, I emphasize a SMART charger, otherwise you'll take years off the life of your batteries, and could kill them during a single overcharge.
Tropical Cyclone Advice Twenty-Two
===================================

Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 1]
14.5S 125.7E - 45 knots 982 hPa

wind gusts up to 65 knots

Tropical Cyclone George [Category 1] is located 115 km north of Kuri Bay and 210 km west of Kalumburu, and moving west at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone George [Category 1] is moving off the Kimberley coast out into the Indian Ocean. The system is expected to intensify overnight as it moves westwards away from the Kimberley coast.

Gales with gusts up to 60 knots are being experienced on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay however they are expected to ease as system moves further away from the coast this evening. Gales may extend southwest to Beagle Bay for a period overnight if the cyclone gale radius increases or the cyclone takes a more southwesterly track.

Heavy rain is being experienced in the north Kimberley and may cause flooding of low lying areas..

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Kalumburu.
Best energy saving tip I know:

buy a $10 folding clothes rack instead of using the dryer.

In the summer, a dryer pumps air-conditioned air outside and adds waste heat to the house. In the winter, a dryer pumps hot air outside while a rack re-hydrates the house.

A rack is simple, quick and eliminates the need for ironing time on everything except church/ office quality clothes. Plus it folds away beside the dryer easily.