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Deadly Rains From Tropical Cyclone One Kill 34 in Sri Lanka, Leave 134 Missing

By: Jeff Masters 3:28 PM GMT on May 18, 2016

One of the deadliest weather-related disaster of 2016 is unfolding in Sri Lanka, where heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone One have triggered flash floods and landslides that have killed at least 34 people and left 134 missing. The rains began on Monday, when an area of low pressure that formed on the leading edge of the advancing monsoon began to consolidate just to the southeast of Sri Lanka. Hours of torrential rains triggered massive mudslides Tuesday evening that buried homes and people in the villages of Siripura, Pallebage and Elagipitya in Kegalle District, about 45 miles north of the capital of Colombo. The Sri Lankan Red Cross said 220 families were reported missing on Wednesday, but that the situation was unclear.

According to the April 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, four weather-related disasters so far in 2016 have killed over 100 people:

1) Heat wave in India, 4/1 - 4/30, 300 deaths
2) Flooding in Pakistan and Afghanistan, 4/2 - 4/8, 152 deaths
3) Flooding in Pakistan, 3/9 - 3/29, 141 deaths
4) Winter Weather in China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand, 1/20 - 1/26, 116 deaths


Figure 1. Sri Lankan military personnel take part in relief and rescue efforts following a landslide in the village of Bulathkohupitiya on May 18, 2016. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone One from Chennai, India at 02:20 UTC Wednesday, May 18, 2016. Heavy rains from the storm were affecting the Bay of Bengal coast of India.

Forecast for Tropical Cyclone One
Tropical Cyclone One had top sustained winds of 45 mph at 8 am EDT Wednesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) gave the system top winds of 35 mph (but IMD uses 3-minute average winds for tropical cyclones instead of the 1-minute averaging time used by the U.S., resulting in winds that will be perhaps five percent lower than JTWC's.) Radar images from Chennai, India on Wednesday showed the storm was not well-organized, but was bringing heavy rains to the east coast of India. Moderate wind shear near 20 knots and warm ocean temperatures near 30 - 31 C (86 - 88°F) should allow some modest intensification through Thursday. By Thursday evening, the storm will be passing over an ocean eddy with low total heat content and unusually cool water, which should discourage development. At that time, the storm will also be getting embedded in a trough of low pressure with high wind shear, which should cause weakening. Relatively cool waters with low total heat content also lie in the the extreme northern portion of the Bay of Bengal, so the storm will likely continue to weaken as it approaches landfall in the northern Bay of Bengal on Saturday. The Wednesday morning run of the HWRF model goes along with this idea, showing little change in strength for the storm on Friday and Saturday, with TC One making landfall on Saturday as a tropical storm.

The global weather summary for April 2016 will be posted later today.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Very scary conditions, thanks for the updates...
From the previous blog:

Quoting 433. daddyjames:

Fort McMurray wildfire - satellite estimates of current perimeter and hotspots from the previous 24 hours. Courtesy of GeoGratis. As well as some recent, relevant information.




'The second disaster': Impractical donations burden Fort McMurray relief work

Otherwise, your heart may be in the right place, but if you really want to help - donate money. And understand that some of that money will go to support long-term efforts/overhead so they can respond to future emergencies.

The Fort McMurray Fire Has Grown 40 Percent in Two Days

Fort McMurray fire sweeps east through northern oilsands sites

No Relief From Canadian Wildfires Expected Wednesday
When disaster relief brings anything but relief
Many of the well-meaning articles we Americans donate in times of disaster turn out to be of no use to those in need. Sometimes, they even get in the way. That's a message relief organizations very much want us to heed.

If motivated to help, the best help is $$$$$ to the appropriate relief agency.
While I doubt we'll have a super-dramatic blue water Arctic this melt season (that would take a continuation of near-perfect weather for melting and ice export, and weather conditions could turn around quickly), it is somewhat disconcerting to me when any geo-physical measure appears to be 3+ standard deviations away from its norm!

Caveat-- I can't vouch for the standard deviation calculations myself, and they're not from scientific sources necessarily, although they don't appear to be out of bound given what has happened to the ice extent trend this year.


Thanks for the update.
Sri Lanka's President Sirisena visits flood-hit area as death toll hits 37 - The Straits Times, AFP, May 18
- Over 350,000 people have been hit by flooding in Sri Lanka and 223,000 are sheltering in state-run welfare centres.
Sri Lanka hit by massive landslides after torrential rain, in pictures - UK Telegraph, May 18
Quoting 3. daddyjames:

When disaster relief brings anything but relief
Many of the well-meaning articles we Americans donate in times of disaster turn out to be of no use to those in need. Sometimes, they even get in the way. That's a message relief organizations very much want us to heed.

If motivated to help, the best help is $$$$$ to the appropriate relief agency.


Its just like the well meaning tourists who took the little bison calf away from its herd and to, a park ranger demanding that it was cold and needed heat ... because the animal was taken away he got rejected by the herd and had to be put down ...

Sometimes well meaning deeds can be just the wrong thing to do

A disaster is not an excuse to dump stuff ,that noone needs in a disaster ... high heal shoes, fine for taking to the local thrift store that could help for an interview or provide inexpensive dress shoes , but useless for restoration or re building ,

Its Cash that is needed ....
I had the unfortunate need to have to go outside.......yuck its nasty out there.....nothing can build....its so weird....
Quoting 4. bwi:

While I doubt we'll have a super-dramatic blue water Arctic this melt season (that would take a continuation of near-perfect weather for melting and ice export, and weather conditions could turn around quickly), it is somewhat disconcerting to me when any geo-physical measure appears to be 3+ standard deviations away from its norm!

Caveat-- I can't vouch for the standard deviation calculations myself, and they're not from scientific sources necessarily, although they don't appear to be out of bound given what has happened to the ice extent trend this year.





I don't think that's very accurate, NSIDC is showing like 11.8 million square kilometers



Quoting 3. daddyjames:

If motivated to help, the best help is $$$$$ to the appropriate relief agency.


It did not help either when we were told the whole town was going to be burnt to the ground, and in the end only 10% of structures burned.
Quoting 10. MahFL:



It did not help either when we were told the whole town was going to be burnt to the ground, and in the end only 10% of structures burned.


What source told you that the whole community was going to burn to the ground? None of my many sources stated that. Some of them did state that the entire community was under evacuation order though.
Quoting 6. VR46L:



Its just like the well meaning tourists who took the little bison calf away from its herd and to, a park ranger demanding that it was cold and needed heat ... because the animal was taken away he got rejected by the herd and had to be put down ...

Sometimes well meaning deeds can be just the wrong thing to do

A disaster is not an excuse to dump stuff ,that noone needs in a disaster ... high heal shoes, fine for taking to the local thrift store that could help for an interview or provide inexpensive dress shoes , but useless for restoration or re building ,

Its Cash that is needed ....


Maybe relief agencies should start a campaign to encourage peole to hold garage sales instead, and donate any proceeds from that.
The logistics of having to store, organize, and move donations can quickly consume the cash resources that the relief agency has to spend on actually helping people.

One of my "favorites" from a long-time ago (1998): Appetite Stimulants for the Starving: In-Kind Donations Are Not Always Kind to Recipients

If you are concerned about the agency or need "guidelines" regarding the organization you are donating to then bookmark these sites
Charity Watch
Charity Network
Quoting 9. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't think that's very accurate, NSIDC is showing like 11.8 million square kilometers




Quoting 4. bwi:

While I doubt we'll have a super-dramatic blue water Arctic this melt season (that would take a continuation of near-perfect weather for melting and ice export, and weather conditions could turn around quickly), it is somewhat disconcerting to me when any geo-physical measure appears to be 3+ standard deviations away from its norm!

Caveat-- I can't vouch for the standard deviation calculations myself, and they're not from scientific sources necessarily, although they don't appear to be out of bound given what has happened to the ice extent trend this year.





More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link
Quoting 10. MahFL:



It did not help either when we were told the whole town was going to be burnt to the ground, and in the end only 10% of structures burned.


Perhaps this is a reflection of your ability to comprehend what was reported? Reports were that up to 90% of some neighborhoods were destroyed by the fire - not the whole city.
The fact that most of the city was saved was due to the excellent work of the firefighters. I'm a "glass half full" kind of guy, so I consider it as a positive..
A new video by Dr. Ricky Rood wunderground featured Climate Change author.





Quoting 13. canyonboy:



More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link



Yeah - it could be vastly underestimating the extent of ice loss occurring . . .
Quoting 9. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't think that's very accurate, NSIDC is showing like 11.8 million square kilometers





NSIDC has a different measure.
Anyway, the starkly deviating line is correct. The sea ice is on a new trajectory.
Quoting 13. canyonboy:



More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link



The NSIDC graph (blue curve in comment 9) is the one that is using provisional data (it is shown as red and dashed on the NSIDC Charctic graph). The IJIS extent graph (red curve in comment 4) is not provisional. IJIS & NSIDC have different methods of determining extent, so this year's NSIDC graph should be compared with NSIDC graphs from other years, and this year's IJIS graph should be compared with IJIS graphs from other years. Each of them show extent running record low for this time of year.
Thank You Dr; illustrates the point that a wet tropical storm, under the right conditions (whether related to topography or population factors/preparedness) can cause just as much damage and/or loss of life as a hurricane or typhoon.



Current NSIDC data is using the F-18 measurements which they are trying to calibrate to their old F-17 data after the sensor failure. Other agencies use different methodologies and sensors and therefore are not directly comparable. The current NSIDC graphics are provisional, but that doesn't make them necessarily wrong, better, or worse than any other data set at the moment. Unfortunately, the instrument failure occurred at the beginning of what looks to be an incredible melt year in which all sets are showing record low levels.

Edit: Beat me to it, DC.
22. bwi
Not aware of any satellite continuity problems with ADS-JAXA (formerly known as IJIS) measurements. They're just different from the NSIDC (which, as has been noted, is having some satellite issues over the last month).

Quoting 13. canyonboy:



More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link

you will notice the correlation between no cloud cover for weeks on end and hot water
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
which corresponds with this:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
etc etc.....


Quoting 14. washingtonian115:


Quoting 13. canyonboy:



More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link



The measurement isn't faulty. It's corroborated by several other data sources all showing similar trends (JAXA, IJIS, etc.).

Arctic sea ice is currently 3-4 standard deviations below historical climatological norms, no matter which source or imagery you use (well, except for the dying satellite data cryosphere uses currently). Head on over to Neven's arctic sea ice blog. Not only are there a lot of knowledgeable people who provide in depth analysis and discussion on the arctic, but it also provides a consolidated page of data sources, imagery, and graphs.

Heading out at 2:30 -5:00Pm Local CDT at the NOLA Lakefront Airport to see and meet the NOAA & Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters Hurricane Awareness Week tour. The P-3 Orion is here as well as the G-4. "Gonzo"
and the AFR C-130.

Will get some pics and show the Wife the P3 Orion, the same Aircraft that Dr. Masters flew with as a NOAA Hurricane Hunter.


Living the wu life is a good thang.

Quoting 10. MahFL:



It did not help either when we were told the whole town was going to be burnt to the ground, and in the end only 10% of structures burned.
Of course, "we" weren't told that. There was a period of time that most of the structures in town were under threat, and that threat was communicated. But despite the--rather obvious--fact that some people can't understand the difference between the statements "There's a possibility that Event X may happen" and "Event X is certain to happen," there is, indeed, a difference.
Guardian article about increasing numbers of polar bear/grizzly hybrids, with picture of one killed by a hunter. Usual speculation about climate change being responsible, as grizzlies extend their range northwards.

Link
Is the blog broken again?
Quoting 13. canyonboy:



More likely the measurement is faulty.

"Note: The red dashed/dotted line for 2016 indicates provisional data from the DMSP F-18 satellite. These data should not be used for quantitative analysis. See our post on the F-18 satellite transition."

Link



I've been following Robert Scribbler on this, see what you think of his remarks:

Polar Heatwave Digs in as Arctic Sea Ice Crashes — Blue Ocean Event Looking More and More Likely
Link
Quoting 16. Patrap:
A new video by Dr. Ricky Rood wunderground featured Climate Change author.
I'll wager that our resident, hard-core AGW/CC deniers like "iceagecoming" will not be able to comprehend this excellent new science-based video and what it tells us. They certainly will not be able to accept the absolutely solid evidence that is behind the presentation, because ideological and fear-based denial is an extremely powerful drug.
Quoting 10. MahFL:



It did not help either when we were told the whole town was going to be burnt to the ground, and in the end only 10% of structures burned.


You also have to consider that the 10% damage report mostly comes from reporters that were offered a drive-by tour of the city. They only saw what was still standing vs what was burned to the ground. They didn't see the homes and businesses filled with smoke and soot or water from the protection efforts, resulting in hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in yet unknown damages.
Quoting 18. cRRKampen:

NSIDC has a different measure.
Anyway, the starkly deviating line is correct. The sea ice is on a new trajectory.
I keep think back to George Monbiot's 2012 statement that:

"Along with the Arctic ice, the rich world's smugness will melt."
You can see from this shot why Cyclone 1 is causing so much flooding; very impressive core coming ashore as well as wet banding well inshore:




Jonathan Erdman ‏@wxjerdman

At least 3 #Pakistan locations have reached 50˚C (122˚F) today. Peak of 51˚C (123.8˚F) at Sibi. (HT @bloggerhead20)
Has anyone read twc synopsis on the likelihood of a Florida landfall this year? It's on twc site. Take it for what it is- conjecture, however statistically speaking it's time and it is an interesting read
Quoting 4. bwi:

While I doubt we'll have a super-dramatic blue water Arctic this melt season (that would take a continuation of near-perfect weather for melting and ice export, and weather conditions could turn around quickly), it is somewhat disconcerting to me when any geo-physical measure appears to be 3+ standard deviations away from its norm!

Caveat-- I can't vouch for the standard deviation calculations myself, and they'resnipalthough they don't appear to be out of bound given what has happened to the ice extent trend this year.



David Appell has wtiten a post about the low arctic ice extent at Quark Soup, he writes

Arctic Sea Ice Just Set an All-Time Record Low(*)

*Tonight's Arctic sea ice extent: 4.06 standard deviations below the mean.

That's the lowest in the records, which start 11/1/1978.



...It stands out even more if you measure the anomaly in standard deviations from the mean. I've taken the baseline as 1981-2010. Using the standard deviation of the anomalies over this period, 2016's anomaly for May 17th, -1.22 Mkm2, is -4.06 standard deviations below the mean

Bad start to the melt season (massive fracturing perfectly showing up at the beginning of this month around Beaufort sea) :


Blue-ocean event? Maybe yes, maybe not. Gavin Schmidt says there's a 99% chance 2016 is gonna be the new hottest year ever, which is in line with the MetOffice's forecast. And with such a start to the melt season, even if conditions can still improve on top of the world for what remains of the arctic summer, it's a safe bet to say that when September comes the melt numbers are gonna fall closer to 2007 or 2012 levels than to the so-called "rebound years" levels of 2013-2014. Something tells me it will be even lower than the 2012 Sept. minimum. But don't listen to me, I have no qualifications, and I'm of the certified doomsayer/glass half-empty type ;-)
* I just happened to stumble upon an article from last year featuring CO2 levels = 399.5 ppm. I couldn't help but think "those were the good old days".

Do they still issue hurricane forecast on this site?
Thanks for the update, doc. Dire fate of those poor people in Sri Lanka.

And there are really impressive amounts of precipitable water billowing in the Bay of Bengal:


Southwest Monsoon makes onset over Andaman and Nicobar Islands
May 18, 2016
As reiterated by Skymet Weather, Southwest Monsoon has finally arrived over some parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal, entire South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and some parts of North Andaman Sea on May 18.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Latitude 5°N/ Longitude 86°E, Latitude 8°N/ Longitude 87°E, Hut Bay and Latitude 12°N / Longitude 99°E.
Weather conditions are favourable for the further progress of Southwest Monsoon over Sri Lanka and into some more parts of South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and remaining parts of North Andaman Sea during next 3 to 4 days.
The onset of the Monsoon can be attributed to the deep depression in Bay of Bengal, which is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm within next 24 hours.
However, the timely onset of Monsoon does not have any association with the performance or further progress of the Southwest Monsoon.
Skymet Weather predicts that Southwest Monsoon is likely to make timely onset over Indian mainland of Kerala.
This year, we expect Monsoon 2016 will receive 105% of LPA (Long Period Average) of 889 mm of rainfall during four month long rainy season from June to September.


12Z model runs showing something tropical in the W Caribbean late this month going into June
First time in a while we also have model agreement of sorts GFS,CMC,Euro, and to lesser extent NAVGEM

And this seems to be reasonable as this time of year the W Carib is one of the places to look
I'm currently checking to see if any other models pick up on this
Also will check in over next few days to see if models continue this trend
This may be or may not be a ghost we would need to wait and see
Quoting 37. Sandcat:

Has anyone read twc synopsis on the likelihood of a Florida landfall this year? It's on twc site. Take it for what it is- conjecture, however statistically speaking it's time and it is an interesting read


Statistically speaking, every year Florida is more likely than not to be impacted by a hurricane. It's not going out on a limb to forecast a Florida impact.
Today marks the 36th anniversary of the mount Saint Helen's Eruption killing 57....Link

A day before the eruption...



eruption...

Quoting 37. Sandcat:

Has anyone read twc synopsis on the likelihood of a Florida landfall this year? It's on twc site. Take it for what it is- conjecture, however statistically speaking it's time and it is an interesting read


I don't think you can use statistics in this way here. Previous years lack of landfalls does not effect present or future years' odds. Say I flip a coin ten times and each time I record a tails. This does not mean that I'm "statistically due" for a heads on the 11th toss. The odds of a heads on the next flip remains the same - 50%. The same can be said for Florida landfalls. Each year, the same climate odds of a landfalling hurricane exist. Some years might have higher odds (hurricanes are more complicated than a coin flip) due to El Nino/La Nina or strength of the Bermuda/Azores high, but odds don't increase because of a previous year's lack of Florida landfalls.

Here's TWC's take on what has happened since Wilma. Hurricane Drought
back in the old days it was believed after yrs with no Florida freeze you are more likely to get a major hit than yrs with a hard freeze it was a mild winter no freeze here
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive
lightning... small hail and 45 to 55 mph winds for Palm Beach County
until 430 PM EDT...

* at 344 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorm from 6 miles north of lion country safari park to 6
miles southwest of Wellington to near holey land wildlife
Refuge... moving east at 20 mph.

* Frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...
small hail... torrential downpours... or a combination of these are
possible. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in
Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds
can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured
small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm
passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Jupiter... Palm Beach Gardens... Lake
Worth... Riviera Beach... Belle Glade... Palm Beach... Pahokee... Tequesta...
South Bay... Juno Beach... Lake Harbor... Canal Point... Greenacres... Royal
Palm Beach... Palm Springs... North Palm Beach... Lake Park and Atlantis.
guessing what to look for around June 1 is a sheared trough from the western carib up through the straits out into the bahamas. now it is your guess where development could take place? last yr i would of said the bahamas this yr western carib. for now though its all sheared out and dry.
Quoting 38. JohnLonergan:



David Appell has wtiten a post about the low arctic ice extent at Quark Soup, he writes

Arctic Sea Ice Just Set an All-Time Record Low(*)

*Tonight's Arctic sea ice extent: 4.06 standard deviations below the mean.

That's the lowest in the records, which start 11/1/1978.



...It stands out even more if you measure the anomaly in standard deviations from the mean. I've taken the baseline as 1981-2010. Using the standard deviation of the anomalies over this period, 2016's anomaly for May 17th, -1.22 Mkm2, is -4.06 standard deviations below the mean




Another measure is Freezing Degree Days.
"The relationship between thermodynamics and sea ice thickness can be thought of most simply in terms of freezing degree days (FDD), which is essentially a measure of how cold it has been for how long. The cumulative FDD is simply daily degrees below freezing summed over the total number of days the temperature was below freezing."

The 2016 anomaly for FDD in the Arctic is literally off the charts.


It will have a lot to deal with to develop in this area.
What feature is going to stimulate anything spinning up near us?
Sure would be nice to get some relief
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:

12Z model runs showing something tropical in the W Caribbean late this month going into June
First time in a while we also have model agreement of sorts GFS,CMC,Euro, and to lesser extent NAVGEM

And this seems to be reasonable as this time of year the W Carib is one of the places to look
I'm currently checking to see if any other models pick up on this
Also will check in over next few days to see if models continue this trend
This may be or may not be a ghost we would need to wait and see
Good graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach that shows the formations of all the Hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S since 1878.Notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean due to usual stronger trade winds in that region.



The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
east central Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 411 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located over Royal Palm
Beach... or over Wellington... moving east at 20 mph.

Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... expect damage to roofs... siding... and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Palm Beach Gardens... Lake Worth and
Riviera Beach.
Quoting 51. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach that shows the formations of all the Hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S since 1878.Notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean due to usual stronger trade winds in that region.




Swarm east of the islands is interesting.
plenty of seeds for tropical development started in the eastern carib just not enough to call them a td.
From Phys.org, May 18.

- Climate change, runaway development worsen Houston floods
... Consistent with other studies forecasting more intense and at the same time more localized heavy rainfall events in a warming world.

- Scientists predict extensive ice loss from huge Antarctic glacier

...Will Totten Glacier wait until next century? The law of "faster than predicted" consequences of AGW could apply here as well.

- Getting a better read on how climate change threatens agriculture
... Consistent with other studies forecasting decreased harvests of many edible/cereal crops in a warmer/higher CO2 concentrations world.

- New study finds major earthquake threat from the Riasi fault in the Himalayas
Quoting 38. JohnLonergan:



David Appell has wtiten a post about the low arctic ice extent at Quark Soup, he writes

Arctic Sea Ice Just Set an All-Time Record Low(*)

*Tonight's Arctic sea ice extent: 4.06 standard deviations below the mean.

That's the lowest in the records, which start 11/1/1978.



...It stands out even more if you measure the anomaly in standard deviations from the mean. I've taken the baseline as 1981-2010. Using the standard deviation of the anomalies over this period, 2016's anomaly for May 17th, -1.22 Mkm2, is -4.06 standard deviations below the mean


That is some scary lookin data...I am waiting on new data coming in about the large toxic algae blooms in the gulf..If the GOM takes any more hits from pollution and oil spills, it will resemble a sewer...Its literally being polluted from all sides.
Key Hothouse Gas to Rise at Record Rate, Hit Near 408 Parts Per Million in 2016

These are now the highest atmospheric CO2 levels seen in the last 23 million years. And an annual rate of CO2 increase approaching 4 parts per million is unheard of for any time period in any geological record — even during the Permian hothouse extinction event which wiped out about 90 percent of life in the oceans and 75 percent of life on land. This very rapid rate of atmospheric CO2 increase is being spurred on by a fossil fuel based carbon emission now in the range of 13 billion tons each year (of which CO2 is the vast majority). That’s a rate of carbon addition more than ten times faster than the carbon spike that set off the Paleocene-Eocene hothouse mass extinction about 55 million years ago. A very dangerous rate of carbon accumulation that will generate increasingly severe and harmful geophysical changes over the coming years, decades and centuries. An event that, if it continues, could well be termed the mother of all carbon spikes.

Link
Some Sri Lanka numbers.

The highest rainfall of 260.2 mm during a lapse of 24 hours ending at 5.30 a.m. on Monday, May 16, was recorded in Katunayake.

Colombo meanwhile, recorded a rainfall of 232.4 mm, while Ratmalana recorded a rainfall of 170. 8 mm.

Rainfall of 131.1 mm was recorded from Ratnapura while Mannar recorded a rainfall of 173. 9 mm. Trincomalee recorded a rainfall of 182. 4 mm.

Several areas in and around Colombo remain inundated hampering vehicular movement owing to heavy downpours.


Link
Quoting 51. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach that shows the formations of all the Hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S since 1878.Notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean due to usual stronger trade winds in that region.






I'm curious what that dot is due east of the Mid Atlantic coastline.
Climate change doubters really aren’t going to like this study

A Washington Post article about this study: A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data

Abstract
Although virtually all experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance.

Quoting 53. Gearsts:

Swarm east of the islands is interesting.
So is the N.W. Caribbean.
Quoting 51. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach that shows the formations of all the Hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S since 1878.Notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean due to usual stronger trade winds in that region.






A persistent easterly low-level jet (generally-for the first half of the season) over the eastern Caribbean removes atmospheric mass. It has to be replaced. Often times this comes from up above (subsidence).

Couple that with what you already mentioned and some folks call this area "the graveyard" for storms.
Quoting 53. Gearsts:

Swarm east of the islands is interesting.


Population/observation bias?
(half-way kidding)
:)


Raining with lightning and thunder over Nassau right now. Wind hasn't been bad so far ... Looks like more to come based on the imagery.....
Afghan Official: 20 Dead as Flash Floods Hits North

Large parts of northern Afghanistan are often afflicted by flooding after heavy rains, as over-grazing and deforestation have made many areas vulnerable to natural disaster.

The environmental degradation, which is largely unchecked across war-torn Afghanistan, has seen deadly landslides caused by heavy rain and snows in recent years.


Link
.
Quoting 51. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach that shows the formations of all the Hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S since 1878.Notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean due to usual stronger trade winds in that region.






Interesting circular hole in the GOM.
Quoting 55. 999Ai2016:

From Phys.org, May 18.

- Climate change, runaway development worsen Houston floods
... Consistent with other studies forecasting more intense and at the same time more localized heavy rainfall events in a warming world.

From this... 2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says
Link



Drought Cripples the South: Why the 'Creeping Disaster' Could Get a Whole Lot Worse Link
"Just as worrying, climate change is expected to further dry out much of the region, potentially multiplying the impacts of population growth and the usual dry spells. What the South is facing may be not just a drought but the first signs of a permanent dry, one to which we'll need to adapt."

Is it me or do they tend to play on the flavor of the day or week at times...
I know climate change is partly to blame for both but these types of articles are generally exploiting current events and have to be taken in that context.

The more we learn the more ignorant we become.

As North sizzles, South, East under threat of heavy rain, floods
Southwest monsoon hits Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Heat wave conditions are continuing at many parts of central and northwest plains--Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha--and the situation is not likely to get better anytime soon.

The highest maximum temperature of 47.5°C has been recorded at Barmer in Rajasthan, says the IMD.


Link

Any idea what is causing the sharp line of demarcation along the southern edge of the clouds?
Quoting 70. BahaHurican:


Any idea what is causing the sharp line of demarcation along the southern edge of the clouds?
Maybe the sinking cooler-drier air from the ULL/Tutt Cell along that line that is drying out the convection at that point:

Quoting 68. Abacosurf:
is it me or do they tend to play on the flavor of the day or week at times...
I know climate change is partly to blame for both but these types of articles are generally exploiting current events and have to be taken in that context.

3 Counterintuitive Connections Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather
(World Ressources Institute)

"3) Climate change can contribute to a double whammy of drought and extreme precipitation in the same location.

As mentioned above, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, fueling more intense rain and snow events. But at the other end of the spectrum, the warming climate can amplify conditions conducive to drought - like heatwaves, evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture. The combination of these two extremes in one location can increase disasters like flooding and landslides, and recent history suggests parts of the United States may already be grappling with these double-whammy impacts.

Since 2010, regions like the Midwest have been impacted by numerous extreme drought and flooding events that have each exceeded $1 billion in losses. Right now, California is in the midst of a drought that researchers have found to be its worst in at least 1,200 years. And while not found to have been caused by climate change, scientists have determined the drought has been driven by record warm temperatures and reduced precipitation. These prolonged warm and dry conditions were then met with an incredible deluge of rainfall in some areas of the state last December (San Francisco received more rain in a matter of days than it did all of 2013) causing flooding and mudslides, washing out roads and damaging homes.


A growing body of evidence shows strong connections between climate change and extreme events, and impacts once thought of as a distant future threat are already occurring and widespread."
Really had a great time out at the Lakefront Airport with the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour.

Got the C-130 Tour, Spoke with the NOAA G 4 Gonzo Pilot too.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 37. Sandcat:

Has anyone read twc synopsis on the likelihood of a Florida landfall this year? It's on twc site. Take it for what it is- conjecture, however statistically speaking it's time and it is an interesting read
Garbage article. Sure, Florida will see hurricane landfalls again in the future. Maybe this year. The article seems to be written in a somewhat sensational manner to attract eyeballs for TWC's advertisers. The liklihood of a landfall in Florida is not something that's "due". With independent trials, that's the gambler's fallacy. One roll of the dice - or even 100 - does not affect the probable outcome of the next roll. It's not like earthquakes where stress builds up along the faults and sooner or later must be released. There's no reservoir of hurricane strength tropical storms building up somewhere waiting to be unleashed. The mention of preparedness toward the end was useful, however.
Quoting 59. wxgeek723:



I'm curious what that dot is due east of the Mid Atlantic coastline.




Was it this one?