WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on November 17, 2010

What may be the final tropical disturbance in the Atlantic (94L) has fizzled, due to dry air and increasing wind shear, and there's an excellent chance that this will be final "Invest" of 2010 in the Caribbean. The 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model is showing a dramatic increase in wind shear over the Caribbean in the coming weeks, which should put an end to the Caribbean hurricane season. However, it's been another remarkably active November in the tropics this year. The formation of Hurricane Tomas this month marks the fourth consecutive year in the Atlantic with a hurricane occurring November 1 or later. We had Category 1 Hurricane Noel in 2007, Category 4 Hurricane Paloma in 2008, Category 2 Hurricane Ida in 2009, and now Category 2 Tomas in 2010. This is the first time since beginning of reliable hurricane records in 1851 that there have been four consecutive years with a late-season November or December hurricane in the Atlantic. The previous record was three straight years, set in 1984 - 1986. It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record--Lenny of 1999 (155 mph winds), Paloma of 2008 (145 mph winds), and Michelle of 2001 (140 mph winds). Of course, the number of storms we are talking about is small, and one cannot say anything scientifically significant about late-season Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers, unless we include storms from late October as well. This was done, though, by Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. Damage on St. Lucia from Hurricane Tomas. Image credit: St. Lucia Star.

Deadly late-season Atlantic tropical cyclones are growing more frequent
In the 500+ years people have been encountering hurricanes in the Atlantic and recording these encounters, we are sure of only twenty November and December storms that have caused loss of life. If we restrict our time window to the past 70 years, when we have a fairly reliable data base of hurricane mortality thanks to the yearly storm summaries published in Monthly Weather Review, we find only ten late-season storms that killed people. Of those ten, seven occurred in the past twenty years, including the second deadliest late-season tropical cyclone on record, Hurricane Gordon of 1994, which killed 1145 people on Haiti. Only the Great Cuba Hurricane of 1932, which killed 3107 people in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas, was a deadlier late-season tropical cyclone. Hurricane Tomas ranks as the 6th deadliest late-season hurricane since 1851 in the Atlantic. The storm left 30 dead or missing on Haiti, at least nine dead on St.Lucia, two on Curacao, and one in the Virgin Islands. The storm has caused hundreds more indirect cholera deaths in Haiti, by spreading contaminated water.


Figure 2. Number of days a named storm existed in the Atlantic during November and December between 1950 and 2010. Years when an El Niño event occurred are not included, in order to make the plot smoother (El Niño events tend to dampen Atlantic hurricane activity during all portions of the season.) There has been a general increase in late-season tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic in recent decades.

The increase in deadly late-season storms in the past twenty years is primarily a Caribbean phenomena. Only two deadly late season hurricanes have affected the U.S. in the past century: Hurricane Kate of 1985, which killed five in Florida, and the 1925 Florida Hurricane, which hit southwest Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on December 1. This remarkable storm was the latest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, and killed 60 people.

Resources
Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008.

A list of the 20 deadly late-season tropical cyclones: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadly_nove mber.asp

My blog post, Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?

Next post
I'll have a new post on Friday.

Help support Portlight.org's efforts to bring some Christmas cheer to the kids of Haiti, by donating to their Christmas in Haiti campaign.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

94L appears to be in for a raise at the next 2.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201094_sat.html
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF HONDURAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY LATE TOMORROW...LIMITING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Global Warming.

Yes I believe it is real.

Yes I believe mankind is causing it.

Yes I think global warming will get worse over the next century and beyond.

Yes I think global warming will cause us a lot of problems.

No I'm not going to participate in this 'debate'. Much of it seems like people flaming each other.

I have a question---has anyone here been converted from one side to the other based on wunderground posts? Anyone?


Yes, I used to believe in global warming. Now I doubt.
Also appears that 94L is reforming a little to the north of the 1pm location.
Quoting pilotguy1:


It is because most climate changes just change where on the globe a certain temperature exists. In other words it just moves the grain belt further North or South. As far as man is concerned we obviously can exist in a wide range of temperatures. All have to acknowledge that far more people die of cold each year than die of heat so warmer is good for man. Whether there are plants or such that cannot be mobile fast enough a serious change certainly will make some specie die off, but then that has going on since the beginning of time.


I agree with what you say and it is logical and reasoned. The only thing I would debate is that diversity of life is what keeps us all alive. Do we know all of the key links that works for us all. Where can we loose a link and not have it adversely affect us? There is a reason why they call it the food chain.

There are changes in nature we cannot control and I am not convinced that we should even try. However, you knew this was coming, we do need to control our collective negative impacts on our environment. Should our impacts on the environment also adversely, at least for us, alter global climate then we need to correct these issues while time remains for us to do so. But, alas, therein lies the problem. We are at odds as to how much of an impact we have had and what we could do to change any of it. This is why I prefer to debate reasoning people of differing viewpoints. You and TampaSpin, for two, of many, are such that meet this criteria. While we differ on viewpoints, we are also capable of sound reasoning ability. I at least hope that I am capable of such. I do not seek to change your thought processes nor will you be able to change mine. What we can do is acquire new knowledge from each other and reason out the data for ourselves. Should we come out on the other side carrying a different viewpoint then it will solely be from the obtaining of new data from an opposing viewpoint. Any such mind change would be of our own doing and not from a continuous feeding of the same, tired data that we have chosen to believe all along. I could debate Neapolitan, but I agree with much of what he says. There would be little for us to debate.

We could do through email so as not to bore or slow the blog. I would hope that TampaSpin would like to join in as well.
Quoting jb410:
RE: #498...

Agreed that WU posts will not change minds, but just out of curiosity, on what do you base the beliefs you just listed?


Scientific evidence. I'm not going to discuss it further. Spending the rest of the day posting charts, graphs, links to papers on O16/O18 ratios, poleward shifts in habitat, temperature records, sea level rises, past CO2 measurements, feedbacks and everything else is just a waste of time.
No way to know if global warming is occuring as we only have records that go back 120 years.
Quoting klaatuborada:


Oh, if this were only true.



LMAO. Impeccable timing.
Gotta run. Back later.
511. jb410
RE: #506...

That is my point. You will not discuss it. You blindly accept it, because it has a label, "scientific." What scientists? How did they gain their knowledge and experience? What is their source of funding? Do they have an agenda? Are their methods reliable? Do you know any of them personally? If not, then on what basis do you put such faith into what they say? Etc, etc, etc.
Quoting Jeff9641:
No way to know if global warming is occuring as we only have records that go back 120 years.


I'll respond to that. We have all sorts of temperature records going back thousands of years.

Shifts in O16/O18 ratios in glacial ice measure temperature accurately. We also know about temperature changes from shifts in habitats of marine organism remains deposited on the seafloor and sampled in cores. We have accounts of growing season lengths and records of ice formation on lakes, and first and last frosts. We have records and archaeological evidence where agriculture in marginal areas has been abandoned where temperatures cooled, such as during the little ice age. We have tree ring records.

So there are many proxy measurements of temperature that go back thousands of years.

Part of the reason I believe in global warming is that the denier side posts nonsense like that comment.

And now I really am out, this 'debate' can continue very well without me.
514. jb410
Also, your charts, graphs, etc do not necessarily mean anything. They are created by falliable human beings, and stats can be twisted.
hmmm interesting debate
Quoting SanLuisValleyGuy:


Respect isn't going to cut it. The 30% of the population that i profiled above will not understand a scientific argument .....


I respect your opinion....
invest 94l is back i am home dancing in the dark!!!!jason saying hi to lady gaga!!
Quoting jb410:
RE: #506...

That is my point. You will not discuss it. You blindly accept it, because it has a label, "scientific." What scientists? How did they gain their knowledge and experience? What is their source of funding? Do they have an agenda? Are their methods reliable? Do you know any of them personally? If not, then on what basis do you put such faith into what they say? Etc, etc, etc.


The debate here is not "is the earth warming/changing?" We know it is warming and changing, that question has been answered. There are no graphs, charts, papers, temperature records, sea level records, past CO2 measurements or habitat shifts which indicate global cooling. Not a single one. So your question about asking why he places his trust into these graphs and charts, etc, is pointless (since this shouldn't be a question about is earth warming) and useless (because there are no graphs or charts, etc, at the moment suggesting any cooling).

The real debate is "is man at fault, and if so, to what extent?" This question we have not answered, and we likely will not be able to answer because we do not fully understand every implication and repercussion of each action we humans take.
Quoting Jeff9641:
No way to know if global warming is occuring as we only have records that go back 120 years.


You are speaking of written records, correct?
Records have been kept long before man appeared on the planet. This planet has kept records that date back to some of its earliest days. You just have to know where to look.
Quoting iammothernature:


The debate here is not "is the earth warming/changing?" We know it is warming and changing, that question has been answered. There are no graphs, charts, papers, temperature records, sea level records, past CO2 measurements or habitat shifts which indicate global cooling. Not a single one. So your question about asking why he places his trust into these graphs and charts, etc, is pointless (since this shouldn't be a question about is earth warming) and useless (because there are no graphs or charts, etc, at the moment suggesting any cooling).

The real debate is "is man at fault, and if so, to what extent?" This question we have not answered, and we likely will not be able to answer because we do not fully understand every implication and repercussion of each action we humans take.


Hit the nail on the head right there, I have to agree with this man
Uhh!! a couple of flare-ups in the Carib.


Well, it may get cold for a bit, but...

Quoting iammothernature:


The debate here is not "is the earth warming/changing?" We know it is warming and changing, that question has been answered. There are no graphs, charts, papers, temperature records, sea level records, past CO2 measurements or habitat shifts which indicate global cooling. Not a single one. So your question about asking why he places his trust into these graphs and charts, etc, is pointless (since this shouldn't be a question about is earth warming) and useless (because there are no graphs or charts, etc, at the moment suggesting any cooling).

The real debate is "is man at fault, and if so, to what extent?" This question we have not answered, and we likely will not be able to answer because we do not fully understand every implication and repercussion of each action we humans take.

beautiful, loving the responces!
This was spoken today by an outgoing member of the United States Congress:

"98 of the doctors say, 'Do this thing,' two say, 'Do the other.' So, it's on the record. And we're here with important decision to be made. There are people who make a lot of money on talk radio and talk TV saying a lot of things. They slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night, and they're experts on climate change. They substitute their judgment for people who have Ph.D.s and work tirelessly [on climate change]. And I would also suggest to...conservatives..., whether you think it's all a bunch of hooey...the Chinese don't. And they plan on eating our lunch in this next century. They plan on innovating around these problems, and selling to us, and the rest of the world, the technology that'll lead the 21st century. So we may just press the pause button here for several years, but China is pressing the fast-forward button. And as a result, if we wake up in several years and we say, 'geez, this didn't work very well for us.'"

The big surprise? This was Rep. Bob Inglis, a Republican from South Carolina. So, you know, good work, guys, on voting out of one of the reasonable voices.
Quoting Jeff9641:
No way to know if global warming is occuring as we only have records that go back 120 years.


We don't have records before 120 previous years, BUT we have records of what we have done for the last 120 years....

1. When in the history of mankind did we had radioactive waste thrown into land and seas??
2. When did we effectuated a massive deforestation before like we are doing today? Remember, no trees no CO2 ---> O2 cycle...
3. When did we had all the modern technological / industrial global system, dependable on burning of fosil fuels???
4. Did our ancestors bury plastics, poisonous metals and all kind of modern waste under the earth using it as a trash can???

We can keep on going with all kind of weird practices of modern society, that have led us to this no way out road.... (up to now)
527. jb410
RE: #518...

Yes, I know that temperature measurements have been on the increase. I obviously did not say it well enough, but that was my point - what charts, graphs, theories, etc can we point to to say that man is making this happen? None. There are too may variables.
Quoting iammothernature:


The real debate is "is man at fault, and if so, to what extent?" This question we have not answered, and we likely will not be able to answer because we do not fully understand every implication and repercussion of each action we humans take.

To a large extent, yes. But given the rapidity with which the planet is warming, climate scientists are increasingly confident that it's indeed being caused by man's activities, as there is absolutely no other obvious force that can be driving such rapid changes. With that in mind, it's pure folly to wait until we are "able to answer" or "fully understand".

When you suddenly gain 30 pounds over the winter, you don't need a thorough physical and a detailed understanding of human metabolism to tell you the half-dozen Kripsy Kreme donuts you eat for breakfast every day probably have something to do with it. If you're even slightly intelligent, you stop eating donuts.
Quoting jb410:
RE: #506...

That is my point. You will not discuss it. You blindly accept it, because it has a label, "scientific." What scientists? How did they gain their knowledge and experience? What is their source of funding? Do they have an agenda? Are their methods reliable? Do you know any of them personally? If not, then on what basis do you put such faith into what they say? Etc, etc, etc.


These are good questions that you ask. I can ask you some of the same questions.

Where did you obtain your knowledge of the subject?
Is your data better than the data the scientist have obtained?
What is your agenda?
Who are your peers of study?
What is your experience for this study?
What was your method for obtaining and evaluating the data?

The point I am trying to make is that no one knows how much pain you feel when you hurt or exactly where the pain is. When it comes and goes or even what type of pain you feel. Do you think you are better qualified to treat yourself or do you refer to someone that has spent years of training to treat what is causing your pain? Surely you can treat yourself, but when the pain persists you will seek the help of professionals, will you not? Those that have studied and learned how to treat you. Their agenda is to make you better AND to make as much money as they can. Does this make them flawed or unreliable?

There are very few doctors living in the poor house.
There are very few scientists living in a $1,000,000 dollar home.
531. jb410
RE: #528...

Again, your point is well taken. On the other hand, if we act on a blind assumption that man is at fault, well, that could mess things up, too. I am calling for deliberate action, not knee-jerk reactions. We must not wait 'til it is too late, as you say, but we must not act rashly, either. I also feel that U.S. sovereignty must be preserved - we must find a way to make changes without giving up that sovereignty.
Seriously  if your breaks failed before and you ran into a person 10 years ago then you run into 10 people talking on your cell phone today, I really don't see the equivalently much less the validity of the "it happened before" excuse.  
533. jb410
RE: #530...

Your questions are valid, however, I am not making any claims that could destroy economies and threaten U.S. sovereignty. That is the difference. These "scientists" that speak on climate - their words could have a big impact on society. I just keep to myself and try my best to run my own life, not the lives of millions...
Personally, I believe debate is useless. It leads nowhere.

If you believe in global warming, and that mankind is the primary cause, then get busy investing in and/or creating the technology that will help reduce it. Stop wasting your time and energy trying to convince someone you're right.

If you don't believe mankind is the primary reason for global warming, what's the harm in letting someone develop environmentally sound technology, which may help offset any impact that mankind may be having.

This is the win-win situation.

I've said for years that the country that comes up with the technology for dealing with human waste and environmental technology will be the country that will literally "clean-up" in the 21st century. If it's not the US, it'll be somebody else.

Unfortunately, the average joe with working wife and a few kids is too busy trying to pay the bills, keep a roof over their heads and figure out how to feed everybody, let alone deal with global warming. Technology is the answer, innovation, technology, ideas, implementation, and most importantly, courage.
Quoting jb410:
RE: #528...

Again, your point is well taken. On the other hand, if we act on a blind assumption that man is at fault, well, that could mess things up, too. I am calling for deliberate action, not knee-jerk reactions. We must not wait 'til it is too late, as you say, but we must not act rashly, either. I also feel that U.S. sovereignty must be preserved - we must find a way to make changes without giving up that sovereignty.

A) At this stage of the game, it's far from a "blind assumption" that man is primarily at fault--and it's becoming less so with each passing day.

B) It's becoming apparent that not making immediate changes puts that very sovereignty in jeopardy, so standing by while we wait for every last 't' to be crossed and every last 'i' to be dotted is, in a word, nuts.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Oooo, can I have a go at blatant generalizations too?

1. You never attend church, you are an atheist
2. You are not a republican. You drink herbal tea.
3. You don't have a girlfriend. If you are female, you don't have a girlfriend.
4. You are white.
5. You think taxes are great as long as you don't have to pay them.
6. You believe in (read understand) evolution, global warming, or sociobiology - you are or recently have been a college student
7. You are not provincial. No one is as good - is as human - as you are. By extension therefore you think anyone living in the US is evil.
8. Your provincial tendencies extend to anyone who disagrees with you.
9. You don't own a Prius, (can't afford it), and secretly wish for a penis extension.
10. You are under 45
11. You believe talking to someone with a gun pointed at you will save you.
12. You are afraid of the "others".
13. You believe that that anyone who only speaks English and lives in the US is inferior.

Enjoy!



TERRIFFIC!!!!!!!1 Very nice job Kat.
Quoting jb410:
RE: #528...

Again, your point is well taken. On the other hand, if we act on a blind assumption that man is at fault, well, that could mess things up, too. I am calling for deliberate action, not knee-jerk reactions. We must not wait 'til it is too late, as you say, but we must not act rashly, either. I also feel that U.S. sovereignty must be preserved - we must find a way to make changes without giving up that sovereignty.


"U.S. sovereignty" Really? Have you looked around you lately? Our borders are unsecured. Our jobs are overseas. Our money is overseas. We still have a flag to salute. Is that the sovereignty that you speak of?

We are already losing out to world interests because of our inactions here. Are we to also be the last nation to try to circumvent GW? Now that is sovereignty to pass along to your grandchildren.

Sorry. I did not want to get on my soapbox. I will step down and sit down.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Personally, I believe debate is useless. It leads nowhere.

If you believe in global warming, and that mankind is the primary cause, then get busy investing in and/or creating the technology that will help reduce it. Stop wasting your time and energy trying to convince someone you're right.

If you don't believe mankind is the primary reason for global warming, what's the harm in letting someone develop environmentally sound technology, which may help offset any impact that mankind may be having.

This is the win-win situation.

I've said for years that the country that comes up with the technology for dealing with human waste and environmental technology will be the country that will literally "clean-up" in the 21st century. If it's not the US, it'll be somebody else.

Unfortunately, the average joe with working wife and a few kids is too busy trying to pay the bills, keep a roof over their heads and figure out how to feed everybody, let alone deal with global warming. Technology is the answer, innovation, technology, ideas, implementation, and most importantly, courage.


Damn Kat, that's two. Another good job.
539. jb410
RE: #535...

You might be right... on the other hand, like klaatuborada said, I am too busy trying to run my own life to really have the time to study the matter carefully. Still have to put bread on the table... Peace.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Damn Kat, that's two. Another good job.


ty. I have to get back to work. Nice squawking with you.
I dont care about "sovereignty." I care about the founding principles of individual civil liberties as outlined in the US constitution and Declaration of Independence. That is actually the foundation of this country.

Nationalism is common the world over. There is nothing special in that. None of us are probably from here really anyway - if you go back far enough, If I was going to be nationalistic id probably place allegiance  elsewhere.


It comes down to this if you are a Democrat then you believe we are doomed buy GW and the forces of Al Gore. If you are a Republican then you believe GW is unknown and not proven and on that note we say Drill baby Drill or you are Sarah Palin and you don't know where Russia is.
543. jb410
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


"U.S. sovereignty" Really? Have you looked around you lately? Our borders are unsecured. Our jobs are overseas. Our money is overseas. We still have a flag to salute. Is that the sovereignty that you speak of?

We are already losing out to world interests because of our inactions here. Are we to also be the last nation to try to circumvent GW? Now that is sovereignty to pass along to your grandchildren.

Sorry. I did not want to get on my soapbox. I will step down and sit down.


You are quite correct. However, that is another story. Suffice to say that I would see U.S. sovereignty preserved on ALL fronts, borders, economy, etc. Just did not want to go that far here or now...
The thing is we infringe on others by altering the environment collectively in socially organized regulatory groups and institutions. Personally you can go burn whatever you want too, as long as it doesn't harm someone, but as a group reasonable decisions have to be made when it influences the freedoms and life quality of others.
Quoting Jeff9641:
It comes down to this if you are a Democrat then you believe we are doomed buy GW and the forces of Al Gore. If you are a Republican then you believe GW is unknown and not proven and on that note we say Drill baby Drill or you are Sarah Palin and you don't know where Russia is.


That's why I'm "Undeclared" and now I'm really out.
Quoting klaatuborada:


That's why I'm "Undeclared"


Now that's a good stance!

Quoting Jeff9641:
It comes down to this if you are a Democrat then you believe we are doomed buy GW and the forces of Al Gore. If you are a Republican then you believe GW is unknown and not proven and on that note we say Drill baby Drill or you are Sarah Palin and you don't know where Russia is.



I have yet to read or see one Al Gore piece.
548. jb410
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont care about "sovereignty." I care about the founding principles of individual civil liberties as outlined in the US constitution and Declaration of Independence. That is actually the foundation of this country.

Nationalism is common the world over. There is nothing special in that. None of us are probably from here really anyway - if you go back far enough, If I was going to be nationalistic id probably place allegiance  elsewhere.




Wow. I am really not making myself clear, today. I agree with you 100%. I am an individualist of the Ayn Rand variety. The reason I bring up sovereignty is not for nationalism, but because I still believe that the U.S. is the best hope of preserving individual rights, capitalism, etc.

By the way, this is why I ususally prefer face to face coversation - it is hard to say everything you want to on these blogs...
Quoting Jeff9641:
It comes down to this if you are a Democrat then you believe we are doomed buy GW and the forces of Al Gore. If you are a Republican then you believe GW is unknown and not proven and on that note we say Drill baby Drill or you are Sarah Palin and you don't know where Russia is.


Republican or Democrat? What does that have to do with anything? Do you suggest that if you are a Republican you can agree only one way? Do you suggest the same of the Democrats? Should that be the case them I am even MORE proud that I am an Independent that is quite capable of thinking for myself and do not feel forced to follow the mindset of my "leaders". I prefer to review ALL of the data and I trust that I can make an informed decision based on all of the data. You will someday find that it is impossible to make an INFORMED decision when all you have is half of the data. That is why you rely on a party leadership to inform you?
Link
Interesting we had a wind gust of nearly 44mph this afternoon
551. jb410
And I believe in nullification... jury and otherwise...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Republican or Democrat? What does that have to do with anything? Do you suggest that if you are a Republican you can agree only one way? Do you suggest the same of the Democrats? Should that be the case them I am even MORE proud that I am an Independent that is quite capable of thinking for myself and do not feel forced to follow the mindset of my "leaders". I prefer to review ALL of the data and I trust that I can make an informed decision based on all of the data. You will someday find that it is impossible to make an INFORMED decision when all you have is half of the data. That is why you rely on a party leadership to inform you?


That is correct why do you think we have so many problems in Congress. Kinda like this blog as you can clearly tell what everyone's party affiliation is.
Dr M: "Deadly late-season Atlantic tropical cyclones are growing more frequent"

Umm, needs a "while population in the way of late season hurricanes growing more dense and well-distributed" appended to it.

JMO. Worthless, otherwise.

How is this different "from the number of tornado deaths went up from the 40s to the 90s"? Or "the number of medical emergencies per day has gone up in Miami-Dade county over the last 100 years"?

Sry, for the fly-by, but, L8R.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dr M: "Deadly late-season Atlantic tropical cyclones are growing more frequent"

Umm, needs a "while population in the way of late season hurricanes growing more dense and well-distributed" appended to it.

JMO. Worthless, otherwise.

How is this different "from the number of tornado deaths went up from the 40s to the 90s"? Or "the number of medical emergencies per day has gone up in Miami-Dade county over the last 100 years"?

Sry, for the fly-by, but, L8R.


LOL! Good one!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


That is correct why do you think we have so many problems in Congress. Kinda like this blog as you can clearly tell what everyone's party affiliation is.


My apologies to you and the blog. Partisan politics is what keeps otherwise sane people from having a sane conversation. Partisan politics is also a way for party leaders to keep us fighting amongst ourselves so that we are not fighting them. The problems we face are not partisan. Only the approaches we take are partisan. That gets us nowhere.
Oh no. I killed the blog!

Quietly sneaks out of room asking how cold it is going to get tonight.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Oh no. I killed the blog!

Quietly sneaks out of room asking how cold it is going to get tonight.

ASK and you shall receive!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:



Thanks man. I needed that.

Now I am off to find another blanket.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


My apologies to you and the blog. Partisan politics is what keeps otherwise sane people from having a sane conversation. Partisan politics is also a way for party leaders to keep us fighting amongst ourselves so that we are not fighting them. The problems we face are not partisan. Only the approaches we take are partisan. That gets us nowhere.


No need to apologize. In my eyes we are all brothers no matter what our background is or what our political stance may be. It's good to have these types of discussions as long as they are civil. Oh by the way it seems the GFS is backing off on the cold snap next week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Cyclone Reports

Tropical Storm COLIN

Tropical Storm FIONA

Tropical Storm GASTON


Hurricane LISA

A snippet of the Ft Worth Area Forecast Discussion..Read it and weep :O)!!!!

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS HARD TO
PIN DOWN AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

THE AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE AS A
COMBINATION OF ALASKAN AND NORTHERN CANADIAN AIR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. OUR
EXPERIENCE...AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL BIAS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASSES...INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE FASTER AND BE COLDER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES. FOR THESE REASONS...

WE/VE DECIDED TO BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE GFS TIMING...AND USE THE ECMWF THERMO PROFILE FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. WE WILL ALSO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND 50S ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH MORNINGS.

SINCE THIS EVENT IS STILL A WAYS OUT...OUR CONFIDENCE IN WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL TIMING IS MODERATE AT BEST AS IT COULD ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT OR HANG UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND DENSE WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE.
Quoting Bordonaro:

ASK and you shall receive!!!


Hey Bord!

See the updated forecast for here in Fort Worth?

31 °F on Wednesday Night, with a high of only 51 °F on Thursday!



CBS 11/TXA 21:


High's in the Lower 40s?!

FOX 4:


Doesn't go out to Thanksgiving

WFAA 8:


Same as CBS 11/TXA 21!?


Quoting Bordonaro:

A snippet of the Ft Worth Area Forecast Discussion..Read it and weep :O)!!!!

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS HARD TO
PIN DOWN AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

THE AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE AS A
COMBINATION OF ALASKAN AND NORTHERN CANADIAN AIR...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. OUR
EXPERIENCE...AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL BIAS WITH ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE FASTER AND BE
COLDER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES. FOR THESE REASONS...

WE/VE
DECIDED TO BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE GFS TIMING...AND USE THE ECMWF THERMO PROFILE FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. WE
WILL ALSO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND 50S ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH MORNINGS.

SINCE THIS EVENT IS STILL A WAYS OUT...OUR CONFIDENCE IN
WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL TIMING IS MODERATE AT BEST AS IT COULD ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR HANG UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT
THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND DENSE WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE.


lol, see my post that comes right before this! :P
By the Grace of God, I forecasted this temperature scheme 3 days ago while the NWS was "too conservative" to post anything..

I believe will will be near 27/45F on Thursday and about 29F/53F on Friday at this point.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Well, it may get cold for a bit, but...


#522..We may see above normal temps over the Southern Plains, however me may be 50/72F one day and 26/42F the next throughout the month of December. It's the La Nina "roller coaster"!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


No need to apologize. In my eyes we are all brothers no matter what our background is or what our political stance may be. It's good to have these types of discussions as long as they are civil. Oh by the way it seems the GFS is backing off on the cold snap next week.


Thanks, Jeff. I will keep the extra blanket handy, just in case. The waterbed is already set to 90F. Do you think 90C would be too much?
567. IKE
HPC day 7.....arctic front makes it into the SE USA.....

Wednesday before the Arctic front reaches N Texas:


What am i missing besides Vorticity?
Thursday 11-25-10 at 12 Noon, BRRRRRR:
Give me a few and i will have 94L's updated graphics back up on the Web.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Thursday 11-25-10 at 12 Noon, BRRRRRR:


I would expect to see some very harsh Weather in the advance of that cold air colliding with the very warm air....probably some major boomers coming.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I would expect to see some very harsh Weather in the advance of that cold air colliding with the very warm air....probably some major boomers coming.

It will be interesting to see what the sheer model maps for WED 11-24-10 will be!!!!!
575. DVG
Quoting klaatuborada:
Personally, I believe debate is useless. It leads nowhere.

If you believe in global warming, and that mankind is the primary cause, then get busy investing in and/or creating the technology that will help reduce it. Stop wasting your time and energy trying to convince someone you're right.

If you don't believe mankind is the primary reason for global warming, what's the harm in letting someone develop environmentally sound technology, which may help offset any impact that mankind may be having.

This is the win-win situation.

I've said for years that the country that comes up with the technology for dealing with human waste and environmental technology will be the country that will literally "clean-up" in the 21st century. If it's not the US, it'll be somebody else.

Unfortunately, the average joe with working wife and a few kids is too busy trying to pay the bills, keep a roof over their heads and figure out how to feed everybody, let alone deal with global warming. Technology is the answer, innovation, technology, ideas, implementation, and most importantly, courage.


I agree with you. It's those who wish to use this issue for political change I object to.
Looks like a cold turkey day for some...

Can someone define "global warming" for me? To me it means the Earth is getting warmer.. And if that is the case, it seems to be true on a pure literal sense. I guess the debate is whether it is part of a normal cycle or not?

To those that think the debate is worthless, I disagree. I enjoy the banter back and forth. As with most things in my life, I am a centrist so I learn something from "both sides" of the arguement. And yes, I probably could be swayed either way.
Quoting IKE:
HPC day 7.....arctic front makes it into the SE USA.....




94l 30% at 7pm???
Quoting klaatuborada:
Personally, I believe debate is useless. It leads nowhere.

If you believe in global warming, and that mankind is the primary cause, then get busy investing in and/or creating the technology that will help reduce it. Stop wasting your time and energy trying to convince someone you're right.

If you don't believe mankind is the primary reason for global warming, what's the harm in letting someone develop environmentally sound technology, which may help offset any impact that mankind may be having.

This is the win-win situation.

I've said for years that the country that comes up with the technology for dealing with human waste and environmental technology will be the country that will literally "clean-up" in the 21st century. If it's not the US, it'll be somebody else.

Unfortunately, the average joe with working wife and a few kids is too busy trying to pay the bills, keep a roof over their heads and figure out how to feed everybody, let alone deal with global warming. Technology is the answer, innovation, technology, ideas, implementation, and most importantly, courage.

even if global warming isn't real, the world's oil supply will be depleted in 40 years. we need to get a move on finding alternative fuels.
Quoting stormpetrol:
94l 30% at 7pm???
Nope. Still at 20 %.
Quoting stormpetrol:
94l 30% at 7pm???

Unfortunately, no!!
FYI : There seems to be a methane spike showing up at a few atmospheric stations - methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2.

Not verified yet, but looking more plausible as more stations start to record the Anomaly:



Its been theorized that warming could cause large releases in the arctic.
Quoting TampaSpin:


What am i missing besides Vorticity?

Common sense Tampa.Common sense
new t.storm in the center!!
One thing I notice with 94L this evening even during D/min it is maintaining or even growing in convection!
Quoting stormpetrol:
One thing I notice with 94L this evening even during D/min it is maintaining or even growing in convection!

The southwesterly wind shear is ventilating 94L nicely.

The main question is will 94L develop before moving into Belize and Central America????

Quite a change in the vorticity map from 3 hours ago, at least in the area of 94L
593. txjac
Wow, looks like its going to be getting a bit nippy. Can't complain though ...this has been the ultimate fall/autumn that I can remember here in Houston
595. txjac
@ Dakster ...post 576

I'm with Dak on this one. I love the debates that I see/hear on the blog ..I'm pretty central myself and can be swayed ...I can always learn something though.

Love to hear all sides
Quoting txjac:
Wow, looks like its going to be getting a bit nippy. Can't complain though ...this has been the ultimate fall/autumn that I can remember here in Houston

It appears TX will receive a glancing blow, UNLESS the model forecasts change :O)
Quoting Jeff9641:


That is correct why do you think we have so many problems in Congress. Kinda like this blog as you can clearly tell what everyone's party affiliation is.
I think is easier to assess whose conservative and who is liberal or progressive thinker.
599. txjac
Anything below 65 F is cold to me Bord ...lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

impressive blow up of convection
Quoting txjac:
Anything below 65 F is cold to me Bord ...lol

Sorry, gotta love Texas weather. It will be cold Thursday and Friday and it may be in the 70's on Monday!!!
ATCF says the pressure is still high, but much lower than it was earlier today. Running out of growing room, though...:

AL, 94, 2010111900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 858W, 25, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
All I care about is the weather for the race on Sunday at Homestead.
I long fer the days when the Highlight of my Day was Daffy Duck and Bugs.
Quoting Bordonaro:

It appears TX will receive a glancing blow, UNLESS the model forecasts change :O)
Good evening Bord...I will get my two tropical cyclones before 2011 Bord........I will.....................That is a rather large wad of dry air over the Caribbean Sea though..:)
94L looking impressive nevertheless
Look like 94L developing on the end of a front, these usually move ENE/NE if they develop
Quoting Patrap:
I long fer the days when the Highlight of my Day was Daffy Duck and Bugs.


and Sky King/Lone Ranger...
Hydrus, anything is possible..

We have had the coolest summer in S CA, then it hits 100F in San Diego..

We had tornadoes in Flagstaff, AZ, golf ball sized hail in Phoenix..

And there were two EF-1 tornadoes on 11/17/10 during the middle of the night near Albany, NY and in Baltimore, MD..

MN & TX were tied in the tornado department..

We had the strongest Great Lakes storm on record with 61 tornado reports..

And yes, you may get 2 more tropical cyclones before the end of the year..
Quoting stormpetrol:
Look like 94L developing on the end of a front, these usually move ENE/NE if they develop
November storms do seem to whack Cuba quite a bit.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


and Sky King/Lone Ranger...

or even Go ahead, make my day punk
we have completed the update of the blog page to a full winter weather page with severe section as we come to the end of 2010 atlantic hurricane season two areas the NHC TWO and LSU sat images will be the final 2 sections till nov 30 7pm TWO the full tropical section will start to return to the page on april 15,2011 thanks for all who visited the tropical page over the summer and i hope to see you return next season.

drop by for a visit over the winter all info is self updating except model animations those i have to work on

Link
Quoting Bordonaro:
Hydrus, anything is possible..

We have had the coolest summer in S CA, then it hits 100F in San Diego..

We had tornadoes in Flagstaff, AZ, golf ball sized hail in Phoenix..

And there were two EF-1 tornadoes on 11/17/10 during the middle of the night near Albany, NY and in Baltimore, MD..

MN & TX were tied in the tornado department..

We had the strongest Great Lakes storm on record with 61 tornado reports..

And yes, you may get 2 more tropical cyclones before the end of the year..
And I mention Tomas forming out by the Windward Islands so late in the season..
Quoting Patrap:
I long fer the days when the Highlight of my Day was Daffy Duck and Bugs.

LOL, now those were the days!
94L is intesifying right now and is beginning to look very well. I think Virginie is on the way.
Some models showing a TS in the Gulf. LOL! That would be crazy!
94L has the look of Paula but a little bigger.
Quoting Jeff9641:
94L is intesifying right now and is beginning to look very well. I think Virginie is on the way.
I,m sure the name "Virginie" will perpetuate a great sense of urgency down there if warnings go up.......Then again maybe not...;0
621. WXTXN
"Nature will find a way..." Michael Crichton
Quoting WXTXN:
"Nature will find a way..." Michael Crichton


Against all odds! Impressive 94L this evening.
One this is for there is another surge of tropical moisture moving NW across S.A. and appears to be heading for the Caribbean. So one would think this moisture will eventually find it's way across the SE US.
Amazing to see all of this moisture congelling into the Caribbean. Look at all the moisture coming off South America.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
FYI: I'm ignoring anyone that posts a 56 megapixel image directly inline with the thread for the heck of it, just because the computer I use to browse the net I doesn't not have the spare 450MB just for that person's image alone.
Both seem to be in more favorable conditions now.


xx/INV/94L
MARK
17.76N/85.90W
Quoting hydrus:
I,m sure the name "Virginie" will perpetuate a great sense of urgency down there if warnings go up.......Then again maybe not...;0



I got it, oh "experienced one". LOL.

Good evening, ya rascal.
OK...Who's in charge here?!?!
whata ya want now
ah...KOG...I feel better knowin' you're here...
iam sure ya do
gettin kinda quiet in here now with just 11 to go
Quoting CrazyDuke:
FYI: I'm ignoring anyone that posts a 56 megapixel image directly inline with the thread for the heck of it, just because the computer I use to browse the net I doesn't not have the spare 450MB just for that person's image alone.


Refresh, wait a couple of seconds, then press ESC or click the red X on the menu bar. That will stop the pics from loading but you'll still get the text.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
FYI : There seems to be a methane spike showing up at a few atmospheric stations - methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2.

Not verified yet, but looking more plausible as more stations start to record the Anomaly:



Its been theorized that warming could cause large releases in the arctic.


Ya better hope it is an error! Mother nature, does not care who is watching, or what they think ........

Yahoo Wed Nov 17, 2:20 pm ET Link
Poll: Most Republicans don't believe in climate change

A new Pew poll shows a dramatic change in opinion on climate change among Republicans that seems to mirror a new tone on the issue taken up by GOP politicians.

In the poll, 53 percent of Republicans said there is no evidence for climate change, when only three years ago 62 percent of GOPers said they did believe in global warming. Almost 80 percent of Democrats and a majority of independents said there is solid evidence for global warming.

Overall, 59 percent of adults thought there was good evidence that the planet is warming, and 34 percent said global warming is mostly caused by human activity. Both numbers are down steeply from 2006.
Quoting presslord:
OK...Who's in charge here?!?!



No one, Press. What it be?
Quoting presslord:
OK...Who's in charge here?!?!

For most part of the day:

Global Warming
Quoting sunlinepr:

For most part of the day:

Global Warming


Evening, Sunline.
Swirl, or just transient pseudo-swirl illusion? Interesting either way...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Ossqss:


Ya better hope it is an error! Mother nature, does not care who is watching, or what they think ........

the methane will reach critical mass dec.21,2012!!!!!
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
the methane will reach critical mass dec.21,2012!!!!!



LMAO. Nice. Humor is a necessary ingredient in the human condition, imo.
Quoting Ossqss:
....


Imagine the amount of CH4 available!!!
Quoting presslord:
OK...Who's in charge here?!?!


StormW!LOL!
Comment removed!
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
the methane will reach critical mass dec.21,2012!!!!!


LOL, methane can be, well , see for yourself ;)

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



LMAO. Nice. Humor is a necessary ingredient in the human condition, imo.
what humor? on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane it has been covering for millions of years. at the same time massive underwater earth slides of hydrate will release all they have stored up for millions of years. someone somewhere will strike a match and we'll all go off like a roman candle. all because of GW lol
Quoting Jeff9641:


StormW!LOL!


His personal life aside, he's a far better forecaster and teacher than you. His private paying clients probably think so too.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
what humor? on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane it has been covering for millions of years. at the same time massive underwater earth slides of hydrate will release all they have stored up for millions of years. someone somewhere will strike a match and we'll all go off like a roman candle. all because of GW lol


Hopefully the methan can lightup Al Gore.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:

641 the methane will reach critical mass dec.21,2012!!!!!

648 on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane..

OK, which is it? I need to make some plans...;-)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hopefully the methan can lightup Al Gore.
he's looking for a way to make a profit!!!!
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
what humor? on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane it has been covering for millions of years. at the same time massive underwater earth slides of hydrate will release all they have stored up for millions of years. someone somewhere will strike a match and we'll all go off like a roman candle. all because of GW lol



I appreciate the detailed description. Stored hydrates are a bxxxh. lol
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
what humor? on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane it has been covering for millions of years. at the same time massive underwater earth slides of hydrate will release all they have stored up for millions of years. someone somewhere will strike a match and we'll all go off like a roman candle. all because of GW lol


But that ain't the end.

Alien Invasion will take effect before the huge Comet strikes the Pacific including the gravity effect on the poles of Planet x. Then the Solar Flair will cause a Polar shift, activating Super Volcanoes, tsunamis and Black holes....

Sure man....

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:

641 the methane will reach critical mass dec.21,2012!!!!!

648 on dec.20,2012 the arctic will pop it's cork & release all the methane..

OK, which is it? I need to make some plans...;-)
the release begins on the 20th and reaches critical mass on the 21st
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


His personal life aside, he's a far better forecaster and teacher than you. His private paying clients probably think so too.


Yeah I bet! Too bad we never see a forecast from you. Last time I checked I'm not a paid meteorologist so it's fine to give my hypothesis. This is just a hobby for me.
Quoting sunlinepr:


But that ain't the end.

Which is it going to be?

Alien Invasion will take effect before the huge Comet strikes the Pacific including the gravity effect on the poles of Planet x. Then the Solar Flair will cause a Polar shift, activating Super Volcanoes, tsunamis and Black holes....

Sure man....

u forgot man's own stupidity of also being able too destroy the world
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


His personal life aside, he's a far better forecaster and teacher than you. His private paying clients probably think so too.


One would ask what relevance anything aside from accurate, tropical, predictive, information from someone who has done an outstanding job of such, is worth????

Take a look in the mirror folks!

Most of you are not what anyone would call " Main Stream" , don't ya think ? LoL


Heavy, what I initially thought was a light hearted exchange, has turned serious?
Quoting Ossqss:


One would ask what relevance anything aside from accurate, tropical, predictive, information from someone, who has done an outstanding job of such, is worth????

Take a look in the mirror folks!

Most of you are not what anyone would call " Main Stream" , don't ya think ? LoL


Anybody who pays for a StormW forecast is crazy!
Quoting sunlinepr:


But that ain't the end.

Alien Invasion will take effect before the huge Comet strikes the Pacific including the gravity effect on the poles of Planet x. Then the Solar Flair will cause a Polar shift, activating Super Volcanoes, tsunamis and Black holes....

Sure man....



I can handle all that. Just begin to worry when your mother-in-law moves in with you. Scary, huh?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Anybody who pays for a StormW forecast is crazy!


Do you pay list price for your smart phone accessories? I bet you do :)
Quoting Grothar:


I can handle all that. Just begin to worry when your mother-in-law moves in with you. Scary, huh?


Oh no! I dread that day!!
Complete Update

Does 94L remind anybody of anyone.. it just won't go away.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting Ossqss:


One would ask what relevance anything aside from accurate, tropical, predictive, information from someone who has done an outstanding job of such, is worth????

Take a look in the mirror folks!

Most of you are not what anyone would call " Main Stream" , don't ya think ? LoL


Hey, OSS, is it too late for us to change our predictions we made with you at the beginning of the season. LOL I was just a little off. I think I said 22 systems.
Quoting Ossqss:


Do you pay list price for your smart phone accessories? I bet you do :)


Smart phone! I wish my I-Phone would stop dropping calls.
hey guys I see that 94L is back online and doin well
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, methane can be, well , see for yourself ;)



Crazy guys, like always.... they really enjoy their job....


Click to enlarge
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I see that 94L is back online and doin well


Looks like Paula Wunderkid.
671. JLPR2
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
u forgot man's own stupidity of also being able too destroy the world


I just read some scientists created hydrogen Antimatter. :|

And it begins... LOL!

----------------
Hiya everyone, its been a few days.
Dolphins wake up DAMM! Come on!!
Quoting Grothar:


I can handle all that. Just begin to worry when your mother-in-law moves in with you. Scary, huh?


Oh Boy, a touchy subject..... 4 months of unannounced, surprise living as such, ends next WED. Please pray the train leaves Sanford on time ;)
Quoting Grothar:


I can handle all that. Just begin to worry when your mother-in-law moves in with you. Scary, huh?


She's living here with me (2nd floor).... She won't hear me now, cause she's chating with her grandfather right now.... (they always do that till late at night)....
Quoting Jeff9641:


Smart phone! I wish my I-Phone would stop dropping calls.


Switch hands, no BS :)
676. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


I can handle all that. Just begin to worry when your mother-in-law moves in with you. Scary, huh?


Heh... Ask my father, he's been there for 23years. LOL!
yes Jeff9641 and may pull off the same type track except N of Grand Cayman and to North-Central Cuba which looks to be more rain for us
Quoting Ossqss:


Oh Boy, a touchy subject..... 4 months of unannounced, surprise living as such, ends next WED. Please pray the train leaves Sanford on time ;)


Sorry, but I heard that line has a lot of cancellations. LOL
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I bet! Too bad we never see a forecast from you. Last time I checked I'm not a paid meteorologist so it's fine to give my hypothesis. This is just a hobby for me.


Yeah that's fine man; do your own thing. I'm here for a lot of things but doing my own forecasting is not one of them - it would just be more wild speculation which this blog certainly doesn't need any more of. So it's really not too bad after all...
Quoting JLPR2:


Heh... Ask my father, he's been there for 23years. LOL!


Bet he doesn't talk much!
681. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Bet he doesn't talk much!


Its like he has developed some sort of immunity and ignores almost everything she says. :P
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, but I heard that line has a lot of cancellations. LOL




Gnite all !
Quoting Ossqss:


Most of you are not what anyone would call " Main Stream" , don't ya think ? LoL


Problem is, they think they are. I also come for the entertainment :-)
Quoting sunlinepr:


She's living here with me (2nd floor).... She won't hear me now, cause she's chating with her grandfather right now.... (they always do that till late at night)....


Your mother-in-law's grandfather???

I think, If I remember correctly my mother-in-law grandfather died in the 1890's.
Grothar!

(with a side of Oss! Wassup!)
Quoting JLPR2:


Its like he has developed some sort of immunity and ignores almost everything she says. :P


Yes, that is what is commonly known as "survival technique". I believe we develop that particular gene over time.
687. JLPR2


ITCZ acting up.
Quoting Grothar:


Your mother-in-law's grandfather???

I think, If I remember correctly my mother-in-law grandfather died in the 1890's.


I don't know what is preserving them, but every night they sit down to chat and drink a bottle of Bayleys....
Quoting Grothar:


Your mother-in-law's grandfather???

I think, If I remember correctly my mother-in-law grandfather died in the 1890's.


Yes, but sunlinepr is not older then dirty like you are :)
Good evening all.

C-ATL is looking peppy tonight. Wonder if we'll see some late season E-ATL storms this year?

Quoting atmoaggie:
Grothar!

(with a side of Oss! Wassup!)


Yo, atmo!. Long time, no insults. How you doing? Just flew in from PHL. Didn't think we would still be looking at the tropics this time of year. Things going pretty here.
692. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, that is what is commonly known as "survival technique". I believe we develop that particular gene over time.


Ha! XD
But my grandma is really something else. Jaw dropping at times. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't know what is preserving them, but every night they sit down to chat and drink a bottle of Bayleys....


Think they got the answer. LOL
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Problem is, they think they are. I also come for the entertainment :-)


Seconded! Tough crowd tonight.
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, atmo!. Long time, no insults. How you doing? Just flew in from PHL. Didn't think we would still be looking at the tropics this time of year. Things going pretty here.
Been very busy lately, myself...

Not sure what the tropics are gonna do...seems like there is one more out there...
wednesday early morning the temps in Puerto Rico were cold!!! in Arecibo (a northern coastaln city) the temp went down to 49 degrees!!!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Tough crowd tonight.


Beware - the fans will be failing due to system overload soon.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, but sunlinepr is not older then dirty like you are :)


Sorry, but they just found some about 4 billion years old. Just slightly older than I, here is the link. LOL (Up to mischief again, I see) How you doing, Orca? Been away for a while myself.)Link
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, but they just found some about 4 billion years old. Just slightly older than I, here is the link. LOL (Up to mischief again, I see) How you doing, Orca? Been away for a while myself.)Link


I have been working to hard for someone my age :(
Beautiful days and nights here in PR....



Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Beware - the fans will be failing due to system overload soon.



LOL! At the very least, we can converse in code.
Interesting avatar Atmo.

And I thought Uranus was big??
Quoting atmoaggie:
Grothar!

(with a side of Oss! Wassup!)


Howdy ATMO, thought you would like to read this blog relevant link I posted earlier that was probably negatived out by the posse one me :) Sent from my Droid X

Be well all ~~~ and out~~~

http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/11/2561/pdf
Quoting atmoaggie:
Been very busy lately, myself...

Not sure what the tropics are gonna do...seems like there is one more out there...


Or more. Did you happen to catch the video on post #635 on the MEthane as the British call it? Interesting.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Interesting avatar Atmo.

And I thought Uranus was big??
Mine? Or my mother-in-law's?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Interesting avatar Atmo.

And I thought Uranus was big??


Hey atmo, looks like I got an ally. Wish I had thought of that line. Guess old age is really letting me slip with the zingers.
Quoting Grothar:


Or more. Did you happen to catch the video on post #635 on the MEthane as the British call it? Interesting.

I did. Looks like fun!
Quoting Ossqss:


Howdy ATMO, thought you would like to read this blog relevant link I posted earlier that was probably negatived out by the posse one me :) Sent from my Droid X

Be well all ~~~ and out~~~

http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/11/2561/pdf


Hey OSS, thought you hit the sack. LMAO with that picture you posted. Just can't stay away from the night shift, eh?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey atmo, looks like I got an ally. Wish I had thought of that line. Guess old age is really letting me slip with the zingers.
Wasn't that good...I'm 5' 6" and ~140...hard to be bothered much by that one...
Miami damm what happened today. Bears are putting the beat down on Miami.
Ehh, I wasn't, but apparently everything is on topic...

Seen this one? A Louisiana cat, of course. The gator? Unknown, but might be related to Meyer... *wink*

Quoting atmoaggie:
Ehh, I wasn't, but apparently everything in on topic...

Seen this one? A Louisiana cat, of course. The gator? Unknown, but might be related to Meyer... *wink*




LOL! I saw this on our local news yesterday. Very funny. This illustrates the Gators ball play this year.
Lucky 6,000th post!!
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
wednesday early morning the temps in Puerto Rico were cold!!! in Arecibo (a northern coastaln city) the temp went down to 49 degrees!!!
Are you sure, at the coast it went, that low? There must be a mistake , I'm on the mountains and the coldest it has been is 60. And Last year in Adjuntas the highest town in the island it went donwt to 45 degree, and it broke a record.
FSU runs the table and Gators end up in the Independence Bowl.
Quoting Jeff9641:
FSU runs the table and Gators end up in the Independence Bowl.
In beautiful Shreveport!
(In my 30+ years around here, I've only driven through Shreveport when going somewhere interesting...never TO Shreveport)
132 hrs Mid Atl GFS (Nov. 26)

Quoting jurakantaino:
Are you sure, at the coast it went, that low? There must be a mistake , I'm on the mountains and the coldest it has been is 60. And Last year in Adjuntas the highest town in the island it went donwt to 45 degree, and it broke a record.

I'm pretty sure!!! it went by the news and it were reported by The Radio Telescope's Observatory in Arecibo!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:
6,000th post!!


From and including: Wednesday, November 4, 2009
To, but not including : Friday, November 19, 2010

It is 380 days from the start date to the end date, but not including the end date

Or 1 year, 15 days excluding the end date
Alternative time units
380 days can be converted to one of these units:

* 32,832,000 seconds
* 547,200 minutes
* 9120 hours
* 54 weeks (rounded down)

6000/380= 15.79 Comments per day
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

I'm pretty sure!!! it went by the news and it were reported by The Radio Telescope's Observatory in Arecibo!!!
Maybe it only felt that cold since you forgot your shirt?
721. xcool
heyyyy
Anyone know why all the raleighwx sites are down? Cannot connect to any of them.
Quoting sunlinepr:


From and including: Wednesday, November 4, 2009
To, but not including : Friday, November 19, 2010

It is 380 days from the start date to the end date, but not including the end date

Or 1 year, 15 days excluding the end date
Alternative time units
380 days can be converted to one of these units:

* 32,832,000 seconds
* 547,200 minutes
* 9120 hours
* 54 weeks (rounded down)

6000/380= 15.79 Comments per day
Wait, what about the average time per post, total time used posting here, and the other things one could have done with that amount of time?

I prolly could have built a home...or 5.
Quoting xcool:
heyyyy
hey 'cool.
Quoting xcool:
heyyyy


Stop yelling. We can hear you. How's it going xcool?
Quoting sunlinepr:


From and including: Wednesday, November 4, 2009
To, but not including : Friday, November 19, 2010

It is 380 days from the start date to the end date, but not including the end date

Or 1 year, 15 days excluding the end date
Alternative time units
380 days can be converted to one of these units:

* 32,832,000 seconds
* 547,200 minutes
* 9120 hours
* 54 weeks (rounded down)

6000/380= 15.79 Comments per day


That's about right!LOL
Quoting xcool:
heyyyy
heyyyy back at u . r u enjoying the COOL weather?
Jeff Can you start talking about something else besides hurricanes? You all blew the landfall forecast and overall the season was a bust for all the storm chasers. Move on, its cold outside!
729. xcool
i hate it
730. xcool
back later new updatee
717 hope that gets blown to pieces.


A link for the soul.



Link
PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting ZootSuitRiot:
717 hope that gets blown to pieces.


Don't worry, it's GFS...
The 2010 hurricane season will be officially over in 12 days. But do not let your guard down yet. With luck we will make it through these final days without any threats to our lands and fresh waters. What awaits us next year will probably be a quiet season, since quiet seasons generally follow busy ones. But only time will tell. Happy holidays to all.
Quoting NRAamy:
PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Hey there, girl. Is it the "night" time?
:)

You know the night time
Is the right time
To be
With the one you love.......
Quoting NRAamy:
:)

You know the night time
Is the right time
To be
With the one you love.......


Alas, she is in bed. I'll have to find solace with the friendly folk, here. Grill wishes all a fine evening.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The 2010 hurricane season will be officially over in 12 days. But do not let your guard down yet. With luck we will make it through these final days without any threats to our lands and fresh waters. What awaits us next year will probably be a quiet season, since quiet seasons generally follow busy ones. But only time will tell. Happy holidays to all.


I think the margin of error has went up quite heavily the past several years with respect to predictions. What was, doesn't seem to be what is anymore. Generally speaking, we'll see what 2011 has to offer. Maybe the calm before the 2012 storm???


Click to enlarge... but then again, why would you do that??
Latest 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX between 31-38F for the ENTIRE Thanksgiving Day..
Our normals are 43/63F..So we may be about 20F BELOW normal..

Oh, Orca, enjoy your snow!!


evening everybody
Quoting NRAamy:
PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No, no, no!! Are you having Alex, Karl and Paula flashbacks :P
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX between 31-38F for the ENTIRE Thanksgiving Day..
Our normals are 43/63F..So we may be about 20F BELOW normal..

Oh, Orca, enjoy your snow!!


thought it was supposed to be dryer and warmer because of la nina
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX between 31-38F for the ENTIRE Thanksgiving Day..
Our normals are 43/63F..So we may be about 20F BELOW normal..

Oh, Orca, enjoy your snow!!




Bah Humbug
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
thought it was supposed to be dryer and warmer because of la nina

The overall winter may be drier and warmer than normal for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX region.

However, this will mean a transition day like FR when we'll be 39/66F, then several warm days, like we're expecting SA-TU with temps from 61/73F, another transition day on WE 49/66F, then the bottom drops out on TH/FR with temps from 31/38F TH, then 29F/53F FR and the cycle begins again!!
Orca's forecast...Vancouver, BC..Ha, ha, ha :OP

Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind NE 13 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.31 in). Windchill: 32 F .

Friday
Chance of Snow. Partly Cloudy. High: 42 F . Wind NNE 15 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.02 in). Windchill: 22 F .

Friday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind NE 15 mph . 30% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.18 in). Windchill: 15 F .

Saturday
Partly Cloudy. High: 37 F . Wind North 17 mph . Windchill: 26 F .

Saturday Night
Chance of Snow. Scattered Clouds. Low: 28 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: 15 F .

Sunday
Clear. High: 33 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 22 F .

Sunday Night
Clear. Low: 22 F . Wind NNE 8 mph . Windchill: 8 F .

Monday
Clear. High: 30 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Monday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 17 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 4 F .

Tuesday
Scattered Clouds. High: 25 F . Wind NE 8 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Tuesday Night
Chance of Snow. Scattered Clouds. Low: 23 F . Wind NE 8 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.01 in). Windchill: 12 F .
Quoting Bordonaro:

The overall winter may be drier and warmer than normal for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX region.

However, this will mean a transition day like FR when we'll be 39/66F, then several warm days, like we're expecting SA-TU with temps from 61/73F, another transition day on WE 49/66F, then the bottom drops out on TH/FR with temps from 31/38F TH, then 29F/53F FR and the cycle begins again!!
freeze warning for Austin tonite. Near freezing for us in Houston next Fri the 27th
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
freeze warning for Austin tonite. Near freezing for us in Houston next Fri the 27th

I saw that, we still have not had our first official freeze in the DFW Metroplex..That will change this coming week :O)
Hey guys; don't get a chance to post that often, but do keep up with the blog.
Will be interesting to see just how far south the cold front after/during Thanksgiving will get. Here in SW Louisiana, rain predicted, of course.. LOL, then after, our locals don't seem to know.
Good to get through another season without one that costs me money.. LOL Rita and Ike were expensive.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I saw that, we still have not had our first official freeze in the DFW Metroplex..That will change this coming week :O)
'

writing my first article for the Evansville Examiner (:
Quoting tornadodude:
'

writing my first article for the Evansville Examiner (:

I am so glad for you :O)..
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am so glad for you :O)..


Thanks!

Quoting Seawall:
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.


I will once it is completed, and I'll post the link on my blog as well. I will regularly post a link to my articles there so they can be found easily
Quoting Seawall:
Tornadodude, please post the link when your article is online. I'd love to read it.

Tornado Dude will be publishing for the Evansville, IN Weather Examiner. His URL will be: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-evansville

I also write for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner and my URL is: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-fort-worth
Friday, 6 AM CST 00Z 11-19-10 model run
Quoting Bordonaro:


Cold Black Friday Morning
Quoting Drakoen:


Cold Black Friday Morning

At least it won't snow in Ft Worth on Thanksgiving..I better not say that too loud or our fickle "La Nina" may change her mind, again!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Tornado Dude will be publishing for the Evansville, IN Weather Examiner. His URL will be: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-evansville

I also write for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner and my URL is: http://www.examiner.com/weather-and-climate-in-fort-worth


thanks Bob! (:
Quoting Bordonaro:

At least it won't snow in Ft Worth on Thanksgiving..I better not say that too loud or our fickle "La Nina" may change her mind, again!


With this La Nina, what you saw last year will be very unlikely to happen again this year.
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks Bob! (:

You are welcome. I know you will do a GREAT job..
Quoting Drakoen:


With this La Nina, what you saw last year will be very unlikely to happen again this year.

Thank you Jesus..We will have wild temperature swings though :O)
Science Daily has an article about parts of the North (Europe and Asia) having colder winters due to global warming.

I didn't read past the front page. I don't know details such as how they take into account the vanishing arctic sea ice (3 years, my estimation, in case someone, ahem, is keeping records of predictions). I also don't know the political bias of Science Daily (but they are merely referencing anyway).

Still, with Turkey day coming and winter settling in everywhere I thought it might be of interest.
Sorry, by "how they take into account the vanishing arctic sea ice", I meant the rest of the arctic ice. I understood that they only modeled the disappearance of the Barents-Kara Sea ice, nor did they attempt to calculate (model?, guess?)overall effects on temperatures in the other Northern regions. They modeled the relatively local conditions after observing that a loss of ice corresponded to a severe winter in 2006.
Dear Dr. Masters,
I'm not sure that mortality figures are the best way to compare changes in hurricane activity. There could be many reasons why storms are deadly apart from intensity.
Haiti is vulnerable to heavy rainfall because of deforestation, which leads to faster runoff and more flooding from less precipitation; it is also poorer and more densely populated than 50 years ago – more people are vulnerable because they take greater risks to survive and have fewer options about where to live and/or shelter in a storm.
There are also more people in the world – is a larger percentage of the affected population dying? How good, how accurate and consistent is the data over the "500+ years people have been encountering hurricanes in the Atlantic and recording these encounters"? Even in the past 70 years?
Mortality has more to do with preparedness and response. It doesn't always follow wealth – compare mortality from Hurricane Andrew in the Bahamas and the US: 3 direct and 1 indirect deaths in the Bahamas (one hit by flying debris and another drowned because too intoxicated to climb out of the storm surge into the attic of the house where others survived (OK, I ran a hotel on Harbour Island in 1995 and the causes I report are anecdotal) another person died of a heart attack during the storm). In the US, 26 direct, 39 indirect deaths, and a response that led to restructuring FEMA and conspiracy theories of the body count.
All this to say that "more deadly" may be a good inquiry, but more data is needed!
W Schlei
Int'l School Ho Chi Minh City
P.S. This IB Geography and Theory of Knowledge teacher thanks you for providing the material for a good lesson in both courses...and on Teacher's Day, too!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I think the margin of error has went up quite heavily the past several years with respect to predictions. What was, doesn't seem to be what is anymore. Generally speaking, we'll see what 2011 has to offer. Maybe the calm before the 2012 storm???


All early indications are saying 2011 will be pretty active like 2010 was.

And if we go by the pattern we've been having since 2005 (Neutral, El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino, La Nina) We should either get a neutral or a La Nina in 2011 and a El Nino in 2012.
Good morning, everyone. A chilly 46 degrees here, but have a lovely fire burning in the fireplace. I hate to leave for school, but the kiddies will be waiting for me. But half day today due to high school football team going to regionals. And off all next week for Thanksgiving. Hoping the weather will be chilly enough for a fire most days.
768. IKE
11 days...
18 hours...
12 minutes...and it's over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WEST
OF THE BAY ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

..............................................

Quoting IKE:
11 days...
18 hours...
12 minutes...and it's over...

That is, unless we see a single December storm like we did in 2005 and 2007, or two December storms like we did in 2003. That's four in seven years, or roughly 57%. (And, of course, November isn't over yet.) You never know...

Either way, hurricane season 2011 starts in just 193 days, 12 hours, and 7 minutes...
nhc only been doing circles for a couple yrs or so but in diameter of the circle in the nw carib is one of the smallest so far
771. IKE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
344 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 23 2010 - 12Z FRI NOV 26 2010


A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL START OFF
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE WILL HELP STEER TWO PAC/POLAR SHORT WAVE
FEATURES OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE A QUICK ARCTIC
INTRUSION INVADES THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE STARTING OFF MON IS EJECTING OUT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS BUT QUICKLY LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO BY TUES MORNING. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS ARRIVING INTO CA MON MORNING... MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GRT LAKES TUES INTO WED. ALSO LATE MON INTO TUES... A SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE... SLIDING INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY ON WED AND
INTO THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON THURS.
THIS ALSO MEANS THEN
THE IMPRESSIVE SERN/MID-ATL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN.
FOLLOWING THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS AND A SOLID RIDGE BUILDING
BY THURS/FRI. HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET FOR DAYS
3 AND 4... A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN ON DAYS 5
AND 6 AND JUST THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF ON DAY 7.


MUSHER


Goodmorning all, The 7 Day forecast shows the temperatures starting to drop on the N Gulf Coast-- Thanksgiving thru the holiday weekend. A hunting I will go! I promise I wont shoot Bambi!
773. IKE
Ah...turkey and dressing and cold weather. Time to light my fire:)
Venison-- Hmm Hmm Good!
Good morning. The most interesting area to me is that blob of convection in between 30W and 40W, south of 10N.
GOM IR Loop

I just read something that really ticked me off. Why did the members of congress wealth go up 16% from 2008-2009, when my 95 year old grandmother wont get any increase in her social security for the second year in a row. Over half the members of congress are millionares. They should at least refuse any pay raises, or if they really give a damn about people, they would refuse pay until we get out of this mess we are in. Sorry about the rant. Nobody else here to vent on!
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning all, The 7 Day forecast shows the temperatures starting to drop on the N Gulf Coast-- Thanksgiving thru the holiday weekend. A hunting I will go! I promise I wont shoot Bambi!


No wabbits either!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


All early indications are saying 2011 will be pretty active like 2010 was.

And if we go by the pattern we've been having since 2005 (Neutral, El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, El Nino, La Nina) We should either get a neutral or a La Nina in 2011 and a El Nino in 2012.
sweet then ive seen the pattern too. I've found since 04 the pattern has been
Active 04, Active 05, Quiet 06, Active 07, Active 08, Quiet 09, Active 10, Active 11?, Quiet 12...
look interesting tropical wave in middle atlantic but getting hammer by fast wind shear but this will enter the carribean with a possible tropical formationn in 2 weeks, weird, gfs 6 anyone? la ni~a is still strong so no surprise with a final invest a least in eastern carribean...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html
Link i have a strange feeling about the strong tropical wave in middle atlantic
That blob in the central Atlantic may spin up & cause some problems for the southern islands, Trinidad & Tobago in about a week.
yeah like tomas track the only difference is that at the eastern carribean if intensify it may head north by a polar pesturbatioon and head toward pr and us virgin island and n lesser antilles ur stay weak and head straight west in too thw estern carribean, something to keep a eye on
Quoting Skyepony:
That blob in the central Atlantic may spin up & cause some problems for the southern islands, Trinidad & Tobago in about a weyeah like tomas track the only difference is that at the eastern carribean if intensify it may head north by a polar pesturbatioon and head toward pr and us virgin island and n lesser antilles ur stay weak and head straight west in too thw estern carribean, something to keep a eye on
ek.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
sweet then ive seen the pattern too. I've found since 04 the pattern has been
Active 04, Active 05, Quiet 06, Active 07, Active 08, Quiet 09, Active 10, Active 11?, Quiet 12...

And those quiet seasons tie in very well with El Nino years.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


No wabbits either!
LOL, Never Bugs.

We are located at 16.1N 86.9W

Winds are from the East blowing at close to 30kts.

I hope the cold front does not cause the system to stall.
New Blog