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Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:07 PM GMT on December 20, 2011

The deadliest storm of 2011 is Tropical Storm Washi, which is now being blamed for 957 deaths in the Philippines. Washi's heavy rains triggered devastating flash flooding on the island of Mindanao last Friday. However, the deadliest weather disaster of 2011 is a quiet one that has gotten few headlines--the East African drought in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia, the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. However, conditions are improving. Food aid has lifted three of six provinces in Somalia out of famine. The "short rains" of the October - November rainy season were plentiful this year--too much so, since heavy rains killed 15 people in Kenya and left 80,000 homeless in early December. The flooding was worsened by the preceding drought, which killed much of the vegetation that ordinarily would have stabilized the soil and absorbed rainwater before it could run off and create destructive floods. The rains have allowed a good harvest to be planted this fall, and with continued food aid, the Somalia famine should ease by spring 2012. ReliefWeb reports that in the three Somalian provinces still experiencing famine, nearly 250,000 people face imminent starvation, though.


Figure 1. The impacts of the Horn of Africa drought on cattle in Somalia in 2006. Image credit: USGS

Meteorology of the East Africa drought
East Africa has two rainy seasons--a main "long rains" of March - June, and the "short rains" of October - November. The "short rains" failed in 2010, due to a sea surface temperature pattern featuring cooler than average waters in the western Indian Ocean, and warmer than average waters in the Eastern Indian Ocean (a negative "Indian Ocean Dipole.") When the main "long rains" in spring 2011 also failed, it brought one of the worst droughts in recorded history. The 2010 - 2011 drought was rated along with the droughts of 1983 - 1984 and 1999 - 2000 as one of the three most significant droughts of the past 60 years. It was the driest 12-month period on record at some locations in East Africa.


Figure 2. The "long rains" of March - May 2011 failed over much of East Africa, leading to drought and famine (left image.) However, the "short rains" of October - December have been up to five times higher than normal, easing the East Africa drought. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The uncertain future of drought in East Africa
The climate of East Africa during the main March - June rainy season has steadily dried over the past 30 years. Since 2004, six of the past eight years have seen unusually deficient spring "long rains." This drying of the East African climate has come as the waters of the Indian Ocean have warmed significantly. A 2011 study by A. Park Williams and Chris Funk of the University of California, Santa Barbara, blames the drought in East Africa on the heating up of the Indian Ocean, which has altered the atmospheric circulation over East Africa to bring more sinking air and less moisture. The atmospheric circulation over East Africa is part of Earth's largest atmospheric circulation feature--the Walker circulation. The Walker circulation features rising air over the warmest waters of the Pacific Ocean, and compensating sinking air over over eastern tropical Africa and the eastern tropical Pacific. The Walker circulation also helps drive the El Niño/La Niña phenomena in the Eastern Pacific. Williams and Funk show that the increase in Indian Ocean temperatures in recent decades has made the Walker circulation extend farther west, resulting in more sinking air over East Africa and thus less rain. Since the increase in Indian Ocean temperature driving this change in the atmospheric circulation shows strong linkages with human-caused global warming, they conclude: "anthropogenic [human-caused] warming appears to have already significantly altered the Earth's largest circulation feature and impacted its most food insecure inhabitants." They predict that East Africa will continue to dry as global warming increases the ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, impacting the Walker circulation. However, eighteen of the 21 models used in the 2007 IPCC report on climate change predict more rainfall over East Africa by the end of this century. These models predict that the Walker circulation will weaken, shifting towards a more "El Niño-like" state, resulting in less sinking air (and thus more rain) over East Africa. Since there is as yet no evidence of this happening, and East African climate has gotten drier in recent years, this may be a case where the large majority of the climate models are wrong. While the models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report do a reasonable job simulating the the current climate over most of the world, they do a poor job of simulating Africa's current climate. The models put too much precipitation in southern Africa, and displace the band of heavy thunderstorms called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) too far south. The 2007 IPCC report concludes, "the absence of realistic variability in the Sahel in most 20th-century simulations casts some doubt on the reliability of models". In other words, since these models do a poor job simulating the current climate of the Sahel region of Africa, we shouldn't trust their predictions for the future climate of Africa.


Figure 3. Farmers in the Horn of Africa tend their emerging crops. Image credit: USGS.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

References
Behera, Swadhin K., Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, Pascale Delecluse, Silvio Gualdi, Antonio Navarra, Toshio Yamagata, 2005: Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study. J. Climate, 18, 4514-4530. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Sheffield, J., K. M. Andreadis, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009, "Global and continental drought in the second half of the 20th century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events", J. Climate 22, pp 1962-1981.

Williams, A.P., and C. Funk, 2011, A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Clim Dyn (2011) 37:2417-2435 DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

Wunderground releases its free iPhone and Android apps
Wunderground is proud to announce that our free Weather Underground iPhone app is now live in the iTunes store. The free Android version was released on Android Market last night. I've been having a lot of fun with the new apps; they're a great way to get weather info on the go.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Drought Climate Change East Africa Drought Relief

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So 18 of 21 climate models say there will be more rain by the end of the century...but they may all be wrong. hmmm...ya never hear that during hurricane season. You always hear that the models know what they're doing. "Interesting" logic being used to here to make the anthropogenic global warming case.
"...anthropogenic [human-caused] warming appears to have already significantly altered the Earth's largest circulation feature and impacted its most food insecure inhabitants."

Ulp...
Quoting shmdaddy:
So 18 of 21 climate models say there will be more rain by the end of the century...but they may all be wrong. hmmm...ya never hear that during hurricane season. You always hear that the models know what they're doing. "Interesting" logic being used to here to make the anthropogenic global warming case.


I do believe we are experiencing GW but I would not use any computer models because hell they can't even get a forecast nailed down 5 days in advance.
Quoting shmdaddy:
So 18 of 21 climate models say there will be more rain by the end of the century...but they may all be wrong. hmmm...ya never hear that during hurricane season. You always hear that the models know what they're doing. "Interesting" logic being used to here to make the anthropogenic global warming case.

Climate models have, for the most part, mostly underestimated the impacts of AGW. At any rate, the current drought in the Horn of Africa is the worst in at least 60 years; it's no less severe and startling just because most climate models got it wrong.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Climate models have, for the most part, mostly underestimated the impacts of AGW. At any rate, the current drought in the Horn of Africa is the worst in at least 60 years; it's no less severe and startling just because most climate models got it wrong.


Great post!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I do believe we are experiencing GW but I would not use any computer models because hell they can't even get a forecast nailed down 5 days in advance.

Well, climate prediction models and weather forecast models are two different things. Climate models are akin to predicting the next high tide; weather models try to predict the exact height, length, and arrival time of the next seven waves.
IMO the worst natural disaster in the US was the Spring Tornadoes which killed nearly 600 people.
I am a firm opponent of AGW. I don't think humans are as impactful as they may think in the grand scheme of the life cycles in the Earth. Global Warming proponents give themselves too much credit for being able to affect the natural cycles of the Earth. Is the Earth warming? In parts yes...in other parts, no. But it has before and it will again and nothing we do will have a profound effect on that cycle.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, climate prediction models and weather forecast models are two different things. Climate models are akin to predicting the next high tide; weather models try to predict the exact height, length, and arrival time of the next seven waves.


Yeah I should have rephrased. I tried to draw a comparison meaning that models are useless far out in time.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Climate models have, for the most part, mostly underestimated the impacts of AGW. At any rate, the current drought in the Horn of Africa is the worst in at least 60 years; it's no less severe and startling just because most climate models got it wrong.


Worst in 60 years, so there were worse before the evil humans caused this one?

A dry water pan close to Dilmanyale, Kenya. Baroness Amos, head of UN humanitarian affairs, has appealed for donors to 'dig deep' to address the crisis. She said the scale of the problem was 'much greater than we had anticipated last year'
Link

This is the second new weather app I will be getting after the Wunderground one. It does precise timeframes of weather for an hour, and gives the amount/time of rain or snow that will fall.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, climate prediction models and weather forecast models are two different things. Climate models are akin to predicting the next high tide; weather models try to predict the exact height, length, and arrival time of the next seven waves.


Well said, Sun of Our Communist Future!!!!!
Quoting shmdaddy:
I am a firm opponent of AGW. I don't think humans are as impactful as they may think in the grand scheme of the life cycles in the Earth. Global Warming proponents give themselves too much credit for being able to affect the natural cycles of the Earth. Is the Earth warming? In parts yes...in other parts, no. But it has before and it will again and nothing we do will have a profound effect on that cycle.

You're certainly welcome to believe what you want to believe; that's one of the great things about living in a free society. As for myself, I look at the 40 trillion liters of fossil fuel CO2 we humans are belching into the environment each day, and think that, big though this planet may seem, that's an awful lot of anything to be carelessly dumping in a confined space.

The image below was taken 3.7 billion miles away from earth a number of years ago. Our planet is the slightly brighter pixel circled in blue. Now think: 40 trillion liters a day of CO2 dumped right onto that pixel. Still don't see how we could have an impact?

Click for much larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting presslord:


Well said, Sun of Our Communist Future!!!!!

You know it, Dear Leader, Who Is A Perfect Incarnation Of The Appearance That A Leader Should Have. (Coincidentally, Newt Gingrich's new campaign slogan.)


I appreciate your point of view (and that would be the "view" that's suits your argument) but look at the same Earth from the ACTUAL perspective andrealize how massive it is. 24,000 miles around...8,000 miles straight though the middle. Do you realize the incredible size that is? Aside from the fact that teh Earth has its own balancing act that we still know very little about.
Bu the way....both pictures, the one from 3.7 billion miles away and the one from the space station are both pretty awesome pictures, whether you agree or disagree with AGW. There!...we just found some common ground!


Yemen and 3 others Growing Fear at Plight of Stranded Ethiopian Migrants in Yemen as Funds to Assist Them Run Out


Report— International Organization for Migration
Yemen - There is growing concern and fear at IOM over the fate of many thousands of Ethiopian migrants stranded for several months in northern Yemen in desperate conditions as funds run out to assist the most vulnerable among them.

Since November 2010, IOM has been providing critical humanitarian assistance including shelter, health care and return and reintegration assistance to thousands of migrants stranded in Yemen who want to return home, with the Organization so far having provided 6,169 Ethiopian migrants with return and reintegration assistance.

IOM operations to assist more migrants would have run out but for some emergency stop-gap funding from Saudia Arabia and Japan which will allow the Organization to help a group to return home to Ethiopia soon.

IOM is urgently appealing to donors to fund an appeal of USD 2.6 million. The funds would allow it to assist 6,000 Ethiopian migrants, many of them unaccompanied minors and women in a highly vulnerable situation from a horrific ordeal that shows no sign of ending without humanitarian intervention.

Nearly 18,300 Ethiopian migrants have been registered in the northern town of Haradh on the border with Saudia Arabia in the past 12 months, many of them migrants returned from Saudia Arabia due to their irregular status.

In addition, 2011 has seen a dramatic increase in the number of Ethiopians arriving in Yemen from the Horn of Africa – up from 34,422 in 2010 to more than 65,000 so far this year. It is likely that about 100,000 Ethiopians and Somalis will have crossed the sea into Yemen by the end of 2011, with many having been driven by the drought and famine that struck the Horn of Africa this year.

In Haradh, the vast majority of the migrants are living in open, unprotected spaces in the urban centre without access to food, water, sanitation, shelter or means to earn money. The long period of instability in Yemen which has had a great impact on the population at large, has further marginalized destitute migrants, made further vulnerable by allegations that they are being recruited by opposing factions to fight.

An IOM departure centre for migrants in Haradh with a maximum capacity of 150 is now hosting 350 migrants, the majority of them unaccompanied minors and medical cases.

Having left their poverty-stricken lives in Ethiopia in search of employment in the Gulf and beyond, Ethiopian migrants embark on a life-threatening journey across the Horn of Africa, through the Gulf of Aden and through conflict-ridden Yemen by using smuggling networks.

Those lucky enough to survive this long, dangerous journey either find themselves stranded at the Saudi border unable to progress further or returned from the Gulf country after having been detained there as irregular migrants and are invariably assaulted by smugglers and traffickers. Women and unaccompanied minors are the most vulnerable as they are often kidnapped, exploited and assaulted by smugglers.

Their exhausting ordeal and that of all the migrants in general means many migrants are suffering from illnesses including diarrheal diseases, malaria, respiratory tract infections, snake bites from sleeping in the open, or are suffering from broken limbs, gunshot wounds and other signs of mistreatment from human traffickers and smugglers. A clinic run by IOM in conjunction with the Yemeni Red Crescent is currently overflowing with severe medical cases with IOM and partners including the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) carrying out about 2,300 medical consultations each month.

At least 30 migrants in Haradh have known to have died in the past month, though that figure is likely to be higher as there is no clear data available on the deaths that occur at the border and other areas.

"The situation is dire to the extreme. We need to be able to provide assistance on a much larger scale and to get those migrants who want to return to Ethiopia back to the safety of their homes and families now. We cannot stress enough the urgency of this appeal to donors," says Nicoletta Giordano, IOM Chief of Mission in Yemen.

IOM staff in Yemen say at least 1,000 migrants have been ready to travel immediately for some time and at least another 3,000 keep gathering in front of the IOM centre in Haradh for help, but that the lack of funds has left the Organization hamstrung in the face of such suffering.

Operations to help most of the 1,000 travel-ready migrants return to Ethiopia are due to resume in the coming days. Among the 275 migrants about to leave Haradh are 19 unaccompanied minors as well as eight migrants being given IOM medical escort following the physical torture they endured at the hands of human smugglers.

A further 550 migrants will Haradh in the next couple of weeks after which evacuation funds run out.

It will mean that without a speedy response to IOM's appeal of USD 2.6 million, many thousands of migrants will be left at a great and unacceptable danger.

For further information, please contact:

Brian Wittbold IOM Yemen Tel: + 967 736708812 E-mail: bwittbold@iom.int
Quoting shmdaddy:
So 18 of 21 climate models say there will be more rain by the end of the century...but they may all be wrong. hmmm...ya never hear that during hurricane season. You always hear that the models know what they're doing. "Interesting" logic being used to here to make the anthropogenic global warming case.


While the models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report do a reasonable job simulating the the current climate over most of the world, they do a poor job of simulating Africa's current climate. The models put too much precipitation in southern Africa, and displace the band of heavy thunderstorms called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) too far south. The 2007 IPCC report concludes, "the absence of realistic variability in the Sahel in most 20th-century simulations casts some doubt on the reliability of models". In other words, since these models do a poor job simulating the current climate of the Sahel region of Africa, we shouldn't trust their predictions for the future climate of Africa.

Jeff Masters
post 21: Human migration will be an important issue in the coming years...
..[Everyone in full chorus line.]



Feed the world - [repeated to end]
Quoting shmdaddy:


I appreciate your point of view (and that would be the "view" that's suits your argument) but look at the same Earth from the ACTUAL perspective andrealize how massive it is. 24,000 miles around...8,000 miles straight though the middle. Do you realize the incredible size that is? Aside from the fact that teh Earth has its own balancing act that we still know very little about.


Beautiful picture, shmdaddy. The dimensions of Earth you give are impressive. A massive rock, indeed. One should also note just how miniscule the amount of that mass is in its atmosphere. I believe that it was the late Dr. Carl Sagan that said if Earth was the size of a basketball, then the atmosphere would be no thicker than a thin film of oil on its surface. ... Helps to bring things more into perspective, does it not?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah I should have rephrased. I tried to draw a comparison meaning that models are useless far out in time.


Not really. It all depends on what you're trying to model and how accurate you want to be. Error analysis is an integral part of all models.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Beautiful picture, shmdaddy. The dimensions of Earth you give are impressive. A massive rock, indeed. One should also note just how miniscule the amount of that mass is in its atmosphere. I believe that it was the late Dr. Carl Sagan that said if Earth was the size of a basketball, then the atmosphere would be no thicker than a thin film of oil on its surface. ... Helps to bring things more into perspective, does it not?


The Earth is large. The biosphere is a tiny little envelope surrounding our planet. Just a layer 6 miles thick on average at the surface pretty much contains our entire atmosphere.

Over the past century, our activities have caused such issues as acid rain and ozone layer depletion. Only a fool would believe that we can't have global scale impacts from our activities. We've already done so on several fronts, not even including global warming.
I'm beginning to think Winter might never come to FL this year.

Lots of deep tropical moisture flowing north from the Caribbean. Notice the convection building in the C Gulf as a result.



Now. thi is stupid.

I go over to the railroad with a penny..ima lay the penny on track for train to smush then i git it back. BUT....the penny stuck to the wheel!! UGH! I lost 1 whole cent
Quoting shmdaddy:


I appreciate your point of view (and that would be the "view" that's suits your argument) but look at the same Earth from the ACTUAL perspective andrealize how massive it is. 24,000 miles around...8,000 miles straight though the middle. Do you realize the incredible size that is? Aside from the fact that teh Earth has its own balancing act that we still know very little about.
The Earth is more like 25,000 miles in circumference(24,901.55 miles to be specific) and 3 quarters of the atmosphere,s mass exists only 6.8 miles above the Earth,s surface. From Earth's surface to the top of the stratosphere (50km) is just under 1% of Earth's radius. That may seem like a lot, but it is comparable to the skin on an onion. There are good reasons why we should take action to stop ejecting pollution into our skies. The globe is warming, sooner or later, scientists will be able to determine what effect we as humans have had on the atmosphere in the past 150 years or so. Global warming being a plausible co-factor of ever increasing ocean temps, the real possibility of larger, stronger and deadlier tropical cyclones could be the result. jmo
Off subject but an email I've received from Insider Wealth...


Why the European Debt Crisis is
Becoming Increasingly Dangerous to You



While the U.S. stock market remains in %u201Cneutral%u201D for the remainder of 2011, the developments taking place in Europe in the days and weeks ahead could have a dramatic impact you%u2019re your financial well-being.
The European debt bailout that has helped prop up the stock market over the last few days could collapse at any time.
The risk of default on boatloads of European debt now places companies like JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in great danger. Simply put...there%u2019s an enormous potential disaster looming %u2013 but very few investors here in the U.S. truly understand it.
Rita, was just watching some TV news about that....

I'm thinking a lot of us are not realizing the interconnectedness of global activity, either on the climatic or financial level...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Rita, was just watching some TV news about that....

I'm thinking a lot of us are not realizing the interconnectedness of global activity, either on the climatic or financial level...



Gonna get crazy next year, I actually want Chase and Goldman Sachs to crash though, they're crooks. Enjoy this Christmas, might be the last good one
U betcha... and here and in the US political campaigning is going to be absolute madness....

This not counting the regular craziness... :o)
Quoting BahaHurican:
U betcha... and here and in the US political campaigning is going to be absolute madness....

This not counting the regular craziness... :o)


Any violet weather events will play critical roles in the coming year as well
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm beginning to think Winter might never come to FL this year.



Probably will only see like maybe 1 day below freezing this year, ''maybe''.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Link
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
5:00 AM EST December 21 2011
===================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low 02U (1000 hPa) located at 14.1S 155.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3S 156.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4S 156.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.9S 157.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favorable environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards, though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 1:00 AM UTC..
Philippine flood newsLink
LOL

U.S. stocks surged Tuesday as concerns about the European debt crisis eased and investors welcomed signs of strength in the U.S. housing market.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 331 points, or 2.8%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) jumped 36 points, or 3%. The Nasdaq (COMP) gained 80 points, or 3.2%.

452PrintComment
Investors focused on positive headlines out of Europe, including an upbeat reading on German consumer confidence and a surprisingly strong auction of Spanish debt.

Traders were also looking ahead to the results of a key lending program by the European Central Bank on Wednesday. The ECB announced a series of "non-standard" measures earlier this month designed to boost liquidity for European banks struggling to secure funding in the wholesale market.

"The market is coming to the realization that this is an important step to prevent a credit crisis and bring down yields" on government bonds, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.



It's called the holidays Bafoons, that's why there aren't any concerns going on till the new year and everybody comes back to work, LOL.


Tropical Low 02U image from Naval Research Laboratory website
Quoting RitaEvac:


Any
violet weather events will play critical roles in the coming year as well


I have been looking forward to more colorful weather events. These stormy gray weather events have become somewhat boring to see. Will only the violet weather events play a critical role or will other colors share some of the same critical properties?


LOL, I merely jest, RitaEvac. I could not pass on this so easily, it would seem. ... Uh, no fair pointing out my typos later. OK?
I know I'm not an expert, and I do not pretend to be, but I have released MY Tropical Cyclone Report concerning Tropical Storm Cindy.

Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Cindy
(AL032011)
20-22 July 2011

Tropical Storm Cindy was a short-lived but intense tropical storm that developed in the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda, and moved northeastward away from any landmasses.

a. Synoptic History

The origins of Cindy appear to be from the remnants of a Cold Front that moved off the southeastern coastline of the United States on 14 July; this same front is responsible for the tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Bret just a few days prior. During the afternoon hours of 19 July, an area of showers and thunderstorms became noticeable about 100 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Over the course of the next few hours, this area of convective activity became markedly consolidated, in which time it was noted in a Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook produced by the National Hurricane Center at 0000 UTC 19 July. Despite relatively cool sea surface temperatures and unfavorable wind shear, the low continued to consolidate, although frontal characteristics were apparent in conventional satellite image. During the early morning hours of 20 July, the low had attained a well-defined center of circulation with deep convection atop. Thus, it is estimated that the third tropical depression of the 2011 season formed at 0600 UTC on 20 July, about 440 miles east of Bermuda.

Moving towards the east-northeast at approximately 20 mph, the tropical depression quickly strengthened into a tropical storm six hours later, receiving the name Cindy. Further intensification occurred over the next 24 hours, and it is estimated that Tropical Storm Cindy attained its peak intensity with winds of 60 knots around 2100 UTC 21 July. At this time, the presence of a weak and ragged eyewall was noted in Microwave imagery, and visible satellite imagery revealed the appearance of a clear spot that could have been an eye feature. This feature persisted over the next 6-12 hours before Cindy began to enter sub-26 %uFFFDC sea surface temperatures, at which time the cyclone began to weaken. Late on 22 July, an ASCAT pass revealed a few tropical storm-force winds but the absence of a closed circulation in association with Cindy, and thus it is thought that the system transitioned into an Extratropical cyclone around 0200 UTC 22 July.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Cindy include subjective satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Dvorak estimates from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Aqua, and the European Space Agency%u2019s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), among others, were also useful in tracking Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy's peak intensity of 60 knots was based on CIMSS Dvorak estimates and a blend of satellite imagery and an ASCAT pass taken on 21 July.

c. Casualties and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Cindy.

d. Forecast Verification

The tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Cindy was not anticipated. An area of low pressure, although not marked in the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook at the time, was first observed northeast of Bermuda at 1800 UTC on 19 July. Over the course of the next 6%u201312 hours, the low pressure area became much better defined, and by 0600 UTC on 20 July, it is estimated that the low had gained enough organization to be declared as a tropical depression.

My initial peak intensity of 65 knots was based off moderate warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear. At the time of this forecast, Cindy displayed a thin but intense ring of convection surrounding a ragged eye feature in the center. However, cooling sea surface temperatures limited Cindy's intensification, and fell just short of my prediction.

No coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings were issued for Cindy.

e. Track map


Figure 1. Track map of Tropical Storm Cindy, 20-22 July 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
LOL

U.S. stocks surged Tuesday as concerns about the European debt crisis eased and investors welcomed signs of strength in the U.S. housing market.

LOL.


The real market scenarios will be dicted by how the EU crisis is managed... and they don't look good....


ECB says risks to financial stability increased in H2

Contagion spreading: The European Central Bank warned on Monday risks to financial stability in the euro zone have increased considerably in the second half of this year, pointing most prominently to concern about growing contagion effects from the debt crisis, and bank funding strains. The 17-country blocs central bank said that, in the worst case, there could be a return to a global recession, which in turn would hit the already-weak banks. It said the risk of two large banks defaulting within the next year had risen to the highest level in the measures four-year history. In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the ECB said the sovereign risk crisis and its interplay with the banking sector worsened in an environment of weakening macroeconomic growth prospects. Ultimately, the transmission of tensions among sovereigns, across banks and between the two intensified to take on systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago, the report said. The ECB singled out four main risks: the potential for a further intensification of contagion, market funding strains, an increase in credit risks for banks in combination with the economic slowdown, and an abrupt unwinding of global imbalances. The ECB reiterated its criticism of politicians slow response to the crisis, saying it had made things worse. A bumpy ratification process appears to have contributed to additional market uncertainties, the ECB said in its report. Reuters

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know I'm not an expert, and I do not pretend to be, but I have released MY Tropical Cyclone Report concerning Tropical Storm Cindy.

Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Cindy
(AL032011)
20–22 July 2011

Tropical Storm Cindy was a short-lived but intense tropical storm that developed in the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda, and moved northeastward away from any landmasses.

a. Synoptic History

The origins of Cindy appear to be from the remnants of a Cold Front that moved off the southeastern coastline of the United States on 14 July; this same front is likely responsible for the tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Bret just a few days prior. During the afternoon hours of 19 July, an area of showers and thunderstorms became noticeable about 100 miles east-northeast. Over the course of the next few hours, this area of convective activity became markedly consolidated, in which time it was noted in a Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook produced by the National Hurricane Center at 0000 UTC 19 July. Despite relatively cool sea surface temperatures and unfavorable wind shear, the low continued to consolidate, although frontal characteristics were apparent in conventional satellite image. During the early morning hours of 20 July, the low had attained a well-defined center of circulation with deep convection atop. Thus, it is estimated that the third tropical depression of the 2011 season formed at 0600 UTC on 20 July, about 440 miles east of Bermuda.

Moving towards the east-northeast at approximately 20 mph, the tropical depression quickly strengthened into a tropical storm six hours later, receiving the name Cindy. Further intensification occurred over the next 24 hours, and it is estimated that Tropical Storm Cindy attained its peak intensity with winds of 60 knots around 2100 UTC 21 July. At this time, the presence of a weak and ragged eyewall was noted in Microwave imagery, and visible satellite imagery revealed the appearance of a clear spot that could have been an eye feature. This feature persisted over the next 6-12 hours before Cindy began to enter sub-26 °C sea surface temperatures, at which time the cyclone began to weaken. Late on 22 July, an ASCAT pass revealed a few tropical storm-force winds but the absence of a closed circulation in association with Cindy, and thus it is thought that the system transitioned into an Extratropical cyclone around 0200 UTC 22 July.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Cindy include subjective satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Dvorak estimates from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Aqua, and the European Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), among others, were also useful in tracking Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy's peak intensity of 60 knots was based on CIMSS Dvorak estimates and a blend of satellite imagery and an ASCAT pass taken on 21 July.

c. Casualties and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Cindy.

d. Forecast Verification

The tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Cindy was not anticipated. An area of low pressure, although not marked in the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook at the time, was first observed northeast of Bermuda at 1800 UTC on 19 July. Over the course of the next 6–12 hours, the low pressure area became much better defined, and by 0600 UTC on 20 July, it is estimated that the low had gained enough organization to be declared as a tropical depression.

My initial peak intensity of 65 knots was based off moderate warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear. At the time of this forecast, Cindy displayed a thin but intense ring of convection surrounding a ragged eye feature in the center. However, cooling sea surface temperatures limited Cindy's intensification, and fell just short of my prediction.

No coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings were issued for Cindy.

e. Track map


Figure 1. Track map of Tropical Storm Cindy, 20-22 July 2011


for such a boring TS, you have persistence writing that that i dont have lol
"In other words, since these models do a poor job simulating the current climate of the Sahel region of Africa, we shouldn't trust their predictions for the future climate of Africa." or anywhere else
Quoting owenowen:
Ever notice the agenda this guy has when it comes to the global warming hysteria propaganda. It's getting really tiring. Look at his posts in the last two months. It's really embarrassing.

Nobody said you had to stick around here. Climate change involves weather or vice versa, so his posts are relevant.
Quoting owenowen:
Ever notice the agenda this guy has when it comes to the global warming hysteria propaganda. It's getting really tiring. Look at his posts in the last two months. It's really embarrassing.
You know what's even more tiring? Listening to people come on a forum that Dr. Masters has so generously provided, and complain that they don't like what he chooses to write about.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody said you had to stick around here. Climate change involves weather or vice versa, so his posts are relevant.
True. Not to mention the fact that it's his own blog--on his own website.
Owenowen - I've been following Dr. Masters since 2005. You have no idea the wealth of knowledge this man has. Because he believes in Global Warming and has evidence to back his arguments gives him the right to have an agenda, if you want to call it that. To call it propaganda and to say that its embarassing only shows your ignorance and inability to listen to others and appreciate their educated opinions. Although I may not agree with Dr. Masters with regard to anthropogenic global warming, I DO respect his knowledge, the time he puts into this blog and the WU and also his conviction about what he knows to be the truth. You don't HAVE to agree to have simple respect for someone but if you're going to comment on here, then do it respectfully.
Quoting owenowen:
Ever notice the agenda this guy has when it comes to the global warming hysteria propaganda. It's getting really tiring. Look at his posts in the last two months. It's really embarrassing.

I think if you come on here as a guest, you have to accept you are in the hosts territory and he has every right to specify the subject of the individual Blog.
There are many facilities for individuals to start their own Blogs.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody said you had to stick around here.


+500
Noticed a few months ago you can't copy the image of the NAM or GFS 4 panel models like we were able to do in the past. Was a good way of showing Arctic outbreaks by showing the 850mb temps and the Jet Stream. Another lost opportunity to educate the world
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know I'm not an expert, and I do not pretend to be, but I have released MY Tropical Cyclone Report concerning Tropical Storm Cindy.

Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Cindy
(AL032011)
20-22 July 2011

Tropical Storm Cindy was a short-lived but intense tropical storm that developed in the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda, and moved northeastward away from any landmasses.

a. Synoptic History

The origins of Cindy appear to be from the remnants of a Cold Front that moved off the southeastern coastline of the United States on 14 July; this same front is responsible for the tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Bret just a few days prior. During the afternoon hours of 19 July, an area of showers and thunderstorms became noticeable about 100 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Over the course of the next few hours, this area of convective activity became markedly consolidated, in which time it was noted in a Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook produced by the National Hurricane Center at 0000 UTC 19 July. Despite relatively cool sea surface temperatures and unfavorable wind shear, the low continued to consolidate, although frontal characteristics were apparent in conventional satellite image. During the early morning hours of 20 July, the low had attained a well-defined center of circulation with deep convection atop. Thus, it is estimated that the third tropical depression of the 2011 season formed at 0600 UTC on 20 July, about 440 miles east of Bermuda.

Moving towards the east-northeast at approximately 20 mph, the tropical depression quickly strengthened into a tropical storm six hours later, receiving the name Cindy. Further intensification occurred over the next 24 hours, and it is estimated that Tropical Storm Cindy attained its peak intensity with winds of 60 knots around 2100 UTC 21 July. At this time, the presence of a weak and ragged eyewall was noted in Microwave imagery, and visible satellite imagery revealed the appearance of a clear spot that could have been an eye feature. This feature persisted over the next 6-12 hours before Cindy began to enter sub-26 %uFFFDC sea surface temperatures, at which time the cyclone began to weaken. Late on 22 July, an ASCAT pass revealed a few tropical storm-force winds but the absence of a closed circulation in association with Cindy, and thus it is thought that the system transitioned into an Extratropical cyclone around 0200 UTC 22 July.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Cindy include subjective satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Dvorak estimates from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Aqua, and the European Space Agency%u2019s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), among others, were also useful in tracking Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy's peak intensity of 60 knots was based on CIMSS Dvorak estimates and a blend of satellite imagery and an ASCAT pass taken on 21 July.

c. Casualties and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Cindy.

d. Forecast Verification

The tropical cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Cindy was not anticipated. An area of low pressure, although not marked in the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook at the time, was first observed northeast of Bermuda at 1800 UTC on 19 July. Over the course of the next 6%u201312 hours, the low pressure area became much better defined, and by 0600 UTC on 20 July, it is estimated that the low had gained enough organization to be declared as a tropical depression.

My initial peak intensity of 65 knots was based off moderate warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear. At the time of this forecast, Cindy displayed a thin but intense ring of convection surrounding a ragged eye feature in the center. However, cooling sea surface temperatures limited Cindy's intensification, and fell just short of my prediction.

No coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings were issued for Cindy.

e. Track map


Figure 1. Track map of Tropical Storm Cindy, 20-22 July 2011


Cindy Lou Who...

Quoting shmdaddy:
I am a firm opponent of AGW. I don't think humans are as impactful as they may think in the grand scheme of the life cycles in the Earth. Global Warming proponents give themselves too much credit for being able to affect the natural cycles of the Earth. Is the Earth warming? In parts yes...in other parts, no. But it has before and it will again and nothing we do will have a profound effect on that cycle.


I'm an opponent of the human-caused, enhanced greenhouse effect as well. As is Dr. Masters. As are most climate scientists.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah I should have rephrased. I tried to draw a comparison meaning that models are useless far out in time.


Not necessarily. Depends on the model. Depends on the input data. Depends on what the model is trying to predict. Models vary in usefulness widely depending on all sorts of things, not limited to those that I just mentioned. A climate model is not trying to predict weather, so comparisons to such are silly.
Quoting shmdaddy:


I appreciate your point of view (and that would be the "view" that's suits your argument) but look at the same Earth from the ACTUAL perspective andrealize how massive it is. 24,000 miles around...8,000 miles straight though the middle. Do you realize the incredible size that is? Aside from the fact that teh Earth has its own balancing act that we still know very little about.


Just goes to show you how much we would have to mess up to cause noticeable changes on that scale. It's not a little mess up, not a little experiment, nor a minor consequence.

Its the earth's own "balancing" act you mention that is both mitigating, and showing the detectable symptoms of, the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'm an opponent of the human-caused, enhanced greenhouse effect as well. As is Dr. Masters. As are most climate scientists.


yup
Here's the deal: It's Jeff's blog. If he wants to post his dead Grandma's cake recipes....it's entirely his business.
I like cake
Looking a little more seasonable early next week for West Palm Beach...

Quoting presslord:
Here's the deal: It's Jeff's blog. If he wants to post his dead Grandma's cake recipes....it's entirely his business.
You might be burying his dear grandma before her time.
Do we know she's passed on?
Either way, I'm sure she has/had a good cake/cookie recipe...don't all grandma's?
Quoting weatherbro:


Cindy Lou Who...



Peoples?
Quoting shmdaddy:
I am a firm opponent of AGW. I don't think humans are as impactful as they may think in the grand scheme of the life cycles in the Earth. Global Warming proponents give themselves too much credit for being able to affect the natural cycles of the Earth. Is the Earth warming? In parts yes...in other parts, no. But it has before and it will again and nothing we do will have a profound effect on that cycle.


Man has no impact or the ability to impact the world......hmmmm

1
This link will get you to the University of Alaska Fairbanks Ocean Acidification Research center.
Link
.....The pH of ocean surface waters has already decreased by about 0.1 units from an average of about 8.21 to 8.10 since the beginning of the industrial revolution. .........

Now this might not seem like much of a change, however, it is a change that is attributable to man. The ocean is getting more acid due to increased CO2 in the air.

2.
This link talks about the dead zone in the gulf of Mexico. A dead zone caused by fertilizer from farming. Man doing something and it affects a very big chuck of the planet.
Link

Both of the above are well documented and I have not found any denying the above with Google searches (Google, take with large grain of salt).

3.
What man has not done so far, but could do (Little Boy and Fat Man aside) ,...............
From wikipedia very large grain of salt, but the idea still holds
Link
List of states with nuclear weapons
From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there are now nearly 8,000 active nuclear warheads and more than 22,000 total nuclear warheads in the world in 2010

Do you really think that man lacks the ability to radically alter the planet?
With over 120 active erupting volcano's on earth, spewing pollutants all over the world, I agree with global warming, but NOT man made, I ask the question, on global warming? are you receiving Federal monies for studies of Global warming, any amount?
Most scientist do answer to the global warming cash cow one way or another.

Here is the link of all the erupting volcano's

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoe s.html
Google is wonderful.............
U.S. Geological Survey
Link

.........
Gas studies at volcanoes worldwide have helped volcanologists tally up a global volcanic CO2 budget in the same way that nations around the globe have cooperated to determine how much CO2 is released by human activity through the burning of fossil fuels. Our studies show that globally, volcanoes on land and under the sea release a total of about 200 million tonnes of CO2 annually.

This seems like a huge amount of CO2, but a visit to the U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) website (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/) helps anyone armed with a handheld calculator and a high school chemistry text put the volcanic CO2 tally into perspective. Because while 200 million tonnes of CO2 is large, the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions for 2003 tipped the scales at 26.8 billion tonnes. Thus, not only does volcanic CO2 not dwarf that of human activity, it actually comprises less than 1 percent of that value. .............

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/12/the-year -in-volcanic-activity/100209/


There ain't no global warming here, volcano's don't produce dat much pollution!

Da scientist sa so!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
With over 120 active erupting volcano's on earth, spewing pollutants all over the world, I agree with global warming, but NOT man made, I ask the question, on global warming? are you receiving Federal monies for studies of Global warming, any amount?
Most scientist do answer to the global warming cash cow one way or another.

Here is the link of all the erupting volcano's

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoe s.html

Well, you'll have to come up with a CO2 source much better than volcanoes; in 2010, anthropogenic CO2 emissions were about 135 times larger than that spewed out by all the volcanoes on the planet. In fact, it would take about 3,500 Mount St. Helens equivalent eruptions each year--that's nearly 10 per day--to equal the amount our burning of fossil fuels makes. And it would take about 700 Mount Pinatubo-level eruptions--about two per day--to do the same. It's estimated that in an average year, it takes man-made CO2 just 2.7 days--about 65 hours--to equal a year's worth of global volcanic activity.

Source
Quoting 1911maker:
Google is wonderful.............
Link

.........
Gas studies at volcanoes worldwide have helped volcanologists tally up a global volcanic CO2 budget in the same way that nations around the globe have cooperated to determine how much CO2 is released by human activity through the burning of fossil fuels. Our studies show that globally, volcanoes on land and under the sea release a total of about 200 million tonnes of CO2 annually.

This seems like a huge amount of CO2, but a visit to the U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) website (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/) helps anyone armed with a handheld calculator and a high school chemistry text put the volcanic CO2 tally into perspective. Because while 200 million tonnes of CO2 is large, the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions for 2003 tipped the scales at 26.8 billion tonnes. Thus, not only does volcanic CO2 not dwarf that of human activity, it actually comprises less than 1 percent of that value. .............



I've heard that argument before, but seeing is believing,
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I've heard that argument before, but seeing is believing,


Normally I avoid this kind of thing............ but you can see CO2?

Link
Carbon dioxide is a colourless odourless gas, which is soluble in water, in ethanol and in acetone.

Neapolitan, do you receive any Federal money for the work you do?
Sulphur

Sulphur is a multivalent non-metal, abundant, tasteless and and odorless. In its native form sulphur is a yellow crystalline solid. In nature it occurs as the pure element or as sulfide and sulfate minerals. Although sulphur is infamous for its smell, frequently compare to rotten eggs, that odor is actually characteristic of hydrogen sulphide (H2S).

Is a by-product of volcano's can't tell me that's good for the enviorment!
Ban:

Ban (or plural Banning) is what occurs if arguments turn rude or personal. Disagreements are fine but keep them civil and short. Banning is 100% man-made but is beneficial to the environment. Bans are soluble in water and oil. Banning usually has a minty fresh odor, but sometimes may smell like a can of Fresca.

I enjoy the debate, but please, don't take it too far like has happened on here too many times to count! Just a friendly and humorous heads up! :)
Quoting trunkmonkey:
With over 120 active erupting volcano's on earth, spewing pollutants all over the world, I agree with global warming, but NOT man made, I ask the question, on global warming? are you receiving Federal monies for studies of Global warming, any amount?
Most scientist do answer to the global warming cash cow one way or another.

Here is the link of all the erupting volcano's

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoe s.html


Human output far exceeds that of current volcanic activity. A quick google search brings up multiple pages from government, scientific, and university sites with plenty of references, and even some pretty graphs if reading isn't your thing.

And you can stop with the tired conspiracy of climate scientists chasing money. If climate scientists really wanted big bucks they'd leave university/publicly funded positions and go work in the fossil fuel industry. You don't get rich by being a climate researcher.

A large portion of researching funding for practically any branch of science you care to mention comes from the government, whether it is NIST or DoD or some other agency. If you're going to use that ridiculous brush to paint climate scientists with, then you better save enough paint for the entire scientific community.
Apocalypse News Update: Link
We all have one year to live.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We all have one year to live.


And then an undetermined number of years after that...
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
11:00 AM EST December 21 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low 02U (1000 hPa) located at 15.0S 156.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6S 157.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.7S 157.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 158.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.5. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved significantly and convection has consolidated in the vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favorable environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards, though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
I give people credit for answering dumb-a's, but the fact remains, a d.a. still remains a d.a. by virtue of some unknown factor no mattter how much intelligence addresses their d.a.-edness.
Notice how those who slam Dr. Masters usually cannot spell, use punctuation properly, or make sense. And when you answer them, typically the response is as if you'd said nothing at all.
Anyway, sorry to be so cynical, but the recent political climate has contributed to my impression that there are a lot more d.a.'s out there than any of us can imagine.
Kudos to those who continue to present intelligent opinion and fact in the face of absurdity and ignorance.
Quoting Chicklit:
I give people credit for answering dumb-a's, but the fact remains, a d.a. still remains a d.a. by virtue of some unknown factor no mattter how much intelligence addresses their d.a.-edness.


You sweet talker!
Quoting presslord:


You sweet talker!


I'm tired. Hopefully next year will be better.
Quoting Chicklit:


I'm tired. Hopefully next year will be better.


Hope springs eternal
Area in SW Pacific look niceee


Sorry to be such a Scrooge...Okay, here's something fun and 'organized!'

Link
Same as it ever was.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looking a little more seasonable early next week for West Palm Beach...



About time it gets reasonably cooler down here. I'm surprised we haven't hit the 40s yet, we usually do around November/early December.
0054Z 21 DECEMBER 2011


SITUATION
At 0000Z a a Tropical Low was centred with 60 NM of 15.0S
156.6E
Recent movement: southeast at 09 knots
Maximum winds: 30 knots
Center pressure: 1000mb
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours.


yaaay...i guess
Australian 4 day outlook. 2 TC by the weekend. Darwin to get a Cyclone on Christmas day, Lets hope it's not like 1974.


Click image for larger image.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, you'll have to come up with a CO2 source much better than volcanoes; in 2010, anthropogenic CO2 emissions were about 135 times larger than that spewed out by all the volcanoes on the planet. In fact, it would take about 3,500 Mount St. Helens equivalent eruptions each year--that's nearly 10 per day--to equal the amount our burning of fossil fuels makes. And it would take about 700 Mount Pinatubo-level eruptions--about two per day--to do the same. It's estimated that in an average year, it takes man-made CO2 just 2.7 days--about 65 hours--to equal a year's worth of global volcanic activity.

Source


Even avoiding the greenhouse gas emissions of volcanoes, it has been shown for some time that volcanic activity usually has a cooling effect on climate, and climate models reproduce past climate less accurately when this natural forcing is ignored.
The years after the largest volcanic eruptions have generally shown a global reduction in temperature that is detectable.

Then if we were to add greenhouse gases back to the discussion, we can attribute CO2 concentrations to humans not just due to the correlation between human emissions and the observed increases in concentrations. We attribute increasing CO2 concentrations to humans because of the isotope signature that is specific to burning fossil fuels.
Quoting caneswatch:


About time it gets reasonably cooler down here. I'm surprised we haven't hit the 40s yet, we usually do around November/early December.


Those are just quirks, we are always warm down here.
Quoting Grothar:


Those are just quirks, we are always warm down here.


Remember…string bean casseroles this holiday season…use half & half.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Remember%u2026string bean casseroles this holiday season%u2026use half & half.


Who do you think you are, Duncan Hines?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Remember…string bean casseroles this holiday season…use half & half.


I can't believe that you let a line in #68 go by you without a comment. I was sure at least you would get it.
No Grothar..More like Chef Boyardee.
Quoting Grothar:


I can't believe that you let a line in #68 go by you without a comment. I was sure at least you would get it.


The Grothar Song
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The Grothar Song


Twit!
Can't believe how warm it is tonight.. gotta be close to 60'.. I need the cold so I'll be ready for our first Mid TN summer next year..
I did enjoy 'Grothar's song'.. one of my all time fav's.. thanks Geoffrey! We watched the fist 'Santa Clause' tonight forgot how funny that one was!
good night everyone. stay safe!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Same as it ever was.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST December 21 2011
================================================= ===

A developing tropical low is located north of the Top End in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to remain slow moving and intensify gradually. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Thursday: Low
Friday: High
Saturday: High

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:33 PM WST December 21 2011
=========================

A low is developing near 07S 92E, outside of the Western Region. This low is likely to enter the Western Region during Friday or Saturday and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday to the west of Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
im goin to bed. night all
First post since some time,but it's worth posting that in Wroclaw is snowing for the first time in the year! The temperature is 33F
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
5:00 PM EST December 21 2011
===================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low 02U (1001 hPa) located at 16.1S 157.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.6S 157.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 20.9S 156.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.5S 158.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.35 degree wrap, giving DT of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.0. FT based on MT as DT is not clear. CI held at 2.5.

Overnight convection has sheared off with persistent convection remaining near the LLCC. CIMSS analysing 20 knots of shear over the system which is likely the cause for lack of development. Models hinting at similar shear for the next 36-48 hours. Slow development is still considered likely over this period with inflow/outflow favorable.

An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Human output far exceeds that of current volcanic activity. A quick google search brings up multiple pages from government, scientific, and university sites with plenty of references, and even some pretty graphs if reading isn't your thing.

And you can stop with the tired conspiracy of climate scientists chasing money. If climate scientists really wanted big bucks they'd leave university/publicly funded positions and go work in the fossil fuel industry. You don't get rich by being a climate researcher.

A large portion of researching funding for practically any branch of science you care to mention comes from the government, whether it is NIST or DoD or some other agency. If you're going to use that ridiculous brush to paint climate scientists with, then you better save enough paint for the entire scientific community.


Well, some do:

A Summary of James E. Hansen%u2019s NASA Ethics File

By Christopher Horner

"NASA records released to resolve litigation filed by the American Tradition Institute reveal that Dr. James E. Hansen, an astronomer, received approximately $1.6 million in outside, direct cash income in the past five years for work related to - and, according to his benefactors, often expressly for - his public service as a global warming activist within NASA.

This does not include six-figure income over that period in travel expenses to fly around the world to receive money from outside interests. As specifically detailed below, Hansen failed to report tens of thousands of dollars in global travel provided to him by outside parties - including to London, Paris, Rome, Oslo, Tokyo, the Austrian Alps, Bilbao, California, Australia and elsewhere, often business or first-class and also often paying for his wife as well - to receive honoraria to speak about the topic of his taxpayer-funded employment, or get cash awards for his activism and even for his past testimony and other work for NASA..."

More details here:

Summary of James Hansen's Ethics Files

And here:

"...ATI obtained Dr. Hansen's Form SF 278, which is required to be filed annually, also under the Freedom of Information Act. The disclosure revealed that Dr. Hansen received between $236,000 and $1,232,500 in outside income in 2010 relating to his taxpayer-funded employment, which included:

Between $26,008 and $72,500 in honoraria for speeches;

Between $150,001 and $1.1 million in prizes;

Just under $60,000 in the form of in-kind income for travel to his many outside-income generating activities..."

Wealth Keeps Flowing for Dr James Hansen
We are off and running for the Australian Tropical Cyclone Season.

The Tropical Low off the N coast of Australia is expected to hit Darwin "maybe" Christmas Day as a Cyclone. The Tropical Low off the NE coast of Qld is expected to drift SE and also become a Cyclone in the next few hours and to continue to drift SE.





TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm CST on Wednesday 21 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres north of Croker Island and
350 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and
moving west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday
north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24
hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 132.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 21 December.
Those such as Xyrus2000 and Napolian, need to condemn such people such as Dr. Hansen, but NO, these bloggers condemn me for exposing those who are ripping off the taxpayer.
There is no difference between these thieves and the Wall street thugs stealing our money.

When stealing the taxpayer money stops for studies of global warming, I will be more receptive to this endeavor.
Also political agendas involved with global warming studies needs to stop too!
Anti-American, anti-capitalism, has shown it's ugly head with the studies of global warming.


Very heavy rain across the FL Panhandle this morning. Several inches fell last night in some spots.



Quoting trunkmonkey:
Those such as Xyrus2000 and Napolian, need to condemn such people such as Dr. Hansen, but NO, these bloggers condemn me for exposing those who are ripping off the taxpayer.
There is no difference between these thieves and the Wall street thugs stealing our money.

When stealing the taxpayer money stops for studies of global warming, I will be more receptive to this endeavor.
Also political agendas involved with global warming studies needs to stop too!
Anti-American, anti-capitalism, has shown it's ugly head with the studies of global warming.



Assuming you're talking about me (and not, say, the early 19th Century French Emperor), there are a couple of things to keep in mind:

1) Much of the money Dr. Hansen earns is not from "ripping off the taxpayer", but rather is a result of numerous awards and speaking fees. Hansen is highly-educated, holding degrees in Astronomy, Physics, and Mathematics. And he's been with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies for nearly 45 years, both as a worker and as the lead. As such, he's in high demand in his specialty, as are most people with his education, experience, and career length.

2) There have been numerous inquiries into and audits of Hansen--mostly at the behest of Big Energy-funded outfits like the murky American Tradition Institute--and none have turned up a single shred of real evidence that he has ever taken taxpayer money for anything he shouldn't have. When he travels on non-government business, it's at his own expense, or at the expense of those wishing him to speak.

A side question: how can Hansen be accused of capitalizing on his position, while at the same time be called an anti-capitalist?

Anti-American? Really?
120. DDR
Expecting another round of rains today and tonight in T&T,2 inches fell this morning.
US Current WX map.

Depending on one's point of view, this is either good news or bad:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
634 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

....

AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALASKA
INTERIOR...PUFFY COAT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
ALASKA INTERIOR. WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL BECOME
MUCH COLDER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 25 BELOW TO 30
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES OCCUR...TEMPERATURES
OF 40 BELOW OR COLDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
. THE
COLD SNAP IS LIKELY TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE FIRST 19 DAYS OF DECEMBER...TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS HAVE
AVERAGED ABOUT 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Depending on one's point of view, this is either good news or bad:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
634 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

....

AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALASKA
INTERIOR...PUFFY COAT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE INTO THE ALASKA INTERIOR BY
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
ALASKA INTERIOR. WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL BECOME
MUCH COLDER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUD COVER. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 25 BELOW TO 30
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES OCCUR...TEMPERATURES
OF 40 BELOW OR COLDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
. THE
COLD SNAP IS LIKELY TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE FIRST 19 DAYS OF DECEMBER...TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS HAVE
AVERAGED ABOUT 16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


WOW 16 degrees above average!
good to see n fl and s georgia getting some rain watching the developing cyclone ne of darwin
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Those such as Xyrus2000 and Napolian, need to condemn such people such as Dr. Hansen, but NO, these bloggers condemn me for exposing those who are ripping off the taxpayer.
There is no difference between these thieves and the Wall street thugs stealing our money.

When stealing the taxpayer money stops for studies of global warming, I will be more receptive to this endeavor.
Also political agendas involved with global warming studies needs to stop too!
Anti-American, anti-capitalism, has shown it's ugly head with the studies of global warming.




You will get it for this one......:))))) Merry Christmas or on this blog must I say Happy Holidays!
Before and After TS Washi.

A couple of interesting blobs in the Eastern Pacific..
0.77" at my house from the rains, but as much as 2 inches in and around the Houston area, hit and miss. More rains coming tomm. in SE TX.
A little closer..
Quoting RitaEvac:
0.77" at my house from the rains, but as much as 2 inches in and around the Houston area, hit and miss. More rains coming tomm. in SE TX.
Good morning R.E...Good that the rain is falling in your region. Still need some more tho..
There are now 365 Giorni days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Weds.
Check out the plume from the Pacific. That is heading for TX and will bring rains
Quoting hydrus:
A little closer..


You typically see that during El-Nino. Looks as if lots moisture will continue to get pumped into the Southern Branch (jetstream) over the next few weeks.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


You typically see that during El-Nino. Looks as if lots moisture will continue to get pumped into the Southern Branch (jetstream) over the next few weeks.

It is raining hard here on the plateau, with a lot more in the forecast. We could use a break from the rain,,,its too wet.
Interesting article on severe weather slacking off on weekends. Seems to be related to less air pollution on our days off.

"More particles means more cloud droplets, but they%u2019re competing for a limited pool of water vapor. Consequently, more cloud droplets also means smaller cloud droplets. The smaller the droplets, the less rain develops at low altitudes as warm air along a front rises and cools. Instead, the moisture is carried higher into the cloud before condensing."

News article refers to research reported here: Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011. DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016214
Quoting bappit:
Interesting article on severe weather slacking off on weekends. Seems to be related to less air pollution on our days off.

"More particles means more cloud droplets, but they’re competing for a limited pool of water vapor. Consequently, more cloud droplets also means smaller cloud droplets. The smaller the droplets, the less rain develops at low altitudes as warm air along a front rises and cools. Instead, the moisture is carried higher into the cloud before condensing."


No more driving to work then, sit home and work from home
Quoting StormTracker2K:


You typically see that during El-Nino. Looks as if lots moisture will continue to get pumped into the Southern Branch (jetstream) over the next few weeks.



Missing west and north TX though
Quoting RitaEvac:


No more driving to work then, sit home and work from home

Nah, we'll just send your job overseas.
Quoting TampaSpin:


You will get it for this one......:))))) Merry Christmas or on this blog must I say Happy Holidays!


Merry Christmas to you as well, Tampaspin.

Both Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays would be appropriate since a week after Christmas we also celebrate the beginning of a new year. Hanukkah is also celebrated around this time of the year.
Quoting bappit:

Nah, we'll just send your job overseas.


Already doing good job at that
Happy Feast of the Unconquered Sun everyone!!!
Installed the weatherunderground app on my Droid last night. Deleted TWC
Quoting RitaEvac:
Check out the plume from the Pacific. That is heading for TX and will bring rains


Yes, it appears that we are finally get some rains. This is happening just as my pecan trees are starting to go dormant. I hope they are saving it up!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, it appears that we are finally get some rains. This is happening just as my pecan trees are starting to go dormant. I hope they are saving it up!


I always wondered, if good rains come in the winter, but everything is dormant, how much good is it to the trees. Seems the summer rains are more important than winter, since trees need the water while in growing stage


Yemen and 3 others Growing Fear at Plight of Stranded Ethiopian Migrants in Yemen as Funds to Assist Them Run Out


Report— International Organization for Migration
Yemen - There is growing concern and fear at IOM over the fate of many thousands of Ethiopian migrants stranded for several months in northern Yemen in desperate conditions as funds run out to assist the most vulnerable among them.

Since November 2010, IOM has been providing critical humanitarian assistance including shelter, health care and return and reintegration assistance to thousands of migrants stranded in Yemen who want to return home, with the Organization so far having provided 6,169 Ethiopian migrants with return and reintegration assistance.

IOM operations to assist more migrants would have run out but for some emergency stop-gap funding from Saudia Arabia and Japan which will allow the Organization to help a group to return home to Ethiopia soon.

IOM is urgently appealing to donors to fund an appeal of USD 2.6 million. The funds would allow it to assist 6,000 Ethiopian migrants, many of them unaccompanied minors and women in a highly vulnerable situation from a horrific ordeal that shows no sign of ending without humanitarian intervention.

Nearly 18,300 Ethiopian migrants have been registered in the northern town of Haradh on the border with Saudia Arabia in the past 12 months, many of them migrants returned from Saudia Arabia due to their irregular status.

In addition, 2011 has seen a dramatic increase in the number of Ethiopians arriving in Yemen from the Horn of Africa – up from 34,422 in 2010 to more than 65,000 so far this year. It is likely that about 100,000 Ethiopians and Somalis will have crossed the sea into Yemen by the end of 2011, with many having been driven by the drought and famine that struck the Horn of Africa this year.

In Haradh, the vast majority of the migrants are living in open, unprotected spaces in the urban centre without access to food, water, sanitation, shelter or means to earn money. The long period of instability in Yemen which has had a great impact on the population at large, has further marginalized destitute migrants, made further vulnerable by allegations that they are being recruited by opposing factions to fight.

An IOM departure centre for migrants in Haradh with a maximum capacity of 150 is now hosting 350 migrants, the majority of them unaccompanied minors and medical cases.

Having left their poverty-stricken lives in Ethiopia in search of employment in the Gulf and beyond, Ethiopian migrants embark on a life-threatening journey across the Horn of Africa, through the Gulf of Aden and through conflict-ridden Yemen by using smuggling networks.

Those lucky enough to survive this long, dangerous journey either find themselves stranded at the Saudi border unable to progress further or returned from the Gulf country after having been detained there as irregular migrants and are invariably assaulted by smugglers and traffickers. Women and unaccompanied minors are the most vulnerable as they are often kidnapped, exploited and assaulted by smugglers.

Their exhausting ordeal and that of all the migrants in general means many migrants are suffering from illnesses including diarrheal diseases, malaria, respiratory tract infections, snake bites from sleeping in the open, or are suffering from broken limbs, gunshot wounds and other signs of mistreatment from human traffickers and smugglers. A clinic run by IOM in conjunction with the Yemeni Red Crescent is currently overflowing with severe medical cases with IOM and partners including the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) carrying out about 2,300 medical consultations each month.

At least 30 migrants in Haradh have known to have died in the past month, though that figure is likely to be higher as there is no clear data available on the deaths that occur at the border and other areas.

"The situation is dire to the extreme. We need to be able to provide assistance on a much larger scale and to get those migrants who want to return to Ethiopia back to the safety of their homes and families now. We cannot stress enough the urgency of this appeal to donors," says Nicoletta Giordano, IOM Chief of Mission in Yemen.

IOM staff in Yemen say at least 1,000 migrants have been ready to travel immediately for some time and at least another 3,000 keep gathering in front of the IOM centre in Haradh for help, but that the lack of funds has left the Organization hamstrung in the face of such suffering.

Operations to help most of the 1,000 travel-ready migrants return to Ethiopia are due to resume in the coming days. Among the 275 migrants about to leave Haradh are 19 unaccompanied minors as well as eight migrants being given IOM medical escort following the physical torture they endured at the hands of human smugglers.

A further 550 migrants will Haradh in the next couple of weeks after which evacuation funds run out.

It will mean that without a speedy response to IOM's appeal of USD 2.6 million, many thousands of migrants will be left at a great and unacceptable danger.

For further information, please contact:

Brian Wittbold IOM Yemen Tel: + 967 736708812 E-mail: bwittbold@iom.int
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Well I'm assuming the ones such as Neapolitan with the extreme, left-wing Marxist political agenda would be content with a little whisper of "Happy Holidays"...

But we don't live in a communist nation, so therefore I say, "Merry Christmas", TampaSpin.

A request: for at least this holiday season, can you please just settle on a single one of your many handles and stick to it? We're getting tennis whiplash from trying to keep up with your various incarnations...

Anyway, what you (and your "alternates") constantly refer to as an "extreme, left-wing Marxist political agenda" is what thinking people call "caring for our planet and its inhabitants". Realizing the damage the mindless pursuit of profit over all else has caused to the environment doesn't make one a Marxist, just as wanting to consider other forms of energy besides the burning of fossil fuels doesn't make one an extremist.

For what it's worth, "Happy Holidays" is fine with me, as is "Seasons Greetings". But if you insist on being historically accurate, there's probably no better greeting than "Bona Dies Natalis Solis Invicti".
Quoting RitaEvac:


I always wondered, if good rains come in the winter, but everything is dormant, how much good is it to the trees


I am not certain as to an answer to that question. My best guess would be that as long as the soil retains moisture it will give the trees a head start once they awaken from their winter rest. This season my two trees produced enough pecans to maybe get a gallon bucket full. Even the squirrels moved on to better pickings!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Installed the weatherunderground app on my Droid last night. Deleted TWC


thats good. replacing TWC> buncha media crap who overeacts things and makes a simple storm look biger and worse then it really is...LAME
Quoting Neapolitan:

"Bona Dies Natalis Solis Invicti".


The Birthday of the Unconquered Sun - is the celebration of the day when the nights begin to get shorter originating from various Roman sun-based cults, including possibly the Mithraic Mysteries. The Winter solstice is on 21 December, but the days don't start getting noticeably longer till about the 25th.

Feliz Navida.....
Quoting SPLbeater:


thats good. replacing TWC> buncha media crap who overeacts things and makes a simple storm look biger and worse then it really is...LAME


Cuz they are owned by NBC now
Quoting Patrap:
Feliz Navida.....


How's the rain totals holding up over there, no more drought right?
I had heard that pecan trees benefit from a warm fall so they are able to get a head start on storing food for the next year. Of course, drought would negate that.
Sock puppets unite!
Quoting bappit:
Interesting article on severe weather slacking off on weekends. Seems to be related to less air pollution on our days off.

"More particles means more cloud droplets, but they%u2019re competing for a limited pool of water vapor. Consequently, more cloud droplets also means smaller cloud droplets. The smaller the droplets, the less rain develops at low altitudes as warm air along a front rises and cools. Instead, the moisture is carried higher into the cloud before condensing."

News article refers to research reported here: Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011. DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016214


There was an article a few years back that explained how the growth of suburbs was helping to make weather more extreme in metropolitan areas (due to the fact that hot dry and cool wet areas exist in suburbs due to paving and vegetation compared to more paving in cities and more vegetation in rural areas) and uses the 2008 Atlanta tornado and a severe flooding episode in Mumbai show how microclimatic effects of cities can have devastating impact.
Link

Also I can't remember where I saw it, but there was an article also pointing out that smog over the Persian Gulf is making cyclones there worse. Fascinating stuff.
Looks like FL is heading into a wet pattern. Which is great as Western and S FL have been dry as of late.

Rather unusual to see a slight risk area so far north this late in the year..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Depending on one's point of view, this is either good news or bad:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
634 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

....

AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALASKA
INTERIOR...PUFFY COAT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS
WEEKEND.
Puffy Coat Weather??
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
Tropical Low 04U
11:00 PM CST December 21 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (1001 hPa) located at 9.6S 132.3E or 175 km north of Croker Island and 350 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 9.0S 132.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 10.1S 133.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 10.6S 132.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Persistence used as key determinant for current position - rotation evident in IR further to the west appears to be associated remnant mid level cloud from earlier convection. Recent storm activity hints at consolidation near previous position.

Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level easterly burst is expected to produce mostly favorable conditions suited for rapid development of a small system. Unidirectional nature of upper flow may be a limiting factor for a period until the trough relaxes sufficiently to allow the upper high to consolidate.

Widely varying model guidance, with little intra run or intra model consistency, suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. Longer term motion could be ESE driven by capture of the mid to upper level trough, or by subsequent post trough ridging, forcing a WSW track.

The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favored at present, though warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
11:00 PM EST December 21 2011
===================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low 02U (998 hPa) located at 17.1S 157.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.3S 157.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.4S 157.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.4S 159.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis FT 2.5 based on MET and PAT.

Persistent convection this afternoon has increased over the last few hours, probably coincident with a decrease in shear from CIMSS to between 10 and 20 knots. 0806UTC TMI 37GHz image shows reasonable banding and organisation in the low levels. Good outflow to the southeast with northwest shear still over the system. Models hinting at similar shear for the next 36-48 hours. Slow development is forecast over this period and the system is considered likely to become a tropical cyclone on Thursday morning.

An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder tropical development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Quoting JNCali:
Puffy Coat Weather??
lol
Quoting JNCali:
Puffy Coat Weather??
I'm not able to find that terminology in any of my MET glossarys.. Will FL be getting 'Tube Top and Flip Flop' forecasts this summer?
Quoting JNCali:
I'm not able to find that terminology in any of my MET glossarys.. Will FL be getting 'Tube Top and Flip Flop' forecasts this summer?

Dude, you totally killed it.
No white Christmas for Canadians in 2011

Most Canadians will not wake up to a white Christmas on December 25 for the first time since Canada's weather office began recording snowfalls in 1955, the government agency said Wednesday.

With just days before the Christian holiday, Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips told AFP he has never seen so little snowpack in Canada's cities. And the forecast for the coming days is sunny and very mild.

"A white Christmas is usually a sure thing in Canada, but not this year," Phillips said. "We are usually the snowiest country in the world," he said. "But this year, like no other since we've been monitoring in 56 years, there will be many Canadians just dreaming of a white Christmas and not getting one."

For a city to qualify as having a white Christmas, Environment Canada must note at least two centimeters (0.79 inches) of snow on the ground at 7 am on December 25.

This month has been on average six to seven degrees (Celsius) warmer than normal and most snow that has fallen has melted soon after hitting the ground. Gander, Newfoundland -- usually "the snowiest place in Canada" -- only has a trace of snow on the ground today, Phillips noted. Winnipeg, Manitoba -- once ranked the coldest metropolis on Earth -- usually has a 98 percent chance of snow at Christmas. But temperatures in the west of the country are expected to hover just above freezing in the coming days.

Other cities in the east like Saint John's, Newfoundland have a few centimeters of snow on the ground but rain is forecast.

Phillips said Canadian winters are generally becoming milder, and starting later, and so the idea of a white Christmas may be something of the past. He pointed to a combination of climate change and an "urban heat island effect" created by Canada's growing cities. High energy use generates heat that is retained by materials in urban developments, resulting in areas that are consistently hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Source

I wouldn't worry; I'm sure it's just coincidence. ;-)
Quoting hcubed:


Well, some do:

A Summary of James E. Hansen%u2019s NASA Ethics File

By Christopher Horner

"NASA records released to resolve litigation filed by the American Tradition Institute reveal that Dr. James E. Hansen, an astronomer, received approximately $1.6 million in outside, direct cash income in the past five years for work related to - and, according to his benefactors, often expressly for - his public service as a global warming activist within NASA.

This does not include six-figure income over that period in travel expenses to fly around the world to receive money from outside interests. As specifically detailed below, Hansen failed to report tens of thousands of dollars in global travel provided to him by outside parties - including to London, Paris, Rome, Oslo, Tokyo, the Austrian Alps, Bilbao, California, Australia and elsewhere, often business or first-class and also often paying for his wife as well - to receive honoraria to speak about the topic of his taxpayer-funded employment, or get cash awards for his activism and even for his past testimony and other work for NASA..."

More details here:

Summary of James Hansen's Ethics Files

And here:

"...ATI obtained Dr. Hansen's Form SF 278, which is required to be filed annually, also under the Freedom of Information Act. The disclosure revealed that Dr. Hansen received between $236,000 and $1,232,500 in outside income in 2010 relating to his taxpayer-funded employment, which included:

Between $26,008 and $72,500 in honoraria for speeches;

Between $150,001 and $1.1 million in prizes;

Just under $60,000 in the form of in-kind income for travel to his many outside-income generating activities..."

Wealth Keeps Flowing for Dr James Hansen


Hansen is hardly the "typical" scientist. He has worked in his field for decades and is among the top 1% of researchers.

Becoming a scientist and expecting to get 7 figure income is sort of like becoming an actor and expecting a 7 figure income. Yeah, it can happen but it's very unlikely. For every person like Hansen, there's thousands that aren't. For example, the average salary for an ESTABLISHED scientist (5 years after graduation) is $75K. The average salary for a Ph.D 20 years out is $102K. That's across all research disciplines, no just climate science.

Now that's a pretty good salary, but that certainly isn't going to make you independently wealthy. If you work hard and catch some breaks (or by rare circumstance come up with a major breakthrough) you can make more, but it's very unlikely you'll be pulling in thousands to millions of dollars from awards, speaking fees, etc. unless you're really exceptional in your field. And that's pretty much the general rule for any profession out there, though some are less competitive than science research.

By comparison, there are a number of jobs that don't require a Ph.D and pay just as well or better (business manager, software engineer, finance, etc.). So if money was their goal, they'd leave the science field and pursue something a little more lucrative.

My response to the tired old denier money conspiracy claim is that if climate scientists really wanted money, they wouldn't have become climate scientists or they would sell out. It is unlikely that any researcher will get rich just by being a scientist.
There's a lot of people using multiple handles on here today...Lets just stick to one. ;)
Quoting Neapolitan:
No white Christmas for Canadians in 2011



Maybe one Canadian, the one with the halo :)


Quoting Neapolitan:
No white Christmas for Canadians in 2011

Most Canadians will not wake up to a white Christmas on December 25 for the first time since Canada's weather office began recording snowfalls in 1955, the government agency said Wednesday.

With just days before the Christian holiday, Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips told AFP he has never seen so little snowpack in Canada's cities. And the forecast for the coming days is sunny and very mild.

"A white Christmas is usually a sure thing in Canada, but not this year," Phillips said. "We are usually the snowiest country in the world," he said. "But this year, like no other since we've been monitoring in 56 years, there will be many Canadians just dreaming of a white Christmas and not getting one."

For a city to qualify as having a white Christmas, Environment Canada must note at least two centimeters (0.79 inches) of snow on the ground at 7 am on December 25.

This month has been on average six to seven degrees (Celsius) warmer than normal and most snow that has fallen has melted soon after hitting the ground. Gander, Newfoundland -- usually "the snowiest place in Canada" -- only has a trace of snow on the ground today, Phillips noted. Winnipeg, Manitoba -- once ranked the coldest metropolis on Earth -- usually has a 98 percent chance of snow at Christmas. But temperatures in the west of the country are expected to hover just above freezing in the coming days.

Other cities in the east like Saint John's, Newfoundland have a few centimeters of snow on the ground but rain is forecast.

Phillips said Canadian winters are generally becoming milder, and starting later, and so the idea of a white Christmas may be something of the past. He pointed to a combination of climate change and an "urban heat island effect" created by Canada's growing cities. High energy use generates heat that is retained by materials in urban developments, resulting in areas that are consistently hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Source

I wouldn't worry; I'm sure it's just coincidence. ;-)


Yea.... just more propaganda




And it's so warm that ice magically is taken over Canada's lakes too....coincidence

Quoting Neapolitan:
No white Christmas for Canadians in 2011

Most Canadians will not wake up to a white Christmas on December 25 for the first time since Canada's weather office began recording snowfalls in 1955, the government agency said Wednesday....

....Phillips said Canadian winters are generally becoming milder, and starting later, and so the idea of a white Christmas may be something of the past. He pointed to a combination of climate change and an "urban heat island effect" created by Canada's growing cities. High energy use generates heat that is retained by materials in urban developments, resulting in areas that are consistently hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Source

I wouldn't worry; I'm sure it's just coincidence. ;-)





Urban Heat Island effect in Canada? Gimme what he's drinking! Canada has almost 10 million square kilometers of land area.. and a population of +/- 34 million folks which is about the same as the State of California... I could see the upstream urban heat effect from China maybe.. or maybe Levi's office in AK.. but the cities in Canada surrounded by all those millions of sq km of undeveloped land? NEXT! (IMHO)
Canadians just pi$$ed off they aren't getting fresh snow on the ground. other than that take that article and.....
Quoting JNCali:Urban Heat Island effect in Canada? Gimme what he's drinking! Canada has almost 10 million square kilometers of land area.. and a population of /- 34 million folks which is about the same as the State of California... I could see the upstream urban heat effect from China maybe.. or maybe Levi's office in AK.. but the cities in Canada surrounded by all those millions of sq km of undeveloped land? NEXT! (IMHO)
Quoting RitaEvac:
And it's so warm that ice magically is taken over Canada's lakes too....coincidence
The article specifically refers to the chances of a white Christmas in Canada's cities. As such, the urban heat island effect would, in concert with overall climate change, definitely have an effect on local snowfall and snow cover. (Hence the word "island".)
Quoting Neapolitan:

The article specifically refers to the chances of a white Christmas in Canada's cities. As such, the urban heat island effect would, in concert with overall climate change, definitely have an effect on local snowfall and snow cover.


Correct. But smooooooth all that out, and you still have snow across the country

Quoting RitaEvac:


Correct. But smooooooth all that out, and you still have snow across the country

True. But then again, no one is disputing that, least of all the author of the article--so talk of "propaganda" and "I'll have what he's drinking" are sort of misplaced. No?
Why do people believe what they read....anybody can print anything. If it's printed, it's the golden rule, people better wake up
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. But then again, no one is disputing that, least of all the author of the article--so talk of "propaganda" and "I'll have what he's drinking" are sort of misplaced. No?


The article is making it sound like it's so warm in Canada there is no snow and that will be the way of the future. Which is what the article is trying to get the public to believe.
Less snow due to heat island effect and GW or more snow caused by more moisture in the atmosphere from GW. I thought there was no heat island effect on surface temps. So more snow GW, less snow GW. You can't lose the debate when you take both sides of the argument. I also did not know Gander was the snowiest place in Canada, I bet those wimps in British Columbia would disagree as would I. Gander snowiest place in Canada may be the stupidest thing I hear all day.
Is there a snow depth map for Canada?
Quoting Neapolitan:
No white Christmas for Canadians in 2011

Most Canadians will not wake up to a white Christmas on December 25 for the first time since Canada's weather office began recording snowfalls in 1955, the government agency said Wednesday.

With just days before the Christian holiday, Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips told AFP he has never seen so little snowpack in Canada's cities. And the forecast for the coming days is sunny and very mild.

"A white Christmas is usually a sure thing in Canada, but not this year," Phillips said. "We are usually the snowiest country in the world," he said. "But this year, like no other since we've been monitoring in 56 years, there will be many Canadians just dreaming of a white Christmas and not getting one."

For a city to qualify as having a white Christmas, Environment Canada must note at least two centimeters (0.79 inches) of snow on the ground at 7 am on December 25.

This month has been on average six to seven degrees (Celsius) warmer than normal and most snow that has fallen has melted soon after hitting the ground. Gander, Newfoundland -- usually "the snowiest place in Canada" -- only has a trace of snow on the ground today, Phillips noted. Winnipeg, Manitoba -- once ranked the coldest metropolis on Earth -- usually has a 98 percent chance of snow at Christmas. But temperatures in the west of the country are expected to hover just above freezing in the coming days.

Other cities in the east like Saint John's, Newfoundland have a few centimeters of snow on the ground but rain is forecast.

Phillips said Canadian winters are generally becoming milder, and starting later, and so the idea of a white Christmas may be something of the past. He pointed to a combination of climate change and an "urban heat island effect" created by Canada's growing cities. High energy use generates heat that is retained by materials in urban developments, resulting in areas that are consistently hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Source

I wouldn't worry; I'm sure it's just coincidence. ;-)


This has been a very unusual December for sure.
Closest one I can find




RitaEvac-

found this map of snow depth for US, but you can see southern canada with it.

Link

If that dont satisfy here is one for entire Canada..or atleast the parts beneath 65.0N

Link
Southern Jet Branch, is primed and ready to go, streaming over MX and TX and cloud levels dropping in the mid and low levels. Classic rain setup
Looks like any chance of temperatures less than 50 degrees for lows has evaporated in my area in Florida for the next 10 days.

First day of winter and its nearing 80 degrees at 2pm.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like FL is heading into a wet pattern. Which is great as Western and S FL have been dry as of late.

we sure can use the rain here in central florida, this is our dry season and any rain we get now is a plus. p.s. its beautiful here temp wise, high 70's with a nice breeze..almost spring like
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like any chance of temperatures less than 50 degrees for lows has evaporated in my area in Florida for the next 10 days.

First day of winter and its nearing 80 degrees at 2pm.
I remember the winter of 88-89 in S.W.Florida. Out of roughly 90 days of winter, 65 of those days were above 80 degree,s, and just 3 nights below freezing...Winter was virtually non existent.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Southern Jet Branch, is primed and ready to go, streaming over MX and TX and cloud levels dropping in the mid and low levels. Classic rain setup


Been watching that as well. Will be nice to get a nice long moderate rain tonight into tomorrow
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like any chance of temperatures less than 50 degrees for lows has evaporated in my area in Florida for the next 10 days.

First day of winter and its nearing 80 degrees at 2pm.


What's the coolest you been so far?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like any chance of temperatures less than 50 degrees for lows has evaporated in my area in Florida for the next 10 days.

First day of winter and its nearing 80 degrees at 2pm.

Its freaking 73F here in Southeastern North Carolina. This time last year we were preparing for a snowstorm.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Been watching that as well. Will be nice to get a nice long moderate rain tonight into tomorrow


Grounds are nice and wet, we need some runoff now. A 4-5 inch rain event is what we need, even if it does cause road flooding.

A dentention pond near my subdivision is 4 ft or so below the original waterline, and been like that since summer, so I know we need lots of rain to get that thing up. Just shows how bad it still is.
The fossil fuel industry has pumped well over a billion dollars into lobbying and advertising in the last 3 years to protect its own interests, which is what lobbyists do. To not believe that we are affecting our planet negatively is to have one's head in the sand, or in this case, the tar sands.

This is the great thing about Christianity and other religions. If you don't believe what they want you to believe then bad things will happen to you, AFTER YOU DIE! How convenient is that! What a beautiful control mechanism! That argument is exactly what draws many of the nonbelievers in, this great fear of the personal unknown, which apparently we CAN'T know while we are alive.

It is too bad these same people can't see the similarity in the argument for anthropogenic global warming, and that has millions of hours of solid scientific research behind it, not just blind faith... The problem is that the majority of the results of global warming, probably won't happen in OUR lifetime, and the immediate always takes precedence, and the immediate push is consumption which ultimately IS the cause of global warming.

If 95% of the world (my guess) can believe in something they can't see, religion, than we can probably convert most of them to something they CAN see, the dangers of global warming. That is our job. GOD help our future generations if we can't succeed.
Quoting RitaEvac:


What's the coolest you been so far?


Please maintain your current weather. Heading from Panhandle to Velrico to spend Christmas with the grand kids. Next Tuesday and their after, you can get all the cool weather and rain that you can wishcast for.
Quoting debaat:
The fossil fuel industry has pumped well over a billion dollars into lobbying and advertising in the last 3 years to protect its own interests, which is what lobbyists do. To not believe that we are affecting our planet negatively is to have one's head in the sand, or in this case, the tar sands.

This is the great thing about Christianity and other religions. If you don't believe what they want you to believe then bad things will happen to you, AFTER YOU DIE! How convenient is that! What a beautiful control mechanism! That argument is exactly what draws many of the nonbelievers in, this great fear of the personal unknown, which apparently we CAN'T know while we are alive.

It is too bad these same people can't see the similarity in the argument for anthropogenic global warming, and that has millions of hours of solid scientific research behind it, not just blind faith... The problem is that the majority of the results of global warming, probably won't happen in OUR lifetime, and the immediate always takes precedence, and the immediate push is consumption which ultimately IS the cause of global warming.

If 95% of the world (my guess) can believe in something they can't see, religion, than we can probably convert most of them to something they CAN see, the dangers of global warming. That is our job. GOD help our future generations if we can't succeed.

Okay Xyrus2000
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA- EASTERN REGION
Issued By BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER
at: 1831 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical CYclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Date At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Logitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 NM
Movement Towards: south
Speed Of Movement: 10 knots
Maximum 10 Minute wind: 35 knots -WTF? 10 mins?
Maximum 3-second wind gust: 50 knots
Central Pressure: 996mb
Quoting debaat:
The fossil fuel industry has pumped well over a billion dollars into lobbying and advertising in the last 3 years to protect its own interests, which is what lobbyists do. To not believe that we are affecting our planet negatively is to have one's head in the sand, or in this case, the tar sands.

This is the great thing about Christianity and other religions. If you don't believe what they want you to believe then bad things will happen to you, AFTER YOU DIE! How convenient is that! What a beautiful control mechanism! That argument is exactly what draws many of the nonbelievers in, this great fear of the personal unknown, which apparently we CAN'T know while we are alive.

It is too bad these same people can't see the similarity in the argument for anthropogenic global warming, and that has millions of hours of solid scientific research behind it, not just blind faith... The problem is that the majority of the results of global warming, probably won't happen in OUR lifetime, and the immediate always takes precedence, and the immediate push is consumption which ultimately IS the cause of global warming.

If 95% of the world (my guess) can believe in something they can't see, religion, than we can probably convert most of them to something they CAN see, the dangers of global warming. That is our job. GOD help our future generations if we can't succeed.


But the things you can't see, is what's more real out there like a parallel universe, than something you can see that is not what it appears to be....
Quoting debaat:
The fossil fuel industry has pumped well over a billion dollars into lobbying and advertising in the last 3 years to protect its own interests, which is what lobbyists do. To not believe that we are affecting our planet negatively is to have one's head in the sand, or in this case, the tar sands.

This is the great thing about Christianity and other religions. If you don't believe what they want you to believe then bad things will happen to you, AFTER YOU DIE! How convenient is that! What a beautiful control mechanism! That argument is exactly what draws many of the nonbelievers in, this great fear of the personal unknown, which apparently we CAN'T know while we are alive.

It is too bad these same people can't see the similarity in the argument for anthropogenic global warming, and that has millions of hours of solid scientific research behind it, not just blind faith... The problem is that the majority of the results of global warming, probably won't happen in OUR lifetime, and the immediate always takes precedence, and the immediate push is consumption which ultimately IS the cause of global warming.

If 95% of the world (my guess) can believe in something they can't see, religion, than we can probably convert most of them to something they CAN see, the dangers of global warming. That is our job. GOD help our future generations if we can't succeed.


And millions upon millions of hours of what is not in front of them, that is being missed as well.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA (02U)
5:00 AM EST December 22 2011
===================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category One (996 hPa) located at 17.5S 157.2E or 1110 km east of Townsville and 940 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.5S 156.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 21.6S 156.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.9S 159.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degree separation between the estimated location of the low level center and the dense overcast, giving DT of 3.0. MT and PT suggest 2.5. FT based on DT and supporting ASCAT wind observations at 1127UTC.

Increasing shear has begun to impact on Tropical Cyclone Fina due to an amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southerly direction and should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance indicates that intensification could still be possible due to extra-tropical transition that may occur into Friday. Gale force winds are possible on Friday as this transition occurs and a surge of southeasterly winds feed into the south of the
system.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
Tropical Low 04U
4:00 AM CST December 22 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low 04U (1000 hPa) located at 9.8S 132.4E or 150 km north of Croker Island and 335 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S/12 HRS

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 9.9S 132.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 10.8S 132.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 11.0S 131.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

The monsoon trough has been active tonight with deep convection aligned with the trough across the Arafura Sea. While a broad mid level circulation can be observed in IR imagery, locating the low level system center is proving difficult. Persistence and the location of new storm activity is used as key determinant for current position.

Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level easterly burst is expected to produce mostly favorable conditions for development.

Movement of the system has been slow with westerly flow coming across the Equator and easterly flow from the continent finely balanced. Model guidance remains highly variable, with little intra run or intra model consistency, which suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. While some models are capturing the system in the mid to upper level trough and bringing it east briefly, others keep the system slow moving until the ridge over the continent pushes in and send the system west.

The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favored at present, though warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.

Dvorak classification remains at 1.5 due to constraints.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Just saw this, The earth's orbit is becoming eliptical... actually it hasbeen for 100 thousand years.. This is also contributing to climate change, but hey can't do much about that one can we...
The earth's spin of 24 hrs in one day has been slowing down before man and is still slowing down. In fact a day when earth was created was only 5 hrs, that's how fast the earth was spinning.

The moon's orbit around the earth continues to get farther away from earth, at about a humans fingernail length a year
wow, a fingernail length...thats HUGE

sarcasm flag: ON

why the heck does it matter if the moon is further away by a fingernail length? and who has been floating around in space to measure it?
Quoting RitaEvac:
The earth's spin of 24 hrs in one day has been slowing down before man and is still slowing down. In fact a day when earth was created was only 5 hrs, that's how fast the earth was spinning.

The moon's orbit around the earth continues to get farther away from earth, at about a humans fingernail length a year


Yes all true, the earth's spin could actually reverse because of the iron core reversal, very unlikely...
Quoting SPLbeater:
wow, a fingernail length...thats HUGE

sarcasm flag: ON

why the heck does it matter if the moon is further away by a fingernail length? and who has been floating around in space to measure it?


There is equipment on the moon left behind on the moon from earlier landings back in the 60s and 70s. They shoot laser beams at the moon and by how long it takes the beam to reach it is how they can determine how much the moon is moving farther away

The matter of it is, things don't stay the same EVER, and weather and climate is the same way on earth. It'll always change and will never be normal or average, so throw out the number system man is relying on.
Quoting SPLbeater:
wow, a fingernail length...thats HUGE

sarcasm flag: ON

why the heck does it matter if the moon is further away by a fingernail length? and who has been floating around in space to measure it?


Well the tides are necessary for marine life and those will slowly shrink... in 16 million years there will nolonger be a complete solar eclipse... not that i careso much about that.
Quoting RitaEvac:


There is equipment on the moon left behind on the moon from earlier landings back in the 60s and 70s. They shoot laser beams at the moon and by how long it takes the beam to reach it is how they can determine how much the moon is moving farther away


and where in the world did you get the statement that a day on earth was 5 hours when created? the Bible gives nothing to show of a day length
Quoting RitaEvac:
The earth's spin of 24 hrs in one day has been slowing down before man and is still slowing down. In fact a day when earth was created was only 5 hrs, that's how fast the earth was spinning.

The moon's orbit around the earth continues to get farther away from earth, at about a humans fingernail length a year
I,m scared Poncho...B.S....you aint scared a no man..there,s somethin huntin us....and it aint no man.....were all gonna die
Quoting SPLbeater:


and where in the world did you get the statement that a day on earth was 5 hours when created? the Bible gives nothing to show of a day length


haha they extrapolate the numbers... as for the bible, God gave us what we needed for our salvation hope i don't get banned for this
good greif
Quoting SPLbeater:


and where in the world did you get the statement that a day on earth was 5 hours when created? the Bible gives nothing to show of a day length
They can deduce the spindown rate from today,s measurements.
Quoting SPLbeater:


and where in the world did you get the statement that a day on earth was 5 hours when created? the Bible gives nothing to show of a day length


Theory
Quoting weatherh98:


haha they extrapolate the numbers... as for the bible, God gave us what we needed for our salvation hope i don't get banned for this


i lost interest in scientists when they said we could talk to clouds. anybody know when th first records of a day length were reocrded?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Theory


a theory that is probably made by some scientists that are bored lol.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i lost interest in scientists when they said we could talk to clouds. anybody know when th first records of a day length were reocrded?


not gonna be 5, nothing existed on this rock at that time
Quoting SPLbeater:


i lost interest in scientists when they said we could talk to clouds. anybody know when th first records of a day length were reocrded?


eerr im thinking google...Im not sure we could even measure this minute... over 4 billion years this wouldve happened, not 30-40
Man you can see TC Fina's LLCC clearly
I thought that the Christian faith disproved Geneses and the first 5 bible stories because evolutionism was indeed correct. Geneses was just a way for people without science to understand life before human history.
Quoting hydrus:
I,m scared Poncho...B.S....you aint scared a no man..there,s somethin huntin us....and it aint no man.....were all gonna die


Predator. Ask Arnold.
Quoting yqt1001:
I thought that the Christian faith disproved Geneses and the first 5 bible stories because evolutionism was indeed correct. Geneses was just a way for people without science to understand life before human history.


They say God gave us what we needed to know for our salvation... let us figure it out i guess
Concerning next year's hurricane season:

Weather Services International (WSI) has issued their extended-range prediction for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for near average numbers. In their report:

* 12 named storms are expected, of which 7 will intensify into hurricanes, and 3 will become major hurricanes.

* A cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not observed in the past decade and the weakening of La Nina will keep the hurricane season relatively tame.

* The probability of a USA landfall is near normal.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast is slightly reduced.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast is slightly elevated.

Link
As Sir George Darwin deduced back in 1897, the Moon is spiraling away from Earth under the influence of the ocean tides that the Moon creates here. The fact that the Moon is moving away from us has been proven over the decades since 1969 when Apollo 11 astronauts left a reflector array on the Moon. By sending laser beams from Earth to the Moon and timing their round trips, astronomers have determined that the Moon is spiraling away from Earth at a rate of about 3.82 cm (1.5 in) per year. This means, of course, that the Earth and Moon were closer together in the past.

Quoting yqt1001:
I thought that the Christian faith disproved Geneses and the first 5 bible stories because evolutionism was indeed correct. Geneses was just a way for people without science to understand life before human history.


true Christian faith, puts all faith in the Lord, and nothing in the bible is false. nothng. NOTHING. evolution is what has everybody fooled these days...like GW, 2012, and alot more
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Concerning next year's hurricane season:

Weather Services International (WSI) has issued their extended-range prediction for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for near average numbers. In their report:

* 12 named storms are expected, of which 7 will intensify into hurricanes, and 3 will become major hurricanes.

* A cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not observed in the past decade and the weakening of La Nina will keep the hurricane season relatively tame.

* The probability of a USA landfall is near normal.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast is slightly reduced.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast is slightly elevated.

Link


thank you for posting something about weather. have you written a blog lately?
Quoting SPLbeater:


true Christian faith, puts all faith in the Lord, and nothing in the bible is false. nothng. NOTHING. evolution is what has everybody fooled these days...like GW, 2012, and alot more


Well, I dunno about you, but I go to a catholic school (I'm forced) and I learned yesterday that evolutionism is correct.

Take it how you want, but I'm just saying what I learned.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Concerning next year's hurricane season%u2014

Weather Services International (WSI) has issued their extended-range prediction for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for near average numbers. In their report:

* 12 named storms are expected, of which 7 will intensify into hurricanes, and 3 will become major hurricanes.

* A cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not observed in the past decade and the weakening of La Nina will keep the hurricane season relatively tame.

* The probability of a USA landfall is near normal.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast is slightly reduced.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast is slightly elevated.

Link


thanks good to know
Quoting RitaEvac:
As Sir George Darwin deduced back in 1897, the Moon is spiraling away from Earth under the influence of the ocean tides that the Moon creates here. The fact that the Moon is moving away from us has been proven over the decades since 1969 when Apollo 11 astronauts left a reflector array on the Moon. By sending laser beams from Earth to the Moon and timing their round trips, astronomers have determined that the Moon is spiraling away from Earth at a rate of about 3.82 cm (1.5 in) per year. This means, of course, that the Earth and Moon were closer together in the past.



Yea this is happening on mars, one is going to hit mars in 50 million years and the otherwill be thrown away
Quoting SPLbeater:


thank you for posting something about weather. have you written a blog lately?

No, I don't do off-season blogs other than the Tropical Cyclone Reports I have recently started doing.

I put Cindy's TCR on my blog by the way, if anybody didn't see it yesterday.
Quoting yqt1001:


Well, I dunno about you, but I go to a catholic school (I'm forced) and I learned yesterday that evolutionism is correct.

Take it how you want, but I'm just saying what I learned.



I do to and they said the same haha im trying to tell you what the church says about it
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1123 am CST Wednesday Dec 21 2011



Short range...

another complicated forecast tonight. Warm/humid conditions will persist today as the front is expected to remain stalled over the area with isolated to scattered showers expected along and to the
east of the boundary.


On Thursday...an upper trough moving through Texas will result in a surface low developing on the tail end of the front over the western Gulf.

This low will move quickly northeastward along the
stalled boundary and will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms as it moves through the region. Have bumped probability of precipitation up to the 80 to 90 percent range across the entire area for Thursday.

There will also be a slight risk of severe weather as the low moves through the area. While thunderstorms are expected to remain elevated at first...at least a portion of the local forecast area...probably the eastern half or third of the area...will be
located in the warm sector as this low move northeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley.

This should allow some of the thunderstorms to become surface based as the air mass becomes more unstable.

Quoting Patrap:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1123 am CST Wednesday Dec 21 2011



Short range...

another complicated forecast tonight. Warm/humid conditions will persist today as the front is expected to remain stalled over the area with isolated to scattered showers expected along and to the
east of the boundary.


On Thursday...an upper trough moving through Texas will result in a surface low developing on the tail end of the front over the western Gulf.

This low will move quickly northeastward along the
stalled boundary and will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms as it moves through the region. Have bumped probability of precipitation up to the 80 to 90 percent range across the entire area for Thursday.

There will also be a slight risk of severe weather as the low moves through the area. While thunderstorms are expected to remain elevated at first...at least a portion of the local forecast area...probably the eastern half or third of the area...will be
located in the warm sector as this low move northeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley.

This should allow some of the thunderstorms to become surface based as the air mass becomes more unstable.




Hey pat i just checked it forour areas i didnt see that lemme go check...
Quoting SPLbeater:


true Christian faith, puts all faith in the Lord, and nothing in the bible is false. nothng. NOTHING. evolution is what has everybody fooled these days...like GW, 2012, and alot more


I will ask one question and leave it at that.

Is God capable of creating something that He cannot destroy? This would be along the same lines as the question, "What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?".
Quoting SPLbeater:


true Christian faith, puts all faith in the Lord, and nothing in the bible is false. nothng. NOTHING. evolution is what has everybody fooled these days...like GW, 2012, and alot more
Yeah sure....Just like they had everybody fooled when it was said that the Earth was the center of the solar system and the Sun revolved around us. If ya believed the truth, it was heresy, punishable by death. Probably why Copernicus waited until the last minute to disclose his findings.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will ask one question and leave it at that.

Is God capable of creating something that He cannot destroy? This would be along the same lines as the question, "What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?".


ahhh but he kinda did, when satan revolted, he couldnt destroyor kill the demons and devil because they were immortal, he just put them in hell
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will ask one question and leave it at that.

Is God capable of creating something that He cannot destroy? This would be along the same lines as the question, "What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?".


God can create things that ONLY GOD can destroy
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes all true, the earth's spin could actually reverse because of the iron core reversal, very unlikely...


Source on spin reversal? I think you are mistaken.
Quoting SPLbeater:


God can create things that ONLY GOD can destroy
Why did God create the Universe anyway.?
out of the last 38 comments i see 13.. good afternoon WU
:/
Quoting JupiterKen:


Source on spin reversal? I think you are mistaken.


Okay so when the poles flip, the nort becomes south and vica verca and it is caused by reversal of the core, i believe i heard that when the iron core switches it would reverse rotation idk i could be wrong
Quoting hydrus:
Why did God create the Universe anyway.?


great mystery to me haha
Quoting weatherh98:



Hey pat i just checked it forour areas i didnt see that lemme go check...


..a quick threat of severe, then cooler temps thru Xmas.

Excellent.
Quoting Minnemike:
out of the last 38 comments i see 13.. good afternoon WU
:/


im missing alot of posts because of blocked users, lol. evenin Mike
Quoting Patrap:


..a quick threat of severe, then cooler temps thru Xmas.

Excellent.
\

thrilling!! cool xmas
Quoting weatherh98:


ahhh but he kinda did, when satan revolted, he couldnt destroyor kill the demons and devil because they were immortal, he just put them in hell


he can easily destroy the demons. and he will one day. its all part of a plan for us.
Quoting Minnemike:
out of the last 38 comments i see 13.. good afternoon WU
:/
Howdy Mike..Have you had any of the frigid cold yet?
Quoting SPLbeater:


he can easily destroy the demons. and he will one day. its all part of a plan for us.


#ilikethat
Quoting Patrap:


Looking more like Spring Pat as opposed to Late December.
Quoting weatherh98:


Okay so when the poles flip, the nort becomes south and vica verca and it is caused by reversal of the core, i believe i heard that when the iron core switches it would reverse rotation idk i could be wrong


That is a reversal of the magnetic poles. This does not reverse Earth's rotation. This is a reversal of magnetic polarity.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is a reversal of the magnetic poles. This does not reverse Earth's rotation. This is a reversal of magnetic polarity.


oh okay
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is a reversal of the magnetic poles. This does not reverse Earth's rotation. This is a reversal of magnetic polarity.
So half way through the polarity reversal, the Earth wont stick to my refrigerator any more?
Quoting hydrus:
So half way through the polarity reversal, the Earth wont stick to my refrigerator any more?


Worse than that. Your refrigerator turns into a heater. LOL

Added

I forgot to mention. Once the reversal has completed, you have to hang the refrigerator magnets upside down. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Worse than that. Your refrigerator turns into a heater. LOL
If that happens, I am taking ALL my beer to the Arctic.
Quoting hydrus:
If that happens, I am taking ALL my beer to the Arctic.


Right behind ya, buddy!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Worse than that. Your refrigerator turns into a heater. LOL

Added

I forgot to mention. Once the reversal has completed, you have to hang the refrigerator magnets upside down. ;-)
so. i,ll just walk on the cielin when i need to readum...no sweat
Hong Kong culls chickens at market, bans trade, as H5N1 found
Posted on December 21, 2011

December 21, 2011 HONG KONG Workers began culling 17,000 chickens at a wholesale poultry market in Hong Kong on Wednesday after a dead chicken there tested positive for the deadly H5N1 avian virus, a government spokesman said. The Hong Kong government also suspended imports of live chickens from mainland China and the trading of live chickens for 21 days in a bid to prevent any spread of the disease, which is normally found in birds but can jump to humans.

The current strain of H5N1 is highly pathogenic, kills most species of birds and up to 60 percent of the people it infects.

More Link
Quoting hydrus:
so. i,ll just walk on the cielin when i need to readum...no sweat


This will be easily done. I am sure it will be a topsy-turvy world by then.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Right behind ya, buddy!
I brew my own, so I am protective of it.
These are for my Tropical Cyclone Reports, click to enlarge. I know that I forgot to add "3" at the bottom for Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene, but that just means that I'll have them completed sometime late next month into February. I should be done with all of them by early March, as the NHC will have all of theirs completed by the end of January.

Quoting hydrus:
I brew my own, so I am protective of it.


I'll bring my own. Just share the cooler.

Do you brew any Lagers?
Dutch Scientist Agrees to Omit Published Details of Highly Contagious Bird Flu Findings

Bio-Terror Fears Keep Bird Flu Research Secret

By MIKAELA CONLEY (@mikaelaconley)
Dec. 21, 2011

The virologist who created a potentially dangerous, mutant strain of the deadly bird flu virus has agreed to omit methodology details from his published reports on the new strain. The decision came after the U.S. government warned Tuesday that published details of the experiment could be used to create a biological warfare weapon.

Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands, said he created the contagious form of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain "easily" by mutating a few genes within the strain. Officials feared the virus could kill millions if it were unleashed.

The study results were to be published in the U.S. journal Science, but in an unprecedented move, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity, an independent committee that advises the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and other federal agencies, recommended against full publication after it determined the risks outweighed the benefit.

More

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Howdy Mike..Have you had any of the frigid cold yet?

it sure felt frigid with some near 0F temps a week or two back, but it's been seasonal to warm since. some delicate snow has been falling over the last hour here in Minneapolis :)

i'm a near life-long resident up here, so it takes sub zero temps and brisk winds to shake me.. but i spent a few years in Olympia, WA.. and with all that pacific moisture in the air it was colder at 35-40F than anything experienced in the midwest!! the cold would get between your innermost layers of clothing and there's no escaping it. in subzero temps, as long as your skin doesn't touch the air and clothing layered, one can be pretty snug in those extreme elements.

besides, in the dry bitter tundra air, it's not even cold to feel the air... it's just painful!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These are for my Tropical Cyclone Reports, click to enlarge. I know that I forgot to add "3" at the bottom for Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene, but that just means that I'll have them completed sometime late next month into February. I should be done with all of them by early March, as the NHC will have all of theirs completed by the end of January.



Geeeeeeeeze! That looks similar to my last eye test chart. I knew it had something on it. I was reasonably sure it contained letters of the alphabet. After that, I was not sure of anything else.
Quoting sunlinepr:

It's called H5N1 and is supposed to be highly deadly. According to an article I read earlier, its locked in a high security vault.

Any one have any models that show how much rain we can expect in SE Texas tonight?
People are using that viral disease on ferrets, or so I heard. =(
Quoting Minnemike:

it sure felt frigid with some near 0F temps a week or two back, but it's been seasonal to warm since. some delicate snow has been falling over the last hour here in Minneapolis :)

i'm a near life-long resident up here, so it takes sub zero temps and brisk winds to shake me.. but i spent a few years in Olympia, WA.. and with all that pacific moisture in the air it was colder at 35-40F than anything experienced in the midwest!! the cold would get between your innermost layers of clothing and there's no escaping it. in subzero temps, as long as your skin doesn't touch the air and clothing layered, one can be pretty snug in those extreme elements.

besides, in the dry bitter tundra air, it's not even cold to feel the air... it's just painful!
The coldest air I have ever felt( besides a walk-in freezer ) was -2 degree,s F. I was in it for a half hour and had to go inside. Not bad for someone who was born in south Florida.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looking more like Spring Pat as opposed to Late December.


Indeed..a similar setup.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Any one have any models that show how much rain we can expect in SE Texas tonight?

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I'll bring my own. Just share the cooler.

Do you brew any Lagers?
Used to, but not at the very cool temps typical of German lagers..My Father savors the dark, me on the other hand prefer red or lighter lagers.
I will gladly send my rain to Texas. Some THUNDERSTORMS, heavy fog and downpours just moved thru South central Ontario, while part of Texas has 12" of snow!! I blame AGW.
Quoting weatherh98:
Just saw this, The earth's orbit is becoming eliptical... actually it hasbeen for 100 thousand years.. This is also contributing to climate change, but hey can't do much about that one can we...


No, the eccentricity is decreasing, making it more circular. This could reduce the amplitude of the 'upcoming ice age'.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will ask one question and leave it at that.

Is God capable of creating something that He cannot destroy? This would be along the same lines as the question, "What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?".
couldn't you guys just arm wrestle or something??

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.Link
Quoting hydrus:
Used to, but not at the very cool temps typical of German lagers..My Father savors the dark, me on the other hand prefer red or lighter lagers.


Will you marry me?!?!
Quoting presslord:


Will you marry me?!?!
don't know if I should report this comment or ask for an invitation?!
Quoting presslord:


Will you marry me?!?!
U just want half of my precious brew. I have went beyond reasonable human endurance to create such superb libation. The answer no, but I will share because I,m a show-off..Hope you are well Press..:)
Quoting JNCali:
couldn't you guys just arm wrestle or something??


As promised. I left it at one question and no further comments on it. I just wanted to invoke thought and not a fight. ;-)
Quoting SPLbeater:

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert cancelled.
_______________________________

I can't wait to see Weather456 post again for this upcoming season.
Quoting SPLbeater:


true Christian faith, puts all faith in the Lord, and nothing in the bible is false. nothng. NOTHING. evolution is what has everybody fooled these days...like GW, 2012, and alot more

These people want us to take urgent action,

Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action

…While we cannot here review the full range of relevant biblical convictions related to care of the creation, we emphasize the following points:

Christians must care about climate change because we love God the Creator and Jesus our Lord, through whom and for whom the creation was made. This is God’s world, and any damage that we do to God’s world is an offense against God Himself (Gen. 1; Ps. 24; Col. 1:16).

Christians must care about climate change because we are called to love our neighbors, to do unto others as we would have them do unto us, and to protect and care for the least of these as though each was Jesus Christ himself (Mt. 22:34-40; Mt. 7:12; Mt. 25:31-46).

Christians, noting the fact that most of the climate change problem is human induced, are reminded that when God made humanity he commissioned us to exercise stewardship over the earth and its creatures. Climate change is the latest evidence of our failure to exercise proper stewardship, and constitutes a critical opportunity for us to do better (Gen. 1:26-28).


Love of God, love of neighbor, and the demands of stewardship are more than enough reason for evangelical Christians to respond to the climate change problem with moral passion and concrete action…

Bishops' Statement - A Call for Climate Justice

We, Catholic Bishops from the south and the north, address the world’s leaders as they prepare for the United Nations Climate Summits in Poznan and Copenhagen that will be decisive for the lives and livelihoods of all humanity.

We are deeply concerned by the disproportionate impact humaninduced climate change is having on poor and vulnerable people living in developing countries. Poor communities in developing countries are subject to the harshest effects of climate change,though they have done least to cause it.

We, and the faithful in our communities, including millions of men,women and children from diverse cultures around the world, stand in profound solidarity with our global sisters and brothers.

It is our moral obligation to take urgent action to tackle climate change and to do so in support of those most affected.


We call on you to achieve a strong, binding and just global climate agreement to ensure the survival and wellbeing of all God’s children…
With Christmas just around the corner, it's going to be T-shirt weather this Christmas here! :O

-1C or ~31F.

For comparison sake, last year it was -21C (~-10F?).


well Fina was fun while she lasted
Has anyone herd about that deadly virus the scientist created in the lab?????.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Has anyone herd about that deadly virus the scientist created in the lab?????.


err no google!!
Quoting yqt1001:
With Christmas just around the corner, it's going to be T-shirt weather this Christmas here! :O

-1C or ~31F.

For comparison sake, last year it was -21C (~-10F?).

Just a comment based on this entry.
I often wonder where people are when they post their comments, some of course move around but their base would tell a lot about their location and even reason for posting the temps. etc.
Sometimes other bloggers even ask where the quoted post originated?
Would it not be easily possible for Admin to include the location of the blogger in the bottom line that says "member since?" Most people would not mind their location being shown I am sure.
Now this is very interesting! This is pretty good low that the GFS developes out in the C Gulf and then moves toward C FL early to mid next week.



Quoting PlazaRed:

Just a comment based on this entry.
I often wonder where people are when they post their comments, some of course move around but their base would tell a lot about their location and even reason for posting the temps. etc.
Sometimes other bloggers even ask where the quoted post originated?
Would it not be easily possible for Admin to include the location of the blogger in the bottom line that says "member since?" Most people would not mind their location being shown I am sure.
That is an excellent idea. Maybe shoot Dr.M an E-Mail or one of the admins.
The track of this low shows up well on the GFS precip output.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Now this is very interesting! This is pretty good low that the GFS developes out in the C Gulf and then moves toward C FL early to mid next week.




Yes, classic Nor'Easter setup.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Just a comment based on this entry.
I often wonder where people are when they post their comments, some of course move around but their base would tell a lot about their location and even reason for posting the temps. etc.
Sometimes other bloggers even ask where the quoted post originated?
Would it not be easily possible for Admin to include the location of the blogger in the bottom line that says "member since?" Most people would not mind their location being shown I am sure.


Not a bad idea. I know I am proudly from the north. :)
Quoting weatherh98:
Details of Lab-Made Bird Flu Won't Be Revealed

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/12/21/details- lab-made-bird-flu-wont-be-revealed/#ixzz1hD63WRvx
I don't understand why would they do it?.If it's such a danger to human life why????.They don't even have no cure for it.I could only imagine what would happen it it got outside the lab.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't understand why would they do it?.If it's such a danger to human life why????.They don't even have no cure for it.I could only imagine what would happen it it got outside the lab.....


Ever seen Resident Evil? Just sayin...
Quoting PlazaRed:

Just a comment based on this entry.
I often wonder where people are when they post their comments, some of course move around but their base would tell a lot about their location and even reason for posting the temps. etc.
Sometimes other bloggers even ask where the quoted post originated?
Would it not be easily possible for Admin to include the location of the blogger in the bottom line that says "member since?" Most people would not mind their location being shown I am sure.


Hmmmm... Could use your screen name and/or avatar.

Just a thought.
Quoting KeysieLife:


Ever seen Resident Evil? Just sayin...
Wasn't thinking resident evil.I was thinking about people just dying.Thousands possibly...
Quoting yqt1001:


Not a bad idea. I know I am proudly from the north. :)
uh... Dallas?
Quoting hydrus:
That is an excellent idea. Maybe shoot Dr.M an E-Mail or one of the admins.

I think if enough of us requested that a location was included on the "Member Since" line then they would do it, I'm sure it can't be a big job to alter the post info. a bit, as it updates the number of posts anyway, reasonably well.
I am normally in the mountains to the south of Seville Spain but for a few months I have been working in Yorkshire UK.
Here its +13/c which is a lot warmer than normal for the time of year. Last December here it was, -10/c, being the coldest December for about 150 years. Strangely enough in the Seville area last winter, it was very warm and the the first occasion in my 20 years there that I have noticed that the house flies did not die off all through the winter.
Quoting JNCali:
uh... Dallas?


Right interstate corridor at least. :P

Now just follow the highway that I-35 becomes once it's in Duluth..follow that road to where it meets the Trans Canada Highway. I'm in that town that is at that "important junction".
It doesn't look like Canada is going to get any snow at all. Look how the line stops right at our border.

Quoting PlazaRed:

I think if enough of us requested that a location was included on the "Member Since" line then they would do it, I'm sure it can't be a big job to alter the post info. a bit, as it updates the number of posts anyway, reasonably well.
I am normally in the mountains to the south of Seville Spain but for a few months I have been working in Yorkshire UK.
Here its +13/c which is a lot warmer than normal for the time of year. Last December here it was, -10/c, being the coldest December for about 150 years. Strangely enough in the Seville area last winter, it was very warm and the the first occasion in my 20 years there that I have noticed that the house flies did not die off all through the winter.


I don't want anyone to know where I am, Plaza. What, you never heard of ex-wives???
Quoting Grothar:
It doesn't look like Canada is going to get any snow at all. Look how the line stops right at our border.

Western Canada had a snow drought last year too....funny how the snow stops in a straight line very abruptly at the U.S./Canadian border..ha ha..
Biohazard (RE)

oh boy, video games are coming into conversation now. Seems the blog is all over the place today.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want anyone to know where I am, Plaza. What, you never heard of ex-wives???
What? You dont talk to Eve anymore.?
Quoting Grothar:
It doesn't look like Canada is going to get any snow at all. Look how the line stops right at our border.


lol Grothar, you're funny.
Quoting Grothar:
It doesn't look like Canada is going to get any snow at all. Look how the line stops right at our border.



Canada has a snow embargo this year.
Quoting hydrus:
What? You dont talk to Eve anymore.?


I can be a wrathful Grothar.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want anyone to know where I am, Plaza. What, you never heard of ex-wives???


Yeah! What Grothar said! BTW, Grothar. May I use your address as a forwarding address to give to my ex-wives?
I've been tracking this low since yesterday, and I have to say, it looks a lot more threatening than it did earlier today.


(Click to enlarge as usual)
Quoting Grothar:


I can be a wrathful Grothar.


According to Eve, Grothar took the first bite and then passed it to Adam. She had nothing to do with it and got blamed for it.
Scary, scary looking:

Quoting hydrus:
That is an excellent idea. Maybe shoot Dr.M an E-Mail or one of the admins.


Cause you know they care.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA (02U)
11:00 AM EST December 22 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category One (995 hPa) located at 18.5S 156.0E or 770 km east northeast of Mackay and 790 km northeast of Rockhampton has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.1S 155.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 22.7S 156.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 22.7S 158.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with approximately 2 degrees of separation between the low level center and the dense overcast, giving DT of 1.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on Dvorak rules.

Increasing shear began impacting on Tropical Cyclone Fina overnight due to an amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southwesterly direction and should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance indicates that re-intensification and gale force winds are likely during Friday as the system begins to interact with a firm ridge of high pressure situated across the southern Coral Sea.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC.
Geologists wonder if the Northwest is up next for a giant earthquake
Published: Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 9:02 AM
Joe Rojas-Burke, The Oregonian By Joe Rojas-Burke, The

Since the magnitude 9.1 earthquake in Sumatra in 2004, five more giant earthquakes have struck the continents ringing the Pacific Ocean. And some experts speculate that the planet has entered a period of increased seismic activity that could trigger giant earthquakes in vulnerable regions including the Pacific Northwest.

A somewhat reassuring new study suggests otherwise.

University of California researchers examined the timing of earthquakes worldwide from 1900 and found no evidence of a domino effect in which one great earthquake triggers others on distant continents. It could be random chance.

"We don't want people to assume that our conclusion means the ongoing risk is small," says study co-author Peter Shearer, a professor of geophysics at the University of California San Diego. "There is a significant risk of big earthquakes in all subduction zones." It's just that the run of very large earthquakes most likely does nothing to change the risk in distant locations, Shearer says.

But the data is less than convincing to some experts, who think it's possible that short-term risk of a great earthquake has increased in the Northwest.

"There is a possibility that maybe we should be worried about this," says Oregon State University geologist Chris Goldfinger. "I definitely do not dismiss it."

Full Article: Link

Quoting Grothar:


I can be a wrathful Grothar.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Scary, scary looking:




We need some cold in Florida.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Q for you Gro: Rather be DV or EP?
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
Tropical Low 04U
10:00 AM CST December 22 2011
===================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low 04U (1000 hPa) located at 10.0S 132.5E or 130 km north of Croker Island and 320 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 10.1S 132.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 10.9S 132.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 11.3S 131.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

The monsoon trough has remained active with more focused convection along the trough axis. The low level system center location is poor based on latest visible imagery and surface observations. System remains poorly defined in deep convection, with a weak sense of curvature with 0.2 wrap suggesting DT 1.0/1.5. FT based on PT of 1.0.

Upper level trough to west, together with low level easterly burst is expected to produce favorable conditions for development.

Movement of the system has been slow with westerly flow coming across the Equator and easterly flow from the continent finely balanced. Model guidance remains highly variable, with little intra run or intra model consistency, which suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. While some models are capturing the system in the mid to upper level trough and bringing it east, others keep the system slow moving until the mid-level ridge over the continent pushes in and sends the system west.

The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favored at present, though warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Quoting CybrTeddy:




That picture was taken before I found "Wrinkle Release"


Yemen and 3 others Growing Fear at Plight of Stranded Ethiopian Migrants in Yemen as Funds to Assist Them Run Out


Report— International Organization for Migration
Yemen - There is growing concern and fear at IOM over the fate of many thousands of Ethiopian migrants stranded for several months in northern Yemen in desperate conditions as funds run out to assist the most vulnerable among them.

Since November 2010, IOM has been providing critical humanitarian assistance including shelter, health care and return and reintegration assistance to thousands of migrants stranded in Yemen who want to return home, with the Organization so far having provided 6,169 Ethiopian migrants with return and reintegration assistance.

IOM operations to assist more migrants would have run out but for some emergency stop-gap funding from Saudia Arabia and Japan which will allow the Organization to help a group to return home to Ethiopia soon.

IOM is urgently appealing to donors to fund an appeal of USD 2.6 million. The funds would allow it to assist 6,000 Ethiopian migrants, many of them unaccompanied minors and women in a highly vulnerable situation from a horrific ordeal that shows no sign of ending without humanitarian intervention.

Nearly 18,300 Ethiopian migrants have been registered in the northern town of Haradh on the border with Saudia Arabia in the past 12 months, many of them migrants returned from Saudia Arabia due to their irregular status.

In addition, 2011 has seen a dramatic increase in the number of Ethiopians arriving in Yemen from the Horn of Africa – up from 34,422 in 2010 to more than 65,000 so far this year. It is likely that about 100,000 Ethiopians and Somalis will have crossed the sea into Yemen by the end of 2011, with many having been driven by the drought and famine that struck the Horn of Africa this year.

In Haradh, the vast majority of the migrants are living in open, unprotected spaces in the urban centre without access to food, water, sanitation, shelter or means to earn money. The long period of instability in Yemen which has had a great impact on the population at large, has further marginalized destitute migrants, made further vulnerable by allegations that they are being recruited by opposing factions to fight.

An IOM departure centre for migrants in Haradh with a maximum capacity of 150 is now hosting 350 migrants, the majority of them unaccompanied minors and medical cases.

Having left their poverty-stricken lives in Ethiopia in search of employment in the Gulf and beyond, Ethiopian migrants embark on a life-threatening journey across the Horn of Africa, through the Gulf of Aden and through conflict-ridden Yemen by using smuggling networks.

Those lucky enough to survive this long, dangerous journey either find themselves stranded at the Saudi border unable to progress further or returned from the Gulf country after having been detained there as irregular migrants and are invariably assaulted by smugglers and traffickers. Women and unaccompanied minors are the most vulnerable as they are often kidnapped, exploited and assaulted by smugglers.

Their exhausting ordeal and that of all the migrants in general means many migrants are suffering from illnesses including diarrheal diseases, malaria, respiratory tract infections, snake bites from sleeping in the open, or are suffering from broken limbs, gunshot wounds and other signs of mistreatment from human traffickers and smugglers. A clinic run by IOM in conjunction with the Yemeni Red Crescent is currently overflowing with severe medical cases with IOM and partners including the Charitable Society for Social Welfare (CSSW) carrying out about 2,300 medical consultations each month.

At least 30 migrants in Haradh have known to have died in the past month, though that figure is likely to be higher as there is no clear data available on the deaths that occur at the border and other areas.

"The situation is dire to the extreme. We need to be able to provide assistance on a much larger scale and to get those migrants who want to return to Ethiopia back to the safety of their homes and families now. We cannot stress enough the urgency of this appeal to donors," says Nicoletta Giordano, IOM Chief of Mission in Yemen.

IOM staff in Yemen say at least 1,000 migrants have been ready to travel immediately for some time and at least another 3,000 keep gathering in front of the IOM centre in Haradh for help, but that the lack of funds has left the Organization hamstrung in the face of such suffering.

Operations to help most of the 1,000 travel-ready migrants return to Ethiopia are due to resume in the coming days. Among the 275 migrants about to leave Haradh are 19 unaccompanied minors as well as eight migrants being given IOM medical escort following the physical torture they endured at the hands of human smugglers.

A further 550 migrants will Haradh in the next couple of weeks after which evacuation funds run out.

It will mean that without a speedy response to IOM's appeal of USD 2.6 million, many thousands of migrants will be left at a great and unacceptable danger.

For further information, please contact:

Brian Wittbold IOM Yemen Tel: + 967 736708812 E-mail: bwittbold@iom.int
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We need some cold in Florida.


Can it? Will it? We shall see. Personally I hope it stays mild - not quite this warm but I can do without the long term "cold" by FL standards.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We need some cold in Florida.


Probably won't see it for a long time,

Might only have 1 day of freezing this winter.

That's just my prediction.

Citrus growers rejoice.
Quoting nymore:
Less snow due to heat island effect and GW or more snow caused by more moisture in the atmosphere from GW. I thought there was no heat island effect on surface temps. So more snow GW, less snow GW. You can't lose the debate when you take both sides of the argument. I also did not know Gander was the snowiest place in Canada, I bet those wimps in British Columbia would disagree as would I. Gander snowiest place in Canada may be the stupidest thing I hear all day.


There is a heat island effect and no one has claimed anything different. However, urban heat islands have only a minuscule impact on the overall temperature record (which uses thousands of sampling sites, plus radar data). Even removing all "heat island" measurements from the record didn't result in any statistically significant differences.

The temps have been rather mild and the precip that has been falling has been rain, according to the article. If the temps were colder, then they'd have snow. But thanks to the current weather patterns, any snow that has fallen IN THE CITIES has been melted due to a combination of mild temps and the heat island effect.
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Okay Xyrus2000


I only have one alias on here, but thanks for trying.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been tracking this low since yesterday, and I have to say, it looks a lot more threatening than it did earlier today.


(Click to enlarge as usual)


It appears that this singular kona low will produce a ridge out west.
Quoting Grothar:


That picture was taken before I found "Wrinkle Release"


When you ruled a galaxy a long time ago and far, far away.
Quoting weatherh98:


Okay so when the poles flip, the nort becomes south and vica verca and it is caused by reversal of the core, i believe i heard that when the iron core switches it would reverse rotation idk i could be wrong


Core reversals are a result of changes in the flow of the Earth's outer core. This doesn't affect the Earth's rotational direction.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Core reversals are a result of changes in the flow of the Earth's outer core. This doesn't affect the Earth's rotational direction.
no...'core reversals' are when Scotti throws the Enterprise into reverse
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER FINA (02U)
12:00 PM EST December 22 2011
===================================

At 11:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fina (998 hPa) located at 18.9S 155.8E or has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM in southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.4S 155.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 22.9S 156.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 22.8S 158.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with greater than 2 degrees of separation between the low level center and the existing dense overcast, giving DT of 1.0. MT and PT agree. FT 2.0 based on Dvorak rules with CI of 2.5.

Increasing shear began impacting on this system overnight due to an amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is expected to continue impacting on the system as it moves in a south-southwesterly direction and should limit any further development.

The 22:35Z Ascat image confirms the system has lost most of its structure, with near gales persisting in the southeast quadrant only. Recent VIS satellite images show some convection developing on the southeast quadrant, but given CIMSS shear values between 20 and 30 knots, this is considered a product of baroclinic or extra-tropical development.

Computer model guidance indicates that re-intensification into an extra-tropical low with associated gale force winds is likely during Friday as the system begins to interact with a firm ridge of high pressure situated across the southern Coral Sea.

No further tropical cyclone bulletins will issued for this system unless re-generation occurs.
Boy is it filling in







138 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THAT WILL LIKELY BE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND SHORT-LIVED...PARTICULARLY IN STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED FROM THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

PERSISTENT RAINS MAY RESULT IN GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD LIKELY FALL IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ASHORE BY MID- MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT WILL END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS LEADING INTO THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PREPARE NOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.



Orleans
Dense Fog Advisory
Statement as of 9:23 PM CST on December 21, 2011




... Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 6 am CST Thursday...

* event... areas of dense fog will reduce visibilities below one
quarter of a mile at times.

* Timing..dense fog has already developed in coastal Mississippi
and coastal Louisiana. The dense fog should spread into the
Metro New Orleans area by midnight. This dense fog will persist
through the early morning hours.

* Impact... visibilities less than one-quarter mile... at times near
zero near bodies of water and on over-water crossings.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving... slow down...
use your headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
1:34 PM WST December 22 2011
=========================

A low is developing near 9S 92E, outside of the Western Region. This low is likely to enter the Western Region during Friday or Saturday and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday or Sunday, to the west of Cocos Island. The system is likely to move southwest out of the Western Region during Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate

Tornado touches down...
Posted:
Dec 20, 2011 6:07 PM CST


Updated:
Dec 20, 2011 6:40 PM CST



By Patrick Vaughn - bio | email
 Tornado Warning in the red box on Pinpoint Doppler Radar
Tornado Warning in the red box on Pinpoint Doppler Radar 



A line of strong thunderstorms this morning became severe over northern Calcasieu Parish in Southwestern Louisiana. 
Tornadic
damage was reported at the DeQuincy Memorial Hospital.  The west wing's
roof was torn off and blown into the parking lot damaging three cars. 
Also, downed trees and power lines were reported from a National Weather
Service survey team. 
The path length of the weak tornado was about ¾ of a mile. The F1 tornado had wind of 86-110mph.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
Tropical Low 04U
4:00 PM CST December 22 2011
===================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (999 hPa) located at 10.2S 132.0E or 125 km north northwest of Croker Island and 275 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S/6 HRS

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 10.5S 131.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 11.0S 131.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 11.6S 130.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

The low level system center location is poor, based on latest visible imagery and surface observations. Any convection that is developing near the center is advecting away from the system, indicating there is no mid level circulation associated with the system. Model analyses suggest that a shear line extends over the system at both 700 and 500 hPa, rather than a discrete circulation

Given the lack of deep convection near the center the intensity analysis is held at the bare minimum.

Surface pressures continue to drop by about 2 hPa per day, and upper level diffluent flow is evident as a mid and upper level trough passes to the south. Guidance does suggest that eventually the circulation will extend in depth over the next 24 to 48 hours, however the system is still likely to be 36 to 60 hours away from reaching TC intensity.

Two models have suggested in recent runs that capture in the monsoon flow to the north and a resultant track to the SE remain possible, however the consensus from the remaining models is that the system will steer to the WSW or SW for a period as the mid level ridge briefly builds in the wake of the mobile trough. This is the preferred solution.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
344. sotv
Quoting sunlinepr:
Geologists wonder if the Northwest is up next for a giant earthquake
Published: Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 9:02 AM
Joe Rojas-Burke, The Oregonian By Joe Rojas-Burke, The

Since the magnitude 9.1 earthquake in Sumatra in 2004, five more giant earthquakes have struck the continents ringing the Pacific Ocean. And some experts speculate that the planet has entered a period of increased seismic activity that could trigger giant earthquakes in vulnerable regions including the Pacific Northwest.

A somewhat reassuring new study suggests otherwise.

University of California researchers examined the timing of earthquakes worldwide from 1900 and found no evidence of a domino effect in which one great earthquake triggers others on distant continents. It could be random chance.

"We don't want people to assume that our conclusion means the ongoing risk is small," says study co-author Peter Shearer, a professor of geophysics at the University of California San Diego. "There is a significant risk of big earthquakes in all subduction zones." It's just that the run of very large earthquakes most likely does nothing to change the risk in distant locations, Shearer says.

But the data is less than convincing to some experts, who think it's possible that short-term risk of a great earthquake has increased in the Northwest.

"There is a possibility that maybe we should be worried about this," says Oregon State University geologist Chris Goldfinger. "I definitely do not dismiss it."

Full Article: Link



Slightly off topic of your posting, but geologists are saying along one fault line in Turkey it is inevitable that a 7.6 or larger earthquake will hit Istanbul in the next 30 years.

Since 1939 there have been seven earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7 points, all on the Anatolian fault and all marching westward from eastern Turkey in a linear progression to the gates of Istanbul....
aweeeeeeesome, we're about to get it pretty bad here in west baton rouge
Quoting SaintPatrick:
aweeeeeeesome, we're about to get it pretty bad here in west baton rouge



"First there's ooh-ing and aah-ing then there's running and screaming."

(Or something like that) - From "Jurassic Park."
Gonna be an active day severe wx wise across the Deep South.

Post 350. I've never seen the US 80 to 90 percent void of snow on Christmas.
What a rainy day!!!
A solid 1.25" to 1.50" all across SE TX. Great news for them lately but the dry wx is about to settle in and it could be around for atleast the next month across TX so hopefully the rain of late has helped as their is none in the forecast over the next several weeks.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
Tropical Low 04U
10:00 PM CST December 22 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (999 hPa) located at 10.3S 130.7E or 230 km west northwest of Croker Island and 235 km north of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S/12 HRS

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop during Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=====================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 10.5S 130.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 11.1S 130.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 11.6S 129.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has redeveloped in the vicinity of a candidate low level center. However mid level cloud features continue to stream past in the NW monsoon flow, indicative of a shear line persisting in the mid levels. For this candidate LLC to develop further the mid shear line needs to evolve into a more vertically aligned circulation structure.

Surface pressures continue to drop by about 2 hPa per day, and upper level diffluent flow is evident [though weaker than at the time of the previous advice] as a mid and upper level trough passes to the south.

Given the lack of continuous deep convection near the center the intensity analysis is held at the bare minimum.

Guidance does suggest that eventually the circulation will extend in depth over the next 24 to 48 hours, however the system is still likely to be 36 to 60 hours away from reaching TC intensity, at the earliest.

The has been an increase in the number of models promoting a track to the SE in the 0000z cohort of forecasts. However the candidate LLC center is further west than those initialized in these runs. Given the lack of any consistency between models, and between successive model runs, a conservative approach continues to be followed in forecast policy. The possibility remains that the verifying solution will be different again to that which is suggested by the current model scenarios.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Anyone have an opinion on the possibility of a Nor'Easter?
Quoting weatherrx2012:
Anyone have an opinion on the possibility of a Nor'Easter?


Not anytime soon. The models were hinting at that possibility a few days ago but that has since went by the wayside. May have to wait until January.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not anytime soon. The models were hinting at that possibility a few days ago but that has since went by the wayside. May have to wait until January.


Man I wish it would snow here in the midwest. It's ridiculous to how warm its been. We've had countless days into the mid 40's throughout December, even a few 50+. The more impressive feat is that the ground still isn't even close to being frozen. The over night lows have had a hard time getting below freezing.

When is the snow coming for the midwest? Long range forcast is calling for even warmer weather throughout the midwest for the next two weeks. What indicators will signal a pattern change here?
May 2012 give you peace for the soul, kindness for the heart, health for the body, and money for freedom. Still like this site.
Tornado Watch 898 remains in effect until 100 PM CST for the
following locations


La
. Louisiana parishes included are

Acadia Ascension Assumption
East Baton Rouge East Feliciana Iberia
Iberville Jefferson Lafayette
Lafourche Livingston Orleans
Pointe Coupee St. Charles St. Helena
St. James St. John the baptistst. Landry
St. Martin St. Mary St. Tammany
Tangipahoa Terrebonne Vermilion
Washington West Baton Rouge West Feliciana


College of DuPage Meteorology

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes.
Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 858 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 857 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 849 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 828 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 738 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 735 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 604 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
A solid 1.25" to 1.50" all across SE TX. Great news for them lately but the dry wx is about to settle in and it could be around for atleast the next month across TX so hopefully the rain of late has helped as their is none in the forecast over the next several weeks.

Not so sure about that? More rain expected Friday night thru Saturday for South Central Texas and El Paso may get a snow storm? All I know is I received 8 inches from Jan to Oct. 8th and 10 inches since then. Great Christmas present.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We need some cold in Florida.
how cold
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not so sure about that? More rain expected Friday night thru Saturday for South Central Texas and El Paso may get a snow storm? All I know is I received 8 inches from Jan to Oct. 8th and 10 inches since then. Great Christmas present.


Any rain you get later this week will be very light and spotty then nothing from then on out.

Not only is it very warm today as highs may get into the mid 80's here in C FL. It is also very humid as dewpoints are surging into the mid to upper 60's.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Man The more impressive feat is that the ground still isn't even close to being frozen. The over night lows have had a hard time getting below freezing.

Springfield paper has 4" soil temp still at 45, was 50 earlier this month. I had heard an early season forecast out of StL saying Dec. was supposed to be the cold month. If that's the case, don't think the ground will ever freeze. Busch Braggin' Rights tonight, go Illini!


looks like a warm up at the end of run
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not so sure about that? More rain expected Friday night thru Saturday for South Central Texas and El Paso may get a snow storm? All I know is I received 8 inches from Jan to Oct. 8th and 10 inches since then. Great Christmas present.


Yea, forecast of more rain this weekend and into next week
Quoting dabirds:


They say in these La nina events for us that December are often quite warm, and then in mid January you will see a flip to winter.

Illini will have their hands full tonight! I wish our bench could score a few pts. a game. lol
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, forecast of more rain this weekend and into next week


Yea, but the next event looks lighter and then after that it looks dry for quite awhile. Skyepony pointed this out several days ago.

Expect Texans to have a chip on their shoulder tonight after last weeks upset, gonna be some frustrations taken out on the field tonight.

\"/
Morning all. [except Aussie, to whom I bid good even.... lol] Another great day here in Nassau, Bahamas. Yesterday we had some rain, but otherwise it was another beautiful winter day. I hope this weather lasts through Christmas - crisp, cool, breezy, but above all, clear and sunny. Since there seems to be a relatively strong high hanging about in the area, my hopes are high.

I've got quite a bit to do today, so I may only pop in and out.... but I hope everyone is enjoying their ante-nativity week as much as I am....

L8r...

347
WFUS54 KLIX 221610
TORLIX
LAC057-089-109-221645-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0169.111222T1610Z-111222T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOUMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1010 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOCKPORT...RACELAND...MATHEWS AND DES ALLEMANDS


New Orleans

NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how cold
Wer ya been Keep...Time for you to kick on those fans up there and send some of that Canadian air to Floridy...
Quoting hydrus:
Wer ya been Keep...Time for you to kick on those fans up there and send some of that Canadian air to Floridy...


Be careful, Hydrus. Last year KOG forgot that he had the fans on. We did not warm up until late April and only then because one of the fans threw a blade! LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Be careful, Hydrus. Last year KOG forgot that he had the fans on. We did not warm up until late April and only then because one of the fans threw a blade! LOL
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)
708
WWUS54 KMOB 221657
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1057 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

MSC041-221715-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0148.000000T0000Z-111222T1715Z/
GREENE MS-
1057 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY...

AT 1056 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JONATHAN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CLARK...OLD AVERA...KNOBTOWN AND KITTRELL
Quoting hydrus:
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)


True. Very true. Just make sure KOG keeps the fans pointed towards Florida. Texas caught a cold last year. Houston had snow, ice and sleet and it wasn't from defrosting the freezer either. shudder
Good Morning.

Real warm sector airmass along the Gulf Coast this morning from LA to Florida Panhandle per Tally NWS update as the front is coming through so it might get rocky for the Folks in AL and Florida Panhandle later today after the front pushes through Lousianna.

Time to keep and eye on the weather today and stay tuned to your local news and NOAA weather radios in these parts. Pretty amazing to to see these "El Nino" driven temps push into the mid-70's a few days before Christmas. Stay Safe.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2011

.UPDATE...A warm and moist airmass continues to overspread the area today. A warm front is analyzed across central Alabama with deep south to southwest flow in place across the forecast area. Dewpoints over southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning. With a shortwave enhancing deep-layer lift, decent low-level shear, and marginal instability, there is a slight risk for isolated severe storms this afternoon
across the western half of the forecast area. The primary threat appears to be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, with a target time range of 18-00Z. Latest radar imagery does indicate scattered
convection breaking out in the warm sector across south Alabama, and this activity will spread east through the afternoon.
Strong rotation North of Leakesville. It's heading for State Line and Millry, Al.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


I wish our bench could score a few pts. a game. lol


Sure haven't lately. Did great at the Gonzaga game my daughter took me to for my bday, nothing since, but it was finals time, so maybe tonite.

I suspect we may get that mid Jan freeze, but looked at StL 10 day and nothing below 27 in morning, all highs 40 or above, staying a muddy mess with those temps.

Looking in the mirror misty?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


True. Very true. Just make sure KOG keeps the fans pointed towards Florida. Texas caught a cold last year. Houston had snow, ice and sleet and it wasn't from defrosting the freezer either. shudder
The weather here in Middle TN is lousy. Cold, rainy and windy..I am ready for a little taste of home Rook.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Concerning next year's hurricane season:

Weather Services International (WSI) has issued their extended-range prediction for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for near average numbers. In their report:

* 12 named storms are expected, of which 7 will intensify into hurricanes, and 3 will become major hurricanes.

* A cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not observed in the past decade and the weakening of La Nina will keep the hurricane season relatively tame.

* The probability of a USA landfall is near normal.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast is slightly reduced.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast is slightly elevated.

Link
This actually sounds fairly logical. I think we'll get closer to 15 than 12 named storms, but otherwise the reasoning here makes sense to me.
Quoting hydrus:
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)


I agree, I live in Florida and I hate when its like this in the winter. I like living here overall, but I miss the pattern that brought us very cold air consistently the past 2 winters. Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach. It isn't paradise here, live here for 15 years and you'll figure out why LOL.


Like I said though, I'm not a "grass is greener on the other side" person. I'm glad I live in Florida, I just get Sick of warm weather that sometimes.

Contrary to popular belief, Florida's beaches are not great year round either. The best time to go is April into early June. Then late September int the first half of October. After October the water is too cold till April. After early June it gets disgusting hot and sticky and the water gets grossly hot itself come July into early September. Florida beaches in summertime are gross.

Like I said though, I'd rather still live here than most places in the U.S.
81 here NW of Orlando already with a dewpoint of 66. We could hit a record high here in Orlando today.

Looks like Tuesday & Wednesday are going to be stormy here across FL with some areas in C FL getting potentially 2" plus.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We need some cold in Florida.
But not, I repeat NOT, until after 30 Dec....

Happy New Year cold front, PDoug.... lol

Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree, I live in Florida and I hate when its like this in the winter. I like living here overall, but I miss the pattern that brought us very cold air consistently the past 2 winters. Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach. It isn't paradise here, live here for 15 years and you'll figure out why LOL.


Like I said though, I'm not a "grass is greener on the other side" person. I'm glad I live in Florida, I just get Sick of warm weather that sometimes.

Contrary to popular belief, Florida's beaches are not great year round either. The best time to go is April into early June. Then late September int the first half of October. After October the water is too cold till April. After early June it gets disgusting hot and sticky and the water gets grossly hot itself come July into early September. Florida beaches in summertime are gross.
The worst time I had there( and I have spent over 40 years in South Florida ) was after the hurricanes..Complete utter destruction of the neighborhoods and wildlife areas that I cared about. No power for 17 days, people next door almost died and lost just about everything. practically destroyed both our houses, and our livelihoods wiped out completely. .I love Florida, always have, excluding a few areas, it is overpopulated and will never be the place I knew when I was growing up...I could go on, but I believe you get the picture.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899...

VALID 221722Z - 221815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 899 CONTINUES.

TORNADO RISK WILL LOCALLY BE MAXIMIZED AS/IF STORMS MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD FROM SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL INTO SWRN AL.
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WILL POSE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADO/S.

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PLACES AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SERN MS INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL. TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL OFFSET A MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
PROFILE AS STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KMOB VAD
SHOWS 350 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH WITHIN A STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILE. GIVEN MODESTLY IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
COINCIDENT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...EXPECTING A LOCALIZED HIGHER
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO /PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/ WITH ANY
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL
LINE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN AL.
It's all a matter of tradeoffs in terms of weather issues. Having lived in Florida all of my life (first in South Florida and now in North Florida) the majority of the former Northerners who moved here almost always say the same thing; they got tired of shovelling snow and moved to Florida and prefer the heat (with AC) over the bitter cold. Likewise, lots of Floridians like to try to get North during the summers to get away from the oppresive heat and humidity.

Not all of us have the money to travel for extended periods or own multiple homes so we can "chase" pleasant weather fron Florida in the Winter to the Carolina Mountains, or, further North in the Summer.

I plan to do just that if I ever hit the Lotto; otherwise, I am stuck here in one place......... :)
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC129-221800-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0149.000000T0000Z-111222T1800Z/
WASHINGTON AL-
1148 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...


AT 1147 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BIGBEE...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF CHATOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRANKVILLE AND SILVER CROSS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
Tornado Warnings with these cells SW of Birmingham.

Very similar places hit by the April 27 Tuscaloosa tornado, but if there were to be a tornado in Tuscaloosa, it would be very weak.

90
WWUS54 KBMX 221757
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC063-065-125-221830-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0169.000000T0000Z-111222T1830Z/
GREENE AL-HALE AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
1157 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUSCALOOSA...NORTHERN HALE
AND EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1157 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNDVILLE...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHPORT...TUSCALOOSA...HOLT...MCFARLAND MALL...BRYANT DENNY
STADIUM...UNIVERSITY MALL
...COALING...LAKE WILDWOOD...DEERLICK
CREEK CAMPGROUNDS AND BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 45 THROUGH 97...
It's 79 °F right now...In southeastern North Carolina...on the first day of winter.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like a warm up at the end of run
Thanks for the animated map Keeper. I like it for a quick glance.
OK, I stole this link from 1911maker but, too good to pass up!

Link
Quoting presslord:

no...'core reversals' are when Scotti throws the Enterprise into reverse
But only if it is the will of Chuck Norris
Quoting Jedkins01:
Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach.

I'd add another group: people who spent years--or even decades--up north of the snow line, and have vowed to never again let that chill soak into their bones. I've lived in Montana, Minnesota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Ohio (among others), so I'll be perfectly happy never seeing snow again.
Welll..... quite interesting here; another early afternoon shower.



We don't usually get this type of afternoon shower in the winter... more likely to see overnight showers with diurnal cooling to the dewpoint...



I'm supposed to be taking down hurricane battens today.... the last of the lot which my dad has procrastinated about for a couple of months... now he wants to wait until it dries up a bit. Guess that gives me about 15 minutes.

LOL
This



is interesting on a personal level, but I think this



is going to be more newsworthy over the next 24 - 48...

[Showing only the tail end over the GOM, btw]
Hi gang. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah or whatever holiday you celebrate. It has been real quiet on this blog so I have been lurking. Stay safe everyone.
Back atcha, kwg... I'm sure u r not hoping 4 cold wx down in the Keys...

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any rain you get later this week will be very light and spotty then nothing from then on out.


Shup ST2K!  Lol. ;-)
Quoting kwgirl:
Hi gang. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah or whatever holiday you celebrate. It has been real quiet on this blog so I have been lurking. Stay safe everyone.
Happy and safe Holidays to you too K.W.Girl,..
Some Gooooood rains overnight and this morning over large area of TX today
Quoting hydrus:
The worst time I had there( and I have spent over 40 years in South Florida ) was after the hurricanes..Complete utter destruction of the neighborhoods and wildlife areas that I cared about. No power for 17 days, people next door almost died and lost just about everything. practically destroyed both our houses, and our livelihoods wiped out completely. .I love Florida, always have, excluding a few areas, it is overpopulated and will never be the place I knew when I was growing up...I could go on, but I believe you get the picture.


Yeah I do get what your saying. By the way, do to the absence of hurricanes over the last several years, the amount of people moving to Florida has gone way back up. I hate that, because I'm not trying to be critical, but most people who move here are far from environmentally friendly. In fact it seems many people that move to Florida ignorantly joke about their wastefulness. Sadly they "I don't give a crap" is the common attitude of many people that come here. I am certainly not saying that's always the case by any means. It just seems we Florida attracts a lot of people that aren't good for the state, and/or people you don't want as your neighbor either, LOL.

Like I said, that's not always the case of course, I can't label millions of people, I'm just saying it seems to be an unfortunate pattern.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Some Gooooood rains overnight and this morning over large area of TX today


How much rain did you receive? I see must areas got around 1.50".
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I do get what your saying. By the way, do to the absence of hurricanes over the last several years, the amount of people moving to Florida has gone way back up. I hate that, because I'm not trying to be critical, but most people who move here are far from environmentally friendly. In fact it seems many people that move to Florida ignorantly joke about their wastefulness. Sadly they "I don't give a crap" is the common attitude of many people that come here. I am certainly not saying that's always the case by any means. It just seems we Florida attracts a lot of people that aren't good for the state, and/or people you don't want as your neighbor either, LOL.

Like I said, that's not always the case of course, I can't label millions of people, I'm just saying it seems to be an unfortunate pattern.
Are you still going to college for Meteorology?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


How much rain did you receive? I see must areas got around 1.50".


Will check later this afternoon, was raining when I left for work, looks to be around 1.5 to 2 inches
Quoting NavarreMark:
Its raining cats and dogs in Navarre.
Really? Crap! I have a 2:00 t-time at Hidden Creek
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd add another group: people who spent years--or even decades--up north of the snow line, and have vowed to never again let that chill soak into their bones. I've lived in Montana, Minnesota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Ohio (among others), so I'll be perfectly happy never seeing snow again.


Well I did say generally speaking, I have met people here who moved away from the cold and never, ever want to go back. I just know that the majority of people Ive met are long term Floridians like my family that once lived in cold and are glad to live in Florida, but we often get sick of continuous warmth that can go through the winter some years. I myself would never want to live in the north where its bitterly cold. But I wish a nice frequent chill, (highs in the 50's and 60's) would be more common and more reliable. I don't want endless cloudy days and 20's and 30's for highs every day and sometimes much colder than that, like you get in Michigan where my family came from. Ive been there when its very cold, windy, and constantly cloudy, it was interesting, but its certainly not something I'd want to live in lol.

I'm still happy to live here. Plus here in Tampa Bay our winters our consistently quite a bit cooler than yours our in Naples :) especially in terms of high temps and consistency. This is one of the warmest Decembers living here though. The last 2 winters were how I wish it always was here in the winter.
Heavy rains wreak havoc in Tanzania leaving 4 dead
Posted on December 22, 2011
December 22, 2011 - TANZANIA - At least four people were killed in flash floods that hit many parts of Dar es Salaam Tuesday, with the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) issuing an alert over more heavy rains in coastal areas. The Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner (RC), Mr. Said Mecky Sadick, confirmed the four deaths after chairing an impromptu regional Peace and Security Council meeting. Widespread destruction of property and infrastructure was evident in some streets and thousands of people were left homeless when their houses were swept away. TMA said the rains were caused by the building of pressure over the Indian Ocean, which created heavy clouds along the coastline. The situation might persist for at least two days. The downpour started at around 3am (East Africa time) with thunder and strong winds and led to a power blackout in many parts of the city. The downpour started at around 3am (East Africa time) with thunder and strong winds and led to a power blackout in many parts of the city. Traffic jams were common Tuesday morning, with many roads either flooded or partly damaged. The RC said at least four people were confirmed dead, including an infant whose body was found at Kwa Mtogole at Tandale. He named the other three as Ms Dhati Mseti, who was struck by lightning, Mr. Mgasa Saidi and Mr Abraham Lusama. Some witnesses reported seeing dead bodies floating in some streams. –Africa Review

Quoting hydrus:
Are you still going to college for Meteorology?


Indeed, when I discussed it on here at first I was just getting started, I'm about 51 credits in now, I completed calculus 2 this fall, a very intense course so its nice to have that mile stone behind me lol. I'm ready for the spring term! The next big class of the Spring semester I'm taking will be Calculus 3, it looks more interesting than 2 though, because it has a lot more physics and real science application.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
125 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC007-021-117-221945-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0171.000000T0000Z-111222T1945Z/
BIBB AL-CHILTON AL-SHELBY AL-
125 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY...NORTH
CENTRAL CHILTON AND EAST CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 122 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILTON...OR NEAR MONTEVALLO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALERA...COLUMBIANA...AMERICAN VILLAGE...SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT...
SAGINAW...CAMP BRANCH AND SHELBY.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 228 THROUGH 238...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3293 8688 3298 8696 3308 8698 3334 8670
3315 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 230DEG 38KT 3309 8681

$$

27
The first images from space were taken on the sub-orbital V-2 rocket flight launched by the U.S. on October 24, 1946.

The first television image of Earth from space transmitted by the TIROS-1 weather satellite in 1960.
The Nighttime Lights of the World data set is compiled from the October 1994 - March 1995 nighttime data collected when moonlight was low. Using the Operational Linescan System (OLS) thermal infrared band, areas containing clouds were removed and the remaining area used in the time series. This image is actually a composite of hundreds of pictures acquired by three of the four DMSP satellites, which operate in low-altitude polar orbits and have the unique capability to detect low levels of visible-near infrared (VNIR) radiance at night.