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Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2013

"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.


Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in Greenland
Watching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.


Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level rise
In a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)


Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?
Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Related posts
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Dr. Jason Box's blog on Greenland and the Dark Snow Project is at http://www.meltfactor.org.

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website looks like a great resource for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Dark Snow Project Expedition Plan 2013
Prepare and gather science equipment including a field spectrometer, snow and ice coring device, and snow metrics kit.

Travel to Iqualuit, on Baffin Island, Nunavut from home locales in California, Ohio, Michigan, Vermont and rendezvous with Dash-6 "Twin Otter" ski-equipped airplane and flight crew.

Organize cold weather survival kit.

Ferry team from Iqualuit to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.

Fly to and land at sampling sites high on the inland ice sheet.

At each site collect snow samples from a snow pit and obtain snow cores to a minimum depth of the previous year's snow surface, and record snow properties.

Transport of team and snow samples to Greenland's capital Nuuk, where the team will rest after hustling at field sites.

Return to Iqualuit, then to respective home locales to start the data analysis and reporting phase of campaign.

Jeff Masters

Glaciers Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

MDR holding steady around +0.5C.

Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. Leave it to me to point out that one part in an otherwise very well-thought and intelligent post.

:-)

I'm going to hell. I'll save you a seat, TAwx13.

Nah.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
MDR holding steady around +0.5C.



This is the 7 day change in temp. There has been quite a bit of cooling along the equatorial Pacific while the MDR/Eastern Atlantic still can't decide what they want to do.

1005. ncstorm
Frank Strait Fan Club
Tornado warning for Henry & Newton Co, GA, radar indicated rotation ... stay alert for later on downstream in S Walton, Morgan Co. #gawx
Quoting MississippiWx:


This is the 7 day change in temp. There has been quite a bit of cooling along the equatorial Pacific while the MDR/Eastern Atlantic still can't decide what they want to do.



And the PDO has warmed.
1007. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
People come to this forum for many reasons, one of which is to learn. If a small but very vocal minority is allowed to run off at the mouth, spouting one bit of denialist gibberish after another while no one responds to correct their nonsense, this forum would quickly degenerate into the chaotic mess it has been at times in the past.

Now, it's clear that some don't give two hoots about climate change, so they'd actually be okay with denialist nonsense ruling the forum. So allow me to expand on a hypothetical BobChecks wrote of in #966...

Suppose every time you posted one of your very helpful "tropical tidbits" that someone felt the need to tell you that, contrary to what you said, northern hemisphere tropical cyclones do not spin counter-clockwise, but in fact spin clockwise. And suppose this person didn't just say you were wrong about that fact, but that you were a socialist and a liar for saying it. And suppose you and some other bright people took the time to patiently explain to that person that they were both mistaken--after all, there's ample concrete proof that big NH storm systems spin CCW--and out of line. And suppose that person responded by gathering a bunch of his or her equally nonsensical friends to pile on and tell you that they don't believe you or anyone else who "believes" in CCW storms, and that all the world's tropical meteorologists were in on a huge fraud, and that they could point you to websites that have secret evidence that systems spin CW that the government doesn't want you to see, because they want to take all your money or your car or your house or something. And suppose you, with less patience this time, respond to the person that he's a troublemaker and a troll, and is undeniably wrong.

Now suppose that someone responds to your irate outburst by claiming that you're "engaging in negative verbal battles that drag your tidbits into the mud day after day". Should you listen to them, and simply shut up, allowing the obvious trolls to run rampant, diluting your message? Or do you fight the good fight and keep doing your best to be sure your CCW truth is heard the above the din of the CW dimwits?

So long as there remain fake skeptics denying scientific truth, there'll be the need to counter their nonsense.So you are of the opinion that Dr. Masters--and Dr. Rood--need non-stop denialist blather "...to validate their existence here"?

Please explain that one when you get a chance...


I'd probably post a WV loop of a CCW storm and be done with it.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The mods. are doing their job by protecting opposing points of view.

Nothing in science is without question. Nothing ...


True. I happen to think Big Bang theory is completely wrong and have posted an alternative explanation on many science websites. I haven't been called a 'troll' because my alternative explanation is so darned good. But I have been regularly attacked by the believers.

On the subject of CO2 induced global warming, the main argument against it used to be that outgoing infrared radiation at the wavelengths intercepted by CO2 was already 'saturated', meaning that additional CO2 wouldn't have any effect.

Scientists claim that this argument has been rebutted, but I'm not in a position to know for sure whether it has, or not.

Ignoring the arguments which claim the Earth hasn't warmed, other proposals for the warming are increased solar activity and changes to the oceanic gyre which transports warm surface water down to the depths.

You can't absolutely rule out such arguments - there does seem to be some long term correlation with solar activity and warmer temperatures (although not recently), but physicists say solar activity can't explain it. However, physicists have been wrong before.

The balance of probabilities seems to me to strongly suggest greenhouse gases as the cause, but we can't be 100% certain about that.
1009. bappit
Quoting no1der:
just dated myself :-) Ripple was a bum-wine from a few decades ago. Empty bottle of Thunderbird in a paper bag would be the current version.


Thunderbird is timeless.
Quoting Xulonn:
Re: Post 943 by Jedkins01...

OMG, ..........And I am fascinated by the very high level of analytical skills among the weather prognosticators here, and baffled by the inability of many of them to apply the same objective skills to their understanding of AGW/CC. If they were as inaccurate with their storm predictions, they would probably be laughed off the blog. It seems that they apply science and analysis to weather, and beliefs and emotions to AGW/CC, jumping on almost every disproven and false anti-AGW/CC denialist claptrap as if it were real science!


Xulonn,


I agree wholeheartedly with what you have just clearly stated. However, what amazes me about the "deniers of AGW/CC" is that the weather patterns they currenty understand so well are being changed rapidly by Arctic Amplification, as a result of the warming of the Arctic. They understand what a blocking pattern does to tropical systems, however refuse to understand why these blocking patterns are becoming more frequent over Greenland. While they prove their worth in prognosticating the paths and intensities of hurricanes, they rather rudely imply that Dr. Masters and Dr. Rood are fools for buying into the "Warmist Agenda."
Quoting ncstorm:
To correlate that GW and an approaching hurricane can be used in the same context about having to debunk someone is far fetched..If someone is on here and an approaching Cat 4 is heading for a populated city and that blogger informs the blog that the NHC says its going in another direction which is untrue, of course that person would need to be addressed and corrected as that is an immediate life and death situation, GW/Climate change from what I understood last night has decades before its plight on humanity is realized..


We are seeing an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events.

We are seeing permafrost melting which is destroying roads and buildings.

Plight on humanity is realized.
1013. Levi32
981.

Nea, nothing you can say will convince anybody here that this blog is currently a positive environment the majority of the time. It isn't. Every day it's a moss pit. It's getting old and ridiculous. Something's gotta change.

There are some who disagree with AGW in such a stupid way on this blog that it is obvious they have no interest in discussing science and want to tow a political line (some advocates of AGW do the same). I believe such people should be at least temporarily banned from this blog with a warning for trying to start pointless arguments with no facts involved.

Something's gotta give guys. This is ridiculous.
I guess it's La Nina's turn to fake us out:

Currently Anomalies:



Nino 3.4: -0.26C



Nino 1+2: -1.1C



Nino 3: -0.41C



Nino 4: -0.4C

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WEST CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK HILL...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.
reflectivity is 12 - 20" per hour indicating instead large (golfball sized) hail maybe.
If there's any boon about the climate argument on this forum,

reading it definitely enriches your vocabulary.
Quoting beell:


I'd probably post a WV loop of a CCW storm and be done with it.


And then a CCW-denier would likely claim that the government intentionally flipped that footage to hide the fact that storms rotate in the opposite direction....

Quoting BobChecks:


And then a CCW-denier would likely claim that the government intentionally flipped that footage to hide the fact that storms rotate in the opposite direction....


If it comes to that, is it even worth arguing?
Quoting Civicane49:


I am looking at the PDO that has warmed a little bit.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am looking at the PDO that has warmed a little bit.


It has recently.
Regarding the flooding rainfall in Houston yesterday, HGX tweeted this out earlier today.

NWSHouston %u200F@NWSHouston 9h
Houston Hobby Airport had 6.05" of rain yesterday. Oddly, this did not break the record rainfall which is 6.20" set in 1972. #houwx #txwx

And here is the area-wide precipitation accumulation map from yesterday's event. I ended up with a whopping .10" of rain. :P

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am looking at the PDO that has warmed a little bit.


It has warmed some, but the overall signature is still there. Instead of the high being in the Central Pacific, it is located right off the NW Coast which keeps the SST anomalies along the West Coast from being as cold.
Quoting Levi32:
981.

Nea, nothing you can say will convince anybody here that this blog is currently a positive environment the majority of the time. It isn't. Every day it's a moss pit. It's getting old and ridiculous. Something's gotta change.

There are some who disagree with AGW in such a stupid way on this blog that it is obvious they have no interest in discussing science and want to tow a political line (some advocates of AGW do the same). I believe such people should be at least temporarily banned from this blog with a warning for trying to start pointless arguments with no facts involved.

Something's gotta give guys. This is ridiculous.


Absolutely agree. Thanks Levi.

I want to be able to learn about weather and climate on this blog. My reason for coming here was not a love of watching big storms, I intentionally no longer live where those things hit.

I came here hoping to learn more about weather and how our changing climate is going to modify our weather patterns.

Are we likely to have fewer tornadoes? Will the season/zone change?

What about hurricanes? Fewer, stronger, tracking more off the east coast of the US as the ocean continues to warm?

I'd love to see this site get past the "It was really cold in ... last night and algore is fat" stuff and on to what is happening and the science of why it is happening. A mix of the weather and the physics behind the weather.
GOM




1027. beell
So you are of the opinion that Dr. Masters--and Dr. Rood--need non-stop denialist blather "...to validate their existence here"?

Please explain that one when you get a chance...


Nothing but respect for those gentlemen, Neap. That should be enough explaination.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

If it comes to that, is it even worth arguing?


It depends on how reliable you want the information on this site to be.

1029. LargoFl
1030. LargoFl
1031. LargoFl
1032. Gearsts
Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?
1034. Gearsts
What's keeping the atlantic for warming more?
Quoting beell:


I'd probably post a WV loop of a CCW storm and be done with it.
Right. And the CW kooks would tell you that you'd reversed the image because you're a socialist. Or that the image was from the Southern Hemisphere. Or that the image didn't matter because a blog they regularly read said otherwise. Or how it was only a single loop and could easily be just a fluke. Or how the loop should be discounted because why should we believe anything that comes out of a government satellite. Or how...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

If it comes to that, is it even worth arguing?
Not arguing, but discrediting and disproving in a systematic, scientific fashion. For not doing so leaves the forum looking as though it supports such inanity--and then the whole thing is worthless.
Quoting BobChecks:


It depends on how reliable you want the information on this site to be.


I can see the point you are making, but trying to correct someone who is not willing to be corrected is not necessarily the best plan of action in my opinion. At least out here on Jeff Master's blog (I can't speak for Ricky Rood's blog for I rarely venture over there), ignoring those who refuse to learn via accepted scientific method may be a better method to foster an active and productive dialog between users. Trying to reach out to the completely closed minded is about as effective as teaching a rock to play a viola concerto and too often leads to incoherent shouting matches.

Now with this being said, I do not mean that we shouldn't try to share our knowledge and opinions with those around us, for this is one of the things that makes the world such a great place. However, upon the occurrence of closed minds and circular arguments, some things are best left alone. If executed properly, I don't think that any offenders would enjoy rambling to themselves for very long.
33 days from the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
1038. Gearsts
My town has a shield!
Quoting yonzabam:


And then you'd be moaning about renewable energy firms being subsidised by the taxpayer.




They are being subsidised by the taxpayer now and some are going bankrupt.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
33 days from the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.


And 108 days from the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane, August 14. I woudn't get too excited, just yet. Likely you'll have a long wait.
1041. ncstorm
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

VALID 12Z WED MAY 01 2013 - 12Z SUN MAY 05 2013

...GENERAL OVERVIEW...

AN ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST OVER THE LOWER 48. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATION. BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL GET SANDWICHED
BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER BOTH COASTS OF THE
COUNTRY. WITH NOWHERE TO GO...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THERE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES
MID/LATE THIS WEEK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
FLORIDA...BUT ANY SORT OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURE
SEEMS LIKE A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not arguing, but discrediting and disproving in a systematic, scientific fashion. For not doing so leaves the forum looking as though it supports such inanity--and then the whole thing is worthless.

I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...
Extreme Weather in USA on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 08:27 (08:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Storms dumped rains and hail on the Greater Houston area in the U.S. state of Texas on Saturday, flooding streets and causing power outage, local media reported. Flood Control District officials reported as much as six inches (15 centimeters) of rainfall in some parts of Harris County, where the city of Houston is located, in three hours, according to newspaper the Houston Chronicle. There were also reports of golf ball-sized hail in parts of the Houston metro area. Drivers were stranded by floodwater in many areas of south and southwest Houston. Local firefighters responded to at least 50 calls for water rescue Saturday, the Houston Chronicle quoted Houston Fire Department spokesman Jay Evans as reporting. Several roads were closed due to flooding in parts of west and southwest Harris County and Fort Bent County. Electricity provider CenterPoint Energy said that 44,927 customers were without power as of 7:00 a.m. The storms were also blamed for a roof collapse that destroyed a store in the city of Sugar Land. The roof collapse is a result of water collecting on the roof during Saturday's storm, according to media reports. The owners said they were inside and heard the roof start to collapse, but no one was hurt.
Flash Flood in Somalia on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:01 (02:01 PM) UTC.
Description
Jowhar (RBC) Torrential rains battered more than twenty hours Jowhar town, Somalia's Middle Shabeelle region causing fresh floods into residential villages. The rains which started early on Friday continued until Saturday when the residents of Badda Cas village in Jowhar begun to flee from their homes. The regional administration based in Jowhar called for sudden intervention to the floods as hundreds of homes were damaged caused by rain-induced floods. More than 200 families, among them elderly women and children, are estimated to be displaced by the recent rains, the administration said. The deluge caused by the seasonal rains in the region came as already flooded Shabeelle river water resumed to break its banks again.
Extreme Weather in USA on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:03 (02:03 PM) UTC.
Description
Several parts of Middle Tennessee experienced flash flooding and road closures as heavy rain moved through the area. Forecasters said a low pressure system will cross the area Saturday night and Sunday as moisture moves in from the South. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which will produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding, expected to move across the region. A flash flood watch remained in effect through Sunday morning for parts of Middle Tennessee. Some of the storms were expected to produce very heavy downpours with some areas seeing several inches of rainfall causing flash flooding, especially along small streams. Stewart County EMA Director Clint Mathis said they had people clinging to trees, a house fire, and other weather-related problems across the county, especially in Carlisle and Indian Mound. Officials with the Montgomery County EMS said they also had widespread flooding, "just about anywhere that's a low lying area." Specific problem areas included Trenton Road, Wilma Rudolph, Lylewood Road and Madison Street. Officials in LaVergne opened city hall as a shelter for anyone who has been forced out of their homes. Mt. Juliet police said they were not able to close or barricade roads quickly enough and said flooded roads could be hidden. Residents were advised to stay off the roads. Additional officers were called in to help. Sergeant Tyler Chandler said Saturday night was prom in Mt. Juliet. They were concerned some students may be out on the roads in dangerous conditions and asked kids to stay put.
Flash Flood in Malaysia on Sunday, 28 April, 2013 at 14:05 (02:05 PM) UTC.
Description
More than 200 houses were damaged after a freak storm ripped through Kampung Segambut Bahagia, Segambut here today. Barisan Nasional candidate for Segambut Jayanthi Devi Balaguru who was making campaign rounds rushed to the scene following a resident's call. She said about 25 families were affected in Segambut Bahagia. The 5.30pm incident is said to be the first of its kind in the last 20 years. However, no one was injured in the incident. Jayanthi said most of the houses were badly damaged, where either roofs were missing or portions of their homes had collapsed. "The rain water which seeped through also damaged most of their furniture and household items. " I totally understand and feel very sorry for them but what is important now is to place them somewhere safe, before a permanent solution is found,” she said, adding before making arrangements for temporary shelter at a Sri Segambut Community Hall. Jayanthi said she had also contacted the City Hall and the Welfare department to assist those affected.

"Don't worry, I understand your situation and will sort out something more permanent, as soon as I can," she assured the residents. "On the whole, we have reports that over 200 houses were damaged by the freak storm. We have detailed out the necessary relief plans for those affected and will try to get them PPR house or something, accordingly” she added. A resident, M. Krishnasamy, 55 said it was the first time a storm as such had caused so much damages at his place. "This is the worst, ever. About 10 years back, we were in a similar situation but the damage was not this bad,” said the father of two, who has been staying there for the last 17 years. Krishnasamy said the roof in the back portion of his house including the kitchen and prayer altar of his house, were ripped off by the strong wind.
1047. beell
Quoting BobChecks:
Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?


Try your scroll wheel.
:)
1048. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...


Thank you. It's nice to know that someone has learned how to use the internet.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I would disagree. Ignoring those who refuse to learn via scientific method would in my opinion lead to a more cohesive and informative blog with a few closed minded ones out on the ragged edges shouting for attention. But alas, perhaps I am too much of an idealist...
If we were speaking of only "a few close minded ones", I think I might tend to agree with you. But, alas, there are more than a few, and close-mindedness is the least of their character flaws. There's willful ignorance, rigid ideological thinking, rabid anti-intellectualism, a deeply-rooted mistrust of science and scientists, poor facility with English, limited depth or dimensionality of thought, and so on, and so forth.

That's quite a basketful, if you ask me. And allowing those thus afflicted to have free reign of the room never really seems to accomplish much... ;-)
Quoting Levi32:


Thank you. It's nice to know that someone has learned how to use the internet.


Conspiracy theorists have learned how to use it, but that's not nice to know.
Quoting Gearsts:


Wow pretty much perfect conditions for storm development
For the ladder part of this week an increase in moisture is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN APR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU MID WEEK WITH SERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE THROUGH
WED AS JET STREAK LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS COULD BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THU AND DEEPENS
FURTHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A TROUGH FCST
TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT
BUT A 850 AND 700 THERE IS STRONG RIDGING WHICH COULD BE AN
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PR IS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJPS BEFORE 29/00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN NORTHEAST SWELLS.
SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS BUT
EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 86 / 10 10 20 20
1053. Thrawst
What is causing all of these severe weather setups to have a cold front that undercuts the warm sector? I don't recall having a setup last year at all which the reason why tornado potential was reduced because the storms were "anafrontal"?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Wow pretty much perfect conditions for storm development

Where? The Atlantic being ruled by extremely high wind shear, stable air, cool sea surface temperatures, and a lack of disturbances right now.
Quoting allahgore:




They are being subsidised by the taxpayer now and some are going bankrupt.


Both of those statements are true. But that does not mean that anything is wrong nor is anything unexpected happening.

One role of government is to assist promising ideas get a chance to prove themselves. It's how we (hopefully) keep ahead and maintain our economic advantages.

We expect some to fail.

We can't compete with other countries on the a basis of cheap labor. We have to compete by bringing better ideas to the market.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where? The Atlantic being ruled by extremely high wind shear, stable air, cool sea surface temperatures, and a lack of disturbances right now.


Ok sorry I was looking at the wrong thing my mistake
So I guess the blog isn't on the bandwagon of a sub-tropical storm anymore?
Quoting Neapolitan:
If we were speaking of only "a few close minded ones", I think I might tend to agree with you. But, alas, there are more than a few, and close-mindedness is the least of their character flaws. There's willful ignorance, rigid ideological thinking, rabid anti-intellectualism, a deeply-rooted mistrust of science and scientists, poor facility with English, limited depth or dimensionality of thought, and so on, and so forth.

That's quite a basketful, if you ask me. And allowing those thus afflicted to have free reign of the room never really seems to accomplish much... ;-)

At the same time, what has confronting said group of people accomplished? Perhaps I'm incorrect when I say this for I only spend a fraction of my time here, but it does not appear that your guns-blazing approach in the name of science has turned the tables whatsoever regarding the mis-informed and closed-minded. If I'm not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who defined insanity as the repetition of the same thing while expecting different results. Almost every time I visit Weather Underground, the same confrontations and arguments rage on and on, and yet the results never change. Perhaps a different ideology for handling the issue will yield better results, but as you mentioned, perhaps not. This is for sure though: you don't know until you give it a try. The status quo cannot carry on indefinitely.
1059. ncstorm
Frank Strait Fan Club
New #tornado warning for Greene Taliaferro Wilkes Counties, GA. Rotation on radar, a more spinners upstream. #gawx
Well I see arguing about who and who doesn't believe in GW is the topic of today.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So I guess the blog isn't on the bandwagon of a sub-tropical storm anymore?

I guess some are my take on it watch and wait
Quoting yonzabam:


Anyone know if there's a correlation between a wet spring in the eastern US and vertical instability in the western Atlantic?

Last two years, there's been dry summers coinciding with below average vertical instability, resulting in many tropical storms failing to intensify. Can't help thinking the two things are connected.


YB, I've heard locals here in SW Florida talking about past wet springs leading into active hurricane seasons. Whether one has anything to do with the other I can't say for sure yet, but I sure hated the Crown Weather forecast someone posted a day or two ago showing SW FL with a 90-95% chance of a hurricane this year....

On the plus side, this is my 4th spring here since moving to Florida, and it's been just plain awesome to for once have some real rainfall here in April - the month that's typically our driest. I'm hoping for an early start and long length to our rainy season. The last 2 rainy seasons in particular were, for us, inconsistent and relatively short-lived, and I can't help but think that the persistent warm, stable air aloft that covered much of the tropical Atlantic had something to do with it.

Thanks for asking some great questions; I hope they will generate some discussion!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

At the same time, what has confronting said group of people accomplished? Perhaps I'm incorrect when I say this for I only spend a fraction of my time here, but it does not appear that your guns-blazing approach in the name of science has turned the tables whatsoever regarding the mis-informed and closed-minded. If I'm not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who defined insanity as the repetition of the same thing while expecting different results. Almost every time I visit Weather Underground, the same confrontations and arguments rage on and on, and yet the results never change. Perhaps a different ideology for handling the issue will yield better results, but as you mentioned, perhaps not. This is for sure though: you don't know until you give it a try. The status quo cannot carry on indefinitely.


Do you have any potential solutions?

So far what I've seen is to 1) ignore them or 2) ban them. Are their other options?
looks like a mini lake erie cyclone

weird radar sign. big spin

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like a mini lake erie cyclone

weird radar sign. big spin


I've been watching that thing for a couple hours now.
Image taken before 3:30pm EDT.
GAC133-265-317-282130-
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-130428T2130Z/
WILKES GA-TALIAFERRO GA-GREENE GA-
500 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL GREENE...NORTHERN TALIAFERRO AND WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TYRONE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
Quoting BobChecks:


Do you have any potential solutions?

So far what I've seen is to 1) ignore them or 2) ban them. Are their other options?

Not sure if there are, but the two don't have to be mutually exclusive. In my opinion, once it becomes apparent that any appeals to science or logic are disregarded, ignoring that user would be the proper course of action. Typically, people don't have much to say once they realize that there is no one listening. If however, the user in question goes above and beyond to cause trouble (think Joe B's global cooling twitter rants), then I would have no problems with the moderators stepping in and placing a ban on that person for a duration that they see fit.

With that being said, I would be open to alternate solutions if so brought up.
some simple solutions that everyone can do

1071. LargoFl
1072. LargoFl
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 30m
Scattered showers and a few storms will develop along the sea breeze through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. #flwx
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like a mini lake erie cyclone

weird radar sign. big spin


Neat-o, what a cool little feature! I hadn't noticed that one yet. Pretty sizeable MCV located within a pretty saturated airmass and a divergent region of the upper jet.





1074. Levi32
Quoting yonzabam:


Anyone know if there's a correlation between a wet spring in the eastern US and vertical instability in the western Atlantic?

Last two years, there's been dry summers coinciding with below average vertical instability, resulting in many tropical storms failing to intensify. Can't help thinking the two things are connected.


Well, if you take all of the hyperactive hurricane seasons (ACE > 165, total 12 seasons), then you get this for the May precipitation anomaly, which is wet in the southeast US:

Quoting Levi32:


Well, if you take all of the hyperactive hurricane seasons (ACE > 165, total 12 seasons), then you get this for the precipitation anomaly, which is wet in the southeast US:

It has been wet in the south east U.S this year..Hmmmmm
Quoting BobChecks:
Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?


No, you are not correct. Some people would rather discuss the tropics and actual weather instead of the same old song and dance.

Some of us get it. The globe is warming. What are you guys who discuss it incessantly every day on this blog actually doing in the real world to make a difference? Nea does a good job with his website and his maps/graphs make a lot of sense. Other than that, what are the rest of you doing?
Quoting yonzabam:


Because ignoring them allows them to carry out their propagandist agenda. They should be confronted and exposed.

Sometimes, being even handed isn't a virtue.



How about just put 'em up against a wall?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Neat-o, what a cool little feature! I hadn't noticed that one yet. Pretty sizeable MCV located within a pretty saturated airmass and a divergent region of the upper jet.






I had to make it my profile pic just because I like the way it looks.
There was a smaller one in south central Michigan today as well.
look at the contrast

Quoting Levi32:


Well, if you take all of the hyperactive hurricane seasons (ACE > 165, total 12 seasons), then you get this for the May precipitation anomaly, which is wet in the southeast US:



Thanks. Correlation is not causation, and it looks like only Florida/Georgia was well above normal. But it's interesting, nevertheless.

You must have some memory to be able to access obscure information like that.
1082. Levi32
Quoting yonzabam:


Thanks. Correlation is not causation, and it looks like only Florida was well above normal. But it's interesting, nevertheless.

You must have some memory to be able to access obscure information like that.


I have weird things memorized like the list of top ACE seasons and all years that had 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls. It helps me look up patterns quickly.
1083. LargoFl
sea breeze showers headed inland.............
1084. docrod
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



How about just put 'em up against a wall?


..as in Douglas Adams? ;>)

1085. LargoFl
nice line of showers south of tampa,headed inland.....
1086. LargoFl
south Tampa might get some of this as it heads inland....

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TALIAFERRO...NORTH CENTRAL WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RAYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
1088. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TALIAFERRO...NORTH CENTRAL WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RAYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
gee i cannot imagine..Baseball sized hail..its like rocks raining down on ya huh.......stay safe up there.
1090. Levi32
The Indian monsoon circulation will begin to stir soon. The CFS says it will be stronger than normal in mid-late May. There is research that suggests that the health of the Indian monsoon and African easterly waves are related.

1091. LargoFl
not a drop here,line formed by the Bay headed eastward
Quoting LargoFl:
south Tampa might get some of this as it heads inland....


That's actually a sea breeze boundary not wind :)

Sea breezes, and other boundaries show up on radar when they are well defined. Moisture and instability are lacking over the state today along with some capping, so rainfall will be hard to come by, anything that does develop will be short lived and isolated.
Quoting MississippiWx:


No, you are not correct. Some people would rather discuss the tropics and actual weather instead of the same old song and dance.

Some of us get it. The globe is warming. What are you guys who discuss it incessantly every day on this blog actually doing in the real world to make a difference? Nea does a good job with his website and his maps/graphs make a lot of sense. Other than that, what are the rest of you doing?


Personally, I've reduced my carbon footprint and purchase carbon offsets for what I can't reasonably avoid.

I try to learn what I can about how we can cut our carbon fuel use and pass that information on to others.

I try to educate myself about how the climate is now changing and pass that information on to others.

I write my elected officials and ask them to work through the legislative process to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

I donate to and vote for candidates who are likely to work on curtailing climate change.
1094. ncstorm
Frank Strait Fan Club
#Tornado warning for McDuffie, Lincoln Co GA. Large hail likely. Watch closely in Edgefield/McCormick SC #gawx #scwx
1095. LargoFl
1096. LargoFl
1097. LargoFl
Hopefully my area will get some rain tomorrow...........
Quoting OrchidGrower:


YB, I've heard locals here in SW Florida talking about past wet springs leading into active hurricane seasons. Whether one has anything to do with the other I can't say for sure yet, but I sure hated the Crown Weather forecast someone posted a day or two ago showing SW FL with a 90-95% chance of a hurricane this year....

On the plus side, this is my 4th spring here since moving to Florida, and it's been just plain awesome to for once have some real rainfall here in April - the month that's typically our driest. I'm hoping for an early start and long length to our rainy season. The last 2 rainy seasons in particular were, for us, inconsistent and relatively short-lived, and I can't help but think that the persistent warm, stable air aloft that covered much of the tropical Atlantic had something to do with it.

Thanks for asking some great questions; I hope they will generate some discussion!


I assure you that inconsistent rainy season observation of yours is quite local. Looking at the records yes, unfortunately parts of SW was rather lacking compared to average. However most of Florida actually saw a very soggy rainy season with at or above normal rainfall in most other spots in the state. In fact, the water management in Central Florida last year mentioned that ground water finally returned to normal last fall in nearly 10 years due to widespread heavy rains of a whopping 40 to 50 inches just during the rainy season period with many rain gauges actually a bit above normal during the period.

State wide though, outside of the rainy season has been wretched dry the last few years or so. This can be thanked to mostly La Nina dominated or Neutral leaning La Nina dominated over the past few years.
1099. LargoFl
oh boy...
1100. LargoFl
looks like a sure bet for rain Tuesday huh......
Quoting Levi32:


Thank you. It's nice to know that someone has learned how to use the internet.


That's a common concern for me regarding most people.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I assure you that inconsistent rainy season observation of yours is quite local. Looking at the records yes, unfortunately parts of SW was rather lacking compared to average. However most of Florida actually saw a very soggy rainy season with at or above normal rainfall in most other spots in the state. In fact, the water management in Central Florida last year mentioned that ground water finally returned to normal last fall in nearly 10 years due to widespread heavy rains of 40 to 50 inches just during the rainy season period with many rain gauges actually a bit above normal during the period.

State wide though, outside of the rainy season has been wretched dry the last few years or so. This can be thanked to mostly La Nina dominated or Neutral leaning La Nina dominated over the past few years.


Last years rainy season was defiantly above average, at least for my area. Loved it - 2010 and 2011 were completely pathetic. Some reason El Nino, or warm-neutral years, seem to have better rainy seasons in my area (2006, 2009, and 2012).
Miami is a death trap waiting to happen.All that expensive real estate..those high rises and mansions not to mention the percentage of people who may not know English and have no where to go.It may not happen this year or the next few years from now but when it does it could be horrific.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Miami is a death trap waiting to happen.All that expensive real estate..those high rises and mansions not to mention the percentage of people who may not know English and have no where to go.It may not happen this year or the next few years from now but when it does it could be horrific.


Miami doesn't have any Spanish language news outlets.

Who'd a thunk it?
Quoting BobChecks:


Miami doesn't have any Spanish language news outlets.

Who'd a thunk it?
I'm not sure.I was watching a special on T.V about the real estate boom in south Florida and especially around the Miami area.They should have a Spanish news outlet considering that's one of the leading minorities living down there.If they don't in case of a emergency that is foolish on their part.
1105. LargoFl
Another unbelievable article.

How much soot was put out by forest and prairie fires in North America before settlement by Europeans?

I doubt if any of these esteemed people mentioned in this article will provide any satellite data from before 1492.

These people are looking at a sliver of data that they should be looking at...data, that doesn't exist

It is amusing though.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

At the same time, what has confronting said group of people accomplished? Perhaps I'm incorrect when I say this for I only spend a fraction of my time here, but it does not appear that your guns-blazing approach in the name of science has turned the tables whatsoever regarding the mis-informed and closed-minded. If I'm not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who defined insanity as the repetition of the same thing while expecting different results. Almost every time I visit Weather Underground, the same confrontations and arguments rage on and on, and yet the results never change. Perhaps a different ideology for handling the issue will yield better results, but as you mentioned, perhaps not. This is for sure though: you don't know until you give it a try. The status quo cannot carry on indefinitely.
You know, it was also Einstein who said, "Not all that things that seem insane really are". ;-)

Now, because you "only spend a fraction of your time here", I'll repeat what I've said perhaps a hundred times: few of us are here to try to sway those who lack the intellectual honesty to accept established scientific fact. We're simply not. If someone wants to go through life encased in a sphere of ignorance and self-delusion, we can only pity them and wish them the best. Wasting any further resources trying to attempt them is obviously pointless. But we will do what we have to do to ensure that the seeds of ignorance they're so desperately intent on sowing find no purchase. We know that such weed-pulling might upset some of the forum's concern trolls, but, well, that's how we work.

So now I gotta ask: how did you amass more than 10,000 comments while spending "only a fraction of your time" here? ;-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's a common concern for me regarding most people.

Last years rainy season was defiantly above average, at least for my area. Loved it - 2010 and 2011 were completely pathetic. Some reason El Nino, or warm-neutral years, seem to have better rainy seasons in my area (2006, 2009, and 2012).


Well El Nino years are known for not just being above average rain in Florida during the dry season, but in general they are known for bringing rainy weather year round so what you noticed makes sense, El Nino effectively means no apparent dry season, just a lot of rain throughout the year.

La Nina on the other hand is know for horrible droughts in Florida during the dry season. Typically there is not supposed to be any link to drier or wetter rainy seasons when it comes to La Nina, they can go either way. La Nina years do typically lead to a lot less yearly rainfall in comparison to El Nino years on average.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You know, it was also Einstein who said, "Not all that things that seem insane really are". ;-)

Now, because you "only spend a fraction of your time here", I'll repeat what I've said perhaps a hundred times: few of us are here to try to sway those who lack the intellectual honesty to accept established scientific fact. We're simply not. If someone wants to go through life encased in a sphere of ignorance and self-delusion, we can only pity them and wish them the best. Wasting any further resources trying to attempt them is obviously pointless. But we will do what we have to do to ensure that the seeds of ignorance they're so desperately intent on sowing find no purchase. We know that such weed-pulling might upset some of the forum's concern trolls, but, well, that's how we work.

So now I gotta ask: how did you amass more than 10,000 comments while spending "only a fraction of your time" here? ;-)
They were here since 2006 and perhaps were only on here during big weather events (tornado out breaks,hurricane season winter storms)
Quoting Neapolitan:
If we were speaking of only "a few close minded ones", I think I might tend to agree with you. But, alas, there are more than a few, and close-mindedness is the least of their character flaws. There's willful ignorance, rigid ideological thinking, rabid anti-intellectualism, a deeply-rooted mistrust of science and scientists, poor facility with English, limited depth or dimensionality of thought, and so on, and so forth.

That's quite a basketful, if you ask me. And allowing those thus afflicted to have free reign of the room never really seems to accomplish much... ;-)


You know, I get frustrated with anti-intellectualism myself, and it is very complex as how people end up that way. Regardless though, I prefer mercy over cutting down others for their intelligence or lack there of, not everyone will embrace science, and whether they do or not shouldn't effect the condition of how we treat them.

Intellectualism also may not be as supreme to human progress as one might think either; if intellectuals forget the value of other things beyond just calculation and the scientific process, it leads to cold achievement of the intensive utilitarianism. We must seek balance in our thoughts and lifestyles.

1111. ncstorm
I dont know why yall continue this discussion with "him"..he obviously thinks a lot of us on here are ignorant and lack intelligence..let it rest and move on..he wont be swayed in his approach..
1033 BobChecks Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?

Nope. There are certain discussions which would be interminable if folks waited for them to end before posting interesting stuff.
Almost forgot today's globe.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not sure.I was watching a special on T.V about the real estate boom in south Florida and especially around the Miami area.They should have a Spanish news outlet considering that's one of the leading minorities living down there.If they don't in case of a emergency that is foolish on their part.


Almost ten Spanish language TV stations in Florida and over 50 AM and FM radio stations.

http://guides.ucf.edu/content.php?pid=44322&sid=3 82126

Greek and Italian, too...
1115. ncstorm
have a good night everyone..talk with you guys tomorrow

18z GFS-Rainfall up to 120 hours..


12z CMC-up to 120 hours
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Almost forgot today's globe.



Look at that long plume of high clouds from the Windwards to West Africa.
1057 washingtonian115: So I guess the blog isn't on the bandwagon of a sub-tropical storm anymore?

I don't think the blog was on that bandwagon: just a few individuals read the prediction charts and saw a strong possibility of an earlyMay storm.
1118. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Almost forgot today's globe.



Don't get funny. I may not be commenting,but I watch everything. Besides, my globe is bigger than yours

Your sarcasticness (I know that is not a word) was not funny.Because in some states they don't have Spanish news outlets where there are not a lot of them.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't get funny. I may not be commenting,but I watch everything. Besides, my globe is bigger than yours


Your globe is ugly.
1121. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's a common concern for me regarding most people.

Last years rainy season was defiantly above average, at least for my area. Loved it - 2010 and 2011 were completely pathetic. Some reason El Nino, or warm-neutral years, seem to have better rainy seasons in my area (2006, 2009, and 2012).


The old tale in southern Florida,was that if it didn't rain in May, there would be a hurricane.
1122. BtnTx
I am tired of the greenie weenie wunderground logo on the top left of the wu web pages. I hope it is not here to stay as I have always liked the rainbow colored rainbow one! I have never looked up into the sky and seen a green rainbow.
1123. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
have a good night everyone..talk with you guys tomorrow

18z GFS-Rainfall up to 120 hours..


12z CMC-up to 120 hours
good night NC
1124. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CALHOUN
COUNTY...WITH MORE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANNISTON...COBB TOWN...FORT MCCLELLAN...JACKSONVILLE...OXFORD...
PIEDMONT...SAKS...WEST END-COBB TOWN...ALEXANDRIA...BLUE MOUNTAIN...
BYNUM...HOBSON CITY...JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY...OXFORD LAKE AND
WEAVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
1125. NRAamy
Question: can you say "greenie weenie" on the main blog and survive to blog another day?

;)
1113 TropicalAnalystwx13: Almost forgot today's globe.

Is that NorthAfrica-to-LesserAntilles train as "too far north of CapeVerdes" weird as my gut tells me?
Or is it just poor memory?
1127. barbamz
Some good news ...
Boost to Colorado Snowpack May Lessen Wildfire Risk
Published: April 28th, 2013

...some bad news
Warmer Seas May Impact Antarctic Clams’ Reproduction
Published: April 28th, 2013

With that a good start to the new week to everyone!
1128. barbamz
And "my" side of the globe in nice green-blue-white colors ...

Source
1129. BtnTx
Quoting NRAamy:
Question: can you say "greenie weenie" on the main blog and survive to blog another day?

;)
LOL maybe not :)
1130. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:
You know, it was also Einstein who said, "Not all that things that seem insane really are". ;-)

Now, because you "only spend a fraction of your time here", I'll repeat what I've said perhaps a hundred times: few of us are here to try to sway those who lack the intellectual honesty to accept established scientific fact. We're simply not. If someone wants to go through life encased in a sphere of ignorance and self-delusion, we can only pity them and wish them the best. Wasting any further resources trying to attempt them is obviously pointless. But we will do what we have to do to ensure that the seeds of ignorance they're so desperately intent on sowing find no purchase. We know that such weed-pulling might upset some of the forum's concern trolls, but, well, that's how we work.

So now I gotta ask: how did you amass more than 10,000 comments while spending "only a fraction of your time" here? ;-)

99/100 is still a fraction you know... ;P

You are correct in noting that I have amassed over ten thousand posts over the nearly seven years that I have been a member of Weather Underground, which would equate to approximately four posts per day over the period of my membership. A good deal of posting for sure, but not obscene, especially with many of the posts occurring during times of active and interesting weather. Meteorology is my passion, after all.

Now, as for the main point, I also have the same desire as you to prevent the spread of ignorance throughout Weather Underground and points beyond, and with little to no concern how the trolls feel about it. However, we clearly have different ideas on how best to proceed with said task, and at this point, it appears that our ideas will remain at odds with each other, which at this point is perfectly fine by me. Diversity makes the world go 'round and the world would certainly be a pretty boring place without differing ideas. In terms of science, there is of course empirically correct and incorrect, but with more abstract concepts such as ideas, there is more grey area since ideas are often much harder to prove. And this appears to be where we find ourselves.

When I first joined Weather Underground, I was a much younger hotshot who thought he knew it all when it comes to meteorology. My time on this website has very much humbled me and taught me so much, arguably more than I have learned in my meteorology-specific college courses. And not just about meteorology/climatology either. Through every exchange, whether on this website or not, I always make it a point to learn something new, and this has served me very well throughout my brief existence thus far. This exchange is no different, and I hope you have continued to learn from this exchange as well. It's been a good one my tri-toned ice cream friend! ;)

Quoting ncstorm:
I dont know why yall continue this discussion with "him"..he obviously thinks a lot of us on here are ignorant and lack intelligence..let it rest and move on..he wont be swayed in his approach..

I doubt that's actually what he thinks, for if he does, he'd be just as ignorant as those he so confronts. Even if he does, it matters not what he thinks of me. Just so long as he keeps seeking the truth, he'll be alright.
1133. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
MURRAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 551 PM EDT WEATHER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF MURRAY COUNTY. SOME ROADS HAVE BEEN
CLOSED.
1135. LargoFl
going to be a very WET drive to work along the east coast tomorrow,.
Okay, this time I'm sure I hit Plus on 1131, and the WUblog-program reacted as if I had hit Minus.
Anybody else run across that?
1137. LargoFl
next weekend we do it all over again gee........
1138. txjac
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, this time I'm sure I hit Plus on 1131, and the WUblog-program reacted as if I had hit Minus.
Anybody else run across that?


Yes, earlier today ...wanted to apologize too
1139. BtnTx
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, this time I'm sure I hit Plus on 1131, and the WUblog-program reacted as if I had hit Minus.
Anybody else run across that?
not just now as I hit plus with no problem on 1131
Six months ago.

I'm sure Dr. Masters will have a blog about the recovery effects across the Northeast since landfall. It's been all over NBC Nightly News, The Weather Channel, and the internet.

This is for 92P.

TPPS10 PGTW 282123
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (SE OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA)
B. 28/2032Z
C. 12.4S
D. 153.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1526Z 12.5S 153.6E MMHS

CASPER




WTPS21 PGTW 282230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 154.3E TO 13.8S 150.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 281732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 153.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S
154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SOME BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. AN 1845Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LLCC, GIVING WAY TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS ADDITIONALLY
BEING AIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292230Z.//
Still in the process of finishing Sandy, but I figure it can't hurt to show off the TCRs I have done. Completely eliminated the best track from all of them since I have run out of time. I will post two a day until I finish. Here is Bud and Carlotta:

Bud

Carlotta
It's been a hazy for me. With the southerly winds in Hawaii, the volcanic haze is expected to stick around the islands until Tuesday.

Invest 92P:



Quoting Civicane49:
Invest 92P:



looks like it spat out a MLC or something...system will develop but the competing circulation is causing a little bit of a problem for it. i give it another 24 hours before we get a depression

and just to be sure, its spinning counterclockwise because its in the southern hemisphere, not because the government flipped the sat image right?

*edit* although i'm a little more convinced at its organization looking at the second image
18Z GFS caribbean!?!?


1147. Levi32
Quoting FutureWx6221:


looks like it spat out a MLC or something...system will develop but the competing circulation is causing a little bit of a problem for it. i give it another 24 hours before we get a depression

and just to be sure, its spinning counterclockwise because its in the southern hemisphere, not because the government flipped the sat image right?

*edit* although i'm a little more convinced at its organization looking at the second image


It's spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere. You're seeing the counterclockwise flow of the upper-level outflow of the storm, which is always opposite in orientation to the low-level circulation of the storm.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't get funny. I may not be commenting,but I watch everything. Besides, my globe is bigger than yours




i saw it 1st
1149. Gearsts
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
18Z GFS caribbean!?!?


Shear convection
You people need to stop playing with your Globes.....
For Levi.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
351 PM AKDT SUN APR 28 2013

...RECORD COLD MORNING IN INTERIOR ALASKA...

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRIP NORTHERN ALASKA. MANY STATIONS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SHATTERED RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF
1 ABOVE ZERO AT EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 16 ABOVE WHICH WAS SET IN 1945.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 2 ABOVE ZERO AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT IS
THE THIRD LOWEST TEMPERATURE THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. THE LAST
TIME IT WAS THIS COLD SO LATE IN THE SEASON WAS ON MAY 9TH 1964
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE AT THE AIRPORT BOTTOMED OUT AT 1 BELOW ZERO.
THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL 28TH IN FAIRBANKS IS 30
ABOVE.

IN ADDITION TO NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...MANY STATIONS TIED OR BROKE RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FAILED TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. THE FAIRBANKS
AIRPORT REACHED 29 ABOVE ON THE 27TH...WHICH TIES THE COLDEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR THAT DAY WHICH WAS SET IN 1935. NORMAL HIGHS IN
LATE APRIL ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THE EXTENDED COLD SPELL THIS MONTH HAS PUT THE BREAKS ON SNOWMELT
AND THE BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IN NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS APRIL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE THIRD COLDEST ON RECORD. THE LAST TIME
FAIRBANKS HAS SEEN AN APRIL THIS COLD WAS BACK IN 1924.

BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF LOW TEMPERATURES REPORTED THIS MORNING. ONLY
LONG TERM STATIONS WITH A SUFFICIENT PERIOD OF RECORD HAVE BEEN
IDENTIFIED IF A RECORD LOW WAS BROKEN.

CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS............9 BELOW
SALCHA RIVER-MILE 25..........9 BELOW
CHENA HOT SPRINGS.............8 BELOW
GOLDSTREAM CR (FAIRBANKS).....6 BELOW
SMITH LAKE (UAF)..............6 BELOW
TOK...........................6 BELOW
EAGLE.........................5 BELOW* (OLD RECORD 2 ABOVE 1927)
LIVENGOOD.....................3 BELOW
DENALI VISITOR CENTER.........2 BELOW
EIELSON AFB...................1 ABOVE* (OLD RECORD 16 ABOVE 1945)
COLLEGE OBSERVATORY...........2 ABOVE* (OLD RECORD 18 ABOVE 1992)
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT.............2 ABOVE* (OLD RECORD 8 ABOVE 1924)
DELTA JUNCTION................3 ABOVE* (OLD RECORD 15 ABOVE 1972)

* INDICATES NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE

$$
1152. Gearsts
Quoting PedleyCA:
You people need to stop playing with your Globes.....
We like globes
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PDT on April 28, 2013
Clear
80 F
Clear
Humidity: 36%
Dew Point: 51 F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.81 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 5.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Yesterdays Airport high 88F, today 86F Was 86F here and is 82.8 currently. Edit: Normal is 78/53

Post 1119.
I was raised in South Florida. Spanish and other language stations are all over S. Florida.
If you are clueless about a topic..........don't comment!
Your only showing your daily ignorance.
Lots of great thoughts on this site.
Your are not.
Quoting Gearsts:
We like globes

We know someone who loves it now he want to destroy it I think his name is Kim Jong something or other so don't love it too much
1158. Dakster
AK is frozen and we are broiling here in south Florida.


Looks like the CMC wants to paint a tropical storm near the FL Coast wednesday afternoon...
Read your post #1104!
Go milk.
1161. ncstorm
came back to post this..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11s

500-mb vorticity animation (19mb GIF) shows cut-off formation & complicated pattern of vortices off E. Coast.

Link
1162. Grothar
good evening, Grasshopper
Weatherbell animation of cut off next week.

Link
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Looks like the CMC wants to paint a tropical storm near the FL Coast wednesday afternoon...


Looks like a weak low with no closed isbobars. Result = nothing tropical.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Looks like the CMC wants to paint a tropical storm near the FL Coast wednesday afternoon...

A 1010 millibar, one-isobar-closed low in the northeastern Gulf is undoubtedly NOT a tropical storm. It's not a tropical depression either.

Almost definitely does not qualify as even something worth watching.
1166. auspiv
Quoting washingtonian115:
#1157 - Oh lord your type again..Go jump off a cliff please.I wasn't raised there so I could really care less the amount of Spanish stations.
"Go jump off a cliff please" - nice. "I could really care less" - you're saying you do care, because there is still a bit of caring to lose before you don't care at all.

When I joined this site, I read everyone's comments and appreciated them equally. Yours slowly started to get more and more negative and hostile and "whiny", for lack of a better word.

Now you're suggesting people commit suicide? My ignore list is currently zero users, but with one more comment like the one quoted above, and you'll be the lucky first resident of Ignoreville.
1167. Levi32
Quoting Dakster:
AK is frozen and we are broiling here in south Florida.



You're right I'm freezing, but Florida looks seasonable?

P.S. Can you spot the snow pack in North Dakota?

Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Looks like the CMC wants to paint a tropical storm near the FL Coast wednesday afternoon...


It looks like some sort of convective feedback on that particular run. Doubtful it will be there tomorrow.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh lord your type again..Go jump off a cliff please.I wasn't raised there so I could really care less the amount of Spanish stations.




that was rude you go jump off the cliff




if you cant learn too say some in nic then dont say any thing at all


all so where are the modes? commets like this sould be re move ASAP or you may nevere here the end of it and a warning sent too the user that made the commet
1170. NRAamy
Taz, you should be made a mod.
Quoting Levi32:


You're right I'm freezing, but Florida looks seasonable?

P.S. Can you spot the snow pack in North Dakota?



Meanwhile things just aint right in Texas.

Drier air has worked into the area in the mid levels of the atmosphere after last night's rains. A few isolated storms have developed with heating. Looks like fewer showers thru Monday as moisture remains limited above the surface. Tuesday an upper low develops near the area so we'll have a few more showers. Best moisture will be east of the low though. Strong cold front arrives Thursday with record low Friday and Saturday morning's.
1172. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


You're right I'm freezing, but Florida looks seasonable?

P.S. Can you spot the snow pack in North Dakota?



It's hot!!!! And I think I only live ab out 20 minutes North of Dakster. It is hot, hot, hot. BTW, if you go to FSU, what city would you be in?
Quoting Tazmanian:




that was rude you go jump off the cliff




if you cant learn too say some in nic then dont say any thing at all


all so where are the modes? commets like this sould be re move ASAP or you may nevere here the end of it and a warning sent too the user that made the commet

Taz, that was counterintuitive. You can't say Wash telling someone to jump off a cliff is rude and a violation of rules and then turn around and do it yourself lol.
Quoting Dakster:
AK is frozen and we are broiling here in south Florida.




It has been glorious here in Tallahassee, low to mid 80's for highs, and 60's for lows with comfortable humidity and nice breezes.

However, I'm getting anxious for the days when daily thunderstorms are reliable, its worth sacrificing comfort in the horrible stickiness for the sake of experiencing big thunderstorms :)
1175. NRAamy
Jed, those big thunderstorms scare the crap outa me.....
This year's Caribbean TCHP in late April is higher than compared to 2012 and 2011. What I found interesting this year is that the area of very high TCHP is focusing in the western Caribbean, while the previous two years featured the high TCHP values concentrated in the central Caribbean. We could see at least one, maybe two major hurricanes, over the Caribbean later this year.

Quoting NRAamy:
Jed, those big thunderstorms scare the crap outa me.....


What are you doing in this blog then? lol jk

They can be quite scary sometimes, but that's part of the fun!

I would not want to live in a place that doesn't get many of them.
Quoting Grothar:


It's hot!!!! And I think I only live ab out 20 minutes North of Dakster. It is hot, hot, hot. BTW, if you go to FSU, what city would you be in?


There's only one possible city to be in if you're a student at FSU, its Tallahassee, unlike the peninsula, there is nothing but rolling hills full of forests with a few country homes mixed in for miles outside of this area.
oh my gosh, we are still going on about this stuff. I left what 12hrs ago and it started, when will it end? Believers will believe and deniers will deny. No amount of rhetoric will make any difference. If a denier constantly posts about AGW/CC being false then they are breaking blog rules about No monomania(Rule 3). And if any newbies come in here and see no one replying to said denier and the posts are then soon enough the newbie will get the hint, if not then they to are also a denier. SIMPLE!!!

Build a bridge and get over it. Believers believe and deniers deny, and they will never agree.
1180. NRAamy
I'm just not used to them....this is my second Summer in SE Florida.....


Higher moisture headed north form the southern gulf into the FL peninsula for tomorrow to replace the drier more stable air.
1182. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


It's hot!!!! And I think I only live ab out 20 minutes North of Dakster. It is hot, hot, hot. BTW, if you go to FSU, what city would you be in?


Tallahassee.

I guess I thought Floridians would be accustomed to seasonable April temperatures. 76F in Miami doesn't seem that hot even to me.
Quoting NRAamy:
I'm just not used to them....this is my second Summer in SE Florida.....


I grew up in South Florida and live in Orlando now. The only thing that scares me anymore is the lighting. Some of the summer sea breeze storms are terrifying.
Quoting NRAamy:
I'm just not used to them....this is my second Summer in SE Florida.....


I thought you lived in Ca?
Quoting NRAamy:
Taz, you should be made a mod.

oh gosh no, there would be know one left if that happened.

Btw, Hi NRAamy, long time no see.
Quoting Civicane49:
This year's Caribbean TCHP in late April is higher than compared to 2012 and 2011. What I found interesting this year is that the area of very high TCHP is focusing in the western Caribbean, while the previous two years featured the high TCHP values concentrated in the central Caribbean. We could see at least one, maybe two major hurricanes, over the Caribbean later this year.



That is scary for sure.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is scary for sure.

Scary if a well-developed tropical cyclone tracks over it while within a favorable atmospheric environment. Otherwise, this year will end up like the past three; a close call, but no rapid intensification into an intense hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean.

Rina is an exception.
This tine of year it's improbable that anything tropical will form near Florida's coast. Give it a few more weeks and then conditions will improve for that sort of thing...imo
We felt finally today that spring is over and the warm weather will begin to settle in.
But as we all know, the water will warm after the air.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Scary if a well-developed tropical cyclone tracks over it while within a favorable atmospheric environment. Otherwise, this year will end up like the past three; a close call, but no rapid intensification into an intense hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean.

Rina is an exception.


Wilma type forming in the Western Caribbean.
Good Afternoon 92P, your coming together nicely.


Loop


Loop



Loop


Loop


Loop


Loop
1192. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Tallahassee.

I guess I thought Floridians would be accustomed to seasonable April temperatures. 76F in Miami doesn't seem that hot even to me.


They lie. Even though Tallahassee is a beautiful city, you will have to travel to South Florida to experience the real tropics.
1193. Levi32
Interesting. The Caribbean has supposedly changed a lot in just one week.

April 20th:



April 27th:



CFSR reanalysis has much lower values than AOML:

Caribbean TCHP loop:

Aussie

is the forecast path of the storm "nice" as well?
I have not checked yet...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Scary if a well-developed tropical cyclone tracks over it while within a favorable atmospheric environment. Otherwise, this year will end up like the past three; a close call, but no rapid intensification into an intense hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean.

Rina is an exception.


I bet you that the caribbean is going to be more unstable than the last year,therefore more favorable for storms intensification

Quoting stormchaser19:


I bet you that the carribean is going to be more inastable than the last year,therefore more favorable for storms intensification



well in April it caught up to the black line from being really low on March...
1199. bappit
"Kiribati: Toani Benson stands on the ruins of the store that sold him petrol for his school's generator in the mid-1990s."



"Phil Glendenning, who was in Kiribati in March, says Australia needs to formally recognise climate change refugees because there's "a big chance" that climate change in the Pacific would force large numbers of people from their homelands.

"Glendenning says Australia should prepare to cater for thousands of climate change refugees over and above the 20,000 refugees it admits from war-torn nations every year.

""These are people who are not suffering from persecution because of their beliefs, race or because they belong to a particular group. So they don't meet the Refugee Convention criteria but, nevertheless, there will be a need for people to be resettled because they have been displaced by climate change," says Glendenning. "This is a new cohort of people who are emerging, the rest of the world needs to pay attention.""
Quoting Grothar:


They lie. Even though Tallahassee is a beautiful city, you will have to travel to South Florida to experience the real tropics.


Actually, the tropics is defined as being between the equator and the north to the Tropic of Cancer(23°N) and to the south the Tropic of Capricorn(23°S). Anywhere till 35°N and to 35°S is classified as Sub-Tropical.

The furthest south on CONUS is Florida Keys is at 24°32'38.38N. of the area marked in red.

Quoting bappit:
"Kiribati: Toani Benson stands on the ruins of the store that sold him petrol for his school's generator in the mid-1990s."



"Phil Glendenning, who was in Kiribati in March, says Australia needs to formally recognise climate change refugees because there's "a big chance" that climate change in the Pacific would force large numbers of people from their homelands.

"Glendenning says Australia should prepare to cater for thousands of climate change refugees over and above the 20,000 refugees it admits from war-torn nations every year.

""These are people who are not suffering from persecution because of their beliefs, race or because they belong to a particular group. So they don't meet the Refugee Convention criteria but, nevertheless, there will be a need for people to be resettled because they have been displaced by climate change," says Glendenning. "This is a new cohort of people who are emerging, the rest of the world needs to pay attention.""


Can you post a link to that article, I will forward it onto the Federal foreign affairs minister and see if I get a response.
Quoting Grothar:


They lie. Even though Tallahassee is a beautiful city, you will have to travel to South Florida to experience the real tropics.


It isn't the tropics here, there is a noticeable difference even between here and Central Florida, even more south the south Florida coast.

It is semi-tropical though, it still definitely feels like Florida, but with a different twist.
Cold front approaching to the Hawaiian Islands:

Quoting Civicane49:
Cold front approaching to the Hawaiian Islands:



Quoting AussieStorm:


Actually, the tropics is defined as being between the equator and the north to the Tropic of Cancer(23°N) and to the south the Tropic of Capricorn(23°S). Anywhere till 35°N and to 35°S is classified as Sub-Tropical.

The furthest south on CONUS is Florida Keys is at 24°32'38.38N. of the area marked in red.

That's the geographical tropics. But the Köppen climate classification defines the tropics as a a non-arid climate in which all twelve months have mean temperatures above 18C (64F). By that standard, parts of South Florida--Collier, Monroe, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties--are indeed tropical.

heat
Quake felt in L.A not long ago.



Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's the geographical tropics. But the Köppen climate classification defines the tropics as a a non-arid climate in which all twelve months have mean temperatures above 18C (64F). By that standard, parts of South Florida--Collier, Monroe, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties--are indeed tropical.

heat


So I am still geographically correct... Thanks
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quake felt in L.A not long ago.



Link


he is right..!

Mag. 2.8


3 km (2 miles) SE (125) from Marina del Rey, CA
5 km (3 miles) NNW (342) from El Segundo, CA
5 km (3 miles) SSW (201) from Culver City, CA
7 km (4 miles) W (274) from Inglewood, CA
19 km (12 miles) WSW (237) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


he is right..!

Mag. 2.8


3 km (2 miles) SE (125*) from Marina del Rey, CA
5 km (3 miles) NNW (342*) from El Segundo, CA
5 km (3 miles) SSW (201*) from Culver City, CA
7 km (4 miles) W (274*) from Inglewood, CA
19 km (12 miles) WSW (237*) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA


Depth was 12km/7.5miles which is surprising it was felt being a fairly small quake. This is how I found out about the quake.

Candace Bailey @CandaceBailey5 13m
Did anyone else in LA just feel that earthquake?
The approaching cold front from the northwest of Hawaii is forecast to stall around Kauai by tomorrow, bringing an increase in showers to that island. Afterwards, the front will fall apart and normal trade wind weather will return by Wednesday.

Btw,,, off topic from the main blog.
Anyone in Seattle here and/or a Seahawks Fan?

Please make welcome my good friend Jesse Williams.
Quoting Levi32:


You're right I'm freezing, but Florida looks seasonable?

P.S. Can you spot the snow pack in North Dakota?



The weather here in Central FL has been pretty pleasant the past few days, the days have not been hot and are downright comfortable in the shade with a nice breeze (and I do NOT like hot weather at all). I am hoping for a wet summer again this year as all the wildlife thrives and it keeps the temperatures down.

To Naga 5000, I agree about lightning, it is the only type of (not extremely rare) weather around here that scares me. I will stand outside in tropical storm force winds (or higher) and get soaked but frequent cloud to ground lightning sends me indoors real quickly.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Can you post a link to that article, I will forward it onto the Federal foreign affairs minister and see if I get a response.


I don't know if tis is the same one that Bappit posted , but here is a link to a story in the Guardian:

Australia urged to formally recognise climate change refugee status
Hope it helps.
1214. bappit
Quoting JohnLonergan:


I don't know if tis is the same one that Bappit posted , but here is a link to a story in the Guardian:

Australia urged to formally recognise climate change refugee status
Hope it helps.

Indeed the same. I got the article from JLonergan's post.

The important point is that this is not happening just to people living on atolls in the Pacific. It is happening globally though living on an atoll would certainly make someone more keenly aware of their circumstances.
Quoting bappit:

Indeed the same. I got the article from JLonergan's post.


Gotta + you for that.
Quoting JohnLonergan:


I don't know if tis is the same one that Bappit posted , but here is a link to a story in the Guardian:

Australia urged to formally recognise climate change refugee status
Hope it helps.

That looks like the one. I have forwarded it to the Australian Foreign Affairs Minister.

I also found this scary video on Youtube showing the fight Kirabati is losing against sea level rise.



From:
Kiribati: A Nation Going Under
1217. bappit
The seriousness of this situation undercuts whatever defense one might give for people making frivolous posts to ridicule the science that explains what is happening.
Quoting bappit:
The seriousness of this situation undercuts whatever defense one might make for people making frivolous posts on this blog to ridicule the science that explains what is happening.

True,,,, This IS happening now, This IS due to Global Warming. I am ashamed my govt isn't doing enough to help these people. Yet we have had about 700 boats land on Christmas Island full of illegal refugees fleeing there countries and our govt isn't doing enough to stop them. The people suffereing from the direct effects of Global Warming are in my opinion more important than people spending $$$$$$ to come here illegally. If they have $$$$$$ why jump on a rickety old fishing boat?
18 days left until the start of the East Pacific hurricane season.



1222. bappit
It is all fun and games. Right.
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. The Caribbean has supposedly changed a lot in just one week.

April 20th:



April 27th:



CFSR reanalysis has much lower values than AOML:

I wonder which is more accurate.

Quoting Levi32:
The Indian monsoon circulation will begin to stir soon. The CFS says it will be stronger than normal in mid-late May. There is research that suggests that the health of the Indian monsoon and African easterly waves are related.

What about Atlantic activity itself? Healthier convective/wave activity over Africa due to a strong monsoon over India is one thing but I'm yet to be convinced this also correlates with greater activity in the Atlantic basin itself. Usually greater activity in one basin means less in the others.
1225. Levi32
Quoting AussieStorm:
Btw,,, off topic from the main blog.
Anyone in Seattle here and/or a Seahawks Fan?

Please make welcome my good friend Jesse Williams.


Go 'Hawks!
1226. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
I wonder which is more accurate.

What about Atlantic activity itself? Healthier convective/wave activity over Africa due to a strong monsoon over India is one thing but I'm yet to be convinced this also correlates with greater activity in the Atlantic basin itself. Usually greater activity in one basin means less in the others.


African waves are the single greatest source of incipient disturbances that become tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. More robust waves always increases the chance of more TCs forming in the Atlantic relative to the environmental conditions in the Atlantic basin, which may be favorable or unfavorable.

If you mean the monsoon's affect on the environmental conditions in the Atlantic, then that could use further research, though I have noticed a tendency for the Indian and Atlantic basins to be coupled as the opposite convective signal to the Pacific, though that usually only happens when the ENSO is in a high amplitude state (Nino or Nina). If it's not, then perhaps things get more complicated than that.
Quoting Civicane49:


#1223 been bright, sunny, hot in Centex today, tonight's and tomorrow's fcst Clear, warm, as I watch that converged cell coming straight for us!
92P
It's getting "that" look.

Loop
The global models have become unenthusiastic regarding the potential for subtropical development off the southeast coast that was previously noted. This is the second day now, which totals up to between 4 and 8 separate runs depending on the model. Unless things change, Andrea must wait another day.

Ah well, it was fun while it lasted.
2012/2013 Winter Analysis

The melting season is about to shift one gear higher, and so I thought it'd be useful to have a comprehensive look at this past winter (just like we did last year). As we saw in this recent PIOMAS update, it seems that this year's conditions for ice formation were better over on the Siberian side of the Arctic.

The Beaufort Sea had relatively little multi-year ice flowing in which should make the pack weaker there, as evidenced by the large cracking event of February and March. The image on the top right shows a map of the ice pack, where this year's thickness is compared to last year's (red = thicker, blue = thinner).

I want to look further into this by comparing the 2012/2013 winter with those of previous record years, such as 2006/2007, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012. Click on the images if you want a larger version.

...
The shape of the old ice pack looks similar to that of last year, except that there's no barrier of transported multi-year ice in the Beaufort Sea. That means there's no buffer zone on the Pacific side of the Arctic to slow down melt towards the end of the melting season, as happened in 2010 and 2011. This probably has to do with the fact that the barrier got annihilated during last year's record melting season.


http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/20122013-w inter-analysis.html
Quoting DFWdad:
I like the project, sounds very interesting. Industrial soot is good for no one.

"the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011"

I did the math, because honestly the number sounded like a lot, and I do not remember anyone saying our sea levels have risen already. In fact, I seem to remember, that with tides and such, it is a hard thing to determine.

That's .49 inches in 20 years, when you figure 20% of 3.1mm per year for 20 years. .

"The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by twenty feet were it all to melt",

What exactly would it take for all of it to melt? Seriously, I want to know. How many years of no additional snow, and no winter temperatures?

I see these "what if's", and they seem to be boldly written to grab your attention. But I am a literal person, and I would like to know what it take for this seemingly worse-case scenario.



Roughly, two meters of melt over all of Greenland gives a 1 cm rise in sealevel world-wide.

The amount of white ice the sun melts on a clear day isn't that much, even less considering cold temperatures; picture how little snow melts during a cold winter day.

What really melts snow is being dirty and warm humid air. This is what is drastically changing in Greenland. As the world warms, the flow of warm air and pollutants will increase the melt.

If you figure a 100 day melt season on average, melting 2 cm of ice per day is a 1 cm rise world wide per year. That is what the current calculations are in order to get 1 meter in 100 years.
Quoting KoritheMan:
The global models have become unenthusiastic regarding the potential for subtropical development off the southeast coast that was previously noted. This is the second day now, which totals up to between 4 and 8 separate runs depending on the model. Unless things change, Andrea must wait another day.

Ah well, it was fun while it lasted.


Tropical/subtropical development just never made any sense to me with the type of pattern that is forecast. Low pressure everywhere = difficult time consolidating one entity into a circulation robust enough to support tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis, especially when the lowest pressures are over land.
According to JTWC, 92P has winds of 30 knots.
GEOS-5 wants to make it into a STD but than it gets sheared badly.
Fresh Cloudsat of the Low near Alaska.
Quoting Civicane49:
According to JTWC, 92P has winds of 30 knots.






Quoting Levi32:


African waves are the single greatest source of incipient disturbances that become tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. More robust waves always increases the chance of more TCs forming in the Atlantic relative to the environmental conditions in the Atlantic basin, which may be favorable or unfavorable.

If you mean the monsoon's affect on the environmental conditions in the Atlantic, then that could use further research, though I have noticed a tendency for the Indian and Atlantic basins to be coupled as the opposite convective signal to the Pacific, though that usually only happens when the ENSO is in a high amplitude state (Nino or Nina). If it's not, then perhaps things get more complicated than that.
Yes, that is what I was referring to. I'm aware of the significance of AEWs but if conditions are too hostile over the Atlantic basin then stronger waves over Africa doesn't mean much.

And interesting observations. Perhaps you could do further research on the topic one day as you continue with your meteorological career. For me, this blog is as far as my met career is going lol.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 18U
5:05 PM EST April 29 2013
===========================================

At 4:00 PM EST a Tropical Low (1001 hpa) located at 12.7S 152.8E or 1030 km east of Lockhart River and 890 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 3 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

A deepening Tropical Low situated over the northern Coral Sea is moving slowly in a westwards direction and is expected to deepen further while continuing to move in westwards direction tonight.

STRONG GALES may develop about coastal areas between Thursday Island and Cooktown during Wednesday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop across parts of far northern Queensland late Tuesday and during Wednesday as the deepening Tropical Low approaches the coast. People between Thursday Island and Cooktown should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
========================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Cooktown.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.7S 151.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.8S 149.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 11.8S 144.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 09.6S 139.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap on a log10 spiral, giving a DT of 2.0. MT and PT both suggest 2.0. FT based on MT.

The Tropical Low has developed in general over the last 24 hours while moving over the warm sea surface of the northern Coral Sea in a low wind shear environment. The Tropical Low is expected to continue to move within this favorable environment for further development over the next 24 hours and it should intensify into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday.

The Tropical Low has been moving slowly in a westwards direction over the last 12 hours and should continue to move in this direction during Tuesday under the influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central Coral Sea.
1241. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..7-day Tampa Bay area.............
1242. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
1243. LargoFl
1244. LargoFl
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A big rain event is forecast to begin by Thursday and last thru next weekend bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms thru the PR/USVI and BVI area. Is early to say if this will spread to the Leewards. Stay tuned for more information as the days progress.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL AREA IN GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT THEN MOVES NORTHEAST
PULLING A TROUGH BEHIND IT WHICH REMAINS IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THOSE IN THE ATLANTIC MOVED INTO PUERTO RICOS COASTAL
REGIONS OVERNIGHT LEAVING AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER TO SEVEN TENTHS OF
AN INCH ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST.
ALTHOUGH NO RAIN WAS RECORDED AT EITHER OF THE MAIN AIRPORTS IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS SKIRTING THE ISLANDS. LOCAL SOUNDERS REVEALED BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

WINDS AND STABILITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MUCH THE
SAME RESULTS EXPECTED. IN FACT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
HAVE SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE INLAND AND FAVORABLE STABILITY PROFILES SUCH THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM IN THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD. LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL DRAW UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. A 120 KT JET
WHICH PASSES ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS SAME TIME LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST CAUSING THE AREAS OF MAXIMUM RAIN TO SHIFT
FROM THEIR USUAL AREAS IN THE WEST AND FOCUS MORE ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE SOUTH COAST WILL ALSO SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS INCREASING FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE PLUME OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
CONTINUING TO YIELD GOOD MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER CONDITIONS DO NOT RETURN UNTIL MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PRESENTED IN THE 29/00Z RUN OF THE GFS.
AFTERNOON CAPE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS WILL DROP TO BELOW 50 ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY FRIDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY GOOD
MOISTURE AND STRONG OMEGA VALUES. FURTHER THE JET WILL BE IN A
POSITION TO DEVELOP EXCELLENT DYNAMICS.

AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THEY HAVE ON SUCCESSIVE RUNS PUSHED THE WET EVENT
LATER IN TIME...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY HAVE INCREASED THE
INTENSITY OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE.

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT
RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME
FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN
SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS
SOLUTION.

ACTIONS: EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONSIDER MAKING CONTINGENCY
PLANS FOR HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAT SPREAD AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD ALSO REVIEW THEIR PROVISIONS FOR WET WEATHER AND REVIEW
THEIR ACTION PLANS FOR GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING. LATER WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE MORE CERTAIN ACTUAL PREPARATIONS CAN THEN BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST AND TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 29/16Z AND TIL
29/22Z...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO INCR CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW LCL TAF SITES
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS...AND SAINT JOHN UNTIL 3 PM
AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY AS
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS SWELL
SUBSIDES. GENERALLY MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER BEGINS ON THURSDAY.
STRONGER WINDS MAY APPEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AT MID LATITUDES BUTTS UP AGAINST A CARIBBEAN
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 85 74 / 50 40 40 30
STT 84 74 86 76 / 20 30 30 30
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A pleasant 61 degrees here with a high of 82 expected later.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: scrambled eggs, bacon, toast, yogurt and fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 5:05 pm EST on Monday 29 April 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Thursday Island to Cooktown.

At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
1030 kilometres east of Lockhart River and
890 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and
moving west at 6 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

A deepening Tropical Low situated over the northern Coral Sea is moving slowly
in a westwards direction and is expected to deepen further while continuing to
move in westwards direction tonight.

STRONG GALES may develop about coastal areas between Thursday Island and
Cooktown during Wednesday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected to develop
across parts of far northern Queensland late Tuesday and during Wednesday as
the deepening Tropical Low approaches the coast.
People between Thursday Island and Cooktown should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 152.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday 29 April.

................................................. .............................................

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0645 UTC 29/04/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 152.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west [278 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 29/1800: 12.7S 151.1E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 999
24: 30/0600: 12.8S 149.1E: 095 [175]: 040 [075]: 996
36: 30/1800: 12.4S 146.8E: 115 [210]: 045 [085]: 994
48: 01/0600: 11.8S 144.4E: 135 [245]: 045 [085]: 994
60: 01/1800: 10.6S 141.8E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1003
72: 02/0600: 9.6S 139.0E: 170 [320]: 025 [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap on a log10
spiral, giving a DT of 2.0. MT and PT both suggest 2.0. FT based on MT.

The Tropical Low has developed in general over the last 24 hours while moving
over the warm sea surface of the northern Coral Sea in a low wind shear
environment. The Tropical Low is expected to continue to move within this
favourable environment for further development over the next 24 hours and it
should intensify into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday.

The Tropical Low has been moving slowly in a westwards direction over the last
12 hours and should continue to move in this direction during Tuesday under the
influence of a developing mid-level ridge across Queensland and the central
Coral Sea.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Good Morning!

GGEM precip accum.
533 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL SEA AND LAKE
BREEZES WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR...AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF...LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ABOUT 400 PM AND 1000 PM. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM TO INITIALLY FORM FROM THE TREASURE
COAST TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND SEA AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND INLAND AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...AND INTERACTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE FREQUENT.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. DUE TO
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...COIN SIZED HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE
PERIOD. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...OR IF SKIES
LOOK THREATENING.
Quoting LargoFl:


any rain by you last night as I saw some heavy rain near Largo last evening?
Rainy Season?

1252. VR46L


Good Morning Folks !!

I was in a great mood until I read Back.....


Quoting BobChecks:
Am I correct in my suspicion that when the discussion turns in directions that bothers some people they then post images in an attempt to disrupt?



If you believe that posting images of weather on the main blog of a weather site is a form of trolling then I suggest you minus and flag the images as inappropriate .... and if they are removed I will stop posting them …

Personally I love looking at the images and weather info that is shared on here and I can tell some folk on here really seem to like the images posted .. and I like sharing the images that I post ... but if images such as the images I post are a problem I just wont bother anymore .... Going to post a couple of images now , I guess I will judge how they are received ….
Euro 96hrs


Euro 120hrs
1254. VR46L
World weather in one Image

Quoting VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !!

I was in a great mood until I read Back.....





If you believe that posting images of weather on the main blog of a weather site is a form of trolling then I suggest you minus and flag the images as inappropriate .... and if they are removed I will stop posting them …

Personally I love looking at the images and weather info that is shared on here and I can tell some folk on here really seem to like the images posted .. and I like sharing the images that I post ... but if images such as the images I post are a problem I just wont bother anymore .... Going to post a couple of images now , I guess I will judge how they are received ….


Pay no attention Liz, I love your pictures and consider you a favorite poster.
Thanks Scott, looks like the predicted low starts to form by 120 hours..
1257. VR46L
Looks like a viable Wave around East Central Africa

1258. ncstorm
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro 96hrs


Euro 120hrs


Good Morning Everyone..

Scott is that Sub tropical?
Close to 20" of rain along FL's East coast thru 240hrs on the GGEM.

1260. VR46L
Quoting indianrivguy:


Pay no attention Liz, I love your pictures and consider you a favorite poster.


Aw thanks IRG !!

I think you are great to !
I have more information the Droughtmonitor is full of crap.

Minnesota is under water, Fargo has had 68" of snow this winter, The Red river is over flowing, yet the Drought monitor says there under a severe drought, I looked through their site, saw the data, it never adds up to the real story is.
I've looked in the southeast, south, southwest portions of the Country, it's the same all over the United States.
I will admit, sometimes they are right with their predictions,and analysis, with regarding droughts.
But other times, they just the typical big Government lying to the public for their own survival.

My post in here is to demonstrate how analysis is not always true or might be exaggerated for future funding or political recourse!
Quoting ncstorm:


Good Morning Everyone..

Scott is that Sub tropical?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

THU-SUN...BOTH MODELS SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK...THE
DISAGREEMENT OF COURSE REMAINS IN THE DETAILS.

THE NE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARDS ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE
WEAK LOW FROM THE EARLIER FRONT BACK INTO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT
WILL MEANDER IN THE VICINITY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW UNDER LOWER UPPER
HEIGHTS.
THE RESULT IS A MUCH WETTER FRI-SUN WHERE THE GFS HAS POPS
AT 20-30 PERCENT.

HAVE KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST AT 30-40 PERCENT RATHER THAN GOING
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE ECMWF AS THE FINAL SOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON WHERE THE TROUGH/SFC LOW SETS UP IN RELATION TO THE COAST.
WITH BRISK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW HEAVY COASTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS TO SET UP.
1263. ncstorm
WPC Day 3-6 sea level pressure map





Good morning folks. Looks like Florida is gonna get some rain this week. Early start to the rainy season maybe?
1265. ncstorm
well the rain is here for us..looks like for the next four days.

1266. WxLogic
Morning...
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. Looks like Florida is gonna get some rain this week. Early start to the rainy season maybe?


The GGEM & Euro are showing rainfall totals approaching 10" to 20" in some areas. This situation unfolding this week reminds me of May 2009 when the state was deluged with as much as 36" of rain in Bunnel just north of Daytona.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The GGEM & Euro are showing rainfall totals approaching 10" to 20" in some areas. This situation unfolding this week reminds me of May 2009 when the state was deluged with as much as 36" of rain in Bunnel just north of Daytona.


Yeah it does. I want to see rain but not that much. I remember there was alot of flooding in 2009. I'd be happy with 5 inches.
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. The Caribbean has supposedly changed a lot in just one week.

April 20th:



April 27th:



CFSR reanalysis has much lower values than AOML:



I have seen warmer sea surface temperatures than that before down there before at this time of year, however; I can not recall seeing that much tropical cyclone heat potential at such an early time in the season. Rather concerning...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The GGEM & Euro are showing rainfall totals approaching 10" to 20" in some areas. This situation unfolding this week reminds me of May 2009 when the state was deluged with as much as 36" of rain in Bunnel just north of Daytona.

Incredible. Exactly how accurate is this GGEM model? Can I put the same amount of confidence in it to analyze precipitation projections like I can with the NAM or the GFS? Also, is the GGEM another name for the CMC?

Thanks, Scott! Good morning, Buddy; by the way...
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Yeah it does. I want to see rain but not that much. I remember there was alot of flooding in 2009. I'd be happy with 5 inches.

Precisely. No one wants a Fay!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Yeah it does. I want to see rain but not that much. I remember there was alot of flooding in 2009. I'd be happy with 5 inches.


In May 2009 we had a cut off low sit right over FL and this week appears very similar. GFS however is not as robust as all the other models however. Nogaps, Euro, & GGEM all are painting a wet scenario for FL.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Incredible. Exactly how accurate is this GGEM model? Can I use it to analyze precipitation projections like I can with the NAM or the GFS? Also, is the GGEM another name for the CMC?

Thanks, Scott! Good morning Buddy, btw...

The GGEM = CMC. It's a good model overall, but does have a tendency to exaggerate, especially when dealing with tropical cyclone development and intensification.
1274. pcola57
Good Morning All..
68 degrees here with 93%rh and dew at 66..
Overcast with winds 4.6mph out of the North..
No rainfall here today as of this post..

Pensacola NAS (KNPA)

Another sticky gloomy morning at the beach..



Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Incredible. Exactly how accurate is this GGEM model? Can I use it to analyze precipitation projections like I can with the NAM or the GFS? Also, is the GGEM another name for the CMC?

Thanks, Scott! Good morning Buddy, btw...


It's now ranked better than the GFS. Euro and GGEM are ranked at the top. I beleive the GFS has slipped to either 3rd or 4th out of all the global models.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GGEM = CMC. It's a good model overall, but does have a tendency to exaggerate, especially when dealing with tropical cyclone development and intensification.

Okay. I'll keep that in mind. Thank you!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's now ranked better than the GFS. Euro and GGEM are ranked at the top. I beleive the GFS has slipped to either 3rd of 4th out of all the global models.

Interesting. Up to now I thought the GFS was still King. LOL. Goes to show how fast things can change. I will add last year's tropical season really put these models to the raw test. Euro absolutely nailed Isaac.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Interesting. Up to now I thought the GFS was still King. LOL. Goes to show how fast things can change. I will add last year's tropical season really put these models to the raw test. Euro absolutely nailed Isaac.


GFS did nailed Debby last year but the Euro nailed Issac and Sandy.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS did nailed Debby last year but the Euro nailed Issac and Sandy.

Yes, that's the storm the GFS did well with! I couldn't remember the name. Although that's probably a good thing after all the headaches Debby gave us!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Those wave are starting to move up in latitude now.
Chance of rain all week 40% to 70%!!:)
1283. ncstorm
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...MID LEVEL LOW/WEAKNESS PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS LEFT BEHIND A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
SHEAR AXIS AT MID LEVELS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY BRIEFLY FORM
NEAR LOUISIANA ON DAY 2 BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS OPENING UP AGAIN. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY FORCING FROM A
WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL JET THAT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
DAYS 2/3 IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH MUCH OF THE
JET-RELATED FORCING LOCATED OFFSHORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE MODELS TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW CENTER. THE 00Z
GFS IS MAYBE WEAK...BY NOT CLOSING OFF A 576 DECAMETER CONTOUR AT
500 MB...BUT ITS CIRCULATION FOLLOWS OUR FAVORED PROGRESSION AND
HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS THE
GFS...ALTHOUGH IT KEEPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE END OF
DAY 3. THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT DOES
SO VERY EARLY IN THE CYCLE...NOT OBVIOUSLY DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET FORCING...AND THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN IT. THE UKMET DID
NOT TREND SOUTHWARD...AND THE CANADIAN IS EXCLUDED FROM OUR
PREFERENCE ONLY FOR ITS SEEMINGLY POOR RESOLUTION OF THE REMNANT
SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS...IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF SYSTEM.


...TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THIS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THAT ORIGINATED FROM SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH HEADS OFF THE
EAST COAST BY DAY 2. THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COASTS THEN
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER IN DROPPING DOWN A
HIGH-LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TOWARD MAINE LATE ON DAY 3. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS FEATURE IS FARTHER EAST...AND THE 00Z ECMWF
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. A NEW KINK WAS INTRODUCED BY THE 00Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH INDICATE A SMALL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD NORTH ATLANTIC
TROUGH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC AREA OF THE U.S. ON
DAY 2. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN TO SOME EXTENT BY THE 00Z UKMET. IN
EXAMINING THE FEATURE...WHICH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...IT IS NOT APPARENT WHY IT SHOULD BECOME SO
PRONOUNCED WHEN MOVING INTO A DEVELOPING MEAN RIDGE POSITION ON
DAY 2. THEREFORE WE STILL FAVOR THE GFS ON THE LARGE SCALE...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS ON THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
1284. LargoFl
HAD A LIGHT SHOWER EARLIER,STRONG ONES LATER ON MAYBE.....
1286. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Chance of rain all week 40% to 70%!!:)
sounds great..nice to see the rains returning for us in florida.
1287. pcola57




1288. LargoFl
1289. pcola57
Monday Morning blues for Mid-Atlantic this am

Raleigh/Durham, NC (KRAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Wilmington, NC (KLTX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Dover AFB, DE (KDOX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1290. pcola57
Lots of moisture aloft in Texas this am..

Quoting pcola57:
Lots of moisture aloft in Texas this am..



That upper low could be the ignitor of our possible STS later this week.
1292. LargoFl
Tampa put the shields down we need this here lol.........
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those wave are starting to move up in latitude now.


Yes, those waves still need to gain some latitude before we'll have something to track
The Weather Channel
Today is the official launch of Tornado Hunt 2013! Tune-in all week as the Tornado Hunt crew puts themselves at risk in order to document a tornado's development! Stay up-to-date with our livestream and be sure to 'LIKE' our Tornado Hunt Facebook page.


Lets hope this doesn't end badly for one of there reporters.
1295. pcola57
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That upper low could be the ignitor of our possible STS later this week.


Interesting feature Scott..
I'm curious..
Do you have a Good GOM 3 day out forecast model??
1296. LargoFl
wens might turn out to be interesting for the coastal area's..
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weather Channel
Today is the official launch of Tornado Hunt 2013! Tune-in all week as the Tornado Hunt crew puts themselves at risk in order to document a tornado's development! Stay up-to-date with our livestream and be sure to 'LIKE' our Tornado Hunt Facebook page.


Lets hope this doesn't end badly for one of there reporters.


The only thing is they won't have any tornadoes to track atleast for the next 2 weeks. Maybe they'll see a thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds later this week.

RE 1245 Tropicsweatherpr:

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS SOLUTION.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

That's some pretty significant rain on its way! I would suspect some extensive flooding as the ground is so dry here.

And true to form, Carnival came and went, and the rains arrive!

Lindy
1299. LargoFl
a wet evening rush hour if this verifies............
1300. LargoFl
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
RE 1245 Tropicsweatherpr:

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS SOLUTION.


Good morning/afternoon/evening all

That's some pretty significant rain on its way! I would suspect some extensive flooding as the ground is so dry here.

And true to form, Carnival came and went, and the rains arrive!
Good Luck over there Lindy..stay safe
Lindy
Quoting pcola57:


Interesting feature Scott..
I'm curious..
Do you have a Good GOM 3 day out forecast model??


I prefer the Euro out of all the models in the 3 to 5 day range as it is the most consistant.

This little yellow dot over Louisiana is the upper low that is over TX now.

72hrs
1302. LargoFl
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 3h
A mix of sun & clouds today with sct shwrs & storms, mainly during the afternoon #FLwx http://ow.ly/i/1ZHEL
1303. LargoFl
1304. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl: Post#1299
a wet evening rush hour if this verifies............


I agree Largo..
Messy day for them..



Quoting LargoFl:


Hi Largo, this may be your week to get some much needed rains! Jedkins said his yard is drying up so I hope you guys can join in on the action as well.
good morning guys
hmm it looks like NHC is on board with models lets see what happens


and also there is what looks to be a good tropical wave in east central africa
1307. LargoFl
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Largo, this may be your week to get some much needed rains! Jedkins said his yard is drying up so I hope you guys can join in on the action as well.
Hi, yes we need this rain badly, looks like a good possibility all week long, if we DO get this it will help out with our drought situation.
1308. LargoFl
did anyone get that BaseBall sized hail yesterday..cant imagine being in that whew.....
1309. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
1310. Grothar
Quoting AussieStorm:


So I am still geographically correct... Thanks


I find your entry to be highly offensive. I know where there TROPICS are and it does not have to be pointed out to me like a two year old. I joke around but I am nobody's fool, including yours. I was pointing out to Levi in a joking way about the different climates in Florida, (of which we have four in case you didn't know). I know damn well Florida does not lie in the """""TROPICS""""", geographically. The climate in South Florida is considered tropical, and the rest varies.
Quoting LargoFl:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.


I hope THAT does not verify. I'll take the rain but not the straight line winds or lighening and hail
New Research Shows Humans Causing More Strong Hurricanes


"The link between human-caused global warming and extreme weather is often difficult to pin down, particularly with regards to hurricanes. As Kevin Trenberth has discussed, all weather now occurs in a climate that humans have altered.


"it is important to recognize that we have a %u201Cnew normal,%u201D whereby the environment in which all storms form is simply different than it was just a few decades ago. Global climate change has contributed to the higher sea surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures, a warmer and moister atmosphere above the ocean, higher water levels around the globe, and perhaps more precipitation in storms."

Two new papers have recently been published examining the link between global warming and hurricane intensity. In both cases, the scientists have found evidence that the most intense hurricanes are already occurring more often as a result of human-caused global warming. However, their predictions about future hurricane changes differ somewhat."

Grinsted on Hurricane Storm Surges


In a new paper, Grinsted et al. (2013) constructed a storm surge index beginning in 1923 from six long tide gauge records in the southeastern USA. The idea is that surges in sea level recorded at tide gauge stations can tell us about strong hurricane events. Consistent with their 2012 results, the authors found:


"The strong winds and intense low pressure associated with tropical cyclones generate storm surges. These storm surges are the most harmful aspect of tropical cyclones in the current climate, and wherever tropical cyclones prevail they are the primary cause of storm surges."

They compared their storm surge index to changes in global surface temperature, to temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR; a part of the Atlantic Ocean where most hurricanes form), and to MDR warming relative to the tropical mean temperatures (rMDR). They found that averaged sea surface temperatures over the MDR are the best predictor of Atlantic cyclone activity, followed by global average surface temperature, with MDR warming relative to the tropics being the worst predictor of hurricane activity (Figure 1).

Figure 1: (A) Average surge index over the cyclone season. (B) Observed frequency
of surge events with surge index greater than 10 units per year (surge index > 10 units). (C) Global average temperature, MDR temperature, and rMDR temperature anomaly. Inset shows locations along the US coast of the six tide gauges used in the surge index.

Grinsted et al. then used the relationships between hurricane storm surges and global and MDR temperatures to predict how storm surges will change in the future. The used the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, which represents a future in which we slowly reduce human greenhouse gas emissions such that they peak around the year 2040. In this scenario, there is approximately 2.4%uFFFDC global surface warming over the 21st century. The results are shown in Figure 2.

"The response to a 1%uFFFDC warming is consistently an increase [in Katrina-level storm surges] by a factor of 2%u20137 ... This increase does not include the additional increasing surge threat from sea level rise"

http://skepticalscience.com//pics/Grinsted13Fig3. png

Figure 2: Number of Katrina magnitude surge events per decade (B) hindcast and projected changes in temperatures from climate model BNU-ESM under for RCP4.5 (A). The thick blue line shows the projection using the full spatial gridded temperatures and confidence interval (5%u201316%u201384%u201395%); magenta and black show the projections using only Main Development Region (MDR) and global average surface temperature.

In short, the Grinsted results suggest that by the end of the century, we will see 2 to 7 times more Katrina-like intense hurricanes. Moreover, their storm surges and associated damage will be even larger because sea levels will also be higher.

In another important result, Grinsted et al. found that on average, the frequency of Katrina-magnitude storm surges doubles for every approximately 0.4%uFFFDC average global surface warming. Since human-caused global surface warming over the past century has already exceeded 0.4%uFFFDC,


"we have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not."

Holland and Bruy%uFFFD

Holland and Bruy%uFFFD (2013) developed an Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. Their ACCI is the difference between climate model runs including human climate influences (greenhouse gases and aerosols) and runs without those human influences.

The study concluded that while they don't see any human influence in the total number of hurricanes, there is a strong signal with global warming causing more strong (Category 4 and 5) and fewer weak (Category 1 and 2) hurricanes (Figure 3).


"We find an observed change in the proportion of global Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes (relative to all hurricanes) at a rate of ~40% increase in proportion per %uFFFDC increase in ACCI ... We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes of 25%u201330% per %uFFFDC of anthropogenic global warming."




Figure 3: Human influence on hurricane proportions in the highest (Category 4-5) and lowest (Category 1-2) Saffir%u2013Simpson hurricane categories

This result means more than a doubling of strong hurricanes for every %uFFFDC of warming, similar to that of Grinsted et al. (2%u20137 times more Katrina-like events), though a bit lower.

The good news is that the model used by Holland and Bruy%uFFFD anticipates that we are approaching a limit in this trend of increasing proportionality of intense hurricanes


"An important finding is that the proportion of intense hurricanes appears to initially increase in response to warming oceans, but then approach a saturation level after which no further increases occur. There is tentative evidence that the saturation level will differ across the tropical cyclone basins and that the global proportion of Cat 4%u20135 hurricanes may already be near it%u2019s saturation level of ~40%u201350%."

Summary

These two papers add to the growing body of evidence that we are seeing more intense hurricanes as a result of human-caused global warming. The Grinsted paper also notes that the most harmful aspect of hurricanes %u2013 storm surges %u2013 have become larger over the past few decades.

The future of hurricanes remains an open question. While Grinsted predicts that the most intense hurricanes will continue to become more and more frequent in a warming world, the results of Holland and Bruy� suggest that we may be near the peak of intense hurricane frequency. The Grinsted results are more in line with most previous hurriane modeling research, but for the sake of people living in areas subject to hurricanes, we hope that Holland and Bruy� are correct about the hurricane saturation level.






1313. LargoFl
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I hope THAT does not verify. I'll take the rain but not the straight line winds or lighening and hail
Hiya, yes we need to stay alert this afternoon and evening
1314. LargoFl
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


Great post TA13
1317. pcola57
Re: Post 1312

Very interesting post John..
Important studies with substantial info on Major Hurricaines..
An estimated 40% increase in Katrina type storm surges being proven by the data..
Wow..
Thats quite an increase..
Thanks so much for the post this am.. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


+100
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


A perfect post.
1321. ncstorm
Wash..dont give them the time and energy..

from our NWS, Wilmington, NC

MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL OFFER GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FOR 24 HOURS TOTALS. THIS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE FOR OUR SOILS TO
SOAK UP WITH NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED. WITH THIS SAID
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY PROMPT A
LOCALIZED FLS GIVEN THE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN PLACE.

models are handling the placement of the low horribly..nothing but low confidence in our forecast..

HE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH WHILE ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
CUTOFF AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS NORTH...INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE
GULF COAST. THIS HELPS PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE
SHORTWAVE SLOWS BUT NEVER REALLY BECOMES CUTOFF WITH DEEP MOISTURE
STAYING OFF THE COAST INTO TUE NIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. HAVE BUMPED POP
TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW BUT IF GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS VERIFY HIGHER POP
WILL BE REQUIRED.

CONVECTION CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT AGAIN
COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL POINT TO WEAK
REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN US WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE 5H LOW SETS UP BUT ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO
AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION. WETTER SOLUTIONS POINT TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ALONG WITH THE TROUBLE GUIDANCE
TENDS TO HAVE WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE A LOT OF
CHANGES TO WED FORECAST. WILL KEEP DIURNAL CHC POP WITH NOCTURNAL
SILENT POP.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK. THU AND THU NIGHT MOISTURE LINGERING IN
THE AREA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD WORK TO OFFSET HEATING. AT THIS POINT
INHERITED SILENT POP LOOKS GOOD.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES FRI AS BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE.
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHICH CREATES POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE CAROLINAS. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHUNT DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT
5H RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CUTOFF...SLIDING
INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE TYPICALLY HAS MORE STAYING POWER THAN GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. IF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONG THE FRONT COULD
REMAIN STALLED WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF AND WPC HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING.
FEEL PRUDENT ACTION IS TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
UNTIL THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
A LITTLE CLEARER. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


Did you rip that right our of Landsea's previous remarks?

Lol jk,
CMC big big big rain on SFL!

1001MB on FL
1324. LargoFl
Getting closer..................
1326. LargoFl
1329. LargoFl
gulf waters warming up now..............
1330. LargoFl
this one is gonna miss me i think.............
1331. LargoFl
STAY ALERT THIS EVENING EAST COAST FLORIDA..................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL SEA AND LAKE
BREEZES WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR...AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF...LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ABOUT 400 PM AND 1000 PM. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM TO INITIALLY FORM FROM THE TREASURE
COAST TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND SEA AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND INLAND AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...AND INTERACTIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE FREQUENT.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. DUE TO
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...COIN SIZED HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE
PERIOD. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...OR IF SKIES
LOOK THREATENING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH A STORM MOTION OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING OVER INLAND
LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC. SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A VERY SMALL...BUT DISCERNIBLE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS OR
FUNNEL CLOUDS TO FORM IN SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY...BARRIER ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. ANY SPOUT WHICH
FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.
1332. LargoFl
1333. JRRP
1335. LargoFl
nature coast stay alert,some heavy rain coming..
1336. LargoFl
some nice rains coming to you later gainesville etc.

Paper on how hurricanes gain energy from boundary-layer turbulence published in Geophysical Research Letters
Quoting stormchaser19:

Paper on how hurricanes gain energy from boundary-layer turbulence published in Geophysical Research Letters

Do you have a link to the paper available to you? I would love to give that one a read.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


The study is a fallacy, since it focuses on alleged "category 4 and 5 hurricanes," and obviously assumes the worst surges are associated with the highest landfall intensities, which we already know is not entirely true.

This is why I would favor a two-tiered classification and warning system. It's true local mets and even NHC already use two-tiered terminology sometimes, "The storm has category 3 winds, but may make a storm surge typical of category 4".

However, the fact that such terminology is not used as an official classification, even though the original SS Hurricane scale was obviously intended to be used that way, ends up ultimately being less effective, I think, in warning people of the conditions.

The old scale was not communicated properly, and surge values were associated with a fixed wind value or wind category, which was never intended to be the case, as the original scale used, "either winds between X and Y, or surge between A and B" language.


So to my mind, if they want to talk about the effects of SST changes on storm surges, they first need to classify storms by their surge potential, so that they aren't mixing terminology, the way the incorrectly used SS Hurricane scale was doing.
1261 trunkmonkey: I have more information the Drought Monitor is full of...

Water flooding down streets and rivers then onward to the ocean does not alleviate drought.
Dumping lemonade down the drain does not quench your thirst.
Claiming that it does so does not make you look smart.

Quoting Grothar:


I find your entry to be highly offensive. I know where there TROPICS are and it does not have to be pointed out to me like a two year old. I joke around but I am nobody's fool, including yours. I was pointing out to Levi in a joking way about the different climates in Florida, (of which we have four in case you didn't know). I know damn well Florida does not lie in the """""TROPICS""""", geographically. The climate in South Florida is considered tropical, and the rest varies.

Chillax mate. It was meant in a sarcastic way, No offence intended. Peace
Quoting LargoFl:
did anyone get that BaseBall sized hail yesterday..cant imagine being in that whew.....

If I did, I would of got out swinging i.e got "struck-out"
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


RE: 1334.

Would be interesting to see the averages by decade for each of the past 3 decades.

It would seem that one year below 25 percentile more than makes up for the over-active years we've had.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 399.72 parts per million (ppm) and is likely to pass the symbolically important 400ppm level for the first time in the next few days.

Readings at the US government's Earth Systems Research laboratory in Hawaii, are not expected to reach their 2013 peak until mid May, but were recorded at 399.72ppm on 25 April. The weekly mean average stood at 398.5 on Monday.

The last time CO2 levels were so high was probably in the Pliocene epoch, between 3.2m and 5m years ago, when Earth's climate was much warmer than today.

Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Do you have a link to the paper available to you? I would love to give that one a read.


Link
12Z NAM onboard with Nogaps, Euro, & GGEM with showing a very heavy rain event for FL (especially eastern FL) with some areas easily getting 10" of rain by the end of the week.


Coastal areas of C & S FL may pull a Houston this week as flooding would be likely with that amount of rain.
Paper on the understanding and forecasting of rapid changes to tropical cyclones published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review...
Paper on whether coupling hurricane models to underlying waves is necessary for accurate hurricane prediction released online by the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society



Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.



A simple yet monumental truth. I've always emphasized this at well. Technically water temps only near to hit the mid 80's for even a high end category 5 given the right atmospheric conditions.

It's kind of like getting excited about a new refined fuel the boosts your engines horsepower by 50 but you don't even have an efficient enough engine to take advantage of.

Thankfully, even under the greatest conditions, hurricanes are still not that efficient in utilizing the available energy. What most people don't think about is what is far more important than temperature is heat capacity. The total heat capacity of water is VERY high which is why it is such a good "fuel" source for hurricanes.

It is the reason you get so cold going in the water, because the process of thermodynamics is transfer of heat. Your body's heat is literally being depleted quickly and transferred into the water.

Since heat moves from a warmer to a cooler object, as long as your body is warmer than the water temperature, you can still get hypothermia given enough time in it thanks to the impressive heat capacity of water. However, once water becomes warmer than your body, the same happens. That is why you could touch a 212 degree surface like metal, and yes your hand would get quite hot, but no real burns. However, we all no that boiling water feels like liquid fire. In fact I've been burned by both fire and boiling water, I'd actually take fire over boiling water...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Coastal areas of C & S FL may pull a Houston this week as flooding would be likely with that amount of rain.


Yes very beneficial rain appears to be on the way. I'll be home later this week from FSU since finals are this week, so I'll be in Tampa Bay for the rainy season :)
Quoting Jedkins01:



A simple yet monumental truth. I've always emphasized this at well. Technically water temps only near to hit the mid 80's for even a high end category 5 given the right atmospheric conditions.

It's kind of like getting excited about a new refined fuel the boosts your engines horsepower by 50 but you don't even have an efficient enough engine to take advantage of.

Thankfully, even under the greatest conditions, hurricanes are still not that efficient in utilizing the available energy. What most people don't think about is what is far more important than temperature is heat capacity. The total heat capacity of water is VERY high which is why it is such a good "fuel" source for hurricanes.

It is the reason you get so cold going in the water, because the process of thermodynamics is transfer of heat. Your body's heat is literally being depleted quickly and transferred into the water.

Since heat moves from a warmer to a cooler object, as long as your body is warmer than the water temperature, you can still get hypothermia given enough time in it thanks to the impressive heat capacity of water. However, once water becomes warmer than your body, the same happens. That is why you could touch a 212 degree surface like metal, and yes your hand would get quite hot, but no real burns. However, we all no that boiling water feels like liquid fire. In fact I've been burned by both fire and boiling water, I'd actually take fire over boiling water...


Hey buddy your coming back down just in time for some fun.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hey buddy your coming back down just in time for some fun.


haha yep!

I'm actually ill with a pretty severe flu right now so I'm a little worried about being prepared for my finals as it has been quite hard to study, hopefully I'll still make it through ok, by the time I'm home I should be back to normal health as well.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yes very beneficial rain appears to be on the way. I'll be home later this week from FSU since finals are this week, so I'll be in Tampa Bay for the rainy season :)


A fairly strong ESE wind and a cut off upper low looks like it is going to set the stage for some very high rain totals across FL especially on the eastern side of the state.
What Does 400 ppm Look Like?

The Pliocene is the geologic era between five million and three million years ago. Scientists have come to regard it as the most recent period in history when the atmosphere’s heat-trapping ability was as it is now and thus as our guide for things to come.

Recent estimates suggest CO2 levels reached as much as 415 parts per million (ppm) during the Pliocene. With that came global average temperatures that eventually reached 3 or 4 degrees C (5.4-7.2 degrees F) higher than today’s and as much as 10 degrees C (18 degrees F) warmer at the poles. Sea level ranged between five and 40 meters (16 to 131 feet) higher than today.

The Keeling Curve
1356. NRAamy
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.
1357. VR46L
Quoting NRAamy:
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.



You are going to wake them up and make them mad !!!


But Interesting Piece !
The annual average is the center line. It appears we'd need another 9 or 10 year for that to reach 415ppm at Hawaii, or about 7 or 8 years in Alaska.



and

1359. LargoFl
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z NAM onboard with Nogaps, Euro, & GGEM with showing a very heavy rain event for FL (especially eastern FL) with some areas easily getting 10" of rain by the end of the week.


gee if that verifies, some lakes and stream will flood huh..we'll see what happens..i think my area is 4-7 inches below normal,not sure on that but if we got 5 inches this week i'd be happy.
1360. LargoFl
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BECOMING NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
1361. LargoFl
STAY INDOORS JEDKINS..DONT KNOW HOW FAR THIS IS FROM YOU....TALLAHASEE --
About 1,100 people have been evacuated from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles office in Tallahassee after the DMV received a threatening letter mentioning "anthrax" and said to contain a suspicious powder.

Hazmat crews at the scene said they have begun investigating the powder, which was not immediately identified.
"Following standard protocol, local, state and federal authorities were notified, and the building was temporarily evacuated until the area is deemed safe to return," said Florida Highway Patrol Capt. Nancy Rasmussen.
1362. LargoFl
1363. LargoFl
1364. Sangria
RE: Posts 1259 and 1346

I don't post often, but I read this blog, along with other sites, daily. Most often, it is pretty valid info, but I have to say.....either I need a new prescription, for my glasses......or a new monitor, with better color resolution.......

I'm sorry, Will Robinson.....this does not compute.....this does not compute......

Even the QPF, from HPC, is taken with a micro grain of salt.....





1365. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha yep!

I'm actually ill with a pretty severe flu right now so I'm a little worried about being prepared for my finals as it has been quite hard to study, hopefully I'll still make it through ok, by the time I'm home I should be back to normal health as well.


One of the things that too many students do not seem to understand: The harder you study for an exam, the less you actually know coming out of that class.

The material should be understood and answers to questions and details should be available for quick recall.

The more you structure your brain by last minute studying, the more you ingrain an "order" to the material in the storage medium of your grey-matter- "connections" and make dis-ordered recall of the details even harder to perform at exam time.

This is the reason you should take notes, read the material in the text both before and after the lecture, reread your notes before the weekend...etc.
If you look at the extent of damage both Isaac and Sandy did, then you will see that our definition of "major" needs to change.
Good Morning. Gray & Klotzbach currently reject any potential GW impacts on Atlantic season hurricanes (the basin they focus on). The low numbers of majors last year, as opposed to the predictions where everyone turned out wrong, is an interesting outcome and linked to higher trade wind speeds and very stable air over the Atlantic basin. We don't know exactly what will happen this year but these are two additional factors to consider outside of the normal "summer" baselines (low shear/ssts/MJO/SAL/EAW formation/rise of the ITCZ above 10 degrees/moist ITCZ, etc).

These baselines are "nature" driven and have existed for thousands of years as they fall into place every summer in the Atlantic basin. Don't expect these mechanisms to change significantly anytime soon but they all have to "gel" at one time to make a viable development environment for any particular storm.

SST's and low shear are not enough in and by themselves to create a reasonable number of majors in any given season......Will be interesting to see if any of these baselines do in fact alter somewhat in the coming decades and what the impact, if any, will be on what has typically been defined as a "normal" hurricane season by analog standards.
1369. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
Quoting NRAamy:
‘We Could Be In For A Cooling Period That Lasts 200-250 Years’ Russian Scientists Claim

Date: 29/04/13

Voice of Russia


‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040.’

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.


Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.
Hey Scot, are the models still showing your potential subtrop?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure how that can be said already when we've seen a very low number of major hurricanes recently. Sea surface temperatures can rise all they want, if atmospheric conditions aren't favourable for the development of major hurricanes, then there is not going to be an increase in them.


When you say recently what does that mean? Ever since the AMO transitioned into a warm phase in 1995 we have seen many more major hurricanes. That is what I would call "recent." There is definitely a correlation between warm AMO and greater numbers of major hurricanes.

While it is true just because you have warmer SSTs doesn't mean you will have many more major hurricanes, we have observed increases in the numbers of major hurricanes over decadal time spans due to SST changes.

To clarify, I don't necessarily agree with the paper about storm surges either, just wondering if you were referring to the part about an increase in the number of major hurricanes.
Quoting yonzabam:
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 399.72 parts per million (ppm) and is likely to pass the symbolically important 400ppm level for the first time in the next few days.

Readings at the US government's Earth Systems Research laboratory in Hawaii, are not expected to reach their 2013 peak until mid May, but were recorded at 399.72ppm on 25 April. The weekly mean average stood at 398.5 on Monday.

The last time CO2 levels were so high was probably in the Pliocene epoch, between 3.2m and 5m years ago, when Earth's climate was much warmer than today.

Link
Actually, a handful of hourly average CO2 readings at Mauna Loa were over the 400 ppm line this week, and since NH atmospheric CO2 hits its annual peak in the next two weeks, there will almost certainly be one or more daily averages over that line.

co2
Quoting luvtogolf:


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.


Ugh, now the anti AGW crowd is using the term "denier" now.

The anti AGW crowd saying "denier" is just as childish as the AGW crowd saying it!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Chicklit:
If you look at the extent of damage both Isaac and Sandy did, then you will see that our definition of "major" needs to change.


Great point. If sea levels do rise in the coming decades, a tropical storm alone, with storm surge issues, will cause much more damages and coastal losses than in past decades..........
Quoting luvtogolf:


Interesting read. Now let the deniers come in and shoot this down as unsubstantiated garbage and claim that the science has proven the earth will continue to bake until the end of the world.
As anyone reading that newspaper clipping will quickly realize, the opinions and assumptions inserted by the article's writer are not supported by the scientists quoted in the piece. Who are these "scientists from Britain and the US" of which the writer speaks? Who are these "some experts"? Who are the "they" who say that a "cold spell will set in"?

This is the problem with falling for popular journalism while ignoring mountains of peer-reviewed science: you'll almost always get a bum steer, just as we see here.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Link

Thanks, I appreciate it!
How is everybody,
T-28 days til hurricane season.
What do you think of this hurricane season
Quoting Andrebrooks:
What do you think of this hurricane season

You're on the wrong blog...

Link