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"Dante's Inferno" in Chile: All-Time National Heat Record Smashed by 6°F

By: Jeff Masters 3:28 PM GMT on January 27, 2017

The first all-time national heat record of 2017 was set in spectacular fashion on Thursday in Chile, where at least twelve different stations recorded a temperature in excess of the nation’s previous all-time heat record—a 41.6°C (106.9°F) reading at Los Angeles on February 9, 1944. According to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the hottest station on Thursday was Cauquenes, which hit 45.0°C (113°F). The margin by which the old record national heat record was smashed: 3.6°C (6.1°F), was extraordinary, and was the second largest such difference Herrera has cataloged (the largest: a 3.8°C margin in New Zealand in 1973, from 38.6°C to 42.4°C.) Herrera cautioned, though, that the extraordinary high temperatures on Thursday in Chile could have been due, in part, to the effects of the severe wildfires burning near the hottest areas, and the new record will need to be verified by the weather service of Chile.


Figure 1. Fires (red squares) in Chile spread smoke over the Pacific Ocean, as seen at 10:35 am EST Thursday January 26, 2017. This MODIS image is from NASA’s Terra satellite.

Here are some of the high temperatures from January 26 in Chile:

Maule Region (near the area affected by wildfires):

Cauquenes, 45.0°C
Coronel de Maule, 41.8°C
Los Despachos, 42.8°C
Santa Sofia, 43.1°C
Sauzal, 41.8°C

Maule Region (outside the area affected by wildfires):

Linares, 41.8°C
Longavi Sur, 42.3°C
Parral, 40.8°C

Bio Bio Region (near the area affected by wildfires):

Bulnes, 42.5°C
Quillon, 44.9°C
Ninhue, 43.0°C

Bio Bio Region (outside the area affected by wildfires):

Portezuelo, 41.2°C
Chillan, 41.4°C (DMC station)
Chillán Quinchamalí, 43.0°C
San Nicolas, 41.1°C
Los Angeles Maria Dolores Airport, 42.2°C


Figure 2. Smoke settles over Santiago, Chile on January 20, 2017. Chile has endured weeks of extreme heat that has smashed numerous heat records, with Pudahuel Airport in western Santiago on January 20 hitting the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Santiago metropolitan area: 37.7°C (99.9°F). Santiago Observatory (with records back to 1866) set its all-time heat record on January 25, 2017 with 37.4°C, and Quinta Normal Observatory broke its all-time heat record in December 2016, with a reading of 37.3°C, beating a record that had stood 101 years. Image credit: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images.

Record heat and extreme drought lead to deadly Chile wildfires
Record heat and extreme drought in Chile are contributing to their worst wildfires in decades. On Thursday, the entire town of Santa Olga was destroyed by fire, with more than 1,000 building consumed including schools, nurseries, shops and a post office. As reported in The Guardian, Carlos Valenzuela, the mayor of the region, said: “Nobody can imagine what happened in Santa Olga. What we have experienced here is literally like Dante’s Inferno.” Authorities declared a state of emergency in Chile due to wildfires on January 20, and as of January 26, more than 100 fires were burning throughout O’Higgins and Maule regions. At least ten people have been killed by the fires, including four firefighters and two policemen. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the fires had consumed 578,000 acres of land as of January 26, and damages to the timber industry alone were estimated at $40 million. Hot, dry weather with high temperatures in the 90s are expected to continue for the next week in the Santiago area.

Chile's ongoing megadrought partially attributed to human-caused climate change
Central Chile is enduring a decades-long megadrought that began in the late 1970s, with precipitation declines of about 7% per decade. According to a 2016 study by Boisier et al., "Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile", this drought is unprecedented in historical records. While at least half of the change in precipitation can be blamed on natural causes, primarily due to atmospheric circulation changes from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the authors estimated that a quarter of the rainfall deficit affecting this region since 2010 was due to human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

Heat Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From LA Times:

It's possible to 'vaccinate' Americans against fake news, experiment shows


Activists in New York rally to urge politicians to stand against climate change denial. (Don Emmert / AFP/Getty Images)

An overwhelming 97% of scientists agree that climate change is real and that human activity is responsible. But only 27% of U.S. adults realize there is such widespread agreement, according to a recent Pew Research Center report.

The scientific consensus on climate change gets diluted as the public sorts between real news and fake news, facts and alternative facts. Misinformation can spread like a virus.

But just like a virus, it may be possible to “vaccinate” people against the effects of fake news, according to a new study in the journal Global Challenges.

“There’s phony arguments out there, but when you alert people to who’s putting them out and why, it may dampen their impact,” said Riley Dunlap, an environmental sociologist at Oklahoma State University who was not involved with the study.

In the study, a team of researchers led by University of Cambridge social psychologist Sander van der Linden tested this idea by giving people a simple warning about the existence of misinformation regarding climate change. They predicted that the warning would work by “pre-bunking” the false information that may come someone’s way (rather than debunking it afterward).

For their experiment, the researchers designed an online survey to gauge people’s attitudes toward climate change. In the process, some of the 2,000 respondents were exposed to fake news, and some were also exposed to a fake news “vaccine.” To disguise the researchers’ motives, subjects were told they would be randomly asked about one of 20 different topics in the news.

The researchers’ main interest was people’s estimates of the proportion of scientists that agreed man-made climate change exists. The subjects answered the same question at the beginning and end of the study so researchers could see how fake news and the vaccine shifted their views.

At the outset of the survey, the participants estimated that 70% of scientists, on average, were in agreement about man-made climate change.

During the survey, some people were shown a simple pie chart that said “97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening.” By the time these subjects got to the end of the survey, their estimate of the extent of the scientific consensus increased to 90%, on average — an increase of 20 percentage
points.

Now for the fake news.

Some subjects who saw the pie chart were later shown a screen shot of the Oregon Global Warming Petition Project. Its website falsely claims that scientists are unsure whether man-made carbon dioxide emissions will warm the planet, leading to catastrophic effects. Exposure to this counter-information nearly canceled out the factual statement, the researchers found. Those subjects’ consensus estimate decreased by half a percentage point, from about 73.5% to 73%.

However, if the fake petition was “pre-bunked” with a vaccine, subjects held on to their higher estimation of a scientific consensus.

[...]

This is not to say it’s a magic vaccine for everyone, but it seems to have some benefits,” Van der Linden said. “I’d imagine people who are deeply ideological … it won’t change their minds.”

[...]

Click here to read full article
Is there any monitoring record of the temperature of the cold current that upwells off the Chilean coast in non-El Nio years? I am wondering if such records could be used to estimate the changes in temperature of the bottom water around Antarctica that is the source of that current. Perhaps because of the importance of that current to the economy of the Western South American coast countries such records may exist.
The Human induced Global Warming from our continued use of fossil fuels to run our Global society continues,..

unabated.



Quoting 3. CaneFreeCR:

Is there any monitoring record of the temperature of the cold current that upwells off the Chilean coast in non-El Ni�o years? I am wondering if such records could be used to estimate the changes in temperature of the bottom water around Antarctica that is the source of that current. Perhaps because of the importance of that current to the economy of the Western South American coast countries such records may exist.


Look for fish catch records in that region since the upwelling is very highly correlated with biological productivity of those waters and the effect of the occasional warmings in that region on fishing has been known for centuries.

Antarctic bottom water is only now starting to change in salinity and temperature and the temperature changes are slight.. it's still very cold. THe western South America coastal water temperatures are driven by changes in upwelling and by changes in the depth of the thermocline which gets a LOT lower in El Nino years, not by changes in temperature of the Antarctic bottom water.

(So far! A new age is coming)
Thanks Dr.; I could not find a good/updated global drought map for South America to post but the NOAA global analysis for Dec 2016 reflects warm/heat records galore in South America and Africa as well as the North American ones we have been experiencing:





Thanks for the new entry, Dr. Masters:

I hope there will be an attribution study carried out soon, if possible, in order to determine whether anthropogenic global warming contributed to the current heat wave, extreme drought and wildfires in Chile or not, and if the answer is yes, to understand to what extent it did...

The current Mega Drought in Central Chile: Is the future now? (.pdf document, July 2015)
IAMAS (Meteorology), Session M13: Regional Climate Variability Change / Solicited Oral Presentation:
Annual precipitation deficits ranging from 30-70% have afflicted most of central Chile (west coast of South America, 30-40*S) for the last decade, most intensely from 2011 onwards, leading to an unprecedented drought in terms of intensity, spatial and temporal extent. The current 'Mega Drought' stands out not only in the historical record but also in precipitation and stream flow reconstructions for the last 1000 years.
(...) There is a strong suggestion that anthropogenic climate change is partially responsible for the present Mega Drought. Such effect is mostly dynamic, due to the decrease in the westerly winds impinging central Chile. We also note that model-based climate projections for the 21st century consistently indicate a marked drying trend over this region. (...)
What important plan radical or not could we as a country do now to stop or severely slow down the warming of the planet?
Stop burning fossil fuels..or the CO2 rise will continue.

We cannot burn what is left in the ground.

Period.

Also, the biggest joke in the local system is that on Planet Earth they dig up old carbon and burn it to run their planet,

when they have a Main Sequence Yellow Star just 93,000,000 miles away.


Silly Humans.


Quoting 8. frank727:

What important plan radical or not could we as a country do now to stop or severely slow down the warming of the planet?


The key step to accomplishing this is to quit voting for public policy makers that deny it is happening. That is step #1.
Quoting 8. frank727:

What important plan radical or not could we as a country do now to stop or severely slow down the warming of the planet?
Well, for starters, we could stop electing people who place their love of money over science, logic, and what's right.
Quoting 8. frank727:

What important plan radical or not could we as a country do now to stop or severely slow down the warming of the planet?

We should make it a national political and economic policy-priority to encourage US automakers to make more hybrid/electric cars, invest (infrastructure wise) in the manufacturing of solar panels/cells for use for electrical utility companies and domestic consumers, provide economic benefits to US based "green" companies that train and employ US workers, and generally try to move the US (and jobs) in a manufacturing direction towards a greener future; or we can just kick the can and keep buying solar panels and green cars from China and Asia and get left behind.................My personal opinion.
(reduce population so we don't need as much STUFF)

(sensible breeding, not some cataclysmic event that kills half of us- we just don't need to
have a basketball team's worth of young'ns)
The smoke looks like a volcanic eruption x 100
Thanks, Dr. Masters! Interesting that neither the old nor the new record was made anywhere near Atacama Desert.
Quoting 8. frank727:

What important plan radical or not could we as a country do now to stop or severely slow down the warming of the planet?

Keep it in the ground
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects, ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.

(Source, includes fertility rate by country)
Quoting 6. weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr.; I could not find a good/updated global drought map for South America to post but the NOAA global analysis for Dec 2016 reflects warm/heat records galore in South America and Africa as well as the North American ones we have been experiencing:

Wmw, your pic doesn't show up, at least for me.

Here two maps with the anomalies/percentages of precipitation in South America in the last six months. The lack of rain in that part of Chile is decent (red and/or brown colors):





Source: NOAA's site SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER AND CLIMATE
There is lot of money to be made around the world (and in the US) in terms of manufacture, and employment, in moving us towards a renewable energy, and fossil fuel independence, future but you have to be bold and make it a priority. You would be an idiot not to see the writing on the wall because fossil fuels (coal/oil) are finite resources which are going to run out and which we know are harming the planet through Co2 emissions. China is already ahead of the curve because they are not only leading manufacturers (often as the result of industrial espionage and intellectual property theft related to US companies) of solar panels and wind turbine technology but because they have established international agreements to mine (particularly in Africa and in the Middle East) many of the valuable minerals (such as silicon and copper) which are critical components in the manufacturing process related to green energy production. The US has the same ability as China but we have been in the political grip, and lobbying control, of the major US oil producers for the past several decades with no end in sight per current events.

If the possibility exists, that the US is going to offend many of the industrialized nations in the world through offensive positions such as pulling out of the Paris Treaty (or worse), and we are going to go into an isolationist phase (disregarding the inextricable nature of the current global economy) over the next several years, then we need to be prepared to be "self-sufficient" while employing Americans at the same time in order to weather such a storm and our economy moving again................This would be the perfect time for us to go green and try to become the world leader in renewable self-sustaining energy production (rather that continue in the grip of fossil fuel interests at the top making money and keeping the little people like ourselves in an intentional divisive posture).
Just added this section to the blog:

Chile's ongoing megadrought partially attributed to human-caused climate change
Central Chile is enduring a decades-long megadrought that began in the late 1970s, with precipitation declines of about 7% per decade. According to a 2016 study by Boisier et al., "Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile", this drought is unprecedented in historical records. While at least half of the change in precipitation can be blamed on natural causes, primarily due to atmospheric circulation changes from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the authors estimated that a quarter of the rainfall deficit affecting this region since 2010 was due to human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters
# 21

Dat's all nice but How is we gonna move ahead wit dat, when we have a Exxon Man as Sec of State.. ?

Quoting 23. Patrap:

Dats all nice but How wees gons moves ahead wit dat, when we have a Exxon Man as Sec of State.. ?



"Maybe instead of looking for the solution from the top down it comes from a push up?
All of us can do things locally. Push for parks and green areas in our towns and cities, if you have a job that can be done at home then push your employer to allow those that can work from home to do so once a week, as Aqua points out, grow your own veggies, take a bus, encourage bike paths and bike shares, recycle... the list goes on."

Edit, messed up the reply so I put quotes around what I said vs what Pat said
I believe this system might be a little stronger then expected, but at least it will remain "offshore". Its tightening up really nicely in the last hours. Lets see what the new advisory says.









We do all those things here at Home, and NOLA has great Transportation,public,..and bike lanes on almost all city streets now.

I grow all my summer veggies here at Home,.but the CO2 burning 24//7//365 Globally overpower all these personal trends by a factor of trillions.


We have to change fast GLOBALLY, or the future is extremely grim.


Dec 2016 CO2 was 404.48ppm




Latest climate related selection from "The Hill":

GOP lines up resolutions to undo coal, methane rules
By Devin Henry - 01/27/17 12:04 PM EST

New wave of anti-evolution bills hit states
By Reid Wilson - 01/27/17 11:48 AM EST

Climate change raises the stakes for affordable health care coverage
By Dr. Richard Allen Williams and Dr. Elena Rios - 01/27/17 11:45 AM EST
Time to Wake Up: What is Scott Pruitt Hiding?

Published on Jan 25, 2017

In this week's "Time to Wake Up" speech, Sen. Whitehouse discusses EPA nominee Scott Pruitt.

Please use Fahrenheit Numbers...
I remember the words Gus Grissom stated a few weeks before the fire...,when asked about Spaceflight safety.

.."Hey, we know our Job is risky, But the conquest of space is worth the risk of life.'..

50 years ago this evening they lost their lives serving the Nation, Grissom,White and Chaffee.

You are not forgotten.

Jan. 27, 2017
Apollo 1 Crew Honored



Quoting 23. Patrap:

# 21

Dat's all nice but How is we gonna move ahead wit dat, when we have a Exxon Man as Sec of State.. ?




I know my friend; like I said a few days ago, this is a huge train wreck in the making....................
Quoting 29. bryanfromkyleTX:

Please use Fahrenheit Numbers...

Here is a good converter:
http://www.rapidtables.com/convert/temperature/ce lsius-to-fahrenheit.htm
Quoting 9. Patrap:

Stop burning fossil fuels..or the CO2 rise will continue.

We cannot burn what is left in the ground.

Period.




A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?
I just had a 10Kw solar panel array installed on my roof, vastly reducing my dependence on fossil fuel. The second generation Powerwall battery system comes next, and will serve as a backup, draw energy from the solar array and, of course, provide some power when the grid is down.

I'm only one person, but every little bit helps.
I can't just put the blame on one person like a Exxon man that has a record with big oil, or blame our current or past administration. This is why we still have this problem with global warming. The past administrations haven't rectified our current problem otherwise our planet wouldn't be still warming. I think we all need to firmly discuss all plans from both side of the aisles and stop blaming others for our problem. We all need to rationally discuss positive measures for solutions on the problem on global warming. We have to stop blaming one side as the problem as both sides have been wrong.
Quoting 26. Patrap:

We do all those things here at Home, and NOLA has great Transportation,public,..and bike lanes on almost all city streets now.

I grow all my summer veggies here at Home,.but the CO2 burning 24//7//365 Globally overpower all these personal trends by a factor of trillions.


We have to change fast GLOBALLY, or the future is extremely grim.


Dec 2016 CO2 was 404.48ppm







I still struggle to see how we make this happen. It not like we can just get a law passed saying you cant drive unless you own an electric vehicle.
Maybe we should invest money in those that are inventing ways to remove and clean CO2 from the air and waters?
Getting people off oil and working to remove CO2 that we have can be done simultaneously.
Quoting 24. justmehouston:



Push for tram, subway and/or electrified commuter rail systems... that's what I'd say is most important at local scale (in cities with metropolitan population above 100,000, or so), to reduce particulate pollution. And also CO2 emissions, if one believes that locally coordinated reductions result in reductions of global emission levels...
Quoting 33. PaulSweet:



A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?


See # 34..and google those good questions as well.

It has been rehashed here a 1000 times.


We all want the future to be better for the next generation, and their offspring who will inherit our bad decisions for centuries
NOLA recently expanded the streetcar line down N. Rampart St. to the Marigny and it enhances tourism, and eases traffic problems too.


LOUISIANA POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
All aboard: North Rampart St. Claude streetcar line opens Oct. 2
Thanks for the update! More and more record highs around the world! I'm thinking Mother Earth can and will take care of herself but we and future generations won't be around to see it happen. If we don't get it together, we will be long gone before she completes this task.
Quoting 33. PaulSweet:



A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?


In keeping with examples in our own history of making it a national priority (the spin up of America to join the fight in WWII against Nazi Germany and the 10 year effort to put Americans on the moon before 1970), we can do it in less if we have the political will and the right "stuff" in terms of the Leadership; we will fail miserably if we do not make the effort at all.
Quoting 10. Patrap:

Also, the biggest joke in the local system is that on Planet Earth they dig up old carbon and burn it to run their planet,

when they have a Main Sequence Yellow Star just 93,000,000 miles away.


Silly Humans.





Yup....Human thought process is quite lacking in some areas. WE need to get on the ball!
Quoting 39. Patrap:

NOLA recently expanded the streetcar line down N. Rampart St. to the Marigny and it enhances tourism, and eases traffic problems too.


LOUISIANA POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
All aboard: North Rampart St. Claude streetcar line opens Oct. 2



Now we just need to get all those tourists there without adding CO2.
I know that there are many buses that go in to LA ...mainly for the gambling.
Report: Texas bullet train, Dallas-area rail line among Trump's transportation priorities.

A privately funded bullet train between Dallas and Houston and a passenger rail line in North Texas are among a litany of transportation projects considered priorities by President Donald Trump’s transition team, according to The Kansas City Star.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/01/24/report-te xas-bullet-train-among-new-federal-transp/
Quoting 33. PaulSweet:



A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?


We went from the first manned flight in a heavier than air craft to landing a man on the moon in less than 70 years. The U.S. went from a near non existent space program to landing a man on the moon in less than 10 years. Don't tell me that it cannot be done. That is not only a defeatist attitude, it is a cop-out.
Quoting 44. frank727:

Report: Texas bullet train, Dallas-area rail line among Trump's transportation priorities.

A privately funded bullet train between Dallas and Houston and a passenger rail line in North Texas are among a litany of transportation projects considered priorities by President Donald Trump’s transition team, according to The Kansas City Star.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/01/24/report-te xas-bullet-train-among-new-federal-transp/


I love trains ...one of my favorite things in Europe.
Sitting there having coffee and watching the scenery go by ...saw many, may windmills.
Its a great way to see the country
Quoting 44. frank727:

Report: Texas bullet train, Dallas-area rail line among Trump's transportation priorities.

A privately funded bullet train between Dallas and Houston and a passenger rail line in North Texas are among a litany of transportation projects considered priorities by President Donald Trump’s transition team, according to The Kansas City Star.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/01/24/report-te xas-bullet-train-among-new-federal-transp/


I will give credit, as appropriate, when a good policy is put on the table. I am contrasting this item with Governor Rick Scott here in Florida a few years ago when he declined Federal Funding (ready to go from the Obama administration) to build a high speed rail train to the Orlando area which would have given thousands of Floridians work during the building process as a continuation of the "just say no" position at that time....................I suppose the "just say yes" rules are now in effect.............................
Quoting 45. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



We went from the first manned flight in a heavier than air craft to landing a man on the moon in less than 70 years. The U.S. went from a near non existent space program to landing a man on the moon in less than 10 years. Don't tell me that it cannot be done. That is not only a defeatist attitude, it is a cop-out.


Okay, without any politics ...how do you envision this being done? I really am curious as to ideas
Quoting 48. justmehouston:



Okay, without any politics ...how do you envision this being done? I really am curious as to ideas


You simply cannot make these inroads without involving politics. Individual efforts have some impact, but this a global situation that will require global efforts. There is always the first step to be made anytime that you wish to accomplish anything on a large scale. See post # 11. Unfortunately, we are still at step # 1
Quoting 49. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You simply cannot make these inroads without involving politics. Individual efforts have some impact, but this a global situation that will require global efforts. There is always the first step to be made anytime that you wish to accomplish anything on a large scale. See post # 11. Unfortunately, we are still at step # 1


Thank you for responding.
However the post that I quoted was referring to the US only .. I agree its a global problem. The post quoted was referencng the US going to the moon and the US entering WWII. Let's say that you just took office on 1/20 ...what would you do in the US and the US only to get us off fossil fuels

Edit ..not trying to give you a hard time. I really am interested in what people have to say about what we can do here in the US, in our borders only, about attacking this problem. Other countries have done things within their borders so I'm curious as to the ideals of what we can do within our borders.
Quoting 50. justmehouston:



Thank you for responding.
However the post that I quoted was referring to the US only .. I agree its a global problem. The post quoted was referencng the US going to the moon and the US entering WWII. Let's say that you just took office on 1/20 ...what would you do in the US and the US only to get us off fossil fuels


U.S. politics are as much involved in this as is the global politics. The U.S. does not make inroads on this if the public policy makers, even a minority of them, block the inroads that could be made.
My Wife and I have been a little cash-strapped the last several years putting the oldest daughter through college (about to go post-graduate in the Fall) and the youngest one about to go to college in 2 years, but as soon as we are finished (if I make it through the next 6 years or so), I fully intend to clear some land in the back of the house, build/make a nice big garden, and convert the house to as much solar as I can headed into retirement; and with a very secure perimeter around the property if things get really bad.........................
1000 of the world wealthiest people need to secretly start buying and stockpiling crude.
drive up the price to the point that no one can afford to buy it.
then sit back and watch how quickly human ingenuity finds a solution......
A couple of stories about California's EPIC precipitation during January and about the status of the 5 year drought and actually the drought map looks better than this story shows. Just hope it is not a temporary aberration.

Link

Link

Most current drought map

Quoting 29. bryanfromkyleTX:

Please use Fahrenheit Numbers...

This is a good site to bookmark. http://www.weather.gov/ama/conversions
We are also beginning to develop an electric and rail-based public transportation system.

YIT, VR Track and Pöyry to implement Tampere light rail project in Finland (railway-technology.com)
Quoting 14. aquak9:

(reduce population so we don't need as much STUFF)

(sensible breeding, not some cataclysmic event that kills half of us- we just don't need to
have a basketball team's worth of young'ns)

I don't usually stray topic-wise, but...yes, agreed. I think our entire immigration policy should be re-oriented around the issue of over-population. In the US and elsewhere, migration parity should be adopted, i.e. same number in must be balanced by same number out, per country. Thus no single country becomes an easy safety valve for countries that do not properly manage their population growth.
As well as climate change, tourist negligence and poor park management, the country’s timber and wood pulp industry may come under the spotlight. Biologists say plantations of non-indigenous forests, such as eucalyptus and pine, help to spread the fires more quickly.
Source: Guardian

Same problem here, at the home of the world's leading producer of glossy paper namely SAPPI, i.e. South African Pulp and Paper Industries".
Keeping these plantations is like nursing cancer. The named species are not only invasive but also acidifying and drying out the soil, suppressing Same problem here, at the home of the world's leading producer of glossy paper namely SAPPI, i.e. South African Pulp and Paper Industries".
Keeping these plantations is like nursing cancer. The named tree species are not only invasive but also acidifying and drying out the soil, suppressing the indigenous flora that might have conserved the moisture.

Double high at the surface in the west, with the high in the Great Basin dominating, which is creating "Santa Ana" winds across Baja and over the Gulf of California. Pacific systems are bumping into the wall of high pressure for the time being, but once again, that will change by about Thursday of next week when yet another siege of precip and winds will head into the West Coast. Peculiar disturbance continues to churn cyclonically at all levels in the ITCZ southeast of Hawaii. Looks most like a subtropical storm, but given its locale in the ITCZ, where's the cold air? Very odd, perhaps unclassifiable by current standards.
Quoting 50. justmehouston:



Thank you for responding.
However the post that I quoted was referring to the US only .. I agree its a global problem. The post quoted was referencng the US going to the moon and the US entering WWII. Let's say that you just took office on 1/20 ...what would you do in the US and the US only to get us off fossil fuels

Edit ..not trying to give you a hard time. I really am interested in what people have to say about what we can do here in the US, in our borders only, about attacking this problem. Other countries have done things within their borders so I'm curious as to the ideals of what we can do within our borders.
You would start by committing NOT to permit the Keystone or Dakota pipelines to be built; then work out how to enforce rules limiting and reducing coal fired power plant emissions; then overhaul the tax code to reduce tax breaks and benefits to coal, oil, and gas producers and to increase tax benefits for companies and individuals switching over to or developing alternative energy sources. But on an even larger scale, you would need to inspire people to make the necessary changes, and you would need to figure out (and provide funding for) ways to help people cope with the needed economic and structural changes. By which I mean, jobs will be created but jobs will also be lost, and the workers can't necessarily make the change from one to the other. That means training and aid. And lifestyles will have to change, because our lifestyle depends on relatively cheap fossil fuel, and if that goes away, our lifestyles will be fundamentally different. Which is what so many people fear and why so many people are in denial.

These are just a few first steps. I'm sure commenters here can add more
Quoting 29. bryanfromkyleTX:

Please use Fahrenheit Numbers...

The global standard is Celsius and Kelvin.
Hey, what a nice project for the new Admin to globalize the USofA! :P
Quoting 61. FLwolverine:

You would start by committing NOT to permit the Keystone or Dakota pipelines to be built


You do realize that this oil is flowing right now and will continue to flow without the pipeline. The only question is will it flow via pipeline or via rail...I bet the pipeline route will reduce CO2 from trains, but it puts drinking water in jeopardy. None of this is clear cut. I would abolish the extraction from oil sands altogether....
The History of Solar Energy [INFOGRAPHIC]

The sun offers an amazing source of power, putting out 3.8 x 1026 watts. At its upper atmosphere, the Earth takes in about 174 petawatts of solar radiation, reflecting about 30% back out into space. Humans have been trying to harness this energy into a usable source of power since ancient times. Check out the interesting history of solar energy below in this infographic.
Quoting 63. Greg01:



You do realize that this oil is flowing right now and will continue to flow without the pipeline. The only question is will it flow via pipeline or via rail...I bet the pipeline route will reduce CO2 from trains, but it puts drinking water in jeopardy. None of this is clear cut. I would abolish the extraction from oil sands altogether....


If only the pipeline was run above ground with a second wall to contain oil spills - like a double hull ship.

Running the pipe in a ten foot diameter concrete tube would be nice as that permits repair work to be done and could become nice bomb shelter.
Quoting 60. BayFog:


Double high at the surface in the west, with the high in the Great Basin dominating, which is creating "Santa Ana" winds across Baja and over the Gulf of California. Pacific systems are bumping into the wall of high pressure for the time being, but once again, that will change by about Thursday of next week when yet another siege of precip and winds will head into the West Coast. Peculiar disturbance continues to churn cyclonically at all levels in the ITCZ southeast of Hawaii. Looks most like a subtropical storm, but given its locale in the ITCZ, where's the cold air? Very odd, perhaps unclassifiable by current standards.


Blowing about 20-35 at my place in mountains San Diego County.
Quoting 63. Greg01:



You do realize that this oil is flowing right now and will continue to flow without the pipeline. The only question is will it flow via pipeline or via rail...I bet the pipeline route will reduce CO2 from trains, but it puts drinking water in jeopardy. None of this is clear cut. I would abolish the extraction from oil sands altogether....


Not in Trumps world.......he LOVES tar sand oil and "clean" coal. The air pollution might start looking like Bejing around some parts.
Weather Conditions For:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft.; Lat/Lon: 33.344/-116.732
Current Time: Jan 27 12:33 pm PST

27 Jan 12:20 pm 44 7 22 NE 14G23
27 Jan 12:10 pm 45 8 22 NE 14G25
27 Jan 12:00 pm 44 8 23 ENE 12G20
27 Jan 11:50 am 44 7 22 ENE 13G23
27 Jan 11:40 am 44 7 22 NE 15G25
27 Jan 11:30 am 43 8 23 NE 15G30
27 Jan 11:20 am 43 8 23 NE 20G33
27 Jan 11:10 am 42 8 24 NE 21G36

Out of our standard NE/ENE direction for Santa Ana Wind Events




Can someone who is familiar with these types of graphs please explain the purpose of ERA40 in the legend? (Like other requests, this is likely obvious to many of you)
Nice new infared images (2:00 PM EST) of the storm just off the Coast of Australia; look at all of that convection off the NE over those Pacific Islands trying to get sucked into the circulation. Thank God it is forecast to move "away" from them but they are still going to be flooded on their West Coast with buckets of rain on the way out as well as what is currently falling in the other Islands:





Quoting 18. LAbonbon:


Keep it in the ground

That would work until people start starving especially in remote places because they rely on Trains, Boats, Trucks, etc. to get them food and other necessities.
Quoting 50. justmehouston:



Thank you for responding.
However the post that I quoted was referring to the US only .. I agree its a global problem. The post quoted was referencng the US going to the moon and the US entering WWII. Let's say that you just took office on 1/20 ...what would you do in the US and the US only to get us off fossil fuels

Edit ..not trying to give you a hard time. I really am interested in what people have to say about what we can do here in the US, in our borders only, about attacking this problem. Other countries have done things within their borders so I'm curious as to the ideals of what we can do within our borders.


1. Remove incentives and subsidies for the development of new fossil fuel resources.
2. Gradually reduce incentives and subsidies on current fossil fuel resources.
3. Implement taxes/penalties (such as carbon taxes) that gradually increase over time for non-essential fossil fuel use and use the resulting funds received to plan and implement new renewable systems and infrastructure. Non-essential here would be defined as any use that has an economically viable alternative that does not utilize fossil fuels.
4. Free re-training/education programs and guaranteed jobs to employees who currently work in the fossil fuel industry (miners, drillers, etc.). Ideally this new talent would be applied to the development of renewable energy and infrastructure, but they would be free to pursue whatever fields they want.
5. Incentivise/subsidize the development and modernization of the electrical grid to better support distributed power systems/renewable energy, as well electrical vehicles.
6. Delete the agricultural lobbies so we can actually use a viable and sustainable method for ethanol production (such as using switchgrass on non-arable land). Using corn/sugar/etc. for ethanol is idiotic.
7. Optionally, actually utilize nuclear power:
a) Remove the ridiculous cost and overhead involved in planning new stations. A huge amount of the cost of nuclear power happens well before the first shovel strikes the ground.
b) Utilize MODERN reactor designs which are inherently safe (no power needed).
c) Re-fund thorium reactor research. There's enough thorium to power the planet for thousands of years. In addition, thorium based reactors can't meltdown (could possibly be used in interplanetary craft).
d) Remove the ban on breeder reactors so we're not throwing away most of the fuel and greatly reduce the amount of long term wastes. Side benefit: we can resupply our vanishing stocks of isotopes used for science and medical research

Increase taxes on the upper tier by a few percent and combine that with the gradual taxes/penalties/fines and you should have all the money necessary to tackle this head on.There's plenty to do, so there'd be no shortage of jobs and by retraining existing workers and giving them guaranteed jobs (assuming they perform well) you help alleviate the fear and anxiety that is associated with disruptive change.

The timeline for this would be about 20 years, the end of which would see all but few areas using completely renewable sources of energy.

Just off the top of my head.
Quoting 71. hotroddan:


That would work until people start starving especially in remote places because they rely on Trains, Boats, Trucks, etc. to get them food and other necessities.


No one said to go to such extremes. That makes no sense whatsoever. There are quite a few posts today discussing how to approach the problem in an effective and practical manner.
Xyrus2020
Those white spots popping up in the middle of the convective bursts in the loop below of TC3 are very cold cloud tops as the storm deepens into the the upper levels; always cool to see these storms spin clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere:






Quoting 71. hotroddan:


That would work until people start starving especially in remote places because they rely on Trains, Boats, Trucks, etc. to get them food and other necessities.



Ethanol based fuel is viable and renewable, IF done intelligently. Unfortunately the agricultural lobbies have tremendous influence so prevent ethanol production from being done intelligently. Instead they insist on using food stock like corn, which not only is a terrible source for ethanol but also acts to affect food prices. It's the worst of both worlds.

The intelligent way to produce ethanol is to use what is basically an easily harvestable weed and use non-arable land to grow it. Switchgrass is a leading candidate, but it won't make any ground with the lobbies in the way.

So yes, we can actually keep it in the ground. We CHOOSE not to.
Physicists might have made a mistake in claiming to have turned hydrogen into a metal, experts say
‘I don’t think the paper is convincing at all,’ one expert said

Andrew Griffin @_andrew_griffin 5 hours ago



snip' But other researchers have said that they don’t necessarily believe that it is a metal. The shininess may be something else entirely – like aluminium oxide, which is known to coat the diamonds that sit in the anvil and may become shiny under high pressure.

Scientists have also cast doubt on the amount of pressure that the paper claims to have pushed onto the hydrogen. The researchers didn’t take detailed enough measurements throughout the process and so it’s hard to se whether they were pushing as hard as they claimed onto the hydrogen.

Even before the paper was criticised, other researchers have criticised the lab’s approach and methods, arguing that it could lead to false positives.

Quoting 71. hotroddan:


That would work until people start starving especially in remote places because they rely on Trains, Boats, Trucks, etc. to get them food and other necessities.



Remote places? You mean metropolitan areas.
03R is really developing quickly. 14U/03S has gale force winds now in the southern quadrant and is almost TC ALFRED.
-------------------------------

South Of Diego Garcia
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located at 11.0S 74.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center, extending up to 350 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 11.0S 73.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 10.7S 73.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS 10.1S 73.0E - 20 knots (Depression Residuelle)

Additional Information
=====================
Last microwaves data available (F17 of 13:55 UTC) show that deep convection has remain near the center, but has however suffer from diurnal effect. According to last satellite imagery (METOP2 of 17:11 and METEOSAT7 of 17:30) deep convection has strengthen, thanks to the good upper level divergence within a rapid south-easterly divergent flow on the northeastern edge of the ridge., but some signs of upper level constraint are visible.Upper level flow is forecast to strengthen easterly, and become less divergent. The center has been relocated thanks to the 17:07 UTC ASCAT data which shows winds about 30kt in the south-western part of the circulation.

The minimum tracks now slowly northwestward, under the concurrent effects of the the zonal monsoon flow in the north, and the ridge which keep up in the south, but begin to weaken Monday. All the numerical weather prediction track the low north-westwards slowly. On this track, environmental conditions are unfavorable. The llcc is going to evolve more on the northern edge of the upper level ridge and is experiencing a moderate to strong easterly wind shear. The low level polerward inflow should decrease with the arrival of a mid-latitude trough. Equatorial inflow is not very effective with a decreasing western zonal trans-equatorial flow.

The last deterministic model runs don't deepen the low but the small size of this circulation may help the intensity of this system to increase a little in the next hours before the environmental conditions become more unfavorable.

-------------------------------------------

Western Australia
At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 19.5S 116.4E or 145 km north northwest of Karratha and 245 km west northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

The tropical low lies over open waters to the north of Karratha and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The tropical low should strengthen and may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday afternoon.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 km/h are possible over the Pilbara coast between Port Hedland and Mardie Saturday morning. DAMAGING WINDS may extend to coastal parts between Mardie and Ningaloo during Saturday afternoon. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/hr are possible on the southern side during Saturday evening, but are unlikely over Barrow Island and nearby islands unless the system tracks further south and intensifies more quickly than forecast.

Squally thunderstorms are expected along Pilbara coast on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is likely across coastal parts of the west Kimberley and Pilbara. Flood Warnings are current for parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Tides will be higher than expected along the Pilbara coast on Saturday.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 20.2S 113.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.5S 111.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 21.2S 109.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 22.5S 106.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
====================
The center of the tropical low is estimated using a combination of surface wind observations and the Port Hedland and Dampier radars. Currently there appears to be multiple vorticies around a broader circulation. The previous low level center at 1500Z was revised due to a better fix at 1800Z.

DVORAK analysis was performed using a curved band pattern which gave a wrap of around 0.3. FT and CI is 2.0 and the system has developed over 24 hours. Intensity is set at 35 knots, however gales are not presently observed more than half way around the system.

The environment is generally favorable for development. Wind shear is not available from CIMSS but is estimated at 10 to 15 knots easterly from numerical weather guidance. There is abundant moisture feeding into this system and there are outflow channels evident, mainly to the north and southwest. The system is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours. The system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures in the next 24 hours which may hinder its development.

Recent motion has been 12 to 15 knots toward the west southwest, and the system is expected to continue to be steered quickly toward the west southwest by a mid-level ridge to the south. Numerical Weather Prediction guidance is tightly clustered about this solution, keeping the center of the system north of the Pilbara coast.

Winds and waves on the southern side will be enhanced due to the system's translation speed and ridge to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Port Hedland to Ningaloo, including Karratha
Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and nations..all these solutions are moot.

This is not the way it was supposed to be.

We all have been hoodwinked, for centuries.


Human thought has created every major problem our World has today, repeated over and over again for millennia, save for that now, we have the capability of destroying all life in a weekend.


Have a great weekend.




It's that time of the year in the Southern Tropics (peak summer period in the Southern Hemisphere):


Combined image of all basins
Quoting 78. nymore:



Remote places? You mean metropolitan areas.

Well I didn't word that comment well. What I meant to say is that we use fossil fuels to power transportation such as cargo ships, trains, and trucks so if we suddenly stopped producing these fuels then we wouldn't be able to get supplies to cold remote places (where crops don't grow well) and metropolitan areas. For example: most stuff is manufactured in cities but needs to be exported to rural locations which don't have factories; also the same goes for agriculture, while there are plenty of crops, livestock, etc. in rural locations there aren't many (if any) in metropolitan areas so, food needs to be imported.
Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:

It's that time of the year in the Southern Tropics (peak summer period in the Southern Hemisphere):




it's been very slow this year getting named systems out there, it feels like.

only had Abella, subtropical system Bransby, and Yvette.
Quoting 80. Patrap:

Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and nations..all these solutions are moot.

This is not the way it was supposed to be.

We all have been hoodwinked, for centuries.


Human thought has created every major problem our World has today, repeated over and over again for millennia, save for that now, we have the capability of destroying all life in a weekend.


Have a great weekend.






Disease is a major problem affecting all forms of life but, humans did not cause disease.
Quoting 34. BrooksvilleFl:

I just had a 10Kw solar panel array installed on my roof, vastly reducing my dependence on fossil fuel. The second generation Powerwall battery system comes next, and will serve as a backup, draw energy from the solar array and, of course, provide some power when the grid is down.

I'm only one person, but every little bit helps.

You have WU mail
Human thought has weaponized disease in many ways.



Specific diseases associated with biological weapons

Any infectious agents or toxic chemical could in theory be engineered for deliberate use as a weapon. Experts in this field believe that anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox and tularaemia are the pathogens most likely to be used.

Anthrax: A disease caused by a bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, it has existed for hundreds of years and still occurs naturally in both animals and humans in many parts of the world, including Asia, southern Europe, sub-Sahelian Africa and parts of Australia. There are three forms of anthrax in humans: cutaneous, ingestion and inhalational. For further information, see Anthrax.

Botulism: A rare but serious paralytic illness caused by a nerve toxin that is produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum. Botulism toxin can be inhaled or ingested via contaminated food or water. There are five clinical categories: 1) foodborne botulism; 2) wound botulism; 3) infant botulism; 4) adult infectious botulism; 5) inadvertent, following botulinum toxin injection. For further information, see Botulism.

Plague: An infectious disease of animals and humans caused by a bacterium, Yersinia pestis, which is transmitted between rodents by rodent fleas or to people through infected rodent flea bites. It can also be transmitted to humans through direct contact with infected animal tissue. There are three main forms of plague in humans: bubonic, septicaemic and pneumonic. For further information, see Plague.

Smallpox: An acute contagious disease caused by Variola virus, a member of the orthopoxvirus family. The global eradication of smallpox was certified in 1979, based on intense verification activities in countries. For further information, see Smallpox.

Tularaemia: A disease caused by the highly infectious bacterium Francisella tularensis. Within the species, there are two predominant subspecies: F. tularensis tularensis (type A), which is found in North America, is more virulent than F. tularensis palaearctica (type B), which occurs in Asia, Europe, and North America. Clinical manifestations depend on the route of entry and the virulence of the agent. There are six forms of tularaemia in humans: ulceroglandular, glandular, oropharyngeal, oculoglandular, respiratory and typhoidal. For further information, see Tularaemia.
Australia's coal power plan twice as costly as renewables route, report finds
Researcher says new coal plants aimed at reducing emissions would cost $62b, while the cost using renewables would be $24-$34bn

Quoting 84. hotroddan:


Disease is a major problem affecting all forms of life but, humans did not cause disease.


Pollution and lost habitat from human activity are also major problems affecting all forms of life. Don't try to push all the problems that life forms are facing off onto Mother nature.
Quoting 69. LAbonbon:





Can someone who is familiar with these types of graphs please explain the purpose of ERA40 in the legend? (Like other requests, this is likely obvious to many of you)


I think ERA40 is some sort of temperature data set. It seems, that in this graph, the term refers to the 1958-2002 average temperature, like DMI uses it. Kind of weird to include it in the graph, as it's automatically zero at each time, lol.

And... nah, the graph is actually misleading. 1) It's cumulative 2) It's too late. The tipping point happened already, around Dec 30, 2015. No temps below 247 K since then. The huge cumulative anomaly this year is a combination of the trend existing since late 2015, and two weather events last autumn. So, I'll vandalize the graphs from DMI:

A good late Friday post on the Science Mag cite; a word of advice for the Scientists planning the March on Washington:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/scie nce-march-planners-here-s-some-unsolicited-advice

Organizers are meeting this weekend to plan strategy, including a date for the march and its goals. Lubell, who has no affiliation with the organizers, offers them three pieces of advice.

Make it a march about science, not scientists.

“The women’s march encompassed a lot of issues, and that was one of its strengths,” he says. “There are several important issues that the march could emphasize, including the value of a sustained investment in basic research, the need to preserve data access, the importance of science and math education in training a globally competitive workforce, and the role of science and technology in economic development.” The idea of “alternative facts” is anathema to science, he adds. “Alternative facts don’t exist in science, he says, “and we should fight against any attempt to bend facts to meet someone’s ideology.”

A big tent has downsides, but that can be dealt with.

“There’s certainly a risk of being associated with people espousing radical causes,” he says about scientific organizations that worry about protecting their reputations. “But there’s a risk from remaining silent, too. You don’t have to agree with everything that is being said and done. And I think most people would agree that, in the current political climate, sitting on the sidelines isn’t a very effective strategy.”

Every scientist who attends should bring along a nonscientist.

“Scientists are seen as an elite group, and perhaps even part of the establishment that so many people voted against in November,” he says. “And that attitude will be reinforced if the marchers are mostly a bunch of academic researchers. It would be better, for example, if they brought along a high school science teacher, someone who’s seen as being closer to the community. Otherwise they run the risk of looking like they are simply advocating for their own self-interest. If it’s done correctly, it could be terrific.”

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.

We can do it easily.



Quoting 84. hotroddan:


Disease is a major problem affecting all forms of life but, humans did not cause disease.


And we better hope that the Earth doesn't find a way to just start life over on its own like its done many times in the past. Link

Big Five mass extinction events

Although the Cretaceous-Tertiary (or K-T) extinction event is the most well-known because it wiped out the dinosaurs, a series of other mass extinction events has occurred throughout the history of the Earth, some even more devastating than K-T. Mass extinctions are periods in Earth's history when abnormally large numbers of species die out simultaneously or within a limited time frame. The most severe occurred at the end of the Permian period when 96% of all species perished. This along with K-T are two of the Big Five mass extinctions, each of which wiped out at least half of all species. Many smaller scale mass extinctions have occurred, indeed the disappearance of many animals and plants at the hands of man in prehistoric, historic and modern times will eventually show up in the fossil record as mass extinctions. Discover more about Earth's major extinction events below.

Ordovician-Silurian mass extinction
The third largest extinction in Earth's history, the Ordovician-Silurian mass extinction had two peak dying times separated by hundreds of thousands of years. During the Ordovician, most life was in the sea, so it was sea creatures such as trilobites, brachiopods and graptolites that were drastically reduced in number.

Late Devonian mass extinction
Three quarters of all species on Earth died out in the Late Devonian mass extinction, though it may have been a series of extinctions over several million years, rather than a single event. Life in the shallow seas were the worst affected, and reefs took a hammering, not returning to their former glory until new types of coral evolved over 100 million years later.

Permian mass extinction
The Permian mass extinction has been nicknamed The Great Dying, since a staggering 96% of species died out. All life on Earth today is descended from the 4% of species that survived.

Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction
During the final 18 million years of the Triassic period, there were two or three phases of extinction whose combined effects created the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction event. Climate change, flood basalt eruptions and an asteroid impact have all been blamed for this loss of life.

Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction
The Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction - also known as the K/T extinction - is famed for the death of the dinosaurs. However, many other organisms perished at the end of the Cretaceous
including the ammonites, many flowering plants and the last of the pterosaurs.
Quoting 90. weathermanwannabe:

A good late Friday post on the Science Mag cite; a word of advice for the Scientists planning the March on Washington:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/scie nce-march-planners-here-s-some-unsolicited-advice


Science march planners, here is some unsolicited advice
Having a large group of science teachers from around the US, which would also be part of the speakers at podium, is an awesome idea and I am sure that hundreds, if not thousands, of science teachers from Middle and High Schools would love to attend and participate.

Dr. Masters; pull some strings and pass this advice along to your colleagues planning to march.
Quoting 91. Patrap:

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.

We can do it easily.






Oh, boy - a road trip!
Quoting 84. hotroddan:


Disease is a major problem affecting all forms of life but, humans did not cause disease.


No, humans have enhanced them. Through destruction of habitat, pollution, antibiotics, and even genetic manipulation the introduction of rapid changes into the environment forces these organisms to adapt at an equally rapid pace. Simpler life forms adapt much faster than more complex ones.

Hence, one of the dangers of climate change is disease. As carriers spread into areas where no natural predators are to keep them in check, diseases can spread quite rapidly. I'm not just talking about humans. I'm talking about general plant and animal life. All it takes is for one migrating species to become invasive. It could be a bacteria, a fungus, a rodent, etc. but what may be innocuous and harmless in one environment can be massively destructive in another. Plenty of examples of that happening.
Quoting 91. Patrap:

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.

We can do it easily.






Everyone can ride with me. :)
Quoting 84. hotroddan:


Disease is a major problem affecting all forms of life but, humans did not cause disease.

Lung cancer is a disease largely caused by humans. Type ii diabetes is a disease, largely caused by obesity. Many other pathologies are also linked to obesity. The pathologies of chronic lead poising are caused by humans ( lead in paint, gasoline, drinking water). Black lung is a disease caused by humans. Many pathologies are linked to a sedentary lifestyle. Starvation is within our power to prevent, be we choose not to. Rent or download "Erin Brockovich" tonight.
Quoting 91. Patrap:

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.

We can do it easily.




Pat, you have WU-Mail
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and enjoy the cooler temps across the South this weekend.

Quoting 74. OKsky:

Xyrus2020


I hope that's not an endorsement for president. :D

They couldn't pay me enough to take that job, even if I thought I was qualified for the position (which I'm not). And the only way I'd even consider taking the head of one of the major departments was if the other candidates for those positions were so abysmally terrible that I actually was the most qualified (that would be scary). My first action would be to find the most qualified individual I could, appoint them as deputy director, and then step down.

The upper positions of power should be held by the most qualified and most intelligent people we can find. I'm neither the most qualified nor the most intelligent. I'm under no delusions of grandeur, nor do I have any desire for power. :)
From Science by Vaughn Bell

A respected Swiss scientist, Conrad Gessner, might have been the first to raise the alarm about the effects of information overload. In a landmark book, he described how the modern world overwhelmed people with data and that this overabundance was both "confusing and harmful" to the mind. The media now echo his concerns with reports on the unprecedented risks of living in an "always on" digital environment. It's worth noting that Gessner, for his part, never once used e-mail and was completely ignorant about computers.

That's not because he was a technophobe but because he died in 1565.



Other blasts from the past.

Ridiculous the thought that mail should be delivered by train; do you know how many Pony Express jobs will be lost?

What's next? Now they want to introduce a thing called "dialing phones". Do you realize how many operators will lost their jobs?

With the advent of the automobile, people should consider how many blacksmiths will lose their jobs making horseshoes. Bad idea, very bad.

Television will destroy the radio industry putting tens of thousand out of work. Movies and theaters will close all over the country. It will be the end of an entire industry.

Oh, yeah! Having a computer on your desk, get real!!!!

What's all this about alternative energy? So we pollute the atmosphere; at least nobody loses their job.
Quoting 89. elioe:



I think ERA40 is some sort of temperature data set. It seems, that in this graph, the term refers to the 1958-2002 average temperature, like DMI uses it. Kind of weird to include it in the graph, as it's automatically zero at each time, lol.

And... nah, the graph is actually misleading. 1) It's cumulative 2) It's too late. The tipping point happened already, around Dec 30, 2015. No temps below 247 K since then. The huge cumulative anomaly this year is a combination of the trend existing since late 2015, and two weather events last autumn. So, I'll vandalize the graphs from DMI:




ERA-40 is a second gen reanalysis data product produced by ECMWF that contains numerous fields, including surface temperatures. The time span according to the site is 1957-2001.

The graph is a cumulative graph, and yes it is a little odd that they include it since they're all relative to the ERA-40 (hence, why the green line is at zero). But in a way it does kind of make a point. If the temps were "average" you'd see the lines wavering around zero. However, what we're seeing is a precipitous drop. The is specifically showing the "freeze season", and the graph is indicating that there is significantly less freezing going on in the arctic.
105. elioe
Quoting 104. Xyrus2000:

The is specifically showing the "freeze season", and the graph is indicating that there is significantly less freezing going on in the arctic.


That depends on the heat transfer coefficient through the ice. Like how fractured the ice is. Or how evenly is the thickness distributed. I'm not going to learn how to read raw 32-bit files, and I guess we would anyway have to see January figures to see, if the continuously above-average temperatures have translated to below-average ice volume growth.
Latest glacier mass balance data
World Glacier Monitoring Service (last change 25/01/2017).

Figure 2: Mean cumulative mass balance of all reported glaciers (blue line) and the reference glaciers (red line).

NASA - Vital Signs of the Planet:
About Glaciers & Global Ice Viewer
Quoting 86. Patrap:

Human thought has weaponized disease in many ways.



Specific diseases associated with biological weapons

Any infectious agents or toxic chemical could in theory be engineered for deliberate use as a weapon. Experts in this field believe that anthrax, botulism, plague, smallpox and tularaemia are the pathogens most likely to be used.

Anthrax: A disease caused by a bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, it has existed for hundreds of years and still occurs naturally in both animals and humans in many parts of the world, including Asia, southern Europe, sub-Sahelian Africa and parts of Australia. There are three forms of anthrax in humans: cutaneous, ingestion and inhalational. For further information, see Anthrax.

Botulism: A rare but serious paralytic illness caused by a nerve toxin that is produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum. Botulism toxin can be inhaled or ingested via contaminated food or water. There are five clinical categories: 1) foodborne botulism; 2) wound botulism; 3) infant botulism; 4) adult infectious botulism; 5) inadvertent, following botulinum toxin injection. For further information, see Botulism.

Plague: An infectious disease of animals and humans caused by a bacterium, Yersinia pestis, which is transmitted between rodents by rodent fleas or to people through infected rodent flea bites. It can also be transmitted to humans through direct contact with infected animal tissue. There are three main forms of plague in humans: bubonic, septicaemic and pneumonic. For further information, see Plague.

Smallpox: An acute contagious disease caused by Variola virus, a member of the orthopoxvirus family. The global eradication of smallpox was certified in 1979, based on intense verification activities in countries. For further information, see Smallpox.

Tularaemia: A disease caused by the highly infectious bacterium Francisella tularensis. Within the species, there are two predominant subspecies: F. tularensis tularensis (type A), which is found in North America, is more virulent than F. tularensis palaearctica (type B), which occurs in Asia, Europe, and North America. Clinical manifestations depend on the route of entry and the virulence of the agent. There are six forms of tularaemia in humans: ulceroglandular, glandular, oropharyngeal, oculoglandular, respiratory and typhoidal. For further information, see Tularaemia.

Yes humans can use diseases as a weapon but we didn't create theses diseases. We use existing diseases as weapons.
"Squirrel's"
Quoting 103. Grothar:

From Science by Vaughn Bell

A respected Swiss scientist, Conrad Gessner, might have been the first to raise the alarm about the effects of information overload. In a landmark book, he described how the modern world overwhelmed people with data and that this overabundance was both "confusing and harmful" to the mind. The media now echo his concerns with reports on the unprecedented risks of living in an "always on" digital environment. It's worth noting that Gessner, for his part, never once used e-mail and was completely ignorant about computers.

That's not because he was a technophobe but because he died in 1565.



Other blasts from the past.

Ridiculous the thought that mail should be delivered by train; do you know how many Pony Express jobs will be lost?

What's next? Now they want to introduce a thing called "dialing phones". Do you realize how many operators will lost their jobs?

With the advent of the automobile, people should consider how many blacksmiths will lose their jobs making horseshoes. Bad idea, very bad.

Television will destroy the radio industry putting tens of thousand out of work. Movies and theaters will close all over the country. It will be the end of an entire industry.

Oh, yeah! Having a computer on your desk, get real!!!!

What's all this about alternative energy? So we pollute the atmosphere; at least nobody loses their job.


Grother,

I know you were there when he wrote his paper. I was there at the first reprint.

However, anyone that still believes might oughta check this website

https://www.tesla.com/careers/search#/
110. flsky
I'm in.

Quoting 91. Patrap:

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.

We can do it easily.




quote from Dr. Masters' entry:

"The margin by which the old record national heat record was smashed: 3.6C (6.1F),"

45.0C- 41.6C = 3.4C, which is is still big.
Patrap leading us at the march:
Katharine Hayhoe:
‏@KHayhoe

So naive, so deceived. Thinks a phd earth scientist makes more money working at a university than for an oil company :)

Full transparency: here's how I spent $1.1M, the biggest grant I ever got.

Quoting 103. Grothar:

From Science by Vaughn Bell

A respected Swiss scientist, Conrad Gessner, might have been the first to raise the alarm about the effects of information overload. In a landmark book, he described how the modern world overwhelmed people with data and that this overabundance was both "confusing and harmful" to the mind. The media now echo his concerns with reports on the unprecedented risks of living in an "always on" digital environment. It's worth noting that Gessner, for his part, never once used e-mail and was completely ignorant about computers.

That's not because he was a technophobe but because he died in 1565.



Other blasts from the past.

Ridiculous the thought that mail should be delivered by train; do you know how many Pony Express jobs will be lost?

What's next? Now they want to introduce a thing called "dialing phones". Do you realize how many operators will lost their jobs?

With the advent of the automobile, people should consider how many blacksmiths will lose their jobs making horseshoes. Bad idea, very bad.

Television will destroy the radio industry putting tens of thousand out of work. Movies and theaters will close all over the country. It will be the end of an entire industry.

Oh, yeah! Having a computer on your desk, get real!!!!

What's all this about alternative energy? So we pollute the atmosphere; at least nobody loses their job.


I really do not have a problem with information overload. I long ago learned that the best way for me to multi-task is to concentrate on one thing at a time. ;)
Quoting 89. elioe:



I think ERA40 is some sort of temperature data set. It seems, that in this graph, the term refers to the 1958-2002 average temperature, like DMI uses it. Kind of weird to include it in the graph, as it's automatically zero at each time, lol.

And... nah, the graph is actually misleading. 1) It's cumulative 2) It's too late. The tipping point happened already, around Dec 30, 2015. No temps below 247 K since then. The huge cumulative anomaly this year is a combination of the trend existing since late 2015, and two weather events last autumn. So, I'll vandalize the graphs from DMI:



Thanks, elioe for helping me understand. Note - your DMI link is to the imgur image, not DMI.
Never forget! Never again!

Quoting 104. Xyrus2000:



ERA-40 is a second gen reanalysis data product produced by ECMWF that contains numerous fields, including surface temperatures. The time span according to the site is 1957-2001.

The graph is a cumulative graph, and yes it is a little odd that they include it since they're all relative to the ERA-40 (hence, why the green line is at zero). But in a way it does kind of make a point. If the temps were "average" you'd see the lines wavering around zero. However, what we're seeing is a precipitous drop. The is specifically showing the "freeze season", and the graph is indicating that there is significantly less freezing going on in the arctic.

"hence, why the green line is at zero"

Ahh, that explains sooo much. Can't see this on my screen for some reason. (After turning the screen brightness up to 'blinding', I can see a bit of green, but it's not obvious.) Thanks for helping :)
Quoting 74. OKsky:
Xyrus2020

Wow, so I wasn't the only one thinking that?

I also dreamed that Paul Ryan became president after a coupla things happened....
Quoting 118. aquak9:


Wow, so I wasn't the only one thinking that?

I also dreamed that Paul Ryan became president after a coupla things happened....


I just want to go back to the day that I was born and to start over, still knowing what I know now. Perhaps then 2017 would not look so frightening to me?
The Maule River where the worst of the fires were was also the southern boundary of the Inca Empire. The Maule was (and is) a sort of ecological boundary---the semi-arid Mediterranean climate to the north and a more humid oceanic forested zone to the south. For more than 40 years before the Spanish conquest, the Incas kept the Maule River as a border and did not try to push further south.

Talca, inland just north of the the Maule River.

Climate of Constitución, Chile at the mouth of the Maule River.
Quoting 115. LAbonbon:


Thanks, elioe for helping me understand. Note - your DMI link is to the imgur image, not DMI.

DMI - Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic

Quoting 99. ACSeattle:


Lung cancer is a disease largely caused by humans. Type ii diabetes is a disease, largely caused by obesity. Many other pathologies are also linked to obesity. The pathologies of chronic lead poising are caused by humans ( lead in paint, gasoline, drinking water). Black lung is a disease caused by humans. Many pathologies are linked to a sedentary lifestyle. Starvation is within our power to prevent, be we choose not to. Rent or download "Erin Brockovich" tonight.



Indeed.

Babcox and Wilcox Killed my Dad
By: Patrap , 12:25 PM CDT on September 21, 2009

Is anyone else thinking about buying a Badlands National Park t-shirt? I mean, cause of all the alt_ Twitter feeds, really it was Badlands who started it.
Anyone?
124. elioe
Quoting 115. LAbonbon:


Thanks, elioe for helping me understand. Note - your DMI link is to the imgur image, not DMI.


Thanks, I corrected.
From Grist:

"I WOULD BUILD A GREAT WALL"

There’s an environmental argument against Trump’s border wall, too. After President Trump signed an executive order to advance plans for a wall along the border with Mexico, architects, conservationists, and environmental activists protested that it would do little to stop migrants from crossing the border but would create lasting problems for animals and the land. And don’t forget the people.

A nearly 60-foot high concrete wall would make traveling to eat, drink, and mate more difficult for black bears, ocelots, and other species that live along the border, according to scientists and wildlife advocates. The energy-intensive process of producing cement to hold the concrete together adds to the environmental damage. Globally, the cement industry accounts for 5 percent of CO2 emissions.

Green groups also argue that tackling climate change would be a better way to curb the flow of refugees around the world. “If President Trump was as concerned about our nation’s true national security issues, he would be tackling climate change head-on while safeguarding refugees and immigrants from the worst impacts of a warming planet,” said League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski in a statement.

It could be tough for environmentalists to block the wall in the courts. An act passed in 2005 made it easier for the federal government to bypass local environmental laws in the name of national security.


--------------------

Quoting 125. Xandra:

From Grist:

"I WOULD BUILD A GREAT WALL"

There’s an environmental argument against Trump’s border wall, too. After President Trump signed an executive order to advance plans for a wall along the border with Mexico, architects, conservationists, and environmental activists protested that it would do little to stop migrants from crossing the border but would create lasting problems for animals and the land. And don’t forget the people.

A nearly 60-foot high concrete wall would make traveling to eat, drink, and mate more difficult for black bears, ocelots, and other species that live along the border, according to scientists and wildlife advocates. The energy-intensive process of producing cement to hold the concrete together adds to the environmental damage. Globally, the cement industry accounts for 5 percent of CO2 emissions.

Green groups also argue that tackling climate change would be a better way to curb the flow of refugees around the world. “If President Trump was as concerned about our nation’s true national security issues, he would be tackling climate change head-on while safeguarding refugees and immigrants from the worst impacts of a warming planet,” said League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski in a statement.

It could be tough for environmentalists to block the wall in the courts. An act passed in 2005 made it easier for the federal government to bypass local environmental laws in the name of national security.


--------------------




You know.

If I were the president of Mexico, I would send a note and ask,

"So how high do you want that wall? We have arranged to have the Russians and Chinese build it for you. Is there going to be any other on going cost?

Just need to know so I can set the lease terms for the new Russian naval base in Ciudad del Carmen and the new Chinese Naval base in and the Chinese Naval base and satellite launch facilities in Puerto San Carlos.

Just askin'"

Cheers
Qazulight
I remember the words Gus Grissom stated a few weeks before the fire...,when asked about Spaceflight safety.

.."Hey, we know our Job is risky, But the conquest of space is worth the risk of life.'..

50 years ago this evening they lost their lives serving the Nation, Grissom,White and Chaffee.

You are not forgotten.

Jan. 27, 2017
Apollo 1 Crew Honored



Quoting 69. LAbonbon:





Can someone who is familiar with these types of graphs please explain the purpose of ERA40 in the legend? (Like other requests, this is likely obvious to many of you)


From The 2016/2017 freezing season blog here are the actual numbers:

Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Jan 26, 2017:
Climatology:.2899.4
2017:................1683.9
Anomaly:......-1215.4



Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo: 1.688 m
2017: 1.225 m

Per Billelo
Climo: 1.355 m
2017: 0.989 m


Note: Anyone claiming a "recovery" in extent is ignoring new ice thickness this year is 27% less than climatology and 10 to 15% less than the average of the past decade. The accumulated FDD anomaly is now greater than at *any* time in the DMI N80 dataset with 40% of the freezing season still to go.
Aaah, finally, MIMIC-TC is available. I tried to get it a few hours ago, but without success.

Source
I've not seen this mentioned amidst all the other conversation but I find the feature that dug south out of Canada now to the SD/NE border quite fascinating.

Static loop

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
Storm Warning
TROPICAL LOW 14U
9:03 AM WST January 28 2017
==================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 20.0S 114.9E or 220 km west northwest of Karratha and 230 km north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant


The tropical low lies to the northwest of Karratha and should continue tracking west southwest today. By this evening the system will likely be over open waters to the northwest of Exmouth and moving away from the Western Australia mainland. The tropical low should strengthen and may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday afternoon or evening.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 km/h are possible over the Pilbara coast between Roebourne and Ningaloo on Saturday morning and then contracting to coastal parts between Onslow and Ningaloo during Saturday afternoon and evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are possible on the southern side of the system during Saturday evening, but the risk of experiencing these winds over coastal parts of the Pilabara has now passed.

Squally thunderstorms are expected along Pilbara coast throughout Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is likely across coastal parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara. Flood Warnings are current for parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Tides will be higher than expected along the Pilbara coast on Saturday.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.4S 112.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.5S 111.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 21.1S 107.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 22.5S 104.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
==================
The center of the tropical low is estimated using a combination the Port Hedland and Dampier radars along with surface wind observations.

There appears to be multiple weak vorticies around a broader circulation.

DVORAK analysis was performed using a curved band pattern which gave a wrap of around 0.4. The system has been assessed as standard development [D] over the last 24hrs so the MET is 2.5, but it restricted by the PAT. FT and CI is 2.0.

Intensity is set at 45 knots and this is confirmed by several mean wind observations of 40-45 knots at Barrow Island and also other locations just offshore of the Pilbara coastline. Although those winds are likely to be only limited to the southern side of the system due to the fast translation speed to the west southwest and also an increased pressure gradient between the system and a high pressure system over central Australia.

The environment is generally favorable for development. Wind shear from CIMSS is easterly 10 to 15 knots and also similar results from other numerical weather guidance. There is abundant moisture feeding into this system and there are outflow channels evident, mainly to the north. The system is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours. The system is then expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures in the next 24-36 hours which may further hinder its development.

Numerical Weather Prediction guidance remains consistent keeping the tracks and speed of the system clustered about the current forecast solution. Recent motion has been relatively fast, around 15 knots toward the west southwest, and the system is expected to continue in this direction as it is under the influence of a strong mid-level ridge to the south.

Winds and waves on the southern side will be enhanced due to the system's translation speed and ridge to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Roebourne to Ningaloo, including Karratha and Exmouth

The TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is CANCELLED for parts of the Western Australia region from Whim Creek to Roebourne
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Near Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20162017
4:00 AM RET January 28 2017
=================================
South Of Diego Garcia

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.6S 73.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 10.5S 73.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 10.5S 73.2E - 25 knots (Disturbance Tropicale)
48 HRS 10.5S 72.4E - 20 knots (Depression Residuelle)

Additional Information
=====================
Last microwaves data available (F15 of 21:28 UTC) show that deep convection has remain near the center, but with a center on the eastern edge of convection. According to last satellite imagery (NOAA19 of 22:54 and METEOSAT7 of 0:00) deep convection has continued strengthening, thanks to the good upper level divergence within a rapid southeasterly divergent flow on the northeastern edge of the ridge. Signs of upper level constraint are temporarily not yet visible.Upper level flow is forecast to strengthen easterly, and become less divergent.

The minimum tracks now slowly northwestward, under the concurrent effects of the the zonal monsoon flow in the north, and the ridge which keep up in the south, but begin to weaken on Sunday. All the numerical weather prediction track the low northwestwards slowly. On this track, environmental conditions are unfavorable with dry air located west of the system. The low level circulation center is also going to evolve more on the northern edge of the upper level ridge and is experiencing a moderate to strong easterly wind shear. The low level poleward inflow should decrease with the arrival of a mid-latitude trough. Equatorial inflow is not very effective with a decreasing western zonal trans-equatorial flow.

The last deterministic model runs don't deepen the low but the small size of this circulation may help the intensity of this system to maintain a little in the next hours before the environmental conditions become more unfavorable.
Quoting 126. Qazulight:



You know.

If I were the president of Mexico, I would send a note and ask,

"So how high do you want that wall? We have arranged to have the Russians and Chinese build it for you. Is there going to be any other on going cost?

Just need to know so I can set the lease terms for the new Russian naval base in Ciudad del Carmen and the new Chinese Naval base in and the Chinese Naval base and satellite launch facilities in Puerto San Carlos.

Just askin'"

Cheers
Qazulight

Morning Joe
‏@Morning_Joe

Fmr. Mexican President @VicenteFoxQue to Trump: Please grow up

Quoting 105. elioe:


The answer - with very little time left in January - would be yes, at least according to HERE.


Mesothelioma and black lung were already mentioned. And seeing as there inexplicably appears to be a mid-1900s argument going on about the need for the EPA, it seems pertinent to acknowledge there are many environmental contaminants that have caused, and continue to cause, disease. Short list:

Mercury - Minamata disease
Nitrates/Atrazine - methemoglobinemia (blue-baby syndrome), birth defects, as well as suspected cancers
Chromium
Cadmium
Fuels
VOCs
Chlorinated solvents
Arsenic
Other metals
Other pesticides/herbicides
Asthma, lung conditions due to poor air quality

And the list goes on...
138. bwi
Starting 2nd week of vacation cycling across Costa Rica. Awesome country with nice people and amazing wildlife. Got some photos from bus of hurricane Otto flood damage near tenorio volcano national park. About a dozen people died I think from flash flooding. Their worst tropical storm in anyone's memory here I think.
Quoting 138. bwi:

Starting 2nd week of vacation cycling across Costa Rica. Awesome country with nice people and amazing wildlife. Got some photos from bus of hurricane Otto flood damage near tenorio volcano national park. About a dozen people died I think from flash flooding. Their worst tropical storm in anyone's memory here I think.

Sounds like a wonderful trip! You left out a weather update though ;)
Can someone please direct me to a good weather blog like this one use to be, strictly a weather site please
Quoting 140. 24lowcountrystorm:

Can someone please direct me to a good weather blog like this one use to be, strictly a weather site please


...what?
Quoting 91. Patrap:

I'm willing to form a wunderground group to attend the march.
We can do it easily.


I'd love to get my 91-year old mom there, somehow.
Blogging kinda includes typing and words, which usually come from people's opinions. You know, like "It's hot today and gonna get hotter tomorrow because..." or like "It's probably gonna rain tomorrow because...".

So if you don't want opinions about the weather, then maybe you should just look at numbers, like weather data. Maybe you'd find a weather station to be more of what you need. Accurites are available at Sam's Clubs for under a hundred; a WeatherHawk can run ya three grand or more.

Not being sarcastic! But blogging, well, a weather blog is going to have smart people talking about science stuff. Kinda goes hand-in-hand.
Quoting 140. 24lowcountrystorm:

Can someone please direct me to a good weather blog like this one use to be, strictly a weather site please
Try Weatherbell. There you can get your weather along with a big dose of the climate change denial you seem to crave.
Quoting 60. BayFog:


Double high at the surface in the west, with the high in the Great Basin dominating, which is creating "Santa Ana" winds across Baja and over the Gulf of California. Pacific systems are bumping into the wall of high pressure for the time being, but once again, that will change by about Thursday of next week when yet another siege of precip and winds will head into the West Coast. Peculiar disturbance continues to churn cyclonically at all levels in the ITCZ southeast of Hawaii. Looks most like a subtropical storm, but given its locale in the ITCZ, where's the cold air? Very odd, perhaps unclassifiable by current standards.

This guy?


(Loop)
Quoting 144. spbloom:

Try Weatherbell. There you can get your weather along with a big dose of the climate change denial you seem to crave.


Climate change happens like clockwork in temperate regions of our planet 4 times a year. Honestly, I find it amazing how radical the climate swings between summer and winter. In my part of the world we are talking 100 degrees F in most cases.
Quoting 147. BuckStrider:



Climate change happens like clockwork in temperate regions of our planet 4 times a year. Honestly, I find it amazing how radical the climate swings between summer and winter. In my part of the world we are talking 100 degrees F in most cases.

"Climate change"? Don't you mean "seasonal change"?
Quoting 145. BuckStrider:

Oh noes! A 3rd world nation sets (some sort) of a 'record' when it comes to a temperature over a year. I'm sure that this totally beats the records of the last 100...1000....10,000....100,000 years and the next scare is that penguins are melting.


I thought they took yer tweeter away?

Are you well?

How was Philly?

Did they give you a Window seat on Air Force One?

How is Pence tonight?

: P
Quoting 147. BuckStrider:



Climate change happens like clockwork in temperate regions of our planet 4 times a year. Honestly, I find it amazing how radical the climate swings between summer and winter. In my part of the world we are talking 100 degrees F in most cases.


I see that you have made two observations.

1. During the course of Earth's annual journey around its sun the planet undergoes seasonal changes in the climate.

2. The closer you are to the polar regions the more pronounced these seasonal changes are and the closer you are to the equatorial region the less pronounced these seasonal changes are.

There is scientific information available to you as to why this is. You can start here
Climate is where we live.

Weather is what we eat.

(why do I even try, they're not gonna get it)
154. MahFL
Quoting 127. Patrap:

I remember the words Gus Grissom stated a few weeks before the fire...,when asked about Spaceflight safety.


One of our local schools was re-named Ed White in his honor.
155. MahFL
Quoting 130. StAugustineFL:

I've not seen this mentioned amidst all the other conversation but I find the feature that dug south out of Canada now to the SD/NE border quite fascinating.

Static loop




It's moving really fast too.

one week
157. MahFL
Quoting 156. PedleyCA:


one week


A nice improvement, more storms are due next week, right ?
Quoting 157. MahFL:



A nice improvement, more storms are due next week, right ?


Puny storm forecast end of next week...
Quoting 105. elioe:



That depends on the heat transfer coefficient through the ice. Like how fractured the ice is. Or how evenly is the thickness distributed. I'm not going to learn how to read raw 32-bit files, and I guess we would anyway have to see January figures to see, if the continuously above-average temperatures have translated to below-average ice volume growth.


You don't need to. PIOMAS (ice volume) already shows massive ice reduction, as would be expected from a massive reduction in cumulative freezing days. The graph is updated monthly, so only shows until last December, but as you can see ice volume is below 2 standard deviations from the long term average.



EDIT: In addition, the state of the arctic ice pack is, in a word, terrible. Most of the pack is now first year "slush" ice that simply melts out and lacks the cohesive strength of long term thick ice. What little remains of the multi-year ice is cracked, fragmented, and only exists in small segments of the arctic now.
Quoting 123. aquak9:

Is anyone else thinking about buying a Badlands National Park t-shirt? I mean, cause of all the alt_ Twitter feeds, really it was Badlands who started it.
Anyone?


I really like that park too... One of the places I have stopped at while driving to/from Alaska from Florida...
(deleted)
163. vis0

Quoting 74. OKsky:

Xyrus2020
if it was what i thought it would be 2021 if that do the announcement at the top of Trump Towers escalators.


Quoting 140. 24lowcountrystorm:
Can someone please direct me to a good weather blog like this one use to be, strictly a weather site please
Quoting 144. spbloom:

Try Weatherbell. There you can get your weather along with a big dose of the climate change denial you seem to crave.

That goes a bit too far IMO. You cannot accuse someone who simply doesn't like smalltalk and other off-topics to be a denialist.
165. vis0
Quoting 33. PaulSweet:


A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?

First this question was put forth 30 years ago as a stall tactic and look where it got us(ofA).

Imagination was the backbone of USofA.  Its why crazy thoughts in other countries or in the USofA that came to bear fruit in the USofA   That (American) desire to bring towards its shore all people with all their different thoughts, ideas as long as respect was what  one thought of first when seeing a human being whose appearance on the surface was not the same as yours, then all was okay.  Go ahead invent a picture-box where Niagra Falls fits into a glass screen no bigger than fishbowl, what?, bicycle builders will build the first plane why not its the USofA,  women will have the same rights as men (50% there at some levels),  want to create peace by building the most destructive weapon go ahead and do it by  joining the intelligent minds of foreigners, think of inventing the icon that is used for an idea go ahead invent the light bulb, invent the same thing but in a much smaller space call it the microchip (just don't tell IBM they thought it was useless) go ahead,  the sit-n-spin which top wxu members use when referencing a stationary TS and the use of the word blob coined by our steamed (can't find his socks) i mean esteemed Grothar.  By maintaining the thought that oil is the only and last direct or indirect of source energy and pass that on to young brains you stifle the young imagination to stop thinking "right out of the box" and that in return creates people in their twenties with a feeling of nothing to do to help cause instead of building on what as kids they imagined thus build it in their twenties they are just regurgitating the ideas of the past generation(s)  which creates very few truly new civilization changing ideas as in move money used to find ways of getting more oil to ways of generating energy from greener sources....watch oil companies will add green dye to oil.
 
(removed weird theory/what i call science, on my zilly blog]


...injoy
166. elioe
Quoting 135. daddyjames:



Quoting 159. Xyrus2000:



Indeed, the ice volume seems to have grown extraordinarily slowly, when compared to average, but the reduction is pretty small, when compared to previous few years. (Edit: to clarify possible ambiguity: reduction from previous years is small. Not that this year's growth would be less below average than previous years.) While simultaneously, the cumulative freezing day amount is way below amounts seen previously.

In other words, it seems, that the heat transfer coefficient is also extraordinarily high. And that's not explainable only by small thickness and resulting high conduction, since the volume graphs make it very likely, that the thickness is only 0% - 25% less than during previous five years. Xyrus2000, you said the all important words: Slush, lack of strength, fractures. They are the key to increased ocean-to-air heat flux. While enhancing ice volume growth, the flux also helps to keep the air temperatures high. And I suggest, that this heat flux is the primary reason to why average temperature north of 80N has not dipped to below 247K since late 2015.
Quoting 164. EmsiNasklug:


That goes a bit too far IMO. You cannot accuse someone who simply doesn't like smalltalk and other off-topics to be a denialist.

It's what they do.
Quoting 167. PensacolaDoug:

It's what they do.

Victimhood for breakfast? I didn't know that that was being done anywhere.
169. beell
Quoting 153. aquak9:

Climate is where we live.

Weather is what we eat.

(why do I even try, they're not gonna get it)


I cannot say that I don't disagree with you.
Hello abroad from sunny but still cold Germany. However, there is an end of the stubborn high pressure in sight (surface map for tomorrow):

Germany's winter is over, for now, says expert
The Local, news@thelocal.de, 27 January 2017

Still severe winter weather in Spain though:

Much of Spain on alert for snow, heavy rain and strong winds
The Local, news@thelocal.es, 27 January 2017
Spain was in for some rough weather on Friday with parts of the country on alert for snow fall, while other parts of the country could expect heavy rain and coastal areas were set to be battered by strong winds. ...

Report of record high waves in Spain the last week:
http://spanishnewstoday.com/spanish-news-round_up -week-ending-27th-january-2017_84956-a.html

Video of the coastal damage in Denia, East coast of Spain, last weekend:

El oleaje destroza viviendas en Denia
Deadly avalanches in Kashmir:
Three soldiers from Maharashtra among 15 dead in avalanches
TNN | Updated: Jan 28, 2017, 07.53 AM IST

Avalanche death toll reaches 14
SRINAGAR: January 28, 2017 00:00 IST


Army jawans engaged in search operations in the avalache-hit Gurez sector of Kashmir on Friday.— PHOTO: PTI
In pictures: Incredible UFO cloud spotted in Sweden
The Local, news@thelocal.se, 27 January 2017


The cloud photographed in Are. Photo: Felizia Lorenzotti

Source and more great pics of this lenticular cloud see link above!
173. elioe
Quoting 170. barbamz:

Hello abroad from sunny but still cold Germany. However, there is an end of the stubborn high pressure in sight (surface map for tomorrow)


Haven't European countries had enough of Gordon already, lol. First two NHC versions, and now two simultaneous FU-Berlin versions. Perhaps next year's Gordon will hit Azores again?

Anyway, the pattern is spectacular. Now it's the third day, that we see above-freezing daytime temperatures, while simultaneously the Sun shines, and the winds are from southwest, therefore no Föhn wind. Normally any above-freezing temperatures in the midst of winter would be accompanied by continuous cloud cover or Föhn wind. This pattern should continue until tomorrow, and then mixed precipitation throughout Monday.
Quoting 159. Xyrus2000:

[...] In addition, the state of the arctic ice pack is, in a word, terrible. Most of the pack is now first year "slush" ice that simply melts out and lacks the cohesive strength of long term thick ice. What little remains of the multi-year ice is cracked, fragmented, and only exists in small segments of the arctic now.


Cracks in the ice north of Greenland yesterday. Click the picture to enlarge it. Source.
Look what I found here from '05:
This shows that this blog has never changed.
It's just that now the topic is in a much more dire state than it was back then.
176. elioe
Quoting 174. barbamz:



As a comparison, ice extent on 15 September 2008. Click for better resolution.



On January 16, as well as January 18-22, Alert, Nunavut had winds towards WSW, daily peak gust ranging from 57 to 95 km/h. Seems favourable to break ice nearby (incl. Nares Strait) and transport it to Labrador Sea.
177. elioe
Quoting 175. isothunder67:

Look what I found here from '05:
This shows that this blog has never changed.
It's just that now the topic is in a much more dyer state than it was back then.


I have looked at many very old entries, and the comment section has definitely changed.

Many, many years ago, even if Dr. Masters blogged about climate change, the comments were primarily about weather events. And no-one was interested in weather outside USA, or cyclones outside North Atlantic.

Now, even if Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson blogs about weather, the comments are primarily about climate change... well, since November, now the comments are about U.S. politics. Also, now there are comments about weather events happening outside USA, and tropical developments are being watched in all basins.
Quoting 169. beell:


I cannot say that I don't disagree with you.


Quoting 177. elioe:



I have looked at many very old entries, and the comment section has definitely changed.

Many, many years ago, even if Dr. Masters blogged about climate change, the comments were primarily about weather events. And no-one was interested in weather outside USA, or cyclones outside North Atlantic.

Now, even if Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson blogs about weather, the comments are primarily about climate change... well, since November, now the comments are about U.S. politics. Also, now there are comments about weather events happening outside USA, and tropical developments are being watched in all basins.
It seems that Dr. Masters is being more and more recognized as not just an expert on tropical meteorology, but also as an expert on weather of all types as well as climate change. At the same time, this forum is being more and more recognized as a place to carry on mostly serious and sober discussions about both the state and the fate of our planet vis-a-vis climate science.

Those seem like good things.

I know some probably miss the endless Spongebob memes, the talk of feet, the cliquish cults of personality, and so on--but the forum seems much better for it.
@beell

wait a minute, that's three negatives (cannot, don't, disagree) and two of'm cancel each other out - -

so you ARE disagreeing with me. Hmmph.
A Krispy Kreme Donut, FRESH is never a complete Breakfast.

So never follow Mr. P's diet. You'll grow up short, silly, and a independent..

But Hey, we may not see April so I'm gonna break all the rules too.

G'morn wu lander's.

What's kicking chickens?

Is dat PD over dere?



Sup, PD.
Quoting 180. aquak9:

@beell

wait a minute, that's three negatives (cannot, don't, disagree) and two of'm cancel each other out - -

so you ARE disagreeing with me. Hmmph.

Took a while for me to untangle that one too :o
re:
181. Patrap

Chicagoans used to talk like dat, too. If it's not dese dem and doses...

Thanks for all your colorful language.
From EcoWatch:



Massive Buildout of Gas Infrastructure = Superhighway to Climate Disaster

The Sierra Club released a report Thursday detailing how the fossil fuel industry is engaging in an unprecedented buildout of new gas infrastructure around the country. The report concludes that if America is to meet its climate commitments and protect communities from the dangers of this fossil fuel, we must reject any new proposed gas infrastructure buildout and plans for expansion. [...]


The new gas rush could result in the construction of more than 200 new gas plants across the country, along with massive pipelines.

The report, The Gas Rush: Locking America into Another Fossil Fuel for Decades, documents the scale of the threat posed to our climate and clean air and water from a network of gas pipelines and gas-fired power plants across the country.

"The science is clear: from extraction to production to consumption, gas is a dirty and dangerous fuel that produces significant amounts of pollution, threatens our climate, our clean air and water and the health of our communities," Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club, said. "If the U.S. continues to approve new gas pipelines and power plants and if the majority of politicians continue to spread the falsehood that gas is a clean fuel, we will fail to meet our climate commitments and put our future and our children's future in peril from the climate crisis.

"We must phase out the use of all dirty fuels as fast as possible—not commit to a massive buildout of new gas pipelines that will lock us into yet another dirty fuel for decades. This isn't building a bridge to a cleaner future, it's building a superhighway to climate disaster."

[...]

Click here to read full article
Good Morning Everyone..

I am currently watching AMJOY on MSNBC and I decided to venture here to see whats going on WU. Bill Nye is on speaking about the Unofficial Federal Agency accounts that are tweeting scientific facts. Dr. Masters, if he hasn't already done a blog about this should do so. This is what the new govt regime has pushed truth sayers to do.

A year 1/2 ago, I would have been on here vehemently denying Climate Change..I am glad that I have seen the real truth and now on the right side of history. In just 8 days we have seen the rise of Fascism in the US. We are living in trouble times.

I already attended the Womens March last Saturday in DC and will be attending the Science March as well.

YOU HAVE TO BECOME INVOLVED! We cannot tweet or blog our way through this. Put your boots to the ground.

Those who come behind my post whining about this is a weather blog just know, I could give a..

From EcoWatch:



'We Are Going to Be Selling Your Exxon Shares, Sir, Because We Don't Believe in the Future That You Stand For'

In a world's first, the Irish Parliament voted 90 to 53 on Thursday in favor of a groundbreaking bill that would fully divest public money from coal, oil and gas.

Fossil Free Europe has hailed it as a "first-of-its-kind fossil fuel divestment legislation."

The Fossil Fuel Divestment Bill, which was supported by almost all of Ireland's political parties except the Fine Gael, will now go to the committee stage. According to The Independent, the bill is likely to pass into law in the next few months after it is reviewed.

[...]

Independent TD Thomas Pringle, who introduced the bill, said the legislation makes a powerful statement to the world.

"This principle of ethical financing is a symbol to these global corporations that their continual manipulation of climate science, denial of the existence of climate change and their controversial lobbying practices of politicians around the world is no longer tolerated," Pringle said.

"We cannot accept their actions while millions of poor people in underdeveloped nations bear the brunt of climate change forces as they experience famine, mass emigration and civil unrest as a result."

[...]

Trócaire, an Catholic charity that fights worldwide poverty, backed the divestment campaign.

"With a climate-sceptic recently inaugurated into the White House, this move by elected representatives in Ireland will send out a powerful message," said Trócaire executive director Éamonn Meehan.

"The Irish political system is now finally acknowledging what the overwhelming majority of people already know: That to have a fighting chance to combat catastrophic climate change we must phase out fossil fuels and stop the growth of the industry that is driving this crisis," he added.

In the powerful video below, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan celebrates the bill as a clear message to the White House, which has embraced fossil fuels.

"Donald Trump—what an answer to him. What an answer to his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson," Ryan said. "We are going to be selling your ExxonMobil shares, sir, because we don't believe in the future that you stand for."

[...]

Click here to read full article
Does anyone have news about the larsen c shelf?
Quoting 179. Neapolitan:

It seems that Dr. Masters is being more and more recognized as not just an expert on tropical meteorology, but also as an expert on weather of all types as well as climate change. At the same time, this forum is being more and more recognized as a place to carry on mostly serious and sober discussions about both the state and the fate of our planet vis-a-vis climate science.

Those seem like good things.

I know some probably miss the endless Spongebob memes, the talk of feet, the cliquish cults of personality, and so on--but the forum seems much better for it.

Speaking of spongebob, it's newer episodes are trash. No more the krusty krab pizza
Larsen c shelf crack

About 3,890 results (0.50 seconds)
Quoting 166. elioe:


Indeed, the ice volume seems to have grown extraordinarily slowly, when compared to average, but the reduction is pretty small, when compared to previous few years. (Edit: to clarify possible ambiguity: reduction from previous years is small. Not that this year's growth would be less below average than previous years.) While simultaneously, the cumulative freezing day amount is way below amounts seen previously.

In other words, it seems, that the heat transfer coefficient is also extraordinarily high. And that's not explainable only by small thickness and resulting high conduction, since the volume graphs make it very likely, that the thickness is only 0% - 25% less than during previous five years. Xyrus2000, you said the all important words: Slush, lack of strength, fractures. They are the key to increased ocean-to-air heat flux. While enhancing ice volume growth, the flux also helps to keep the air temperatures high. And I suggest, that this heat flux is the primary reason to why average temperature north of 80N has not dipped to below 247K since late 2015.

"While enhancing ice volume growth, the flux also helps to keep the air temperatures high."

It seems counter intuitive - wouldn't warmer water and heat flux have a somewhat inverse relationship with ice volume?

For anyone who is a bit of a newbie (like me) about the whole ice/Arctic/volume/heat flux thing, this blog from 2012 is a great primer. If anyone knows of good summaries/explanations that aren't too technical, I'd be interested in reading them.
This is what is on the minds,of American youth, as they blog about in their spare time.

I stop in here once a day to stay current on the state of mental affairs in our "yute's".


All of us over 55 are gonna die the last, cuz we know ting's, Huge ting's, the best ting's.

But yeah, chemtrails, Liberal's, Trump, and derp are fine American qualities today.

www.godlikeproductions.com



Climate change is quite normal in history. For example, not many people know that approximately 560 million years ago, there was an event known as snowball earth. Everything, was frozen, save for a small band of water near the equator. Well, if this climate change was really a scam by the Chinese, why are we not under miles of ice? In order to get rid of this ice, the low global temperatures need to drastically rise. Thats climate change. Without, our ancestors would not have participated in the Cambrian explosion 500 million years ago. In the last 500 million years, our world has experienced 4 great ice ages. Lets say that climate change was a scam, then how would you explain this? How would you explain how we got from there to here? Let us not forget the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, in which the temperature was much higher than it is now. I suppose those dinosaurs had massive factories pumping co2 into the air, right? WRONG. This, compared to our present day climate change happened on a large time scale, approximately a few million years. We are pumping co2 into the air at a much higher rate in a shorter amount of time. At the time, the ssts in the equatorial Atlantic average 29 degrees Celsius. During the thermal maximum, they were much higher, at around 33 degrees Celsius.
Quoting wikipedia, " It was the most extreme disruption of the carbon cycle recorded in the past 100 million years."
My point is, climate change is something that happens regularly, however us human are speeding it up, thus having dire consequences around the globe.
Quoting 192. Patrap:

Larsen c shelf crack

About 3,890 results (0.50 seconds)

thank you.
Doctor Masters, there is a bug. The date joined for everyone is set to December 31 1969.
199. elioe
Quoting 193. LAbonbon:


"While enhancing ice volume growth, the flux also helps to keep the air temperatures high."

It seems counter intuitive - wouldn't warmer water and heat flux have a somewhat inverse relationship with ice volume?


Well, if the surface water was warmer, no ice could form, it has to remain constant at freezing temperature ;)

But obviously you mean air temperature. The heat flux through ice is bigger, when air is colder. Greater heat flux mean more ice formation, if the heat flux to the bottom of ice from deep waters doesn't grow even more rapidly. But warmer surface air loses more heat by radiation as well as horizontal and vertical movements. These all create a kind of balance for each ice condition, in which the heat flux through the ice and ice formation grow bigger, when the ice is more fractured, or it's thickness is distributed more unevenly.

I don't actually know how to be non-technical. :(
Chinese New Year fireworks spark a return to hazardous Beijing pollution
by Reuters, Saturday, 28 January 2017 07:06 GMT
BEIJING, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Residents of China's capital awoke on Saturday to dense, choking smog after many set off a barrage of fireworks overnight to ring in the Lunar New Year, despite limits and public admonitions against such displays in the congested city.
The Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau said harmful particulate matter in the air had hit the second-highest level in five years by Saturday morning, the state-owned China News Service reported. ...


Same thing in Germany this NYE, if you remember. Guess the times of private orgies of fireworks will be gone soon ...
Quoting 186. Xandra:

From EcoWatch:



Massive Buildout of Gas Infrastructure = Superhighway to Climate Disaster

The Sierra Club released a report Thursday detailing how the fossil fuel industry is engaging in an unprecedented buildout of new gas infrastructure around the country. The report concludes that if America is to meet its climate commitments and protect communities from the dangers of this fossil fuel, we must reject any new proposed gas infrastructure buildout and plans for expansion. [...]


The new gas rush could result in the construction of more than 200 new gas plants across the country, along with massive pipelines.

The report, The Gas Rush: Locking America into Another Fossil Fuel for Decades, documents the scale of the threat posed to our climate and clean air and water from a network of gas pipelines and gas-fired power plants across the country.

"The science is clear: from extraction to production to consumption, gas is a dirty and dangerous fuel that produces significant amounts of pollution, threatens our climate, our clean air and water and the health of our communities," Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club, said. "If the U.S. continues to approve new gas pipelines and power plants and if the majority of politicians continue to spread the falsehood that gas is a clean fuel, we will fail to meet our climate commitments and put our future and our children's future in peril from the climate crisis.

"We must phase out the use of all dirty fuels as fast as possible—not commit to a massive buildout of new gas pipelines that will lock us into yet another dirty fuel for decades. This isn't building a bridge to a cleaner future, it's building a superhighway to climate disaster."

[...]

Click here to read full article
No gas, no coal, no nuclear? What do we do when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing? I read an article about a solar plant in Nevada that uses gas at night to keep their boilers hot and is actually using quite a bit more gas than was planned.
Quoting 201. Kenfa03:

No gas, no coal, no nuclear? What do we do when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing? I read an article about a solar plant in Nevada that uses gas at night to keep their boilers hot and is actually using quite a bit more gas than was planned.


Heard?

It is the internets, so go and find it.


The article you reference is from October 2015..

Here'

205. elioe
I wonder if a Cat 3 or stronger cyclone has ever made landfall in Mozambique...
Edit: At least Eline on February 22, 2000.

Quoting 189. Xandra:

From EcoWatch:




Great News. That's the way to make the Carbon Bubble burst!
Quoting 205. elioe:

I wonder if a Cat 3 or stronger cyclone has ever made landfall in Mozambique...



I'm pretty sure, yes. The Madagascar strait is prone to cyclones, they sometimes zigzag down through it. I remember one year in the zeros when M. was struck by 5 (five) cyclones. Not much was in the western media on that ...
Translated tweet from keraunos (9 h ago):
"After Chile, Argentina: absolute record highs set in Trelew* (42.2 C / 108 F) and Puerto Madryn* (43.4C / 110.1 F) in Patagonia yesterday (Friday)".

*Scroll down for climate data.

One week ago, further south:
Ushuaia out off internet: beavers cut the optic fiber to build dens
Mercopress - January 24.
All Global weather takes place in a warmer, more Water Vapor Laden Atmosphere.

This not the Atmosphere of my youth, nor my Fathers, nor His.

This is a Global Human Terra Forming Project,...

The Warming continues.

Unabated.




faster and faster we go
The data speaks for itself.
Edit: not that we shouldn't tell the story, of course.
Quoting 213. 999Ai2016:

Translated tweet from keraunos (9 h ago):
"After Chile, Argentina: absolute record highs set in Trelew* (42.2 C / 108 F) and Puerto Madryn* (43.4C / 110.1 F) in Patagonia yesterday (Friday)".

One week ago, further south:
Ushuaia out off internet: beavers cut the optic fiber to build dens
Mercopress - January 24.

*Scroll down for climate data.

Love the beaver story
As if we already didn't have enough to worry about from
Climate change. New mercury threat to oceans from climate change
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 14U
2:51 AM WST January 29 2017
==================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 20.2S 110.1E or 460 km west northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.1S 108.7E - 35 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS 20.1S 107.3E - 35 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS 21.2S 104.2E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS 22.2S 100.3E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
==================
The center was located by satellite imagery, which was difficult to locate.

Intensity analysis of 40 knots influenced by surface observations from earlier in the day coupled with the continued quick translation speed and model guidance. However, as gales are likely on the western side only, the system is not rated at tropical cyclone intensity.

Curvature has been decreasing and the system is becoming more elongated. There has also been a decrease in deep convection. Dvorak analysis using curved band suggests a wrap of around 0.2 averaged over the last few hours.The FT is 2.0 and CI is held at 2.5 which is generally consistent with objective ADT.

The low is encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger shear [24 knots on CIMMS]. There may also be some dryer air on the western side starting to entrain into the system. Despite not developing into a tropical cyclone gales are likely to continue to the west of the center for a period as the translation speed combines with the synoptic southeasterly flow.
at the top of Greenland due northwest

Quoting 199. elioe:



Well, if the surface water was warmer, no ice could form, it has to remain constant at freezing temperature ;)

But obviously you mean air temperature. The heat flux through ice is bigger, when air is colder. Greater heat flux mean more ice formation, if the heat flux to the bottom of ice from deep waters doesn't grow even more rapidly. But warmer surface air loses more heat by radiation as well as horizontal and vertical movements. These all create a kind of balance for each ice condition, in which the heat flux through the ice and ice formation grow bigger, when the ice is more fractured, or it's thickness is distributed more unevenly.

I don't actually know how to be non-technical. :(

No worries about a technical answer. My background is in science, but it's been quite a few years since I took physics. More like decades...

Some of the answers posted here are quite technical, as they should be. Sometimes the answers are a tad over my head. daddyjames posting stuff about EOF analyses? That's just shy of painful...and using Fortran? Nope, not going to happen, that was the low point of my university experience.

I appreciate your answers (and everybody else's). I'm sure I'll be posting more questions soon!
Quoting 199. elioe:



Well, if the surface water was warmer, no ice could form, it has to remain constant at freezing temperature ;)

But obviously you mean air temperature. The heat flux through ice is bigger, when air is colder. Greater heat flux mean more ice formation, if the heat flux to the bottom of ice from deep waters doesn't grow even more rapidly. But warmer surface air loses more heat by radiation as well as horizontal and vertical movements. These all create a kind of balance for each ice condition, in which the heat flux through the ice and ice formation grow bigger, when the ice is more fractured, or it's thickness is distributed more unevenly.

I don't actually know how to be non-technical. :(


Well, that actually depends upon the temperature of the ice - which when it is above the water is influenced by the temperature of the surrounding air itself. The thermal conductivity of ice changes as it gets colder - it decreases.

Re: your argument that the change in volume is not great compared to recent years is disingenuous at best (and I am being nice in making that statement). It is actually unprecedented in recorded history.
Quoting 215. Patrap:

All Global weather takes place in a warmer, more Water Vapor Laden Atmosphere.

This not the Atmosphere of my youth, nor my Fathers, nor His.

This is a Global Human Terra Forming Project,...

The Warming continues.

Unabated.





Permenant el nino.
Quoting 205. elioe:

I wonder if a Cat 3 or stronger cyclone has ever made landfall in Mozambique...
Edit: At least Eline on February 22, 2000.

Wikipedia:
The 2000 Mozambique flood was a natural disaster that occurred in February and March 2000. The catastrophic flooding was caused by heavy rainfall that lasted for five weeks and made many homeless. Approximately 700 people were killed. 1,400 km² of arable land was affected and 20,000 herds of cattle were lost. It was the worst flood in Mozambique in 50 years.
It started in South Africa when heavy rain falls traveled over to Mozambique. It caused dozens of deaths. 44,000 were left homeless. Later, Cyclone Eline came and destroyed many more homes and lives.
Hey Keep, how's the snow your way. After a slight melt up Weds to Friday we just got a fresh few inches... Back to having to throw the snow over my head when I shovel the driveway...
Good Afternoon. My Wife and I (and it was her idea) drove up to Albany Georgia this morning to see the damage from the tornadoes there last weekend. Words cannot describe the amount of devastation that we saw in an area probably covering about 30-40 square blocks. While TWC and other outlets took video and pictures from the main drag on 84 with several devastated buildings including a gas station complex, an entire residential neighborhood to the South of 84 was very hard hit. Trees snapped in half everywhere, several trees on homes and cars, homes missing roofs, and blown apart mobile homes with insulation blown everywhere.

The good news is that Georgia State Police was patrolling in numbers, Fema and Federal agencies had command posts set up with piles of supplies and bottled water, and a local Church was collecting items and donations (piled up in droves in from of the Church). Last time I saw something this was in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew the morning after. And lots of debris removal and utilities trucks (over 30-40) working on restoring power to the hard hit area and insurance agents talking to homeowners. God Speed to all the residents and first responders in Albany for a speedy recovery.

I did not take pictures out of respect for those who lost their lives and those trying to recover.
Quoting 238. Dakster:

Hey Keep, how's the snow your way. After a slight melt up Weds to Friday we just got a fresh few inches... Back to having to throw the snow over my head when I shovel the driveway...

we are just starting into the cool down
got a coating snow wise down flurries from time to time
snow begins late Monday night into tus wed maybe thur
with colder air filtering down as we move along into the week ahead
by end of week -12c night lows -6c day highs so a more
normal abnormal winter period here coming up

next significant event will be around feb 3rd
storm system takes shape over south central states
looks to stay south but it could swing on up and out
need to watch models on that one

latest model shot at 8 am next sunday morning week out

another severe event in the making perhaps
From Tulsa World:

Letter to the editor: Pruitt and Inhofe were quite a show

By Frank Chambers, Stillwater

Oklahomans should have been proud that two of our elected officials participated in the U.S. Senate hearings on the nomination of the new administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency.

However, this Oklahoman was embarrassed by Attorney General Scott Pruitt, the nominee, and Sen. Jim Inhofe, Environment and Public Works Committee member.

Pruitt misrepresented his role in the dispute with Arkansas on chicken waste in the Illinois River. From his presentation, one would have no idea that his predecessor, Drew Edmondson, had done any of the work on the suit and that Pruitt’s main contribution was to delay. Senators who had done their homework caught him.

Pruitt also was transparently evasive in answering questions about his view on the human role in global warming and on whether, if confirmed, he would recuse himself from the lawsuits he filed against the EPA as Oklahoma AG.

Inhofe presented a thoroughly discredited description of the 2009 pseudo-scandal of Climategate [1],[2],[3], which involved the misinterpretation of hacked emails. He does not care about, know, or remember the facts. In any case, he no longer should be representing us in the Senate.

Neither Pruitt nor Inhofe did Oklahoma proud.




Bernie Sanders grills EPA nominee Scott Pruitt on climate change
It seems as if today's snowfall has pushed Anchorage into the "average" year spot for this time of the year... Wonder how Pedley is handling the rain....

Many ski resorts currently have 20 feet on the ground, and even more at the highest elevations. The runoff this year will be spectacular.
247. elioe
Quoting 228. daddyjames:

Re: your argument that the change in volume is not great compared to recent years is disingenuous at best (and I am being nice in making that statement). It is actually unprecedented in recorded history.


Oh? I'll crop the graph from #135 for clarity.



Somewhat like this:

Year 2017: 13800 km³, Year 2016: 14300 km³, change -500 km³

Year 2016: 14300 km³, Year 2015: 17000 km³, change -2700 km³

Am I doing something wrong, to not to see how a reduction of 500 km³ in a year is unprecedented?

GFS prog has the SF Bay Area and northern Sierra in the left exit quad of a modest jet max by midweek, with the overall flow starting to cut off the ridge and resuming a zonal flow across the Pacific.
Zack Labe:
‏@ZLabe

Preliminary surface air temperature over the #Arctic Ocean for January 2017 (1/1-1/25) show greatest anomaly in Barents-Kara Seas region




Follow the variability and trends. Changing mean #Arctic sea ice thickness over the satellite era (from 1979, PIOMAS)

Ummmm, when I checked the Arctic sea ice on NSIDC.org this morning, the extent showed 13.7 million km2 above 25% sea ice concentration. Certainly low, but I'm a little uncertain where 11.688 million km2 came from. I want to say that 11.688 million km2 was around the beginning of December. Furthermore the image you showed as a comparison of the "maximum" at 15.2 million km2 is the average from March, not January, we should be around 14.5 million km2 for this time of year. I'm someone who believes climate change is a huge concern but I feel that this data is misleading, only hurting the cause, as it can be pointed out as I am. Perhaps I'm wrong about the data I'm being presented and if so I apologize, however I'm curious on what I'm missing here. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interac tive-sea-ice-graph/
Quoting 235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Cold war spurred Arctic climate research
Climate News Network.

LONDON, 28 January, 2017 - On the agenda at the secret meeting of scientists and the top brass of the US military was the increased melting of Arctic ice and changes in the climate.

Senior scientists told of an extended period of warming in remote areas of the north. The meeting was told that many Arctic Ocean ports were ice-free for longer periods; US national security was potentially being threatened by increased Soviet marine activity in the region.

The year was 1947 and the gathering was at the Pentagon, the US defence headquarters outside Washington. Thereafter, according to a study examining scientific research in the Arctic in the post-war period, US military activities in the region - particularly in Greenland - were radically ramped up. (...)
Quoting 244. Dakster:

It seems as if today's snowfall has pushed Anchorage into the "average" year spot for this time of the year... Wonder how Pedley is handling the rain....


10/1/2016 to 01/28/2017=12.84" of rain, lots of weeds growing.....
ur growing weed
Can anyone from the West Coast commentariate tell me why the rain year was changed from 7/1 - 6/30 to 10/1 - 9/30 a few years back? Was it because they included additional stations to the CA NV region? Thanks
Quoting 247. elioe:



Oh? I'll crop the graph from #135 for clarity.



Somewhat like this:

Year 2017: 13800 km, Year 2016: 14300 km, change -500 km

Year 2016: 14300 km, Year 2015: 17000 km, change -2700 km

Am I doing something wrong, to not to see how a reduction of 500 km in a year is unprecedented?


Given that the thickness of the ice has decreased dramatically from what has been observed in the past to among the lowest levels aver seen in the Arctic, your statement that it is "not so bad compared to recent years" is disingenuous. A rapid thinning of the Arctic ice cover has occurred in a very short period of time climatically. Your statement minimizes the overall rapid change that has occurred. I could attribute your statement to naivety, but I know better.



edit: Not sure Ihow I quoted you several times - fixed

Latest PIOMAS (model; Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) sea ice volume (SIV) across the Arctic (updated for December 2016). Source: Zach Labe - Arctic Sea Ice Figures
Quoting 250. s2y0r0u1s:

Ummmm, when I checked the Arctic sea ice on NSIDC.org this morning, the extent showed 13.7 million km2 above 25% sea ice concentration. Certainly low, but I'm a little uncertain where 11.688 million km2 came from. I want to say that 11.688 million km2 was around the beginning of December. Furthermore the image you showed as a comparison of the "maximum" at 15.2 million km2 is the average from March, not January, we should be around 14.5 million km2 for this time of year. I'm someone who believes climate change is a huge concern but I feel that this data is misleading, only hurting the cause, as it can be pointed out as I am. Perhaps I'm wrong about the data I'm being presented and if so I apologize, however I'm curious on what I'm missing here. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interac tive-sea-ice-graph/



You're wrong, but it's due to a misunderstanding. Your talking about extent while he was talking about area. Area and extent are two different measures of sea ice.

Sea Ice Extent: Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration.

Sea Ice Area: Sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration.

Two different methods, two different numbers. Both provide a different way of examining sea ice. Side note: Volume is the most important measure as that's how much ice there actually is. By combining these measures with PIOMAS data you can get an average "thickness" of the ice pack (which is abysmally thin at this point).

This freezing season has been particularly bad as the persistent "warm" temperatures has prevented a significant amount of typical ice regrowth. Unless something drastically changes, even an "normal" melting season has a really good chance of hitting a new minimum.

This, perhaps, better makes my point.


Quoting 254. Milton1025:

Can anyone from the West Coast commentariate tell me why the rain year was changed from 7/1 - 6/30 to 10/1 - 9/30 a few years back? Was it because they included additional stations to the CA NV region? Thanks


Do a search on "water year" and you find all kinds of stuff on it. It wouldn't have mattered here as there wasn't any rain between 7/1/2016 and 10/1/2016. I think the rain started on the 18th of October.
Quoting 247. elioe:



Oh? I'll crop the graph from #135 for clarity.



Somewhat like this:

Year 2017: 13800 km³, Year 2016: 14300 km³, change -500 km³

Year 2016: 14300 km³, Year 2015: 17000 km³, change -2700 km³

Am I doing something wrong, to not to see how a reduction of 500 km³ in a year is unprecedented?


You're doing something wrong. You're comparing 12/2015 and 12/2016, which is fine and shows the remarkable decrease in volume going into 2017. I've no idea what you're doing with the 2017 comparison. Official numbers haven't even be released yet.


"the extraordinary high temperatures on Thursday in Chile could have been due, in part, to the effects of the severe wildfires burning near the hottest areas"

So no one bothers to confirm before posting...... Wow!
Quoting 261. Skeptic27729:



"the extraordinary high temperatures on Thursday in Chile could have been due, in part, to the effects of the severe wildfires burning near the hottest areas"

So no one bothers to confirm before posting...... Wow!

Nope. Obviously, the statement explains that the temperature recorded may have been influenced by the proximity of the wildfires, and "the new record will need to be verified by the weather service of Chile."

So, what is your problem?
263. elioe
Quoting 260. Xyrus2000:



You're doing something wrong. You're comparing 12/2015 and 12/2016, which is fine and shows the remarkable decrease in volume going into 2017. I've no idea what you're doing with the 2017 comparison. Official numbers haven't even be released yet.


I'm comparing late Januaries of 2015, 2016 and 2017. And which "official numbers" you are referring to, PIOMAS? The chart is from JAXA, daddyjames was the first to post it. Here's the full chart once again.



It shows, that while the sea ice volume was extraordinarily low up to the beginning of November (I suppose it was also record-breakingly low by some 1000 km³, but can't confirm it, since the chart shows Novembers only back to 2012), since then the sea ice growth has proceeded in a manner typical to winters 2012-13 to 2015-16, and the late January figure is has come very close to 2013 and 2016 values, even though still being the lowest.
264. vis0

Quoting 201. Kenfa03:

No gas, no coal, no nuclear? What do we do when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing? I read an article about a solar plant in Nevada that uses gas at night to keep their boilers hot and is actually using quite a bit more gas than was planned.
the wind can be bent to always blow, the solar panels can store energy and a massive solar belt-line could be built around the globe so the sunshine is sent to international power grids oh wait they would be built in the areas of max sunshine as in near equators as in Mexico...can ya say por favor?
coulda made a pie with all that cherry-pickin'
Just came here to talk about a little weather if you all don't mind for a quick second.We've been in Key West for a few days now and will have to be leaving tomorrow morning.The weather has been fantastic and I kinda don't want to go back to D.C but at last...we all have to get back to our daily lives.Snow(?) will probably make a comeback Monday (I doubt anything happens) and seasonable weather will greet us when we get back.
Quoting 263. elioe:



I'm comparing late Januaries of 2015, 2016 and 2017. And which "official numbers" you are referring to, PIOMAS? The chart is from JAXA, daddyjames was the first to post it. Here's the full chart once again.



It shows, that while the sea ice volume was extraordinarily low up to the beginning of November (I suppose it was also record-breakingly low by some 1000 km, but can't confirm it, since the chart shows Novembers only back to 2012), since then the sea ice growth has proceeded in a manner typical to winters 2012-13 to 2015-16, and the late January figure is has come very close to 2013 and 2016 values, even though still being the lowest.


it shows December as well. It just does not indicate that on the axis. December 2016 - on average - was a record low for volume. Only for a portion of December 2016 was it at or above the previous record low volume set in 2012.

Edited for further clarification
268. elioe
Quoting 267. daddyjames:



it shows December as well. It just does not indicate that on the axis. December 2016 - on average - was a record low for volume. Only for a portion of December 2016 was it at or above the previous record low volume set in 2012.

Edited for further clarification


Yes indeed that was the case, but the volume wasn't the point. The point was the growth of the volume. And all began with the freezing day anomaly:

Quoting 69. LAbonbon:





Can someone who is familiar with these types of graphs please explain the purpose of ERA40 in the legend? (Like other requests, this is likely obvious to many of you)


The freezing day anomaly differs hugely from anything seen in previous winters. The growth of ice is proceeding in a manner similar to previous winters. The freezing day anomaly has not translated to similarly astoundingly huge ice growth anomalies. Therefore, the ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer coefficient has to be astoundingly huge, compared to previous winters.
Quoting 268. elioe:



Yes indeed that was the case, but the volume wasn't the point. The point was the growth of the volume. And all began with the freezing day anomaly:



The freezing day anomaly differs hugely from anything seen in previous winters. The growth of ice is proceeding in a manner similar to previous winters. The freezing day anomaly has not translated to similarly astoundingly huge ice growth anomalies. Therefore, the ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer coefficient has to be astoundingly huge, compared to previous winters.


Um yes it has (The FDD anomaly contributing to ice growth). From the previous post:

Note: Anyone claiming a "recovery" in extent is ignoring new ice thickness this year is 27% less than climatology and 10 to 15% less than the average of the past decade. The accumulated FDD anomaly is now greater than at *any* time in the DMI N80 dataset with 40% of the freezing season still to go.

So, the ice thickness is 10-15% lower than the average thickness from the past 10 years - which have been abnormally low. So, your statement is incorrect.
I got DJ for a C-note, and $20 bucks one gets banned.




Quoting 264. vis0:


the wind can be bent to always blow, the solar panels can store energy and a massive solar belt-line could be built around the globe so the sunshine is sent to international power grids oh wait they would be built in the areas of max sunshine as in near equators as in Mexico...can ya say por favor?

Si. Border wall out of solar panels?
Quoting 262. daddyjames:


Nope. Obviously, the statement explains that the temperature recorded may have been influenced by the proximity of the wildfires, and "the new record will need to be verified by the weather service of Chile."

So, what is your problem?
He's skeptical?
273. elioe
Quoting 269. daddyjames:



Um yes it is. From the previous post:

Note: Anyone claiming a "recovery" in extent is ignoring new ice thickness this year is 27% less than climatology and 10 to 15% less than the average of the past decade. The accumulated FDD anomaly is now greater than at *any* time in the DMI N80 dataset with 40% of the freezing season still to go.

So, the ice thickness is 10-15% lower than the average thickness from the past 10 years - which have been abnormally low. So, your statement is incorrect.


Volume may have been a point for you and discussions you have had with others, but "the previous post" was something I never referred to. I have always talked about the growth rate of the volume, and compared it to the freezing day anomaly. And I have compared neither the volume, nor the growth of volume, nor the freezing day anomaly to the climatological average. Only to the previous few years. And if your personal misgivings, which became evident in an earlier comment, make it impossible to see the content of my comments, let me be clear just in case:

I have never claimed a "recovery" in the ice situation.
Challenger Space Shuttle crew before boarding, January 28, 1986. By central FL standards it was a brisk day.

From InsideClimate News:

World Bank Favors Fossil Fuel Projects in Developing Countries, Report Says

A watchdog group studied four countries and found the bank’s financing encouraged policies that steered money toward coal, gas and oil.


A report says World Bank financing pushes countries like Indonesia toward more coal infrastructure and away from clean energy projects. Credit: Getty Images

A watchdog group has issued a new study saying the World Bank, which distributes billions of dollars to developing countries each year with a goal of reducing poverty, is pushing those countries toward fossil fuel projects despite acknowledging that climate change poses a threat to its mission.

The study, released late Thursday, said one of the bank's primary lending programs has steered investment toward coal, gas and oil, while blunting efforts to advance renewable energy sources, including wind and solar.

The Bank Information Center looked at one of the bank's three lending programs—known as Development Policy Finance—in four countries between 2007 and 2016: Peru, Egypt, Mozambique and Indonesia. It said the program pushed countries toward coal projects and transmission in Indonesia, new coal plants in Egypt, three natural gas pipelines in the Peruvian Amazon and oil exploration in Mozambique, among other projects.

The bank distributed funds to the four countries, totaling $5 billion over the 11-year period, after agreeing that these countries would enact certain policy changes. Those policies, the Bank Information Center says, supported tax breaks, subsidies and public-private partnerships that enabled these projects, despite the World Bank's intention that the program would help countries hasten their transition to low-carbon economies.

"We analyzed what sort of industry was benefiting and across the board, the fossil fuel industry was at the top of the list," said Nezir Sinani, a manager at the Bank Information Center's Europe and Central Asia divisions, "which is troubling because the World Bank is using this lending instrument to sell these countries on a low-carbon path."

Read more here
Quoting 273. elioe:



Volume may have been a point for you and discussions you have had with others, but "the previous post" was something I never referred to. I have always talked about the growth rate of the volume, and compared it to the freezing day anomaly. And I have compared neither the volume, nor the growth of volume, nor the freezing day anomaly to the climatological average. Only to the previous few years. And if your personal misgivings, which became evident in an earlier comment, make it impossible to see the content of my comments, let me be clear just in case:

I have never claimed a "recovery" in the ice situation.


I did not say you "claimed that a recovery was occurring".

The comment I quoted was from the source of information regarding the current ice volume in the Arctic.
It simply points out that the thickness of the ice, as it exists in the Arctic is much lower than it has been ever been (in recorded history) whereas extent is within ranges observed in the past decade.

You made a comment earlier about whether or not volume of ice in the Arctic would be at a record low in January. I posted evidence that it was, and most likely will be, The leading contributor to the decrease in volume being observed this year, which is particularly worrisome, is the significant decrease in the thickness of ice observed this year, as compared with the previous decade and climatological average.

This suggests that the FDD anomaly has been having a significant impact. Obviously, there are a number of mechanisms that contribute to this including ice flow, storminess, and wind direction and speed, etc.

However, I don't think that you can state that the "growth in ice" (be it volume or thickness] has not been impacted by the FDD anomaly that has been observed. The thickness and volume are at or near record lows and are not rebounding appreciably. It remains to be seen if it will for the remaining freeze season.

In regards to growth rate, neither one of us has demonstrated any evidence to support a convincing argument as to whether or not the growth rate is proceeding "normally" nor to how much FDD contributes to it.

277. elioe
Quoting 276. daddyjames:



I did not say you "claimed that a recovery was occurring".


You didn't. But I accounted for the possibility that you thought so. Just in case, as things seemed to become personal. Sorry.

Quoting 276. daddyjames:
You made a comment earlier about whether or not volume of ice in the Arctic would be at a record low in January.


Well, not... at least if I understand correctly which comment you are meaning. I'll repost it with the important part bolded.

Quoting 105. elioe:



That depends on the heat transfer coefficient through the ice. Like how fractured the ice is. Or how evenly is the thickness distributed. I'm not going to learn how to read raw 32-bit files, and I guess we would anyway have to see January figures to see, if the continuously above-average temperatures have translated to below-average ice volume growth.


And the growth seems to be still above average, according to the PIOMAS graph posted earlier, since the summer volume figures are more anomalously low than the winter figure is now.

Quoting 276. daddyjames:
However, I don't think that you can state that the "growth in ice" (be it volume or thickness] has not been impacted by the FDD anomaly that has been observed. The thickness and volume are at or near record lows and are not rebounding appreciably. It remains to be seen if it will for the remaining freeze season.


Well, comparing growth in ice to the FDD anomaly, their relation is almost the opposite than expected. September ice volumes are falling faster than the April ice volumes.

Quoting 276. daddyjames:
In regards to growth rate, neither one of us has demonstrated any evidence to support a convincing argument as to whether or not the growth rate is proceeding "normally" nor to how much FDD contributes to it.




The important thing is, that specifically this winter (so far), the ice growth rate does not exhibit such "tipping point" behavior as the FDD anomaly does.

What I think is important to make clear here, are the causal connections, as I see them. I don't see the FDD anomaly influencing the ice growth. I see, that this winter, the ice is exceptionally fractured, it's thickness is exceptionally unevenly distributed, and there are exceptionally large patches of open water embedded within the ice cover. And it is this more rough structure of ice cover, which is enhancing the heat flux from the ocean, and as such, it is causing both higher amounts of ice formation and higher temperatures.
Checking in late night on the current unrest in the world, uhhh ...

As a bedtime reading, here is an interesting long article in the New York Times:
In America’s Heartland, Discussing Climate Change Without Saying ‘Climate Change’
New York Times, by HIROKO TABUCHI, JAN. 28, 2017

If this is not enough, here is more to read:

Victoria to take on Turnbull with new climate target in wake of Hazelwood closure
Sydney Morning Herald, January 29 2017 - 12:00AM
The Victorian government will pledge to cut the state's greenhouse gas emissions by up to a fifth by 2020, putting it at odds with Canberra as the state positions itself as the national leader on tackling climate change. ...

New Power Plant Shows India is Serious About Solar
Published: January 28th, 2017, Climate Central, by Rina Chandran, Thomson Reuters Foundation
The vast, 10 sq km project in Ramanathapuram, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, is the world's largest solar power station in a single location, according to the company. It has the capacity to power 150,000 homes — and it is one sign of how serious India is becoming about meeting its renewable energy targets. ...

Trump’s team fears climate change differences with Prince Charles could flare up in state visit
The Telegraph, Ben Riley-Smith, Assistant Political Editor, 28 January 2017 • 10:00pm
Donald Trump’s aides have raised concerns that a likely meeting with Prince Charles during his state visit could backfire because of the pair’s differences on climate change. ...

See you tomorrow, and good night.
Thanks for pointing that out to me, I assumed extent with that 15.2million km2 value and certainly needed to educate myself further on the topic. I'm glad to say I now do understand the difference in great detail. With that said according to the NSIDC, "if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger." The lower image says at the bottom that the area is 15.2 million km2, you would expect an extent near 16 million km2 (+/- 0.1 million km2), however 16 million km2 has never been observed in January and an area of 15.2 million km2 has been observed a handful of times in the last 39 years of observational history, which happened around the end of February/beginning of March. Jan 27th Maximum of Maxima is actually around 14.2 million km2. In reality the area anomaly is -0.675 million km2 not near -4 million km2 as the two maps imply.

My impression still remains the same, the "Maximum of Maxima" doesn't represent any Jan 27th in observational history and is thus an unfair representation, furthermore showing a maximum that has been obtained a few times is unfair, that an average, even if its the average of a decade from 1979-1989 (which shows the average area being around 14 million km2 at the highest ice extent in the year), is a better way of representing the data. I certainly agree that the sea ice has been dreadful this year and something to keep an eye on, but the data presented seems to me to be misconstrued. Jan 27th should be compared to Jan 27th, not the highest maximum ever observed at any time in the year. Its the same as showing the Minimum of Minima from the end of Summer and comparing it to Jan 27th and pointing out how much more ice there is then the minimum.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing /YearlyData/maximum-of-maxima
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing /daily-data

Quoting 257. Xyrus2000:



You're wrong, but it's due to a misunderstanding. Your talking about extent while he was talking about area. Area and extent are two different measures of sea ice.

Sea Ice Extent: Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration.

Sea Ice Area: Sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration.

Two different methods, two different numbers. Both provide a different way of examining sea ice. Side note: Volume is the most important measure as that's how much ice there actually is. By combining these measures with PIOMAS data you can get an average "thickness" of the ice pack (which is abysmally thin at this point).

This freezing season has been particularly bad as the persistent "warm" temperatures has prevented a significant amount of typical ice regrowth. Unless something drastically changes, even an "normal" melting season has a really good chance of hitting a new minimum.


Found these numbers for Average rainfall.


With an average annual rainfall of 24.71 inches, the state of California gets 14.5 less inches of rain than the national average (39.17 inches)

Riverside has had an average rainfall of 12.4 inches over the last 30 years, which is 68% less than the average nationwide, and 50% less than the average in California.


We are above average for this year at 12.84"
Quoting 278. barbamz:
[...]

See you tomorrow, and good night.


Slow night entertainment wise I guess. Not sure who is trolling who, its like a nest of climate change trolls and mixed with those so dedicated they forget to turn on the troll detector. Or the lack of exciting weather drives some insane idk.

If PAt is still lurking, what is your elevation and general NOLA location? I'm concerned you should be battling for short term projects around the city that will even allow long term existence. I hear they are considering adding gates on the east side of the lake to prevent hurricane storm surge. I saw in person how much water that lake was able to take in from the gulf, I have worked on just about every bridge in the south LA area the last 10 years. There was so much water moving into the lake, that the force of the rising water lifted the old twinspans straight up and off the peers. Random fact. Point is, all the water has to go somewhere else if they install the gates, a NW moving hurricane would funnel in an incredible amount of water.
Quoting 277. elioe:



You didn't. But I accounted for the possibility that you thought so. Just in case, as things seemed to become personal. Sorry.



Well, not... at least if I understand correctly which comment you are meaning. I'll repost it with the important part bolded.



And the growth seems to be still above average, according to the PIOMAS graph posted earlier, since the summer volume figures are more anomalously low than the winter figure is now.



Well, comparing growth in ice to the FDD anomaly, their relation is almost the opposite than expected. September ice volumes are falling faster than the April ice volumes.



The important thing is, that specifically this winter (so far), the ice growth rate does not exhibit such "tipping point" behavior as the FDD anomaly does.

What I think is important to make clear here, are the causal connections, as I see them. I don't see the FDD anomaly influencing the ice growth. I see, that this winter, the ice is exceptionally fractured, it's thickness is exceptionally unevenly distributed, and there are exceptionally large patches of open water embedded within the ice cover. And it is this more rough structure of ice cover, which is enhancing the heat flux from the ocean, and as such, it is causing both higher amounts of ice formation and higher temperatures.


I would argue the opposite - the ice is not showing an exceptional uneven distribution of thickness. It is showing a greater uniformity in thinness. The vast majority of the ice that currently exists is first year ice which is thin.

In regards to the formation of ice - yes, ice will form more rapidly in open water (that is not subject to wind waves on a frequent basis). That ice will be very thin compared to ice that has existed for more than one season.
One reason the FDD is calculated as a cumulative measure of how cold it is for how long is because there is a mathematical relationship how thick the ice will be (an estimate of the average thickness). The fact that the volume is so low is due more to the thickness (thinness) that is being observed, not the extent.

Regarding my claim of what you stated. I already checked, and you are correct you were talking about rate of volume growth. My bad, and my apologies.

Addendum: In fact, as the amount of open water increases the rate of volume growth most likely would be greater than that observed when the ice coverage is greater and thicker. As ice thickens it becomes increasingly an insulator, preventing heat exchange between the water below and the air above. I believe that at 3 meters (?) sea ice is effectively an insulator - no heat transfer occurs.
Quoting 165. vis0:

Quoting 33. PaulSweet:


A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?

First this question was put forth 30 years ago as a stall tactic and look where it got us(ofA).

Imagination was the backbone of USofA.  Its why crazy thoughts in other countries or in the USofA that came to bear fruit in the USofA   That (American) desire to bring towards its shore all people with all their different thoughts, ideas as long as respect was what  one thought of first when seeing a human being whose appearance on the surface was not the same as yours, then all was okay.  Go ahead invent a picture-box where Niagra Falls fits into a glass screen no bigger than fishbowl, what?, bicycle builders will build the first plane why not its the USofA,  women will have the same rights as men (50% there at some levels),  want to create peace by building the most destructive weapon go ahead and do it by  joining the intelligent minds of foreigners, think of inventing the icon that is used for an idea go ahead invent the light bulb, invent the same thing but in a much smaller space call it the microchip (just don't tell IBM they thought it was useless) go ahead,  the sit-n-spin which top wxu members use when referencing a stationary TS and the use of the word blob coined by our steamed (can't find his socks) i mean esteemed Grothar.  By maintaining the thought that oil is the only and last direct or indirect of source energy and pass that on to young brains you stifle the young imagination to stop thinking "right out of the box" and that in return creates people in their twenties with a feeling of nothing to do to help cause instead of building on what as kids they imagined thus build it in their twenties they are just regurgitating the ideas of the past generation(s)  which creates very few truly new civilization changing ideas as in move money used to find ways of getting more oil to ways of generating energy from greener sources....watch oil companies will add green dye to oil.
 
(removed weird theory/what i call science, on my zilly blog]


...injoy


"Go ahead invent a picture-box where Niagra Falls fits into a glass screen no bigger than fishbowl"
Television was invented in the 1920s, but black & white sets with 13 channels still predominated 40 years later.

"bicycle builders will build the first plane why not its the USofA"
It was 24 years before Lindberg flew across the Atlantic, and over 50 years before jets began to replace prop planes.

"By maintaining the thought that oil is the only and last direct or indirect of source energy . . ."
I am not suggesting this. I'm just saying that it takes time to transition from one technology to another. Fossil fuels will play a dwindling role over the next few decades as renewable energy becomes more efficient and less costly. Ten years or so ago a single solar panel cost as much as a roof full of panels does, lead-acid batteries were the only practical way to store electricity, and electric cars were almost unheard of. Ten years from now I expect solar photovoltaics to cost less than they do today, new batteries to be developed that will outperform lithium batteries and cost less, and electric cars to be a large percentage of new car sales.
Quoting 280. PedleyCA:

Found these numbers for Average rainfall.

With an average annual rainfall of 24.71 inches, the state of California gets 14.5 less inches of rain than the national average (39.17 inches)

Riverside has had an average rainfall of 12.4 inches over the last 30 years, which is 68% less than the average nationwide, and 50% less than the average in California.


We are above average for this year at 12.84"
Where did you find that? I thought the national average for precipitation was lower. But I am probably wrong :)
Quoting 280. PedleyCA:

Found these numbers for Average rainfall.


With an average annual rainfall of 24.71 inches, the state of California gets 14.5 less inches of rain than the national average (39.17 inches)

Riverside has had an average rainfall of 12.4 inches over the last 30 years, which is 68% less than the average nationwide, and 50% less than the average in California.


We are above average for this year at 12.84"

Congrats on the rain.
Arctic Report Card: Update for 2016
Persistent warming trend and loss of sea ice are triggering extensive Arctic changes
2016 Arctic Report Card
Sea Ice

Highlights
The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent was 4.14 million km2, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average minimum ice extent and tied with 2007 for the second lowest value in the satellite record (1979-2016).
The lowest winter maximum ice extent in the satellite record (1979-2016) occurred on 24 March 2016, at 14.52 million km2, 7% below the 1981-2010 average.
In March 2016, multiyear ice (more than 1 year old) and first-year ice were 22% and 78% of the ice cover, respectively, compared to 45% and 55% in 1985.



Quoting 274. BaltimoreBrian:

Challenger Space Shuttle crew before boarding, January 28, 1986. By central FL standards it was a brisk day.




One of the longest and saddest days for NASA too... I still remember watching it unfold. A friend of mine had one of those mini-tube-tvs that ran on batteries at school (I was in middle school at the time) and we were watching the lift off... I thought it was fake.
Quoting 252. PedleyCA:



10/1/2016 to 01/28/2017=12.84" of rain, lots of weeds growing.....


Are they growing for medical or recreational purposes?

Dakster I was in high school when the Challenger blew up---there were rumors of it by lunchtime but I didn't find out for sure until I got home.
Quoting 285. BaltimoreBrian:

Where did you find that? I thought the national average for precipitation was lower. But I am probably wrong :)


source: https://rainfall.weatherdb.com/l/22096/Riverside-C alifornia
Quoting 289. Dakster:



Are they growing for medical or recreational purposes?




Just your garden variety weeds... Nothing smoke-able......lol
Quoting 288. Dakster:



One of the longest and saddest days for NASA too... I still remember watching it unfold. A friend of mine had one of those mini-tube-tvs that ran on batteries at school (I was in middle school at the time) and we were watching the lift off... I thought it was fake.




The SRB Field joint O ring never stood a chance.








Challenger ,21 years later
By: Patrap , 10:55 AM CST on January 24, 2007




Quoting 287. daddyjames:

...


Arctic/Antarctic sea ice extent until January 27, 2017.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Just ask the professionals:

Comment: Crazy times in the Arctic by Mark C. Serreze.
Earth Magazine - January 23, 2017.
"(...) after studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme."
Thanks Pedley. I found the NOAA National Overview: 2016 and it says this:

"Precipitation averaged across the CONUS in 2016 was 31.70 inches, 1.76 inches above the 20th century average. This was the 24th wettest year on record. Since 1895, precipitation across the CONUS has increased at an average rate of 0.16 inch per decade."

That means the 20th century average was 29.94" according to NOAA. Not trying to cause a dispute, just think the different figures are interesting.
Why are WunderPhotos being removed? :(
Quoting 300. BaltimoreBrian:

A couple of articles from the BBC:

Mongolians protest over air pollution: 'Wake up and smell the smog'

Chile wildfires: Drone footage reveals devastation (with self-executing video)



"Self-executing" - so if I click on that . . . . hmm, better off not doing it.
TheNotoriusDaddyJ, it's from the BBC so I doubt there's malware. But instead of having to click on the video to start it it starts by itself. I put up warnings when I that because there are a couple of readers of my blog who have slow internet. I hope that's not a 'new & improved' feature on bbc.com because I think self-executing video is annoying. ABC news is the worst.
Quoting 296. BaltimoreBrian:

Thanks Pedley. I found the NOAA National Overview: 2016 and it says this:

"Precipitation averaged across the CONUS in 2016 was 31.70 inches, 1.76 inches above the 20th century average. This was the 24th wettest year on record. Since 1895, precipitation across the CONUS has increased at an average rate of 0.16 inch per decade."

That means the 20th century average was 29.94" according to NOAA. Not trying to cause a dispute, just think the different figures are interesting.


I was surprised when I saw those figures and we were 50% of Calif and 33% of the US averages. I knew we were dry but....



National Snow & Ice Data Center

Advancing knowledge of Earth's frozen regions
NSIDC manages and distributes scientific data, creates tools for data access, supports data users, performs scientific research, and educates the public about the cryosphere.

Gadzook's !

Arctic sea ice extent figures from JAXA:

January 25 2017: 13,216,098 km2
January 26, 2017: 13,138,957 km2 ( -77,141 km2 )
January 27, 2017: 13,077,599 km2 ( -61,358 km2 )


For West Palm Beach...


starting to get better here
Quoting 303. Grothar:


quick shot sometimes nothing sometimes a lot we shall see
Quoting 309. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

quick shot sometimes nothing sometimes a lot we shall see


I, Grothar, promise you this will be the greatest snowstorm ever, trust me. You will be thanking me for years. It will be so great, very, very, great. I read somewhere that it will be phenomenal, so it must be true. Don't believe what you hear anywhere else. Believe me!!
It's 49 degrees with cold rain, why couldn't it be 15 degrees colder like a few weekends ago, with that kind of set up it would be snowing.

Largo, FL
11:56 PM EST on January 28, 2017 (GMT -0500) Largo Fl | Report | Change Station
Rain
49.4 °F
Feels Like 49 °F
N0.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 0.0 mph
Quoting 310. Grothar:



I, Grothar, promise you this will be the greatest snowstorm ever, trust me. You will be thanking me for years. It will be so great, very, very, great. I read somewhere that it will be phenomenal, so it must be true. Don't believe what you hear anywhere else. Believe me!!


I see a Cabinet position being offered to you in the near future. You are very likely to turn down the offer once you see what is already in the cabinet.
Quoting 299. hotroddan:

Why are WunderPhotos being removed? :(

I don't know but I'm bummed about it too.
I guess us photographers don't bring in enough money for them. There are hundreds, if not thousands of photographers pretty downtrodden right now. They will be deleting almost two million photos, most of which are weather related. I guess weather pictures don't mean anything to a weather company or whatever IBM calls themselves. We are devastated, to say the least!
Quoting 312. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I see a Cabinet position being offered to you in the near future. You are very likely to turn down the offer once you see what is already in the cabinet.



Grothar will not be offered a cabinet position as he is touting a snowstorm entering the US from a foreign country. Only locally made weather is acceptable. Now, if Grothar was touting building a wall to keep all future Alberta Clippers out of the US, then he could be the next head of NOAA.
Quoting 279. s2y0r0u1s:

Thanks for pointing that out to me, I assumed extent with that 15.2million km2 value and certainly needed to educate myself further on the topic. I'm glad to say I now do understand the difference in great detail. With that said according to the NSIDC, "if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger." The lower image says at the bottom that the area is 15.2 million km2, you would expect an extent near 16 million km2 (+/- 0.1 million km2), however 16 million km2 has never been observed in January and an area of 15.2 million km2 has been observed a handful of times in the last 39 years of observational history, which happened around the end of February/beginning of March. Jan 27th Maximum of Maxima is actually around 14.2 million km2. In reality the area anomaly is -0.675 million km2 not near -4 million km2 as the two maps imply.

My impression still remains the same, the "Maximum of Maxima" doesn't represent any Jan 27th in observational history and is thus an unfair representation, furthermore showing a maximum that has been obtained a few times is unfair, that an average, even if its the average of a decade from 1979-1989 (which shows the average area being around 14 million km2 at the highest ice extent in the year), is a better way of representing the data. I certainly agree that the sea ice has been dreadful this year and something to keep an eye on, but the data presented seems to me to be misconstrued. Jan 27th should be compared to Jan 27th, not the highest maximum ever observed at any time in the year. Its the same as showing the Minimum of Minima from the end of Summer and comparing it to Jan 27th and pointing out how much more ice there is then the minimum.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing /YearlyData/maximum-of-maxima
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing /daily-data




It depends on the context of the comparison. If someone were claiming that we've already reached maximum extent (unlikely) then such a comparison could be made. If someone were just looking at the daily numbers, that could be implied when they see several days of losses.

BUT, that inference cannot be made. Daily numbers are "noisy". The data gets re-analyzed and corrected, usually on a monthly basis. For most purposes monthly averages are used. Corrected daily data is used when establishing max/min records. But the initial data should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when seasonal adjustments are made (when they swap out masks).

Regardless, comparing daily data has little scientific value as the variance is so large as to make such comparisons practically meaningless. Comparing a daily value against a max/min is a little more relevant but again you can't draw any serious conclusion about such a comparison. Comparing monthly averages though are a much better measure of what's going on.
Quoting 263. elioe:



I'm comparing late Januaries of 2015, 2016 and 2017. And which "official numbers" you are referring to, PIOMAS?


The daily numbers from those data sets should be taken with a grain of salt, especially the PIOMAS volume numbers. They usually get corrected on a monthly basis during re-analysis. In addition, daily numbers aren't very useful for comparisons (variance is too high). It's much more relevant to compare monthly averages, or even weekly averages).

Quoting 263. elioe:
The chart is from JAXA, daddyjames was the first to post it. Here's the full chart once again.



It shows, that while the sea ice volume was extraordinarily low up to the beginning of November (I suppose it was also record-breakingly low by some 1000 km³, but can't confirm it, since the chart shows Novembers only back to 2012), since then the sea ice growth has proceeded in a manner typical to winters 2012-13 to 2015-16, and the late January figure is has come very close to 2013 and 2016 values, even though still being the lowest.


If you're going to perform that type of analysis then yearly comparisons aren't very useful. You want a climatological average, and compare the month/year in question against that average. Otherwise you're going to come to a misleading result that is biased by your choices, especially if a particular year had any anomalous events. It's a tactic deniers use to make rather stark events seem like "business as usual".

And no, I'm not implying that you're a denier. All I'm saying is that if you're going to make claims based on a comparison make sure you're using the proper approach. In this case, doing a year over year comparison of ice growth rates isn't very revealing of anything and can be misconstrued.
I see Weather underground switched to only Centigrade temperatures today. Is their a way to display Fahrenheit also?
I have been re-reading, for the umpteenth time, The Lives of a Cell, by Lewis Thomas, and a paragraph in the last essay, "The World's Biggest Membrane", seems relevant:

"Now we are protected against lethal ultraviolet rays by a narrow rim of ozone, thirty miles out. We are safe, well ventilated, and incubated, provided we can avoid technologies that might fiddle with that ozone, or shift the levels of carbon dioxide. Oxygen is not a major worry for us, unless we let fly with enough nuclear explosives to kill off the green cells in the sea; if we do that, of course, we are in for strangling."
drizzled and cool all night. kind of rare weather for the east cent coast of florida
Quoting 319. dipchip:

I see Weather underground switched to only Centigrade temperatures today. Is their a way to display Fahrenheit also?

Mine is in F. The gear icon in the upper right hand corner is where the choice is made. No idea why yours switched though.
Quoting 319. dipchip:

I see Weather underground switched to only Centigrade temperatures today. Is their a way to display Fahrenheit also?

How big is your beerglass there? Tell me in liters, not pints nor gallons please.
From Bloomberg;

Trump Wants to Downplay Global Warming. Louisiana Won’t Let Him

“Mother Nature is threatening to kick our people out.”

[...]

Bren Haase, chief of planning for the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA), was presenting his team’s updated Coastal Master Plan. Five years in the making and comprising 6,000 pages of text and appendices, the document details $50 billion in investments over five decades in ridges, barrier islands, and marsh creation. Tucked into the plan was a number whose significance surpasses all others: 14 feet, the height beyond which Haase’s agency has concluded homes couldn’t feasibly be elevated.

In areas where a so-called 100-year flood is expected to produce between 3 feet and 14 feet of water, the plan recommends paying for homes to be raised and communities preserved. In places where flood depths are expected to exceed that height, residents would be offered money to leave. “We’re trying to make the best decisions for the most people,” said Haase, adding that Louisiana’s strategy could become a model for other states. “The plan is really a framework to make those tough decisions.”

[...]


A home in Plaquemines Parish, La., that’s been elevated to protect it from floods.Derick Hingle/Bloomberg

Elsewhere in the state the end could come sooner. Near the top of the list is Plaquemines Parish. The towns that dot the ever-narrowing strip of land have fewer people than they used to. In the 2000 census, Empire had 2,211 residents. Then Katrina hit; by 2010, census takers recorded a population of only 993. Many homes are trailers perched on cinder blocks.

If Haase’s 14-foot threshold takes effect, Empire could get a lot smaller. Davie Shoring, a Louisiana company that elevates homes throughout the state, recently raised a home in Empire 24 feet off the ground—because the authorities said that was the height required to protect against floods. (“There’s nothing particular about 14 feet,” says Tom Haralson, the company’s director of sales and marketing—going higher just costs more.)

One of the people who stayed in Empire after Katrina is Richie Blink, who serves as Plaquemines community outreach coordinator for the Restore the Mississippi Delta Coalition, a grouping of conservation and environmental groups. He says area residents survive by hunting and fishing. “They’re not going to do well in a random suburb somewhere.” Still, like many interviewed, Blink broadly agreed with what the coastal authority is trying to do. “You can’t fight nature, and we shouldn’t continue to invest in areas that are not savable,” he says.

Others are defiant. Darilyn Demolle-Turner, a member of the parish school board, says her constituents got by without government help after Katrina, and they can do it again. “Resettlement and relocation, it’s not an option,” she says. “We’re not just giving up because they say that we have to.”

[...]

Click here to read full article.
March for Science:
‏@ScienceMarchDC

A message from the organizers #ScienceMarch



Also - no official date set. Don't believe rumors! NO DATE YET!

Statement by @UCSUSA #ScienceMarch stands in solidarity with our fellow scientists who are detained & unable to work




"The pursuit of truth in science transcends national boundaries. It takes us beyond hatred and anger and fear."

- Arthur Eddington

326. elioe
Quoting 318. Xyrus2000:

If you're going to perform that type of analysis then yearly comparisons aren't very useful. You want a climatological average, and compare the month/year in question against that average. Otherwise you're going to come to a misleading result that is biased by your choices, especially if a particular year had any anomalous events. It's a tactic deniers use to make rather stark events seem like "business as usual".

And no, I'm not implying that you're a denier. All I'm saying is that if you're going to make claims based on a comparison make sure you're using the proper approach. In this case, doing a year over year comparison of ice growth rates isn't very revealing of anything and can be misconstrued.


Well, if year-to-year comparison of ice growth rates is misleading, wouldn't similarly the comparison made by eg. Mr. Eric Holthaus regarding the FDD anomaly be misleading? I think that his tweet does not face similar criticism here as my ice growth rate comparisons, because the tweet can be used better to portray doom. Not because it would be any more valid than my year-to-year comparison.

The FDD anomaly is claimed to show a tipping point. Even when the absolute amount of FDD so far is plotted, difference is remarkable. The ice growth rates do not show any significant response to that. When we combine these two together:

Plot the FDD versus cumulative ice volume growth. You'll see, that the typical relation between those two totally breaks down this winter.

And if the FDD this year is indicative of a tipping point, then the heat transfer coefficient is also indicative of a tipping point.
Quoting 326. elioe:



Well, if year-to-year comparison of ice growth rates is misleading, wouldn't similarly the comparison made by eg. Mr. Eric Holthaus regarding the FDD anomaly be misleading? I think that his tweet does not face similar criticism here as my ice growth rate comparisons, because the tweet can be used better to portray doom. Not because it would be any more valid than my year-to-year comparison.

The FDD anomaly is claimed to show a tipping point. Even when the absolute amount of FDD so far is plotted, difference is remarkable. The ice growth rates do not show any significant response to that. When we combine these two together:

Plot the FDD versus cumulative ice volume growth. You'll see, that the typical relation between those two totally breaks down this winter.

And if the FDD this year is indicative of a tipping point, then the heat transfer coefficient is also indicative of a tipping point.
Whenever someone accuses a credible and widely respected person such as Mr. Holthaus of "portraying doom" simply by acknowledging reality, then follows that with complaints that he himself is being ignored because he's the lone person telling the truth, I tend to ignore that accuser. FYI, I think you'll find I'm not alone.

Xyrus has been very patient and thorough in explaining reality to you, and just why day-to-day comparisons of the type you're making are often nearly worthless, so I've no need to repeat the things he's said. Instead, I'll say this: the Arctic sea ice extent is lower than it's ever been for this date. And in about a week, we'll see that volume is also at a record low. In fact, the situation in the Arctic is more extraordinary and extreme than even Arctic experts were able to imagine just a few years ago: record low volume, extent, and area; abnormally warm waters; blasts of absurdly warm air; wave action that's churned once thick, fast ice into slush; storms that prematurely flush ice southward through the Fram Strait. And it's still only January. The sun has been creeping north for a month, and we're only 6-8 weeks or so from the annual ASI maximum. After that, it's all downhill for the ice, and this summer promises to be a doozy. Of course, storms and clouds caused by the excess open water and available energy may put a damper on the annual minimum, as happened in 2016. But the expert consensus is that those who watch the Arctic are in a for quite a ride.

If I may make a suggestion, head over to Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum and raise some of the points you've raised here. There are a lot of really smart and knowledgeable people there, including some whose very life's work is the Cryosphere, and I know from experience they'd be more than eager to help you out with any misunderstandings you may have. Note, however, that while Neven doesn't have any patience for those who needlessly exaggerate to make things seem worse than they are, he also has absolutely no patience at all for concern trolling. So if you go, just be polite and professional, and be willing to admit that others might just know more than you. Sometimes much more.

Good luck...
This series of threads started with a question I posted about the graph in Holthaus' tweet. I appreciate everyone's input, whether they're agreeable or disagreeable to some. Personally, I don't view any of the respondents or anyone engaged in the discussion as a troll.

When there are questions, explanations, discussions, disagreements, etc., about topics on here many people benefit. Links, graphics, different ways to look at data, different interpretations of data and the implications of data - these are all sources and methods for us to learn more.

I find when a couple or a few people really dig into a topic, usually when there's a bit of disagreement, this makes for some of the most interesting and substantive exchanges on here. Hopefully there will continue to be such postings.
Good Morning; just noting that regardless of ice gains or losses in any given year, or short-term seasonal period, for the Arctic regions two things are certain and not subject to debate; a) there is a huge difference between "thin" ice that melts much easier in the Spring/Summer and the thicker ice that we used to see in past decades in those zones approaching the Arctic/Sub-Arctic bays and waters; and b) the Arctic has warmed at the fastest rate of any other place on the Earth to the average number of 12 degrees F over the past few decades. That particular figure alone represents a tipping point IMHO.
From last Thursday's Guardian:

Origin Energy ignores coal seam gas well leaks, whistleblower says
Statement of claim lodged at federal court alleges that a general manager said company calculated it was cheaper to pay fines than comply with regulations

Origin Energy has had a deliberate policy of ignoring coal seam gas wells that have been leaking and an offshore gas well that has potentially been leaking for more than a decade, a corporate whistleblower has alleged.

The claims, filed in a revised statement of claim to the federal court and denied by Origin Energy, suggest Origin also failed to properly measure the amount of gas it was producing and therefore underpaid its royalties to the Queensland government – something the whistleblower says senior management were alerted to but also ignored.

The allegations were made by Sally McDow, a former senior manager of compliance at Origin, who has launched a case that will test Australia’s corporate whistleblower legislation.

Some of the allegations were made in an earlier statement of claim filed with the court, and reported by News Corp Australia, but the new statement of claim – first reported by Fairfax Media on Tuesday – goes much further and contains many more details.

The new allegations led anti-coal seam gas activists to call for a complete overhaul of self-regulation in the oil and gas industry, and for a special investigation into Origin’s compliance with environmental and other regulatory and legislative requirements.

McDow outlines a staggering number of incidents where Origin allegedly failed to properly comply with legal or regulatory requirements, and where it failed to report incidents either in official internal systems or to regulators.
Full article
Quoting 323. EmsiNasklug:


How big is your beerglass there? Tell me in liters, not pints nor gallons please.


I believe it is litres NOT liters.
Quoting 323. EmsiNasklug:


How big is your beerglass there? Tell me in liters, not pints nor gallons please.


I believe it is litres NOT liters.
Wow its the end of January and absolutely no snow on the ground! It would be real nice if you people send over yours! But seriously, no snow in January in Newark suburbs is remarkable!
334. elioe
Quoting 327. Neapolitan:

Whenever someone accuses a credible and widely respected person such as Mr. Holthaus of "portraying doom" simply by acknowledging reality, then follows that with complaints that he himself is being ignored because he's the lone person telling the truth, I tend to ignore that accuser. FYI, I think you'll find I'm not alone.


I suggest you read my comment again. That "portraying doom" was not directed towards Mr. Holthaus. It was directed towards certain WU members.

Quoting 327. Neapolitan:
If I may make a suggestion, head over to Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum and raise some of the points you've raised here. There are a lot of really smart and knowledgeable people there, including some whose very life's work is the Cryosphere, and I know from experience they'd be more than eager to help you out with any misunderstandings you may have.


Thanks for suggestion, I will. This discussion will not lead anywhere anymore without professional opinion. And don't worry, I will only have to make one comment. ;)
Quoting 314. RenoSoHill:

I guess us photographers don't bring in enough money for them. There are hundreds, if not thousands of photographers pretty downtrodden right now. They will be deleting almost two million photos, most of which are weather related. I guess weather pictures don't mean anything to a weather company or whatever IBM calls themselves. We are devastated, to say the least!

They should let the users download all the photos and make a database so that they won't be erased forever. And since storage is pretty cheap these days it would be possible.
Quoting 318. Xyrus2000:



. . . . It's much more relevant to compare monthly averages . . .


Done. Using the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data.

Looking at the Decadal Average of the first four months of the Arctic Freeze Season:



What should be most concerning is the massive decrease in the y-intercept over the last few decades.

Looking at the yearly average of the rate of change (the rate of change/month averaged over either the first 4 months of freeze season - shown in black; or the entire freeze season of 8 months - shown in blue).




The rate of change in volume showed a pronounced increase since 2011, but for the first 4 months of the 2016-2017 melt season has fallen from the rate observed in the previous 5 years.

What this shows is just the rate of change (accumulation) of volume of Arctic ice during the freeze season. It does not examine what mechanisms are responsible, and no conclusions regarding as to why this is happening can be drawn from the information displayed. Nor does it demonstrate whether a rate is significantly different for any decade or year.


Edited: for clarity (I hope). Removed melt and replaced with freeze (as that is what I am showing).
I had the "mini-Arctic" experience in Mass this past Christmas with all of the frozen snow/ice on the ground (and seeing it for the first time in my life) which got the wheels in my mind spinning when it was in the teens every morning but it never got above 36-40 during the day before the sun started to set in the early afternoon again. That 12 degree average increase in the Arctic regions makes all the difference when the temps rise above the freezing point (32F) for a longer period of time, particularly in the late Fall and early Spring, which makes ice recovery more difficult. There might be some anomalies in any given location but that may have more to do with the ocean currents underneath a particular location or the jet stream/wind patterns which can vary. This has been the case in a few Antarctic locations where ice has been increasing in one region but some research has suggested that this has been due to an altered jet stream pattern blowing cooler air (and ice snow) towards the coast in a few specific locations (while still losing ice in other parts of the Antarctic).
"If the wall it goes up will the temperature drop
Will the oil rigs that litter this land get pulled up
Will we find some wild new way to save where we’re at
Would you do it? No, I doubt it where’s the money in that?’"


Quoting 331. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I believe it is litres NOT liters.


litres = European spelling
liters = USA (and others?) spelling
Quoting 310. Grothar:



I, Grothar, promise you this will be the greatest snowstorm ever, trust me. You will be thanking me for years. It will be so great, very, very, great. I read somewhere that it will be phenomenal, so it must be true. Don't believe what you hear anywhere else. Believe me!!


I hear smart people, very smart people talking about snow the third week of February, huge.. it's going to be awsome, really awsome, great again.

Quoting 339. daddyjames:



litres = European spelling
liters = USA (and others?) spelling


Yep.

Incidentally "Sleet" in the UK is a mixture of rain and wet snow, not the ice pellets we use the word to describe in the U.S.
And common people like myself looking out my window at the moment and seeing every plant/flower in the front and back-yard in bloom in late January for the first time in the 16 years I have lived in Tallahassee.....................
Quoting 302. BaltimoreBrian:

TheNotoriusDaddyJ, it's from the BBC so I doubt there's malware. But instead of having to click on the video to start it it starts by itself. I put up warnings when I that because there are a couple of readers of my blog who have slow internet. I hope that's not a 'new & improved' feature on bbc.com because I think self-executing video is annoying. ABC news is the worst.


I never liked videos anyway. I can extract information faster reading.
Quoting 290. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster I was in high school when the Challenger blew up---there were rumors of it by lunchtime but I didn't find out for sure until I got home.


Graduate school FSU. Saw it blow up on TV.

I always remember the Morton Thiokol management team meeting telling the engineers who wanted
to postpone because of cold

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats" The engineers were overrruled.

People should have gone to jail for that one!
Quoting 344. georgevandenberghe:



Graduate school FSU. Saw it blow up on TV.

I always remember the Morton Thiokol management team meeting telling the engineers who wanted
to postpone because of cold

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats" The engineers were overrruled.

People should have gone to jail for that one!


My Uncle was one of those engineers.
@Disco_EPA now tweeting photos from 1971, the earliest days of the EPA, when pollution and hazardous conditions were commonplace.

Discover EPA:
‏@Disco_EPA

Ranchers report excessive livestock deaths as Atlas Chemical Plant belches in the background. Protecting the environment protects ranchers.

Quoting 33. PaulSweet:



A transition away from fossil fuels will take decades. In the meantime, how do we produce solar cells, windmills, batteries to store the energy for when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, etc., if all the fossil fuel power plants are shut down?


Search for the Super Battery

Explore the hidden world of energy storage and how it holds the keys to a greener future. Airing February 1, 2017 at 9 pm on PBS

NOVA

GM's Chevrolet Bolt electric car wins North American Car of the Year

General Motors picked up the crown jewel in the trifecta of trophies Monday for its new long-range electric car, the Chevrolet Bolt.

The Bolt was named North American Car of the Year, beating two conventionally powered luxury sedans, the Genesis G90 and the Volvo S90, in an announcement delivered at the North American International Auto Show.


Link
Blah blah blah..cherry picking at its best...records are meant to be broken especially when you take into account the relatively short period that they have been recorded.....
meanwhile..Didnt I just read where the Llamas were freezing to death in South America?....snow in the Sahara...snow down to the waters edge in the Med...antelopes cougers and other wildlife suffering out west....Northern Hem snow cover as high as it can go almost record....why do I only hear of heat waves here?....
re:
349. fishnski

To answer your question;

Either you haven't been around long, or you don't read well. :-/
Quoting 333. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Wow its the end of January and absolutely no snow on the ground! It would be real nice if you people send over yours! But seriously, no snow in January in Newark suburbs is remarkable!
Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area in years.
Quoting 351. washingtonian115:

Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area.


I'm sitting just under 2" total for the entire winter season back to early Nov. here...:(
Not happy.
Quoting 351. washingtonian115:

Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area.
Hoping you all will get some snow at least. I know the kids must be disappointed. I hate to bring AGW into this, but I suppose we can expect to see less snow in a warming world, unfortunately. We haven't officially recorded freezing in Tampa in probably about 5 years.
Quoting 351. washingtonian115:

Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area.


Same here in Des Moines , we have little, maybe an inch but it will be gone this week. You would think it was El Niño year. My mom in Deep East Texas reports three days of winter this year.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 341. georgevandenberghe:



Yep.

Incidentally "Sleet" in the UK is a mixture of rain and wet snow, not the ice pellets we use the word to describe in the U.S.


I have always understood sleet to be the mix of snow and rain. Our weather forecasts call ice pellets "ice pellets".
Am going to ask this question more than once.

Probably multiple time as the forum disappears with each new blog. Maybe Dr. Masters will see and comment.

First, I am a technician, I am just now learning R programming and calculus, I am not a scientist nor engineer of any sort.

But, have had sodas in a cooler. I have noticed that as the ice in a cooler turns to a watery slush, the sodas seems colder and my hand gets much colder when I dip it in to grab the next one. It seems to me that the broken and slushy ice in the Arctic is doing the same for our world. However, when it is gone, it will no longer be able to keep us cool.

If I am correct, then it follows that for a few years we will have this slightly warmer climate, but once the ice is gone, the rest, especially the northern hemisphere will get quite a bit warmer much faster. In other words, if we start say, June first, with a mostly ice free arctic, then there will be nothing to cool the current that keeps the west coast of the United States cool in the summer, and nothing to cool the current that keeps the United Kindom cool in the summer.

And, the difference engines that drive the Gulf Stream and its other associated currents will cease to function.

With the current rate of decline, we should be able to narrow down the window of this ice free condition and start laying out the consequences now.

Can anyone speak to this?

Cheers
Qazulight
Chili's are supposed to be hot :)

Quoting 359. Doom2pro:

Chili's are supposed to be hot :)



Yes, but actual combustion usually is considered going too far.
Quoting 332. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I believe it is litres NOT liters.

o-oh, I think you're write.
Liter is the german word, though ...
Quoting 358. Qazulight:
[...]

And, the difference engines that drive the Gulf Stream and its other associated currents will cease to function.

With the current rate of decline, we should be able to narrow down the window of this ice free condition and start laying out the consequences now.

Can anyone speak to this?

Cheers
Qazulight


I would think the consequences are fairly easy to extrapolate.

Quoting 326. elioe:



Well, if year-to-year comparison of ice growth rates is misleading, wouldn't similarly the comparison made by eg. Mr. Eric Holthaus regarding the FDD anomaly be misleading? I think that his tweet does not face similar criticism here as my ice growth rate comparisons, because the tweet can be used better to portray doom. Not because it would be any more valid than my year-to-year comparison.

The FDD anomaly is claimed to show a tipping point. Even when the absolute amount of FDD so far is plotted, difference is remarkable. The ice growth rates do not show any significant response to that. When we combine these two together:

Plot the FDD versus cumulative ice volume growth. You'll see, that the typical relation between those two totally breaks down this winter.

And if the FDD this year is indicative of a tipping point, then the heat transfer coefficient is also indicative of a tipping point.


elioe, that is an incorrect comparison. There is a power law relationship between FDD and estimation of thickness of sea ice given by the formula (one of several I assume):

Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (C)^0.58 LINK

So directly comparing the cumulative volume with FDD is not appropriate. Nor would the comparison with rates of increase in volume. You would have to control for the changes in extent/area.

Plot the volume versus extent/area, take the slope of that relationship and that would give you the rate of change of thickness. Then compare that with the FDD and you would make a valid comparison.
Quoting 359. Doom2pro:

Chili's are supposed to be hot :)


I reckon you mean chillies.
And then, the axend is for genitive, not for plural!
Quoting 351. washingtonian115:

Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area.


I was born in Washington D.C. (1962) and then we moved south of the city to the Mount Vernon area. We lived there for 16 years. I remember many very disappointed Winters as a kid, when we didn't get any decent snow. Our house was on the top of a really steep hill and a very popular sledding spot.

Then we would get the occasional year when we would get slammed with a good snow storm. One year we were out of school from around Dec. 10th or so (from a heavy snowfall) until January (after Christmas break). That was a great Winter to be a kid in the D.C. area. I also remember a year when we got a big snow right before Christmas.
Quoting 358. Qazulight:

(snip)
But, have had sodas in a cooler. I have noticed that as the ice in a cooler turns to a watery slush, the sodas seems colder and my hand gets much colder when I dip it in to grab the next one. It seems to me that the broken and slushy ice in the Arctic is doing the same for our world. However, when it is gone, it will no longer be able to keep us cool.

If I am correct, then it follows that for a few years we will have this slightly warmer climate, but once the ice is gone, the rest, especially the northern hemisphere will get quite a bit warmer much faster. In other words, if we start say, June first, with a mostly ice free arctic, then there will be nothing to cool the current that keeps the west coast of the United States cool in the summer, and nothing to cool the current that keeps the United Kindom cool in the summer.

And, the difference engines that drive the Gulf Stream and its other associated currents will cease to function.

With the current rate of decline, we should be able to narrow down the window of this ice free condition and start laying out the consequences now.

Can anyone speak to this?

Cheers
Qazulight
The "slush" in the cooler is essentially the same temperature when the ice just starts to melt as when the last ice finishes melting -- 32 degrees F. One big difference is that when the cooler is full of only ice, when you reach in for a beer your hand usually doesn't come in much contact with the ice so you don't feel it -- but the ice is probably a good deal colder than 32 degrees F -- your freezer where the ice is made ought to be about 0 degrees F. But when the ice in the cooler is slush you contact that 32 degree water-ice mixture more completely and the water transfers the heat from your hand much more efficiently than air, so you feel the loss of warmth (cold) much more. The problem in the "frozen" North is that formerly the ice was around 0 degrees F or colder, but now that it is melting rapidly, most of it, and the sea water, is closer to freezing temperature, (actually about 29 degrees F, the freezing point of salt sea water). Thus we have an out-of-control warming well above the normal temperatures of the Arctic Ocean and getting those temperatures back will probably require a shut-down of our neighboring fusion reactor.
Quoting 358. Qazulight:

Am going to ask this question more than once.

Probably multiple time as the forum disappears with each new blog. Maybe Dr. Masters will see and comment.

First, I am a technician, I am just now learning R programming and calculus, I am not a scientist nor engineer of any sort.

But, have had sodas in a cooler. I have noticed that as the ice in a cooler turns to a watery slush, the sodas seems colder and my hand gets much colder when I dip it in to grab the next one. It seems to me that the broken and slushy ice in the Arctic is doing the same for our world. However, when it is gone, it will no longer be able to keep us cool.

If I am correct, then it follows that for a few years we will have this slightly warmer climate, but once the ice is gone, the rest, especially the northern hemisphere will get quite a bit warmer much faster. In other words, if we start say, June first, with a mostly ice free arctic, then there will be nothing to cool the current that keeps the west coast of the United States cool in the summer, and nothing to cool the current that keeps the United Kindom cool in the summer.

And, the difference engines that drive the Gulf Stream and its other associated currents will cease to function.

With the current rate of decline, we should be able to narrow down the window of this ice free condition and start laying out the consequences now.

Can anyone speak to this?

Cheers
Qazulight


The one variable that you have not accounted for in your analogy is the warming due to insolation in the Arctic. The warming would occur more rapidly as the darker ocean water would absorb more heat from sunlight alone, resulting in more heat stored in the ocean and the atmosphere on a whole.
Also, your cooler acts as an insulator - not allowing the heat to escape to the surrounding environment.
The slush water also feels colder for two reasons. One, the ice water makes greater contact with the temperature sensors in your skin than ice alone. Two, the heat capacity of ice - the amount required to melt ice versus that to warm water - is half that of warming up water. So, when you place your hand in ice water versus ice alone the amount of heat withdrawn from your hand in ice water is greater than the heat pulled from your hand in ice alone, due to increased contact and increased heat capacity of the medium.

This also explains why, when you are very cold, lukewarm water can feel very hot. You body senses how much heat is being transferred, not an absolute temperature. Essentially our perception of temperature is somewhat relative.
.
369. elioe
Quoting 364. daddyjames:



Even though there is an empirical relationship established, in this case it has the drawback, that the FDD graph shows areas north of 80N, whereas PIOMAS shows ice both north and south of that latitude. But still I find a pattern between those two. Here's the graph I created.

Blue lines: freezing seasons 2010-11 to 2015-16. Red line: this freezing season to December. PIOMAS January figure is likely to be somewhere near the red circle.

Quoting 369. elioe:



Even though there is an empirical relationship established, in this case it has the drawback, that the FDD graph shows areas north of 80N, whereas PIOMAS shows ice both north and south of that latitude. But still I find a pattern between those two. Here's the graph I created.

Blue lines: freezing seasons 2010-11 to 2015-16. Red line: this freezing season to December. PIOMAS January figure is likely to be somewhere near the red circle.




Yes, but that does not control for change in extent/area. So, you cannot determine what exactly is causing the change observed in volume. There are two different mechanisms. Is the change observed due to a rapid change in extent or a rapid change in thickness? You cannot say based upon your plot.
Quoting 324. Xandra:


A home in Plaquemines Parish, La., that%u2019s been elevated to%u202Fprotect it%u202Ffrom%u202Ffloods.Derick Hingle/Bloomberg

Text in quote omitted.

%uFFFDI have worked in construction all of my life and have worked for an engineering firm for over a decade. I was evolved in preparing detailed drawing on many home elevation projects in the New Orleans area for just about all of the shoring companies. In regards to Davie Shoring, when I first observed how they were connecting the raised home to the piers it gave me concern. Davie was was using rolled metal strapping embedded into the poured concrete of the cells of the concrete block. They would just nail the strap to the nearest floor joist rim joist . This was not an%uFFFDexceptable method. The strap is subject to tearing, and in fact, this tearing has already been documented. In speaking with Davie Shoring personnel, their argument was they had been doing it that way for years. My response was; that only means you been doing wrong for years. During a hurricane, or any high wind event, you get uplift, lateral forces, and rotational forces on the structure. It is nothing short of stupidity to raise a house to such a level to protect it from flood waters near the coast that could only occur from the wind forces associated with that of a hurricane while not at the same time protecting the home from the wind. Davie Shoring no longer uses rolled strapping to connect a subfloor to the piers, at least from the last time I have drawn detailed drawings for the engineering firm that was retained by Davie.

But I see a lot wrong in photo. The piers are segmental concrete blocks that sit on a concrete foundation. The house, which was built first and later raised, may not have been engineered %uFFFDto withstand the winds that it will now encounter at such a high elevation, and if the connection is only at the subfloor the house, the house may simply blow away leaving only the subfloor. An elevated house like the one in the photo will be subject to extreme uplift and with a sloped roof only increases this uplift similar to that of an airplane wing. Also, zoom in on the photo at the front right corner of the foundation. That does not look like a concrete slab with proper grade beams. It appears, and I'll stress appears, that you can see the bottom of the slab. This could be debris along the slab, but it looks like a gap between the bottom of the slab and ground.
Edit: Also how are the segmental piers connected to the slab? The higher you go the forces are encreased at the base of the piers. It's a little thing called leverage.

The proper way, or best way, to build near a coast prone to hurricanes is to drive piling deep enough to support anticipated lateral forces as the piling extends upward from grade. Furthermore. The piling should extend all the way to the roof line of the structure. To put it in simple terms. The structure should be built around the the piling not just sitting on top of piers or pilings.%uFFFD

Need proof?



Sent from my iPad

All Gone.. No rain in 10-Day forecast and getting some 70's and Santa Ana wind conditions, 16% RH here....
Quoting 370. daddyjames:



Yes, but that does not control for change in extent/area. So, you cannot determine what exactly is causing the change observed in volume. There are two different mechanisms. Is the change observed due to a rapid change in extent or a rapid change in thickness? You cannot say based upon your plot.


And compared to what I presented below, the rate of change in volume is much reduced this year compared with the previous five years.

Quoting 336. daddyjames:




Looking at the yearly average of the rate of change (the rate of change/month averaged over either the first 4 months of freeze season - shown in black; or the entire freeze season of 8 months - shown in blue).



Although one cannot determine the mechanism as I stated before, comparison of the rates of both the 4 month and 8 month shows that there are different mechanisms affecting both - a slow start does not necessarily imply a slow finish.
Quoting 349. fishnski:

Blah blah blah..cherry picking at its best...records are meant to be broken especially when you take into account the relatively short period that they have been recorded.....
meanwhile..Didnt I just read where the Llamas were freezing to death in South America?....snow in the Sahara...snow down to the waters edge in the Med...antelopes cougers and other wildlife suffering out west....Northern Hem snow cover as high as it can go almost record....why do I only hear of heat waves here?....
It is nice to be warm in the winter, so I hope it stays this way.
Good afternoon/evening with an updated on the wildfires in Chile:

Chile's forest fires partly due to poor planning, say fire chiefs
The Guardian, Piotr Kozak in Santiago and Jonathan Watts, Sunday 29 January 2017 19.00 GMT
Fire brigade chiefs said that poor preparation for climate change and large monoculture plantations have contributed to Chile’s worst forest fires in recent history, as the human, economic and environmental effects continued to grow.
Eleven people have died in the blazes, which have devastated 233,000 sq miles (more than three times the size of Hong Kong) in recent weeks.
Despite support from US and Russian supertanker aircraft and the arrival of specialist teams from other countries, the national emergency office acknowledged on Saturday that fewer than half of the 110 fires are under control.
Entire communities have been razed to the ground. Chile’s capital, Santiago – which is several hundred miles away, is shrouded in haze. Firefighters are trying to prevent the flames from reaching Constitución, a town of 46,000 people. ...

More (including a photo gallery) see link above.
Quoting 370. daddyjames:



Yes, but that does not control for change in extent/area. So, you cannot determine what exactly is causing the change observed in volume. There are two different mechanisms. Is the change observed due to a rapid change in extent or a rapid change in thickness? You cannot say based upon your plot.


That is correct. There a multiple ways volume can be affected. Salinity, warm water intrusion, wind, transport, temperature, etc. Some of this have an impact on area/extent. Some of these have an impact on thickness. Some impact both.

As an example, you can have an increase in the number of freezing days. But if the dominant wind patterns favor export and that export is mainly the thicker ice along the northern coasts, you can easily wind up losing volume. Conversely, you could have virtually no transport but fewer freezing days and wind up with an increase in volume.

The cryosphere is a pretty complex system, and while measures such as volume and extent can tell you what is happening, the why is rarely straightforward. You can make some general correlations in obvious cases (above normal temperatures and such) but a more in depth analysis is required to establish a firmer narrative.
elioe.

Basically, I am of the opinion that your conclusions are incorrect because the change in volume that you are seeing is not due to a change in thickness, but a change in extent. Which, although the FDD is anomaly is extreme, would not be reflected in your figure. After all, although there is an anomaly, it still is freezing and therefore the change in volume has been due primarily to a rapid change in the extent of very thin ice, with little increase in overall thickness of ice covering the Arctic.
Quoting 359. Doom2pro:


Joking about the deaths of people, and the loss of entire towns, and lively hoods Isn't funny.
379. elioe
Quoting 370. daddyjames:



Yes, but that does not control for change in extent/area. So, you cannot determine what exactly is causing the change observed in volume. There are two different mechanisms. Is the change observed due to a rapid change in extent or a rapid change in thickness? You cannot say based upon your plot.


If I was to divide the volume by extent/area, I would get the thickness averaged over entire Arctic ice-covered area. What is needed, is the thickness over only those areas, that are north of 80N. So this is based on the assumption, that of the new ice formation, a similar percentage occurs north of 80N each year. Of course that may be wrong, I just don't see any mechanism to explain why. But now I've commented on ASIF, and this discussion is leading nowhere. So I'm off of this conversation, until I get a reply from someone more professionally involved in this matter.
Quoting 349. fishnski:

Blah blah blah..cherry picking at its best...records are meant to be broken especially when you take into account the relatively short period that they have been recorded.....


Records are all around us , just because one can't read them doesn't mean others aren't doing it

( I urge those interested in proxy data to read this one , it's a pretty big deal -)



Fossilized tree and ice cores help date huge volcanic eruption 1,000 years ago to within three months


Writing in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews the team describes how new analysis of the partly fossilised remains of a tree killed by the eruption, and ice cores drilled in Greenland, lead them to conclude the eruption occurred in the final months of 946 AD.

We got lucky thanks to the burst of cosmic radiation that bathed the Earth in the year 775. It was only recently recognised that this left a worldwide signature in trees alive at the time.
Quoting 377. daddyjames:

elioe.

Basically, I am of the opinion that your conclusions are incorrect because the change in volume that you are seeing is not due to a change in thickness, but a change in extent. Which, although the FDD is anomaly is extreme, would not be reflected in your figure. After all, although there is an anomaly, it still is freezing and therefore the change in volume has been due primarily to a rapid change in the extent of very thin ice, with little increase in overall thickness of ice covering the Arctic.

I agree. Elioe is greatly oversimplifying based on a not well measured parameter -volume.

Arctic sea ice is in the worst shape it has been in...probably since humans evolved.
Quoting 379. elioe:



If I was to divide the volume by extent/area, I would get the thickness averaged over entire Arctic ice-covered area. What is needed, is the thickness over only those areas, that are north of 80N. So this is based on the assumption, that of the new ice formation, a similar percentage occurs north of 80N each year. Of course that may be wrong, I just don't see any mechanism to explain why. But now I've commented on ASIF, and this discussion is leading nowhere. So I'm off of this conversation, until I get a reply from someone more professionally involved in this matter.

In previous posts, you mention the heat transfer coefficient. What is a heat transfer coefficient? If you have no ice in a patch of ocean, is this applicable? That is my point about what you are trying to demonstrate. You are using the wrong set of data to try and make an argument, in my opinion.
Quoting 374. NativeSun:

It is nice to be warm in the winter, so I hope it stays this way.


Clearly you're not a apple grower, or own a grove of maple trees . The cold of winter is essential to many types agricultural pursuits. And it has clearly been shown in forests of Western North America, that the pests that eat trees are having a field day , destroying tens of millions of acres of forests.

After the pine beetles swept through , which now raise two crops of young a season . We are now seeing the next invasion , eating other types of trees.

All because the old cold is gone, and many, many, more of these creatures survive the winter.

Beetle Increase Kills Thousands of Acres

WESTERN SLOPE, Colo.-

The Colorado State Forest Service and the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, conducted a forest health aerial survey for last year, which resulted with an increase in the spruce beetle and the Douglas-fir beetle.

The spruce beetle populations have impacted 350,000 acres in the higher elevations, mainly effecting the southern and central parts of the state.

As for the Douglas-fir beetle, which kills mature Douglas-fir trees, the 2016 survey showed an increase on the Western Slope with roughly 19,000 acres impacted. These beetles have been found in small pockets spreading from Eagle, Garfield, and Pitkin counties, and most of the Gunnison Basin.


Link
384. vis0

Quoting 271. Kenfa03:

Si. Border wall out of solar panels?
both go back n forth (Mexico gets more sun "charges" needy Cali 20% more, Las Vegas 40% more ...S&D thang) till its realized that amigos do better than enimigos  and get back to where they left off in 2016 before a monkey-wrench was thrown into the friendship.
From Nature:

Meet the scientists affected by Trump’s immigration ban

Order barring citizens of seven countries from entering the US has left many confused and afraid.


People protest the US immigration ban at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on 28 January.
Stephanie Keith/Getty


Kaveh Daneshvar was thrilled when he was invited to speak at a molecular biology meeting next month in Banff, Canada. Daneshvar, a molecular geneticist, is finishing a postdoc at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston and preparing to go on the job market. He hoped that the conference talk would give him much-needed exposure to leaders in his field.

But that now seems impossible: if Daneshvar, an Iranian citizen, leaves the country, he may not be able to return. On 27 January, US President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order that blocks refugees from entering the United States for 120 days and Syrian refugees indefinitely. It also bans citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries “compromised by terrorism” — Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen — from the US for 90 days. The US government has issued conflicting statements on whether the provisions apply to people like Daneshvar who hold visas that would otherwise permit them to live, work or study in the United States — including those with the permanent resident visas known as ‘green cards’.

Nature spoke to more than 20 researchers affected by the new policy, who described their feelings of fear, shock and determination. Some asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation by the US government.

Read more here

See also:

More than 3,400 researchers — including 18 Nobel prize winners and five Fields medalists — have signed a petition denouncing Trump’s actions.

Global backlash grows against Trump's immigration order

Pakistan: Climate Change Adaptation Project to benefit 185m people
The project will address climate change impacts and Glacial Lake Outbursts Floods
Published: 17:34 January 29, 2017

As the White House changes course on climate change, California stubbornly presses forward
LAtimes, Jan 29
With cheese and shrimp cocktail piled on their plates, guests strolled the exhibit like patrons at an art gallery, sipping beer and pausing to ponder the displays that lined the room. But instead of paintings or sculptures, they were examining scientific charts about climate change at a state environmental agency. ...

Gates warns against denying climate change
Anne-Marcelle Ngabirano , USA TODAY Published 1:43 p.m. ET Jan. 29, 2017
Bill Gates warned against denying climate change and pushed for more innovation in clean energy, during an event Friday at Columbia University in New York. ...

Nothing Trumps a clean, equitable and wildlife-friendly energy future
The Hill, by Chad Tudenggongbu - 01/29/17 02:15 PM EST

With this little selection: Good night and good nerves ...
Quoting 386. barbamz:


(...)

Gates warns against denying climate change
Anne-Marcelle Ngabirano , USA TODAY Published 1:43 p.m. ET Jan. 29, 2017
Bill Gates warned against denying climate change and pushed for more innovation in clean energy, during an event Friday at Columbia University in New York. ...

(...)


From the article:

"Certain topics are so complicated like climate change that to really get a broad understanding is a bit difficult and particularly when people take that complexity and create uncertainty about it," Gates said.
388. elioe
Quoting 382. daddyjames:


In previous posts, you mention the heat transfer coefficient. What is a heat transfer coefficient? If you have no ice in a patch of ocean, is this applicable? That is my point about what you are trying to demonstrate. You are using the wrong set of data to try and make an argument, in my opinion.


Heat transfer coefficient is heat flux divided by temperature difference and surface area.

For example, for ice of uniform thickness of 2 meters near freezing temperature, it would be ~ 1 W/K/m².

For a 1 x 1 meter patch of water at freezing temperature (-1.8 C) embedded within the ice, if the air temperature was 250 K (-23.15 C), and the air would be calm, convective heat transfer coefficient would be ~5.5 W/K/m². Increasing the size of patch decreases the coefficient, while wind would increase it.

And if the air contains enough greenhouse gases to radiate towards the patch of water like a black body of 250 K temperature, the radiative heat transfer coefficient would be ~ 4 W/K/m², independent of the size of the patch.
Quoting 366. Sfloridacat5:



I was born in Washington D.C. (1962) and then we moved south of the city to the Mount Vernon area. We lived there for 16 years. I remember many very disappointed Winters as a kid, when we didn't get any decent snow. Our house was on the top of a really steep hill and a very popular sledding spot.

Then we would get the occasional year when we would get slammed with a good snow storm. One year we were out of school from around Dec. 10th or so (from a heavy snowfall) until January (after Christmas break). That was a great Winter to be a kid in the D.C. area. I also remember a year when we got a big snow right before Christmas.


The pattern in DC has been, since I was a kid, many disappointing winter months interspersed with the occasional big dump. THe change in this pattern has been for a larger number of really big dumps with more snow in the dumps, accompanied by an overall decrease in average snow per winter. Big dump years were 1966, 1979, 1983, 1987 (two), 1996, 2003, 2009, 2010 (twice) and 2016. The late sixties seemed to get more reliable snow than other periods.. just great for when I was a kid. I remember the winter of 1972-73 when we got 1/10" total officially (though we got a little more north of Mt Vernon from a thundersquall sometime in February, a good quarter inch!)

Winter 1997-1998 also got 1/10".
Quoting 371. washingaway:


Text in quote omitted.

SNIP... To put it in simple terms. The structure should be built around the the piling not just sitting on top of piers or pilings.�

Need proof?



Sent from my iPad


Agreed... But all of that costs money and time. Really, saving a structure is always going to be the band-aid as you almost have to start over to do it "right". A better band-aid option would be to build the structure as you described and put the existing house "inside" it. Other options I see that make some sense are enclosing the "first floor" of the house. Done with either CBS or poured concrete walls. It blocks that uplift problem from the wind - it isn't a substitute for good building practices like you described. I haven't been in construction or engineering all my life, but I have seen what hurricanes and floods do and I look really hard at the one or two houses that survived.

The homes that I have been in South Dade that had to be raised the old house on the first floor became a gigantic garage... So the space wasn't totally wasted. And yes, there are columns "in the way" - but they were placed strategically so that cars could get parked inside.
Quoting 383. RobertWC:



Clearly you're not a apple grower, or own a grove of maple trees . The cold of winter is essential to many types agricultural pursuits. And it has clearly been shown in forests of Western North America, that the pests that eat trees are having a field day , destroying tens of millions of acres of forests.

After the pine beetles swept through , which now raise two crops of young a season . We are now seeing the next invasion , eating other types of trees.

All because the old cold is gone, and many, many, more of these creatures survive the winter.

Beetle Increase Kills Thousands of Acres

WESTERN SLOPE, Colo.-

The Colorado State Forest Service and the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, conducted a forest health aerial survey for last year, which resulted with an increase in the spruce beetle and the Douglas-fir beetle.

The spruce beetle populations have impacted 350,000 acres in the higher elevations, mainly effecting the southern and central parts of the state.

As for the Douglas-fir beetle, which kills mature Douglas-fir trees, the 2016 survey showed an increase on the Western Slope with roughly 19,000 acres impacted. These beetles have been found in small pockets spreading from Eagle, Garfield, and Pitkin counties, and most of the Gunnison Basin.


Link


THe southern regions of U.S. peach growing areas are also at risk because of lack of sufficient chilling hours to vernalize the leaf and flower buds. Flower buds require less and an extremely warm winter will produce the heartbreaking sight of blooming trees with few, sparse leaves which means no crop AND a weak tree for next year.
The Gulf coast and just North and also South Georgia are at most risk of this.
Beetle Increase Kills Thousands of Acres

We're looking at a bald Rocky Mountains , Uinta Mountains, Sierra Mountains, and Cascade Mountains, thanks to insects getting the upper wing on our brave new world. There are tens of millions of acres in these forests of "standing dead trees " that were alive , just 10 years ago.

This is the wooden water tower of our country, and the beetles and worms are eating holes in it.

Dead trees don't shade the snow pack. Living trees do . They act as a break on the spring runoff by sheltering the snow from direct sun light. All of this is done deal. And as the Keeper says it's just getting Faster and Faster. .
From The Washington Post:

Top download from any federal site right now is Park Service report on climate change


The cover of a National Park Service report on climate change that was the most-downloaded government form this week (NPS.gov)

The events of the past week have been worrying to advocates of government action on climate change, with the removal of climate priorities from the White House website, the order to freeze all Environmental Protection Agency contracts and the inauguration of a president who said he is “not a big believer” in the fact that humans have played a role in changing Earth's climate.

But these events have also been very good for website traffic.

According to data from analytics.usa.gov, which tracks Web traffic on all .gov websites, several pages related to climate change have been extremely popular in the week since President Trump's inauguration.

As of Friday morning, a National Park Service report about the agency's “Cultural Resources Climate Change Strategy” was the most downloaded document from a government website. Thousands more people wanted to download that document than those who downloaded the form to apply for passport renewal or any of the Internal Revenue Service documents required to file tax returns.

Last spring, the Park Service's then-Director Jonathan Jarvis spoke with The Washington Post about the climate change threat to parks: “A lot of our big, national parks are in extreme environments — high elevation, desert, Alaska, coastline. These are the places that we’re already seeing the effects of climate change, and they’re going to be accelerated in these environments, with sea level rise, storm surge, thermokarsting” — when permafrost thaws — “in the Arctic, fires in the Sierra, drought all over. It’s going to upset the paradigm upon which we’ve been managing for 100 years. That’s going to be a big challenge, and frankly, we haven’t figured it out.”

Read more here
Quoting 391. georgevandenberghe:



THe southern regions of U.S. peach growing areas are also at risk because of lack of sufficient chilling hours to vernalize the leaf and flower buds. Flower buds require less and an extremely warm winter will produce the heartbreaking sight of blooming trees with few, sparse leaves which means no crop AND a weak tree for next year.
The Gulf coast and just North and also South Georgia are at most risk of this.


My mother's flowering quince has buds on it. When I growing up in this house 50 years ago , they showed up 5 weeks later.


flowering quince
Quoting 391. georgevandenberghe:

Nature doesn't listen to AM talk radio, read the Wall Street Journal, or watch Fox News.
Quoting 351. washingtonian115:

Join the club.The "snow" here this winter has been absolutely dismal.If things don't turn around soon for the east it could be our least snowiest winter here in the IMMEDIATE D.C area in years.


Light snow is in our forecast for the predawn Monday morning hours. But yeah.. not much.
Quoting 390. Dakster:



Agreed... But all of that costs money and time. Really, saving a structure is always going to be the band-aid as you almost have to start over to do it "right". A better band-aid option would be to build the structure as you described and put the existing house "inside" it. Other options I see that make some sense are enclosing the "first floor" of the house. Done with either CBS or poured concrete walls. It blocks that uplift problem from the wind - it isn't a substitute for good building practices like you described. I haven't been in construction or engineering all my life, but I have seen what hurricanes and floods do and I look really hard at the one or two houses that survived.

The homes that I have been in South Dade that had to be raised the old house on the first floor became a gigantic garage... So the space wasn't totally wasted. And yes, there are columns "in the way" - but they were placed strategically so that cars could get parked inside.

Some house that have been elevated here in New Orleans had a value of less than what it cost to elevate them, and/or, the houses were built with building codes of the 1960s. It may be cheaper, or just make better sense, to pay the home owner a fair value for the home and tear it down. The lot can then be sold and a new home built to today's codes and the new base flood elevations. Not only would this eliminate the insurable risk, it would stimulate the local economy. There many areas in the New Orleans area where the houses, streets, and the land itself is sinking. I could show you where the land around some slab houses has sunk so much the wood pilings are showing. Here, our land is sinking and the seas are rising. It's just a matter of time before the inevitable.



400. vis0
The following does not represent members, WxU nor its affiliates...just the freedom of speech...

  GO HERE

if you have a reply please place on your blog as i did.

Lets try this IDEA. (a rePost from 2012)

I
f comments go too way of the weather/blog subject MODs can place comment onto the members off topic blog which will be auto-created by WATSON since WATSON is smart enough to have done that (given each member an off topic blog) already.  

 

Each member gets a permanent off topic blog FAH-REE**  

 

If the off topic comment is popular you'll notice from the many different WxU members that use the off topic "sent here" link, that replaced the off topic comment on Dr. Masters blog which leads members to the off topic blog where they can add comments to that off topic comment.

 

If not popular you still might be correct but crickets and squirrels munching is all that you will hear at that off topic blog.


**offer valid in all 50 states and in Vlad Santiago's garage (to the left of Wikiieaks s
wervers)...only valid in Mexico after the 20%  extortion   tax (w/o representation)  fee is  handed over  paid.
From NSIDC:

December 6, 2016

Arctic sea ice loss linked to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions

A new study published in the journal Science links Arctic sea ice loss to cumulative CO2 emissions in the atmosphere through a simple linear relationship (Figure 6). Researchers conducting the study, including NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve, examined this linear relationship based on observations from the satellite and pre-satellite era since 1953, and in climate models. The observed relationship is equivalent to a loss of 3 square meters (32 square feet) for every metric ton of CO2 added to the atmosphere, compared the average from all the climate models of 1.75 square meters (19 square feet). This smaller value, or lower sensitivity, from the models is consistent with findings that the models tend to be generally conservative relative to observations in regard to how fast the Arctic has been losing its summer ice cover. The observed rate of ice loss per metric ton of CO2 allows individuals to more easily grasp their contribution to Arctic sea ice


Figure 6. This plot shows the relationship between September sea ice extent (1953 to 2015) and cumulative CO2 emissions since 1850. Grey diamonds represent the individual satellite data values; circles represent pre-satellite era values; the solid red line shows the 30-year running average. The dotted red line indicates the linear relationship of 3 square meters per metric ton of CO2.

Credit: D. Notz, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Quoting 388. elioe:



Heat transfer coefficient is heat flux divided by temperature difference and surface area.

For example, for ice of uniform thickness of 2 meters near freezing temperature, it would be ~ 1 W/K/m².

For a 1 x 1 meter patch of water at freezing temperature (-1.8 C) embedded within the ice, if the air temperature was 250 K (-23.15 C), and the air would be calm, convective heat transfer coefficient would be ~5.5 W/K/m². Increasing the size of patch decreases the coefficient, while wind would increase it.

And if the air contains enough greenhouse gases to radiate towards the patch of water like a black body of 250 K temperature, the radiative heat transfer coefficient would be ~ 4 W/K/m², independent of the size of the patch.

Ok, I am just trying to understand your argument (as used in a scientific sense). You are stating that a change in the coefficient of heat transfer, due to the higher temperatures observed in the Arctic, is not being reflected in the rate of change of ice volume data observed. Am I correct or have I misunderstood your statement?
I fear one thing , that I become viso .

Where no one can keep up. That I am so clever that no one understands.
Quoting 399. washingaway:


Some house that have been elevated here in New Orleans had a value of less than what it cost to elevate them, and/or, the houses were built with building codes of the 1960s. It may be cheaper, or just make better sense, to pay the home owner a fair value for the home and tear it down. The lot can then be sold and a new home built to today's codes and the new base flood elevations. Not only would this eliminate the insurable risk, it would stimulate the local economy. There many areas in the New Orleans area where the houses, streets, and the land itself is sinking. I could show you where the land around some slab houses has sunk so much the wood pilings are showing. Here, our land is sinking and the seas are rising. It's just a matter of time before the inevitable.




A better plan would be to provide the homeowner with one of the surplus river barges, suitably painted on the exterior to preserve it, placed on the homeowner's lot, and lift the old house onto it, providing steps for access. The finish of the barge deck around the house would be the option of the homeowner. Plumbing connections would be installed for water and septic, and electrical and phone lines could be connected as before. Probably the cost of such a project would be comparable to the "raising on stilts" option but more secure and flexible -- if the property ultimately became flooded and uninhabitable the homeowner could then move the house elsewhere by hiring a tug. (Most of those houses have insufficient "fair market value" to provide a suitable replacement.)
And there is crowd funding. , If Trump kills the money, They will have more than they ever dreamed of.

It’s called give me a dollar. There millions of people who can give one dollar to help one person to do one great thing.
Tipperary Song (Das Boot)

Link
407. elioe
Quoting 402. daddyjames:


Ok, I am just trying to understand your argument (as used in a scientific sense). You are stating that a change in the coefficient of heat transfer, due to the higher temperatures observed in the Arctic, is not being reflected in the rate of change of ice volume data observed. Am I correct or have I misunderstood your statement?



I am stating, that an increase in heat transfer coefficient, most likely caused by a greater percentage of area being covered by open water, is letting the ice growth this winter proceed in a manner similar to previous years, despite the greatly increased air temperatures. And also, that this increase in heat transfer coefficient is a major cause to the greatly increased air temperatures, though not the only one.

And it would also make sense, that the increased air temperatures help to drive more cyclones into the Arctic, their winds causing even more fractures in the ice, and therefore more patches of open water. It could well be a self-sustaining cycle, and as such, a tipping point.

In the case some readers still are unclear of my position: yes, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the underlying cause anyway. :)
I keep my Mom's property in Montgomery, AL. Last year was a horrendous drought which began in later Summer and lasted well into Fall. If it had begun in Spring it would have been truly disastrous. Heat stayed well into October, last Fall. Many heat records broken in Fall, and some by several degrees. Usually, grass cutting begins in Montgomery area mid to late March. Mom's grass will need to be cut by end of first week of February.

Aqua satellite (Jan. 29) - source: NASA Worldview

Carbon monoxide surface concentration around 2100z (Jan. 29) - source: earth.nullschool.net

Chile holding 43 for 'possible responsibility' in deadly wildfires
Japan Times - 1 h ago.

Volunteers Work to Quench Raging Wildfires in Coastal Town
Yahoo News - 1 h ago (w/auto-playing video)
Quoting 408. franckinator:

I keep my Mom's property in Montgomery, AL. Last year was a horrendous drought which began in later Summer and lasted well into Fall. If it had begun in Spring it would have been truly disastrous. Heat stayed well into October, last Fall. Many heat records broken in Fall, and some by several degrees. Usually, grass cutting begins in Montgomery area mid to late March. Mom's grass will need to be cut by end of first week of February.


Must be a good lawn. My weeds have needed cutting all through the winter in Florida.
edit: I guess they handled the very dry conditions better than the grass did.
Quoting 385. Xandra:

From Nature:

Meet the scientists affected by Trump’s immigration ban

Order barring citizens of seven countries from entering the US has left many confused and afraid.


People protest the US immigration ban at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on 28 January.
Stephanie Keith/Getty


Kaveh Daneshvar was thrilled when he was invited to speak at a molecular biology meeting next month in Banff, Canada. Daneshvar, a molecular geneticist, is finishing a postdoc at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston and preparing to go on the job market. He hoped that the conference talk would give him much-needed exposure to leaders in his field.

But that now seems impossible: if Daneshvar, an Iranian citizen, leaves the country, he may not be able to return. On 27 January, US President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order that blocks refugees from entering the United States for 120 days and Syrian refugees indefinitely. It also bans citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries “compromised by terrorism” — Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen — from the US for 90 days. The US government has issued conflicting statements on whether the provisions apply to people like Daneshvar who hold visas that would otherwise permit them to live, work or study in the United States — including those with the permanent resident visas known as ‘green cards’.

Nature spoke to more than 20 researchers affected by the new policy, who described their feelings of fear, shock and determination. Some asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation by the US government.

Read more here

See also:

More than 3,400 researchers — including 18 Nobel prize winners and five Fields medalists — have signed a petition denouncing Trump’s actions.

Global backlash grows against Trump's immigration order




That sound you hear is the sound of fascism lacing up it's jackboots. Now you know why the senior officials at state all suddenly resigned, even though they had served under multiple administrations. They wanted nothing to do with this neo-fascist fear mongering garbage, and who can blame them.

Goebell...er I mean Bannon now has a seat on Trump's security council. You can expect more of this type of idiotic neo-fascist crap. "Give us your poor, your tired..., apparently the spirit of America has now fled to Canada.
Quoting 407. elioe:



I am stating, that an increase in heat transfer coefficient, most likely caused by a greater percentage of area being covered by open water, is letting the ice growth this winter proceed in a manner similar to previous years, despite the greatly increased air temperatures. And also, that this increase in heat transfer coefficient is a major cause to the greatly increased air temperatures, though not the only one.

And it would also make sense, that the increased air temperatures help to drive more cyclones into the Arctic, their winds causing even more fractures in the ice, and therefore more patches of open water. It could well be a self-sustaining cycle, and as such, a tipping point.

In the case some readers still are unclear of my position: yes, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the underlying cause anyway. :)


Ok, but your graph demonstrates that it is not growing the same this year as compared with recent years, correct?
My figure comparing the average rate of change in ice volume, for the first four months, also demonstrates that the average rate of change this year, so far, is smaller than the most recent previous years.

Not necessarily smaller than what has been observed before, but I am attributing that (without any demonstrated evidence) to the differences in the thickness of the Arctic ice over time..

The average rate of change of ice volume (or cumulative ice volume as you show) is dependent on two separate processes. On a whole, as the average thickness of the ice decreases, increases in extent of ice (formation of new ice) will contribute more to the overall volume observed. That is what I think is occurring this year, as opposed to the past.

I think you would need to determine the degree of contribution of increased ice extent to the observed increase in volume. Then compare that with the cumulative number of FDD to determine what you are hypothesizing.

I understand the slight discrepancies in the data and their coverage, however melding the two would give you a rough estimate of whether or not your hypothesis is supported.
BTW Here is a comparison of the FDD versus that of the climatology (as a percentage of the ERA40) for the past few years. This may illustrate why those in the know are extremely concerned. The data for the current year is lagging behind, I believe, and the dates indicated on the x-axis are not entirely correct - but the calculated values are for the freezing season for the Arctic (beginning in September).

North Florida did a lot better with rain and growing conditions this winter. This year is the third time ever seen a fourth cutting of hay out of that region. They started cutting about 3 weeks ago..& it's been beautiful hay. The pasture was even growing a little here, up til a few weeks ago in Central Florida. It's been a relief for the loss of much of the third cutting across much the Carolinas due to Matthew flooding or drought.

Alabama on the other hand is in that southeast drought which will probably intensify the next few months.

Wrote a blog on coming weather, some January review...like how much CA caught up and the animal impact in the Northwest from the relentless snow there. Also a huge fissure opened up in Arizona.

Quoting 415. Xandra:


Source



Unfortunately, the source for that data is no longer updating it. Andrew Slater passed away suddenly and unexpectedly last year. Kinda sucks, as his model for predicting minimal ice extent had performed better than the others for several years running.

Wipneus is continuing the plots that Dr. Slater started, I believe.

edit: then again, I may be wrong about that. Nico Sun may be the one.
beautifully fractured southeast tip of new zealand from iss

incredible 6 year movie, imaging a 4 planet solar system 129 light years away. the closest planet takes 40 years to orbit, while the farthest takes 400 years.

Link
419. vis0
reply to:: 358 on this blogbyte

Quoting 367. CaneFreeCR:

The "slush" in the cooler is essentially the same temperature when the ice just starts to melt as when the last ice finishes melting -- 32 degrees F. One big difference is that when the cooler is full of only ice, when you reach in for a beer your hand usually doesn't come in much contact with the ice so you don't feel it -- but the ice is probably a good deal colder than 32 degrees F -- your freezer where the ice is made ought to be about 0 degrees F. But when the ice in the cooler is slush you contact that 32 degree water-ice mixture more completely and the water transfers the heat from your hand much more efficiently than air, so you feel the loss of warmth (cold) much more. The problem in the "frozen" North is that formerly the ice was around 0 degrees F or colder, but now that it is melting rapidly, most of it, and the sea water, is closer to freezing temperature, (actually about 29 degrees F, the freezing point of salt sea water). Thus we have an out-of-control warming well above the normal temperatures of the Arctic Ocean and getting those temperatures back will probably require a shut-down of our neighboring fusion reactor.


or a planet 's spin stopping and only one side remains cold (the few remaining "humans" live in houseboats so they can move into out of sun as desired, things changed way to fast for nature to mutate therefore nothing like a special skin to allow a cancer free skin from too much sunshine developed) then after ice developing on the cold side for a million years the planet changes its tilts Grothar presses the reset button and all is fine n dandy. 

i see a few gave a question, you in the front, yes?

what 'bout humans?

oh humans they suffered tremendously (was like living in a sauna that one could not shut off)  only fun years where from age 1 thru 3 mainly cause they knew not how to put words together to explain the pain,  just cried while awake.
Quoting 355. VermontStorms:



I have always understood sleet to be the mix of snow and rain. Our weather forecasts call ice pellets "ice pellets".

Ditto. Living in CT and MA that's what it was. Pretty sure that's what the weathermen called it as well. Wasn't until one day a couple of years ago on this blog that I saw the same discussion and was surprised by it.
Interesting---I always heard ice pellets called sleet.
Arctic sea ice extent figures from JAXA: Followup on yesterday's comment

January 25 2017: 13,216,098 km2
January 26, 2017: 13,138,957 km2 ( -77,141 km2 )
January 27, 2017: 13,077,599 km2 ( -61,358 km2 )

January 28, 2017: 13,103,750 km2 ( +26,151 km2 ) Crisis is over! ;)
We set off for Sauk mt with hopes for some sun breaks and new snowy views. Our drive up the forest rd was cut short by low snow and so we parked at about 1600'. An indeterminate number of slushy switchbacks and views limited to dirty snow and fir tree plantings had us questioning the sanity of continuing on. After 4 brutal miles a hint of hope opens up. An avalanche chute let's in some sunlight and reveals the mountain for the first time,right above us. Filled with hope we push on up, into the land of alpine wonder. 9 miles round trip 2700' vertical, feeling sore today.
Quoting 422. BaltimoreBrian:

Interesting---I always heard ice pellets called sleet.


I know have heard all kinds of descriptions for things falling from the sky. Snow grains, Ice grains, hail, sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain. There are also many different types of snow - but I don't know their names, yet. I've seen small fine particles to gigantic flakes falling.

Before all I knew was sprinkling, raining, and raining so hard I can't see my hands in front of my face. FWIW, raining hard here is compared to sprinkling in Miami...
Quoting 383. RobertWC:



Clearly you're not a apple grower, or own a grove of maple trees . The cold of winter is essential to many types agricultural pursuits. And it has clearly been shown in forests of Western North America, that the pests that eat trees are having a field day , destroying tens of millions of acres of forests.

After the pine beetles swept through , which now raise two crops of young a season . We are now seeing the next invasion , eating other types of trees. SNIP


Climate change is just one part of the problem. Another part of the problem is there are no birds to eat them any more. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather on just how many birds there used to be. Some bird migrations would darken the skies for hours and leave droppings accumulating like snow. This was approximately 1850-ish in New Hampshire. If there are no great flocks of birds to consume insects, they can multiply unchecked until the trees are reduced to punk.
427. vis0
Quoting 396. RobertWC:

Quoting 391. georgevandenberghe:

Nature doesn't listen to AM talk radio, read the Wall Street Journal, or watch Fox News.

To be fair nor FM, or any TV station.

Nature only listens to the laws of physics and right now (over 100 yrs at least) Nature is developing a fever.
Nature has these fleas damaging natures skin (soil/land).
Nature is trying to moisturize herself but these fleas are pouring pollutants that cause acidic imbalances to an even warmer climate and nature blood pressure is about to blow.

QUICK someone administer ~4 billion cc's of sense so the fleas can realize that its better to work with nature than to go against nature. Nature is a mother if you treat her with respect odds are nature will nurture all your needs by teaching you through example/observation as what to do versus not do... (this works even for negative examples as a i knew a Mother of 4 who did something that damaged her body sadly suffered cause of that but her kids learned through example don't do that. If one sees people die in a flood by example one learns how to respect water and build to protect life and property...of course if the floods or rain are accentuated super fast due to man's negative affects on how nature flows then the costs will catch up to man as things happen too fast to adapt.

428. vis0
Quoting 403. RobertWC:

I fear one thing , that I become viso .

Where no one can keep up. That I am so clever that no one understands.


22 degrees of Earth's view as to the zodiacal equator, turn clockwise 3quarters FROM TRUE North which is really Earth's south pole within that zodiacal sine is complex life.   ...look 2 day old pizza i left in da oven,   hmmmmm
vis0, what degree of axial tilt provides the same insolation to every latitude? Assume a circular orbit. Hint--it's not 45°

Toe of an avalanche, summit of Sauk mt 5500' in the background. Even though the slope conditions were very stable yesterday it was disconcerting to be walking right upto and past this slide. Our final destination is the big fir tree just right of center, 4300'



One more because, well no more wunderphotos and that sucks!

Mouse is finally happy to be on good snow in the sun!
Quoting 299. hotroddan:

Why are WunderPhotos being removed? :(
------------------------

Quoting 313. LAbonbon:


I don't know but I'm bummed about it too.

---------------------------
314. RenoSoHill
11:36 PM CST on January 28, 2017
23 +
I guess us photographers don't bring in enough money for them. There are hundreds, if not thousands of photographers pretty downtrodden right now. They will be deleting almost two million photos, most of which are weather related. I guess weather pictures don't mean anything to a weather company or whatever IBM calls themselves. We are devastated, to say the least!
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
-----------------------------

If they do away with the blogs are people still going to keep uploading their PWS?

The fantastic thing about WU was all the weather stations uploading data & of course the Photo Galleries! : )




Quoting 426. Snacker2:



Climate change is just one part of the problem. Another part of the problem is there are no birds to eat them any more. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather on just how many birds there used to be. Some bird migrations would darken the skies for hours and leave droppings accumulating like snow. This was approximately 1850-ish in New Hampshire. If there are no great flocks of birds to consume insects, they can multiply unchecked until the trees are reduced to punk.



John James Audubon knew birds. As part of what he called his “frenzy” for avians, the French-American naturalist attempted to survey and document in drawings all the native bird species of North America. And it is Audubon who in 1833 identified the passenger pigeon, Ectopistes migratorius, as the most numerous bird on the continent, highlighting the point by describing a mile-wide flock of migrating pigeons that passed over his head and blocked the sun for three straight days.

In fact, the passenger pigeon in the early 1800s may have been the most numerous bird in the world, with an estimated population of at least three billion birds—or at least a third as much as the total population of all kinds of birds in North America today. Yet, by 1900, none survived in the wild, and on September 1, 1914, the very last one, named Martha, was found dead on the floor of her cage in the Cincinnati Zoo. The species had gone from extraordinarily populous to extinct in a human life span.

Link


Quoting 422. BaltimoreBrian:

Interesting---I always heard ice pellets called sleet.


The most interesting frozen precip I've seen happened a couple years ago. We were actually having convective storms (thundersnow) passing through, but there were some warm air layers the precip must have been passing through. It wasn't ice or snow, but ice covered snow balls. They ranged from .1" to .25" in size with an ice exterior, but when you broke them open there was snow. Stung like hail though (I was outside shoveling in a t-shirt at the time).

I caught a few of them and kept them in bag in my freezer for a while. My son thought they were the coolest thing ever.
435. vis0

Quoting 429. BaltimoreBrian:

vis0, what degree of axial tilt provides the same insolation to every latitude? Assume a circular orbit. Hint--it's not 45°
Now or when Grothar bumped into Earth in his model-T like space craft (cranking that ship must've been a "duzie" no G)

 

   Also purely as to Earth or as to my theory  (here we go an a vis0 tangent) that to raise the odds for complex life the spiritual and soul portion of transmitting/interaction "light" has to flow though windows of 33 or 66 degrees angles (no higher error rate than 11 degrees 5.5 on either side)

 

   Therefore the  Solar plane to Galaxy is on a ~66 degree tilt (might be off but should not be more than 11 on the full arc or either direction 5.5 degrees)...of course all is copastetic when planes interact at the 2 ends.

 

   Earth being on the final stop of the spirit-soul-self voyage means Earth does not need be on the 33 or 66 window ledge to support complex beings. Though  if it where (earth's tile near 33 +/- 6 or 27ish to 29ish)  degrees) humans would be more spiritually balanced ... yet when the Earth's tilt  does move towards the higher end of the 22.5 to 23.5 range  i'm sure some magic spiritual/soulful dust enhances humans conscience.  

 

    As to your Q i'd say 23.3  take a degree either way and since i have no degree i might be off by a bit more, though i use 23.5 or 22.5 cause it rounds things off better when using examples towards other explanations.

 

Now what is the tilt as to the galaxy as to the universe\?

 

   PS for skeptics whom want to appear wise to those that for whatever reason are uneducated please don't ask who took the picture of our solar system.      The electromagnetic spectrum can be used to create an outline and since the outline is pretty much fully drawn in the direction taken AS TO PHYSICS / electromagnetic spectrum just turning it around gives us a well informed example AS TO PHYSICS.  Sure we might not see UFOs hiding behind Uranus but were sure darn tootin its what Uranus looks like as to its outline on the other side (was going to post here an animation of an old fashion outhouse with a moon crest cut into the  door slowly opening but that would be too much)

 

Now if you ask how about what we don't see?  

 

    Well same answer if we don't see it from behind its not filled in when we have compu'r simulations flip the image over, unless its something that flew by as an asteroid or comet  otherwise the ALT right style  to start rumors or sell lies REAL doesn't work when using real science that's why the alternate truth was created.

 

Example

If you took a picture from above when President elect trump was being sworn in you'd see a less than half full (of people) area in front of the Washington Monument.  Now you cannot see those people from below but a compu'r could process the real image as if it where from below with the REAL image from above as its reference, show shoes yet still less than half full.  If you take a full image of the same are from one side or the other a compu'r could create an outline of how that would look from the other side...still less than half full.  Now zoom in into one third of the crowd and say that the mall was overflowing with more people that could fit though all you are shown in the inner most group and if you did not see the other images then one is relying on the words of those presenting the image of a small area but you could not feed that image to a compu'r and ask it to create a full image of the "crowd" as the compu'r would spit out the words not enough info to fully process

 

 

 

Does not mean we know everything, of course not but what modern science publishes as fact are things that have been scrutinized much over and can be recreated via laws of physics like when using aforementioned image showing the full area in front of the Washington monument on Jan 20th 2017.     Now alternate truths / creating lies to sell a political views for the purpose of greed or to influence the minds of the less educated as to science is easily debunked/shown as a lie by testing it through basic science, the problem is how can that be shown to the uneducated public

 

  Best answer is make sure all can receive a good education.

There is a good opportunity to do that this year.

 

Why not have science shows pick up the slack that the void  of Barnum & Bailey circus closing left.   Find the scheduling that their circus had, rent those now empty tents and entertain the local with interesting science experiments...don't send Bill Nye the alt. right has demonized him so much booing may never stop but use experiments he used.      In this manner jobs are created as food/concession stands that would have been open for the circus are opened for "fun science expo '17", use it to explain basic science not aGW.

 

 

Not sure still of how an image of the Milky Way as a whole is taken?       Here one more example::

 

Take a picture of me sideways in the dark with dim light glowing an outline of me, use different waves length so you can see my gut has girth.

 

Now if you place the coordinates of my outlined shape and thickness of my girth into a computer and have the compur flip the image around

 

will ya see:

 
a)


(courtesy of member's  family)  thanks to another member for standing in for this outline of them.
 

b)          &n bsp;     

Thanks to aquak9 for finding the person near the beach to stand in for this outline (courtesy of http://www.dragoart.com/tuts/6811/1/1/how-to-draw- an-ipod.htm)

 
c)         &n bsp;     

Thanks to junk food   (courtesy of http://www.clipartof.com/portfolio/djart/illustrat ion/cartoon-black-and-white-fat-man-in-swim-shorts -holding-a-firecracker-and-match-1316943.html

 

 Well its similar when computing the image of the milky way, we measure it from our side/view and by the many readouts / energy measurements within areas of science and electromagnetic spectrum analysis we can create what the galaxy looks like from the other side MIND YOU the images we see are nice but no where near High Definition.  MAYBE the first selfie taken from an extended arm device was from space, one of the voyagers took a image of itself with Earth way in the background, but back then it was not called a selfie.

 
 

Almost didn't get to see the comment had refresh trouble and page stopped loading a few comments before BBrian's Q, thank goodness for a late nite/early morn snack it kept me up enough to see the pg load fully..
Quoting 426. Snacker2:



Climate change is just one part of the problem. Another part of the problem is there are no birds to eat them any more. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather on just how many birds there used to be. Some bird migrations would darken the skies for hours and leave droppings accumulating like snow. This was approximately 1850-ish in New Hampshire. If there are no great flocks of birds to consume insects, they can multiply unchecked until the trees are reduced to punk.


We certainly don't have a bird shortage in Florida. Up north you have to worry about scraping ice in the morning. Down here it's scraping bird fecal deposits.
It's all about the tilt.

If you're confused about religions, in reality? it's all about the tilt.

Our food our weather our constellations our seasons- it's all about the tilt. Worship what you will, but whoever/whatever/however we got our tilt- well it's like the Hokey-Pokey:

That's what it's all about.

439. elioe
Quoting 412. daddyjames:

I think you would need to determine the degree of contribution of increased ice extent to the observed increase in volume. Then compare that with the cumulative number of FDD to determine what you are hypothesizing.

I understand the slight discrepancies in the data and their coverage, however melding the two would give you a rough estimate of whether or not your hypothesis is supported.



Well, I'm not sure, but I guess this year's increase in extent is only the third largest, after 2007-08 and 2012-13 ?

But I made a new graph. Now the vertical axis is the change in average thickness, compared to September. Horizontal axis remains the accumulated FDD.



Should be clear, why this approach has no value. Every year, in the beginning of freezing season, the accumulation of FDD is accompanied in a decrease in the average thickness. That's because the extent starts growing faster than volume.
Chile is a bit larger than the state of Texas so would this be comparable to our 2nd largest state setting a similar record? Was this new record caused by the increase in co2 or was it the perfect combination of atmospheric conditions? Just last April, in Ithaca, NY, a new record was set for the month. A low of -1F was registered and previously this city had never been below 10F, in April. Was this due to perfect atmospheric conditions or co2?
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Quoting 440. WU-9869342:

Chile is a bit larger than the state of Texas so would this be comparable to our 2nd largest state setting a similar record? Was this new record caused by the increase in co2 or was it the perfect combination of atmospheric conditions? Just last April, in Ithaca, NY, a new record was set for the month. A low of -1F was registered and previously this city had never been below 10F, in April. Was this due to perfect atmospheric conditions or co2?
You could say it was due to CO2 creating "perfect" atmospheric conditions: the increased anthropogenic CO2 has caused the Arctic to warm drastically, which has produced an extremely wobbly polar jet stream. The south-bound winds of the erratic jet stream brought arctic temps (though while warmer than usual for the Arctic are still colder than Ithaca's usual temps) that set that record for Ithaca.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 440. WU-9869342:

Chile is a bit larger than the state of Texas so would this be comparable to our 2nd largest state setting a similar record? Was this new record caused by the increase in co2 or was it the perfect combination of atmospheric conditions? Just last April, in Ithaca, NY, a new record was set for the month. A low of -1F was registered and previously this city had never been below 10F, in April. Was this due to perfect atmospheric conditions or co2?

I think you're looking at this the wrong way around. The question isn't did AGW cause the new record. That's difficult to say, one way or the other. A more useful way to look at it, imo, is how likely is it that that event would have happened in the absence of AGW?

Example: Let's say that you own a piece of land near the sea shore that is 1-foot above the highest storm surge ever measured in that area. Now let's say that a cat-2 hurricane comes ashore and floods your property. Did sea level rise (SLR) cause the flooding? Obviously, it did not; the hurricane did. However, given the previous information, it is likely that SLR contributed to the flooding. The same holds true with temperature records. How much AGW influenced the Chilean records and fires is certainly at issue, but there is little doubt that AGW played some role. A study can (and probably will) tell us what role AGW played.
445. vis0
Quoting 438. aquak9:

It's all about the tilt.

If you're confused about religions, in reality? it's all about the tilt.

Our food our weather our constellations our seasons- it's all about the tilt. Worship what you will, but whoever/whatever/however we got our tilt- well it's like the Hokey-Pokey:

That's what it's all about.


are U saying that Earth is a pinball machine and some folks have to try to tip things in their favour (do it too much and its cheating) to "win" even if it causes all to loose?

BTW don't forget many of the holy hand signs are really clues left behind that present the procession (tilt direction) of our voyage on this ship called Earth v2.0, on the wave knowm as the Solar System on the enclosed ocean named Milky Way which if the oceans where one as before the all encompassing bang (not loud) the entire sea/ocean would be the uni-verse.
For many millions of years Earth was on cruise control but too much man made tilting and its CAP'MN i only have enuff powwhere tah keep da ship afloat ai can nae change the laws of physics...nah wea did i put de engine rrrroom.   TILT TILT