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Danny Vaults to Category 3 Status; Tropical Storm Kilo Aims for Hawaii

By: Bob Henson 5:16 PM GMT on August 21, 2015

Going against the grain of a hurricane-snuffing El Niño event, a tiny tropical cyclone has become the strongest hurricane in years over the deep Atlantic tropics. Hurricane Danny intensified dramatically on Thursday night and Friday morning, strengthening to Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At 11:00 am EDT, Danny was located near 14.0°N, 48.2°W, about 930 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and still moving west-northwest at a modest clip of around 10 mph. At 11:00 am EDT, Danny’s top sustained winds were estimated at close to 105 mph. Indicative of Danny’s unusually compact size, hurricane-force winds extended only 15 miles from the storm’s center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended out up to 70 miles. It can be difficult for satellite-based instruments to estimate the intensity of very small hurricanes like Danny due to limited sensor resolution, but it’s clear that Danny is a surprisingly well-organized hurricane. A NOAA P-3 hurricane-hunter aircraft originally scheduled to sample the air west of Danny was instead approaching the storm early Friday afternoon, so we may soon have a stronger estimate of Danny’s actual intensity. Regular NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance flights into Danny are slated to begin on Saturday afternoon. Update: Based on reconnaissance data from the NOAA flight mentioned above, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Danny to Category 3 status as of 2:00 pm EDT Friday, with top sustained winds at 115 mph. Danny is the first major Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Gonzalo in 2014.


Figure 1. Visible imagery of Danny at 1-km resolution from the GOES-East satellite. Image credit: CIMMS/University of Wisconsin.


Figure 2. A comparison of imagery collected aboard polar-orbiting satellite by the NASA Visible Imaging Infrared Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) at around the same time (close to 0400 GMT Friday, August 20) for Typhoon Atsani (left) and Hurricane (Danny). The two images are at the same scale, revealing how compact Danny is, although Danny has enlarged somewhat since this image was taken. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, RAMMB/CIRA/University of Colorado.

In satellite imagery, Danny appears almost like a scale model of a well-developed hurricane, with quite symmetric structure, a clearly defined eye, and a minuscule but dense central core of strong thunderstorms (convection). Spiral banding is focused toward the east and south sides of Danny, where the atmosphere is comparatively moist. Danny is the strongest hurricane observed in the open North Atlantic tropics between the Lesser Antilles and Africa since Hurricane Julia in 2010, which became a Category 4 further east (longitude 32°W) than any other Atlantic hurricane since regular satellite observations began in the 1970s.

Danny is also one of the smaller hurricanes on record in the Atlantic. The smallest tropical cyclone in Atlantic history is 2008’s Tropical Storm Marco, whose brief life played out in the southern Bay of Campeche. Marco’s central core of convection was only about 10 miles in diameter--smaller than many supercell thunderstorms! The Pacific basin tends to produce a wider variety of tropical cyclone sizes, from tiny typhoons to the world’s largest and strongest on record: Typhoon Tip, which boasted a global record low for sea-level barometric pressure (870 mililbars, or 25.69”) and gale-force winds that at one point spanned some 1,380 miles in diameter.

The outlook for Danny: becoming more complex
Track models remain in fairly good agreement on a continued west-northwest track for Danny. The NHC forecast track (see Figure 3) now brings Danny to the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Hispanola by Wednesday. Assuming the west-northwest bearing remains solid, only a slight deviation could play a big role in Danny’s future, as interaction with the mountainous terrain of these islands could quickly disrupt weaken a storm as small as Danny. If the model trend further toward the north continues, Danny has a better chance of escaping landfall on the islands; in this case, its small size could actually result in less disruption from the islands than for a larger hurricane.


Figure 3. The outlook for Hurricane Danny issued at 11:00 am EDT on Friday, August 21.

Danny’s recent surge in strength has drawn on seasonably warm warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 27-28°C, together with light to moderate wind shear (now running between 10 and 20 knots). Danny will be encountering higher wind shear (20 – 40 knots) over the next couple of days, as it nears a belt of upper-level westerlies extending across the Caribbean into the North Atlantic. Even though the shear within this zone has been lessening over the last couple of days, it will remain a formidable impediment to Danny. The same west-to-east belt also features a large zone of dry, dusty air with roots in the Saharan Desert. Thus far, Danny has managed to wall off a central core of convection intense enough to keep dry-air intrusions at bay, but this will become an increasing challenge for Danny over the next several days. Both dynamical and statistical models are in strong agreement that Danny will begin weakening by Saturday, as it encounters the increasing shear and dry air, and Danny will most likely be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane by Monday as it approaches Puerto Rico. An important caveat: tropical cyclones like Danny can strengthen or weaken very quickly, so there is more uncertainty than usual in this intensity forecast, especially at longer range.

If Danny manages to track well north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola with its structure relatively intact, it could encounter a more favorable environment for some potential restrengthening in the 5-to-6-day window, as suggested by the 0600 and 1200 GMT run of the GFDL model. Should such a scenario occur, the fate of Danny would then hinge on the state of an upper-level low that will scoot across the Midwest and Northeast over the next few days. An extension of that low is forecast to settle into the southeast United States as a weak upper-level trough, and the steering flow on the east side of that low would determine how soon Danny would recurve, assuming that it moves north of the Caribbean early next week. The most reliable long-range track models (GFS and ECMWF) suggest that this weak upper trough may be far enough east to keep Danny or its remnants offshore, but it is still far too soon to know with confidence how the upper trough will evolve.



Figure 4. A NOAA GOES-West infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Kilo (center), gathering strength south of Hawaii, at 1600Z (noon EDT) on Friday, August 21. Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Kilo gaining strength, threatening Hawaii
The risk of a rare Hawaiian hurricane is growing as Tropical Storm Kilo (pronounced KEE-lo) slowly organizes in the Central Pacific. (“Kilo” is a Hawaiian term meaning meaning “to observe carefully”; the U.S. Navy maintains a research vessel at the University of Hawaii dubbed the R/V Kilo Moana, or “observing the ocean carefully”.)

At 5:00 am HST (11:00 am EDT) Friday, Kilo was located near 12.7°N, 151.7°W, or about 720 miles southeast of Honolulu, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Kilo is moving west-northwest at about 16 mph, and that general track should continue through Sunday before upper-level westerlies force Kilo to undergo a sharp recurvature toward the north and northeast. Tropical cyclones approaching Hawaii from the south can generally maintain their strength more easily than those approaching from the east, as they spend less time over marginally warm water and may experience less wind shear. The two most intense hurricanes to strike Hawaii in modern times--Iniki (1992) and Dot (1959)--both arrived at Kauai from the south (see Figure 6 at bottom).


Figure 5. The outlook for Tropical Storm Kilo issued at 11:00 am EDT on Friday, August 21.

Kilo has a large, consolidated mass of convection within a moist overall environment, and there is a good chance that Kilo will strengthen significantly, with SSTs of 28-29°C (82-84°F) along its path, about 2°C above the seasonal average. Vertical wind shear is quite low over Kilo (less than 10 knots) and it has relaxed significantly over the last several days over Hawaii, further increasing the risk that Kilo will intensify. Although the amount of heat in the upper layer of the ocean is not particularly high by the standards of the Caribbean or tropical Northwest Pacific, Kilo’s brisk motion should minimize any negative effects from upwelled cooler water.

The timing and sharpness of Kilo’s recurvature will be critical to any potential impacts on Hawaii. The 1200 GMT GFDL model portrays a potent hurricane of at least Category 2 strength in the vicinity of Kauai by Monday, while the 1200 GMT Friday run of the HWRF projects a slower approach that could put other Hawaiian islands at risk in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. The most recent official outlook from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center places Kilo west-southwest of Kauai as an intensifying Category 2 storm. People throughout Hawaii need to keep very close tabs on Kilo, which could become the most significant hurricane to approach Hawaii since the devastating Hurricane Iniki of 1992. An Air Force C-130 hurricane-hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into Kilo late Friday night.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Invest 97 could become a subtropical storm south of Bermuda late this weekend or early next week, most likely moving north or northeastward away from the United States. Although Typhoon Goni and Typhoon Atsani continue to rage over the Northwest Pacific, both have embarked on recurvature, and neither of them pose major landfall threats over the next day or so, although Goni will pass near Japan’s southern islands over the weekend and could strike Kyushu as a weakening typhoon early next week. In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression 4-C could become a named storm but will remain far at sea.

I’ll have a full update by midday Saturday at the latest.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east have hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1499. BahaHurican:

Ernesto was a poser....


You said it perfectly lmao
Quoting 1492. BahaHurican:

I've been saying that Danny is a tutorial in one storm, and this is one reason why. If nothing else, the Danno gave the Wunderbloggers a cool refresher in steering dynamics and why TCs move the way they do. Predicting intensity with this little bugger has been difficult, so I guess we're learning something new there every day.

On the southerly track, I'm losing confidence in that as we get closer to Monday, mainly because this trough is lingering longer than I expected. They've been bouncing in and out of our area all summer, but this one has hung around. I think it'll stay long enough to draw even a weak Danny to the north side of the islands. After that we'll see. I've seen so many wacko tracks over the years that I'm a skeptic.


I say nah its moving out yeah it may have stayed a bit longer but its on its way out the atlantic ridge should quickly push underneath and push W while strengthening

Quoting 1491. FOREX:

I am so far from being an expert, but I did hear Dr. Postel say on TWC at 5am this morning that if Erika forms, she will have much better conditions as she moves westward than Danny had, AND as she moves closer to the Islands should still have much better conditions than Danny had. We shall see.
Largely BECAUSE of Danny ... the dust-clearer, the shear-smearer....
Quick question for anyone who has the answer. When I click to load the Tropical Atlantic Google earth recon all that opens up is the regular Google Earth pages with the menu options for everything other than recon. Anyone know why that is and how to get the recon page ?

TIA



Danny LOCATION...15.4N 52.0W. ...was in the same area as Andrew AUG 16 too.
hmmm. Intensity is different.


pre-invest 98L will be here soon! 28 west 15 north and bigger than danny in size
1507. Patrap
Quoting 1494. Starhopper:



This is a CV Hurricane, so Id be partial to respecting them,as they are the ones we worry and fret over as we approach the Heart of the CV Season.

Good time to check ones preps and supplies.

Calamity has a way of showing us that hindsight isn't worth a nickel post Storm.


Note the microwave image of His well built house a few hours ago.





Warmer water at 54W for Danny.
Quoting 1507. Patrap:



Hi Pat,

Any advice on my post 1504 ??

TIA
Quoting 1496. MAweatherboy1:

It's been a good fight, but shear has taken the upper hand over the past few hours. CDO shrinking, warming, and losing symmetry with the center moving towards the western edge of it. It has at least three days of conditions this bad or worse ahead as the NHC says... It'll need a miracle IMO. Global models should win out.




If only he weren't taking his sweet time getting out of there.

Isabel was also a slow moving CV hurricane though much further north, but had pristine conditions her entire life until sheared near the US/Bahamas.
1511. Patrap
Quoting 1504. kmanislander:

Quick question for anyone who has the answer. When I click to load the Tropical Atlantic Google earth recon all that opens up is the regular Google Earth pages with the menu options for everything other than recon. Anyone know why that is and how to get the recon page ?

TIA


Wait one counselor
Quoting 1495. Hurricanes101:

I'm surprised we don't have 98L yet
I'd be surprised if we don't by the day's end. That system is looking twice as good as it did even 12 hours ago ...

Quoting 1499. BahaHurican:

Oh, I don't think we've been trolled the same way... Danny at least gave us a real show... Ernesto was a poser....
Actually now that I think about it, so was the previous Ernesto in 2006 .... :o)
Quoting 1496. MAweatherboy1:

It's been a good fight, but shear has taken the upper hand over the past few hours. CDO shrinking, warming, and losing symmetry with the center moving towards the western edge of it. It has at least three days of conditions this bad or worse ahead as the NHC says... It'll need a miracle IMO. Global models should win out.

Agree, unfortunately for us in Puerto Rico, we need an strong storm , full of convection no a swirl of dry clouds ...
Quoting 1467. islander101010:

el nino has soft hands so far. i expect this flurry of atlantic activity to continue to mid sept then godzilla nino will shut it down


I don't feel as though we'll have an October like last season either.
Or is that 98L and 99L? Surprisingly good wave train despite El Niño.
Quoting 1488. Articuno:

Future Invest 98L looks really good... And WOW look at the wave coming off of Africa, high up but really impressive. (and can possibly give moisture to future 98L?)


1516. Patrap
for Kman,

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 16:17Z
Date: August 22, 2015
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05


16:17:00Z 17.900N 61.300W 391.9 mb
(~ 11.57 inHg) 7,755 meters
(~ 25,443 feet) - 427 meters
(~ 1,401 feet) From 78° at 10 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 11.5 mph) -17.8°C
(~ -0.0°F) -37.5°C
(~ -35.5°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
At 16:07:30Z (first observation), the observation was 63 statue miles (102 km) to the NE (40°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.

At 16:17:00Z (last observation), the observation was 65 statue miles (105 km) to the NE (34°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

At 16:07:30Z (first observation), the observation was 63 statue miles (102 km) to the NE (40°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.






Quoting 1515. TCweatherman:

Or is that 98L and 99L? Surprisingly good wave train despite El Niño.
This is the same wave train that's been supplying the EPac all summer.
1518. hydrus
Quoting 1488. Articuno:

Future Invest 98L looks really good... And WOW look at the wave coming off of Africa, high up but really impressive. (and can possibly give moisture to future 98L?)


Coming off at a higher latitude may help to spin it up quicker. Will feel the Earths rotation a bit soon than Danny....Not to mention it looks better that the wave that formed Dan.
1519. Patrap
On the Atlantic RECON Page Kman, choose the High Density obs in the URNT chosen.

Tropical Atlantic RECON
I'm out for a time, but I'm sure you guys will keep a wx eye on our active ATL til I get back ....

Bye!
Quoting 1510. win1gamegiantsplease:



If only he weren't taking his sweet time getting out of there.

Isabel was also a slow moving CV hurricane though much further north, but had pristine conditions her entire life until sheared near the US/Bahamas.

Yeah, certainly not the case this year, El Nino is doing its thing. I've been thoroughly impressed by every aspect of Danny, it's done far better than I thought it would. I would not have predicted a major hurricane at its latitude at any point this season. Realistically though, for all the talk of the supposed storm train we're going to be seeing, there's not much to it. We had to see something eventually, preseason forecasts were generally for 7-10 storms, not 3, lol. And typically El Nino years shut down quickly, so if not now, it may be never. We should see 2-4 more storms in the next month and a half or so, and that'll get us right in line with what we should have been expecting, a below average El Nino hurricane season.
1522. Patrap
AF307 Mission #01 into DANNY
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 16:27 UTC Aug 22, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 17.78°N 60.45°W
Bearing: 90° at 343 kt
Altitude: 7741 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 5 kt at 107°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

Quoting 1506. hurricanes2018:



pre-invest 98L will be here soon! 28 west 15 north and bigger than danny in size
15 North ? That's quite a high latitude, unless the "high'' is so strong to keep it going west..
Quoting 1519. Patrap:

On the Atlantic RECON Page Kman, choose the High Density obs in the URNT chosen.

Tropical Atlantic RECON


Got the pages but no Google Earth view. Will try later as I have to run out now. Thanks. May come back to you later on this.
1526. Patrap
OK Kman, I'm just up as wife had rough night here with Her surgery to her shoulder Thursday.

Im just getting back into the Danny seat here.
Quoting 1518. hydrus:

Coming off at a higher latitude may help to spin it up quicker. Will feel the Earths rotation a bit soon than Danny....Not to mention it looks better that the wave that formed Dan.

It's also seems to be a faster runner than Danny....
Hi, all. Blog update is on the way, a little later than midday--around 4 PM EDT. Thanks for your patience!

Cheers,
Bob
Quoting 1528. BobHenson:

Hi, all. Blog update is on the way, a little later than midday--around 4 PM EDT. Thanks for your patience!

Cheers,
Bob
No problem, maybe you can talk about how Danny can regain strength near the Bahamas and Florida?
1530. will45
NHC updates should be every 3 hours since watches are up correct?
Danny doesn't look too bad considering the conditions and his tiny size. I hope he speeds up a tad and grows a tad with the warmer waters he's headed into, otherwise he might end up like Hilda when she ran into the hostile conditions before Hawaii.
1532. Patrap


1534. FOREX
Quoting 1526. Patrap:

OK Kman, I'm just up as wife had rough night here with Her surgery to her shoulder Thursday.

Im just getting back into the Danny seat here.
If I lived closer to you I would help you out with your Wife. Go to store for you, etc., but I'm all the way in Panama City Beach. Hope she has a better night tonight.

He's a desert air nomad.
Quoting 1524. HuracanTaino:

15 North ? That's quite a high latitude, unless the "high'' is so strong to keep it going west..


well supposedly that is what the case is supposedly to be

Quoting 1525. kmanislander:



Got the pages but no Google Earth view. Will try later as I have to run out now. Thanks. May come back to you later on this.


you need Google Earth link

GE flie
Link
GE plug-in
Link
1537. Patrap
1538. Patrap
Quoting 1534. FOREX:

If I lived closer to you I would help you out with your Wife. Go to store for you, etc., but I'm all the way in Panama City Beach. Hope she has a better night tonight.


Well thanx Forex, we are fine. Daughter is a RN and She is here as she had 4 wisdom teeth removed a week ago, so Im the Chief Nurse, maid and cook.

But maybe we can look up each other when I get to Panama City again to dive St. Andrew state Park jetty.

: )
Watch development of 97L over the next 24 hours off the coast of the Carolina's ..

1541. Patrap
Ahh, the mythical "Carolina's"...near Mordor says Presslord.
BEST TRACK 15.3N 51.4W 12Z
NHC advisory 15.4N 52.0W 15Z
DVORAK PLOT 15.4N 51.4W 1145Z
Quoting 1530. will45:

NHC updates should be every 3 hours since watches are up correct?


Correct

Quoting 1541. Patrap:

Ahh, the mythical "Carolina's"...near Mordor says Presslord.


Ah yes, Mordor, otherwise known as Newport News

Well, we'll have to see what happens. Looks large there off of Africa (R click and hit view image for large) .
Be back later all. Good info,,,thanks.
Quoting 1530. will45:

NHC updates should be every 3 hours since watches are up correct?

Not yet maybe after the 5pm advisory this evening

Quoting 1539. whitewabit:

Watch development of 97L over the next 24 hours off the coast of the Carolina's ..




nah I doubt it

12Z UKMET Alaska?


HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
1550. FOREX
Quoting 1547. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z UKMET Alaska?



Does this show pre-Erika going OTS or am I interpreting this wrong?
Blog Update
My forecast for Hurricane Danny.
1552. aquak9
so... are we pretty much done with Danny?
1553. Patrap
Addition to Danny's RECON package Fleet

NASA'S DC-8 WILL DEPART KFLL 23/1100Z FOR A 6 HR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND DANNY. FLIGHT LEVEL 35,000FT. NO DROPS.
1555. Patrap
1556. aquak9
Quoting 1547. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z UKMET Alaska?





Storm 50 (see bottom left of graphic) is just a place-holder. These are not real tracks of anything.
1557. LargoFl
1558. Patrap
Danny is showing the masses that a CV seedling that matures into a Hurricane is never a thing to dismiss, nor poo-poo.

Quoting 1556. aquak9:



Storm 50 (see bottom left of graphic) is just a place-holder. These are not real tracks of anything.


Oh waterpup


- Tropical cyclones which are forecast to develop by the UK Met Office model utilize the number 50.
1560. Patrap
1561. aquak9
re-1558- but it's still not gonna go Frederick on us, is it? naaaahhh.... this oughtta be a done deal by the 26th, 27th at latest.
1562. Grothar
Quoting 1557. LargoFl:


wow!!
1565. Patrap
Kessler AFB # 307 en route to DANNY

1566. Drakoen
Danny looks a bit more organized on the HWRF 12z through the 69hr.

Quoting 1552. aquak9:

so... are we pretty much done with Danny?


Danny has that say so
1568. aquak9
1559. nrtiwlnvragn

oh wow, thanks. Storm 50 was always a joke to me... so it's real? hahaha

I REALLY need to get out from under this rock of mine every once in a while...
Quoting 1561. aquak9:

re-1558- but it's still not gonna go Frederick on us, is it? naaaahhh.... this oughtta be a done deal by the 26th, 27th at latest.
Danny was suppose to be a done deal days ago according to some here and a done deal this morning but has refused (so far) to give up.I don't like storms that don't give up easy.
LBAR on adventure, Loke to CA/OR..

1571. aquak9
maybe I oughtta just say "WOW!!!" to everything.

Probably keep me out of a lotta trouble.
1572. Patrap
Quoting 1555. Patrap:




hmm kinda reminds me of Danny a day or so ago
Quoting 1568. aquak9:

1559. nrtiwlnvragn

oh wow, thanks. Storm 50 was always a joke to me... so it's real? hahaha

I REALLY need to get out from under this rock of mine every once in a while...


You can also go to the UKMET Office Webpage and click on "Atlantic and north-east Pacific" under "Text guidance messages".
Quoting 1563. hurricanes2018:

wow!!


That's very interesting to me in particular, because I am going to visit my parents in PA from the 25th-29th and I'm thinking, great, the one time FL has a chance at a storm for me to chase, I will be out of town! But if it is north of Hispaniola on the 27th, I may be back to see the storm after all. In the unlikely event it does actually A. come toward FL and B. stay/regenerate into a significant storm, it will be bearing down on FL on the 29th.
12Z GFDL Danny


HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.95 LAT: 23.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.10
1578. FOREX
Quoting 1576. washingtonian115:

Que Jaws music...
Need the picture of the dude from jaws who owned the boat.
Quoting 1558. Patrap:

Danny is showing the masses that a CV seedling that matures into a Hurricane is never a thing to dismiss, nor poo-poo.




That's a big increase in convection in a short time. And we're told that it's in 30+ kts of shear? I'm starting to get a bit cynical about shear maps. Last night, there was just a narrow corridor of 20-30 kts of shear in Danny's path, with much less after that, all the way to the Bahamas.

He should have been through it in a few hours. This morning, the shear map showed a much broader band of 30+ kts in its path. I know shear changes, but if it changes as much as that in such a short time, it's pretty useless information.
1580. Drakoen
Quoting 1577. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z GFDL Danny


HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.95 LAT: 23.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.10


1581. Patrap
....Quint'
1583. Drakoen
GFDL suggests Danny would recurve:

It's so hot here in Antigua, can't wait for those showers to cool us off
1585. Grothar
I have real trust issues with the hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL). They certainly have their moments, but frequently they just don't add up. Drak pointed out how the new HWRF is a little more bullish on Danny... but it also shows it as a 75kt hurricane at 18z tomorrow, which is absurd. Meanwhile, the GFDL initializes Danny at 95kts, much too high, yet it is ~20kts weaker than the HWRF by 18z tomorrow, in more realistic territory. Just makes it hard to have confidence. Granted, the global models have issues as well, but I still tend to prefer them, or at least an informed interpretation of their solutions

Edit: This all comes from Levi's graphics, which I presume are accurate on those wind speed parameters.
Quoting 1579. yonzabam:



That's a big increase in convection in a short time. And we're told that it's in 30+ kts of shear? I'm starting to get a bit cynical about shear maps. Last night, there was just a narrow corridor of 20-30 kts of shear in Danny's path, with much less after that, all the way to the Bahamas.

He should have been through it in a few hours. This morning, the shear map showed a much broader band of 30+ kts in its path. I know shear changes, but if it changes as much as that in such a short time, it's pretty useless information.


LOL that's not Danny ha ha ha lol

that a Pac system lol

here is Danny



although I do have to say Danny is increasing in convection
1588. Patrap
Never tempt the fate's

There is a Lot of Spirit Mojo a lurking as we close on August 29th.


Quint: Cage goes in the water, you go in the water. Shark's in the water. Our shark.

[sings]
Quint: Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies. Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. For we've received orders for to sail back to Boston. And so nevermore shall we see you again.



1589. Grothar
Quoting 1583. Drakoen:

GFDL suggests Danny would recurve:




1590. Patrap
Quoting 1585. Grothar:




This just how the West Pacific went a week ago, the "Owl Eye's"
1591. FOREX
Quoting 1588. Patrap:

Never tempt the fate's

There is a Lot of Spirit Mojo a lurking as we close on August 29th.


Quint: Cage goes in the water, you go in the water. Shark's in the water. Our shark.

[sings]
Quint: Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies. Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. For we've received orders for to sail back to Boston. And so nevermore shall we see you again.




LMAO, I needed that.
Quoting 1589. Grothar:






thanks Gro.

What do you think will happen with Danny?
Quoting 1586. MAweatherboy1:

I have real trust issues with the hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL). They certainly have their moments, but frequently they just don't add up. Drak pointed out how the new HWRF is a little more bullish on Danny... but it also shows it as a 75kt hurricane at 18z tomorrow, which is absurd. Meanwhile, the GFDL initializes Danny at 95kts, much too high, yet it is ~20kts weaker than the HWRF by 18z tomorrow, in more realistic territory. Just makes it hard to have confidence. Granted, the global models have issues as well, but I still tend to prefer them, or at least an informed interpretation of their solutions

Edit: This all comes from Levi's graphics, which I presume are accurate on those wind speed parameters.


Careful looking at GFDL surface, many times it is 35 meters. 12Z GFDL init:

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -51.49 LAT: 15.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.16
Recon is descending
Quoting 1583. Drakoen:

GFDL suggests Danny would recurve:




The GFDL has been all over the place with this little storm
called Danny

Taco :o)
1596. FOREX
Hey PATRAP, when Erika is made an invest can you post the picture of Quint looking at her? I could really use that. Thanks.lol
Quoting 1558. Patrap:

Danny is showing the masses that a CV seedling that matures into a Hurricane is never a thing to dismiss, nor poo-poo.


Quoting 1579. yonzabam:



That's a big increase in convection in a short time. And we're told that it's in 30+ kts of shear? I'm starting to get a bit cynical about shear maps. Last night, there was just a narrow corridor of 20-30 kts of shear in Danny's path, with much less after that, all the way to the Bahamas.

He should have been through it in a few hours. This morning, the shear map showed a much broader band of 30+ kts in its path. I know shear changes, but if it changes as much as that in such a short time, it's pretty useless information.
Quoting 1587. wunderkidcayman:



LOL that's not Danny ha ha ha lol

that a Pac system lol

here is Danny



although I do have to say Danny is increasing in convection


however much some people whish Danny was looking that got and located about 14N 50W this Pac system looks rather good located somewhere around 14N 150W

Quoting 1589. Grothar:






What were you thinking, Ms. Gro would not notice you blogging at 3 AM?
Good morning!! everybody!, not posting much these days.
In my personal opinion don't like for any tropical system going North of the Islands, specially we leaving in South Florida.
I can see how the GFDL model intensify Danny North of the Island, as other models dissipate the system, all will depend on how much damage the dry air and shear will do to the cyclone in the next 3 days or so,and how it's structure survive this hostile conditions,but this is a fighter system,so going into very warm waters in our vecinity make me a little bit nervous at this point.
I hope there will be a weakness in the ridge for Danny to escape and curve out to sea once he is past Hispaniola.
That's Kilo and you posted it twice! You must be distracted......look at the longitude 160.

Quoting 1558. Patrap:

Danny is showing the masses that a CV seedling that matures into a Hurricane is never a thing to dismiss, nor poo-poo.


1602. FOREX
Quoting 1587. wunderkidcayman:



LOL that's not Danny ha ha ha lol

that a Pac system lol

here is Danny



although I do have to say Danny is increasing in convection
Good eye WKC, Good eye!!!!!
NOAA's GONZO is in the Air
Quoting 1595. taco2me61:



The GFDL has been all over the place with this little storm
called Danny

Taco :o)


GFDL was right on when it showed Danny going north of PR and Hispaniola.
Quoting 1593. nrtiwlnvragn:



Careful looking at GFDL surface, many times it is 35 meters. 12Z GFDL init:

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -51.49 LAT: 15.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.16


Ah, that would probably explain it, thanks nrt! I figured I was doing something wrong, because your text files often showed different values.
Quoting 1572. Patrap:

WOW, looks like Danny is still making his own moisture field and busting through this dry air! Part if me wants the little guy to hang on, but the PTSD (post-traumatic storm disorder of 2004 and 2005) shudders at the thought while staring at the projected path! Do not want a FL storm, but just can't help rooting the little guy on! Guess I have issues! LOL
1607. sar2401
Quoting 1546. wunderkidcayman:


Not yet maybe after the 5pm advisory this evening
They go to three hourly updates when watches or warnings are issued for US territory, which is happening now.
The P3 hurricane hunter aircraft is set to fly into Danny

Excerpt:

The Doppler radar data collected during this and future TDR missions will be transmitted in near realtime to NOAA’s hurricane weather forecast model.


1609. sar2401
Quoting 1601. DogtownMex:

That's Kilo and you posted it twice! You must be distracted......look at the longitude 160.


Sometimes those CV seedlings end up a lot further west than one might expect. :-)
RECON almost into danny entering NW quad
The shear complacency of people in many Hurricane prone areas is unreal. It has been 10 years since a Hurricane has hit Florida, and more years in many other areas. We have seen with Danny that no tropical system should ever be written off. Danny was a major Hurricane and with that kind of signature he has to be taken seriously. The one Hurricane that surprised many was Charley in 2004. He was a small system that quickly ramped up from a cat 2 to high cat 4 then took a hard turn and devastated Punta Gorda. We were saved in Tampa Bay. All I'm saying is never let your guard down especially this time of year. We all know that all it takes is one surprise that can effect many very quickly. Now is the time to have your affairs in order not when all hell breaks loose in the media.
Its amazing that Danny has already been around for 4 days lol
Quoting 1607. sar2401:

They go to three hourly updates when watches or warnings are issued for US territory, which is happening now.


is that right well explain this

HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

it should say

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Intermediary advisory at 2 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
bit it don't

maybe after the 5pm advisory they will start it at 8pm


Quoting 1613. wunderkidcayman:


is that right well explain this

HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

it should say

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Intermediary advisory at 2 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
bit it don't

maybe after the 5pm advisory they will start it at 8pm





There was just a 2pm advisory

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Danny is performing pretty well given the conditions. I can't comment really on the shear but he's preventing the dry air from getting to him very well and though it doesn't resemble a storm, convection isn't dying down. Unless something drastic changes, I disagree with NHC's forecast of a depression by D5 given the locations where will be moving too.
Quoting 1606. CitikatzSouthFL:


WOW, looks like Danny is still making his own moisture field and busting through this dry air! Part if me wants the little guy to hang on, but the PTSD (post-traumatic storm disorder of 2004 and 2005) shudders at the thought while staring at the projected path! Do not want a FL storm, but just can't help rooting the little guy on! Guess I have issues! LOL
I think we're rooting for him because he's so little and so far hasn't affected land.
Quoting 1611. frank727:

The shear complacency of people in many Hurricane prone areas is unreal. It has been 10 years since a Hurricane has hit Florida, and more years in many other areas. We have seen with Danny that no tropical system should ever be written off. Danny was a major Hurricane and with that kind of signature he has to be taken seriously. The one Hurricane that surprised many was Charley in 2004. He was a small system that quickly ramped up from a cat 2 to high cat 4 then took a hard turn and devastated Punta Gorda. We were saved in Tampa Bay. All I'm saying is never let your guard down especially this time of year. We all know that all it takes is one surprise that can effect many very quickly. Now is the time to have your affairs in order not when all hell breaks loose in the media.


I so "Agree" with this statement.
Now back to "Lurk Mode" because I'm not one that
likes to mis-speak on anything. I will say this though
if you see a plus on what you are saying then you'll
know I agree with you aswell, other than that I will not
try to make to many comments on this because I have
been so wrong on so many times. I need to learn more
first.... That includes the big "B" that I got for off topic
when everyone was off topic.....

Taco :o)
98L should be designated very soon


the yellow x move west
1621. Proflaw
Quoting 1611. frank727:

The shear complacency of people in many Hurricane prone areas is unreal.


High shear associated with el nino may justify the complacency. Sometimes spelling really matters. :)
Radar images wont be pretty


The green blob inches closer to the Florida SE Coast. Keep coming green blob. We need the rain.
1624. scott39
Wind shear maps are fickled.
Quoting 1617. taco2me61:



I so "Agree" with this statement.
Now back to "Lurk Mode" because I'm not one that
likes to mis-speak on anything. I will say this though
if you see a plus on what you are saying then you'll
know I agree with you aswell, other than that I will not
try to make to many comments on this because I have
been so wrong on so many times. I need to learn more
first.... That includes the big "B" that I got for off topic
when everyone was off topic.....

Taco :o)


Floridians already think we are impervious to hurricanes... for some reason.
1627. Patrap
Quoting 1596. FOREX:

Hey PATRAP, when Erika is made an invest can you post the picture of Quint looking at her? I could really use that. Thanks.lol


I'd like but at this time I don't think it is appropriate as we have a Hurricane in the Atlantic.

Plus I dont need a BAN to miss commenting on the NEW #WUTV Show invading TWC Monday.



Quoting 1570. Skyepony:

LBAR on adventure, Loke to CA/OR..




The hipster hurricane
Quoting 1611. frank727:

The shear complacency of people in many Hurricane prone areas is unreal. It has been 10 years since a Hurricane has hit Florida, and more years in many other areas. We have seen with Danny that no tropical system should ever be written off. Danny was a major Hurricane and with that kind of signature he has to be taken seriously. The one Hurricane that surprised many was Charley in 2004. He was a small system that quickly ramped up from a cat 2 to high cat 4 then took a hard turn and devastated Punta Gorda. We were saved in Tampa Bay. All I'm saying is never let your guard down especially this time of year. We all know that all it takes is one surprise that can effect many very quickly. Now is the time to have your affairs in order not when all hell breaks loose in the media.
Been one of the strongest summertime highs off SFL in recent memory as evidenced by the severe drought over E Miami Dade also. Just picked up 4 more cases of bottled water.
1630. Grothar
Small firing up in the SW quadrant. Tenacious little twit, this Danny is.

1633. aquak9
*shear complacency*
right I was saying there should be Watches for those Island and now they are

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a tropical storm watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.
04L/H/D/C1
AOI INIT INV 98L
1636. Patrap
Quoting 1630. Grothar:

Small firing up in the SW quadrant. Tenacious little twit, this Danny is.




Tenacious "D".
18:13:30Z 15.700N 52.700W 696.0 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 3,130 meters
(~ 10,269 feet) 989.8 mb
(~ 29.23 inHg)
From 292%uFFFD at 13 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 15.0 mph) 19.3%uFFFDC
(~ 66.7%uFFFDF) 5.0%uFFFDC
(~ 41.0%uFFFDF) 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 26.8 knots (~ 30.8 mph)

Does not look like they quite hit the center either, so the 985mb may not be far off

i see add a yellow x
new RECON out

NOAAs MISS PIGGY in the AIR

current List of Birds in the Air
USAFR's WC-130J AF307
NOAA's Gulfstream IV-SP GONZO
NOAA's WP-3D MISS PIGGY
1641. Grothar
Quoting 1598. nrtiwlnvragn:



What were you thinking, Ms. Gro would not notice you blogging at 3 AM?


I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"



Quoting 1552. aquak9:

so... are we pretty much done with Danny?
We may be done with Danny, but is Danny done with us????

lol ... hey aqua...
Quoting 1600. rmbjoe1954:

I hope there will be a weakness in the ridge for Danny to escape and curve out to sea once he is past Hispaniola.
This would be ideal, but unfortunately rather unlikely ... :o/
Quoting 1584. wadadlian:

It's so hot here in Antigua, can't wait for those showers to cool us off
Hope you guys get a couple of inches well from Danny... I hear it's been extra dry as well as hot ...
1643. aquak9
SOOO tempted to quote Early Cuyler right now....

but it's probably the only thing that'd get banned faster than JFV.
1644. GetReal


Danny continues an awesome job of punching through the wind shear and SAL combo that is still trying to gang up on him. The Ninja Danny will have none of it!
1645. Patrap
Quoting 1637. Hurricanes101:

18:13:30Z 15.700N 52.700W 696.0 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 3,130 meters
(~ 10,269 feet) 989.8 mb
(~ 29.23 inHg)
From 292%uFFFD at 13 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 15.0 mph) 19.3
(~ 66.7%) 5.0
(~ 41.0 17 knots
(~ 19.6 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 26.8 knots (~ 30.8 mph)

Does not look like they quite hit the center either, so the 985mb may not be far off


This is encouraging for FL, but Bahamas would be affected.


we adding yellow x on land now!!
1648. sar2401
Quoting 1613. wunderkidcayman:


is that right well explain this

HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

it should say

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Intermediary advisory at 2 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
bit it don't

maybe after the 5pm advisory they will start it at 8pm



The intermediate advisories are always the three hourly period between the normal complete advisories.

"Intermediate public advisories are issued every 3 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Additionally, special public advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone."
Link
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"




area putting on nice show for the people more so than expected lookoutus maybe the most excellent choice yet
1650. Patrap
Ok I'm done lurking for the season. My memory fails me can someone refresh me. On the model runs 6z 12z etc what are the actual times again. Also given the error in the 4 & 5 day track being nudged ever so slightly north each time, would it be fair to say that by Monday if Danny does stay north of the islands the final destination should be known. (Recurve or GOM)
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"




maybe a red x for that tropical wave
1653. Patrap
1654. Grothar
Quoting 1647. hurricanes2018:



we adding yellow x on land now!!


It's happened before.

Christine was named while still on land. 1973
Quoting 1638. hurricanes2018:


i see add a yellow x
99l right on the heels of 98 if its tagged it will be soon I reckon
1656. aquak9
gonna need a bigger truck-boat-truck...
1657. Patrap
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"






Yea saw your 98L entry, if only NHC would change from GENESIS018 to 98L. Lookoutus is 30 East?


Quoting 1627. Patrap:



I'd like but at this time I don't think it is appropriate as we have a Hurricane in the Atlantic.

Plus I dont need a BAN to miss commenting on the NEW #WUTV Show invading TWC Monday.






awww...i want one of those shirts
Quoting 1607. sar2401:

They go to three hourly updates when watches or warnings are issued for US territory, which is happening now.

Not just US territory, anywhere in the basin. IIRC they do so as part of their mandate under the WMO.
Quoting 1609. sar2401:

Sometimes those CV seedlings end up a lot further west than one might expect. :-)
Not just a joke, as numerous CV seedlings cross the isthmus and propagate in the Pac . . .
Quoting 1613. wunderkidcayman:


is that right well explain this

HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

I'd guess watches hadn't been initiated at that point. That's the way it sounds from the 2 p.m. update. Even if USVI and PR weren't in the potential watch zone, they'd still do it.
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"






wait so that is 2 waves behind soon to be 98L? So Danny could be the 1st of 4 systems?
1663. sar2401
Quoting 1651. fredric1979:

Ok I'm done lurking for the season. My memory fails me can someone refresh me. On the model runs 6z 12z etc what are the actual times again. Also given the error in the 4 & 5 day track being nudged ever so slightly north each time, would it be fair to say that by Monday if Danny does stay north of the islands the final destination should be known. (Recurve or GOM)
There's a converter here for local time to UTC, which is the same as Zulu (z). Since the current forecast is for Danny to not even get to Puerto Rico until Tuesday, things should still be up in the air to some degree on Monday.
1664. Patrap
Quoting 1656. aquak9:

gonna need a bigger truck-boat-truck...


I have to check the pine cone Liquor box myself...,you know, for Cane Supplies.

Come on Rusty..

aww Daddy'..


Quoting 1658. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yea saw your 98L entry, if only NHC would change from GENESIS018 to 98L. Lookouts is 30 East?





If there information or a link to this GENESIS018 ?
1666. GetReal
I know one thing at the moment so much for the elnono thing surpressing mdr action cause there is action and a lot more yet to come by the looks of things
Quoting 1663. sar2401:

There's a converter here for local time to UTC, which is the same as Zulu (z). Since the current forecast is for Danny to not even get to Puerto Rico until Tuesday, things should still be up in the air to some degree on Monday.

Thank you
Quoting 1662. Hurricanes101:



wait so that is 2 waves behind soon to be 98L? So Danny could be the 1st of 4 systems?
and its a super el nono
1671. nash36
Afternoon, all.

Danny is becoming elongated. You can really see the SWRLY trades chewing up the western flank of the storm. He's putting up a valiant fight, but three days of this will eventually get to the core.
Quoting 1617. taco2me61:



I so "Agree" with this statement.
Now back to "Lurk Mode" because I'm not one that
likes to mis-speak on anything. I will say this though
if you see a plus on what you are saying then you'll
know I agree with you aswell, other than that I will not
try to make to many comments on this because I have
been so wrong on so many times. I need to learn more
first.... That includes the big "B" that I got for off topic
when everyone was off topic.....

Taco :o)
Questions are not bad; mistakes are another way to learn, so long as you figure out how to fix them.
Quoting 1623. HurriHistory:


The green blob inches closer to the Florida SE Coast. Keep coming green blob. We need the rain.
Everything is cool so long as it stays a green blob ....
Quoting 1633. aquak9:

*shear complacency*
Punster.
1673. GetReal
Quoting 1671. nash36:

Afternoon, all.

Danny is becoming elongated. You can really see the SWRLY trades chewing up the western flank of the storm. He's putting up a valiant fight, but three days of this will eventually get to the core.
expect the unexpected
1675. Patrap


1676. Grothar
Quoting 1662. Hurricanes101:



wait so that is 2 waves behind soon to be 98L? So Danny could be the 1st of 4 systems?


Very possibly. But not unusual for this time of year, which is nearing its peak. We should be lucky it is an el Nino year, because of the "shear" size of them, it could have been bad for a lot of people
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"




I saw you .... just didn't say anything because my eyes were open but the rest of me was sleeping too hard to type ....
1678. Patrap
Looking at the recon data, Danny may be a Tropical storm now...




Im going with 65Mph, w Gust to 75
Quoting 1676. Grothar:



Very possibly. But not unusual for this time of year, which is nearing its peak. We should be lucky it is an el Nino year, because of the "shear" size of them, it could have been bad for a lot of people


the good with the bad always gro...i remember the flooding in 82-83. i lost all my pretty dolls along with a house.
1680. GetReal
1681. FOREX
with pre-98 moving quickly at 25 mph how long would it take to get to the islands, maybe 10 days?
1682. nash36
Quoting 1678. Patrap:

Looking at the recon data, Danny may be a Tropical storm now...




Im going with 65Mph, w Gust to 75



Sounds reasonable, Pat.

How's your wife feeling?
the wave near Africa (soon to be 98L) could be very interesting because it is further north than Danny ways and yet it is expected to move basically due west most of its journey. It is expected to be near the NE Islands only a few days after Danny makes his nearest approach

Biggest thing this next one could have against it is the fast movement as it is moving at close to 25mph
Quoting 1664. Patrap:



I have to check the pine cone Liquor box myself...,you know, for Cane Supplies.

Come on Rusty..

aww Daddy'..





wellll, you KNOW you are safe.. the pup already pupped!
1685. sar2401
Quoting 1660. BahaHurican:

Not just US territory, anywhere in the basin. IIRC they do so as part of their mandate under the WMO.
Not just a joke, as numerous CV seedlings cross the isthmus and propagate in the Pac . . .

I was under the impression that intermediate advisories were only done when there was US territory or coastal waters involved. My brain is too fried from my seven day cold to find the reference now though.

That would be a real sight. Danny goes through the Gulf, into the BOC, comes out out on the other side, and gets another name. With this year, who knows?
1686. Patrap
Quoting 1682. nash36:



Sounds reasonable, Pat.

How's your wife feeling?


Resting comfortably and barking orders,..so a tad better.
Thanx, : )

Quoting 1657. Patrap:


Wow.... wait til tonight.....
1688. nash36
Quoting 1686. Patrap:



Resting comfortably and barking orders,..so a tad better.
Thanx, : )




Would we have it any other way? Lol.
Quoting 1651. fredric1979:

Ok I'm done lurking for the season. My memory fails me can someone refresh me. On the model runs 6z 12z etc what are the actual times again. Also given the error in the 4 & 5 day track being nudged ever so slightly north each time, would it be fair to say that by Monday if Danny does stay north of the islands the final destination should be known. (Recurve or GOM)
I really wonder if the creep of the track Northward isn't a function of the models initializing with Danny's status a day and a half ago when he was increasing strength rapidly. Seems like the models would assume the stronger storm would feel the gap to the North more, but now with strength waning it would seem logical to have a more Westerly trend. The actual track sure looks more West (of WNW) than Northwest to me.
1690. beell
Morning Soundings from Barbados and Guadeloupe. Both indicating 30 knots of SW/SSW shear at the present time over the NE Caribbean. Shear values from the Barbados (closest to Danny) sounding may be slightly tainted by the low level storm circulation and not correct (could have a high bias). Shear is forecast to lift northward ahead of Danny over the next 3-4 days.


The dry air may pose a more formidable obstacle to development. The soundings indicate an atmosphere that is far from what might be expected in a generic "mean" (as in "average") tropical sounding.


08/22 12Z Barbados


08/12Z Gudaloupe

univ of wyo.edu
Quoting 1665. Stormchaser2007:



If there information or a link to this GENESIS018 ?


They only show up in the ATCF Index or in the Best Track file, such as the one for Danny which was GENESIS013.
1692. sar2401
Quoting 1681. FOREX:

with pre-98 moving quickly at 25 mph how long would it take to get to the islands, maybe 10 days?
It's 3264 miles from Martinique to Freetown, Sierra Leone, to use two points as a rough estimate. That would be a little more than 5 days according to my frequently wrong math. It probably would not continue at 25 mph the entire distance however.
1693. Patrap
If one has time and is inclined, check out my blog entry as it contains the Wunderful WWLTV Katrina 10 day's, 10 year's documentary.

Its well done with footage from the Miss Gulf Coast to Grand Isle,La.

Just click my handle here to get there.

Quoting 1692. sar2401:

It's 3264 miles from Martinique to Freetown, Sierra Leone, to use two points as a rough estimate. That would be a little more than 5 days according to my frequently wrong math. It probably would not continue at 25 mph the entire distance however.


most of the forecast models had it getting near the Bahamas only about 2-3 days after Danny
Recon found 989.9mb with 67kt surface winds so far. Given there should be some slightly higher winds in the northeast quadrant of the storm and they just missed the center, I think it supports a 988 mb 70kt hurricane.
Quoting 1685. sar2401:

I was under the impression that intermediate advisories were only done when there was US territory or coastal waters involved. My brain is too fried from my seven day cold to find the reference now though.

That would be a real sight. Danny goes through the Gulf, into the BOC, comes out out on the other side, and gets another name. With this year, who knows?
I know they go to three hour throughout the basin cause they've done it for the Bahamas, Barbados, the Caymans, Haiti, JA, etc. numerous times over the years. The various basins have one met office with responsibility for notifying / providing official reports on TCs in each basin. The US has three basins.
danny
steering flow
Atlantic ridge rebuilding and moving W
trof starting to lift and move out





Quoting 1646. unknowncomic:

This is encouraging for FL, but Bahamas would be affected.

Almost all of the models that show the recurve are known for being bad at predicting hurricanes...
Glad the wife is doing better Pat...when us women bark, you know we are ok ;)

I see the yellow crayon has been busy. I'll feel much better when Tenacious Danny (thanks Grothar) curves out to sea...those models are getting too close for comfort this time of year .
Quoting 1660. BahaHurican:

Not just US territory, anywhere in the basin. IIRC they do so as part of their mandate under the WMO.
Not just a joke, as numerous CV seedlings cross the isthmus and propagate in the Pac . . .
I'd guess watches hadn't been initiated at that point. That's the way it sounds from the 2 p.m. update. Even if USVI and PR weren't in the potential watch zone, they'd still do it.



Baha you are correct in that intermediate advisories are issued whenever watches and warnings are in effect. NHC 'complete advisory' refer to the full suite of products which include 'Public Adivisory', 'Forecast Advisory', 'Forecast Discussion' and 'Wind Speed Probabilities' were as the 'intermediate advisory' only updates the 'Public Advisory'
1701. Grothar
Quoting 1679. WaterWitch11:



the good with the bad always gro...i remember the flooding in 82-83. i lost all my pretty dolls along with a house.


That is why I never root for a system to hit any land. The loss of life is, of course, the most important, but the loss of personal items which can never be replaced is also a tragedy. We may joke sometimes, but the disruption in lives and property is tragic. Sorry about your loss.
NOAA's MISS PIGGY nearing Danny appears to be entering SW Quad
That is weird, the vortex shows surface winds of hurricane force, but the pressure they used was 996mb, maybe that should say 986?
1704. Grothar
Quoting 1699. hurricanehanna:

Glad the wife is doing better Pat...when us women bark, you know we are ok ;)

I see the yellow crayon has been busy. I'll feel much better when Tenacious Danny (thanks Grothar) curves out to sea...those modesl are getting too close for comfort this time of year .


Oh, I just posted that ECMWF because it showed a recurve. I don't necessarily believe it. With a weaker system, it would well be in the Southern Bahams, but I hope a weak system.
Quoting 1697. wunderkidcayman:

danny
steering flow
Atlantic ridge rebuilding and moving W
trof starting to lift and move out






Looks like its going to the Caymans.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 18:50Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 18:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15%uFFFD44'N 52%uFFFD41'W (15.7333N 52.6833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,080m (10,105ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the ENE (59%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144%uFFFD at 49kts (From the SE at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NE (52%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12%uFFFDC (54%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20%uFFFDC (68%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3%uFFFDC (37%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
1707. sar2401
Quoting 1669. fredric1979:


Thank you
You're welcome. Danny is going to be a very difficult storm in terms of both track and intensity. 75 miles one way or another can make the difference between an open wave and regenerating hurricane. I know I'd sure like some certainty, but all we can do is watch the actual evolution and see how well it matches up with what the models predicted 24 hours earlier for a clue.
Quoting 1698. Camerooski:

Almost all of the models that show the recurve are known for being bad at predicting hurricanes...

can change drastically between now and the
Quoting 1689. CaneFreeCR:

I really wonder if the creep of the track Northward isn't a function of the models initializing with Danny's status a day and a half ago when he was increasing strength rapidly. Seems like the models would assume the stronger storm would feel the gap to the North more, but now with strength waning it would seem logical to have a more Westerly trend. The actual track sure looks more West (of WNW) than Northwest to me.
It's supposed be be that way right now, based on earlier forecasts. I'm thinking there's another dynamic that's pulling Danny's remnants on that more northerly track post PR, and that is where models expect a lot of restrengthening they are pulling Danny north. The models that dissipate Danny or keep it as a TD also have tracks close to the Greater Antilles.
Quoting 1695. Envoirment:

Recon found 989.9mb with 67kt surface winds so far. Given there should be some slightly higher winds in the northeast quadrant of the storm and they just missed the center, I think it supports a 988 mb 70kt hurricane.
Amazing that Danny is still holding on the the hurricane status. That escalation to cat 3, and the likelihood that it was at that strength for longer that the track point implies, is probably what's keeping Danny so intact at this time ....
Quoting 1705. unknowncomic:

Looks like its going to the Caymans.
Let's hope not. Have you seen the SSTs in that area? and there's supposed to be a perfectly useful trough next week, just in time to pull a major into the Gulf ....

EDIT: I left out the [shudder]
Quoting 1611. frank727:
A few prep tips I've learned from years in Florida. :

Have insurance beforehand, get some cash and GAS. Board up the windows and sliders (plywood will be in short supply). They are always scrambling for plywood and batteries, tap cons, generators, water, canned food, Sterno, etc- when a storm arrives. It is nuts. The scene can be worse than a Black Friday laptop sale. It is repeated every single time one shows sadly. Who doesn't remember the camera showing empty shelves at the hardware and grocery? Out of gas signs? Amazes me. Plywood takes forever to go bad if you stack it on 2x4s. Buy it early and re-use. Storm shutters are better for sure. Roll downs can help lots, but also can be shredded. I saw it in Wilma. 1000s of slats all over the lawns of tall condos. Also? Many garage doors fail. Know why and how to secure.

The higher you are up the stronger the winds are, so know that and factor it, research it. Generators cause carbon monoxide. Do not run it in your garage or anywhere it can affect humans. On your property or others. There is more than a few horror stories each hurricane due to this and it preventable and sad.

Triple secure the doors!! Most houses fail there. Bet on the main roads being gridlock traffic and plan accordingly, secure place to stay if you leave. Why not now with a friend just in case one ever does show? etc etc etc. Cant be too prepared. Have an important papers box to go with keepsakes?

*Secure yourself and those you love, everything else is replaceable.*

Stay away from unboarded windows, Glass can shatter and fly through drywall even. Ever noticed how debris blows down the street? It's no joke. Stay inside.

Tying up a boat more does little in bad ones. I know there are plenty saved by that but many more end up in LARGE piles at the end of the canal sunken. In my 400 yard canal there were 12 foot waves (Wilma) whose troughs were level with the docks. It was like a raging sea. Boats don't last long in that as there is no way to tie off and have it out of danger. Remove it to a safe zone if you like it. 50-100 miles away and off path.

#1 LEAVE EARLY and stay OUTSIDE of the red dot where hurricane winds are highest. Even 15 miles outside will mean a world of difference. ...Any of you in Florida who were in Andrew might remember going down KROME AVE after? At Dade Corners (Krome and US 41) almost zero damage. Some trees a tiny bit. The US-1 connection at Last Chance Saloon? Devastation. It's all a matter of being outside the redzone. Maps show this even before it makes landfall. That is the zone. Know a tornado can happen at anytime. At one point in Andrew the clouds were 20 feet above the street lights. No way to see anything coming. A tornado would sound only like a bigger gust among 100s. Be safe folks. Just some of my observations. Pro information is online at this NOAA link and other places.
Make sure you check it out if you have not. --Link


VORTEX MESSAGE

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
danny up to 996mb?? really I thought I saw one ob with 989mb well then again its not the center of the storm
Wonder when 98L will be designated.
Quoting 1705. unknowncomic:

Looks like its going to the Caymans.


right in
do a loop hit em from the north
loop again come back around from the south
track up over cuba ne over baha out to sea it goes

sound good

j/k
Quoting 1713. HurricaneAndre:

Wonder when 98L will be designated.
tonight
Quoting 1685. sar2401:

I was under the impression that intermediate advisories were only done when there was US territory or coastal waters involved. My brain is too fried from my seven day cold to find the reference now though.

That would be a real sight. Danny goes through the Gulf, into the BOC, comes out out on the other side, and gets another name. With this year, who knows?


When storms get close to US territories they may issue multiple intermediate advisories ever one or two hours, in which case they label them a,b,c etc.
Quoting 1703. Hurricanes101:

That is weird, the vortex shows surface winds of hurricane force, but the pressure they used was 996mb, maybe that should say 986?


They used a dropsonde into the "center", however at the surface that dropsonde was measuring 60kts. Think they missed the "center".
1718. Patrap
1719. sar2401
Quoting 1694. Hurricanes101:



most of the forecast models had it getting near the Bahamas only about 2-3 days after Danny
Sounds about right since Danny isn't forecasted to be between Cuba and the central Bahamas until Thursday morning.
Quoting 1716. NasBahMan:



When storms get close to US territories they may issue multiple intermediate advisories ever one or two hours, in which case they label them a,b,c etc.


They changed this year:

Beginning in 2015, NHC will maintain a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle whenever coastal
tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect or a tropical cyclone is over land at tropical
storm strength or greater. Previously, when watches or warnings were in effect and coastal
radars were able to provide reliable hourly center position estimates, NHC would issue
Public Advisories every two hours, with a Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) issued in between
each Public Advisory to provide a continuous flow of information. Switching between threehourly
and two-hourly Public Advisory issuances was sometimes confusing to users. This
change preserves the issuance of Public Advisories at standard times throughout a
watch/warning event The change, however, will not affect the hourly flow of key storm
information, as NHC will continue to issue TCUs at hourly intervals whenever the center
can be easily tracked on radar. The TCU contains all the key storm parameters, and allows
the inclusion of additional statements of interest as appropriate.


Link
Quoting 1705. unknowncomic:

Looks like its going to the Caymans.


NOO DO NOT SAY IT

you will start a ruckus that's the last thing we need more so me
Quoting 1716. NasBahMan:



When storms get close to US territories they may issue multiple intermediate advisories ever one or two hours, in which case they label them a,b,c etc.


Yep, every hour. It interchanges from a full update to just a positioning update, and if it makes landfall they update it I think.


hurricane danny winds will come down to 80 mph at 5pm
Quoting 1720. nrtiwlnvragn:



They changed this year:

Beginning in 2015, NHC will maintain a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle whenever coastal
tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect or a tropical cyclone is over land at tropical
storm strength or greater. Previously, when watches or warnings were in effect and coastal
radars were able to provide reliable hourly center position estimates, NHC would issue
Public Advisories every two hours, with a Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) issued in between
each Public Advisory to provide a continuous flow of information. Switching between threehourly
and two-hourly Public Advisory issuances was sometimes confusing to users. This
change preserves the issuance of Public Advisories at standard times throughout a
watch/warning event The change, however, will not affect the hourly flow of key storm
information, as NHC will continue to issue TCUs at hourly intervals whenever the center
can be easily tracked on radar. The TCU contains all the key storm parameters, and allows
the inclusion of additional statements of interest as appropriate.


Link


Aha, thanks. Never mind my last post then :p
1726. beell
From this morning;


From Recoon.

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
Quoting 1720. nrtiwlnvragn:



They changed this year:

Beginning in 2015, NHC will maintain a three-hourly Public Advisory cycle whenever coastal
tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect or a tropical cyclone is over land at tropical
storm strength or greater. Previously, when watches or warnings were in effect and coastal
radars were able to provide reliable hourly center position estimates, NHC would issue
Public Advisories every two hours, with a Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) issued in between
each Public Advisory to provide a continuous flow of information. Switching between threehourly
and two-hourly Public Advisory issuances was sometimes confusing to users. This
change preserves the issuance of Public Advisories at standard times throughout a
watch/warning event The change, however, will not affect the hourly flow of key storm
information, as NHC will continue to issue TCUs at hourly intervals whenever the center
can be easily tracked on radar. The TCU contains all the key storm parameters, and allows
the inclusion of additional statements of interest as appropriate.


Link



Thanks for that....will have to wait and see how and where they post the TCU's.
1728. Patrap
Quoting 1711. Starhopper:

Thanks for reposting this. I missed it in the last round. I joked with a FL blogger yesterday that if Danny's making you nervous, that's a good time to go check your hurricane supplies. It's a good use of nervous energy, plus there's a certain amount of piece of mind in knowing you are as prepared as possible - just in case. I didn't add that it's a LOT less stressful not to have to endure the craziness. One thing we did here some years ago was to cut plywood to fit our windows and make primitive "shutters" with them. The big problem for most people is finding storage space, but if you don't invest in more sophisticated hardware for your windows, this can be a long-term saving AND a stress reliever. IMO if you are already taking the step of checking in with our WUbloggers so you can stay ahead of the game, you'd prolly feel better getting ahead of the game in other ways.

Just my 2 cents.
face of danny

I don't necessarily believe it either...but I hope it comes true. The GOM waters are berlin' at this point
Quoting 1704. Grothar:



Oh, I just posted that ECMWF because it showed a recurve. I don't necessarily believe it. With a weaker system, it would well be in the Southern Bahams, but I hope a weak system.
Quoting 1714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



right in
do a loop hit em from the north
loop again come back around from the south
track up over cuba ne over baha out to sea it goes

sound good

j/k


oh very funny ha ha ha

Sarcasm Flag

Quoting 1717. nrtiwlnvragn:



They used a dropsonde into the "center", however at the surface that dropsonde was measuring 60kts. Think they missed the "center".


according to flight data they didn't miss

isn't it possible you can have lowest pressure offset to where the actual center of circulation is
another tidbit to remember for preparedness that many don't share....if you know you are in the line of taking a hit...it is a good idea to take the meat out of your freezer, cook it then refreeze....it will last longer once thawed if it is cooked than if it is raw and you will lose less food....I have the option to can the food and that gives it a year long shelf life....just something to think about.....
Nice clear day in Wilmington today. Liking my new place but it's further from the beach and closer to the airport which I'll have to get used to. Maybe I'll take up my swimming in Smiths Creek instead....lol no way.
The heat back in the Tampa Bay area is actually worse in terms of heat index combined with temps than here in Tallahassee today, even though Tallahassee usually take the cake. It's likely because the ridging is unusually strong in Central FL today, and is even more so there than here.

Tallahassee:

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39NLon: 84.35WElev: 79ft.

Mostly Cloudy

95F

35C
Humidity 51%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph
Barometer 30.00 in (1015.6 mb)
Dewpoint 74F (23C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 106F (41C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT


Tampa international:


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96NLon: 82.54WElev: 26ft.

Mostly Cloudy

93F

34C
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed W 10 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.0 mb)
Dewpoint 78F (26C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109F (43C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Clearwater:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91NLon: 82.69WElev: 3ft.

A Few Clouds

94F

34C
Humidity 58%
Wind Speed NW 9 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.2 mb)
Dewpoint 77F (25C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109F (43C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Macdill AFB in south Tampa takes the cake though with just brutal heat, would not want to be doing military training out on the hot asphalt there, yikes!


Current conditions at
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl. (KMCF)
Lat: 27.85NLon: 82.5WElev: 13ft.

Fair

96F

36C
Humidity 55%
Wind Speed Vrbl 7 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint 78F (26C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 112F (44C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:58 pm EDT
Quoting 1704. Grothar:



Oh, I just posted that ECMWF because it showed a recurve. I don't necessarily believe it. With a weaker system, it would well be in the Southern Bahams, but I hope a weak system.


It would be great if Danny made landfall in south FL as a tropical storm. South FL can handle 50-70 mph gusts like it's a breeze(pun maybe intended?), and the rain would be well needed.
Quoting 1735. Jedkins01:

The heat back in the Tampa Bay area is actually worse in terms of heat index combined with temps than here in Tallahassee today, even though Tallahassee usually take the cake. It's likely because the ridging is unusually strong in Central FL today, and is even more so there than here.

Tallahassee:

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39°NLon: 84.35°WElev: 79ft.

Mostly Cloudy

95°F

35°C
Humidity 51%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph
Barometer 30.00 in (1015.6 mb)
Dewpoint 74°F (23°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 106°F (41°C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT


Tampa international:


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.

Mostly Cloudy

93°F

34°C
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed W 10 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.0 mb)
Dewpoint 78°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109°F (43°C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Clearwater:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91°NLon: 82.69°WElev: 3ft.

A Few Clouds

94°F

34°C
Humidity 58%
Wind Speed NW 9 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.2 mb)
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109°F (43°C)
Last update 22 Aug 2:53 pm EDT


I was just outside here at the house just S.E. of Fort Myers. I've got a heat index of 110 degrees in the shade. It is hot, even by summer standards.
Quoting 1724. hurricanes2018:



hurricane danny winds will come down to 80 mph at 5pm


maybe but RECON has not hit what is traditionally the strongest part of the storm the NE Quad so they could and is most likely to find the stronger winds there

Quoting 1726. beell:

From this morning;


From Recoon.

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available


not bad I want a new updated one now
it would be helpful


18z
Not much on radar yet


Quoting 1732. wunderkidcayman:



oh very funny ha ha ha

Sarcasm Flag



according to flight data they didn't miss

isn't it possible you can have lowest pressure offset to where the actual center of circulation is


Can't remember the storm last year that was near the Bahamas that was really offset. Recon was finding quite a bit of wind at the systems "center."
Quoting 1714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



right in
do a loop hit em from the north
loop again come back around from the south
track up over cuba ne over baha out to sea it goes

sound good

j/k
Why'd u have to bring Cuba into it.... and if it does go over Cuba, why can't it go to The West Coast instead .... not fair, The Bahamas always gets it ...

[whine whine]
Quoting 1733. tiggeriffic:

another tidbit to remember for preparedness that many don't share....if you know you are in the line of taking a hit...it is a good idea to take the meat out of your freezer, cook it then refreeze....it will last longer once thawed if it is cooked than if it is raw and you will lose less food....I have the option to can the food and that gives it a year long shelf life....just something to think about.....
I hadn't thought about the canning....
Summer time often means less meat cooking anyway, with cool foods [sandwiches, salads] being more the norm. So there may be less meat on hand in the first place. The other recommendation I've seen is invest in a decent grill so post storm barbecuing can take place.
1744. nash36
Quoting 1728. Patrap:




You can clearly see Danny beginning to flatten out. Shear eating away the SWRN flank of the storm. Once it busts through to the core, assuming Danny doesn't pull off a meteorological miracle, that shear will drive the Saharan air into the guts. That should be the beginning of the end.

Caveat: IF Danny has any semblance of a closed LLC remaining once it gets through hell, anything can happen.
Quoting 1734. win1gamegiantsplease:

Nice clear day in Wilmington today. Liking my new place but it's further from the beach and closer to the airport which I'll have to get used to. Maybe I'll take up my swimming in Smiths Creek instead....lol no way.
Not with brain-eating bacteria going around ...

Geez, that would be a massive problem post hurricane.... wonder if boiling helps.
Quoting 1721. wunderkidcayman:



NOO DO NOT SAY IT

you will start a ruckus that's the last thing we need more so me
why? you wish for every storm to come your way lol.
1747. nash36
Quoting 1740. SFLWeatherman:

18z



Hmmmm... SE coast watcher, if there is anything left to watch.
School starts next week here in my county of Florida. I was kind of hoping we'd have a "hurricane day" so I would have more time to work on my lesson plans.
Just the day off - without the hurricane.
to much wind shear from hurricane danny
Quoting 1744. nash36:



You can clearly see Danny beginning to flatten out. Shear eating away the SWRN flank of the storm. Once it busts through to the core, assuming Danny doesn't pull off a meteorological miracle, that shear will drive the Saharan air into the guts. That should be the beginning of the end.

Caveat: IF Danny has any semblance of a closed LLC remaining once it gets through hell, anything can happen.
That caveat is why Bahamians are watching [waves to countrymen lurking in the background] ... we understand if Danny's circulation is still intact tomorrow about this time, all bets are off ....
1751. Patrap
1746

I do not
1753. Patrap
Quoting 1748. Sfloridacat5:

School starts next week here in my county of Florida. I was kind of hoping we'd have a "hurricane day" so I would have more time to work on my lesson plans.
Just the day off - without the hurricane.
This I so totally understand ... except I'd be blogging instead of working .... lol ...
1755. beell




(click images for MCD and current Day 1 discussions)


hurricane danny wind shear hit him hard
Quoting 1734. win1gamegiantsplease:

Nice clear day in Wilmington today. Liking my new place but it's further from the beach and closer to the airport which I'll have to get used to. Maybe I'll take up my swimming in Smiths Creek instead....lol no way.

How high is you new place above sea level.
You might find that the beach starts closing in on you in a few years.
1758. nash36
Quoting 1750. BahaHurican:

That caveat is why Bahamians are watching [waves to countrymen lurking in the background] ... we understand if Danny's circulation is still intact tomorrow about this time, all bets are off ....


Good to see you, Baha. Hope you're enjoying your weekend.

We've all seen much larger, better structured hurricanes get eaten alive under the same conditions Danny is going through....and much faster. That's why Danny is such a head-scratcher.
1759. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5 minHace 5 minutos Ver traducción
Next system in Atlantic (98L) off Africa will head west with Saharan Air Layer. Configuration similar as #Danny
1760. Grothar
Danny down to 70 kts
1761. Patrap
Note the upswing in the intensity if Danny can make the trek thru the "Great Barrier".

I hope Spock and Kirk on not onboard.

"Why does God need the HRWF" ?

Quiet,Jim!!






Quoting 1736. hurricanes2018:



Last time i will post this lol. Has little to do with Danny. Kinda of Ironic though.
Quoting 1747. nash36:



Hmmmm... SE coast watcher, if there is anything left to watch.


nah I don't buy it
but lets see
Quoting 1536. wunderkidcayman:



well supposedly that is what the case is supposedly to be



you need Google Earth link

GE flie
Link
GE plug-in
Link


From this morning.

I have Google Earth downloaded but when I click to open recon in Google Earth all I get is a generic Google Earth page to search for music etc. Not sure why that is.
1765. nash36
Quoting 1761. Patrap:

Note the upswing in the intensity if Danny can make the trek thru the "Great Barrier".

I hope Spock and Kirk on not onboard.

"Why does God need the HRWF" ?

Quiet,Jim!!









Pat-

I have to wonder if both the global and statistical models are having fits trying to figure out what will be left of Danny downstream. Not an easy forecast.
Quoting 1758. nash36:



Good to see you, Baha. Hope you're enjoying your weekend.

We've all seen much larger, better structured hurricanes get eaten alive under the same conditions Danny is going through....and much faster. That's why Danny is such a head-scratcher.
Hey, nash... I just wish this was all happening last week when I was on vacation ... this week I've had to at least pretend I'm not blogging all through work .... lol ...
I'm enjoying being able to blog guiltlessly today ...

I'm thinking part of reason we're seeing all these research flights is because they're trying to figure out Danny's secret ...
Quoting 1763. wunderkidcayman:



nah I don't buy it
but lets see
of course you don't because it's not heading for the Caymans! haha
1768. Patrap
All the data will help solute a good track to somewhere come Monday I feel.

Quoting 1764. kmanislander:



From this morning.

I have Google Earth downloaded but when I click to open recon in Google Earth all I get is a generic Google Earth page to search for music etc. Not sure why that is.


Do you have a "Places" folder on the left? That folder contains the Recon.
Quoting 1760. Grothar:

Danny down to 70 kts
what are you thinking Gro? I'm in Ft. Lauderdale too. some rain would be welcome.
Quoting 1769. nrtiwlnvragn:



Do you have a "Places" folder on the left? That folder contains the Recon.


Thanks, I will look there
Watch out for the potential for severe wind gusts with the sea breeze collision in the Tampa Bay area later, a down draft CAPE over 1000 and a surface CAPE near 5000 combined with highs in the mid 90's and a PW of 2.0-2.2 will lead to drenching thunderstorms, some being very strong with a lot of lightning:



Quoting 1768. Patrap:

All the data will help solute a good track to somewhere come Monday I feel.


Sure hope so. It's amazing with all the really good technology we have we are still this uncertain 5 days out.
1774. docrod
wide water vapour view - Danny is all alone
Link
1776. nash36
It's safe to say that the only chance Danny has to still be playing next week, is to track N of PR and DR. Anything due W will be curtains. It's one miracle to survive the combination of shear and dust. It's quite another to add mountains to that.
Quoting 1746. KitKat66:

why? you wish for every storm to come your way lol.
yes you do lol. you honestly believe the NHC is wrong. they're professionals, I listen to them and them only. you are a wishcaster, I went through Andrew and Wilma. nobody wishes this to hit them. you, just wishcast for drama.
Quoting 1769. nrtiwlnvragn:



Do you have a "Places" folder on the left? That folder contains the Recon.


Not in the places folder. What next ??
1779. Patrap
Quoting 1773. BahaHurican:

Sure hope so. It's amazing with all the really good technology we have we are still this uncertain 5 days out.


Well Aircraft have limits as do Humans so those protocols are best followed to ensure those Lives are not lost first off.

Danny has all the tools of the trade on His butt 24/7 as we can do G 4 sniffs, sonde drops from the Penetration fights, will all help that downstream solution come into focus.

The root genesis being a vigorous CV spinner, that alone warrants all we have today.

Watch those end line spreads begin to cluster out in time even.






Quoting 1777. KitKat66:

yes you do lol. you honestly believe the NHC is wrong. they're professionals, I listen to them and them only. you are a wishcaster, I went through Andrew and Wilma. nobody wishes this to hit them. you, just wishcast for drama.
I wouldn't mind another Wilma or Andrew, maybe throw in a Donna too.
Quoting 1760. Grothar:

Danny down to 70 kts


Pressure of 990mb too:

04L DANNY 150822 1800 15.7N 52.7W ATL 70 990

Looks like Danny will be a tropical storm come tomorrow morning.
Quoting 1778. kmanislander:



Not in the places folder. What next ??


Ummmm, try clearing your browser? Maybe uninstall Google Earth and then re install?
Quoting 1782. nrtiwlnvragn:



Ummmm, try clearing your browser? Maybe uninstall Google Earth and then re install?


Ok thanks.
1784. Patrap
For tomorrow

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 221627
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 22 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DANNY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/2000Z A. 23/2330Z
B. NOAA3 0504A DANNY B. AFXXX 0604A DANNY
C. 23/1800Z C. 23/2130Z
D. 16.4N 57.7 D. 16.6N 58.7W
E. 23/1930Z TO 23/2300Z E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
A. 24/0800Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA3 0704A DANNY B. AFXXX 0804A DANNY
C. 24/0600Z C. 24/1020Z
D. 16.9N 60.0W D. 17.2N 61.3
E. 24/0730Z TO 24/1000Z E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: NOAA'S G-IV WILL DO A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
DANNY AT 23/1530Z.
NASA'S DC-8 WILL DEPART KFLL 23/1100Z FOR A 6 HR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND DANNY. FLIGHT LEVEL 35,000FT. NO DROPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0403C KILO B. AFXXX 0503C KILO
C. 23/1445ZZ C. 24/0230Z
D. 16.0N 164.0W D. 17.0N 165.0W
E. 23/1600 TO 23/1900Z E. 24/0400 TO 24/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

$$
JWP

1785. nash36
Quoting 1777. KitKat66:

yes you do lol. you honestly believe the NHC is wrong. they're professionals, I listen to them and them only. you are a wishcaster, I went through Andrew and Wilma. nobody wishes this to hit them. you, just wishcast for drama.


I was once that way, many years ago. I had moved to Tampa from Dallas in 2003. I was land-locked my entire life. I used to "wishcast" any and every blob to come directly to Tampa, so I could experience that adrenaline rush. When Hurricane Charley was approaching, I was stoked!!! Early that morning, when our local mets started screaming "Charley is making a hard right hook", I was pissed. Once I saw what Charley did to Punta Gorda, it drove home for me how devastating these storms are.

Add Frances and Jeanne (which I DID go through), and I have had my fill of destruction.
1786. MahFL
Quoting 1646. unknowncomic:

This is encouraging for FL, but Bahamas would be affected.



SE FL could do with a tropical storm, they are in Extreme Drought.
I can see why models weakened danny now, that shear is just tearing him apart..fun while it lasted though, learned a lot of his journey about tropics.
Quoting 1759. JRRP:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5 minHace 5 minutos Ver traducción
Next system in Atlantic (98L) off Africa will head west with Saharan Air Layer. Configuration similar as #Danny


Looks like we have a new invest.
Quoting 1787. TeleConnectSnow:

I can see why models weakened danny now, that shear is just tearing him apart..fun while it lasted though, learned a lot of his journey about tropics.


Do not make the mistake of counting Danny out. Despite the appearance, recon still found a hurricane
Miss Piggy made its pass through the center of danny
comparing NOAAs recon fix and USAFR recon fix Danny is moving W

1792. beell
Quoting 1778. kmanislander:



Not in the places folder. What next ??


Did you try directly opening the .kmz file that you downloaded from tropical atlantic? If not, it should open GE and the recon information should be in "Places".
Quoting 1786. MahFL:



SE FL could do with a tropical storm, they are in Extreme Drought.
look like its going to be a fish storm to
Quoting 1785. nash36:



I was once that way, many years ago. I had moved to Tampa from Dallas in 2003. I was land-locked my entire life. I used to "wishcast" any and every blob to come directly to Tampa, so I could experience that adrenaline rush. When Hurricane Charley was approaching, I was stoked!!! Early that morning, when our local mets started screaming "Charley is making a hard right hook", I was pissed. Once I saw what Charley did to Punta Gorda, it drove home for me how devastating these storms are.

Add Frances and Jeanne (which I DID go through), and I have had my fill of destruction.


I was in Cape Coral for Charley. I stayed up all night tracking Charley as the system came off Cuba headed for S.W. Florida. That next morning I was telling everyone that would listen to me that Charley was heading right for the area. Local news started going against the NHC official track that morning too.
By late afternoon the roof had blown off our business and everything in the office area was ruined. It took months to get everything repaired.
Local fire department reported a gust of 148 mph. Some say a small tornado went through the area, but there was no confirmation. The winds appeared to be straight lined winds from what I could tell (even though we were in pure white out/wind screaming conditions for about 30 minutes to 1 hour.
Oh, my personal weather station's anemometer blew off the roof while still attached to a concrete tile when the winds hit about 90 mph.
1797. MahFL
It's raining in PR :

Quoting 1794. Patrap:

There is NO 98L yet .

By that tweet we do, they just need to update the stuff.
Quoting 1787. TeleConnectSnow:

I can see why models weakened danny now, that shear is just tearing him apart..fun while it lasted though, learned a lot of his journey about tropics.
by sunday night no more danny
1801. Patrap
Quoting 1798. HurricaneAndre:

By that tweet we do, they just need to update the stuff.


Er, No,,as He said the "next system"..as 98 does follow 97.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5 minHace 5 minutos Ver traducción
Next system in Atlantic (98L) off Africa will head west with Saharan Air Layer. Configuration similar as #Danny



1802. Patrap
May be premature, but this time I think no necessity to put green points all the way to near PR nor the V. islands. I think this time the cyclone Danny will die with honor.
what is all that fuss 98L will come at 8pm..
Quoting 1799. hurricanes2018:

by sunday night no more danny


Weren't you one of the ones the other night saying it would be dead by now? Haha, na this time you may be right. BUT, I wouldn't count Danny out just yet.
Quoting 1757. PlazaRed:


How high is you new place above sea level.
You might find that the beach starts closing in on you in a few years.


Not sure, but they have extended Wrightsville Beach several yards out starting a couple years ago.
Quoting 1803. juracanpr1:

May be premature, but this time I think no necessity to put green points all the way to near PR nor the V. islands. I think this time the cyclone Danny will die with honor.
Not so fast! At the end of the three days, if the storm is gone and it's unlikely to regenerate, that's when you take down the green points.

Right now only the Leewards are on watch, anyway.
Well that Ryan guy should of put pre98L. So we won't be jumping the gun ok.
Quoting 1745. BahaHurican:

Not with brain-eating bacteria going around ...

Geez, that would be a massive problem post hurricane.... wonder if boiling helps.


It runs by the airport so who knows what microorganisms are in that water, but the main reason not to swim is because it is rampant with alligators. But pre-hurricane water will not be an issue for me, I've always got a plan.
1810. LargoFl
1811. Patrap
We dont get Atlantic INVEST declared from the Guy at Weatherbell.

And anyone who use's, "Pre" anything in the Topics is not worthy of my ears nor eyes.

We have a NHC for a reason.

1812. LargoFl
Quoting 1801. Patrap:



Er, No,,as He said the "next system"..as 98 does follow 97.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5 minHace 5 minutos Ver traducción
Next system in Atlantic (98L) off Africa will head west with Saharan Air Layer. Configuration similar as #Danny






Indeed, but this prospective system will likely be larger than Danny was, thus it may not struggle as much in the position that Danny is currently in. 12z ECMWF was interesting to look at, for certain. Recurving hurricane near Bermuda at 10 days.
1814. K8eCane
hey everybody. Just checking in and see Danny is still a cane, hopefully out to sea. Im on the couch today sick sick sick with kidney stone
Florida shields are up!
Quoting 1786. MahFL:



SE FL could do with a tropical storm, they are in Extreme Drought.
1816. Patrap
1817. K8eCane
hey everybody. Just checking in and see Danny is still a cane, hopefully out to sea. Im on the couch today sick sick sick with kidney stone
Quoting 1790. jlp09550:




That wave is like a dreidel
Looking at the cone it projects to have Danny as a Depression by day 5....and sitting just west of Longitude 75. Whatever it is at that point (because intensity forecast are still way behind directional forecast) will be subject to the John Hope Rule! Anything west of Long 75 is unlikely to curve out to see.....which could put Florida up to the Carolinas in peril
1820. Drakoen
Quoting 1811. Patrap:

We dont get Atlantic INVEST declared from the Guy at Weatherbell.

And anyone who use's, "Pre" anything in the Topics is not worthy of my ears nor eyes.

We have a NHC for a reason.




This. I'm not sure why it matters whether we have 98L or not, or even why there's fuss about it. The system will do what it pleases regardless of a designation.
1821. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.



Quoting 1792. beell:



Did you try directly opening the .kmz file that you downloaded from tropical atlantic? If not, it should open GE and the recon information should be in "Places".


I uninstalled Google Earth and reinstalled it but still nothing. Not sure what to do now. When I open the file I downloaded from TA all I get is a generic page with various options like music etc. Weird.
1823. Patrap
Quoting 1820. Drakoen:



This. I'm not sure why it matters whether we have 98L or not, or even why there's fuss about it. The system will do what it pleases regardless of a designation.


Yup'

I like "steppin in the brine", or "dis is Mambo Number 98'
In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:


What are your thoughts Pat on Danny being dead in the next couple days? And as a possible threat to Florida in the near future? Thanks!
0
Quoting 1814. K8eCane:

hey everybody. Just checking in and see Danny is still a cane, hopefully out to sea. Im on the couch today sick sick sick with kidney stone
Oh, painful.... I hope you get some relief from it soon ...
1827. Patrap
next USAFR recon pass caught LLCOC and it confirms what NOAA's pass shows danny LLCOC moving W or atleast wobbling W need a few more passes to confirm
1829. beell
Quoting 1822. kmanislander:



I uninstalled Google Earth and reinstalled it but still nothing. Not sure what to do now. When I open the file I downloaded from TA all I get is a generic page with various options like music etc. Weird.


Oh, well. Always value your obs, input, and insight, kman. The WU community needs you to have all the data you can get!

All I can come up with is to right-click on the .kmz file and select "Open With", and check that it will use GE.

Hope you get it solved.


1830. Patrap
Quoting 1825. RavensFan:

What are your thoughts Pat on Danny being dead in the next couple days? And as a possible threat to Florida in the near future? Thanks!


Dead?

Well I must of missed the obit as we have a CV Spinner, a Cane westbound in Late August.

What could possibly happen?

I'm not a met so I never forecast anything, Im more a color analyst I believe.

Thats what the voices in me BHG always remind me.

: )

Quoting 1829. beell:



Oh, well. Always value your obs, input, and insight, kman. The WU community needs you to have all the data you can get!

All I can come up with is to right-click on the .kmz file and select "Open With", and check that it will use GE.

Hope you get it solved.





Thanks. I had it working before but this is a new desk top.
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:




Yes, I observe that also. For this reason Danny must die in a short term. I consider this cyclone will be nothing more than a pair of clouds before reaching PR
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:





I was about mention it but I also thought it could be a upper or mid level clouds swirl but could lets see
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:



That took nearly 24 hours... amazing in a storm this tiny. I remember Chris - went from 60 to 0 in an advisory .... [okay that was slightly hyperbolic ... lol ...]

Chris 2006
There's a video you want to see on that page ....
Quoting 1830. Patrap:



Dead?

Well I must of missed the obit as we have a CV Spinner, a Cane westbound in Late August.

What could possibly happen?

I'm not a met so I never forecast anything, Im more a color analyst I believe.

Thats what the voices in me BHG always remind me.

: )



HAHA smart man and that's my thinking as well!!! Thanks as always Pat!!!
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:



Yeah I think it is... Also, if you look closely you can see a ring of outflows pulse outward from the center about halfway through the loop like throwing a stone into water. Those thunderstorms are collapsing and pressure probably rose significantly. Danny just super nova'd
1838. beell
Quoting 1820. Drakoen:



This. I'm not sure why it matters whether we have 98L or not, or even why there's fuss about it. The system will do what it pleases regardless of a designation.


But we get models and floaters-ad nauseum with designation. The blog would grind to a halt without models and floaters.
;)
1839. LargoFl
1840. will45
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:






recon still finding west winds so not exposed just yet
1841. Patrap
Danny 's kilt has been blown asunder seems..




NOAA's VORTEX MESSAGE shows pressure up 998mb
Quoting 1840. will45:




recon still finding west winds so not exposed just yet
West winds doesn't mean it isn't an exposed llc. Just means it's still a closed low :o
1844. LargoFl
Danny tryna book it to PR where he probably smells the warm waters and the low wind shear.
Wantin to get there so bad, hes leaving his convection behind. :P

Also, this still exists guys..

Danny's COC is exposed ;) quick, hide the kids.
Quoting 1840. will45:




recon still finding west winds so not exposed just yet


what's that supposed to mean you can have a closed circulation when its exposed
Actually this seems better

It's 99 at Tampa Vandenburg airport, yikes:



Current conditions at
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport (KVDF)
Lat: 28.02°NLon: 82.34°WElev: 16ft.

Partly Cloudy

99°F

37°C
Humidity 44%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 29.94 in
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility NA
Heat Index 110°F (43°C)
Last update 22 Aug 4:35 pm EDT
Quoting 1848. JrWeathermanFL:

Actually this seems better


Meanwhile in Bermuda... beatiful cloudless day lol
Quoting 1824. Envoirment:

In the last frame you can see what I think is Danny's low level circulation becoming exposed:





The great decoupling has begun.
Quoting 1822. kmanislander:



I uninstalled Google Earth and reinstalled it but still nothing. Not sure what to do now. When I open the file I downloaded from TA all I get is a generic page with various options like music etc. Weird.


Have you downloaded the GE Plugin from Tropical Atlantic?
Quoting 1841. Patrap:

Danny 's kilt has been blown asunder seems..





good! nobody wants this, especially South Florida or New Orleans.
Quoting 1832. juracanpr1:


Yes, I observe that also. For this reason Danny must die in a short term. I consider this cyclone will be nothing more than a pair of clouds before reaching PR
No clouds at all
At this moment it is irrelevant the future trajectory of this sick cyclone. The system is so weakened that the inherent risk is a minimum.
Quoting 1832. juracanpr1:


Yes, I observe that also. For this reason Danny must die in a short term. I consider this cyclone will be nothing more than a pair of clouds before reaching PR


Even though he's being sheared, he'll continue to fire off convection to try to cover up. I expect he'll remain quite vigorous at the low levels for a couple days still. He should pick up speed and go over warmer waters tonight which should help with convection, although it'll continue to be sheared off.
Quoting 1849. Jedkins01:

It's 99 at Tampa Vandenburg airport, yikes:



Current conditions at
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport (KVDF)
Lat: 28.02°NLon: 82.34°WElev: 16ft.

Partly Cloudy

99°F

37°C
Humidity 44%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 29.94 in
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility NA
Heat Index 110°F (43°C)
Last update 22 Aug 4:35 pm EDT
WHOA. I got 95 at my place thanks to the minimal SB
Quoting 1847. wunderkidcayman:



what's that supposed to mean you can have a closed circulation when its exposed


Of course you can. Thunderstorms torn off, mid level center de-coupled and you have a closed surface circulation...........I think......I think.......someone smart will correct me I'm sure if I am incorrect.
Quoting 1855. juracanpr1:

At this moment it is irrelevant the future trajectory of this sick cyclone. The system is so weakened that the inherent risk is a minimum.
What did lil Danny ever do to you?!
1860. Prouss
meanwhile...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2015/08/21/forecast-models-are-now-call ing-for-this-el-nino-to-be-the-strongest-on-record /
Link

By Angela Fritz
Quoting 1857. FLWeatherFreak91:

WHOA. I got 95 at my place thanks to the minimal SB


Yeah the the Tampa Bay area has actually been beating Tallahassee for heat which is surprising, thanks to the core of the upper ridging being over Central FL. Oddly enough though, despite that, suppression of convection has been stronger here than in Central FL. Rain chance forecast is too high here at 50% and the Tampa Bay area at 20-30% is too low.
Quoting 1855. juracanpr1:

At this moment it is irrelevant the future trajectory of this sick cyclone. The system is so weakened that the inherent risk is a minimum.


Once again, do not count this system out.
Quoting 1855. juracanpr1:

At this moment it is irrelevant the future trajectory of this sick cyclone. The system is so weakened that the inherent risk is a minimum.


No definites!!! You can't say for sure, especially with this storm. You have to remember that people come on here and read these comments like we are experts. So please remember that people can take your word for it and if it's wrong, well...
Also to note that the strip of higher shear ahead of Danny/affecting him right now (in the region of 25-30kts over him now and some 30-35kts ahead of him still) has continued to become smaller and weaker as the day's gone on. So perhaps Danny might not have to traverse such high shear for as long as expected.
Say bye bye to Danny. Now your eyes to the next one close to Africa.
So the storm everyone is calling pre 98L is moving 25mph....

Better slow down....I ain't watchin another Chantal...
I think that the true story is that there is still something to watch -- unless the circulation dies, there are options for this system.
west movement pretty evident here

Quoting 1818. win1gamegiantsplease:



That wave is like a dreidel


1869. Melagoo




... anticipating the future action off Africa ...
Quoting 1866. JrWeathermanFL:

So the storm everyone is calling pre 98L is moving 25mph....

Better slow down....I ain't watchin another Chantal...


Chantal and her record breaking 31.4mph average over a 24 hour period. :) I don't think we it'll go quite that fast lol.
Quoting 1866. JrWeathermanFL:

So the storm everyone is calling pre 98L is moving 25mph....

Better slow down....I ain't watchin another Chantal...
Want's to be with her brother Danny before he dies.
Quoting 1851. CybrTeddy:



The great decoupling has begun.
Well poor Danny's COC is now exposed in the last two frames, RIP Danny...
Quoting 1866. JrWeathermanFL:

So the storm everyone is calling pre 98L is moving 25mph....

Better slow down....I ain't watchin another Chantal...


That was a vigorous spinner too...actually it's remnants made landfall on Bald Head Island. TWC had the loop a while ago, I'll try to find it.
Quoting 1866. JrWeathermanFL:

So the storm everyone is calling pre 98L is moving 25mph....

Better slow down....I ain't watchin another Chantal...


That'll make for a quick trip across the pond, I believe that is twice is fast as Danny was moving.
Quoting 1641. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone on here saw me blogging at 3 this morning. Did you see my "beware 98L" entry. Looks like a low rider initially. That was the one I called Blobus Perhapsus last week.

I don't know if any of you have seen this, but I think I shall name it "Blobus Lookoutus"





I saw you Grother, in fact I think I pulsed one of your comments between coffee and computer news cover up stories.
I thought that you might be in Europe having breakfast, relaxing and contemplating the next wave to Blob On about.
Meanwhile I am sometimes on here at 3am which is 9pm in the eastern seaboard.

By the time this Danny fizzles out, it will probably been one of the longest watched hurricanes ever and more or less certainly the one which attracted most comments due to nothing else going on in the Front Yard of the Americas.
Quoting 1869. Melagoo:





... anticipating the future action off Africa ...
This blog is gonna be happy for coming weeks.
Quoting 1857. FLWeatherFreak91:

WHOA. I got 95 at my place thanks to the minimal SB


Yep, 94 degree with 60% humidity here. It's actually painful (for me) to be outside more than just a few minutes.
yup, i live right next to the carraizo reservoir so yeah. dunno if it's related to the cloud seeding, as everything was so dry and lacking of convection around these parts. maybe it had to do with that weak trop. wave before danny that kind of went off the map and was expected during the weekend.

Quoting 1797. MahFL:

It's raining in PR :


Danny, RIP (ragged in parts)
1880. will45
new track shifted north a bit
5pm forecast track moves North again
No land interaction forecast now, let's all hope shear and dry air get him
where did NHC get 15.8N 53.3W moving WNW Intensity 75MPH 991mb
latest recon vortex message shows at best 15.7167N 53.0667W and based on the other recon passes movement is W intensity is within reason and pressure was 999mb

1886. Patrap
Quoting 1881. nrtiwlnvragn:


Well, Danny is 99% likely to completely be sheared off in the next 24 hrs. But with that track Florida should still watch Danny to see if it re- Strengthens
1888. Patrap
5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 15.8°N 53.3°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Quoting 1863. RavensFan:



No definites!!! You can't say for sure, especially with this storm. You have to remember that people come on here and read these comments like we are experts. So please remember that people can take your word for it and if it's wrong, well...

if someone makes personal and property safety decisions based on comments on a blog...they deserve whatever they get...
Quoting 1887. Camerooski:

Well, Danny is 99% likely to completely be sheared off in the next 24 hrs. But with that track Florida should still watch Danny to see if it re- Strengthens


Exactly. Just because it dies once doesn't mean it won't reform. Don't have to remind people in Miami of that fact...
1891. Grothar
Quoting 1811. Patrap:

We dont get Atlantic INVEST declared from the Guy at Weatherbell.

And anyone who use's, "Pre" anything in the Topics is not worthy of my ears nor eyes.

We have a NHC for a reason.




You should make that your preamble when you make your posts. :)
img src="">
We've had systems intensify and hold intesity at the level of shear that Danny is currently facing (Fay of last year intensified despite 35kts of windshear). But Danny will likely have dry air mixed into the system from the southwest. The good thing is that it's facing southwesterly shear - which'll feed in dry, but not overly dry air into the system. If it was facing northerly shear, it would likely get choked to death by the very dry air/stable just to the north:



Just trying to think of the positives Danny has going for it, hopefully he'll continue to be a fighter and deliver the islands a good amount of rain.
Quoting 1845. JrWeathermanFL:

Danny tryna book it to PR where he probably smells the warm waters and the low wind shear.
Wantin to get there so bad, hes leaving his convection behind. :P

Also, this still exists guys..


Quoting 1870. Envoirment:



Chantal and her record breaking 31.4mph average over a 24 hour period. :) I don't think we it'll go quite that fast lol.
Wasn't it Chantal that also had the 7 different possible CoCs while passing through the Bahamas?
Danny should certainly still be monitored, but it's a good thing the conditions are not favorable. Otherwise this could have become a very dangerous storm for the islands.
1896. Patrap
Quoting 1891. Grothar:



You should make that your preamble when you make your posts. :)


I use a Marshal pre-amp for most post.

: P
Quoting 1885. wunderkidcayman:

where did NHC get 15.8N 53.3W moving WNW Intensity 75MPH 991mb
latest recon vortex message shows at best 15.7167N 53.0667W and based on the other recon passes movement is W intensity is within reason and pressure was 999mb


here we go, questioning the professionals yet again lol
Finally and official from NHC, Danny (or his remnants) will pass well NE of Puerto Rico. Now put attention to the other two TW far to the east. One of these (or both) will be more interesting to follow, for sure
Quoting 1898. juracanpr1:

Finally and official from NHC, Danny (or his remnants) will pass well NE of Puerto Rico. Now put attention to the other two TW far to the east. One of these (or both) will be more interesting to follow, for sure


ok, see you in a few days then right? :P
Quoting 1889. presslord:


if someone makes personal and property safety decisions based on comments on a blog...they deserve whatever they get...


Typical response. It doesn't matter because they do. 7 years ago I did. For someone who knows nothing about weather, they can't verify what you say. There is nothing that tells them not to and you shouldn't speak in any definites unless you have the degree to back it up.
1901. Patrap
...rut-roh'
Quoting 1900. RavensFan:



Typical response. It doesn't matter because they do. 7 years ago I did. For someone who knows nothing about weather, they can't verify what you say. There is nothing that tells them not to and you shouldn't speak in any definites unless you have the degree to back it up.


Common sense tells them not to
And I know they shouldn't, we all do... But that doesn't mean they won't. People make dumb decisions when panicked ya know...
1904. Patrap
Quoting 1872. Camerooski:

Well poor Danny's COC is now exposed in the last two frames, RIP Danny...


I had to work today and people were talking about the hurricane that was "forming" in the Atlantic Ocean that could affect Florida next week.

By the time the general public got word of a major hurricane in the Atlantic, Danny was already coming unglued.
1906. Patrap
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Danny is expected to
be near the Leeward Islands by Sunday night or Monday morning.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to be at tropical
storm strength when it reaches the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated from NOAA aircraft
data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 1894. BahaHurican:

Wasn't it Chantal that also had the 7 different possible CoCs while passing through the Bahamas?


No, she dissipated in the eastern Caribbean after constant day/night cycles of naked swirl/intense convection. Her forward speed eventually got to her.

Maybe you're thinking of the remnants of Dorian? He regenerated into a tropical depression in the northern Bahamas.
Puerto Rico, be patient, but no rain for you for the coming days if you expected it from Danny (today was good in terms of rain for the west and central parts of the island). May be one of the two invests to the East would supply you the needed rain, at the expense of some winds.
Quoting 1902. Hurricanes101:



Common sense tells them not to


I wouldn't go as far to say that everyone now a days has any ounce of common respect... HAHA but you'd hope they would!
The National Hurricane Center has been known, from time to time, to be a reliable source of information . . .every now and then...even more so than comments on a blog...
Very interesting "Wording" on the 5 pm update! "The dynamical models forecast an upper-level low to form near central Cuba. However, they do not agree on how this will change the shear." I say this because sometimes when an ULL is far enough away from a tropical system...it acts to "Ventilate" with the winds of the ULL going counter-clockwise.....causing the winds to the east of the ULL to go in a clockwise direction. And creating an anti-cyclone. Time shall tell how this ULL will work in favor! Or detrement to Danny.
Quoting 1910. presslord:

The National Hurricane Center has been known, from time to time, to be a reliable source of information . . .every now and then...even more so than comments on a blog...


*faints due to shock*
1913. Grothar
Quoting 1875. PlazaRed:


I saw you Grother, in fact I think I pulsed one of your comments between coffee and computer news cover up stories.
I thought that you might be in Europe having breakfast, relaxing and contemplating the next wave to Blob On about.
Meanwhile I am sometimes on here at 3am which is 9pm in the eastern seaboard.

By the time this Danny fizzles out, it will probably been one of the longest watched hurricanes ever and more or less certainly the one which attracted most comments due to nothing else going on in the Front Yard of the Americas.


Still here in frigid Florida. We did make a short trip to Austria a few weeks back which was I wasn't on for a few weeks.

Watching those waves from here.
Danny:



Yesterday i mocked the GFS for being a southern outlier hitting Hispaniola and going poof! At 5pm the GFS solution has its ending in Port St. Lucie area where I live, That's revenge.

Anyhow At this time it's many days away from CONUS so that is not my concern.
I hope all goes well for the Leewards and PR; may you get your plentiful rainfall.
1916. Patrap
This is the part we're everyone turns there back on Danny.
Quoting 1917. washingtonian115:

This is the part we're everyone turns there back on Danny.


yup, happens all the time
1919. Patrap


Uh.... can I mention that this current forecast track map sucks eggs??? Well, I've been living in hope, and I hastily add, I still am, BUT I think this is a good afternoon to update my blog for the first time in some years .... from this

BahaHurican's WunderBlog of 2013 Storms that Impact the Bahamas

to this:

BahaHurican's WunderBlog of 2015 Storms that Impact the Bahamas ....

[sigh]
Quoting 1910. presslord:

The National Hurricane Center has been known, from time to time, to be a reliable source of information . . .every now and then...even more so than comments on a blog...


It was nothing aimed at anyone specific. I've been a lurker for so long I don't remember when I started watching the blog. But over the years there have been people on here that state their opinion as fact, but they don't have a degree in meteorology... It's fun to speculate about things but you can't say for sure one way or the other. You can say that's my thinking, but you can't state it as a fact unless you are quoting the NHC obviously lol. It is less hostile now a days than in the past which is nice. The comment was less about people trusting our opinions and more about how entitled people can get on here. You can't state with 100% certainty that anything will happen. Let the experts speak in definites, they are paid to do it! I'm stepping off my pedestal and back into the shadows. And please, no one take this as an attack, it isn't. And that's a fact :)
there has been time when NHC was wrong about a storm its not like its unheard of
Quoting 1917. washingtonian115:

This is the part we're everyone turns there back on Danny.
This applies only to people who are not in the cone ....

:o)
Quoting 1922. wunderkidcayman:

there has been time when NHC was wrong about a storm its not like its unheard of



Post season reviews? Ya those things never find mistakes haha
Quoting 1923. BahaHurican:

This applies only to people who are not in the cone ....

:o)


If you extended the cone for another 2 days, I would be in it lol
Quoting 1917. washingtonian115:

This is the part we're everyone turns there back on Danny.


It's called the normalcy bias. It is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects.
naked swirl time
heading W of convection

Quoting 1914. Envoirment:

Danny:




Danny's LLCOC becoming more visible and naked it clearly see now moving due W
Quoting 1907. Envoirment:



No, she dissipated in the eastern Caribbean after constant day/night cycles of naked swirl/intense convection. Her forward speed eventually got to her.

Maybe you're thinking of the remnants of Dorian? He regenerated into a tropical depression in the northern Bahamas.
No, this was a storm with a female name.... slugged through the ECar and over the DR as a TS .... made a mess and IIRC finally got to HU status after passing Grand Bahama ...
We should see a new blog soon, yes?
1931. MahFL
Well a hot tower erupted in Danny :

Once the center is exposed, rarely is there any going back. Probably won't survive the duration of the 5 day forecast, and it wouldn't shock me if he doesn't survive through day 3.

1933. nash36
Quoting 1922. wunderkidcayman:

there has been time when NHC was wrong about a storm its not like its unheard of



Pretty sure they have a good handle on this. They're professionals. Besides....at this rate, there won't be a Danny to track in three days anyhow.
Quoting 1924. RavensFan:



Post season reviews? Ya those things never find mistakes haha


yeah but its post-season

1935. nash36
Quoting 1932. MAweatherboy1:

Once the center is exposed, rarely is there any going back. Probably won't survive the duration of the 5 day forecast, and it wouldn't shock me if he doesn't survive through day 3.




Bingo.
1936. nash36
Quoting 1928. wunderkidcayman:

Danny's LLCOC becoming more visible and naked it clearly see now moving due W


WNW. Has been all day.
1938. JRRP
west

Quoting 1921. RavensFan:



It was nothing aimed at anyone specific. I've been a lurker for so long I don't remember when I started watching the blog. But over the years there have been people on here that state their opinion as fact, but they don't have a degree in meteorology... It's fun to speculate about things but you can't say for sure one way or the other. You can say that's my thinking, but you can't state it as a fact unless you are quoting the NHC obviously lol. It is less hostile now a days than in the past which is nice. The comment was less about people trusting our opinions and more about how entitled people can get on here. You can't state with 100% certainty that anything will happen. Let the experts speak in definites, they are paid to do it! I'm stepping off my pedestal and back into the shadows. And please, no one take this as an attack, it isn't. And that's a fact :)

and the irony is..the professionals almost NEVER speak in absolutes....
latest from RECON new VORTEX message

15.7N 53.2333W
1000MB

Danny moving W
max sfc wind 59MPH
Quoting 1922. wunderkidcayman:

there has been time when NHC was wrong about a storm its not like its unheard of

only in your mind if it's not heading toward the Caymans.
Quoting 1926. frank727:



It's called the normalcy bias. It is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects.
Except for the paranoid ones, who may go too far in the other direction ...
In all fairness looking at the 2 fixes of the center of Danny, Danny has moved due west the 2nd fix showing a hair tad south of due west.
Quoting 1928. wunderkidcayman:

Danny's LLCOC becoming more visible and naked it clearly see now moving due W
but it's still not coming your way!! lol stop with the s sw movement already.
Quoting 1939. presslord:


and the irony is..the professionals almost NEVER speak in absolutes....
They know enough to understand that 1) speaking in absolutes is rarely possible in wx forecasting and 2) CYA, or always leave the possibility of an alternative open in order to avoid lawsuits...
i would even go so far as to say WSW.... (jogcast)

Quoting 1938. JRRP:

west



Quoting 1938. JRRP:

west




yep
Quoting 1943. stormpetrol:

In all fairness looking at the 2 fixes of the center of Danny, Danny has moved due west the 2nd fix showing a hair tad south of due west.

yep
Quoting 1930. BahaHurican:

We should see a new blog soon, yes?
one would hope. can't take certain bloggers wishes it's heading to the Caymans much more. BTW, I'm in Ft. Lauderdale. ugh
Quoting 1931. MahFL:

Well a hot tower erupted in Danny :


Must be getting dark out there .... lol ...

I think we prolly have another day left of the Danny show.
Quoting 1942. BahaHurican:

Except for the paranoid ones, who may go too far in the other direction ...


Like the hundreds of thousands of people who evacuate their area when Emergency Management wants them to stay home. I knew someone that evacuated her home during Hurricane Charley and her home is 15 miles inland and sits at 26 feet above sea level. She drove north and Charley ended up passing right over her hotel in central Florida.
1952. Patrap
If this is the much heralded west turn happening now, the Leewards may get some good rain and even the eastern portion of PR may get lucky. I know an inch won't end the drought, but it would at least put a little moisture on the land ...
Well as Danny boy will be taking his last few gasps probably tonight or in the morning heading into all that wind shear and dust, he was something to watch anyways. He never really had a real chance to survive all the obstacles in his way ultimately but here's to the next one. What's inline next??
Quoting 1951. Sfloridacat5:



Like the hundreds of thousands of people who evacuate their area when Emergency Management wants them to stay home. I knew someone that evacuated her home during Hurricane Charley and her home is 15 miles inland and sits at 26 feet above sea level. She drove north and Charley ended up passing right over her hotel in central Florida.

Meanwhile people living 26 inches above sea level stay at home with their 3 kids and 5 pets.

People.
Quoting 1948. wunderkidcayman:


yep


Sorry I would post the Recon fixes but since I upgraded to Windows10 I can't
This is my last statement about Danny: Danny will go NE (from official trajectory at 5:00 PM, East, August 22, 2015) of PR. Hence, good luck for the other islands. I expect those islands take advantage of the needed rain. Puerto Rico will not get any rain from Danny or his remnants. The only forecast days in advance I proved to be partially correct is this turn to the NE of PR (I considered previously a higher more pronounced northeast turn).
Quoting 1945. BahaHurican:

They know enough to understand that 1) speaking in absolutes is rarely possible in wx forecasting and 2) CYA, or always leave the possibility of an alternative open in order to avoid lawsuits...

I would expect they wouldn't given all the variables in forecasting. If they don't, I don't.
1959. Patrap
Quoting 1951. Sfloridacat5:



Like the hundreds of thousands of people who evacuate their area when Emergency Management wants them to stay home. I knew someone that evacuated her home during Hurricane Charley and her home is 15 miles inland and sits at 26 feet above sea level. She drove north and Charley ended up passing right over her hotel in central Florida.

26 feet is about as good as it gets height-wise in south FL ... Here if you can get that high up you can be a storm shelter, iirc .... though over 30 feet is considered better.
Quoting 1939. presslord:


and the irony is..the professionals almost NEVER speak in absolutes....


UGH... of course they don't because they are smart. ALL that I meant was don't speak in definites, it's annoying but there is always the "ignore user" button.
Now time to watch what will be Erika
WKC, you seem like a really good Blogger, and not to take this personal. But what is it with all the WESTWARD MOVEMENT! The Hurricane Center has been saying WNW for god knows how long! Just go with flow bro!
Quoting 1940. wunderkidcayman:

latest from RECON new VORTEX message

15.7N 53.2333W
1000MB

Danny moving W
max sfc wind 59MPH
"Danny" may be moving west, but what are we really tracking here? All the center fixes indicate is where the remaining low cloud swirl is. What's left of the convection continues NW or even N due to the shear, and should continue to weaken and dissipate. Very quickly, Danny will struggle to meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone.

In the West Pac, Goni has been reorganizing this afternoon after struggling for a variety of reasons in the past few days, his appearance has changed greatly in the past several hours. Could be a serious threat for southern Japan and Korea. Further northeast, Atsani is slowly unraveling and not a threat to land.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just clocked a 40 mph gust at work, blew the doors open lol. Typical Tampa Summer afternoon here
Quoting 1957. juracanpr1:

This is my last statement about Danny: Danny will go NE (from official trajectory at 5:00 PM, East, August 22, 2015) of PR. Hence, good luck for the other islands. I expect those islands take advantage of the needed rain. Puerto Rico will not get any rain from Danny or his remnants. The only forecast days in advance I proved to be partially correct is this turn to the NE of PR (I considered previously a higher more pronounced northeast turn). Now I put my attention in the other invests very far to my east.
1969. Grothar
1970. MahFL
Interesting, a couple of hot towers were able to form way WNW of Danny's center, could be actual less shear there ?



Quoting 1956. stormpetrol:



Sorry I would post the Recon fixes but since I upgraded to Windows10 I can't

This windows 10 is a weird thing to say the least.
I have only dared to install it on a little used computer, which now seems to be virtually useless. Fortunately I discovered a way to install windows Internet Explorer 11 on it , so the pointless Edge thing has been put to sleep, Although there seems to be no way according to Google that the Edge thing can be uninstalled.
Even the Windows 10 task manager is a joke.
In fact my 13 year old XP computer is better than this Windows 10 thing.

Watch out for Windows 10 signing you into all sorts of things you don't want to be signed into as well.

Now back to the imminent appearance of 98L?
Quoting 1970. MahFL:

Interesting, a couple of hot towers were able to form way WNW of Danny's center, could be actual less shear there ?





From what I remember on the charts earlier it looked like the shear was well out in front of the storm. It looked like it extended at least a day into the projected path. But I don't know if it has changed since. Pat or Baha care to chime in?
Quoting 1891. Grothar:



You should make that your preamble when you make your posts. :)


predictable response... :)
dry air and shear has reached the core of danny and the center is almost fully exposed. danny still has a slight pulse...but the end is near.
1975. Patrap
Quoting 1970. MahFL:

Interesting, a couple of hot towers were able to form way WNW of Danny's center, could be actual less shear there ?






Hot towers are exceptionally tall and deep convective cells that push past the tropopause. Those aren't hot towers, rather they are a few lucky ordinary convective cells that are accentuated by the setting sun.
Now time to watch what will be Erika
Quoting 1959. Patrap:




Yesterday ??