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Danny Strengthens in Atlantic; Goni, Atsani Rev Up in Pacific

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2015

Tropical activity is on the upswing today, with two intensifying cyclones in the Northwest Pacific (one a super typhoon), a Central Pacific disturbance that could make a run at Hawaii, and a tropical storm in the Atlantic threatening to become the region’s first hurricane of the year. At 11:00 am EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Danny was located near 11.2°N, 41.1°W, or about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving just north of due west at about 12 mph. Danny was struggling this morning, in part due to having ingested dry air from its northwest. Showers and thunderstorms were more scattered than last night, and much of Danny’s central convective core had dissipated. However, in its 11:00 am EDT discussion, the National Hurricane Center notes that the structure of the inner core has improved somewhat since Tuesday, and core convection was beginning to rebuild on Wednesday afternoon. Apart from the vast swath of Saharan dust and dry air that lurks just to the north, conditions remain favorable for Danny to intensify, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around 28°C (82°F) and vertical wind shear quite low (less than 10 mph) for at least the next couple of days.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Danny, collected by the GOES-East floater satellite at 1715 GMT (1:15 pm EDT) on Wednesday, August 19. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Dry air dominates the northeast Caribbean and north Atlantic around latitude 20°N, as Tropical Storm Danny (lower right of image) continues on a west-northwest track. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Various track models at 1200 GMT Wednesday largely agreed on a west-northwest track for Tropical Storm Danny over the next five days (120 hours). A list of models and definitions can be found at the NHC website. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project.


This morning’s models (1200 GMT Wednesday) have converged more strongly on a steady west-northwest bearing for Danny, predicted to continue throughout the next five days. Such a track would bring Danny close to the northernmost Leeward Islands by Sunday or Monday, as projected by the official NHC outlook (see Figure 4 below). There’s less model agreement on Danny’s future intensity, although it appears that Danny may peak in the next 2 or 3 days before entering a period of greater struggle. The 1200 GMT run of the recently upgraded HWRF model, which has been bullish on Danny from the start, make Danny a strong Category 1 hurricane by the end of this week, then weakens it back to tropical-storm strength. The GFDL model, the other of our two most reliable dynamical models for intensity, had retreated from its initial skepticism about Danny by Tuesday. The 1200 GMT GFDL run brings Danny to a similar peak intensity as the HWRF, with a minimal central pressure close to 970 millibars. Statistical intensity models, which are the most reliable guidance beyond Day 3, have begun to pull back from earlier forecasts that Danny would reach solid Category 2 strength by the weekend.


Figure 4. NHC’s outlook for Danny as of 11:00 am EDT Wednesday.

The official NHC outlook from 11:00 am EDT Wednesday projects Danny to reach Category 1 strength by Friday, with a slight decrease in strength over the weekend. Beyond the five-day outlook period, questions multiply as to how strong Danny will be (if it survives) and whether it might continue tracking toward the Bahamas or recurve out to sea. It remains far too soon to know how much of a threat Danny might pose to the United States next week, assuming it holds together. NOAA is scheduled to begin research flights around Danny on Friday, using its Gulfstream V and P-3 aircraft, while Air Force hurricane-hunter flights into the storm are currently slated to begin on Saturday afternoon.



Figure 5. Infrared satellite image of the central tropical Pacific, collected by the GOES-West satellite at 1630 GMT (12:30 pm EDT) Wednesday, August 19, showing Hawaii (center) along with Invest 93C, the large, poorly organized system to its southeast. Image credit: CIMMS Tropical Cyclones.

Invest 93C: a potential threat for Hawaii
Forecasters in Hawaii are already casting a wary eye toward Invest 93C, which was located about 915 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, at 2:00 am HST (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday. Convection is disorganized but widespread in the vicinity of 93C. Now moving slowly toward the north, 93C is predicted to turn toward the northwest over the next several days before recurving northeastward. The particulars of that track—still to be determined--are crucial to whether 93C might impact Hawaii. The 0600 GMT Wednesday run of the GFDL model suggests the possibility that 93C could affect the Big Island as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane late in the weekend, while the 0600 GMT run of the HWRF model similarly develops 93C but recurves it well to the east of Hawaii. The 1200 GMT runs of both models paint a similar picture, and other models agree that 93C is likely to become Tropical Storm Kilo over the next several days. This year has been active in the Central Pacific, with an assist from unusually warm SSTs (currently running about 1-2°C above average south of Hawaii) partially associated with El Niño. SSTs south of Hawaii are well above the 26°C threshold for supporting tropical cyclones, and the high wind shear now over Hawaii (40 – 60 knots) is predicted to relax significantly over the next several days, as a weak upper trough is replaced by a building ridge. Tropical cyclones approaching Hawaii from the south can generally maintain their strength more easily than those approaching from the east, as they spend less time over marginally warm water and may experience less wind shear. The two most intense hurricanes to strike Hawaii in modern times—Iniki (1992) and Dot (1959)—both arrived at Kauai from the south. The Air Force is currently scheduled to begin reconnaissance flights into 93C starting on Friday afternoon.


Figure 6. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east have hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.



Figure 7. Full-disk visible image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite, collected at 1100 GMT on August 19, showing twin typhoons Goni (left) and Atsani (right). Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency, courtesy Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel.

Goni and Atsani roil the Northwest Pacific
Like two ghostly eyes peering out from the sea, the centers of Typhoon Goni and Super Typhoon Atsani are gazing up at satellites monitoring their powerhouse development. Now a Category 3 storm, with peak sustained 1-minute winds of 125 mph as of 1200 GMT Wednesday, Goni is maintaining a steadily westerly course over very warm waters. Models now agree that Goni will sharply recurve this weekend, and the model trend has been for the recurvature to happen before reaching Taiwan—good news for that populated island, still picking up the pieces from Typhoon Soudelor a few days ago. However, the recurvature will put Okinawa and Japan’s southernmost islands more at risk from a weakening Goni. As it recurves, Goni is projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to peak as Category 4 strength, with winds topping out around 145 mph.

Well to the east, Category 5 Atsani was packing sustained winds close to 160 mph at 1200 GMT Wednesday as it continued its northwesterly course. Favorable SSTs and light wind shear should allow Atsani to continue racking up accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). The JTWC keeps Atsani at super-typhoon strength (1-minute sustained winds of at least 150 mph) for at least another day before gradual weakening begins. Atsani is expected to recurve long before reaching Japan.

If Goni intensifies a bit more than predicted, it’s possible we will have two super typhoons at the same time. According to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), this has happened only five times since 1950, most recently in 1997 (the last year we had a strong and intensifying El Niño):

Pamela and Nancy (9/11/1961)
Mary and Lucy (8/17-8/18/1965)
Alice and Cora (9-2-9/3/1966)
Owen and Page (11/27/1990)
Ivan and Joan (10/17-10/19/1997)

We’ll have a post later today on how a subtle but important atmospheric feature called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) may be influencing Tropical Storm Danny. For more on Danny, see today’s update from WU blogger Steve Gregory.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters





Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Guys
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago

With #Danny so organized at the surface, wouldn't be surprised to see convective flareup next 6-12 hours, but ECMWF suggests no sudden moves
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson

Taco :O)
Later everyone..

I'll check back in later this evening..

12z run..


tropical storm danny
As Kman said the inner core structure is well formed as seen in the MW Image from 9 hrs ago.

The next MW image will show the improvement on this .

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Wow just look at the eyes of the two west Pacific storms. They're like mini black holes
Thank you for the updates...you may be staying busy!
Oh and doc that's Kauai you're talking about not Maui
Danny is definitely another one of those "everything has to be perfect" systems that we've (unfortunately) become accustomed to seeing. One small blip in the radar, and these systems just drop dead. Time will tell...
Come on Danny! Lets go Danny!

Clap! Clap!
Quoting 3. ncstorm:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago

With #Danny so organized at the surface, wouldn't be surprised to see convective flareup next 6-12 hours, but ECMWF suggests no sudden moves


Either Levi read my mind or I his :-)
Quoting 4. taco2me61:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson

Taco :O)


TACO!!!!!!
Quoting 5. ncstorm:
Later everyone..

I'll check back in later this evening..

12z run..


I like that ensemble - it certainly clears things up ;-)


showing about four storms on here
Quoting 1231. Geoboy645:

He is talking about the west Pacific guys not the atlantic


Culpa mia
18. SLU
Danny, "Erika", "Fred"?


Wow.... the minute I stop refreshing the blog every minute, we get a new blog ....
Quoting 15. Greg01:



I like that ensemble - it certainly clears things up ;-)


Did anyone else just have a mini stroke trying to look at that NCEP mess? Geez.
21. IDTH
Quoting 7. Patrap:

As Kman said the inner core structure is well formed as seen in the MW Image from 9 hrs ago.

The next MW image will show the improvement on this .

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)




Where can you view the microwave images?
Quoting 20. nash36:



Did anyone else just have a mini stroke trying to look at that NCEP mess? Geez.


it made people with 20/20 vision think they needed glasses lol
Quoting 1240. PlazaRed:


Amazing the COL point just below the centre of the distance between the 2 typhoons, virtually zero wind speed.
Very well shown in this image.
That caught my eye ... imagine begin caught in there with a non-motorized sailboat ....
Quoting 5. ncstorm:

Later everyone..

I'll check back in later this evening..

12z run..



Might look like OTS but who knows, the cone of doom is as big as it gets right now, some of those models don't show recurve away from the NE coast
Where can you view the microwave images?


here
Quoting 21. IDTH:

So true... the blog wax and wane more than any storm I every seen lol. The key thing is Danny is moving slowly so its not out racing the convective canopy and would reach the Islands till early next week. So there will be alot of headaches and excitment between then. So this will take time and patience.
Quoting 18. SLU:

Danny, "Erika", "Fred"?



Quoting 5. ncstorm:

Later everyone..

I'll check back in later this evening..

12z run..



Look at the one that runs right over Tampa. That looks about right to me. The others are all crap;)
rikki13th ther is no patience on this blog. they all want death and destruction and immediate answers as to where it will go. The models are all wrong the NHC is all wrong etc.,etc.


do you guys see the spin next to AFRICAN COAST
Quoting 23. BahaHurican:

That caught my eye ... imagine begin caught in there with a non-motorized sailboat ....


A Ship got caught in Ike in 2008.

On Saturday, September 13, 2008, the US Coast Guard sent the tugboat Rotterdam to rescue the crew of a disabled freighter, Antalina,carrying 22 people, hours after the ship had survived Hurricane Ike, without any means of escaping. Repairs to the ship's broken fuel pump will be made at sea; the tugboat will then tow the ship to Port Arthur, Texas, to be anchored for additional repairs and eventually to offload more of its cargo: petroleum coke, a petroleum byproduct.
Quoting 14. tiggeriffic:



TACO!!!!!!


Oh it is so good to see you on today Tigger
Lots to see and read over the next week or so.
How are you doing ((((Hugs))))

Taco :o)
I am feeling quite the artist

TPW of the WPac

 photo Screenshot 2015-08-19 at 7.44.09 PM_zps5grhnzmw.png
Quoting 6. hurricanes2018:



tropical storm danny


You can clearly see the moisture to his east is racing towards the center while LLC sit back and relax waiting for that boost.
If Danny. Hits land be for going out too sea then its not a fish
Quoting 32. taco2me61:



Oh it is so good to see you on today Tigger
Lots to see and read over the next week or so.
How are you doing ((((Hugs))))

Taco :o)


Waiting to see what my hubby's namesake (aka Danny) will do .... appears that if it were to remain on this westward track, it would be a Labor Day weekend type of storm...rather fitting don't you think? hope all is well with you
If you guys want to track Danny into the Caribbean and have a possible GOM or Florida thing... you have to hope Danny continues to feel some drier airand some shear....keeping him a TS for the next week or so.
Quoting 30. hurricanes2018:



do you guys see the spin next to AFRICAN COAST
What, the one by the Canary Islands?
1815 UTC Viz



Quoting 37. scottsvb:

If you guys want to track Danny into the Caribbean and have a possible GOM or Florida thing... you have to hope Danny continues to feel some drier airand some shear....keeping him a TS for the next week or so.
maybe a open tropical wave if the wind shear hit it
Quoting 28. Bucsboltsfan:



Look at the one that runs right over Tampa. That looks about right to me. The others are all crap;)


Chances of Tampa getting hit are about the same chances a Cleveland Sports team will win a championship 1 %
Than you for that Dynamic Duo update!
Quoting 40. hurricanes2018:

maybe a open tropical wave if the wind shear hot it


Well we don't want it to get that weak to where it might not come back. We still want to track a Storm, just if we want this to make it to the GOM or Florida... we need him to stay week thru the 5-7 day period until it gets west of the DR
See if we can get a Danny (2009) redux
Danny's CoC remains in the center of the Dvorak Bullseye




the big key is tonight for Tropical Storm Danny !! is Tropical Storm Danny going to Strengthen
E coast low forming I think near 33N 73W I think over the next day or so it should continue to move E the turn N by Friday morning

Eventually passing Burmuda to its W and gone out of Bermudas hair by Sat IMO
Quoting 36. tiggeriffic:



Waiting to see what my hubby's namesake (aka Danny) will do .... appears that if it were to remain on this westward track, it would be a Labor Day weekend type of storm...rather fitting don't you think? hope all is well with you

Oh got my problems although I just don't need this right now.
Not in the "Gulf Anyway". I fell with a gallon of milk and yes
crushed 1 toe and broken 2 others.... Other than that just
waiting on surgery for my lower back... I hit the 50's and falling
apart.... lol

That's about it.... :o)

Taco :o)
Danny is extremely well organized at the surface still

Ada Monzón ‏@adamonzon 1h1 hour ago View translation
Hay fuerte inyección de polvo del Sahara con aire seco sobre #Danny y, con todo y eso, persiste su circulación.
What's up, Taco?

Good to see ya!
Quoting 51. Stormchaser2007:

Danny is extremely well organized at the surface still


Looks great. Just isn't translating into convection.
Quoting 48. taco2me61:


Oh got my problems although I just don't need this right now.
Not in the "Gulf Anyway". I fell with a gallon of milk and yes
crushed 1 toe and broken 2 others.... Other than that just
waiting on surgery for my lower back... I hit the 50's and falling
apart.... lol

That's about it.... :o)

Taco :o)


ck your email dollface....got a cure for the toes
12 hour interpolated ECMWF

ok...gotta bounce...will ck in after the updates at 5...
Quoting 41. scottsvb:



Chances of Tampa getting hit are about the same chances a Cleveland Sports team will win a championship 1 %


Now that's pretty funny. Accurate, as well. Tampa has had this incomprehensible shield around it since dirt was discovered.
Quoting 49. TeleConnectSnow:

I'm new here, but .....
Amazing. Fewer than 10 comments and you waste one this way.
Quoting 54. nash36:

What's up, Taco?

Good to see ya!

Hey Nash good seeing you too my friend :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 33. VR46L:

I am feeling quite the artist

TPW of the WPac

 photo Screenshot 2015-08-19 at 7.44.09 PM_zps5grhnzmw.png


Quoting 56. tiggeriffic:



ck your email dollface....got a cure for the toes

I hope it is not surgery LOL
I have had enough of that....
Then to deal with a storm "UGH"
LOL

Taco :o)

This shows approximately 55kts but the ship model continues showing it at 45kts. Wonder why is that.
Quoting 45. Patrap:

Danny's CoC remains in the center of the Dvorak Bullseye







I have Danny's LLCOC located just S of the heaviest bit in that convective blob so just about the same as the bullseye moving W



Quoting 57. Grothar:

12 hour interpolated ECMWF


Quoting 62. Grothar:




Hmm interesting
Quoting 59. nash36:



Now that's pretty funny. Accurate, as well. Tampa has had this incomprehensible shield around it since dirt was discovered.


Thats was a Saturday I believe, but check with Grothar nash, He's a eon older than myself.

: )
Quoting 34. Ricki13th:



You can clearly see the moisture to his east is racing towards the center while LLC sit back and relax waiting for that boost.

Well I'll be...there actually was an eye earlier today. Wow!
Danny force to clear the sal and doing well.
Quoting 41. scottsvb:



Chances of Tampa getting hit are about the same chances a Cleveland Sports team will win a championship 1 %
they all point to Tampa at one point... even the ones over in the Pacific have at least one model pointing to Tampa ..lol
I have it at about 11.3N 41.5W now returning W after a little jog WNW
The heaviest of the convection that over the centre is actually now on the N side of it
Thanks for the updates, Dr Jeff / Mr Bob.
Interaction with that sprawling Saharan Air Layer seems largest uncertainty next 5 days, affecting Danny's intensity. Beyond that, a TON of uncertainty on eventual track / impacts with wildly divergent model solutions sure to confound. I predict rampant speculation to fill pages, lol...

Heck, I was feeling pretty good viewing the 12Z GFS solution, with a track mostly clipping N fringes, most island folks avoiding NE quad's worst, and entrenched East Great Lakes trof forcing curvature into next week, etc... Then, I looked too far into the long range multitude of fantasy options with trof lifting out, ridges rebuilding, stalling, looping around, uncertainty monster reigning thru 384 hrs. And all the previous storms of my past 60+ years experience began haunting my thoughts.
Yeah, I know better...
;)
Quoting 61. meiscat:


Your username sounds familiar...
Capital Weather Gang Snowbros?


I have been over on liveweatherblogs for the pats 6 years or so, but we moved over to weather 2015 fb group after a fallout. Love hurricanes/tropics along with winter weather, heard about this place and how good it was, and it is great. Unbelievable group of posters on here..
Quoting 62. Grothar:




Hi Gro-
Are those tracks based on a weaker Danny?
Thunderstorms here have some pop to them, not much rain has fallen in my area though it's picking up a bit now. Just waiting on the 5edt advisory.

Quoting 41. scottsvb:



Chances of Tampa getting hit are about the same chances a Cleveland Sports team will win a championship 1 %


Yeah, the Cavaliers have no shot whatsoever. On the topic of sports seeing FCB getting blasted the other day was marvelous.



tropical storm danny
I think the models are too far N IMO

Anyway 1&1/2 more days of model flipping and flopping till RECON data can fix the problem
Latest WPC Day 7


So early on i said Danny seemed to be developing an eye..Looks like i was wright
77. DocNDswamp


Hows it go again Doc?

....weak storm Miami, Nola beware?


I did not say dat.

I was never here'

: )
88. IDTH
Quoting 51. Stormchaser2007:

Danny is extremely well organized at the surface still



Danny would probably be a hurricane right now if it wasn't for the lack of convection.
Quoting 86. junie1:

So early on i said Danny seemed to be developing an eye..Looks like i was wright


there was no eye the lower COC was uncovered ..
Quoting 59. nash36:



Now that's pretty funny. Accurate, as well. Tampa has had this incomprehensible shield around it since dirt was discovered.
Tampa also has a geographic location which provides it with some protection against a landfalling hurricane in the period between late June and early October, as a result of climatology. It certainly can get hit and has gotten hit many times by land-arriving systems which approach from the southeast but that does not normally have the same effect(s).


watching tropical storm danny
Pleasant good afternoon to everyone. I was quiet for a while because believe it or not I forgot my password but finally decided to reset it as I could not resist not making comments seeing that Tropical Storm Danny is likely to affect us here in Antigua by early next week. Well what's the buzz here? Rain please .....no storm force winds but rain yet, it seems like we will be getting both. Antigua and Barbuda need rain and lots of it!!!! But then again storms (of any category) do not bother me, in fact, I find them quite exciting.
I wonder if the developing low might affect the track of Danny by causing weakness in the high. I mentioned this low the other day and no one could see it. Anybody have any opinions what might happen?? I really do think this is important.


This is what I think with Danny

Danny makes similar track to the new Euro but stronger system

The Atlantic ridge rebuild back faster and shifts W

The E coast system remains weak for most of the meandering near Bermuda and moves out quicker moves out by Friday

IMO of course
What are the T scores on Danny now?
Quoting 79. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Are those tracks based on a weaker Danny?


I honestly don't know. Since they were recent, I would assume the models have taken that into account.
Great info as always..That is some awesome power in the Pacific, Danny is well organized even while plowing through the dust. Strong Nino to boot..Interesting to watch and learn. Thank you.
Quoting 93. Grothar:

I wonder if the developing low might affect the track of Danny by causing weakness in the high. I mentioned this low the other day and no one could see it. Anybody have any opinions what might happen?? I really do think this is important.



the new storm off the east coast will go north and make a weakness for tropical storm danny
Quoting 94. wunderkidcayman:

This is what I think with Danny

Danny makes similar track to the new Euro but stronger system

The Atlantic ridge rebuild back faster and shifts W

The E coast system remains weak for most of the meandering near Bermuda and moves out quicker moves out by Friday

IMO of course



Yes similar to this but a stronger Atlantic high and Danny a smige S of that


Quoting 85. nrtiwlnvragn:

Latest WPC Day 7





Atsani WV loop



watch the low next to the east coast
Goni
Rainbow Loop

Quoting 101. Patrap:

Atsani WV loop


nw quad is eroding now as per wv
thanks for update gentlemen the end of another busy day for me is an hr away
The GFS run in the long term is the worst yet. I highly doubt a storm would recurve right into the teeth of high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and the Bermuda high. It's the typical poleward biased.


Quoting 99. hurricanes2018:

the new storm off the east coast will go north and make a weakness for tropical storm danny


I say no

I say E coast system will remain weak and move N also the the Atlantic high ridge rebuild underneath the E coast system and push W thus cutting off the weakness
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm interesting


I thought you would like this one. This one is going to hard to track.
Quoting 93. Grothar:

I wonder if the developing low might affect the track of Danny by causing weakness in the high. I mentioned this low the other day and no one could see it. Anybody have any opinions what might happen?? I really do think this is important.





Grothar I am not so sure that the Low up the east coast will have a effect to Danny.
The Bermuda High is to build back in after the 5 day run and looks to send what ever
is left of Danny more towards to the West - Northwest...
Now that I'm saying this you will probably be right and as for me
I'll be wrong.... just saying

Taco :o)
Quoting 51. Stormchaser2007:

Danny is extremely well organized at the surface still


Interesting graphic Storm.
Quoting 107. Ricki13th:

The GFS run in the long term is the worst yet. I highly doubt a storm would recurve right into the teeth of high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and the Bermuda high. It's the typical poleward biased.





I didn't buy into the GFS from the start anyway
Quoting 38. BahaHurican:

What, the one by the Canary Islands?


I believe he's talking about the one getting ready to emerge off the coast of Guinea.
Quoting 110. Grothar:



I thought you would like this one. This one is going to hard to track.


Lol your right there are so many to choose lol

Quoting 79. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Are those tracks based on a weaker Danny?


Each one has a different initialization though some may have the same pressure or windspeed.


AL 04 2015081912 03 AP01 0 110N 410W 44 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP02 0 110N 409W 41 1008
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP03 0 110N 409W 44 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP04 0 110N 410W 42 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP05 0 110N 409W 42 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP06 0 110N 410W 43 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP07 0 110N 409W 43 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP08 0 110N 409W 43 1008
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP09 0 110N 410W 46 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP10 0 110N 409W 40 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP11 0 110N 410W 45 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP12 0 110N 410W 42 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP13 0 110N 410W 44 1010
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP14 0 110N 410W 40 1008
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP15 0 110N 409W 35 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP16 0 110N 410W 44 1008
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP17 0 110N 409W 49 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP18 0 110N 410W 44 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP19 0 110N 409W 44 1009
AL 04 2015081912 03 AP20 0 110N 410W 47 1009
Quoting 95. all4hurricanes:

What are the T scores on Danny now?


here Link

and here Link


please book mark them
Quoting 58. tiggeriffic:

ok...gotta bounce...will ck in after the updates at 5...
Same passed as Irene, probably crossing the SE Leewards and center over Puerto Rico , heading to the Bahamas, missing Dominican Republic,....
Danny looks like a typical post-2010 Atlantic tropical cyclone right now. We'll see if that changes tonight. The structure is there for it to try something.

Quoting 119. CybrTeddy:

Danny looks like a typical post-2010 Atlantic tropical cyclone right now. We'll see if that changes tonight. The structure is there for it to try something.





dos it still have a closed low? any one check?
maybe the actual circulation is small but the clouds now acc/ with Danny covers a large area. if it can consolidate watch out. hopefully the weakness created in part by the bermuda system guides Danny harmlessly out to sea and make a ton of surfers feel worthy again
Quoting 120. Tazmanian:




dos it still have a closed low? any one check?

Last checked yes
Quoting 108. hydrus:


If Danny can pull all that humity behind him towards the islands, drought will be over, less hope for the best...
Danny has beaten the dust I believe, but there is 40 kts of shear in its path. If the shear lessened, a significant hurricane for the northern Antilles would be a possibility.



Quoting 120. Tazmanian:




dos it still have a closed low? any one check?


Yes Taz. Vigorous low-level circulation as confirmed by the scatterometers in orbit.
Quoting 107. Ricki13th:

The GFS run in the long term is the worst yet. I highly doubt a storm would recurve right into the teeth of high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and the Bermuda high. It's the typical poleward biased.



That could happen and at this point is just as likely as any other long term model solution. Notice how this particular long term model run depicts what looks like frontal trough-related rains over Florida, which has happened several times already in this El Niño summer. Also it shows the storm moving between two high pressure areas, not into the teeth of the Bermuda High.

I'm not saying this will happen but we cannot possibly know ten days out and this does represent just one possible scenario amongst many others.
Quoting 108. hydrus:




You can see the moisture being pulled into the center from the south. He's getting ready to make a run for hurricane status.
Quoting 111. taco2me61:



Grothar I am not so sure that the Low up the east coast will have a effect to Danny.
The Bermuda High is to build back in after the 5 day run and looks to send what ever
is left of Danny more towards to the West - Northwest...
Now that I'm saying this you will probably be right and as for me
I'll be wrong.... just saying

Taco :o)


What a nice young man. You don't have to apologize for your opinion. You could very well be correct. It's just nice to know there's someone who respects little old men. I like it when some newbie disagrees with me and calls me dude!!!!!!

I have to watch that ridge.
129. FOREX
TWC very bearish after Sunday for Danny. Let's enjoy him while we have him.
130. 900MB
Quoting 112. SoFLRoofguy:

Interesting graphic Storm.


Thanks! Great image/info!
Quoting 127. Huracan94:



You can see the moisture being pulled into the center from the south. He's getting ready to make a run for hurricane status.
Reminds me of Isaac.
Quoting 117. Tazmanian:



here Link

and here Link


please book mark them


Yeah, Book 'em Dano!!!
Danny seems unique. he had a chance to split from the itcz instead dove s.w. now its sucking up another area of moisture the size of itself. very interesting


Danny just about pulled in the moisture to his east which should help, a well defined vigorous circulation even on satellite , still moving almost due west, coc near 11.3N/41.2W
135. txjac
Wow, what a difference an hour or so makes. Was on the last blog whining as it wasnt raining even though we had a tremendous amount of thunder and lightening. New blog now, and I can say that we have picked up about 1.5" of rain!
Goes from heavy to mild and then back to heavy. Loving this afternoon. However my poor little Peanut at home is probably huddled up against the refrigerator as he normally does when it thunders
Quoting 86. junie1:

So early on i said Danny seemed to be developing an eye..Looks like i was wright


check out this blog here
Link

talks all about your eye
mr steve does a nice write up about it more should stop by say hello give it a read interesting info
Quoting 120. Tazmanian:




dos it still have a closed low? any one check?
yes
Quite a lightning spectacle to my north. Just drizzling here though. None of this seems to be in SC aside from the Myrtle area, I'm sure ECSurf wishes he could have some.

Drought summary [Link]
Quoting 119. CybrTeddy:

Danny looks like a typical post-2010 Atlantic tropical cyclone right now. We'll see if that changes tonight. The structure is there for it to try something.



Danny will be nothing more than entertainment for us.
Quoting 124. hydrus:

Danny has beaten the dust I believe, but there is 40 kts of shear in its path. If the shear lessened, a significant hurricane for the northern Antilles would be a possibility.




Shear line should move west with Danny.
141. TXCWC
Operational GFS (red track line) is to the right of almost all it's ensemble runs. Meaning a low confidence forecast run. Euro and Gem keep Danny much weaker longer term and as a result further sw of gfs track. Interestingly both Euro and Gem also take Danny or what's left of him (or some other feature behind Danny ) and place it on a possible track heading towards the keys and Gulf. In short, wide range of long term tracks possible with lots of room for error. No one can really know with absolute certainty currently what is eventually going to happen with Danny. Could end up a Fish or find his way or what's left of him in the Gulf.


GEM


EURO

Quoting 120. Tazmanian:




dos it still have a closed low? any one check?


Rip Danny is the gfs still an outlier ?
143. MahFL
Convection is on the wane again :(.
144. 900MB
Not to get all non-technical, but if Danny can take the fat blob to it's NE and suck in the blob to the East, it may be able to swing that over the top for a bit of a shield and some nice o'night time to intensify. We'll see...
Looks like Danny is about to refuel.
Danny not really trying out there lol. Expect a decrease to 35-40kts at 5p.m.
147. FOREX
Quoting 146. MiamiHurricanes09:

Danny not really trying out there lol. Expect a decrease to 35-40kts at 5p.m.
Needs Viagra.
148. 882MB
Incredible satellite loop of these 2 monsters in the W-PAC.

149. IDTH
This may be the reason why Danny is struggling now
Link
In the event that the gfs verifies it seems that unless Danny gets beat down going over Cuba that it would have a chance in the GOM. I'm a novice so would someone please explain why many here seem to think that the right hook scenario is a given? What is the gulf looking like for when the system would be likely to get there (of course I understand that any number of things will change between now and then).
151. FOREX
Quoting 144. 900MB:

Not to get all non-technical, but if Danny can take the fat blob to it's NE and suck in the blob to the East, it may be able to swing that over the top for a bit of a shield and some nice o'night time to intensify. We'll see...
Wish I could think so positively.
152. SLU
Popcorn firing within Danny's tight circulation. Exciting night lies ahead.

153. FOREX
Quoting 150. Sandcat:

In the event that the gfs verifies it seems that unless Danny gets beat down going over Cuba that it would have a chance in the GOM. I'm a novice so would someone please explain why many here seem to think that the right hook scenario is a given? What is the gulf looking like for when the system would be likely to get there (of course I understand that any number of things will change between now and then).
Everyone would love Danny to go to the Gulf but it looks like he will dissipate quickly by next Wednesday.
Quoting 134. stormpetrol:



Danny just about pulled in the moisture to his east which should help, a well defined vigorous circulation even on satellite , still moving almost due west, coc near 11.3N/41.2W

To me this weak system has reached latitude 11.5 N.
Quoting 145. cajunkid:

Looks like Danny is about to refuel.


Or retire. Whichever comes first.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

Quoting 156. nash36:



Or retire. Whichever comes first.

its having troubles but to be honest it was expected
its chosen not to ramp up solution still could change
gem and euro thats close for over a week away
Quoting 152. SLU:

Popcorn firing within Danny's tight circulation. Exciting night lies ahead.




I think last night was its chance
tonight may not be as good as all suspect
normally second 24 hrs after a storm forms
its in the wane and struggling cycle
it may be after sunrise in the morning over the storm
before it starts the next intense cycle if it even occurs
Quoting 154. juracanpr1:


To me this weak system has reached latitude 11.5 N.


Nah below 11.5N

I say 11.3/11.4N 41.7W
Quoting 132. Grothar:


Yeah, Book 'em Dano!!!

Hey, Gro. After winning the struggle with this d* prepaid surf stick at my parent's where no internet is available, I just explained to my 92 years old dad the wonders of WU, Danny and your posts as from a guy who is ages older than him :-)) He was impressed.

Greetings to the blog and good night from Germany!


Danny's hidden eye.
Quoting 146. MiamiHurricanes09:

Danny not really trying out there lol. Expect a decrease to 35-40kts at 5p.m.


They will keep him at the same strength. Convection or not, Danny is very organized in the low levels.
At 5:00 PM, East NHC would put the chances below zero for Danny to become a hurricane, also I expect a decrease in intensity
Quoting 165. juracanpr1:

At 5:00 PM, East NHC would put the chances below zero for Danny to become a hurricane, also I expect a decrease in intensity
You work there?
168. FOREX
Quoting 165. juracanpr1:

At 5:00 PM, East NHC would put the chances below zero for Danny to become a hurricane, also I expect a decrease in intensity


I thing you're wrong, but you may be right.
Quoting 164. reedzone:



They will keep him at the same strength. Convection or not, Danny is very organized in the low levels.
Indeed. If one looks close, there are more thunderstorms popping not far from the center. Neat system to study.

170. TXCWC
Quoting 150. Sandcat:

In the event that the gfs verifies it seems that unless Danny gets beat down going over Cuba that it would have a chance in the GOM. I'm a novice so would someone please explain why many here seem to think that the right hook scenario is a given? What is the gulf looking like for when the system would be likely to get there (of course I understand that any number of things will change between now and then).


It's not a given but the short simple reason for a possible fish storm out to sea (Bermuda always needs to be watched) is the expected presence of a trough off the east coast which could allow a path north and out to sea IF Danny is organized and strong enough to "feel it." Also how strong will such a trough be and how quickly will it move out?

EURO day 8 trough show in blue


GFS day 8 - notice it is showing a stronger trough than the Euro forecast

Just noting as we near the end of the work day that we should be used now to struggling tropical storms in the Central Atlantic due to dry and stable air issues; that has actually been the MO for the past several seasons. At that level, the current struggles with Danny are not surprising. What came as a surprise perhaps was the potential Cat 2 intensity (before reaching the Antilles) according to yesterday's models and initial NHC outlook. Now some of the models (and NHC) have pulled back on intensity a bit and the storm has struggled this afternoon.

Unless NHC pulls back further at the next advisories, Danny's best days are still ahead and the Friday time-frame might still hold regardless of present conditions: Danny is having problems with some dry air and generating sustained convection at the core but the overall structure (vis-loop) and circulation is still there. It remains to be seen whether Danny can actually make hurricane status before reaching the Antilles.


The difference between 11.4 and 11.5 is a whole 6 nautical miles.
One should never discount a CV System ...tenacity is a common theme with many.

Esp the Historic ones.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

Satellite imagery shows that Danny's deep convection collapsed late
this morning, with the experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery suggesting that dry-air entrainment could be the cause.
Although visible satellite pictures still show a vigorous
circulation and some renewed convection, the system overall has lost
organization and become more embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone since yesterday. With little change in the Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in agreement
with the latest CI number from TAFB.

Given the current appearance of the cyclone, it might be that
dry air associated with the SAL intruding from the north and west
has become a greater impediment to intensification. Dry air aside,
other atmospheric parameters governing intensification would seem to
favor some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the
official forecast shows modest strengthening. After that time,
significantly drier mid-tropospheric air and an increase in westerly
flow aloft associated with an enhanced and persistent mid-oceanic
trough across the Caribbean region is expected to induce weakening
as shown in the ECWMF solution. There is a large discrepancy
between the statistical and dynamical model guidance, with the
GFS-based statistical guidance continuing to show more
intensification and the regional hurricane models showing only
modest strengthening followed by weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but a little lower than the previous one at
later times, consistent with the multi-model consensus.

The cyclone has been moving generally west but at a slower forward
speed (280/08) in response to a weakening subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone. A west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next next 2 to 3 days, at which time an interesting
split in the model guidance occurs. The GFS shows a much stronger
representation of Danny moving west-northwestward near and north of
the Greater Antilles in 3 to 5 days. The ECWMF solution, on the
other hand, depicts Danny as a shallower feature from the start and
as a weakening cyclone as it nears the Lesser Antilles on a westward
track. The new forecast track maintains the philosophy of the
previous one by showing a general westward track in the extended
range, giving more weight to the ECMWF solution that shows
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 13.1N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.8N 47.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.0N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.8N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 164. reedzone:



They will keep him at the same strength. Convection or not, Danny is very organized in the low levels.
At this point, Danny is more of a dry wind storm than a tropical cyclone considering the fact that tropical cyclones require organized deep convection in order to be classified as such. The lower-level structure is certainly promising, but the system is not delivering any sort of convection. Won't be able to survive long if it remains a naked swirl with very ragged shower activity.

I was on the high-end of the intensity forecast yesterday, actually expecting this thing to become a hurricane by tonight. I'm sure the thunderstorm activity will come, but the cyclone has undeniably become quite ragged.
Quoting 164. reedzone:



They will keep him at the same strength. Convection or not, Danny is very organized in the low levels.


Hi Allan- How's the married life? Still going to college?
What's your take on the future of Danny?
Quoting 173. Patrap:

One should never discount a CV System ...tenacity is a common theme with many.

Esp the Historic ones.




Any questions.....

NHC is still calling for a hurricane on Friday:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 19
Location: 11.5°N 42.0°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
184. FOREX
Ok, so the NHC has given up on Danny becoming anything significant. That's ok. He tried.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 192032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

...DANNY MOVING MORE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 42.0W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 42.0 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
could still become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Quoting 175. MiamiHurricanes09:

At this point, Danny is more of a dry wind storm than a tropical cyclone considering the fact that tropical cyclones require organized deep convection in order to be classified as such. The lower-level structure is certainly promising, but the system is not delivering any sort of convection. Won't be able to survive long if it remains a naked swirl with very ragged shower activity.

I was on the high-end of the intensity forecast yesterday, actually expecting this thing to become a hurricane by tonight. I'm sure the thunderstorm activity will come, but the cyclone has undeniably become quite ragged.


Very hard for me to be convinced at this point that this won't be yet another sad and forgettable storm that dies out before it reaches the islands like almost every single storm to develop in the MDR in the last 3-4 years.
Interesting to know we were tracking 97L 4 years ago... 97L became Irene.
The blog so slow today.
Quoting 190. Gearsts:

The blog so slow today.
no show danny will do that
Meanwhile, the WPAC is demonstrating what a real tropical cyclone season looks like, instead of the joke of whatever the Atlantic has become.

What are the chances of Daniel entering the gulf?
Quoting 190. Gearsts:

The blog so slow today.

The blog could become slower tonight, and with a good reason: our guy (Danny) is agonizing. Tomorrow it could be worst (may have just a TD)
Hey Everyone! how is everyone doing tonight?

Quoting 193. SKYRIVER:

What are the chances of Daniel entering the gulf?


Ask again in a week.
Quoting 185. Patrap:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

...DANNY MOVING MORE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 42.0W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 42.0 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
could still become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




See? no change from last advisory.
My last post of the day and wishing everyone a safe weather afternoon; hope that the first Typhoon makes that turn soon before it moves into Asia:



Quoting 193. SKYRIVER:

What are the chances of Daniel entering the gulf?
slim too none so very small
Quoting 162. barbamz:


Hey, Gro. After winning the struggle with this d* prepaid surf stick at my parent's where no internet is available, I just explained to my 92 years old dad the wonders of WU, Danny and your posts as from a guy who is ages older than him :-)) He was impressed.

Greetings to the blog and good night from Germany!


Danny's hidden eye.



lol.
slim "to"




The NHC seems like there not sure which model to follow..One minute its the GFS next is the European Time will tell
Quoting 125. CybrTeddy:



Yes Taz. Vigorous low-level circulation as confirmed by the scatterometers in orbit.


Just like Leonard Nimoy as Spock would have said it to Taz. Thanks to all you who post the great satellite shots.
Quoting 193. SKYRIVER:

What are the chances of Daniel entering the gulf?


Slim two none.


image from Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan

so close to Okinawa prefectures.


tropical storm danny weak storm
Quoting 180. RitaEvac:



Any questions.....




Check out Frederic's track (1979) for a real "born-again hurricane"....
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

Satellite imagery shows that Danny's deep convection collapsed late
this morning, with the experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat
imagery suggesting that dry-air entrainment could be the cause.
Although visible satellite pictures still show a vigorous
circulation and some renewed convection, the system overall has lost
organization and become more embedded in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone since yesterday. With little change in the Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in agreement
with the latest CI number from TAFB.

Given the current appearance of the cyclone, it might be that
dry air associated with the SAL intruding from the north and west
has become a greater impediment to intensification. Dry air aside,
other atmospheric parameters governing intensification would seem to
favor some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the
official forecast shows modest strengthening. After that time,
significantly drier mid-tropospheric air and an increase in westerly
flow aloft associated with an enhanced and persistent mid-oceanic
trough across the Caribbean region is expected to induce weakening
as shown in the ECWMF solution. There is a large discrepancy
between the statistical and dynamical model guidance, with the
GFS-based statistical guidance continuing to show more
intensification and the regional hurricane models showing only
modest strengthening followed by weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but a little lower than the previous one at
later times, consistent with the multi-model consensus.

The cyclone has been moving generally west but at a slower forward
speed (280/08) in response to a weakening subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone. A west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next next 2 to 3 days, at which time an interesting
split in the model guidance occurs. The GFS shows a much stronger
representation of Danny moving west-northwestward near and north of
the Greater Antilles in 3 to 5 days. The ECWMF solution, on the
other hand, depicts Danny as a shallower feature from the start and
as a weakening cyclone as it nears the Lesser Antilles on a westward
track. The new forecast track maintains the philosophy of the
previous one by showing a general westward track in the extended
range, giving more weight to the ECMWF solution that shows
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 12.1N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 13.1N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.8N 47.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.0N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 16.8N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

numbers coming down on the winds
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/hurricaneben/show. html
Quoting 209. hurricanes2018:



tropical storm danny weak storm


I dont consider 50 mph. a "weak" storm....
  Thanks to the Dynamic Duo, Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, for the Informative Post,
Quoting 204. junie1:

The NHC seems like there not sure which model to follow..One minute its the GFS next is the European Time will tell

Disregarding the trajectory parameter, right now the best model is any model which dissipates this "storm" (may be no more than a TD now, IMO)
I wouldnt count danny out just yet because remeber at one point andrew was a 1013 mlb storm and look what happened there
Quoting 150. Sandcat:

In the event that the gfs verifies it seems that unless Danny gets beat down going over Cuba that it would have a chance in the GOM. I'm a novice so would someone please explain why many here seem to think that the right hook scenario is a given? What is the gulf looking like for when the system would be likely to get there (of course I understand that any number of things will change between now and then).
There is no track that's 100% certain at this point. As a general rule, stronger storms will get pulled toward a trough to the north while a weaker storm won't feel that pull as much. This also depends on things like how fast Danny moves, where the trough is when Danny is further north, and how strong the trough actually becomes. If Danny is weaker or stronger than currently forecast when it's just east of the Antilles, and how each of the other things I wrote about evolve, the ultimate path will be very different.

There's nothing special about the Gulf. SST's in almost all the western and northern Caribbean are as warm as the Gulf, and most of the water is deeper. The problem with the Gulf is that it's also covered in relatively stable air and a persistent ridge of high pressure. Those aren't good for a tropical storm. If Danny can survive in the western Caribbean, there are also a lot of terrain obstacles to cross in Hispaniola and Cuba before it can even get in the Gulf.

As I have said before, no one knows the ultimate outcome of Danny right now, and not much is off the table. Danny is looking a little sickly right now. That may just get worse or the storm might hit another sweet spot we don't even know exists. Once it's three or four days out, we can be more confident of what might happen. As of now, just watch what happens and use it to learn about how tropical storms behave.
From Politico:

A decade after Katrina, are America's flood estimates dangerously wrong?

Katrina came in from the coast. The next big one might come from the river—and new evidence says the Army Corps may be really wrong about the threat.

By MICHAEL GRUNWALD

In the Mississippi River town of Hannibal, Missouri, time apparently flies.

In 2013, Hannibal had a 50-year flood, a high-water event only expected once every 50 years. In 2014, it had another 50-year flood. Somehow, the river has reached its 10-year flood stage in Hannibal—which should happen about once a decade—in seven of the last eight years. And if the years seem to be passing with unusual speed, so do the centuries. Hannibal had a 200-year flood in 2008, considerably less than 200 years after an even larger deluge in 1993.

Evidence is mounting that Hannibal’s statistical anomalies have been caused not by glitches in the space-time continuum, but by a combination of floods getting worse and government estimates of flood risks being wrong. Those estimates of flood severity and frequency come from the long-troubled Army Corps of Engineers, and they determine how high to build levees and floodwalls, where to approve development in floodplains, and who needs to buy flood insurance.

But a new study of major Midwestern rivers in the Journal of Earth Science found that the Army Corps dramatically underestimates modern flood levels, leaving communities consistently underprepared for potential disasters at a time when flood protection is becoming a more urgent necessity. And climate change only seems to be a small part of the problem.

As the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this month refocuses attention on flood dangers in coastal communities—and on the foibles of the Army Corps, which played a central role in the drowning of New Orleans—the study by Washington University hydrogeologist Robert Criss suggests riverside communities are also much more vulnerable than they’ve been told. Criss calculated that official 100-year flood measurements are about four and a half feet too low in Hannibal, five and a half feet too low in St. Louis, and six feet too low in Omaha. After analyzing 150 years of data, he essentially concluded that Army Corps river managers have taken the advice of the legendary Hannibal native Mark Twain: “Get your facts first; then you can distort them as you please.”

“They go through a bunch of convoluted razzmatazz, and they end up with absolutely crazy numbers,” Criss said in an interview. “They’re lying to people. They’re saying it’s safe to build when it clearly isn’t.”

Read more >>
1834 UTC MW

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

There is a blob of convection & energy catching up to Danny from the right. It's disruptive for the time being but once it gets drawn into the center of Danny and really becomes a part of it, this may pull together somewhat suddenly.

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

Very interesting.
Quoting 204. junie1:

The NHC seems like there not sure which model to follow..One minute its the GFS next is the European Time will tell
They don't follow one model. Read the 5:00 discussion and learn.
Overshooting tops going up lets see what they do , likely fall apart again/
227. FOREX
Bloomberg Business ‏@business · 4m4 minutes ago
JUST IN: Weather Channel has hired Morgan Stanley, PJT to explore a sale, sources say http://bloom.bg/1EDgi47

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:00 AM HST August 19 2015
============================

A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure is about 915 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Quoting 209. hurricanes2018:



tropical storm danny weak storm
Is that another burst of convection I see there at 20:45 UTC?

This is going to be a Super Katrina folks!

Get all the plywood that you can get and run for the hills!
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 32m32 minutes ago
NASA GEOS-5 dust extinction shows TS #Danny eaten by Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Soon more favorable conditions
Quoting 203. Patrap:

slim "to"





I missed it had to run out day is done now unless ur dying dead or about to die I don't have to go out there no more its after 5 o'clock
Quoting 230. Tornado6042008X:

Is that another burst of convection I see there at 20:45 UTC?

This is going to be a Super Katrina folks!

Get all the plywood that you can get and run for the hills!
i hope you are right i like to see a nice looking hurricane soon
Quoting 180. RitaEvac:



Any questions.....



Just because a tropical cyclone is a Cape Verde Type system does not always mean it will turn into something big. Just look at all the hundreds of CV systems that have come off of Africa over the past several decades that ended up doing absolutely nothing. I think it is quite evident that Danny is on about to go on life support.
Quoting 217. juracanpr1:


Disregarding the trajectory parameter, right now the best model is any model which dissipates this "storm" (may be no more than a TD now, IMO)


If the NHC affirms that it's a 50 mph TS, it's a 50 mph TS. Haven't seen anything that suggests it's at TD status.
Quoting 231. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 32m32 minutes ago
NASA GEOS-5 dust extinction shows TS #Danny eaten by Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Soon more favorable conditions


Wind @ Surface + Dust Extinction (AOT)

Scale |

Source | GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA

Quoting 184. FOREX:

Ok, so the NHC has given up on Danny becoming anything significant. That's ok. He tried.
The utter ignorance of that statement is astounding.
Ha, you know we've been having reeeeaaaally quiet hurricane seasons when the top news story on the facebook sidebar is "National Hurricane Center Issues Advisories for Atlantic Ocean Storm."
Latest EURO 6 days out..

Quoting 219. sar2401:

There is no track that's 100% certain at this point. As a general rule, stronger storms will get pulled toward a trough to the north while a weaker storm won't feel that pull as much. This also depends on things like how fast Danny moves, where the trough is when Danny is further north, and how strong the trough actually becomes. If Danny is weaker or stronger than currently forecast when it's just east of the Antilles, and how each of the other things I wrote about evolve, the ultimate path will be very different.

There's nothing special about the Gulf. SST's in almost all the western and northern Caribbean are as warm as the Gulf, and most of the water is deeper. The problem with the Gulf is that it's also covered in relatively stable air and a persistent ridge of high pressure. Those aren't good for a tropical storm. If Danny can survive in the western Caribbean, there are also a lot of terrain obstacles to cross in Hispaniola and Cuba before it can even get in the Gulf.

As I have said before, no one knows the ultimate outcome of Danny right now, and not much is off the table. Danny is looking a little sickly right now. That may just get worse or the storm might hit another sweet spot we don't even know exists. Once it's three or four days out, we can be more confident of what might happen. As of now, just watch what happens and use it to learn about how tropical storms behave.

Thank you very much sar for the explanation.


Nice flare up right over the center
Quoting 231. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 32m32 minutes ago
NASA GEOS-5 dust extinction shows TS #Danny eaten by Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Soon more favorable conditions


Wind @ Surface Dust Extinction (AOT)

Scale |

Source | GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA



here it is zoomed up new layers for earth model
looks like a more unfavorable dust area lies ahead
Quoting 244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Wind @ Surface + Dust Extinction (AOT)

Scale |

Source | GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA



here it is zoomed up new layers for earth model
looks like a more favorable dust area lies ahead

Area of sal is moving west faster than Danny
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON INENG
5:00 AM PhST August 20 2015
=====================
Typhoon "INENG" has furthered slowed down and continues to move toward extreme northern Luzon.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ineng [GONI] (945 hPa) located at 19.0N 125.7E or 445 km east of Calayan, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: 4.1 - 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas.


Luzon Region
--------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan including Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meter


Luzon Region
----------------
1. Northern Aurora
2. Ifugao
3. Isabela
4. Mt. Province
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. Abra
8. Ilocos Norte

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Enhanced “Habagat” will bring occasional rains over the western section of Luzon and of Visayas including Metro Manila beginning today.

Sea travel is risky over the Eastern seaboard of Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11AM today.
It seems to be push a lot of the dry air out of the way. Many times these types of systems can reform a center away from the orginal. Two busts of convection and like I mentioned this morning, as well as a few others, the convection to the east really wants to join up in Danny's act. Some dry air still to the south being entrained (or is that entruned?)



Quoting 243. stormpetrol:



Nice flare up right over the center


Bet you it'll collapse like the last one did :(
OT: Rare 'fire rainbow' spotted in skies over South Carolina

Link
This is the downside of storms like this. There are people here who lack patience and like to talk in absolutes

Fact - Danny struggled today.
Fact - Danny is still a Tropical Storm with a very vigorous circulation.
Fact - Forecast still shows it hitting the Islands as a hurricane AT THIS TIME.
Fact - Recon will be out there in about a day or two.

Could the storm die? Sure, but it is also just as likely that Danny will survive and impact some land areas. To write a storm off because it struggled a bit or is not strengthening as forecast is completely ignorant and shows a lack of understanding when it comes to tropical cyclones.
Quoting 243. stormpetrol:



Nice flare up right over the center




Indeed, that's been the lil engine that could all day as this is not a fluffy innocuous June wave, this is a CV Tropical Storm biding time westbound.

In no Hurry, with TCHP ahead.....

Keep one eye on it.


Quoting 244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Wind @ Surface + Dust Extinction (AOT)

Scale |

Source | GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA



here it is zoomed up new layers for earth model
looks like a more favorable dust area lies ahead

You're looking at a computer simulation of aerosol thickness, which includes more than dust. To my knowledge, this has never been tested over the ocean. It has been tested in Asia and northern Africa and has shown to be only about 25% accurate compared to ground stations. All dry air does not show up as dust. Danny may have better or worse conditions than what's being shown.
Quoting 197. reedzone:



See? no change from last advisory.

Hey, reed. Long time no see. Just a little marital advice. If she wants to know why you spend so much time on the internet, just tell her you are working on a cure for baldness and just found out tropical systems may be the cause.

Glad to see you back.


maybe the next invest
Quoting 231. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 32m32 minutes ago
NASA GEOS-5 dust extinction shows TS #Danny eaten by Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Soon more favorable conditions

More favorable conditions for sure by it's forecast. It's been calling for that convection blob to catch up to it for days as well. Seems most reasonable as a solution.

Tomorrow, late morning eastern time by the 12Z GEOS-5 run..

254. hurricanes2018
9:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2015


Bermuda making a "bulleyes" in that orange circle


new flare up right next to the center

Not much has changed in forecast 3-5 day points have shifted more W the rest remains unchanged
However the intensity forecast has changed a little came down some

NHC has decided not to follow what the model plume for 18Z on this storm which I do have to say is probably the best thing to do till RECON flies in and data can be added to the models so models can make better sense

I don't know about anyone else, but I am seeing something going on with Danny, looks like a tight area of convection is beginning to wrap around, this could get interesting.
Quoting 243. stormpetrol:



Nice flare up right over the center

Nothing significant, just a small convective pulse like earlier today. Convection at center surely will disappear again. He is playing with us.
Quoting 227. FOREX:

Bloomberg Business ‏@business · 4m4 minutes ago
JUST IN: Weather Channel has hired Morgan Stanley, PJT to explore a sale, sources say http://bloom.bg/1EDgi47


TWC, the cable channel, is not what's being sold. it's -

"The Weather Co.’s digital businesses include The Weather Channel’s website, Weather.com, Weather Underground and Weather Services International."

according to those supposedly in the know.
..earlier

265. FOREX
Quoting 259. TeleConnectSnow:

I don't know about anyone else, but I am seeing something going on with Danny, looks like a tight area of convection is beginning to wrap around, this could get interesting.


It's just you. lol
Quoting 255. Skyepony:


More favorable conditions for sure by it's forecast. It's been calling for that convection blob to catch up to it for days as well. Seems most reasonable as a solution.

Tomorrow, late morning eastern time by the 12Z GEOS-5 run..

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there. Is Danny that 1012 mb low?
Nice microwave pass recently. Danny has a very good low level structure. You can see the inflow channels very clearly.



Quoting 228. Patrap:

Katrina-10 Years Later


Obama flying to NO for the anniversary next Saturday. I bet AF1 will pass over that landmass between it and Mobile on the trip...
Quoting 267. Michfan:

Nice microwave pass recently. Danny has a very good low level structure. You can see the inflow channels very clearly.







i think that low level structure is what will save him imho
Quoting 266. sar2401:

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there. Is Danny that 1012 mb low?

Yes
That is an unbelievable satellite picture of those 2 typhoons in the intro to the blog!! Truly epic!
Quoting 252. sar2401:

You're looking at a computer simulation of aerosol thickness, which includes more than dust. To my knowledge, this has never been tested over the ocean. It has been tested in Asia and northern Africa and has shown to be only about 25% accurate compared to ground stations. All dry air does not show up as dust. Danny may have better or worse conditions than what's being shown.

hence why I said new layers
they are off likely it is only up and running short while on earth model program
weathertap doing same thing in beta I have been checking it out
but I find its not a defined look
guess it will be eventually needs to be tuned I guess
I like the idea of the global information even if only guidance worthy
Quoting 263. sar2401:

TWC, the cable channel, is not what's being sold. it's -

"The Weather Co.’s digital businesses include The Weather Channel’s website, Weather.com, Weather Underground and Weather Services International."

according to those supposedly in the know.


I f Fox buys them would that mean no more "rules of the road"?
Quoting 270. juracanpr1:


Yes


1012 is the outer isobar, pressure would be lower than that. I never really look at forecast models for intensity all that much anyway
Quoting 267. Michfan:

Nice microwave pass recently. Danny has a very good low level structure. You can see the inflow channels very clearly.






yes, system is very healthy at the surface, which is why I think this will survive for awhile
Quoting 241. Sandcat:

Thank you very much sar for the explanation.
You're welcome. Along about Tuesday, we'll all know what really happened. I've been watching tropical storms long enough to learn obsessing over them when they are thousands of miles from landfall not only made me nuts but, most of the time, it didn't work out like I thought anyway.
Sun's up over Atsani.



look at tropical storm danny
Quoting 258. wunderkidcayman:

Not much has changed in forecast 3-5 day points have shifted more W the rest remains unchanged
However the intensity forecast has changed a little came down some

NHC has decided not to follow what the model plume for 18Z on this storm which I do have to say is probably the best thing to do till RECON flies in and data can be added to the models so models can make better sense



Danny is pulling more WNW now for sure!
Quoting 274. Hurricanes101:



1012 is the outer isobar, pressure would be lower than that. I never really look at forecast models for intensity all that much anyway
Nor do I, but a 1012 mb, even as an outer isobar, doesn't seem consistent with a 1000 mb storm.
Quoting 273. SunnyDaysFla:



I f Fox buys them would that mean no more "rules of the road"?
LOL. If a sale happens, you can bet things won't be the same here one way or another. One of the reasons Classic got dumped was to prune the deadwood and make WU look better to a prospective buyer. No one is going to buy TWC's digital business without a plan to monetize it.
Nice flare-up over the center:



Should see increased convection over the next few hours now Dmin is over and it approaches Dmax.
CDO forming? Honestly, this thing is about to take off right now..IMO. Let's see what happens over the next hours.
Good evening, all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video update on Tropical Storm Danny:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 19th, 2015
Quoting 280. sar2401:

Nor do I, but a 1012 mb, even as an outer isobar, doesn't seem consistent with a 1000 mb storm.

But if the model consider a weaker cyclone at that position?
Quoting 272. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hence why I said new layers
they are off likely it is only up and running short while on earth model program
weathertap doing same thing in beta I have been checking it out
but I find its not a defined look
guess it will be eventually needs to be tuned I guess
I like the idea of the global information even if only guidance worthy
I was more reacting to Ryan Maue's statement about the dust extinction simulation showing Danny being "eaten" by SAL and saying it showed more favorable conditions ahead. Based on that simulation, it shows exactly the opposite.
Quoting 277. TimSoCal:

Sun's up over Atsani.




Sigh, eight years. Eight long years
Quoting 270. juracanpr1:


Yes
no is not
Quoting 268. win1gamegiantsplease:



Obama flying to NO for the anniversary next Saturday. I bet AF1 will pass over that landmass between it and Mobile on the trip...
That's a waste of jet fuel!
Quoting 285. Levi32:

Good evening, all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video update on Tropical Storm Danny:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 19th, 2015
Thank you, Levi. Excellent analysis as usual.
Quoting 284. hurricanes2018:


And most of them have a cat1 hurricane close to the islands.
293. JRRP
as we expect more south this run
Quoting 282. Envoirment:

Nice flare-up over the center:



Should see increased convection over the next few hours now Dmin is over and it approaches Dmax.


Funny I thought Dmin was just in full swing/Dmax won't be til about 3-4am out there unless I'm wrong!
Quoting 194. juracanpr1:


The blog could become slower tonight, and with a good reason: our guy (Danny) is agonizing. Tomorrow it could be worst (may have just a TD)

Based on what? The NHC is not forecasting that.
Quoting 293. JRRP:

as we expect more south this run





Also showing two more systems behind Danny. In the next 2-3 days we may see the NHC highlight these areas with the GFS/Euro showing an active wave train. Might see 3-4 storms before the end of August is through (including Danny)!
Quoting 294. stormpetrol:



Funny I thought Dmin was just in full swing/Dmax won't be til about 3-4am out there unless I'm wrong!
about 330 4 edt the sky starts to lighten up with first light over danny
Quoting 267. Michfan:

Nice microwave pass recently. Danny has a very good low level structure. You can see the inflow channels very clearly.






They weren't lying when they said it was going to be a small system. Wow! Probably the size of Atsani's eye.
Small little fella.. Could tighten up really quickly though, however.
Quoting 268. win1gamegiantsplease:



Obama flying to NO for the anniversary next Saturday. I bet AF1 will pass over that landmass between it and Mobile on the trip...
You mean where there was actual hurricane damage compared to a mostly human caused flood?
Yep
Quoting 301. Gearsts:

Yep

are three storms moving west
Quoting 294. stormpetrol:



Funny I thought Dmin was just in full swing/Dmax won't be til about 3-4am out there unless I'm wrong!


Dmin is over now, the sun's set over Danny. And ye, Dmax is around 4-5am just before sunrise. The atmosphere should cool off a bit, allowing for thunderstorms to pop off in and around Danny. I'm hopeful that Danny can strengthen decently so it doesn't faulter through as it approaches the islands. They could really use rain and it would be rather horrid if it just dissipated.
Quoting 285. Levi32:

Good evening, all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video update on Tropical Storm Danny:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 19th, 2015


Thanks for another great analysis.
Good evening weather friends and foes...



i guess in five days from now the national hurricane center maybe adding x's to the map
Thanks Levi. If you are still lurking, has WU asked you to be a part of WU TV?
309. JRRP
Quoting 296. Envoirment:





Also showing two more systems behind Danny. In the next 2-3 days we may see the NHC highlight these areas with the GFS/Euro showing an active wave train. Might see 3-4 storms before the end of August is through (including Danny)!

I will not be surprise if we see yellow collor near CV tonight or early morning
Quoting 273. SunnyDaysFla:



I f Fox buys them would that mean no more "rules of the road"?

If Fox buys Wunderground we're doomed!
Quoting 309. JRRP:


I will not be surprise if we see yellow collor near CV tonight or early morning


We might see the Atlantic covered in a lot of Crayon, something we haven't see in a while!
Quoting 294. stormpetrol:



Funny I thought Dmin was just in full swing/Dmax won't be til about 3-4am out there unless I'm wrong!
DMin is generally 2:00 pm to 7:00 pm. DMax is from about midnight to 6:00 am. All these are local times. The time zone for Danny now is two hours ahead of Eastern, but that's EDT. EST is about 5:30 now, so sun time over Danny is about 7:30, so DMin just ended. It doesn't really shut off like a time clock, but conditions are more neutral now until the air temperature gets closer to the water temperature.
Danny beginning to get its act together.
Danny coulda been a contender, but he's a dead-ender, as has been the case for just about every Cape Verde storm in the past 2 or 3 years.  The sand is sucking the life out of him.
315. FOREX
Quoting 310. Chicklit:


If Fox buys Wunderground we're doomed!
careful, I made a very light-hearted political statement yesterday and was banned.
at 108 hours the 18z Navgem run is following the NHC path as indicated in its 5pm update..

Quoting 310. Chicklit:


If Fox buys Wunderground we're doomed!

oh dear god no... would get bad weather reports..... overhyped situations...wrong models....
319. JRRP
Danny???..... still alive ???
Quoting 316. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Danny finally doing something.
3 simultaneous storms in an El Nino year? We couldn't even get that with La Nina past several years. Be like 2004 all over again. Hummm
Quoting 300. sar2401:

You mean where there was actual hurricane damage compared to a mostly human caused flood?


I can still remember watching news reporters on the ground in New Orleans saying the city had escaped major damage from the storm.
18z GFS wants this thing to enter the GOM..once again, probably won't happen, but this run might show a beast.
Quoting 312. sar2401:

DMin is generally 2:00 pm to 7:00 pm. DMax is from about midnight to 6:00 am. All these are local times. The time zone for Danny now is two hours ahead of Eastern, but that's EDT. EST is about 5:30 now, so sun time over Danny is about 7:30, so DMin just ended. It doesn't really shut off like a time clock, but conditions are more neutral now until the air temperature gets closer to the water temperature.


Whose on first?
Refueling...lol
327. JRRP
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2 minHace 2 minutos Ver traducción
18Z GFS is a best case scenario w/ #Danny - not very strong & near #puertorico to help ease the #drought !
but starts to pull more north of the last forecast point

132 hours


Quoting 310. Chicklit:


If Fox buys Wunderground we're doomed!


If that happened, we should all lean on Levi to open a blogosphere on his website. ;)
GFS....198 hours..Brings right over PR, then the DR and then Cuba. Ouch.

Well...I'd say those high clouds streaming off to the north ain't outflow, boys and girls. And let us not forget the amazing, unpredictable influence of the great storm killer El Niño...which will be heard from. Just my .02
Thanks Levi, for your tropical analysis. I saw all the scenarios clearly
333. JRRP
Quoting 331. Look2thesky:

Well...I'd say those high clouds streaming off to the north ain't outflow, boys and girls. And let us not forget the amazing, unpredictable influence of the great storm killer El Niño...which will be heard from. Just my .02


Sure looks like outflow to me
335. FOREX
Quoting 324. TeleConnectSnow:

18z GFS wants this thing to enter the GOM..once again, probably won't happen, but this run might show a beast.

Better chance at getting into the Gulf of Alaska.
Danny has some obstacles, but cannot be counted as done at this stage.
337. MahFL
Well some pretty cold cloud tops now :


You guys had a problem when you heard TWC was buying Weather underground..you threaten to leave then..guess what you still here..

you will be here still if there are new owners as well..

its called change..its happens in life..
stronger=poleward
week=Westward
Quoting 335. FOREX:


Better chance at getting into the Gulf of Alaska.


Um, no
156 hours

18z takes Danny over every possible landmass (Puerto Rico, Haiti/D.R. and then Cuba). Looks familiar
And watch Danny still become a Hurricane tonight
the GFS 18z runs must have have a bias for Florida/GOM..
Quoting 285. Levi32:

Good evening, all.

For those interested, I've posted a new video update on Tropical Storm Danny:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 19th, 2015


What's up Levi! Great to see ya here!!
Danny making a comeback! danny making a comeback!
348. TXCWC
Quoting 324. TeleConnectSnow:

18z GFS wants this thing to enter the GOM..once again, probably won't happen, but this run might show a beast.


See post# 141, pg 5 :) ...not out of the question
GFS most likely is just playing games with Danny and wants a strong cane in the GOM..all we take from this run is it still shows strengthening to some regards.
Quoting 323. Sfloridacat5:



I can still remember watching news reporters on the ground in New Orleans saying the city had escaped major damage from the storm.
That's what everyone thought. FEMA had urban search and rescue teams from all over the country on standby for New Orleans. Almost all of them got redirected to the Gulf Coast when it appeared New Orleans wouldn't have major damage. Once the levees burst, they then had to scramble to get some of those teams back. It got even worse when it became apparent that NOPD was no longer in control of the city. FEMA then had to generate a massive police response in 24 hours. FEMA did not do a sterling job, but the challenges were a lot bigger than many people realize.
Quoting 319. JRRP:

Danny???..... still alive ???

As far as I can remember the full name for Danny is Daniel, he went into the lions den so to speak and came out smiling.
353. TXCWC
Quoting 349. TeleConnectSnow:

GFS most likely is just playing games with Danny and wants a strong cane in the GOM..all we take from this run is it still shows strengthening to some regards.


It's actually come closer to the GEM and EURO in terms of track location in the long term...again post#141 :)
18z Navgem..

Last Frame

355. Siker
18z GFS hits Panama City at 288 hours as some sort of cane. Everyone got your Twinkie supply stocked?
Is that an "Eye" :-b

. Michelle Schlachta , Community Manager (Admin)

3:20 AM GMT on August 19, 2015

Hey all, just a note: we need to keep non-relevant images/animations out of the blog. Please post accordingly. TIA.


who wake up tropical storm danny i see new t.storms in the center
Quoting 294. stormpetrol:



Funny I thought Dmin was just in full swing/Dmax won't be til about 3-4am out there unless I'm wrong!


Not bad to be honest

Looking at it is put the centre near 11.5N 42.2W moving N of Due W maybe WNW it did wobble WNW for a bit earlier but it seems to have levelled W again anyway a gentle smooth W-WNW movement for now IMO
Quoting 148. 882MB:

Incredible satellite loop of these 2 monsters in the W-PAC.




If I were someone in Taiwan I would nervous because of what happened last week. And just very nervous in general


here we go!!
Danny's Doomed, way too much SAL,DRY AIR, and SHEAR ahead- oh well- that's just the way it is- maybe next year- one can only hope
Quoting 359. whitewabit:

. Michelle Schlachta , Community Manager (Admin)

3:20 AM GMT on August 19, 2015

Hey all, just a note: we need to keep non-relevant images/animations out of the blog. Please post accordingly. TIA.


sorry ma'am. It was referring to Katrina and twc however.

goodnight all, best of luck to dan
Goes to show you the GFS will keep changing solutions.
367. FOREX
Quoting 355. Siker:

18z GFS hits Panama City at 288 hours as some sort of cane. Everyone got your Twinkie supply stocked?
I live in Panama City Beach. Danny will never make it over all those Islands and the terrain. Not worried.
GFS 276hrs out looks to be heading towards the Panhandle of Florida
Quoting 363. hurricanes2018:



here we go!!


You literally said a few posts back, Danny is done and is weak...make up your mind man.
Quoting 355. Siker:

18z GFS hits Panama City at 288 hours as some sort of cane. Everyone got your Twinkie supply stocked?


288 hours out is pretty far out, not saying the storm won't hit there, but that's way too far out to be really dependable.
Danny looking a little better this evening. Let's see if it can develop a decent CDO with banding features. Structure is there, just needs thunderstorms.
tilt your head to the side and you see Danny coming into view..

12z UKMET



Quoting 367. FOREX:

I live in Panama City Beach. Danny will never make it over all those Islands and the terrain. Not worried.


Never say never. that is the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to tropical weather.

See Ts Fay in 2008
Hey hey!! I see GFS is starting to get a handle on Danny now about time

It hasn't got it just right but it's much more improved than the last few runs

Quoting 181. weathermanwannabe:

NHC is still calling for a hurricane on Friday:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


That's looking pretty good for the areas around Puerto Rico in the drought. Any thoughts on where it might be in in the timeframe when it would reach PR if it went there?
Quoting 369. TeleConnectSnow:



You literally said a few posts back, Danny is done and is weak...make up your mind man.

glad you noticed this as well.... like someone stated earlier persons who comment here run mostly on emotion than science data and facts.... lol cant blame them and he isnt the fist person today to switch
I still say E coast system will lift out sooner and Atlantic ridge will rebuild quick and stronger and Danny moves further S and W and stronger Danny in the Caribbean too
Quoting 370. WeatherBAC:



288 hours out is pretty far out, not saying the storm won't hit there, but that's way too far out to be really dependable.
Yep, 12 days out.
379. 7544
Quoting 374. wunderkidcayman:

Hey hey!! I see GFS is starting to get a handle on Danny now about time

It hasn't got it just right but it's much more improved than the last few runs



.
yep not ots this run new run latter it will prob show landfall on se florida over grooo!
Quoting 373. Hurricanes101:



Never say never. that is the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to tropical weather


I would phrase it better by saying it would have a hard time making it over all that terrain INTACT..that would be one lucky path if it came in like that..
381. FOREX
Quoting 373. Hurricanes101:



Never say never. that is the biggest mistake most people make when it comes to tropical weather.

See Ts Fay in 2008
Actually, I was just yapping. I want it to come here.
wall of shear forms in front of danny (Movie)

00z run will have it going in Texas..thats how much flip flop the GFS does..
I really am amazed. The difference between just one run. Can't wait to see the 00Z when I wake up tomorrow morning.

12Z...



18Z...

The next 36 to 48 hours will be critical for Tropical Storm Danny. The fact that the storm is already struggling with dry air does not bode well, but there's still time for it to reorganize. As Levi said, if Danny doesn't change much in strength before leaving the safe haven of the monsoon trough, it really doesn't stand a chance against accelerating surface trades, increasing shear, and a bone-dry airmass.
Quoting 382. serialteg:

wall of shear forms in front of danny (Movie




Shear is moving ahead of the system. I do not think shear will be an issue with this system
Quoting 384. GeoffreyWPB:

I really am amazed. The difference between just one run. Can't wait to see the 00Z when I wake up tomorrow morning.

12Z...



18Z...


Probably will have changed again, I would take anything it shows at this point with a grain of salt.
Wayyyy Before this year's hurricane season, some on here said some model showed DANNY making landfall in south Florida around late August, as a potential cat 2 hurricane. Do you guys remember this????
Quoting 375. Trouper415:



That's looking pretty good for the areas around Puerto Rico in the drought. Any thoughts on where it might be in in the timeframe when it would reach PR if it went there?

I yet think it wont reach PR, it will go NE, if it survives as healthy
Quoting 359. whitewabit:

. Michelle Schlachta , Community Manager (Admin)

3:20 AM GMT on August 19, 2015

Hey all, just a note: we need to keep non-relevant images/animations out of the blog. Please post accordingly. TIA.


Remember, we go primetime on the Weather Channel this Monday!
Quoting 377. wunderkidcayman:

I still say E coast system will lift out sooner and Atlantic ridge will rebuild quick and stronger and Danny moves further S and W and stronger Danny in the Caribbean too


So do you think it will reach the NW Caribbean?
burst of convective cloud cover over COC here

Quoting 387. Climate175:

Probably will have changed again, I would take anything it shows at this point with a grain of salt.


You have to admit Climate, that's a heck of a flip...and I take that run with a quarter of a grain of salt.
GFS forecast from Aug 9 for today. That's why anything still in the 200 hr range is not useful at this point.
395. MahFL
Very moist convection :

Quoting 345. ncstorm:

the GFS 18z runs must have have a bias for Florida/GOM..
unless there is consistency I don't believe it......
Quoting 386. Hurricanes101:



Shear is moving ahead of the system. I do not think shear will be an issue with this system


i know, but watch the movie on cimss, see how the wall forms. i've been watching it for a couple of days now.
Quoting 394. Climate175:

GFS forecast from Aug 9 for today. That's why anything still in the 200 hr range is not useful at this point.


Thats actually not far off lol
still just a shadow of what it was yesterday... such has been the case of so many a hurrcane season lately..

Quoting 395. MahFL:

Very moist convection :




Quoting 385. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The next 36 to 48 hours will be critical for Tropical Storm Danny. The fact that the storm is already struggling with dry air does not bode well, but there's still time for it to reorganize. As Levi said, if Danny doesn't change much in strength before leaving the safe haven of the monsoon trough, it really doesn't stand a chance against accelerating surface trades, increasing shear, and a bone-dry airmass.


i think that SAL / dry air and the shear ahead of it will ... make conditions less favorable lol
Quoting 360. hurricanes2018:



who wake up tropical storm danny i see new t.storms in the center
Hey, just doing what he have to do. Needs to regain some strength , so that by Friday he'll reach category one, and tried to approach the islands after receiving the wind shear blow, as a decent 70mph, TS storm, at least....It will be highly appreciated..
Quoting 398. Hurricanes101:



Thats actually not far off lol
I did say before that the long range GFS did good at showing a time frame of when and where a storm may form, but the exact details can't be determined at the 200 hr period.
Starting to look better now:



Will hopefully continue to expand its convection as the night goes on.
Oh Danny Boy ! Don't call it a comeback. Convection firing for the timid swirl of nature.
405. ackee
Which model as performed the best on Danny so far ???

A Euro
B Hwrf
C Gfs
D cmc
Ol Danny boy is going to run into some problems soon. I see the models have shifted west. They'll move farther west showing a TX landfall and then back east out to sea. Everyone knows it's a wait and see game now. I really hope that if he manages to fight off the shear and dry air to survive and come in the gulf, that he's just a minimal TS.


OH by the way I am an old blogger with a new name. Don't ban me again I'm not a troll. I posted the lyrics for Oh Danny Boy last night and was banned....
18z HWRF has finally come around. Much weaker this run. Writing's on the wall for poor Danny. He should be able to strengthen a little in the next 48 hours, but it's just not a good year to be a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. None of this should come as a huge shock. Hopefully something is left in terms of rainfall when it gets towards the Caribbean.

Quoting 391. Bucsboltsfan:



So do you think it will reach the NW Caribbean?


Hmm it might but I have to stress it's too early to say for sure
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system is expected to form over the western Atlantic in the vicinity
of Bermuda during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only somewhat favorable for
subsequent tropical or subtropical development of this system over
the weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 403. Envoirment:

Starting to look better now:



Will hopefully continue to expand its convection as the night goes on.

I doubt it very much
Quoting 388. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Wayyyy Before this year's hurricane season, some on here said some model showed DANNY making landfall in south Florida around late August, as a potential cat 2 hurricane. Do you guys remember this????


nope but would love to find it though
Quoting 403. Envoirment:

Starting to look better now:



Will hopefully continue to expand its convection as the night goes on.


Looks like it's on it's way, big E.
Quoting 338. ncstorm:

You guys had a problem when you heard TWC was buying Weather underground..you threaten to leave then..guess what you still here..

you will be here still if there are new owners as well..

its called change..its happens in life..

No, I won't.  And I pay my freight here.  Been a paying member (under another nom previously) since 2003. 
Quoting 408. FOREX:

flagged


I think I might have broken my flag button
Quoting 405. ackee:

Which model as performed the best on Danny so far ???

A Euro
B Hwrf
C Gfs
D cmc


Looks like the GFS


I don't expect this to be a big deal, but the forecast discussion from the Taunton, MA NWS office was interesting regarding the potential Bermuda system.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA. NHC HAS A 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY THAT THIS LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. IT IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHWEST...PERHAPS AS FAR
AS 70W ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND
PASSING TO THE EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME.

THE GFS DEPICTS A VERY PRONOUNCED MOISTURE PLUME...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.10 INCHES AND CORRESPONDING K
INDICES NEAR 36...STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MA ON
SUNDAY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THUS HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE.
THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST BECAUSE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW
DOES STRENGTHEN...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE WHICH WOULD REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS.

ANOTHER IMPACT OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS THAT THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FACING
SHORELINES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE AFTERNOON MODEL DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION WARNED THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC SETUP BEARS
SOME VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO MID OCTOBER 2005 BUT WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FARTHER
OFFSHORE IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER...ONE MAY RECALL THAT THE 2005
EVENT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN PARTS OF EASTERN MA.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING THIS. IN ORDER FOR THAT TYPE OF EVENT TO
OCCUR...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD NEED TO DIRECTLY
INTERACT WITH A LOW THAT IS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
419. FOREX
Quoting 411. juracanpr1:


I doubt it very much
You have been very negative all day towards Danny but spend hours making comments. Your right to do so, but feel bad for you.
I am offshore in the GOMEX. We have started the paperwork part of our evacuation procedures. Right now our plan is calling to start evacuations 250 hours from now if we in fact do have to evacuate.

New wave coming off soon.
Quoting 420. SpudsMacKenzie:

I am offshore in the GOMEX. We have started the paperwork part of our evacuation procedures. Right now our plan is calling to start evacuations 250 hours from now if we in fact do have to evacuate.


now that escalated quickly
Quoting 374. wunderkidcayman:

Hey hey!! I see GFS is starting to get a handle on Danny now about time

It hasn't got it just right but it's much more improved than the last few runs


Just right? It shows it hitting the Panhandle and then Alabama. That's a pretty big change from straight west to the western Caribbean. The GFS is a little psychotic on this one.
Quoting 423. sar2401:

Just right? It shows it hitting the Panhandle and then Alabama. That's a pretty big change from straight west to the western Caribbean. The GFS is a little psychotic on this one.


I would like to know, as it were, what is "just right?"
Quoting 422. serialteg:



now that escalated quickly
That's over 10 days. I don't think you can call that a quick escalation.
Quoting 253. Grothar:



Hey Gro!!
Been busy with work and raising my new family. I'm married, and have one step daughter and a newborn. Although I visit this blog everyday and lurk. Good to see some old members still here.
Quoting 424. nash36:



I would like to know, as it were, what is "just right?"

I can guess, but then I'd get flagged...
When I was on Hercules-21 for Chevron, they don't play with CV spinners. When the word comes to Bug out the Rigs, all hands are on deck to secure the rig/platform, Then transportation is made ready and implemented as it takes all of PHI and the other Helo Groups and Company/Supply Boats to evacuate those Men and women,safely.

Bugging out for Gustav,August 2008

Air Logistic's Helo





Every half hour expanding convection
Three-C expected peak of 100 mph, at least according to this first advisory.