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Danny disorganized, but generating strong winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look disorganized this morning. The low level circulation center is exposed to view, with the heaviest thunderstorms lying several hundred miles east of the center. The center has undergone several relocations over the past 12 hours, and may do so yet again this morning, in order to position itself nearer to the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Despite its disorganization, Danny continues to generate strong winds, with the Hurricane Hunters and QuikSCAT both reporting winds in the 55 - 60 mph range early this morning. There is plenty of dry air in Danny's vicinity interfering with development, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danny showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east.

The intensity forecast for Danny
The upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized has weakened and separated from the storm, leaving Danny in a region with moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and a modest amount of dry air. These environmental conditions will remain roughly constant through Friday night. Slow to moderate strengthening of Danny to a Category 1 hurricane should result, and is called for by all of the reliable intensity models. By Friday night, a trough of low pressure will approach the U.S. East Coast and bring high wind shear of 20 - 35 knots through Saturday. Danny will be close enough to this trough that the trough may be able to feed energy to Danny as the trough converts Danny to an extratropical storm. As a result, Danny may not weaken as fast as one might ordinarily expect, given the high levels of wind shear expected on Saturday. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia with 55 - 75 mph winds is a good bet.


Figure 2. Performance of the main models used to forecast Hurricane Bill. Forecasts for the time periods 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours are shown, with the track errors for each models' forecasts in nautical miles (nm). The statistics are shown for the regular interpolated version of the models used by the NHC forecasters in real time to make their forecasts. The "Consensus" model is the NHC's TVCN consensus, which is the average of at least two of the other models shown here (but not including the Canadian model). The Canadian model had the best performance of any model for Bill, surpassing even the Official NHC forecast. The next best performing models were the GFDL and GFS. Last year's best performing model, the European Center model, was not available for this analysis. Image credit: Dr. Jim Goerss, Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The track forecast for Danny
Wunderground provides a computer models plot showing the hurricane track forecasts of most of the major models used by NHC to formulate their official forecast (one notable exception: we can't show the European Center ECMWF model, since this model is not freely available). One of the most frequently asked questions I get is, "which model do you trust?" This morning we have several models like the NOGAPS and Canadian calling for Danny to pass very near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, then over Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The rest of the models foresee Danny missing Cape Hatteras, and continuing on to an encounter with Nova Scotia instead of Cape Cod. According the 2008 NHC forecast verification report, the best performing model during the 2008 hurricane season was the European Model (ECMWF), by a wide margin. The ECMWF out-performed the official NHC forecast, and it is very rare for an individual model to do this. The next best models were the GFDL and HWRF, while the NOGAPS, UKMET, and GFDN did the worst of the major models. The Canadian model was not analyzed, but historically has been among the worst of the models for forecasting hurricanes.

So far this year, the ECMWF has also done well. Unfortunately, the European Center group does not make the output of their hurricane tracking module publicly available, so I cannot present any statistics of their model's performance. Somewhat surprisingly, the Canadian model has also done very well this year. The model received a major upgrade in its physics of the past year, and has performed extremely well in hurricane track forecasts for both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic so far this year. In fact, for Hurricane Bill, the Canadian model gave better track forecasts then the NHC did (Figure 2). Danny is a different storm than Bill, and it is possible that the Canadian model will do less well with a storm that is disorganized, like Danny is. Nevertheless, with the Canadian model consistently keeping a Danny's track close to Cape Hatteras and going over southeastern Massachusetts, residents of these areas need to be prepared for possible hurricane conditions from Danny. Given the recent reformation of Danny's center, and the possibility of yet another reformation later today, all of the track models must be viewed with more than the usual amount of doubt. Since the center reformations have been moving Danny's center to the north and east, it may be that the Canadian model's prediction lies too close to the U.S. coast.

For those of you wondering about specific probabilities of getting tropical storm force or hurricane force winds, consult the NHC Wind Probability Product. The 11 am EDT NHC forecast gave Cape Hatteras a 4% chance of seeing hurricane force winds from Danny, and Nantucket, MA, a 7% chance.

For more information on computer models used by NHC
Basics of hurricane forecast models (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NHC, updated 2009)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NOAA/AOML)


Figure 3. Tropical wave 94L off the coast of Africa.

Invest 94L off the coast of Africa
A well-organized tropical wave lies a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, near the coast of Africa. This wave was designated 94L by NHC this morning. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect some slow development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. This system is moving rather slowly, 10 - 15 mph, and it will be at least a week before it approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. The GFS model develops 94L into a tropical depression early next week.

Special note on using the Canadian model
While the Canadian model has been doing well with hurricane track forecasts this year, the model still does a poor job forecasting the genesis of new tropical cyclones. The Canadian model has a false alarm rate perhaps three times higher than any other model, so one should not believe the Canadian model's regular predictions of new tropical cyclones springing up. You can access output from the Canadian model at Environment Canada or at Florida State University or Penn State.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Back from lunch and boy do I have a lot to say...


First off, in regards to the question of lightning and hurricanes:


Within a typical thunderstorm over land, area of strong updrafts and strong downdrafts are small and are in close proximity. Ice particles within the storm bumb into each other, leading to charge separation and the upper portions of a storm becomes a different polarity than the lower portions of the cloud. Lightning then occurs either within the cloud or between the cloud and the ground based on the charges built up.


Within a hurricane, regions of strong updrafts and strong downdraft are much larger in size. Alternating large regions of the storm (eyewall for instance) head upward and downward.

The fact that these regions ARE so broad is what allow hurricane hunters to fly into intense hurricane. Airplanes cannot safely fly into the core of intense thunderstorms and try to avoid this whenever possible...

The broader areas of updrafts and downdrafts leads to less ice particle collision and preferential separation within a hurricane. No charge separation = no lightning.

Now in the rain bands in the periphery of the hurricane, individual storms have the charateristics that allow lightning to form - and is why folks have reported seeing lightning with rainbands but not usually with the hurricane itself.


One final note to complicate things... Sometime within the hurricane, small areas of very strong rotation (mesocyclones) can form causing supercell like structures to rotate around the eye or inner structure of the storm. These areas cause localized (small) areas of intense vertical motion - more like a normal thundestorm over land - and can cause lightning!
Cross Section of a Hurricane
K8...SJ's around...he'll turn nup...
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Funny to see the same ole "faces" jumping in on an argument by someone else


probly what you just did as well
not at all dear, i didnt slam anybody, just stated a fact. there it is.
Be interesting to see what the NHC has to say in the next discussion. Am anxiously awaiting it.
How would you like to be in SE Virginia we always get crammed up in there with the Carolinas and we are not a Carolina at all.
Quoting DestinJeff:


looks at least like a MLC due east of last reported LLC


could be since its not vertically stacked at all
anyone who doesn't get that I'm pokin' fun at MYSELF hasn't been payin' attention...
One other thing to chomp on. Highest winds (Stronger Circulation) were in the lower levels. Could it be that as conditions improve your looking at a better defined MLC of an unstacked system. What level were the HH flying when they caught the new wind shift?
OSUWXGUY-

hey, what is your take on a possible new llc forming?
Were having some squally weather here in Mobile AL.
SYNOPSIS FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM-
1029 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM DANNY WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS AS IT RECURVES AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SWELLS GENERATED BY DANNY WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING DANNY. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

Actually, swells will be present through Sunday, the more west it goes, the bigger and longer it will be. And if it intensifies, could be another major swell event. But Danny is no Bill, Bill was a once in ten year event for Florida.
There is no New LLC to the east... its just Thunderstorms building south along feeder bands with shearing cloud tops blowing to the east..

Danny is stuck between ridges and upper lows.....eventually the upper low to its west will start to pull Danny NNW later this evening... then north on Friday nearing the outerbanks by later in the day!

There still is cold air in this system..and it wont be totally tropical all the way to N.E... more of a Nor-easter.. still Hurricane watches will probably go up for the caronlinas this evening or tonight @ 11pm and for N.E. on Friday!
That could also be causing the stall as Danny try's to pull himself together.
Looks like the old COC is weakening and being replaced by one due east...
Quoting presslord:
anyone who doesn't get that I'm pokin' fun at MYSELF hasn't been payin' attention...


You don't have that type of sence of humor......LOL....sorta like buying American and not Canadaian!.....ROFLMAO
94L still looking good
1 COC @71deg 1 COC@73.3 both @27.5N
hey press i'm in myrtle beach,are we safe
Quoting btwntx08:
94L still looking good


Yes it does, and as soon as we get rid of ole Danny Boy, I will turn my attention to that west-tracker. Hope there are more troughs in the east coasts' near future.
good afternoon all,

looks danny is in a tired of the beating from the sheer, not moving yet..
Quoting presslord:
anyone who doesn't get that I'm pokin' fun at MYSELF hasn't been payin' attention...


I got it... Back to the no one gets sarcasm anymore...

NHC says Danny is moving NW because that is way the see it. They stated it was going due west at 310 degrees, which is NOT DUE WEST.

Anyways, I have faith that they will change the cone of death and destruction when and IF warranted.
Quoting groundswell:
SYNOPSIS FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM-
1029 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM DANNY WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS AS IT RECURVES AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SWELLS GENERATED BY DANNY WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING DANNY. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

Actually, swells will be present through Sunday, the more west it goes, the bigger and longer it will be. And if it intensifies, could be another major swell event. But Danny is no Bill, Bill was a once in ten year event for Florida.


I don't know about that...what about Bertha last year?? Her swells and waves were bigger here in Central FL than Bills were.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
One other thing to chomp on. Highest winds (Stronger Circulation) were in the lower levels. Could it be that as conditions improve your looking at a better defined MLC of an unstacked system. What level were the HH flying when they caught the new wind shift?


about 25,000ft
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Yes it does, and as soon as we get rid of ole Danny Boy, I will turn my attention to that west-tracker. Hope there are more troughs in the east coasts' near future.

no more troughs for more than a week ike mention that a more westward trend in this system
Quoting presslord:
anyone who doesn't get that I'm pokin' fun at MYSELF hasn't been payin' attention...


dont sweat it Press
we know ya love the carolinas LOL
Not sure which they want to plot from, but this storm is tilted way to the right. The center still is not stacking up to any degree. In fact the LLC is actually moving W with some southern movement. However, the ULC or what appears to be it, looks to have stalled or moved a bit north. So I'm starting to wonder if the LLC has been ejected and there is a new LLC forming under the deepest storms. If you look at some of the last frames of the visible sat there's a change in direction of the lower clouds instead of the steady march towards the LLC they seem to have stopped and started moving north under the bigger storms.
IKE - I just love that HWRF track for 94L.. Chances of it going that way?

1 COC @71deg 1 COC@73.3 both @27.5N

sound right?
Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF on 94L....


That turn to the north would be nice.
what is with the white tube like clouds surrounding the convection? link
Quoting TampaSpin:


You don't have that type of sence of humor......LOL....sorta like buying American and not Canadaian!.....ROFLMAO

????
Ok... Now you are stepping on my soap box.
'Buy Local' saves energy, promotes the local economy etc.
On my blog, I have listed products made in the Americas - plural. Not just USA goods, It is not USA vs. Canada vs Trinidad & Tobago. It is about buying local, supporting your local economy - and if you can't buy local, then buy from your friends.

Don't do drugs - do not eat imported shrimp
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Back from lunch and boy do I have a lot to say...


First off, in regards to the question of lightning and hurricanes:


Within a typical thunderstorm over land, area of strong updrafts and strong downdrafts are small and are in close proximity. Ice particles within the storm bumb into each other, leading to charge separation and the upper portions of a storm becomes a different polarity than the lower portions of the cloud. Lightning then occurs either within the cloud or between the cloud and the ground based on the charges built up.


Within a hurricane, regions of strong updrafts and strong downdraft are much larger in size. Alternating large regions of the storm (eyewall for instance) head upward and downward.

The fact that these regions ARE so broad is what allow hurricane hunters to fly into intense hurricane. Airplanes cannot safely fly into the core of intense thunderstorms and try to avoid this whenever possible...

The broader areas of updrafts and downdrafts leads to less ice particle collision and preferential separation within a hurricane. No charge separation = no lightning.

Now in the rain bands in the periphery of the hurricane, individual storms have the charateristics that allow lightning to form - and is why folks have reported seeing lightning with rainbands but not usually with the hurricane itself.


One final note to complicate things... Sometime within the hurricane, small areas of very strong rotation (mesocyclones) can form causing supercell like structures to rotate around the eye or inner structure of the storm. These areas cause localized (small) areas of intense vertical motion - more like a normal thundestorm over land - and can cause lightning!
Cross Section of a Hurricane


Thx OSU...
Question?

I saw on the blog this morning that someone said the NHC updates were hours in the making, so will the 2:00 update reflect what the HH find?
Quoting KEHCharleston:

????
Ok... 'Buy Local' is my bandwagon! Saves energy, promotes the local economy etc.
On my blog, I have listed products made in the Americas - plural. It is not about USA goods vs. Canadian goods vs Trinidad & Tobago goods. It is about buying local, and if you can't buy local buy from your friends.

Don't do drugs - do not eat imported shrimp


Too late :-)
-
As a 7th generaton North Carolinian, I understand where this is coming from...especially those from South Carolina, who have a sometimes secret/sometimes not so secret loathing of North Carolina. However, as a BBQ man, our "Carolina" culture is quite clearly broken into three completely different sections...Western North Carolina...Eastern North Carolina...and South Carolina...None of them like each other much, and if you include football, then you break it into 4 cultures and divide South Carolina up into Clemson vs. South Carolina. Those people are SERIOUS about distinctions. It's a wonderful place to live, but you got to know who is what, and what means what...lol...Me? Having my long time home in North Carolina, and my long time beach home in South Carolina, I'm a fence straddler. I love ALL of it, especially the BBQ, which is incredible from all sections...and if you've never had South Carolina mustard-based BBQ, you are missing out on one of life's great treats. BUT, when "Pressed", I will lay it out as Go Panthers, Go Wolfpack, Go Gamecocks and Go Lexington Style BBQ. The "Carolina's" are a complicated piece of work...lol...but one extra point, I'm pretty sure those that do not know all these things use that phrase the same way you guys use "Conus", "GOM" etc. It's just a shortening of words. If you condensed THEIR state though, such as "Alabama...Auburn...what's the difference?"...you would for SURE hear about...lol...ok...back to lurking and learning...
544. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - I just love that HWRF track for 94L.. Chances of it going that way?



Shows a weakness out in the EATL. I guess it's possible. Then shows high pressure building back in forcing it back more to the west. Seems to have some model support. See what happens.
Looks like Danny's making a run to restructure himself.
Quoting presslord:


feel free to ignore...in fact, I'd be honored if you did...

Sweet. :) No local pride (and I'm six miles from the border).
Looks like Danny is dissapating.. the exposed Center, shear, and also, dry air look like they are all going to stop Danny from becoming A Hurricane. Like I said in the last JeffMasters blog, I think that we could be dealing with a depression by tonight. Sorry, I said tomorrow night last night! IT was 4:00 a.m. in the morning, and my brain was BBQed enough to make ShishKebab (yuck) and I kind of was drowsy. I meant Tonight.

Take a look at the wind shear!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Looks strong enough to hurt Danny a little more, especialy if you imply dry air!

Whats your opinion guys?
commenting on bill........i was on daytona beach all last week for vacation and i've, never in my life, felt such powerful waves/undertow. you could literally be standing in knee deep water, plop down on your stomach and the water would just carry you for yards from south to north along the beach. then a wave would come along and slap you right back on your feet. amazing....
542. DoubleBranchGuy
; ) Bless your heart.
If I may add. You are either from Charleston or you are from 'off'. Doesn't matter whether it is Colombia, South American or Columbia, SC.
Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF on 94L....

Is the HWRF showing 94L as a fish storm?
Quoting F5Tornado:
Looks like Danny is dissapating.. the exposed Center, shear, and also, dry air look like they are all going to stop Danny from becoming A Hurricane. Like I said in the last JeffMasters blog, I think that we could be dealing with a depression by tonight. Sorry, I said tomorrow night last night! IT was 4:00 a.m. in the morning, and my brain was BBQed enough to make ShishKebab (yuck) and I kind of was drowsy. I meant Tonight.

Take a look at the wind shear!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Looks strong enough to hurt Danny a little more, especialy if you imply dry air!

Whats your opinion guys?


i think it is reforming farther east, but jmo. doesnt get listened to very often either :P
Good afternoon, all! Wow, I'm really confusing in tropical storm form...two apparent centers moving in two different directions; not expected to strengthen to hurricane strength until I'm extra-tropical...sorry about all that. :(
According to the gfs and hwrf, 94l will become a fish storm. 2009 is the year of the fish storm. Too mant troughs. Also high shear in the GOM this season. Looks like Florida and points west are in the clear this year.
Quoting missmaxi:

Is the HWRF showing 94L as a fish storm?

yeah but i really doubt that it looks to outlier for now other models have it almost due west at this point
12Z HWRF turns 94L northward in the CATL, but it is currently located around 10N and this may be too far south for such a northerly component.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
According to the gfs and hwrf, 94l will become a fish storm. 2009 is the year of the fish storm. Too mant troughs. Also high shear in the GOM this season. Looks like Florida and points west are in the clear this year.


thats a really bold statement
Invest 94 in 72 hours will be a hurricane i do not think so........


Shouldn't really read too much in to the models for 94L - it hasn't even deserved an orange circle from NHC yet... LOL!

All I can tell is that it's moving WEST for now...
Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z HWRF turns 94L northward in the CATL, but it is currently located around 10N and this may be too far south for such a northerly component.

true i really doubt it going that far north its just too far south
come on 94L
you look like a good fishy fishy fishy...
562. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Quoting KEHCharleston:
542. DoubleBranchGuy
; ) Bless your heart.
If I may add. You are either from Charleston or you are from 'off'. Doesn't matter whether it is Colombia, South American or Columbia, SC.


yup KEH...DoubleBranch gets it...looks like bad lookin weather comin to us goin over the Stono Bridge onto Johns Island...
CODE ORANGE!!
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
525 yes, there have been other days, Isabel could also count. But Bill had such good conditons for such a long time, it has to stand out as one of the best. I will say this though, with so much power, lots of waves were closeouts, and they weren't the easiest to drop in to.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

aha i knew it it will be orange i was waiting for that nice
myrtle1...yea...I think we're gonna be just dandy...
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
Invest 94 in 72 hours will be a hurricane i do not think so........




Care to argue your point with facts?

Not saying it will or won't be...just that the deep easterly flow around 94L is supportive of quick intensification if something were to develop...
94L a hurricane in 72h according to the SHIP... this explains the predicted northward movement. However a weaker system should follow a more westerly motion.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$


Invest to go orange.
thank you
Quoting btwntx08:

yeah but i really doubt that it looks to outlier for now other models have it almost due west at this point

That's what I thought, our experts have been saying that there is no weakness for at least 7-10 days to take 94L out to sea. I just wish these models would make up there minds.
Quoting Chiggy007:
Shouldn't really read too much in to the models for 94L - it hasn't even deserved an orange circle from NHC yet... LOL!

All I can tell is that it's moving WEST for now...


It's orange now..
NHC didn't even give it an orange color at 2pm outlook!!
Seems like 94L looks very good convection wise but it might be lacking a closed surface low..!?

Throw all the models out for now...
575. 7544
is that another jog sw in the last frame
is it possible for Danny with his current split personality disorder separate into two completely different storms? one with the convection and one without, or does the one without the convection becomes something else?
hey everyone...enjoying some time off in Indian Rocks beach...great place!
Heading back to Cayman on Monday and wondering if 94L has a chance getting into our area?
well thanks for all the interesting comments, im out, i have an english class to go to :P later guys!
The models showing a westward track for 94L toward the Lesser Antilles over the next 5-7 days are all shallower models. If the storm develops and has any depth at all, it will most likely follow a GFS/HWRF track. Interesting to note that I couldn't find it on the ECMWF. Of course, anything can happen, as it is pretty far south, but with all the weaknesses in the ridge, the usually reliable HWRF might not be all that far off.
Quoting Chiggy007:
Shouldn't really read too much in to the models for 94L - it hasn't even deserved an orange circle from NHC yet... LOL!

All I can tell is that it's moving WEST for now...


now it got the orange circle
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

Break out the orange crayon...
Ok, I take it back - spoke too soon! Orange circle now..
Quoting Chiggy007:
NHC didn't even give it an orange color at 2pm outlook!!
Seems like 94L looks very good convection wise but it might be lacking a closed surface low..!?

Throw all the models out for now...


One more time... It did get an Orange Circle and it is getting better organized.

Yes, teh mdoels are not that great on a system that hasn't formed yet so we will just have to wait.
584. IKE
Quoting Chiggy007:
NHC didn't even give it an orange color at 2pm outlook!!
Seems like 94L looks very good convection wise but it might be lacking a closed surface low..!?

Throw all the models out for now...


Quoting Weathermandan:
CODE ORANGE!!
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


... and there is pretty good model agreement that it will be held south by a very broad high pressure ridge building across the Atlantic. I don't see this one recurving north, but it's early going.

Hopefully it will get blasted apart by shear at some point, or another low trough will come along (the models are not presently calling for that).

- WTO
Quoting leelee75k:
is it possible for Danny with his current split personality disorder separate into two completely different storms? one with the convection and one without, or does the one without the convection becomes something else?


I think the eastern rotation is in the mid-levels right now, and not at the surface.

Quoting presslord:


yup KEH...DoubleBranch gets it...looks like bad lookin weather comin to us goin over the Stono Bridge onto Johns Island...
On and off here. I think most of the thunder I am hearing is from your direction.
Not worried about Danny. In any case, hurricane shelf has been supplied since June.
Quoting Chiggy007:
Ok, I take it back - spoke too soon! Orange circle now..

he hadn't check until now
We now have orange on 94L
Are the Hurricane Hunters in Danny yet? Have they found anything that supports that swirl east of the original center being a new developing LLC? Or not yet? I feel like the track is almost impossible to pin down...

My thoughts-is this correct? (2 secenerios for the track)
1. Convection builds over the original center, the storm clips eastern North Carolina and eastern Long Island, and makes landfall in southeastern New England.
2. A new LLC develops, and the storm follows a track like that of the HWRF, passing well offshore of North Carolina, and moving over 40N/70W.


Looks like wind shear might hinder the Tropical Disturbace a little too.
twd on 94L
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE NEAR 10.5N26.0W. THE CIMSS WAVETRACK GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM
AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
AN ERN TROPICAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 19N29W.
Quoting IKE:
12Z HWRF on 94L....


Missing the caribbean. Another Fish?
602. IKE
Quoting antonio28:


Missing the caribbean. Another Fish?


Could be...has model support.
Looks like it's got 2 COC's to me. Maybe it's an optical illusion?
Our Golden Panther is back...

Hey WS, what are your westward thoughts on danny?
HWRF is off on its first run dont trust that for even though its reliable
Quoting IKE:


Could be...has model support.



Highly unlikely with the pair of duel ridges expected to consalidate to it's immediate north early next week. Some of y'all on here really enjoy flip-flopping in reference to y'all daily trains of thoughts. :)
Quoting IKE:


Could be...has model support.


Yep. Since ECMWF and UKMET saw it that way two days ago.
None I'd say.
Quoting antonio28:


Missing the caribbean. Another Fish?

It's way to early to declare 94L a fish storm. Once it makes it to 15N then we should have some idea of where it is going.
Orange circle ON 94L WOW.. 97L LOOK BETTER THEN TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS...HAHAHA..
Quoting Weathermandan:
Are the Hurricane Hunters in Danny yet? Have they found anything that supports that swirl east of the original center being a new developing LLC? Or not yet? I feel like the track is almost impossible to pin down...

My thoughts-is this correct? (2 secenerios for the track)
1. Convection builds over the original center, the storm clips eastern North Carolina and eastern Long Island, and makes landfall in southeastern New England.
2. A new LLC develops, and the storm follows a track like that of the HWRF, passing well offshore of North Carolina, and moving over 40N/70W.


Looks like the first scenario to a point of clipping NorthCarolina. Then the storm will turn more to the Northeast and proceed to Yarmouth, part of Canada. Look at this link, itll show you what Danny may do.

It may even clip Boston, as the track says.

Here is the link. Do you want a wind shear map too? Ill give you all a link to the site!
Here is Storm Pulse:
Link

And here is the wind shear site:
Link

DOes it look good for Danny as is proceeds? No, not in my opinion. It looks as it he turned too far to the left, he may get ripped apart.
Quoting F5Tornado:


Looks like the first scenario to a point of clipping NorthCarolina. Then the storm will turn more to the Northeast and proceed to Yarmouth, part of Canada. Look at this link, itll show you what Danny may do.

It may even clip Boston, as the track says.

Here is the link. Do you want a wind shear map too? Ill give you all a link to the site!
Here is Storm Pulse:
Link

And here is the wind shear site:
Link

DOes it look good for Danny as is proceeds? No, not in my opinion. It looks as it he turned too far to the left, he may get ripped apart.


Missing the US or getting sheared apart... I'll take either.
Quoting btwntx08:
HWRF is off on its first run dont trust that for even though its reliable


GFDL has something similar in its 12z run of 94L.

Both the HWRF & the GFDL are showing a slow down in forward motion, followed by a turn to the north, then hinting at a turn back to the west after gaining some latitude.

WSJFV...glad to see you got your keyboard straightened out...
Quoting tornadodude:
OSUWXGUY-

hey, what is your take on a possible new llc forming?



Here's what I will say... It's a complicated situation.

The most recent recon found the lowest surface pressures and identified the center as the naked swirl to the west.

However, the pressure in this has risen from earlier today (from 1004mb extrapolated or so to 1008mb extrapolated)...indicative of weakening of this circulation.

If new convection does not fire soon near this LLC it is likely to die off.

Further confounding the data are the southwest winds found well ESE of the naked swirl. This suggests that the overall circulation is elongated west-east, and certainly suggest a relocation is possible to the east.


Looks like the HH's are currently finding the COC a little to the west of their previous vortex message issued at 1639z.
Seems like we go backwards everyday :-/


I think some people just like the game.
Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z GFDL for 94L


No surprises there, as it always tends to follow it's GFS predecessor.
anyone wanna post that vortex or link to wher eyou can see the google earth image?
Where are some posters getting another Fish? Ana moved through the NE Antilles, Bill hit Canada, Claudette hit the panhandle of FL, Danny ? seems all effected a person at some point.
Two final points on the LLC debate:


The low level wind data plotted by Cimms here - Low Level Winds - show an elongated circulation (or trough like feature) from the eastern Bahamas back east to the area of deep convection.

Also, though it's not conclusive, there appears to be some tightly curving bands in the eastern bands suggestive of a further east LLC trying to form. You can check that out here:
Danny RGB Loop
Quoting fmbill:
Looks like the HH's are currently finding the COC a little to the west of their previous vortex message issued at 1639z.


Danny is the enigma storm of 2009. And still with out an onw identity. Remaind me Pre-Fay invest last year.
Quoting sporteguy03:
Where are some posters getting another Fish? Ana moved through the NE Antilles, Bill hit Canada, Claudette hit the panhandle of FL, Danny ? seems all effected a person at some point.


if it doesnt hit them on the head, then they considered it fish..
Quoting StormW:


They read my forecast again...LOL!


happy birthday, what are you doing working..shouldnt you go have few drinks about now!!
Danny almost looks like it has gone a little WSW and is near 27.3 N or so....I am starting to wonder if it will shear apart completely. What kind of upper level environment will Danny have if the low level center keeps going west?
Quoting sporteguy03:
Where are some posters getting another Fish? Ana moved through the NE Antilles, Bill hit Canada, Claudette hit the panhandle of FL, Danny ? seems all effected a person at some point.



Because as long as it doesn't affect our sweet good ol' humble abode, then we dub it a ''fish storm.
Happy B-Day, Mr. W!
Quoting StormW:


They read my forecast again...LOL!


Nope they read mine....YOu must have read mine before you posted yours...I got mine posted before yours.......LMAO...GOOD JOB!

TampaSpin and StormW Tropical Updates
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 27/16:39:30Z
B. 27 deg 16 min N
073 deg 14 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 036 deg 131 nm
F. 098 deg 48 kt
G. 035 deg 124 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C / 456 m
J. 24 C / 461 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0505A DANNY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 15:51:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
Could the afternoon thunderstorms over florida get pulled into Danny naked circulation and make it stronger? His outflow is brushing the coast of SE Florida.
Storm W, Seems like we are save in the caribbean for this one right?
Quoting StormW:


Aye!


StormW you better forecast no rain for the BUCS game tonite.....I hate getting rained on ........LOL
GFDL has 94L going up the middle of the atlantic?
Quoting justalurker:


happy birthday, what are you doing working..shouldnt you go have few drinks about now!!


You've got to understand it's his true passion. He's doing what he wants to do. That's why he's good at it.
I'd kill for a new quikscat on Danny right now
Quoting StormW:


I should...but,

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)


holy cow, now that is busy, make us a wish for us when blowing out those candles..wish of alot of fishes..
now both of them are off am going with the bamms right now
Quoting largeeyes:
I'd kill for a new quikscat on Danny right now
Kill whom, I might have a list for ya, lol.
Storm, what do you think about the latest GFDL and HWRF models taking 94L harmlessly out to sea as of they're latest runs?
I got to go for a while, see you all later! Probably at 8GMT A.M. See you all!
Quoting largeeyes:
I'd kill for a new quikscat on Danny right now


Have to wait for 7 or 8 hours. LOL
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Because as long as it doesn't affect our sweet good ol' humble abode, then we dub it a ''fish storm.


Thankfully, Katrina was a fish, as it didn't hit me up here in Iowa. ;)
94 is not looking all that good neither dry air might be getting to it the central atlantic this yr has not been too hospitable
So the western COC is back down to 1007. For petes sake...
19N81W....man, you brought back a flood of memories a while ago when you mentioned Indian Rocks Beach. the last time I was there, my daughter, then 2 years old, was running around on the beach at around 8PM in her diaper. she screamed all the way back to the hotel when we left! :)
LOL No Cheif I mean 94L future Erika.
Quoting 19N81W:
GFDL has 94L going up the middle of the atlantic?
oh you cant call it a fish azores islands. just kidding
Quoting leftovers:
94 is not looking all that good neither dry air might be getting to it the central atlantic this yr has not been too hospitable

oh really did u read the two it said it "still becoming better organized"
Hey WS what courses are you taking at FIU?
Quoting StormW:


Aye!


Happy Birthday Storm!

Kind of fun having stuff to track on your birthday...

No TCs on my birthday usually (April 3)...but we've been known have a few 'nados on that day in the past!
Quoting presslord:



seriously...you should see someone...


And you should stop living inside of this blog 24/7/360. J/K. Are you keeping an eye on Danny, Press? Have any of the local management emergency officials up there in the ''Carolinas'' begun any type of preperations in case Danny decides to you fine folks a visit?
Quoting DestinJeff:


that one is from earlier today (1639Z)


It's from an earlier pass of the area on this current mission.
Quoting StormW:


Garbage!


I am curious, why?
Hello,

Just checking in for the day. I see our new wave is now orange....So how is this looking so far? Will this continue west or has there been a change as of yet?
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Storm, what do you think about the latest GFDL and HWRF models taking 94L harmlessly out to sea as of they're latest runs?


Sit back and watch, before it gets anywhere near anyone you'll be able to see for yourself if it verifies. First runs of the GFDL and HWRF are especially crappy. Wait till a COC develops, then they will be accurate.
Quoting StormW:


Garbage!




I blindlessly agree, although I am somewhat intruiged in wanting to know what do you think has lead them to this early trayectory in regards to 94L? :)
Correct that "May Be" accurate
Quoting StormW:


Garbage!

Storm:
You know I always trust opinion.
I will now throw the HWRF and GFDL in the trash...
AL 05 2009082718 BEST 0 273N 734W 45 1008 TS
And you should stop living inside of this blog 24/7/360

360? what happened to the last 5 days?
Blindlessly?
I'm to hear that, my friend.
My fault. I meant to write blindlessly.
actually...StormW told me privately that he is 100% certain that 94 is gonna become a Cat 5 and obliterate SEFLA...

better start putting up that plywood on the ol' outhouse now...
Local weather guys are pretty much just regurgitating the NHC spiel. WCTI was most descriptive:

It appears that Danny will give us more actual weather than what we saw with Bill, but will not be nearly as bad as some storms in our past. There is about a 12 to 18 hour window where places east of Highway 17 will feel the effects from Danny. These will be mainly gusty downpours and winds between 20 and 30 mph. The strongest effects will be felt Friday afternoon through the early morning hours on Saturday. But by noon on Saturday Danny will be north of us with some sunshine returning.
Back from school

Dr M: The Canadian model had the best performance of any model for Bill, surpassing even the Official NHC forecast. The next best performing models were the GFDL and GFS. Last year's best performing model, the European Center model, was not available for this analysis. Image credit: Dr. Jim Goerss, Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Yes, the Canadian model performs well on tracking. I still think the ECMWF is more reliable, however.
Quoting WeatherStudent:




I blindlessly agree, although I am somewhat intruiged in wanting to know what do you think has lead them to this early trayectory in regards to 94L? :)

Does anyone think that he types his post and then uses a thesaurus??
Quoting presslord:


Federation of Irritating Underachievers

Hey, show some respect. I graduated from FIU with an MBA, and I have been doing very well since.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 27/17:52:50Z
B. 27 deg 15 min N
073 deg 22 min W
C. NA
D. 21 kt
E. 133 deg 37 nm
F. 213 deg 20 kt
G. 133 deg 44 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 24 C / 395 m
J. 24 C / 396 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF307 0505A DANNY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 15:51:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT NW QUAD 18:25:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 135 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
...ah...you DID write "blindlessly"
Quoting presslord:


actually...StormW told me privately that he is 100% certain that 94 is gonna become a Cat 5 and obliterate SEFLA...


Having fun today I see?
those other 5 days are spent using that thesaurus
Ah, I see. Thank you for your response.

and have a happy Birthday today :)
Danny Deflector Shield Blob up...Check
Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey, show some respect. I graduated from FIU with an MBA, and I have been doing very well since.



ooooppppsie....
Quoting DestinJeff:


perhaps, just noting the time of the transmission ... 1639 Z (1139 Eastern ... 2 hrs or so old)


Actually...1639z = 1239 Eastern
Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey, show some respect. I graduated from FIU with an MBA, and I have been doing very well since.


Same for me.. Which over-acheiving school did you drunkenly pass through PressLord?
Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey, show some respect. I graduated from FIU with an MBA, and I have been doing very well since.




???
You know I would never ignore someone on this blog, it just wouldnt be the same without the daily humor.
It's not a word anyway.
Quoting fmbill:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 27/17:52:50Z
B. 27 deg 15 min N
073 deg 22 min W. EXTRAP 1008 mb
;


Yep this is still on the LLC that is exposed, and it is weaker than late last night/early this morning...

Happy Birthday StormW....I look forward to your forecast in the days ahead with most likely Erika...
Quoting DestinJeff:


Ericka, you little vixen, you shouldn't have!


?? Thats the coordinates for Danny at 18Z
Quoting futuremet:
Back from school

Dr M: The Canadian model had the best performance of any model for Bill, surpassing even the Official NHC forecast. The next best performing models were the GFDL and GFS. Last year's best performing model, the European Center model, was not available for this analysis. Image credit: Dr. Jim Goerss, Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Yes, the Canadian model performs well on tracking. I still think the ECMWF is more reliable, however.

Let's see if I have this right
CMC for tracking (once something has developed - CMC too quick to develop cyclones that are not there)
SHIPS - for intensity?
?????- For pinning down where a storm will develop?
Quoting HurricaneCavalier:


Same for me.. Which over-acheiving school did you drunkenly pass through PressLord?


The University of By God Georgia...and let the record show...I am not necessarily disagreeing with your description of me...
Quoting presslord:
...ah...you DID write "blindlessly"


LOL
714..PRiceless Jeff! Priceless!
Quoting DestinJeff:




LMAO!!!!
I am gonna need depends, to continue reading this blog.
Quoting DestinJeff:




LOL had to jump out of lurker mode for this one!!!
27/1745 UTC 27.3N 73.4W T2.0/2.5 DANNY -- Atlantic

Rhut-Rho, somebody's in twouble.
Good afternoon all! Just wanted to stop in this afternoon while at campus to wish someone who I have come to respect and look up to for guidance a Happy Birthday to StormW. Continue the excellent work and enjoy your special day.

In regards to Danny, its really surprising that the storm has been holding on considering all the hostile conditions coming from various directions with the ULL to the SW, a deep dry air surge from the SE, and dry air to the NW. In my mind, I don't envision this becoming a hurricane in the future given the current conditions and the fact that I'm thinking that it will interact with the OBX this weekend.

In regards to Invest 94L, its too early in the lifetime for the computer models to be taken with serious consideration. Allow the system to develop and progress before really giving much credence to the models. But, I must say this shows great promise for development as there are really no inhibiting factors in the disturbance's environment.
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.
Meterologist Denis Phillips in Tampa. Just posted on his twitter that the weaker danny stays the more likely it will head west and may eventually affect FLA.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Let's see if I have this right
CMC for tracking (once something has developed - CMC too quick to develop cyclones that are not there)
SHIPS - for intensity?
?????- For pinning down where a storm will develop?


The CMC is cyclogenically biased, but handles synoptic scale features with great efficacy. The GFS is mediocre at all fields. The ECMWF seems to be well balanced, and performs relatively well at all fields. The UKMET and the NOGAPS tend to be too conservative, and the UKMET has the propensity to push storms further west.
Quoting NRAamy:
actually...StormW told me privately that he is 100% certain that 94 is gonna become a Cat 5 and obliterate SEFLA...

better start putting up that plywood on the ol' outhouse now...

don't go there Amy - you know what happened last time ;)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


at long last...some hope...
Quoting presslord:


The University of By God Georgia...and let the record show...I am not necessarily disagreeing with your description of me...


All will be forgiven when you dawgs beat the Gators for me...please tell me they will do that!!

Just yankin' yer chain man, FIU is terrible, take it from me a former student of the institution. However, they do indeed give you that over-priced piece of paper stating you did your homework and qualify for a bottom-feeder occupation...thank you Tallahassee.
That's a real live sign in Florida folks, WS take cover
Quoting WeatherStudent:
My fault. I meant to write blindlessly.


I think you meant blindly.
Blindlessly is a double negative.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


I would say it has a 75% chance of not going out to sea, because the anomalous troughing pattern is expected to halt by the second week of September. It is too early if this thing will affect the U.S. or if it will degenerate like Ana-Banana did.
All will be forgiven when you dawgs beat the Gators for me...please tell me they will do that!!

from your lips to God's ear, my friend...
Would you people quit quoting WS? There's a reason we have him on ignore.
Listen JFV since you're obviously new to gambling I'll break the bad news to you. You have to bet with something that's actually worth something.
Quoting RitaEvac:
That's a real live sign in Florida folks, WS take cover

lol
ROTFLMAO!!!! This is just getting too good to miss out on.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


Do you promise to leave the blog forever if you are wrong, cuz i will contact bill gates, to see if he can help us here.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


The ULTIMATE wishcast...
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


Now EVERYONE will be fishcasting.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.


You should bet your Weather Underground account. Man it was nice this morning, well thats gone.
Quoting presslord:
All will be forgiven when you dawgs beat the Gators for me...please tell me they will do that!!

from your lips to God's ear, my friend...


Not gonna happen, keep dreamin
Blindlessly is a double negative.

When I arose this morning, I opend my eyes, blindlessly they were operating as normal.
Taken from the 11AM NHC Discussion:

DANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE
REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR...
AND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN.

Right now, it's this confluent flow that has really buggered up Danny...

You can see this confluent (or coming together) flow aloft on the satellite loop linked below.

First find the naked swirl. Now look at the bright white wispy clouds (cirrus) to the west and see them streaming east... Now look for the same type of clouds streaming to the west off of the big area of convection to the east of the LLC.

So these two areas of Cirrus are converging over or just to the west of the LLC. This converging causes sinking air and prevents convection. It is the opposite of the anticyclone which is typically over a tropical system that provide divergent flow aloft.


Now one final point from the satellite. You can see the cirrus streaming east and southeast on the east side of the area of deep convection. Strong divergence over this feature is helping support the deep convection located to the east of the LLC. All the strong bands of surface convergence are streaming into this area instead of the LLC. This is why the LLC is not taking over and strengthening...


Link
Quoting futuremet:


I would say it has a 75% chance of not going out to sea, because the anomalous troughing pattern is expected to halt by the second week of September. It is too early if this thing will affect the U.S. or if it will degenerate like Ana-Banana did.


Thank you for that, FM. How's school?
Quoting DestinJeff:


ROFL!!!!!
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Alright, ladies and gents. It's official, I'll bet my life on here this afternoon that 94L, soon to be Ericka, will 150% be an eventual US land threater, because I just do not see this one being a fish storm. Thanks, all.



150%?????
Quoting JupiterFL:


I think you meant blindly.
Blindlessly is a double negative.


No, he meant blindlessly...
look at the models now.. some of the models of tropical storm danny hitting NC NOW..
For old time sake

Blindlessly, 150%!!
Afternoon, fellows.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Taken from the 11AM NHC Discussion:

DANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOWASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE
REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR...
AND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN.

Right now, it's this confluent flow that has really buggered up Danny...

You can see this confluent (or coming together) flow aloft on the satellite loop linked below.

First find the naked swirl. Now look at the bright white wispy clouds (cirrus) to the west and see them streaming east... Now look for the same type of clouds streaming to the west off of the big area of convection to the east of the LLC.

So these two areas of Cirrus are converging over or just to the east of the LLC. This converging causes sinking air and prevents convection. It is the opposite of the anticyclone which is typically over a tropical system that provide divergent flow aloft.


Now one final point from the satellite. You can see the cirrus streaming east and southeast on the east side of the area of deep convection. Strong divergence over this feature is helping support the deep convection.


Link


So...if Danny is declared a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?

Good Evening folks...Just popping in...Happy Birthday StormW. Enjoy ur day. Is there any chance Erika coming to the West Indies? Or is it too soon to tell?
Presslord You are like a ray of sunshine. I look forward to everyday to read what you are going to say and you take just as much dish out. A great guy with a awesome sense of humor!!
p.s. a central North Carolina girl!!!!
Quoting FLdewey:
Listen JFV since you're obviously new to gambling I'll break the bad news to you. You have to bet with something that's actually worth something.


Wow. Thats the worst comment I have ever seen written on this blog. No matter how annoying someone may be, there's no reason to make such a comment. I hope you get banned for that.
Quoting JupiterFL:


I think you meant blindly.
Blindlessly is a double negative.


All I know is it locked up dictionary.com
Do not worry about it, I do not have to justify my grammar on here to NO ONE.
"blindlessly...
is such a lonely word...
everyone just doesn't have a clue...

Blindlessly..
Is hardly ever heard...
unless you went to FIU......"
Quoting ncleclerc:
Presslord You are like a ray of sunshine. I look forward to everyday to read what you are going to say and you take just as much dish out. A great guy with a awesome sense of humor!!
p.s. a central North Carolina girl!!!!


OK...now I'm blushing...xoxoxoxo
Quoting ncleclerc:
Presslord You are like a ray of sunshine. I look forward to everyday to read what you are going to say and you take just as much dish out. A great guy with a awesome sense of humor!!
p.s. a central North Carolina girl!!!!


Ok Press, lets add them up, how many points did she score in the first half of the post, as oppopsed to how many she lost at the end....?
Happy Birthday StormW !!! I always look forward to reading your blog :) I hope that the rest of this evening is awesome for your birthday. Go have some fun!!!!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Wow. Thats the worst comment I have ever seen written on this blog. No matter how annoying someone may be, there's no reason to make such a comment. I hope you get banned for that.


Some of these comments are WAYYY over the top.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Blindlessly, 150%!!


LOL!
From Urban Dictionary.com:

1. blindlessly

1)to be with sight
2)to operate without blindness
3)completely fake word.
This is an improper / fake word i heard a person use at the bar last night. He used it in a sentence like, you cant go blindlessly through life, (eg, bob charged blindlessly up the stairs).
How's this for and "extrapolated"?

SFWMD
Schools great WS...last year in high school.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Wow. Thats the worst comment I have ever seen written on this blog. No matter how annoying someone may be, there's no reason to make such a comment. I hope you get banned for that.


I'd say worse, WeatherMan. But I'll keep my comments concealed in regards to that insignificant pest. No worries, my friend.
Wow. Thats the worst comment I have ever seen written on this blog.

really? ok, guys, can we post the Top Ten put-downs from the main blog to catch this guy up to speed?
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
look at the models now.. some of the models of tropical storm danny hitting NC NOW..

Definitely a bit of a shift west. In addition, please, show some respect. I have an MBA and I stayed at a holiday inn express last night.
Quoting Floodman:


No, he meant blindlessly...


LOL
12z ECMWF....

ECMWF
This is now old news, but I had to run out for a bit, but thanks for the nice words KEHCharleston and Presslord, even if you don't like my football loyalties:-) As a former outside salesmen from North Carolina who had to try to get business in Charleston, I KNOW how y'all feel about your beautiful city...lol...I know all to well. So happy I don't have to beat my head up against that wall everyday anymore. I absolutely love the Charleston area though, and if there was ever a place to feel so smug about, that would be it. I would sure like to end my day today sitting on the deck at Red's in Shem Creek, watching the dolphins and drinking several cold beers. Then I'd go hang out at the Blind Tiger downtown...that place has one of the best outside courtyards to hang at I've ever been to. LOVE IT. Sorry to be off topic. I'll shut now Mr. Blog
Quoting futuremet:
Schools great WS...last year in high school.


You wear a suit to school?
LLC of Danny trying to establish itself back eastward around 28N/70W, imo
Turbuler, you planing on attending your prom?
Danny 18Z model update


Quoting NRAamy:
Wow. Thats the worst comment I have ever seen written on this blog.

really? ok, guys, can we post the Top Ten put-downs from the main blog to catch this guy up to speed?


Oh no...no no no no...not gonna do it.
If Danny is a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?
OMG!!!! What's it showing. Geeze.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Ok Press, lets add them up, how many points did she score in the first half of the post, as oppopsed to how many she lost at the end....?


lol...she's still way ahead...
Quoting Elena85Vet:


All I know is it locked up dictionary.com


LOL
I'll compare Danny to Dan Marino in his last year of professional football...over thrown to the right out of bounds...

Anyone? huh?
I don't think it was THAT good... was kind of an easy setup. ;-)
Is Danny stalled?
94L is way too far out to be that concerned about track wait like 5 days, when it is actually somewhat organized.
Quoting fmbill:
If Danny is a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?


I would assume a much more western track.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Nope he dressed up for his WU photo to make him look smarter.


Oooh..burn!
by granny...went to same school as press...moved to fl in 2004 and have enjoyed WU ever since
well im gonna blindessly bet that 94l is going to hit the carolinas....

that is my third offense press i am now waiting on my flogging.
AL 94 2009082718 BEST 0 107N 270W 25 1009 DB
Oh no...no no no no...not gonna do it.

wimp...

;)
Good afternoon, everyone!

I will have a graphics update shortly.
Thank you Presslord!!
Ya'll have a good day now.....
This will be the new pattern soon; the pattern will shift, and the troughing will be more predominant at the west coast.


It takes it into the Carib. as I suspected.
NWS Melbourne...

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...BOTH DANNY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSITING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING THE MEAN MIDWEST/EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE...KEEP EC FLORIDA IN
DEEP SWRLY FLOW. AS WE HAVE SEEN OFTEN THIS SUMMER...THIS FLOW
WILL LIMIT THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ECSB AND FAVOR THE EAST
COAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH A
LATE STARTING SEA BREEZE.

LOL!!! Danny better get a move on if it's supposed to be out of here in 24 hours. :-)
I'm going to blindly sip my pepsi now...ooops...knew I should have done it blindlessly instead...where's a towel?

Once again, it appears Danny is shedding its exposed center and trying to reform a new center further to the northeast. Bess guesstimate would be near 28°N 71°W for the location of this newly forming center.

The exposed circulation can be seen in the last several frames of the satellite loop to become more elongated SW-NE and it also losing velocity.
Quoting futuremet:
This will be the new pattern soon...




what does this mean?
Quoting WeatherStudent:
It takes it into the Carib. as I suspected.


They already got Florida DOT running signs on the freeway telling you where its going, so they suspect it as well.
Quoting futuremet:
This will be the new pattern soon...




Which is what exactly? Sorry, do not know how to read all these maps....What does it mean?
Dannys models have trended westward today, figured that would be the case because of the center jog. I'm still confused on why North Carolina is not under at least a Tropical Storm Watch. Somebodies slacking lol.
Quoting futuremet:
This will be the new pattern soon...



so if thats forecast correctly than 94L will go west
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

Does anyone think that he types his post and then uses a thesaurus??

Now you see why he is an ignore list favorite. Unbelievable how he is allowed on here.
he may not have any blinds...but he has a really cute shower curtain...
he has a shower curtain in the outhouse?
Ive got an ailing Grandmother and a Aunt that are up in age,living together in Melbourne Fl. My point is there seems to be alot of doubt where the COC is and what direction it is going. Should the Fl. coast have anything to worry about? Danny seems to be getting closer and closer!!
Quoting RitaEvac:


They already got Florida DOT running signs on the freeway telling you where its going, so they suspect it as well.


Hi There local...or I think you are pretty local.... What is your take on this possible soon to be Erika?
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Happy Birthday Storm!

Kind of fun having stuff to track on your birthday...

No TCs on my birthday usually (April 3)...but we've been known have a few 'nados on that day in the past!

I don't know how old you are, but wow, that is the day the "Super Outbreak" started...
I'll wager you weren't around and in Xenia.
819. N3EG
Quoting HurricaneCavalier:
...ooops... I should have done it blindlessly instead...where's a towel?


I can't hardly understand what he said.
latest NWS discussion for PR


THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE REGION INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE SJU-GFS LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE SUGGESTS UP TO 2.32 INCHES OF PWAT ACROSS
THE REGION BY THAT TIME. GOOD INDICATION THAT THE PEAK OF THE WET
SEASON WILL BE WITH US VERY SOON. STAY TUNED.



Are they talking about 94L? I have some doubts
Quoting reedzone:
Dannys models have trended westward today, figured that would be the case because of the center jog. I'm still confused on why North Carolina is not under at least a Tropical Storm Watch. Somebodies slacking lol.
maybe at 5pm North Carolina will have Tropical Storm Watch
"If Danny is a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?"

The declaration of a system as a depression or a storm has no effect on the forecast path. Ttopical cyclones are not steared by declarations.
Wave across eastern atlantic looks like its has continue to organize.I looked at the GFS ensembles and they have consistently been showing a trough rebuilding over the western Atlantic in the 11-15 day range so we'll see what happens.Not really buying into a quick recurve as the HWRF suggest.
lol Jeff is quite the photo shop master lol
Jeff you are killing me man.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive got an ailing Grandmother and a Aunt that are up in age,living together in Melbourne Fl. My point is there seems to be alot of doubt where the COC is and what direction it is going. Should the Fl. coast have anything to worry about? Danny seems to be getting closer and closer!!


don't panic Florida should get very little if anything from Danny other than choppy seas.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi There local...or I think you are pretty local.... What is your take on this possible soon to be Erika?


I don't worry about systems that far out, only concern when in NW Carribbean, Gulf, or Florida Straits moving in our general direction
It looks like someone thinks baby Danny will go a little more west, than earlier thought?

Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive got an ailing Grandmother and a Aunt that are up in age,living together in Melbourne Fl. My point is there seems to be alot of doubt where the COC is and what direction it is going. Should the Fl. coast have anything to worry about? Danny seems to be getting closer and closer!!


I wouldn't say there is a lot of doubt... they have no need to worry.
Quoting iluvjess:
"If Danny is a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?"

The declaration of a system as a depression or a storm has no effect on the forecast path. Ttopical cyclones are not steared by declarations.


I believe he was hinting as to if Danny continues to fall apart, how would that affect the steering. Obviously, the storm does not respond to how it is classified by the NHC.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Which is what exactly? Sorry, do not know how to read all these maps....What does it mean?


It means there will be ridging at the east coast, which favors westward movement. BUT, as the Bermuda high strengthens, the models are forecasting the Azores high to weaken (typical for negative NAO), and slight troughing may occur in the mid-Atlantic. This may cause storms to move farther north. However, I don't think it will be sufficient to send something out to sea, since models tend to be polewardly biased in long range runs. We will just have to wait and see.

Quoting futuremet:


It means there will be ridging at the east coast, which favors westward movement. BUT, as the Bermuda high strengthens, the models are forecasting the Azores high to weaken (typical for negative NAO), and slight troughing may occur in the mid-Atlantic. This may cause storms to move farther north. However, I don't think it will be sufficient to send something out to sea, since models tend to be polewardly biased in long range runs. We will just have to wait and see.



Thank you!
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't know how old you are, but wow, that is the day the "Super Outbreak" started...
I'll wager you weren't around and in Xenia.


Nope. I missed out on that tragic day. Born in 1982. Ohio always seems to get the right combo of strong wind shear and just enough returning moisture from the Gulf in early to mid-April to cause some really bad weather...

My parents lived in Cincy and saw the tornado skipping across the hills of Cincy on that day though!
Quoting hurricane23:
Wave across eastern atlantic looks like its has continue to organize.I looked at the GFS ensembles and they have consistently been showing a trough rebuilding over the western Atlantic in the 11-15 day range so we'll see what happens.Not really buying into a quick recurve as the HWRF suggest.



Afternoon Adrian! However, the ECMWF ensembles are showing the complete opposite; therefore, which ones are more crediable?
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
maybe at 5pm North Carolina will have Tropical Storm Watch


It's been a bit aggravating, people in North Carolina need to know what is "possibly" coming to them. Also a Tropical Storm Watch should be posted all the way up to Cape Cod, MA. Would not surprise me that the watch would be a Hurricane Watch on the Carolinas. They need some sort of watch on the coastline.
since models tend to be polewardly biased in long range runs. We will just have to wait and see.

espcially the GFS, which is the main one that goes out that far.



I am pretty sure (about 1.03 % sure) 94L will hit Reedville on the central coast of Virginia with winds of 134.567 mph in 12 days and 4 hours.
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is meant in good fun ONLY to our friend WS:

img src="
Free Myspace Generators" alt="" />


Careful, you might get a ban. Me, NRAmy, P451 got banned 24hrs ago for posting the Stormtop's weather center with director JFV image
Most NC news stations are reporting little or no effects expected from Danny.
So, yea.

Don't go near walmart if TS warnings are issued tonight or tomorrow.
Looking back some days ago, didn't those earlier model runs have Danny hugging close to the Florida coast and then tracking up toward NC and the northeast?

Quoting weatherman4189:
Meterologist Denis Phillips in Tampa. Just posted on his twitter that the weaker danny stays the more likely it will head west and may eventually affect FLA.
Quoting BrockBerlin:
I am pretty sure (about 1.03 % sure) 94L will hit Reedville on the central coast of Virginia with winds of 134.567 mph in 12 days and 4 hours.

wow somebody wishcasting here
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Nope. I missed out on that tragic day. Born in 1982. Ohio always seems to get the right combo of strong wind shear and just enough returning moisture from the Gulf in early to mid-April to cause some really bad weather...

My parents lived in Cincy and saw the tornado skipping across the hills of Cincy on that day though!

Ohio gets their share in spring, but that particular outbreak was The tornado outbreak of the century. (Somewhat like the way your university puts "The" before their name lest anyone confuse Ohio State with another Ohio State...happens up there, I guess).
Texas should be good this year, as long as these troughs consistently are coming down. Now later in the fall, systems in the BOC can spin up but cold fronts will save us and push whatever is out there to Florida.

Supposed to be some kind of moisture surge into TX next week models keep picking up on, be nice to get rain.
If Danny keeps up with the West track, our conditions favorable for strengthing?
Quoting fmbill:


So...if Danny is declared a depression at 5pm, how will that affect the forecast path?



To answer your question, it's not so much the strength of Danny that will determine its East Coast impact...but rather if the CoC reforms further east or not.

The steering for all levels will yank this thing starting tomorrow mornign RAPIDLY to the NNW and the North. The upper level low over the Southeast currently is forecast to eject to the east as ridging over the western US starts to dig a trough over the Midwest.
Danny is still a mess....I've looked in 3 ways and I still can't tell where a COC is gonna be.
I just want to say that I really half the time do not understand what I am reading because I do not understand weather Terminology. I will say I do enjoy coming here and getting some incite to what is going on being that I live in New Orleans. I like to be prepared to leave before our lazy government tells us to leave. So basically I just want to thank all of you.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ohio gets their share in spring, but that particular outbreak was The tornado outbreak of the century. (Somewhat like the way your university puts "The" before their name lest anyone confuse Ohio State with another Ohio State...happens up there, I guess).


I was pretty close to the Blue Ash tornado maybe 5 years ago but thats about it
Virginia newspaper have said little effects, perhaps winds of 20kts.
Quoting nolacane2009:
I just want to say that I really half the time do not understand what I am reading because I do not understand weather Terminology. I will say I do enjoy coming here and getting some incite to what is going on being that I live in New Orleans. I like to be prepared to leave before our lazy government tells us to leave. So basically I just want to thank all of you.


somewhere on WU is a pretty good glossary...if you can find it, it's a good resource...
Quoting BrockBerlin:
I am pretty sure (about 1.03 % sure) 94L will hit Reedville on the central coast of Virginia with winds of 134.567 mph in 12 days and 4 hours.


Nice try wise guy! I'll report you if you ever think of mocking me again. I'm not a wishcaster and models have proved my point of it moving a bit west.
Quoting Bayside:
Virginia newspaper have said little effects, perhaps winds of 20kts.


winds of 20kts... what newspaper uses kts are they writing for boaters?
SaoFeng. That was 10 years ago, wasn't it? F4 that killed 5 people 1999. I remember because I skipped school that day not wanting to drive through that on my way down to Cincy(7 Hills).
GFLD model develops Danny into cat cat 3? Just off the coast of Cap Code.
Quoting stormsurge39:
If Danny keeps up with the West track, our conditions favorable for strengthing?


Still seeing a fair amount of shear to his west; he'd have to drop WSW towards SEFL. Not much chance of really rapid development in that environment
T.S Danny is overhyped....he looks to be a mess on imagery and I will be shocked if he proves to make a landfall anything stronger than what Hannah was.
brockberlin stop wishing a storm to that area or else
Quoting MILLERTIME1:
GFLD model develops Danny into cat cat 3? Just off the coast of Cap Code.


aint gonna happen with cold waters up there, common sense
Quoting presslord:
he may not have any blinds...but he has a really cute shower curtain...


I'd say that is a BURN...
Quoting presslord:


somewhere on WU is a pretty good glossary...if you can find it, it's a good resource...


Thank you very much. I will see if I can find it. No one here will ever have to worry about me making stupid comments though.
Quoting largeeyes:
Danny is still a mess....I've looked in 3 ways and I still can't tell where a COC is gonna be.


Like I said before, compare to Danny to Dan Marino in his last season of professional football..

WCTI in eastern NC said 20-30mph east of 17...
Quoting nolacane2009:


Thank you very much. I will see if I can find it. No one here will ever have to worry about me making stupid comments though.


aw...go ahead...I do it all the time...
Be careful what you say about "disorganized, sloppy, etc." Danny. He still has the chance to strengthen when the environment gets more favorable.
Quoting SaoFeng:


I was pretty close to the Blue Ash tornado maybe 5 years ago but thats about it

That one we are talking about was 148 nadoes over the course of about 18 hours. A number of them went through towns. 300+ killed. Like I said, The nado outbreak.

somewhere on WU is a pretty good glossary...if you can find it, it's a good resource...

just don't read the section on "blindlessly"....
Everybody gets 40mph gust every winter when strong cold fronts blast through
Danny will still be a tropical storm at 5pm its will have winds to 50 mph. and a tropical storm watch for north carolins

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

Danny looks like a squall line

Quoting reedzone:


Nice try wise guy! I'll report you if you ever think of mocking me again. I'm not a wishcaster and models have proved my point of it moving a bit west.

Now what made you think he/she was mocking you????
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ohio gets their share in spring, but that particular outbreak was The tornado outbreak of the century. (Somewhat like the way your university puts "The" before their name lest anyone confuse Ohio State with another Ohio State...happens up there, I guess).


Ha Ha. "The" before Ohio State is admittedly goofy... There is an Ohio University that could make it a bit confusing I suppose...but now I think its more of a schtick thing than anything.

I lived down in Big 12 country when I went to grad school at Oklahoma. I have a question for you, when are the schools in the Big 12 going to learn to play defense??? Admittedly OSU's offense has sucked lately, but we at least slowed Texas down in the Fiesta last year, and Florida did the same to Oklahoma in the NC game.
Quoting presslord:


aw...go ahead...I do it all the time...

I will say this. I was always taught that if you don't know about something it is best not to even comment on it.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


winds of 20kts... what newspaper uses kts are they writing for boaters?


Yes, they write for boats in their Marine forecasts...
Quoting presslord:


aw...go ahead...I do it all the time...


Just don't ask what the CONUS is... you will be flogged. Not flAgged, flOgged.

(ps.... I had to google it... SO GLAD I didn't ask!)
stormsurge39

You have mail
Its latitude to me is a big plus for this system and kinda reminds me of Hurricane georges back in 1998.
Looks like the intensity models are in pretty close agreement (hey, doesn't happen often) up through about a day and a half...so are they all right or all wrong? We shall see.



Wonder how much they will change once the 18 Z comes out later.
Quoting Dodabear:

Now what made you think he/she was mocking you????


Oh I dunno.. Reedsville... Reedzone? sounds alot like my screename. People on here always bash me for advising people to watch a certain system.
Quoting carolinamomma:


Just don't ask what the CONUS is... you will be flogged. Not flAgged, flOgged.

(ps.... I had to google it... SO GLAD I didn't ask!)


I originally thought it meant cone of uncertainty but now I realize the acronym would have made no sense.
if you don't know about something it is best not to even comment on it.

Someone has GOT to give this memo to the President, PLEASE!!

I hear Cantore rocks a mean shower curtain too...

Photobucket"
888. jipmg
Danny's COC is drifting around!
94l forecast to cane but a fish thanks to bill and danny. bermuda high has holes in it.
Quoting Bayside:


irregardless!
LOL!!!!
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


To answer your question, it's not so much the strength of Danny that will determine its East Coast impact...but rather if the CoC reforms further east or not.

The steering for all levels will yank this thing starting tomorrow mornign RAPIDLY to the NNW and the North. The upper level low over the Southeast currently is forecast to eject to the east as ridging over the western US starts to dig a trough over the Midwest.


Okay...so regardless of strength, Dannny is not going to keep moving due west for the next 2 days.
Quoting carolinamomma:


Just don't ask what the CONUS is... you will be flogged. Not flAgged, flOgged.

(ps.... I had to google it... SO GLAD I didn't ask!)


Without using google I would have to say Continental US
Is Danny being sheared? It looks worse than ever! It looks like its being stretched out like Taffy.
Quoting SaoFeng:


I was pretty close to the Blue Ash tornado maybe 5 years ago but thats about it


Thanks for posting!

I actually went to Sycamore High School which was across the street from the F4 that roared through at like 545 in the morning. Always interested in the weather, I managed to sleep through the storm, as it passed about 2 miles north of my house and there was no wind or bad weather to speak of... Scary time to have a tornado that strong.
Quoting futuremet:


Careful, you might get a ban. Me, NRAmy, P451 got banned 24hrs ago for posting the Stormtop's weather center with director JFV image
I got banned too and I didn't even post an image. I just responded conveying my amusement! Somebody has an itchy trigger finger...
Quoting FLdewey:
I hear Cantore rocks a mean shower curtain too...

Photobucket"


Are you knocking on My Little Pony now? Have you no decency?

Flagged


j/k lol
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I originally thought it meant cone of uncertainty but now I realize the acronym would have made no sense.


I'm afraid I must blindlessly disagree with you...it actually makes PERFECT sense....

CONe of UnSertainty...
Quoting carolinamomma:
Most NC news stations are reporting little or no effects expected from Danny.
So, yea.

Don't go near walmart if TS warnings are issued tonight or tomorrow.

We're close .... ....



[Link]
Quoting fmbill:


Okay...so regardless of strength, Dannny is not going to keep moving due west for the next 2 days.


Correct!
902. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is Danny being sheared? It looks worse than ever! It looks like its being stretched out like Taffy.


It looks absolutely terrible and NC does not deserve a TS watch based on how pitifully awful it looks.
Quoting NARCHER:
94l forecast to cane but a fish thanks to bill and danny. bermuda high has holes in it.


Ahhhh....look again.
Quoting reedzone:


Oh I dunno.. Reedsville... Reedzone? sounds alot like my screename. People on here always bash me for advising people to watch a certain system.


Reedville, VA on the west shore of the Chesapeake, about 70 miles from Richmond
908. jipmg
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is Danny being sheared? It looks worse than ever! It looks like its being stretched out like Taffy.


I think it has more to do with dry air? I really dont know, there isn't any significant shear over DANNY based on satellite...
i leave for an hour and all of a sudden comedy hour starts..LOL
CONUS means something completely different in Spanish Slang you know...but this isn't a biología blog, ju know mein?

Quoting IKE:


It looks absolutely terrible and NC does not deserve a TS watch based on how pitifully awful it looks.



Looks dont mean everything.
where do i get a ticket for the show?
Without looking back through all of the posts what is the current position of the COC for Danny. You could see the nekkid swirl this morning but my untrained eye cannot pick it out now.
A more Stagnant-vigorous Bermuda high in the near future.

Link
Quoting justalurker:
where do i get a ticket for the show?


Tickets are sold in Tazmanian's blog, go ask him about it.
Quoting nolacane2009:


Thank you very much. I will see if I can find it. No one here will ever have to worry about me making stupid comments though.

If you want to look up a weather term, the AMS weather glossary is here: http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary
Very useful resource for anyone, n00b through met.
I understand that the COC is aimlessly floating around and all and Danny also is somewhat farther west but I still feel like the current NHC track is absolutely on the money/on point/valid and still see Danny effecting areas/states north of Va. Still see NC & SC as being safe especially since Danny is getting ready to start moving towards the North so thats why I'm not surprised to see and advisories at all for NC and/or SC.
Quoting nolacane2009:


Without using google I would have to say Continental US


BINGO!
That TS Warning is for marine.
921. jipmg
Quoting saintsfan06:
Without looking back through all of the posts what is the current position of the COC for Danny. You could see the nekkid swirl this morning but my untrained eye cannot pick it out now.


Its so easy to pick out on visible satellite.. anyhow based on my estimation its around:

27.3N and I think 73.4W
Quoting reedzone:


Oh I dunno.. Reedsville... Reedzone? sounds alot like my screename. People on here always bash me for advising people to watch a certain system.

Just in case you didn't know, Reedville is a real town located on the central coast of Virginia.
hey flood,

good to hear from you today..as usual.
18Z SHIPS shows virtually no further strengthening with Danny as a tropical system, and only slightly when it makes the extratropical transition.

Shear holds favorable through tomorrow afternoon (<15knots) but then rapidly increases!

SHIPS DANNY


18Z SHIPS takes 94L to an 84 knot hurricane and moves it on a mostly western track over the next 5 days.
SHIPS 94L
Quoting justalurker:
hey flood,

good to hear from you today..as usual.


**bows deeply**

The pleasure is mine!
started my first met class today (I'm a met major) so maybe in 2-4 years I can add more to the blog than lame sarcasm.
This is on the latest satellite imagery page whats this about?

Danny(AL05)

Latest Satellite Imagery
Bits of Danny are spreading south, all the way down to the Turks and Caicos...why is he still here ???
i am laught so hand right now look at crazy computer models some of the models saying moving west and some computer moving wnw and nw...this is tell you that the computer models are having a hard time telling you where the storm is going..i do not think in 102 having winds over 110 mph the modles are way off.
Quoting Floodman:


**bows deeply**

The pleasure is mine!


coming down to SFLA any time soon?
some here spoke of hannah last year,, here in pinehurst nc,if any 1 here follows golf,, it washed out the road to my mothers house,, detour 4 3 months,, and a bridge was washed out in a golf community ,they had to either swim or boat to get across,, so little storms can drop 8 inches of rain , in a short time..
Classic NHC

I can see the naked swirl on the visible but its not going NW. Also all the storm action is to the east. This storm is starting to remind me of one of those that arent going to cooperate with computer models.
Quoting AllStar17:
Be careful what you say about "disorganized, sloppy, etc." Danny. He still has the chance to strengthen when the environment gets more favorable.


That is a good point
935. IKE
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
18Z SHIPS shows virtually no further strengthening with Danny as a tropical system, and only slightly when it makes the extratropical transition.

Shear holds favorable through tomorrow afternoon (<15knots) but then rapidly increases!

SHIPS DANNY


18Z SHIPS takes 94L to an 84 knot hurricane and moves it on a mostly western track over the next 5 days.
SHIPS 94L


Danny's days are numbered.

94L seems to slow to a crawl on the SHIPS data at the end of the run.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
18Z SHIPS shows virtually no further strengthening with Danny as a tropical system, and only slightly when it makes the extratropical transition.

Shear holds favorable through tomorrow afternoon (<15knots) but then rapidly increases!

SHIPS DANNY


18Z SHIPS takes 94L to an 84 knot hurricane and moves it on a mostly western track over the next 5 days.
SHIPS 94L


Looks like high pressure has now built in above Danny.

how accurate do you think NHC has danny going right now? they sure hit the nail on the head with bill!!
Quoting 21N71W:
Bits of Danny are spreading south, all the way down to the Turks and Caicos...why is he still here ???


Because he's strong enough to present with winds in the 50-60 range; disorganised in appearance or not, the energy is there
Quoting BrockBerlin:
started my first met class today (I'm a met major) so maybe in 2-4 years I can add more to the blog than lame sarcasm.


WEll you're welcome to try but lame sarcasm is about 70% of meteorology anyway. Put it into perspective, one day you will be paid to watch the earth rotate. Not a bad gig huh?
Danny still looks sad
Danny is looking rather strange. It looks like the circulation in the east-side convection is not winning the battle with the naked COC. What an odd storm this is turning out to be.
Only thing saving Danny is his winds (if they still exist) because even if the system becomes very disorganized NHC will probably not downgrade it so long as it retains T.S. winds and poses some threat to land.
Quoting justalurker:


coming down to SFLA any time soon?


I can't say for sure...we get a landfall in SFLA I might be there in a forward office or soemthing...
Quoting BrockBerlin:
started my first met class today (I'm a met major) so maybe in 2-4 years I can add more to the blog than lame sarcasm.


If nothing else, this is a good place to learn how tough a job forecasting really is. More art than science for the good ones.
Quoting ConchHondros:
Danny still looks sad


Yeah, like a deflating balloon, kinda
946. jipmg
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Danny is looking rather strange. It looks like the circulation in the east-side convection is not winning the battle with the naked COC. What an odd storm this is turning out to be.


and it wont win, thats a mid level circulation and the surface low to the west which is DANN's COC is far too strong to lose against w.e forms under those T storms
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
i am laught so hand right now look at crazy computer models some of the models saying moving west and some computer moving wnw and nw...this is tell you that the computer models are having a hard time telling you where the storm is going..i do not think in 102 having winds over 110 mph the modles are way off.


Looks like a three year old with some crayons
Quoting jipmg:


and it wont win, thats a mid level circulation and the surface low to the west which is DANN's COC is far too strong to lose against w.e forms under those T storms


makes sense...that naked coc is sure moving west though. any thoughts on when it'll make the turn? Just a delay of the inevitable?
He may not look like much at the moment, but just a few hours ago NHC said a 10% chance Danny is a cat 2 on Sat.

Quoting atmoaggie:

If you want to look up a weather term, the AMS weather glossary is here: http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary
Very useful resource for anyone, n00b through met.


Thank you so much. That is what I really like about this site everyone is so nice and informative.
Quoting justalurker:
how accurate do you think NHC has danny going right now? they sure hit the nail on the head with bill!!
Well we knew about the strong trough that was supposed to turn bill away, there was no way bill could have resisted it.
952. IKE
System moving through me here in the Florida panhandle looks better than Danny....

I find this very hard to believe. If this plays out, 2009 truly will be the year of the troughs!

Quoting Floodman:


I can't say for sure...we get a landfall in SFLA I might be there in a forward office or soemthing...
if or any make land fall here..look me up will have a beer, show you my volunteer work i do, in my sake i hope we never get hit with one.
955. IKE
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting justalurker:
if or any make land fall here..look me up will have a beer, show you my volunteer work i do, in my sake i hope we never get hit with one.


I'll do that! Landfalls are bad...been in one, Jeanne, a CAT3 and I won't stick around for a 4...I'll run with the rabbits!
Quoting Floodman:


I'll do that! Landfalls are bad...been in one, Jeanne, a CAT3 and I won't stick around for a 4...I'll run with the rabbits!


After Katrina I run for a 2
Why have they not updated 94 to a medium chance for development? There is low winds shear, not much dry air, and warm waters.
Earlier this morning I read through 400 posts here and could confirm with certainty that Danny was forming in the Atlantic.

Is this still the consensus of opinion? Have we finished the "West, East, West, East" debate and moved on to the "94L, African Wave" conversation? Are we still on the "ugly, where's the eye" point?

And most importantly, do I need to tie everything down for the weekend here on Cape Cod?

(Please note, this is an excellent site to "learn" sarcasm as well as met)
Quoting Hurricane009:
Why have they not updated 94 to a medium chance for development? There is low winds shear, not much dry air, and warm waters.


It is a medium potential.
Quoting Hurricane009:
Why have they not updated 94 to a medium chance for development? There is low winds shear, not much dry air, and warm waters.

they did go to the nhc site
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Let's see if I have this right
CMC for tracking (once something has developed - CMC too quick to develop cyclones that are not there)
SHIPS - for intensity?
?????- For pinning down where a storm will develop?

For intensity, I use a combo of SHIPS, GFDL, and HWRF, while keeping in mind that the GFDL and HWRF both tend to overdevelop storms before they are established.
963. WXHam
Danny's COC drifting a tad bit west of the track as of 1815 UTC

img src="Danny 8-29 1815 UTC" alt="" />