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Danny Dies; Erika Coming?

By: Jeff Masters 4:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2015

Tropical Storm Danny has met its demise at the hands of dry air and high wind shear, a victim of an El Niño-year atmosphere over the Caribbean that has been very hostile to hurricanes. The Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation in Danny on Monday morning, and satellite loops and radar loops show that Danny's heavy thunderstorms activity has been steadily diminishing. Danny’s remnants will continue to head west at about 15 mph over the next few days, bringing heavy rains.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Danny's remnants from the Guadaloupe/Martinique radar, taken at 12:15 pm EDT Monday, August 24, 2015. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Drought conditions in Puerto Rico as of the most recent issuance of NOAA’s Drought Monitor. Severe to Extreme drought covered all of eastern Puerto Rico, including the capital of San Juan. Image credit: National Drought Mitigation Center.

A drought helper, but not a drought buster for Puerto Rico
Danny’s remnants are expected to dump 2 - 4” of rain across portions of the drought-parched northeast Caribbean islands, which may cause localized flash flooding and mudslides Monday and Tuesday. However, these rains will not be enough to break the El Niño-driven drought that has gripped the region since this spring. Since January 1, Puerto Rico’s capital, San Juan, has received about ten inches of rain less than their usual 33” of rain. As a result, severe to extreme drought conditions have hit the region, with reservoir levels hitting their lowest levels in decades. San Juan and much of the northern coast of Puerto Rico are under water restrictions, where hundreds of thousands of households receive water only two days per week. The strong El Niño event underway in the Eastern Pacific has created an atmospheric circulation that has brought dry, sinking air to the Caribbean all summer, squelching thunderstorm activity during the traditional peak of the Caribbean rainy season. Central America is also suffering; in Guatemala, one million people are starving due to the drought, and in Honduras, ten municipalities are now officially experiencing famine.


Figure 3. MODIS image of 98L from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 9 am EDT Monday, August 24, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

98L in Central Atlantic could become Erika
In the Central Atlantic about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 98L appears poised to become the next tropical depression of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, as it steams westward at a rapid 20 mph. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that 98L had a well-developed spin and some low level spiral bands, but heavy thunderstorm activity was limited, due to dry air. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis offered by the University of Wisconsin shows plenty of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air will potentially impede development of 98L throughout the week. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are favorable for development, near 27°C, and will warm to 28°C by Wednesday. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model diagnosed moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over 98L, and predicted the shear would remain in the moderate range through at least Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90% to 98L. Steering currents for 98L are very similar to what Danny experienced, and the 8 pm EDT (0Z) Monday run of the GFS and European models showed 98L taking a track into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday night, and into the Southeast Bahamas by Saturday. Wind shear will rise to a high 15 - 25 knots by Thursday as 98L brushes the Northeast Caribbean, which should slow development or cause weakening. A trough of low pressure capable of turning 98L to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, but it is uncertain at this time whether or not 98L will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough. If so, 98L could represent a long-range threat to Bermuda or Canada next week. If not, then the Caribbean, Bahamas, and U.S. East Coast might be a target; it’s too early to narrow down the possibilities.

New tropical wave off of Africa little threat to develop
A strong tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday, and is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave has warm ocean waters and moderate wind shear, but plenty of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is interfering with development. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%.

Tropical Depression Kilo not expected to threaten Hawaii
Tropical Depression Kilo continues to mill around in the waters well west of the Hawaiian Islands, and is no longer expected to be a threat to Hawaii when the storm turns westwards away from Hawaii late this week. Outflow from Kilo brought plenty of dry, sinking air over Hawaii over the weekend, bringing sunny skies and record warm temperatures. This resulted in one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in Hawaii: a 97°F reading at Kahului on Maui Island on Saturday, August 22. According to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this ties the all-time (for any month) high for Kahului measured on Aug. 31, 1994. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, no other higher reliable temperatures have been measured in Hawaii (higher readings from an old station in Puunene, Maui in the 1950s are unreliable, and the Puunene station was closed in 1959.)

Hawaii should keep an eye on two tropical disturbances to its east, in the waters of the Eastern Pacific to the southwest of Mexico. Both of these disturbances (which were given 5-day development odds of 80% by NHC in their 8 am Monday Tropical Weather Outlook) could pose a long-range threat to Hawaii, according to the 6Z Monday run of the GFS model.

Typhoon Goni headed towards Japan
Category 3 Typhoon Goni is about to make landfall on the southern Japanese Island of Kyushu, with landfall as a Category 2 storm expected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a post up today on 98L, and plans a more in-depth one late Monday afternoon.

WUTV Takes Over The Weather Channel Beginning at 6 pm EDT Monday
The Weather Underground hits live TV today, when the inaugural episode of the Weather Underground live cable TV show airs from 6-8 p.m. EDT Monday, August 24 on The Weather Channel (TWC). I’m in Atlanta today to help launch this unique effort, which aims appeal to everyone’s inner weather geek by focusing on the science behind weather and forecasting. Hosted by Emmy-award winning TWC meteorologist Mike Bettes, the show will air Monday through Friday from 6 - 8 pm Eastern time. I expect today we’ll be discussing Invest 98L and the rest of the action in the tropics. Check out #WUTV for updates.  

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1488. Camerooski:

The cone is going to have to shift South and West, thus a landfall in Hispaniola is more likely


Fishcaster? I am just stating what is typical with east coast storms, they tend to ride up the coastline close to shore and make a B-line out to sea.
out for now may go in too lurk mod if things get to nuts in here
1503. Drakoen
Quoting 1493. mcluvincane:



As we can clearly see, most all models turn this baby NE out to sea!


As we can clearly see, a wide range of tracks stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the middle of the Atlantic is possible.
It looks like Erika is WEAKENING. This support the models trending to the west
Quoting 1491. MahFL:

Ahhhhhh !, the the PR radar went down....




Looks like they're in for an all day soaking rain, or at least half a day soaking rain, every little bit helps, they need it!
Quoting 1499. Tazmanian:




dont uesd my real name on here thanks
Okay. So what do you think about Erika.
Quoting 1490. Tazmanian:




am not over hypeing this and its not nonsense why not you fish caster go else where
Hi Taz. Any chance you could put the picture of you in the yellow raft back up? I think a lot of us liked that one better. Thanks!
Quoting 1503. Drakoen:



As we can clearly see, a wide range of tracks stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the middle of the Atlantic is possible.


Clearly, MOST models out to sea, not ALL
At the end of the day, wishcasting and speculation comes with the territory on the Blog; that is the nature of our discussions and observations. However, at the end of the day, in a real sense, what we and the general public should actually rely on and pay attention to is the official NHC 3-Day cone.
Quoting 1489. MAweatherboy1:


I agree. Some may interpret my post as "downcasting", but in reality I'm pretty concerned about this one. Notice in the plot how OFCL runs well above consensus for the first few days, but falls to middle of the pack later on as several models spike the intensity. That suggests while the next few days should be a struggle, there is high potential for RI in the Bahamas region. Hopefully it just struggles all the way, but that may be asking a lot.


I think we all better hope that the GFS is right keeping it very weak and not the ECMWF. I don't see your post as downcasting it makes sense, and in EL Nino years that area in SW Atlantic is normally where shear is the lowest, SSts are a given but that area is always a good spot in EL Nino years. Still have time for changes and hopefully for the better.
1511. FOREX
Quoting 1504. juracanpr1:

It looks like Erika is WEAKENING. This support the models trending to the west
Agree. Thunderstorms are just not there at the moment.
Quoting 1450. StormTrackerScott:

The whole model suite shifted west on this latest run. Very impressive shift west in all the models.
Hey, You seem very knowledgeable, I live in Fort Laud. do you think this is the one?
Quoting 1507. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz. Any chance you could put the picture of you in the yellow raft back up? I think a lot of us liked that one better. Thanks!



NO! your off topic
1514. FOREX
Quoting 1508. mcluvincane:



Clearly, MOST models out to sea, not ALL
Okay, you have posted this 6 times now, we get it.
Quoting 1506. HurricaneAndre:

Okay. So what do you think about Erika.


with vary light wind shear less then 5kt in the Bahamas and with deep warm waters Erika has a high Ch of be coming a strong Cat 4 or low end cat 5 in the Bahamas that is a vary nic set up i would be watching this vary closey once it enters the Bahamas has it could be a hurricane be for then
Quoting 1500. CybrTeddy:

I will point out that every time in the last ten years all of the forecast models had a strengthening hurricane pointing towards Florida >72 hours out it has, without exception, never happened. They've usually have remain weak, went OTS, died and went OTS, or have gone south. I'm not saying that will be the case here, I have no idea what Erika is going to do, but it's foolish to keep reposting model runs which only show a FL landfall if you extrapolate its current heading beyond the final frame or forecast point.
Your exactly right Erika 2012 Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor, and Issac all had a Major or hurricane making a landfall in FL... However it is better safe than sorry!
Quoting 1500. CybrTeddy:

I will point out that every time in the last ten years all of the forecast models had a strengthening hurricane pointing towards Florida >72 hours out it has, without exception, never happened. They've usually have remain weak, went OTS, died and went OTS, or have gone south. I'm not saying that will be the case here, I have no idea what Erika is going to do, but it's foolish to keep reposting model runs which only show a FL landfall if you extrapolate its current heading beyond the final frame or forecast point.


Gotta agree with you here. NHC has said even more uncertainty than usual on track, and especially intensity. Current model runs seem to support a FL hit, but thats what, a week out? Model runs change all the time. Until it clears the leewards and antilles, any forecast is subject to change dramatically. even after that point, if steering is weak as currently predicted, anywhere from FL strait to OTS is still an option.
First recon goes up today 18Z mission
To be honest I don't even think recon will be needed today
Erika not looking good at all this morning
Quoting 1516. Camerooski:

Your exactly right Erika 2012 Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor, and Issac all had a Major or hurricane making a landfall in FL... However it is better safe than sorry!


wow Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor did not make land fall in FL not sure where you got that idea from


Igor went out too sea

sandy made and fall in new york


and Irene made land fall close too new york
Quoting 1497. FOREX:


That is a good observation. That could really shred her apart with that high terrain. hmmmmmmmmmmm.

Good observation if it does stay further south Hispaniola might prevent what could happen in the Bahamas. I hate to see these people in these countries be the speed bump that protects those further north.
Lets see what the NHC says at 11:00 AM report, but I observe Erika very sad, with a certain weakening trend. Really, conditions in front of it as well as surrounding it are not as favorable, as NHC said since yesterday. If she goes through the Caribbean she will be a rather weak storm, if so. However, it could be an important rain maker for the Leewards/PR.
Quoting 1519. Tazmanian:



wow Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor did not make land fall in FL not sure where you got that idea from


Igor went out too sea

sandy made and fall in new york


and Irene made land fall close too new york
Im saying that the models had landfalls in FL....
Quoting 1517. BoroDad17:



Gotta agree with you here. NHC has said even more uncertainty than usual on track, and especially intensity. Current model runs seem to support a FL hit, but thats what, a week out? Model runs change all the time. Until it clears the leewards and antilles, any forecast is subject to change dramatically. even after that point, if steering is weak as currently predicted, anywhere from FL strait to OTS is still an option.
Actually due to Erika's speed it would only be 5-6 days out... not that long
Quoting 1518. wunderkidcayman:

First recon goes up today 18Z mission
To be honest I don't even think recon will be needed today
Erika not looking good at all this morning



i think its a good idea for the recon too go out i want too see if Erika has open back up or if it still closed and the olny way too tell is if the recon gos out it will all so help the model runs out when all the info gets put in too them from today
Quoting 1522. Camerooski:

Im saying that the models had landfalls in FL....


oh got it
now am really out guys later
Quoting 1518. wunderkidcayman:

First recon goes up today 18Z mission
To be honest I don't even think recon will be needed today
Erika not looking good at all this morning

There will probably be missions today, NOAA will be out flying a research mission today as well.
Quoting 1513. Tazmanian:




NO! your off topic


Taz you ok mate you seem a bit uptight or something buggin this morning

Btw your profile pic is not the same the TAZ we knew with the yellow raft pic seems better

You might want to think about returning to the pic

1529. Cat5WPB
Uh oh....the Xtrap has a 'cane right over my house.
Time to get my fish shower curtains ready.....

More Cape Verde development next week. This is 120 hours.
1531. Grothar
Come on now. We all that no one model could possibly depict where any system would be. This has to be confusing for bloggers who are not familiar with models. Each one has a different purpose and we all know not of ever focus on one model or one model run.

The GFS



NVG

Quoting 1519. Tazmanian:



wow Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor did not make land fall in FL not sure where you got that idea from


Igor went out too sea

sandy made and fall in new york


and Irene made land fall close too new york


Actually Irene made landfall in North Carolina first
Erika looks worst that ExDanny!!! Is DEAD!!! NOOOO!!!
Cyberteddy I couldn't have said it better. I will bet anyone dollars to doughnuts this storm goes well south and west of florida
Quoting 1524. Tazmanian:




i think its a good idea for the recon too go out i want too see if Erika has open back up or if it still closed and the olny way too tell is if the recon gos out it will all so help the model runs out when all the info gets put in too them from today


True
Watch this happen.... were all sitting here saying how Erika will be a Cat 10 making landfall in Florida... twice... but then the NHC hunters fly into Erika find no closed COC, they downgrade Erika into a TD and Erika never develops.... just watch.... :-(
Danny looks better than Erika right now LOL!

Quoting 1534. WeatherConvoy:

Cyberteddy I couldn't have said it better. I will bet anyone dollars to doughnuts this storm goes well south and west of florida
if anything it will go East of the FLA Coast
1539. ncstorm
According to the blogger in PR yesterday, Recon will be out later today to destroy Erika anyway..

So all is safe..
To me, right now Erika just qualifies as a rather weak tropical depression. Circulation center not as strong as was with Danny. At the short term this "storm" could pass to a Low.
Next possible storm soon to come off Africa looking good

1542. FOREX
Quoting 1536. Camerooski:

Watch this happen.... were all sitting here saying how Erika will be a Cat 10 making landfall in Florida... twice... but then the NHC hunters fly into Erika find no closed COC, they downgrade Erika into a TD and Erika never develops.... just watch.... :-(
I just emailed the NHC and asked them to save Americans some money and not fly into Erika today. She is a mess and not worth of tens of millions of dollars at this point.
Guys you give up to easy. Leave Erika alone and let her be. She'll be a storm in the gulf. Just stay calm.
1544. Grothar
Quoting 1537. 69Viking:

Danny looks better than Erika right now LOL!




Lol now that is shameful honestly
Quoting 1537. 69Viking:

Danny looks better than Erika right now LOL!



Here in PR the rain is minimal. Hence, not be impressed by the cloud covering the island. True, ex-Danny looks better. You can imagine now Erika will DIE SOON.
Erika looks completely horrible right now, wow, not expecting to wake up to that
1548. Grothar
AT this point, ex-Danny looks better than Erika

Hurricane Hunters scheduled to investigate Erika? Adios Erika!
If there is one thing I have learned over the years, it is not to trust the models so early and expect the unexpected. Case in point: Hurricane Ike, IMO, was way too far north to ever come pay me a visit. He was SUPPOSED to go to Florida. He came to Texas instead. Erika is still moving mostly westward and from what I have read will struggle. As far as I am concerned, everyone from Mexico to Canada is in the cone until a better consistent grip is on this system.
Quoting 1539. ncstorm:

According to the blogger in PR yesterday, Recon will be out later today to destroy Erika anyway..

So all is safe..


Lol I think I saw someone say it earlier

I think they did day

“Recon will likely fly today and put some of that chemical stuff on it like they did with Danny" I think that's how it went lol
Hopefully PR is getting some good rain!

Quoting 1548. Grothar:

AT this point, ex-Danny looks better than Erika


1553. Grothar
Quoting 1548. Grothar:

AT this point, ex-Danny looks better than Erika




I know right that's just shameful
1555. FOREX
Quoting 1547. TeleConnectSnow:

Erika looks completely horrible right now, wow, not expecting to wake up to that


They need to put Danny's floater back up and take Erika's down.
Quoting 1544. Grothar:



NO, models are considering a much more stronger system, but it is steadily weakening. This probability graph is so incorrect. NHC said favorable conditions, but you can see, that is NOT the case.
Quoting 1551. wunderkidcayman:



Lol I think I saw someone say it earlier

I think they did day

“Recon will likely fly today and put some of that chemical stuff on it like they did with Danny" I think that's how it went lol


It looks like they already did that!
I think some of you are forgetting that Erika is not expected to strengthen for a few days and be a mid to low level TS at most. Of course the GFS could be right keeping it weak, but I would not get too excited at Erika's demise yet.
Quoting 1542. FOREX:

I just emailed the NHC and asked them to save Americans some money and not fly into Erika today. She is a mess and not worth of tens of millions of dollars at this point.
Again: it doesn't cost "millions" to investigate a storm, much less "tens of millions of dollars". Can you please explain how a single flight would cost as much as the Hurricane Hunter's entire annual budget? At any rate, it would be the height of "small government" shortsightedness, ignorance, and stupidity to not investigate a storm that seems destined to affect American interests over the next week or so in order to save a few thousand taxpayer dollars. Would it not?
1560. Grothar
Quoting 1537. 69Viking:

Danny looks better than Erika right now LOL!




Honestly Viking, I didn't see your post. I was uploading to Imgur and we must have seen the same thing. Just goes to show you "Vikings" must think alike. :)
1561. nash36
Quoting 1556. juracanpr1:


NO, models are considering a much more stronger system, but it is steadily weakening. This probability graph is so incorrect. NHC said favorable conditions, but you can see, that is NOT the case.


You are forgetting it needs to clear the Leeward Islands before it reaches a better environment. What's going on now is of no surprise to anyone.
1562. Drakoen
Quoting 1542. FOREX:

I just emailed the NHC and asked them to save Americans some money and not fly into Erika today. She is a mess and not worth of tens of millions of dollars at this point.


I hope you're kidding. You do realize if they don't use the money allocated to them then they become susceptible to budget cuts?
I guess the saying is true big may not always be better
Quoting 1561. nash36:



You are forgetting it needs to clear the Leeward Islands before it reaches a better environment. What's going on now is of no surprise to anyone.


Nope, all the models keep it a disorganized mess until then.
Quoting 1539. ncstorm:

According to the blogger in PR yesterday, Recon will be out later today to destroy Erika anyway..

So all is safe..


Yes, anyway.. probably they will cancel Recon an safe some fuel...Erika not look like much at this time..

1566. Grothar
Quoting 1556. juracanpr1:


NO, models are considering a much more stronger system, but it is steadily weakening. This probability graph is so incorrect. NHC said favorable conditions, but you can see, that is NOT the case.


I did not say it was either correct or incorrect. As a matter of fact, if you read my other post, I said EXACTLY that, not to focus on any one model. And you don't know whether it is correct or incorrect either. At this point not any of the models from any source are correct. This are posted for information and comparison only. Not that any one model is depicting any one direction as the exact track.
1567. MahFL
NOAA49, Gonzo I think is airborne.

NOAA49
Quoting 1560. Grothar:



Honestly Viking, I didn't see your post. I was uploading to Imgur and we must have seen the same thing. Just goes to show you "Vikings" must think alike. :)



No worries, wouldn't it be something if that trough coming through now missed the remnants of Danny too. Could have 2 systems taking aim at the US! I doubt the trough misses Danny though, he's pretty far North now.
1569. FOREX
Quoting 1567. MahFL:

NOAA49, Gonzo I think is airborne.
fly into Danny, Not Erika.
Quoting 1561. nash36:



You are forgetting it needs to clear the Leeward Islands before it reaches a better environment. What's going on now is of no surprise to anyone.


I for one am thankful I can turn on a computer and watch it when ever I want...I went thru Hugo and had to rely on what the locals were saying...I had no way to "evacuate" as I was a single mom without a car...I would MUCH rather watch a model the says we will be hit and I have time to get ready than not know a single thing like it was 50+ years ago and not have a chance to prepare....and I love how sooooooo many people think they know more than the mets....I think there are at least 6-8 on here in the recent 2 years that need to go apply to the NHC and replace some people {please insert sarcasm here}
No shortage of warm water for #Erika to feed on. Around 30C off the coast of FL/Bahamas.
Quoting 1567. MahFL:

NOAA49, Gonzo I think is airborne.


Where you getting that I see no planes in the air
1573. FOREX
Quoting 1562. Drakoen:



I hope you're kidding. You do realize if they don't use the money allocated to them then they become susceptible to budget cuts?
I was kidding about the email.
Quoting 1469. MAweatherboy1:

"Struggle" will likely be the operative word on Erika for the next 4 days or so. 12z SHIPS illustrates this nicely. 15-25kts of shear will not support much if any strengthening. NHC intensity forecast is likely a bit too high during that timeframe, and I suspect we see it nudged down in the next couple advisories. However, once it gets near the Bahamas, it could be a different story, where waters are warm and shear could be lower. If I had to pick a model through 5 days out of this, I'd go with the LGEM.



It also should be pointed out that given how poorly it looks this morning and how it's had a tough time organizing a low level structure, it is entirely possible it at least temporarily opens back up into a wave during the next few days.

This was a great post and excellent assessment of what could happen, bear this in mind throughout the next few days.
Erika a storm that needs to be watched carefully. Several models with strong hurricane near Bahamas by the wknd.
1576. MahFL
Quoting 1569. FOREX:

fly into Danny, Not Erika.


No, it's heading east. All tasking for Danny was cancelled.

NOAA49
Its interesting to see the guy on here that flags everyone for any perceived slight calling names because some folks are in the OTS camp... I have a name for that: Hypocrite. Anyways, it's good to see the ATL tropics active. The eastern ATL looks much more moist and the train is rolling off Africa. We should get all flavors of storms - OTS, Gulf, Carib...
Quoting 1572. wunderkidcayman:



Where you getting that I see no planes in the air


Never mind I see it took off from Barbados
Big signal; New calibrated ECMWF EPS giving a 50% chance for a landfalling tropical cyclone o/the East coast 9/1-9/3.
1580. will45
NOAA high density flight underway to Erika
1581. WxLogic
Environment should get better for both the remnants of Danny and Erika as the convergent phase of the Kelvin Wave is now departing the Caribbean and a divergent phase starts to enter the stage from the GOM in the upcoming days.

Given the image below... is no wonder ex-Danny is looking better as is on the edge of the exiting convergent KW:

Quoting 1579. WeatherInterest:

Big signal; New calibrated ECMWF EPS giving a 50% chance for a landfalling tropical cyclone o/the East coast 9/1-9/3.


link please?
1583. Grothar
Quoting 1541. wunderkidcayman:

Next possible storm soon to come off Africa looking good




This one has to be named wkc. I think I will make a blog today where anyone can leave their name for the waves. Why should the NHC have all the fun.

1584. Drakoen
Probably will be "flying in the clear" for most of the flight lol
1585. FOREX
Quoting 1576. MahFL:



No, it's heading east. All tasking for Danny was cancelled.

NOAA49
I was joking.
Tropical Storm ERIKA

8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 25 2015
Location: 14.8°N 50.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting 1516. Camerooski:

Your exactly right Erika 2012 Sandy 2012 Irene, Igor, and Issac all had a Major or hurricane making a landfall in FL... However it is better safe than sorry!

And Ike!! that gave people quite a scare in S. FL.
Quoting 1583. Grothar:



This one has to be named wkc. I think I will make a blog today where anyone can leave their name for the waves. Why should the NHC have all the fun.




Nah

1589. hydrus
Quoting 1548. Grothar:

AT this point, ex-Danny looks better than Erika


Good morning..That may change if remnant Dan cannot avoid Hispaniola. Small circulations cannot survive the trip across...You knew that, but some may not.
Hmm Barbados in now in erika's floater

Also Erika is now more than 50% naked
1591. FOREX
NHC just finished their 5am meeting on Erika and their long range track confidence is still very low according to Dr. Postel from TWC.
Quoting 1589. hydrus:

Good morning..That may change if remnant Dan cannot avoid Hispaniola. Small circulations cannot survive the trip across...You knew that, but some may not.

Danny gives me a headache, still hasn't cleared Puerto Rico?!!!

Erika better pull its act together quick, I fear if it doesn't soon it could just fizzle...
Quoting 1589. hydrus:

Good morning..That may change if remnant Dan cannot avoid Hispaniola. Small circulations cannot survive the trip across...You knew that, but some may not.


The possible redeveloping LLC is on the SW side of the convection moving W it's gonna move S of Hispaniola
Tropical Storm ERIKA will open to a tropical wave like danny did!!
Quoting 1582. tiggeriffic:



link please?



They're quoting (unattributed, I might add...) @MJVentrice on Twitter. The link is here
I expect that at the 11am update, Erika will probably be a depression. She'll probably struggle till she gets further west. That's if she doesn't fizzle before then.
Is Eirka's rapid speed have anything to do with its current disorganization? Like one piece of its issues if you will?
Quoting 1594. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Storm ERIKA will open to a tropical wave like danny did!!


Nah but I think it will be weaker than forecasted and track will change quite a bit
1600. Grothar
Quoting 1568. 69Viking:



No worries, wouldn't it be something if that trough coming through now missed the remnants of Danny too. Could have 2 systems taking aim at the US! I doubt the trough misses Danny though, he's pretty far North now.


I never take my eyes off any system until it is near Greenland.
1601. SLU
Quoting 1581. WxLogic:

Environment should get better for both the remnants of Danny and Erika as the convergent phase of the Kelvin Wave is now departing the Caribbean and a divergent phase starts to enter the stage from the GOM in the upcoming days.

Given the image below... is no wonder ex-Danny is looking better as is on the edge of the exiting convergent KW:



I'm guessing thats 250mb?
Quoting 1583. Grothar:



This one has to be named wkc. I think I will make a blog today where anyone can leave their name for the waves. Why should the NHC have all the fun.




There's a wave near cape horn on September 9th 2019 that I feel bears watching. It might do the unthinkable and become a Sharkcane!
1604. Relix
Erika looking awful. I was confident in Danny making the trip but Erika's forward speed, as many systems before (I swear we have amnesia), is affecting her structure, plus ingesting drier air than she can manage. Wouldn't surprise me for it to die off soon since the structure isn't even half as good as Danny's. Still, we need the rain in PR and ex-Danny so far has been a bust, so bring it on Erika. Hopefully it survives the day.
Interesting to see we have Erika and all the different model runs on it! Certainly something interesting to watch.



Erika currently struggling with dry air and a rather quick forward speed. Tonight should see Erika beef up a little bit. Her movement speed should slow and once she crosses around 55W SSTs get up to 28-29C with higher TCHP. Plus the atmospheric cooling at night should also aid in convection during Dmax.
1606. FOREX
Quoting 1605. Envoirment:

Interesting to see we have Erika and all the different model runs on it! Certainly something interesting to watch.



Erika currently struggling with dry air and a rather quick forward speed. Tonight should see Erika beef up a little bit. Her movement speed should slow and once she crosses around 55W SSTs get up to 28-29C with higher TCHP. Plus the atmospheric cooling at night should also aid in convection during Dmax.
painful to watch right now.
Quoting 1569. FOREX:

fly into Danny, Not Erika.


I figured that was sarcasm!
1608. hydrus
1609. hydrus
1610. MahFL
Quoting 1606. FOREX:

painful to watch right now.


Don't watch then, go do something else for 24 hours.
1611. hydrus
1613. ncstorm
12z NAM is running..

33 hours and Erika is coming into view

1614. hydrus
Quoting 1593. wunderkidcayman:



The possible redeveloping LLC is on the SW side of the convection moving W it's gonna move S of Hispaniola
Its only my opinion, but if that occurs, it may be trouble.
1615. Grothar
This model is incorrect


1616. MahFL
Last frame does have some new t storms popping up on Erika :



Quoting 1605. Envoirment:

Interesting to see we have Erika and all the different model runs on it! Certainly something interesting to watch.



Erika currently struggling with dry air and a rather quick forward speed. Tonight should see Erika beef up a little bit. Her movement speed should slow and once she crosses around 55W SSTs get up to 28-29C with higher TCHP. Plus the atmospheric cooling at night should also aid in convection during Dmax.


Also Erika is also dealing with shear believe it or not 10-15kts Westerly shear
The upper level anticyclone that was once on top of Erika is now WSW of her

1618. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

1619. WxLogic
Quoting 1602. all4hurricanes:


I'm guessing thats 250mb?


At 200MB... close enough.
Good morning all! I understand that we are desperate for something to track, but apparently, some people never learn! The models are not gospel! Personally, I learned this very quickly with Wilma. The original 5-day cone in terms of Wilma's impacts on the CONUS had Wilma hitting New Orleans, and we all know how that turned out! Personally, when I do see models that show impacts this far out, it is simply a reminder to make sure I get to the store before the cone of death actually touches my area. Otherwise, I'm stuck in the midst of the non-weather obssessed crowd's hysteria! It also seems that there are some on here who might not have ever been through a hurricane! Personally, the idea of no electricity, especially no air conditioning, around the Labor Day weekend, is not one I'm happy with!
1621. FOREX
Quoting 1610. MahFL:



Don't watch then, go do something else for 24 hours.
I would, but I only have two interests, the tropics and earthquakes, so I will watch Erika no matter how difficult it is. lol
how are condition ovr P.R
1623. ncstorm
39 hours

Quoting 1615. Grothar:

This model is incorrect





Quite obvious

Quoting 1616. MahFL:

Last frame does have some new t storms popping up on Erika :






Yeah on the far out West bands
The rest of it is weakening

tropical.storm????Vis....Where?
1626. Patrap
Quoting 1616. MahFL:

Last frame does have some new t storms popping up on Erika :






Should be better this afternoon after 17z ...

You guys are giving up so easy.
VIS and RGB for Erika is very depressing
1630. Patrap
Night IR to RGB Loop

Erika

wind shear coming out from the north and dry air will hit this tropical storm maybe a t.d soon
Quoting 1627. CaribBoy:



Should be better this afternoon after 17z ...


Erika just had to get her clothes washed, and dried. She's about to go to the cleaners and get them now. She told me that she will get some bigger clothes soon too.
1633. WxLogic
ASCAT as of 13:10Z:



Max winds of 35kts (~40mph) and not as fully closed as one would had expected.
Erika gets a star


Gonzo flight pattern today


Quoting 1611. hydrus:


i am going to say wow
Quoting 1606. FOREX:

painful to watch right now.


What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.
Quoting 1630. Patrap:

Night IR to RGB Loop

Erika




Depressing

Erika still moving W
Quoting 1630. Patrap:

Night IR to RGB Loop

Erika


Go Erika. Go Erika.
1640. ncstorm
45 hours

Quoting 1622. chrisdscane:

how are condition ovr P.R


cloudy in metro area, not raining / very occ. rain, hope it rains in reservoirs & tributaries
1642. tutanka
Is it just me or does Ex-Danny look more impressive than Erika at this point?
i said before Erika will be a tropical wave soon!
Quoting 1633. WxLogic:

ASCAT as of 13:10Z:



Max winds of 35kts (~40mph) and not as fully closed as one would had expected.


Wow it's worse than I thought
1645. ackee
Ericka needs to slow down this could be another Chantal weaker it remains the more west it will go
Quoting 1642. tutanka:

Is it just me or does Ex-Danny look more impressive than Erika at this point?


A good amount of people thinking it
1647. FOREX
Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.
Not sure why you had to single me out, but ok. Personally I just enjoy watching the beauty of the development of these systems from just a few clouds to what Danny was just a few days ago. I certainly would not want anyone to lose their home or their life over a stupid storm however.
Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.
The naked truth.Sick people.
Quoting 1622. chrisdscane:

how are condition ovr P.R


On the west and southwestern corner is overcast,wind around 10mph mostly from the east..temp 86F. Some bands of rain approaching from the Southeast...very few drops so far.

On the eastern corner is another story, nice need it rain falling on the Yunque National Rain Forest moving into the metropolitan area of San Juan. Looks like more rain bands are developing on the southern coast heading inland.





1650. ncstorm
54 hours




Tropical Storm ERIKA maybe a tropical wave soon!!
Quoting 1649. DustyBlueSky:



On the west and southwestern corner is overcast,wind around 10mph mostly from the east..temp 86F. Some bands of rain approaching from the Southeast...very few drops so far.

On the eastern corner is another story, nice need it rain falling on the Yunque National Rain Forest moving into the metropolitan area of San Juan. Looks like more rain bands are developing on the southern coast heading inland.








How did you get that sat image send me link
1654. WxLogic
Quoting 1644. wunderkidcayman:



Wow it's worse than I thought


Updated the screenshot which shows a bigger 35kts winds swath to the ESE of the "center" but still lacking... but I agree worst than originally thought.
Quoting 1615. Grothar:

This model is incorrect




I really don't comment that much, but I just had to on this one. That really made me choke on my coffee.
1656. hydrus
I,m wondering besides dry air affecting Erika, if the outflow and upwelling from when Danny was a major is playing a role with this weakening..Too bad we do not have radiosondes out there.
Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.

The fact that conditions are good in the Bahamas if Erika manages to get there is not wishcasting, that is describing what might actually happen if it was to get there. No one wants death and destruction but to ignore the possibility of this scenario is no better then wishcasting in itself. I am glad Danny is bringing rain to PR and hopefully Erika stays weak.
Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.

I understand, its the thrill of the chase. The excitement of what mother nature can do. I do not think most people here really want these storms to cause death and destruction, at least not to their town... :-p
Quoting 1622. chrisdscane:

how are condition ovr P.R
Winds about 150mph now.We expect 30 inches of rain.San Juan in is now been destroy.The airport is completely covered by water.
Quoting 1648. prcane4you:

The naked truth.Sick people.


I'm sorry, but I have to speak up! I have been lurking on this blog for close to a decade, and commenting at random times for the past 4 years! Never, never, never have I seen ANYONE want to see a hurricane cause death and destruction. Most of us here simply enjoy watching the storms develop and hope that they recurve! Your statement is blatantly unfair!
To me, NHC should downgrade Erika to just a remnant today
Bryan Norcross- Facebook Update:
_________________________________________________ _______________________

Welcome to Hurricane Season

So it's time to wake up from your hurricane slumber. Tropical Storm Erika's cone is aimed in the direction of Florida. There are a number of reasonable scenarios on how this is going to come out: from nothing at all, to beneficial rain, to a significant storm making landfall, to a big storm just missing the east coast. On the current timetable, the weather would start deteriorating in South Florida on Sunday, if the system comes that way. It would take longer to get farther north because it would likely be moving fairly slowly at that time.
All that's required now is to be sure your hurricane supplies and plans are in place. Know what you'd do if a storm were to come.

Right now, Erika is poorly organized. It's not even clear where the center is. That means that the models are only guessing. If you don't know what the weather is now, you can't have confidence in the forecast for the future. NOAA is sending their jet to measure the atmosphere around Erika, and Hurricane Hunters will fly into the storm this afternoon. After that we'll have a better idea what's going on. In any case, however, the forecast will be fuzzy for a while. Hurricane forecast models don't do well with disorganized systems.

The National Hurricane Center's track cone and forecast intensity is a compromise between the models that say the storm is going to move north of the mountainous Caribbean Islands and get quite strong over the Bahamas or near Florida. Other models say that the atmospheric conditions are not favorable for a hurricane-strength storm, and so a weaker storm on a more southern track could be disrupted the mountains. The result would be something between a tropical storm and a somewhat gusty rainstorm by the time it got to Florida.

If you're new to this hurricane business, welcome to hurricane season. The most important things to know are: 1) Things can change fast so you have to keep up with the latest information -- the forecast can suddenly get more ominous or the threat can suddenly diminish, and 2) It's a lot easier to prepare and make a plan ahead of time than it is when everybody else is suddenly in a frenzy.
Quoting 1660. ProphetessofDoom:



I'm sorry, but I have to speak up! I have been lurking on this blog for close to a decade, and commenting at random times for the past 4 years! Never, never, never have I seen ANYONE want to see a hurricane cause death and destruction. Most of us here simply enjoy watching the storms develop and hope that they recurve! Your statement is blatantly unfair!

And there are some people here that take some of the comments way too seriously. It is very hard to see the smile, smirk on their face, the tone of the voice, the laughter after they type their comments.... And then there are the serious ones that we have to worry about.... :-p
Quoting 1565. DustyBlueSky:



Yes, anyway.. probably they will cancel Recon an safe some fuel...Erika not look like much at this time..


Be careful what you say -- the Old Man is watching! :-)
Most people on here want a storm to develop and get as strong as possible and come to where they live. Like the Metallica song "Sad But True". Even Mets like myself want up to a Cat 2-3 to come but not give a direct hit on them, but a brushing up to a cat 1 to where their house isn't ripped apart and have the Storm go into a less populated location near them. No one should really want a direct hit from a Cat 3 and above.
1666. JRRP
1667. ncstorm
69 hours

1668. Grothar
I'm in the cone

So much for Erika being a remnant, lol
Quoting 1656. hydrus:

I,m wondering besides dry air affecting Erika, if the outflow and upwelling from when Danny was a major is playing a role with this weakening..Too bad we do not have radiosondes out there.

What a waste of time. Is this deserve to be tracking?
Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.

RIP
1672. ncstorm
I suggest if you haven't yet to go out there now and like Bryan Norcross FB page..

The guy knows this hurricane business all too well..

Oh My! Seriously, listen, I have lived in South Florida all my life. I have lived through MANY storms and weather anomalies. Being in one of the most vulnerable states for Hurricanes and intrigued in what makes a storm "tick" shouldn't make anyone on here subject to such rubbish remarks ("people wanting death and destruction"). I enjoy watching these storms form and learning about the process. If you can't hang then why come here. Read the blog and go. Its just that simple. I for one may be uncomfortable with what I'm learning and what may be impacting me personally but reality is, no one has any control, things will be what their going to be. All you can do is learn and do what you gotta do to protect yourself and family.

-Signed, a weather obsessed "lurker"
Quoting 1666. JRRP:


Ay bendito,tracking this poor thing.
1675. ncstorm
Quoting 1668. Grothar:

I'm in the cone




Good luck!!
Quoting 1670. prcane4you:

What a waste of time. Is this deserve to be tracking?


updwelling is almost nonexistant. Danny was really small AND was moving around 10-12mph in this general location. Danny would of had to move less than 5mph and be more of a larger system in size
Those who are calling RIP and remnant what was your expectation of Erika today?
1678. ncstorm
Florida..I repeat Florida is officially in the cone..

Death Con 3 has been activated..
To those giving up on Erika, the NHC stated during the beginning stages of this being declared an invest that conditions would become less favorable down the road, Levi also pointed this out in his video. The conditions past the Leewards and into the Bahamas are much more favorable than they are where Erika is now.
I'm not sure that this is a tropical cyclone... we can see practically the entire thing now, and I don't see a well defined center.

1681. WxLogic
Quoting 1656. hydrus:

I,m wondering besides dry air affecting Erika, if the outflow and upwelling from when Danny was a major is playing a role with this weakening..Too bad we do not have radiosondes out there.



I don't believe so... the temperatures are warm enough to at least be able to sustain convection and is expected that by tomorrow it should be in warmer waters:

Quoting 1660. ProphetessofDoom:



I'm sorry, but I have to speak up! I have been lurking on this blog for close to a decade, and commenting at random times for the past 4 years! Never, never, never have I seen ANYONE want to see a hurricane cause death and destruction. Most of us here simply enjoy watching the storms develop and hope that they recurve! Your statement is blatantly unfair!

Why do you think I ignored him. Sorry PRcane...
Quoting 1668. Grothar:

I'm in the cone




Oh no! Get to Walmart, Home Depot, and Publix today before the non-weather geeks find out!

(Sorry, couldn't help it!)
Quoting 1663. MiamiNative:


And there are some people here that take some of the comments way too seriously. It is very hard to see the smile, smirk on their face, the tone of the voice, the laughter after they type their comments.... And then there are the serious ones that we have to worry about.... :-p


That is very true; however, there is definitely a small segment of users here who actually believe that some of us hurricane-obssessed people actually do want to see death and destruction! Personally, after going through every South Florida storm since Andrew, I've experienced too much of that! I just want a beautiful satellite image to ooh and aah at!
Quoting 1668. Grothar:

I'm in the cone


Soon no cone at all.
Quoting 1655. soclueless:


I really don't comment that much, but I just had to on this one. That really made me choke on my coffee.


Disclaimer: Put your coffee away before you look at this photo....!

Most probably they make that "run" expecting a stronger system...that's is not what this photo clearly shows...

Quoting 1656. hydrus:

I,m wondering besides dry air affecting Erika, if the outflow and upwelling from when Danny was a major is playing a role with this weakening..Too bad we do not have radiosondes out there.



There doesn't appear to be any upwelling from Danny, if anything SSTs are a bit warmer:



Erika was expected to be quite weak for the time being, so it'll likely pulse like many weak tropical systems do. Wane during the day and then come to life at night. Conditions should become better over the next 12-24 hours as it moves over warmer waters and its forward speed should slow down a little too. I think tonight Erika will put on a little show.
Quoting 1671. CaribBoy:

Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.

RIP


No RIP yet... Clearly the storm was forecast to be this weak right now. Are you a met/expert?
Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.


Long time lurker, very few times poster. I just needed to say this (as I've had to say a couple of times before to the same kind of comment) I don't deny it, I LOVE BAD WEATHER, I don't need to make excuses or explain myself to others... I DO wish it comes my way and enjoy it when it does. I understand people die and loose property but I'm not paying to have a storm come my way nor does me enjoying it (or lack of) have any effect on it's course. I enjoy it, that's it.

Back to lurking.

Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.

kinda like that symbol of death and destruction that is your user icon... it's sickening. how can you glorify interesting, yet deadly, weather phenomena like that.  you should change it to a kitty cat or a rainbow before someone gets the wrong idea.
1690. FOREX
Was the NHC cone moved more South and West with the 11am update? It seemed to be.
Quoting 1668. Grothar:

I'm in the cone




Congratulations!!

Quoting 1637. pipelines:



What's painful to watch is all you wishcasters that want Erika to strengthen..... it's sickening. Why do you people want death and destruction so badly? If that's what you want, destroy your own house, don't wish it on other people.


I have never seen another blogger wish destruction on another. Wanting a storm to strengthen is not equitable with wanting destruction of another person's property.
1693. ncstorm
If the NHC doesn't declare a storm then they have no idea what they are doing..

If the NHC doesn't deactivate a storm then they have no idea what they are doing..

WU Blog Logic..
1694. ncstorm
last frame of the NAM

Well, if this ever panned out at least it'd be staying offshore. Could be the maritimes' problem down the road. Mind you this is the euro and the GFS has a much different outlook at the moment. Not to mention this would be for September 4th.

11 knots shear from the North per SHIPS shouldn't be almost exposing the center, but the satellite doesn't lie. CIMMS TPW suggests maybe a smidge of dry air isn't helping. GFDL and HWRF bullish on 5 day intensification, latest SHIP is 'meh'.
Quoting 1668. Grothar:

I'm in the cone




Me too!!!
1698. nash36
Quoting 1691. washingtonian115:

Why are you people here talking down to people who likes watching storms? No one said anything about wanting destruction.The evolution of these storms are interesting.So F you on that one.


Eloquently put.
1699. ncstorm
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 3 new photos.
10 mins · Edited ·

Tropical Storm Erika has changed little in strength this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph. Some slow strengthening during the next 48 hours is possible.

Erika is centered about 730 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west near 20 mph. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
Erika looks sick. Maybe just having a bad d-min? Is Erika's poor appearance more significant than that?
Quoting 1687. WeatherLover213:



No RIP yet... Clearly the storm was forecast to be this weak right now. Are you a met/expert?


No, he's CaribBoy, desperately searching for rains that the Caribbean has been lacking in. Considering most things have RIP-ed upon entering the Atlantic, you have to understand his pessimism.
Quoting 1695. win1gamegiantsplease:

Well, if this ever panned out at least it'd be staying offshore. Could be the maritimes' problem down the road. Mind you this is the euro and the GFS has a much different outlook at the moment. Not to mention this would be for September 4th.




You guys need to STOP looking at models past 5 days. The current situation with Erika is Another great example to watch current conditions and short range model runs up to 3 days. Models change run to run after 3 days... and only go up to 5 days if the GFS and Euro agree.
S shape :)

Quoting 1691. washingtonian115:

Why are you people here talking down to people who likes watching storms? No one said anything about wanting destruction.The evolution of these storms are interesting.So F you on that one.

Appreciation is nothing like wishing destruction. I agree, it's not sick to watch a storms formation and appreciate it for what it is. Plus, there's always the fact that they tend to hit drought ridden areas. And look what is in that cone, PR and South Florida.
No changes with 11am advisory

But I'm not starting an argument, that's my opinion.
1707. nash36
Keep in mind ALL of the models are crap when you have a poorly organized system. In other words, throw 'em out. It's all a crapshoot right now.
I think Erika is going to put the blog in agony for a bit, much like Chantal of 2013. I remember Chantal being completely cloudless during the daytime and then overnight made a recovery and she essentially did that for 2-3 days in a row. Hopefully Erika will strengthen enough to not be affect too much by Dmin by the time it gets to the islands so it can give them some decent rains to help with their drought.
Quoting 1677. sporteguy03:

Those who are calling RIP and remnant what was your expectation of Erika today?

Crickets...
My concern with Erika is that the storm may not increase in strength until it reaches the area around the Bahamas. If tracks manage to point to the SE CONUS there will be a massive impact to property and (hopefully not lives)
1711. ncstorm
Quoting 1709. sporteguy03:


Crickets...


they will be back..they aren't on right now, they went to the grocery to load up on Vienna Sausages and Sardines..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1703. CaribBoy:

S shape :)


Yes,letter S means SHEAR
...The dynamical guidance indicates that the future
environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by
marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear...

...Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast...

...The official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left
of the multi-model consensus... confidence in the track forecast late in
the period is low...

Not looking too good for Erika for sure
Erika is going to Struggle the next few days. As I said last night, the speed of Erika and sinking air, low humidity and somewhat drier air in the midlevels is compressing T-Storm development. She needs to slow down a bit so her upper level outlfow can breathe better and get into more of a humid enviroment to aid in the T-Storm development. Also a weaker Erika or TD (as I expect by 5 or 11) will move slightly more west and could actually run into PR and Hispaniola by Friday-Saturday
Erika is more of a ...watch it every 12hrs instead of minute by minute system.
1717. hydrus
12Z GFS not doing much with Erika thus far still early in the run though.
1719. Patrap
Quoting 1685. DustyBlueSky:



Disclaimer: Put your coffee away before you look at this photo....!

Most probably they make that "run" expecting a stronger system...that's is not what this photo clearly shows...



Not the strength of the cone...wasn't expecting the comment by Gro . Just struck me as funny.
1721. ackee
Ericka needs to slow down this could be another Chantal weaker it remains the more west it will go
1722. GPTGUY
https://www.youtube.com/embed/r2oG7nHpu4o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen>
1723. GPTGUY

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r2oG7nHpu4o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen>
1724. GPTGUY
a href="http://" target="_blank">Link
1725. GPTGUY
<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r2oG7nHpu4o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen>