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Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

Hurricane Danielle continues on its steady northwesterly path towards Bermuda, as a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. However, the hurricane has had its troubles this morning--Danielle wrapped a significant amount of dry air into its core between 4am - 8am EDT this morning, and Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops warmed late this morning, indicating that this dry air reduced the vigor of Danielle's thunderstorms. Danielle has managed to quickly mix out most of this dry air and reform its broken eyewall early this afternoon, as seen on recent visible satellite imagery (Figure 1.) We'll get a better idea of Danielle's intensity on Friday afternoon, when the first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled. The storm is still too far from land to reach with their airplanes today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle. A huge thunderstorm has blown up on the west side of the eyewall, giving the hurricane a rather lopsided appearance.

Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Danielle, Earl, and a new tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (possibly to be designated 97L?)

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle's. As Earl enters the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is steering Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwestward towards Bermuda.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank has moved away away from the Mexican coast, and does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are my posts hidden


Negative Keeper, Loud and Clear

My last post was devoured by the blog. I'm probably hidden for some.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:




So I say near 3 days out that we def need to monitor GOM and maybe western Caribbean.. Going to be a lot of energy going through there.. Levi has been pointin this out the last few days.. So its possible for something to form..



Heres the current wind shear map.. Right now its too strong.. But the first graphic gives u a hint that it will get better soon.. So we will wait and c what will happen..


Thanks for catching me up to what's going on in the GOM, looks like we're in for a wet spell again!
3503. IKE
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN
MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Nice to see all of these storms are going out to sea other wise we would have a real mess.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 43.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 43.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY


Thank you once again.
what do you think the newforcast will be like? for danielle
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are my posts hidden


KOG~~ Nope I see them.Are mine?
sheri
Quoting 69Viking:


Thanks for catching me up to what's going on in the GOM, looks like we're in for a wet spell again!


Ur welcome.. and yes some parts of the GOM will be gettin off and on showers for a few days.. But right now there is slight chance towards end of August and into the start of September.. Plus we got some active train of waves will be coming coming off of africa..

Well I g2g for now.. might be back soon.. ttyl
07L/TS/E/CX
MARK
Happy B'Day to Storm, today it is special,
All day he will get his best wishes.
But he continues to watch to keep us safe,
So we'll know which are and are not fishes!

Master Chief he is called, to no ones surprise,
He watches the tropics, near and far,
We know his passion, is not only forecasting,
But also his badass car!

Every day he is challenged, by many on site,
That he's not what he claims to be,
But to them I say, what right to complain,
On a blog that's given for Free!

So Master Chief, my salute is to you,
For all you continue to share,
You sacrific much and give us your all,
Take a break and go find your chair!

Happy B'Day sir! Many thanks from your friend
in Texas.


D is hooking right. I hope this is the turn, not a jog.
This is a list of all storms that hit Florida that previously passed withing 50 miles of Danielle's current position:
3518. Relix
Indeed...

Ear dropped .2N

It was 15.9 in the 5AM report. It's at 15.7 now. Ok, time to get ready and shave my head. I am bracing for impact now! =P
Quoting CrazyDuke:
D is hooking right. I hope this is the turn, not a jog.


ever thought that when those beloved models were forecasting hurricane danielle as a 2 possible 3 to hook that they took into consideration the flattening out of the trof, the impact of the H, the steering layers, the warmer waters, and the stronger intensity?

The bigger the storm, the slower the turn. BTW there is a disclaimer that the forecast average error is 200 nm.

I hope the fish casters are right for the sake of those who could be in danger and not for the sake of their own pride.
3522. Prgal
Quoting Relix:
Indeed...

Ear dropped .2N

It was 15.9 in the 5AM report. It's at 15.7 now. Ok, time to get ready and shave my head. I am bracing for impact now! =P

LOL, you might have to shave your head. Relix, you mentioned a group in FB. What's the name of the group? Is it weather related? TIA
3524. Jax82
The brief movement WSW from Danielle was just a wobble, she is obviously moving in the general NW direction. This is typical of intense hurricanes to wobble like this.


NW Atlantic Surface Winds
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This is a list of all storms that hit Florida that previously passed withing 50 miles of Danielle's current position:

Yes your are right but danielle isnt one of them.
3528. Legion
Apocalypse is fallinstorms/primadonnagirl.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go to the cupboard take ur meds from the shelf open meds remove one put in mouth take with water wait 15 mins try posting again


The only thing that responding to posts like that does is make them post more. Please just ignore.....
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.
Hallelujah!
3532. Relix
Quoting Prgal:

LOL, you might have to shave your head. Relix, you mentioned a group in FB. What's the name of the group? Is it weather related? TIA


It's a group. Search Temporada de Huracanes and it should appear.
3533. TGTTX
Happy Birthday, Senior Chief!

Have a great day. You obviously have a horde of lurking fans! Beware the paparazzi.
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

He'd have to come in crazy south of what everyone expects....
Anyone have any theories with 97L and how both Danielle and Earl could possible limit its development? One thing I do believe 97L will not have to worry about battling dry air, at least not near to the extent of which Danielle and Earl had to go through. Those two definitely moistened up the environment out ahead of 97L, they also churned up waters as well.
3536. Prgal
Quoting Relix:


It's a group. Search Temporada de Huracanes and it should appear.


Thanks!


on the turning away from the pain and sorrow
3538. Relix
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Storm I see you said you expect the track to continue like this for the next 72 hours. Earl just dropped .2N (COC relocation???). Do you think it does have a good chance of at least a direct impact in the VI and PR? I said it would be unlikely yesterday but the due west movement and latitude dropping has me a bit worried. And with Danielle moving sightly more West than expected the ridge will keep closing and push Earl towards our area. What do you say Mr. Party Man? (it's your birthday! Heck you shouldn't be working haha)
That latest forecast track for Earl has him coming awfully close to the Northern Islands. If I lived there I would be keeping an extremely close eye on him. Only a slight shift South and you are in the danger zone.



BTW, is it just me or is WeatherUnderground extremely slow the last few days? Any other site I go to is running at normal speed, but WU has been slow to load the last couple of days. Just me or anyone else experiencing this problem?
3542. FLdewey
Dixie chicks will be deployed if needed.

`Cause Earl had to DIE!`
If you read my previous posts, I've already touched on most of what you brought up.
3546. IKE
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT
AND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE
EYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT
AND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW
BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE
MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION
AT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N
LATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER
RECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER
RECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN
IT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
OUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE
96-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.9N 59.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 27.9N 60.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 61.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 60.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 34.3N 57.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 38.0N 52.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 46.0N 28.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.



StormW~~Happy Birthday, We thank you for all you do on here for us. I hope you have a wonderful day, go have fun.
sheri
3549. IKE
Quoting CajunTexan:
That latest forecast track for Earl has him coming awfully close to the Northern Islands. If I lived there I would be keeping an extremely close eye on him. Only a slight shift South and you are in the danger zone.



BTW, is it just me or is WeatherUnderground extremely slow the last few days? Any other site I go to is running at normal speed, but WU has been slow to load the last couple of days. Just me or anyone else experiencing this problem?


I haven't had any problems.
Happy Birthday, Storm!
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Hey Storm....we would forgive you if you took the day off and had a few fruity drinks with umbrellas in them. If anyone deserves to kick back it is you my friend.
Quoting CajunTexan:
That latest forecast track for Earl has him coming awfully close to the Northern Islands. If I lived there I would be keeping an extremely close eye on him. Only a slight shift South and you are in the danger zone.



BTW, is it just me or is WeatherUnderground extremely slow the last few days? Any other site I go to is running at normal speed, but WU has been slow to load the last couple of days. Just me or anyone else experiencing this problem?


I think they are doing some upgrades. The next version actually includes more experienced METS that use more than models for tools.
3553. srada
However, satellite loop imagery (water vapor) indicates the trof continues to dive toward Danielle, and this flow SHOULD change shortly, and I would expect, most likely before noon, the much anticipated turn toward the north should begin to take place.

Hey StormW..HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

are you perhaps hinting at something or am I reading that wrong?


zoom in of filling eye
Quoting CajunTexan:
That latest forecast track for Earl has him coming awfully close to the Northern Islands. If I lived there I would be keeping an extremely close eye on him. Only a slight shift South and you are in the danger zone.



BTW, is it just me or is WeatherUnderground extremely slow the last few days? Any other site I go to is running at normal speed, but WU has been slow to load the last couple of days. Just me or anyone else experiencing this problem?

yea i have noticed it takes a little time to load but everything else is ok.
D looks to have slowed down in the last couple of frames...and the eye is now in the eastern side. does that act sort of like a counterweight....I thought it would jog north by now. should I be concerned??
3557. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Happy Birthday, Dewey!

Where's the cake!
Storm.. thanks for you always very informative updates......

You mentioned future storms in 7 - 10 days may track further west. Is this because the current trough that is guiding Danielle to the NW / N and then NE will move on out ?
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Great read Storm. Happy Birthday!
3560. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
Happy Birthday, Dewey!


Bet that doesn't go anywhere. LOL
3561. Melagoo
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
I am glad everyone agrees danielle is going west.
Thank you all
97L looks like its about to wrap up. I think it is slowly becoming better organized.
3565. srada
Quoting Melagoo:
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...DANIELLE STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


So is 60.00 the oh oh number..if she makes it there or past it, should the EC be worried then? Im learning so bear with me?
Quoting StormW:


As long as they don't mess up my Jaguar and Maserati


Happy Birthday Storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3567. ssmate
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.
Thanks Storm. Have a great day!
Darn, another missing post. Anyway, good morning/afternoon/evening guys. Happy Birthday, Storm! Relix, thanks for the Facebook group info. Will join in a bit. And are you ready to sport a brand new 'do?
3565

There is no doubt Danielle is going way past 60West.Don't listen to the fishcasters.
3570. kwgirl
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!
The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth!

HURRICANE DANIELLE/TS EARL/97L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 27, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.
Thanks for the imformative update. And Happy Birthday!
OMG chances that Earl affects the NE carib are increasing.... center is down at 15.7N!!!
Quoting apocalyps:
3565

There is no doubt Danielle is going way past 60West.Don't listen to the fishcasters.

hear this d will not pass 60.55 west the turning away has commenced
the eye of Danielle jumped 5 miles SW.
3576. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:
We interupt the Wishing Storm a Happy Birthday Blog to bring you the 11AM updated track for Danielle:



Now back to wishing Storm a Happy Birthday....


okay..so it looks about 63W would be the tell all according to the NHC map if Danielle deviates and misses the trough..
Great read Storm btw :).
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...
Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


A fish storm is a storm that goes out to sea without affecting any landmasses. A wish caster is someone who states something is going to happen with a tropical system without any evidence what so ever.
Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


One that stays out to sea. Doesn't affect land...

1 fish, 2 fish, red fish, blue fish!
Quoting Relix:


Storm I see you said you expect the track to continue like this for the next 72 hours. Earl just dropped .2N (COC relocation???). Do you think it does have a good chance of at least a direct impact in the VI and PR? I said it would be unlikely yesterday but the due west movement and latitude dropping has me a bit worried. And with Danielle moving sightly more West than expected the ridge will keep closing and push Earl towards our area. What do you say Mr. Party Man? (it's your birthday! Heck you shouldn't be working haha)


As expected Relix

ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting caribouqueen:
I'm brand new actually posting here, but live in FL so I follow every storm.

Curiousity is killing me - a wishcaster is someone who hopes a storm will hit the US?

And what the heck is a fishcaster or a fish storm...


You will learn there are all kind of casters on here, fishcaster is someone who always says the storm is going out to sea.

Wishcasters want the storms to come to where they're at.

Nolacasters are people who always say the bad ones are going to NOLA and there is usually numerous Katrina references.

FLcasters are the same as NOLAcasters just change it from LA to FL

I'm a fish wishcaster, I want them all to go out to sea.
Quoting apocalyps:
Florida and texas are not out of the woods with Danielle.

come on there is like a 20% chance(if even so high) that Hurricane Danielle will hit Florida or Texas.
3585. JRRP
Quoting apocalyps:
Florida and texas are not out of the woods with Danielle.


did they move the state of texas to the middle of the atlantic?
3588. SQUAWK
Now that qualifies as a cluster!!!

Quoting DestinJeff:


Dats a cane right dere.
Quoting JRRP:
Pretty far south on Fiona's track....
3591. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG chances that Earl affects the NE carib are increasing.... center is down at 15.7N!!!


Residents of the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico should REALLY think about tidying up some plans this weekend.

Earl's forecast to be 115mph at that time and in my opinion, further southward adjustments will be needed.
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG chances that Earl affects the NE carib are increasing.... center is down at 15.7N!!!


Yeah, the 11am has made me feeling a little more uneasy.
3596. Relix
Quoting Josihua2:

come on there is like a 20% chance(if even so high) that Hurricane Danielle will hit Florida or Texas.


You are just giving him attention. It's impossible (0%!) that Danielle impacts any of those states.
3597. tkeith
Quoting SaintPatrick:


did they move the state of texas to the middle of the atlantic?
nah...they been talkin about seceeding(check spelling) from the union but I dont think they have re-located geographically ;)
I went to bed last night after the 11PM advisory came out for D.--At that time after
watching the Sat. loops, and reading the NHC
between the lines fcst saying they wanted to
"wait and see"..I had a feeling D. was going past Cat 3..Thank goodness she's fcst to hook a right!
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT
Earl appears to be losing his elongated structure, which will aid in any attempts to strengthen.
Quoting NASA101:


Apocalyps:

You have been making some real nonsensical remarks on here - pure wishcasting without any reason/facts! YOU are a buffoon SIR!!!

thank you i agree.
3603. Prgal
new blog
Quoting Relix:


You are just giving him attention. It's impossible (0%!) that Danielle impacts any of those states.
true and duly noted!
3605. tkeith
Quoting CaribBoy:
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT


hmmm...thats not good
3606. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
We interupt the Wishing Storm a Happy Birthday Blog to bring you the 11AM updated track for Danielle:



Now back to wishing Storm a Happy Birthday....
Good morning Destin Jeff. The tropics are starting to get very busy. This is a graph showing when the actual peak of hurricane season occurs.
Quoting Josihua2:

thank you i agree.


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Earl appears to be losing his elongated structure, which will aid in any attempts to strengthen.


Damn, I walked late into class :\
3610. rljack
Happy Birthday Storm. Thank you for everything you do for us wundergrounders! You are awesome!
Quoting apocalyps:


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west

come on you have been a part of the blog for 3 years u should be able to answer your own question.

Quoting apocalyps:


I agree,love you all.Is it not strange danielle just jumped to the west
Time: 15:43:30Z
Coordinates: 26.8333N 60.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,953 meters (~ 9,688 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 979.4 mb (~ 28.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 0° at 73 knots (From the N at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 11.3°C* (~ 52.3°F*)
Dew Pt: ////°C* (~ °F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 knots (~ 85.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 64 knots (~ 73.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
Thanks for the explanations! I don't have enough knowledge to predict a storm path, I just don't want them anywhere near me. I had damage from Charlie, Frances, and Jean and that was my first year living here and I have never been so scared in all my life.
Good morning guys wow Danielle is a CAT 4

hmm also what I am seeing is that the high north of Earl is pushing W-WSW and trying to meeting with the other just west of Danielle this may shift Earl WSW

I'm thinking Danielle will soon undergo EWRC.
3618. wxhatt
** New Blog **
Quoting wxhatt:


I see that, maybe all the High Pressure Systems will get together and put a blockade on these storms and keep them out to sea hopefully!


How can Earl be kept out to sea if he's pushed to the wsw. Seems that if this happens the path would be toward the islands, wouldn't it?
3620. wxhatt
Quoting palmasdelrio:


How can Earl be kept out to sea if he's pushed to the wsw. Seems that if this happens the path would be toward the islands, wouldn't it?


Was Just Wishful Thinking...
Quoting wxhatt:


Was Just Wishful Thinking...


Yeah. Me too. I don't want to go through another Hugo or George.
3622. hcubed
Quoting CaribBoy:
A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT


Oh noes! It's forecast to enter the dreaded Hebert box!
3623. flsky
Quoting rljack:
Happy Birthday Storm. Thank you for everything you do for us wundergrounders! You are awesome!

Just out of curiosity, how did everyone know it was Storm's birthday??
Wishcasting/fishcasting are pejorative terms used to accuse someone of one of essentially two "sides" of the same logical fallacy: Wishful Thinking They are often used in an ad-hominem attacks on this board, but not always.

Appeal to consequences is also often used in conjunction with this; Some variation of "You all want people to die!" is one of the most common.

A "fish storm" is a term that evolved out of comments that the major consequence of such a storm is only that it would spin a bunch of fish around, a fish spinner, i.e. not a threat to anything important (ignoring maritime and avionic interests).

...And, before I forget for the forth time before hitting post: Happy birthday StormW!
Can anyone say where the coc of Earl is right now? It doesn't seem to be moving toward the west anymore but rather wnw.