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Danielle forms; extreme heat record for Palestine; south Pakistan flooding worsens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

Tropical Storm Danielle is slowly strengthening over the mid-Atlantic Ocean, and appears destined to become a hurricane by Tuesday. However, Danielle is not a threat to any land areas, and will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. Danielle is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type of storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is embedded in a moist environment--conditions which favor intensification into a hurricane by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and a new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa this morning (right side of image.)

Forecast for Tropical Storm Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Storm Danielle more to the northwest by the middle of this week, keeping Danielle well to the east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but is currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Both the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and will decrease as the storm moves away from the coast of Africa.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Frank off the coast of Mexico at 6:15 am EDT 8/23/10. This image from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) shows that most of Frank's heavy rains were offshore this morning, though an associated tropical disturbance was bringing heavy rains in excess of 1.5 inches per hour (white colors) to the Gulf of Mexico coast between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Frank may deluge Mexico's Pacific coast
Over in the Eastern Pacific, an 11-day quiet period has ended with the formation of Tropical Storm Frank. Frank is expected to move parallel to the Mexican coast over the next two days, and will bring isolated regions of heavy rain to coastal Mexico. NHC is warning that these rains could accumulate to ten inches in some areas, but there is a good chance that these dangerous flooding rains will remain just offshore. The latest set of computer models have come into better agreement keeping Frank offshore, and it currently appears the the greatest danger to Mexico will come on Tuesday, when the storm is expected to become a hurricane and will be capable of dumping heavy rain on the Acapulco region.

Palestine records its hottest temperature in history
The State of Palestine, the portion of the territories occupied by Israel that declared independence in 1988, recorded its hottest temperature since record keeping began on August 7, 2010, when the temperature hit 51.4°C (124.5°F) at Kibbutz Almog (also called Qalya or Kalya) in the Jordan Valley. The previous record for Palestine was set on June 22, 1942, at the same location.

Palestine was the 4th nation to set an all-time hottest temperature in history record this month, and the 18th to set such a record this year. There has also been one nation (Guinea) that set an all-time coldest temperature in history record this year. Note that many countries, including the U.S., do not recognize Palestine as a nation, though 110 countries do recognize it. Here's the updated list of nations or semi-independent islands or territories that have set all-time heat or cold records this year:

National heat records set in 2010
Palestine, the portion of the territories occupied by Israel that declared independence in 1988, recorded its hottest temperature since record keeping began on August 7, 2010, when the temperature hit 51.4°C (124.5°F) at Kibbutz Almog (also called Qalya or Kalya) in the Jordan Valley. The previous record for Palestine was set on June 22, 1942, at the same location.

Belarus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 6, 2010, when the mercury hit 38.7°C (101.7°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk on August 1, 2010. Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

National cold records set in 2010
One nation has set a record for its coldest temperature in history in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region.

Commentary
The period January - July was the warmest such 7-month period in the planet's history, and temperatures over Earth's land regions were at record highs in May, June, and July, according to the National Climatic Data Center. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history. In fact, it may be more appropriate to say that global warming adds more spots on the dice--it used to be possible to roll no higher than double sixes, and now it is possible to roll a thirteen.

The year 2010 now has the most national extreme heat records for a single year--eighteen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, seventy-five counties set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest national temperature records (good for 2nd place behind 2010 for most extreme heat records) is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Pakistan's monsoon set to enter a heavy phase; Indus River flood crest peaking near the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains has arrived at the coast, and flood heights have risen to all-time record levels today at the Indus river gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri. The new flooding has forced new evacuations of hundreds of thousands of people in southern Pakistan over the past two days. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. The monsoon has been in a weak to moderate phase over the past three days, but is expected to enter a heavy phase once again Tuesday through Thursday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Image of the Pakistan flood catastrophe of 2010, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3501. WxLogic
Steering:

Given her current strength which I believe is currently a bit lower (a couple MB) is being steered by this:



Also look closely at the cloud patterns... in this shortwave image you can see that is very close to the SW edge of the DLM high to its NW:



If she's not strong enough to take the role of the now weaker ULL and keep that weakness open to her north then she'll have a hard time getting that FULL northerly component to realize.
3503. pottery
Good Morning all.
Coming down hard here this morning. An inch so far...

Danielle is forcing her way into some dry stuff and looks to be winning that battle.

If it was not for the dry stuff, she would be a Mega by now....

Th person who invented Coffee is a Genius.......
3505. Engine2
smuldy I believe at 8 they issue a discussion which will relate to motion but not a full advisory update. I could be wrong
In the last few frames, she is starting to make that NW turn.

3509. smuldy
Quoting Engine2:
smuldy I believe at 8 they issue a discussion which will relate to motion but not a full advisory update. I could be wrong
no you aren't wrong they will make mention of it but they are unlikely to alter any advisory unless it is abundantly clear that it is necessary which in only 50 minutes time seems less than likely, they should still plot it at w of nw
3510. Engine2
Quoting RichlandStrangler:
In the last few frames, she is starting to make that NW turn.



Yea from this I can see the WNW motion
3511. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


Juan Valdez.

Never knew that...
Hats off, to her!
3512. IKE
Morning bloggers. I went back to the first advisory on Danielle, when she was a TD and looked at the NHC track. She appears to be going right where they said she would be going at this time....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT

96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT


They're a little off on intensity, but the track looks about right.

Looks to me like she's a turning now...Link
3513. WxLogic
3502 Destin...

Correct... last night it was more evident and thus the more Westerly track which was not expected and still follows this AM (at least for the time being). Typically in order to have a turn you have to lower you forward speed, but as you can see Danielle is moving pretty fast to the W @ 20MPH for the time being... but like anything in WX things could change depending on her strength.
Quoting RichlandStrangler:
In the last few frames, she is starting to make that NW turn.



Great loop - and it confirms what that its not simply throwing convection to north and is infact making a significant turn.......
3515. pottery
Greetings, Ike.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like she has some dry air to plow through
I think an eye is forming again on IR

3518. pottery
Quoting barotropic:


Great loop - and it confirms what that its not simply throwing convection to north and is infact making a significant turn.......

Not sure about that....
Quoting pottery:

Not sure about that....


See post 3506........follow circulation.
3520. pottery
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Looks like she has some dry air to plow through

That dry air has been retarding her, all along.
3521. smuldy
Quoting barotropic:


Great loop - and it confirms what that its not simply throwing convection to north and is infact making a significant turn.......
she has been moving at 280, so no it does not confirm the turn which is not forecasted to happen for another 9+ hours yet, if it continues out over a 2 hour period, then sure it turned early, but it needs to stay consistent on a gain of more than 1n to 2.5w to make that the case
3522. pottery
Quoting barotropic:


See post 3506........follow circulation.

Saw that.
Would need some more frames to confirm, IMO.
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


agreed
no 8am on Danielle...
Looking at that heavy band Danielle has to its west I dont see any north movement coming. If it would of been to its N or NW then I would say we will have a turn soon. Just my opinion
Quoting hunkerdown:
no 8am on Danielle...


Oh ok. Thanks. I am clearly a rookie!
3526. pottery
Not a breath of breeze here. Just constant, vertical rainfall......
I forecast a wet one today, LOL.
3527. docrod
Quoting IKE:
Morning bloggers. I went back to the first advisory on Danielle, when she was a TD and looked at the NHC track. She appears to be going right where they said she would be going at this time....

They're a little off on intensity, but the track looks about right.

Looks to me like she's a turning now...Link


Been watching that too. The cross hairs have been 25N and 55W for days.
I will say this, which is not a scientific statement but more "old school", if you look the way she is "pointing", she may be starting her turn (not unusual for canes to tend to "point" their direction of movement).
Still wobbling generally WNW.

I doubt we see some dramatic right turn. Thats a lot of energy and momentum.

She should gradually start gaining more latitude throughout the day.
Looking at the floater loop and (also see post 3506 cool loop) storm began a NW near NW heading (turn) at 8:15UTC over 2 hours ago and it continues.....
3532. IKE
I agree that dry-air is getting to her. I think the NHC mentioned in an earlier discussion that might be a problem....
Quoting docrod:


Been watching that too. The cross hairs have been 25N and 55W for days.


I remember a few days ago I looked at the ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NOGAPS...they all 4 had it near 20N and 50W. Looks like they'll be close and now models have it going to near 25N and 55W, like you said.
Quoting pottery:
Not a breath of breeze here. Just constant, vertical rainfall......
I forecast a wet one today, LOL.


Almost the same since the wind died down...

and being significantly colder.
has anyone ever heard of a hurricane bieng completely destroyed by dry air?
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning Senior Chief Caster!
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!



good AM my love can you fixs me some eggs and beer this AM
Morning Storm
3541. smuldy
Quoting Tazmanian:



good AM my love can you fixs me some eggs and beer this AM
kegs and eggs....a fine tradition lol...welcome storm and taz
3543. Engine2
Good morning storm, any initial thoughts on Danielle? I know you probably haven't had time yet to take a thorough look.
BNT20 KNHC 241137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


up too 90%
3545. RJT185
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Morning!
Quoting Tazmanian:



good AM my love can you fixs me some eggs and beer this AM


Lmao. Haven't heard of that combo yet. Sounds interesting, might try it someday
3547. Engine2
Quoting mcluvincane:


Lmao. Haven't heard of that combo yet. Sounds interesting, might try it someday

Commonly known as Kegs and eggs
looks like we could have a new TD by 11am
looks like we will have 2 systems at 11 AM
3551. P451
Quoting pottery:

That dry air has been retarding her, all along.


Good Morning.

She's certainly having some trouble with dry air this morning.

Late last night you could see her western side eroding some.

I didn't expect it to slow her down as much as it has this morning but she's been a bit tough to pin down ever since her inception.

3553. RJY
Hottest in the planets history????

How do you know that when we've only been keeping temperature records a little over 200 years and the planet is 4.5 billion years old?
3554. IKE
Yeah...she's turning a little now...moving more NW-erly...

Looks like Earl is gonna play follow the leader.
Quoting CycloneUK:
has anyone ever heard of a hurricane bieng completely destroyed by dry air?


Hurricane Lili weakened rapidly from 145 mph to 90 mph in 12 hours as it entrained dry air that collapsed the inner eyewall as it approached the LA coast:

Scientists unlock Hurricane Lili's sudden death

All of these different components were fed into an NCAR computer model called MM5 that re-creates atmospheric and oceanic conditions in four dimensions (height, width, area and time). The data was combined using a "Four-Dimensional Variational Analysis" (4DVAR) system. The MM5 computer model and 4DVAR system, developed by NCAR scientists, essentially re-created the conditions when Hurricane Lili weakened, so scientists could better understand the cause of the drop in strength. The model showed that low-level drier air, not observed in the conventional data, moved into the west side of Lili, at 00 Universal Time on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2002, (Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 8:00 p.m. ET), partially explaining the storm's weakening.

That dry air created an "open eyewall" which is basically a break up in the powerful thunderstorms that circle the open air center (eye) of the hurricane. Once the eyewall starts to break down, the storm weakens quickly.

Link

A thorough thesis on the rapid weakening of Lili:

Link (pdf)
3556. P451
12 Hour WV Imagery. Dry air intruding on the system. You can see the eye pop out about halfway through the loop. Now you can see what may be a turn to the NW at the end of the loop.

3557. teammc
Good Moring, StormW
Quoting IKE:
Yeah...she's turning a little now...moving more NW-erly...

Looks like Earl is gonna play follow the leader.

according to nhc IT WONT
Link
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

according to nhc IT WONT
Link


Wont what???
06L/H/D/C1
MARK
16.23N/45.21W

looks like FL needs too watch this one

Quoting barotropic:


Wont what???


wont follow the leader out to sea, it shows Pre-Earl going almost due west in three days
3564. P451
Quoting RJY:
Hottest in the planets history????

How do you know that when we've only been keeping temperature records a little over 200 years and the planet is 4.5 billion years old?


They need to tone the language down on this whole AGW thing.

Instead of the planet's history why not use "in the past 100 years of record keeping" or in the "modern human era".

Even those are suspect as we know data collection has been spotty at best until the 1970s and since then method of collections have varied greatly.

Doesn't take any of us to think of how we've all used mercury, spring activated, and now electronic devices to measure temperature - and recall how each of the three reflect a different result!

But, well, what can you do but decide for yourself what to believe and how much faith to put into it.

Last I checked the ocean is still exactly where it was 35 years ago here on the Jersey shore and I have seen both cold and hot winters and summers throughout my 37 years. Nothing different about this summer than one I had in the 80s. Nothing different about this winter than one I had in the 70s.

So I don't get the hysteria over a single or handful of seasons being warm or cold and then relating them to a trend and posting it as fact.

The ones who do that seem to be on a mission to prove their theories as fact no matter what it takes.

*shrug*


---->back to Danielle and probably soon to be Earl!

3565. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like FL needs too watch this one



Someone was mentioning tandem systems last night and explored how models predicted the second system would follow the first out to sea - but the second one actually slid further south and west almost like it was slingshot that way by the prior system - and it made landfall.

I forget the actual content of the conversation but remember the technical points about it.

System two doesn't always follow system one out to sea. Sometimes System 1 allows System 2 to slide under the steering and further south and west.

Quoting RJY:
Hottest in the planets history????

How do you know that when we've only been keeping temperature records a little over 200 years and the planet is 4.5 billion years old?


As much as I dont want to get into the GW debate and will not... I must absolutely agree with you on this comment!
3567. help4u
Good morning,everyone like fish for breakfast.We have alot coming up next 2 or 3 weeks.
3568. IKE
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

according to nhc IT WONT
Link


Models I have seen(ECMWF, GFS and CMC), take it generally toward 20N and about 50W-55W and turn it.
3569. P451
Quoting blsealevel:




Link


Looks like something is trying to spin up there.
90% WOW
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


As much as I dont want to get into the GW debate and will not... I must absolutely agree with you on this comment!


acctually scientists can use ice core samples to determine past global climates and changes in them from thousands of years into the past
3572. markot
yes earl wont follow the leader....look at the models like so many of you do......a threat to fl...
Quoting IKE:


Models I have seen(ECMWF, GFS and CMC), take it generally toward 20N and about 50W-55W and turn it.


Yeah I guess it could move that way after the three day period. We will see. I dont think it is going to ramp up as fast as Danielle did, though, which should lead to a more westward track.
3574. smuldy
Quoting P451:


Someone was mentioning tandem systems last night and explored how models predicted the second system would follow the first out to sea - but the second one actually slid further south and west almost like it was slingshot that way by the prior system - and it made landfall.

I forget the actual content of the conversation but remember the technical points about it.

System two doesn't always follow system one out to sea. Sometimes System 1 allows System 2 to slide under the steering and further south and west.

because depending on the scenario and synoptic setup it is possible (key word) for system 1 to reinforce a ridge that it manages to escape through; but given the complexity of this setup we have a LONG way to go before we begin speculating about where potential Earl goes; he hockey stickx2, there is still an amount of uncertainty as to Danielle, she needs to exit before we will know what kind of setup we have for potential Earl to work with
90% BIG WOW
Quoting IKE:


Models I have seen(ECMWF, GFS and CMC), take it generally toward 20N and about 50W-55W and turn it.


add to to that the HWRf which take it to 20 just beyond 72 hrs and turn it at 48, also as much weaker storm. So may be lookin good here also.
Quoting RJY:
Hottest in the planets history????

How do you know that when we've only been keeping temperature records a little over 200 years and the planet is 4.5 billion years old?


Too much tropical weather going on, so I'll touch this very briefly then move on: it's understood by most intelligent people that when referring to "in history", folks are talking about "in recorded history". Having said that, it is hotter now globally than it has been for the past many hundreds of years, and it's getting hotter. The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest.
Quoting P451:


Looks like something is trying to spin up there.


Yea been watching this for a couple of days
NWS had something for the gulf in one of their reports weak Low supposed to go West i dont think its going to be much but this time of year you never know they tend to be sneaky little things sometimes.
3581. P451
Quoting mrpuertorico:


acctually scientists can use ice core samples to determine past global climates and changes in them from thousands of years into the past


They however do not know if a thin ring is the result of a warm winter or simply a dry one - and consequently a thick ring the result of a cold winter or simply a wet one.

So, it really is quite far from an exact science, and should not be used to make assumptions about global temperatures.



3582. Vero1
3583. smuldy
Quoting barotropic:


add to to that the HWRf which take it to 20 just beyond 72 hrs and turn it at 48, also as much weaker storm. So may be lookin good here also.
dude; its an as yet unformed storm in a very complex synoptic pattern that is being influenced by another storm ahead of it; I'm not saying it WONT curve but I AM SAYING 10 days out before it even has a coc and before Danielle even does her thing its a TAD early to be suggesting the all clear sign
3584. IKE
3585. markot
likely i heard on twc a strong high ridge will build back in, trofs dont stay forever....
Quoting P451:


They however do not know if a thin ring is the result of a warm winter or simply a dry one - and consequently a thick ring the result of a cold winter or simply a wet one.

So, it really is quite far from an exact science, and should not be used to make assumptions about global temperatures.





Denial is so unbecoming; the planet's warming rapidly, and we're in large part to blame.
I noticed that the 06z GFS has both Danielle and yet to form Earl eventually running straight into the UK!

We've had enough wind and rain here already this summer...

3588. help4u
Negative NAO must mean lots of fish storms since it went negative everything has been forcast out to sea.
Quoting squish66:
I noticed that the 06z GFS has both Danielle and yet to form Earl eventually running straight into the UK!

We've had enough wind and rain here already this summer...



Can't wait for that, we'll get it first here in Northern Ireland. How inconsiderate of those tropical systems....
Quoting smuldy:
dude; its an as yet unformed storm in a very complex synoptic pattern that is being influenced by another storm ahead of it; I'm not saying it WONT curve but I AM SAYING 10 days out before it even has a coc and before Danielle even does her thing its a TAD early to be suggesting the all clear sign


10 days out?? Thats 240 hrs. Who said anything about 10 days out. I was refering to the new 6Z run of the HWRF which shows that system beging a turn at already near 20 north and 48 west......just beyond 72 hours. Likewise I was merely adding to a comment posted by Ike. sorry to have insulted you though.
3592. markot
get real earl isnt going to uk ireland, danielle might.....
do we have a TD yet from 96L?
Quoting tropicfreak:
do we have a TD yet from 96L?


we will likely have one at 11 AM

3595. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:
do we have a TD yet from 96L?


Upgrade coming soon...within hours, if not minutes.

Quoting IKE:
Yeah...she's turning a little now...moving more NW-erly...

Looks like Earl is gonna play follow the leader.


I think its way too early yet to say what 96 will do. However I am convinced now that Danielle brushes the east side of Bermuda. Danielle moved a little more west last night and so far her track has been a little more south and west than the forecasted trac? It still recurves back out though.

However on 96, to say that its going to "follow the leader" with 220+ hrs left and heading into September is a bit ill conceived. Ike, how many September's have you seen where there was trofiness or several weaknesses in a H ridge? Its just not typical for September? What L or frontal trof is bringing 96 back out? Can you show some proof my friend?
Poll:

What will the intensity change be for Danielle
1)Decrease in wind speed
2)Same wind speed
3)Increase in wind speed
Quoting Tazmanian 11:56 AM GMT on August 24, 2010
looks like FL needs too watch this one


At this point, none of the "dynamic models" (GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET) develop 96L.
Look for any ATCF update within the hour if it's coming.
3601. tkeith
Pinhole Eye? *tkeith ducks*..

NHC has Danielle increasing in strength with drier air ahead so I will go by the NHC since that answer seems to be a "go to" answer ;-)
Quoting markot:
get real earl isnt going to uk ireland, danielle might.....


No :( a Dont Want more Flooding
3604. smuldy
It's not even formed yet, ok?
Danielle is not looking very happy if the center doesn't blow up with convection I think it's possible some sort of half-hearted ERC could occur I think next advisory they'll stay at 100 just because they can't really tell what's happeneing
3607. help4u
why is everything out to sea then?Did not happen until it went negative,forcast 3 fish in a row?
3608. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


And how old is earth?
Almost as old as Grothar...
3610. leo305
the system clearly has and still is sucking in a lot of dry air.. and it's having issues fighting it off, the core is being chocked dry..

3611. smuldy
Quoting barotropic:


10 days out?? Thats 240 hrs. Who said anything about 10 days out. I was refering to the new 6Z run of the HWRF which shows that system beging a turn at already near 20 north and 48 west......just beyond 72 hours. Likewise I was merely adding to a comment posted by Ike. sorry to have insulted you though.
no sorry i didnt mean that and i wasnt insulted my only point was not just you but for any of us to begin saying where an undeveloped system with a hurricane in the basin in front of it may recurve or not recurve or go or not go its just way too early; sorry just quoted you cause you were the most recent reply on the topic
The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to


It's a theory Nea..Thats the only fact. Your left-wing, holier-than-thou, I'm smarter than all of you "deniers", routine gets old.
After all our guessing,cussing and discussing ,
you gotta give it to NHC..Danielle is almost right on her fcst points...
Quoting markot:
get real earl isnt going to uk ireland, danielle might.....


I'm not suggesting that they'll get here as any thing more than a light breeze and some rain, but we do get that fairly often from former tropical systems.
Quoting StormW:


+1

I'm still LMAO at the "tightly clustered model consensus"


Why is that storm?
Morning all,

Danielle still moving west. I only say one thing is down on latitude than any model forecast 1 or 2 days ago. i dont see movement north yet.
its amazing how much 96L organized, 20% yesterday morning, 40% 2pm, 60% at 8pm and i wake up to 90% almost certain that its a TD.
3618. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


+1

I'm still LMAO at the "tightly clustered model consensus"
lol me too
3619. A4Guy
Quoting IKE:


Upgrade coming soon...within hours, if not minutes.



Hey Ike...do you have a good link to the far Eastern Atl? The one from the NHC page only updates every 6 hours - anything more "real time" than that?
we have a potential 2 systems out there... no need to talk about global warming
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting help4u:
why is everything out to sea then?Did not happen until it went negative,forcast 3 fish in a row?
ULL's and trof's
Happy Anniversary Andrew.......

18 years ago today you caused a little damage around my neck of the woods....
Quoting smuldy:
no sorry i didnt mean that and i wasnt insulted my only point was not just you but for any of us to begin saying where an undeveloped system with a hurricane in the basin in front of it may recurve or not recurve or go or not go its just way too early; sorry just quoted you cause you were the most recent reply on the topic



There's a new model on the fsu site. Ikemet operational. Check it out it sends every storm out 2 sea
3626. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I think its way too early yet to say what 96 will do. However I am convinced now that Danielle brushes the east side of Bermuda. Danielle moved a little more west last night and so far her track has been a little more south and west than the forecasted trac? It still recurves back out though.

However on 96, to say that its going to "follow the leader" with 220+ hrs left and heading into September is a bit ill conceived. Ike, how many September's have you seen where there was trofiness or several weaknesses in a H ridge? Its just not typical for September? What L or frontal trof is bringing 96 back out? Can you show some proof my friend?


That's what the models are showing now. They could change. Right now...it's showing a turn between 50-55W. That's what the ECMWF, GFS and CMC are showing.

We should all act like adults on here and stop hammering people for what several models show and we mention it. We all know models can change. If someone on here isn't smart enough to realize that then maybe they don't belong on here.
3627. smuldy
Quoting A4Guy:


Hey Ike...do you have a good link to the far Eastern Atl? The one from the NHC page only updates every 6 hours - anything more "real time" than that?
i'm not ike, but try here:
East Atlantic Imagery
What is the possibility of Danielle slowing enough that she misses both throughs off the east cost, since the second one seems to be deminishing and not reaching that far south? What is the importance of the timing of these two troughs, as related to her track? Is her track a fore gone conclusion at this point?
Morning StormW,

Do you think Danielle can reach NY or massachussette coast?

thanks
Quoting StormW:


1

I'm still LMAO at the "tightly clustered model consensus"
I especiallylike the one that loops "earl" back east..tightly clustered?
Quoting Claudette1234:
Morning all,

Danielle still moving west. I only say one thing is down on latitude than any model forecast 1 or 2 days ago. i dont see movement north yet.


I agree, dry air is being entrained into the system which will slow any strengthening.The track will continue to shift west.
3633. smuldy
Quoting mcluvincane:



There's a new model on the fsu site. Ikemet operational. Check it out it sends every storm out 2 sea
rofl lol
Quoting Neapolitan:


Denial is so unbecoming; the planet's warming rapidly, and we're in large part to blame.



You're smugness is what's really unbecoming.
3635. o22sail
Quoting mrpuertorico:


acctually scientists believe they can use ice core samples to determine past global climates and changes in them from thousands of years into the past


There, I fixed that for us.
the great debate, until I see meteorologists, explain to me why rivers have natural levees, which are extremely far out and higher than most realize, that have not been over topped by the most recent flooding I won't believe we are seeing record rain falls. I am a civil engineer, I know very little on meteorology (I did take 1 class in college but that was not much). I have taken history and geology. When you start to look at the rivers, all the cities along rivers are built within the natural levee systems. Natural levees are created by flood events over many years (1000's and 1000's). Then you have the general environment, what happened to England growing grapes? Did people realize before the 1400's England produced lots of grape but since the "little" ice age they have not been able to sustain grapes because it has been too cool. How warm was it then?
With all that said, the earth is warming up and has been since the early 1800's because the sun changed from a solar minimum to try to achieve a solar maximum which take many years. Now I think man has made many mistakes in polluting the earth and we need to clean up, but lets get all facts out before we make this 100% man's fault.
Quoting Claudette1234:
Morning all,

Danielle still moving west. I only say one thing is down on latitude than any model forecast 1 or 2 days ago. i dont see movement north yet.


its turning north some....yesterday from noon through most of the evening danielle gained latitude...
3639. FLdewey
Quoting smuldy:
It's not even formed yet, ok?

Dear GOD... I'm in the cone!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:


Too much tropical weather going on, so I'll touch this very briefly then move on: it's understood by most intelligent people that when referring to "in history", folks are talking about "in recorded history". Having said that, it is hotter now globally than it has been for the past many hundreds of years, and it's getting hotter. The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest.


Its the last little part that isn't fact. Fact is, we don't really know yet if the pattern we are currently seeing now isnt just part of the overall grand scheme of things. Now, be that said IMO that we are influencing atmosphere, to what degree only time will tell. I do think that we are at a great crossroad in human history in that we need to take a look at the way we exhaust energy.
Quoting smuldy:
It's not even formed yet, ok?


North Carolina is in the center of your cone!
3642. Ossqss
Dr. Phil must be wrong if the Neo person is right. How much has man's impact on temp been Neo? Assuming the 280ppm CO2 baseline from the 1800's is correct and we are at 392 today? The numbers in this don't support any acceleration in Temp rise since 1860. In fact the paragraph under the graphic show slowing. Please enlighten us as to how Phil Jones must be wrong please.

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones
3643. IKE
Quoting smuldy:
rofl lol


I'm so glad he's on my ignore list of 103.
Quoting racer925:
the great debate, until I see meteorologists, explain to me why rivers have natural levees, which are extremely far out and higher than most realize, that have not been over topped by the most recent flooding I won't believe we are seeing record rain falls. I am a civil engineer, I know very little on meteorology (I did take 1 class in college but that was not much). I have taken history and geology. When you start to look at the rivers, all the cities along rivers are built within the natural levee systems. Natural levees are created by flood events over many years (1000's and 1000's). Then you have the general environment, what happened to England growing grapes? Did people realize before the 1400's England produced lots of grape but since the "little" ice age they have not been able to sustain grapes because it has been too cool. How warm was it then?
With all that said, the earth is warming up and has been since the early 1800's because the sun changed from a solar minimum to try to achieve a solar maximum which take many years. Now I think man has made many mistakes in polluting the earth and we need to clean up, but lets get all facts out before we make this 100% man's fault.


Whilst I completely agree with you that global warming is much more to do with solar activity than man's activity, a solar cycle (from one solar maximum to another) only lasts 11 years.
Quoting StormW:


Cause they ain't been right yet...flippin hurricane is still at 280, and models have been projecting 295-300 since this thing came off Africa. GFS...LMAO, hard turn north at 40W.


Stright to the point (Nice)
Quoting IKE:


That's what the models are showing now. They could change. Right now...it's showing a turn between 50-55W. That's what the ECMWF, GFS and CMC are showing.

We should all act like adults on here and stop hammering people for what several models show and we mention it. We all know models can change. If someone on here isn't smart enough to realize that then maybe they don't belong on here.


Whoa Ike...no harm intended...if somehow by making that observation that you were insulted or offended then I do apologize. However, I disconnected my big red button so if you prefer I not comment anything to you, then thats fine. Please feel free though to communicate to me because I can handle it respectfully.

I was just asking for your proof on 96? You can choose to not answer if thats better for you. Maybe we could learn from each other?
Yeah, and all those pesky cows and their methane too....
3650. smuldy
Ok after unfairly singling out the last person to post on potential Earl speculation when I needed to reply I am not going to quote anyone for this, and I know that GW was part of JM's blog and all, and yes it is a topic worth discussing but a hurricane in the basin a tricky synoptic setup and another on the verge of forming can we focus on the tropics at least today folks? This is not meant for anyone debating GW here that has been adding to the discussion all night/morning about the tropics, but rather aimed more t the ever annoying hit and run single post folks flooding the board now. If the phrasing of what certain geographic/national entities in the dry hot desert comes back up I swear I will start putting on explosive vests. Please can we try and focus on the tropics at least until we can confirm Danielle is making a move north now or not?
Quoting StormW:
If we do take care of the CO2 problem, what do we do about water vapor?


Well, reducing CO2 reduces water vapour.
Good morning! And a very wet morning it is. I think it's going to be a very wet day, by the looks of it.

Link
Now I think man has made many mistakes in polluting the earth and we need to clean up, but lets get all facts out before we make this 100% man's fault.



+100
3655. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Whoa Ike...no harm intended...if somehow by making that observation that you were insulted or offended then I do apologize. However, I disconnected my big red button so if you prefer I not comment anything to you, then thats fine. Please feel free though to communicate to me because I can handle it respectfully.

I was just asking for your proof on 96? You can choose to not answer if thats better for you. Maybe we could learn from each other?


Nothing personal. Just an observation from an amateur.

I wasn't being disrespectful. Just stating what the models show...Earl playing follow the leader.
3656. smuldy
Quoting FLdewey:

Dear GOD... I'm in the cone!!!
lol better plan that evac to beijing
Quoting StormW:


Cause they ain't been right yet...flippin hurricane is still at 280, and models have been projecting 295-300 since this thing came off Africa. GFS...LMAO, hard turn north at 40W.


Storm at the time that was OVER 200 hours out. Does anyone on here really think that a forcast that far out was meant to be specific or exacting. I doubt it. The jist of it is the models were reflecting that this storm was going to miss the islands, and likely recurve mid atlantic thereby avoiding the conus. The storm is at 44 and clearly making a turn (as compared to earlier and is on the forecast track. I think the models have done very well on this storm for a mid ocean storm.
Looks like she ingested some dry air last night? I could see this Hurricane constantly going through eye wall replacement cycles more than a typical Hurricane. This could knock down the potential strength of the storm. There is much dry air to her north and west.
Link
NOAA
3659. Relix
290 bearing right now on Danielle.

(Or that could be convection making me go crazy)
(Indeed! Shortwave confirms at 290-295 movement)
3660. Ossqss




Water vapor, cloud thing ?
My thought last night was that if it was still at around 16n lat and moving near due west in the morning, which it is, then I'd start to wonder. I know the gfs and other models have it turn more n westerly at about 48-50 w, (really sooner) so hopefully at at least by 50 it will make the right hand turn. If not, then it would seem the weakness is not that weak. And the future steering forecast might prevail.
Quoting Relix:
290 bearing right now on Danielle.

(Or that could be convection making me go crazy)
NHC still showing 280?
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, reducing CO2 reduces water vapour.

Hahaha almost fell on the floor with this one. Water vapor is 74% of our greenhouse gases. CO2 is what about 10%-15% at best. Reducing CO2 will not help reduce water vapor since water vapor is natural and needed.
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
Happy Anniversary Andrew.......

18 years ago today you caused a little damage around my neck of the woods....


OMG. 18 years!! thanks for the reminder!
3667. P451
Quoting smuldy:
It's not even formed yet, ok?


I like this.

latest vis shows the COC on Danielle pushing out into that gap between the convection ball and the line in front... I think we may see an exposed center here shortly
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I just pulled my self back up.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I just pulled my self back up.


Ok storm, get to ur analysis! Lol
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I just pulled my self back up.

Shoot Methane is a worse greenhouse gas than CO2. Maybe if we reduce obesity we will not release so much methane into the atmosphere on a daily basis and can reduce so called global warming.
3671. DDR
Morning
Trinidad weather---
Rain and storms expect all day here.Mr itcz behaving bad!
12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 455W, 75, 983, HU


weakening
3673. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


So? The models, if you look, HAVE NOT shown a westward motion, but almost NW...through the whole time frame...period, and kept showing the turn...EVERYDAY! Only off by over 240nm. No biggie.
at least 240nm; i do not doubt the sig recurve nw is coming, but i'm not convinced that this is it already when we are talking a jog of 15.8n/44.6w-16n/45w
3674. Ossqss
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Hahaha almost fell on the floor with this one. Water vapor is 74% of our greenhouse gases. CO2 is what about 10%-15% at best. Reducing CO2 will not help reduce water vapor since water vapor is natural and needed.


0.039% of the atmosphere = CO2
Quoting IKE:


Nothing personal. Just an observation from an amateur.

I wasn't being disrespectful. Just stating what the models show...Earl playing follow the leader.


Hey no problem. I subscribe to my grandfather's wisom that 99% of things are not worth arguing about or worth ruining a friendship so Im quick to let this go and let it roll off the back if thats ok with you?

What we can agree on is that Danielle is on a 280 heading right now and hopefully she doesnt cause any damage or place lives in danger.

As for 96? I'll wait and see how things materialize before putting myself out there on a trac. Too many get upset or play super forecaster. With 96 comming out a little further south than Danielle and sterring currents come more into play. Trof's this time of year are "generally" more northward.

But in all fairness Ike, I meant no disrespect to you my friend.
Quoting StormW:


So? The models, if you look, HAVE NOT shown a westward motion, but almost NW...through the whole time frame...period, and kept showing the turn...EVERYDAY! Only off by over 240nm. No biggie.


Thats right.......240 NM is no biggie mid ocean, in reference to recurvature. Of it is important to those in Bermuda.
3677. Bayside
Morning all, anything going on in the tropical Atlantic?
Danielle looking a little ragged this morning. Might make a few ship crews a little happier.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 455W, 75, 983, HU


weakening


which is bad for bermuda right?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 455W, 75, 983, HU


weakening


Thought it might.
3681. P451
6Z Danielle



6Z 96L


3682. Relix
It's hard to get a good grasp on the movement at the moment but it's definitely going NW in the last frames. Confirmation please? =P
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
latest vis shows the COC on Danielle pushing out into that gap between the convection ball and the line in front... I think we may see an exposed center here shortly


She's going to come down on the next advisory IMO.
3684. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Hey no problem. I subscribe to my grandfather's wisom that 99% of things are not worth arguing about or worth ruining a friendship so Im quick to let this go and let it roll off the back if thats ok with you?

What we can agree on is that Danielle is on a 280 heading right now and hopefully she doesnt cause any damage or place lives in danger.

As for 96? I'll wait and see how things materialize before putting myself out there on a trac. Too many get upset or play super forecaster. With 96 comming out a little further south than Danielle and sterring currents come more into play. Trof's this time of year are "generally" more northward.

But in all fairness Ike, I meant no disrespect to you my friend.


It's all good. If it was 300 miles south of Mobile it would be a different situation.


center is trying to get exposed
3686. smuldy
Quoting barotropic:


Thats right.......240 NM is no biggie mid ocean, in reference to recurvature. Of it is important to those in Bermuda.
but it is a big deal for future reliance on models under very strange synoptic setups; 240nm closer to land would be greater than the difference between miami and orlando
3687. Relix
Weakening is not good. Less trough effect on it. It's on track of the current forecast points though!
Quoting Bayside:
Morning all, anything going on in the tropical Atlantic?




No. Why do you ask?
BAD VOICE
Another Fish season...LOL 96L (fish) and Danielle (same).
Quoting Relix:
It's hard to get a good grasp on the movement at the moment but it's definitely going NW in the last frames. Confirmation please? =P


it jumped NW, but now has resumed its west course
Quoting StormW:


So? The models, if you look, HAVE NOT shown a westward motion, but almost NW...through the whole time frame...period, and kept showing the turn...EVERYDAY!, since she came off Africa. Only off by over 240nm. No biggie.
Storm, I'm sticken with your analays. You have always proven to be wise and prudent in your forecasting for as long as I can remember. Thanks and look foreward to your update
I AM RIGHT THERE KEEP MOVING 96L PATH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH EVERY 6 HOURS NOW.
i find this rather interesting....


Link

92kts 972,6 hpa impressive CAT2 hurricane.

106mph near to MAJOR Hurricane.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Shoot Methane is a worse greenhouse gas than CO2. Maybe if we reduce obesity we will not release so much methane into the atmosphere on a daily basis and can reduce so called global warming.


Reducing CO2 will reduce the water vapor feedback in the troposphere, but the stratosphere effects are very complex. Methane also breaks up into CO2 and H2O, and the combustion of methane produces soot, which can melt ice caps. Animal farts constitute a large proportion of the methane emitted into the atmosphere by humans, so reducing meat consumption would really help.

06z GFS develops up to the "J" storm by the end of its 16-day run. 96L has a 90% chance of developing on NHC TWO.

Good morning, y'all.
3700. Bayside
3688. PensacolaDoug - No. Why do you ask?

Oh, sorry must be on the wrong site.
INVEST 96L ITS NOT GOING OUT TO SEA ANYTIME SOON.
Quoting P451:
6Z Danielle



6Z 96L




Yikes. One model actually landfalls Danielle on Long Island, and so does one historical model!
3703. smuldy
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
INVEST 96L ITS NOT GOING OUT TO SEA ANYTIME SOON.
whoa its the twilight zone you became the voice of reason here lol

+100
3704. SQUAWK
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Reducing CO2 will reduce the water vapor feedback in the troposphere, but the stratosphere effects are very complex. Methane also breaks up into CO2 and H2O, and the combustion of methane produces soot, which can melt ice caps. Animal farts constitute a large proportion of the methane emitted into the atmosphere by humans, so reducing meat consumption would really help.

06z GFS develops up to the "J" storm by the end of its 16-day run. 96L has a 90% chance of developing on NHC TWO.

Good morning, y'all.

Maybe we need to start feeding those cattle a little Beano.
Quoting Ossqss:


0.039% of the atmosphere = CO2

Just to be a pain in the ....

It only takes a few parts per million to make otherwise breathable air highly lethal.
Quoting Bayside:
3688. PensacolaDoug - No. Why do you ask?

Oh, sorry must be on the wrong site.



I was just funnin ya....:)
Quoting StormW:


Well, at almost 300 statute miles...I would say that is not very accurate...and I darn sure wouldn't want to trust it. And that's what I'm talking about...exactly...the threat is closer for Bermuda now. In short, the models blew it...period.


Exactely......seems like you said that may happen Storm? I really enjoy your updates...thanks for all the info
Quoting Enigma713:

Just to be a pain in the ....

It only takes a few parts per million to make otherwise breathable air highly lethal.


It takes 5%, actually. But methane is a strong greenhouse gas and only makes up 0.000175% of the atmosphere.
Do posts on here sometimes 'go missing'? I've twice tried to post a reply to something and it hasn't showed up.
Quoting SQUAWK:

Maybe we need to start feeding those cattle a little Beano.





Better make it alot!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yikes. One model actually landfalls Danielle on Long Island, and so does one historical model!


Really?? which one?

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


it jumped NW, but now has resumed its west course


Its right on its forecast points. Definitely beginning to "feel" the weakness that continues to develop. That weakness will become more pronounced over the next 48 hours. NHC forecast still looks pretty good to me. Bermuda still needs to keep an eye on it as the western fringes of Danielle could brush by late Sunday. Still no threat to the US and don't expect it to be.
Looks like 96l is dividing into two aoi's. One moving nw and some energy escaping to the west.
Link

Africa looks pretty busy...
Quoting SQUAWK:

Maybe we need to start feeding those cattle a little Beano.


If we stop eating beef, there will be more cows and more farting. I say eat more beef! Steaks all around! Stop the flatulence by going to the source and killing it and then eating it. I don't understand how someone could misunderstand the law of supply and demand.
If you wanna boycott something that pollutes and would be good for the economy too, boycott gasoline! The oil companies have had us in a choke hold for years and they charge whatever they want.
Ride a bike. You might need to shed a few pounds anyway after eating all those porterhouses.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Hahaha almost fell on the floor with this one. Water vapor is 74% of our greenhouse gases. CO2 is what about 10%-15% at best. Reducing CO2 will not help reduce water vapor since water vapor is natural and needed.


My answer to this doesn't appear to have appeared on the blog, so I'll try again.

Most of the warming which results from anthropogenic greenhouse gases does not arise directly from the reradiation of infrared by those molecules.

What happens is that the small initial warming from GHGs is amplified by the additional water vapour which results from this via evaporation from the oceans.

It's known as a 'positive feedback' effect and all model predictions of future warming by GHGs take this into account.
3719. IKE
Quoting yonzabam:
Do posts on here sometimes 'go missing'? I've twice tried to post a reply to something and it hasn't showed up.


I've had that problem too this morning.
3720. markot
how can anyone say potential Earl is going out to sea....plz....get real...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to


It's a theory Nea..Thats the only fact. Your left-wing, holier-than-thou, I'm smarter than all of you "deniers", routine gets old.


You can be rude and turn this into an ad hominem attack on me if you want, but it's not helping your side's vanishing argument. Yes, AGW is a theory, but it's a theory like evolution's a theory or gravity's a theory; not every last detail has been worked out to the nth degree...but it's all pretty conclusive.

Not sure where the "holier-than-thou" bit comes from; I suspect it's a bit of frustration on the part of the deniers as they see their ludicrous defense get taken apart but by bit by the simple science. And as for being smarter than all deniers, I've never claimed that at all. I wouldn't. I would, however, claim that I'm more honest, open-minded, and true to science than the vast majority of them are.

Here's my overall take: the vast majority of climatologists have looked at the overwhelming evidence and come to the inescapable conclusion that mankind's activities are heating the planet at a rapid rate. Meanwhile, the vast majority of those vested the most heavily in the current fossil fuel paradigm--Big Oil, Big Coal, shareholders in those industries, etc.--have looked at the overwhelming evidence and come to the inescapable conclusion that it's all a scam, all that evidence is a lie, and all those climatologists are fraudsters.

You know, it wasn't that hard at all to decide which side I'd join.
Quoting Enigma713:

Just to be a pain in the ....

It only takes a few parts per million to make otherwise breathable air highly lethal.


..or stinky
the centre of Daniella is beginning to get exposed on the west of the ball of convection. it appears that the system is moving north of west. the hurricane is getting very close where it is forecast to take that dramatic turn.at the moment thereis no indication of that happen soon. it also appears that Danielle might be weakening slightly. i will keep looking at the system to see whether it makes that crucial turn,for if it gets to 50W and still south of 17 N then it will be another scenario for the forecast track
"Commentary
The period January - July was the warmest such 7-month period in the planet's history,..."

Let's temper that a bit - maybe since humans have been recording temperatures, but I bet it was a wee bit warmer during the early days when the planet was coalescing and the surface was covered with molten rock
3725. Ossqss
Quoting Enigma713:

Just to be a pain in the ....

It only takes a few parts per million to make otherwise breathable air highly lethal.


OSHA's maximum safe level is 3% (30,000 ppm); lethal concentration (death in 30 minutes) is 10% (100,000 ppm)
Good morning.

I see Danielle has been upgraded to a category 2, but she definitely seen better days.
3727. FLdewey
Quoting Neapolitan:



You know, it wasn't that hard at all to decide which side I'd join.

What, it's a club? You have to pick sides? You know there is middle ground on the subject, but I know that doesn't fit in with your preaching style.

Oh guys why do you feed him?
3728. smuldy
Neap-ur too good at the tropics and they are too active to get sucked into this; you cannot convince a dog that thinks he is a wolf that he is not a wolf; on a less active day, it is worth the try, but today there is a lot cooking out there and there is no need to waste your energy on people who just aren't going to listen unless you are on am radio
Quoting stoormfury:
the centre of Daniella is beginning to get exposed on the west of the ball of convection. it appears that the system is moving north of west. the hurricane is getting very close where it is forecast to take that dramatic turn.at the moment thereis no indication of that happen soon. it also appears that Danielle might be weakening slightly. i will keep looking at the system to see whether it makes that crucial turn,for if it gets to 50W and still south of 17 N then it will be another scenario for the forecast track


I don't see a hurricane on the visible. This system is degenerating as quickly as it developed. Looks like dry air and now we are beginning to see signs of shear moving NW to SE??
3731. MahFL
Quoting Bayside:
Morning all, anything going on in the tropical Atlantic?


No....come back next week, oh and be carefull crossing the roads........
3733. IKE
On the full Atlantic view on Danielle...she's turning more to the NW. You can see she's aiming north of the islands.
3734. SLU
Danielle

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 45.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM


Pre-Earl

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 23.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 19.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 16.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




morning storm!
I was waiting for it and you sure didn't disappoint. But in the court of public opinion, your side isn't doing so well these days.

Have a nice day Nea. I've heard enough agw propoganda for one day.


Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.



Thank you StormW, been looking for that graph for a while.
Quoting FLdewey:

What, it's a club? You have to pick sides? You know there is middle ground on the subject, but I know that doesn't fit in with your preaching style.

Oh guys why do you feed him?


Wow. Angry much? ;-)
3741. BFG308
Jason, seriously, you're waffling. Yesterday someone quoted you saying "DANIELLE IS A FISH STORM, SO IS 96L" today its the exact opposite.

Look, if you're here to make forecasts, you can't possibly be expecting people to take you seriously. ALL CAPS< LIKE REALLY??? and people quoting your stuff is getting old. That being said, there is a reason 3 of your past handles and a couple future ones (if I guessed right, and there's a pattern, so probably) are on my ignore list.

Quoting barotropic:


Thats right.......240 NM is no biggie mid ocean, in reference to recurvature. Of it is important to those in Bermuda.
Can we all agree that models are useful in forming the "cone" and that 240-300 mile difference is not important at 120 hrs out?
3743. CJ5
To me, it looks like the steering maps have the high pushing further south than I expected. It does still show trough off the eastern seaboard but I wonder if the high pushing further south will keep Danielle more west longer than expected??
Good Morning All!

Looks like we will have two seperate tropical cyclones to follow by later today, and both not affecting people anytime soon...if at all :-)
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.

he's going to need more room on the positive side of the y-axis anomaly soon..:>
3748. leo305
Quoting CJ5:
To me, it looks like the steering maps have the high pushing further south than I expected. It does still show trough off the eastern seaboard but I wonder if the high pushing further south will keep Danielle more west longer than expected??


mhm I guess its expected that the weakness that is currently pulling it WNW/NW is going to become weaker, and move in tangent with the system and hence curving it out into sea, but the issue I see is the fact there's a very strong ridge of high pressure to the west, and it's still very strong.. that wont allow the storm to just move NNW/N/NNE like if nothing was there, especially if the system is weaker than expected.
3749. breald
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.


In 2006 the temperature data was updated to show a 0.8 C warmer than a century ago.

Now wasn't he the guy that got so frustrated with the Bush admin for censoring his work to make it look like GW does not exist?
3750. smuldy
One last thought before I head to a much delayed bed and bookmark this for StormWs blog take; the last two frames have resumed a more west of nw track, this doesn't mean any more than the previous few showing a more north of nw jog, as the synoptic pattern now sits AND per the NHC forecast it will be another 6-10 hours before she really starts taking that turn; i fully expect it to happen right now and if I am in Bermuda I am watching this and in the northeast/eastern canada I am paying attention to any long term ridge patterns that MAY impede any further easterly curve; it is a small storm, and so should it hang to the east of Bermuda it may feel no more than tropical depression/storm force winds, should it head a bit more west before making the turn then bermuda should keep a close watch; as far as further north there is plenty of time to see what patterns develop, but there is a chance a ridge could build back in and force it west of its inclination so do not dismiss it outright just yet, the odds of it slipping under any initial weakness and jogging due west while 'splitting the difference' between the steering layers inclination to the sw and the stroms inclination to the north remain very low; past 7 hours i do not expect this trend; that said this is an unusually strange setup for august so anything can happen and i look forward to waking up to this somewhere around 19/50, but may well be wrong. See you all in 12 hours. Have a good day/night everyone
3751. Bayside
Quoting MahFL:


oh and be carefull crossing the roads........


Oh, because of the methane producing cows that are causing climate change? I heard about them...
you cannot convince a dog that thinks he is a wolf that he is not a wolf;



I've been called worse things by better people!
3755. FLHL2
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.


Interesting. I was watching a televised program not too long ago about the great dust storm of the dirty thirties. Looking at this graf it would apear we are nearing the peak of the warm phase. How will scientists blame the future cooling phase on mankind?
good morning guys wow just last night we where looking at a hurricane that looked like a cat 3 to now a hurricane that look like a tropical storm and not the good kinds

so this is what I see for today cat 2 Hurricane(if dosen't look any better or looks like it need to be rushed th the hospital) then it would be down graded to cat 1 or strong TS

and pre-TD7 becomes well TD7 and I see a west ward track a much westward track and south of the poor little hurrricane to the N
Anybody else detect a little counterclockwise twist in the GOM water vapor loop? (27N 90W)

Lots of dry air to the north of fit though. Any thoughts?
Here is Danielle yesterday when it popped out an eye.
3759. o22sail
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.



I couldn't help but notice how the smaller, more regular temperature peaks seem to mimic progression of solar cycles every eleven (or so) years.
That's curious.
So the vaunted trof is all but gone on steering this morning, and yet we're still looking at a hard northwestern turn according to models?

I'm with Storm, Bermuda is at heavy risk now and I wouldnt be surprised to see Danielle keep chugging west if she gets beneath the core of that high.

Like we said the other day. 60 and below 20? Trouble.
3762. Relix
285 confirmed heading. Seems like 290 at the moment and actually aiming a bit north of the next forecast point
MY NEW VIDEO ON HURRICANE..
Howdy all...
here is the latest on earl im just going to call it a tropical depression for now but earl will become a strong tropical storm by afternoon.earl will be a hurricanr by thursday...the track of earl is going to be much different then danielle..the weakness forecast to take danielle out to the fish will not affect earl the strong high will build in behind the weakness causing earl to be a major threat to the bahamas and the east coast of the conus down the road..this is going to be a significant intensifying hurricane RAPID STRENGTHNING can be expected as earl has very little wind shear and a high is building over earl as we speak...this will be the storm of the 2010 season.earl has a huge envelope bigger then danielle...i will be watching this closely as of right now looking at the steering currents down the road earl will not get into the gom thank GOD..however things could change and it needs to be watched...illbe back with more later..
3767. Ossqss
Since the first post of this was quickly blanked out by minuses (why?), here it is again. Interesting stuff from Phil Jones. L8R

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones
3768. jryno
Any chance of tropical formation in the GOM from the stalled out front?
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER SE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SWD TOWARD THE EXTREME NE GULF LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EWD INTO THE SE REGION PAST WED...AND THEN
BECOME REINFORCED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND.
VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN NE AND SE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS ARE
XPCTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT. ELY
WINDS ARE THEN XPCTED TO INCREASE CLOSE TO 15 KTS HEADING TOWARD THE
WEEKEND PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE GULF WATERS.
Excerpt from N.O fcst discussion
No mention of a Low developing along trough in GOM
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yikes. One model actually landfalls Danielle on Long Island, and so does one historical model!


I'm evacuating to the Catskills!
3773. FLdewey
DJ Jazzy Jeff... what's the good word?
So what do you guys think?

1) Will Danielle dissipate?
2) Or will it other come the dry air and strengthen?
3776. Relix
3777. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


[That is all I get when I try to post an image sometimes]

Sounds like a PEBUK issue.
Anticyclone is gone

3781. Relix
Quoting CycloneUK:
Anticyclone is gone



Whoops. =P

Quoting StormW:


Gonna redevelop

The weakening would affect the track sightly am I correct?
danielle is cooked its going to be picked up by the weakness at 50-55 west and not bother anyone but the fish...good news for bermuda even though they will be rocked by large swells..very little affect on the conus...
pronounced NW jog observed
3785. IKE
Quoting Relix:


Looks like a decent job to me.
Quoting jryno:
Any chance of tropical formation in the GOM from the stalled out front?


I'm curious too
Quoting katrinakat5:
here is the latest on earl im just going to call it a tropical depression for now but earl will become a strong tropical storm by afternoon.earl will be a hurricanr by thursday...the track of earl is going to be much different then danielle..the weakness forecast to take danielle out to the fish will not affect earl the strong high will build in behind the weakness causing earl to be a major threat to the bahamas and the east coast of the conus down the road..this is going to be a significant intensifying hurricane RAPID STRENGTHNING can be expected as earl has very little wind shear and a high is building over earl as we speak...this will be the storm of the 2010 season.earl has a huge envelope bigger then danielle...i will be watching this closely as of right now looking at the steering currents down the road earl will not get into the gom thank GOD..however things could change and it needs to be watched...illbe back with more later..


stormno?
Quoting Relix:
285 confirmed heading. Seems like 290 at the moment and actually aiming a bit north of the next forecast point


I think you are right. Some in here seem to be watching the convection and dominant cloud types spining around the overall circulation and follow in that as the movement. Visible loop confirms a near NW movement of the circulation center with it nearly becoming exposed in the NW quadrant.
yes storm i am danielle will not be a threat to bermuda it will pass a few hundred miles east of the island...
3791. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Password is....

West.

Cowboy Curtis says we should scream each time we hear it.

Jambi is not so sure.
the center is now fully visible and exposed on the Visible Satellite



3793. SQUAWK
Getting that squished spider look.

3795. IKE
Easy to see where the COC is now because it's exposed...near 16.4N and 46.1W....

earl will be the new sheriff in town
yes, finally she turns. lol the center is exposed and its supposed to be a cat 2
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Password is....

West.


Had to come out of lurk mode just to say DestinJeff you crack me up - look forward to your posts everyday!!
3768. jryno
Any chance of tropical formation in the GOM from the stalled out front?

That's what I'm looking at right now. Got a little twist in the water vapor image, and a little bow in the trough there. I think there's way too dry of air just to the north and too much sheer for anything more than an AOI.
3801. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:


That's the one I have been trying to post.

I am having image issues this morning.

But gosh darn it, I am smart enough...


Take the "s" off "https" and it will work.
well storm we will see what happens the strong weakness danielle will start to feel at 50 -55 west...its a fish storm bermuda will get large swells thats all
3803. LemieT
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
the center is now fully visible and exposed on the Visible Satellite





This looks a lot like the effects of dry air. Perhaps her faster than expected forward motion didn't allow her sufficient time to moisten the environment ahead. Now she's struggling to maintain convection. I expect winds at 85 mph with the next advisory, and maybe her weakness may affect her overall steering. Only time will tell.
3805. smuldy
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
you cannot convince a dog that thinks he is a wolf that he is not a wolf;



I've been called worse things by better people!
not talking about any one person and heading to bed---if it makes you feel better i'll call you spuds mckenzie since youre feisty and yet sensitive-im just saying given what is going on in the basin can we focus in on that and then you can go and vote for rick scott in a few hours--jeebus---night all
3806. SLU
The satellite representation of Danielle has rapidly deteriorated over the last few hours and if this trend continues, it could very well weaken into a tropical storm today.

Danielle has dared to enter into the domain of the ULL. {whack - boom - bam}

For now, she is powerless!
looking at the WV imagery, Danielle is now at the base of the trough to it's north and thee is very little indication of that tug to the north. i get the impression the trough was not as stong as was forecast. that being said and the possibility of weaker Darnielle i can only see the system moving w-wnw for the next 24 hrs.
3809. WxLogic
Danielle definitely ingesting some dry air. Intensity should remain steady and/or decrease some.
Quoting LemieT:


This looks a lot like the effects of dry air. Perhaps her faster than expected forward motion didn't allow her sufficient time to moisten the environment ahead. Now she's struggling to maintain convection. I expect winds at 85 mph with the next advisory, and maybe her weakness may affect her overall steering. Only time will tell.


Danielle partied too hard at the fraternity house last night and has a serious hangover this morning!
3812. Sting13
Storm, why have the models been so off, I'm sure you explained it somewhere but its burried in the blog somewhere. And why is the NHC track so far east if you believe its going to miss its turn?
i agree slu
the question I have is will the fact that this is weaker cause it to move further west... how much would this have to weaken to avoid both troughs???
3815. LemieT
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Danielle partied too hard at the fraternity house last night and has a serious hangover this morning!


She was the life of the party, now she's beat...
My ignore list has grown exponentially this morning.
storm the deepening trof will erode the high and danielle will feel it and move well eat of bermuda..
a weaker system with steering current at the moment should move west or westnorthwest
Quoting BLee2333:
3768. jryno
Any chance of tropical formation in the GOM from the stalled out front?

That's what I'm looking at right now. Got a little twist in the water vapor image, and a little bow in the trough there. I think there's way too dry of air just to the north and too much sheer for anything more than an AOI.
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N83W 26N87W 25N92W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAIN
IN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 100W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
NHC doesn't see anything happening from this....NOGAPS had something developing on west end of trough for this weekend..a weak low
People need to grow up on this blog.

Neapolitan - excellent response. AGW groups are being foolish. One of their major arguments collapsed, for example - they've been blaming global warming on solar issues, when in fact the sun just reached its solar *minimum*, and will soon begin an upswing in activity.

They are also being dishonest when they minimize causes. Perfect example - there are both NATURAL and UNNATURAL reasons the Earth changes temperature. They try to make people choose one, or choose one over the other. How large does our effect on the Earth need to be before they get concerned? 5% additional change? 10% additional? The effects we're seeing on the ocean and natural world as plants and animals die are far more than this, and as things change they change faster.

I didn't notice a lot of "gentle rains" this summer or spring, have you? It was all powerful gusty storms, then long dry periods. More extreme weather, all the time. Just like climate change science predicts.
Quoting smuldy:
not talking about any one person and heading to bed---if it makes you feel better i'll call you spuds mckenzie since youre feisty and yet sensitive-im just saying given what is going on in the basin can we focus in on that and then you can go and vote for rick scott in a few hours--jeebus---night all



Way to backpedal!


I'm voting for Mac...I'm not real happy about my choices today, He's the lesser of two evils. Career politician vs crook.
Quoting StormW:


Oh...I guess we have to discount the big ridge that's building in right now:

LINK


Here....here is a good post with info to back it up.

Anyone can log in and post comments...

I guess Id rather post an observation and back it up - and iff I am wrong or missing something be corrected and learn from it rather than log in and post FISH STORM all day long.
When was the last time the "B" storm was named Bryan, if ever? Just curious, because my Uncle Bob always gets a named storm! :)
3827. LemieT
Quoting SFlKatCane5:


Yesterday, Danielle made everyone take notice!


Today, she's a zit, get it?


Lol
Quoting Sting13:
Storm, why have the models been so off, I'm sure you explained it somewhere but its burried in the blog somewhere. And why is the NHC track so far east if you believe its going to miss its turn?


At this point Danielles location is nearly exactly where the 06z run of 8/22 GFDL predicted where it would be (check for yourself). I am more interested in seeing if a reduction in intensity occurs and persists and how that may affect its future track.
yes storm i see it but the trough will erode it bermuda is looking good this storm will go out to sea and also weaken...
3831. LemieT
If you look at the RGB loop, it appears as though her low-level structure is running away from the mid and upper levels, leaving the convection behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
Quoting itrackstorms:
My ignore list has grown exponentially this morning.
How to create this? I have tried but it doesnt look like its working or I am not doing it correctly?

Quoting Ossqss:


OSHA's maximum safe level is 3% (30,000 ppm); lethal concentration (death in 30 minutes) is 10% (100,000 ppm)

I wasn't talking about CO2 specifically.

What I was aiming at was that yes, CO2 has a very small percentage of the atmosphere, but that does not mean that it is without impact. Chemicals such as hydrogen sulfide have toxicity levels as low as 300 ppm, with some chemicals having toxic levels even lower.
it is very possible that danielle could be steered around the southern periphery of the high to it's west. by doing so it will have to dip southwest
Quoting DestinJeff:
0900:


1200:


Bermuda high got bigger, and trough to the north flattened out.


Whoa....Im beginning to really second guess this trac...I cant wait to hear from some more experienced METs as to their synopsis on this..
Quoting stoormfury:
it is very possible that danielle could be steered around the southern periphery of the high to it's west. by doing so it will have to dip southwest


It wants a taste of that ULL, just as I want to dip some Skoal right now.

Not good for her, and not good for me!
3840. Times2
The news continues to be great for the US tropic wise. We will complete the month of August without any significant threats and early September doesn't seem to be all that. Hope the trend continues. I personally think the way things are trending that we will not see an overly active season. And the threat to the US less than average, whatever average is, lol. I'm a DOWNCASTER for sure, Yep!!
Quoting rainmound:
People need to grow up on this blog.

Neapolitan - excellent response. AGW groups are being foolish. One of their major arguments collapsed, for example - they've been blaming global warming on solar issues, when in fact the sun just reached its solar *minimum*, and will soon begin an upswing in activity.

They are also being dishonest when they minimize causes. Perfect example - there are both NATURAL and UNNATURAL reasons the Earth changes temperature. They try to make people choose one, or choose one over the other. How large does our effect on the Earth need to be before they get concerned? 5% additional change? 10% additional? The effects we're seeing on the ocean and natural world as plants and animals die are far more than this, and as things change they change faster.

I didn't notice a lot of "gentle rains" this summer or spring, have you? It was all powerful gusty storms, then long dry periods. More extreme weather, all the time. Just like climate change science predicts.


I'm not trying to get into a mad argument, I just want to point a few things out. Firstly, whilst the sun does oscillate between high and low periods of activity fairly regularly, there are much longer patterns, and in fact it is currently reaching a heightened amount of activity. Also, the last solar minimum was suprisingly active, and there were many more sunspots than would be expected.

And I don't think anybody is denying the existence of climate change, rather disputing the extent to which we are at fault.
3842. Bayside
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Regarding the atmosphere destroying methane put out by the cow flatulence , here is a gem of an article from the wackos over at PETA actually making a halfway decent point for once.... (from the article)...we're asking those who recognize that actions speak louder than words to help offset Gore's greenhouse-gas emissions by pledging to go vegetarian for 30 days.
Continued: Link


Haha... PETA... good times! People actually give them money
18 years ago today:

Today marks the 18th anniversary of one of only 3 Cat 5 hurricanes to hit the US - Hurricane Andrew. Do you remember where you were on this day in 1992? I do. Hunkered down, waiting for Andrew to pass over us in Fort Myers. We take a trip back to that fateful day on August 24th, 1992 when Hurricane Andrew terrorized the Miami/Dade county region:

Hurricane Andrew - Path Of Terror
I don't know why some people just don't listen to Storm..........
Quoting Times2:
The news continues to be great for the US tropic wise. We will complete the month of August without any significant threats and early September doesn't seem to be all that. Hope the trend continues. I personally think the way things are trending that we will not see an overly active season. And the threat to the US less than average, whatever average is, lol. I'm a DOWNCASTER for sure, Yep!!


LOL
storm in 24 hours danielle will be upon the weakness and start to slow in forward speed and take the turn to nnw then n and nne and accelerate a few hundred miles east of bermuda...nothing will change danielle cant bust through the trof..it may go a little more west but sure not enough to affect bermuda directly...
Quoting Sting13:
Storm, why have the models been so off, I'm sure you explained it somewhere but its burried in the blog somewhere. And why is the NHC track so far east if you believe its going to miss its turn?


So far off? So far they have been pretty close. The future track? Who knows.....
3849. FLdewey
Ahh Andrew memories... first and last Category 5 I'll ride out. Good times.
Quoting katrinakat5:
storm in 24 hours danielle will be upon the weakness and start to slow in forward speed and take the turn to nnw then n and nne and accelerate a few hundred miles east of bermuda...nothing will change danielle cant bust through the trof..it may go a little more west but sure not enough to affect bermuda directly...


/Facepalm
Danielle looks a little shabby this AM.....
3853. P451
Quoting caneswatch:
I don't know why some people just don't listen to Storm..........

well katrinakat doesnt i do most ppl just not him
3856. leo305
Quoting katrinakat5:
storm in 24 hours danielle will be upon the weakness and start to slow in forward speed and take the turn to nnw then n and nne and accelerate a few hundred miles east of bermuda...nothing will change danielle cant bust through the trof..it may go a little more west but sure not enough to affect bermuda directly...


so it's just going to bust through the HIGH that is currently strengthening and in Danielle's way? Again I've said it many times.. I don't know how it's just going to ignore the high.. unless it weakens significantly I don't see it just movnig NNW/N/NNE as if nothing was there
Quoting Times2:
The news continues to be great for the US tropic wise. We will complete the month of August without any significant threats and early September doesn't seem to be all that. Hope the trend continues. I personally think the way things are trending that we will not see an overly active season. And the threat to the US less than average, whatever average is, lol. I'm a DOWNCASTER for sure, Yep!!



Careful!

"Downcasters" on this site get treated almost as badly as us "deniers"!
danielle is entraining dry air now and imo is weakening..
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Today marks the 18th anniversary of one of only 3 Cat 5 hurricanes to hit the US - Hurricane Andrew. Do you remember where you were on this day in 1992? I do. Hunkered down, waiting for Andrew to pass over us in Fort Myers. We take a trip back to that fateful day on August 24th, 1992 when Hurricane Andrew terrorized the Miami/Dade county region:

Hurricane Andrew - Path Of Terror

I was 10 yrs old and glued to the weather channel!
Quoting caneswatch:
I don't know why some people just don't listen to Storm..........

He makes sense. Can't listen if it makes sense. After all, what could they panic about then, and troll for fights about?
3861. markot
storm wont a strong high pressure be building in to keep earl from going north ....
well leo look at the sat pic its entraining dry air into her system right now and she is weakeneing...
3865. Times2
Quoting stoormfury:
it is very possible that danielle could be steered around the southern periphery of the high to it's west. by doing so it will have to dip southwest


When I am driving my car down the road sometimes I try and use my mind to steer it left or right. No matter how hard I try it just doesn't obey me. I don't get it.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I don't think anybody is denying the existence of climate change, rather disputing the extent to which we are at fault.


Oh, but that's where you'd be mistaken. Denial that warming is occurring is one of the three prongs of GW denialism (as it is with all denial in any form):

Prong 1: Simple Denial. Deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether. ("There's no heating taking place!" and/or "The climate is cooling!")

Prong 2: Minimisation. Admit the fact but deny its seriousness. ("Yes, it's warming, but what's the big deal? If anything, it'll only warm up a little bit, and that just means a longer beach volleyball season!")

Prong 3: Projection. Admit both the fact and seriousness, but deny responsibility. ("Yes, it's warming, and okay, it's horrible...but we humans have had nothing to do with it; it's sunspots and natural variability!")

Yeesh. Didn't any of you scholars take Psych 101 in college? ;-)
3867. A4Guy
Danielle's COC is exposed in the last few frames of the vis sat. You can see from the NHC fcst point overlays she is more or less on target - maybe just a tad south of the next fcst point...but barely.

Sorry westcasters. : (
Quoting StormW:


Please.


StormW, I will not get into a challenge with you because I know I can't win:)

What am I missing? How far off is the GFS with Danielle's position right now versus a model run from 3 days ago?
WINDSAT



ASCAT

This is a public service for those that may be fairly new to the blog...

HOW TO IGNORE:

Go to the top of this page. In the "My Quick Menu" pull down and select "My Blog". On the right side of the page select "Modify My Ignored List".

Try it! It is very refreshing and liberating!
US Navy Blue Angels are sure making a racket this morning!
I'm going with IKE on danielle, it will die off to a TD. Cause: Wind shear and dry air.
3874. Relix
Facts at the moment:

1) High is strong and has grown bigger. Trough is taking its sweet time and doesn't seem that strong at the moment.
2) Steering layers indicated a WNW movement then once more a West movement for about 8-12 hours or even more depending on that trough.
3) Danielle is getting weaker. A weaker system will tend to go more westwards and be steered by another flow. It may even miss most of the effect of the trough.
3875. o22sail
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
18 years ago today:


Pic reminded me of a vintage Horror Movie poster.
ok relix but i can tell you now this storm will miss bermuda by a few hundred miles...
3877. leo305
Quoting Relix:
Facts at the moment:

1) High is strong and has grown bigger. Trough is taking its sweet time and doesn't seem that strong at the moment.
2) Steering layers indicated a WNW movement then once more a West movement for about 8-12 hours or even more depending on that trough.
3) Danielle is getting weaker. A weaker system will tend to go more westwards and be steered by another flow. It may even miss most of the effect of the trough.


this
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm going with IKE on danielle, it will die off to a TD. Cause: Wind shear and dry air.


What wind shear?

Dry air is what is hindering it now.
Looks like the Rossby wave is set to stall out over the Atlantic mid latitudes over the next few days as this very strong subtropical system develops near the Azores. The Jet core will lift N and east coast trofs During the 48-144 h period appear to be lifting N and out of the mid-latitude stream. Meanwhile Danielle is pumping up the heights to its N and W along the track....with an elevated Rossby wave and high pressure aloft building on to the E coast by day-5, there won't be much in the way of steering. It will stall and after that ensemble MSLP spread shows position uncertainty from the NJ coast to eastern Newfoundland. Bottom line...too early to call, but if she survives she'll be around for a while...lurking :)
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Today marks the 18th anniversary of one of only 3 Cat 5 hurricanes to hit the US - Hurricane Andrew. Do you remember where you were on this day in 1992? I do. Hunkered down, waiting for Andrew to pass over us in Fort Myers. We take a trip back to that fateful day on August 24th, 1992 when Hurricane Andrew terrorized the Miami/Dade county region:

Hurricane Andrew - Path Of Terror


Huddled in my tiny Cutler Ridge condo with my then-wife, a two-year-old girl, and a nine-month-old baby. Good times, that... :-\
3882. Relix
Also I can't understand the models. They keep pointing up and breaking through a powerful high so quickly. There's no way that's happening at the moment.
3883. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
Ahh Andrew memories... first and last Category 5 I'll ride out. Good times.
It is weird...When I think back, it does not seem like 18 years already. Its still a vivid memory.
I think this will continue to weaken till a weak TS which will allow it to turn back toward the west and then once it gets through the dry air it will restrengthen then thus increasing the threat to the US
you people dont really want to see the trur picture the NHC has this pegged and is doing a fantastic job...these are the professionals people listen and learn from them...danielle is weakening right now you can see it be sat ..
"Yeesh. Didn't any of you scholars take Psych 101 in college? ;-)"

Actually, I'm 17, so wouldn't have done so yet.... Haha.

Ok, so I can't speak for everyone else here, but personally I don't fall into your first two stages. I believe that global warming is occuring, and understand the serious implications it has.

But as for number 3, I'm right in there. I don't believe human impact is a significant factor.
3889. leo305
Quoting AllStar17:


What wind shear?

Dry air is what is hindering it now.


There's clearly some shear coming in from the northwest, I assume it has to do with that ULL to it's north
As far as model verification so far, and the NHC track, since Danielle developed, everything looks pretty good. Some slight deviations, but nothing drastic which is nice when it comes to forecasting. The last 24 hours we have seen the models very slightly move West, as far as whether this affect Bermuda or not. I believe there will be two main forecasting caveats with this system, does it come close enough to Bermuda to affect them with TS or Hurricane force winds, and will this Westerly shear continue today(seems like its coming in alittle sooner then forecasted), thus weaken Danielle and she wont become a Major. Other then that its a pretty simple forecast.
Still moving west, no sign to north just gain 2 degree latitude in the last 36hours.

My personal opinion Danielle not turning north till 24h or 36h, And has said StormW bermudas is a possible target.
Where's the Doc when you need him? :)
3893. leo305
Quoting katrinakat5:
you people dont really want to see the trur picture the NHC has this pegged and is doing a fantastic job...these are the professionals people listen and learn from them...danielle is weakening right now you can see it be sat ..


very contradictive, the NHC forecasts a MAJOR HURRICANE, and you claim to listen to them , and then point out it's weakening.
3894. P451
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
US Navy Blue Angels are sure making a racket this morning!


I just had two fighter jets streak over me here in central NJ.

It's not an everyday event.

Wonder if something is afoot.

the dry air will flood into the center very shortly because the boundary that the storm has set up in front of it has been weakening all morning.... once that is gone nothing will stop a lot of dry air from intruding the center
3896. Prgal
Quoting Relix:
Facts at the moment:

1) High is strong and has grown bigger. Trough is taking its sweet time and doesn't seem that strong at the moment.
2) Steering layers indicated a WNW movement then once more a West movement for about 8-12 hours or even more depending on that trough.
3) Danielle is getting weaker. A weaker system will tend to go more westwards and be steered by another flow. It may even miss most of the effect of the trough.


Hola Relix. What does it mean?
looks like 96L is becoming a td
3898. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
It is weird...When I think back, it does not seem like 18 years already. Its still a vivid memory.

Agreed I can't believe it's been that long. I very vividly remember the sound of the roof trusses as they failed one by one. I still get chills when I hear loud wood cracking.
LOTS OF Dry air GOING INTO HURRICANE Danielle
3900. hydrus
Quoting leo305:


There's clearly some shear coming in from the northwest, I assume it has to do with that ULL to it's north
I posted yesterday that the ULL would start to effect Danielle in 18 to 24 hours. It is happening a little sooner than I thought.
check out GOES EAST WV IR/2 immagery and one will that the trough to the north of Danielle has weaken and flattened out. This the reason for the systemnot taking that drastic turn
3902. SLU
815UTC



1345UTC



leo no matter how bad you want danielle to come to the east coast its not going to happen now earl is a different story you are going to get your wish there..
2010 will be remembered as the Year of the Serial Killer ULLs!
Quoting StormW:


clwstmchasr,
My point is, yeah theY MIGHT have it now, but if you go back and look at ALL of the model guidance for the past 3-4 days...all those lines point more toward 300. If she's been moving that way...how come she's still only at 16.5N?


Models probably ignoring the -NAO.
3907. markot
storm isnt a strong ridge going to build over the atlantic in a few days.....
....and so now what we have is a combination of time and atmospheric intensity that will effect Danielle as she moves closer to the 50-55W Longitude line. The timing is not based on the first trough which apparently is not going to be the one to suck Danielle to the north as it was not as strong as forecast and the HP ridge was and is more powerful then expected.

What appears to be the real critical point is the low pressure system sweeping across the midwest all the way down to Texas and points south today. The first part of this wave is just passing through the DFW area, now, and is causing a major T-storm outbreak alone the Red River that is progressing south towards DFW.

As I said a couple of days ago, this Mexican HP system over Texas that extends into SE part of the United States is very powerful this year. LP systems from the north have just bounced off of it and and the prevailing jet stream that is responsible for storm systems moving to the south has pretty much kept everything to the north the last several weeks since the end of June.

Add to that, the building disturbance in the GOM and this could be a real interesting series of atmospheric events in the next 48-72 hours.

Will see if Danielle can stay continue to (1) move real fast at a continuous 17 knts on a 280 degree bearing, such that she continues to ignore the influences of the first trough, and (2) if the LP system sweeping across the center of the US keeps dropping further south and moving fast enough to get in position to pull Danny to the north before she gets really far to the west (again, around the 70W line).

Just for a real stretch, for the real meterological experts out there (StormW, Drak, Keeper, DJ, and others) do you think that Frank moving northwest up the west coast of Mexico is a big enough system that it could effect the movement of the LP system moving across the US to the point where it may have some effect on the size, power, and location of the trought that will form off the east coast of the US in the next 24-48 hours?

Just curious......
Quoting leo305:


There's clearly some shear coming in from the northwest, I assume it has to do with that ULL to it's north

????
yes markot that is whats going to guide earl on a more westerly component towards the conus..
StormW, what time do you anticipate having your update today?
3913. Relix
Quoting Prgal:


Hola Relix. What does it mean?


Hey PRGal! That it's gonna move more west than predicted =). Bermudas is in the fire zone I would say. Don't worry about us in PR, there's a one in 100 chance it even gets close to us =P. Only way to put us in danger is if it sustained a WSW movement for 12-18 hours which is extremely unlikely, so fret not! =P
3914. IKE
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm going with IKE on danielle, it will die off to a TD. Cause: Wind shear and dry air.


I never said that.
3915. Prgal
Quoting Relix:


Hey PRGal! That it's gonna move more west than predicted =). Bermudas is in the fire zone I would say. Don't worry about us in PR, there's a one in 100 chance it even gets close to us =P. Only way to put us in danger is if it sustained a WSW movement for 12-18 hours which is extremely unlikely, so fret not! =P


Thanks! By the way, New Blog!
3916. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:

Agreed I can't believe it's been that long. I very vividly remember the sound of the roof trusses as they failed one by one. I still get chills when I hear loud wood cracking.
When people ask me what it sounds like(trusses Failing) I ask them if they have ever pulled a nail out of a thick piece of wood and it has that ear piercing screech. They usually answer yes. Then I say multiply that times ten thousand and factor in the wind sreamin through the trees. that,s what it sounds like.
danielle is really being sheared right now ...she wont make cat 2 she will be downgraded to a minimal hurricane by 5pm...the shear must be close to 20-25knots right now..
3919. fsumet
Still not going to start advisories with the invest off the coast of Africa. NHC said they weren't confident it had a closed low on the last pass, but advisories may start up this afternoon when they get a better look at it.
3920. Prgal
NEW BLOG
Quoting DestinJeff:
Danielle Don't Feel the Weakness

She must need More Cowbell.


Another one of my favorites! Das war zehr gut
Quoting StormW:


clwstmchasr,
My point is, yeah they MIGHT have it now, but if you go back and look at ALL of the model guidance for the past 3-4 days...all those lines point more toward 300. If she's been moving that way...how come she's still only at 16.5N?


Thanks Storm. I guess I should ask you that question?
Thanks StormW!
Quoting StormW:


About 11:00-11:30
Your on to a possibility? Checking somethings out first?
Quoting StormW:


Wrong again


aha storm=right kat=mostly wrong
Quoting TexasHoosier:
....do you think that Frank moving northwest up the west coast of Mexico is a big enough system that it could effect the movement of the LP system moving across the US to the point where it may have some effect on the size, power, and location of the trought that will form off the east coast of the US in the next 24-48 hours?

Just curious......


Frank is too remote from the westerlies to affect the progression of the east coast trof as is moves offshore during the next couple of days. What's kicking the trof offshore is a digging trof dropping on to the west coast and building then shifting the western ridge further east. Looks like Frank will feed some high level moisture into the SW US after day 5..but no effect in the short term.
DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS...BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN STRENGTH...
WTNT41 KNHC 241442
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
TO ITS WEST. ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC
SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED. DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE
HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS
ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...
WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF
CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH
AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17. THIS MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IS
REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION
BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK
MOTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.6N 46.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 48.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 50.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 52.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 53.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 32.0N 59.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT31 KNHC 241442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS...BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
3931. hcubed
Couldn't pass up this one:

Quoting Neapolitan:

"...The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest..."

And the fact is, in the earth's history, it has been warmer than we're seeing now - before man's arrival, and before the modern industrial age.
Amazingly still not north of 20 and Danielle should be able to digest out the drier air.
Quoting hcubed:
Couldn't pass up this one:

Quoting Neapolitan:

"...The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest..."

And the fact is, in the earth's history, it has been warmer than we're seeing now - before man's arrival, and before the modern industrial age.


Sorry everyone else (I'm stuck for another week doing mindless data analysis and hence surfing the web amlessly during runs), anyway: couldn't pass this up either.

Just try this link for a series of articles on why the whole "global warming before so it doesn't matter now" is poorly thought out.

3934. hcubed
Quoting FLHL2:
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.


Interesting. I was watching a televised program not too long ago about the great dust storm of the dirty thirties. Looking at this graf it would apear we are nearing the peak of the warm phase. How will scientists blame the future cooling phase on mankind?

And add to that the FACT that the longest stretch of +100 degree temps was a 160 day period in the 20's.
Link

700 - 850 steering map
Considering that the United States does not consider Palestine a Nation, why are you counting it as such on your blog's heat record count? Seems like an openly political statement you are making rather than a meterological one. As such, you are going against your own standards for this blog.
The kids are at school. 2 posts in only a half an hour.
Quoting caneswatch:
The kids are at school. 2 posts in only a half an hour.


That's what I was thinking. Although I am at school..just a break in classes.
Quoting neonlazer:


That's what I was thinking. Although I am at school..just a break in classes.


I'm surprised because there's Danielle and there's a Tropical Depression waiting to happen.
3940. b4dirt
Link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al06/loop_5W.shtml
kind of tells the story!
No posts in the last hour. That's a first i've seen on here in ever.
Boy did this blog go dead in a hurry!!!
Quoting lahurrbuff:
Boy did this blog go dead in a hurry!!!


I know. Usually busy when it's like this out in the Atlantic.
. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAS
NOT YET FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

8 posts in the last 3 hours. That won't last long, the kids are coming home.
Thank you very much for your extremely interesting news. Greetings from the hot Finland.

However, I would kindly like to correct one mistake. You say: “Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.”

The new record is ok but the old record was 96.6°F (35.9°C) at Turku (Western Finland), not at Jyvaskyla (Central Finland), on July 9, 1914. I got this information from Finnish Meteorological Organization.

We have also got several other records in Finland during this summer (2010):

-Most days with temperatures over 77.0°F (25.0°C) during one summer (June-August): 48 days at Kouvola, Utti Weather Station (the former record was 42 days at Heinola in 2006).

-Most days with temperatures over 77.0°F (25.0°C) during one month: 27 days at Kouvola, Heinola, Lahti and Puumala in July (the former record was 22 days in 2003).

-The highest monthly average temperature (July): 73.4°F (23.0°C) at Puumala (the former record was 71.8°F / 22.1°C at Lappeenranta in 1925).

-The highest temperature ever recorded in August: 92.8 F (33.8 C) in Heinola, Puumala and Lahti (the former record was 91.8 F / 33.2 C at Sulkava in 1912).