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Danielle a hurricane; TD 7 forming off coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2010

Hurricane Danielle has stopped intensifying and is now looking a bit ragged this morning, but remains a respectable Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The intensity of Danielle's heavy thunderstorms has waned in the past few hours, and the organization of the storm is less impressive. This is probably due do strong upper-level winds out of the west that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and injecting some of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that surrounds Danielle. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, but is far from any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and the forming Tropical Depression Seven (right side of image.)

Forecast for Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Danielle more to the northwest by Wednesday, keeping Danielle well to the east of Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but it currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm. History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. As far as intensity goes, it is looking unlikely that Danielle will attain major hurricane status (115+ mph winds.) There is enough dry air and wind shear affecting the storm today that it will take several days for the storm to recover its strength, making it less likely the storm can hit Category 3.

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.


Figure 2. Plot showing historically the percent chance of a tropical cyclone in a given location impacting the U.S. East Coast. For storms in Danielle's current position (orange hurricane symbol), about 20% of them go on to hit the U.S. East Coast. For storms in 96L's current location (red circle with a "?" in it), the odds are also 20%. Image credit: Bob Hart, Florida State University.

96L (soon to be Tropical Depression Seven)
Satellite images suggests that a tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday morning has developed a closed circulation, low-level spiral bands, and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. While this morning's ASCAT pass does not show a clear closed circulation, satellite estimates of 96L's strength support calling this a 30 mph tropical depression. It is likely that this storm will be designated Tropical Depression Seven later today. 96L is already bringing heavy rain and strong, gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Winds were sustained at 26 mph at Mindelo in the northwest Cape Verde Islands this morning, and 24 mph at Praia, the station closest to the center of 96L. Both stations were reporting widespread dust, due to strong winds blowing Saharan dust from the coast of Africa. However, water vapor satellite images show that only a modest amount of dry air is accompanying this dust, and dry air is currently not a major detriment to 96L. Wind shear is about 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are warm, 28°C.

Forecast for 96L/Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next four days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for 96L. Most of the intensity forecast models bring 96L to hurricane strength by four days from now, and this is a reasonable forecast. 96L should become Tropical Storm Earl later today or on Wednesday, and will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to the southernmost Cape Verdes Islands tonight and Wednesday.

The long range fate of 96L remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. 96L may encounter the cold waters stirred up by Danielle at times this week, inhibiting development. As 96L approaches the central Atlantic five days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that will be steering Danielle, and 96L should turn more to the northwest. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve 96L out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make 96L more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in 96L's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

When will the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico get active?
The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently features relatively dry, stable, sinking air. This is due, in part, to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The latest MJO forecast from the GFS model calls for the wet phase of the MJO to move into the Caribbean during the first week of September. However, keep in mind that forecasts of MJO activity 1 - 2 weeks in advance are not very skillful. The GFS model forecast of MJO activity made two weeks ago did fairly well for the first week, but poorly for the second week of the forecast.

Tropical Storm Frank spares Mexico
Over in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has moved away the coast far enough from the Mexican coast to no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat, and all tropical storm warnings have been dropped.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. I'll focus on Danielle, Earl, and Frank, and discuss the possibilities of a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane period coming during the first week of September.

Today's show will be 30 - 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. surfmom
Quoting mydiapersarefull:
With 'soon to be named earl' following Danielle, there is the potential for surf all the way through the Labor Day weekend, meaning:

-red flag days throughout
-over 300 saves by lifeguards
-over 50 saves by surfers
-extra 500 idiots in the water


well said - I don't know about the surf all the way through to labor day - goodness you live in paradise - but I do agree w/the saves
it's why I beached myself yesterday -- water & wind was too rough - I never want our lifeguards to work more then necessary - got to RESPECT the power of the Water, Wind & WAVE
3003. RJT185
Quoting StormW:


Or 0% if you worship the models.



**bows to the all mighty models** haha
3005. surfmom
Quoting Tazmanian:



TD 7 has a pine hole eye
OMGOSH, claps hands, you are always so quick to see these things TAZ...thx!!
I'm curious to see TD #7's path before I go to school this morning

Come on NHC!
I've been away for a while, and now I'm back, and if you remember it looked like we on the Cod were going to be back in drought but now we've finally gotten three days of rain! Glorious! Brown lawns green! Early defoliation stopped! Ground saturated! Now let's just hope it stops, lol!
Quoting StormW:


Or 0% if you worship the models.


Well, it is.

The GFS after all was a member of the Roman Pantheon.

Glaucus, Fortuna, Serapis. (Sea, luck and sky - about right for a model, surely?)

Everyone knows that!
3014. wjdow
Quoting DestinJeff:


OH.. STAND BY.



Quoting DestinJeff:


OH.. STAND BY.





Love the curtains :)
3016. fmbill
Quoting StormW:


I meant the other graphic (Hebert)


Oh no!!! Why did you have to say that? LOL!!!
3017. wjdow
Quoting DestinJeff:


OH.. STAND BY.





lol
3018. surfmom
3011 Cot - LOL

"The other graph" - LOL
Gaaaak! The Herbert fish shower curtain boxes!
3020. hoenn
TD 7 looking good, probley bill part 2! But I think it will not go the bill path, it will probley miss the weakness and hit florida and into the gulf of mexico.
Good Morning/Evening

We finally broke our string of 90+ degree days. That set it from 41 to 46 days in a row. Thank goodness for the rain or there would be nothing but ash south of I-10. Back in the 90's again today, but it was great to have a cloudy break.

I liked the Haven show yesterday. Keep it up.
Quoting hoenn:
TD 7 looking good, probley bill part 2! But I think it will not go the bill path, it will probley miss the weakness and hit florida and into the gulf of mexico.


Maybe...
3023. Jax82
Could someone post the current MJO and the forecast?
3024. breald
Quoting klaatuborada:
I've been away for a while, and now I'm back, and if you remember it looked like we on the Cod were going to be back in drought but now we've finally gotten three days of rain! Glorious! Brown lawns green! Early defoliation stopped! Ground saturated! Now let's just hope it stops, lol!


Yes it needs to stop!! The dogs and I are getting depressed because we cannot spend anytime outside. One day of non-stop heavy rain would have been just fine. But this constant moderate rain for three days is a little much.
Quoting StormW:


(FISH)



are you a fishcaster lol


this kinding
Quoting StormW:


(FISH)


is that your offishial position?
3027. hoenn
earl and danielle ain't fish storms
3028. RJT185
Quoting hoenn:
TD 7 looking good, probley bill part 2! But I think it will not go the bill path, it will probley miss the weakness and hit florida and into the gulf of mexico.

Probably Bill part 2, but won't follow the Bill path? ... seriously?
3029. breald
Quoting StormW:


(FISH)


Storm you think 7 will follow in Danielle's footsteps?
3030. hoenn
no way is it going out to sea
For y'all playing along at home...

We have launched our live eTownHall: Surviving the Storm blog event at Pinellas County. You can enter your questions, and we'll do our best to answer them.

If you really want to bust a gut, you can check me out live tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. as I moderate our panel discussion live on air.

The link is:

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eTownHall

Of course, if this violates the board rules, just lemme know....
3032. hoenn
i bet earl will be a monster
3033. hcubed
Quoting Michfan:


Your caps lock key is broken :P


That's not the only thing that's broken...
Earl is in the trunk.
3035. WxLogic
Here's the current setup and scenarios... I've marked with red circles in the current steering maps for Danielle the DLM highs that should guide TD7 and Danielle:



Scenario 1:

Danielle moves off to the NW to N in order to take advantage of the weakness to the N of her. This in turn allows the DLM High currently guiding TD7 to the W and then bridging with the High building soon over the E CONUS to replace the TROF that is currently in the process of weakening and as you can see allow TD7 to go further W than Danielle was able to.

Scenario 2
:

Danielle moves to the NW to N but is not able to take advantage of the weakness because either the DLM high intensifies enough to prevent too much northerly progress or Danielle decides to stall due to it not being strong enough (CAT2 or CAT3) to create a stronger weakness, but yet allowing enough weakness to allow TD7 to feel it. As you can see on this one, the E CONUS would be dominated by a DLM High and W Africa to C ATL dominated by a DLM high too. Yet around 50W you'll have a weakness that Danielle would have kept open to allow any "train" of tropical organized disturbances to lift up and move away from land.
Or should I say -
"erl is in the Gulf, we just can't see it anymore."
TD 07L has declared.

1st advisor at 5AM EDT.




Stacked up like planes into LAX...

Click for larger image:
3040. hoenn
earl and danielle could hit russia or europe
Earl IS NOT GOING TO BE A FISH STORM YET.
3042. hoenn
thing in the gulf will be on orange i bet
Quoting StormW:


Be about a couple of hours...got another to get off to school this morning.

Glad I read through - I'll stay tuned as well. Would like to know what's going on in the Gulf.
3044. hoenn
earl is Ike Part 2

he won't care for any weakness
The long-term track for Tropical Depression Seven is uncertain.
3046. hoenn
we will have fiona by next week
3048. kramus
I'm off to work.

Class dismissed.
3049. RJT185
Thanks for the MJO data Storm, it'll be a HECK of a September for forecasters!
Quoting StormW:
Sure glad the season is slow:

LOL
It's important to note that several of the computer models take TD 7 immediately to the west-northwest. However, it really has been moving due west for the past 12 hours or so, so more left shifts in those tracks would seem likely:
TD 07L 30kts-1007mb-142N-303W

Visible picture.





Quoting StormW:
Sure glad the season is slow:



LOL! Morning StormW. Looks like we are going to be spitting off CV storms left and right. I am concerned though in like the 8 to 10 day period as it looks like a maasive ridge is going to setup in the east. If that happens then we could very well see some of these systems target the US.
3055. RJT185
Quoting AllStar17:
It's important to note that several of the computer models take TD 7 immediately to the west-northwest. However, it really has been moving due west for the past 12 hours or so, so more left shifts in those tracks would seem likely:


Intensity will be the key in how soon/late TD7 would begin embracing the northernly components the current and future atmospheric setup would offer.
3056. Jax82
Quoting StormW:


CURRENT


FORECASTS







Ah ha, thanks Storm. Its leaving now and looks like it will be coming back not too long after, just like you said!
I've wondered about this each time I see it.. what is that red coloring that shows up on satellite imagery (shortwave) from time to time - you can see it at the end of this run at what I think is 40W/5N?:

Link
Quoting StormW:


Yes sir!



are you JFV?



heh heh heh this playing
Either the blog is eating a lot of posts or it is oddly quiet. I understand there is school, but I did not think that many on this blog were that young.
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! Morning StormW. Looks like we are going to be spitting off CV storms left and right. I am concerned though in like the 8 to 10 day period as it looks like a maasive ridge is going to setup in the east. If that happens then we could very well see some of these systems target the US.
I was viewing the same thing which is why I am discounting some of the model guidance on 96L
3063. angiest
Quoting StormW:
Sure glad the season is slow:



Take 2 on this.

Looks like there are even some future waves currently out in Indian Ocean.
3064. Relix
Quoting AllStar17:
Either the blog is eating a lot of posts or it is oddly quiet. I understand there is school, but I did not think that many on this blog were that young.

It has eaten twice mine =P
3065. angiest
Quoting AllStar17:
Either the blog is eating a lot of posts or it is oddly quiet. I understand there is school, but I did not think that many on this blog were that young.


Seems to be eating posts again.
3067. divdog
Quoting AllStar17:
Either the blog is eating a lot of posts or it is oddly quiet. I understand there is school, but I did not think that many on this blog were that young.
no current u.s threats seems to slow things down. subject to change as always
storm you nailed it AGIAN
Quoting StormW:


Taz...don't let the cat out of the bag!



or the cat may get you


run
Quoting StormW:
Here's a nice one:

DANIELLE


She's a stuborn one. She just doesnt want to go north of 20? Nice intensity
3072. Sting13
Why are some of the models now shifting back west at end of run, is there an unforeseen high building in? Kind of runny just a few days ago this was going out to sea in middle of ocean.
3074. RJT185
Quoting Relix:

It has eaten twice mine =P


Seems like a trend this morning!
Quoting StormW:
Sure glad the season is slow:



StormW being a bit sarcastic again this morning:)
DANIELLE..... even with all the models so close together
Quoting AllStar17:
Either the blog is eating a lot of posts or it is oddly quiet. I understand there is school, but I did not think that many on this blog were that young.

Many of our younger bloggers especially in the South are back at school.
4 of the 6 models on this graphics now hook Danielle back west very close to Bermuda. Those include the GFDL and HWRF. Only the UKMET and GFS sharply curve Danielle out. This should be monitored VERY closely.
Hey Storm,

With Danielle churning up the sea and not it looks like Earl will do the same, how much could upwelling impact some of the waves behind them?
3081. Bonedog
Im baaaaack

Hey everyone =)
TD 7 is gone from the navy site heh


may be they are re nameing it
So what do the models say about the wave over Ethiopia? Rumor has it that the GFS shows recurvature over central Chad. ;-)

Seriously though...interesting model split at the end of the run for Hurricane Danielle.
3086. NASA101
STORMW:

What do you make of recently designated PGI36L at 10W - 10N - definitely lots of convection West of the AOI with moderate vorticity!!

Thanks SIR...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/predict.php#
1964: 'E' storm not until Sept 4th. 5th storm was Hurricane Cleo, named on Aug 20th. [Approaching 4-1-1; 12-6-6 by end].

1988: 'E' storm not until Sep 3rd. [3-0-0; 12-5-3 by end.]

1998: 'E' storm - coincidentally Earl (of Sandwich) - named on Aug 31st. [Approaching 4-2-1; 14-10-3 by end.]

2007: 'E' storm on Aug 14/15th. [5-1-1; 15-6-2 by end.]
I find it amazingly funny on how the GFS shifted west and the GFDL and HWRF models were on the eastern model guidance and now this morning the GFDL and HWRF have shifted west and the GFS shifted east
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Has anyone thought there is the possibility that Danielle and Earl will get close enough to each other to cause the (cant remember the name about rotating around each other) affect and will cause both of the storms at one time or another ot move westward and then southward and cause an impact on US that way


In case someone did not answer this: When 2 cyclones "orbit" around each other it's called the Fujiwhara Effect.
you should start a surf forecast LOL can you post the current steering map?
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 7 is gone from the navy site heh


may be they are re nameing it


Click on any link on the Navy page, it will show up again.
3094. hoenn
TD 7 didn't last long

must be making way for another wave off africa
WOuldn't be completely surprised if 96L went directly to TS status. It looks that good.
That is some tasty vorticity with TD 7

He was being sarcastic
3098. hoenn
earl and danielle are gonna dance
3099. Prgal
Good morning! I see we have TD7 already.
Quoting StormW:


I'll have to look at the SST's out that way...it all depends on where the next few waves exit, and how they track. In a way, it's a bad thing, in that should they be affected by the upwelling, then a weaker system, especially with the pattern change coming, will have a better chance at coming west, and tapping all that TCHP



Okay thanks!
3101. hoenn
Earl is going to be a monster, just the name screams major hurricane

3102. Times2
Cool weather sweeping across the plains. Enjoy it! No hurricanes impacting the US until maybe late Sep. Take your final vacations!! Enjoy life!!
Safe to say that the Advisory #8 (Monday at 11:00 am) forecast track was a bit off:
(the hurricane symbol marks the current center position)
3106. b4dirt
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al06/loop_5W.shtml

Tells the story!
StormW - Do you have any insight as to the GOM this week/end?

tia
3109. Bonedog
glad we are finally getting rain up here in the NE we needed it.

Danielle will surprise folks, not StormW of course ;) but the fish talkers might see something change.

TD7 (earl) I think will get a name by 11am if not at 2pm. Has a nice look to it, strong core structure, havent looked at winds yet though, but with yesterdays 25mph in the CVs I dont see why it wouldnt be named soon with a better apperence right now.

Let It Blow
Let it Blow
Let It Blow
3110. Ossqss
Click to enlarge



3111. Relix
Quoting barotropic:
WOuldn't be completely surprised if 96L went directly to TS status. It looks that good.


it was renamed a TD. NHC just hasn't updated yet.
3113. angiest
Quoting CycloneUK:
That is some tasty vorticity with TD 7



Did the vorticity in the Gulf get stronger?
3114. RickWPB
Quoting jrweatherman:


StormW being a bit sarcastic again this morning:)


LOL. Yeah, Storm's 'sarcastic flag' is on... "(fish)" and "Sure glad the season is slow:".
invest 96L LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL STORM SOON.
Morning. I see the GFS is still favoring a parade of CV-type systems, with "Earl" developing from TD7 soon and "Fiona" on its tail. Danielle would have to be one monster storm to bust right through a building ridge and then evidently undermine most of the A/B high over the Atlantic, as 06Z looks like it is showing. I expect Danielle will stay off the CONUS coastline, but the destruction of the high is really hard for me to believe at this juncture. 06Z depicts there pretty much not being a high until after the passage of all three hurricanes.

And I find it interesting that a few runs ago, the GFS was saying that Danielle would feed on "Earl" and prevent it from becoming anything significant, whereas now it is suggesting that the proximity of "Fiona" to "Earl" could result in "Fiona" being weaker and smaller.
Quoting StormW:


Lookin at things now...I'll have it in my synopsis.


Looking forward to it as usual.! Long time lurker
Quoting AllStar17:
4 of the 6 models on this graphics now hook Danielle back west very close to Bermuda. Those include the GFDL and HWRF. Only the UKMET and GFS sharply curve Danielle out. This should be monitored VERY closely.


I really wish I could dig back into some posts where the model guidance was the holy grail and some were shouting fish and forecasting hooks before or at 45 W. Danielle is still not above 20 N and is beyond 45 W. I don't want those individuals who were calling this storm to hook /fish to begin feeling bad. Nor do I want them to feel like I am calling them out because they are all my friends (yes including jason)but I will say however that model guidance is a good indicator but not the gospel. I didnt stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. I just listened to one "grumpy old man"....
Quoting StormW:


Good morning!


Heya Storm! Great call of the further westward movement of Danielle!! You really did your homework (not that you don't always)!
now
3123. Patrap




already have west winds in the western gulf at the low levels
3125. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes. And Leroy got larrrrrrrger.


It's Leon!

There's a sale at Penney's!
3126. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


Good morning!


Good morning Storm! I am looking forward to read your synopsis. I see that TD7 might be a problem for the Caribbean and the wave behind it. We will see...
3127. breald
Quoting jason2010xxxx:


I am looking at the site and don't see this up yet. Where did you pull that from?
All this talk of the blog eating posts sounds like an ID-Ten-T error, or maybe a problem with Layer 8. Before you hit the 'Post Comment' button on any comment--especially a long, well-thought-out one--it's always a good idea to highlight the entire post and copy it to your clipboard. (On a Windows machine, just hit the CTRL-A combination when still in the 'Your Comment' box, followed by CTRL-C) That way if the "blog eats your post", you can simply go back to the 'Your Comment' box, paste the comment (CTRL-V on Windows), and resubmit it. Voila! You've then successfully fixed this particular ID-Ten-T error.
3129. Patrap
..Lordy..

LOL
3130. Patrap
..or maybe use the 'Preview Comment" button?
3131. angiest
Quoting Neapolitan:
All this talk of the blog eating posts sounds like an ID-Ten-T error, or maybe a problem with Layer 8. Before you hit the 'Post Comment' button on any comment--especially a long, well-thought-out one--it's always a good idea to highlight the entire post and copy it to your clipboard. (On a Windows machine, just hit the CTRL-A combination when still in the 'Your Comment' box, followed by CTRL-C) That way if the "blog eats your post", you can simply go back to the 'Your Comment' box, paste the comment (CTRL-V on Windows), and resubmit it. Voila! You've then successfully fixed this particular ID-Ten-T error.


It's definitely not an ID-Ten-T error since it is happening to me as well.
Quoting breald:


I am looking at the site and don't see this up yet. Where did you pull that from?


That's TD Six (which is now Danielle). TD Seven's track will come out at 11am.
3134. breald
Quoting AllStar17:


That's TD Six (which is now Danielle). TD Seven's track will come out at 11am.


Duh!! I thought it was the track for the soon to be Earl. Thanks.
Quoting DestinJeff:


see, told you.

That makes 1 so far.


Ah, but are deliberate misspellings part of the count?
Some kind of circulation south of Western LA and east of TX/MX border.
Quoting RitaEvac:
already have west winds in the western gulf at the low levels



Yup - posted this last evening. No shear to speak of either.


Quoting moonlightcowboy:
25n, 92.5w development?

RGB LOOP
Might have a US impact lot sooner than Danielle, Gulf is homegrowing a system as we type
Quoting StormW:


Good morning!
Good Morning Stormw . Is Danielle acually mowing west or is it looking like that because the clouds are spreding out over her .
3141. Bonedog
am I on ignore?

wierd...
bad time of year for something to form there,
Quoting angiest:


It's Leon!

There's a sale at Penney's!


and don't call me Shirley! lol
SHE IS STILL MOVING WNW ON HERE


eyewall is redeveloping on Danielle
So its pretty much beautiful outside here in SELA... It will probly still be hot later this afternoon but its definately cooled down!
If you are TX and LA residents, you shall know that there is a possibility of a tropical system in our backyard. Nothing at the moment but be aware that there is some potential for development close to home.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes. And Leroy got larrrrrrrger.


Leon... giggle
Quoting Cotillion:
1964: 'E' storm not until Sept 4th. 5th storm was Hurricane Cleo, named on Aug 20th. [Approaching 4-1-1; 12-6-6 by end].

1988: 'E' storm not until Sep 3rd. [3-0-0; 12-5-3 by end.]

1998: 'E' storm - coincidentally Earl (of Sandwich) - named on Aug 31st. [Approaching 4-2-1; 14-10-3 by end.]

2007: 'E' storm on Aug 14/15th. [5-1-1; 15-6-2 by end.]


+1 Great Post and thanks!
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
SHE IS STILL MOVING WNW ON HERE
How about the last few frames
3153. surfmom
Quoting Bonedog:
am I on ignore?
wierd...
Morning! would never iggy you man of waves
SWFL/Gomex - this is the yellow circle illustrated

and the Surfer's View SWFL/Gomex Gulfster:
We still have a wave in the water this morning in the waist to occ. chest high range with an incoming tide peaking @ 12:12pm.(low @ 6:52pm) Surf looks a bit smaller than yesterday, but there is a few worthy peaks rollin' through. Wind today not as much as a factor, but there are some patches of rain out in the Gulf that will push onshore during the day. Tropics alive and kicking with hurricane Danielle churning towards Florida's wave window and another one, soon to be Earl right on her heels. EC looking at building surf starting on Saturday and lasting well into next week, but the quality will depend on how strong those E/NE winds crank!
Great...now I've got Airplane on my mind. I can see handing Storm a chart:

"Storm, what can you make of this?"

"Well, I can make a hat, a brooch, a pteradactyl..."

Hoping to see some rain today in PBC so I can get out of coaching soccer practice!!
3157. WxLogic
New 12Z Steering:

Weakness not as strong as before and based on the last 3HRs it does appear to be attempting to close out some.

good morning all
Quoting Bonedog:
am I on ignore?

wierd...


No I can see ya, haven't seen ya around lately. Good to see you.
sheri

Morning StormW.
3160. Bonedog
hey surfmom. sounds like you got some nice days ahead of you down there =)

Waitin on Danielle up here. Big wind driven chop right now from the low hanging around. Nothing ridable. Danielle should gives us some nice groundswell soon (weekend maybe sooner)
3161. surfmom
Taz -- if you are still about - eye wall ID on Danielle would be most appreciated...( when she's finished)
3163. Bonedog
hey sheri. Been around all season just havent posted. Been too busy lately. I check up between calls.

have time down today so instead of watching the rain I decided to pop my head in =)
3164. wxhatt
I think we will be pretty safe from any major impacts on the east coast this year. There are a lot of troughs digging down already, and one of the strong analog years (1995) shows that all off the CV storms had stayed out to sea as well.



Quoting RitaEvac:
If you are TX and LA residents, you shall know that there is a possibility of a tropical system in our backyard. Nothing at the moment but be aware that there is some potential for development close to home.


Corpus Christi here so I am paying attention.
3166. surfmom
Quoting Bonedog:
hey surfmom. sounds like you got some nice days ahead of you down there =)

Waitin on Danielle up here. Big wind driven chop right now from the low hanging around. Nothing ridable. Danielle should gives us some nice groundswell soon (weekend maybe sooner)

If you read back, Aurasurf thinks the winds may keep this messy for a while.... but I'm sure the clean up will be real fine. Aura thinks PR may go "Indo".....
Quoting wxhatt:
I think we will be pretty safe from any major impacts on the east coast this year. There are a lot of troughs digging down already, and one of the strong analog years (1995) shows that all off the CV storms had stayed out to sea as well.






?????
3168. surfmom
Quoting RitaEvac:
If you are TX and LA residents, you shall know that there is a possibility of a tropical system in our backyard. Nothing at the moment but be aware that there is some potential for development close to home.
Corpus Christi here so I am paying attention.
SRQ w/ a kid moving to Galveston here so I am paying attention
Quoting StormW:


Good morning!

Storm W: greetings. Do you see a real threat to Caribbean with TD7?
3171. bethie
Good Morning....

Leaving in 10 days for my 50th birthday celebration cruise to the "Saints" (eastern caribbean)... Wondering if TD7 will be a issue?

Thanks to all, especially Dr.M & StormW. I learn so much reading this blog. Formerly from MI, hurricanes didn't mean much until I moved to Tallahassee in 2001. I really enjoy tracking hurricanes. Smiles... -bethie-
Quoting StormW:


Lookin at things now...I'll have it in my synopsis.
More pictures of a developing eyewall... on the visible you can see the entire northern half of the the eyewall is a new hot tower blowing way up above the cirrus deck



3174. surfmom
MLC - I'm just not understanding what's happening in my backyard right now - gomex - thanks for the floater link
Quoting WxLogic:
New 12Z Steering:

Weakness not as strong as before and based on the last 3HRs it does appear to be attempting to close out some.

According to this steering map Daniel has missed the trough and should now take aim for the next trough so it is possible it could again take a more westerly path
Quoting wxhatt:
I think we will be pretty safe from any major impacts on the east coast this year. There are a lot of troughs digging down already, and one of the strong analog years (1995) shows that all off the CV storms had stayed out to sea as well.






WIth the way things may be setting up in the next 10 -12 days, I would be careful about taking that idea for granted.
it is beginning to appear that there could be double trouble down the road. the trough that was suppose to take Danielle off to sea is weakening. the ridge now seems to be rebuilding and going a little more west. at the moment DAnielle and what i pesume to be TD7 are both moving west in response to the strenghening ridge. the whole scenario will change if ther eare no unforseen changes in the upper level environment
Quoting DestinJeff:
D looks to be getting another westerly shove along 20N

Link


DJ~~ Danielle looks like she's going due west, but I don't have a trained eye either, so i could very well be wrong.

sheri
Recon plan of the day was out early..

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
ON HURRICANE DANIELLE NEAR 25.5N 59.7W
AT 27/1800Z.

Quoting DestinJeff:
D looks to be getting another westerly shove along 20N

Link

COC on 20N / 52.5W


Surely, you must be joking.



See the hot towers on here
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
More pictures of a developing eyewall... on the visible you can see the entire northern half of the the eyewall is a new hot tower blowing way up above the cirrus deck





Wow, very good views. Id love to have that link...thanks for that info.
Quoting surfmom:
Quoting RitaEvac:
If you are TX and LA residents, you shall know that there is a possibility of a tropical system in our backyard. Nothing at the moment but be aware that there is some potential for development close to home.
Corpus Christi here so I am paying attention.
SRQ w/ a kid moving to Galveston here so I am paying attention


Houston here - could use some showers for sure.
Atlantic Wide WV Loop

The trough is moving over Bermuda now. Danielle should miss hitting the island easily by miles and miles.
anticyclone where that low in the western gom is
3188. Bonedog
LOL surfmom. That would be awsome if PR does go off.

Im thinking some of the bermuda reefs might get epic too, especially with wrap around.

With a constant onshore flow lately it will be closeout but hopefully one of these digging troughs sends them offshore and then it will glass up and get nice here. New break formed down the beach by me and I think it will go off in a nice 12 to 16 sec period swell just need to wait for one. I am hoping Danielle delivers it. Found the bar while diving one day. Havent seen it break though.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Wow, very good views. Id love to have that link...thanks for that info.


all of the images are short lived pages so here is the link to the home page... you just click the storm on the left side and click the box on the image you want to see... try and look at ones that are in green

Link
Quoting SFlKatCane5:


Poll:

We are all _________!

1) okay
2) hunkered down
3) ready for some action
4) DOOM

You forgot "end times." ;)

Good morning. So, the wave behind Danielle is 100% chance of developing? I don't think I've ever seen that before. Shouldn't it just be TD7?
3191. wxhatt
Yes I understand that there is supposed to be a 500 mb height anomoly over the Northeast, but I think that it may also allow for a weakness in the AB High over the Mid-Atlantic region thus recurving a lot of CV storms.
didn't StormW say after this trough there was another one coming down and much stronger? And it would lift D more northward. I may have it wrong.
sheri
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
didn't StormW say after this trough there was another one coming down and much stronger? And it would lift D more northward. I may have it wrong.
sheri


I am not sure if Storm said it but yes there is another trof coming down... look at US water vapor imagery and you will be able to see the trof easily (Link) it will be moving into western NY today and tonight.
3196. wxhatt
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
didn't StormW say after this trough there was another one coming down and much stronger? And it would lift D more northward. I may have it wrong.
sheri


I think so, unless the Azores Bermuda High stregnthens more.


The blow up over the big bend area lastnight has persisted..still dragging off to the ENE. It's trying to stay over water. Fl is a real inhibiter here. Enjoy the rain.
Can we stop with the New Orleans/Florida loops unless there's a disturbance there? Really clog up the blog where 2 actual storms are forming
The season tally will be up to 5-2-0 later today...but with things proceeding as they are with Danielle, the nascent Earl, and perhaps that whatever-it-is in the GoM, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it up to 6-3-1 by, say, tomorrow evening...

Here's a nice WV image of Danielle, soon-to-be-Earl, possibly-to-be-Fiona, and even a just-might-end-up-being Gaston (that small, dark swirl in northern Nigeria has already caught the attention of the pouch trackers, who may christen it PGI37L later today).

Click for larger image:
lol nhc said western gom is unfavorable o really theres an anticyclone over it
what's with all the troughs this year? Seems strange when so much empahasis this year was on landfall threats.

Please share your thoughts but I heard that September is going to show a much stronger High building westward.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Don't do that to me.

You ever seen a grown Tropical Cyclone with its center exposed?

Not going to bite on the Shirley line.


Well it looks like I picked a bad day to quit sniffing glue.....
3205. HCW
TD#7 model runs from the NHC . Sure does look fishy


Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
Can we stop with the New Orleans/Florida loops unless there's a disturbance there? Really clog up the blog where 2 actual storms are forming


Because why? Neither of the 2 actual storms are ANY threat to land any time in the near future. The possible home grown disturbance int he Gulf IS a threat to land and can easily blow up overnight and be a threat. Living very close to where it is trying to form I would like information on it. Is it really so hard to skip over posts you aren't interested in?
I have to believe at 11 we will have Earl, not TD7
3208. markot
looks like danielle is moving due west, not wnw.
3209. wxhatt
Quoting kshipre1:
what's with all the troughs this year? Seems strange when so much empahasis this year was on landfall threats.

Please share your thoughts but I heard that September is going to show a much stronger High building westward.


I agree; "if" the High builds westward...
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?
Quoting btwntx08:
lol nhc said western gom is unfavorable o really theres an anticyclone over it


Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am not sure if Storm said it but yes there is another trof coming down... look at US water vapor imagery and you will be able to see the trof easily (Link) it will be moving into western NY today and tonight.


Thunder~~ Thanks for the link, I seen it. It looks like a strong trough. so maybe it will do it's job.
sheri
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


But it has been classified as a TD. Happened aT 8:45 AM EDT...
3214. Bonedog
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


It IS TD7 already
Quoting BenBIogger:


there is too much vertical wind sheer right now in the GOM and not enough time right now for this to materialize unless something changes. Models are not picking up on any GOM developments but it is something for residents in the GOM to monitor as it should be a good rain maker.
do we have TD 7 yet? I mean, since we have a near 100% chance, which pretty much solidifies that there is a TD, just want to know if has been declared official yet.
3218. hoenn
this season just started
000
WTNT32 KNHC 251433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 30.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
3220. 7544
morning all shes moving due west again hmmm ?
3221. dmaddox
where did you see that at Neapolitan? cant find it anywhere on NHC's website....
I guess it is a TD lol so i guess i answered my own question.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Check out the visible cloud flow North of 20N, along 55W

Link

Expect D to gain more longitude than latitude, at least over the next 6 - 12 hours.


West she blows!
3225. hoenn
earl will become a hurricane
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 30.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


TD 7 is moving westward
Quoting DestinJeff:
Check out the visible cloud flow North of 20N, along 55W

Link

Expect D to gain more longitude than latitude, at least over the next 6 - 12 hours.


which means another trac shift to the west is possible.

And 96L hasnt been officially classified as a TD by the NHC unless someone wants to post that here as proof?
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting tropicfreak:
do we have TD 7 yet? I mean, since we have a near 100% chance, which pretty much solidifies that there is a TD, just want to know if has been declared official yet.


I think we have earl.....IMO
TD #7 is on the NHC site....just no pics/visuals yet. It's right under Danielle's info.
I'm not liking that westerly trend in the track in every advisory, if this continues I could be dealing with a hurricane on my doorstep here in Richmond Va.
3232. dmaddox
well i see it now but didn't see it at 845am Eastern anywhere
Quoting stoormfury:
it is beginning to appear that there could be double trouble down the road. the trough that was suppose to take Danielle off to sea is weakening. the ridge now seems to be rebuilding and going a little more west. at the moment DAnielle and what i pesume to be TD7 are both moving west in response to the strenghening ridge. the whole scenario will change if ther eare no unforseen changes in the upper level environment



I kept saying that Danielle could miss the two troughs. She missed one and if the other trough is weak then we do got trouble. But it appears yesterday a few of the models including the Gfs, were showing an EC hit now the models show Danielle going out to sea. While the other models that were showing Danielle going out to sea including the Gfdl, show her hitting the EC. Lol. Danielle is still moving wnw and has maintained 17 mph speed since yesterday, after dropping from 20. Doesn't Danielle have to slow down considerbly to make that nw turn? I won't write Danielle off until she is out to sea, until then she is definetly something to watch.jmo
TD#7 model runs will move little more to the south little bite more.
Quoting Bonedog:


It IS TD7 already


Coffee break was just over apparently. Now the fun begins, or more fun begins. Let's see what WOPR and HAL churn out.
Frank becomes a hurricane.
3237. calder
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Yeah I am totally out on why 96L isnt already classified as a TD if not TS. I guess kt winds are not strong enough for a TS but geez at least a TD...

I hope Storm, Levi or someone could learn me on why it hasnt been classified.

Maybe the fella in charge of the crayons this morning at the NHC is having a coffee doughnut break?


Waiting for 11am to classify.
I see a nice hook to the west with Danielle over the last frame. I really thought the turn would happen by now, As the weakness closes, the models may shift west (again) later today.
West She Heads...
Quoting hurricanehanna:
TD #7 is on the NHC site....just no pics/visuals yet. It's right under Danielle's info.


I see it now! Thanks
3241. Bonedog
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT
Good morning guys I have beem lurking around for the past half hour

anyway we have TD7 from NRL

07L.SEVEN, TRACK_VIS, 25 AUG 2010 1415Z UTC (Z)
The current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map. Notice the curved line of yellow (cooler temps) in the far right of the image caused by Danielle-induced upwelling:



The current 26°C isotherm depth chart, showing hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26°C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface, while in the Caribbean, 26°C water extends down to 500' or so (orange/red).



The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red and pink areas in the Caribbean and along the north coast of Cuba have a pretty remarkable TCHP of between 110 and 140 kJ/cm2 or higher.

WOW.....
Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Quoting KanKunKid:


Coffee break was just over apparently. Now the fun begins, or more fun begins. Let's see what WOPR and HAL churn out.


I think WOPR just wants to play a game of Thermonuclear War and HAL is just very mad at being programmed contradictory.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
3248. calder
Quoting dmaddox:
well i see it now but didn't see it at 845am Eastern anywhere


On navy site, they are the first to renumber invests.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.
3250. wxhatt
Even though we are getting High heights over the Northeast U.S., it's showing a weakness over the Central Atlantic.






This 500 mb Height anomoly over the N.E. is supposed to persist at least through Sept.

Unless this changes, I would be 'more concerned' with "Home Brew", rather than the Cape Verde storms.

"Big High to the north look out below..."

The Gulf is showing that now, along with the South East Coast.

3251. Relix
Earl still moving at 270. Expect shifts in the tracks. Northern islands seem to be in the bulls eye? =O
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I see it now! Thanks

No prob...I didn't see it either for a while...
Why's it being initialized at advisory #2, anybody know?
Quoting dmaddox:
where did you see that at Neapolitan? cant find it anywhere on NHC's website....


Which part do you mean?
ITS HERE
3256. Bonedog
Dmaddox at 0845 it was already listed on the NRL website. NHC just waited till 1100 as that is their normal update time. With it not being a land threat yet they felt waiting was OK.
3257. hoenn
Danielle looking good but isn't following the models at all, she is going west at a fast paste, refuses to do her turn. She is alot like Hurricane Ike, she might never make her turn. She will become a major hurricane I think and maybe even surpass Hurricane Emily.

Earl is amazing, and will also go west. I see him hitting Miss Or LA.

I see neither as fish but strong land hitting cat 5

this is a very strong hurricane season
this is the first advisory for td 7 the nhc accidently posted advisory number 2 lol
TD7 looking excellent in our sat images. Great call by the nhc, best looking system so far this season that the nhc has classified. Definitely looks like a TS.



3260. dmaddox
calder: navy site still has it as an invest:

Link

are you talking about another navy site?
Quoting TerraNova:
Why's it being initialized at advisory #2, anybody know?


Just a slip-up, I think.

Forecast/Advisory is #1.

It'll be changed in a minute.
Quoting Relix:
Earl still moving at 270. Expect shifts in the tracks. Northern islands seem to be in the bulls eye? =O


Yes if the trough is not as strong as forecasted, it may skirt them
3264. 7544
td7 might make in it the h box
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 25
Location: 14.3°N 30.8°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

000
WTNT31 KNHC 251440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 52.3W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..
3268. Melagoo
... Looks like we'll have three storms in the Atlantic the next wave looks pretty good too!
Quoting DestinJeff:



shifted further west once again. The trend continues and now the east coast bears watching.
3270. wxhatt
Quoting katrinakat5:
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..


"Um, that way they keep you tuning in for updates (sponsors)" LOL
Crazy how things change...


Forecast for Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Danielle more to the northwest by Wednesday, keeping Danielle well to the east of Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but it currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm. History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. As far as intensity goes, it is looking unlikely that Danielle will attain major hurricane status (115+ mph winds.) There is enough dry air and wind shear affecting the storm today that it will take several days for the storm to recover its strength, making it less likely the storm can hit Category 3.

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.
3272. Melagoo
Quoting Melagoo:
... Looks like we'll have three storms in the Atlantic the next wave looks pretty good too!


Yup. We may have 3 storms in the atlantic at the same time soon.

Quoting katrinakat5:
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..


In other words, keep watching TWC. Please.

The troughs coming through are plenty strong. Check out the low temperatures in the middle of the CONUS tonight...
Quoting hoenn:
Danielle looking good but isn't following the models at all, she is going west at a fast paste, refuses to do her turn. She is alot like Hurricane Ike, she might never make her turn. She will become a major hurricane I think and maybe even surpass Hurricane Emily.

Earl is amazing, and will also go west. I see him hitting Miss Or LA.

I see neither as fish but strong land hitting cat 5

this is a very strong hurricane season



Are you kidding me? Go take your meds-
Quoting katrinakat5:
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..


Perhaps not. They've lost a lot of talent in recent years so they are now generalizing potential impacts.
rwdobson if they are so strong why did danielle miss the most important one...i got news for you sir the other trof behind this one is a lot more shallower then the first ...i have little faith in this at all especially if danielle continues to strengthen..
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yup. We may have 3 storms in the atlantic at the same time soon.



looks like the train has left the station....


I'm not liking this track.
3280. hoenn
false hope

these are no fish
Quoting rwdobson:


In other words, keep watching TWC. Please.

The troughs coming through are plenty strong. Check out the low temperatures in the middle of the CONUS tonight...


Yes I can't wait, here in central Illinois it's been more like Flordia of the past month and a half. Lows tonight are to bottom out in the mid 50's!! woooooo!
3282. Melagoo
If EARL hits the USA ... EARL CAMPBELL (Hurricane) vs JACK LAMBERT (USA)
Earl looks to have a lot more potential of effecting the US than Danielle does
3286. angiest
Danielle and TD 7:

danielle and td7
Quoting Alockwr21:
Earl looks to have a lot more potential of effecting the US than Danielle does


It looks like it may pull off an Isabel.
Quoting CycloneUK:


Wow! That is a DOOM track if I've ever seen one!
3289. hoenn
this season is looking strong
Storm has a lot to get together for his blog this AM....I can see the smoke rising from here!
3292. wxhatt
Now, it's not to say that it's a sure bet that any CV storm doesn't break through a trough. But I think unless there is a big pattern change the 'majority' of Cape Verde storms should stay out to sea.

We need to be more aware of in close development, especially because the MJO upward motion pulse is forcasted to make its way back this way for Sept.
THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.


This is no good....I guess the ATL is really warm eventhough Danielle already stirred up those waters.
Uh guys, I'm not loving those tracks for Earl...I want fish! It is amazing to watch this monsters develop and they are almost beautiful in their swirling power but I like them to stay in the water.
3295. hoenn
earl will be as strong as katrina
3296. 7544
looks like fla better keep 2 eyes on earl as the high builds in by the time he gets to the end of that cone
Quoting Alockwr21:
Earl looks to have a lot more potential of effecting the US than Danielle does
too far out to tell yet. remember danielle was forecast to miss bermuda well to the east. thats not panning out.we have no skill in such long range forecasts.
DOOM!

It's the Eeeeeeeeeee storm!
Quoting tropicfreak:


It looks like it may pull off an Isabel.


Yep...eastern North Carolina strike is the first thing I think about with this system.
Quoting hoenn:
earl will be a cat 5

danielle moist up the ocean for him




I don't know about a cat 5, I do agree that "pre" Earls environment is definitely going to be more moist than Danielles, but He's going over churned up waters, not to mention he's contengent on what Danielle does... IF she Strengthens and stays within arm reach of Earl, Earl won't be much, but if he can get away from her, he's got potential to make people nervous.
So where is the chart showing this much touted trough that's gonna suck Danielle to the north?
Hmmmmm?

time to pass out the prozac...line up kids
i do not like this path at all..its keep going west and to the south.
Danielle is still, currently moving wnw, with speed of 17mph and is still at 85 mph winds. The only thing changed is the coordinates. Look at TD 7, the 5 day forecast doesn't show a storm going out to sea but looks like it may hit the U.S. Coast. I know things can change, both H.Danille and the newly formed TD 7, look to be giving us some problems in the next week or so.jmo
Quoting KanKunKid:
So where is the chart showing this much touted trough that's gonna suck Danielle to the north?
Hmmmmm?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
3307. Melagoo
Quoting hoenn:
earl will be the most intense hurricane on record

mark my words

earl means business



That remains to be seen ... I'm sure EARL will be a Hurricane ... if he ever reaches the GOM you may be right
3308. calder
Quoting hulazigzag:
too far out to tell yet. remember danielle was forecast to miss bermuda well to the east. thats not panning out.we have no skill in such long range forecasts.


Danielle still is forecasted to miss bermuda on the east. Model consensus shifted back this morning.
3309. MahFL
THE BLOG WILL NOW EXPLODE !
3 2 1 .....
3310. NASA101
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I don't know about a cat 5, I do agree that "pre" Earls environment is definitely going to be more moist than Danielles, but He's going over churned up waters, not to mention he's contengent on what Danielle does... IF she Strengthens and stays within arm reach of Earl, Earl won't be much, but if he can get away from her, he's got potential to make people nervous.


PLEASE stop posting utter rubbish!!
Quoting hoenn:
earl will be the most intense hurricane on record

mark my words

earl means business

Facts please
Quoting calder:


Danielle still is forecasted to miss bermuda on the east. Model consensus shifted back this morning.
Really? Proof? I looked at all these models and thats not whats being projected.
3314. angiest
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I don't know about a cat 5, I do agree that "pre" Earls environment is definitely going to be more moist than Danielles, but He's going over churned up waters, not to mention he's contengent on what Danielle does... IF she Strengthens and stays within arm reach of Earl, Earl won't be much, but if he can get away from her, he's got potential to make people nervous.


Danielle has been moving about 15-20 kts most of her life. I don't think she has hung around anywhere long enough to churn up waters to any significant degree. Of course, I could be wrong.

Early is more likely to suffer from being in Danielle's propwash. That is, if she gets enough outflow going.
Yep...eastern North Carolina strike is the first thing I think about with this system.

easy there, chief....
3316. will45
Quoting hurricanehanna:
time to pass out the prozac...line up kids


they are too young for prozac
3319. Melagoo
Bermuda has had their deflector shield in place for over two weeks now Danielle won't touch Bermuda
3320. angiest
Is stormtop back? I see more trolls today...
3321. wxhatt
Quoting Alockwr21:


Yep...eastern North Carolina strike is the first thing I think about with this system.


How can you say this far out. There's so much time and area to cover first...
3322. XStormX
Earl later this after noon?
3323. 7544
earl for so fla maybe
Quoting KanKunKid:
So where is the chart showing this much touted trough that's gonna suck Danielle to the north?
Hmmmmm?



The trough that I heard from yesterday was supposed to head east where the High Pressure to danielle's north was to weaken.. Then the trough would pick her up either when she is close to bermuda or past it.. But I havent checked any maps or new models lately..

Im going to check and see for sure.. I hope this helps in a way..
3325. K8eCane
Quoting mydiapersarefull:
Yep...eastern North Carolina strike is the first thing I think about with this system.

easy there, chief....



How can anyone say eastern NC strike? actually though he said its the first thing he thinks about so my bad
3326. Relix
Earl looks like a close northern islands skirt and an FL EC event while future Fiona seems to aim at the Caribbean and islands. Daaayuuum.
Quoting SFlKatCane5:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


Ummm, that's a water vapor loop. I can't interpret isobars and baroclines very well from it. The overall presentation of the loop makes it appear that the trough is a ridge. But thanks anyway.
3329. K8eCane
wake me up when september ends
3330. Michfan
Quoting hulazigzag:
Facts please


There are no facts here. Only hyperbole. LOL.
3331. wxhatt
Quoting will45:


they are too young for prozac


LOL, we have too may "Doom Casters", they wouldn't be saying that if they were staring a major hurricane for there city...
If you look at the Atlantic full shot you can see that the two tropical systems Danielle and TD 7 are directly connected by one rope of clouds.

Kind of cool!!!
3325. Check who you quote before you type!
Quoting calder:


Danielle still is forecasted to miss bermuda on the east. Model consensus shifted back this morning.
Bermuda is in the cone of error. When danielle was at TD7's position it was forecast to move past bermuda hundreds of miles to the east.
Quoting NASA101:


PLEASE stop posting utter rubbish!!

??? I apoligize if that offended you , I summed up what the majority of what everyone else is saying?
The blog has degraded into a hyperbolic hole whose effect is so intense that not even rational thought cannot escape.
3339. XStormX
Quoting Relix:
Earl looks like a close northern islands skirt and an FL EC event while future Fiona seems to aim at the Caribbean and islands. Daaayuuum.
if earl keeps going at 275 degrees, it might something to watch
Quoting Melagoo:
If EARL hits the USA ... EARL CAMPBELL (Hurricane) vs JACK LAMBERT (USA)


Jack will win
Quoting hoenn:


it will hit florida then lousianna
what do you see that makes you think this? thanks in advance
Quoting Relix:
Earl looks like a close northern islands skirt and an FL EC event while future Fiona seems to aim at the Caribbean and islands. Daaayuuum.


You can't just say it will be some state event when its way out there... There's no way of knowing that just yet.. Its just ur opinion.. But a lot of things can change.. So after 3 days it can change.. so I wouldnt believe the models that far out.. It has a chance of happening but we have to wait and see.. Plus to add a panic of nonsense.. :/
3345. hoenn
Quoting SFlKatCane5:
The blog has degraded into a hyperbolic hole that is so strong that rational thought cannot escape.


it because exept for gustav the tropics been boring since 2006

plus, nothing been eyeing florida since 2005

and most floridacasters went away

wait til earl enters the gomex

the blog will suddelly get active

Quoting hoenn:
throw the models for danielle out

i think she is going to the gomex

she hasn't moved north at all


Everyone sing along now:

Wholly ridiculous...**POOF!**
3347. NASA101
Hoenn:

You are fast becoming an irrelevant blogger with your utter nonsensical comments!!


Model after model had Ike going east of Bermuda. When the first trough had little effect on him. the NHC went into oh $%^# mode.
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010


Thx for the update StormW.. Appreciate!
3350. Melagoo


Shows the various fronts moving through ... steering Danielle north and out to sea ... Earl would be more puzzling to predict
3351. hoenn
Quoting sarahjola:
what do you see that makes you think this? thanks in advance


the High is way too strong and it can't pull north for a long time, but the time it pulls north its up to lousianna. The High is tight and won't break.
take long range swell forecasts with an extra grain of salt...especially magic seaweed...but
possible east coast combo swell brewing?
Combo Swell???
3353. calder
Quoting hulazigzag:
Bermuda is in the cone of error. When danielle was at TD7's position it was forecast to move past bermuda hundreds of miles to the east.


The models have done a pretty good job on the unusually strong trough forming and for them to be only a couple hundred miles out from when Danielle was a TD is pretty good methinks. Hopefully she'll stay on the forecast track and pass east of bermuda still.
Quoting Michfan:


There are no facts here. Only hyperbole. LOL.


LMAO...well said, Michfan! How you been, by the way?
3355. K8eCane
TY StormW...I always take your synopsis to heart even more so than i do the NHC
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010
Thanks for the update. Great info.
Quoting hoenn:
earl is going to be a monster


Time to begin large scale evacuations from New Foundland to Havana...
3337. DestinJeff

Whats the over/under on Earl?
TD7 could be an issue for the CONUS, too early to tell but you know models will shift left with Cape Verde Storms. Happened with Dean (2007), Bill (2009), and Danielle (2010). We need to see how things evolve when TD7 comes closer the islands.
2010 Fish Storms... all models predict all storms to be fish storms
not good
3363. Engine2
Great job Storm! Do you think she will make the turn out to sea after the potential Bermuda strike or could she cause concern for the NE like the GFS said on the 18z yesterday?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2010 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:25 N Lon : 30:44:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -48.7C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 19:31:00 N Lon : 52:09:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


3365. NASA101
Quoting thewindman:
2010 Fish Storms... all models predict all storms to be fish storms


Another Irrelevant blogger! LMAO
3366. wxhatt
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010


Thank You for the detailed Synopsis Storm.
3367. hoenn
Earl and Danielle are both going west
3368. o22sail
Quoting SFlKatCane5:
The blog has degraded into a hyperbolic hole that is so strong that rational thought cannot escape.


extreme density will do that for ya' and once the blog reaches critical mass...we SuperNoduh.
I said over the weekend that Danielle would hit the East Coast. I am sticking to it.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here you can see the troughs ... one along the east coast, then another west of that passing through central Ohio and Kentucky.

The low center for the first one looks to be lifting out to the NNW

Link



I dunno, it looks like a lava lamp to me. You got any of those charts with circles and lines that show the barometric pressure on them?
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
not good


That doesn't look fishy to me...
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010

Thanks as always Storm. This may be the pregame show....but let's hope we don't end up in overtime!
Quoting katrinakat5:
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..
I think I heard them say Cantore is on route to Fl as we speak; his live feeds start at 6 P.M., guess we are safe here then.
Ok boys and girls, while we're all concentrating on whats going on in the far eastern Atlantic, take a close look to home. Watch the satellite loop from NOAA over the G.O.M, and see whats starting to spin at about 25.5N and 93W.
3379. Prgal
New Blog!
Quoting hoenn:


me too

she will hit new york
Lol. you said she was going to the gom. at least get your nonsense straight before you spew it. lol
3381. calder
Quoting NOLALawyer:
I said over the weekend that Danielle would hit the East Coast. I am sticking to it.


I'll munch on my hat if she hits the east coast. The models are fairly clustered, the trough that has been forecasted is clearly developing. Bermuda needs to pay attention, maybe NS but even that's v unlikely.
Quoting KanKunKid:


Ummm, that's a water vapor loop. I can't interpret isobars and baroclines very well from it. The overall presentation of the loop makes it appear that the trough is a ridge. But thanks anyway


Umm, if you can't spot troughs and ridges on a water vapor loop, then you need to stop commenting for a while until you get up to speed. Seriously.
3383. Prgal
NEW BLOG
Good Update as usual Storm. Thanks sir :)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
3337. DestinJeff

Whats the over/under on Earl?


Earl "The Pearl" is currently held at 8-5 in Vegas to hit the US East Coast. I love this play. Bet it with confidence!
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010



Thanks for sharing Storm W. I know that Danielle is suppose to recurve out to sea but its not looking that way at the moment. Seeing shes moving wnw, her speed is still 17mph. I thought when a Storm/Hurricane is going to change track normally slows down or is their other senarios I don't know about. Also looking at TD 7/Earls 5 day forecasted track looks like trouble for someone. Like I said both storms do bare watching, until we have a better fix on them.
Quoting hoenn:
earl will be the most intense hurricane on record

mark my words

earl means business

reminds me of the kid in school that kicked your butt after school, and stole your lunch money.
3388. bird72
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010


Great info. sir... I know is too early, but your thoughts about those new systems, can them affect the Antilles?
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

HURRICANE DANIELLE / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SYNOPSIS AUG. 25, 2010


Excellent work there Chief! Regarding the "Pre game show" Heck yeah! It's on like donkey kong! Even though a direct hit to Bermuda is likely, it looks like Danielle will not be a major hurricane if/when it hits there. It is not a surprise to them and they are ready already.Link
Quoting rwdobson:


Umm, if you can't spot troughs and ridges on a water vapor loop, then you need to stop commenting for a while until you get up to speed. Seriously.


Seriously?
Quoting rwdobson:


Umm, if you can't spot troughs and ridges on a water vapor loop, then you need to stop commenting for a while until you get up to speed. Seriously.


Sounds like your a real nice guy Dobson.
3393. Michfan
Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...well said, Michfan! How you been, by the way?


Been good. Im just lurking at the moment. Too many kiddies for my taste lately.
3394. jonelu
Quoting StormW:


I believe she should make the turn, but will have to be watched closely for when it happens.


She is definitely moving NW or 280 now. But when I pull up the Water Vapor loop or even IR and the hit Trop Pts square...its showing 2 tracks
both of which are to the left of her present track. Whats up with that?
3395. jonelu
whats the deal with these 2 tracks?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html
3396. jonelu
I guess I dont know how to post links
3397. Dakster
Quoting katrinakat5:
TWC just said all interests along the easy coast should keep a very close eye on danielle.they said that they can't rule out a direct strike on the east coast ealy next week..this is unusual for TWC to say this..


Where is the easy coast??


I know where the gold coast and ivory coast is, but not the easy one... I assume you mean east?
Howdy all. I think we've received all of September's rain in the past 24 hours in Shalimar
Hello everyone. It's been about a year since i've posted on here, i'm always lurkin tho :p
Found something interesting about Earl in area forecast discussion for south Florida:

"WE COULD SEE THIS SWELL
ARRIVING TO OUR NRN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
REACHING A PEAK OF 4-5 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS
IS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE SLOW DOWN OR STALLING OF EARL OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS."