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Dangerous Winter Storm Pounds Georgia and South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on February 12, 2014

A historic Southeast U.S. winter storm is pounding Georgia and South Carolina with heavy snow and thick coatings of freezing rain. Car crashes on icy roads from the storm have already killed six people--four in Texas, and two in Mississippi--and travel will be extremely dangerous over much of the South on Wednesday. As of 9 am EST on Wednesday, freezing rain amounts as high as 1/2" had already been observed in Central South Carolina near Columbia. Freezing rain rates as high as 0.1" per hour are expected along a swath from Atlanta, Georgia to the northeast coast of South Carolina. Over 1" of ice may accumulate from freezing rain in areas near Augusta, Georgia. Strong winds will combine with the freezing rain to blow down trees and power lines, and the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index rates the potential impacts from areas which receive at least 3/4" of ice accompanied by winds in excess of 15 mph at a 4 on a scale of 1 to 5. At this level, expect "prolonged and widespread utility interruptions with extensive damage to main distribution feeder lines and some high voltage transmission lines/structures. Outages lasting 5 - 10 days." As of 9:45 am EST, 78,000 customers in Georgia had lost power, and power outages were increasing at a rate of 30,000 customers per hour. About 30,000 customers had lost power in South Carolina.


Figure 1. Predicted snow amounts and freezing rain amounts for the period ending at 7 pm EST Thursday, February 13, 2014. Image credit: National Weather Service Southern Region.

Atlanta shuts down for snow and ice
Atlanta, Georgia, which was shut down by the 2.6" of snow Winter Storm Leon brought to the city on January 28, has been shut down again on Wednesday by Winter Storm Pax. Downtown Atlanta had already received 1/2" of sleet and 1/4" of freezing rain as of 7:30 am EST, making travel dangerous or impossible. Up to 1/2" of ice and 3 - 5" of snow are predicted for the city; Atlanta has only had seven snowstorms in its history greater than 4". The 7 am EST weather balloon launched from Atlanta iced up too much and was lost at about 630mb (12,500'). They decided not to launch another one, since it would probably suffer the same fate. The sounding showed a classic freezing rain profile: temperatures near freezing at the surface, cooling to 24° at 2600', with a a 3000-foot thick layer of warm air above that, peaking at a temperature of 38°. That thick layer of cold air above the surface is supercooling the rain as it falls though, allowing the rain to freeze at impact even if the surface temperatures are 33°. One positive aspect: the ice from this storm will melt out rather quickly compared to previous historic Southeast U.S. ice storms. High temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 40s by Thursday and lower 50s by Friday across South Carolina and Northern Georgia.


Figure 2. Atlanta shut down: At 9 am EST on Wednesday, February 12, 2014, the normally busy lanes of I-75 in Atlanta near the I-285 interchange were deserted. Image credit: Greg Diamond, TWC.

Heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast Wednesday night and Thursday
The storm will move up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night into Thursday, likely bringing six or more inches of snow to major East Coast cities, including Washington D.C., Baltimore, New York City, and Philadelphia. However, depending upon the exact track of the storm, rain may mix with the snow near the coast on Thursday afternoon, potentially keeping snowfall amounts under six inches in New York City and Philadelphia. The winds from the storm are not going to be strong by Nor'easter standards, and only minor coastal flooding is expected. In Philadelphia, where 6 - 10" of snow are predicted, the storm could set a bit of history. If Philadelphia International Airport receives 6 inches or more of snow from this system, it would be the first time since record keeping began during the winter of 1884 -1885 that Philadelphia has had four separate six inch or greater snowstorms in a winter.

Historic U.S. ice storms
Today's ice storm is likely to be more damaging than the January 2000 ice storm, which caused $48 million in losses in north Georgia. However, it will not compare to the damage from the most expensive ice storm in U.S. history, the great February 1994 Southeast U.S. ice storm. That storm killed nine people and caused $4.7 billion (2013 dollars) of damage in portions of TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, SC, NC, and VA. At least 2 million customers were without electricity at some point, and 1/2 million were still without power three days after the storm. Hardest hit was Northern Mississippi, which was deluged with 4 - 5" of freezing rain that created flooding problems. Ice thicknesses of 3.5 - 5.5 inches were common in the state, causing catastrophic damage estimated at $3 billion. Some residents were without power one month after the storm.

TWC has put together a Top Ten Worst U.S. Ice Storms list, and the 1994 storm ranks as the South's worst ice storm. The record for greatest accumulation of ice in the U.S. occurred during the New Year's ice storm of January 1 - 3, 1961, in Northern Idaho, with up to 8" of ice.

Jeff Masters
Snow in Asheville, NC
Snow in Asheville, NC
It snowed yesterday in Asheville and today all the pretty cottages still looked like pictures in a fairy tale.
Rime Ice 02
Rime Ice 02

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 998. vdb0422:
what does that mean? I live there!!
means intense snowfall


if it was summer and you had 40 to 50 dbz echos it would be strong to severe thunder storms 65dbz or higher could indicate severe to extreme activity

but with snow just means a high rate of acc over a short period of time
1003. vdb0422
Quoting 1000. TropicalAnalystwx13:

dBZ is an indicator of the rate of precipitation falling as observed by the radar beam. 45-50 dBZ means very heavy snowfall is on the way.
thanks. Snowing pretty good right now.
Quoting 996. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gonna get a little snowy there


That band in Northern Maryland is torturing me :p It needs to come just a little farther North in PA.

Here pretty snow band... HERE pretty snow band...
getting snowlerious
It's 1:25 AM and we have 8.5" in Barboursville VA (Central VA) snow is blinding out there.
1007. vdb0422
Meterologist in dc uped snow amounts because of heavy snow banding. Up to a foot for immediate metro more north and west.
What do you think about the snow in NE Alabama tropicalanalyst13? How much do you think is falling there?

Quoting 1007. vdb0422:
Meterologist in dc uped snow amounts because of heavy snow banding. Up to a foot for immediate metro more north and west.
I was thinking 12 to 14 inches for city of wash

then another clipper system on the weekend Saturday to be exact could drop anther 3 to 6 inches then the big warmup follows after that

to try and melt some of it
Quoting 1008. BaltimoreBrian:
What do you think about the snow in NE Alabama tropicalanalyst13? How much do you think is falling there?



here is a 96 frame animation

I'm on the upper part of the little peninsula under the IM part of Baltimore. At least 2" outside.

Keeper that is some ridiculous snowfall in the DC area right now. Wow!

And it's only 20F here, Herndon, VA. So if snow to water ratios are say 20:1 with dubs 45-50 then the snowfall rates here.................. yep I'm gonna get buried folks :^)
1013. vdb0422
Quoting 1009. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I was thinking 12 to 14 inches for city of wash

then another clipper system on the weekend Saturday to be exact could drop anther 3 to 6 inches then the big warmup follows after that

to try and melt some of it
i was thinking the same for dc because I.believe the mix will be minima. We have conservative meterologist...
Quoting 1012. Tornado6042008X:
Keeper that is some ridiculous snowfall in the DC area right now. Wow!

And it's only 20F here, Herndon, VA. So if snow to water ratios are say 20:1 with dubs 45-50 then the snowfall rates here.................. yep I'm gonna get buried folks :^)
everything is getting buried in from the coast

and it looks like the rain snow line has made its mark for now and neither advancing or retreating from current position

I-95 @ Prince William Parkway

Quoting 1001. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
means intense snowfall


if it was summer and you had 40 to 50 dbz echos it would be strong to severe thunder storms 65dbz or higher could indicate severe to extreme activity

but with snow just means a high rate of acc over a short period of time



It depends on the precip type an environment, DBZ readings are most bright in a cold atmospheric column but less so in warm process rain, which is why tropical cyclone rain bands can deceivingly not look as heavy as they are. I've seen where rainfall is almost twice as heavy in a tropical situation with a warm column and very high PW for a given DBZ value as a typical situation.

A good way to put it is summer convection typically will dump more for a similar value, especially down here closer to the tropics, but occasionally you guys up north can even see tropical airmasses in the summer do the same thing.


A great example would be the squall line that came through Florida today would have probably dumped 2 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals if it was with a summer rainy season airmass.
1017. vdb0422
Received about 1.5 inches in the hour
Quoting 1015. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I-95 @ Prince William Parkway




Yikes, that is some really heavy snow...
Pennsylvania Ave @ 8th St

Here is the snow moving in on Manhattan. You can see at the beginning of the loop where the midtown skyscraper clusters are. They produce a hole in the snow returns from the HD JFK airport radar.

I-395 @ Crystal City/Pentagon

1022. Gaara
Final entries. Let me know if I missed anyone. Good night, good luck, and be safe!

Astrometeor: Luray, VA - 21" (JM986, 1010ft)
BaltimoreBrian: Harrisburg, PA - 21" (JM974, 320ft)
Blizzard92: Northampton, MA - 25" (ZL212, 190ft)
Bluestorm5: Lewiston, ME - 25" (ZL180, 217ft)
danielb1023: Poughkeepsie, NY - 23" (ZL183, 230ft)
Flakmeister: Lincoln, ME - 17" (JM982, 220ft)
FlyingScotsman: Pittsfield, MA - 23" (JM991, 1039ft)
Gaara: Hamptonburgh, New York - 23" (N/A, 384ft)
GeorgiaStormz: Lincoln, ME - 24" (JM969, 220ft)
h2oskt: Danbury, CT - 25" (PC953, 397ft)
JazzChi: West Chester, PA - 18" (JM804, 446ft)
jerseycityjoan: Paterson, NJ - 24" (ZL233, 112ft)
Keeperofthegate: Pittsfield, MA - 27" (JM783, 1039ft)
ListenerVT: Putney, VT - 22.5" (ZL213, 404ft)
NYBizBee: Allentown, PA - 18" (PC959, 440ft)
PattyNorthShoreLI: Hagerstown, MD - 22" (ZL198, 538ft)
OriginalLT: Newburgh, NY - 22" (PC952, 423ft)
Seattleite: Hagerstown, MD - 19" (JM978, 538ft)
skook: Reading, PA - No total (JM967, 305ft)
TheF1Man: Westfield, MA - 24" (ZL215, 148ft)
TheRasberryPatch: Chester, NY - 20" (ZL181, 572ft)
TropicalAnalystwx13: Brattleboro, VT - 17" (JM782, 633ft)
vdb0422: Amherst, MA - 28" (ZL182, 295ft)
Rain/snow line has penetrated NJ shore towns...crap not yet!

Quoting 1023. wxgeek723:
Rain/snow line has penetrated NJ shore towns...crap not yet!



Not yet at the Atlantic City airport.
1025. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
What do you think about the snow in NE Alabama tropicalanalyst13? How much do you think is falling there?


My feed from the Alabama EMA shows light snow in Huntsville and Birmingham, with some light snow starting to show up in Alabaster and Montgomery. There is moderate snow in far NE AL, with Scottsboro and Ft. Payne both reporting moderate snow. It looks like the light snow areas are getting about .10-.25" per hour and the moderate snow area is about .25" to .40" per hour. The wraparound moisture is starting to set off snow showers from Montgomery east to the state line. A few snow flurries should get to me in the next 45 minutes or so.
Charlotte: 4.5 inches of snow. Several hours of sleet. Now steady freezing rain.
What should I expect the rest of the storm? Changeover back to snow or sleet, or continued freezing rain and possible power outages?
1027. sar2401
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Charlotte: 4.5 inches of snow. Several hours of sleet. Now steady freezing rain.
What should I expect the rest of the storm? Changeover back to snow or sleet, or continued freezing rain and possible power outages?

Freezing rain. Then just cloudy. Then more freezing rain and sleet, turning to snow about 6:00 am. Then more sleet and freezing rain from about 9:00 am until about noon, then mostly snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixed. It should all finally end about 9:00 pm. It looks like a real mess in Charlotte.
Quoting 1023. wxgeek723:
Rain/snow line has penetrated NJ shore towns...crap not yet!



its moved further in along the coast the last few frames

Quoting 1024. BaltimoreBrian:


Not yet at the Atlantic City airport.


Should be close. AC Airport is actually 7 miles inland.



No chance of flakes in north FL :(
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

Freezing rain. Then just cloudy. Then more freezing rain and sleet, turning to snow about 6:00 am. Then more sleet and freezing rain from about 9:00 am until about noon, then mostly snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixed. It should all finally end about 9:00 pm. It looks like a real mess in Charlotte.


Pouring down freezing rain right now with temps in the mid 20s. Was expecting more snow/sleet and less freezing rain. Really hoping we don't lose power for an extended period of time, but becoming nervous that it may happen
along jersey coast ne atlantic city

MM 053.5 New Gretna Toll Plaza (Bass River Twp)

Quoting 1032. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
along jersey coast ne atlantic city

MM 053.5 New Gretna Toll Plaza (Bass River Twp)



Also nudged inland a bit. But soon, very soon. Check out flake size.
1034. sar2401
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Pouring down freezing rain right now with temps in the mid 20s. Was expecting more snow/sleet and less freezing rain. Really hoping we don't lose power for an extended period of time, but becoming nervous that it may happen

Unfortunately, there's a better than even chance you might, since it looks like the freezing rain will continue for another four hours at least. There's a warm layer at about 7,000 feet right over you, so the colder surface temperatures just produce freezing rain and ice buildup. The warm layer should fill in about 6:00-7:00 this morning your time, and then it should change to snow. If it's any consolation, we had 10 hours of that in the last storm with about .50" of ice and the power outages were less than I feared they might have been.
Quoting 1032. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
along jersey coast ne atlantic city

MM 053.5 New Gretna Toll Plaza (Bass River Twp)




Also nudged inland a bit. But soon, very soon. Check out flake size.


big fat wet flakes are always the first clue to the change over
1036. NatsFan
It is raining snow here in Springfield VA, just south of DC. I don't know how else to describe it--it is coming down in unbelievable amounts right now. We have gotten two inches in the last hour. Still coming down like that.
The W side of the storm seems to be drying up. It looks like our snowfall in the upper foothills of NC are about to come to an end. So far we have about 8 inches of mainly all snow.
1038. ncstorm
Using my phone limited in able to blog..

over 25000 people without power in Wilmington, NC..highest county of power outages in NC for Duke Energy and thats including Wake County (Raleigh) .I know Raleigh and Charlotte are bigger cities and had ample warning but Wilmington is in its own little world down here along with Brunswick County who is in the same boat as we are ..we were not even under a winter storm warning until tuesday as the NWS didnt seem to think we wouldn't see any significant impacts..no planning from our local government as people were stuck on bridges on Tuesday well after 9pm when leaving work even after the winter storm warning was announced..I'm still without power myself and have several large pieces of trees in my yard along with some minor damage... Civil emergency was declared here last night..Two shelters were finally open at 8:30 last night in NH County after complaints from residents..more will be open today..we are without limited police resources due to the 911 service because of power outages..they are expecting more power outages today due to the high winds that will pick up and knock over more trees already weak with the ice..I called Duke Energy to record my power outage and got an automated message saying to expect my power back on Saturday :(..I really hope it doesn't come to that..fingers crossed..

I have to limit my time in blogging due to my phone battery but everyone stay safe and WARM..



Ah... here is the second round of rain... no pyrotechnics this time, but the rain rate is pretty high and there is considerably more wind...

@ ncstorm.... stay warm and safe. Hope u don't have too much more damage AND u get power tomorrow....
1041. LargoFl
Good Morning!...............
1042. LargoFl
tornado was sighted around 6 p.m. in the Fort Meade area of southern Polk County.

Storm damage was confirmed in the following areas:
Pinecone Court in Fort Meade - roof blown off of porch

Powerline Road in Haines City - damage to three mobile homes

Tate Road and West Easy Street in Bartow - 2 houses with roof damage.

17 mobile homes damaged at the Davenport RV park in Haines City - several are uninhabitable with mostly roof damage

A tornado warning was issued for eastern Manatee County. That warning expired at 5:48 p.m.
1043. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
311 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

MDZ003>007-009>011-VAZ028-030-031-042-052-053-055 -501-502-
WVZ051>053-131615-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140214T1000Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER. ..FRONT ROYAL...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...WARRENTON...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
311 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH UP TO 15 INCHES AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 800 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. HEAVY WET SNOW COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY
TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

Another night of rain/sleet mixed showers washed away yesterday's quickie accumulations, only for a massive sleet/hail shower to slam the place in the last hour. I've not seen anything like it, an easy covering with fast-melting ice pellets and as my window faces the wind, a good 6 inches of ice compressed against the bottom. And once again, chaos on the roads. The rain/snow line has been violently lurching up and down elevation all week. The ski centres will be buried in snow by the weekend.
1045. LargoFl
stay safe out there.....................
Very heavy bands coming through. Snow almost about to block the doorway!
1047. barbamz
Good morning from rainy und probably stormy Germany today. Interesting weather all over our part of the Northern Hemisphere! Hope everyone who lost power will get it back soon.

Storm affecting US east coast as havoc persists in South
BBC News, 13 February 2014 Last updated at 09:52 GMT
A huge winter storm is affecting the densely populated US north-east, after wreaking havoc in the South.
Across the typically mild South, more than half a million homes and businesses lack power, and thousands of flights have been cancelled.
The mammoth storm has affected people in about 22 states from Texas to Maine and caused at least 12 deaths.
The most crowded swathe of the US - between Washington DC and Boston - is braced for up to 8in (20cm) of snow. ...


UK storms: Homes left without power and travel disrupted
BBC News, 13 February 2014 Last updated at 10:08 GMT
Tens of thousands of homes are without power and commuters are facing renewed travel disruption after hurricane-force winds battered the UK on Wednesday.
Forecasters are predicting some respite on Thursday from stormy weather but the Met Office is warning of further heavy rain and strong winds on Friday. ...




------------------------

Warnings for high winds for southwestern Germany because of stormy secondary depression of "Tini":
i wonder if we will have another very active hurricane season again
temp moving up fast in new York city 32F AND BOSTON is 30F THE RAIN AND SNOW LINE moving up fast!! I tell you people last nignt more rain on the coast from new York city to boston.. I see temp in the mid 40S in the water and west winds coming off the water will in soon for the coast rain and move 50 miles inland to
Warm weather coming soon.
Woke up for a look around. 10". Snowing very hard with no sleet yet although it may be coming soon. I am right below the i in Baltimore. Going back to sleep.

1053. barbamz
Interesting, the current jet stream story including the famous "polar vortex" over the US starts in Indonesia, a new BBC weather video claims:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's chilly 27 degrees but luckily the wind chill is only 26 degrees. I will definitely need to warm up the car to defrost the windows before I try to leave for school this morning. Not sure what I'll test the kids on for grades today after two days out and no teaching...

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 1051. Climate175:
Warm weather coming soon.


That map doesn't agree with all the local forecasts I'm seeing for the area.
Baltimore is expected to be in the 30s on Saturday based on Wunderground, NWS, and Intellicast?

Oh I now see, that's for next Saturday on the 19th.


Sleet banging on the windows. Back to bed ;) Sleet is insanely heavy.
its snowing over here in new haven
new picture of the snow storm from new haven.
1059. pottery
The weather here today is Perfect.

The weather everywhere else seems a little Nasty.

Oh well, stay safe there !
9" here so far in Southern York County, PA
Turnpike Restricts Speed and Expands Trailer Ban Due to Winter Weather
Motorists urged to use extreme caution, travel only if necessary.

The Pa. Turnpike Commission (PTC) added a speed-limit restriction of 45 mph for all drivers traveling between Blue Mountain Tunnel (milepost #200) and the Delaware River Bridge (Exit #359) as well as the entire Northeastern Extension from Mid County Interchange (Exit #20) to Clarks Summit (Exit #131).

The PTC also expanded its temporary trailer ban to include non-commercial or recreational trailers being pulled by passenger vehicles, including utility or cargo trailers, horse and other livestock trailers and trailers for boats, snowmobiles and other recreational vehicles. This restriction is in addition to the temporary ban on empty and double tractor-trailers traveling between Breezewood Interchange (Exit #161) and the Delaware River Bridge as well as the entire Northeastern Extension.
I have 13 inches.Those heavy bands set up nicely over D.C.
All rain in southern MD except for an inch before midnight. I need to relocate.

I felt like a kid on Christmas morning with no gifts under the tree, but I could here the kids next door having a blast. :)
Quoting 1064. PressureDrop:
All rain in southern MD except for an inch before midnight. I need to relocate.

I felt like a kid on Christmas morning with no gifts under the tree, but I could here the kids next door having a blast. :)
Some places in D.C have under 12 inches like American University with 11 and some places just over 12 like here at my house.My neighbor also recorded 13 inches.N.R.A almost has 7 inches.
1066. 1Zach1
Hard to get too accurate of a measurement here in Fairfax Va due to blowing snow, but it looks to average out at about 12"
Quoting 1065. washingtonian115:
Some places in D.C have under 12 inches like American University with 11 and some places just over 12 like here at my house.My neighbor also recorded 13 inches.N.R.A almost has 7 inches.
I have 9" in College Park. Fairly wet snow and it's mixed now. Heavy shoveling to get my wife out to dr appt. My work is closed. Apparently I got some good bands overnght. It's up to the bellies of my grown labs in many places and they're jumping to get through but it's 9" on the level. Streets are plowed and modestly icy but passable.
1068. LargoFl
WOW LOOK AT FRIDAY MORNING............
1069. LargoFl
Winter Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY...

CTZ005>007-131630-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
322 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN
MIDDLESEX.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO
COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
Quoting 1038. ncstorm:
Using my phone limited in able to blog..

over 25000 people without power in Wilmington, NC..highest county of power outages in NC for Duke Energy and thats including Wake County (Raleigh) .I know Raleigh and Charlotte are bigger cities and had ample warning but Wilmington is in its own little world down here along with Brunswick County who is in the same boat as we are ..we were not even under a winter storm warning until tuesday as the NWS didnt seem to think we wouldn't see any significant impacts..no planning from our local government as people were stuck on bridges on Tuesday well after 9pm when leaving work even after the winter storm warning was announced..I'm still without power myself and have several large pieces of trees in my yard along with some minor damage... Civil emergency was declared here last night..Two shelters were finally open at 8:30 last night in NH County after complaints from residents..more will be open today..we are without limited police resources due to the 911 service because of power outages..they are expecting more power outages today due to the high winds that will pick up and knock over more trees already weak with the ice..I called Duke Energy to record my power outage and got an automated message saying to expect my power back on Saturday :(..I really hope it doesn't come to that..fingers crossed..

I have to limit my time in blogging due to my phone battery but everyone stay safe and WARM..





Cell phones can be charged from car adapters. Power draw is negligible so you won't run the car battery down. I also have external batteries for them. My own stupidphone (smarts in phone plus smarts in graycells = constant) lasts for days but the kids' smartphones need daily to twice daily charging. I also have inverters to run other low power things such as laptops at home. But I lose Internet when I lose power and am not willing to spring for a jetpack for my phones. As I've said (gloated) before I have a woodstove and so have heat.

After a recent power outage, in July with inverters, alternate power packs and car batteries supplying various appliences the daughter said.

Daddy can we have AC I'm hot.

Had to smile and say

" Well hey what do you think I am, a miracle man!!?)"
1071. LargoFl
$$

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY...

NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-131630-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1100Z/
HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
322 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...HUDSON...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...BRONX...NEW YORK...
RICHMOND...KINGS...NORTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN QUEENS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND
RAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING BACK
TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO
COLLAPSE AND TREE BRANCHES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

Quoting 1066. 1Zach1:
Hard to get too accurate of a measurement here in Fairfax Va due to blowing snow, but it looks to average out at about 12"
This is the most we've had since 2010.we're gonna get more snow this afternoon with heavy bands setting up shop.
Quoting 1067. georgevandenberghe:
I'm ready for this storm to get out of here.It'll be with us until Friday morning (12:00am).
So has the impressive performance of the Pineapple Express over the Sierras in the last 10 days saved San Francisco from extreme drought in their water supply this spring?
Is 32" of snow pack instead of bare rock enough to give them REAL trickle down, and enough to last?
1074. LargoFl
Quoting 1067. georgevandenberghe:


About to get dry slotted in DC. The rest will be backlash late PM and tonight (which often promises but rarely delivers). NW burbs are in a band and will get more before the dry slot reaches them.
Does anyone on here have a hybrid electric car and use it as a backup power supply for the house? I read that they can power a neighborhood.
Quoting 1075. georgevandenberghe:


About to get dry slotted in DC. The rest will be backlash late PM and tonight (which often promises but rarely delivers). NW burbs are in a band and will get more before the dry slot reaches them.
I will take advantage of the dry slot before the snow or mix begins again.
1078. LargoFl
Quoting 1076. biff4ugo:
Does anyone on here have a hybrid electric car and use it as a backup power supply for the house? I read that they can power a neighborhood.
I have one,there IS a 120 volt outlet in the car..never used it though,car isnt fully electric,if i used the outlet i'd have to keep the car running i guess..
1079. JNTenne
Quoting 1076. biff4ugo:
Does anyone on here have a hybrid electric car and use it as a backup power supply for the house? I read that they can power a neighborhood.
hmmmmm... I would think a generator would be a bit more efficient.. and cost a bit less!
Quoting 1063. washingtonian115:
I have 13 inches.Those heavy bands set up nicely over D.C.
12.5-13 inches at my house. This storm has offically overperformed for us. This morning I saw the heaviest snowfall rates that I've ever seen in my life. About 3 inches per hour. I am very surprised that I did not experience any thundersnow.
1081. LargoFl
Quoting 1079. JNTenne:
hmmmmm... I would think a generator would be a bit more efficient.. and cost a bit less!
indeed..a generator is a must have, i still have yet to buy one..guess i'll regret Not buying one some day.
1082. JNTenne
Quoting 1059. pottery:
The weather here today is Perfect.

The weather everywhere else seems a little Nasty.

Oh well, stay safe there !
snowbirds got it right this year!
1083. hydrus
1084. LargoFl
Winter Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL AFFECTING MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...

.VERY DANGEROUS WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS... AND
RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY HOME.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-131900-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140213T2300Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON- RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...T RINITY
432 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE TRIAD AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL REDEVELOP BY 10 AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS....TAPERING OFF AROUND
SUNSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES...ALONG ICE ACCRUAL EARLY THIS MORNING OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL SEVERELY
DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN PROPERTY DAMAGE
AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. IF YOU PLAN TO USE ANY ALTERNATIVE
HEATING SOURCE...BE SURE TO DO IT SAFELY AND FOLLOW MANUFACTURERS
INSTRUCTIONS.

$$
1085. hydrus
Quoting 1076. biff4ugo:
Does anyone on here have a hybrid electric car and use it as a backup power supply for the house? I read that they can power a neighborhood.
I did hear you can run a couple of 110 volt units from them.
1086. Walshy
Heavy snow band starting to setup overhead this morning here in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. Blowing snow advisories possible later.

The sleet did not last long. 14" and heavy wet snow falling. A big boom as they say on Capital Weather Gang. I'm gonna work out and then read and relax. Pimlico racetrack 6 miles 10 my NW reported 15" an hour and a half ago.
Quoting 1073. biff4ugo:
So has the impressive performance of the Pineapple Express over the Sierras in the last 10 days saved San Francisco from extreme drought in their water supply this spring?
Is 32" of snow pack instead of bare rock enough to give them REAL trickle down, and enough to last?


not saved quite yet...
definitely 12+ in NE Baltimore City.

It keeps going from sleet to snow to sleet again.

Snowing now though.
12 inches 100 milies north and west of DC and no sign of stopping. So much for 6 inches! Anyone who has watched weather in in this area knew what was coming...it's the right time of year, the storm coming from the east, the severe storms in FL.... but we still tried to live in denial until this morning :))))

I have a confession to make. We sold our house last fall, and ordered a new energy-efficient modular. First delivery date was January 20, delayed due to 10 inches of snow. Second date was last week, delayed due to an ice storm. Third date was today.


I will let you all know when the next big storm will hit, since apparently they are following my new home around.
sh...don't tell anyone but I think Comcast just won the monopoly game...but how can you lose when you put hotels on Baltic & Mediterranean?
Quoting 1068. LargoFl:
WOW LOOK AT FRIDAY MORNING............


Okay, so....STOP.....I am soooooo done with winter!
1093. ncstorm
Quoting 1070. georgevandenberghe:


Cell phones can be charged from car adapters. Power draw is negligible so you won't run the car battery down. I also have external batteries for them. My own stupidphone (smarts in phone plus smarts in graycells = constant) lasts for days but the kids' smartphones need daily to twice daily charging. I also have inverters to run other low power things such as laptops at home. But I lose Internet when I lose power and am not willing to spring for a jetpack for my phones. As I've said (gloated) before I have a woodstove and so have heat.

After a recent power outage, in July with inverters, alternate power packs and car batteries supplying various appliences the daughter said.

Daddy can we have AC I'm hot.

Had to smile and say

" Well hey what do you think I am, a miracle man!!?)"


I have a car charger but my phone uses more battery when I'm on the internet and I'm trying to avoid heading out to my car to charge my battery as much as possible which is why I said limited blogging time..

still no power yet..
I am sooooo done....from Babylon NY, south shore of Long Island. Made it to work, passed my DOT guys on the road, they can't keep up with it!

817 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK
CITY...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 10 AM.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE
ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA.

Thundersnow too? roflmao


Quoting 1090. goosegirl1:
12 inches 100 milies north and west of DC and no sign of stopping. So much for 6 inches! Anyone who has watched weather in in this area knew what was coming...it's the right time of year, the storm coming from the east, the severe storms in FL.... but we still tried to live in denial until this morning :))))

I have a confession to make. We sold our house last fall, and ordered a new energy-efficient modular. First delivery date was January 20, delayed due to 10 inches of snow. Second date was last week, delayed due to an ice storm. Third date was today.


I will let you all know when the next big storm will hit, since apparently they are following my new home around.


Along the blue ridge may well miss the dry slot and it's also going to slow down as it approaches S PA. But it's through the immediate DC metro area. I'm getting light rain now
We'll see about the backlash tonight. I was hoping for street clearing and kids back in school tomorrow.
Good Morning.  The Wife is stuck in New Haven and her flights back to Florida (for today) were cancelled; we are now looking at a Sunday return and multiply that by thousands of travelers.  Started to snow in New Haven this am per her report an hour ago and not many cars on the street.

However, heard a funny comment in the office this morning.  One of the old timers who grew up  in upstate New York is tired of the sensationalism on the Weather Channel and the perpetual "catastrophic" comments and naming of the storms.

He said when I was growing up, this just used to be called "Winter"......... :) 
1097. barbamz
Webcam Grafenmatt/Feldberg/Black Forest/Southwestern Germany right now; not a pretty day for skiing ;-) Yesss, Germany is getting some snow too from Tini's secondary stormy low. Decent precipitation, even in my place further north (rain of course).


Saved image. Source.

Quoting 1080. Tornado6042008X:
12.5-13 inches at my house. This storm has offically overperformed for us. This morning I saw the heaviest snowfall rates that I've ever seen in my life. About 3 inches per hour. I am very surprised that I did not experience any thundersnow.


Same here. Last night I was watching the hi-res NAM model and it was consistently showing 12"+ for my area. I was estimating that when everything was finally over, it'd probably be around 14"-16". Seems like right now it's about 12" or 13" (measured in a couple of places) with a couple more inches by the end of the day. A secondary heavy band is supposed to form later this afternoon but it looks like it may pass too far south to affect my area.

Perfect snow for building snowmen. Also a good 3-4 hour workout as I usually shovel out my entire cul-de-sac. :)
We got a little mroe snow!!!


final total .2" ice 1" sleet 2.5"snow



it's amazing out there
Quoting 1086. Walshy:
Heavy snow band starting to setup overhead this morning here in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. Blowing snow advisories possible later.




Some snow lovers have a ruler that starts at 6" for this purpose.
The revised California drought map is out. Some good changes, obviously, though all in the northern part of the state. The overall percentage of the state in drought conditions didn't change; neither did the percentage listed as 'exceptional'. However, thanks to last week's precipitation, the area in extreme drought dropped from 67% to 60%. Not a huge help, perhaps, but certainly a (small) step in the right direction.

drought

drought
heavy snow here in east haven
This is a beautiful 200 frame radar animation showing the storm in the Baltimore/DC region from the first flake until now. Snow is red, and sleet is yellow. Very heavy sleet is green. Areas SE of the discontinuous sleet areas are also red, but represent rain.
1104. hydrus
Quoting 1094. longislander102:
I am sooooo done....from Babylon NY, south shore of Long Island. Made it to work, passed my DOT guys on the road, they can't keep up with it!

817 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK
CITY...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 10 AM.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE
ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA.

Thundersnow too? roflmao


I like your avatar..:)
1105. etxwx
We are finally going to have some warm and sunny weather here in East Texas and this new little addition will be enjoying it. Hang in there ice and snowbound folks...spring will come! In the meantime, stay safe and warm.
I am dancing in the snow right now!!
Quoting 1105. etxwx:
We are finally going to have some warm and sunny weather here in East Texas and this new little addition will be enjoying it. Hang in there ice and snowbound folks...spring will come! In the meantime, stay safe and warm.
Maybe not spring, but closer to it than what we have now:

cpc

Enjoy the snow, ye lovers of it, for by this time next week it will be but a few scattered puddles of dirty slush...
1109. hydrus
The Euro is on board with the GFS. This will likely be a significant severe weather event.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT...AND LIKELY ILL-TIMED...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. LATEST
ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST BROADER PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MEANINGFUL GULF MOISTURE TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF SEVERE TSTMS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE IT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY WITH LATTER TROUGH AS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GREATER MID-LATE WEEK. EVEN SO...PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 02/13/2014
1110. ricderr
The revised California drought map is out. Some good changes, obviously, though all in the northern part of the state. The overall percentage of the state in drought conditions didn't change; neither did the percentage listed as 'exceptional'. However, thanks to last week's precipitation, the area in extreme drought dropped from 67% to 60%. Not a huge help, perhaps, but certainly a (small) step in the right direction.

Nea....the northern sierra's which is the primary supplier of water for the state is due for rain sat and sunday with a chance of snow.....and then tues through thursday another significant snow event......one more coffee cup in their 5 gallon bucket
1111. barbamz
For all who are annoyed by any wintry, stormy and rainy weather, watch this beautiful new slide-show video Glorious greenery - winning garden images on BBC. It will light up your mood for sure!


Click the picture to go there.
1112. ricderr
We are finally going to have some warm and sunny weather here in East Texas and this new little addition will be enjoying it. Hang in there ice and snowbound folks...spring will come! In the meantime, stay safe and warm.



on the other side of the state we're expecting 80's this weekend with an early spring expected.....my grass is already starting to green up
1113. MsZola
Quite a bit more snow than originally predicted here in WV, although we have no complaints, as NWS was warning from the beginning that we should watch the system closely as a small jog in the track could make a big difference in what we got.

The best part? It's going to get up to 45 on Monday. Bye bye snow!
Quoting 1109. hydrus:
The Euro is on board with the GFS. This will likely be a significant severe weather event.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT...AND LIKELY ILL-TIMED...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. LATEST
ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST BROADER PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MEANINGFUL GULF MOISTURE TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF SEVERE TSTMS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE IT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY WITH LATTER TROUGH AS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
GREATER MID-LATE WEEK. EVEN SO...PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A 30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 02/13/2014



yeah euro BOMBS the surface low in the high plains

GFS is trending further south with the first trough







hoping it trends more south
1115. Patrap


1116. hydrus
If this were to acquire a negative tilt, tornadoes would be a near certainty.
1117. JRRP
1118. ricderr
1120. hydrus
This looks bad..
1121. hydrus
Shear would be very conducive for tornadoes and super cells.
Quoting 1120. hydrus:
This looks bad..
lots of wether next week with snow early then the warmup then rain maybe t storms then cool down

gonna be a roller coaster ride next week

1123. ricderr
Shear would be very conducive for tornadoes and super cells.



shear?.......is it hurricane season already? :-)
Greg Carbin generated this map in response to an email




helps explain the higher tornado totals in al than in ga.
1125. ricderr
lots of wether next week with snow early then the warmup then rain maybe t storms then cool down

gonna be a roller coaster ride next week




well...getting closer to that wonderful march saying that we'll hear over and over...in like a lion out like a lamb
Quoting 1117. JRRP:


then we'd better get more snow next winter.
I have taken some more measurements.The highest was 15 inches that I've found in my yard.Light drizzle now.But the back side or the wrap around is gonna give us more snow.


i should say winds are picking up as well.It literally knocked the breath out of me.
friends are rubbing it in there is going to be some giant sledding parties this afternoon.
Mixture of rain with some sleet mixed in Babylon, NY, on south shore of Long Island now.
barb
Quoting 1117. JRRP:


Looking more and more that El-Nino is on it's way especially now that the PDO is positive for the first time in months.

Quoting 1129. longislander102:
Mixture of rain with some sleet mixed in Babylon, NY, on south shore of Long Island now.
barb


Quite a few trees down by me from yesterday and I picked up dime size hail for about 3 minutes.





Here is some hail on the ground from Kissimmee
This is a look at the storm just before it hit.

1135. VR46L
Quoting 1116. hydrus:
If this were to acquire a negative tilt, tornadoes would be a near certainty.


I was looking at it with regards to monday for MS and TN yesterday :) but the SPC are more interested for later in the week
Quoting 1127. washingtonian115:
I have taken some more measurements.The highest was 15 inches that I've found in my yard.Light drizzle now.But the back side or the wrap around is gonna give us more snow.


i should say winds are picking up as well.It literally knocked the breath out of me.



must be beautiful.. you were overdue, it just came the wrong week
1137. LargoFl
well after today a warm up IS coming Florida.....
heavy snow in n al, clearing clouds in ga, and the snow there too

1139. Michfan
Quoting 1134. StormTrackerScott:
This is a look at the storm just before it hit.



Yeah we got nailed pretty good here in Waterford but thankfully not many trees down or loss of power for us.
1140. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF
BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WIND: WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THERE MAY BE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WAVES: SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS,
WITH SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
NEAR 8 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
Quoting 1116. hydrus:
If this were to acquire a negative tilt, tornadoes would be a near certainty.


Shh! Spring will be here soon enough! Hopefully the pattern will change. Otherwise things could be interesting, again, this year in Central OK.

Hope all are doing well and are safe.
SUBJECT: PRODUCT OUTAGE/ANOMALY: GOES-13 FAILOVER : ISSUED

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 13, 2014 1422 UTC
*
DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *TBD****

*LENGTH OF OUTAGE:*TBD

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *ESPC STOPPED RECEIVING THE GOES-13
IMAGES
DUE THE GVAR ANTENNA SIGNAL STRENGTH DEGRADING AND NECESSITATED A FAIL
OVER. THE GINI EAST AND WEST WERE FAILED OVER TO THE WALLOPS CIP, WE
ARE NOT RECEIVING THE GOES 13 IMAGE ON GOES AFEP, SPMON AND THE LRIT
STOP BROADCASTING THE GOES-13 IMAGES. THE ENGINEERING SUPPORT IS
ON THE
WAY IN TO RESET ANTENNAS.


Link
1143. bappit
Dr. M: "That thick layer of cold air above the surface is supercooling the rain as it falls though, allowing the rain to freeze at impact even if the surface temperatures are 33°."

Thank you! That happened just north of me earlier this winter. Wasn't sure how freezing rain happened with a temp of 33. Now I know!
Quoting 1135. VR46L:


I was looking at it with regards to monday for MS and TN yesterday :) but the SPC are more interested for later in the week


the latter gets a better push mid week is a double warm shot

1145. hydrus
Quoting 1132. StormTrackerScott:
Quite a few trees down by me from yesterday and I picked up dime size hail for about 3 minutes.





Here is some hail on the ground from Kissimmee
I said yesterday that wind damage was a good possibility. There was a decent bow structure with that squall line.


Our wonderful weather is coming to an abrupt end. Wish I could turn the clock back to November all over again....
1147. Dakster
Quoting 1142. nrtiwlnvragn:
SUBJECT: PRODUCT OUTAGE/ANOMALY: GOES-13 FAILOVER : ISSUED

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 13, 2014 1422 UTC
*
DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *TBD****

*LENGTH OF OUTAGE:*TBD

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *ESPC STOPPED RECEIVING THE GOES-13
IMAGES
DUE THE GVAR ANTENNA SIGNAL STRENGTH DEGRADING AND NECESSITATED A FAIL
OVER. THE GINI EAST AND WEST WERE FAILED OVER TO THE WALLOPS CIP, WE
ARE NOT RECEIVING THE GOES 13 IMAGE ON GOES AFEP, SPMON AND THE LRIT
STOP BROADCASTING THE GOES-13 IMAGES. THE ENGINEERING SUPPORT IS
ON THE
WAY IN TO RESET ANTENNAS.


Link


Hopefully the antenna on GOES-13 itself doesn't need to manually be reset... That could get interesting and expensive.
1148. Patrap
They don't service GEO Sat's as they are way out in Geo Sync Orbit.


No one has been higher that 340 or so Miles, or the Hubble Orbit since the end of the Apollo Lunar Missions.

So..........,
I think the PDO going positive has resulted in the Mid-Atlantic seeing a more snowier winter and a more colder winter than anticipated.Looks like CWG's winter forecast in terms of snow is about to or has gone down the drain for D.C.Prior to the storm I recorded 22 inches for the winter.And now with 15 inches that I have just recorded that puts my seasonal total to 37 inches.If the airport picks up 8 inches that would put the seasonal total to 17 inches for R.N.S (they need to find some where else to measure seriously).

The positive PDO could result in a stronger Bermuda/Azores high making storms take southern routes (I have yet to prove this but prior to 2010 storms had no problem tracking through the caribbean and getting in the northern gulf).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1149. washingtonian115:
I think the PDO going positive has resulted in the Mid-Atlantic seeing a more snowier winter and a more colder winter than anticipated.Looks like CWG's winter forecast in terms of snow is about to or has gone down the drain for D.C.Prior to the storm I recorded 22 inches for the winter.And now with 15 inches that I have just recorded that puts my seasonal total to 37 inches.If the airport picks up 8 inches that would put the seasonal total to 17 inches for R.N.S (they need to find some where else to measure seriously).

The positive PDO could result in a stronger Bermuda/Azores high making storms take southern routes (I have yet to prove this but prior to 2010 storms had no problem tracking through the caribbean and getting in the northern gulf).


Exactly and that is what I was calling for back in early November. There was no way the US was going to have above average temps and below average precip based on the pattern that was setting in. Great post!
I measured about 15 inches at my house. More snow is gonna be here from 4pm-9pm.