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Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.


Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link

Irene became a hurricane at the 7th advisory which is a 5 AM, why don't I see the red for hurricane force?

Irene advisory 9B just released

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

OVER 7500 POSTS...record!
7502. MahFL
Quoting Tampa77:
How far do tropical storm winds extend from the center on the west side of the storm? I would think that even if South FL didn't get a direct hit, they could get tropical force winds and rain. It is still reason to prepare.


Right now, roughly 60 miles to the sw side. The info is in the forcast advisory. In 3 days time forcast to be 75 miles.
7503. ncstorm
H.Irene's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 21August_12pmGMT and ending 22August_12pmGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 14.5mph(23.2k/h) on a heading of 303.9degrees*(NW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage over HawkesNestSalina,GrandTurk ~21hours from now

Copy&paste 16.8n62.4w-17.5n63.7w, 17.5n63.7w-17.9n65.0w, 17.9n65.0w-18.2n65.9w, 18.2n65.9w-18.9n67.0w, gdt, 18.2n65.9w-21.426n71.138w, iga into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 22August_6amGMT)

* 303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW
7505. hotrods
Looks like CMC track is moving back west a tad.
7506. NJ2S
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Irene
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Irene
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







I know that Florida to north Carolina should be our next focus of concern for the US.... What about points north some of the models on right side of the cone don't look good for the midatlantic especially VA to Long island ? Any thought or forecasts for us in the north?
7507. Michale
Quoting yesterway:


That's Cat 2 arrival your location...


Ahhhh OK... That makes sense..

Thanx...
Quoting lennit:
hmm ok here is my little tidbit.. i have looked back as far as i can and have not found on system in aug or sept. that is where Irene is at now moving in that direction that suddenly turn N and went thru the Bahamas ..all have been gradual bends and either hit Fl or was right along the coast

Good morning,
I believe that Hugo (1989) went through P.R. - skirted east of Bahamas then on to S/E coast (Charleston)
Quoting AllStar17:
This track appears to be shot:



why?
Looks like we had a brief eye scene there in the night.

2011AUG22 051500 3.6 992.6/ +0.0 / 57.0 3.6 3.9 4.2 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -65.36 -65.76 UNIFRM N/A 18.08 66.08 FCST
2011AUG22 054500 3.7 991.2/ +0.0 / 59.0 3.7 4.0 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -58.56 -63.30 UNIFRM N/A 18.12 66.21 FCST
2011AUG22 061500 3.8 989.8/ +0.0 / 61.0 3.8 4.0 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -19.76 -64.26 EYE 24 IR 18.51 66.07 COMBO
2011AUG22 064500 3.8 989.9/ +0.1 / 61.0 3.8 4.1 5.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -12.06 -62.69 EYE 26 IR 18.55 66.30 COMBO
2011AUG22 071500 3.9 988.7/ +0.3 / 63.0 3.9 4.1 5.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -11.76 -60.28 EYE 29 IR 18.59 66.53 COMBO
2011AUG22 074500 3.9 988.9/ +0.4 / 63.0 3.8 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -21.86 -54.41 EMBC N/A 18.28 66.70 FCST
2011AUG22 081500 3.9 988.9/ +0.5 / 63.0 3.7 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -52.66 -55.97 UNIFRM N/A 19.27 66.77 SPRL
2011AUG22 084500 3.9 989.0/ +0.6 / 63.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -48.36 -56.06 UNIFRM N/A 19.21 66.89 SPRL
2011AUG22 091500 3.9 989.2/ +0.8 / 63.0 3.6 4.0 4.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -72.36 -65.20 UNIFRM N/A 18.76 66.40 SPRL
2011AUG22 094500 3.9 989.4/ +0.9 / 63.0 3.6 4.1 4.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -70.96 -66.64 UNIFRM N/A 18.89 66.50 SPRL
2011AUG22 101500 3.9 989.5/ +1.1 / 63.0 3.6 4.1 4.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -70.56 -67.42 UNIFRM N/A 18.91 66.60 SPRL
2011AUG22 104500 3.9 989.7/ +1.2 / 63.0 3.6 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -66.26 -65.48 UNIFRM N/A 18.74 66.70 SPRL
2011AUG22 111500 3.9 989.7/ +1.3 / 63.0 3.7 4.1 4.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -66.66 -64.92 UNIFRM N/A 18.97 66.91 SPRL
2011AUG22 121500 4.0 988.6/ +1.6 / 65.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -55.16 -62.21 UNIFRM N/A 19.02 67.22 SPRL
Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene.

Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning-

By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall-

Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high.

By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing...

I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Gaining latitude, but moving at 265/270? You're contradicting yourself.


My bad, just misread the chart. Good find. I meant she would need to head at 280 degrees to graze Hispanolia, I think she's moving closer to 300 if anything, but the NHC has her at 295 which would still keep her well away from Hispanolia. My aplogizes for the goof.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:



why?


It will further have to be shifted north because of the current position.
Quoting yesterway:


What's all this about prepare. Put your shutters up, turn off the power and reserve a room out of town. When it's all over meet your insurance agent back at your home to access the damage (if any). Resume your life. Simple!

there are millions of people with out insurance( tenants)
7515. snotly
pressure up and winds up? weird.
The only "not so bad" news for us in TCI is that so far we only are forecast to have Tropical Storm force winds. I'm out soon to get gas for my generator, looks like a busy day today.
7517. Michale
I remember in '99, Floyd followed the FL East Coast track, but then veered further eastward around the Space Coast...

Irene could do the same, no?

7518. nash28
Quoting AllStar17:


It will further have to be shifted north because of the current position.


Again....Don't expect any major shifts from the NHC. The models haven't made any major shifts in either direction. Not to mention the fact that the COC is not too far off the forecast points.
So Irene held her own and basically strengthened going over or just as she left Puerto Rico. Not sure how they are only predicting a Cat 2 at landfall, she seems ripe for some rapid intensification now that she is pulling away from Puerto Rico and probably will miss Hispaniola. Get ready, those waters are very warm!
7520. ackee
where IRENE centre is in the mona passage OR north of PR
Quoting aussiecold:


there are millions of people with out insurance( tenants)


The point here is not insurance it's how to deal with a dangerous storm coming to town.

...IRENE HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
9:00 AM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.0°N 67.2°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
all tenants should have insurance
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.


Jeanne's track

7525. Ryuujin
I called it heading N of Hispanola, so let's see if the trough isn't as strong as forecast and we have to deal with Irene headed more westward. Ugh. This almost looks like a certain CONUS hit.
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile. 25miles ESE of the eye.
Quoting connie1976:


I already look at all of that stuff.... I just like reading everyones opinions... ...and there are some people who post here that know what they are talking about....BUT i always listen to what the nhc has to say...


How do you know they know what they are talking about?
Quoting ILwthrfan:


My bad, just misread the chart. Good find. I meant she would need to head at 280 degrees to graze Hispanolia, I think she's moving closer to 300 if anything, but the NHC has her at 295 which would still keep her well away from Hispanolia. My aplogizes for the goof.


No problem, just made me wonder lol. I'm inclined to agree with you.
Quoting Michale:
I remember in '99, Floyd followed the FL East Coast track, but then veered further eastward around the Space Coast...

Irene could do the same, no?

got fuel?
7530. hotrods
Looks like the NHC and its counter parts--UKMET an GFDL are sticking to there guns at this point!
Quoting ackee:
where IRENE centre is in the mona passage OR north of PR

North
http://www.wect.com/story/15305962/irene-its-all-ab out-location This was posted by WECT here in Wilmington,NC this morning. WWAY has a similar story on their website. Our local news media is beginning to pay attention to this storm.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile.
rincon should be alittle calmer aussie
at this point in the evolution of a hurricane you can see wobbling, displacement and reappearance of the eyewall from time to time because the lower level low is aligning and stregthening with the mid and upper level lows.

I see a straight shot down the gulf stream at turks then into miami. no steering winds, no wind shear, no troughs to pull it, so it's gonna follow the trail of lava hot water because this is mother nature's way of cooling off the GOM.....

from now on out it is in nitrus-like fuel water. expect major development very rapidly. i dont even know if it will make eyewall landfall in d.r......
Quoting presslord:
all tenants should have insurance
Too late now! These insurance companies are savvvy!LOL
Quoting nash28:


Again....Don't expect any major shifts from the NHC. The models haven't made any major shifts in either direction. Not to mention the fact that the COC is not too far off the forecast points.


Yes....I meant only a SLIGHT shift due to current position.



000
WTNT34 KNHC 221302
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND AT
900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
7538. hulakai
the NW atlantic loop suggests a more easterly solution. not good for the folks in the bahamas. The next model run will probably nudge more east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-avn .html
Current SST map or TCHP?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico.


Looking a bit hostile.


Just wait until "El rabo de la tormenta", the tail with offshore winds, prepares Jobos for Epic surfing days...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Jeanne's track



I remember Jeanne. I didn't have power for several days. Wait... maybe that was Charley, or Frances? Heck, it was bad year.


000
WTNT24 KNHC 220906
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

ADDED 64-KT WIND RADII AT INITIAL TIME

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI
FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT.......130NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Further east x 2

Link

Link
Quoting ncstorm:


I hope so..

Go to WECT.com and look what pops up on their front page. Read it, and you'll see that the media is beginning to pay attention. I would also suggest looking at WWAY's tropical weather update on their Hurricanes 101 page. WRAL is also mentioning the storm. Elizabeth Gardner is quoted in the main story, she is a great meteorologist.
000
FONT14 KNHC 220859
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 4 4 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION 4 1 7 4 5 8 3
TROPICAL STORM 32 44 47 41 37 35 32
HURRICANE 64 55 43 51 53 50 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 59 46 35 36 36 32 32
HUR CAT 2 4 7 6 10 13 12 15
HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 6
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 21(44)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 8(55)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 5(51)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 37(57) 5(62)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 20(68) X(68)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 12(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 49(70) 3(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 29(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)

PUERTO PLATA 34 4 83(87) 4(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
PUERTO PLATA 50 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 23 40(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I have to say the last few satellite frames the motion looks much further to the W again, as opposed to the more NW movement overnight.
To all my friends in the Northeast, the Northeast Forecast.

Now is the time to get prepared with good weather expected this week!

Quoting overwash12:
Too late now! These insurance companies are savvvy!LOL


That is one unique name. "Overwash"...I like it.

Hurricane IRENE US Watch/ Warning

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning UPDATE Position Estimate

000
WTNT84 KNHC 221307
TCVAT4

IRENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

.HURRICANE IRENE

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-221500-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1009.110822T1300Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W

$$

VIZ001-002-221500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
Comparing model error for Irene so far.. CMC I'd say is leading, HWRF, GFDL, TVCN & European follow..

Average Position Error (in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr
AEMN 40.0 94.1 104.7 113.3 60.4
AVNO 39.4 114.0 99.0 106.3 79.0
BAMD - 113.9 185.5 236.2 234.3
BAMM - 106.4 144.9 106.4 148.6
BAMS - 109.2 128.6 76.2 212.8
CMC 40.7 39.8 - - -
EGRR 25.8 86.7 - - -
GFDL 15.8 80.8 - - -
GFDN 8.3 105.7 - - -
HWRF 10.2 76.1 134.5 162.5 -
LBAR 0 108.8 176.6 227.7 346.9
LGEM 0 104.6 136.3 106.4 148.6
NAM 20.4 149.1 - - -
NGPS 50.3 86.9 80.2 90.2 -
OFCL 0 77.9 - - -
TVCN 0 67.3 77.1 104.6 -
XTRP 0 134.6 267.1 435.2 637.7
Quoting Chucktown:
Further east x 2

Link

Link


Just the man I want to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
7553. JonClaw
Looking at the 9AM 5-day track, it looks as though Irene would have to make a jump southwest to pass through the NHC's next forecast point.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
000
FONT14 KNHC 220859
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 4 4 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION 4 1 7 4 5 8 3
TROPICAL STORM 32 44 47 41 37 35 32
HURRICANE 64 55 43 51 53 50 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 59 46 35 36 36 32 32
HUR CAT 2 4 7 6 10 13 12 15
HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 6
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39)
MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25(45)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 21(44)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 8(55)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 5(51)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 37(57) 5(62)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 20(68) X(68)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 12(68) X(68)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 49(70) 3(73) X(73)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 29(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69)
GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)

PUERTO PLATA 34 4 83(87) 4(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
PUERTO PLATA 50 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 23 40(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Can you give us the long version next time?
000
WTNT54 KNHC 221159
TCEAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
IRENE WAS ESTIMATED BY FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...18.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting yesterway:


The point here is not insurance it's how to deal with a dangerous storm coming to town.


but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!!
Quoting yesterway:


Can you give us the long version next time?
That IS the long version.
7558. MahFL
Quoting MahFL:


Right now, roughly 60 miles to the sw side. The info is in the forcast advisory. In 3 days time forcast to be 75 miles.


Now its changed to 3 days time 140 miles on the NW side.
In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish
7561. ncstorm
anxiously awaiting Dr. Masters discussion..always interesting to hear his point of view on the storms
She could be contracting her TS wind field a bit, explaining the slight rise in pressure. Radar also suggests she's trying to reconsolidate the eye wall.
Can someone explain to me why on all the computer models the GFDL and UKMET seems to stay so far West compared to the others? I saw this mornings GFDL and it just loves that Westerly track.
Quoting yesterway:


That is one unique name. "Overwash"...I like it.
I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks!
Quoting fldude99:
In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish
I wouldn't classify as a fish as it just made landfall in PR... There are people in PR right?

Are you that certain it will completely avoid land? Most of the models suggest some form an impact on the East Coast.
7566. RickWPB
Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop:

Link
Chucktown - thoughts on this for those of us in Chucktown?
7568. Buhdog
Stormchaser....excellent illustration on Jeanne and potential track changes when dealing with a a moving front! I wonder how big irene will get once she establishes a southern half?

Most crystal blue morning we have had in SWFL in a long time today.
Quoting RickWPB:
Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop:

Link


What does this mean in terms of track, if anything?
yea Chucktown...cough it up...
Quoting aussiecold:


but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!!

What is it you are having a problem with? Why would anyone want to sit in their home with no electricity in the dark in 90 degree heat with a hurricane passing over head. Go to a motel where you can relax, be safe and watch from the sidelines. Get my point?
Quoting naplesdreamer28:


What does this mean in terms of track, if anything?


That is the first shortwave, but that one will lift out. The next one is over Iowa.
Quoting overwash12:
I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks!


Hahahaha very interesting! I love it!
Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were.
7575. RickWPB
Quoting naplesdreamer28:


What does this mean in terms of track, if anything?

If the trough digs far enough south... and Irene is strong enough, should help turn it to the NW... then NNW and hopefully NNE or NE.

As been said before, it's a timing issue / strength of storm issue.
its a serious situation for florida...if IRENE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANOLA AND HAITI FLA COULD BE DEALING WITH A CAT 3 HURRICANE COME THURSDAY...EVERYONE IN FLA NEEDS TO START THERE PLAN OF ACTION NOW ...ITS ABOUT 96 HOURS BEFORE IRENE VISITS FLA AND KEEP IN MIND FLA WILL BE EXPERIENCING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY..IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH..RI IS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
7577. hydrus
Quoting BoroDad17:
I have to say the last few satellite frames the motion looks much further to the W again, as opposed to the more NW movement overnight.
Irene will wobble, jog and make odd movments when it is near land and in its formative stages. When she fine tunes the CDO, her track should smooth out..jmo
Quoting Jedkins01:
Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were.

Cheers my good man...
Quoting presslord:
all tenants should have insurance

press .,,,,you know that out there are living hundreds of thousands of people in mobil homes,and insurances co.s dont wnt to deal with
7580. lennit
after going back 100 yrs closes analog track both occured in 1928 , both hitting Florida .. i cannot find any other near Irene's location and movement
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene.

Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning-

By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall-

Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high.

By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing...

I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.


Thanks. This is the best post of the last 3 days. You can't ignore the GFDL. It smells something and won't let go of it.
I believe that with this storm timimg is everything. Since Irene did not suffer during land interaction, she did not loose any steam. Notice that her forward speed is relatively fast and has not slowed down much while crossing Puerto Rico. Her forward speed and lack of interaction with land may cause her to make that northerly turn further to the west than expected. I am not wishcasting but it would be foolish for us to think that South Florida is in the clear. There is a local guy on nbc channel 6 his name is John Morales who hinted this scenario last night and For right now I believe that this is a possibility. Again, it is too early to tell but all we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
She could be contracting her TS wind field a bit, explaining the slight rise in pressure. Radar also suggests she's trying to reconsolidate the eye wall.
Hi Cat5,where is Irene going? Your thoughts please!
Quoting Jedkins01:
Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were.


And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-)
timing is everything with every storm
Quoting MississippiWx:


And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-)


Ahh drying winds again. Where's my parasail?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene.

Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning-

By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall-

Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high.

By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing...

I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.
i remember this storm well... My apartment complex did not even have our electric back on from frances nd we had one v in the neighborhood that we had hooked up with a long heavy duty extension cord to a house on the next block and they were talking bout jeanne and then lo and behold the electric goes on a few days later...... then jeanne made aa loop and came back around and we were earmarked one more time... lost electric 13 days with frances had it back on for less than a week and lost it for another 11 with jeanne!!!!
Quoting yesterway:

Cheers my good man...

is this and aprils fool joke...irene is hugh in size and continues to grow and you can sit there and say fla will not get anything from irene...YOU SUPPOSED TO BE A MET AM I CORRECT...WE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE..
Quoting MississippiWx:


And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-)


LMAO... I remember that one too.
Waiting for Levi's analysis... Trof in Conus into the Gom will pick her up?

Where is the weakness where she will move to?
7591. hydrus
Quoting presslord:
timing is everything with every storm
Yes indeed. One small detail in thr steering pattern or a quick change in the sheer upstairs can make a big difference in lives and property loss..
Quoting cloudburst2011:


You quoted the wrong guy :-)
I'm still liking a David '79 track. Right up the coast of Florida. Only a stronger storm than David was at land fall. Strong Cat 2 low Cat 3. Just a gut feeling looking at everything.
7594. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:
Hurricane Irene Morning Update Aug. 22nd., 2011
Good video Bob Thanks, What are your thoughts on Irene somewhat creating her own enviroment as a major hurricane in relation to making the ridge stronger?
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:


ALTHOUGH INTERACTIONS WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IRENE
SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK. THE
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ HAS BEEN PRONE
TO SENDING SYSTEMS TRACKING NEAR THE EAST COAST INLAND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS DUE TO PREMATURE PHASING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH HAS NOT
VERIFIED SINCE HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS
PLACED UPON THEIR SOLUTIONS. PER THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM ALONG A
DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH BECOMES
REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE
CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NEXT
MONDAY.
It is important to realize that a stronger system will feel weaknesses more. In this case with Irene a more northerly track would be likely. Irene being mainly north of the islands is why there has been a shift to the east with models. I can definitely see Irene becoming a major.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene.

Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning-

By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall-

Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high.

By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing...

I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.


But there's pretty much no way Irene will be like Jeanne, in fact, the hurricane is already taking a more northerly direction than forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if Irene doesn't even come anywhere close to making landfall in Florida.
Quoting overwash12:
Hi Cat5,where is Irene going? Your thoughts please!

In my opinion, she's not going to Florida. She'll stay at least a hundred miles off the East Coast of FL. Not saying that Florida should not be prepared and are out of the woods, but I think this will be a Savanah GA, to Myrtle Beach, SC impact, very likely major hurricane strength. However, the effects of Irene will be felt through the entire state of FL up through at least the Mid-Atlantic states.

I think the GFS and other models will begin to shift back south and west as the high builds in, suggesting that lowland coastal GA/SC impact. Storm surge will be the greatest threat in these regions, especially with her massive size.
Recon headed back towards the center.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/scripts/path.cg i?lat=18.067c18.083c18.100c18.133c18.150c18.167c18 .200c18.217c18.233c18.250c18.283c18.300c18.317c18. 333c18.367c18.383c18.400c18.433c18.450c18.467&lon= -68.250c-68.233c-68.217c-68.200c-68.167c-68.150c-6 8.133c-68.117c-68.100c-68.083c-68.050c-68.033c-68. 017c-68.000c-67.983c-67.967c-67.933c-67.917c-67.90 0c-67.883
I still believe Irene will go up the Coast of Florida and hit Georgia or South Carolina. I agree with the NHC track.
Quoting Jedkins01:


But there's pretty much no way Irene will be like Jeanne, in fact, the hurricane is already taking a more northerly direction than forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if Irene doesn't even come anywhere close to making landfall in Florida.

I agree with you Jed.
Quoting scott39:
Good video Bob Thanks, What are your thoughts on Irene somewhat creating her own enviroment as a major hurricane in relation to making the ridge stronger?


Good point. "Pumping the Ridge!"..Just had to say it!..LOL Yes, these stronger Hurricanes can do that, we would just have to see how strong she gets. She would have to be a Major for something like that to happen. I don't believe it affects them as much as some may think, but when you have a storm moving parallel to the coast like Irene will be doing 50 or 100 miles could make a big difference. We will have to watch for that.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Waiting for Levi's analysis... Troff in Conus into the Gom will pick her up?

Where is the weakness where she will move to?


Me too. He is the EF Hutton of Wunderground.
7605. NJ2S
What about points north of North Carolina ..... the shift in the models is not looking good for VA MD DE NJ NY ..... Anythoughts about that... Irene maybe impacting the most unprepared population on the east coast
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I agree with you Jed.


I agree with your agreement. I don't think Florida ends up with a hell of a lot other than some high surf. I have a feeling it might only graze the SC coast.
Guys people in Florida should still closely watch Irene, but more and more data supports that Irene will not be a Florida storm at all. Heck, you can even see how Irene is already turning more north already ahead of forecast.

This is why I told people yesterday that it was ridiculously too early to say Irene was an extremely dangerous threat to Florida. lol
7608. scott39
Anyone making comments that Irene WILL NOT hit Fl. just shows hom much they know about tracking a TC? Those flipid comments are annoying.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

In my opinion, she's not going to Florida. She'll stay at least a hundred miles off the East Coast of FL. Not saying that Florida should not be prepared and are out of the woods, but I think this will be a Savanah GA, to Myrtle Beach, SC impact, very likely major hurricane strength. However, the effects of Irene will be felt through the entire state of FL up through at least the Mid-Atlantic states.

I think the GFS and other models will begin to shift back south and west as the high builds in, suggesting that lowland coastal GA/SC impact. Storm surge will be the greatest threat in these regions, especially with her massive size.
Thanks, I guess I need to tune up the old chainsaw!LOL
7610. Jax82
Just a little FYI, SSTs in the bahamas are the warmest in the entire basin.

7611. MahFL
The IR blob seems to be moving due west though.....
7612. FLdewey
800,000 reported without power in PR
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I agree with you Jed.

jedkins i cant beleive you are going to be a met making a foolish statement like that...irene continues to grow in size and strength and you have the nerve to say fla will not get anything from irene...you need to go back to weather school and study sizes and intensity upon impact...fla is guaranteed hurricane force gusts with copious amounts of rain...so man get up and really take notice of whats going on with irene...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:


ALTHOUGH INTERACTIONS WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IRENE
SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK. THE
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ HAS BEEN PRONE
TO SENDING SYSTEMS TRACKING NEAR THE EAST COAST INLAND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS DUE TO PREMATURE PHASING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH HAS NOT
VERIFIED SINCE HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS
PLACED UPON THEIR SOLUTIONS. PER THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM ALONG A
DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH BECOMES
REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE
CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NEXT
MONDAY.


When I saw the models this morning I decided to take a look at this, seems they are taking the eastern solution models with little confidence at least in the shorter term.
Quoting scott39:
Anyone making comments that Irene WILL NOT hit Fl. just shows hom much they know about tracking a TC? Those flipid comments are annoying.
I concur...
I had no avocado's in my tree since Jean... I just went to the backyard and I've got 32 wind blown avocado's...
Don't discount the impact of high surf on Florida...have you seen all the jellyfish in the water lately...won't be able to walk on the beach for weeks.

Just my hunch but I think the track is just gonna keep moving further and further east, until about 24-48 hours from now when Florida is completely out of the cone. Still keeping an eye on it though.
Just because Irene is moving more north doesn't mean she can't turn west again due to the strengthening ridge to the north. It's not time to call Florida off the hook. We will know more info by tomorrow. I am checking my generator out today and buying packs of water.
Quoting scott39:
Anyone making comments that Irene WILL NOT hit Fl. just shows hom much they know about tracking a TC? Those flipid comments are annoying.


computer models and the NHC must also really annoy you then.
7620. scott39
Quoting BobinTampa:


computer models and the NHC must also really annoy you then.
Know just the comments!
Quoting MahFL:
The IR blob seems to be moving due west though.....


Radar and microwave scans of the system are two of the few ways tell you more or less where it is going.
Until the UKMET and GFDL models move with the rest of the model consensus you will not see the NHC shift too far East with its track, thus we cannot take Florida out of the cone. The last two NHC track still had them to the West of the consensus models out of respect for those two models.
Quoting NJ2S:
What about points north of North Carolina ..... the shift in the models is not looking good for VA MD DE NJ NY ..... Anythoughts about that... Irene maybe impacting the most unprepared population on the east coast


I believe that Irene will make landfall in SC/NC coast, based off of the models. However, if it should miss the coast, and head farther east than expected, I don't see this as being a threat to the upper east coast/New England area.
Quoting weatherguy03:


Good point. "Pumping the Ridge!"..Just had to say it!..LOL Yes, these stronger Hurricanes can do that, we would just have to see how strong she gets. She would have to be a Major for something like that to happen. I don't believe it affects them as much as some may think, but when you have a storm moving parallel to the coast like Irene will be doing 50 or 100 miles could make a big difference. We will have to watch for that.




come on bob its a given if irene misses the his and haiti she becomes a major hurricane...still a chance of RI in the central bahamas also....bob get on the ball..
7625. FLdewey
Patience has always been a weak point of das blog.

Relax ladies and gentlemen... wait for it.
7626. ncstorm
Tweet from Big Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Track now much closer to Floyd in 1999.. 1999,1954 was in preseason hurricane analog package issued by my company in May
7627. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Know just the comments!
No-- lol
Climo has been beating the models this year. Looking at climo..this most liking isn't staying way offshore.

7629. 7544
morning all 80mph looks like shes going more west at this hour
To me decision day for Florida is tomorrow. With the more Hurricane Hunter data we are feeding into these models we should have more of a consensus by then. But again I still believe the major threat with Irene will be further up the Southeast Coast from Savannah, GA to Wilmington, NC. as of my forecast today.
7631. Ryuujin
MississippiWx,

So, my call of Irene heading N of Hispanola seems to be panning out. What do you think of the impact of that Shortwave trough on her movement? Or will the High build back in and steer her far more west?
Quoting sunlinepr:
I had no avocado's in my tree since Jean... I just went to the backyard and I've got 32 wind blown avocado's...


They blew in from St Croix....;^)
7633. P451
Good Morning.

Irene continued her steady WNW movement throughout the night.

She is now NW of PR and she will intensify.






Quoting reedzone:
Just because Irene is moving more north doesn't mean she can't turn west again due to the strengthening ridge to the north. It's not time to call Florida off the hook. We will know more info by tomorrow. I am checking my generator out today and buying packs of water.


Are you in Florida Reed?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I agree with you Jed.


At least you're living and Florida and not dying in pain for hurricanes to hit Florida. Thanks for not getting heart broken because Irene will most likely miss Tampa Bay ;)


I live in the Tampa Bay area, every freaking time a hurricane threatens, people either think some voodoo magic or some dome crap like that keeps them away, or everyone just runs around panicking

"ZOMG LIKE OH CRAP GUYS TAMPA IS OVERDOOOOO THIS ONE WILL DEFINTIELY BE ARE STROM I CAN FEEL IT!"



lolol
Quoting weatherguy03:
To me decision day for Florida is tomorrow. With the more Hurricane Hunter data we are feeding into these models we should have more of a consensus by then. But again I still believe the major threat with Irene will be further up the Southeast Coast from Savannah, GA to Wilmington, NC. as of my forecast today.

Agree completely. Will know for FL tomorrow. I paint Savannah up to Myrtle beach--and perhaps even up as far as Wilmington, NC as my potential landfall zone.
Looks to me that the jog to the NW was due to Irene wrapping around the mountainous terrain on the west side of PR. Se will continue W-WNW now.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Guys people in Florida should still closely watch Irene, but more and more data supports that Irene will not be a Florida storm at all. Heck, you can even see how Irene is already turning more north already ahead of forecast.

This is why I told people yesterday that it was ridiculously too early to say Irene was an extremely dangerous threat to Florida. lol



jedkins you are a very irresonsible person to make statements like that when irene is on flas back porch...i would think twice about being a met my man...
When do you think any watches or warnings will be posted for Florida?
Quoting cloudburst2011:




come on bob its a given if irene misses the his and haiti she becomes a major hurricane...still a chance of RI in the central bahamas also....bob get on the ball..


I hear ya and I expressed that in my blog today. But intensity forecasting is where we fail most times and we really wont know how strong she may get until she clears the Hispaniola coast. But yes the ingredients are there for a Major.
7641. Patrap
Morning!

For those of you wondering what happened to the San Juan radar:

FTMJUA
MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE
DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR
SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED
ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME
AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.
Quoting P451:
Good Morning.

Irene continued her steady WNW movement throughout the night.

She is now NW of PR and she will intensify.








Looks due west to me! :)
While I really don't like it I think she takes a track similar to David in 79. Which sux for me :(
Quoting Jedkins01:


At least you're living and Florida and not dying in pain for hurricanes to hit Florida. Thanks for not getting heart broken because Irene will most likely miss Tampa By ;)


I live in the Tampa Bay area, every freaking rime a hurricane threatens, people either think some voodoo magic or some dome crap like that keeps them away, or everyone just runs around panicking

"ZOMG LIKE OH CRAP GUYS TAMPA IS OVERDOOOOO THIS ONE WILL DEFINTIELY BE ARE STROM I CAN FEEL IT!"



lolol

LOL! Yeah, I can live without them her here in the sunshine state, as much as I love these things.
I believe the center of Irene is actually a bit south of where the NHC has it.. 18.7N .. around there.
7647. 900MB
Quoting NJ2S:
What about points north of North Carolina ..... the shift in the models is not looking good for VA MD DE NJ NY ..... Anythoughts about that... Irene maybe impacting the most unprepared population on the east coast


Growing more concerned for the NorthEast. Just a Cat 2 would devastate us.
Quoting scott39:
Anyone making comments that Irene WILL NOT hit Fl. just shows hom much they know about tracking a TC? Those flipid comments are annoying.


Wishing a storm to hit you is a pretty sad thing. Aren't you supposed to be in school?
What's the next radar site to the TDWR?
7650. srada
Quoting weatherguy03:
To me decision day for Florida is tomorrow. With the more Hurricane Hunter data we are feeding into these models we should have more of a consensus by then. But again I still believe the major threat with Irene will be further up the Southeast Coast from Savannah, GA to Wilmington, NC. as of my forecast today.


With the ECWMF calling for landfall near Wilmington, I am watching this storm path every chance I get.
7651. P451
Quoting scott39:
Anyone making comments that Irene WILL NOT hit Fl. just shows hom much they know about tracking a TC? Those flipid comments are annoying.


It's common. Look at how many people yesterday insisted all day long Irene was moving due West? Would stay south of PR and Dominica? It was an all day long event. Yet she kept coming WNW.

I kept posting imagery, both loops and analyzed static images, to show those suggesting west that the storm was steadily moving WNW and could possibly exit PR to the north.

All I got was blank stares followed by "It's heading west. Due 270."

So it should be of no surprise you will now see some new form of "It's going here not there." today.

Just got to analyze the imagery for yourself and formulate an idea for yourself and only trust the comments of the handful of true experts on here.

7652. 7544
its going to be one of those stroms where u hear irene still continues to go west west west and then the panic will start on no time to do much watch i can feel it
Quoting jeffs713:


Wishing a storm to hit you is a pretty sad thing. Aren't you supposed to be in school?

LMAO
7654. Jax82
The Doc will prob update the blog at 11am when the new forecast comes out, that is if the blog doesnt choke at 9,000 comments first.
7655. aimetti
well gee, looks like we actually have to watch this one from up here on the SE CT coast.
Quoting jbplefty:
When do you think any watches or warnings will be posted for Florida?


When the NHC thinks they need to....
7657. Gorty
Any radar from down there so we can see which way shes going?
7659. NJ2S
Quoting BobinTampa:


computer models and the NHC must also really annoy you then.


Lol seems like once a storm is forecast to impact Florida it becomes a crime to say otherwise! There are people living NOrth of FLorida, floridians! We deserve a little attention too!!!' NOW FOR THE 3rd TIME , any info on what to expect in the mid Atlantic and northeast
Yay, more upper air data.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.


atmo: Umm, Pittsburg? I suppose that's related to trough passage and it's characteristics, I guess. The rest obviously make sense.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Are you in Florida Reed?


Yeah, Northern Florida... Cut that last comment, the radar shows the position is correct. Sorry for the misinformation. I understand a stronger system moves more north, but even stronger systems have in the past moved west.
Quoting ncstorm:
Tweet from Big Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Track now much closer to Floyd in 1999.. 1999,1954 was in preseason hurricane analog package issued by my company in May


Honestly I can't stand the guy. Every update he changes his forecast so yes eventually he will be get it right after trying several times.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Looks due west to me! :)


Put your mouse pointer in the center of the eye at the beginning of the radar loop. Then watch where the eye goes. You can clearly see the WNW movement.
Quoting newportrinative:


When the NHC thinks they need to....



i think fla should beplaced under hurricane watch late tonight...the NHC knows something is up thet havent shited the cone east once...
986.0 mb
(~ 29.12 inHg)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yay, more upper air data.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.


atmo: Umm, Pittsburg? I suppose that's related to trough passage and it's characteristics, I guess. The rest obviously make sense.

Pittsburgh, Nashville, Blacksberg, Sterling, and Wallops Island are all related to the trough.
7667. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







A lot of folks need to make use your busted ts forecast alibi list this morning.

24 hours of steady WNW motion in the face of "ITS GOING WEST. SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS".

lol.

A few dozen heaping plates of crow await some folks.

I think they will end up going to waste.
7668. NJ2S
Quoting mcmurray02:


I believe that Irene will make landfall in SC/NC coast, based off of the models. However, if it should miss the coast, and head farther east than expected, I don't see this as being a threat to the upper east coast/New England area.


Thank u for your response
Quoting jeffs713:


Wishing a storm to hit you is a pretty sad thing. Aren't you supposed to be in school?


uh
Quoting cat5hurricane:

LOL! Yeah, I can live without them her here in the sunshine state, as much as I love these things.


Yeah I mean. as a weather freak, I would love to see a full force hurricane, but as Ive grown into an Adult, I can't justify getting excited over a storm that will ruin so many lives. Its just so selfish I can't do it. Its down right wrong, as much as I want to be excited.
Time: 13:42:30Z
Coordinates: 18.9833N 67.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,034 meters (~ 9,954 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.0 mb (~ 29.12 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 330° at 3 knots (From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8°C (~ 56.8°F)
Dew Pt: 8.9°C (~ 48.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots* (~ 28.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

This is the centre. Moving WNW, still.
Quoting E46Pilot:


Put your mouse pointer in the center of the eye at the beginning of the radar loop. Then watch where the eye goes. You can clearly see the WNW movement.


i was joking w/ P451. He fought that battle yesterday to exhaustion.
Never mind that southern portion is actually filling in.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I mean. as a weather freak, I would love to see a full force hurricane, but as Ive grown into an Adult, I can't justify getting excited over a storm that will ruin so many lives. Its just so selfish I can't do it. Its down right wrong, as much as I want to be excited.

My thoughts exactly bud.
Time: 13:42:30Z
Coordinates: 18.9833N 67.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,034 meters (~ 9,954 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.0 mb (~ 29.12 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 330 at 3 knots (From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8C (~ 56.8F)
Dew Pt: 8.9C (~ 48.0F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots* (~ 28.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Recon hit 986mb..
Quoting cloudburst2011:



i think fla should beplaced under hurricane watch late tonight...the NHC knows something is up thet havent shited the cone east once...

Hurricane Watch is 48 hours out, iirc. Irene is more than 48 hours out.
Quoting BobinTampa:


computer models and the NHC must also really annoy you then.


just right now 9:53 am proffesor Knob of TWC ,showed a path of Irene and the westernmost point is heading to Charleston,and FL is still in danger.
Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, Northern Florida... Cut that last comment, the radar shows the position is correct. Sorry for the misinformation. I understand a stronger system moves more north, but even stronger systems have in the past moved west.

Yes Reed it happens but lets use our eyes and not our hearts, she is on the north side of the forecast points and getting stronger. I would not be surprised to see a re-curve.
7680. barbamz
Time: 13:42:30Z
Coordinates: 18.9833N 67.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,034 meters (~ 9,954 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.0 mb (~ 29.12 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 330 at 3 knots (From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8C (~ 56.8F)
Dew Pt: 8.9C (~ 48.0F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots* (~ 28.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Edit: Lol, I'm much too slow. Won't try it again to beat you :)

HH found center to the northwest of the older fix.
7681. P451
Quoting interstatelover7165:
What's the next radar site to the TDWR?


Cuban Radars followed by Miami.

Offshore winds in the North, good surf swell energy.... For sure, Pine Grove or La punta will be crowded today....
7683. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Quoting BrockBerlin:
Eyewall is collapsing could be weakening which may cause a direct westward track straight into Hispanola causing further weakening leaving a shell of a system to dissipate over cuba.


Eyewall is not collapsing, it's tightening, just a little open on the south.
Quoting P451:


Cuban Radars followed by Miami.

thanks. gonna check if they can detect Irene.
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.
I know I'm going to take a beating for this, but Irene seems to be moving North of the forecast point. I would never say that Florida is out of the woods yet, but I will say that those in South Carolina need to add 10% to the 100% of attention required for this storm, because my feeling is that it is heading that way. Hopefully it will just stay Away but at least Floridians although they need to be on high alert, there might be hopw of no impact to you if this trends I see prove true.
7688. P451
Quoting BobinTampa:


Looks due west to me! :)


Absolutely!

lol.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Eyewall is not collapsing, it's tightening, just a little open on the south.


Yeah I jumped the gun a bit lol
Quoting Jax82:
The Doc will prob update the blog at 11am when the new forecast comes out, that is if the blog doesnt choke at 9,000 comments first.

What did the scouter say about the blog comments level?
Quoting Dem86Mets:

Yes Reed it happens but lets use our eyes and not our hearts, she is on the north side of the forecast points and getting stronger. I would not be surprised to see a re-curve.


THAT would make a lot of people on here UNHAPPY
Once again for the fishcasters.. Irene is NOT going to recurve out to sea!
Quoting Patrap:


If most of the action stays in the NE quadrant, even if Irene skirts the E Coast of FL, it may not be a rough ride--except for those poor Bahamians!
Either the models will shift back to the west in the next couple of days or the NHC will have to start to take into account what the models are showing if they continue to go near the mid-Atlantic regardless of how rare a situation it may be.
Im not to sure that a stronger Irene will have any difference in track vs. a weaker Irene. The BAMD isn't wide right nor is the BAMS heading W/WNW.

Best to follow the NHC cone, where a good chunk of the reliable models (including the GFDL and UKMET) lay inside.
Quoting P451:


It's common. Look at how many people yesterday insisted all day long Irene was moving due West? Would stay south of PR and Dominica? It was an all day long event. Yet she kept coming WNW.

I kept posting imagery, both loops and analyzed static images, to show those suggesting west that the storm was steadily moving WNW and could possibly exit PR to the north.

All I got was blank stares followed by "It's heading west. Due 270."

So it should be of no surprise you will now see some new form of "It's going here not there." today.

Just got to analyze the imagery for yourself and formulate an idea for yourself and only trust the comments of the handful of true experts on here.



+1000
Quoting USAFwxguy:
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.


I concur and I hope it is true. Actually radar shows it taking a more northerly track. Lets hope the scenario hold or improves and that no one in the US sees this Hurricane which will be one for the books by the way.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Yeah I jumped the gun a bit lol


Lol, PR passage disrupted the core a little, but it'll sort itself out and continue to strengthen soon.
7699. Patrap
7700. srada
Quoting USAFwxguy:
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.


We can only hope for a miss, but I dont think a recurve out to sea is gonna happen.
Quoting NJ2S:


Lol seems like once a storm is forecast to impact Florida it becomes a crime to say otherwise! There are people living NOrth of FLorida, floridians! We deserve a little attention too!!!' NOW FOR THE 3rd TIME , any info on what to expect in the mid Atlantic and northeast


Agree with you there, I'm up in CT and who knows if this will be one that rides up the coast. Doesn't take much to do damage up here.
haS anybody found a cuban radar yet? i cant find one.
Centre of the projected track



Quoting USAFwxguy:
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.


That trough is digging..
Quoting USAFwxguy:
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.


them's fightin' words!
Quoting Vincent4989:

What did the scouter say about the blog comments level?

IT'S OVER 9 THOUSAND!!!!!!!

lol
Quoting interstatelover7165:
haS anybody found a cuban radar yet? i cant find one.

Irene is too far from Cuba to be picked up by radar.
Wow brock please back up that post #7673 with factual info
7709. Patrap




Quoting jeffs713:

Irene is too far from Cuba to be picked up by radar.
Link
Quoting jeffs713:

Irene is too far from Cuba to be picked up by radar.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHH
If you were a storm chaser,my best guess would be to head for Cape Hatteras,N.C. Bring a lunch!LOL
7713. P451
Last night's motion:





:p


irene will hit the coast of the dom rep and haiti..the bahams and then south fla are really in for the big blow...i would have everything ready guys you been preparing for this all season long...
Quoting TheF1Man:


Agree with you there, I'm up in CT and who knows if this will be one that rides up the coast. Doesn't take much to do damage up here.


What's good for Florida could be bad for you. Don't take comments personally.
400mb analysis (Irene is getting that deep, if not already)



Not the dip due East of Jacksonville, well off shore. Irene is probably feeling that pretty well now and until it lifts she may get her north on a little more.
So as a Wilmingtonian, would it be wise to start really warning about a possible threat here or is it too early?
7718. Patrap
I really beleive that it is going to start trending east, and if there is landfall it will be between Charleston S.C., and the OBX. I wish it would curve out to sea because if it stays off land that long it will probably make landfall as a strong 3 or right on the verge of a 4. I know the SE states could use the rainfall but not at the price that would cost.
7720. Patrap

Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


HH POD

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.




9:00 AM Advisory NHC has 80 mph winds, 990 mb. hmm. interesting,Irene worries me with that new cone shift:/
Quoting P451:
Last night's motion:





:p




Been moving at 270 for the last day. You're wrong.

Oh wait...
Quoting BobinTampa:


them's fightin' words!


What a strange thing to say...
7724. kwgirl
Good morning everyone. Alright, who wished up this storm? LOL After reading through the comments, and for all the newbies in Florida or coastal areas, this comment is for you. This is a wait and see time for us. BE PREPARED to batten down or evacuate. As much as our modern technology has helped with forcast accuracies, there is still a large margin of error. No one can say for sure where this storm is going to hit, just that it will... somewhere. I have always believed that you are a target for a storm as long as it is south of your position and it is moving northerly. But as everyone knows, the storms can turn suddenly (as in Charlie) and rapidly intensify. I thought the Keys were safe from Betsy after it had passed our latitude on the East Coast. Then it did a loop and came right down the keys. The NHC is getting better in their forcasts and they even admit there is a lot of uncertainty. Decide what you are going to do NOW if the storm is threatening your area and be prepared to implement your plan at a moments notice. Welcome to the height of the season. This storm will be the first of many I believe.
Quoting P451:
Last night's motion:





:p




Wow. Puerto Rico drifted a lot further south than i expected!
Wind down from 80 t o75... but pressure now 987 mb
NO WAY IRENE GOES ANYWHERE NEAR NORTH CAROLINA...COME ON PEOPLE USE THE BRAIN GOD GAVE YOU...GEE ITS ALL WRITTEN SO EASY FOR YOU CAN UNDERSTAND...THE SECOND TROF IS NOT VERY STRONG AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON IRENE ALSO.....FLA BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES IRENE IS A COMING,...
Quoting interstatelover7165:
haS anybody found a cuban radar yet? i cant find one.


It's too far away to see it yet, but here is a site when she gets closer. http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILL AS&TB1=RADARES
7729. Thaale
Quoting P451:
Last night's motion:





:p



P541, would you really call that due W? Looks more WSW. I ask because yesterday a commenter called the motion SSW and that seemed reasonable to most.
Quoting USAFwxguy:
With a strengthening cyclone and the steering flow depicted below, it could be entirely possible to get Irene to recurve and avoid CONUS (landfall) altogether



That weakness is already beginning to impart a vector to the north of 290.

Unless the high build in quick and strong, CONUS may avoid this Irene lady.


What do the steering maps look like for tomorrow and the next day? I'm pretty sure that low lifts out pretty quick and then the High builds back in and that's why the NHC has kept FL in Irene's path.
7731. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:


them's fightin' words!


LOL... shower curtains are falling.

She may indeed miss the CONUS. Keep a sharp eye ladies and germs.
Good morning.

The real player is the second trough, the short wave foercast to come in and weaken the ridge... that will really be the factor to help determine a CONUS hit or recurve.

7735. Patrap




Quoting Thaale:

P541, would you really call that due W? Looks more WSW. I ask because yesterday a commenter called the motion SSW and that seemed reasonable to most.


Actually I thought it was going SSE into Brazil to be honest.
Quoting CothranRoss:
So as a Wilmingtonian, would it be wise to start really warning about a possible threat here or is it too early?


I have close friends in Wilmington, and i think you outta wait until late Tuesday. My Opinion anyways, lol
7738. 7544
irene forcast to be a cat two that close to so fla . this could go either way imo if she bulids more on the south side thing are going to happen fast isnt a watch 48 hour notice and so fla could feel the effects on weds night into thursday with the closest shell be is 2 am firday morning they have to decide this soon as we seen with all the others storms this season they have a mind of their own and gone whre no one had expected stay tuned
Quoting Patrap:






shes getting larger.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Wow. Puerto Rico drifted a lot further south than i expected!


It didn't drift, Wishcasters put sails over the mountains and steered the island south so Irene instead of passing south made a direct landfall. I think they pulled it off. Now, if Florida whishcasters could just find a bigger sail huh!
12Z NAM while not a tropical model is finally showing that ridge breaking down.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Alright, who wished up this storm? LOL After reading through the comments, and for all the newbies in Florida or coastal areas, this comment is for you. This is a wait and see time for us. BE PREPARED to batten down or evacuate. As much as our modern technology has helped with forcast accuracies, there is still a large margin of error. No one can say for sure where this storm is going to hit, just that it will... somewhere. I have always believed that you are a target for a storm as long as it is south of your position and it is moving northerly. But as everyone knows, the storms can turn suddenly (as in Charlie) and rapidly intensify. I thought the Keys were safe from Betsy after it had passed our latitude on the East Coast. Then it did a loop and came right down the keys. The NHC is getting better in their forcasts and they even admit there is a lot of uncertainty. Decide what you are going to do NOW if the storm is threatening your area and be prepared to implement your plan at a moments notice. Welcome to the height of the season. This storm will be the first of many I believe.
You are right,they need to find out what pushed/pulled Irene farther north than expected! How are things in Key West,I lived there in 1972 and 3,Wow where has the time gone?
Quoting Patrap:






You are getting close to having a website here on this blog...
Also important to not focus on where the center goes since tropical storm force winds will likely be felt over 100 miles from where the storm is.

NWS advises to get your hurricane supplies June 1st, yet few people actually do. Always better to be safe than sorry. And if a hurricane never hits that season, at least you have supplies in case of a Zombie Apocalypse. ;)
Quoting P451:


Absolutely!

lol.



WU geography: P.R is due west of St Croix. If you keep going west you get to the Bahamas. Continue west to Bermuda.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2011 hurricane season has now been canceled. Due to the behavior on the blog we will now take down Irene and remove the storm from the Atlantic. Please return for the 2012 season, have a nice day.
7747. ncstorm
Quoting USAFwxguy:
The real player is the second trough, the short wave foercast to come in and weaken the ridge... that will really be the factor to help determine a CONUS hit or recurve.



Dr. Masters said the best model for predicting troughs is the ECWMF and right now its not seeing an out to sea option, in fact the NHC has this storm right at GA in its forecast points, it would have to make a hard right turn to avoid the conus
Quoting 69Viking:


What do the steering maps look like for tomorrow and the next day? I'm pretty sure that low lifts out pretty quick and then the High builds back in and that's why the NHC has kept FL in Irene's path.


Correct. This trough we see now is helping Irene get a latitude adjustment. Her strength in the short term will determine how much. When that trough lifts out she will again go to the west (not directly) for 24 - 36 hours before the shortwave moves off the Se coast and weakens the sub-trop ridge for her to again go north more.

Basically, the more north of west she goes now, the less longitude she gains and the chances of a CONUS landfall can be reduced even if only by a little.
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center (it is possible this value is in radians and that our site decoded it wrong).

Splash Location: 19.23N 67.21W
Splash Time: 13:51Z



Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)



996mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 69 knots (79 mph)
I really think we should have some watches up in Fl, This is going to be a florida storm imo Just carnt see the trof affecting Irene as much as i first thought.
Hope yall is well
7751. Jax82
Anyone in the cone is still in danger of Irene. Spread on a 5 day forecast can be up to 300 miles. Models are going to move east and west on every run, and the fact that 2 reliable models still show a landfall in FL means there is still a lot of uncertainty. The 11am update is not too far away, but i would assume a slight easterly shift in the tracks.
Quoting reedzone:
Once again for the fishcasters.. Irene is NOT going to recurve out to sea!


Be careful saying that, the chance of it curving out sea actually appears more likely at this point than a hit on the west coast of Florida. Look at the steering, that ridge over Texas has built eastward, if Irene becomes say a major hurricane and that trough really digs in, it could pull it northeast away from the U.S.

I'm not calling for it to miss the U.S. right now, but it is not wise to say that with out a doubt it will not happen. That a no-no in meteorology 101.
Quoting SPLbeater:


I have close friends in Wilmington, and i think you outta wait until late Tuesday. My Opinion anyways, lol


Yeah, I'd assume if it turns out it hits Florida/Georgia people would think I was crying wolf.
19.23N??
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don’t understand.
Irene headed into dry air.
The next few hours should be interesting.


7757. P451
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Been moving at 270 for the last day. You're wrong.

Oh wait...





Yup. Due West. 270.

7758. Patrap
Actually it's quite amusing here. Every time we have a storm to watch people sit and stare at the radar or satellite and talk about how it is north or south of the forcast points and how the NHC is going to be wrong again. In the end the NHC is usually very close if not right on with their forcasts. I expect a small shift to the right since the TVCN has moved east however with the UKMET and GFDL still way west I wouldnt expect the move to be very far east. In the end i expect the NHC to be very close within the 3 day cone.
models shifting east FL might be safe
7762. 7544
nam is running
7763. wxhatt
We definitely have a strengthing hurricane on our there...

Here is the latest dropsonde data:

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 14:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.2N 67.1W
Location: 87 miles (140 km) to the NW (309°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
996mb (29.41 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 95° (from the E) 69 knots (79 mph)
1000mb -36m (-118 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 648m (2,126 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.7°C (71.1°F) 130° (from the SE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,382m (4,534 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 145° (from the SE) 73 knots (84 mph)
700mb 3,031m (9,944 ft) 10.4°C (50.7°F) 10.3°C (50.5°F) 160° (from the SSE) 59 knots (68 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:46Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 19.23N 67.21W
Splash Time: 13:51Z

Release Location: 19.16N 67.14W
Release Time: 13:46:43Z

Splash Location: 19.23N 67.21W
Splash Time: 13:51:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 85 knots (98 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 71 knots (82 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 995mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
996mb (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77.0°F)
850mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 18.0°C (64.4°F)
748mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 13.6°C (56.5°F)
740mb 12.0°C (53.6°F) 11.5°C (52.7°F)
710mb 11.6°C (52.9°F) 11.4°C (52.5°F)
696mb 10.0°C (50.0°F) 10.0°C (50.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
996mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 69 knots (79 mph)
982mb 100° (from the E) 88 knots (101 mph)
953mb 115° (from the ESE) 86 knots (99 mph)
947mb 120° (from the ESE) 92 knots (106 mph)
935mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)
917mb 130° (from the SE) 83 knots (96 mph)
907mb 130° (from the SE) 78 knots (90 mph)
893mb 135° (from the SE) 82 knots (94 mph)
885mb 135° (from the SE) 81 knots (93 mph)
874mb 135° (from the SE) 73 knots (84 mph)
850mb 145° (from the SE) 73 knots (84 mph)
696mb 160° (from the SSE) 59 knots (68 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don’t understand.


lmao
Quoting P451:





Yup. Due West. 270.




LOL ;)
7767. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


7768. RickWPB
Quoting CothranRoss:
So as a Wilmingtonian, would it be wise to start really warning about a possible threat here or is it too early?

Too early I'd say. But... I sure would tell folks to pay attention to what is going on.


ok, will give it a few hours to percolate.
l8r
7770. divdog
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don’t understand.
What r u trying to say
7771. P451
Quoting ElConando:


Actually I thought it was going SSE into Brazil to be honest.


Quoting PrivateIdaho:


WU geography: P.R is due west of St Croix. If you keep going west you get to the Bahamas. Continue west to Bermuda.


Quoting Thaale:

P541, would you really call that due W? Looks more WSW. I ask because yesterday a commenter called the motion SSW and that seemed reasonable to most.


Quoting BobinTampa:


Wow. Puerto Rico drifted a lot further south than i expected!





LOLllllllllllll

7772. wxhatt
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Actually it's quite amusing here. Every time we have a storm to watch people sit and stare at the radar or satellite and talk about how it is north or south of the forcast points and how the NHC is going to be wrong again. In the end the NHC is usually very close if not right on with their forcasts. I expect a small shift to the right since the TVCN has moved east however with the UKMET and GFDL still way west I wouldnt expect the move to be very far east. In the end i expect the NHC to be very close within the 3 day cone.


Thank You.

Always follow the NHC forcast...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Be careful saying that, the chance of it curving out sea actually appears more likely at this point than a hit on the west coast of Florida. Look at the steering, that ridge over Texas has built eastward, if Irene becomes say a major hurricane and that trough really digs in, it could pull it northeast away from the U.S.

I'm not calling for it to miss the U.S. right now, but it is not wise to say that with out a doubt it will not happen. That a no-no in meteorology 101.



YOU ARE BEING WISHY WASHY WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS...YOU NEED TO COME CLEAN WITH THE FOLKS IN FLA AND APOLOGIZE FOR THE DUMB STATEMENT YOU MADE SAYING FLA WOULD GET NOTHING FROM THIS....
Lol the NAM can be amusing to watch, it seems to break down the ridging only to magically have the system dive SW into Cuba...
Quoting jeffs713:

Pittsburgh, Nashville, Blacksberg, Sterling, and Wallops Island are all related to the trough.
Yep. Just seems that Pittsburg would of the least useful among those, but what do I know?

Emanuel's CHIPS intensity models:

All but one ensemble member keep Irene below cat 2 for the indefinite future. Only one member resembles HWRF-type intensity. While HWRF has it's tendency to Hyper-cane, what does everyone see that could keep Irene from significantly intensifying?



High SST / OHC: check
No stalling: Check.
Low shear: Check.
Minimal issues with dry air: Umm, not-check, maybe.



If she cannot shield the mid-level dry air by having a solid core, she may never strengthen beyond cat 1.

Any other inhibitors?
Fasten your safety belts; it's going to be a bumpy week...

For thsoe of you saying Irene is going ____, or Irene is going to make landfall at ____ please stop; you have no better idea than anyone, least of all the NHC, so be like the rest of us who have been doing this for a while: be patient and watch how the steering plays out.
7777. Patrap
A Half Juicy WV & Rainbow this morn.




NAO Continues to tank negative, implying a weaker A/B High.

Yesterday = -0.37752E+00

Today = -0.76617E+00
7779. 7544
nam sends irene south ? anyone can post it tia worth a post
7780. A4Guy
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don’t understand.



BRAVO!!!!!!!! 10,0000 points for you.

Have said something similar many times in the past...but not in such a funny way. :)
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1000 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AND FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...19.0N 67.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Irene has moved 145 miles to the north of the National Hurricane Center's first projected path.

The 36 hour position on Advisory 1 had Irene at 16.7N. , 67.0W. Irene just crossed 67.0W this morning and it was at 19.0N.
Is this thing getting bigger? dont storms get bigger with lattitude? Thinking we may not get off free this time here in St. Augustine.
is it just me or is Irene making another jog to the WEST.... She just needs to crank up and move out to sea :)... but then again where's the excitment in that?! lol
Quoting P451:





Yup. Due West. 270.



Good one P!
Morning guys, so any damage reports from PR??
7787. Patrap

Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Just seems that Pittsburg would of the least useful among those, but what do I know?

Emanuel's CHIPS intensity models:

All but one ensemble member keep Irene below cat 2 for the indefinite future. Only one member resembles HWRF-type intensity. While HWRF has it's tendency to Hyper-cane, what does everyone seem that could keep Irene from significantly intensifying?



High SST / OHC: check
No stalling: Check.
Low shear: Check.
Minimal issues with dry air: Umm, not-check, maybe.



If she cannot shield the mid-level dry air by having a solid core, she may never strengthen beyond cat 1.

Any other inhibitors?

This may be true. Mid-level RH levels (500-700mb) are only in the mid 50's according to 12Z SHIPS, and only anticipated to be in the mid-50's through the next 48 hours.
Quoting TerraNova:
Morning!

For those of you wondering what happened to the San Juan radar:

FTMJUA
MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE
DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR
SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED
ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME
AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.
They don't have an electric plant? Wow,only in P.R. all the radars in the lesser antilles worked through out the storm perfectly...
7790. divdog
Quoting cloudburst2011:



YOU ARE BEING WISHY WASHY WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS...YOU NEED TO COME CLEAN WITH THE FOLKS IN FLA AND APOLOGIZE FOR THE DUMB STATEMENT YOU MADE SAYING FLA WOULD GET NOTHING FROM THIS....
turn off the caps would ya. nobody likes being yelled at
7791. DVG
USAFwguy.....Watch Levi's video. For days if not weeks, he's pointed out these troughs come and leave very quickly. What you see right now will not be what we see in three days.

The question is how fast and how strong does the ridge move west and block the storm. The NHC is the ultimate authority in this matter. When I first came to this blog I always allowed them to be questioned and discounted. No more. They are flat out the best.

It's ok to try and understand what's going on. Sometimes a little knowledge can be dangerous. Read the synopsis from the NHC. Levi and they are on the same page, more or less. ,Levi's tidbits are easy to understand and informative. He makes sense out of what we see.

I was in Ft Lauderdale as Katrina was bearing down. It veered south. Charley veered east. Jeanne did a loop de loop. Floyd veered right just enough for Fl.

Dora turned left.

By wed there will be a general consensus of the track, but even then a 50 mile change is going to make one heck of a difference. It'll be hours away to make a prediction that precise, and even then things may not go as thought.
7792. Patrap
A Watch should be posted for the Florida East coast b ut with Avila on duty that storm will have to be on his doorstep. He is ultra conservative IMO...too much so
7794. Drakoen
Heading on a true WNW direction. You can see she is dealing with some dry air:

7795. FLdewey
Interesting video update on Irene...

NWS Melbourne Video
7796. Gorty
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Just seems that Pittsburg would of the least useful among those, but what do I know?

Emanuel's CHIPS intensity models:

All but one ensemble member keep Irene below cat 2 for the indefinite future. Only one member resembles HWRF-type intensity. While HWRF has it's tendency to Hyper-cane, what does everyone seem that could keep Irene from significantly intensifying?



High SST / OHC: check
No stalling: Check.
Low shear: Check.
Minimal issues with dry air: Umm, not-check, maybe.



If she cannot shield the mid-level dry air by having a solid core, she may never strengthen beyond cat 1.

Any other inhibitors?


The Mets must know something we dont... none of them are saying anything about dry air.
7797. NCCANE
for those with questions about the weakening of the High Pressure, here is an excerpt from the 5am NHC update.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
If GFDL is still mailing it in and UKMET, likewise (I am convinced that they have been, thus far), seems to me, at this moment, at least, that Irene might miss FL by a lot more than the OFCL track. She might even miss GA and SC, if the other models are to be believed, although, I'd put as much stock into NOGAPS and N-GFDL solutions as the GFDL one, based on past performance.



The simple models also support the above notion:

Quoting Patrap:

Wish that radar would updated already. It skipped about 3 frames.
7800. 7544
ridge is stronger on the nam dips her sw into cent cuba then waiting lol
7801. Patrap
No new blog?
Interesting. I have a doctor's appointment on Thurday, so I called the office to find out when they were going to reschedule me for. Conversation went like this:

"Hurricane? What hurricane?"

"You know I thought I heard something about that on the news...."

"But these things does divert... one minute."

After a brief consultation...

"We ga be here. Of course if the storm really come, we won't... but we'll call you to reschedule afterwards."

Things that make you go HMMMM....
Quoting Floodman:
Fasten your safety belts; it's going to be a bumpy week...

For thsoe of you saying Irene is going ____, or Irene is going to make landfall at ____ please stop; you have no better idea than anyone, least of all the NHC, so be like the rest of us who have been doing this for a while: be patient and watch how the steering plays out.


Well said. I live in S. FL... and until NHC says I'm in the clear, I function as though I'm not.

Signs are encouraging that it will not be a catastrophic event here, but all anyone can really do is watch and wait.
Quoting Floodman:
Fasten your safety belts; it's going to be a bumpy week...

For thsoe of you saying Irene is going ____, or Irene is going to make landfall at ____ please stop; you have no better idea than anyone, least of all the NHC, so be like the rest of us who have been doing this for a while: be patient and watch how the steering plays out.
What are u trying to say? LOL
7806. divdog
Quoting Patrap:
hope u choke on that dry air Irene.
7807. Drakoen
The 500mb height reading over Bermuda has only dropped 1 decameter since the 00z reading 12 hours ago:

Alright 8k posts are enough, a new blog is needed about now.
Quoting Floodman:
Fasten your safety belts; it's going to be a bumpy week...

For thsoe of you saying Irene is going ____, or Irene is going to make landfall at ____ please stop; you have no better idea than anyone, least of all the NHC, so be like the rest of us who have been doing this for a while: be patient and watch how the steering plays out.


Great advice Floodman but you know as well as I do there are those that just like to throw stuff out there to start an argument! I used to get suckered in but now I just sit back and watch. This storm will probably go somewhere between South Florida and North Carolina and right now nobody can say for certain exactly where that will be!
I will feel better once I see GFDL come off its insistence of FL West Coast. Althought it may be over-baked, still it is tough to discount the GFDL in general.

And with the second shortwave trough set to be such a critical player in steering, it remains entirely plausible that FL gets the landfall.

As it is also plausible that Irene simply recurve altogether and avoid CONUS.

Or anything in between.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Morning guys, so any damage reports from PR??


Lot of power out...sunlinepr reported dozens of bruised avocados.
7812. Patrap
Latest Frame from 14:23

7775. atmoaggie

Any other inhibitors?


Latest SHIPS has a warming upper level
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -49.1 -47.8 -47.4


That would be what the 06Z GFS indicates
7814. NCSaint
Quoting CothranRoss:
So as a Wilmingtonian, would it be wise to start really warning about a possible threat here or is it too early?


I live in Jacksonville and NO, it is absolutely NOT too ealry to start getting prepared. Even at a week out and the possibility it may do something surprising, you have to be ready for the worst-case. Look at it this way, even if this one misses us, we haven't even gotten into the season peak yet.

At any rate, with potential impact anywhere from NE Florida to OBX, we will almost certainly get SOME effect from the storm, so you may as well get things ready.

JMO
7815. Gorty
She might just skirt the northern coast of Hispanola. She is going wnw with some jogs to the nw.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Lot of power out...sunlinepr reported dozens of bruised avocados.


LOL!! There goes the guac!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Interesting. I have a doctor's appointment on Thurday, so I called the office to find out when they were going to reshedule me for. Conversation went like this:

"Hurricane? What hurricane?"

"You know I thought I heard something about that on the news...."

"But these things does divert... one minute."

After a brief consultation...

"We ga be here. Of course if the storm really come, we won't... but we'll call you to reschedule afterwards."

Things that make you go HMMMM....


They say bahamian doctors get a trill out of performing heart surgery during a Cat 5, gets the blood really pumping. "They" being no one of course.
7818. 7544
nam has her further west this run the ridge is stronger
7819. wxhatt
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don't understand.


I don't either. When I first got on this blog and was chainsawed by some on my comments of those whom may only have their GED equivilent, I was flabbergasted.
I could at least say I have completed college course in Meteorology with a heavy cirriculum in math and science.

Go figure, LOL.

Any damage reports from PR???
At least the deforest mountains of Hispanola appear to be out-of-the-woods.
7822. kaiden
Quoting P451:





Yup. Due West. 270.



If you sit on the sofa with your Right leg crossed over your left it will put a tilt in the lap top to make the map you did on #7713 look due West.
7823. P451
A lot to ponder here today folks. A little early in the game to make a call.

I want to see more imagery before I'd even bother. See how the trof progresses - how sharp will it get.

Irene is already quite far north mind you so no matter what the trof does she will feel more of it's influence.




That's 6 hours of imagery. Wish I could see the next 6.


Note the death ridge firmly in place over Texas. :/

Quoting TheF1Man:


Agree with you there, I'm up in CT and who knows if this will be one that rides up the coast. Doesn't take much to do damage up here.
was living in ct for gloria and bob,big trees down everywhere,we lived 10 miles inland and their was salt dried up on our windows!!!,lived in swfl 10 yrs and experiencd far worse tc condition living 15 yrs in ct,odd huh???
7826. kwgirl
Quoting overwash12:
You are right,they need to find out what pushed/pulled Irene farther north than expected! How are things in Key West,I lived there in 1972 and 3,Wow where has the time gone?
Yeah, I was doing fine until I turned around and discovered I had gotten considerably older than my self image LOL. I guess that happens to us all. Key West is doing as well as can be expected in these tough financial times. If you haven't visited since 1973, you wouldn't believe the changes! Just remember, it is hard to remove a Conch from the Rock to which it's attached. Even with Wilma flooding the chain of Islands, we dryed ourselves off and kept going. Even when the State calls for mandatory evacuations we stay put. I am still waiting for the plane ticket and hotel reservations compliments of our government. I ain't holding my breath! There will be a lot of people, no matter how strong a hurricane is heading to the Keys, who will not evacuate. And our Island chain is very vulnerable. It could happen that a bridge is taken out and we will be without water, electric and any way to get help except by boat. It has happened before. But like the rest of mankind, we all think it won't happen to us. So all decisions need to be made with the local factors involved. How long to get away, where to go, how to get there, and last but not least how to get back. Life is more important than material things and everyone needs to keep this in mind. Now, I think I will put my soapbox away and get back to work. I will be lurking on and off all day.
7827. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
No new blog?


We're going for a record.

Or, perhaps awaiting the 11am discussion so he can make a real good blog entry for us. More details Dr M can get the better for the blog entry.

Since it's a serious storm now that would make sense to put time into this next entry.
Quoting wxhatt:
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don’t understand.


I don't either. When I first got on this blog and was chainsaw by some on my comments of those whom may only have their GED equivilent, I was flabbergasted.
I could at least say I have completed college course in Meteorology with a heavy cirriculum in math and science.

Go figure, LOL.



Nice :-)
7829. Gorty
She has dry air in the short term, but dang, shes looking good with it. Beyond that, the atmosphere is not as dry.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Interesting. I have a doctor's appointment on Thurday, so I called the office to find out when they were going to reshedule me for. Conversation went like this:

"Hurricane? What hurricane?"

"You know I thought I heard something about that on the news...."

"But these things does divert... one minute."

After a brief consultation...

"We ga be here. Of course if the storm really come, we won't... but we'll call you to reschedule afterwards."

Things that make you go HMMMM....


Yep, those are the average Joe's most people are oblivious to their surroundings, which puts people like us way ahead of the curve
Quoting cloudburst2011:



YOU ARE BEING WISHY WASHY WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS...YOU NEED TO COME CLEAN WITH THE FOLKS IN FLA AND APOLOGIZE FOR THE DUMB STATEMENT YOU MADE SAYING FLA WOULD GET NOTHING FROM THIS....


Oh I'm cringing in my freaking boots because you speak with such authority!


;) LOL
7833. FLdewey
Quoting tropicfreak:
Any damage reports from PR???


Google it! Google news has lots of reports.
7834. ph34683
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
At least the deforest mountains of Hispanola appear to be out-of-the-woods.


Terrible, terrible pun for so early in the day.
7835. ncstorm
Who is nervous right now? I know I am..
Either way you look at it,it appears a major is on the way! NO?
Go here and select all the models, step it out to the final frame which is for 25/12. It depicts 500mb ht

You can see why FL is not in the clear.

Link
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a decent possibility Irene could be downgraded to a TS with the next advisory she looks very ragged.


Your face looks ragged, OoOoOoOoOoOoOo

lolol
Pretty much breathing a sigh of relief here in Biloxi....It's no too early to do that right?
is she pumping it yet???expecting a landfall near islmorada,north fl keys
Quoting Drakoen:
Heading on a true WNW direction. You can see she is dealing with some dry air:

Yep. Very good example.

*Some* of the lagging convection to the south due to PR's presence, but moreso due to dry air, clearly.

Will be interesting to see if the has a long-term issue with the dry air or fights it off enough to start shielding it better.
7842. P451
West half of the storm is out of radar reach. Now we're in the dark structure wise until Cuba begins to pick her up.

Their radars aren't the best however.

The timing on this trough and how much it impacts the ridge is going to be a nailbiter...
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a decent possibility Irene could be downgraded to a TS with the next advisory she looks very ragged.
Is that what the MacDrivel numbers say?
expect hurricane watches for sefl coastline tonight 11pm
7846. wxhatt
Quoting wxhatt:

Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don't understand.


I don't either. When I first got on this blog and was chainsawed by some on my comments of those whom may only have their GED equivilent, I was flabbergasted.
I could at least say I have completed college course in Meteorology with a heavy cirriculum in math and science.

Go figure, LOL.



Quoting Floodman:
Fasten your safety belts; it's going to be a bumpy week...

For thsoe of you saying Irene is going ____, or Irene is going to make landfall at ____ please stop; you have no better idea than anyone, least of all the NHC, so be like the rest of us who have been doing this for a while: be patient and watch how the steering plays out.


Thank you for your wisdom...
7847. Patrap
7848. Gorty
Looks like the GFDL went slightly east.... no surprise there.
Quoting stillwaiting:
is she pumping it yet???expecting a landfall near islmorada,north fl keys


How can you say that?
Quoting atmoaggie:
If GFDL is still mailing it in and UKMET, likewise (I am convinced that they have been, thus far), seems to me, at this moment, at least, that Irene might miss FL by a lot more than the OFCL track. She might even miss GA and SC, if the other models are to be believed, although, I'd put as much stock into NOGAPS and N-GFDL solutions as the GFDL one, based on past performance.



The simple models also support the above notion:



Well at the moment the NHC has low confidence in those models but I would imagine that could change as the situation progresses.
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, I was doing fine until I turned around and discovered I had gotten considerably older than my self image LOL. I guess that happens to us all. Key West is doing as well as can be expected in these tough financial times. If you haven't visited since 1973, you wouldn't believe the changes! Just remember, it is hard to remove a Conch from the Rock to which it's attached. Even with Wilma flooding the chain of Islands, we dryed ourselves off and kept going. Even when the State calls for mandatory evacuations we stay put. I am still waiting for the plane ticket and hotel reservations compliments of our government. I ain't holding my breath! There will be a lot of people, no matter how strong a hurricane is heading to the Keys, who will not evacuate. And our Island chain is very vulnerable. It could happen that a bridge is taken out and we will be without water, electric and any way to get help except by boat. It has happened before. But like the rest of mankind, we all think it won't happen to us. So all decisions need to be made with the local factors involved. How long to get away, where to go, how to get there, and last but not least how to get back. Life is more important than material things and everyone needs to keep this in mind. Now, I think I will put my soapbox away and get back to work. I will be lurking on and off all day.
Thanks, I lived in Sigsbee park,Of course my dad was in the Navy,I will make it back soon,my kids want to visit and I can show them around,but like you said,it has changed! Talk later,and be safe!
Quoting BahaHurican:
The timing on this trough and how much it impacts the ridge is going to be a nailbiter...

sure is.

what Bahamian Island are you on again?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
At least the deforest mountains of Hispanola appear to be out-of-the-woods.



hey you got me laughing, as terrible as it is hahahaha
7854. divdog
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Pretty much breathing a sigh of relief here in Biloxi....It's no too early to do that right?
never too early to breathe
7855. 7544
nam very close over andros island
7857. Dunkman
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a decent possibility Irene could be downgraded to a TS with the next advisory she looks very ragged.


Recon dropsonde in the NE eyewall was 80mph at the surface 30 minutes ago....I'm going to say a downgrade is pretty unlikely.
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Go here and select all the models, step it out to the final frame which is for 25/12. It depicts 500mb ht

You can see why FL is not in the clear.

Link


Nice graphic. Thanks for the insight. The weakness between the two highs continues to be the spine of Florida.
Quoting Dunkman:


Recon dropsonde in the NE eyewall was 80mph at the surface 30 minutes ago....I'm going to say a downgrade is pretty unlikely.

don't pay any attention to that guy.
7861. P451
Quoting Jedkins01:


Your face looks ragged, OoOoOoOoOoOoOo

lolol


Looks like ten miles of bad road.

Looks like it caught fire and someone used a rake to put it out.


Looks like....


The weaker Irene is the more West and toward Florida she will go as depicted by the GFDL. That is why the NHC is being very conservative about their analysis. IMO.
Quoting Ryuujin:
Stop quoting lucreto. He is a troll, nothing more. Ive got him ignore so I don't have to see his inane posts. Please do us the favor and don't quote trolls!


I know he is, I just wanted to get my kicks lol
7864. P451
Quoting kaiden:


If you sit on the sofa with your Right leg crossed over your left it will put a tilt in the lap top to make the map you did on #7713 look due West.


Hmmmm...maybe that's been the problem all along.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



YOU ARE BEING WISHY WASHY WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS...YOU NEED TO COME CLEAN WITH THE FOLKS IN FLA AND APOLOGIZE FOR THE DUMB STATEMENT YOU MADE SAYING FLA WOULD GET NOTHING FROM THIS....
As I am sure (not) that the entire population of FL is hanging on his every word. Chill out, take a breath, take a break. We are all human, we all have egos, and we are all wrong at some point.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Very good example.

*Some* of the lagging convection to the south due to PR's presence, but moreso due to dry air, clearly.

Will be interesting to see if the has a long-term issue with the dry air or fights it off enough to start shielding it better.


I found it interesting that the NHC did not mention the dry air, as an inhibiting factor, this morning. It is obvious on radar, and satellite images. I would think the steady intensification will stop soon unless Irene is able to better shield her core.
from the augusta chronicle when earl came by:

But if history is any guide, Georgia is safe from potential harm. Why? Georgia's curved coastline makes it harder to attract a direct hit, and our state has fewer miles of coast than neighboring Florida or South Carolina, both of which have endured their share of Atlantic hurricanes. In fact, Georgia hasn't taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in more than a century, and only four minor storms made landfall here during the 1900s. Georgia's three worst hurricanes all occurred during the month of August and all made came ashore in the Savannah vicinity in 1881, 1893 and 1898, with the Augusta area's most catastrophic impacts occurring in the 1881 storm in which 700 people died, including some deaths in our town.
7869. FLdewey
Oh yeah... this is more and more looking like Florida will only get waves.

Where's the wax?
G'day all,

Hmmm, well that sure was a definitely more NW jog over / across PR last night as Irene has had more NW wobbles to it's WNW track than W the last 24 hrs... thought it would crash into the S side, exit over the W half island, so for being in such error of about 1 or 2 10th's degree latitude off, I guess I'm resigned to some tabasco crow omlette with coffee this morn...
;)

Nice big center Irene has created, matches it's mammoth size... do not see what could keep our 1st hurricane from becoming a major.
7871. DVG
>Quoting P451:
A lot to ponder here today folks. A little early in the game to make a call.

I want to see more imagery before I'd even bother. See how the trof progresses - how sharp will it get.

Irene is already quite far north mind you so no matter what the trof does she will feel more of it's influence.

Looking forward to Levi's thoughts on the trough.
It appears the the low from which the trough extends will be in the N Atlantic within 24 hours.

What his thoughts are concerning the ridge and this trough should be incitefull. I hope the NHC comments on this as well.

weathers4me

The weaker Irene is the more West and toward Florida she will go as depicted by the GFDL. That is why the NHC is being very conservative about their analysis. IMO.


good morning...I couldn't agree more...still alot of time left for her to do whatever..who ever posted about her going sw, yep seen that model also..sure it don't make sence...but has anything this year?? or any year for that matter..they will go where they go...all we can do is watch, wait and see...
7873. nash28
Quoting weathers4me:
The weaker Irene is the more West and toward Florida she will go as depicted by the GFDL. That is why the NHC is being very conservative about their analysis. IMO.


Irene is not weak. She is a vertically stacked system with excellent outflow channels. Just going to continue to deepen. This is all about the squeeze between the two highs. The Rockies High and the ST High. Where that weakness sets up is where she is going...
7874. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
If GFDL is still mailing it in and UKMET, likewise (I am convinced that they have been, thus far), seems to me, at this moment, at least, that Irene might miss FL by a lot more than the OFCL track. She might even miss GA and SC, if the other models are to be believed, although, I'd put as much stock into NOGAPS and N-GFDL solutions as the GFDL one, based on past performance.



The simple models also support the above notion:




What do you think of the GFDL solution?

7875. Gorty
Quoting vortextrance:


I found it interesting that the NHC did not mention the dry air, as an inhibiting factor, this morning. It is obvious on radar, and satellite images. I would think the steady intensification will stop soon unless Irene is able to better shield her core.


She's doing a good job

Link
Outflow looks great on the northern half of Irene, western and southern sides are severly lacking any appreciable outflow, with a lot of restrictions. By the way, radar imagery suggests Irene is heading WNW not W like some are still saying. Explain to me how radar shows her moving west?
Quoting TampaBayWX:


How can you say that?
its called my opinion,and i just type in what i want to appear on the blog,lol..really though jmo
So will you guys explain whats happening and what forces are deciding where Irene will go?

What ridge will do what? How long do ridges usually take to beging to break down?

Im seeing posts about a ridge to the North East and another over texas and then irene will squeeze between both of them and take the path of least resistance?

I read the NHC reports but im simple folk and dont get all the big words... wish they had a update that was for the non-weather peeps.

Thanks.
7879. 7544
looks like we might see model wars again today
nam has her very close to so fla can anyone post the final results tia its worth a look at
Quoting lucreto:


It will probably be a lot weaker than forecast it is currently getting choked by dry air and will likely crash into Hispanola and Cuba and emerge as an open wave over the Yucatan Channel.
Like your Doctorate degree!LOL
Quoting lucreto:
Looks like a decent possibility Irene could be downgraded to a TS with the next advisory she looks very ragged.


The storm is not ragged at all. It's out of radar coverage. If anything it is getting stronger around the core.
Quoting ElConando:


They say bahamian doctors get a trill out of performing heart surgery during a Cat 5, gets the blood really pumping. "They" being no one of course.
Course that was the receptionist... my doc still has a very posh Brit accent after many years here... lol
Quoting Grothar:



What do you think of the GFDL solution?


Well, it's coming around at least, but still too far west. Not that FL in any way should let their guard down, but remember this was once the model that took Irene out to the GOM after slitting the uprights between the Yuc and Western Cuba a few days ago.
7886. FLdewey
Quoting depalma13:


The storm is not ragged at all. It's out of radar coverage. If anything it is getting stronger around the core.


Tis just a troll... ignore and move on.
7887. MahFL
Quoting 7544:
nam has her further west this run the ridge is stronger


Yey !!!! FL hit FL hit :P........
7888. Ryuujin
What I'm more concerned with is that in the WV imaging is that Low looks like it might transition into a cutoff low and then all bets are off on how Irene will react with it, because models can't deal with cutoff lows. Anyone else seeing that in the last few frames over the CONUS?
PR Nexrad appears to be working with the animation again...

Thanks Pat for the updated images the past couple blog pages...
7890. snotly
Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...


STORMTOP OUT.. err, excuse me, I mean, cloudburst...
Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...


by 'the whole state of Florida,' you mean the 50 people on this blog from Florida who read his statement?

For the record, if Irene kills me, I DO NOT blame Jedkins.
7892. FLdewey
Quoting cloudburst2011:



LOTS OF CAPS

Nobody takes you seriously chief... calm down and find something else to do.

Irene is indeed going to be a close call. Of course everyone in the cone should be prepared, but I think this one is a miss for FL.
Quoting lucreto:
Yeah pressure has increased and winds have gone down the weakening flag is on as well.


Where are you getting this information? I do not see any of this while monitoring recon.
@Lucreto.

Wasn't Charley a cat 1 or 2 at landfall?
7895. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:


by 'the whole state of Florida,' you mean the 50 people on this blog from Florida who read his statement?

For the record, if Irene kills me, I DO NOT blame Jedkins.


I will... if Irene kills me I am totally going to blame him.
7896. P451
Quoting nash28:


Irene is not weak. She is a vertically stacked system with excellent outflow channels. Just going to continue to deepen. This is all about the squeeze between the two highs. The Rockies High and the ST High. Where that weakness sets up is where she is going...


One thing is proximity to PR and DR. Once she passes about 72W - that last northern most portion of DR sticking out - she will quickly gain latitude away from land and that is when the south side of the storm will really fill in and wind up.

Until then modest steady strengthening should be expected. After then is where I think she could really intensify - if conditions permit of course.

I will say this.. Hurricane can be attracted to Hispaniola.. Take Hanna in 2008 for example, was forecast to move north of the Island, instead it was drawn into the Island. I will not be surprised if Irene is drawn a bit into Hispaniola, then back in the water, entering the Bahamas.
7898. Ryuujin
Stop Quoting Lucreto

He is a TROLL and nothing more.

- and ignore him and be on your way.
Quoting Grandpato4:


Where are you getting this information? I do not see any of this while monitoring recon.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:07:00 N Lon : 67:33:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.9 degrees
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Go here and select all the models, step it out to the final frame which is for 25/12. It depicts 500mb ht

You can see why FL is not in the clear.

Link


they all show a direct hit her in south florida i am confused now
Based in the last few frames of the IR3 sat, it looks like she is sluffing off her outer bands again and concentrating on her center.

Just popped in to see how she was doing this morning. Will be back later to catch up. Hopefully Dr. Masters updates, so we have fresh space to postulate.
Quoting FLdewey:


I will... if Irene kills me I am totally going to blame him.


you've always been more of a grudge holder than me.
Quoting Grothar:



What do you think of the GFDL solution?



I do not like that GFDL, I do not like that GFDL (sorry was reading green eggs and ham to the kids last night)
A lot of things are coming into play and I think that she will weaken due the the dry air and possible land interaction. IMO there is still a chance for further track shift to the West. I won't be convinced until I see the GFDL model trend to the East. Recall when that model IS RIGHT. It has been dead on.
7888 ..

Just was about to post that same kind of thing. Need to look at it some more. I think it was the NAM a couple of days ago that pegged that cut-off low, too.
7906. snotly
what if we put a bunch of tubes in the way of Irene and funnel off some of her energy?
Quoting Ryuujin:
What I'm more concerned with is that in the WV imaging is that Low looks like it might transition into a cutoff low and then all bets are off on how Irene will react with it, because models can't deal with cutoff lows. Anyone else seeing that in the last few frames over the CONUS?


Your so called cut off low is high tailing it to the Canadian Maritimes and then North out over the Atlantic up and over the Ridge. This is why I think the NHC keeps FL in the crosshairs. As soon as that Ridge builds back in the further West she's going to go IMO.
Quoting Grandpato4:


Where are you getting this information? I do not see any of this while monitoring recon.
Easy Grandpa,don't listen to him,he likes attention and it is not in your best interest!
7909. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:


you've always been more of a grudge holder than me.


Hey, nobody want a Cheetos ghost following them around for life.
Quoting depalma13:


The storm is not ragged at all. It's out of radar coverage. If anything it is getting stronger around the core.

Please don't quote the troll(s). Do not respond to the troll(s). Do not feed the troll(s). If we ignore the troll(s), they will go bother someone else on some other blog (hopefully). Thanks. Shutters are now sorted and ready to place..just need a definite track. You all stay safe and have a great day.
Preparations are underway here in The Exumas. Although we historically do not get affected by hurricanes this time of year (last hurricane to impact Exuma was Lili in 1996), it definitely bears watching since it is coming from the south.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...
,wow jed used "the force"to calm down the entire state with one blog post,thats a powerful jedi ifvive ever seen one,mayb he's using his force to push irenen away,lol,youve ben reported!!
Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...


Oh crap, Master Chief you still around huh?
Quoting snotly:


STORMTOP OUT.. err, excuse me, I mean, cloudburst...


Put STORMTOP on ignore, err I mean cloudburst. Same goes for lucreto.
7916. P451
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:07:00 N Lon : 67:33:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.9 degrees



Please understand.

That line is to be ignored. The Weakening Flag has ALWAYS been on. I've seen it on when storms are undergoing RI.

I don't know why, but it always is, ignore it. ENTIRELY.

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Go here and select all the models, step it out to the final frame which is for 25/12. It depicts 500mb ht

You can see why FL is not in the clear.

Link

Thanks! That graphic made the reasons for the back and forth a lot clearer.
7918. FLdewey
tropicfreak shouldn't you be in school? Are you skipping for Irene?
Quoting Grothar:



What do you think of the GFDL solution?


The gfdl is slow with trends. With that being said, expect it to be caught up with the rest of the major models within the next 2-3 runs. It has already moved east, just slow to do so.
7921. hahaguy
Quoting P451:



Please understand.

That line is to be ignored. The Weakening Flag has ALWAYS been on. I've seen it on when storms are undergoing RI.

I don't know why, but it always is, ignore it. ENTIRELY.



Also why would she be weakening if the pressure dropped.
7922. 7544
nam shows land fall in so fla will the gfs follow later ?
WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.



What does this mean for florida... curious i am in ft lauderdale
7924. Ryuujin
Quoting 69Viking:


Your so called cut off low is high tailing it to the Canadian Maritimes and then North out over the Atlantic up and over the Ridge. This is why I think the NHC keeps FL in the crosshairs. As soon as that Ridge builds back in the further West she's going to go IMO.


Look at the bottom part of the trough. That is what is called a cut off Low, because it's being CUT OFF from the rest. If this happens then we have no idea how it will affect Irene. At least I do not, because cut off lows tend to act of their own accord
Quoting P451:



Please understand.

That line is to be ignored. The Weakening Flag has ALWAYS been on. I've seen it on when storms are undergoing RI.

I don't know why, but it always is, ignore it. ENTIRELY.



Makes no nevermind to me, i dont care either way i was just answering his question as to where to find that information. Also, I dont always see it ON but ok.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



AND U HAVE NO AUTHORITY SAYING IRENE WHICH IS GOING TO BE A CAT 2 BEARING DOWN ON FLA HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY FLA WILL GET NOTHING FROM IT...THATS A REAL ASSININE STATEMENT ON YOUR PART...I HAVE BEEN FORCASTING HURRICANES FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND I THINK YOU NEED TO LEARN THE TRICKS OF THE TRADE.....YOU HAVE CALMED DOWN THE WHOLE STATE OF FLA AND WHEN IRENE HITS I HOPE YOU ARE PROUD OF THE CASULTIES YOU ARE GOING TO CAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOOK YOUR WORD A 20 YEAR OLD WET BEHIND THE EAR KID...
Geez, man. Seriously, calm down. Is that guy a tv met? No, just a blogger, learning (and making mistakes). Does the entire state of Florida log in to Dr. Masters' blog and use our posts as gospel for a coming storm? Extremely doubtful. I can see that this blogger is riling you up. Be the better blogger and ignore him, he isn't worth you blowing a gasket in front of all the bloggers.
7927. Dunkman
Dvorak isn't incredibly useful when we have radar and recon...just saying.
floodman ... if you are still here. new to the blog, been lurking for a long time. been trying to introduce myself to the civil and respectful posters on the blog. btw i always need a good laugh or two myself. no better place to get that than on this blog, esp on a monday
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:07:00 N Lon : 67:33:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -72.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.9 degrees
The weakening flag is always on right?
Quoting chevycanes:

sure is.

what Bahamian Island are you on again?
New Providence, aka "Big City Island"... lol... small eye-shaped island midway between Andros and Eleuthera... population centre of the country, as about 300,000 of the approximately 350,000 residents live here.
Quoting lucreto:
LOCATION...19.3N 67.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...172 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...108 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


Wow only 65 mph now?
Quoting Grandpato4:


Wow only 65 mph now?


No....that is false information.
Quoting Grandpato4:


Wow only 65 mph now?

it's a fake. don't pay attention to what he posts.
7937. wxhatt
I hope those whom are spatting at the mouth over model details have done their homework as Dr. Master's suggested the other day on his blog.

Here is the link:

Tropical Cyclone Track Guidence used by the NHC


Fair warning, some may find it somewhat technical or boring. I found it very helpful.

Thank you Dr. Masters

:)
Quoting lucreto:


That is my prediction it's not official.


I am sorry, but posting official looking information that is only a guess should be grounds for an immediate ban. I am reporting that post.
Quoting Ryuujin:


Look at the bottom part of the trough. That is what is called a cut off Low, because it's being CUT OFF from the rest. If this happens then we have no idea how it will affect Irene. At least I do not, because cut off lows tend to act of their own accord


I guess I'm not seeing it. The only low I see spinning is the Low that is NW of Maine and heading NE. The only other spin I see across the U.S. is that High that it's death grip on Texas.
7943. FLdewey
I think South Florida will begin to leave the cone of uncertainty today.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Stop making things up.

One more in my Ignore list.
Many already have him on ignore.
Quoting Grandpato4:


I am sorry, but posting official looking information that is only a guess should be grounds for an immediate ban. I am reporting that post.
And use your ignore button. Once no one quotes him/her, they will go away. :)
Quoting Ryuujin:

STOP QUOTING LUCRETO

He is a TROLL that posts false info! Stop quoting him or get reported as a troll as well!

How hard is that to understand?


I am sorry. It is hard for me to discerne between real posts and trolls sometimes. I am also having trouble keeping up with the blog at all.
7947. P451
NEW BLOG








NEW BLOG















NEW BLOG
7948. lucreto
Quoting AegirsGal:
Many already have him on ignore.


Unfairly because I once posted an IR image of supertyphoon ZEB and once made a remark about EPAC cane Kenna. This blog is so Atlantic-biased I immediately found myself on 56% of ignore lists.
Irene back at 80mph, 988mb.
Looks like she's still at 80mph.
Quoting P451:
West half of the storm is out of radar reach. Now we're in the dark structure wise until Cuba begins to pick her up.

Their radars aren't the best however.

Our radar has been "down" for at least 3 years... just meaning they have no intention of internet broadcasts beginning again any time soon :o(
Quoting FLdewey:
I think South Florida will begin to leave the cone of uncertainty today.


Agreed...but they will leave a tiny coastal area of SE Florida in the cone just to mess with people! ;-)
Quoting FLdewey:
I think South Florida will begin to leave the cone of uncertainty today.


is there a Cone of Certainty that they will transition to?

Cones of Uncertainty would be a great name for a band or a softball team.
7954. P451
NEW BLOG








NEW BLOG









NEW BLOG












NEW BLOG
7955. FLdewey
Very cool GOES loop of the evolution of IRENE:

Link

Schweet!
7956. Ryuujin
Quoting 69Viking:


I guess I'm not seeing it. The only low I see spinning is the Low that is NW of Maine and heading NE. The only other spin I see across the U.S. is that High that it's death grip on Texas.


It doesn't have a spin of it's own, it's just the tail end of the spin you are seeing. Its just that if that bit gets cutoff then it can develop. Didn't say it would, but a good ole cutoff low would be a monkey wrench in the works, that's for sure
7957. wxhatt
Quoting 7544:
nam shows land fall in so fla will the gfs follow later ?


The NAM (North American Model) should not be relied upon for Tropical Systems. It is only used for short term forcasting.
Major Hurricane by Thursday. SC nowin the crosshairs.
Quoting oceanblues32:


they all show a direct hit her in south florida i am confused now
,some wrap around ridging going on,with the high to her east pushing her west or wnw
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2011 hurricane season has now been canceled. Due to the behavior on the blog we will now take down Irene and remove the storm from the Atlantic. Please return for the 2012 season, have a nice day.


No refunds. Next year before registering must present certificate of completion for "Plays well with others" course

Today, August 22, 2011, 33 minutes ago
August 22, 2011 9:50 am EDT
Location: 23.838N 68.333W
Wind Direction: ENE (70°)
Wind Speed: 17.5 knots
Wind Gust: 19.4 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Average Period: 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in (1014.2 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.00 in (+0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 84.4°F (29.1°C)
Dew Point: 77.4°F (25.2°C)
Water Temperature: 84.2°F (29.0°C)


This bouy is already seeing gusts close to 20....
Quoting wxhatt:
Quoting TampaBayWX:
How is it that many expert weather scientists across many countries, combined years and years of experience, hundreds of powerful computer systems, and access to all the data from hurricane hunters, satellites, buoys, and ship vessels since the 1800's DO NOT know where the hurricane is going....

Yet people sitting online at home on their couch eating cereal in their PJ's KNOW exactly where the hurricane will make land fall?

How does that add up?

I don't understand.


I don't either. When I first got on this blog and was chainsawed by some on my comments of those whom may only have their GED equivilent, I was flabbergasted.
I could at least say I have completed college course in Meteorology with a heavy cirriculum in math and science.

Go figure, LOL.


Truer words have never been spoken!
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221503
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE SHOULD BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting PaulinJax:
Today, August 22, 2011, 33 minutes ago
August 22, 2011 9:50 am EDT
Location: 23.838N 68.333W
Wind Direction: ENE (70°)
Wind Speed: 17.5 knots
Wind Gust: 19.4 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Average Period: 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in (1014.2 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.00 in (+0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 84.4°F (29.1°C)
Dew Point: 77.4°F (25.2°C)
Water Temperature: 84.2°F (29.0°C)


This bouy is already seeing gusts close to 20....
Where's this?
Quoting Grothar:



What do you think of the GFDL solution?

I *think* GFDL is having issues with building/sustaining convection early in the run, soon after initialization. As a result, the model allows too much westward movement before developing Irene enough for mid to upper level steering and Beta effect to take hold.

JMO.
Quoting Grandpato4:


I am sorry, but posting official looking information that is only a guess should be grounds for an immediate ban. I am reporting that post.
,unfortunatle the poster is a repeat offender and likekly has a mental disorder(seriously), he should be ignored and as i stated we just need to "understand" that its probably not his fault and he has a condition,it is a public blog and these things will happen;)
I bekieve it is way too early to make a statement that the threat to S. Florida is lessened. but that's Avila..there are too many variables..obviouly no watches for Florida with Avila on.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221504
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST
CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND
THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN
FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING
A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Poor Bahamas.... I feel for you guys. I hope you all stay safe!
Intersting note Ref. 11AM Advisory ....

Public Advisory - Movement stated as 300 degrees
Discussion - Movement stated as 295 degrees
Irene might miss the U.S.
Quoting charlottefl:


I don't know whether a WNW orientation is possible. A S-N orientation is possible if the high to the E were to build in more, of if the storm stayed weaker..
Thanks. I meant the direction of the storm...wnw but thanks.
Quoting WxLogic:


"Good Solution" statement was not to imply that is set in stone, but to convey a favorable track for everyone. Hope that takes care of your inquietude on that part.
I wasn't really worried at all about it, just commenting on your word choice there. Thanks.