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Dangerous Hurricane Sandy continues north past North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

Hurricane Sandy has changed little in intensity today, and remains a very large, powerful hurricane. Sandy is going to cause billions of dollars in damage Monday and Tuesday in the Eastern U.S. due to storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains. Sandy is of near record-size, with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 520 miles from its center, covering an area larger than a Texas-and-a-half. This afternoon, Sandy brought winds gusting to 64 mph at Cape Hatteras, NC, 60 mph at Kitty Hawk, NC, and 60 mph at Cape Henry, VA. Sandy's rain is onshore from North Carolina to New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Jacksonville, NC and Suffolk, NC have recorded 2 inches of rain today, Greenville, NC has seen 1.6 inches, and Ahoskie, NC has seen 1.5 inches.

With peak impact still 24 to 36 hours away, water levels are already 2 - 4 feet above normal from Virginia to New York. At 4 pm EDT, Lewes, Delaware was at 3.3 feet above normal, Cape May, New Jersey was at 3.1 feet above normal, Wachapreague, Virginia was at 3.6 feet above normal, and Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel station was at 3.6 feet above normal, up more than half a foot since 10:30am. The National Weather Service in Upton, New York mentioned today that the predicted maximum water level of 11.7 feet at The Battery in New York City, which is expected to occur at 8:13pm ET on Monday, would break the record of 10.5 feet which was set on September 15, 1960 in Hurricane Donna.

In a poignant, powerful Public Information Statement this afternoon, the National Weather Service in New Jersey is begging that people heed warnings, and evacuate if they are asked to. They write, "If you are reluctant [to evacuate], think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if you do not survive."


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Sandy on October 28, 2012.

Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Most of Sandy's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. However, satellite loops show Sandy is steadily looking more tropical, with heavy thunderstorms increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 - 40 knots last night to 20 - 25 knots this afternoon. Wind shear is expected to remain near 20 knots until landfall, and Sandy will be traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. These factors may allow Sandy to intensify by 5 - 10 mph over the next 24 hours. Sandy does not have time to build a complete eyewall and undergo rapid intensification. By Monday afternoon, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down intensification by pulling heat energy our of the ocean. However, the trough of low pressure that will be sucking in Sandy to the northwest towards landfall will strengthen the storm by injecting "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 - 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy's central pressure is expected to drop from its current 953 mb to 945 - 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94") measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great "Long Island Express" hurricane. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) computer model runs show a little faster motion for Sandy, bringing the center ashore in New Jersey Monday evening near 8 pm EDT.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 9.7 - 10.8'. Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: these are not an official NHC storm surge forecast.


Figure 3. Predicted and forecast water level for Atlantic City, NJ. The dark red line is the observation, rom the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Sandy's storm surge a huge threat
This afternoon's 3:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be at least a foot higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

Sandy's winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 - 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.

Sandy's rains
Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011, Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain, which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

We'll have an update on Sandy Monday morning.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Buoy observations SE of Long Island are showing sustained winds of 90 MPH and gusts of 125 MPH
Quoting CybrTeddy:


May be enough to push this to Category 2 status, as we're at 90mph per ATCF, plus the recon found several non-contaminated SFMR readings of 98mph.


90kt??? that's 105 mph.
I don't see that in ATCF...I see 80kt. but you're about right bumping Sandy to cat 2

1229 UTC
AL, 18, 2012102912, , BEST, 0, 367N, 709W, 80, 946, HU, 34
From recon:

940.4 mb
(~ 27.77 inHg)
Quoting Twinkster:
Buoy observations SE of Long Island are showing sustained winds of 90 MPH and gusts of 125 MPH


really?
so sandy went from 75mph when I went too bed to all most a cat 2 that's not good
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


90kt??? that's 105 mph.
I don't see that in ATCF...I see 80kt. but you're about right bumping Sandy to cat 2

1229 UTC
AL, 18, 2012102912, , BEST, 0, 367N, 709W, 80, 946, HU, 34


I said miles per hour, or mph.

80kts = 90mph.
Lewes, DE Just had a crest of 8.63 feet.

Kings Port NY currently at 9 feet, with a forecasted crest of 12.5' @ noon today.



The Battery, NY currently at 9 feet, with a forecasted crest of 11' @ around midnight tonight...



Atlantic City, NJ currently just over 8' and will crest agian around 10pm tonight at just under 10'.

this is just blowing mi mind

Time: 14:15:30Z
Coordinates: 37.4833N 71.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.9 mb (~ 20.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,627 meters (~ 8,619 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 940.4 mb (~ 27.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 23 at 6 knots (From the NNE at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 14.4C (~ 57.9F)
Dew Pt: 12.5C (~ 54.5F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)"

by the way...a 44 mph peak here in my location
anybody know how it went for that cruise ship that was leaving ny harbor yesterday evening and going out into 30 ft seas?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
CRAZY LOW PRESSURE but dry air is gobbling this storm up. Not much to look at on satellite but an incredibly large windfield. What a storm!


Not really, it's actually intensified.
1511. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
geez going to be lots of those kinds of pics before this is all over huh


it hasnt even made landfall yet..

1512. LargoFl




Station DEMO2 - NDBC Demo Glider #2

Owned and maintained by Liquid Robotics
Test station
39.600 N 71.700 W (3936'0" N 7142'0" W)
Who would've have guessed that the worst storm of the season would have the letter "S"? I guess we still haven't learn a lesson from Wilma... strong storms CAN forms at ANYTIME during hurricane seasons.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I said miles per hour, or mph.

80kts = 90mph.


whoops sorry...Im just shaking as I type here.. plus feeling some chilly air coming by my room window....

You are right teddy.
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Currently 94 mph sustained winds at DEMO2 bouy.


Is this a buoy, or a drone??
Just watching some NY live stream, water comming ashore is crazy already and the storm is around 310 miles away. Think the east coast is in more trouble than they think. Yikes.

Link
now that sandy has or is going too have 90mph winds there is going too be hvy damg too new York
We need a Levi update!!!!
Guess the models weren't out to lunch like many were claiming about this possibly going sub 940mb, will probably do so later today.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW i know it 384HR out but 32'F in N FL on that


Our low tonight in Fort Walton Beach is forecast to be 38. Last winter was warm but it maybe a cold one this year with some big time storms.
940.4mb... It keeps on strengthening. It is lower than when Sandy was a 110-mph hurricane!
Could be worse, imagine it stalls before landfall.
Quoting Tazmanian:
now that sandy has or is going too have 90mph winds there is going too be hvy damg too new York


Elevated structures especially. Before you got on here about 2 hours back, they have already stated that Hurricane Hunters have found winds of 90-100 knots about 1200-2500 feet above the surface on the south side of the center.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
We need a Levi update!!!!




hes likey sleeping
3-D TRMM pass of Sandy yesterday.
This doesn't have anything to do with Sandy but still scary:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
LOUISVILLE METROSAFE.

LOUISVILLE METROSAFE NOW ASKS THAT PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN A TWO AND
A HALF MILE RADIUS OF DIXIE HIGHWAY AND KATHERINE STATION ROAD
SHELTER IN PLACE UNTIL THE ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN. A TRAIN CARRYING
HAZARDOUS CHEMICALS DERAILED NEAR THAT LOCATION EARLIER THIS
MORNING
. TO SHELTER IN PLACE...CLOSE ALL DOORS AND WINDOWS AND
TURN OFF ANY SYSTEM THAT PULLS IN OUTSIDE AIR. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.

$$
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Elevated structures especially. Before you got on here about 2 hours back, they have already stated that Hurricane Hunters have found winds of 90-100 knots about 1200-2500 feet above the surface on the south side of the center.



wow this is going too be stronger then are I storm last year the I storm was weaking has it made land fall in new York the S storm is getting stronger as it comes in too new york
1531. jpsb
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Lewes, DE Just had a crest of 8.63 feet.

Kings Port NY currently at 9 feet, with a forecasted crest of 12.5' @ noon today.



The Battery, NY currently at 9 feet, with a forecasted crest of 11' @ around midnight tonight...


I used to live there, lots of homes will be going under water with a crest of 12.5 feet, very bad news.
Quoting leftlink:


Is this a buoy, or a drone??


http://ndbc-load.nws.noaa.gov/station_page.php?st ation=demo2&ts=1344780000
levi nailed this system a wk ago i have forgot debbies fiasco.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess the models weren't out to lunch like many were claiming about this possibly going sub 940mb, will probably do so later today.


Actually in hindsight, the models actually preformed better on this storm than any other storm of this season wouldn't you say? About the only exception was the explosive deepening just before Cuba.
1535. LargoFl
just checked a blog, lots of flooding in NJ already
It's broken 940:

939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)
1537. MahFL
Cold cold cloutops now.

Son of -- wow!
939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's broken 940:

939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)



oh boy RI right be for land fall
939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)

Sub-940... I guess the models were not exaggerating.
My barometer has dropped 3mb in the last 50 mins.
She's coming.
Quoting 69Viking:


Our low tonight in Fort Walton Beach is forecast to be 38. Last winter was warm but it maybe a cold one this year with some big time storms.


Struggling with wanting to turn on the heat...

Son is just south of Philly in NJ along the Delaware Bay and said a little while ago that Sandy's being hyped to Mad Max proportions, but he's not too worried. I asked him to stay in touch.
Zone B should have been evacuated.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Son of -- wow!
939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)


stunning...not even Irene did this
000
URNT15 KNHC 291426
AF302 2318A SANDY HDOB 53 20121029
141600 3727N 07135W 6965 02625 9402 +152 +123 336008 010 045 006 00
141630 3726N 07135W 6982 02608 9415 +141 +129 303014 017 041 006 00
141700 3724N 07134W 6959 02639 9403 +157 +123 289025 033 043 004 00
141730 3722N 07134W 6977 02623 9391 +184 +091 269033 035 043 004 03
141800 3721N 07132W 6967 02639 9407 +171 +083 257037 038 039 002 00
141830 3719N 07131W 6958 02656 9408 +176 +074 246037 039 037 003 00
141900 3718N 07129W 6970 02645 9426 +161 +089 244040 041 036 002 00
141930 3717N 07127W 6967 02649 9431 +156 +096 238043 045 037 003 00
142000 3716N 07125W 6967 02651 9436 +155 +086 239045 046 036 002 00
142030 3714N 07124W 6967 02658 9442 +155 +090 235044 044 035 002 00
142100 3713N 07122W 6966 02664 9448 +155 +086 232046 047 034 004 00
142130 3712N 07120W 6970 02661 9449 +155 +082 230044 045 036 002 00
142200 3711N 07119W 6966 02669 9454 +153 +081 232046 046 034 003 00
142230 3709N 07117W 6963 02674 9457 +155 +070 230047 048 033 003 00
142300 3708N 07115W 6967 02675 9473 +142 +072 232048 049 033 002 00
142330 3707N 07114W 6967 02678 9481 +137 +079 233046 046 033 003 00
142400 3706N 07112W 6966 02684 9483 +140 +074 234046 046 032 003 00
142430 3705N 07110W 6970 02684 9487 +140 +076 233046 046 034 002 00
142500 3703N 07109W 6963 02694 9491 +139 +073 233046 047 034 002 00
142530 3703N 07109W 6963 02694 9497 +135 +075 233046 047 034 003 00

so, extrapolated 939.1 mb. That's not VDM, but even lower than before.

1546. LargoFl
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Actually in hindsight, the models actually preformed better on this storm than any other storm of this season wouldn't you say? About the only exception was the explosive deepening just before Cuba.
yes the sure did..even the Nam was on the mark
1547. help4u
lol!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess the models weren't out to lunch like many were claiming about this possibly going sub 940mb, will probably do so later today.


Been watching model error specific to Sandy all along. Overall the models have done better with her than about any other storm this season, including intensity. The extra dropsondes helped but even early on before those, the models got her alot better than many of the other storms this season.
1549. LargoFl
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Son of -- wow!
939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg)
if this keeps up, that superstorm handle just might apply
Quoting LargoFl:
yes the sure did..even the Nam was on the mark


This was the NAM's best performance all year.
Quoting txag91met:
Zone B should have been evacuated.




I don't think any one was forcast this being a 90mph storm
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh boy RI right be for land fall

IMO, a hurricane/tropical storm warning should be issued immediately, even if it's strengthening by baroclinic forces.
Quoting jpsb:
I used to live there, lots of homes will be going under water with a crest of 12.5 feet, very bad news.


Just about everywhere north of Atlantic City up to the New York Battery is expecting a 10-12' surge. And you can bet that there will be anywhere from 10-30 foot waves on top of that. I hope people got prepared, I think they did. Irene should have brought a lot of awareness back and she was "just" a tropical storm at landfall up there. This storm demands much more respect than Irene ever deserved.
1554. ncstorm
943 mb..90 mph..according to TWC
A worst case flooding scenario is rapidly unfolding for the NE- Mid-Atlantic as the storm intensifies and reports start to come in.

Remember to donate what you can to relief organizations in the coming weeks.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Its Bizarre when a Blizzard is associated with a Hurricane...



BLIZZARRE!
1557. ARiot
Posted before but:

If you have DirecTV, channel 349 will be pulling from all the impacted areas local news coverage.

Good to keep up with friends, family or see your old areas if you used to live in the region.

I don't know if the Dish Network folks or the big Cable Companies will do the same.

I think it's a good public service myself.

Take Care....
1558. LargoFl
• Many roads are flooded in uptown Atlantic City, particularly northeast of the new Revel casino. Numerous cars are in water, some up to the hood. The ocean is spilling over the sea wall in some places.

• Casinos in Atlantic City shut down, as ordered by the state, and had to be emptied of all gamblers, partiers and hotel guests by 4 p.m. Sunday. Few remained this afternoon as workers shooed away the stragglers.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
CRAZY LOW PRESSURE but dry air is gobbling this storm up. Not much to look at on satellite but an incredibly large windfield. What a storm!


wat
I introduce you....The Perfect Storm
Recon just had a dropsonde with 941.5 pressure.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT.......420NE 330SE 400SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 995SE 840SW 360NW.

It would be interesting if the number in bold reaches four digits.
Quoting Bradenton:


BLIZZARRE!

It's a blizzicane!
Wow
90mph
943mb...
1565. djdanik
they just said in TWC, 943 pressure and 90MPH storm.
Sad news as the HMS Bounty has sunk with potentially 2 to 3 lives lost in the ravages of Hurricane Sandy.

I've been aboard this wonderfull ship 2 or 3 times when it visited my local harbour. She was truly glorious.

A great loss for us Canadians.

Henry
Quoting Bobbyweather:

IMO, a hurricane/tropical storm warning should be issued immediately, even if it's strengthening by baroclinic forces.


Pointless at this stage. Even if the hurricane warnings did influence anybody, it's far too late to act on it now.


Funktop Red
1569. kwgirl
Quoting yonzabam:
Frankenstorm is moving towards the coast at 20 mph, which is a pretty good clip. I know that this is considered a 'good thing' with a 'regular' hurricane, because it will scoot past its landfall, instead of lingering and doing more damage. The extra wind speed from the fast forward motion is a negative, but the fact that the hurricane doesn't hang around seems to be more important.

With a system as huge as this, does the same thing apply? Seems to me it'll be driving its surge all the more powerfully on to land and that will increase wave height and damage potential. Any views?
I was told re: Wilma, that the faster a hurricane moves, the more water it pushes in front of it.
This is all just beginning folks, the real deal is coming tonight. Good luck, God bless. She's gonna bomb out coming ashore.
1571. ncstorm
Stephanie Abrams and Jim Cantore..one trying to be Mr. Doom and she trying to find some saving grace in Sandy..
The southern dry air wedge, and the high speed of the medium or low level clouds compared to the upper clouds, makes it look like a high definition, cross sectional view of the storm. Awesome!
If Sandy is causing this much damage, imagine a Category 3... Hopefully this is a wake up call for the future hurricanes.
It took a weatherman with guts to stand up and shame Bloomberg into ordering evacuations. The same is needed to get the NHC to change this ridiculous high wind warning to a hurricane warning!
"Storm surge is already at Irene levels" - NY Gov Cuomo
18L/PTH/S/CXX
1578. LargoFl
Quoting Bobbyweather:

IMO, a hurricane/tropical storm warning should be issued immediately, even if it's strengthening by baroclinic forces.


Hurricane warnings don't warn of the cold & snow for some to come. It was decided before hand to treat it as a gale for the NE from begin to end to keep any info from being lost in a switch from one responsibility to the other.
1580. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:


look at the moisture rotating back in NC..farther south..is this thing getting bigger again ?
The Weather Channel has Sandy's winds up to 90 mph. with a pressure of 943 mb. Link
There is a rapidly developing convection area near the center... It is still acting like a hurricane. Again does someone have a gulf stream plot so we can see when the transition to cool water will occur?

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291439
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west southwestwards, and lays centered near 9.0N 83.0E, or about 550 km south-southeast of Chennai, India and 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee Sri Lanka. the system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west southwestwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31stst October.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is t 2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 4.0N and 13.5N and west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has remained same with respect to height and organization during past 06 hrs. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the sea is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50 - 80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has remained same during past 6 hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north, middle and upper tropospheric steering winds suggest west southwestward movement initially and thereafter northwestward movement.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.5N 82.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 10.5N 81.2E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
1585. LargoFl
with we here witnessing weather History being made today, my guess is in years to come..all midlantic storms from now on..will be compared to Sandy..no more irene etc..THIS storm is so amazing and new..and..keeps on getting stronger
Dr. M. talked about long-term effects of water level rise and the need for the NE to shore up coastal areas against rising sea levels in the coming decades last year. This experience is going to accelerate this process; hopefully the policy planners will keep this issue on the front burner in the coming years in the aftermath of this storm.
Holland and Battery Tunnels to Close at 2 P.M.
The Holland Tunnel and the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel will close at 2 p.m., Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said.

1588. JNCali
Not a good sail day... I think some one mentioned a cruise ship heading into this earlier.. I assume they where going to head down to Miami...
Link
Hi everyone. It has been a bit since I lasted posted. I have deployed to Lakehurst, NJ. I am hunkered down riding out the storm in Tom's River. The winds are howling but the rain is relatively light right now. I am from MS so the winds are not an issue but the cold....brrrrr! It makes working in this mess miserable. My heart goes out to the poor people who live here. I will try to post and let everyone know how it is going. Well....as long as tthe internet and the power lasts. My prayers go out to the survivors in the affected areas and just know that we are here to help you through this time! It is heartbreaking to lose everything you own but as long as you live through it, you can rebuild! Take care, be safe, and make good choices.
I said last night it wasn't like Sandy is going to jump to 90mph, well it has, but it's not gonna jump to 100mph.
Sea Surface Temperatures.
1592. LargoFl
Quoting Stormbugn:
Hi everyone. It has been a bit since I lasted posted. I have deployed to Lakehurst, NJ. I am hunkered down riding out the storm in Tom's River. The winds are howling but the rain is relatively light right now. I am from MS so the winds are not an issue but the cold....brrrrr! It makes working in this mess miserable. My heart goes out to the poor people who live here. I will try to post and let everyone know how it is going. Well....as long as tthe internet and the power lasts. My prayers go out to the survivors in the affected areas and just know that we are here to help you through this time! It is heartbreaking to lose everything you own but as long as you live through it, you can rebuild! Take care, be safe, and make good choices.
thank you and good luck and stay safe
We are all under forecasting this storm apparently, and may even go higher than NHC storm surge totals
Quoting leftlink:
There is a rapidly developing convection area near the center... It is still acting like a hurricane. Again does someone have a gulf stream plot so we can see when the transition to cool water will occur?






Click on image and turn on SSTs, she's going over the warmest SSTs right about now.
1595. jpsb
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If Sandy is causing this much damage, imagine a Category 3... Hopefully this is a wake up call for the future hurricanes.
Sandy is pretty much the worst case, considering her size, strength and heading. She is creating a 800 mile fetch perpendicular to the shore line. Hard to imagine worst then that.
Quoting Stormbugn:
Hi everyone. It has been a bit since I lasted posted. I have deployed to Lakehurst, NJ. I am hunkered down riding out the storm in Tom's River. The winds are howling but the rain is relatively light right now. I am from MS so the winds are not an issue but the cold....brrrrr! It makes working in this mess miserable. My heart goes out to the poor people who live here. I will try to post and let everyone know how it is going. Well....as long as tthe internet and the power lasts. My prayers go out to the survivors in the affected areas and just know that we are here to help you through this time! It is heartbreaking to lose everything you own but as long as you live through it, you can rebuild! Take care, be safe, and make good choices.


Hunkered down in Toms River too...Stay safe!
1597. ncstorm
Earthquake in SC?..Can anyone confirm
1598. LargoFl
NO LONGER ACCESSIBLE...

i'm still wanting to know what happened to that cruise ship cantore spotted leaving harbor last night in nyc
DEMO2 bouy:

Winds at 94 mph gusting to 132 mph!
1602. MrMixon
Quoting playapics:
Sad news as the HMS Bounty has sunk with potentially 2 to 3 lives lost in the ravages of Hurricane Sandy.

I've been aboard this wonderfull ship 2 or 3 times when it visited my local harbour. She was truly glorious.

A great loss for us Canadians.

Henry


Wow... I just read the story here. Tragic that two are missing and a beautiful ship was lost. Why on earth would they have set sail? Did nobody check the weather first?


Quoting yonzabam:
Frankenstorm is moving towards the coast at 20 mph, which is a pretty good clip. I know that this is considered a 'good thing' with a 'regular' hurricane, because it will scoot past its landfall, instead of lingering and doing more damage. The extra wind speed from the fast forward motion is a negative, but the fact that the hurricane doesn't hang around seems to be more important.

With a system as huge as this, does the same thing apply? Seems to me it'll be driving its surge all the more powerfully on to land and that will increase wave height and damage potential. Any views?
I was told re: Wilma, that the faster a hurricane moves, the more water it pushes in front of it.


"Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles." - Dr. M
132mph gust offshore....piling water into the east coast....danger ahead
1605. LargoFl
Ocean city NJ
Tropical storm force winds now affecting areas from southern North Carolina all the way to southern Maine. Man, this thing is HUGE. Stay safe everyone in it's path!

1607. sprague
Using the WV loop on University of Washington website, it looks like the clouds from the storm go from central North Carolina to the island just North of Labrador. A rough estimate is 30 degrees of latitude or just over 2,000 miles. From east to west it goes from just east of Sandy eye to Wisconsin. Amazing.
Quoting JNCali:
Not a good sail day... I think some one mentioned a cruise ship heading into this earlier.. I assume they where going to head down to Miami...
Link


I was watching several lastnight. They were ordered out of the harbors. Many looked like they parked in deeper water to ride it out. The site we follow & track them by sailwx.com is down right now.
Quoting Skyepony:


Hurricane warnings don't warn of the cold & snow for some to come. It was decided before hand to treat it as a gale for the NE from begin to end to keep any info from being lost in a switch from one responsibility to the other.

I know, I must've over-hyped. Since Sandy strengthened.
1610. ncstorm
it was in NC..

Earthquakes
Hazards
Learn
Prepare
Monitoring
Research

M2.9 - 10km S of West Marion, North Carolina 2012-10-29 11:49:05 UTC
Quoting ncstorm:
Earthquake in SC?..Can anyone confirm
Not me here in Raleigh. Didn't feel a thing.
1612. guygee
Quoting RitaEvac:
I said last night it wasn't like Sandy is going to jump to 90mph, well it has, but it's not gonna jump to 100mph.
Moving the goalposts, nicely done;-)
1613. Kumo
Quoting RitaEvac:
I introduce you....The Perfect Storm


Similar circumstances and the one in '91 only hit 972 mbar.

Link

This one is certainly going to closely match the nightmare scenario meteorologists have been warning us about for years...

Hope folks have plenty of emergency supplies and were able to prepare as much as humanly possible. This one is sure to have far reaching social and economic impacts.

Stay safe and God bless.
1614. JNCali
Quoting MrMixon:


Wow... I just read the story here. Tragic that two are missing and a beautiful ship was lost. Why on earth would they have set sail? Did nobody check the weather first?

I'm sure they assumed they wouldn't lose power and be able to stay out of the worst of the storm..
Quoting ncstorm:
Earthquake in SC?..Can anyone confirm


USGS has a 2.9 in NC about 3 hours ago. Nothing recent in the area.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I introduce you....The Perfect Storm
You mean "I introduce TO you..."
1617. LargoFl
Islip Long island........
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


Link to Public Advisory
1619. ncstorm
Quoting HurricaneTracker01:
Tropical storm force winds now affecting areas from southern North Carolina all the way to southern Maine. Man, this thing is HUGE. Stay safe everyone in it's path!



I ask this yesterday that when Sandy moved back in that areas that were out of the tropical storm warnings would probably have to be put back under since this is such a large storm..
Quoting ncstorm:
it was in NC..

Earthquakes
Hazards
Learn
Prepare
Monitoring
Research

M2.9 - 10km S of West Marion, North Carolina 2012-10-29 11:49:05 UTC

At 7:49 this morning...

Magnitude 2.9
Date-Time

Monday, October 29, 2012 at 11:49:05 UTC
Monday, October 29, 2012 at 07:49:05 AM at epicenter

Location 35.611°N, 81.999°W
Depth 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Region NORTH CAROLINA
Distances

6 km (4 miles) SSE (160°) from West Marion, NC
8 km (5 miles) S (176°) from Marion, NC
16 km (10 miles) E (97°) from Old Fort, NC
115 km (72 miles) WNW (293°) from Charlotte, NC
301 km (187 miles) NE (46°) from Atlanta, GA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 2.3 km (1.4 miles)
Something to keep an eye on, the latest VDM showed the core really warming up. This is a sign that Sandy is definitely still tropical, and also usually a harbinger that the storm is intensifying. Unsurprisingly, the pressure has continued to fall this morning.
Quoting plutorising:
i'm still wanting to know what happened to that cruise ship cantore spotted leaving harbor last night in nyc


There she is :)))
Now's the time to settle and hunker down, folks.

Stay safe, everyone.
1624. Walshy
Appalachian State University in North Carolina this morning. Higher totals in high elevations. Main event yet to come.


Link
SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
1626. Asrock
Quoting JNCali:
Not a good sail day... I think some one mentioned a cruise ship heading into this earlier.. I assume they where going to head down to Miami...
Link


We where in Nassau as it came across cuba, we raced NW towards Florida to stay out of the main path of this storm.
A strenthening Sandy could be good for New England, because as storms intensify they tend to wind up and pull in the winds.
Atlantic City, this is getting bad and the storm isn't even at its worst yet.
1629. JNCali
Quoting Skyepony:


I was watching several lastnight. They were ordered out of the harbors. Many looked like they parked in deeper water to ride it out. The site we follow & track them by sailwx.com is down right now.

That would not be a fun job.. riding out 40+ foot swells for 36 hours
1630. Asrock
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not me here in Raleigh. Didn't feel a thing.




Nothing felt here in Charleston,SC by me at least
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

The buoy data off the coast in NJ and NY however seem to contradict that.


Bounty photo taken Saturday
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
I'm surprised Sandy is still intensifying.Like what the hell?.Local mets showing winds of 75-possibly 80mph here in the D.C metro area.How is this even possible!.
Quoting ncstorm:
Earthquake in SC?..Can anyone confirm
Today? North Carolina and Arkansas
Oh my God. I woke up late and I am seriously stunned to see her as a 90mph storm. And seeing all the flooding damage already..
1637. LargoFl
HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT.......420NE 330SE 400SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 995SE 840SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 150SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT...450NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.9N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 140SW 60NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.4N 77.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 41.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N 75.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 45.9N 72.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 47.5N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Skyepony:
Sea Surface Temperatures.


That cooler water doesn't span very far before the shoreline. And given the pace she's going now, those combined, the cooler waters probably won't effect her fast enough to weaken her much before landfall
From the WUnderground Facebook Page:

Quoting frecklespugsley:




Is that an M????
Quoting MrMixon:


Wow... I just read the story here. Tragic that two are missing and a beautiful ship was lost. Why on earth would they have set sail? Did nobody check the weather first?



Very sad. I suspect they thought they could go eastand around the storm but the breadth do sandy caught them. Yes, bad planning. I am surprised that a180' boat flounders in 18' seas and 40mph winds. Not to make light of it but I've been on a 50' sailboat in similar weather (a fast moving cold front and NOT a hurricane) and although it was uncomfortable it was not horrible or overly dangerous. Having never seen the boat, was it made of wood? May have sprung a plank that caused it to take on more water than the pumps could handle.

Very sad for the two lost....
1644. 1Zach1
Wind has defiantly picked up in Northern VA outside of DC, no crazy gusts yet but being 10floors up in a building that is completely glass has me less than thrilled. Anyone know the most update projections for winds here on the southern side of the DC-Metro area?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Bounty photo taken Saturday


Why on Earth would anyone go out with that kind of boat in seas that are so rough? Thoughts go out to the families of the missing, but you have to admit - this is just plain irresponsible!
Hurricane Sandy is switching partners and is now doing the Nor'Easter Bomb Dance.
Time to dig out the 1989 NCAR ERICA study, Experiment of Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones in the Atlantic.
Quoting Stormbugn:
Hi everyone. It has been a bit since I lasted posted. I have deployed to Lakehurst, NJ. I am hunkered down riding out the storm in Tom's River. The winds are howling but the rain is relatively light right now. I am from MS so the winds are not an issue but the cold....brrrrr! It makes working in this mess miserable. My heart goes out to the poor people who live here. I will try to post and let everyone know how it is going. Well....as long as tthe internet and the power lasts. My prayers go out to the survivors in the affected areas and just know that we are here to help you through this time! It is heartbreaking to lose everything you own but as long as you live through it, you can rebuild! Take care, be safe, and make good choices.


Thanks you Storm, as a Toms River resident I wish we could give you a warmer welcome. Thank you for all you do and please stay safe out there.
earthquake's.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
1650. Levi32
Note on DEMO2 data from NDBC:

"Glider data are not quality controlled by NDBC."

Hopefully its estimates are too high.
Quoting JNCali:

That would not be a fun job.. riding out 40+ foot swells for 36 hours


I've been on a ship around Cape Horn with 40 foot swells for a couple of days. If wasn't all that bad with the swells being smooth and regular. I can't imagine the swells being smooth and regular in a hurricane so wouldn't want to be on that ship.
1652. beell
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Chance of Storm Surge >= 8 feet (NGVD-1929) at individual locations
Hurricane Sandy (2012) Advisory 28
For the 77 hours from 05 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 to 10 AM EDT Thu Nov 01


October 29, 2012, full moon, the tidal coefficient may be an aggravating factor for the New York area!
1654. guygee


Convection near the center lighting up.
something tells me this is not going to be a fish storm...
October 29, 2012, full moon, the tidal coefficient may be an aggravating factor for the New York area!
Quoting skycycle:


Why on Earth would anyone go out with that kind of boat in seas that are so rough? Thoughts go out to the families of the missing, but you have to admit - this is just plain irresponsible!


Ironically, the safest place for a ship during a severe storm is "at sea". Makes no sense to get beat up while tied up at berth.

Henry
Quoting Pirate999:


Very sad. I suspect they thought they could go eastand around the storm but the breadth do sandy caught them. Yes, bad planning. I am surprised that a180' boat flounders in 18' seas and 40mph winds. Not to make light of it but I've been on a 50' sailboat in similar weather (a fast moving cold front and NOT a hurricane) and although it was uncomfortable it was not horrible or overly dangerous. Having never seen the boat, was it made of wood? May have sprung a plank that caused it to take on more water than the pumps could handle.

Very sad for the two lost....


The HMS Bounty was only 80ft long.

Quoting oracle28:
something tells me this is not going to be a fish storm...


My money is on a landfall just south of Corpus Christi.
Quoting playapics:


The HMS Bounty was only 80ft long.



The original Bounty was. At least one of the two reconstructions was 180 feet (notably enlarged). Not sure which of the reconstructions this is.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not me here in Raleigh. Didn't feel a thing.

M2.9 - 10km S of West Marion, North Carolina
Quoting KarenRei:


The original Bounty was. At least one of the two reconstructions was 180 feet (notably enlarged). Not sure which of the reconstructions this is.


This Nova Scotia built replica of the original "Bounty" completed in 1961 used in the original filming of the 1962 movie "Mutiny on the Bounty" was 80ft in length. She appeared in a number of box office movies since then including all of the three "Pirates of the Carribean" trilogy. She was a masterpiece of construction and I'm proud to say that I walked her decks.
Quoting beell:
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Chance of Storm Surge >= 8 feet (NGVD-1929) at individual locations
Hurricane Sandy (2012) Advisory 28
For the 77 hours from 05 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 to 10 AM EDT Thu Nov 01




Remember, a storm surge of just 5' can equal a storm tide of over 11'.
Quoting playapics:


Ironically, the safest place for a ship during a severe storm is "at sea". Makes no sense to get beat up while tied up at berth.

Henry
Knowing the ocean you would have never caught me on that ship at this time. Not a chance.
Just got a text from my sister in Brooklyn. She said the river is starting to come over the sea wall. She lives down in Redhook.
Franklin (from the NHC) on the Ed Schultz show now!
Quoting goosegirl1:




Mama Earth is grouchy today!
She started getting angry long ago...now she's blowing her top!