WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Dangerous Flood Potential in Texas, Oklahoma from Invest 91L

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2015

Residents of the Southern Plains need to keep a wary eye on tropical disturbance Invest 91L as it moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The storm is already bringing winds near tropical storm force over the northern Gulf of Mexico; the South Marsh 268 oil rig located about 50 miles south of the Central Louisiana coast measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 8:35 am CDT Monday morning. The Hurricane Hunters, flying at an elevation of 1000 feet, found flight level winds of up to 55 mph and surface winds in excess of tropical storm force (39+ mph) on the northeast side of 91L's center near 9:15 am EDT. Although 91L has tropical storm-force winds, the plane has not yet found a well-defined surface circulation, and the system did not qualify to be named Tropical Storm Bill by the National Hurricane Center on Monday morning. Satellite images showed that 91L's heavy thunderstorms have increased in intensity, and were beginning to consolidate near the low-level center of circulation, which was becoming much more defined. Wind shear on Monday morning was high, 15 - 25 knots, but rising air from 91L's thunderstorms should gradually erode the upper-level low situated above 91L, replacing it with an upper-level high that will help ventilate the developing cyclone. Sea-surface temperatures are increasingly warm ahead of 91L, with unusually high readings for mid-June of 28 – 30°C (82° – 86°F) located near the middle and upper Texas coast. These warm SSTs and the improved upper-level outflow should give 91L a brief window of potential intensification before landfall on Tuesday morning. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 80%. Landfall of 91L should occur Tuesday morning along the Texas coast, according to the 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.


Figure 1. Invest 91L approaching the coast of Texas as seen by the MODIS instrument at approximately 2:30 pm EDT June 15, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Regardless of whether or not 91L becomes Tropical Storm Bill before it makes landfall, the system will post a distinct threat of serious flooding over a broad swath from eastern Texas into Oklahoma. Both states just experienced the wettest single month in their history, and soils remain near saturation. Even without such a worrisome precondition, systems like 91L are notorious for producing enormous amount of rain, sometimes with tragic results. 91L has a large and very moist circulation, and steering currents will be weak as the system slowly moves around a strong, hot dome of high pressure over the Southeast. Slow-moving systems need not be intense prior to landfall to generate huge rainfalls once they’re inland, as demonstrated by a number of Gulf of Mexico systems during June and July, when upper flow is often listless. Tropical Storm Allison is a textbook example: in June 2001, Allison drifted into east Texas, then circled back southward and made a second landfall in Louisiana, dumping as much to 38” of rain over six days across parts of the Houston area. Catastrophic flooding from Allison killed at least 41 people and caused some $9 billion in damage. Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist with The Weather Channel, points out that three of the five wettest tropical cyclones on record for the U.S. mainland occurred in Texas, and none of them attained hurricane strength. These include Allison as well as Tropical Storm Claudette, which led to a national 24-hour rainfall record on July 25-26, 1979, near Alvin, Texas—an astounding 42 inches (possibly underreported by as much as three inches due to an overflowing gauge, according to NOAA).


Figure 2. Models generally agree on a track for 91L toward the central Texas coastline.


The projected track of 91L shifted notably westward in last night’s 0000Z model runs, which suggests a larger part of hard-hit eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma will end up on the much wetter right-hand side of the system. The atmospheric moisture content over southeast Texas is projected to be near record levels for mid-June. The juxtaposition of a slow-moving tropical system with preexisting soil saturation over this region is very unusual and particularly worrisome. Widespread rainfall of 2” – 5” is expected along 91L’s track (see Figure 3), and localized amounts beyond 10” are quite possible with training echoes, especially if the system slows as much as some models are suggesting it might. A flash flood watch is now in effect for parts of southeast Texas from Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. Tornadoes will also be a concern, including this evening over southeast Texas, as instability will be on the high side due to abundant moisture and very warm air at low levels.


Figure 3. Projected five-day precipitation totals from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, for the period from 8:00 am June 15 to June 20, show the expected track of 91L around the high-pressure center in the southeast U.S. Image credit: NWS/WPC

The “brown ocean effect” and how it could keep 91L going
Tropical cyclones normally dissipate soon after coming ashore, but research over the last few years has shown how it’s possible for a tropical cyclone to maintain its strength or even intensify over land. The most dramatic example is Tropical Storm Erin, which weakened to a depression after landfall on the Texas coast before unexpectedly strengthening over west central Oklahoma three days later. On the night of August 18-19, 2007. Erin’s central pressure dropped from 1007 to 995 mb, and its peak sustained surface winds jumped from less than 25 mph to around 60 mph. A 2011 study in Monthly Weather Review led by Clark Evans (now at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee) found that large amounts of latent heat being released from unusually wet soils appear to have helped boost the storm’s intensity, although Evans is continuing to investigate the role of other factors.


Figure 4. Data from the NEXRAD radar near Oklahoma City shows Tropical Storm Erin as it formed a small eye-like feature during intensification at 1000 GMT on August 19, 2007. Image credit: Clark Evans, Russ Schumacher, and Thomas Galarneau, “Sensitivity in the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) to Near-Surface Soil Moisture Characteristics,” Monthly Weather Review, doi:10.1175/2011MWR3593.1, American Meteorological Society, from NOAA/NWS data.


At the University of Georgia, Theresa Anderson and Marshall Shepherd carried out a NASA-funded global survey, published in 2013 in the International Journal of Climatology, of 227 tropical cyclones and their behavior after landfall between 1979 and 2008. While many of the cyclones dissipated in the usual fashion, and other went through extratropical transition, 16 held or increased their strength while inland. There were 8 in northwest Australia (where the systems have their own name, agukabams), 3 in India, 3 in eastern China, and 2 in North America. Those two were 2007’s Erin and a much less impressive case, 1996’s Hurricane Fran, which deepened by 1 mb while still a tropical depression over southern Ontario. Erin’s overland intensification produced three times the wind-speed increase of any other cases in the 16 examined by Anderson and Shepherd. They dubbed the inland-strengthening process the “brown ocean effect,” although in the case of red-dirt Oklahoma, it might be the “red ocean effect”! The study found that latent surface heat flux was significant in all of the cases: "The land essentially mimics the moisture-rich environment of the ocean, where the storm originated," said Anderson in a NASA news release. In a subsequent paper, the researchers (with David Radcliffe) showed that latent surface heat flux from the land can actually be larger than from the ocean for brief periods. Another common thread was a uniformly warm, moist tropical air mass across the restrengthening region. With so much water in the Texas and Oklahoma soils, and with rich atmospheric moisture already in place and set to increase, this week could end up providing a fascinating, if troublesome, test of the brown-ocean hypothesis.

Wunderground member Levi Cowan is posting daily video updates on 91L at his Tropical Tidbits website.



Figure 5. The Daily Averaged Fractional Water Index for the topmost 2 inches of soil over Oklahoma on Sunday, June 14. The index ranges from 0 (completely dry) to 1.0 (completely saturated). Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.


Weaker Tropical Storm Carlos still a heavy rain threat for Mexico
Tropical storm warnings are up for the Southwest coast of Mexico, as Tropical Storm Carlos continues its slow west-northwest motion at 6 mph, parallel to and about 70 miles offshore from the coast. Fortunately, Carlos is a very small storm, with tropical storm-force winds that only extend outwards about 45 miles, and so far its heavy rains have mostly stayed offshore. Satellite loops showed that Carlos had weakened some on Monday morning, with wind shear partially exposing the surface circulation to view, and the heavy thunderstorm activity waning in areal coverage and intensity. However, the storm was making a modest comeback by late Monday morning, and ocean temperatures are warm enough and wind shear is low enough to allow intensification back to a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday morning. This intensification may be halted when Carlos gets closer to land; the 00Z Monday run of the European model predicted that Carlos would weaken significantly on Tuesday evening in advance of a Wednesday morning landfall near Manzanillo, Mexico. Dry air and a more stable atmosphere may also lead to weakening on Tuesday. Heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will likely affect portions of the Southwest Mexican coast through Wednesday, which will cause flash flooding and mudslides. Carlos brought 1.46" of rain to Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Carlos on Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 6. Radar image of Hurricane Carlos from the Acapulco, Mexico radar, taken just before the radar failed at 8:30 pm EDT June 14, 2015. The heaviest precipitation was just offshore.

Wunderblogging hurricane expert Steve Gregory has posted a 3 pm EDT Monday afternoon update on 91L.

tropical cyclone Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting 998. taco2me61:



Now Sar you know as well as I do those Bugs will not tell you anything.
Heck they know it's "HOT" and don't care.....
LOL
as for me I had to sat in a House with out A/C and eat Marshmallow Treats
because it was to Hot to do "Pop Tarts"....

Taco :o)
Oh, boy, that must have been a big mess. I can't even imagine not having A/C today. I went outside to water plants for 15 minutes and it took me an hour to recover. If I didn't have A/C, I call 911, fake a heart attack, and have them take me to the nice, air conditioned emergency room. Actually, I might not have to fake one. :-)
Is it just me, or is this thing moving more NNW or maybe taking a jog NNW?
1003. timtlu
Quoting 999. canehater1:




I'm sure it's just the happenstance of the timing of this last frame, but the last frame looks like there's an eye in the middle.
I does look like an embryo Sar, lol.
Rain rain rain rain. Tired of Texas rain.

These quick June/July spin ups always worry me in this section of the gulf.
1006. sar2401
Quoting 997. iahtx1969:

We've had enough precip. Even minor rain creates flood issues in Houston, Dallas, and Austin these last few weeks after the historic May rainfall. I'm not so concerned about wind/surge, but eyeing the rain after what just happened (trinity and red rivers are at flood stage currently), I'm concerned about lakes / rivers / levees over central and N Texas.
Indeed. All we can do is hope that Bill turns out to be an underperformer.
Quoting 1001. sar2401:

Oh, boy, that must have been a big mess. I can't even imagine not having A/C today. I went outside to water plants for 15 minutes and it took me an hour to recover. If I didn't have A/C, I call 911, fake a heart attack, and have them take me to the nice, air conditioned emergency room. Actually, I might not have to fake one. :-)


I know SAR. Mowing the lawn today was absolutely miserable. I was melting. Time to give this high pressure ridge the boot!
Quoting 993. sar2401:

Mine says hurricane. Maybe we switched weather stations by accident or something.


No joke!!!!! I'm like ok.... I got this thing off of Groupon and for the most part it has read accurate... but this.... come on!!!!
Quoting 1001. sar2401:

Oh, boy, that must have been a big mess. I can't even imagine not having A/C today. I went outside to water plants for 15 minutes and it took me an hour to recover. If I didn't have A/C, I call 911, fake a heart attack, and have them take me to the nice, air conditioned emergency room. Actually, I might not have to fake one. :-)


Oh it was "HOT". I'm not sure what was wetter. My plants or me because of the sweating
I was doing..... I did go get in my truck and sat under a shad tree like I did when I was
working for the city..... LOL


Taco :o)
1010. centex
North side being pushed down.
1011. sar2401
Quoting 1003. timtlu:



I'm sure it's just the happenstance of the timing of this last frame, but the last frame looks like there's an eye in the middle.
No eye. The low is trying to wrap that moisture that has been spinning around on the outside into the center. I makes the low look a little deformed at times, including creating some voids that look like an eye.
Stronger storm will head more NNW

1013. sar2401
Quoting 1008. saltydog1327:



No joke!!!!! I'm like ok.... I got this thing off of Groupon and for the most part it has read accurate... but this.... come on!!!!
Some of those weather stations take 7 or 10 days from when they're set up before you get semi-accurate forecasts. Mine is never any good. It said snow showers last week.
Wow, two named storms already and it's only the 15th of June. I think the experts might need to revise this seasons predictions. What do you guys think?
1015. sar2401
Quoting 1009. taco2me61:



Oh it was "HOT". I'm not sure what was wetter. My plants or me because of the sweating
I was doing..... I did go get in my truck and sat under a shad tree like I did when I was
working for the city..... LOL


Taco :o)

My biggest shade tree fell over sometime last night. No wind or anything, it just fell over, so now I can't even go sit under it if the A/C quits. I think maybe it died of sunstroke.
Quoting 1014. HurriHistory:

Wow, two named storms already and it's only the 15th of June. I think the experts might need to revise this seasons predictions. What do you guys think?


I'm sticking to mine 14/8/3
j/s

Taco :o)
1017. sar2401
Quoting 1014. HurriHistory:

Wow, two named storms already and it's only the 15th of June. I think the experts might need to revise this seasons predictions. What do you guys think?
Early season storms are a poor predictor of total season performance.
1018. OneDay
First time I've been on in like 2 years. Glad to see some of the oldies still here.
1019. yoboi
Quoting 1000. sar2401:

There's always a chance. However, the probability is very low. As I've said before, if you're in Lake Charles, you're going to get a lot of rain. If it comes ashore in Lake Charles, it might be like a quarter inch more than if it was further south, so it's not like you'd really notice. Well, I guess a few more garbage cans could get blown around, but not much else.


I take it that you never obtained ICS level 300 & 400....
1020. sar2401
Quoting 1007. HurrMichaelOrl:



I know SAR. Mowing the lawn today was absolutely miserable. I was melting. Time to give this high pressure ridge the boot!
I wish. It'll be around for at least three more days, and tomorrow and Wednesday will probably be the worst. At least you have a slight chance for a thunderstorm. The radar over Alabama today was completely void of echoes anywhere. It's a rare day in June when that happens.
1021. aquak9
Quoting 1013. sar2401:

Some of those weather stations take 7 or 10 days from when they're set up before you get semi-accurate forecasts. Mine is never any good. It said snow showers last week.


Get a Davis Vantage Vue. Best value for your dollar.
Or the next step up? Davis Pro 2.
1022. sar2401
Quoting 1019. yoboi:



I take it that you never obtained ICS level 300 & 400....
You take it wrong, yoboi. I used to teach it. How about you? Had lots of FEMA courses? Who were your instructors? I probably knew them.
1023. sar2401
Quoting 1021. aquak9:



Get a Davis Vantage Vue. Best value for your dollar.
Or the next step up? Davis Pro 2.
As soon as this stupid lottery ticket pays off, they are at the top of my list. Otherwise, Radar Dog gets cranky if he doesn't get fed.
Bill seems to have slowed his forward speed.
1025. sflmike
Strange weather this summer in SEFL. Usually my swimming water level is high, maintained by the rainfall. This year I have to put the hose in every few day's. What's up?
Quoting 1014. HurriHistory:

Wow, two named storms already and it's only the 15th of June. I think the experts might need to revise this seasons predictions. What do you guys think?

There's no correlation. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the first storm in 2004 (Alex) didn't form until July 31, but we all know how the season turned out.
Location: 27.1N 94.2W 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15
For those who don't know, the center is the dark orange ball in the uppermost convective mass.


1028. Patrap
If we get another named storm by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.

Quoting 1013. sar2401:

Some of those weather stations take 7 or 10 days from when they're set up before you get semi-accurate forecasts. Mine is never any good. It said snow showers last week.


La Crosse Technology Model # WS-7017U-IT
1030. sar2401
Quoting 1018. OneDay:

First time I've been on in like 2 years. Glad to see some of the oldies still here.
I remember you! Well, according to others, this blog has just gone down hill so far that dreams are better. I'd logout now and not waste your time any further. :-)
I don't think Bill has slowed down, I think just the way the convection is developing makes it look like Bill's forward speed has stopped.
1032. jpsb
Quoting 1009. taco2me61:



Oh it was "HOT". I'm not sure what was wetter. My plants or me because of the sweating
I was doing..... I did go get in my truck and sat under a shad tree like I did when I was
working for the city..... LOL


Taco :o)



Yall are wimps, I live in SE Texas and I haven't turned the AC on yet. Still getting by with a few good fans.

I sure hope bill is an under performer, a week or so back we got 7.5 inches of rain in one hour! I doubt that will happen again but a slow moving TC could dump a lot of rain here. Rain we really do not need or want.
Wind picking up here now..... tried to walk my dogs.... little one went, big one just was looking around at the sky.... funny how dogs get it.
Dead calm in Rockport TX. Glad I'm out of the path, been watching all day and halted prep at about 5pm. Bill looks pretty good for an El Niño TS, he was ment for the pacific
Bill seems to have slowed his roll. Which for us here in SE Texas is not a good thing... More time over very warm water.
1036. Grothar
Quoting 1025. sflmike:

Strange weather this summer in SEFL. Usually my swimming water level is high, maintained by the rainfall. This year I have to put the hose in every few day's. What's up?


How about the algae attacks? Almost our whole neighborhood is having the same problem. I never saw anything like it.
Quoting 1032. jpsb:



Yall are wimps, I live in SE Texas and I haven't turned the AC on yet. Still getting by with a few good fans.

I sure hope bill is an under performer, a week or so back we got 7.5 inches of rain in one hour! I doubt that will happen again but a slow moving TC could dump a lot of rain here. Rain we really do not need or want.


No offense you are either a full blown idiot or just do not like to be cool! It was hot in MS where I am from, but this TX heat beats all! Please don't take offense to that!
1038. sar2401
Quoting 1029. saltydog1327:



La Crosse Technology Model # WS-7017U-IT
Yeah, Lacrosse/Oregon Scientific are about equal in the low price field. They are OK as long as you don't expect too much out of them. I've got an Acurite Five in One, which isn't bad for a cheap wireless all in one unit. The thermometer is surprisingly accurate considering it sits in direct sun all day (there's a fan aspirating air across it) and the anemometer has been super accurate. The barometer takes all kinds of adjustments to get right, and the whole forecaster thing is like what you get from those guys on TWC in the morning. It's cheap though. I can buy four of them for one Davis Vantage Pro.
1039. Patrap
1040. NCWatch
Sar is on a roll tonight!
Quoting 1032. jpsb:



Yall are wimps, I live in SE Texas and I haven't turned the AC on yet. Still getting by with a few good fans.

I sure hope bill is an under performer, a week or so back we got 7.5 inches of rain in one hour! I doubt that will happen again but a slow moving TC could dump a lot of rain here. Rain we really do not need or want.


I'll take what rain I can get! I'm just glad it's a small storm. I know that small storms can dump more rain than larger ones... I'll take the rain not the wind yeah?
1042. sar2401
Quoting 1031. CybrTeddy:

I don't think Bill has slowed down, I think just the way the convection is developing makes it look like Bill's forward speed has stopped.
I agree. The center is enlarging while the convection at the edges is decreasing. Good optical illusion. Just wait though. The 0200 TWO will say it's stationary. :-)
1043. sar2401
Quoting 1040. NCWatch:

Sar is on a roll tonight!
It's that morphine...
1044. Patrap
Quoting 1031. CybrTeddy:

I don't think Bill has slowed down, I think just the way the convection is developing makes it look like Bill's forward speed has stopped.


6 hour Loop....
1046. sar2401
Quoting 1004. ProgressivePulse:

I does look like an embryo Sar, lol.
Now it looks like an embryo rabbit. I hate it when this happens, since I sit up all night to see what the next animal is.
KPRC Houston stated the storm timeline of coming ashore is changing due to the slowing of its movement.

1048. sar2401
Quoting 1045. washingaway:



6 hour Loop....

Where's the center? It would help if you had lat/long lines when you're looking for movement.
1049. Patrap
Status Quo for now, 3 ring Dvorak and holding


1050. centex
Quoting 1044. Patrap:


His he getting kicked in behind by high?
1051. sar2401
Quoting 1047. HoustonTxGal:

KPRC Houston stated the storm timeline of coming ashore is changing due to the slowing of its movement.


It's' slowing down some but I don't think it's stopped either. Probably means more like noon than the morning commute.
1052. icythor
Looking at the IR and WV imagery there is a lot of energy with Bill. Its throwing up a major convective burst right over the center now. The closer to shore the more likely to draw all that energy inward. Looks like it will pass 60-75 miles to my S and W. That puts me in the wet quadrant. Who can sing "row, row, row your boat". lol
1053. NCWatch
Quoting 1043. sar2401:

It's that morphine...

Morphine does the body good.
Quoting 1043. sar2401:

It's that morphine...


Honesty, you have that on a drip Sar? You are old and have beaten the hell out of your body for others. For you, morphine is like aspirin for us. Glad you have a good nurse with those qualities you mentioned earlier in a forecaster.
1055. Patrap
1056. Patrap


Quoting 1039. Patrap:



Looks like the coc will come into view shortly
Quoting 1038. sar2401:

Yeah, Lacrosse/Oregon Scientific are about equal in the low price field. They are OK as long as you don't expect too much out of them. I've got an Acurite Five in One, which isn't bad for a cheap wireless all in one unit. The thermometer is surprisingly accurate considering it sits in direct sun all day (there's a fan aspirating air across it) and the anemometer has been super accurate. The barometer takes all kinds of adjustments to get right, and the whole forecaster thing is like what you get from those guys on TWC in the morning. It's cheap though. I can buy four of them for one Davis Vantage Pro.


yeah, been looking into getting a good one. this one was 10 bucks on groupon and could not pass it up.
1059. txjac
Quoting 1047. HoustonTxGal:

KPRC Houston stated the storm timeline of coming ashore is changing due to the slowing of its movement.




Did they give an estimated time?
1060. icythor
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE WITH EVENING ISSUANCE IS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS JACKSON...COLORADO... FORT
BEND... HARRIS... AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. THE CENTER FOR TROPICAL
STORM BILL WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF ROUGHLY NEAR 27 N 94 W AROUND
9 PM CDT AND WAS PUSHING NORTHWEST TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY AT
APPROXIMATELY 12 MPH. ALSO INCREASED FORECAST RAIN TOTALS WITH
EVENING PACKAGE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7
INCH TOTALS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 3 TO 6 INCHES EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS TS BILL CONTINUES ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH THE SYSTEM/S APPROACH
TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT BOTH BUOY 019 AND 035 AS OF 10 PM CDT
ALREADY AROUND 10 FEET WITH 9 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

HUFFMAN
1061. Patrap
This is some bad mojo going on.

1062. txjac
Quoting 1060. icythor:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE WITH EVENING ISSUANCE IS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS JACKSON...COLORADO... FORT
BEND... HARRIS... AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. THE CENTER FOR TROPICAL
STORM BILL WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF ROUGHLY NEAR 27 N 94 W AROUND
9 PM CDT AND WAS PUSHING NORTHWEST TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY AT
APPROXIMATELY 12 MPH. ALSO INCREASED FORECAST RAIN TOTALS WITH
EVENING PACKAGE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7
INCH TOTALS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 3 TO 6 INCHES EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS TS BILL CONTINUES ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH THE SYSTEM/S APPROACH
TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT BOTH BUOY 019 AND 035 AS OF 10 PM CDT
ALREADY AROUND 10 FEET WITH 9 TO 11 SECOND PERIODS. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

HUFFMAN


Okay, that doesnt sound so bad ...5-7" over a couple of days. I'm just dont want another deluge
Quoting 1056. Patrap:






Been a long time, lol. Seriously though, Bill is getting his spin on tonight. Hilarious...
Tops are going up early.

1065. Tex8492
Can anybody confirm Bill's movement right now? Is it sill 12mph or slower. Thanks
1066. Patrap
We will be powering down to the REM mode for 8 hours.

TARS, out.

Quoting 1049. Patrap:

Status Quo for now, 3 ring Dvorak and holding








Bill put a stop to the short wave coming through W.TX...OK is going to get drenched! I always appreciate your posts Pat.
Hey guys... with each new frame it appears Bill is putting on some serious convection. Definitely consolidating into a tighter storm. Interesting...
Quoting 1066. Patrap:

We will be powering down to the REM mode for 8 hours.

TARS, out.




BTW the hilarious at the end was me re-laughing at the picture. Could be mis-read the way I wrote it.
1070. Gearsts
Atlantic side on the Gulf

VS
Epac

1071. Gearsts
Quoting 1064. ProgressivePulse:

Tops are going up early.


lol
Quoting 1069. ProgressivePulse:



BTW the hilarious at the end was me re-laughing at the picture. Could be mis-read the way I wrote it.


And "4" ring now BTW
1073. Patrap
One last before signing out,

Unenhanced IR Loop







1074. sar2401
Quoting 1071. Gearsts:

lol
The Dvorak is getting a little white eyeball in the rabbit head so the thunderstorms are building some. Of course, it's DMax, so they should.

Bill continues to organize. The next recon flight isn't until 11z.

1076. vis0

Quoting 564. sar2401:

Just as long as it stays slightly below Biblical the ark builders still have time.
...i don't think so
1st certain workers want a better contract and a third are undocumented.
2nd the lawyers for the 2by2 animals want the animals are demanding only their animal's good side to be photographed.
3rd Product placement lawyers are taking too long to settle.
4th The kitty litter company just bowed out after being asked to supply some for the Elephants.
5th Animal rights groups...well ya know that deal "too small of an area for animals to "live"".
6th GFS has NOAH is angry overheard him say "heck", its the 7th false biblical downpour gotten wrong this season.
7th Contractors still scratching head why Noah wants an opening ON TOP of a vessel that's to float after 40 days/mights of rain.
8th You've got mail...Bill (reused from the 90s/2nulls?).

PLEASE sit down  Tapdancing Anatomical Zuche, stop wondering why there isn't any science headlines this is NOT BBrains cmmnt.
Quoting 1073. Patrap:

One last before signing out,

Unenhanced IR Loop










Looks like its moving NORTH!
1078. sar2401
Quoting 1065. Tex8492:

Can anybody confirm Bill's movement right now? Is it sill 12mph or slower. Thanks
Probably more like 8 mph, but the NHC will have an update out in an hour or so.
Link


New post about bill. I've been slacking lately, haven't I? :/
Quoting 1059. txjac:



Did they give an estimated time?



Around morning rush hour
1081. sar2401
Quoting 1076. vis0:


...i don't think so
1st certain workers want a better contract and a third are undocumented.
2nd the lawyers for the 2by2 animals want the animals are demanding only their animal's good side to be photographed.
3rd Product placement lawyers are taking too long to settle.
4th The kitty litter company just bowed out after being asked to supply some for the Elephants.
5th Animal rights groups...well ya know that deal "too small of an area for animals to "live"".
6th GFS has NOAH is angry overheard him say "heck", its the 7th false biblical downpour gotten wrong this season.
7th Contractors still scratching head why Noah wants an opening ON TOP of a vessel that's to float after 40 days/mights of rain.
8th You've got mail...Bill (reused from the 90s/2nulls?).

PLEASE sit down  Tapdancing Anatomical Zuche, stop wondering why there isn't any science headlines this is NOT BBrains cmmnt.

LOL. No wonder the ark leaked.
Sar you have hail, just kidding, you know thunderstorms die well before they get to you this year. You can cook eggs on the driveway though, something to be said for that. "OMG it's hot!" Radar want's a popsicle .
1083. Gearsts
Quoting 1075. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bill continues to organize. The next recon flight isn't until 11z.


What's your peak intensity?
Link


Local Statement from Houston NWS
Quoting 1083. Gearsts:

What's your peak intensity?

55kt.
it looks like it has slowed down and started moving due westward.. anyone else seeing that..
1087. Tex8492
Quoting 1078. sar2401:

Probably more like 8 mph, but the NHC will have an update out in an hour or so.

Alright thanks. I'm out by College Station,Tx here. Local met said 7.8 inches predicted. I've been been through a couple storms and I know when one slows down that never spells good news.
1089. sar2401
Quoting 1054. DeepSeaRising:



Honesty, you have that on a drip Sar? You are old and have beaten the hell out of your body for others. For you, morphine is like aspirin for us. Glad you have a good nurse with those qualities you mentioned earlier in a forecaster.
No, just oral. I only have one set of vertebrae left in my neck. It's not operable so narcotics are my only choice unless I never want to turn my head again. It kind of sucks, but it beats a lot of other diseases I could have at my age. Now, let me tell you about my butt...:-)
Velly intellestink.
6/16 00z GFS

12hrs out


54 hrs out (add: closed low 1007mb)


From the blog: "...in the case of red-dirt Oklahoma, it might be the 'red ocean effect'!"

graphics courtesy of tropical tidbits.com
no power outages, no power outages, no power outages... Wind picking up!
1092. Gearsts
Peak ;)
1093. sar2401
Quoting 1087. Tex8492:


Alright thanks. I'm out by College Station,Tx here. Local met said 7.8 inches predicted. I've been been through a couple storms and I know when one slows down that never spells good news.
Sometimes, but sometimes not. It can slow down as it weakens also. Predicting actual rainfall amounts for a particular location is about like picking lottery numbers. You could have three inches while they get eight inches a couple of miles away. At least this (shouldn't) won't be a big wind producer as well. You'd be looking at 14-16 inches and most of it going sideways.
1094. sflmike
Quoting 1036. Grothar:



How about the algae attacks? Almost our whole neighborhood is having the same problem. I never saw anything like it.
That is probably because of all the dry, sunny days we've had. The extra sun depletes the chlorine quicker allowing the algae to grow easier.
Quoting 1086. samiam1234:

it looks like it has slowed down and started moving due westward.. anyone else seeing that..


Hey Sam, these things move in sort of a wobble so it will jump north for a bit then west then back north. The general motion is used when NHC says NW :)
a href="" target="_blank">Link
Watch Bill !! OH No
Station KHHV
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 26.939N 94.689W
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 04:35:00 UTC

Winds: S (190°) at 29.9 kt gusting to 42.0 kt
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 0.2 nmi

Offshore deepwater facility near Bill


Station 42019
NDBC
Location: 27.907N 95.353W
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 03:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (108°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 78.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.0

Buoy 60 miles South of Freeport, TX
Quoting 1075. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bill continues to organize. The next recon flight isn't until 11z.




Quite surprised at the lack of coverage here. Just going on years past. Maybe they are trying to curb panic on minimal systems.
1099. sar2401
Quoting 1091. saltydog1327:

no power outages, no power outages, no power outages... Wind picking up!
Get your flashlight and candles. You should be close enough that you'll feel the full force of the wind over the 18 hours or so. The winds shouldn't be higher than 60 mph but a prolonged 60 mph can batter an awful lot of trees and powerlines down. Looks like you moved a little too soon.
1100. Tex8492
Quoting 1093. sar2401:

Sometimes, but sometimes not. It can slow down as it weakens also. Predicting actual rainfall amounts for a particular location is about like picking lottery numbers. You could have three inches while they get eight inches a couple of miles away. At least this (shouldn't) won't be a big wind producer as well. You'd be looking at 14-16 inches and most of it going sideways.
True on all counts. We had a storm dump 1.2 inches in a hr earlier today.
Quoting 1089. sar2401:

No, just oral. I only have one set of vertebrae left in my neck. It's not operable so narcotics are my only choice unless I never want to turn my head again. It kind of sucks, but it beats a lot of other diseases I could have at my age. Now, let me tell you about my butt...:-)
Quoting 1089. sar2401:

No, just oral. I only have one set of vertebrae left in my neck. It's not operable so narcotics are my only choice unless I never want to turn my head again. It kind of sucks, but it beats a lot of other diseases I could have at my age. Now, let me tell you about my butt...:-)


Come on Sar, you show your "random landing storm", enough as it is. First letter, double last letter. She must love you for your mind. Does that make her crazy? :)
Quoting 1096. Camille33:

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Watch Bill !! OH No

I am watching him what is going on with Bill right now?
1103. icythor
Predicted tides in Galveston Bay have been in down trend for last 11 hours but actual tides are mostly holding steady around 2.0-2.5' above normal. High tide later this morning may reach 4' above normal.
Quoting 1099. sar2401:

Get your flashlight and candles. You should be close enough that you'll feel the full force of the wind over the 18 hours or so. The winds shouldn't be higher than 60 mph but a prolonged 60 mph can batter an awful lot of trees and powerlines down. Looks like you moved a little too soon.


Yep. cooked my frozen pizza and brats in my "nuwave". now to just sit here and wait until there is no A/C.. haha... canned goods (check), flashlights (check), water (check), METS scrambling on the tv now.... OH YEAH.
Quoting 1104. saltydog1327:



Yep. cooked my frozen pizza and brats in my "nuwave". now to just sit here and wait until there is no A/C.. haha... canned goods (check), flashlights (check), water (check), METS scrambling on the tv now.... OH YEAH.

Haver your canoe ready just in case you decide you go swimming I AM GOING SWIMMING!! swim swim swim
Quoting 1086. samiam1234:

it looks like it has slowed down and started moving due westward.. anyone else seeing that..


I thought so too. but it may be the clouds building up around the center? kinda looked that way on the satellite I was watching. Switched it to radar superimposed the track and looked still dead on NW. But that's just me. Having fun with this radar I'm learning to work. It's pretty cool. Has winds, current conditions, lightning... It's local but covers maybe North America? Surrounding waters. I watched I think Blanca on it. Anyway, hope this helped. :) Link
Quoting 1105. Camille33:


Haver your canoe ready just in case you decide you go swimming I AM GOING SWIMMING!! swim swim swim


look up oyster creek in richwood, tx....that's me.
Quoting 1095. SomeRandomTexan:



Hey Sam, these things move in sort of a wobble so it will jump north for a bit then west then back north. The general motion is used when NHC says NW :)


Hey SRT :)

wouldn't be surprised if Bill went a little west..
As long as that high is over the eastern US, Bill won't be the last storm TX sees this season.
1112. sar2401
Quoting 1097. canehater1:

Station KHHV
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 26.939N 94.689W
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 04:35:00 UTC

Winds: S (190°) at 29.9 kt gusting to 42.0 kt
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 0.2 nmi

Offshore deepwater facility near Bill


Station 42019
NDBC
Location: 27.907N 95.353W
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 03:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (108°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 78.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.0

Buoy 60 miles South of Freeport, TX
The Anadarko rig looks like Bill just passed by at about 2100 CDT. Highest wind was 40 knots and gust was 48, so that should give a pretty good idea of conditions when Bill moved through. Some of these oil rigs have weather stations that aren't too trustworthy though. I wish they had maintenance warning indicators like real FAA stations at airports. That at least gives you an idea of the last time a grease monkey visited the site.
He's definitely going to pack a good punch, strengthening to landfall puts an extra spin on it. Work calls tomorrow for me, night all.

Quoting 991. sar2401:

Hey Kori, I'm glad you stopped being lazy. I've just started. Did you get my email?


No I didn't. When did you send it? I've been having weird trouble with Gmail lately.
1115. vis0

Quoting 606. TBayEyes:

How does insurance work in Texas? If a system comes in that does TS damage but is not "named" does that mean no storm deductible?
Its the Sandy "safeguard" (wink wink)  Surcharge.
Tropical Storm Bill is looking more organized tonight!

Will it wobble more westerly with time, before turning more northerly? That might give it a little more time over the water - before moving inland between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

On Satellite ... at the moment, It appears the high pressure over the SE USA, is kicking it in, like a slingshot~!

Good luck to waterlogged areas of Texas.
Oh yeah, before I disappear again (I'll stick around a little longer tonight I suppose :P) for awhile, here's a link to where I blog now. For anyone that likes my posts:

Link
1118. icythor
Long range radar out of Corpus looks like Bill might not be vertically stacked. Mid level center may be 15-20 miles to the east of the low level. But overall organization much better than anytime since it came off the Yucatan. Current convective burst may be able to suck the low level center into line.
Quoting 1117. KoritheMan:

Oh yeah, before I disappear again (I'll stick around a little longer tonight I suppose :P) for awhile, here's a link to where I blog now. For anyone that likes my posts:

Link


Kori! I've missed you! :P
Quoting 1110. bahamastrptx:


wouldn't be surprised if Bill went a little west..



woops rookie mistake EAST hah...
Sar that's as high as an Anadarko anemometer goes, they have to shut down at 50mph
1121. sar2401
Quoting 1104. saltydog1327:



Yep. cooked my frozen pizza and brats in my "nuwave". now to just sit here and wait until there is no A/C.. haha... canned goods (check), flashlights (check), water (check), METS scrambling on the tv now.... OH YEAH.
If you've got a bathtub, fill that up now. Ready source of water if the pumps fail. Water in the back of the toilet is ok for washing up, as is the water in the water heater. If you lose power and your water heater is electric, you probably want to store the hot water though so you can get at least a few lukewarm showers. Those are nice with no A/C. If you don't have any bleach, you should have bought some. Makes even nasty water safe. There are always lots of puddles after a storm that can be your water reservoirs as long as you have bleach. Battery operated NOAA radio. I've got an RCA 7 inch color digital TV I picked up off Amazon for $79 that works good with cable or over the air. It runs for about six hours on battery if it's on all the time or 12 hours if you're careful. Even has Its own little antenna you can temporarily mount on top of a cabinet to get better reception. And don't forget beer! and morphine!!! :-)
Quoting 1026. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's no correlation. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the first storm in 2004 (Alex) didn't form until July 31, but we all know how the season turned out.


Either way I feel the season will be at the upper end of NOAA's predicted range, with 10-11 storms possible. The MDR is cold and El Nino is coming on so we obviously shouldn't expect an above average season, but with the ridge continuing to block over the southeast, the door is open for systems to get trapped under the ridge and develop. This is something we haven't seen in awhile; the eastern trough pulls the heat out of the (sub?)tropics toward the poles.

I do think if things stay the way they are, someone will get caught off guard. No telling if I'm right or not, though. Ridge is pretty strong so far.
1123. sar2401
Quoting 1120. bahamastrptx:




woops rookie mistake EAST hah...
Sar that's as high as an Anadarko anemometer goes, they have to shut down at 50mph
You think? I'd assume the anemometer is free wheeling even if the rig is shut down. NWS still wants those reports.
Quoting 1119. AtHomeInTX:



Kori! I've missed you! :P



It ain't like you don't have me on Facebook, Stef. lol :P
1126. icythor
@sar
"The Anadarko rig looks like Bill just passed by at about 2100 CDT. Highest wind was 40 knots and gust was 48, so that should give a pretty good idea of conditions when Bill moved through. Some of these oil rigs have weather stations that aren't too trustworthy though. I wish they had maintenance warning indicators like real FAA stations at airports. That at least gives you an idea of the last time a grease monkey visited the site. "

Some of those rigs are measuring wind at 100' or greater above sea level. It skews their results.
1127. vis0

Quoting 660. hurricanes2018:



i like this map!!
but forgotten are inland brown ocean hits? or or inland [2nd hits] areas not counted.
Quoting 1118. icythor:

Long range radar out of Corpus looks like Bill might not be vertically stacked. Mid level center may be 15-20 miles to the east of the low level. But overall organization much better than anytime since it came off the Yucatan. Current convective burst may be able to suck the low level center into line.


The biggest issue is lack of banding. That band sagging east of the center needs to wrap cyclonically into the actual center.
Good evening from sunny Nevada!

It's sunny all right. And hot. Feels like July. I'm watching the tropical storm formations, hoping for another Andre(sp?). One of our two pregnant pigs (a New Zealand Kune Kune) miscarried at about day 60, either from heat stress or Swine Parvo. I found two confirmed, one maybe (pigs ate it before I could check) and probably two I missed while doing other things. She's fine, and the kids were fascinated with the pig fetuses - perfectly formed. But disappointing. She seemed otherwise healthy, so most likely the 90+* afternoons. They have shade, the pen's under a big Chinese elm - but still, hot is hot. The other, Mrs. Pig, she's huge and still pregnant, due on or around 6/26.

Oh, I found a couple of interesting links Brian might want to add to his list. The first is a bio of Elon Musk and how and why he started all those success stories. The second, which is a long read - a LOONG read - I'd call it "a cup of coffee at Denny's, eat through breakfast, and keep going through that pot of coffee" length of read. Took me over an hour, I'm a very fast reader. And it held my attention through the kids watching several episodes of "Phineas & Ferb."

The second part has one of the clearest, simplest explanations of the carbon levels and why they're bad, I have ever read. Flat out. The writer approached the topic as objectively as possible because he hates politics, and also towards the end explains why the petroleum companies are as freaked about Tesla as the tobacco companies were when they were starting to hear legal rumbles. Now I want a Tesla pickup truck.
1130. sar2401
Quoting 1114. KoritheMan:



No I didn't. When did you send it? I've been having weird trouble with Gmail lately.
I've been having trouble with gmail too. Things will just disappear for no apparent reason. I sent it probably three weeks ago. I thought you were snubbing me. :-) I'll dig it out and send it again. Do you think this is the season for a chaseable Gulf storm? I've got the Sarmobile ready to go if it is. I've got TV, a laptop, two ham radios, a scanner, a CB radio, and uh...oh, yeah, morphine!!!
Quoting 1125. KoritheMan:



It ain't like you don't have me on Facebook, Stef. lol :P


Haha! I know. When I typed that I hit enter and expected the comment to pop up with a little face on it immediately. Momentarily stunned when nothing happened. Lol. I'm a little outta practice. I keep saying that. Anyway, great blog. Couldn't find a place to leave a comment though.
Bill Has gone from a sheared mess to a classic looking TS in about 12 hrs. Impressive.
Quoting 1121. sar2401:

If you've got a bathtub, fill that up now. Ready source of water if the pumps fail. Water in the back of the toilet is ok for washing up, as is the water in the water heater. If you lose power and your water heater is electric, you probably want to store the hot water though so you can get at least a few lukewarm showers. Those are nice with no A/C. If you don't have any bleach, you should have bought some. Makes even nasty water safe. There are always lots of puddles after a storm that can be your water reservoirs as long as you have bleach. Battery operated NOAA radio. I've got an RCA 7 inch color digital TV I picked up off Amazon for $79 that works good with cable or over the air. It runs for about six hours on battery if it's on all the time or 12 hours if you're careful. Even has Its own little antenna you can temporarily mount on top of a cabinet to get better reception. And don't forget beer! and morphine!!! :-)

Katrina was the perfect example, God helps those who helps themselves in situations such as these. Good advice. Prepare and use what is at hand. Prepare for neighbors who haven't . Save the morphine for the injured. Looking at likely, one of the stories of the year tropical speaking.
Quoting 1118. icythor:

Long range radar out of Corpus looks like Bill might not be vertically stacked. Mid level center may be 15-20 miles to the east of the low level. But overall organization much better than anytime since it came off the Yucatan. Current convective burst may be able to suck the low level center into line.


is it being sheard off or just unorganized?
1136. icythor
@Kori
"The biggest issue is lack of banding. That band sagging east of the center needs to wrap cyclonically into the actual center. "

I agree, but it looks like Bill is making a real effort to pull all that energy together. Waiting for the 1am update then headed to bed so I can be up early to check again.
1137. sar2401
Quoting 1126. icythor:

@sar
"The Anadarko rig looks like Bill just passed by at about 2100 CDT. Highest wind was 40 knots and gust was 48, so that should give a pretty good idea of conditions when Bill moved through. Some of these oil rigs have weather stations that aren't too trustworthy though. I wish they had maintenance warning indicators like real FAA stations at airports. That at least gives you an idea of the last time a grease monkey visited the site. "

Some of those rigs are measuring wind at 100' or greater above sea level. It skews their results.
Yes, I forgot to mention that. The stations are there primarily for helicopter weather, not meteorological weather, so the wind speeds are good if you're trying to land a bird there but not so good for accurate 10 meter winds.
Quoting 1121. sar2401:

If you've got a bathtub, fill that up now. Ready source of water if the pumps fail. Water in the back of the toilet is ok for washing up, as is the water in the water heater. If you lose power and your water heater is electric, you probably want to store the hot water though so you can get at least a few lukewarm showers. Those are nice with no A/C. If you don't have any bleach, you should have bought some. Makes even nasty water safe. There are always lots of puddles after a storm that can be your water reservoirs as long as you have bleach. Battery operated NOAA radio. I've got an RCA 7 inch color digital TV I picked up off Amazon for $79 that works good with cable or over the air. It runs for about six hours on battery if it's on all the time or 12 hours if you're careful. Even has Its own little antenna you can temporarily mount on top of a cabinet to get better reception. And don't forget beer! and morphine!!! :-)


hahaha.... all this morphine talk. I have a Midland Wx radio. Tubs are filled.. Think this might get a little stronger? It doesn't take much to knock my power out here. AT ALL.
Quoting 1126. icythor:

@sar
"The Anadarko rig looks like Bill just passed by at about 2100 CDT. Highest wind was 40 knots and gust was 48, so that should give a pretty good idea of conditions when Bill moved through. Some of these oil rigs have weather stations that aren't too trustworthy though. I wish they had maintenance warning indicators like real FAA stations at airports. That at least gives you an idea of the last time a grease monkey visited the site. "

Some of those rigs are measuring wind at 100' or greater above sea level. It skews their results.


Yes on the mounting height of the anemometer . The weather buoys are more accurate for surface wind data. The rig I posted is the Hoover Diana which is south of Bill's path, hence the Southerly wind.
Quoting 1130. sar2401:

I've been having trouble with gmail too. Things will just disappear for no apparent reason. I sent it probably three weeks ago. I thought you were snubbing me. :-) I'll dig it out and send it again. Do you think this is the season for a chaseable Gulf storm? I've got the Sarmobile ready to go if it is. I've got TV, a laptop, two ham radios, a scanner, a CB radio, and uh...oh, yeah, morphine!!!


This was the 500 mb pattern for May.



It's not the typical El Nino configuration which suggests to me the ridge/trough pattern over the US isn't really being amplified by it yet. As long as the ridge persists, I'm inclined to think this season will be dangerous, especially from an El Nino standpoint. I don't think many people remember what this kind of pattern can do. We're already seeing it.
Kori my WUmail is being flaky, so check out comment #710 on my blog and tell me what you think of your animal portrait ;)


Floater Funktop Image with nice burst of convection at end of loop
1144. icythor
Good night everyone. Smart phone will wake me up if Bill hits Hurricane and makes landfall in my backyard. lol

One nice thing about living in Wisconsin, Erin was the last beastly I had to deal with. Epic it was. Bill will be one of the top three land falling storms of the year, hope it doesn't do what it may.
Quoting 1142. BaltimoreBrian:

Kori my WUmail is being flaky, so check out comment #710 on my blog and tell me what you think of your animal portrait ;)


Will do, Brian. :D
I'ma do another update on Bill this morning before it moves inland. I gave you guys the link to my blog. Use it. :P
hahaha Brian, I couldn't have asked for a better animal. Suits me well. :P
Link

Corpus Christi Radar 248 mile range
00z Euro buying into the brown earth effect also.
24 hrs 1005 mb

48 hrs 1002 mb


(See comment 1090 for 00z GFS)

graphics courtesy of tropical tidbits.com
1152. sar2401
Quoting 1133. DeepSeaRising:
Katrina was the perfect example, God helps those who helps themselves in situations such as these. Good advice. Prepare and use what is at hand. Prepare for neighbors who haven't . Save the morphine for the injured. Looking at likely, one of the stories of the year tropical speaking.
People should be prepared to tend to their own needs for at least three days. With something like Katrina, more like a week. The cavalry is not coming. My morphine is extended release so it won't do the injured much good. That brings up a good point though. You need a first aid kit, and not one of those cheapies from the dollar store. Costco carries good industrial kits. Cheaper than Dirt has a good supply of decent, inexpensive first aid kits. Get a couple of the Israeli style tactical bandages. You can treat a big laceration or closed fracture with one, and very few normal first aid kits have it. Lacerations and fractures are the two common injuries you'll see. Have some sunscreen and sunburn lotion. Make sure you have extras for your prescription drugs since your pharmacy is not going to be open and, if they are, their computers won't work. Have at least $100 in cash. No power = no credit cards. If you're like me, you need an extra pair of eyeglasses as well as sunglasses. Take off those sandals and put on a pair of work boots. There will be all kinds of nails and broken glass waiting to get you, not to mention...SNAKES!! Where's your ID and Social Security card? You'll need them. Get used to the idea our forefathers lived in a world where a candle was the only light and did fine. You can see in the dark better than you think, and you'll soon be following the sun in terms of sleep. There are a million other things I could write but, unfortunately, your own list learned from your first disaster is one you'll never have to look up.
1153. TXCWC
"SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.3W..."

(red line and dot is actual track and current postion) Unless it starts tracking more north it is going WEST of it's next scheduled forecast point

img src="">
1154. sar2401
Quoting 1138. saltydog1327:



hahaha.... all this morphine talk. I have a Midland Wx radio. Tubs are filled.. Think this might get a little stronger? It doesn't take much to knock my power out here. AT ALL.
After seeing the 0100 update, I don't think it has much of chance of getting to be more than 60 mph storm now. It's starting to move right along at 13 mph. It should be making landfall between 10 and and noon. The NHC has been right on the money once they finally got a decent center. The most recent water vapor image shows more dry air getting ingested and very poor banding, not the sign of an intensifying storm. Texas may have dodged a bullet on a windier storm. Now we'll see how the rain does. So far, the radar presentation doesn't look impressive, but that may change as more of the storm is picked up by closer range radars.
1155. sar2401
Quoting 1153. TXCWC:

"SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.3W..."

(red line and dot is actual track and current postion) Unless it starts tracking more north it is going WEST of it's next scheduled forecast point

img src="">
It may, but do you think that difference will be significant?
I see banding 1 o'clock, looks like he's overcoming the dry air that was to his west too.
1157. sar2401
Quoting 1140. KoritheMan:



This was the 500 mb pattern for May.



It's not the typical El Nino configuration which suggests to me the ridge/trough pattern over the US isn't really being amplified by it yet. As long as the ridge persists, I'm inclined to think this season will be dangerous, especially from an El Nino standpoint. I don't think many people remember what this kind of pattern can do. We're already seeing it.
It sure hasn't been a normal El Nino pattern. I had a much wetter than normal May but June is starting to fall behind and the heat is horrendous. This is really the first time this year the ridge has built in strongly, and I don't think we could have gotten Bill without it. We''l see how it looks as we get into the peak season.
Quoting 1155. sar2401:

It may, but do you think that difference will be significant?


with a concentrated wind field, positioning makes a huge difference
1159. sar2401
Quoting 1156. bahamastrptx:

I see banding 1 o'clock, looks like he's overcoming the dry air that was to his west too.
There's some inconsistent banding but also quite an outflow channel on the east side as the storm tries to vent the dry air. The storm is not dead but it also doesn't look like it's bound for anything but very modest strengthening.
1160. sar2401
Quoting 1158. bahamastrptx:



with a concentrated wind field, positioning makes a huge difference
What makes you think this storm has a concentrated wind field? If anything, it appears to much more elongated than we'd normally see in such a weak storm.
Quoting 1154. sar2401:

After seeing the 0100 update, I don't think it has much of chance of getting to be more than 60 mph storm now. It's starting to move right along at 13 mph. It should be making landfall between 10 and and noon. The NHC has been right on the money once they finally got a decent center. The most recent water vapor image shows more dry air getting ingested and very poor banding, not the sign of an intensifying storm. Texas may have dodged a bullet on a windier storm. Now we'll see how the rain does. So far, the radar presentation doesn't look impressive, but that may change as more of the storm is picked up by closer range radars.


mets here just said "no clue as to whether this makes hurricane status, but either way, rain and power outages". lights started flickering about 20 mins. ago. put my phone on charge. about to try to get my biggest, oldest dog to use the bathroom.... the struggle is REAL. hahaha...
Quoting 1155. sar2401:

It may, but do you think that difference will be significant?


it is significant with a wind field that small and this far out. could be the difference between 55mph and 30 mph within a 10mi radius
Quoting 1160. sar2401:

What makes you think this storm has a concentrated wind field? If anything, it appears to much more elongated than we'd normally see in such a weak storm.


small storms have a concentrated wind field. large storms have a broad wind field. 101
I think there is a greater sense of awareness than usual among Texans because of the amount of rain we've received recently. I'm fairly confident people are adequately prepared for Bill.
Quoting 1159. sar2401:

There's some inconsistent banding but also quite an outflow channel on the east side as the storm tries to vent the dry air. The storm is not dead but it also doesn't look like it's bound for anything but very modest strengthening.



modest is a good thing!
1166. vis0
Lightning going away from outer regions of Bill this means trying for a CAT1, plus has the "i'm eyeing" where to go next as if taking a slight lean back to then bum rush, also some outflow heading Bill's way from its SE/ESE just passed Cuba what will that outflow do? add ability to squeeze out more moisture? Stay tuned that and sprinkles of WaDaHeck on WxU.
image host
rain mists moving in in here in richwood, tx. dog still refuses to use the bathroom... I'm thinking "are you kidding me" and SAR...Wx station went from sunny and rising to rain and dropping.... nice reliable model.
1168. sar2401
Quoting 1163. bahamastrptx:



small storms have a concentrated wind field. large storms have a broad wind field. 101
This is a fairly large storm for one so weak. Tropical storm force winds out to 160 miles is pretty large for 50 mph storm. You seem to have your heart set on some concentrated wind field. We'll see later today.
Quoting 1164. galvestonhurricane:

I think there is a greater sense of awareness than usual among Texans because of the amount of rain we've received recently. I'm fairly confident people are adequately prepared for Bill.


I agree, especially those who went through rita and ike. I have noticed removable barriers in the out bound lanes of the inner and outer city for a more efficient evac if necessary. fortunately this storm doesn't warrant that, and I hope it remains that way for a long while
1170. sar2401
Quoting 1166. vis0:

Lightning going away from outer regions of Bill this means trying for a CAT1, plus has the "i'm eyeing" where to go next as if taking a slight lean back to then bum rush, also some outflow heading Bill's way from its SE/ESE just passed Cuba what will that outflow do? add ability to squeeze out more moisture? Stay tuned that and sprinkles of WaDaHeck on WxU.
image host
There's very little lightning associated with Bill's outer bands. Unless something changes drastically and quickly, cat 1 is not probable.
1171. sar2401
Quoting 1165. bahamastrptx:




modest is a good thing!
I'm hoping this rain doesn't turn out to be as bad as forecast. If it doesn't, Bill will be a good "training" storm to get people back in the mindset it's hurricane season again. It has been a long time since we've had this kind of storm in Alabama or Florida. I'd worry more about preparedness here than in Texas.
1172. sar2401
Quoting 1167. saltydog1327:

rain mists moving in in here in richwood, tx. dog still refuses to use the bathroom... I'm thinking "are you kidding me" and SAR...Wx station went from sunny and rising to rain and dropping.... nice reliable model.
At least it's showing rain now. Mine says partly cloudy and there's not a cloud in the sky. It's still 76 and really humid outside. Radar Dog will not go outside if he sense there's any lightning in the area. Maybe your dog is picking up something like that. Wind disturbs Radar Dog too. Loud birds scare him. I have the most cowardly dog in the world.
1173. vis0
CREDIT:: LSU
IMAGERY:: WV
SUBJECT:: BILL

image host

next post (~12mins), i'll post outflows heading towards Bill's southern Region how do WxU members think those outflows will change bill add a bit of drag to slow Bill and intensify or just add more moisture to its eventual rotation...psst Grothar did ya bookmark the other 2 blips, one off NE ?? ...while the one on Caribbean sea is going thru wind sheer but could it pull a Bill out of its pocket
Quoting 1151. Barefootontherocks:
00z Euro buying into the brown earth effect also.
24 hrs 1005


Hurricane Gilbert also benefited from the brown earth effect. From the thumbnail: 8.60" Wichita Wildlife Refuge, OK (Edit: Can't get thumbnail to post and it's too late to figure out - but Wichita Wildlife Refuge in OK had the US rainfall record for Gilbert. It's quite fascinating considering that Gilbert passed all the way to West Texas and finally made it's way into Oklahoma - unlike the usual I-35 route) Link to WikiPic: Gilbert Rainfall Track
1175. sar2401
Quoting 1161. saltydog1327:



mets here just said "no clue as to whether this makes hurricane status, but either way, rain and power outages". lights started flickering about 20 mins. ago. put my phone on charge. about to try to get my biggest, oldest dog to use the bathroom.... the struggle is REAL. hahaha...
It's true for Texas storms since they have been known to intensify just before landfall. The rain, and power outages will occur regardless of the classification of the storm. Oh, yeah, one of the things that quits working first with a storm of any size is cell phones. Between damage to towers, no power because the generator quit, and everyone and their brother wanting to talk to everyone else at once, the cell phone network will collapse pretty early. I know it's an added expense but a wired phone line is good insurance if you need emergency service in a storm. Just make sure the phone isn't wireless. They don't work without power either. Good luck with the dog wrestling match.

Time for me to totter off to bed. I hope it's a good rest of the day for everyone down there.
1176. vis0
image host

outflows heading towards Bill's southern Region how do WxU members think those outflows will change bill add a bit of drag to slow Bill and intensify or just add more moisture to its eventual rotation...psst Grothar did ya bookmark the other 2 blips, one off NE ?? ...while the one on Caribbean sea is going thru wind sheer but could it pull a Bill out of its pocket
Quoting 1172. sar2401:

At least it's showing rain now. Mine says partly cloudy and there's not a cloud in the sky. It's still 76 and really humid outside. Radar Dog will not go outside if he sense there's any lightning in the area. Maybe your dog is picking up something like that. Wind disturbs Radar Dog too. Loud birds scare him. I have the most cowardly dog in the world.


She is a cross between a bassett and a chow... looks and acts like a lab... as for being scared, nope, not her. she sits on the porch while thunder is not just clapping, but sh-bang!


Showing slowly
1180. vis0

Quoting 958. sar2401:

Yes, many of us old fogies feel that way. Unfortunately, the past is just that - the past, and we're rushing headlong into the future. Personally, I get a lot of enjoyment out of running into a singles bar and shouting "H ey everyone! I just got a tweet that the mall has exploded!" and then watching them all grab for their phones. :-)
So the "constitution" allows for tweeting FIRE in a crowded theater?
Waves beginning to pick up near the coast as Bill approaches
Full view of Bill and Carlos
1183. vis0

Quoting 987. sar2401:

Hmm. I'll have to start paying attention to the insects. We have all those kinds of bugs in Alabama. We also have these giant palmetto bugs. Do you guys have them? They look like a huge but slightly cleaner cockroaches. The run all over the porch like roaches when I turn the light on. I'll have to keep an eye on them and see if their running patterns give me any clue about how unbearably hot it will be tomorrow. While you guys have been all worried about a little water, the high here was 102 degrees. It was terrible. I had to sit in the house and eat Pop Tarts all day, and now I'm fatter than AlGore.
yar gonna develope gutbal warming


110 degree temps next week in KS... maybe
1187. LargoFl
000
WTNT22 KNHC 160206
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 94.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
1188. LargoFl
1189. LargoFl
1190. LargoFl
well at this early hour nhc is still a little uncertain of exactly where BILL will come ashore,warnings are out now in area's of texas.
1191. LargoFl

Next MJO Pulse comes by the end of the month.
Quoting 1190. LargoFl:

well at this early hour nhc is still a little uncertain of exactly where BILL will come ashore,warnings are out now in area's of texas.
Morning Largo. Only stopped in to see if they'd put up advisory # 2 as yet ... should be an interesting day across much of central and eastern Texas, hopefully without loss of life ...
Good afternoon, everyone! Final landfall location for Bill looks to be Matagorda or just north.



Starting to show up on radar...
Update from freeport/surfside beach/richwood..... wind now blowing.... no rain, bands are rolling in but no showers.. about to pick up I suspect....
1196. vis0

Quoting 1121. sar2401:

If you've got a bathtub, fill that up now. Ready source of water if the pumps fail. Water in the back of the toilet is ok for washing up, as is the water in the water heater. If you lose power and your water heater is electric, you probably want to store the hot water though so you can get at least a few lukewarm showers. Those are nice with no A/C. If you don't have any bleach, you should have bought some. Makes even nasty water safe. There are always lots of puddles after a storm that can be your water reservoirs as long as you have bleach. Battery operated NOAA radio. I've got an RCA 7 inch color digital TV I picked up off Amazon for $79 that works good with cable or over the air. It runs for about six hours on battery if it's on all the time or 12 hours if you're careful. Even has Its own little antenna you can temporarily mount on top of a cabinet to get better reception. And don't forget beer! and morphine!!! :-)
tub and if you have washer fill it up too, during SANDY all our neighbors filled the tub but in being without power for ~7 days by day 5 they ran out of water to wash or flush we had the washer water.
Rain and wind now.... about to set in I guess!
Quoting 1196. vis0:


tub and if you have washer fill it up too, during SANDY all our neighbors filled the tub but in being without power for ~7 days by day 5 they ran out of water to wash or flush we had the washer water.



And if you went through Ike, you had to survive 2-3 weeks without power (even significantly inland).
1199. 882MB

Their on their way to Bill.
1203. LargoFl
Quoting 1193. BahaHurican:

Morning Largo. Only stopped in to see if they'd put up advisory # 2 as yet ... should be an interesting day across much of central and eastern Texas, hopefully without loss of life ...
good morning, yes maybe more awful flooding in texas gee.
Good morning. Another vigorous thunderstorm moved through Tampa yesterday with tons of lightning and torrential rain. I picked up 0.71", which brings my June total to 4.74". My prayers go out to all affected by TS Bill today. Stay safe everyone.
1205. LargoFl
1206. LargoFl
Quoting 1204. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. Another vigorous thunderstorm moved through Tampa yesterday with tons of lightning and torrential rain. I picked up 0.71", which brings my June total to 4.74". My prayers go out to all affected by TS Bill today. Stay safe everyone.
man Matt..it was booming bigtime over Tampa yesterday,heard it all the way over by me, then the storm moved NW up to north Pinellas..i thought for sure earlier I was going to get the rain etc..didn't get a drop here.
1207. LargoFl
wants.to.be.a.hurricane
1209. LargoFl

000
FONT12 KNHC 160846
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
0900 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

GALVESTON TX 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

HOUSTON TX 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)

AUSTIN TX 34 6 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

PORT O CONNOR 34 56 7(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
PORT O CONNOR 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

1210. LargoFl
Quoting 1208. islander101010:

wants.to.be.a.hurricane
ships model nhc mentioned want to bring it up to a cat-1 before landfall
1211. LargoFl
BILL LOCAL WATCH/WARNING STATEMENT/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX AL022015
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXZ209-161815-
/O.CON.KEWX.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FAYETTE-
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: EQUIVALENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
- PEAK WIND FORECAST: 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
- THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- EMERGENCY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT
FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 39 TO 57 MPH.
- BE SAFE AND PROTECT AGAINST THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED WIND
IMPACTS.
- HAZARDOUS WIND IS POSSIBLE. FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER
MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
- IF REALIZED, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO
PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES
ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN
OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
- PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 6-10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: HIGH
- THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- EMERGENCY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE A THREAT OF
FLOODING.
- BE SAFE AND REMAIN READY TO PROTECT AGAINST FLOODING RAIN
IMPACTS. STAY INFORMED.
- IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, HEED
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS. ALSO LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LONGER-TERM IMPACTS ALONG RIVERS.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: EXTENSIVE
- IF REALIZED, MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY
EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, ARROYOS,
AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. IN MOUNTAIN AREAS,
DESTRUCTIVE RUNOFF MAY RUN QUICKLY DOWN VALLEYS WHILE
INCREASING SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES.
FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR
WASHED AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER
ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF
MOVING WATER WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME DANGEROUS. MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
- THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- EMERGENCY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- BE SAFE AND REMAIN READY TO PROTECT AGAINST THE POTENTIAL
OF LIMITED TORNADO IMPACTS. STAY INFORMED.
- LISTEN FOR TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS. BE READY TO
SHELTER QUICKLY IF A TORNADO APPROACHES.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE
EXECUTION OF OTHER EMERGENCY ACTIVITIES DURING TROPICAL
EVENTS.
- IF REALIZED, A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE,
ALONG WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS,
CHIMNEYS TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR
OVERTURNED, LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF,
SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN
OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

$$
All the U.S. Weather stations have disappeared from the Wunderground Map whether using the browser or iPhone app.

Where does Weather Underground post server problems and maintenance notices?

1213. LargoFl
Quoting 1213. LargoFl:


65-70 MPH easily.
1215. LargoFl
Quoting 1214. HurricaneAndre:

65-70 MPH easily.
yes it still has time,hope the folks there are taking this seriously.
1216. LargoFl



Tropical Storm Bill forms in the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Bill. Tropical Storm Bill currently has winds at 50 mph with higher gust. The primary threat from Tropical Storm Bill will be the heavy rainfall which will cause flash flooding. Rainfall amounts are expected to be 4 to 8 inches in eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible in eastern Texas
1217. LargoFl
gee possible 12 inches of rain,falling on already soaking grounds..flooding is going to be the story with this storm I guess.
Where is landfall?
Bill is dragging its feet as it strengthens... Was watching the HRRR runs last night, it showed it making landfall around now. Now it shows it staying offshore another 6-8 hours. Very dangerous.

pretty close to landfall here people... heavy rain still offshore... banding, winds, no real anything to report YET. Freeport, TX. no power outages, no power outages, no power outages.
They took the weather underground classic version down in May 2015 and I sure miss it! The pages loaded faster, many of the links were at the top of the page...
This new version must have more items that need to load because it takes a very long time to update, least for me. I have checked this on different machines and different connections, plus I see many of you mentioning that the system is slow etc.

It is possible WU does not have the capacity to handle all of the additional traffic that shows up during storm season.

I have been here since 2004 and WU was great for many years, but now, well...you know...
Let me add that there is a "lite" version of WU, but you cannot use these blogs, you can only see the weather and for that purpose, it functions very well!
998.7

Recon is finding 60mph winds and 999mb pressure. Wow.
Storm looks to have organized somewhat overnight. I personally think Bill is stronger than 50 mph. The curvature of the Texas coastline is helping its circulation tighten up significantly. HH are enroute so we will see. But this might be a 60-65 mph storm once it makes landfall. Rain remains the biggest threat.
Good Morning here from Victoria, TX! Wind steady at 11 kts Broken ceiling at 900', no rain yet just a little mist now and then.
1228. Tex8492
Quoting 1220. saltydog1327:

pretty close to landfall here people... heavy rain still offshore... banding, winds, no real anything to report YET. Freeport, TX. no power outages, no power outages, no power outages.
Same here up in Bryan,Tx. Very quite. Almost seems like a normal day. Weather wise that is.
Quoting 1221. wilburo33:

They took the weather underground classic version down in May 2015 and I sure miss it! The pages loaded faster, many of the links were at the top of the page...
This new version must have more items that need to load because it takes a very long time to update, least for me. I have checked this on different machines and different connections, plus I see many of you mentioning that the system is slow etc.

It is possible WU does not have the capacity to handle all of the additional traffic that shows up during storm season.

I have been here since 2004 and WU was great for many years, but now, well...you know...


Its the ads.
Quoting 1225. HurricaneAndre:

Recon is finding 60mph winds and 999mb pressure. Wow.

Convection has really started to blossom as it get closer to the coast likely because of the warm water (around 30C) which is quite toasty. If this had one more day over water this could have been a hurricane.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 11:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 10:57:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2809'N 9551'W (28.15N 95.85W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114 at 58kts (From the ESE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19C (66F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35) from the flight level center at 10:53:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND KT 190/22 KT
Strongest winds are just offshore. Headed directly to Matagorda Bay.

1233. aquak9
Matagorda Bay are DOOM
Hmm one more day it would be a Cat 1
Quoting 1231. Thing342
11:21 AM GMT on June 16, 2015


Another 12 hrs and this would have been a cane IMO. Recon must have left a little early?
Still all quiet near NAS Kingsville, about 30 miles south of Corpus Christi. You would never know that heavy winds/rains are nearby. I can sure understand how storms killed so many people in the days past before our modern technology!
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161137
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BILL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Quoting 1234. NathanT3478:

Hmm one more day it would be a Cat 1



Ain't that about how it always seems to go?
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing
station at Matagorda Bay reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).
Quoting 1238. JrWeathermanFL:



Ain't that about how it always seems to go?

Maybe not this time, with the chance of the brown ocean effect kicks in...
Quoting 1241. drg0dOwnCountry:


Maybe not this time, with the chance of the brown ocean effect kicks in...


Notice how the NHC mentions it but fails to give any details, lol. Skating way around the big pink elephant.
Quoting 1195. saltydog1327:

Update from freeport/surfside beach/richwood..... wind now blowing.... no rain, bands are rolling in but no showers.. about to pick up I suspect....
Stay safe, salty....
Quoting 1236. WildHorseDesertTx:

Still all quiet near NAS Kingsville, about 30 miles south of Corpus Christi. You would never know that heavy winds/rains are nearby. I can sure understand how storms killed so many people in the days past before our modern technology!
Things should stay fairly quiet there. Bill looks set to make landfall somewhere near Matagorda Bay in the next couple of hours; points south of there along the coast shouldn't see much more than offshore breezes and the odd wraparound squall. I think the primary area to watch today is from Austin to Dallas/Ft. Worth, which should see long-lasting torrential rainfall at times.
NWS-Corpus Christi has a really good 'One Stop Shop for Hurricane Information' page on their site, IMHO.

After a quick look and read through of the different tabs I caught up on all the pertinent information on Bill very quickly and easily.
Got a nice squall line heading this way over Galveston and heading my way.
1247. MahFL
Eye forming ?

1248. MahFL
HH says an eye wall is forming.
If I didn't know any better, looking at the AVN, I'd put the center farther south under that other convection blob.
He is trying to form an eye, too close to shore. Well Recon shows an eye, so a little more we would have a Hurricane.
No its about to hit Matagorda Bay, near Port Lavaca. You can see it coming in.
Had it not been for an Upper Level Low dancing around with this storm for a time, I think we could have seen a Cat 1

hurricane. As it is , I find the improved appearance in the last 24 hrs. to be remarkable. Squalls moving in to Galveston

where my vessel is tied up as I type this.
Quoting 1250. NathanT3478:

He is trying to form an eye, too close to shore. Well Recon shows an eye, so a little more we would have a Hurricane.


Given that he still has a few hours, maybe a peak of 65 would be a good estimate. But who know what Bill will try to do this morning.
Whether or not it's a hurricane or a ts, flooding will be the biggest issue here
ATL: Bill is now a 60mph Tropical Storm as it nears Texas and will be making landfall soon. It probably won't stregthen anymore since it will be going over land soon. But, tropical storm conditions will be felt in Texas and rainfall will be spread across the region. Flooding is a primary threat with this system. This is an interesting system right now.

EPAC: Hurricane Carlos still trying to hold on but it looks very weak. It will be done by the end of the week as it moves away from the coastline.

Read more...
Quoting 1247. MahFL:

Eye forming ?




Bill is just trying to fully wrap convection around its center. So far it hasn't done that (not a tight closed off center). Once Bill moves on shore I would expect precipitation to fully wrap around the center.
Good Morning. Tried staying up last night before the TS declaration but Bill finally pulled it off. Flooding issues downstream and we have the luxury, with most landfalling storms for the US, of doppler radar all the way in.
South Plains sector loop
1257. Tex8492
Dropped Radiosonde found 75mph winds for a few seconds.


Part B: Data for Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1001mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.5°C (76°F)
872mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.9°C (66°F)
861mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.8°C (62°F)
850mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) About 10°C (50°F)
844mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 6°C (43°F)

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1001mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 48 knots (55 mph)
993mb 105° (from the ESE) 60 knots (69 mph)
980mb 105° (from the ESE) 63 knots (72 mph)
971mb 115° (from the ESE) 61 knots (70 mph)
965mb 110° (from the ESE) 65 knots (75 mph)
953mb 115° (from the ESE) 56 knots (64 mph)
940mb 115° (from the ESE) 53 knots (61 mph)
858mb 120° (from the ESE) 48 knots (55 mph)
844mb 125° (from the SE) 45 knots (52 mph)

Winds at a particular level are peak winds since a dropsonde only records momentary slices of data at each level as it falls through the atmosphere. These winds are not 1 minute sustained.
Noting (with Bill as a TS) that it has currently been 7 years since the continental US has had an actual "major hurricane" landfall.............A remarkable statistic.
Good morning all. Any Texas TV stations carrying wall-to-wall coverage?
1260. Dakster
Quoting 1218. robinvtx1215:

Where is landfall?


I'm betting Texas coast at the moment.
abc13.com has some.
Quoting 1258. weathermanwannabe:

Noting (with Bill as a TS) that it has currently been 10 years since the continental US has had an actual "hurricane" landfall.............A remarkable statistic.
Well, seven years. Or four years. But, still, remarkable.
Quoting 1258. weathermanwannabe:

Noting (with Bill as a TS) that it has currently been 10 years since the continental US has had an actual "hurricane" landfall.............A remarkable statistic.
You mean major hurricane landfall?
Will also note that the forward movement of Bill has slowed considerably; if this trend continues for the next 24, the S-SE portion of Texas, including the coastal areas from Harlingen up towards Galveston and Houston, are in for massive flooding.
Quoting 1263. washingtonian115:

You mean major hurricane landfall?


You are both (Wash and Neo) correct; my bad.............Still working on the first cup of coffee.
1266. MahFL
Quoting 1258. weathermanwannabe:

Noting (with Bill as a TS) that it has currently been 10 years since the continental US has had an actual "hurricane" landfall.............A remarkable statistic.


I think you mean a Cat 3. Hurricane Arthur made landfall in South Carolina just last year.
1267. MahFL
I saw map where Bill takes 2 days to get to Oklahoma. Texas is of course a big State.
1268. Dakster
I hope Bill doesn't cause flooding. And stalling would not be a good thing right now.
Here is the slow crawl with the massive flooding potential waiting to come onshore over the next 24 irrespective of the center just offshore:



Chronological List of All Hurricanes: 1851 - 2014
(From NOAA, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory)
1271. Dakster
Quoting 1267. MahFL:

I saw map where Bill takes 2 days to get to Oklahoma. Texas is of course a big State.


Takes me 2 days to drive through Texas on the highway... Pretty much can't be done in 24 hours of straight driving - unless you are trying to do a real smoky and the bandit run.
1272. MahFL
Quoting 1262. Neapolitan:

Well, seven years. or four years. But, still, remarkable.


Ike was actually a Cat 2 at landfall (110 mph). So it's been 10 years since a land falling Cat 3 hit the US mainland.
1273. IDTH
One thing that is different about this hurricane season from like the last 4, is we don't have the Texas drought absolutely shutting down the Gulf of Mexico.
Well there's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
Well there's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
And I've been tryin' to call my baby
Lord and I can't get a single sound

Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Yeah flood water keep a rollin'
Man it's about to drive poor me insane

1275. ncstorm
Good Morning..

I guess the CMC wasnt all that crazy..

Bill is going to pull in a lot of moisture from the GOM and affect half of the US as the 00z UKMet is jumping on the 12z CMC idea..precip map only goes out to 72 hours..I hate to say it but most of Texas if the UKMET is right is looking at rain till friday

1276. MahFL
Quoting 1268. Dakster:

I hope Bill doesn't cause flooding. And stalling would not be a good thing right now.


Did you just wake from a coma ? massive inland flooding is forecast as TX has had 2 record wet months in a row.
1278. K8eCane
TEXANS, 4 words; Turn Around Dont Drown!

I see a pine hole eye


1279. Dakster

Quoting 1273. IDTH:

One thing that is different about this hurricane season from like the last 4, is we don't have the Texas drought absolutely shutting down the Gulf of Mexico.


YUP. And they are saying it is possible Bill could strengthen on land via the "brown ocean effect". Really wish they would change that to something better like "Wet land affect".

My thoughts and prayers are for those in Texas right now. Made sure my friends in the path are aware and they have told they are are prepared.
Quoting 1264. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note that the forward movement of Bill has slowed considerably; if this trend continues for the next 24, the S-SE portion of Texas, including the coastal areas from Harlingen up towards Galveston and Houston, are in for massive flooding.


Harlingen isn't on the coast, per se. Brownsville/South Padre Island is.
Dr. Master's already nailed it yesterday with the observation as to the weak steering currents:


Regardless of whether or not 91L becomes Tropical Storm Bill before it makes landfall, the system will post a distinct threat of serious flooding over a broad swath from eastern Texas into Oklahoma. Both states just experienced the wettest single month in their history, and soils remain near saturation. Even without such a worrisome precondition, systems like 91L are notorious for producing enormous amount of rain, sometimes with tragic results. 91L has a large and very moist circulation, and steering currents will be weak as the system slowly moves around a strong, hot dome of high pressure over the Southeast. Slow-moving systems need not be intense prior to landfall to generate huge rainfalls once they’re inland, as demonstrated by a number of Gulf of Mexico systems during June and July, when upper flow is often listless. Tropical Storm Allison is a textbook example: in June 2001, Allison drifted into east Texas, then circled back southward and made a second landfall in Louisiana, dumping as much to 38” of rain over six days across parts of the Houston area. Catastrophic flooding from Allison killed at least 41 people and caused some $9 billion in damage. 
Birds tweeting this morning, a few breezes not much so far in kingwood.
1283. Dakster
Quoting 1276. MahFL:



Did you just wake from a coma ? massive inland flooding is forecast as TX has had 2 record wet months in a row.


Doesn't mean I wish flooding on people. I said I hope it doesn't cause it.

Drought or Flood. Mother nature apparently has a sick sense of humor.
Wow. Very interesting statistic.Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Bill is the 2nd earliest 5th named storm of the NE Pac+Atl season since 1971. Record is 2012 when Carlotta formed in NE Pac on 6/14.
NHC graphic has Bill making landfall NOW, which doesn't accord with other info.

Pouring here in Southbelt area of Houston
Good morning all. I see tropical storm conditions have reached Galveston.
1288. yoboi
Quoting 1258. weathermanwannabe:

Noting (with Bill as a TS) that it has currently been 7 years since the continental US has had an actual "major hurricane" landfall.............A remarkable statistic.


I think Wilma made landfall in 2005...
1290. ncstorm
Quoting 1287. HurrMichaelOrl:

Good morning all. I see tropical storm conditions have reached Galveston.

I first checked Galveston on Wunderground, said winds were 38 gusting to 49mph. It does not appear that the Central and upper Texas Coast is getting tropical storm force winds for the most part though yet. The Galveston webcam looks more like winds around 30 gusting to 40 mph. But it can be tough to tell.
Looking at the latest radar loops, did Bill just jog slightly toward the WNW?

At the moment, it appears that Matagorda County, TX is getting some of the worst weather that Tropical Storm Bill has to offer. Feeder bands moving in .....
Why is there little to no lightning in Bill?

Link

1294. ncstorm
US National Weather Service Eastern Region HQ added 2 new photos.
35 mins ·

Near record high temperatures and dangerously high heat index values are expected today across much of Virginia, North and South Carolina and Georgia. Remember, do not leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Under sunshine, temperatures inside cars can climb an additional 30-40 degrees in as little as 20 minutes.






winds up to 60 mph now!
I am looking at an HD radar close-up (can't post it on here) of the storm and the COC is just off-shore of the Seadrift/Port Lavaca area inshore from the barrier islands. It has not made landfall yet and I believe that the official mark will be called when the center of the coc crosses the coast. That will probably happen between Rockport and Seadrift later this morning.
Spent sometime looking at the models this morning and I see no relief across the SE US with this heat. Just unreal how hot its been. What is fascinating me is its this same ridge that has really dominated most of our Winter across FL keeping us warmer than average overall. So I went and looked at the 1997 Summer as I remember it being hotter and drier than average and sure enough it seems we are fitting that same analog. Once mid to late October hit was when the rains returned with a vengeance so we maybe seeing something similar this year to what happened in 1997. December 1997 some areas received nearly 20" of rain with reports of over 24" in Clermont west of Orlando.

Basically I suspect we might be in for a back loaded rainy pattern favoring the later part of the year as this pattern just doesn't look like it wants to breakdown.

Also Good Morning Bill!
Quoting 1294. ncstorm:

US National Weather Service Eastern Region HQ added 2 new photos.
35 mins ·

Near record high temperatures and dangerously high heat index values are expected today across much of Virginia, North and South Carolina and Georgia. Remember, do not leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Under sunshine, temperatures inside cars can climb an additional 30-40 degrees in as little as 20 minutes.







See post 1297. I'm afraid we see no relief ncstorm.
Quoting 1291. HurrMichaelOrl:


I first checked Galveston on Wunderground, said winds were 38 gusting to 49mph. It does not appear that the Central and upper Texas Coast is getting tropical storm force winds for the most part though yet. The Galveston webcam looks more like winds around 30 gusting to 40 mph. But it can be tough to tell.


Where's the rain? Almost too hot to go outside!
1300. ncstorm
Quoting 1298. StormTrackerScott:



See post 1297. I'm afraid we see no relief ncstorm.


90s for my area through Sat according to my NWS..
wilma.barely.cat.3
Morning everyone! Looking at radar, Bill is about to make landfall. Had it managed an extra 6 hours or so, it's very probable to think he would have become a hurricane.
Quoting 1297. StormTrackerScott:

Spent sometime looking at the models this morning and I see no relief across the SE US with this heat. Just unreal how hot its been. What is fascinating me is its this same ridge that has really dominated most of our Winter across FL keeping us warmer than average overall. So I went and looked at the 1997 Summer as I remember it being hotter and drier than average and sure enough it seems we are fitting that same analog. Once mid to late October hit was when the rains returned with a vengeance so we maybe seeing something similar this year to what happened in 1997. December 1997 some areas received nearly 20" of rain with reports of over 24" in Clermont west of Orlando.

Basically I suspect we might be in for a back loaded rainy pattern favoring the later part of the year as this pattern just doesn't look like it wants to breakdown.

Also Good Morning Bill!
i am happy the heat not in the northeast yet
Quoting 1300. ncstorm:



90s for my area through Sat according to my NWS..


93 to 96 with heat indices 105 nto 110 here in Orlando until God knows when. Just insane!

Quoting 1302. CybrTeddy:

Morning everyone! Looking at radar, Bill is about to make landfall. Had it managed an extra 6 hours or so, it's very probable to think he would have become a hurricane.
no hurricane maybe winds to 70 mph
Galveston Seawall Webcam Video Stream

So much traffic still visible, wouldn't this be flooded rather soon?
Quoting 1301. islander101010:

wilma.barely.cat.3
Wilma made landfall as a 125mph cat 3 with cat 4 gust.That's well into cat 3 territory and it still packed a punch even on the east coast of Florida.
A drift to the west...?

Quoting 1301. islander101010:

wilma.barely.cat.3


A Cat 3 is a cat 3 no matter how you slice. Just ask S FL residents which took a beating from Wilma.
Quoting 1297. StormTrackerScott:

Spent sometime looking at the models this morning and I see no relief across the SE US with this heat. Just unreal how hot its been. What is fascinating me is its this same ridge that has really dominated most of our Winter across FL keeping us warmer than average overall. So I went and looked at the 1997 Summer as I remember it being hotter and drier than average and sure enough it seems we are fitting that same analog. Once mid to late October hit was when the rains returned with a vengeance so we maybe seeing something similar this year to what happened in 1997. December 1997 some areas received nearly 20" of rain with reports of over 24" in Clermont west of Orlando.

Basically I suspect we might be in for a back loaded rainy pattern favoring the later part of the year as this pattern just doesn't look like it wants to breakdown.

Also Good Morning Bill!

Well I guess a dry summer and rainy fall is better than a dry summer and dry fall. Summer of '98 was the real killer and has to be about the hottest summer on record for our area.
Quoting 1307. washingtonian115:

Wilma made landfall as a 125mph cat 3 with cat 4 gust.That's well into cat 3 territory and it still packed a punch even on the east coast of Florida.


Buddy in W Palm had no power for 17 days luckily as Wilma passed a cold front dropped in lowering temps or else he said we would have had heat stroke from being so hot in the house.
Quoting 1306. skycycle:

Galveston Seawall Webcam Video Stream

So much traffic still visible, wouldn't this be flooded rather soon?


Galveston seawall is 17' high, I don't think a 60 mph tropical storm is going to breach it.
Here are a few livestream links for TV stations in the area:

FOX 7 Austin
KXAN Austin
FOX 26 Houston
Quoting 1310. HurrMichaelOrl:


Well I guess a dry summer and rainy fall is better than a dry summer and dry fall. Summer of '98 was the real killer and has to be about the hottest summer on record for our area.


Brush fires are beginning to pop up as it has been getting smokey across my area lately.


Bill is about to make landfall soon at 8:50am on june 16 2015
Oh no, if those rain bands hold up then Texas will be underwater.
Quoting 1308. ILwthrfan:

A drift to the west...?
For now, yes:

Definitely didn't expect this.
Quoting 1315. hurricanes2018:



Bill is about to make landfall soon at 8:50am on june 16 2015
Quoting 1312. 69Viking:



Galveston seawall is 17' high, I don't think a 60 mph tropical storm is going to breach it.


Haha, thanks, had no clue :) On the webcam it looks like less, but it's just the angle I guess. Still, many people out and about.
Quoting 1306. skycycle:

Galveston Seawall Webcam Video Stream

So much traffic still visible, wouldn't this be flooded rather soon?


I would doubt it with this system. I would not expect the water to come over the sea wall. Beaches to the south and north where there is no sea wall could see some over wash, but remember this system doesn't have a huge storm surge with it.
Quoting 1316. TCweatherman:

Oh no, if those rain bands hold up then Texas will be underwater.
lets hope not!!
A few more hours and we would have a hurricane but too much interaction with land.
Quoting 1317. Neapolitan:

For now, yes:


Quoting 1316. TCweatherman:

Oh no, if those rain bands hold up then Texas will be underwater.


Many areas in TX have had no rain in 2 weeks so the ground should be able to absorb atleast 5" of rain if it all doesn't fall at once.
Yep, looks like there may be a few tornadoes heading onshore as well.
Quoting 1321. hurricanes2018:

lets hope not!!
Link

my new blog on tropical storm bill
Landfall in Port O'Connor. Stay safe Texas (and other states)...and try and stay out of your vehicles if possible.
Quoting 1293. oddspeed:

Why is there little to no lightning in Bill?

Link




Tropical cyclones rarely, if ever, come with frequent lightning.
Quoting 1309. StormTrackerScott:


A Cat 3 is a cat 3 no matter how you slice. Just ask S FL residents which took a beating from Wilma.


Hi Scott-
I remember thinking that Wilma would have lost her strength by the time she came to the Florida East Coast in St. Lucie County. Rather, Wilma regained much strength as the warm Lake Okeechobee and Atlantic Ocean waters allowed her to regain strength before she left the state. I remember my son telling me to watch the recycling bin (smaller size back then)go flying over the house across the street.

I never underestimated any storm after that.
1329. txjac
Quoting 1319. skycycle:



Haha, thanks, had no clue :) On the webcam it looks like less, but it's just the angle I guess. Still, many people out and about.


It's hard to explain the feeling you get when a storm is coming in ...even though it a TS you can really feel the power of mother nature ...the smell of the salt water, the bite of the sand/mist/rain one your face, the roar of the ocean ...close your eyes ...wild feeling ...hard to explain.
Now the second most anomalous warm pool ever only to 1997 but just barely!

Stronger the El-Nino the more effect across the South especially FL & California this Fall/Winter
its look like tropical storm bill move to the west in the last few hours!
1332. HCW
1333. hydrus
Quoting 1262. Neapolitan:

Well, seven years. Or four years. But, still, remarkable.
Ike was a nightmare hurricane for many..Killed over 100 and almost 40 billion in damage. 3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
Quoting 1328. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-
I remember thinking that Wilma would have lost her strength by the time she came to the Florida East Coast in St. Lucie County. Rather, Wilma reagined much strength as the warm Lake Okeechobee and Atlantic Ocean waters allowed her to regain strength before she left the state. I remember my son telling me to watch the recycling bin (smaller size back then)go flying over the house across the street.

I never underestimated any storm after that.


Remember S FL is mostly swamp land too so storms really don't weaken as they cross S FL.
Looking at the Please Pier Cam now, conditions have picked up quite a bit.
Quoting 1329. txjac:



It's hard to explain the feeling you get when a storm is coming in ...even though it a TS you can really feel the power of mother nature ...the smell of the salt water, the bit of the sand/mist/rain one your face, to roar of the ocean ...close your eyes ...wild feeling ...hard to explain.
Believe me I know the EXACT feeling you are mentioning.
Quoting 1332. HCW:




Tornadoes are always a worry with Gulf systems more so than Atlantic systems for whatever reason.
1338. sar2401
Quoting 1293. oddspeed:

Why is there little to no lightning in Bill?

Link


Most tropical storms don't have much lightning except in outer bands over the water. Bill has always been a little weaker than most and never really developed those outer bands. That does not diminish the tornado threat however.
Quoting 1311. StormTrackerScott:



Buddy in W Palm had no power for 17 days luckily as Wilma passed a cold front dropped in lowering temps or else he said we would have had heat stroke from being so hot in the house.
We had tons of rain from that front up here.It did nothing but rain that whole day and switched constantly from moderate to heavy.
Quoting 1329. txjac:



It's hard to explain the feeling you get when a storm is coming in ...even though it a TS you can really feel the power of mother nature ...the smell of the salt water, the bite of the sand/mist/rain one your face, to roar of the ocean ...close your eyes ...wild feeling ...hard to explain.
BTW how are the weather conditions so far over there?
this will be the year of land falling storms and and close too home storms fourming bill is now are olny 2nd name storm of the season too make land fall in the USA
Quoting 1339. washingtonian115:

We had tons of rain from that front up here.It did nothing but rain that whole day and switched constantly from moderate to heavy.


Is it still hot up by you too or has the heat broke down some for you guys. Capital Gang said DC area has already surpassed 2014's total number 90 degree days
1343. MahFL
Quoting 1314. StormTrackerScott:



Brush fires are beginning to pop up as it has been getting smokey across my area lately.


We have had smoke occasionally here in NE FL too.
1344. sar2401
Quoting 1324. TCweatherman:

Yep, looks like there may be a few tornadoes heading onshore as well.
The tornadoes don't usually head ashore but develop over land. Don't start arm flapping on me. :-)
I'm getting excited.
Quoting 1341. Tazmanian:

this will be the year of land falling storms and and close too home storms fourming bill is now are olny 2nd name storm of the season too make land fall in the USA
Quoting 1297. StormTrackerScott:

Spent sometime looking at the models this morning and I see no relief across the SE US with this heat. Just unreal how hot its been. What is fascinating me is its this same ridge that has really dominated most of our Winter across FL keeping us warmer than average overall. So I went and looked at the 1997 Summer as I remember it being hotter and drier than average and sure enough it seems we are fitting that same analog. Once mid to late October hit was when the rains returned with a vengeance so we maybe seeing something similar this year to what happened in 1997. December 1997 some areas received nearly 20" of rain with reports of over 24" in Clermont west of Orlando.

Basically I suspect we might be in for a back loaded rainy pattern favoring the later part of the year as this pattern just doesn't look like it wants to breakdown.

Also Good Morning Bill!


We're getting plenty of rain on the west coast, especially Tampa. Another borderline severe thunderstorm moved through Tampa last night bringing very heavy rain and tons of lightning.
olny a matter of time be for we get a hurrican landfalling storm has we now all ready have had 2 TS land falling storms
1348. MahFL
On the radar it looks like it's about to landfall, but what happens is the bands tighten up into a smaller circle so landfall is delayed a bit more.
there might be a an area of disturbed weather ,trying to form southeast of tropical storm Bil.l in the bay of campeche.
there is some vorticity in the area.
1350. sar2401
Quoting 1316. TCweatherman:

Oh no, if those rain bands hold up then Texas will be underwater.
Seriously now, let's deep breath together. :-) Texas is a big state, and it's not going underwater. So far, at least, the rainfall has been less than feared.
00z runs (Tues June 16) of GFS and Euro both have this system strengthening after landfall.

The "red dirt effect"
....
Quoting 1348. MahFL:

On the radar it looks like it's about to landfall, but what happens is the bands tighten up into a smaller circle so landfall is delayed a bit more.


The coc has taken a slight SW jog in the last few radar frames towards the Rockport area and still just offshore.....It does not appear to be in a rush to move ashore.
1354. MahFL
The NHC said the models differ on what is going to happen to Bill after landfall, anyone have any idea's on the options ?
i saw a few tropical storms strengthening on land before
1356. txjac
Quoting 1340. Tornado6042008X:

BTW how are the weather conditions so far over there?


Actually just started raining about 15 minutes ago, it's dark and very, very humid. Good thing I got the pup out early for a walk. The outdoor kitties are still showing up to eat before they run off and hide where ever they go when it rains.
Just a bit breezy
1358. sar2401
Quoting 1302. CybrTeddy:

Morning everyone! Looking at radar, Bill is about to make landfall. Had it managed an extra 6 hours or so, it's very probable to think he would have become a hurricane.
Probably a little more than six hours but these Texas storm always have the ability to get hurricane status it seems. As long as the total rainfall is within reason, Texas may have dodged a bullet on this.
warning!!!!! WATCH OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY!! Severe Storms, Flash Flood Risk in the Northeast

1360. txjac
Double post - removed
1361. sar2401
Quoting 1354. MahFL:

The NHC said the models differ on what is going to happen to Bill after landfall, anyone have any idea's on the options ?
Some show the remnants holding together as they move north and east and others show more weakening and dissipation.
Quoting 1359. hurricanes2018:

warning!!!!! WATCH OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY!! Severe Storms, Flash Flood Risk in the Northeast




Quoting 1346. tampabaymatt:



We're getting plenty of rain on the west coast, especially Tampa. Another borderline severe thunderstorm moved through Tampa last night bringing very heavy rain and tons of lightning.

The eastern half of the FL Peninsula is getting very dry, but I saw that storm on the radar yesterday evening in the Tampa area.
Raining now in kingwood, just heard the 1st rumble of thunder.
Pretty calm as expected right now just NE of Austin. Clouds are moving along pretty fast. Calling for 8-12 inches of rain. We've already had 32" this year, average annual is 34".

Current conditions at
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport (KGTU)

Lat: 30.68 NLon: 97.68 WElev: 791ft.

Fog/Mist
75F
24C
Humidity 94%
Wind Speed NE 7 mph
Barometer 29.94 in
Dewpoint 73F (23C)
Visibility 6.00 mi
Last update 16 Jun 7:50 am CDT

Quoting 1343. MahFL:



We have had smoke occasionally here in NE FL too.


Smoke the last couple of mornings here in the Panhandle around Destin too. We have the Eglin reservation to our North and it could be from controlled burns or fires started by lightning from sea breeze afternoon inland thunderstorms. Usually just smoky in the morning when winds are light, by mid morning the South winds kick in and move it away from the coastal areas.
Wanted to share my site as it has some useful links and graphics you might like. Link
Quoting 1363. HurrMichaelOrl:


The eastern half of the FL Peninsula is getting very dry, but I saw that storm on the radar yesterday evening in the Tampa area.


The difference in rainfall between the western portion of FL and the eastern is pretty remarkable. I believe the Ft. Lauderdale reporting station is at less than an inch for the past 30 days, whereas I have had over 15" during that time period. Personally, I'm fine with it as I never have to run my sprinklers, everything is lush and green, lakes are full, rivers are healthy, etc. But, what concerns me is if this pattern of a strong high pressure ridge leading to a SE flow that keeps all of the sea breeze storms pinned to the west coast doesn't break down, we could see some bad flooding in the Tampa Bay area when El Nino rears it's head in late fall.
Katy,,in Ft Bend County,,,,,still relatively dry...but getting darker by the minute..
Quoting 1212. cyberbiker:

All the U.S. Weather stations have disappeared from the Wunderground Map whether using the browser or iPhone app.

Where does Weather Underground post server problems and maintenance notices?



not just US ... anyone else notice missing pws on wundermap?
1372. MahFL
Center Point Energy outages just went up a touch to 291.
Interesting how Bill has a lot of convective bands to its southeast, still offshore.

The storm appears elongated, but the center still seems to be possibly consolidating a bit. On radar, it has taken a WNW or westerly jog, just before landfall ... in near future. Will it resume its NW track?

Looking back at some of the other central Texas hurricane and tropical storm landfalls, some of them have actually made landfall, and moved due westerly, or WSW. Claudette (2003), and Fern (1971).
1374. sar2401
Quoting 1366. 69Viking:



Smoke the last couple of mornings here in the Panhandle around Destin too. We have the Eglin reservation to our North and it could be from controlled burns or fires started by lightning from sea breeze afternoon inland thunderstorms. Usually just smoky in the morning when winds are light, by mid morning the South winds kick in and move it away from the coastal areas.
There's been a lot of underbrush burning in the pine plantations over the last couple of days here. They are taking advantage of the light winds along with our heatwave. I'm glad I'm not out there having to do it.
1375. sar2401
Quoting 1372. MahFL:

Center Point Energy outages just went up a touch to 291.
291 total?
1376. MahFL
Upper outflow is getting better on Bill, so strengthening is likely, note the outflowing cirrus :

1377. sar2401
Quoting 1371. Invisabull:

My front page only shows a red map marker. No temperatures, and the forecast gizmo is blank. Seems like some bandwidth issues. The A team comes in this morning with more bailing wire so we should be OK soon...
RECON finds Bill with lower pressures 998mb
1379. sar2401
Quoting 1367. RCThunder:

Wanted to share my site as it has some useful links and graphics you might like. Link
spaghettimodels is your site? Since when?
1380. LargoFl
1381. sar2401
Quoting 1378. wunderkidcayman:

RECON finds Bill with lower pressures 998mb
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Quoting 1374. sar2401:

There's been a lot of underbrush burning in the pine plantations over the last couple of days here. They are taking advantage of the light winds along with our heatwave. I'm glad I'm not out there having to do it.


No kidding, being out there in this heat with fire suits on has to suck.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1377. sar2401:

My front page only shows a red map marker. No temperatures, and the forecast gizmo is blank. Seems like some bandwidth issues. The A team comes in this morning with more bailing wire so we should be OK soon...


thanks sar ... when there is a problem i tend to wonder if just me ... chuckles
according to RECON data (VORTEX MESSAGES) it appears that bill is moving steadily W-WSW

we could do with another pass and VORTEX MESSAGE to confirm some more
Quoting 1378. wunderkidcayman:

RECON finds Bill with lower pressures 998mb
WOW!