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Dangerous Category 3 Odile Bearing Down on Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:43 PM GMT on September 14, 2014

Dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Odile is bearing down on Mexico's Baja Peninsula as the storm steams north-northwestwards at 14 mph towards the southwestern tip of Baja. Odile is likely to be the strongest or second strongest hurricane on record to affect Southern Baja. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was in Odile Sunday afternoon, and measured top surface winds of 125 mph, with a surface pressure of 922 mb. This pressure puts Odile in pretty select company--only two other Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures measured in them by the Hurricane Hunters--though a total of eleven Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures, if we include satellite-estimated pressures. The only major hurricane on record to affect Southern Baja was Hurricane Kiko of 1989, which moved ashore on the Gulf of California side of the peninsula just south of La Paz as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 2 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Hurricane Odile taken at 4:46 EDT Sunday, September 14, 2014. Image credit: Conagua.

Odile put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification Saturday night, going from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds in just 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large eye and impressive area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms. The eyewall of Odile is likely to pass over or just to the west of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula just before midnight PDT Sunday night. The 2 pm PDT Sunday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the southwestern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 99% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 84% chance of hurricane-force winds. These odds were 99% and 47%, respectively for San Jose del Cabo, about 30 miles farther to the northeast.


Figure 3. Tracks of all Category 2 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 75 miles of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula (light circle) between 1949 - 2013. Only one major hurricane--Hurricane Kiko of 1989--hit Baja during this time span. Data taken from NOAA/CSC's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Links
Mexican radar
Villa del Palmar Beach Resort & Spa livecam in Cabo San Lucas

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 493. BayFog:


I'm not sure what the dominant tracking force would be in this situation. Since the Gulf SSTs are considerably warmer than those on the west coast, there ought to be a lower pressure bias toward the Gulf, drawing the storm in that direction. But then there's also an upper level low developing off the California coast with a jet max by Wednesday which could pull the storm to the west.


It's possible. Mesoscale influences are more important to tropical cyclones than many people realize.
I cant stay any longer off too sleep I go

first light will tell the tale

I fear the worse but hope for the best

Quoting 499. vis0:

These might be already posted webcams LIVe CAMS (Cabo) http://www.cabovillas.com/webcams.asp


Most of them are down...Not cam id 14 though. Tough little camera. Can't make much of anything out other than the fact that it is still there.

Quoting 492. kristywoods:

I just read on twitter that many residential houses have collapsed. I hope they were evacuated.
Do you know what area? I live in Baja, but I'm in San Diego right now.
Quoting 503. yankees440:



Well we already know that the eastern track on that model map is wrong, but it does look like there will be some travel over the 31-32 C SSTs of the Gulf, at least for the eastern semi-circle of the storm.
Quoting 505. Ketara:


Do you know what area? I live in Baja, but I'm in San Diego right now.



12:19 a.m. MDT: There are disturbing but unconfirmed reports from the Tribuna de los Cabos newspaper of houses collapsing in residential areas of Cabo San Lucas.

This is what I read. I wish I could read spanish. A lot of the tweets are in spanish.
Why is the Weather Channel running a program on Frostbite? We all have cable and sat tv down there, what are they thinking? We are neighbors and most of the visitors are from the US and Canada. Really?
Quoting 506. BayFog:


Well we already know that the eastern track on that model map is wrong, but it does look like there will be some travel over the 31-32 C SSTs of the Gulf, at least for the eastern semi-circle of the storm.


Deep convection around what seems to be the center. Just off the W coast.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. A WIND GUST TO 114
MPH...183 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR CABO SAN
LUCAS.

Quoting 498. StormJunkie:

More heavy convection developing right around the center which seems to be just off the NW coast of Cabo.


Todos Santos is getting pounded.
Quoting 508. Ketara:

Why is the Weather Channel running a program on Frostbite? We all have cable and sat tv down there, what are they thinking? We are neighbors and most of the visitors are from the US and Canada. Really?



Not sure if you were on earlier...But apparently Mike Sleidel was on his way to Cabo, but flights were grounded and he's stuck in Mexico City Airport. Bottom line, is they shouldn't have waited until the last minute to go.
Quoting 495. Ketara:

Any word on surge? I am so worried about that, these areas are so isolated and not really capable of responding to any of this in an a good way. This is going to be catostrophic. When will we know about the surge?


Well I know the lower coast is steep. Nearly 200 feet high all the way around it at only like a 1 mile inland. Higher from there on. Anything on a beach could be at risk. Will be at least one strong onshore flow to the right of the eye and probably some up the whole east coast. People should be able to be out of the reach of any surge.

Shane McCoy @shanedmccoy · now

#hurricaneodile is slowing down here at San Jose del cabo. Massive damage but alive and well


Ok, I've got to get some sleep. Want to be able to spend a little time on here tomorrow before I have to go to work. Night all.

Stay strong Baja Pen.

Quoting 512. StormJunkie:



Not sure if you were on earlier...But apparently Mike Sleidel was on his way to Cabo, but flights were grounded and he's stuck in Mexico City Airport. Bottom line, is they shouldn't have waited until the last minute to go.
Thanks, StormJunkie, I missed that newsflash. Of course he is stuck in Mexico City. They're also dealing with whatever that wave is all over the central part of Mexico, besides the fact that there is no way to get into Baja Sur for  the immediate future unless on an Army plane. Nice.

Quoting 507. kristywoods:



12:19 a.m. MDT: There are disturbing but unconfirmed reports from the Tribuna de los Cabos newspaper of houses collapsing in residential areas of Cabo San Lucas.

This is what I read. I wish I could read spanish. A lot of the tweets are in spanish.
Thank you so much.
Weather channel is reporting an earthquake?

"Just in: Preliminary 5.2 #earthquake near San Felipe, Baja California minutes ago. This is well north of the area #Odile is slamming."
Quoting 517. kristywoods:

Weather channel is reporting an earthquake?

Just in: Preliminary 5.2 #earthquake near San Felipe, Baja California minutes ago. This is well north of the area #Odile is slamming.


For real? Sheesh. BAD night for Baja.
iCyclone
1 am. I found Steve-- we were tearfully reunited. I say tearfully because I was so happy to find him in the chaos I got emotional. After waling the flooded, dark hallways alone, I found him sheltered in a bathroom next to the lobby with two other guests. Steve was in the cloud of flying glass as that wall exploded. Like us, he had to run like hell-- and like me, he was bloodied. Steve saw me and my partners scampering like rats across the lobby earlier-- when we made our escape-- but I didn't hear his calling over the roar of the wind. What you see here is my leg-- dressed in a towel-- Steve's wound dressed in duct tape, and a shoe he fashioned out of duct tape (because he lost his). We're in an interior hall now. We're OK. I think the wind is quieting down. I think. Parts of the hotel are smashed beyond recognition.
Quoting 517. kristywoods:

Weather channel is reporting an earthquake?

"Just in: Preliminary 5.2 #earthquake near San Felipe, Baja California minutes ago. This is well north of the area #Odile is slamming."

Not even a worthy quake.
Quoting 521. TheEyeiscalm:



Not a place to be for a relaxing holiday!
Looking at that map, the whole south east coast will now be getting a massive storm surge as the winds come directly in from the sea.
I would also assume that they have little or no power right now and its about 1 am.
Apparently one of the people writing the Wikipedia article on Odile can read spanish, because they cited a spanish article that discussed the homes that were destroyed. They wrote,
"Due to a combination of high waves and storm surge, 69 buildings in Acapulco were damaged, including 18 restaurants and a portion of a scenic walkway."
Edouard now a cat. 2 hurricane.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 100 101 104 103 101 93 78 62 49 42
V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 100 101 104 103 101 93 78 62 49 42
V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 99 101 100 97 90 84 78 68 58 49 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 10 9 10 2 12 21 39 44 44 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 0 1 3 4 9 5 -3 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 145 122 116 133 125 115 225 190 223 242 268 281 291
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.1 27.2 26.2 25.0 23.7 22.0 21.7 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 155 138 128 119 108 99 89 86 93
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 140 137 133 119 112 104 96 87 78 75 79
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.8 -53.5 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 4 2 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 43 43 49 51 52 50 51 52 49 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 32 35 34 35 35 31 26 22 21
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -21 -18 -17 -33 -4 -12 8 5 -2 -18 -20 16
200 MB DIV 58 40 38 31 6 82 88 95 50 42 29 -6 -1
700-850 TADV 5 6 4 4 5 3 22 8 20 20 11 9 0
LAND (KM) 1508 1487 1478 1494 1517 1549 1369 1177 938 934 1140 1375 1593
LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.4 31.3 33.6 36.1 38.7 40.6 41.7 41.7 40.8
LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.9 55.8 56.4 57.0 57.0 55.8 53.2 49.4 45.1 40.6 37.3 35.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 11 14 18 19 18 15 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 30 29 27 21 15 19 15 2 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -33. -37. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. 13. 11. 3. -12. -28. -41. -48.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 23( 46) 26( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Did a blog update on Edouard and Odile if you guys are interested.

Out for now. Good night, and I hope everyone on the peninsula stays safe. I suspect the damage will be quite extensive.


Good morning with threatening waves at Baja from Odile.

Quoting dfwstormwatch:
iCyclone
1 am. I found Steve-- we were tearfully reunited. I say tearfully because I was so happy to find him in the chaos I got emotional. After waling the flooded, dark hallways alone, I found him sheltered in a bathroom next to the lobby with two other guests. Steve was in the cloud of flying glass as that wall exploded. Like us, he had to run like hell-- and like me, he was bloodied. Steve saw me and my partners scampering like rats across the lobby earlier-- when we made our escape-- but I didn't hear his calling over the roar of the wind. What you see here is my leg-- dressed in a towel-- Steve's wound dressed in duct tape, and a shoe he fashioned out of duct tape (because he lost his). We're in an interior hall now. We're OK. I think the wind is quieting down. I think. Parts of the hotel are smashed beyond recognition.


There was an outside chance Hurricane Jimena would hit Cabo San Lucas back in Sept. 2009...so I packed my high category hurricane gear when I chased this storm.

It's too bad the iCyclone guys are all beat up and bloody by this storm. They might have considered wearing protective gear...but have surviving that BIG typhoon last year without a scratch...I can see where they might think themselves immortal.



NBC News included me in an article about Jimena. That is where I found this pic of me.

Link

Quoting 527. CycloneOz:



There was an outside chance Hurricane Jimena would hit Cabo San Lucas back in Sept. 2009...so I packed my high category hurricane gear when I chased this storm.

It's too bad the iCyclone guys are all beat up and bloody by this storm. They might have considered wearing protective gear...but have surviving that BIG typhoon last year without a scratch...I can see where they might think themselves immortal.



NBC News included me in an article about Jimena. That is where I found this pic of me.

Link
I have to admit I admire your modesty. Not everyone would willingly incur the excess baggage fee the airlines charge. That gear looks heavy.

You should get a special logo for your outfit so the locals will know you're a storm expert next time you vacation in a high-risk environment.
we might get our atlantic storm after all. area 8N 33W looks very promising. in the exact position of Ivan 1n 2004.
530. beell
Tucson with the wildcard guess.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
242 AM MST MON SEP 15 2014

...OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT /FOLLOWING THIS EVENING`S DECAYING STORMS/ AND PWATS WILL SKYROCKET CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY BE UNHEARD OF FOR SEPTEMBER...EXCEPT WE SAW SIMILAR VALUES JUST LAST WEEK. ELEVATED PWATS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...IF NOT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH USHERS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. WHERE THE AXIS WAS ONCE POSITIONED SQUARELY OVER THE COLORADO RIVER...ITS NOW SPREAD OVER A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AS USUAL...TRYING TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SEEM TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY /PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING/...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THURSDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE TIMES AS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IMPACTS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

...PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON HURRICANE ODILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RESURGENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS ODILE HUGGING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING NEAR THE BAJA SPUR BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER IDEAL TRACK TO FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF ODILE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NORBERT WHICH AIDED IN THE FLOODING THIS PAST WEEK...THE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LACKING. THAT SAID...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COMPARE THE OUTCOME OF THIS PAST WEEK TO WHAT MAY EVOLVE WITH THE PROJECTED WEATHER SCENARIO THIS WEEK. THIS LACK OF DIRECT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARED TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL QPF VALUES WHICH CONTINUED TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST RAIN EVENT. NONETHELESS...A WET PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER PAST THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS COMING WEEKEND...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 15 2014

...AFTER THAT ODILE AND THE DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH DICTATE OUR WEATHER. MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE SLAMMED INTO FAR SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 2 AM FORECAST TRACK THAT BRINGS THE REMNANT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AS A DEPRESSION. AT THAT POINT IT COULD TRACK RIGHT OVER US AND COMPLETE A SOLID DRENCHING FOR MUCH OF SE AZ. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH HOW WELL SHE MAINTAINS HER INTENSITY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR HER TRACK AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEK. OUR FOCUS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE EARLY TO LATE TUESDAY IS ON 18Z WED TO 06Z FRI (LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) TIME PERIOD WITH THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ANY TIME AFTER MONDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE ONE PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERAL. OUR CURRENT 5 DAY STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM .75 TO 1.75 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WPC ESTIMATES. IT`S LIKELY TO BE A BUSY WEEK BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DOWN PERIODS IN BETWEEN OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES...
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a warmer 69 degrees this morning, but I'm still enjoying it while I can.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: scrambled eggs with onions and green peppers, hash browns, sausage, fried mushroom and tomatoes, baked beans, French toast, cinnamon oatmeal, fresh fruit, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Surf-forecast.com's surf report for the Cabo area as of last night at 11 p.m. showed a forecast of 29.5 foot surf at midnight, dropping to 11.5 feet by 9 a.m. (Cabo local time). Kind of mind-blowing. No idea how that translates in terms of surge.
rough night in cabo one internet article said they are having more rain in a hr than they are suppose to get in one yr. wow. here it is a pretty morning with another nice sunrise. e cen fl.
I got my skype up Brian.
535. MahFL
The cloud tops did not warm much at all near the eye as Odile made landfall. I suspect she was still sucking up warm water being so large and all.
Good Morning..

16.8 inches of rain..when was the last time we saw those amounts for a hurricane..

Why not find a good perch to film the storm itself, outside, with a spotlight, or headlights of their parked vehicle. Why travel all that way to simply blog from a hotel lobby; detailing one's ups and downs and other "thoughts."

the chaser could be in an apartment in new york city for all we know.
540. MahFL
Quoting 537. canebeard:

This icyclone (third person entity) is a drama queen..


I too was not sure why he'd be anywhere near plate glass when a big hurricane is ontop of you, seems kinda risky.
Lordy'



hard to top the chaser. ex 93 has a moisture envelop seems to be headed towards the windwds
Quoting 541. Patrap:

Lordy'





Morning Pat, how you feeling? How's the healing coming along?
Morningover dere,

Doing well, Pedley, up early to get ready for Monday morning VA PT session @ 8am.
545. MahFL
I just saw a pic of corrugated plastic shields being put on windows on the Baja peninsular, anyone have any experience of how well they work ?
Quoting 532. EdwardinAlaska:

Surf-forecast.com's surf report for the Cabo area as of last night at 11 p.m. showed a forecast of 29.5 foot surf at midnight, dropping to 11.5 feet by 9 a.m. (Cabo local time). Kind of mind-blowing. No idea how that translates in terms of surge.

No problem, if they moved everything that was below that elevation to say 50 ft. Tarps don't work very well in high winds. Luckily for them Cabo is fairly hilly by Florida standards.
Quoting Ketara:
Any word on surge? I am so worried about that, these areas are so isolated and not really capable of responding to any of this in an a good way. This is going to be catostrophic.%uFFFD When will we know about the surge?
Surge Foto from earlier today, way before Odile roared in: http://www.oem.com.mx/elsudcaliforniano/notas/n353 8055.htm

I don't know for sure, the weather guy on channel 8 in San Diego is saying now that Odile is going to cut up over Todos Santos, on west coast north of Cabo. That sounds terrible- they are fairly isolated, it's a beautiful village.
Also, Cabo Pulmo, the great national park reef on the gulf side,%uFFFD is taking it pretty hard.
http://www.cabopulmopark.com/thereef.html
I feel so sorry for everybody down there now.



"If" people listen to local government and evacuate the beach front they should be okay from surge.
Elevation rises quickly as you move away from the beaches.
I would be afraid of flash flooding and wind damage. I've been to Baja and there are a lot of people living in very poorly constructed homes on hill sides.
There could be mud slides and flash flooding that could do serious damage to these areas. And just the wind alone could destroy these poorly constructed homes.

Quoting Pallis1:
No problem, if they moved everything that was below that elevation to say 50 ft. Tarps don't work very well in high winds. Luckily for them Cabo is fairly hilly by Florida standards.


Yeah, I posted this yesterday evening. All but the beaches in Cabo are at a pretty high elevation.
In Cabo, as soon as you leave the beach area you're already getting to 30+ ft. above sea level.

Eduoard looks to be on his way to becoming a major hurricane.
Quoting Sharkicane:
Apparently one of the people writing the Wikipedia article on Odile can read spanish, because they cited a spanish article that discussed the homes that were destroyed. They wrote,
"Due to a combination of high waves and storm surge, 69 buildings in Acapulco were damaged, including 18 restaurants and a portion of a scenic walkway."

Most of us on Wikipedia can, otherwise our articles would be incomplete. :)
Eduoard will be on it way to becoming a major hurricane.
Anyone else find a Low pressure system off..oh the georgia/caroline coastline about 100-120 hours from now?
Looks like Cabo's weather radar stopped working during the night.
It won't update its image or loop.
556. MahFL
Quoting 554. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like Cabo's weather radar stopped working during the night.
It won't update its image or loop.


Not to be unexpected.
Can anyone confirm the 29.4' storm surge in Cabo? This is what I heard on the news earlier this morning
Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone else find a Low pressure system off..oh the georgia/caroline coastline about 100-120 hours from now?


NAM produces a low off Florida, but NAM takes it OTS.

GFS is a little slower....at 144 hours............................................. ....
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Quoting 558. Sfloridacat5:



NAM produces a low off Florida, but NAM takes it OTS.


ok TY..ive been watching this Low for several days now on the models...one had it onland in florida before moving out into the atlantic...we'll see in a week what happens.
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS is a little slower....at 144 hours............................................. ....


What's funny is over the weekend everything was going from east to west.
Now that pattern has changed and everything is going to be moving west to east across Florida.
That's going to bring Florida a lot of rain.

We need to look for a possible low to form in the GOM along the front and more toward Florida.
Anything that forms east of Florida should go OTS with the pattern setting up this week.

But this pattern could pull something up out of the Caribbean "if" we get a system down there. We'll have to watch for that later this week into next week.
Go Ed go!.

Quoting 546. Pallis1:
Luckily for them Cabo is fairly hilly by Florida standards.
The local landfill is hilly by Florida standards!
Quoting 562. Sfloridacat5:



What's funny is over the weekend everything was going from east to west.
Now that pattern has changed and everything is going to be moving west to east across Florida.
That's going to bring Florida a lot of rain.

We need to look for a possible low to form in the GOM along the front and more toward Florida.
Anything that forms east of Florida should go OTS with the pattern setting up this week.

But this pattern could pull something up out of the Caribbean "if" we get a system down there. We'll have to watch for that later this week into next week.
yeah next week could get interesting for us.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
438 am EDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Short term [tonight through wednesday]...

The end of the very stagnant synoptic weather pattern which has
dominated our region for much of the month of September thus far is
finally in sight.
This pattern, which has resulted in unseasonably
warm and wet conditions in the absence of any organized tropical
activity, has indeed helped many areas catch up in rainfall from the
record or near record dry conditions this past meteorological
Summer. For example, Tallahassee had its driest period of June,
July, and August of all time with with only 8.99 inches of rainfall,
which happens to be the only time on record this period has ever been
below 10 inches.
Through sept. 14, 5.14 inches of rain has already
fallen this month, and if 3.86 inches of additional rain were to
fall during the next 3 days (which is certainly possible), then the
September rainfall would already exceed that of the entire Summer.

The defining features of this month so far (which is also averaging
nearly 3 degrees above normal in temperature every day) have been
characterized by a weak sfc pressure gradient and a stubborn "dirty"
upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer moisture (pwats between
1.8" and 2.2")
continuing to flow into the County Warning Area from western Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico. This ample moisture will remain in place across
the region through at least Tuesday night, and with the upper ridge
finally expected to break down and retrograde westward, a steepening
upper level trof will initially help energize the above mentioned
sfc boundary, increasing the chances for another period of heavy
rainfall on Tuesday, possibly lingering into Tuesday night. While
mean storm total rainfall amounts are generally expected to be in
the 1" to 3" inch range across the entire region, isolated amounts
of 3" to 5" or even 4" to 6" could be possible (especially near the
coast of the Florida Panhandle and western big bend) before all is said
and done on Wednesday. However, since these higher amounts should be
isolated as well as spread out over 3 days, the threat for any
widespread flooding appears minimal at this time. Additionally,
during each successive run of the global models during the past few
days, the trend in both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) has been to accelerate the
steepening of the trof which will help push the stalled out boundary
through as a cold front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will
put a quick end to the heavy rain chances, and may even bring a slight
taste of fall to the region by the end of the week.




Long term [wednesday night through sunday]...

As the upper level trough deepens and moves south, the stalled
frontal boundary will move off to the southeast bringing in slightly
drier air.
With the drier air behind the trof and cold front, pops
drop into the 10 to 30% range for the upcoming period. We will see a
taste of cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows in
the mid to upper 60s.
JB said in his video that our Winter could resemble the 1976/1977 Winter across the US. I wasn't alive then but can someone shed some light on this. I believe that C FL saw snow that winter.
well NM and Arizona might be getting alot of rain as this system moves over them...........
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video that our Winter could resemble the 1976/1977 Winter across the US. I wasn't alive then but can someone shed some light on this. I believe that C FL saw snow that winter.
On January 19, 1977, Old Man Winter paid an unwelcomed visit to residents of Miami, Florida (yes, Florida, not Ohio) and brought along a surprise gift -- snow! For the first time in the history of the extreme south of Florida, snow danced through the air and dusted the ground briefly. A quarter century later, the scene has not been repeated.
soon to be yet another one out there...........................................
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video that our Winter could resemble the 1976/1977 Winter across the US. I wasn't alive then but can someone shed some light on this. I believe that C FL saw snow that winter.
My family and I were over in Germany at the time and didn't come back until April 1977.I did hear though that it was the last time the Potomac was completely frozen over.
Quoting 570. LargoFl:

On January 19, 1977, Old Man Winter paid an unwelcomed visit to residents of Miami, Florida (yes, Florida, not Ohio) and brought along a surprise gift -- snow! For the first time in the history of the extreme south of Florida, snow danced through the air and dusted the ground briefly. A quarter century later, the scene has not been repeated.


With this El-Nino and a active southern jet the southern US should do very well snowfall wise this Winter. It seems as if El-Nino will be declared in December and it appears to be gaining momentum now.


Quoting 572. washingtonian115:

My family and I were over in Germany at the time and didn't come back until April 1977.I did hear though that it was the last time the Potomac was completely frozen over.



JB keeps saying that the 500mb pattern looks very interesting this winter across the east with storms riding up from the Gulf and up the eastern US.
Odile is going right up Baja. That's pretty remarkable.
That will tear it down a lot faster.

If it had gone just slightly to the east up the Gulf of California it could have contiuned as a strong system for a lot longer.

I'm not wishing anything bad on anyone, but it would be crazy to see a strong tropical system move into Arizona.
Boy the E-Pac just can't catch a break. Very strong MJO is about to move in across the E-Pac.

Quoting 575. StormTrackerScott:



JB keeps saying that the 500mb pattern looks very interesting this winter across the east with storms riding up from the Gulf and up the eastern US.
Ohhh I hope (Rubs hands).I'm mad I didn't get to experience one of D.C's greatest winters the 76-77 winter.But I can definitely feel fall in the air this morning.I did get to experience 79-80 though.They don't make winters like they use to.2013-2014 was a classic..well mainly January 2014 and onward until April.
Intermediate public advisory 21A from NHC at 5 a.m. PDT

Excerpt...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST
HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H AND A GUST TO 89
MPH...143 KM/H...WERE REPORTED AT LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

:

Quoting 564. washingtonian115:

Go Ed go!.
I'm on it. Tell me where to go and I'm there.
Quoting 578. washingtonian115:

Ohhh I hope (Rubs hands).I'm mad I didn't get to experience one of D.C's greatest winters the 76-77 winter.But I can definitely feel fall in the air this morning.I did get to experience 79-80 though.They don't make winters like they use to.2013-2014 was a classic..well mainly January 2014 and onward until April.


JB said in his video this morning the the 1976/1977 seems to be the best analog for this Winter. I would tend to agree based on all the ridging I am see in the long range CFS model across Canada and a strong southern jet.

Something like this would be interesting because if we get the southern and northern branch to phase from time to time then it wouldn't take much to drop these Arctic highs south kinda like what we saw in 2010.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


With this El-Nino and a active southern jet the southern US should do very well snowfall wise this Winter. It seems as if El-Nino will be declared in December and it appears to be gaining momentum now.




Awesome man! So glad we have a blogger that can see into the future and tell us all we need to know :o)
I am hearing very little from Cabo this morning. Hoping for the best but the situation seems grim there.
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video that our Winter could resemble the 1976/1977 Winter across the US. I wasn't alive then but can someone shed some light on this. I believe that C FL saw snow that winter.

That winter in SW PA saw the rivers freeze so much that oil shipments and barges could not travel causing heating oil issues for many. In my area at the time schools were closed to save heating oil for houses. 7 days of school that year in January and a couple more than that in February. lots of snow (for SW PA)
Quoting 581. GeoffreyWPB:


Wonder if it's already "off course" and heading for that hot water in Gulf of California.
587. MahFL
Quoting 562. Sfloridacat5:
If it had gone just slightly to the east up the Gulf of California it could have contiuned as a strong system for a lot longer.

I'm not wishing anything bad on anyone, but it would be crazy to see a strong tropical system move into Arizona.


Looks to me the eye is partly back over water in the Gulf of California.


go up very fast!!! watch out for heavy snow in the northeast this winter
What causes the surging in the IR time loop animation of Odile?

the snow in central Florida back then only lasted briefly at the tips of fur coats. Nothing I saw in Leesburg stuck on the ground. Florida snow is way cold, but not impressive by northern standards.
It is like rain in Las Vegas, nobody can drive in it and locals freak out. But from areas that get twice that amount in an hour instead of a decade it is unimpressive.
Quoting 544. Patrap:

Morningover dere,

Doing well, Pedley, up early to get ready for Monday morning VA PT session @ 8am.


sadomasochists...good luck Pat!
Quoting 5478422. StormJunkie:

SW shear impacting Odile, or is that appearance from the terrain?




nice looking hurricane
593. PGIFL
Living in Hialeah, Fl during 1945 - 1946, we had snow flakes in one of those winters.
We were allowed outside during school, as most had never seen snow before. FWH
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:

JB said in his video that our Winter could resemble the 1976/1977 Winter across the US. I wasn't alive then but can someone shed some light on this. I believe that C FL saw snow that winter.


It was brutal. I was 27 at the time. Remember when the snow cover finally departed that the ground and the grass looked utterly dead. If you like prolonged, often bitter cold, shoveling snow, high heating bills, etc, then this is your nirvana.
So nice to see that Lol

This webcam on a Cabo San Lucas hotel is still operative, it appears.
Link

Hope people are okay in the hotels, shelters and homes.

Early morning camera shot off twitter. Lights on. That Cabo hotel maybe has generator backup. Surf looks kind of high yet.
Scott..JB also said we would have a modoki el nino too..as much as he can be right about a lot of things he can also be wrong..I'll wait instead and see what the season brings...
93L (P31L) still has a nice spin to it. It's going under the radar and may sneak its way into the Caribbean.

No real model support, but something to watch since its still got a nice spin to it.
Actually the came I posted isn't working and the image won't reload.
Quoting 598. Sfloridacat5:

93L (P31L) still has a nice spin to it. It's going under the radar and may sneak its way into the Caribbean.

No real model support, but something to watch since its still got a nice spin to it.


Early this morning a boat was reporting 30Kt winds just north of the circulation of 93L
015E/H/O/C2
Quoting 563. CybrTeddy:





Ed is a nic open wave lol this playing
Quoting 598. Sfloridacat5:

93L (P31L) still has a nice spin to it. It's going under the radar and may sneak its way into the Caribbean.

No real model support, but something to watch since its still got a nice spin to it.


dont you mean ex 93L
some of the ensembles still showing Eduoard doing a loop



Quoting 589. biff4ugo:

What causes the surging in the IR time loop animation of Odile?

the snow in central Florida back then only lasted briefly at the tips of fur coats. Nothing I saw in Leesburg stuck on the ground. Florida snow is way cold, but not impressive by northern standards.
It is like rain in Las Vegas, nobody can drive in it and locals freak out. But from areas that get twice that amount in an hour instead of a decade it is unimpressive.


My dad was in Atlanta and Raleigh for both Interstate freezes, and he says what happened in Atlanta could have happened anywhere. When it started snowing, it was still above freezing so it just made the roads wet. But it only got colder so the melted snow froze over and snow stuck on top of that and many people just thought it was powder snow.

The best part of being a kid in school in NC was schools closing before a single flake fell. Meanwhile when Hurricane Isabel came they decided to close schools a couple hours after the day started.
Quoting 584. StormTrackerScott:

I am hearing very little from Cabo this morning. Hoping for the best but the situation seems grim there.
They took a direct hit from the right side. Odile hit them with her worst I believe.

Good Morning Folks. Talk about an inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic (and especially this year); about to get another storm in the E-Pac. This season is a poster child for that observed correlation.

Quoting ncstorm:
some of the ensembles still showing Eduoard doing a loop



Could see some east coast action soon.
Edouard should become a major hurricane later today.

Quoting 580. EdwardinAlaska:


I'm on it. Tell me where to go and I'm there.

I need you to go to Whole Foods and get me a strawberry shortcake.
Quoting 608. hydrus:

They took a direct hit from the right side. Odile hit them with her worst I believe.


news should start coming in soon that web cam bf posted appears to have been ripped down and we are looking at the floor of a room with trees up against the windows looks like that to me those generators running the lights should run out of fuel soon
Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:



JB said in his video this morning the the 1976/1977 seems to be the best analog for this Winter. I would tend to agree based on all the ridging I am see in the long range CFS model across Canada and a strong southern jet.

Something like this would be interesting because if we get the southern and northern branch to phase from time to time then it wouldn't take much to drop these Arctic highs south kinda like what we saw in 2010.


i did some checking and it appears that during Modoki Nino it is cold and stormy for the eastern half. And yes the winter of 76/77 was brutal for many. Snow for Tampa and flakes in South Miami.
Odile is going right up the spine of the Baha Peninsula:

2014 East Pacific Season Summary So Far
Tropical Depressions: 16
Tropical Storms: 15
Hurricanes: 11
Major Hurricanes: 8
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Edouard should become a major hurricane later today.

I think so to, it looks like one right now.
Wow.. Looks like several webcams survived and are operating (at least marginally)

Link
- Casa Dorada Hotel at 7:35 am


_Cabo Villas Resort. Cam wrecked but streaming live!

Link
- Up the coast at Loreto... Storm is just arrrivng Villa del Palmer cam is operating
Remnant of Odile in GFS this weekend merged with front



Quoting 616. jdukes:

2014 East Pacific Season Summary So Far
Tropical Depressions: 16
Tropical Storms: 15
Hurricanes: 11
Major Hurricanes: 8


The G Storm dos not cont has it happen in the W PAC whe it came a cat 3 or above so where only 7 major for the season all so with the makeing of the O storm I think we are up to 16 name storms but not sure on that part
Rise and shine Edouard. Take note of where Hurricane Edouard is intensifying.





And match it up with this. Think about where Bertha and Cristobal got going and Arthur to a certain extent.



Now I don't know if this is a result of the warm ENSO or the warm anomalies off the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska or maybe it is a combination of both.

622. SLU
Quoting 601. HurricaneAndre:




WOW! The Atlantic is still capable of this?
Quoting 622. SLU:



WOW! The Atlantic is still capable of this?
Yep, if you go to the Subtropical Atlantic that is.
This forecast from the CFS for January looks suspect. The large warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska is still present and has been going strong since last year. This means that anomalous ridging is still in place. A drastic change in the overall pattern will have to occur before this type of  negative 500mb anomaly pattern can become established.



625. SLU
Quoting 623. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yep, if you go to the Subtropical Atlantic that is.


I had to look twice to make sure this was a current image and that it was really in our basin.

Quoting 621. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Rise and shine Edouard. Take note of where Hurricane Edouard is intensifying.





And match it up with this. Think about where Bertha and Cristobal got going and Arthur to a certain extent.



Now I don't know if this is a result of the warm ENSO or the warm anomalies off the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska or maybe it is a combination of both.


It has everything to do with anomalous rising motion in the Subtropical Atlantic as opposed to the Tropical Atlantic (MDR). Also, this season has Nino characteristics and Nino years favor development in the Subtropical waters.
Quoting 622. SLU:



WOW! The Atlantic is still capable of this?

It's in the subtropics, nothing out of the ordinary the past few years lol.

Now if this were in the Caribbean...
628. SLU
At 1200 UTC, 15 September 2014, HURRICANE EDOUARD (AL06) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 27.0°N and 55.1°W. The current intensity was 90 kt and the center was moving at 12 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb.

105mph, 966mb
Quoting 620. Tazmanian:



The G Storm dos not cont has it happen in the W PAC whe it came a cat 3 or above so where only 7 major for the season all so with the makeing of the O storm I think we are up to 16 name storms but not sure on that part

Genevieve became a major hurricane in the Central Pacific.
630. SLU
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's in the subtropics, nothing out of the ordinary the past few years lol.

Now if this were in the Caribbean...


That's a start. Maybe next year we might see one in the MDR.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Really wouldn't be surprised to see Edouard top out at 105-110 knots at this rate. Right now though, I'll go along with the NHC and call for a 100 knot peak.

didnt someone say last week or so that some pacific storm was supposed to jump over central america into the gulf?
Quoting 614. hydrus:

i did some checking and it appears that during Modoki Nino it is cold and stormy for the eastern half. And yes the winter of 76/77 was brutal for many. Snow for Tampa and flakes in South Miami.



I tend to agree with JB on this point. We'll see if we get the 1976 analog fall first which was a lot like the first half of the winter, very persistant western ridge eastern trough week after week for months starting in August and pretty much locking in in October. The second half of the winter of 76-77 had a dramatic recovery to normal and then above normal temperatures and the spring of 1977 was one of the warmest of record in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic. I'm suspecting the fall and early winter analog is indeed in our cards.. less sure about the warmup.
Edouard seems to be on an upward trend. It is a pattern I have seen before with Atlantic systems - a large eye appears surrounded by fairly warm cloud tops, then the tops cool through convective bursts rotating through the eyewall. I remember systems such as Ike and Igor following this pattern.

I also suspect that Edouard underwent an EWRC last night - the eye which was previously 10-15nm wide is now 30-35nm in diameter. This also explains the low pressure for a category 2 hurricane, as a larger system will tend to have a lower pressure at the same wind speed.

Based on recon data, there are already 850mb winds to 120 knots with a dropsonde reporting 88 knots with a NNE wind, suggesting that the maximum winds (which would be from the SE-ESE based on the direction of motion) may be nearing category 3 intensity.

I predict 95 knots at 5PM, with an upgrade to Major Status by 11PM. I would not be suprised to see this top out at 115 knots (Minimal Category 4) based on the current satellite appearance.