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Damaging Winds Rip Cruise Ship from Its Moorings

By: Lee Grenci 12:30 PM GMT on April 05, 2013

In the early afternoon on Wednesday, April 3, 2013, fierce winds ripped the cruise ship, Triumph, from its moorings along the Mobile River (Mobile, Alabama). Check out the AP photograph below. Damaging winds had occurred around noon near New Orleans, Louisiana, shifting east-northeastward toward Gulfport, Mississippi, and Mobile. Curiously, the Storm Prediction Center didn't show any storm reports of damaging winds for April 3. That's because damaging winds were, technically speaking, "non-thunderstorm" winds.



A close-up photograph of some of the damage incurred to the cruise ship, Triumph, after fierce winds caused the ship to break loose from its moorings in the early afternoon of April 3, 2013. Courtesy of the Associated Press.

Yet these fierce winds were related to the mesoscale convective system (MCS) that moved across the Gulf Coast States on Wednesday (check out the 17Z mosaic of composite reflectivity). For starters, a mesoscale convective system is any meso-beta (20 to 200 kilometers) or meso-alpha (200 to 1000 kilometers) group of thunderstorms that are part of a contiguous area of convective and straitform rains that span 100 kilometers or more in at least one horizontal direction. This sequence of images of radar reflectivity displays some of the various kinds of precipitation structures associated with mesoscale convective systems (courtesy of UCAR and The Comet Program).



The 14Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of mean sea-level isobars (drawn every two millibars) and surface winds on April 3, 2013. The Rapid Refresh data were superimposed on base reflectivity. Note the wake low in the "wake" of the mesoscale convective system. Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.

Early on April 3, a mesoscale area of low pressure, formally called a wake low, followed in the "wake" of the mesoscale convective system. To see what I mean, check out the 14Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of mean sea-level isobars (drawn every two millibars) and surface winds superimposed on the 14Z base radar reflectivity (above). I annotated the image for you to see the position of the wake low relative to the MCS.


A wake low forms when subsiding air in the wake of the MCS warms on descent. In a nutshell, this compressional warming increases the mean temperature in columns of air that extend from the earth's surface to high in the stratosphere. This increase in mean column temperature decreases the mean column air density, which, in turn, lowers the weight of the air columns and the surface pressure (when the atmosphere is nearly hydrostatic, the weight of air columns from the earth's surface to near the top of the atmosphere serves as a proxy for surface air pressure).



The 17Z mosaic of composite reflectivity on April 3, 2013. Note the tongue of dry air eroding the stratiform rain on the backside of the MCS. Courtesy of Penn State.

If we look more closely at the 17Z mosaic of composite reflectivity (above), it appears that there was a tongue of very dry air "cutting into" the trailing stratiform shield of precipitation on the backside of the mesoscale convective system. To get a better sense for how this mid-level very dry air literally charged into the wake of the MCS, check out this 10-hour loop of radar reflectivities (takes a moment to load; courtesy of SPC) that span from 0935Z to 1935Z. The dark region on the 17Z water vapor image from GOES-13 confirms the notion of intruding dry, mid-level air. At any rate, seasoned forecasters recognize this "charge" of very dry mid-level air as a precursor for high-wind episodes associated with wake lows. So I'm really suggesting that nowcasting this event would fall into the category of pattern recognition.


When a tongue of very dry mid-level air originating over the high deserts of the Southwest "charges" eastward and intrudes beneath the anvil cloud of a mesoscale convective system, precipitation falling from the anvil of the MCS completely evaporates. Now subsiding air dramatically warms at the DALR (dry adiabatic lapse rate), markedly increasing the mean temperature in air columns and lowering air densities, column weights and, ultimately, surface pressure. If the layer of intruding dry air is sufficiently deep and surges eastward in the vicinity of the wake low, there can be rapid and dramatic hydrostatic pressure falls at the earth's surface, paving the way for strong surface winds.



The 17Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of mean sea-level isobars and surface winds on April 3, 2013. The red "L" and the blur "H" indicate, respectively, the wake low and mesohigh associated with rain-cooled air. Courtesy of SPC.

Let's look more closely at the mesoscale weather pattern around midday. Check out, above, the 17Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of mean sea-level isobars, surface winds and base reflectivity. Remember that isobars are drawn every two millibars, so the pressure gradient between the wake low (the red "L") and the mesohigh associated with relatively dense, rain-cooled air (the blue "H") looks a bit larger than it actually was. Certainly, the winds generated by this rather modest pressure gradient were not strong enough to move a cruise ship off its moorings. No, there was something else going on.


Take a look (below) at the 19Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of 2-hour pressure tendency (dashed blue contours represent pressure falls, expressed in millibars per two hours). If you look closely, you'll observe an isallobar labeled minus five millibars per two hours (between 17Z and 19Z) in the vicinity of the wake low, indicating the dramatic impact on surface pressure caused by the eastward "charging" mid-level dry air that I discussed earlier. In contrast, there were only modest positive pressure tendencies associated with the mesohigh during these two hours.



The 19Z Rapid Refresh model analysis of 2-hour pressure tendencies on April 3, 2013. Dashed, blue contours indicate negative pressure tendencies (pressure decreased during the two-hour period from 17Z to 19Z). Courtesy of SPC.

Nonetheless, the pocket of negative pressure tendencies in the vicinity of the rapidly intensifying wake low promoted strong isallobaric acceleration toward the west, helping to generate damaging, "non-thunderstorm" winds. For the record, the isallobaric wind is an ageostrophic component of the wind that arises from changes in pressure over time. In general terms, it blows from a pocket of positive pressure tendencies toward a pocket of negative pressure tendencies (check out this example of the isallobaric wind component...contours are isallobars representing surface pressure changes over a period of three hours).


Quite an event, wouldn't you agree?


Lee

Recent News Mesoscale Forecasting

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you haveta see some numbers on there... how does 6-10 majors sound to you?

I got you Taz

LOLOL Aussie!!! That was soo funny, I just cracked up when I saw the fresh Psy face on there


Yeah, I thought it was pretty good. LOL
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:48 AM WST April 7 2013
======================================

There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present, however to the north of the region lies a low [17U] near 07.0S 98.0E, about 620 kilometers north northeast of the Cocos Islands.

This low has developed slightly over the past 24 hours and is moving in a south southeasterly direction. Its likely the system will enter the Western Region late Monday or early Tuesday, by which stage the risk of the system being of tropical cyclone strength is high. By Tuesday it is likely to be located in the general vicinity of 11S 102E.

The Cocos and Christmas Island communities are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and possible warnings.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High
Another shout out for Jeff Masters....

...Weather Underground cofounder Jeff Masters, does a masterful job of explaining how the data show the climate warming in something like a series of steps, as clearly presented by the site Skeptical Science.

Masters goes into thorough detail, showing how volcanic eruptions, El Nino, La Nina, and other variations create short-term temperature trends that flatten or shift the graph for a while. But then the long-term trend reasserts itself and it's up one more step.
...
Anyhow. Whenever, as the Economist did, a usually reasonably reliable publication produces work that makes me question a core scientific belief, I like to check it out to make sure new evidence hasn't suddenly emerged to change that belief. So it hasn't, and so I don't need to change my belief. Skeptical Science, by the way, remains a great site to go to when the turkeys have got you down. Between them and Weather Underground, it's pretty hard not to get the kind of data-based explanation for anything climate-based that's worrying you.


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/20 13/04/05/these-stairs-arent-climbing-theyre-flat/
Quoting Civicane49:
Latest microwave imagery reveals that the inner core of 21S remains poorly defined.



Nothing new under the sun!!!!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20122013
10:00 AM RET April 7 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R (999 hPa) located at 10.7S 70.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.3S 67.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.5S 65.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.8S 61.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 12.3S 58.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
System's keeps on undergoing a persistent, but weakening easterly vertical wind-shear, as shown by the developing convection in the eastern part of the circulation. ASCAT 06/1707z and OSCAT 06/2107z swaths confirm current intensity.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement on the forecast track, even if they suggest some scheduling differences. RSMC's forecast is close to ECMWFs one. System is expected to track west southwestwards up to Wednesday early on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the low/mid levels. On this forecast track northward of the upper level ridge 16.0S axis, system keeps on undergoing an easterly vertical wind shear and is therefore not expected to deepen significantly within the next 24 hours. Wind shear is expected to clearly weaken on and after Monday late or Tuesday. System should then rapidly intensify thanks to very good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, very favorable sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflows on the both sides).

Wednesday late and Thursday, system should slow down then re-curve south to southeastwards as a upper level ridge builds in the northeast of the system.
Good Morning Folks..Tampa Bay 7-day...............
Good morning. Here's the Day 2 severe weather outlook, very large hail with a few tornadoes the main threat tomorrow:



And here's Day 3 (Tuesday), with a very large slight risk area. It's possible, maybe even likely, that this gets upgraded to moderate risk in later outlooks. Large hail will once again be a major threat, but this day will also feature the best chance for tornadoes, though an outbreak does not appear likely. Wind damage will become a bigger threat as storms organize into a squall line.



Severe weather, mostly in the form of damaging wind, will continue into Wednesday and possibly beyond.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Conspiracy theories cannot easily be dis-proven empirically because the theorist is convinced that the alleged conspirators are so advanced that their alleged actions cannot be detected by anyone else.


HAARP does exist, it is secret!
Fact

It's a communications center.
Fact

People who work there won't tell if HAARP has an effect on weather!
FACT
Quoting trunkmonkey:


HAARP does exist, it is secret!
Fact

It's a communications center.
Fact

People who work there won't tell if HAARP has an effect on weather!
FACT
Not sure if serious.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


HAARP does exist, it is secret!
Fact

It's a communications center.
Fact

People who work there won't tell if HAARP has an effect on weather!
FACT

Did you swap your normal cuppa joe for a glass of scotch. How often do you read theweatherspace.com If not, you should, you'll fit right in there.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I won't change my numbers after June 1... plan to update them in early May.

NOAA NHC updates their numbers in August, they also "cheat"...2005 was a perfect example
As you said, the NHC updates its numbers in August, but the original numbers are still there for everyone to see. Perhaps, then, you could maintain both sets of numbers for comparison purposes. That is, each user's pre-season numbers alongside their updated August numbers.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Can you prove their (HAARP) theories are fictional?

look what the weather is doing where HAARP is!

You seem like a Government agent to discredit the effects of HAARP.

HUH?

P.S. May I see your papers?
Do you understand that HAARP has about ten times the energy of the most-powerful FM radio stations? Can you explain to this blog how that is enough energy to impact weather systems?

We'll wait.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


HAARP does exist, it is secret!
Fact

It's a communications center.
Fact

People who work there won't tell if HAARP has an effect on weather!
FACT
HAARP is so secret that they have offered hundreds if not thousands of internships each year and give annual tours as well.
Rain coming for the midwest drought states........
Good Morning All..



21S looking healthy this am..



Latest Modis 250km..



No winds over 35knots that I can tell..

Quoting LargoFl: Post #517
Rain coming for the midwest drought states........


Looks like they may possibly get some relief this spring..

CPC prediction..

30 MILLION PEOPLE

So SE risk is still uncertain



..SETUP SHOULD
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH EWD AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS DOWNSTREAM OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INVOF
CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ON D4
. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY OCCURS WITH THE
HANDLING/TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE AND ESPECIALLY WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.
The Storm Prediction Center is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk on Tuesday. Large hail and tornadoes will be possible early afternoon, evolving into a powerhouse squall line by evening. Tuesday is most similar to January 29 of this year.
last atlantic hurricane season was a bad one but if sandy didnt happen it would of been just another season luck has alot to do with it
Quoting islander101010:
last atlantic hurricane season was a bad one but if sandy didnt happen it would of been just another season luck has alot to do with it

If we didn't have Sandy, Isaac would be the storm most people remember about the 2012 season
Quoting pcola57:


Looks like they may possibly get some relief this spring..

CPC prediction..

I hope so, some of those states have serious droughts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Storm Prediction Center is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk on Tuesday. Large hail and tornadoes will be possible early afternoon, evolving into a powerhouse squall line by evening. Tuesday is most similar to January 29 of this year.


GFS still showing almost no non diurnal SE CAPE

daytime capes near 1000 j'kg

nws peachtree city(atlanta) says CAPE will be the same regardless (Above 1000 j'kg

AS WAS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...NO MATTER WHEN THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 1000 J/KG...THOUGH SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT
UPON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITH
SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS.
Thursday/friday florida needs to watch this evolve...
also its an all or nothing gamble against the CAP

THE LATEST DATA SHOWS STORMS HAVING DIFFICULTY FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE. STORMS WOULD TEND TO
BE POST-FRONTAL...OR IN COOLER AIR AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER.

IF THE CAP WAS TO BREAK...THIS WOULD ALLOW PRE-FRONTAL STORMS TO POP
UP READILY IN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WOULD
AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALMOST A
CERTAINTY...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.


arkansas
IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO
SHALLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP. SBCAPE VALUES OF UP TO
2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN
AND NOW IT IS ABOUT 6-12 HRS QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARDS GFS AND
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE/QLCS.

bmx
CycloneOz has an ITCZ WeatherCam. From the coordinates he has posted, it is located in Cuenca, Ecuador.

I guess he lives in Ecuador now?


http://www.ustream.tv/channel/itcz-weathercam
Quoting Neapolitan:
As you said, the NHC updates its numbers in August, but the original numbers are still there for everyone to see. Perhaps, then, you could maintain both sets of numbers for comparison purposes. That is, each user's pre-season numbers alongside their updated August numbers.


that is complicated... New people may want to be included as we go and some of the ones now might not give me their new numbers if I ask for an update. I can't have add-ons and updates... very confusing and much more work.
widespread winter storm watches from the Rockies into the northern plains... some blizzard watches for the Rockies west of Denver.


21S click pic for loop.
My new Video... Enjoy.



Goodnight all
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is complicated... New people may want to be included as we go and some of the ones now might not give me their new numbers if I ask for an update. I can't have add-ons and updates... very confusing and much more work.
Complicated? Much more work? Doesn't seem that way. I mean, if someone "doesn't want to give you their new numbers", then you simply leave their old ones in place, and let them suffer for not updating when they could have, right? And you say you "can't have add-ons and updates"--yet isn't this very conversation about updating numbers mid-season? At any rate, it seems you're not presenting the most accurate picture if your list shows pre-season predictions for some users next to mid-season predictions for others, with no way for viewers to differentiate between the two.

If I were making such a list, I'd go with something like:

list

Ah, well; just tossing out a Sunday morning suggestion...and what do I know, anyway? ;-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is complicated... New people may want to be included as we go and some of the ones now might not give me their new numbers if I ask for an update. I can't have add-ons and updates... very confusing and much more work.


I give some numbers, though I said I wouldn't do this.

This is mostly unscientific this year, as I don't really have a system, and I don't usually do pre-season forecasts.

19 Named TS
10 Hurricane
5 Major Hurricane

19 is just one more than average neutral year.

10 and 5 is just a guess though, no particular reasoning at this point.

I'm more comfortable picking realistic numbers at the end of May or the first week of June.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I give some numbers, though I said I wouldn't do this.

This is mostly unscientific this year, as I don't really have a system, and I don't usually do pre-season forecasts.

19 Named TS
10 Hurricane
5 Major Hurricane

19 is just one more than average neutral year.

10 and 5 is just a guess though, no particular reasoning at this point.

I'm more comfortable picking realistic numbers at the end of May or the first week of June.


got it...

what 'average' are you talking about?
Quoting Skyepony:
21S click pic for loop.


Embed No Worky Skye.. :(
Quoting Neapolitan:
Complicated? Much more work? Doesn't seem that way. I mean, if someone "doesn't want to give you their new numbers", then you simply leave their old ones in place, and let them suffer for not updating when they could have, right? And you say you "can't have add-ons and updates"--yet isn't this very conversation about updating numbers mid-season? At any rate, it seems you're not presenting the most accurate picture if your list shows pre-season predictions for some users next to mid-season predictions for others, with no way for viewers to differentiate between the two.

If I were making such a list, I'd go with something like:

list

Ah, well; just tossing out a Sunday morning suggestion...and what do I know, anyway? ;-)


thanks Nea... I like your suggestion
I'll think about what to do..

I won't be asking anyone for information about updating their numbers though.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 7:53 AM PDT on April 07, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
54 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.92 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1700 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Elevation: 817 ft



Lot of overcast this morning. Just happen to be in that slot to the East of the Santa Monica Mtns. in Orange Co. Should clear soon.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


got it...

what 'average' are you talking about?


I'm talking about the average based on neutral ENSO conditions, if I remember the stats right. Forgot where my charts are.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm talking about the average based on neutral ENSO conditions, if I remember the stats right. Forgot where my charts are.


the average activity for tropical cyclones is 12...


look at it here..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
In case you missed it... I updated my chart, 73 listed. check out the new blog


Mornin' all...

MMX, put me down for 21/7/4 with 3 CONUS TS's and 1 CONUS Cat 2.

Thanks in advance!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the average activity for tropical cyclones is 12...


look at it here..


That's long term.

The average in a neutral year is higher. I forget the exact numbers, but I think it's 18.

Also, the long term average is no longer relevant because it's still back-weighted by so many years before the 90's, when GW really started kicking in high gear.

The mean since 2000 is 16.5 named storms per year, and the median is 15.5 named storms per year.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks Nea... I like your suggestion
I'll think about what to do..

I won't be asking anyone for information about updating their numbers though.

Or just say, number in by May 31st No updates allowed.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Complicated? Much more work? Doesn't seem that way. I mean, if someone "doesn't want to give you their new numbers", then you simply leave their old ones in place, and let them suffer for not updating when they could have, right? And you say you "can't have add-ons and updates"--yet isn't this very conversation about updating numbers mid-season? At any rate, it seems you're not presenting the most accurate picture if your list shows pre-season predictions for some users next to mid-season predictions for others, with no way for viewers to differentiate between the two.

If I were making such a list, I'd go with something like:

list

Ah, well; just tossing out a Sunday morning suggestion...and what do I know, anyway? ;-)

Someone could easily implement this kind of forecasting system as a all-in-good-fun kind of contest, and it could be easily done with Google Docs and a Google form.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Or just say, number in by May 31st No updates allowed.


Yes Aussie. Is better to end the poll on May 31rst at midnight EDT as I do with my poll in another site. I say Preliminary or Final numbers to those who post. If those who go with preliminary numbers and not come to update them by the end on May 31rst,they are considered as final ones.
Guys... One last note about this hurricane chart matter...
don't take me wrong for it, nor feel upset by my words
---

I might as well have done a "mediocre" chart in a word document and just put it up here for everyone to see. HOWEVER, I don't do that kind of simple and non-fasinating work.

Every map I put up here takes me time and energy, weather is my passion and it becomes just amazing to me when it's blended with art, as you can see in all the graphics I have posted here since 2011.

Again, I will never ask for a "compliment" or a positive feedback (that is up to you), what would I ask for, always, critics because they help me make them better every time (if they are within my possibilities).

Im closing my poll in August 1... some of you may take advantage/like it, some others wont.


understand my position regarding this...
...oh well, otherwise
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Mornin' all...

MMX, put me down for 21/7/4 with 3 CONUS TS's and 1 CONUS Cat 2.

Thanks in advance!

sure!

Quoting RTSplayer:


That's long term.

The average in a neutral year is higher. I forget the exact numbers, but I think it's 18.

Also, the long term average is no longer relevant because it's still back-weighted by so many years before the 90's, when GW really started kicking in high gear.

The mean since 2000 is 16.5 named storms per year, and the median is 15.5 named storms per year.


ohh ok.. I missed that part.


Roller coaster....

Off-Topic MotoGP season starts today...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Guys... One last note about this hurricane chart matter...
don't take me wrong for it, nor feel upset by my words
---

I might as well have done a "mediocre" chart in a word document and just put it up here for everyone to see. HOWEVER, I don't do that kind of simple and non-fasinating work.

Every map I put up here takes me time and energy, weather is my passion and it becomes just amazing to me when it's blended with art, as you can see in all the graphics I have posted here since 2011.

Again, I will never ask for a "compliment" or a positive feedback (that is up to you), what would I ask for, always, critics because they help me make them better every time (if they are within my possibilities).

Im closing my poll in August 1... some of you may take advantage/like it, some others wont.


understand my position regarding this...
...oh well, otherwise


Good Afternoon Everyone, what a beautiful day here in eastern NC..

Listen, do your chart your way..its funny how a lot of "suggestions" are made after you decided to take this on yet none of those suggesters bother to initiate doing it in the first place..its your project and your idea..do it your way and leave it at that..

have a great afternoon everyone!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Here's the Day 2 severe weather outlook, very large hail with a few tornadoes the main threat tomorrow:



And here's Day 3 (Tuesday), with a very large slight risk area. It's possible, maybe even likely, that this gets upgraded to moderate risk in later outlooks. Large hail will once again be a major threat, but this day will also feature the best chance for tornadoes, though an outbreak does not appear likely. Wind damage will become a bigger threat as storms organize into a squall line.



Severe weather, mostly in the form of damaging wind, will continue into Wednesday and possibly beyond.


That appears to be a little bold to say at this point, especially with such a large 30% hatched area on a day 3 outlook. With any higher of a risk being very rare, day 3 outlooks with 30% hatched areas are often the sign of a significant severe weather outbreak.

Quoting ncstorm:


Good Afternoon Everyone, what a beautiful day here in eastern NC..

Listen, do your chart your way..its funny how a lot of "suggestions" are made after you decided to take this on yet none of those suggesters bother to initiate doing it in the first place..its your project and your idea..do it your way and leave it at that..

have a great afternoon everyone!


thanks NC... you truly understand me...
Appreciate it lots!
well tonight is the night Wrestlemania 29! i look forword too Wrestlemania evere year cant wait too see oh will win tonight and i was thinking Wrestlemania was not in tell next weekend


for the ones that dont have pay per viwe or un able too go this year you can follow the WWE live Chat

Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That appears to be a little bold to say at this point, especially with such a large 30% hatched area on a day 3 outlook. With any higher of a risk being ...


This setup looks a *lot* like May 27, 1997. There are
youtubes of that spectacular breakout, BP even used the
graphic in one of their commercials for a few years. I
think it was BP.....
this was 6 to 12" now be update to 9 too 13"

COZ038>041-043-080115-
/O.CON.KBOU.WS.A.0006.130409T0300Z-130410T0000Z/
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT COLLINS...HEREFORD...LOVELAND...
NUNN...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...LON GMONT...AURORA...
BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...
FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY...
ROGGEN
1104 AM MDT SUN APR 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING
WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...9 TO 13 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.


* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN BELOW A
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE
DANGEROUS AS ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOWPACKED DUE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Orchard grower may get some rain wens looks like....
Quoting Tazmanian:



is that all you this post ??? maps of nothing and if you have not looked at the time on that laptop it show it was last update at 3am so thats old may be it will not hurt that you check the times and dates be for posting maps


What? Largofl is just posting model forecast images, no need to get rustled, and the posts are blog applicable and aren't causing any harm. If you don't like them you are free to move on to other blogs.
The trough off the West Coast should have no trouble digging once it moves onshore. The NAM depicts a 160 knot 300 millibar jet streak tomorrow:



140 knot at 500 millibars:

Quoting Tazmanian:



is that all you this post ??? maps of nothing and if you have not looked at the time on that map it show it was last update at 3am on tue so thats old may be it will not hurt that you check the times and dates be for posting maps

No it isn't old, it is a model run image for Tuesday, in two days, at 3am. He isn't doing anything wrong with posting those images and I'm fine with it.
There's a bit of a difference in the handling of the closed low embedded within the longwave between the 06Z and 12Z GFS. In the 06Z run, the closed low is in the front part of the longwave, acting as a negatively tilted shortwave. This is the more favorable solution for severe weather because it increases upper divergence and the lower heights (and temps) promote a more unstable atmospheric profile with steeper lapse rates.



Now, the 12Z run has the closed low more centrally located within the longwave trough. Without the lower heights further into the severe weather zone, the less favorable area of divergence and increased convective inhibition will have a real chance at stunting the development of severe weather.



All in all, until more of the mesoscale features are agreed upon, this still has the potential to range from significant tornado outbreak to a bad bust.
Severe Weather on April 12th for the Mid-Atlantic maybe??? I hope so...
Just because I am very bored, I decided to do an analysis of today's severe weather setup. Comments, constructive criticisms and suggestions are greatly appreciated :)

Today's severe weather setup

Storms starting to fire near Wichita
Edited.. :)
Streetsville/Heartland, Mississauga, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:52 PM EDT on April 07, 2013
Overcast
60.4 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 54%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 11.9 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.65 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 587 ft

Darn Keeper, It is as almost as warm where you are right now as here. I have 61 here. Airport is 61 as well
The 14z HRRR suggests isolated supercells across Kansas and northern Oklahoma shortly after sunset.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 14z HRRR suggests isolated supercells across Kansas and northern Oklahoma shortly after sunset.



Looks like that one on the border is a tornadic one!
ENSO is dead Neutral right now.



Wichita, KS (KICT) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Vance AFB, OK (KVNX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting redwagon:

It's a very different setup actually. While shear was quite lacking, instability was through the roof, with CAPE exceeding 7500 J/kg. Many different surface boundaries and a gravity wave were also in play that day.

The Jarrell, TX F5 Tornado
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's a very different setup actually. While shear was quite lacking, instability was through the roof, with CAPE exceeding 7500 J/kg. Many different surface boundaries and a gravity wave were also in play that day.

The Jarrell, TX F5 Tornado

Yet another EF/F5 spawned from a mesoscale accident. Just like Joplin.
North Platte, Nebraska WU Radar..



Quoting Doppler22:
Severe Weather on April 12th for the Mid-Atlantic maybe??? I hope so...

I am with you on that. I love documenting big storms:)
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N62W

taz how about ya take a chill pill i just woke up and got on here and you are being an ass come on you know better
Quoting PedleyCA:
Streetsville/Heartland, Mississauga, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:52 PM EDT on April 07, 2013
Overcast
60.4 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 54%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 11.9 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 29.65 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 587 ft

Darn Keeper, It is as almost as warm where you are right now as here. I have 61 here. Airport is 61 as well


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Sunday 7 April 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.7 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 56.1°F
Dewpoint: 43.2°F
Humidity: 62 %
Wind: WNW 31 gust 39 mph


59.3 outside my window unofficial
not feeling well ped but getting better been sick since late thursday night
Here is my take on the event come Wednesday:

CAPE values look good across the lower Mississippi Valley (1700-2000 J/KG) This will put Storm UVV or updraft speeds around 40-45 kts.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

This map is RH at 500mb. You can clearly see the drier air moving in from the southwest into the region. This will help cool the column and steepen lapse rates

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Averaged CIN is not incredibly high over the Southeast either. At least in the area of Louisiana/Mississippi

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Lifted indices for the afternoon and evening in this area are reaching -7 to -8. The mid/upper Level Jet streak looks to be finally wrapping around the base of the trough which should help to negatively tilt it although the actual Jet Streak is displaced to the north near the Central Plains a rather diffluent flow still exists across much of the area. Finally this is a Wednesday afternoon sounding from Jackson, MS:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

One can see a very nice veering profile with dry air in the mid-levels which should help steepen lapse rates and also cause a damaging wind threat as sinking (subsiding) air rushes down to the surface. I can see maybe a slight cap in the lower levels but nothing that cannot be overcome by afternoon surface heating.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yet another EF/F5 spawned from a mesoscale accident. Just like Joplin.

And just like the Joplin tornado, the Jarrell tornado was exceedingly violent. F5 damage was recorded along most of its 7.6 mile long path and damage surveyors considered it one of the strongest tornadoes ever surveyed.

One particularly curious thing about the Jarrell tornado family is that they moved from northeast to southwest, the complete opposite direction of the typical tornado. The Jarrell tornado actually moved parallel and very near to I-35 for most of its track.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's a very different setup actually. While shear was quite lacking, instability was through the roof, with CAPE exceeding 7500 J/kg. Many different surface boundaries and a gravity wave were also in play that day.

The Jarrell, TX F5 Tornado


Thanks! Watching this with interest, we got lakes to fill.
here is beginning of event on wed we know more with the next couple of runs of the model more so 00z run late tonight
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not feeling well ped but getting better been sick since late thursday night


Hang in there Keep. Spring is almost there.
winds howling from the sw at times partly cloudy outside now

wind makes it feel cooler then it is

this time yesterday it was 39 outside

20 degree temp change in 24 hrs

lots of atomsphere moving for sure something coming

Severe storms with potential tornadoes over a wider area of the plains on Tuesday with the risk of a few strong( EF2 or higher) tornadoes as well. 



 




12Z 4 km NAM showing a line of discrete storms out ahead of the main line around sunset Tuesday. Good sign for those looking to chase.

first severe storm of the day:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071847Z - 072045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER
SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER E INTO W-CNTRL MO.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...THE LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S-CNTRL
KS EWD INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 DEG F TO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S EARLY THIS AFTN. RECENTLY...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN
ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.

ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/. DESPITE CONTINUED
MOISTENING WITH A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...A NEBULOUS SIGNAL IN
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS
DATA AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OR EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR ICT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37219764 38029784 38629739 38769404 38199371 37649382
37359430 37219764
Quoting ncstorm:
...its funny how a lot of "suggestions" are made after you decided to take this on...
You know what would have been far "funnier"? If anyone had suggested to trHUrrIXC5MMX how he might improve upon his chart before he actually created it.
gee what a beautiful day today here.............
...well at least it's 384 hours out...right?

...right?

*nervous grin*



SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS NEAR ICT APPEAR TO BE
EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SW MO.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...well at least it's 384 hours out...right?

...right?

*nervous grin*


I will destroy things if that verifies...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...well at least it's 384 hours out...right?

...right?

*nervous grin*



yeah its to get cool again some people may start destroying things
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...well at least it's 384 hours out...right?

...right?

*nervous grin*


No, just no. Make it go away. It better not verify or I'll be really mad.
Niceeeeee!



Let the reports begin! lol

Quoting Thrawst:
Let the reports begin! lol


Golf ball size hail reported with that severe storm, it's happening.
Comments 610 and 611 are arranged in a conveniently hilarious sequence. :P
I spy with my little eye a Rear-Flank Downdraft nearby!



Lonely, but powerful, supercell over SE Kansas:

Yikes.
(edit: apparently we all decided to post this cell at once lol)

A0 71 dBZ 29,000 ft. 53 kg/m 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 23 knots WSW (257)





Quoting Thrawst:
Niceeeeee!



At 1:15pm CDT, that supercell had a mean motion vector of 235 degrees. Now, the supercell has a mean motion vector of 260 degrees, signs that the supercell has turned right and is now surfaced based. Watch out for a spin up 'nader!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I will destroy things if that verifies...


Y'all won't have to.. looks like severe craziness for most of us if that does verify.

Remember the other day I was telling you about a farmer
who said his almanac predicted enough April rain to fill
all the aquifers and lakes and then some?
Quoting redwagon:


Y'all won't have to.. looks like severe craziness for most of us if that does verify.

Remember the other day I was telling you about a farmer
who said his almanac predicted enough April rain to fill
all the aquifers and lakes and then some?


And who writes these casts in almanacs, anyway? Why aren't they here?
That cell certainly has found the environmental sweet spot.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC015-049-073-072045-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0007.130407T1941Z-130407T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
241 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
WESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 238 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUREKA...SEVERY...ROSALIA...PIEDMONT...EUREKA AIRPORT...CLIMAX AND
THRALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 9629 3756 9610 3756 9679 3778 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 254DEG 32KT 3767 9667

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
for VR46L ... Rossi is 2nd at Qatar
Quoting redwagon:


And who writes these casts in almanacs, anyway? Why aren't they here?
Ben Franklin
Quoting redwagon:


Y'all won't have to.. looks like severe craziness for most of us if that does verify.

Remember the other day I was telling you about a farmer
who said his almanac predicted enough April rain to fill
all the aquifers and lakes and then some?
There once was a man from Nantucket....
back now...

TC 21...

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
back now...

TC 21...

Good afternoon Max....How are you buddy.....Beautiful day here in south Florida.......
geez Hail the size of "Baseballs"..i just cannot imagine the damage that would cause..imagine your stopped in traffic at the light and baseball size hail starting raining down..geez..
Quoting LargoFl:
geez Hail the size of "Baseballs"..i just cannot imagine the damage that would cause..imagine your stopped in traffic at the light and baseball size hail starting raining down..geez..
Can't imagine Largo...That would put your eye out kid
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Good afternoon Max....How are you buddy.....Beautiful day here in south Florida.......


Hey Palm Beach.. I was taking a nap.. everything cool

We are just here dealing with the cool 52F nature is giving us today but very happy and spirited for upcoming Tuesday's 75F!

That will be my day

TWC
WINTER STORM WALDA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN NAMED
The 23rd named storm
Sigh, winter storm Walda named...

we have winter storm walda
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Palm Beach.. I was taking a nap.. everything cool

We are just here dealing with the cool 52F nature is giving us today but very happy and spirited for upcoming Tuesday's 75F!

That will be my day

TWC
WINTER STORM WALDA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN NAMED
The 23rd named storm
Nothing like a nap on a lazy Sunday afternoon.........
Hello Tazmanian. You've been slipping! Patrap has 67 more comments than you ;)
Quoting Tazmanian:
we have winter storm walda
Taz....Where's Walda.??
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Nothing like a nap on a lazy Sunday afternoon.........


that's right
Quoting LargoFl:
geez Hail the size of "Baseballs"..i just cannot imagine the damage that would cause..imagine your stopped in traffic at the light and baseball size hail starting raining down..geez..


this is what it is like,went through this a couple of weeks ago..

This is the benz after the storm...took off the side mirrors and the headlight lenses as well..what a mess..I also have holes in the roof..some were the size of softballs..


Lazin on a sunny afternoon
How does Jimmie Johnson always have the perfect 2 day growth....? Just askin'
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Lazin on a sunny afternoon


I just need a big thing to end the day... I wish this lazy Sunday afternoon was in September...
21S is still struggling from moderate vertical wind shear of 20 knots, but the shear is expected to abate and allow the cyclone to strengthen in the few days.

Quoting Tazmanian:
we have winter storm walda


'Arf! They're taking obscure names from Lord of the Rings, now. It'll be winter storm Sauron or Galadriel, next. Wonder why they picked such an obscure one.

Walda

Born in TA 2780 Walda was the son of Brytta Léofa. Walda became king at the age of sixty-two when his his father Brytta died in TA 2842.

Walda had served in his father's army fighting off the orcs which had attempted to invade Rohan during Brytta's reign, and at the time of his coronation it was believed Rohan had been freed of them.

However, some orcs remained, and in TA 2851 at the age of seventy-one King Walda was killed by an orc in Dunharrow. Walda was succeeded by his son Folca who avenged his death.

With a reign of only nine years King Walda's reign was the shortest of all the recorded Kings of Rohan.
Big one for Denver, CO...
I really don't care much for tornados.So I could really care less if we don't have a active tornado season.Less people/property to get destroyed/hurt and after 2011 everyone needs a break from 'em.
o well so much for our near 60 degree reading today cooling now with the west flow coming in to replace the southerly flow o well it was nice while it lasted tonights low 34 tomorrow may get to 50 maybe

only severe cell out there

Quoting yonzabam:


'Arf! They're taking obscure names from Lord of the Rings, now. It'll be winter storm Sauron or Galadriel, next. Wonder why they picked such an obscure one. ...

They are zeroing in on their demographic. Of course, Stephen Colbert suggested with the Saturn brand name that they were getting their names from the next planet out.

Edit: Maybe they are trying to pacify Colbert by playing to his LOTR weakness. He has skewered them twice on his show.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072042Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PROBABILITIES FOR STORM INITIATION AND CONTINGENT STORM
COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
--INITIALLY OVER W-CNTRL KS. A CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH BEING ISSUED IS HIGHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED
CU FIELD OVER NWRN KS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN WEAK
TSTMS NEAR THE NWRN KS/SWRN NE BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SLOW/GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF A RESERVOIR OF MID-UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS INTO S-CNTRL KS FROM N-CNTRL OK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIER WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS OVER NWRN KS TENDS TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY FARTHER S OVER S-CNTRL KS.

STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE AS THE DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER WRN KS LENDING AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE NWD ADVANCING MOISTURE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/...A CONDITIONAL LARGE
HAIL/WIND THREAT EXISTS. IF A NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WERE TO
DEVELOP PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY COULD EXIST FOR A TORNADO.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013
Golf ball size hail was reported in Climax, KS with this storm.

A new watch in KS may be issued.

Thunderstorm forming Right near Ellsworth, Kansas. It probably already has some small hail with it.
Wow, if that warm sector was not as capped as it will be on Tuesday...

21S up to 40kts.

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.6S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.0S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.0S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED EAST OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 071543Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS GOOD LOWER-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT VERY FRAGMENTED AND WEAK BANDS TO THE EAST. A 071740Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTED 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
LLCC WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE TIMELY ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
REMAINS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS), CAUSING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
SHEARED TO THE WEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED DUE TO
TROUGHING. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN VWS AND FAIR OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, A POOL OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
LOCATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL AID IN THIS INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 72, A DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND BEGIN TO REORIENT THE STR IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION,
ALLOWING FOR TC 21S TO TURN POLEWARD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THOUGH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD DEFLECTION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS IN THE DEFLECTION ARE
STILL UNCLEAR. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENCED BY INCREASING SPREAD NOTED
IN ENSEMBLE MODEL PRODUCTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE THREE
DAY FORECAST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//

DO EXPECT THE MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FM HERE ON OUT AS THE SYS FINALLY BCMS SAMPLED BY
THE GROUND BASED UPR AIR NETWORK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK THE
SAME AS WELL. A NASTY ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AND CAN BE
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SFC MOISTURE CONTENT
WITH DEWPTS 68-70 DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1600-2100 J/KG ALONG WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF -3 TO -6C.
ADDITIONALLY...WIND FIELDS WILL BE STOUT AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 250-320 M2/S2. WHILE SPECIFICS
ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT A QLCS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AND BRING THE RISK FOR DMG WINDS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. THERE
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR PRE LINE
SUPERCELLS...MAINLY EARLY IN THE EVENT AND ACROSS THE W/NW AREAS
BEFORE THE QLCS BECOMES DOMINANT.
18z run last 3 frames





BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A
COUPLE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE ELONGATED
TROF/BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE AREA IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THOUGH, WITH INCREASING 850MB
WINDS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST. SHEAR VALUES, THOUGH SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED WITH THE 12Z RUNS
THIS MORNING, ARE STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY IF THE SQUALL LINE SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY`S
THINKING PANS OUT).

GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MODELS LACKING
ANY SORT OF APPRECIABLE AGREEMENT,
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A
COUPLE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING AND RIDING ALONG THE ELONGATED
TROF/BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE AREA IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THOUGH, WITH INCREASING 850MB
WINDS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST. SHEAR VALUES, THOUGH SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED WITH THE 12Z RUNS
THIS MORNING, ARE STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY IF THE SQUALL LINE SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY`S
THINKING PANS OUT).

GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MODELS LACKING
ANY SORT OF APPRECIABLE AGREEMENT,
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST

How does wed. look in Augusta?
674. Tygor
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Palm Beach.. I was taking a nap.. everything cool

We are just here dealing with the cool 52F nature is giving us today but very happy and spirited for upcoming Tuesday's 75F!

That will be my day

TWC
WINTER STORM WALDA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN NAMED
The 23rd named storm


Map isn't even labeled correctly
2012


Now^^^
Quoting Chucktown:


You warmingistas are all the same.
Not responding to your troll comment but "warmingistas" is easily the stupidest word I've ever seen.
6th of April 2012:



6th of April 2013:

This little thunderstorm that could.

BOURBON KS-
503 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOURBON COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRONSON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ouch, cold anomalies actually showing up in the far East Atlantic. May see that chart dip to the negatives as the NAO develops.

Also, wtf is up with this picture below lol

GFS Ensemble Day 16 Temperature Anomalies. I feel bad for you guys in the East.

Miami NWS Disco

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, THE FORECAST
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GFS PHASES IT IN WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS ALSO HOLDING ONTO ITS SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH PHASING WITH THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM BUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT THEN SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WOULD
BE OVER NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, IT IS A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ouch, cold anomalies actually showing up in the far East Atlantic. May see that chart dip to the negatives as the NAO develops.

Also, wtf is up with this picture lol

GFS Ens Average Day 16 Temperature Anomalies. I feel bad for you guys in the East.


Yeah...sea surface temperatures have taken a big hit over the past week.

Luckily for them, a return to below average trade winds is forecast starting next week.





By the way, haven't you heard? Spring is cancelled.
One storm.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

By the way, haven't you heard? Spring is cancelled.


No. Just no.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ouch, cold anomalies actually showing up in the far East Atlantic. May see that chart dip to the negatives as the NAO develops.

Also, wtf is up with this picture below lol

GFS Ensemble Day 16 Temperature Anomalies. I feel bad for you guys in the East.



You see the NAO going positive for the next few weeks?
Quoting Astrometeor:
One storm.





No. Just no.

In January I jokingly said Spring and tornado season were cancelled.

Jokingly.

I didn't expect Mother Nature to listen.
I think the fact that we're having a below average spring will help balance/focus moisture over the tropical Atlantic.The recent examples are 2008,2010 and 200(not going to put down the 5).Those years saw several major hurricanes come from out of the deep tropics and affect land and had multiple hits on the U.S mmmmmm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In January I jokingly said Spring and tornado season were cancelled.

Jokingly.

I didn't expect Mother Nature to listen.


Spring just started, and it is warming up, we have our first good chance of tornadoes this week (hopefully), I am optimistic on getting out of TWC's "winter" storm grind and heading into summer.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You see the NAO going positive for the next few weeks?
Neutral to slightly positive, yes.

Alright! Seems like we may get some tornado action. About time to. Some Chasers are out today and are setup as well.
The storms that are starting to fire (storms to the north should expand southward) will be the tornado producers. Huge hail will also be possible with these storms:




Also seeing some cell splitting near Ness City. Good sign of a supercell forming.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EDT Sunday 7 April 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.9 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 47.8°F
Dewpoint: 34.2°F
Humidity: 59 %
Wind: NW 22 mph
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
SCOTT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
UNIONTOWN KANSAS.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...FORT SCOTT...GARLAND...HAMMOND...HANNON...
HARWOOD...HORTON...MILO...MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE. ..NEVADA...
OSKALOOSA...PAWNEE STATION...RICHARDS...SHELDON...STOTESBURY AND
WALKER.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REPLACES THE ONE PREVIOUSLY OUT
FOR BOURBON COUNTY
Quoting Astrometeor:


Spring just started, and it is warming up, we have our first good chance of tornadoes this week (hopefully), I am optimistic on getting out of TWC's "winter" storm grind and heading into summer.

It's warming up for now. That warm up won't last.
Found this from Wichita's NWS's home page:


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
507 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM HAIL HUMBOLDT 37.81N 95.44W
04/07/2013 E1.50 INCH ALLEN KS LAW ENFORCEMEN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's warming up for now. That warm up won't last.


-_-

I hate mother nature toying us with old man winter like that. Go away old man!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...sea surface temperatures have taken a big hit over the past week.

Luckily for them, a return to below average trade winds is forecast starting next week.





By the way, haven't you heard? Spring is cancelled.
Yeah I'm curious to see how the CFS verifies. Not sure how well it handles these types of things. It has been very consistent with slower trade winds by the last third of April and into May (weeks 3 & 4), however.


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 84
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 535 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF
RUSSELL KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 83...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST
CENTRAL KS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...HART

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
btw After a 5 and a 54 pollen count, as expected, today's is MUCH higher

1691

....high is 200...

I suspect tomorrow may top 2000, and with recent and continuing warmth, 4000 by later this week.

pine pollen is not out yet, mainly ash, oak etc.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ouch, cold anomalies actually showing up in the far East Atlantic. May see that chart dip to the negatives as the NAO develops.

Also, wtf is up with this picture below lol

GFS Ensemble Day 16 Temperature Anomalies. I feel bad for you guys in the East.
Me, too--and I live in the east. On the positive side, though, the deepest anomalies are only four or five degrees C below normal, with most in the one to three degree range. Given the late April time frame, those forecast temperatures probably aren't so bad...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...well at least it's 384 hours out...right?

...right?

*nervous grin*

That means a negative NAO or not?
Still going strong, this storm has so far been all (14) of the storm reports on the SPC's page. That should change soon as we finally have new storms firing. Anyways, new warning out with this storm as it is leaving Kansas.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 541 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANCHESTER...LONGFORD AND OAK HILL.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ouch, cold anomalies actually showing up in the far East Atlantic. May see that chart dip to the negatives as the NAO develops.

Also, wtf is up with this picture below lol

GFS Ensemble Day 16 Temperature Anomalies. I feel bad for you guys in the East.


That odd pocket of 23f in South Texas will have to be heated.. big citrus area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In January I jokingly said Spring and tornado season were cancelled.

Jokingly.

I didn't expect Mother Nature to listen.


Lol perhaps it's my fault. Honestly after the overwhelming extreme weather of 2011 and 2012 I sincerely wished upon Mother Nature that it would relent for a while and we'd take a break and this year wouldn't be as warm as last year.

Evidently I'm getting my wish.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol perhaps it's my fault. Honestly after the overwhelming extreme weather of 2011 and 2012 I sincerely wished upon Mother Nature that it would relent for a while and we'd take a break and this year wouldn't be as warm as last year.

Evidently I'm getting my wish.


So I should hate on both of you? Okay, grrr. jk
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol perhaps it's my fault. Honestly after the overwhelming extreme weather of 2011 and 2012 I sincerely wished upon Mother Nature that it would relent for a while and we'd take a break and this year wouldn't be as warm as last year.

Evidently I'm getting my wish.


Well, I also kept on wishing for below normal temperatures during the winter and spring in 2012. I guess that now Mother Nature is granting my wish. Of course now I want above average temps, but that won't happen until probably summer.
3 warned storms in Western Central Kansas for quarter size hail and 60 mph winds. woot.
Will the McWeather Channel be giving McNames to tornado outbreaks?
Quoting wxchaser97:


Well, I also kept on wishing for below normal temperatures during the winter and spring in 2012. I guess that now Mother Nature is granting my wish. Of course now I want above average temps, but that won't happen until probably summer.


Okay, okay, I get it. I have to do some spring cleaning on this blog.
Quoting jitterboy:
Will the McWeather Channel be giving McNames to tornado outbreaks?


Yeah, they're being named after comic book supervillains. First name on the list is Lex Luther.

Lol absolutely Mcnot.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol perhaps it's my fault. Honestly after the overwhelming extreme weather of 2011 and 2012 I sincerely wished upon Mother Nature that it would relent for a while and we'd take a break and this year wouldn't be as warm as last year.

Evidently I'm getting my wish.
Those thunderstorms were horriterribad last year.Their was nothing "normal" about them.It was either really heavy rain or wind or both with something else in the mix (hail and plentiful lighting).
more snow ice freezing rain winter is not done for some yet maybe mid may before we get spring

by then it will be a spring summer

That severe warned storm that moved into MO has heavy rain, large hail, and even some rotation.
Quoting wxchaser97:
That severe warned storm that moved into MO has heavy rain, large hail, and even some rotation.


BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
558 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON AND
NORTHERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEVADA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN FORT
SCOTT KANSAS.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...HANNON...HARWOOD...HORTON. ..MILO...
MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA...OSKALOOSA...RI CHARDS...SHELDON...
STOTESBURY AND WALKER.
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Is that a cat 5?.Its coming for Galvaston!!.lol.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Those thunderstorms were horriterribad last year.Their was nothing "normal" about them.It was either really heavy rain or wind or both with something else in the mix (hail and plentiful lighting).


Lol ditto here in Jersey, Wash. I can think of several days with big storms here... June 28, June 29 obviously, July 3, July 7, July 26, August 5, August 28, just to name a few. And then there was a tornado in town in September :o it was really something.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol ditto here in Jersey, Wash. I can think of several days with big storms here... June 28, June 29 obviously, July 3, July 7, July 26, August 5, August 28, just to name a few. And then there was a tornado in town in September :o it was really something.
And it lead to the big one at the end..Sandy.
Broad rotation forming. Would not be surprised to see a tornado warning soon.
Still have a moderate cap in North central OK and south central KS... might break might not.

There is a fairly well-defined hail core with this storm.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EASTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 611 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELDON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
SOUTH OF NEVADA WITH THIS STORM. THE HAIL BROKE WINDOWS.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCOLA...ARNICA...BEARCREEK...BONA...CANE HILL...CAPLINGER MILLS...
CEDAR SPRINGS...CEDARVILLE...DADEVILLE...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
FILLEY...HARWOOD...IRWIN...JERICO SPRINGS...MASTERS...MILFORD...
MILO...MONTEVALLO...NEOLA...OLYMPIA...SHELDON...ST OCKTON...
SYLVANIA...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS...WAGONER AND WALKER.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE AND STOCKTON STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
BARTON AND VERNON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 9432 3795 9407 3790 9406 3789 9382
3783 9381 3783 9363 3775 9363 3774 9361
3742 9363 3756 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 279DEG 28KT 3767 9428

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

COLUCCI/WISE



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 072310Z - 080015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS SHIFTING INTO SWRN MO.

DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXITING SERN KS AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW83
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL MAY CURRENTLY BE NOTED
WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AIRMASS OVER SCNTRL MO
IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
WHICH MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF
SEVERE. WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS NERN KS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH
OF EXISTING WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/07/2013


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38169693 37989325 36979323 37149693 38169693
This is an interesting articule about how weather forecasting in the U.S is losing edge.

Here is an excerpt:

With weather information just a tap away on smartphones, most people don't give much thought to the nation's forecasting enterprise.

But, some meteorologists warn, at a time when the fabric of the National Weather Service is showing signs of fraying, it's dangerous to take forecasts for granted.

In recent years, most notably with Hurricane Sandy when American forecast models initially indicated the storm would remain out to sea, computer models run by Europe have surpassed the accuracy of U.S. models.
Russia's Emergencies Ministry rejected media reports on Sunday that a new meteorite had crashed in the country's northwest. Some media reports said on Sunday eye-witnesses saw the fall of an unidentified flying object near the town of Tosno in the Leningrad Region. "No facts of the fall of a meteorite have been confirmed," the ministry's spokeswoman said. Rescuers from the Emergencies Ministry went to the site of the presumed meteor crash after a call by eye-witnesses but did not find anything, she said. Meteor mania started in Russia in February after a meteorite exploded over the Urals city of Chelyabinsk. The meteorite slammed into the Urals region on February 15, landing with a massive boom that blew out windows and damaged thousands of buildings around Chelyabinsk, injuring 1,200 people in the area. Health officials say 52 people were hospitalized. NASA estimates the meteorite was roughly 15 meters (50 feet) in diameter when it struck the Earth's atmosphere, travelling faster than the speed of sound, and exploded in a fireball brighter than the sun. The meteor was the largest object to enter the planet's atmosphere in 83 years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...sea surface temperatures have taken a big hit over the past week.

Luckily for them, a return to below average trade winds is forecast starting next week.





By the way, haven't you heard? Spring is cancelled.


Do I have to give my Spring back?????
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is an interesting articule about how weather forecasting in the U.S is losing edge.


I have to wonder how much model discrepancy would disappear if the GFS were outfitted with the same accuracy as the Euro. Quite a bit, I'd imagine.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...WCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072322Z - 080015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN KS INTO WCNTRL MO. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS IS ADVANCING
STEADILY NWD WITH 50+F SFC DEW POINTS NOW ALONG/NORTH OF I-70
CORRIDOR ACROSS NERN KS INTO WCNTRL MO. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO FOCUS
INTO NERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WCNTRL MO. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HAIL PRODUCTION AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY GENERATE HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH.

..DARROW/HART.. 04/07/2013
They churned out two mesoscale discussions within 5 minutes of each other. The little news tab had a hard time keeping up for a while there.

Agitated cumulus? Lol, slight chance someone might break the cap down in Texas it seems.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 072326Z - 080100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SW
OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN INITIATE AND
PERSIST. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
EARLY THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE
ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED
CUMULUS JUST TO THE EAST OF CHILDRESS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CAPPING...STRONG SFC
HEATING TO NEAR 90 F AT CHILDRESS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 8.0
C/KM. THIS WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A
THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/07/2013
January to March has been the driest January-March period on record for California. This is bad news for the fire season (summer through fall) and the huge water demand for southern California (much of SoCal is basically desert and, with over 20 million people in it, huge amounts of water must be taken from the Sierra Nevada mountains in California and the Colorado River to meet the demand of the large metropolitan areas). This rainfall deficit is especially bad considering the January-March period is the period when we get the majority of our rain.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 654 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
FAIR PLAY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. HAS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN
STOCKTON AND JERICHO SPRINGS.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALDRICH...BOLIVAR...DUNNEGAN...FAIR PLAY...GOODSON...HALF WAY AND
POLK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES POMME DE TERRE LAKE AND STOCKTON LAKE.
Red is tornado watches issued to date, blue is severe t-storm. Bar on right is 1-10 by order of shade. Light being 1, dark being 10+




Britain 'running out of wheat' owing to bad weather
6 April 2013 Last updated at 16:17 GMT

Britain will become a net importer of wheat for the first time in a decade this year because of bad weather, the National Farmers' Union has said.

Whole article on BBC news

Quote from this article and very true:
"This is what producing food is all about - the weather."

With that greetings from Germany which is very much appreciating the forecast of a moderate warm and rainy week, followed by a quite summerlike week, Barb.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EASTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 611 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELDON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
SOUTH OF NEVADA WITH THIS STORM. THE HAIL BROKE WINDOWS.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.





wow...golf ball hail.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that a cat 5?.Its coming for Galvaston!!.lol.

Hahahaha :) I wouldnt be surprised if Galveston did get something this year! Also...I read in the paper today...the ECMWF has surpassed the GFS by about 10 times. I will always look at the euro for severe weather and hurricanes now.
The shortwave many of you are watching for the potential severe weather outbreak on Monday and Tuesday will first be digging across Southern California tonight through tomorrow evening. Out here in the west the main story with the storm will be the wind speeds. Most of southern California will see 30-40 MPH gusts. In the mountains, favorable passes will see sustained winds up to 60 MPH with gusts over 100 MPH.

An NWS "Point Forecast" for the San Diego Mountains




18z NAM at 500mbs Jetstreak positioned directly over Southern California



Not surprisingly based on its structure, this storm near the KS/NE border is becoming a serious wind producer.

Quoting Tygor:


Map isn't even labeled correctly


don't blame me for it
Paradise [Russell Co, KS] brief rope tornado was reported to the emergency manager via law enforcement. Damage to an old barn, radio tower & tree limbs #KSwx
Well it was nice of them to explain things. Lol. I think I understand the preliminary conclusion. :)

OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST (GFS MODEL) PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT IS AS FOLLOWS...

INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THE CAPE VALUES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J PER KG.
THE SHOWALTER INDEX WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 6.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 1.8 INCHES...OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE BENCHMARK APRIL NORMALS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL BE ROBUST IN THE
ALONG-FRONT DIRECTION.

COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THE ENTRANCE REGION (RIGHT REAR QUADRANT) OF A TRAVELING
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WILL PASS OVER THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE BY
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT (FRONTAL LIFT) WILL
PHASE IN WITH THE MESO LIFT...EASILY BREAKING THE ADVECTION
(CAPPING) INVERSION (LOCATED WITHIN THE 3000 TO 5000-FOOT LAYER).

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE...MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZED INTO LINES ORIENTED IN
THE FRONTWISE DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.


Showalter Index
(Abbrev. SWI) - a stability index used to determine thunderstorm potential. The SWI is calculated by lifting an air parcel adiabatically from 850 mb to 500 mb. The algebraic difference between the air parcel and the environmental temperature at 500 mb represents the SWI. It is especially useful when you have a shallow cool airmass below 850 mb concealing greater convective potential aloft. However, the SWI will underestimate the convective potential for cool layers extending above 850 mb. It also does not take in account diurnal heating or moisture below 850 mb. As a result, one must be very careful when using this index.
Does hurricane season start based off Eastern time or Zulu time?
Quoting Skyepony:
Russia's Emergencies Ministry rejected media reports on Sunday that a new meteorite had crashed in the country's northwest. Some media reports said on Sunday eye-witnesses saw the fall of an unidentified flying object near the town of Tosno in the Leningrad Region. "No facts of the fall of a meteorite have been confirmed," the ministry's spokeswoman said. Rescuers from the Emergencies Ministry went to the site of the presumed meteor crash after a call by eye-witnesses but did not find anything, she said. Meteor mania started in Russia in February after a meteorite exploded over the Urals city of Chelyabinsk. The meteorite slammed into the Urals region on February 15, landing with a massive boom that blew out windows and damaged thousands of buildings around Chelyabinsk, injuring 1,200 people in the area. Health officials say 52 people were hospitalized. NASA estimates the meteorite was roughly 15 meters (50 feet) in diameter when it struck the Earth's atmosphere, travelling faster than the speed of sound, and exploded in a fireball brighter than the sun. The meteor was the largest object to enter the planet's atmosphere in 83 years.
Woww
I feel like Tuesday's outbreak could be significant enough to warrant a moderate risk, so here's my first outlook:



The SPC has a good handle on the risk area (of course they do...they're the experts). The only thing I disagree with is the lack of enhanced probabilities, which they'll probably add tomorrow.
Quoting cat7hurricane:
Woww


yeah, since the Tunguska meteor exploded over Russia back in the early 1900s.
April 6, 2012:



April 6, 2013:

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20122013
4:00 AM RET April 8 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R (997 hPa) located at 11.7S 66.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
Between 50 NM and 120 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.8S 64.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.0S 62.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.5S 59.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.6S 59.2E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=========================
or the last 6 hours, general configuration of the system has improved with a cyclonic curvature more pronounced. Curved band pattern wrapping on 0.4 wrap gives a DT at 2.5. PT is at 2.5 and MET at 3.0. So, current intensity is upgraded at 30 knots (Tropical Depression stage).

The system keeps on undergoing a persistent easterly vertical wind shear (0000z CIMSS data, 090/16kt). 1646z ASCAT swath shows that the winds field is likely rather asymmetric and the strongest winds are present in the southern semi-circle of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track, but they suggest some scheduling differences. RSMC official forecast is close to ECMWF's one.

System is expected to track west southwestward up to Wednesday early on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the low/mid levels. On this forecast track, northward of the upper level ridge 16s axis, system keeps on undergoing a weakening easterly vertical wind shear within the next 12-24 hours. Wind shear is expected to clearly weaken on and after Monday late or Tuesday. System should then rapidly intensify thanks to very good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, very favorable sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflows on the both sides).

From Wednesday, system should slow down then re-curve south southeastward to southward as a mid level ridge builds in the northeast of the system and as the mid-level subtropical high pressures weaken with a deep trough arriving from west.
Quoting cat7hurricane:
Does hurricane season start based off Eastern time or Zulu time?


Eastern time
Quoting Civicane49:


Eastern time

Do you have a source for that? I was asking the same question the other day.
A little drought info.... The National Weather Service in State College, PA released a map saying that Most of Pennsylvania has received 20-50% less rain then average over the past few months
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is an interesting articule about how weather forecasting in the U.S is losing edge.

Here is an excerpt:

With weather information just a tap away on smartphones, most people don't give much thought to the nation's forecasting enterprise.

But, some meteorologists warn, at a time when the fabric of the National Weather Service is showing signs of fraying, it's dangerous to take forecasts for granted.

In recent years, most notably with Hurricane Sandy when American forecast models initially indicated the storm would remain out to sea, computer models run by Europe have surpassed the accuracy of U.S. models.


And yet the GFS did best on Debbie.
This has been, and continues to be, a very impressive storm now over southern MO, numerous reports of golf ball size hail along its long track.



Not too hard to pick out on the storm report page:

One last update from the west. While it has been cold (for the most part) out in the East, it has been very nice out here in Southern California. We reached 85 degrees today in Santa Barbara and 81 degrees yesterday which made for excellent weather for Deltopia. For those unaware, Deltopia is an annual all-day, all-out massive drunken party held on the first Saturday after UCSB's spring break. The party is held throughout the streets of Isla Vista, which is a community of Santa Barbara directly adjacent to UCSB (where I go to school).

Here are a few pictures...


This is the corner of Del Playa Drive (Del Playa is where the del in deltopia comes from) and Camino Del Sur. The people in the streets are walking from one party to the next while the people on the balconies, roofs, car tops and front lawns of the houses are dancing to music.





Here's a Google Maps Street View of what it normally looks like





Here's the front of my friend's house. The people standing on the platform behind the fence are all dancing, one guy is spraying the people walking by with a hose. You can't see what's going on behind the fence but the house and front yard were packed shoulder to shoulder with people.





And, finally, here's a picture of the mailman trying to make his rounds. Yes, those are people sitting and dancing on top of a mail truck.





These pictures don't really do the event justice, however, it is something you need to see for your own eyes to believe. It is absolute madness.
Quoting Civicane49:


Eastern time
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you have a source for that? I was asking the same question the other day.

I don't know that there is an official time zone it starts in... I usually just consider the official start to be the first TWO.
Quoting Doppler22:
A little drought info.... The National Weather Service in State College, PA released a map saying that Most of Pennsylvania has received 20-50% less rain then average over the past few months


true...although our office has not said anything about it, we are below the average rainfall for this time of the year.
read flag warnings have been issued here multiple times now as a result of the dry ground

some rain for us by late in the week ahed
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you have a source for that? I was asking the same question the other day.


You know bloggers are excitedly looking forward to H. season or are obsessed with hurricanes when they begin asking what timezone the official start is in.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't know that there is an official time zone it starts in... I usually just consider the official start to be the first TWO.


I'll go with the UTC... (GMT or zulu as some like to call it)
Idk what is the official one
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you have a source for that? I was asking the same question the other day.


NHC begins its TWO on 2 am EDT of June 1.

Link

Be back later.
LACLEDE MO-WEBSTER MO-WRIGHT MO-
842 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
WRIGHT...NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND SOUTHERN LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 836 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONWAY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...PUBLIC. REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN PHILLIPSBURG AND
CONWAY. DAMAGE TO WINDOWS FROM THE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CONWAY.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMPETITION...CONWAY...DRY KNOB...FALCON...GROVESPRING...LEBANON...
LYNCHBURG...MORGAN...PHILLIPSBURG...RADER AND TWIN BRIDGES.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK. INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 130 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 080138Z - 080215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 83 IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A LOCAL EXTENSION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN AREA AND TIME.

DISCUSSION...A SEVERE STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ABOUT 40 STATUTE
MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD LOCATED ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE CELL IS LOCATED
ALONG A CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
65 KT/ EVIDENT ON THE SPRINGFIELD WSR-88D VWP MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SCNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/08/2013
Quoting TomTaylor:
.....For those unaware, Deltopia is an annual all-day, all-out massive drunken party held on the first Saturday after UCSB's spring break. The party is held throughout the streets of Isla Vista, which is a community of Santa Barbara directly adjacent to UCSB (where I go to school).

......It is absolute madness.


Multiply it by 100 and you'll get close to Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Looks like a good party though.
First ATL TWO
June 1

2010
2011
2012



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


true...although our office has not said anything about it, we are below the average rainfall for this time of the year.
read flag warnings have been issued here multiple times now as a result of the dry ground

some rain for us by late in the week ahed

Yeah same here... Multiple times my local fire company has responded to some small brush fires
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Max, you scared me for a moment when I saw that yellow circle. I was like, "***, there is an invest already?"

Edit: no idea how I made my type blue-y and link-y
Edit2: Fixed it.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Max, you scared me for a moment when I saw that yellow circle. I was like, "***, there is an invest already?"

Edit: no idea how I made my type blue-y and link-y
Edit2: Fixed it.


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




I choose C, all of the above.
Tropical Storm 21S is becoming a well-organized tropical cyclone with substantial upper-level outflow in the northern semicircle, spiral banding in the southern and eastern semicircle, and a uniform central dense overcast.

Quoting Astrometeor:


I choose C, all of the above.


LOL...

In other topic... there is no floater for the Indian Ocean storm, wonder why.
Mr. long-lasting storm is still going. Sigh. Something else happen already!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WESTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 904 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHLAND TO 5 MILES SOUTH
OF RICHLAND TO 13 MILES WEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...INCLUDING IN PHILLIPBURG AND CONWAY.


IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEULAH...COMPETITION...CROCKER...DEVIL`S ELBOW...DIXON...
DOOLITTLE...DRY KNOB...EDGAR SPRINGS...FALCON...FORT LEONARD
WOOD...HAZELTON...JEROME...LAQUEY...LICKING...LYNC HBURG...
NEWBURG...OZARK SPRINGS...PLATO...RICHLAND...ROBY...ST. ROBERT...
SWEDEBORG AND WAYNESVILLE.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 182 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT.
goes r proving ground nam nest forecast model dipiction

Link
Over 50 reports for the day, 1 rope tornado, two wind reports and 52 hail reports.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Over 50 reports for the day, 1 rope tornado, two wind reports and 52 hail reports.


You study meteors? What went through the Oort cloud recently so send all this cosmic debris our way?
Starting to get serious.
Quoting redwagon:


You study meteors? What went through the Oort cloud recently so send all this cosmic debris our way?
Starting to get serious.


Likely explanation is that we are passing through a more dusty than normal part of our orbit for the year, combined with the hype from the Russian asteroid/meteorite and the asteroid that missed us that same day, (DA2013?) has produced more reports than usual, especially when a meteor lights up the east coast like the one we had recently.
784. JRRP
Cena win... and The Undertaker 21-0
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


LOL...

In other topic... there is no floater for the Indian Ocean storm, wonder why.


Yeah,kinda of strange considering the system is forecast to become a formidable cyclone. Hopefully,they put one as soon as possible.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah,kinda of strange considering the system is forecast to become a formidable cyclone. Hopefully,they put one as soon as possible.


Yes I hope they do.
The long-tracked supercell that started in Kansas and tracked through central Missouri is finally gone...but not without leaving a trail of warnings on the map below:



This was the cell north of the long-tracked one...beautiful:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Long-tracked supercell..



That thing dropped golf ball sized hail for most of that path length. Over 40 reports of damage turned in to the SPC.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


LOL...

In other topic... there is no floater for the Indian Ocean storm, wonder why.


He probably couldnt afford a floater, this day in time..
Quoting SPLbeater:


He probably couldnt afford a floater, this day in time..


they did for Jose... wasn't worth it. just saying...lol.
Quoting percylives:


Multiply it by 100 and you'll get close to Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Looks like a good party though.
No, I don't think you understand. Deltopia is not in the same category as Mardi Gras. While Mardi Gras probably has more people, the two events are not the same. Deltopia isn't an organized event with parades and people of all ages filling the streets; it's tens of thousands of college students (almost exclusively college students, though high school kids make their way there as well) drunk and belligerent (and on many other drugs) going from one house to the next trashing the place. It's not a festival or a celebration, it's a collective mission to get as f!@#ed up as possible. It is not a public, city-wide event, it is a college party.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Plug it or let it alone?


Let it alone. The residents are too paranoid to hold a proper opinion, sounds like they are still traumatized since Sandy. The channel is good for the environment, and is pointless to waste money on this endeavor.
Quoting JRRP:
Cena win... and The Undertaker 21-0
HH won has well
Nice to finally get some extra rain to make up for our abnormally dry Jan-Mar, but it does seem to come all at once... an excerpt from the Seattle Forecast Discussion...

.CLIMATE...AS OF 3 PM THIS MORNING KSEA HAS RECEIVED 2.57 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN APRIL. THE TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ALL PAST APRILS IS 2.57 INCHES...SO WE HAVE EQUALED THE NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION ALREADY ON APRIL 7. TWO MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE DUE NEXT WEEK...ONE WEDNESDAY AND ONE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO BY THE END OF THE WEEK KSEA WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN APRIL RAINFALL. BURKE
Quoting Astrometeor:


Let it alone. The residents are too paranoid to hold a proper opinion, sounds like they are still traumatized since Sandy. The channel is good for the environment, and is pointless to waste money on this endeavor.
Agree. If it closes naturally, it was meant to be closed. If it doesn't, refilling it means the money used is wasted the next time a storm comes through and washes it out. If there isn't a transportation concern, I'd say leave it be.
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1h
Mammoth Mountain, CA has gusted to 102, 106 and 115 mph this evening. Very intense late-season storm coming on shore.

i know it's high up but still cool
Quoting Tazmanian:
HH won has well

Taz nothing against you at all and I am only saying this because you say it ALL THE TIME..this is a weather blog
Quoting LiveToFish0430:

Taz nothing against you at all and I am only saying this because you say it ALL THE TIME..this is a weather blog



i dont care i talk about what evere i want un less the mod says other wilse in other words your not my boss
Quoting Civicane49:


I have been to their site looking for info but really dont get to find any, and the language is not the problem
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have been to their site looking for info but really dont get to find any, and the language is not the problem


Here is the link on the tropical cyclone info from Meteo France.
April 6, 2012



April 6, 2013

North Atlantic oscillation is forecast to become positive:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:48 AM WST April 8 2013
========================================

There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present,

Just north of the region, a low [17U] is near 09.0S 101.0E, about 520 kilometers northwest of Christmas Island, moving in a southerly direction. This system will enter the Western Region tonight.

The low has not developed over the past 24 hours but there still remains a moderate risk that it may reach tropical cyclone intensity late Tuesday or Wednesday.

The Cocos and Christmas Island communities are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and possible warnings.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Low
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20122013
10:00 AM RET April 8 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R (996 hPa) located at 11.2S 65.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 260 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 63.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 11.8S 61.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.5S 58.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 13.6S 58.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=========================
The center has been relocated northward (position at 0000 UTC: near 11.3S/66.7E). For the last 6 hours, general configuration of the system has continued to improve.

The system keeps on undergoing a persistent easterly vertical wind shear (0600z CIMSS data, 090/16kt). 05.32 UTC ASCAT swath and TRMM microwave picture at 04.47 UTC suggest that the low level circulation is still elongated.

System is expected to track rather rapidly west southwestward up to Wednesday early on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the low/mid levels. On this forecast track, northward of the upper level ridge 16.0S axis, system keeps on undergoing a weakening easterly vertical wind shear within the next 24 hours. Wind shear is expected to clearly weaken on and after Tuesday. System should then rapidly intensify thanks to very good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, very favorable sea surface temperature and good upper level outflows on the both sides).

From Wednesday, system should slow down then re-curve south southeastward to southward as a mid level ridge builds in the northeast of the system and as the mid-level subtropical high pressures weaken with a deep trough arriving from west.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track west-south-westward and then globally southward but they vary for the speed of the system. RSMC official forecast is close to ECMWF's one. The ECMWF ensemble prediction is rather spread on and after day 3.
** WTMA20 FIMP 080805 ***
WIND SPEEDS IN KNOTS
TTT WARNING OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EVOLVING IN LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 65.1 DEGREES EAST AT 0600Z HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND HAS BEEN NAMED 'IMELDA' BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 0630Z.
The Indian tropical cyclone is now named "Imelda" according to the Mauritius Meteorological Services.
816. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!

Good morning, everyone! Evening, Aussie! A miracle here, no rain over the weekend and the kids will be able to go out to recess! Of course Tuesday night or Wednesday morning rain with a possibility of severe weather. A balmy 65 degrees this morning with a high near 80 expected.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: omelets with all the trimmings, sausage, bacon, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands in the next couple of days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON APR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF VERY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM ABOUT 925 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND A 70 KNOT JET WILL BE INDUCED OVER THE
LOCAL AREA CAUSING FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW OF A REX BLOCK FORMS
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY. THE REX BLOCK WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVELS GAIN SOME MOISTURE MID WEEK
BUT DRY OUT AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND IN SCOPE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW BEARING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DURING THE WETTEST PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO ARE LIKELY AND MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHOWERS BEARING MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AT BETWEEN 16-18 KNOTS.
SOME WERE MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO AS DEEPLY AS CAYEY. THESE SHOWER
ARE EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.4- 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOT OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BOTH THE LOW AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES FORECAST BY THE 08/00Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND WRF OF 1.02 AND 1.68 INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY MAY BE EXAGGERATED. BUT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS MAY UNDER PERFORM HOWEVER...SINCE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE QUITE LIMITED IN MID LEVELS DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG CAPPING. A 70 KNOT JET WILL PROVIDE SOME
VENTILATION BUT ITS NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND THE LOWER MOISTURE
VALUES AROUND THE 400 TO 600 MB LAYER WILL WORK AGAINST STRONG
CONVECTION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE
WINDWARD NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE TO
PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING...AFTERNOON SHRA
FORECAST FOR TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ THROUGH 08/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS AGITATED WITH MOST EXPOSED WATERS SEEING 5 TO
6 FOOT SEAS WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. MODELS SUGGEST
SOME 7 FOOT SEAS BUT HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 75 / 20 40 40 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 50 30 30 30
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!!!



Good morning. Nice map of the global weather in one image.
Good morning. Here's today's severe weather outlook from the SPC:





No upgrade to moderate risk yet for Tuesday, we'll have to see if that changes.

Good morning everyone.

Today is my first chance at a strong to severe thunderstorm. The SPC has added part of southern Michigan in a 5% risk area for hail and high winds. The same goes for Wednesday. I hope I do actually get some action today and Wednesday. Also there is a 10% tornado risk and 30% hatched hail risk in W Kansas, SE Nebraska, and E Colorado today.
Good Morning Folks! rain chances go up wens.........
Hi everyone...

Big late snow for Denver and Rapid City...
bbl
Lots of Gulf mositure being pulled into midwest system..
This mornings pollen count is 2093....with a touch of pine finally getting in the mix...time for everything to turn yellow.
A new week begins. Everyone have a great Monday! Aussie, have a great Tuesday!

NCEP GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME INTO LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH DETAILS OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...RENDERING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...A
FEW LIMITING FACTORS HAVE MITIGATED A MODERATE RISK ISSUANCE ATTM.
ORCHARD GROWER..THIS MIGHT INTEREST YOU...............A Polk County farmer says she beat the winter weather with the help of an experimental project.

Shady Oak Farm first started using a new product during the last cold snap.

Blooming beautiful bushels of blueberries: it’s a sight Shady Oaks Farm manager Retta Baucom says will equal more green in their wallets.

“It’s a big impact versus making enough money to run the year or having to shut down at a certain point,” Baucom said.

A weak winter weather impact and an experimental product with the University of Florida are what she says kept the plants in tip-top shape.

More than a handful of local farms are testing the organic chemical in hopes it will protect plants in the winter.

“Depicoat is like a polymer. It puts sheeting over your plant to protect it from the freeze,” said Baucom.

Researchers at UF say it’s too soon to tell if this product works. They say it could take years to figure out, but the farm manger here says the proof is in the pudding when you look at the trees that were sprayed compared to ones that were not.

“The actual plants look better. It’s like it’s enhanced them,” Baucom said.

And she says the product is safe.

They’ll apply the product to the trees again when the next cold front comes throug, using a different technique.

“We are going two days before and then if the next night is also gonna be cold, we’ll spray that second night,” she said.

In the meantime Baucom says she’ll enjoy how fruitful the product has been so far.

“It cut down on my labor and my light bill,” Baucom said.

Researchers with the UF won’t reveal what the experimental chemical is. But they did tell us it’s a commercial product and the company picked the university to test it to get a non-biased analysis.
AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...AN EXTENSIVE QLCS MAY ULTIMATELY FORM PRIOR TO THE
FRONT REACHING THE MS VALLEY.

Trough tightens up a bit more



LLJ




CAPE in GA



EHI



precip




temp




.

Storms seem to approach Ga in the daytime under daytime heating, allowing for more EHI and a strengthening squall line.
GEFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING WEAKER BUOYANCY RELATIVE TO FARTHER W IN D2/D3.
STILL...THERE IS CONCERN THAT WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS REMAINING
QUITE STRONG...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD.
the ECMWF shows less CAPE in GA and a nighttime front, but the LLJ across the squall line might be favorable for the line to break up into a line of cells.









April 8th 1998 this tornado killed 32 people, a violent EF5
Good Morning/Evening.

Just going over the post. The strongest wind indicator seemed to be blowing at right angles to the tongue of protruding air from the wake low (In southern Mississippi). I take it, the last image in the blog was supposed to explain that, but the blue thumbprint on the wind map, doesn't mean as much to me as it should. Winds move perpendicular to Those lines instead of the isobars?
What did the boat hit after its moorings broke? Was there an anchor chain that ripped up the railing and tore a hole that high above the ship's hull?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:









April 8th 1998 this tornado killed 32 people, a violent EF5

F5*

They should be showing the rip tide safety video on PBS and in between saturday morning cartoons in Florida and along the coast, till kids know it by heart and are sick of it... like stop, drop, and roll. It can save alot of lives.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

F5*



yeah you're right.

Interestingly, the tornado was on a trajectory that if it had stayed on the ground for an additional two or three miles the high rises in downtown Birmingham would have been affected; four more miles and the Birmingham Airport would have seen the destruction as well.
This is the April 8 update of the sst anomalies so here are my highlights:

1-Tropical Atlantic remains above average even thou it has cooled.

2-Nino 3.4 warms a little bit.

3-PDO remains at negative even with the warming that has occurred.

4-Indian Ocean cools a tad.

5-Gulf of Guinea remans warm.

6-The tripole remains solid

7-Caribbean warms a little bit.

I did my local forecast blog for this week. Going to be a gloomy week for me. I got to go to school, have a great day.
844. VR46L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning. Nice map of the global weather in one image.


Thanks!! Yeah I love the site it comes from ... but you cant hot link it Norway Met site there is some really great imagery on it..
845. MahFL
There is a weired looking circular swirl south east of Melbourne, FL.
Good morning VR46L..
Hope all is well your way..
I hope these Sat.24 Images post for me..





Well they didn't.. :(

Maybe this one will..



stormy day coming Friday east coast states............
CAPE should be sufficient in tornado risks today. Could see a strong tornado if storms stay discrete.

Typically if the setup is an arcing type, storms fire up rapidly and produce tornadoes early in their life, with a merging formation by early evening. We'll see.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
852. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Good morning VR46L..
Hope all is well your way..
I hope these Sat.24 Images post for me..





Well they didn't.. :(

Maybe this one will..



HAHA !!! I Can :P

BTW Good Morning !!!





Quoting VR46L:


HAHA !!! I Can :P

BTW Good Morning !!!







LOL..
Good Morning to you too!!
Well I guess this isn't my lucky day..
Gotta go to the dentist and see about a tooth I injured over the weekend..
Hope it doesn't turn into a scene from "Little Shop of Horrors"..Lol..
Beautiful day here today,suns out and going up to 80 i guess and no rain in sight for a few days.
857. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


LOL..
Good Morning to you too!!
Well I guess this isn't my lucky day..
Gotta go to the dentist and see about a tooth I injured over the weekend.. :(


Sorry to hear that . hope its not damaged to bad
Quoting VR46L:


Sorry to hear that . hope its not damaged to bad


ER gave me some meds for infection and pain..
Been eating soft food since Sat..

But all will be taken care of today..
Hurray!!
860. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
Beautiful day here today,suns out and going up to 80 i guess and no rain in sight for a few days.


It will rain again by the weekend according to the forecasts ...

Not a very dry end to the dry season but its a good thing for you in that area!
861. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


ER gave me some meds for infection and pain..
Been eating soft food since Sat..

But all will be taken care of today..
Hurray!!


Happy Days !!:)
is the SAL weaker than normal this time of year,in comparison to previous years.
863. VR46L
Quoting stoormfury:
is the SAL weaker than normal this time of year,in comparison to previous years.


I would bet it is!! Look at the convection in the Sahara

On Wenseday it will be in it's mid 80's.But knowing D.C we could even reach upper 80's because of the heat island effect.
Quoting LargoFl:
ORCHARD GROWER..THIS MIGHT INTEREST YOU...............A Polk County farmer says she beat the winter weather with the help of an experimental project.
...
More than a handful of local farms are testing the organic chemical in hopes it will protect plants in the winter. “Depicoat is like a polymer. It puts sheeting over your plant to protect it from the freeze,” said Baucom. Researchers at UF say it’s too soon to tell if this product works.
...
Researchers with the UF won’t reveal what the experimental chemical is. But they did tell us it’s a commercial product and the company picked the university to test it to get a non-biased analysis.

Nothing like experimental chemicals that are kept secret being put on our orchard-grown food products.
Quoting VR46L:


I would bet it is!! Look at the convection in the Sahara



Still a lot out there, gonna be a while.

Link
868. VR46L
Quoting Chucktown:


Still a lot out there, gonna be a while.

Link


True , its just I cant recall seeing really decent convection in that area in a very long time that is there now .

869. VR46L
Quoting hurricane23:
16/9/5

TWC Hurricane Outlook


"While it is still three months before hurricane season officially begins, this early warming of the tropical waters is an indication that an active season is in store, and our statistical forecast models confirm this hypothesis," said Crawford.

Hmmm I make it 7 weeks to the 1st of June....
I will LMAO if we have another storm in May this year.
Quoting VR46L:


"While it is still three months before hurricane season officially begins, this early warming of the tropical waters is an indication that an active season is in store, and our statistical forecast models confirm this hypothesis," said Crawford.

I think confirm is too strong a word, but it makes for a better news story.
872. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

I think confirm is too strong a word, but it makes for a better news story.


Yep its to add dramatic effect ... definite media hype
Nino 3.4 warmed according to the CPC update. Find out how much it went up at my ENSO Blog.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Nothing like experimental chemicals that are kept secret being put on our orchard-grown food products.
yes i thought so too but..if the cold kills the crops..then we have nothing..a toss up which is better...well its still in testing..nothing going to the consumer yet.
Quoting VR46L:


True , its just I cant recall seeing really decent convection in that area in a very long time that is there now .



Could be high thin clouds?
Quoting VR46L:


It will rain again by the weekend according to the forecasts ...

Not a very dry end to the dry season but its a good thing for you in that area!
yes indeed, in our county area's they have cut back watering the lawns etc to once a week..people in florida know how HOT it gets here..brown lawns for sure....so any rain we do get..is a good thing.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nino 3.4 warmed according to the CPC update. Find out how much it went up at my ENSO Blog.



or they can go right here


Link
We should be finding out sometime between today and Friday which named storms from last season are being retired. My guess is Sandy (obviously) and possibly Isaac.
Here comes the heat and here comes the afternoon thunderstorms as well.


Quoting CybrTeddy:
We should be finding out sometime between today and Friday which named storms from last season are being retired. My guess is Sandy (and obvious one) and possibly Isaac.


I hope Isaac is not retired....
It was not significant enough IMO..
Not that it wasnt major, just not bad enough for retirement.


This year I'm thinking 18 - 6 - 4

4 US hits...maybe a couple majors.
deleted...do know if that happened already
884. VR46L
Quoting Thrawst:


Could be high thin clouds?


Dont think so ....

Quoting bappit:

I think confirm is too strong a word, but it makes for a better news story.
I disagree; they saying that the models confirm that we'll have a busy year, but that those models confirm, or agree with, their earlier hypotheses that we will, indeed, see a more active season than normal. Having said that, though, I suppose "verify" would have been a more scientifically accurate term, and one less likely to make some people think TWC was up to hanky-panky.
Another potent Gulf Storm for FL later this weekend into next week.

CMC


Euro

wish we had some NM or arizona posters they get bad weather too..
Interesting link about 10 billion year old supernova..Link
next week watching the gulf..............
Nam is slower than the GFS for the current storm front..
sometimes i just dont understand my own Government.....millions out of work or struggling just to stay even an How does our own govt spend OUR tax dollars?............(CNN) -- NASA is planning to catch an asteroid and place it in orbit around the moon.

Seriously.

What sounds like something from science fiction is actually a part of President Barack Obama's proposed federal budget for the next fiscal year, according to a Florida senator.

The budget is expected to be unveiled this week.
Quoting LargoFl:


Good Morning. Hot water alone does not make an early or devastating season for the Gulf as we have been very lucky the past several seasons with very warm sst's there and no major landfalls.

However, this temp chart correlates nicely with the current eddies and loops in the Gulf (see below). Remains to been where the Gulf hot spots and eddies will be come the peak of the season in Aug-Sept.

Link


Yikes. Cool day, good day for yard work. 58.0 now.

VR46L, did you see the race in Qatar?
895. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yikes. Cool day, good day for yard work. 58.0 now.

VR46L, did you see the race in Qatar?


OMG Did I ever !! It was amazing .. The Doctor is back !!! surgically going through the field .. I made a few pounds on him and JJ yesterday lol


51F here but a lil windy .. but the sun is out !!
Sun just broke out here as well. 58.1 here...
Nino 3.4, please cool!
Please no politics today..

Lets keep the blog as beautiful as its here today in eastern NC..we are expecting a high of 77 here today and its already 70 right now..everyone stay safe the next few days..some severe weather on tap for a lot of folks

Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, April 8

Isolated severe thunderstorms in western and central Kansas, northwest and north-central Oklahoma (excluding the panhandle), extreme northeast Colorado, south-central and southwest Nebraska. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 northwest KS.

Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

TOR:CON details:

CO northeast - 2 to 3
KS northwest - 4
KS north-central, south-central - 3
KS northeast night - 2
NE southwest, south-central - 2 to 3
NE southeast, night - 2
OK north-central, northwest - 3
Tuesday, April 9

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in south-central and eastern Kansas, northeastern quarter and western half of Missouri, western Arkansas, central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas, southeast Iowa, west-central Illinois. Maximum TOR:CON - 5 eastern Kansas.

Severe thunderstorms spreading overnight across central Texas, central Arkansas, east-central and southeast Missouri, and western Illinois.

TOR:CON details:

AR west - 3
AR central night - 3
IA southeast - 2
IL west-central - 3
IL southwest night - 3
KS east - 5
KS south-central - 4
MO northeast - 2 to 3
MO west half - 4
MO southeast, east-central night - 3 to 4
OK central - 3 to 4
OK northeast - 4
TX north-central, northeast - 3
TX central night - 2 to 3
Wednesday, April 10

Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front in extreme southwest MI, IN, northeast, central, south IL, west KY, west TN, north and west MS, west and central LA, east and southeast TX, spreading overnight into southeast LA, across MS and into west AL and possibly the west FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 4 east-central IL, west-central IN; 3 to 4 elsewhere
above.

TOR:CON details:

AL west night - 3 to 4
AR northeast, central, south - 3 to 4
FL west panhandle night - 3
IL east -central - 4
IL northeast, west-central, south - 3 to 4
IN west-central - 4
IN rest of state - 3 to 4
KY west - 3 to 4
LA west, central - 3 to 4
LA southeast night - 3 to 4
MI extreme southwest - 3 to 4
MO southeast, east-central - 3 to 4
MS west, north - 3 to 4
MS east, south night - 3 to 4
TN west - 3 to 4
TX east, southeast - 3 to 4
Thursday, April 11

Severe thunderstorms along and just ahead of a cold front in PA, WV, southeast OH, east KY,
east half TN, southwest VA, southwest NC, north and west GA, AL, east and south MS, southeast
LA, FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 3 these areas
Friday, April 12

Isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast VA, east NC, central and south FL. TOR:CON - 3 east NC.
Saturday, April 13

A low chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in south FL. TOR:CON - 1
899. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Here comes the heat and here comes the afternoon thunderstorms as well.




Thats a nice map for the drought areas ...
Quiet here this morning....



Cleared out where I am. Near the top of that doughnut shaped rectangle.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
It's possible that we could see some server weather around here on thursday.So far this year we haven't had a thunderstorm which is normal
(unlike last year).2012 had a thunderstorm in every month except Oct-Nov-Dec.The first thunderstorm in 2012 occurred in January.So we are 3 months behind all ready :).
Evening/Morning all. Off topic but I guess if Taz can get away with talking about silly acting, I mean wrestling. I can go off topic.

My friend gave me 2 Mac-books (13-inch & 17-inch) to fix, both have the same problems. On start up there is a chime then the grey screen appears with a folder with a ? flashing in it. I managed to download MacOS 10.4 to use the Disk Utility it has. On one Mac it finds the HDD and I did the verify and repair but after restart it's still had the folder with the flashing ?. The other it doesn't find the HDD so I am guessing the HDD is dead. I don't really want to re-istall the OS as it's not mine. I have gone to Apple forums and done the walk through's there but still nothing has worked. If anyone can help me it would be much appreciated.
Cheers AussieStorm