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Damaging Tornadoes Slam Plains

By: Shaun Tanner 6:50 AM GMT on April 15, 2012

A devastating string of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tracked through Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska on Saturday. This severe weather outbreak was remarkable in its duration as supercell thunderstorms began to pop up in western Kansas late Saturday morning, and the dry line that was supposed to represent the end of the severe weather threat was only halfway through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by 1:00 AM Central Time Sunday. The moisture difference on either side of this dry line was remarkable as well, with dew points in the upper 60's to the east, and a very dry 20's to the west.


SPC Storm Reports from Saturday

The SPC storm reports show the track of these storms, with Kansas being the hardest hit. Early in the afternoon, most of the supercell thunderstorms were consistently producing weak tornadoes that skipped across western and central Kansas. As the low-level jet stream kicked in late in the afternoon and into the evening, the thunderstorms strengthened considerably. Probably the most remarkable supercell thunderstorm began in western Oklahoma near Woodward as a stunning multi-vortex tornado. The tornado actually was several tornadoes that danced into southern Kansas and eventually threatened Wichita. The tornado passed just south and east of the city, producing an 84 mph wind gust at the Wichita Airport. It also did extensive damage at the airport. In addition, the Oaklawn area of Wichita was declared a disaster area very soon after the tornado passed. The Sedgwick County commissioner declared the county a disaster area. This wedge tornado eventually moved along the Kansas Turnpike northeast of Wichita before finally dissipating.


Figure 1. Double tornadoes in Oklahoma close to the Kansas border. Image credit: news9.com


Figure 2. This tornado sparked a fire in Oklahoma as it passed through the area northeast of Woodward. Image credit: news9.com

The deadliest tornado of the outbreak struck Woodward, OK early Sunday morning, as the main squall line moved through western Oklahoma. This tornado was very large and particularly dangerous since it occurred at night when most residents assumed the threat had ended. There were multiple reports of not hearing the city's siren, so it is entirely possible that the siren was either struck by lightning or hit by the tornado itself. At least five deaths have been confirmed in the Woodward area from this tornado. Probably the scariest video of a tornado I have ever seen was taken of this Woodward tornado as it moved into town. Note you can see the scale of the tornado as between power flashes.


Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage at the Wichita airport.

Perhaps the most telling feature of this severe weather outbreak was its repetitive nature. Salina, KS was tornado warned three times by three separate severe thunderstorms. Similarly, areas from Medicine Lodge to Kingman, Kansas were warned for two separate thunderstorms, while Woodward itself was warned very early in the day before a different tornado moved through the city late in the night.

Last night's storms have weakened, but a new round of severe weather is expected Sunday afternoon over portions of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region under their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk."

Shaun Tanner
Thunderstorm Wind Damage
Thunderstorm Wind Damage
Straight line winds from a thunderstorm this evening blew several semi tractor/trailers over on Interstate 29 in Fremont county, Iowa.
Freak Hail Storm Texas Panhandle
Freak Hail Storm Texas Panhandle
Night tornado
Night tornado
Night tornado in Manchester,OK
Clouds II
Clouds II

Tornado Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting RTSplayer:


Nature and models don't follow artificial man-made groupings or definitions on cyclone formation.


It could make a "warm seclusion" or just a "rotating thingamajig" for which we don't have a technical name.


GFS still takes it to 50kts surface winds.

NAM takes it to 46kts surface winds.

Euro still takes it to 33m/s @ 850mb layer which again translates to roughly 65mph surface winds.



So even if it doesn't meet the textbook definition of a TS, it's apparently going to be about the same strength anyway.

How do you know what the NAM takes it too? I didn't think the NAM ranged into the central Atlantic
Nothing yet from atcf about invest tonight. Tommorow is when we may have 91L.

Link
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
31.25N/51.23W
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I sort of agree with you... Why do sub-tropical storms get named when all the Nor'easters that roll up the east coast in the winter (except this past winter) and are just as bad as sub-tropical storms not get named?
Nor-easters are non-tropical in nature, and sub-tropical systems are, thats all i got to say :)






The prog charts stall the front out over txla, could
mean that areascould get 4+ inches!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nothing yet from atcf about invest tonight. Tommorow is when we may have 91L.

Link

It'll be clearer tomorrow on what'll happen, the system is still trying to seperate from the frontal boundary that's leaving it behind moving off east. 91L tomorrow most likely
We're here talking about the possibility of Alberto forming and the NHC might not even be watching it. They're strict on naming.
personally it's been remarkably quiet through all of the tropics this winter/spring. The cyclone season was really minimal due to the demise of the La Nina.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The beginnings of "Invest 91L"

yeah, looking better
510. Zappy
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nor-easters are non-tropical in nature, and sub-tropical systems are, thats all i got to say :)


IMO sub-tropical are not tropical, but it potentially could develop into a tropical system. That's why the NHC watches them and names them. "Potentially tropical"
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We're here talking about the possibility of Alberto forming and the NHC might not even be watching it. They're strict on naming.


I'm sure they have nothing better to do like us. :P
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We're here talking about the possibility of Alberto forming and the NHC might not even be watching it. They're strict on naming.


Not when it comes to



Like emilys tenth kid...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It'll be clearer tomorrow on what'll happen, the system is still trying to seperate from the frontal boundary that's leaving it behind moving off east. 91L tomorrow most likely
that part is about to commence as frontal boundary races away from the centre area
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
personally it's been remarkably quiet through all of the tropics this winter/spring. The cyclone season was really minimal due to the demise of the La Nina.

Numerically it was minimal but it was actually very bad in terms of damage, espcially Funso and Giovanna
I posted a blog to cover every corner of what's going on in the Atlantic basin...in practice for the upcoming hurricane season. Let me know what y'all think if you haven't taken a gander. This is my 4th such post this week...& it covers the subtropical cyclone potential as well as a severe weather summary of yesterday. I plan to do these posts daily during the season...so if there's anything you can recommend to make them better...give a shout out...

I'm off to taco bell cause I am hungry...I'll be back in half an hour...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How do you know what the NAM takes it too? I didn't think the NAM ranged into the central Atlantic


Go to the Tropical Weather page on Wunderground and scroll down till you see a link next to the models called "Cyclogenesis tracking page (NOAA/NCEP)".

Click on that.

Click on the most recent date/time on the top left.

Scroll down a full box and you will be on all the model's atlantic data.

If you like, you can look at the graphical displays, but most of them sort of suck.

Use the text display at the bottom of the chart instead.

You'll have to manually search for the latitude and longitude you are looking for and check all the data points manually, but it's a lot more precise than the stupid graphics which never seem to show all the important details.

This is what it should look like.


I got where I keep an extra copies of Wunderground open to the tropical weather page in both I.E. and Google Chrome, so I can access all the links to different tools. Different stuff runs better in different browsers.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We're here talking about the possibility of Alberto forming and the NHC might not even be watching it. They're strict on naming.

That's true, but they are watching it... they tagged it as a "developing system" on the surface chart.
Anybody see on the models any possible outbreaks of severe weather in the long term (or short term) ? I'm mad that I missed the opportunity to watch probably one of Kansas's most prolific tornado outbreaks yesterday... I coulda informed some people.
Quoting weatherh98:


Not when it comes to



Like emilys tenth kid...

Oh come on... Jose was a Cat 5. We all know it but no one will admit it... He gets no credit for his immense power.
Quoting yqt1001:


I'm sure they have nothing better to do like us. :P


Most of the Hurricane Specialists will be at the AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology this week.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Numerically it was minimal but it was actually very bad in terms of damage, espcially Funso and Giovanna

That's understandable, but im talking like Fiji storms and such, there seem to be MANY more storms in that region last year compared to this year.
can not be here long still computer problems should be back tomorrow or tuseday the latest
523. Zappy
Man those Victoria cells are trying hard to form a hook and rotate. I'll be back on later.

Argh EDIT: no signs of rotation in new velocity scan
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That's true, but they are watching it... they tagged it as a "developing system" on the surface chart.

Well, we know that their watching at least...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That's understandable, but im talking like Fiji storms and such, there seem to be MANY more storms in that region last year compared to this year.

Oh definitely... It was really quiet out there
Quoting weatherh98:


Not when it comes to



Like emilys tenth kid...

Yeah, that Emily was one heck of a birthmother.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We're here talking about the possibility of Alberto forming and the NHC might not even be watching it. They're strict on naming.


Its not like the guys at the NHC are less informed than we are...they see the say model runs we see and I'll bet they are watching it like we are....they just are very conservative in their products when it comes to discussing ANY out of season tropical event.
And...here...we..GO!!.
Quoting Thrawst:
Anybody see on the models any possible outbreaks of severe weather in the long term (or short term) ? I'm mad that I missed the opportunity to watch probably one of Kansas's most prolific tornado outbreaks yesterday... I coulda informed some people.

The GFS is showing no outbreaks anywhere in its model run. It looks like we are safe for a while with a minor cool blast entering the Eastern USA next week and high pressure building across the Central Plains.
Be back tomorrow... Bye everyone
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I dont know what is the opinion by all of you,but I dont like the naming of Sub-Tropical systems.This is the reason it's hard to have fewer than 10 named storms since they began naming them. (Except 2009) Prior to the last decade, there would not even have been the consideration of naming such a system.


Agree.... For me Weather science should name everything that is related to climatology and then measure and acquire & store data, the same way the hurricane season is treated.

Moderate risk bust.







Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Oh come on... Jose was a Cat 5. We all know it but no one will admit it... He gets no credit for his immense power.


No cat 7
Nice weather for West Palm Beach...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Moderate risk bust.








Yep... SPC struggled with today... You can't really blame them though because they had to focus most of their attention on yesterday
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS is showing no outbreaks anywhere in its model run. It looks like we are safe for a while with a minor cool blast entering the Eastern USA next week and high pressure building across the Central Plains.

That's good as you guys need a break cause more than likely you'll have atleast a few more large outbreaks between now and June. Whats up TAwx13?
Night all
Quoting sunlinepr:


Agree.... For me Weather science should name everything that is related to climatology and then measure and acquire & store data, the same way the hurricane season is treated.



The Europeans actually name non-tropical North Atlantic lows.


I suppose the NWS catalogs all of this in computers for years and years and uses models to "post-dict" conditions to test them or something. At least I hope they do, because even if models can't use all the data now, perhaps in the future we'll have computers strong enough to crunch the entire history of weather data...


If you had enough data points and robust enough code, it might be possible to produce a self-learning weather prediction model. It is, after all, just pure mathematics.
I'm out for the night... Hopefully we'll be tracking an invest tomorrow :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can not be here long still computer problems should be back tomorrow or tuseday the latest
Hope you get it fixed keeper you'll be missed
Looks like a good T-storm building just north of El Campo in southern Wharton County (for non-Texans - about 70 miles SW of Houston)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC083-117-119-160145-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0093.120416T0101Z-120416T0145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 757 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JERSEYVILLE TO WEST ALTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHALTO...STAUNTON...CARLINVILLE...GILLESPIE...BR IGHTON...
KEMPER...DORSEY...SHIPMAN...PRAIRIETOWN...WORDEN.. .BUNKER HILL...
LIVINGSTON...WILSONVILLE...BENLD...MOUNT OLIVE...GIRARD...
FIDELITY...PIASA...MILES STATION AND MEDORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 8970 3889 9007 3913 9031 3951 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 230DEG 51KT 3914 9026 3892 9017

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BRITT
did some one say Alberto ?

Quoting nigel20:

That's good as you guys need a break cause more than likely you'll have atleast a few more large outbreaks between now and June. Whats up TAwx13?

Hey.
April 1 SST Anomaly
Everybody decides to leave when I get on.
Quoting RTSplayer:


The Europeans actually name non-tropical North Atlantic lows.


I suppose the NWS catalogs all of this in computers for years and years and uses models to "post-dict" conditions to test them or something. At least I hope they do, because even if models can't use all the data now, perhaps in the future we'll have computers strong enough to crunch the entire history of weather data...


If you had enough data points and robust enough code, it might be possible to produce a self-learning weather prediction model. It is, after all, just pure mathematics.


Yes they archive the data, they ran all of the 2010 and 2011 storms to test the GFDL upgrade.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes they archive the data, they ran all of the 2010 and 2011 storms to test the GFDL upgrade.


I know that about tropical systems.

I'm sort of hoping they've been cataloging well, you know...everything...
Is the cap breaking SW of Houston?
Very severe cell.

Bottom of the line near the Mexico border in Texas.


Zapata TX 63 dBZ 49,000 ft. 75 kg/m 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 6 knots S (172)


I don't even think it's got a warning yet.


Edit:
This could produce some freakish hail totals or rainfall totals. Moving only 6 miles per hour.
I've been busy all day and really haven't had a chance to catch up on what is going on.
553. beell
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
can not be here long still computer problems should be back tomorrow or tuseday the latest


Hey, Keeper. Sorry to hear of your computer woes. I got me a whole new system about a month ago, and it's awesome, especially the monitor. And today I got my income tax refund to pay for it! :-)

On topic: Keeping an eye on potential 91L because of its (limited) chance to affect Atlantic Canada.
555. Tygor
Leave it to San Antonio to miss a squall line going across the entire country lol
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know that about tropical systems.

I'm sort of hoping they've been cataloging well, you know...everything...


Link
That is not going to be nice.

That line from the Zapata, TX to Alice, TX has up to 4.1 inches per hour rainfall rates and actual 1 hour totals, and it is almost completely stalled out.
Good lord! There's a tornado vortex signature in Jim Wells County just north of Premont!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Most of the Hurricane Specialists will be at the AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology this week.


Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.

Jeff Masters
Here's our extreme precipitation event for today:

O0 Zapata TX 69 dBZ 48,000 ft. 73 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 10 knots S (179)

1 P0 Jim Hogg TX 66 dBZ 42,000 ft. 60 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 19 knots SW (230)

1 R0 Jim Hogg TX 59 dBZ 43,000 ft. 28 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 0 knots new (0)

1 D1 Jim Hogg TX 62 dBZ 42,000 ft. 64 kg/m² 60% Chance 100% Chance 1.50 in. 2 knots WSW (244)

1 U4 Victoria TX 65 dBZ 44,000 ft. 51 kg/m² 60% Chance 100% Chance 1.25 in. 8 knots NW (305)
In case this hasn't been posted yet (I've been away most of the day), here's a short but great video of a "drillbit" tornado from yesterday. Watch it in full-screen HD to get the full effect; the best part begins at about 0:58. Yowsa...



Also: I see that the deep warmth is expected to return to many of the same areas affected during the March heat wave during the 8-14 day period:

Hot
Quoting JeffMasters:


Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.

Jeff Masters

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Cap over SE Texas is eroding fast
Quoting JeffMasters:


Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.

Jeff Masters


In that case, I'll root for no development.
Quoting Neapolitan:
In case this hasn't been posted yet (I've been away most of the day), here's a short but great video of a "drillbit" tornado from yesterday. Yowsa...



Also: I see that the deep warmth is expected to return to many of the same areas affected during the March heat wave during the 8-14 day period:

Hot




hey i want a heat wave the Plains will have too pay for that
Thank you, Dr Masters
I still have my doubts, but stranger things have happened in the past...

Over 4 inches radar estimated accumulation along that entire line in just the past 50 minutes!

4.6 inches per hour near premont, Tx!

Ridiculous.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.

Jeff Masters

Thanks for the info Dr. Masters
will we are geting closer too may so geting in to the mid 80s in CA now will be a vary good CH all so storms are be commeing less and less now has we head in too may



by mid may i want my 1st real heat wave


has am going too this lake on june 11th


Link


and buy that time i hop the water tempers are at lest the mid 50s hoping for the low 60s
Worst hail storm of the day, no doubt about it.

A1 Zapata TX 69 dBZ 45,000 ft. 82 kg/m%uFFFD 100% Chance 100% Chance 4.00 in. 2 knots WSW (239)

1 T1 Zapata TX 65 dBZ 48,000 ft. 74 kg/m%uFFFD 90% Chance 100% Chance 2.50 in. 12 knots WSW (251)

1 P0 Jim Hogg TX 66 dBZ 40,000 ft. 66 kg/m%uFFFD 90% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 2 knots NNE (14)

1 D1 Jim Hogg TX 64 dBZ 38,000 ft. 61 kg/m%uFFFD 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 2 knots N (352)


This is going to need a flash flood warning soon.


Edit:

its at 4.8 inches per hour now...

Was briefly at 5 inches per hour 20 minutes ago.
I believe this was one of the best warned-upon outbreaks in USA history.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Cap over SE Texas is eroding fast


Might get interesting over the next few hours, doubt the actual rain we get will be anywhere near the forecast totals though.
Quoting Tygor:
Leave it to San Antonio to miss a squall line going across the entire country lol


Wasn't it supposed to be raining cats and dogs? NWS stated: 70 POP. Austin at 100 POP. Nada Zip...
Quoting Articuno:

???
be back later..

and now I'm back...
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Wasn't it supposed to be raining cats and dogs? NWS stated: 70 POP. Austin at 100 POP. Nada Zip...


Drought may be coming back
Well.

Corpus measure it as 5.5 inches 1 hour running total.

Brownsville gives 5.8 inches 1 hour running total.

Most I've ever seen on a radar estimate.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well.

Corpus measure it as 5.5 inches 1 hour running total.

Brownsville gives 5.8 inches 1 hour running total.

Most I've ever seen on a radar estimate.


Don't know if Corpus and Brownsville radars are just hot or what, Houston radar shows less near Victoria for 1 hr running totals. In fact the Houston radar is always less aggressive on echos and running totals period.



Quoting RitaEvac:


Don't know if Corpus and Brownsville radars are just hot or what, Houston radar shows less near Victoria for 1 hr running totals. In fact the Houston radar is always less aggressive on echos and running totals period.


The line is only moving 2 knots.

It seems to have almost unlimited moisture available.

VIL is just as high as before it even started raining there.


It's possible the radars are looking too high and looking directly at hail cores or something...

...but the brownsville radar should have an un-obstructed view of all the cells, since it doesn't have to look "through" any of them to see the others.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Drought may be coming back


LOL They just reinstated drought restrictions. Despite it being the 4th wettest Jan-Mar in history. Oh well....
It's gotta be for real.

Flash Flood warning just went up for the Zapata cell.

The cells to the north are weakening and haven't rained quite as much, but they may get a warning too.

Edit:

Continues with 5.8inch per hour running total.

Has 7.6inch storm total now.

Edit:

VIL is higher than when the storm started!


A1 65 dBZ 51,000 ft. 82 kg/m 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 2 knots WNW (294)

Z0 65 dBZ 41,000 ft. 60 kg/m 60% chance 100% chance 1.50 in. 10 knots NNE (25)

1 P0 65 dBZ 38,000 ft. 60 kg/m 60% chance 100% chance 1.25 in. 14 knots NE (36)

1 H1 64 dBZ 49,000 ft. 79 kg/m 80% chance 100% chance 2.00 in. 6 knots NE (54)


passed 8 inches total since past edit.

0.4 inches per radar frame now...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
904 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018 -019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-0 99-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
904 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS..

$$

TES
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC505-160430-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0001.120416T0223Z-120416T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
923 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALEJANDRENAS AND LOPENO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.

LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2693 9902 2679 9895 2671 9899 2664 9920
2667 9921 2672 9921 2675 9925 2679 9925
2682 9927 2685 9928

$$

64
5.9 inches 1 hour running surface accumulation!

Incredible.

I mean even if it's over-estimating it by half, that would still be 3 inches per hour...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I dont know what is the opinion by all of you,but I dont like the naming of Sub-Tropical systems.This is the reason it's hard to have fewer than 10 named storms since they began naming them. (Except 2009) Prior to the last decade, there would not even have been the consideration of naming such a system.
They are being included in the count with the reanalysis project, however. Named or unnamed, They r a part of the record.
Quoting BahaHurican:
They are being included in the count with the reanalysis project, however. Named or unnamed, They r a part of the record.


Yes,that is correct. I brought this topic as is a good one to have a civil discussion.
Quoting RTSplayer:
5.9 inches 1 hour running surface accumulation!

Incredible.

I mean even if it's over-estimating it by half, that would still be 3 inches per hour...
boy we sure could use that storm here in florida
Here is the 00z Surface Analysis.

VIL is still near 80 on these cells, even after 2 consecutive hours of 3 inches or more per hour rainfall accumulations.

N1 68 dBZ 45,000 ft. 76 kg/m 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 8 knots N (6)
1 A1 67 dBZ 50,000 ft. 80 kg/m 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 10 knots NW (315)
1 H1 64 dBZ 47,000 ft. 79 kg/m 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 6 knots NNW (343)

Edit:

At least they're moving 8kts now, instead of 2kts.
Quoting RTSplayer:
VIL is still near 80 on these cells, even after 2 consecutive hours of 3 inches or more per hour rainfall accumulations.

N1 68 dBZ 45,000 ft. 76 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 8 knots N (6)
1 A1 67 dBZ 50,000 ft. 80 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 10 knots NW (315)
1 H1 64 dBZ 47,000 ft. 79 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 6 knots NNW (343)

going to be some flooding there for sure
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the 00z Surface Analysis.


Apparantly THEY think it's gonna seperate from the frontal boundary, it just has to get them to BELIEVE that it's gonna become Alberto.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC247-160500-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0004.120416T0252Z-120416T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
952 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...RANDADO
AND RURAL AREAS ALONG FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1017.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9852 2726 9853 2723 9849 2715 9849
2714 9847 2708 9847 2688 9871 2704 9895
2729 9852

$$

64
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the 00z Surface Analysis.



Frontal surface low at 1200Z TAFB was 1013 mb
Frontal surface low at 1800Z TAFB was 1012 mb
Frontal surface low at 0000Z TAFB was 1011 mb

Looks like our pre-subtropical cyclone is deepening by 1 mb every six hours so far. This deepening rate could accelerate as the cut-off upper trough continues to amplify, which in turn will increase the divergence over the surface low.
well thats it for me guys..good night
Quoting beell:

Shallow warm-core is good enough for the NHC. They'll call it Sub-tropical so as long as it's a warm core they'll designate it, or recognize that it has potential. It'll be a close call, Around Tuesday is when it should be at it's best if it's not designated by Wednesday night, then it has no chance of becoming our Alberto.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Cap over SE Texas is eroding fast


Hah...and this from the guy who reported bitterly earlier that the cap was firmly in place...LOL. Hopefully you will get some needed in rain in Houston.

Did the Victoria or Goliad supercell ever get tornado warned? From the discussions here...sounds like it didn't...
Global demand for solar panels grew by about 40 percent last year, but excess manufacturing capacity has created a glut of supplies that forced companies...to slash prices.

Average...prices for the photovoltaic modules...have dropped to 80 to 85 cents per watt, a decline of [10to16] percent from levels near 95 cents recorded at the end of 2011, a year that saw prices fall by about 50 percent. Those price drops have helped boost solar sales and made solar power less dependent on subsidies to compete against fossil fuels. ...subsidies have declined in Germany and Italy, the two biggest markets.

Analysts have forecast total market demand will be near steady with last year's levels around 27 GW.

[Some] panels had been offered at 75 cents or below, although that equipment was made by lower-quality "tier 3" companies in China, who are appear to be clearing out inventories to raise cash, even if they are selling products at a loss. "Those are essentially going-out-of-business sales."
"It's fully possible that at some point in the year we get to the 70-cent a watt range. The balance between supply and demand right now is very fragile. There's still a massive amount of capacity."
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Shallow warm-core is good enough for the NHC. They'll call it Sub-tropical so as long as it's a warm core they'll designate it, or recognize that it has potential. It'll be a close call, Around Tuesday is when it should be at it's best if it's not designated by Wednesday night, then it has no chance of becoming our Alberto.


It will not even become 91L.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've been busy all day and really haven't had a chance to catch up on what is going on.


Severe weather wise....
(Supercell #1) Weak tornado near Ericson in NE Nebraska. The tornado dissipated, and then the supercell re-produced another brief tornado near the NE Nebraska/SE South Dakota border. The cell continued NE and produced yet another brief tornado in SW Minnesota well to the south of Hutchinson before dissipating.

(Supercell #2) New tornado-producing supercell in SW Minnesota to the east of supercell #1. Signature was just north of Glencoe and not far west of Minneapolis/St. Paul

(Supercell #3) New tornado warning around 6:21 PM CDT on a disorganized supercell heading ENE in direction of Batesville, Arkansas. The cell quickly got disorganized and elongates north-south by 6:38 PM CDT at a location west of Batesville.

(Supercell #4) Supercell explosively develops just SW of Victoria, Texas tracking ENE by 6:35 PM CDT. Supercell is well-organized with hook echo but not yet tornado warned. At 6:36 PM CDT...it gets a severe thunderstorm warning. The cell continues east with its precip core passing over Victoria by 7:32 PM CDT. The south end of the precip core shows another tornadic-like hook just SE of Victoria at that time.

(Supercell #5) Just SW of Supercell #4...a new supercell erupts and also has a severe T-storm warning by 6:53 PM CDT. The cell is just south of Goliad, TX.

In the Atlantic...it appears the long-awaited subtropical cyclone is getting started. The low pressure center that is supposed to become "Alberto" began around 1200Z along the Atlantic Ocean cold front.
99P
Quoting Bluestorm5:
as did I. Almost got hit by 2 EF3 that went through my area and tornado missed my grandparents in Sanford by a mile.
I remember u talking abt this....

Quoting washingtonian115:
Everybody decides to leave when I get on.
Night crew is having 'puter problems, it seems - or school 2morrow,... lol
Did the Victoria or Goliad supercell ever get tornado warned? From the discussions here...sounds like it didn't...


It didn't.
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
OK.... something weird going on w/ my filter setting... keeps defaulting 2 average...

5 min later....

Now it's working again.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It will not even become 91L.

Im gonna save that comment for tomorrow.
Quoting BahaHurican:
OK.... something weird going on w/ my filter setting... keeps defaulting 2 average...


Just reset your settings.
A tornado moves on the ground north of Solomon, Kan., on Saturday evening, April 14, 2012, with I-70 seen in the foreground. — in Solomon, KS.
NCH---2009 Nice Avatar. Saw that the other night but it was off topic so I didn't comment then. Was very busy and I was trying to keep up.

115- How are you tonight?
Geoff, I that it's going to get at least an invest.

Even if that's all it gets, it is amazing to think of 2 invests before May...
Quoting PedleyCA:
NCH---2009 Nice Avatar. Saw that the other night but it was off topic so I didn't comment then. Was very busy and I was trying to keep up.

115- How are you tonight?


Hah...thanks....
Hey, I suggested that someone get with it and do something and I like the direction you took with that. Kind of mocking the request in a funny way. It does send a message.....
617. wxmod
Busy day making weather in Mid-Pacific today. MODIS satellite photos.



577 SubtropicalHi: Wasn't it supposed to be raining cats and dogs?
NWS stated: 70 POP. Austin at 100 POP. Nada Zip...

579 RitaEvac: Drought may be coming back
584 SubtropicalHi: LOL They just reinstated drought restrictions. Despite it being the 4th wettest Jan-Mar in history. Oh well....

Got a BIG Drought to make up for. Until the water tables are restored to normal and the upstream reservoirs are filled, even a short dry spell could put Texas back into extreme water shortages.
So ya gotta keep being thrifty with water use for a spell to allow recharging.eg Brownsville's been gettin' drenched,
but the RioGrande&Pecos river basin that supplies dry season water is still in drought.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geoff, I that it's going to get at least an invest.

Even if that's all it gets, it is amazing to think of 2 invests before May...


Don't think so Baha...but I have been wrong twice.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geoff, I that it's going to get at least an invest.

Even if that's all it gets, it is amazing to think of 2 invests before May...


Are you kidding...we had five invests last year before the Atlantic season started. That's even more impressive LOL (We had 90L in March near the Azores...91L in April similar to today's system...92L thru 94L in May).

By the way...I don't know why this emerging subtropical disturbance is getting bashed so quickly. It was just born at 1200Z when the NHC added the surface low in the TAFB analyses...give it some time y'all before you hurt its feelings to much...sheesh LOL...

Still not that common 2 have 2 invests b4 May...

but we shall see 2morrow...

geez, my hand is really hurting again, so I think I'll head to bed.

Not looking 4ward 2 work 2morrow with my hand like this.
Someone may have already posted this...

NWS Norman has given an EF3 preliminary rating to the Woodward, OK tornado that happened just after midnight April 15. "Damage survey ongoing."

And I'm rooting for Alberto. He'll make a good trivia question one day.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Still not that common 2 have 2 invests b4 May...

but we shall see 2morrow...

geez, my hand is really hurting again, so I think I'll head to bed.

Not looking 4ward 2 work 2morrow with my hand like this.


You did too much typing or something? I'm in the same boat here...LOL

Well...I guess that means I'll head out too...good night all....
Models..especially ECMWF & CMC are wanting 91L & possibly a STS or something (the rest have a cold core low). Here's 12ZCMC phase analysis.


Looking at this it really just looks too cold to expect as much as some models are, without some baroclinic support. Though strange things can happen when a storm gets rapped up that way & then cut off.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe this was one of the best warned-upon outbreaks in USA history.

Neat graphic.

Fwiw, you and a lot of the bloggers here have been doing a great job covering the severe. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
:)
OK, everyone have a good night and Stay Safe All.
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Before y'all get your feathers too ruffled up...



;)

First TS will come in June this year.


Was the range of this map recently expanded to include months outside of the official hurricane season or was it always beyond just June 1 - November 30?
Woodward city manager Alan Riffel told CNN that all the missing people had been accounted for but 89 homes and 13 businesses had been destroyed.

"It's remarkable we didn't have more loss of life," governor Mary Fallin said, adding that many Woodward residents had either gone to sleep or dropped their guard after an earlier series of storms swept through the area.

She spoke to several whose homes were struck, including a man who said he was asleep on his sofa with his dog when the tornado hit, depositing them unhurt in the backyard.

The storm damaged a hangar at McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita, Kansas, and destroyed several homes around the area.

Storm chaser Brandon Redmond, a meteorologist with the Severe Weather Alert Team, said the twister passed over his vehicle and lifted it 60 centimetres off the ground in an industrial area south of Wichita..

"The tornado literally formed over our vehicle," he said.

"I've never been that scared in my life... we had power flashes all around us and debris circulating all around the vehicle, sheet metal, parts of a roof, plywood."

American Red Cross workers were operating shelters and providing meals, as well as relief and clean-up supplies such as comfort kits, tarps, coolers and rakes.
Quoting Neapolitan:
In case this hasn't been posted yet (I've been away most of the day), here's a short but great video of a "drillbit" tornado from yesterday. Watch it in full-screen HD to get the full effect; the best part begins at about 0:58. Yowsa...



Also: I see that the deep warmth is expected to return to many of the same areas affected during the March heat wave during the 8-14 day period:

Hot



Incredible, this is a great example as to why a small tornado doesn't necessarily mean weak, although generally speaking a wedge tornado usually does mean a strong tornado in every case I know of.

Anyways, thank God nobody was being hit by that, those were some extremely intense winds.
635. wxmod
Custom Designer Weather. This is better than the old fashioned stuff! MODIS




One of the most amazing lightning videos I've ever seen, its amazing anyone survives lightning, thankfully its all about the physics, the extreme short duration of current flow leads to very little dissipation of energy into the body from the arc, which is also why you see no fire here. Thousands of amps charged at millions of volts just got relocated in a fraction of a second :)
Quoting wxmod:
Custom Designer Weather. This is better than the old fashioned stuff! MODIS



so what makes people like you really think we control the weather? other than climate change and cloud seeding, whats the technique?

other than looking and a satellite image and saying "yup thats modified weather alright..."
629 Skyepony[quoting kiitv.com]: Flood fatigue in SE TX.

EastTexas: the Sabine River is bordering Louisiana. Why do they keep calling the Houston metroplex and northward SouthEast Texas, when the area is clearly located in easternTexas
Quoting aspectre:
629 Skyepony: Flood fatigue in SE TX.

The Sabine River is bordering Louisiana. Why do they keep calling the Houston metroplex and northward SouthEast Texas, when the area is clearly located in easternTexas.


Because East texas is up in the Piney Woods. Southeast Texas is really more of a Gulf Coast thing. It's the Arm of Texas, and we're in the Armpit.
Quoting trunkmonkey:




and again, the government handed breaks to Solyndra Inc., an upstart California solar panel firm backed by a major supporter of the president.

~snip~
Hey, Trunkmonkey.

1) You should always provide attribution when pasting such a large chunk of text. FWIW, the article you copied in its entirety is a seven-month-old piece from iWatchNews.

2) The article you pasted was published before separate independent investigations of the Solyndra loan guarantees failed to show any evidence whatsoever that politics influenced any decision making about those loan guarantees.

3) Even if the Solyndra deal had turned out to be the largest scandal to ever strike the United States--which it wasn't--that wouldn't change one iota what aspectre said: that PV prices are dropping as technology improves, making solar an increasingly more attractive source of alternative energy.
Good Monday Morning, everyone. It's been booming thunder nonstop for about two and a half hours here in my part of Louisiana. We're already under a flood statement, that's fast. Hope all have a great Monday!
Morning, all. Still cool and windy here, though not so windy for now. Currently 75 and cloudy.

Have a great Monday, everybody.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good Monday Morning, everyone. It's been booming thunder nonstop for about two and a half hours here in my part of Louisiana. We're already under a flood statement, that's fast. Hope all have a great Monday!

Three different storms during the night (Lake Jackson, TX). One of my Poms always barks at the first thunder, and she did it three times last night. 3 3/4" total precip. Radar shows another storm headed up from Victoria.

Who was it who asked for rain in the Houston area???
Good Morning folks..69 and clear here this morning is sunny and bone dry central Florida, have a great day everyone
Quoting BahaHurican:
I remember u talking abt this....

Night crew is having 'puter problems, it seems - or school 2morrow,... lol

Morning everyone... It's school vacation week for me!!!!
I'm not liking the chances of our potential future 91L/Alberto... I think it'll stay cold core

still a lil dangerous out there...................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC409-161100-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120416T1100Z/
SAN PATRICIO-
549 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...

AT 544 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF
GREGORY...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF MCCAMPBELL AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATE HIGHWAY 35 NORTHEAST OF GREGORY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2791 9715 2783 9720 2785 9726 2787 9726
2786 9731 2789 9740 2798 9732 2798 9727
2794 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 241DEG 14KT 2792 9725

$$
This is what I say
we will have Alberto this week
we will have Beryl next month
we will hace Chris in June
then the season begin and the hunting will comence
So, is that line from Zapata to Alice in Texas still on the map?

Last nights insane rainfall rates pushed the radar estimated accumulation above a foot, most of it within the first two hours!
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 AM TORNADO 1 N PORTLAND 27.89N 97.33W
04/16/2012 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE TO HOMES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PORTLAND. FENCES AND
TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0544 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE WOODSBORO 28.20N 97.28W
04/16/2012 REFUGIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROAD ON FM 1360 AND ARANSAS RIVER ROAD
BETWEEN WOODSBORO AND BAYVIEW.

0544 AM TORNADO GREGORY 27.92N 97.29W
04/16/2012 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE TO COTTON GIN NEAR GREGORY ALONG WITH POWERLINES
DOWN.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

That means its forming good right?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Still completely frontal in nature it appears. Give it time though, these things don't usually appear overnight....

On another note, looks like my area might hit 90 degrees today, which is absolutely insane for this time of year. This heat is also contributing to a lot of drought, as the lawn is still mostly dormant, even though it should be growing season.
Boston MA

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. South wind between 8 and 16 mph.
I don't know if anybody has seen this but it looks as if another severe wx outbreak maybe looming this weekend for FL, coastal GA, and coastal Carolina's. Also lots of rain for these areas which is needed as we are in a severe drought.




Euro
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its still got a front going but it looks like it has better circulation.
Quoting weatherh98:


Its still got a front going but it looks like it has better circulation.


Too far north and the air is too cool to get anything tropical out of this. Now if this was near Bermuda then we could be looking at Alberto as the waters are a little warmer.
Quoting Ameister12:


amazing video thanks for sharing!
Exactly one year ago, the final day of one of the worst tornado outbreaks in United States history would soon begin. A high risk, the first for 2011, would be issued for northeastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. A squall line rapidly formed in the central portion of the state and moved eastward, gradually transitioning into supercells. At 3:15 p.m. EDT, a tornado emergency was issued for the city of Raleigh as an upper-end EF3 moved through.

The cities of Fayetteville, Jacksonville, Goldsboro, and Wilson would all be hit by an EF2 or higher tornado.

April 14-16, 2011 was the deadliest outbreak since the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008, but it would soon be surpassed not even two weeks later by 2011's Super Outbreak. If only we had knew what was about to happen...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Exactly one year ago, the final day of one of the worst tornado outbreaks in United States history would soon begin. A high risk, the first for 2011, would be issued for northeastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. A squall line rapidly formed in the central portion of the state and moved eastward, gradually transitioning into supercells. At 3:15 p.m. EDT, a tornado emergency was issued for the city of Raleigh as an upper-end EF3 moved through.

The cities of Fayetteville, Jacksonville, Goldsboro, and Wilson would all be hit by an EF2 or higher tornado.

April 14-16, 2011 was the deadliest outbreak since the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008, but it would soon be surpassed not even two weeks later by 2011's Super Outbreak. If only we had knew what was about to happen...



I'm surprised none were rated higher than EF-3. Any thoughs on the models for this weekend as it looks active for the coastal SE US?
1/2 inch so far in West houston - with more on the way!
708 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 703 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TILDEN...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL MCMULLEN COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 33N48W 1007 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM N SEMCIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N49W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N53W 1000 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 40W AND 59W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N58W 1005 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
40W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.



Link
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 33N48W 1007 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM N SEMCIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N49W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N53W 1000 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 40W AND 59W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N58W 1005 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
40W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.



Link




Separate from that front Bert!!
Thanks Shaun!

Great and timely update.
Here it comes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Exactly one year ago, the final day of one of the worst tornado outbreaks in United States history would soon begin. A high risk, the first for 2011, would be issued for northeastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. A squall line rapidly formed in the central portion of the state and moved eastward, gradually transitioning into supercells. At 3:15 p.m. EDT, a tornado emergency was issued for the city of Raleigh as an upper-end EF3 moved through.

The cities of Fayetteville, Jacksonville, Goldsboro, and Wilson would all be hit by an EF2 or higher tornado.

April 14-16, 2011 was the deadliest outbreak since the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008, but it would soon be surpassed not even two weeks later by 2011's Super Outbreak. If only we had knew what was about to happen...



I actually was on the road to Charlotte that day..went through some of the worst storms I have ever seen..my radio in the car constantly went off with Emergency warnings..people are still rebuilding in Bladen County where three people died that day
The front which dropped a ton of rain on Texas last night dropped a ton of snow on us overnight. I was completely unprepared for the snow day that was coming.

Our average low isn't even below freezing anymore.

Oh well, I only have to go to school 3 days this week! :D
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here it comes.


There's two big cold fronts attached though.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There's two big cold fronts attached though.


It appears it's trying to detach, and will probably do so later this week as it moves southward towards Bermuda. This is very similar to Tropical Storm Ana's development in 2003, except this system is moving in the opposite direction.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It appears it's trying to detach, and will probably do so later this week as it moves southward towards Bermuda. This is very similar to Tropical Storm Ana's development in 2003, except this system is moving in the opposite direction.


I agree the southward movement should help this become STS Alberto. Well see!
Whats that NE of Brazil it does not look itz related but more like a Tropical Wave to me . But then i am not aquainted in what it uses to form a wave.
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 727 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

727 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INGLESIDE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND...SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARANSAS PASS...
PALM HARBOR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree the southward movement should help this become STS Alberto. Well see!


We certainty will. The phase diagrams indicate that this will become shallow-warm core on it's eastward track. While climatology is against it, it is entire possible our first named storm of the year will form tomorrow or Wednesday.
The system has 3 days to detach from those 2 fronts, which is very feasible. Some of the storms in 2011 managed to detach from a front within 12 hours of being invested.

Any idea on if it's cold core or shallow warm core yet?
Looking more and more that El-Nino will be here this summer. Looking like we maybe sitting at +1.5 by October.

Quoting belizeit:
Whats that NE of Brazil it does not look itz related but more like a Tropical Wave to me . But then i am not aquainted in what it uses to form a wave.


Is part of ITCZ according to them.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W TO ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 47W-55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 4N27W TO 2N31W.
Quoting yqt1001:
The system has 3 days to detach from those 2 fronts, which is very feasible. Some of the storms in 2011 managed to detach from a front within 12 hours of being invested.

Any idea on if it's cold core or shallow warm core yet?


CFSv2 (SOI NOW AT -6!)

Quoting CybrTeddy:




Thanks!
Damm we maybe in El-nino by the end of May beginning of June.
Today's updated anomalies graphic.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today's updated anomalies graphic.



Big increase it appears across the eastern Pacific. Also look what it's doing to the MJO. Folks this could be bad for the US as this could be the year for big Gulf & Caribbean hurricanes.

This could be a summer where the MJO stays in our neck of the woods. Yes we probably wont have the number that we had the last 2 years but the ones that do form could be take aim at C America and the Gulf Coast region.
Quoting yqt1001:
The system has 3 days to detach from those 2 fronts, which is very feasible. Some of the storms in 2011 managed to detach from a front within 12 hours of being invested.

Any idea on if it's cold core or shallow warm core yet?


SST's won't support a warm core/ subtropical storm
Quoting CybrTeddy:



The CMC is pretty much the only one thinking warm core though... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET all say cold core
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Big increase it appears across the eastern Pacific. Also look what it's doing to the MJO. Folks this could be bad for the US as this could be the year for big Gulf & Caribbean hurricanes.



That's exactly it. People always seem to say that "El Nino = bust season" but it just increases the chances of a bust season. El Nino doesn't mean that a perfect storm of events can't happen and produce a 200mph monster, just decreases the chances.
Quoting yqt1001:


That's exactly it. People always seem to say that "El Nino = bust season" but it just increases the chances of a bust season. El Nino doesn't mean that a perfect storm of events can't happen and produce a 200mph monster, just decreases the chances.


Possibly...one of the key factors is going to be wind shear
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is on the increase...we are above last year at this time

2011


2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The CMC is pretty much the only one thinking warm core though... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET all say cold core


Agreed. That was just yesterday's CMC reposted. Here's 06ZGFS


Checking those water temps..


00ZCMC has it more warm core but shallow, the SST are just as cold. There are Extratropical warm core off Greenland at times but they don't get invest or storm statues cause the SST are too cold. I'm not too excited~ little chance for a subtropical something, about no chance of something fully tropical.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I don't know if anybody has seen this but it looks as if another severe wx outbreak maybe looming this weekend for FL, coastal GA, and coastal Carolina's. Also lots of rain for these areas which is needed as we are in a severe drought.




Euro


After this weekend(behind the front) it appears Orlando will enjoy highs in the low 70's with lows in the 40's/50's.
Quoting Bergeron:
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is on the increase...we are above last year at this time

2011


2012

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looking more and more that El-Nino will be here this summer. Looking like we maybe sitting at +1.5 by October.



Unlike last time, this looks to be a traditional El Nino!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hey, Trunkmonkey.

1) You should always provide attribution when pasting such a large chunk of text. FWIW, the article you copied in its entirety is a seven-month-old piece from iWatchNews.

2) The article you pasted was published before separate independent investigations of the Solyndra loan guarantees failed to show any evidence whatsoever that politics influenced any decision making about those loan guarantees.

3) Even if the Solyndra deal had turned out to be the largest scandal to ever strike the United States--which it wasn't--that wouldn't change one iota what aspectre said: that PV prices are dropping as technology improves, making solar an increasingly more attractive source of alternative energy.


Just another case of someone using an innocuous comment, in this cse about he drop in PV pricing, to tout their political agenda...
Checking the scatterometers..Windsat is flailing... ASCAT may get it in the next few hours.
Quoting Floodman:


Just another case of someone using an innocuous comment, in this cse about he drop in PV pricing, to tout their political agenda...
Good morning Flood.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.


Homegrown...yes..pretty powerful...maybe. The setup, if it remains the same as far as sst anomalies, there would have to be R.I. which would most likely occur in the GOMEX...then once again, the key factor would depend on shear.
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Flood.


Good morning sir, how are you?
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3


CFS1 will be discontinued in June. CFSv2 will be the only NCEP model for ENSO after June.
Geezus.....lightning and thunder for 7-8 straight hrs last night. Didn't sleep, couldn't sleep, by the time you start falling asleep a clap of thunder awakens you only to start the process all over again.

Only 0.86" at the house near the NWS. Just a few miles SW places got up to 3-5 inches. Whole night was lit up constantly, crazy.
Quoting Floodman:


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?


LOL. We still have 45 days till the season starts. It will be interesting to see if this trend of the MJO hanging out across the Caribbean, Gulf, & E-Pac. I think all indicators are in place for an active year in terms of US landfalls across the Gulf region eventhough we may only have 10 to 12 storms.
Quoting weatherbro:


After this weekend(behind the front) it appears Orlando will enjoy highs in the low 70's with lows in the 40's/50's.
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.
Quoting Floodman:


Who's calling it a bust? A ittle early to sound the all clear, you think?
I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)

Quoting RitaEvac:
Geezus.....lightning and thunder for 7-8 straight hrs last night. Didn't sleep, couldn't sleep, by the time you start falling asleep a clap of thunder awakens you only to start the process all over again.

Only 0.86" at the house near the NWS. Just a few miles SW places got up to 3-5 inches. Whole night was lit up constantly, crazy.


Some areas have seen 6" to 8" to your south.

Radar is way over doing rainfall totals in Houston/Galveston area. I've gotten less than an inch and I'm right near the NWS



Quoting Neapolitan:
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



I think he's going by Accuweather which they over exaggerate everything on that site. It will problaby be 83 to 86 next week with lows in the 60's.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CFS1 will be discontinued in June. CFSv2 will be the only NCEP model for ENSO after June.

yes I know but is it June 1st? and please just answer the question
Quoting Neapolitan:
2) The article you pasted was published before separate independent investigations of the Solyndra loan guarantees failed to show any evidence whatsoever that politics influenced any decision making about those loan guarantees.


Same thing has happened a few times with various climate groups. Michael Mann being one, East Anglia being another big one. It appears that sometimes people want someone to be guilty of something so bad, they convict them in their minds before all the evidence is in, and refuse to change their mind when the evidence arrives.

In similar fashion to how some have treated Solyndra, the researchers at East Anglia have been exonerated by at least 4 different independent investigations, but that's not acceptable to some, and likely never will be.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL. We still have 45 days till the season starts. It will be interesting to see if this trend of the MJO hanging out across the Caribbean, Gulf, & E-Pac. I think all indicators are in place for an active year in terms of US landfalls across the Gulf region eventhough we may only have 10 to 12 storms.


A lot of warm water out there...and if you need hot air, just hang out in here for a while. When did the "Welcome National Pomposity Convention" banners go up? LOL
Quoting RitaEvac:
Radar is way over doing rainfall totals in Houston/Galveston area. I've gotten less than an inch and I'm right near the NWS


It was lightening all night last night at my place but we hardly saw any rain. That cap really prevented the heavy stuff from getting into the Houston Metro area and north. Part of southern Brazoria county did get 4"+ of rain though. Radar is exaggerating with that 6"-7" showing up on there.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The long range forecasts I've seen for Orlando show no highs for the next ten days below the low 80s, and no lows below the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s? It's possible, I suppose; Orlando has dropped into the 30s as late as April 20 (1936), and into the 40s as late as May 15 (1917). But nothing like that appears on the horizon, at least not that I've seen.I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



He might be referring to this.... way out in the extended, it gets to near 50F. Not quite as cool as he was suggesting though:
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
I remember people calling 2010 a bust in late August--just before a dozen-plus storms formed. I imagine there are some here who would call a season a bust if only three Cat 5s formed when they were expecting four of them. ;-)



20 named and 3 CAT 5s with 0 CONUS landfalls is a bust in some folks books...it's like NASCAR in here: we all came to see the skilled drivers make left turns, right? No one came to see a fiery crash, right?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know but is it June 1st? and please just answer the question


It says June,not a specific date.

Link
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
527 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
AN EASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 4
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA...BUT STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW
THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It was lightening all night last night at my place but we hardly saw any rain. That cap really prevented the heavy stuff from getting into the Houston Metro area and north. Part of southern Brazoria county did get 4"+ of rain though. Radar is exaggerating with that 6"-7" showing up on there.


Actually that was bad luck for you, the storms were just lined up and training, no cap. lol
Looks like things are recharging already over Brazoria county
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It says June,not a specific date.

Link

JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION
and yes just saw that then I will requote my self
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know but is it June yet? and please just answer the question
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like things are recharging already over Brazoria county


Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually that was bad luck for you, the storms were just lined up and training, no cap. lol


I meant that as in the cap prevented the heavy stuff from forming yesterday afternoon/evening. Which then prevented us from getting widespread rainfall as anticipated days earlier. There is definitely the opposite of a cap right now. I think we will make up for it today. Luckily that front stalled out just over the city so these storms will be running up through our area all day long today. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some severe weather with a few of these storms.
Looks like a collision zone is under way for Clear Lake area, storms moving NE over Brazoria county, cell near the west end of Galveston moving due north, and one other cell moving NNW. All this is going to merge somewhere over Friendswood, League City, Clear Lake areas.

Quoting StormTracker2K:




They are going to have some flooding problems for sure as the day progresses.
Quoting Floodman:


Good morning sir, how are you?
Very busy. Cant seem to catch up. I will send you a WU mail.
Climate Prediction Center 4/16/12 update has Nino 3.4 the same as last week's one at -0.3C. Also Nino 1-2 continues to warm and now is at +1.9C.

Link
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 917 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 902 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 859 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 854 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a collision zone is under way for Clear Lake area, storms moving NE over Brazoria county, cell near the west end of Galveston moving due north, and one other cell moving NNW. All this is going to merge somewhere over Friendswood, League City, Clear Lake areas.


And the north side of town gets left out to dry.
917 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS VEHICLES
HAVE BEEN STRANDED IN HIGH WATER. DOPPLER RADAR OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORTLAND...ROCKPORT...BAYSIDE...COPANO VILLAGE...GREGORY AND
INGLESIDE. .
929 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 927 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
KLEBERG COUNTY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSVILLE...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY...
New blog has been up
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CFS forecast

E1

E2

E3


Neutal to light el niño