WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on April 12, 2012

Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.


Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.


Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.

First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is going to be one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history. This could rival the outbreaks of April 14-16, 2011 and potentially even April 25-26-28, 2011.


I do think we will see a serious event but probably not on the scale of what we saw with last years outbreaks.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


I do think we will see a serious event but probably not on the scale of what we saw with last years outbreaks.


They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.
I hope the affected local news stations are warning the population in harms way.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.


with what you just said about this being HISTORIC, you still think people should ride out this storm above ground and not in their basements?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.


I know and I agree with you but I just can't imagine that we could do this again this year when what 700 to 800 people died last yuear from tornadoes. Sorry if those numbers are wrong. I wonder if theres a link between these tornado outbreaks which are seemingly becoming more frequent and deadly to Global Warming. There must be a link maybe GW is putting more moisture into jet stream causing these extreme events.
Quoting ncstorm:


with what you just said about this being HISTORIC, you still think people should ride out this storm above ground and not in their basements?

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


I will ask you again after this weekend
Wichita and Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



Dr. Greg Forbes may still be in bed right now some one else may be doing it so when he come in to work he will likey bump them up
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wichita...Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



Remember this! 5/3/1999



Quoting StormTracker2K:


Remember this! 5/3/1999




No, I was two. :P

I've heard a lot about it though. Oklahoma City is a common target after all.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

MOZ066-067-131215-
ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
639 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 635 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALKER...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
NEVADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE APPLETON CITY...HARWOOD...JOHNSON CITY...
MONEGAW SPRINGS...SCHELL CITY...TABERVILLE AND WALKER.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3822 9394 3805 9378 3781 9421 3804 9442
3806 9438 3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421
3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9407 3821 9406
3822 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 235DEG 29KT 3797 9427

$$

LINDENBERG
We may see a couple of 8s or maybe a 9Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2
517. DDR
Good morning all
1.7 inches of rain fell @my location in Trinidad yesterday evening which is the monthly average in just about 8 hours.crazy stuff...
Tomorrow will be the Titanic's 100th anniversary.Today will be the last day that it sailed above the water....
With all the hype for tomorrow no one has mentioned the potential for today... SPC is bumping up tornado chances...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-14 1115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT REMAIN ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 PM CDT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. WITH SUPPORTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

$$

BLAIR
Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>05 6-058-059-14 1115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT REMAIN ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 PM CDT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. WITH SUPPORTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

$$

BLAIR
those poor people..going to have to deal with possible Supercells?
We may actually get some rain here on the eastside of FL today. Clouds are already beginning to build looking west which is odd as I thought our rain would be coming from the east today. I guess maybe the NWS offices in FL aren't seeing this disturbance moving SE across FL.

Only other day 2 high risk:
April 6-8, 2006 tornado outbreak
And on that day, the high risk didnt come till the 1730 outlook.
So this is the earliest issued High risk day...Ever
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be the Titanic's 100th anniversary.Today will be the last day that it sailed above the water....


Tomorrow is it's last day above water. It hit the berg at night and sank on the 15th.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.

I agree. A high risk is dangerous, but asking people to hunker down all day is absurd. People in the high risk area are *very* used to severe storms, so many know what to look out for, and when to hunker down.

To give an analogy... asking people to stay in their basements all day tomorrow is similar to asking everyone to get off the road between 11pm and 3am every friday and saturday night because of the higher risk for drunk drivers.

Very rapid warm up in the Northwestern Caribbean over the last 4 days.  
April 9th:



April 10th:



April 11th:



April 12th:


Wow.

Did they get the fire put out or something?

First day in like a week that the fire isn't the dominant feature on satellite and radar in Florida...
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is
Quoting ncstorm:


I will ask you again after this weekend


You know, people can use some common sense.


Once the outbreak starts everyone should know "hey a tornado could form at any time!"

Watch the local mets and watch the radar on here or NWS site as much as possible so they can see if a really bad cell is headed their way.

The local mets have been very, very good in the past.

Unfortunately, there aren't enough people paying attention to them.

Even in last year's outbreak with all the warnings, we saw people driving cars straight INTO the tornado, and it wasn't the chasers. And then later people are like, "I didn't even know anything was happening!"


Well, I don't know what more the government and news and weather people can do to fix that.


You can have all the models and expert forecasters and media, etc, but if the people aren't going to use it, or at least communicate with one another, it simply won't help them.
532. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is



So you can get stuck in another tornado? or while you are driving get smashed by hail?.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wichita and Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



I didn't want to believe that 110 knot 500mb jet in the frame you posted yesterday from the NAM. Whatever storms do develop will be in an environment to kick quickly into gear and likely move fast. Also want say I really appreciate your efforts and those of other youngsters here to cover severe wx on this blog.
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.



A lot of the basements I've seen on videos after these storms are basically just open pits that the floor joists go across, and maybe they have a post or two down there supporting the house.


What they really need is a concrete or foam panel, something that cannot "rack" and cannot break into thousands of wooden splinters.

At least if a foam panel breaks (very hard to do) it will provide an angled piece of shielding over somebody's head.

If the floor joists in these houses break, you get tons of debris with sharp wooden splinters going everywhere.
One storm is all it takes for a high-end event. I'm still kind of in denial here. How's this for a Severe wx reminder...

"Remember Joplin!"

Some more perspective from the 1 am CDT Day 2 outlook..

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION.
IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


Maybe this will show risk areas a little closer up.
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is

That is actually terrible advice, Taz. A car is extremely dangerous to be in during a tornado. Also, during a high-risk event, while running from one storm, you could run into another. And... if a tornado is moving NE at 60 mph... You would be hard-pressed to truly outrun it. A person's natural reaction when running "from" a storm is to go directly away from it. With tornados, running directly away means it is just going to follow you. With how many major thoroughfares are set up in the midwest (north-south and east-west), running away from a storm gets even more complicated.

Best bet if you see a major tornado coming... get in your basement, and hold on.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.



A lot of the basements I've seen on videos after these storms are basically just open pits that the floor joists go across, and maybe they have a post or two down there supporting the house.


What they really need is a concrete or foam panel, something that cannot "rack" and cannot break into thousands of wooden splinters.

At least if a foam panel breaks (very hard to do) it will provide an angled piece of shielding over somebody's head.

If the floor joists in these houses break, you get tons of debris with sharp wooden splinters going everywhere.

Remember - houses in OK and KS aren't built like houses in the deep south. OK and KS is tornado country. The houses, and ESPECIALLY the basements, are built to a higher standard, and much more storm resistant. Worrying about splinters and such is pointless. In a major tornado, hiding in a basement isn't designed to save you from any possible injury. It is designed to SAVE YOUR LIFE. You *will* have cuts and bruises. You will also be able to see the next sunrise.
Quoting jeffs713:

I agree. A high risk is dangerous, but asking people to hunker down all day is absurd. People in the high risk area are *very* used to severe storms, so many know what to look out for, and when to hunker down.

To give an analogy... asking people to stay in their basements all day tomorrow is similar to asking everyone to get off the road between 11pm and 3am every friday and saturday night because of the higher risk for drunk drivers.
I think the essence of the thought is to not stray too far away from your 'basement'. I would imagine that the storms will not be moving linear faster than 40 mph but the potential of rapid vertical development and intensification could catch people off guard. If I lived in that area I would not be planning on taking any road trips..
Now we have a hatched area for today...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


I agree. Having people in basements all day might cause panic, and generally isn't necessary. Just be prepared, and listen for NWS products/warnings. Don't say you weren't warned.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
One storm is all it takes for a high-end event. I'm still kind of in denial here. How's this for a Severe wx reminder...

"Remember Joplin!"

Some more perspective from the 1 am CDT Day 2 outlook..

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION.
IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


Maybe this will show risk areas a little closer up.

Keep safe up there. It is one thing to be reviewing information about storms, but another thing entirely to be reviewing information about storms you can see out your window.
Potential invest has gotten so far north now.

It'll really have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to turn back south and develop like the models said.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas.


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas.


How soon you see the moderate or high risks does not necessarily correspond to how bad the event will be nor the density of severe weather. It is more related to perceived confidence in the event.

Some of our biggest events in recent history did not have enhanced risks or wording until the day of the event. Some of our biggest bust events have had enhanced wording out far before the event. I wouldn't put meaning into how soon an area is highlighted as an indicator of severity. Many of ingredients for severe weather and even strong tornadoes are not known or observable until just before they occur.
Quoting jeffs713:

That is actually terrible advice, Taz. A car is extremely dangerous to be in during a tornado. Also, during a high-risk event, while running from one storm, you could run into another. And... if a tornado is moving NE at 60 mph... You would be hard-pressed to truly outrun it. A person's natural reaction when running "from" a storm is to go directly away from it. With tornados, running directly away means it is just going to follow you. With how many major thoroughfares are set up in the midwest (north-south and east-west), running away from a storm gets even more complicated.

Best bet if you see a major tornado coming... get in your basement, and hold on.

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way
Quoting JNCali:
I think the essence of the thought is to not stray too far away from your 'basement'. I would imagine that the storms will not be moving linear faster than 40 mph but the potential of rapid vertical development and intensification could catch people off guard. If I lived in that area I would not be planning on taking any road trips..

With a 110-knot jet above the storms.. I wouldn't be surprised to see storm motion in excess of 50kt today.
Quoting jeffs713:

Remember - houses in OK and KS aren't built like houses in the deep south. OK and KS is tornado country. The houses, and ESPECIALLY the basements, are built to a higher standard, and much more storm resistant. Worrying about splinters and such is pointless. In a major tornado, hiding in a basement isn't designed to save you from any possible injury. It is designed to SAVE YOUR LIFE. You *will* have cuts and bruises. You will also be able to see the next sunrise.


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.
Quoting weatherh98:

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way

Even that is dangerous, as a storm can easily turn, speed up, or another storm could get you.

Best advice - don't be on the road if you don't need to be.
basement are death traps is not a safe place too be in a nado


here is why




and here the news story on it


NEAR POCAHONTAS, Iowa (KTIV) -- It was a fight for survival in what one family thought was the safest place they could be.

"If I hadn't seen those funnels, I probably wouldn't have went until the glass started breaking," says farmer, Jim Murray.

It was enough fear that got Jim Murray into his storm cellar, now a little difficult to recognize, with his wife.

"She'd been through it before so she was actually in that room 45 minutes before I got in there. She was already nervous," says Murray.

Nervous for what was about to happen.

"We had an 8-inch slab of cement on top of the storm cellar and that went. The door blew out, and we were hanging on for dear life after that," says Murray.

A terrifying moment that had Murray wondering whether they'd survive.

"I thought we were going to get sucked right out of there," says Murray.

And there's another aspect of the story that seems to be a bit surreal.

The pick-up truck, which was in the garage before the tornado struck, ended up in the basement afterwards, landing on their pool table.

"If we would have been under the pool table, we would have been squashed," says Murray.

And as for the rest of the property, there isn't a lot to show for it.

"It's pretty much a total loss. I mean, there's not much left to salvage at all, no trees, no nothing," says Murray.

And although Murray walked away safely from this experience, he's offering himself some new advise about not hesitating to get underground.

"Get your butt down in there. So, that's what I'm going to do next time," says Murray.




now this kind is a safe place to be

Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is true.

They've been finding that ordinary basements do not protect people very well against the top half of EF4 and above.

Saw some of that last year, and it was sad, because people did what they were "supposed to" and got killed or maimed (amputees) anyway.


Just because people still die in basements during the strongest of tornadoes does not mean that basements are not the statistically-safest places to be during such events. We do not have large datasets of people driving away vs. staying basements during the same tornadic conditions by which to accurately compare mortality/injury statistics. Even so, the evidence we do have strongly suggests that being stuck in traffic in a vehicle is orders of magnitude more dangerous than being below ground during a tornado.
Quoting jeffs713:

Even that is dangerous, as a storm can easily turn, speed up, or another storm could get you.

Best advice - don't be on the road if you don't need to be.


Oh i complpletely agree! Hunker down baby! but, I think that is what Taz meant
Basement? who needs a basement!
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is a tip if there a EF5 comeing right at your house and you no this for about a few hrs now here the thing dont ride it out in your house or bassmnet get in your car and drive a way if its day light that is
when you discover the secret for knowing an EF5 is coming at your house hours in advance, do let us and the world know!!

in the meantime, better advice for when you know an EF5 is coming at your house, which is maybe 15-20min at best, your basement is #1 if an actual storm shelter is not a quick jog away. if you get in a car in that time frame, your chances of injury skyrocket!!
Quoting weatherh98:

I think he means that if you know ones coming and it's an EF 5 run as fast as you can out of the way

At best, we can tell if a tornado will be strong vs. weak from storm spotters and radar, but there is not way to know for certain that a tornado will be an EF4/5 until it is rated.
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.

If those same people who were in the basement were instead on their main floor, do you think they would have lived instead?

Even with the slow movement of the Jarrel tornado, it was at least 1/2 mile wide at that time and had strengthened rapidly before hitting the subdivision. I highly doubt there was any way know the tornado was that serious, know if was moving that slowly and would continue at that speed, and then with enough time remaining survive the near-tornado environment on foot.
Quoting jeffs713:

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.


That was excellent and the completely right thing, its a decision that people must make.
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just it man.

Last year, a significant number of the people who DIED were in the basement.


It was so much so, that even the Weather Channel was questioning whether the basement was the right thing to do in an EF4 or EF5.


Obviously, it's a heck of a lot better than being on the surface, but even in the 1990's in the Jarrel tornado(F5,) people died in their basements who could have out-run the storm on FOOT.
The problem is.. which way do you run?? You don't know where the funnel is gonna go?!
Quoting JNCali:
The problem is.. which way do you run?? You don't know where the funnel is gonna go?!


The oppodite side of the horizon is my guess.
Quoting jeffs713:

It is making the judgement call to run that is the problem. For people like us here on the blog, who have an above-average knowledge of weather, we will make the right decision more often than not regarding what to do in a storm.

For the average person, who does not have an intimate knowledge of weather... they are much more likely to make the wrong decision (driving away from a 60mph tornado, for example). It is a matter of "keep it simple, stupid". Don't make people over think it, especially when their lives are at stake. In an EF5 able to tear asphalt apart... There isn't much short of a concrete bunker that will save you. You are likely to be safer in a basement than you are out driving. Yes, people can die in a basement... but they are more likely to die in their car than they are in the basement.



I dont have a basement, so if my house gets wiped clean, im gone too.
Taz,

Basing your stance upon a rather rare set of events (F5 tornado, cars landing in the basement, etc.) is foolhardy at best. Also, no mention was given to what was in the ceiling of the basement in the case you quoted. They mention 8-inch slab... but I don't see any evidence of that in the damage (it looks like they had wood on top of brick, as there is no rebar sticking out of the brick walls, and no concrete debris).

I normally don't say this, especially to someone whom I respect such as yourself... but you are wrong on this, bro.
what evere am done with this
Quoting jeffs713:
Taz,

Basing your stance upon a rather rare set of events (F5 tornado, cars landing in the basement, etc.) is foolhardy at best. Also, no mention was given to what was in the ceiling of the basement in the case you quoted. They mention 8-inch slab... but I don't see any evidence of that in the damage (it looks like they had wood on top of brick, as there is no rebar sticking out of the brick walls, and no concrete debris).

I normally don't say this, especially to someone whom I respect such as yourself... but you are wrong on this, bro.


flatter then tell em they are wrong:)
Quoting Tazmanian:
what evere am done with this


okay see ya taz... Hey on the bright side,48 days and hurricane season we go
Quoting Tazmanian:
what evere am done with this
that shelter you showed was clearly the best option.. if one has a Lot of lead time, they can drive away from an area if they know where other storms are..
but making the best decision in short time involves limited options for many.
your original point has merit! basements are not equal to the safety of true storm shelters.
Wow I just saw they issued a High Risk for tomorrow! Going to be one hell of an outbreak. Everyone stay safe out in the plains tomorrow.
cmc


ecmwf


gfs



MAYBE!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow I just saw they issued a High Risk for tomorrow! Going to be one hell of an outbreak. Everyone stay safe out in the plains tomorrow.


crazy stuff huh.?
NOAAs National Weather Service to discuss central
U.S. severe weather threat



Severe weather is expected in the central U.S. through this coming weekend, and tornadoes and large hail could be especially threatening on Saturday. This severe weather is expected in a region where the National Weather Service has already equipped many of its Doppler radars with Dual Polarization technology, which can better detect when and where tornadoes are on the ground. Parts of this region are also testing stronger call-to-action wording in tornado warnings to further help protect lives and create a more weather-ready nation.

NOAA Press Conference Info

Says 1p.m. Central time.


I hope this gets televised at least by TWC and some of the News networks.

It doesn't say who in the News, if anybody, is going to be covering this conference.
Quoting weatherh98:


flatter then tell em they are wrong:)

I did that so Taz knows it isn't personal.

Quoting weatherh98:


crazy stuff huh.?
I just saw the text forecast from the SPC and it has been a while sense I last saw that strong of wording. This will most likely be the main event of the entire tornado season. Also Sunday seems like it may turn out to be a nasty outbreak.
571. MahFL
The new tornado warnings now even say "This storm is not survivable", so I am not sure what you do in that situation, maybe get drunk real quick ?
Also many who died in Joplin were in restaurants and never even heard the sirens. By the time they realized a big tornado was coming it was too late for some.
Quoting Minnemike:
that shelter you showed was clearly the best option.. if one has a Lot of lead time, they can drive away from an area if they know where other storms are..
but making the best decision in short time involves limited options for many.
your original point has merit! basements are not equal to the safety of true storm shelters.

That is what I was trying to get at, too... I just didn't want people to feel that a basement was not a good option. It is a good option. The best option is a true storm shelter, but that isn't available to most people.

If faced with basement vs. driving, I'm going to choose basement almost every single time.

That said, I'm in the same situation as GeorgiaStormz... I don't have a basement, so my happy rear end will be hiding under the stairs in the middle of my house.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
One storm is all it takes for a high-end event. I'm still kind of in denial here. How's this for a Severe wx reminder...

"Remember Joplin!"

Some more perspective from the 1 am CDT Day 2 outlook..

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION.
IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


Maybe this will show risk areas a little closer up.



I cannot remember if I have ever seen 60% like that on that map. That is astonishing. People there need to be alert
Hey, bloggers.
People have survived driving away from violent tornadoes. Doing it in a city a rush hour, not gonna work. It's not the best alternative, but it can work if you have no underground shelter and you understand the storm motion. Underground or one of those vault-like, poured all in one cast concrete above ground shelters are the only places you can consider "safe" in a violent tornado. Reality is, not many have true storm shelters, especially those in lower income groups.

People survived Joplin by getting into crawl spaces under buildings.

Now is the time to make a contingency plan, and know what you will do, not ten minutes before a violent (EF4 or 5) tornado is coming at you.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



I dont have a basement, so if my house gets wiped clean, im gone too.

Nope your not wiped out find a ditch to lay in. I live in a modular home no basement. Gots a 4 foot ditch behind the house to hide in.
Quoting jeffs713:

That is what I was trying to get at, too... I just didn't want people to feel that a basement was not a good option. It is a good option. The best option is a true storm shelter, but that isn't available to most people.

If faced with basement vs. driving, I'm going to choose basement almost every single time.

That said, I'm in the same situation as GeorgiaStormz... I don't have a basement, so my happy rear end will be hiding under the stairs in the middle of my house.


a small interior room.......
I always hope that a the tornado isnt a stone slab leaving tornado.

But my house is a sturdy 2-story so an ef3 would probably leave the bottom floor alone.

I dont have a special storm shelter in my community of 400 homes, and i dont think they would appreciate me digging one. :)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hey, bloggers.
People have survived driving away from violent tornadoes. Doing it in a city a rush hour, not gonna work. It's not the best alternative, but it can work if you have no underground shelter and you understand the storm motion. Underground or one of those vault-like, poured all in one cast concrete above ground shelters are the only places you can consider "safe" in a violent tornado. Reality is, not many have true storm shelters, especially those in lower income groups.

People survived Joplin by getting into crawl spaces under buildings.

Now is the time to make a contingency plan, and know what you will do, not ten minutes before a violent (EF4 or 5) tornado is coming at you.


thank you
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hey, bloggers.
People have survived driving away from violent tornadoes. Doing it in a city a rush hour, not gonna work. It's not the best alternative, but it can work if you have no underground shelter and you understand the storm motion. Underground or one of those vault-like, poured all in one cast concrete above ground shelters are the only places you can consider "safe" in a violent tornado. Reality is, not many have true storm shelters, especially those in lower income groups.

People survived Joplin by getting into crawl spaces under buildings.

Now is the time to make a contingency plan, and know what you will do, not ten minutes before a violent (EF4 or 5) tornado is coming at you.
That is why EF4/EF5 tornadoes are so terrifying. There is really nothing you can do to fully protect yourself other than have a full fledged storm shelter. Sadly tomorrow will have fast moving supercells so it will be difficult to outrun them. Also the fast moving storms give a little less warning time for people to react/take cover.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just saw the text forecast from the SPC and it has been a while sense I last saw that strong of wording. This will most likely be the main event of the entire tornado season. Also Sunday seems like it may turn out to be a nasty outbreak.


Max Tor:Con for Saturday is a 7 at the moment, and that's about 30hours out from the forecast period. Pretty high number for 30 hours out.

4 for Missourri over night tomorrow night.
5,6,7 for parts of Nebraska, Oklahoma(6), Kansas, and Texas.


Max Tor: Con for Sunday is a 6 in Iowa and Minnesota!, so 48 hours out and giving it a 6 already is a big deal.



So it's looking pretty bad, could rival last year's events depending on how things come together.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...


well, they shouldnt be listening to OUR warnings..they should be listening to their local NWS and local media. If you live in a two story house and you trying to make it downstairs to your basement with only a 15 minute warning with children in the bed, you most likely wont make it..I can remember the people in tuscaloosa saying they didnt have a warning? So waiting on a warning that might not ever materialize would be a huge price to pay because just because of someone looking ridiculous in sitting in a basement waiting on a storm. Dont you sit in your house and wait on a hurricane to pass through all day and all night?
Didnt Dr. Masters post a video with a disclaimor saying not to get in your car and flee from a tornado?
Quoting jeffs713:

Keep safe up there. It is one thing to be reviewing information about storms, but another thing entirely to be reviewing information about storms you can see out your window.
Thanks. Well, that's so true. I am near Norman, a hair S of the high risk area.
Quoting ncstorm:


well, they shouldnt be listening to OUR warnings..they should be listening to their local NWS and local media. If you live in a two story house and you trying to make it downstairs to your basement with only a 15 minute warning with children in the bed, you most likely wont make it..I can remember the people in tuscaloosa saying they didnt have a warning? So waiting on a warning that might not ever materialize would be a huge price to pay because just because of someone looking ridiculous in sitting in a basement waiting on a storm. Dont you sit in your house and wait on a hurricane to pass through all day and all night?


ScottLincoln is a NWS meteorologist. I'm pretty sure when he said "our" he was referring to the NWS, not this blog - WHICH DOES NOT ISSUE OFFICIAL WARNINGS (and should never pretend to).

WTO
The only time you could try to drive away from a tornado would be if you are already in a car and judge that you can safely drive away without becoming a hazard on the road (basically if you need to go 100 mph to out run the tornado just pull over and get in a ditch)

If you are at home and have a basement it is always the best option. The next best option is to move to a small interior room like a closet or bathroom. If you can see a tornado from in your house and try to drive away you run the risks of:
* Your car not starting and you being trapped in your garage
* Your car not getting away in time and getting picked up and tossed around by the tornado
* Getting hit and injured/killed by flying debris

Bottom Line: Don't try to out run a tornado- Your house is much bigger and much safer
Quoting MahFL:
The new tornado warnings now even say "This storm is not survivable", so I am not sure what you do in that situation, maybe get drunk real quick ?
Also many who died in Joplin were in restaurants and never even heard the sirens. By the time they realized a big tornado was coming it was too late for some.


It means you cannot survive it above ground in the majority of buildings.

You MUST either find a basement or just run for your life and hope you guess the right direction.


there is nothing you can do vs the types of storms you saw in Mississippi/Alabama border last year, except get out of the way.

A normal basement isn't going to protect you against a storm that can uproot asphault or grass in a field, and then scour the ground 12 to 18 inches deep.
NOAA has a conference afternooon concerning tomorrow?

Has that ever happened before?
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


ScottLincoln is a NWS meteorologist. I'm pretty sure when he said "our" he was referring to the NWS, not this blog - WHICH DOES NOT ISSUE OFFICIAL WARNINGS (and should never pretend to).

WTO


do you know how many people come on this blog claiming to be someone or something..Im sorry if I dont see you on my local weather station or your picture listed at the NWS with your name attached to it, I dont trust anyone saying who they are on this blog..nothing against ScottLincoln but I will stick to my local NWS and Local weather..no one should be taking advice from anyone on this blog about life and death issues with the weather
Quoting ncstorm:


well, they shouldnt be listening to OUR warnings..they should be listening to their local NWS and local media. If you live in a two story house and you trying to make it downstairs to your basement with only a 15 minute warning with children in the bed, you most likely wont make it..I can remember the people in tuscaloosa saying they didnt have a warning? So waiting on a warning that might not ever materialize would be a huge price to pay because just because of someone looking ridiculous in sitting in a basement waiting on a storm. Dont you sit in your house and wait on a hurricane to pass through all day and all night?

Actually, before a hurricane arrives, I am working on getting my home prepared for the storm. And if I'm fully prepared, I'm helping the neighbors.

Once the storm arrives, yes, I'm in my house, because its the safest place. (just like you wouldn't go outside in the hail core of a tornadic thunderstorm)
Quoting ncstorm:


do you know how many people come on this blog claiming to be someone or something..Im sorry if I dont see you on my local weather station or your picture listed at the NWS with your name attached to it, I dont trust anyone saying who they are on this blog..nothing against ScottLincoln but I will stick to my local NWS and Local weather..no one should be taking advice from anyone on this blog about life and death issues with the weather

Your choice, but ScottLincoln has been pretty well vetted here.

There is insight here that you can't get elsewhere, but I do partially agree with you. When it comes to life or death situations - the NWS is your best bet. (I don't have much respect for local mets outside of the NWS, since they hype things up a LOT more than they need to be, at least the talking heads on TV do)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NOAA has a conference afternooon concerning tomorrow?

Has that ever happened before?

I think so, but I also know that the NWS is trying out different methods of getting the word out. So I wouldn't use the conference as a sign that the event will be more severe than others. It isn't a precedent-setting event... just an experiment in communication.
And I need to chill with my posting today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NOAA has a conference afternooon concerning tomorrow?

Has that ever happened before?


You serious!? Who knows I'll google it
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks. Well, that's so true. I am near Norman, a hair S of the high risk area.
Just got one more thing to say. How many of you have ever been under a high risk, PDS tornado watch? Tomorrow will be my third in not quite two years. The other two panned out.

This is the most heads up ever given by SPC for potential high-end severe.

Please be careful what you say on this blog today and tomorrow. People are under the gun just as some of you might be were a major 'cane bearing down on your home. Quit arguing and watch the weather.

Best wishes to all Okies and our neighbors up in Kansas who are in this high risk with us.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I got other things to do right now.
Quoting MahFL:
The new tornado warnings now even say "This storm is not survivable", so I am not sure what you do in that situation, maybe get drunk real quick ?
Also many who died in Joplin were in restaurants and never even heard the sirens. By the time they realized a big tornado was coming it was too late for some.


One of the new warning templates says that the storm would be unsurvivable outdoors and not in substantial shelter. It is not meant as a blanket "anything you do, no matter what, you will die."

Tornado sirens are not meant to be heard inside of restaurants, or any building, for that matter.
Quoting ncstorm:


do you know how many people come on this blog claiming to be someone or something..Im sorry if I dont see you on my local weather station or your picture listed at the NWS with your name attached to it, I dont trust anyone saying who they are on this blog..nothing against ScottLincoln but I will stick to my local NWS and Local weather..no one should be taking advice from anyone on this blog about life and death issues with the weather



Scott Lincoln:

Career Summary
Hydrologist, Cartographer
NOAA/NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell, LA

Education Summary
M.S., Environmental Science, Iowa State University, 2007 – 2009
B.S., Environmental Science, Iowa State University, 2003 – 2007
Concentrations: Hydrology, GIS, Modeling, Meteorology

Summary of Research Experience
Operational Modeling of Small-scale Watersheds
NEXRAD Precipitation Estimate Analysis
Regional Climatic Changes Due to Agricultural Land-Use Change in Iowa

Summary of Research Skills
Use of HEC-HMS hydrological model
Use of ESRI GIS products
Experimentation with a regional climate model
Knowledge of Python, Matlab, Java, C++, Fortran

Awards and Honors
NOAA/NWS Local Award Recipient (2010)
NOAA/NWS Local Award Recipient (2011)
NOAA/NWS Southern Region Director's Award Recipient (2011)

*Full Curriculum Vitae available by request


and you can google him.
He is not a fake.

Quoting ncstorm:


do you know how many people come on this blog claiming to be someone or something..Im sorry if I dont see you on my local weather station or your picture listed at the NWS with your name attached to it, I dont trust anyone saying who they are on this blog..nothing against ScottLincoln but I will stick to my local NWS and Local weather..no one should be taking advice from anyone on this blog about life and death issues with the weather
Generally speaking, I'd trust something Scott Lincoln told me way before I'd trust something told me by, say, the local TV station's weather reader. Just saying...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NOAA has a conference afternooon concerning tomorrow?

Has that ever happened before?


Yes, our local NWS WFO (CHS) will host a conference call whenever there is the possibility for a widespread severe weather event, winter weather, or tropical event. All the local TV mets, emergency managers, and HAM operators within the CHS CWA (County Warning Area) are invited to attend. It is very informative and keeps the local media and NWS on the same page. We (TV mets) have a great relationship with our local NWS. They actually hold seminars a few times a year to keep us updated with the latest upgrades and models that are currently in use. Now this doesn't happen with every WFO, but I'm glad we have have it here in Charleston.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


One of the new warning templates says that the storm would be unsurvivable outdoors and not in substantial shelter. It is not meant as a blanket "anything you do, no matter what, you will die."

Tornado sirens are not meant to be heard inside of restaurants, or any building, for that matter.
nope they are meant to alert those active outdoors and in areas away from access to local tv and radio its a warning to seek additional infomation and take action to protect life forget the property that can be fixed a life cannot

another good one would be

those in direct path of this storm faces certain death and destruction
Quoting Chucktown:


Yes, our local NWS WFO (CHS) will host a conference call whenever there is the possibility for a widespread severe weather event, winter weather, or tropical event. All the local TV mets, emergency managers, and HAM operators within the CHS CWA (County Warning Area) are invited to attend. It is very informative and keeps the local media and NWS on the same page. We (TV mets) have a great relationship with our local NWS. They actually hold seminars a few times a year to keep us updated with the latest upgrades and models that are currently in use. Now this doesn't happen with every WFO, but I'm glad we have have it here in Charleston.

I had no idea you were a TV Met, especially with how contrary and argumentative I've seen you here on the blog.

Learn something new every day.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nope they are meant to alert those active outdoors and in areas away from access to local tv and radio its a warning to seek additional infomation and take action to protect life forget the property that can be fixed a life cannot

another good one would be

those in direct path of this storm faces certain death and destruction


and when they live through it, or the tornado weakens and lifts, we have another hype problem.
This is a good idea, but they have to be very careful when and how they use the wording.
You don't want them to end up sounding like TWC where every hook echo adn debris ball is "WOWWWWW, ALL OF YOU ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!"
No hype.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Please be careful what you say on this blog today and tomorrow. People are under the gun just as some of you might be were a major 'cane bearing down on your home. Quit arguing and watch the weather.


Also a good time to preemptively discuss what tends to happen on big days like tomorrow might be. We should try our very best to keep our posts short and sweet, but also not post too many of the same repetitive things so that we can't keep up with one another.
-We should refrain from posting new warnings copied verbatim. People can get that information easily if they want.
-We should refrain from off-topic stuff like we usually try and do during tropical weather. Maybe just treat it like the rules during a land-falling storm. We can argue at each other once it winds down ;)
On HRRR for today i see two rounds of storms for OK today, about 4 hours apart.

The 2nd looks stronger.

21 utc and 1 utc, so not for another 8-12 hours,
Should start around 6/7 central tonight
I wasn't intending to argue. :(

But anyway, Scott is right. keep it short, keep it simple, and stay on topic.

We can argue during hurricane season, like usual.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Also a good time to preemptively discuss what tends to happen on big days like tomorrow might be. We should try our very best to keep our posts short and sweet, but also not post too many of the same repetitive things so that we can't keep up with one another.
-We should refrain from posting new warnings copied verbatim. People can get that information easily if they want.
-We should refrain from off-topic stuff like we usually do during tropical weather. We can argue at each other once it winds down ;)


Oh boy, a Saturday.
EEEVVERYONE will be here.
I think we should post warnings on very strong and dangerous storms.
On days like tomorrow, it really helps when someone points out a storm you were missing because you were looking at another supercell far away.
For example, i didnt even notice the west liberty cell on march 2 because i was looking at the line of storms instead of ahead of it.

For someone on the blog, they could see they are in the path of the storm, or someone they know is,
but you are right in that we do not need to post every little warning.
^^^ This is why I love the NWS and want to work with them one day. They're always level-headed and correct! lol

Seriously, I'd love to see one day on WU without arguing.

Tomorrow looks to be some kinda severe weather event that I wouldn't want to be in. Keep safe all.
607. 900MB
Awfully toasty water temps up here off NYC/Montauk, 3 degrees c above avg!
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


ScottLincoln is a NWS meteorologist. I'm pretty sure when he said "our" he was referring to the NWS, not this blog - WHICH DOES NOT ISSUE OFFICIAL WARNINGS (and should never pretend to).

WTO


Technically I'm an environmental scientist/hydrologist/cartographer. Officially educated and work in similar things, but not officially a met. Just a minor in meteorology, although have been through the NWS radar/warning training courses and have given seminars on radar/severe weather.

Quoting ncstorm:


do you know how many people come on this blog claiming to be someone or something..Im sorry if I dont see you on my local weather station or your picture listed at the NWS with your name attached to it, I dont trust anyone saying who they are on this blog..nothing against ScottLincoln but I will stick to my local NWS and Local weather..no one should be taking advice from anyone on this blog about life and death issues with the weather


As a public employee, it would not be hard to verify my existence. Heck, I think they are even required by law to tell you how much I make a year. Point is, you can verify that I am who I say I am pretty easily.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Oh boy, a Saturday.
EEEVVERYONE will be here.
I think we should post warnings on very strong and dangerous storms.
On days like tomorrow, it really helps when someone points out a storm you were missing because you were looking at another supercell far away.
For example, i didnt even notice the west liberty cell on march 2 because i was looking at the line of storms instead of ahead of it.

For someone on the blog, they could see they are in the path of the storm, or someone they know is,
but you are right in that we do not need to post every little warning.


Talking about a storm that we are missing, or pointing it out... well that's different than posting an entire warning text verbatim. Most probably skip over the warning text. If needbe, maybe the particularly important or interesting part of the warning text could be posted.

But if we try and refrain from doing so, we wont end up with 3 or 4 of the same warning on the blog that we are not going to read anyway that just blocks us from reading the posts we are trying to get to.
Quoting jeffs713:

I had no idea you were a TV Met, especially with how contrary and argumentative I've seen you here on the blog.

Learn something new every day.


Contrary and argumentative? Why, because I'm not with the majority of the blog when it comes to AGW or go along with the "gloom and doom" mantra whenever there is "weather". I just call them as I see them.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Scott Lincoln:

Career Summary
Hydrologist, Cartographer
NOAA/NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell, LA

Education Summary
M.S., Environmental Science, Iowa State University, 2007 – 2009
B.S., Environmental Science, Iowa State University, 2003 – 2007
Concentrations: Hydrology, GIS, Modeling, Meteorology

Summary of Research Experience
Operational Modeling of Small-scale Watersheds
NEXRAD Precipitation Estimate Analysis
Regional Climatic Changes Due to Agricultural Land-Use Change in Iowa

Summary of Research Skills
Use of HEC-HMS hydrological model
Use of ESRI GIS products
Experimentation with a regional climate model
Knowledge of Python, Matlab, Java, C++, Fortran

Awards and Honors
NOAA/NWS Local Award Recipient (2010)
NOAA/NWS Local Award Recipient (2011)
NOAA/NWS Southern Region Director's Award Recipient (2011)

*Full Curriculum Vitae available by request


and you can google him.
He is not a fake.



listen I hear you guys and again I have nothing against ScottLincoln but I could up make up a handle and say I am Greg Forbes. If he is the real thing, then great for him but I will stick to my local NWS and local weather meterologists for life threatening issues concerning weather. I am not starting an argument so lets keep today and tomorrow drama free:)
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If needbe, maybe the particularly important or interesting part of the warning text could be posted.


I agree, which is why I only post the wording of hail/wind size or what is said about a tornado. The average person isn't (or shouldn't be) looking at this blog for their severe weather info.
I don't think I ever thought I'd have a blog comment battle over whether or not I existed or whether or not I was the real person behind the handle. Heck, i didn't even think that I was famous enough to be someone "covetable" in a fake blog name way. It's epic.
Quoting ncstorm:


listen I hear you guys and again I have nothing against ScottLincoln but I could up make up a handle and say I am Greg Forbes. If he is the real thing, then great for him but I will stick to my local NWS and local weather meterologists for life threatening issues concerning weather. I am not starting an argument so lets keep today and tomorrow drama free:)


If you really think this W. Scott Lincoln fellow at the NWS is famous-enough for random people on the internet to try and copy with fake blog usernames (usernames that were created over 6 years ago, before said NWS employee was even done with college, let alone a famous NWS employee), you could always email him at his work address and see if he responds to you with:
A) what!? someone is copying my identity on some unpopular weather website called Weather Underground? or
B) Yes, I've had the handle "ScottLincoln" since my early years of weather-interest when I first had a home weather station and before I even finished my B.S., let alone became an NWS employee.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If you really think this W. Scott Lincoln fellow at the NWS is famous-enough for random people on the internet to try and copy with fake blog usernames (usernames that were created over 6 years ago, before said NWS employee was even done with college, let alone a famous NWS employee), you could always email him at his work address and see if he responds to you with:
A) what!? someone is copying my identity on some unpopular weather website called Weather Underground? or
B) Yes, I've had the handle "ScottLincoln" since my early years of weather-interest when I first had a home weather station and before I even finished my B.S., let alone became an NWS employee.


Scott,

Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work!
Morning all.

Hard to believe this cloud formation



just gave us [Nassau] about 25 minutes of hard rain...

619. etxwx
Not to distract from the ongoing severe weather discussion, but Irene has been retired.
Link

Long time lurker...first post. Appreciate all the info I've gather on this site. Thanks.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Just think of how much people would listen to our warnings next event if this event we told them to stay in their basements all day...



How soon you see the moderate or high risks does not necessarily correspond to how bad the event will be nor the density of severe weather. It is more related to perceived confidence in the event.

Some of our biggest events in recent history did not have enhanced risks or wording until the day of the event. Some of our biggest bust events have had enhanced wording out far before the event. I wouldn't put meaning into how soon an area is highlighted as an indicator of severity. Many of ingredients for severe weather and even strong tornadoes are not known or observable until just before they occur.



Very true, a large majority of the severe weather I've had living here in Central Florida didn't have any severe risk wording, including 2 tornadoes I've seen. During the wet season any given day can spark severe weather. This is because most of the severe weather and thunderstorms/rainfall is triggered by meso-scale/surface events, which models really struggle forecasting and anticipating properly.
Jon Haverfield
‏ @JonDopplerFAST8
Follow
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx