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Damages from June 13 hailstorm in Dallas may be $2 billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012

Insured damage from a massive 3-hour hailstorm that pummeled Dallas, Texas on Wednesday, June 13, may reach $2 billion, said the Southwestern Insurance Information Service (SIIS) on Friday. If true, this would be the fourth billion-dollar U.S. weather disaster of 2012. A cluster of three severe thunderstorms dropped hail the size of baseballs over a heavily populated area, damaging thousands of cars, puncturing skylights at a local mall, and shattering the expensive tile roofs of hundreds of homes. It was the second major hailstorm to hit the region this year; an April 3 event cost close to $500 million, and damaged 110 airplanes at the DFW airport. You can see a radar image of the June 13 storm using our wundermap with the "go back in time" feature turned on.


Figure 1. Huge hail splashes into the waters of White Rock Lake in Dallas on June 13, 2012. Image credit: Wunderphotographer CinnamonDreams.

One of the most expensive hailstorms of all-time
The June 13 hailstorm will rank as one of the most expensive of all-time, according to statistics of billion-dollar disasters maintained by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and a list of damaging hail events maintained at Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists only three hailstorms in U.S. history with damages exceeding $1 billion:

1) The April 10, 2001 St. Louis, Missouri hailstorm. This costliest hailstorm in U.S. history, costing $2+ billion, struck the I-70 corridor of eastern Kansas, across Missouri, into southwestern Illinois.

2) The May 5, 1995 Mayfest Storm in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Severe thunderstorms produced hail the size of softballs, causing $1.1 billion in insured losses, and total damage of $2 billion.

3) The July 11, 1990 hailstorm in Colorado. Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing $625 million in total damage ($1.1 billion in damage adjusted to 2011 dollars.)


Video 1. News coverage of the June 13, 2012 hailstorm in Dallas, Texas, from local TV station News8. The aerial shots of a fog-shrouded golf course covered with ice are quite remarkable.

Six global billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2012
There have been five global billion-dollar weather disasters as of the end of May, said Aon Benfield in their latest May Catastrophe Recap. Three of these were in the U.S. With the addition of the June 13 Dallas hailstorm, the global total would rise to six and the U.S. total to four. The most expensive weather-related disaster of 2012 has been the March 2 - 3 tornado and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast U.S., which killed 41 people and caused $3 billion in damage. The second most expensive was the severe thunderstorms and heavy rains that hit China during late April and early May, bringing flooding, landslides, and damaging hail to the Gansu, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. Over 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, with $2.68 billion in damage. Two other severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. topped the $1 billion mark in damages in 2012: the April 27 - 29 event in the Midwest ($1.5 billion in damage), and an April 2 - 4 severe weather outbreak in Texas that did a tremendous amount of hail damage near Dallas/Ft. Worth ($1 billion.) A fourth severe weather event, April 13 - 15 in the Plains and Midwest, is very close the $1 billion mark ($950 million in damage.) Another weather disasters that might approach the $1 billion mark is the frosts and freezes that decimated Midwest fruit trees after 2012's "summer in March" heat wave. Agricultural damage in Michigan alone has been estimated by the state to be $223.5 million--including $130 million to cherry and apple orchards. The pace and cost of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012 is well below that of 2011, which had had fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters between January and May (nine in the U.S.) These 2011 disasters cost $73 billion, compared to the $10 billion price tag of 2012's five-billion dollar disasters from January - May.



Super Typhoon Guchol headed towards Tokyo
Super Typhoon Guchol , a powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is churning through the Western Pacific towards Japan, and is expected to pass close to Tokyo late Tuesday night local time. As Guchol approaches Japan on Monday and Tuesday morning, ocean temperatures will cool below 26°C and wind shear will increase, which should cause significant weakening of the typhoon. By the time of closest approach to Tokyo, I expect Guchol will most likely be a tropical storm, but could be a Category 1 typhoon.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

I'll have a new post late Monday or early Tuesday. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post on record hailstorms.

Jeff Masters
Bigger in Texas
Bigger in Texas
Dallas, TX thunderstorm dropped a few big ones today.

Extreme Weather Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

12Z GFS has 1008 milibar low WSW of Tampa by Thursday night and is attached by a monsoon trough over C FL.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why? It has several days to do something, see the below image.


No its speeding NE into cooler waters. However when I checked the models its suppose to slow down quite a bit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look how far north the monsoon trough is in Africa.



Supress that SAL
On the morning run of the GFS it showed 1009 millibar low off of the coast of Africa at the end of the run.Needs to be more consistent though.
Quoting weatherh98:


Look at 95ls vorticity


Yea I saw that. Pretty interesting..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That for sure will be bumped to 60% at 2 PM.
I find it rather odd that we've had so many of these hybrid/shallow warm core systems recently. Remember how many we had that last year that formed from fronts as well.
This is gonna get us banned

i see two tropical waves on this map!!
2 count em 1, 2, closed lows in the gulf with fairly low pressures in 96 hours
12Z GFS now developes a TD west of FL on Friday. Jedkins you see this.

1015. LargoFl
.......................this picture was taken by NASA on the planet Mecury...Mickey Mouse was here..LOLOLOL...pretty neat pic huh......
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Should start getting some robust waves soon with Ern & Cntrl Atlantic development possibilities.
As of the latest Ocean Prediction Center's update, Invest 95L's pressure has dropped 1 millibar to 1004 millibars and the winds remain at 40 knots, 45 mph. The system is moving towards the Northeast at 10 mph.
Look at the RGB in motion at NHC, and the two Buoy reports in the SW Caribbean and it really does look as if something is spinning up off the Coast on northern Honduras.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS now developes a TD west of FL on Friday. Jedkins you see this.



That's not a TD on that map. One loosely closed isobar does not indicate a tropical cyclone.
The BOC low appears to lose to the florida low.. slightly elongated though
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is gonna get us banned

Why?
Show the watl of the gfs to see the entire atlantic
June 18th Anomaly Map

1025. ncstorm
Updated map..1500 UTC
WOW. Look at this and it is only out 108hrs. 3" to 5" of rain across most of FL between Wednesday & Friday.



Yep, looks like what appears to be Subtropical Storm Chris developing north-northeast of Bermuda. Should expect classification in the next 5 hours if the organization persists.
Quoting weatherh98:
The BOC low appears to lose to the florida low.. slightly elongated though


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low? I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why?


Nuttin supposed to go to western gulf
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
i see two tropical waves on this map!!


Why does the NOAA put the low in the GOH when the surface analysis/obs have it near Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low? I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.


Yes thats barely a tropical depression anyway. needs another isobar to close
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That still makes absolutely no sense, how could a single closed isobar low the size of South Florida beat a large, broad monsoonal low. I'm discounting the GFS solution for the time being, it seems unrealistic and overestimates the strength of a FL low.


It takes this area near honduras north to the SE GULF in 60 to 72 hours. Look at the GFS closely and you can see the vort near Honduras slide NNE toward FL.

A quick poll.

Will the Caribbean area be mentioned at 2 PM TWO?

A-Yes
B-No

I say A.

I tell ya the gfs is selfish on development watch this try to develop and still it wont catch on
I can see this shifting to where the mid level swirl in the GOH is currently at, NW of this location

Quoting RitaEvac:


Nuttin supposed to go to western gulf


Yea, especially with this sitting over Texas...

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A quick poll.

Will the Caribbean area be mentioned at 2 PM TWO?

A-Yes
B-No

I say A.



Im in the middle
Folks the GFS, Nam, and CMC must be seeing something as they are all similar considering this event is starting for FL in less than 48 hours.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
he is trying to detach
1044. 7544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A quick poll.

Will the Caribbean area be mentioned at 2 PM TWO?

A-Yes
B-No

I say A.



A yes but not z at 2pm maybe latter tho
Up the Carolina coast this goes come later this weekend.

1046. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
WOW. Look at this and it is only out 108hrs. 3" to 5" of rain across most of FL between Wednesday & Friday.



amazing and ALL local mets are saying rain chances at 30%


the 144 hr shows the same thing as the 96 or so, two competing lows in the gulf
Quoting reedzone:
Yep, looks like what appears to be Subtropical Storm Chris developing north-northeast of Bermuda. Should expect classification in the next 5 hours if the organization persists.


Hi Allan-
What's your take on the future Florida low?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A quick poll.

Will the Caribbean area be mentioned at 2 PM TWO?

A-Yes
B-No

I say A.


AB, Maybe.
combining the new gfs with the cmc and nogaps, we may see a s florida e coast storm and possibly a weak west gulf one.

only one should be a ts though, maybe a td on anything else
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It takes this area near honduras north to the SE GULF in 60 to 72 hours. Look at the GFS closely and you can see the vort near Honduras slide NNE toward FL.



But the ridge is far to strong for that to happen, the other models have been showing that it will slide towards the Yucatan instead.
Very interesting, wonder what the NHC will do.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
combining the new gfs with the cmc and nogaps, we may see a s florida e coast storm and possibly a weak west gulf one.

only one should be a ts though, maybe a td on anything else


florida east GULF low or west florida low
I say that they mention something in the W Carib along the lines of "Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persisting, any development will be slow, 0%" and they up 95L to 60% code red. Just my guess, and I'll have one of my simplified analysis's shortly.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very interesting, wonder what the NHC will do.

Hopefully give it a Code Red.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I can see this shifting to where the mid level swirl in the GOH is currently at, NW of this location



Actually once this starts to consolidate it will move towards the Low level spin and the vorticity.


Simplified analysis, feel free to debunk my theories :P
Hi everyone,

I just finished a new blog post further expanding on my earlier thoughts on Invest 95L:

Link

It is looking good on satellite:

1062. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


Talem will follow Guchol harmlessly out to sea.
1063. WxLogic
Good Afternoon...

ULL moving W across the S GOM should help develop an upper level High across the W/NW Carib in a couple days which could definitely make the W/NW Carib more conducive for some slow tropical development.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But the ridge is far to strong for that to happen, the other models have been showing that it will slide towards the Yucatan instead.


I makes plenty of sense since the monsoonal trough is farther east than previously though and it should move north.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


I makes plenty of sense since the monsoonal trough is farther east than previously though and it should move north.

You can't have the monsoon trough farther east of west than originally thought, it doesn't make any sense. It can either be farther north, or farther south.
Maybe Dr. Masters is up and is writing a DETAILED blog entry on the Caribbean system and 95L.
Wow! It would be awesome if 95L became a sub/tropical cyclone today. That would be an awesome birthday present. =D
Heads up Doctor M:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181433Z - 181700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED MCS SHOULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AS
DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
LARGELY SUGGEST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND MAY REMAIN ONLY
LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SEVERE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS WITH SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHORT-LINE SEGMENT /NOW FROM SAGINAW TO BARRY COUNTIES/.
HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH THIS MCS AND
LITTLE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WAS NOTED IN THE GRR VWP DATA
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE LINE. WHILE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED PER MODIFIED 12Z DTX RAOB... CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO BE
RENEWED ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SEGMENT AS IT INTERCEPTS THE
FRINGE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL
ORIENTATION MAY BECOME MORE W/E WITH TIME AND MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can't have the monsoon trough farther east of west than originally thought, it doesn't make any sense. It can either be farther north, or farther south.


Notice how the trough of low pressure extends east so all the t-storms are firing east from the GOH to the central caribbean. Next the CMC, NAM and GFS predicts south florida will receive flooding rains as the monsoonal trough lifts unusually north to the Central/East gulf.

Link
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea, especially with this sitting over Texas...



The Houston WFO calls that ridge "mammoth."


LONGER RANGE STILL HAS EYES FOCUSED ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS COMING AROUND
TO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT LATELY. BOTH DEVELOP A CIRCULATION BY
FRIDAY AND NOW KEEP PCPN FARTHER SOUTH INTO GULF VERSUS PREVIOUS
RUNS SO WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS SHIFTS LOWER POPS FOR THU THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWARD BUT MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS SHUNTS THE CIRCULATION BACK WEST.
EXTENDED GFS MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHT WARMER AND DRIER AS A RESULT.
ECMWF EXPERIMENTAL MOS AGREES AS WELL SO WE SHOULD SEE MID 90S
INLAND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.


Bad prospects for getting anything out of that development.
Quoting wxmod:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Talem will follow Guchol harmlessly out to sea.


Those are good news...
My favorite thing about all the maps posted so far today is that there isn't a gigantic H sitting over Texas.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Folks the GFS, Nam, and CMC must be seeing something as they are all similar considering this event is starting for FL in less than 48 hours.

Also myself I check the GFDL and the HWRF Models they gave us some guidance,even though they are running for Invest 95L you can see a hint of a low (probably tropical depression or storm) coming to South Florida from the West (Bahamas).I always look at this 2 important models to see this hints.
1075. LargoFl
Has there ever been a season, that we've gotten two sub-tropical storms? Im sure there has, just curious.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Also myself I check the GFDL and the HWRF Models they gave us some guidance,even though they are running for Invest 95L you can see a hint of a low (probably tropical depression or storm) coming to South Florida from the West (Bahamas).I always look at this 2 important models to see this hints.


Really please post a link to this. Thanks.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Has there every been a season, that we've gotten two sub-tropical storms? Im sure there has, just curious.


There's been plenty, but mostly in the 70s and 80s.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Has there every been a season, that we've gotten two sub-tropical storms? Im sure there has, just curious.

Just originated subtropical or actually stayed subtropical throughout its entire lifespan?
Quoting Ameister12:
Wow! It would be awesome if 95L became a sub/tropical cyclone today. That would be an awesome birthday present. =D


happy birthday
1081. Joe21
Since im hearing about a east cosst low off of florida and west gulf could a tropical system form off of florida then make ts strength or cat 1 strength then ride up the east coast like hurricane david
7.9.or could it do a wilma track into florida?
Quoting Ameister12:
Wow! It would be awesome if 95L became a sub/tropical cyclone today. That would be an awesome birthday present. =D

Today is your birthday?

WxGeekVa did you get the message yesterday?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is your birthday?

Yep!
Quoting Joe21:
Since im hearing about a east cosst low off of florida and west gulf could a tropical system form off of florida then make ts strength or cat 1 strength then ride up the east coast like hurricane david
7.9.or could it do a wilma track into florida?


Welcome to the blog and more than likly no.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just originated subtropical or actually stayed subtropical throughout its entire lifespan?

Originated.
"Chris" will designated later today but remember his subtropical status next year when we talk about the record number of early season storms for 2012. The "names" are being used up early in the season so far, but the tropical Atlantic is still batting 2-0 as a result of the transition to tropical by Alberto (pre-season) and Beryl.....Impressive nonetheless over the course of the first 3 official weeks of the season and it will be much easier to attain higher numbers by the end of the season as a result......... Can't say this season has been boring or a bust so far....... :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But the ridge is far to strong for that to happen, the other models have been showing that it will slide towards the Yucatan instead.


Nope the reason is that a ridge is forecast to build over TX per the GFS and this creates a weakness across the Eastern Gulf & SE US Coast. The biggest reason for the change in the models now is no ULL east of FL which the GFS was forecast yesterday.

This is the 18Z GFS from yesterday. Notice the ULL east of FL and now it's gone on todays run so as a result the weakness builds over FL and the Gulf and the rains arrive Wednesday now instead on next week.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Originated.

Well, last year Lee started tropical and transitioned into a subtropical cyclone, if that counts. Sean was subtropical at the beginning.
1090. K8eCane
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Up the Carolina coast this goes come later this weekend.




I aint buyin that. The models had something going into texas this week and they dropped it
Quoting Ameister12:
Wow! It would be awesome if 95L became a sub/tropical cyclone today. That would be an awesome birthday present. =D


Happy Birthday, I think that wish might come true.
1093. ncstorm
colors are better








lets see, GFS has Florida, LA, Al, NC and texas in this run..did I miss anyone?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Originated.

It's happened several years before. If 95L forms we would already have 2 this year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
WxGeekVa did you get the message yesterday?


Yeah, did you get one back? I was on my phone most of the time because I was out and I wasn't sure if you got it.
Shouldn't the NHC be coming out with an update in a few minutes?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shouldn't the NHC be coming out with an update in a few minutes?

In an hour.
Hopefully my post# 1088 is simplified for everyone to understand why the drastic change by the GFS, NAM, and CMC models over the last 24 hours in regards to this potential trouble in the caribbean.


384HR ptot.

Ok, this isn't funny. Seriously? A bullseye of dryness right over Texas and Louisiana.
Quoting ncstorm:
colors are better








lets see, GFS has Florida, LA, Al, NC and texas in this run..did I miss anyone?


LOL. What a complete mess
Quoting K8eCane:



I aint buyin that. The models had something going into texas this week and they dropped it


Refer to post 1088 and you will see why the change is occuring in the models now. No Upper Level Low east of FL!
Quoting Ameister12:
Wow! It would be awesome if 95L became a sub/tropical cyclone today. That would be an awesome birthday present. =D

Happy Birthday!
Last year, Arlene formed on my B-day.
WxGeekVA no.
Quoting nofailsafe:


384HR ptot.

Ok, this isn't funny. Seriously? A bullseye of dryness right over Texas and Louisiana.


Perfect depiction of this change just by looking at that precip map.
If I read correctly, one has us (Louisiana) in a drought and one has us getting 'hit'. And good morning or afternoon as the case may be.
1106. Grothar
I saw it first!!!!

Link
My blog 4 today
1108. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nope the reason is that a ridge is forecast to build over TX per the GFS and this creates a weakness across the Eastern Gulf & SE US Coast. The biggest reason for the change in the models now is no ULL east of FL which the GFS was forecast yesterday.

This is the 18Z GFS from yesterday. Notice the ULL east of FL and now it's gone on todays run so as a result the weakness builds over FL and the Gulf and the rains arrive Wednesday now instead on next week.



Excellent explanation on why the models are shifting east. Also, I never bought into that so called monstrous High developing.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Perfect depiction of this change just by looking at that precip map.


Yep. I can has FL ULL back plz?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
"Chris" will designated later today but remember his subtropical status next year when we talk about the record number of early season storms for 2012. The "names" are being used up early in the season so far, but the tropical Atlantic is still batting 2-0 as a result of the transition to tropical by Alberto (pre-season) and Beryl.....Impressive nonetheless over the course of the first 3 official weeks of the season and it will be much easier to attain higher numbers by the end of the season as a result......... Can't say this season has been boring or a bust so far....... :)




165 daye remain of the 2012 atlantic hurricane season
Nope the reason is that a ridge is forecast to build over TX per the GFS and this creates a weakness across the Eastern Gulf & SE US Coast. The biggest reason for the change in the models now is no ULL east of FL which the GFS was forecast yesterday.

This is the 18Z GFS from yesterday. Notice the ULL east of FL and now it's gone on todays run so as a result the weakness builds over FL and the Gulf and the rains arrive Wednesday instead on next week.

Quoting VR46L:
This last couple of weeks must be absolutely devastating for ardent Climate Change believers. Temperatures down and very little drought around.


What an ignorant statement.

Climate trends are not measured in terms of days or weeks nor by using isolated parts of the globe.

Quoting Grothar:
I saw it first!!!!


You saw that. I saw 95L first I think.
*High 5*
Quoting washingtonian115:
WxGeekVA no.


Ah. Well pretty much it was just a thank you, and I totally understand and I'll try not to react like that in the future.
Quoting Grothar:
I saw it first!!!!



Pro blob watcher
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, last year Lee started subtropical and transitioned into a tropical cyclone, if that counts. Sean was subtropical at the beginning.


Lee was vice versa, it actually transitioned to a sub-tropical cyclone after being and developing tropically.
1118. ncstorm
As much as I anticipate tropical storms/hurricanes, NC surely dosent need anything knocking out power as we supposed to be HOT for a while..I cant go without my AC..not yet anyway..
1119. LargoFl
nice here on the gulf coast today
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Excellent explanation on why the models are shifting east. Also, I never bought into that so called monstrous High developing.


Thanks. I just reposted. This was from the NWS in Melbourne yesterday morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

WED-SAT...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS QUICK TO INCREASE DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO BOTH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF FLORIDA THAT MAINTAINS A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUPPRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
. DUE
TO MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...RAN A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. THIS SHOWS
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM WED AND
BEYOND...BUT STILL KEEPS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO SHOW A
SLOW INCREASE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BECOMING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Shear is continuing to drop to favorable levels over the AOI in the W Caribbean.



850mb Vort remaining reasonably strong.



More low convergence than previously.



wide spread strong convection. Imo this AOI has "good potential" for development.
Man o man I don't know which way to go on this FLA/BOC brawl,ya'll make so much sense on both sides!!!!!
Quoting LargoFl:
nice here on the gulf coast today


Saturday was wonderful down on Galveston, then the sun came out and I burst into flame.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Thanks. I just reposted. This was from the NWS in Melbourne yesterday morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

WED-SAT...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS QUICK TO INCREASE DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO BOTH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF FLORIDA THAT MAINTAINS A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUPPRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
. DUE
TO MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...RAN A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. THIS SHOWS
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM WED AND
BEYOND...BUT STILL KEEPS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO SHOW A
SLOW INCREASE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BECOMING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.



Man we need to have this thing to get designated 96L now. Hopefully it is at 2pm but it will be only at 0% knowing the NHC. Do you think we have it at 2pm?
Quoting LargoFl:
nice here on the gulf coast today


yea starting to get hot
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lee was vice versa, it actually transitioned to a sub-tropical cyclone after being and developing tropically.


Hey buddy did you see post 1088? A weakness now forecast to build between a high over TX and one near Bermuda basically leaving the door open across FL and the SE US now that the ULL is not forecast to happen off the east coast of FL.
1087 weathermanwannabe: ...Can't say this season has been boring or a bust so far... :)

What a boring bust of a season. Why if we were living on Jupiter...
Well, I'd be dead for starters. But in an exciting and interesting way.
North America ECMWF-00 Ensemble 6-10 Day 500 MB Height Anomalies




Link
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Really please post a link to this. Thanks.
HERE ARE THE 2 LINKS FOR THESE MODELS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2 012061806-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2 012061806-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation

Quoting ncstorm:
colors are better








lets see, GFS has Florida, LA, Al, NC and texas in this run..did I miss anyone?


Lol. :)
we are beating 2005 2-1, but we have to be fast or we will get caught.

starting june 28, there was a 2005 storm every couple of weeks or less.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey buddy did you see post 1088? A weakness now forecast to build between a high over TX and one near Bermuda basically leaving the door open across FL and the SE US now that the ULL is not forecast to happen off the east coast of FL.


Hey tell wunderkid.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
HERE ARE THE 2 LINKS FOR THESE MODELS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2 012061806-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&a mp;hour= Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2 012061806-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&a mp;hour= Animation



As you can see both Hurricane Models are hinting a low coming from the west to South Florida,either a tropical depression or storm?.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey buddy did you see post 1088? A weakness now forecast to build between a high over TX and one near Bermuda basically leaving the door open across FL and the SE US now that the ULL is not forecast to happen off the east coast of FL.


Yes, I just saw it and I hadn't noticed it, but it could very well do that. Still, the GFS doesn't make much sense to me, IMO.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
we are beating 2005 2-1, but we have to be fast or we will get caught.

starting june 28, there was a 2005 storm every couple of weeks or less.


Just throwing this out there... we are going to get caught
I need to move to Alaska, you'd think with the wind today it would help reduce the heat just a bit, but no instead it is feels like walking straight into a blast furnace.  It's a little warm today.  Already 90 at noon here.  Got a whole week of this mid 90's crap.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Thanks for that cody, that wwas cool to see
Quoting Hurricane1956:


As you can see both Hurricane Models are hinting a low coming from the west to South Florida,either a tropical depression or storm?.


Yes it support the GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS the reason why it takes it to S. Florida is the split over Florida in the High mentioned by StormTracker2k which was once suppose to be one powerful high that forced development in the BOC and takes it to Texas.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes, I just saw it and I hadn't noticed it, but it could very well do that. Still, the GFS doesn't make much sense to me, IMO.


Yea, the key for FL was getting that ULL east of FL outta here so that we can open the door again for what could be this time around flooding rains across FL as the 12Z GFS is showing over 10" of rain for both the east coast and west coast of FL with 3" to 6" totals over the interior of the state. Yes, Tampa is highlighted by the GFS with 10" plus over the next 8 days.

1140. ncstorm
12z

Quoting ILwthrfan:
I need to move to Alaska, you'd think with the wind today it would help reduce the heat just a bit, but no instead it is feels like walking straight into a blast furnace.  It's a little warm today.  Already 90 at noon here.  Got a whole week of this mid 90's crap.



Ouch!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Click on the Fronts , they have now relocated the Low in GOH.
Where was it before?
Tropical Storm Talim (45 knots - 50 mph)

18/1501 UTC 19.2N 114.2E T2.5/2.5 TALIM -- West Pacific



Typhoon Guchol (95 knots - 110 mph)

18/1432 UTC 26.3N 129.3E T4.0/5.0 GUCHOL -- West Pacific



Tropical Invest 95E (25 knots - 30 mph)

18/1200 UTC 17.4N 108.1W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
we are beating 2005 2-1, but we have to be fast or we will get caught.

starting june 28, there was a 2005 storm every couple of weeks or less.


El Nino is comming fast and may close the Atlantic to developments after September. Todays CPC update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.3C.

Link
Quoting weatherh98:


Just throwing this out there... we are going to get caught


prolly, but i hope 2012 gets up to a 4-1 lead

when the monster transatlantic/transcontinental high builds in, we may not see much for a while, but the wave train might go south of it into N South America.

but then again, that high may just be a figment of the gfs imagination

This situation with the gulf and Caribbean is confusing as hell.Like can someone explain because everything is just all over the place.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yea, the key for FL was getting that ULL east of FL outta here so that we can open the door again for what could be this time around flooding rains across FL as the 12Z GFS is showing over 10" of rain for both the east coast and west coast of FL with 3" to 6" totals over the interior of the state. Yes, Tampa is highlighted by the GFS with 10" plus over the next 8 days.



Man here in Florida is going to get blasted by Rain kinda like the Panhandle did last week. Is it me or does this seem familar.... oh yea 2004.
Give credit due where credit it is due, Grothar!!!! deserves the JDAA or Junior Development Analyst Award.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This situation with the gulf and Caribbean is confusing as hell.Like can someone explain because everything is just all over the place.


There is a wave in the GOH that will move into the BOC while some energy north of honduras will move too the central GOM.They will begin to move north and compete for dominance. the central GOM low will move into the bend in floridaa and move up the east coast and the BOC low will move north towards texas.
1150. 7544
ok our carr blob looks like its trying to organize at this g hour stay tuned
Quoting gordydunnot:
Give credit due where credit it is due, Grothar!!!! deserves the JDAA or Junior Development Analyst Award.


More like SDAA
Senior development analyst award
Quoting washingtonian115:
This situation with the gulf and Caribbean is confusing as hell.Like can someone explain because everything is just all over the place.


Refer to post 1088 and 1120. That should clear the air.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Man here in Florida is going to get blasted by Rain kinda like the Panhandle did last week. Is it me or does this seem familar.... oh yea 2004.
Stop saying that horrid year.
weatherh98 thanks.
95L better develop into tropical storm Chris and the NHC better put a yellow circle in the caribean
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


El Nino is comming fast and may close the Atlantic to developments after September. Todays CPC update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.3C.

Link


but we might still have a modoki or a neutralish year, i would say we could get up to the upper teens in storms, but not anything like 2005, especially if el nino sets in after hurricane season, and cools the n atlantic to december storms with all the cold air spilling out.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yea, the key for FL was getting that ULL east of FL outta here so that we can open the door again for what could be this time around flooding rains across FL as the 12Z GFS is showing over 10" of rain for both the east coast and west coast of FL with 3" to 6" totals over the interior of the state. Yes, Tampa is highlighted by the GFS with 10" plus over the next 8 days.

If that GFS verifies any at all you can pretty much erase any evidence of whats left of the existing drought conditions except maybe the western panhandle.  Of course that all hinges on what mischief develops out of the monsoonal trough late this week into next.  


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but we might still have a modoki or a neutralish year, i would say we could get up to the upper teens in storms, but not anything like 2005, especially if el nino sets in after hurricane season, and cools the n atlantic to december storms with all the cold air spilling out.
I am still forecasting 16 name storms that was my original prediction.
Quoting weatherh98:


There is a wave in the GOH that will move into the BOC while some energy north of honduras will move too the central GOM.They will begin to move north and compete for dominance. the central GOM low will move into the bend in floridaa and move up the east coast and the BOC low will move north towards texas.


Not likely one low will dominate and absorb the other or the GOH low just dissipate over mountainous land in the Yucatan and dry air in the BOC.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Stop saying that horrid year.
weatherh98 thanks.


anytime bud
1160. VR46L
Quoting BobWallace:


What an ignorant statement.

Climate trends are not measured in terms of days or weeks nor by using isolated parts of the globe.



Hmmm to me the statement saying that I am making an ignorant statement is hardly polite .

And it appears that anyone who doesnt buy into Climate Change in its entirety is not welcome here which is crazy surely there should be debate and not ridicule mocking or bullying. but I guess if people on this issue only wish to hear their own view then that is fine .
1161. Grothar
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yea, the key for FL was getting that ULL east of FL outta here so that we can open the door again for what could be this time around flooding rains across FL as the 12Z GFS is showing over 10" of rain for both the east coast and west coast of FL with 3" to 6" totals over the interior of the state. Yes, Tampa is highlighted by the GFS with 10" plus over the next 8 days.



Yep, it could get very wet. That blocking high seems to want to stay there over the US. So I don't see much to move the system if it develops. Wonder how much the models will change on their next run?



This is still 138 hours out and it doesn't move much.

Quoting allancalderini:
95L better develop into tropical storm Chris and the NHC better put a yellow circle in the caribean
It sounds like your demanding something.Lol.
2 Pm TWO -
95L bumped up to 50%
pre-96L mentioned with 10%
95E bumped up to 50%

EDIT: This is a Prediction, don't go nuts people, and rush to the NHC site...
Like always, the NHC will surprise me 70% chance
Quoting washingtonian115:
It sounds like your demanding something.Lol.
Yes I am.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2 Pm TWO -
95L bumped up to 50%
pre-96L mentioned with 10%
95E bumped up to 50%

I'd go 60% with 95L, but otherwise, I agree.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2 Pm TWO -
95L bumped up to 50%
pre-96L mentioned with 10%
95E bumped up to 50%

95L will be up to 60%
pre 96L will be put at 10 or 20
95E will be up to 50
super typhoon going going

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd go 60% with 95L, but otherwise, I agree.

Yeah... My 50% is a tad conservative, but times like these, the NHC is conservative. Still thinking 50%.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2 Pm TWO -
95L bumped up to 50%
pre-96L mentioned with 10%
95E bumped up to 50%


60% Red 95L
0% Yellow Carib disturbance
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd go 60% with 95L, but otherwise, I agree.


Id keep 95e at 40 and i agree with the 60 and 10
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2 Pm TWO -
95L bumped up to 50%
pre-96L mentioned with 10%
95E bumped up to 50%



2pm TWO

95L: 50%
pre-96L: 0%
95E: 60%
1106 Grothar plus 8: I saw it first!!!! [convection map]

Hokay, I didn't and still don't. What are you 9 seeing?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
super typhoon going going



poof
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Where was it before?
It was in the GOH and now is East of Hon/Nic border.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
super typhoon going going

Bye Bye.
1178. Grothar
The MJO will be a big player in what develops. 95L could already be influencing the Caribbean feature.

The very deep trough looks like is wants to stay around for a few more days. Notice a very strong circulation betweeen the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan. I expect to see a number of different lows developing in the Gulf and Caribbean over the next few days.




I have also posted a link of the animation.

Look carefully how each feature is affecting the other.

Link
This time of the year, with all of the shifting variables present and "not quite ripe" conditions across the board (or little pockets of viability in places which can change every few days) is tough to forecast.

It will be a different story, unfortunately, when we start getting model consensus in August on development of some of the African waves in the long term. El Nino and potential September sheer values notwithstanding, we are probably going to see several majors spin up in the August-early September time frame once we get to those cape verde storm "clusters". And I am not liking the current A-B high set-up in the Atlantic with that persistent ridging.

Link



Quoting Grothar:
The MJO will be a big player in what develops. 95L could already be influencing the Caribbean feature.

The very deep trough looks like is wants to stay around for a few more days. Notice a very strong circulation betweeen the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan. I expect to see a number of different lows developing in the Gulf and Caribbean over the next few days.




I have also posted a link of the animation.

Look carefully how each feature is affecting the other.

Link

It looks like another frontal low is trying to go get going north of Puerto Rico.
MY PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION

95L= 80%

no yellow circle in carib

95E= 50%


NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!!
Brace yourselves

The 2Pm TWO is coming!

(No image to avoid complaining trolls, sorry :( )
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
MY PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION

95L= 80%

no yellow circle in carib

95E= 50%


NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!!

Ok Ok Ok Ok Ok Ok!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Brace yourselves

The 2Pm TWO is coming!

(No image to avoid complaing trolls, sorry :( )

Lol, sorry about yesterday.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Brace yourselves

The 2Pm TWO is coming!

(No image to avoid complaing trolls, sorry :( )


ill post it
Quoting Ameister12:

Yep!

Happy Birthday! :)


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
MY PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION PREDICTION

95L= 80%

no yellow circle in carib

95E= 50%


NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!! NOT FROM NHC!!!


BOLD MOVE
What in the wide world of sports is Joe Bustardi looking at ?



Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
super typhoon going going


gone?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ok Ok Ok Ok Ok Ok!!!


YES YES YES YES!!!! (you'll know what I'm doing if ur a wrestling fan.)
1192. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
1106 Grothar plus 8: I saw it first!!!! [convection map]

Hokay, I didn't and still don't. What are you 9 seeing?


A sense of humor. Just a little joke of mine because, sometimes people will argue they saw something first.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


Ha 50% :D
1179 weathermanwannabe ...And I am not liking the current A-B high set-up in the Atlantic with that persistent ridging.


95L reversing course? Seems like northward and eastward is blocked off.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


Seems logical. They are looking for persistence in convection/organization. If it persists, we will have Subtropical Storm Chris by 5 p.m.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting reedzone:


YES YES YES YES!!!! (you'll know what I'm doing if ur a wrestling fan.)


Lol Did you watch No Way Out ppv last night?
1201. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It looks like another frontal low is trying to go get going north of Puerto Rico.


Exactly.
1202. ncstorm
12z short range CMC..starts turning it NE

Quoting cyclonekid:
As I see it, 95L seems to be one of those storms that gets extremely close to becoming a (sub)tropical storm, but never does because of frontal features. Although, it has a decent chance to become detached from the front(s), sea surface temperatures are kinda low (22C-24C) when it comes to development. This is only my opinion though. Like some other members here, I keep saying to look in the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico for development of our next tropical depression/storm.



looks like it is trying to seperate from the frontal looking part of it
50% chance it is then, no mention of the Caribbean yet.
4 twos ha 2 is enough though
Who knows......the NHC might surprise us.
The 2 was posted 5 times and quoted twice
Stated... IT'S AQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
Quoting ncstorm:
12z short range CMC..starts turning it NE



other side of fl, right to flood pensacola.
that is back where it started 3 weeks ago.

strange.
Quoting weatherh98:
The 2 was posted 5 times and quoted twice

Good counting skills you got there... :P
I'll say STS or TS Chris by 5 PM..
waiting for ATCF
no carib, i was right, but if it could become a ts later today with persistence, they should have given it more than 50%, at least 70% if you include tomorrow.
epac always wins lol... 60%
heres the graphics
Landsea is a presisentance guy it appears not convince of a mention
Looks like we could have Chris later on today.I bet' chu know one saw that coming.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Hey I nailed 95E with 60 percent.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


Knew it I nailed 95L with 50%
Looks like Chris really wants to come out of 95L.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Good counting skills you got there... :P


why thank you
here are your graphics that i promised
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is gonna get us banned

LOLOLOLOL no way to a ban.........hahahahaha
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd say alot of bathwater


crayon jackers these days
Quoting aspectre:
1179 weathermanwannabe ...And I am not liking the current A-B high set-up in the Atlantic with that persistent ridging.


95L reversing course? Seems like northward and eastward is blocked off.


I am not going to go that far (cause it has busted through the initial ridging) but anything is possible I suppose looking at the current charts.......... :)
1226. dabirds
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I need to move to Alaska, you'd think with the wind today it would help reduce the heat just a bit, but no instead it is feels like walking straight into a blast furnace.  It's a little warm today.  Already 90 at noon here.  Got a whole week of this mid 90's crap.

Hope you got some rain sat nite, not much here, but we got 2+ earlier. They sure took away that nice forecast they had middle of last week and replaced it with a sauna. Really didn't like the StL long range, hopefully it will pivot opposite like this week's.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Lol Did you watch No Way Out ppv last night?


No, but I loved the end result. Good RAW tonight for sure.
Quoting weatherh98:


crayon jackers these days


I was the only that said 93E would be 60% at 2pm.
Also got 95L right with 50%. It was an ok PPV.
Chris will likely come out of 95L, Yes. But Not at the next advisory... I give it a 35% chance of getting named at 5.. but 11 seems a lot more reasonable to me. I give it a 60% chance of getting named at 11. And if it doesn't form them, the chance will only increase for formation moving on down the timeframe and into tomorrow, once tomorrow passes... You can kiss 95L's chances of becoming Chris goodbye.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Chris will likely come out of 95L, Yes. But Not at the next advisory... I give it a 35% chance of getting named at 5.. but 11 seems a lot more reasonable to me. I give it a 60% chance of getting named at 11. And if it doesn't form them, the chance will only increase for formation moving on down the timeframe and into tomorrow, once tomorrow passes... You can kiss 95L's chances of becoming Chris goodbye.


All IF it can keep firing clouds
Quoting weatherh98:


crayon jackers these days

I think 95E will be a red crayon, bust.
Let's just say it has a 40% chance of NOT developing ;D
I just don't see getting Daniel out of this.
Cindy of 2011 form north or south of the current location of 95L? that I can remember.
BBL see yall
Quoting allancalderini:
Cindy of 2011 form north or south of the current location of 95L? that I can remember.

East-Southeast.
Quoting weatherh98:


All IF it can keep firing clouds

Yep, It could end up like 92L... One of those DMAX-DMIN swayers that can't fire convection enough to get named.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Yep, It could end up like 92L... One of those DMAX-DMIN swayers that can't fire convection enough to get named.

92L only fired convection because there was instability between the upper level and lower levels of the atmosphere, cold-air aloft. Without that, it wouldn't have been able to fire convection due to SSTs between 19-21C.

95L, on the other hand, has SSTs definitely supportive of a subtropical cyclone. In fact, one could argue they are warm enough to allow for a tropical transition.
Weather98 I was just trying to give the man a break as it was a presystem, hence junior. I should have know that comment wouldn't get past this group. Sorry Grothar I tried.
Looks like an elongated and broad area of circulation is trying to get going around that 1008mb surface low.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

92L only fired convection because there was instability between the upper level and lower levels of the atmosphere, cold-air aloft. Without that, it wouldn't have been able to fire convection due to SSTs between 19-21C.

95L, on the other hand, has SSTs definitely supportive of a subtropical cyclone. In fact, one could argue they are warm enough to allow for a tropical transition.

True...
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like an elongated and broad area of circulation is trying to get going around that 1008mb surface low.



Looks like Yucatan bound
1242. wxmod
Okinawa affects the hurricane! Game over. Guchol is whimpering. Another triumph for wx mod!
It's been reported that all models this morning had a glitch from bad input overnight, all models are considered outliers and therefore thrown out till tonight's runs. Everything is still a go, and full steam ahead for a gulf bound storm for TX/MX end of week.
1160 VR46L: And it appears that anyone who doesn't buy into Climate Change in its entirety is not welcome here which is crazy surely there should be debate and not ridicule mocking or bullying. but I guess if people on this issue only wish to hear their own view then that is fine.

Admittedly your posting had far less information about what&where was getting cooler, but it ain't like there's much left to debate when "You should be devastated. The beer in my refrigerator is cold, proving that GlobalWarming isn't happening"...
...though you could explain why I should become emotionally distraught after being told, "Bad news I'm afraid. You're limbs aren't gangrenous. We won't hafta amputate."
Quoting wxmod:
Okinawa affects the hurricane! Game over. Guchol is whimpering. Another triumph for wx mod!


There was absolutely no weather modification associated with Guchol. It has weakened due to increased wind shear and dry air. This was forecasted correctly a long time ago and was never unexpected. Please, can you take your conspiracies elsewhere?
1247. ncstorm
Singing.."Nobody knows"..

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
121 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

VALID 12Z THU JUN 21 2012 - 12Z MON JUN 25 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED MOSTLY THE 00Z/18 ECMWF WITH A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE
00Z/18 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES
FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...THEN FLIPPED THE WEIGHTING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO
THAT TIME RANGE. THE ECMWF IS SOLIDLY CORRELATED WITH THE ECENS
MEAN...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO ITS SOLUTION. THE 00Z/18 GEFS MEAN
CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE...ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THE GEM GLOBAL IS ALONE IN SPINNING UP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE EAST OF FLORIDA. WILL AWAIT THE REGULARLY
SCHEDULED 1700Z COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
REFINE THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM INDICATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.


FINAL...

AS A WHOLE...THE 12Z/18 MODEL CYCLE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASONS
TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PRELIMINARY UPDATE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. REFINED THE SUBTROPICS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS PER
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...OPTING TO EXTEND
A TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.



CISCO

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like an elongated and broad area of circulation is trying to get going around that 1008mb surface low.



It could take awhile for this to tighten up and close off.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


There was absolutely no weather modification associated with Guchol. It has weakened due to increased wind shear and dry air. This was forecasted correctly a long time ago and was never unexpected. Please, can you take your conspiracies elsewhere?

That guy cracked me up at first. It got old though, so he's on my ignore list now.
1250. ncstorm
12z Euro

72


96
Quoting Hurricanes305:


It could take awhile for this to tighten up and close off.


Oh yes it will, if it even decides too. If it does, it would be interesting to see if this becomes a storm earlier than thought.
95L is very nearly tropical storm CHRIS.Latest ASCAT is showing that the system has almost closed off a low centre,and looks more tropical than subtropical. i expect with the increased organisation that the system should be named by 5 pm today
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That guy cracked me up at first. It got old though, so he's on my ignore list now.


He shows a few cirrus clouds or contrails and calls it "proof of weather modification" I just added him to mine so I don't have to hear it anymore either.
SHIPS wind shear forecast for 95L.


SHEAR (KT) 31 29 30 17 7 13 14 19 25 27 11 28 22


Lowers below 20 knots in 18 hours, below 10 knots in 24.
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro

72


96


That is much further east with this low that it's previous 0Z Run.

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro

72


96


Is that a little bit more stronger than in past runs?
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Oh yes it will, if it even decides too. If it does, it would be interesting to see if this becomes a storm earlier than thought.


Once it does it should move into the Eastern gulf and cross over Florida. Predicted by the models
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Folks the GFS, Nam, and CMC must be seeing something as they are all similar considering this event is starting for FL in less than 48 hours.



Perhaps they are on massive quanities of narcotics!!
This afternoon's marine discussion by NHC.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO SW GULF WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT A FRESH E BREEZE
OVER STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
LINGER OVER NW GULF WATERS FROM PREVIOUS TROUGH PASSAGE. DRIER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO AREA INHIBIT CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTEN OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
TUE BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SE GULF ACROSS
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SCENARIO WITH GFS GIVING MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH STRONG E
BREEZE OVER ALONG STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND
UKMET INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE BREEZE. FORECAST
FAVORS ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER OR TROUGH EMERGING OFF W YUCATAN
INTO SW GULF LATE THU OR FRI. OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS GFS AND
ECMWF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC FLOW IN BROAD SWATH AROUND
LOW PRES. EXPECT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS SRN GULF THU AND
FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BROAD LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 16N84W OFF NE COAST OF HONDURAS
REMAINS THE MOST CRITICAL FEATURE AS UNCERTAINTY OF POSITION MAY
THROW A WRENCH INTO MODEL SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE
CENTER IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH MAY THEN TRACK
ERRATICALLY FROM EXPECTED. ONE CERTAIN FACT IS ENORMOUS AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WHICH ENHANCES LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH STILL
REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WRN CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
FAVORS STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO MOVE ACROSS BELIZE AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU OR FRI. HOWEVER
...STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
BRINGS WLY WIND SHEAR OVER LOW PRES CENTER KEEPING CONVECTION ON
ITS E SIDE WITH JAMAICA AND SMALLER ISLANDS GETTING THE BLUNT OF
RAINFALL. EXPECT CONTINUED HEAVY CONVECTION OVER WRN CARIBBEAN
INTO THU AS LOW PRES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DRIFT
W.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Oh yes it will, if it even decides too. If it does, it would be interesting to see if this becomes a storm earlier than thought.


Euro is taking it into the central Gulf. I do not really like to rely to much on the models until a storm actually exist though. One run it is in Mexico, the next it is crossing Florida. Today's runs have a storm hitting everywhere in the Gulf lol!
1263. LargoFl
lol
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Euro is taking it into the central Gulf. I do not really like to rely to much on the models until a storm actually exist though. One run it is in Mexico, the next it is crossing Florida. Today's runs have a storm hitting everywhere in the Gulf lol!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


waning slightly
1266. ncstorm
low still sitting there..

144 hours
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Euro is taking it into the central Gulf. I do not really like to rely to much on the models until a storm actually exist though. One run it is in Mexico, the next it is crossing Florida. Today's runs have a storm hitting everywhere in the Gulf lol!


Like I said, full steam ahead
this is the most frustrating storm i have ever seen!!! Anywhere from south TX to FL could be hit
1270. LargoFl
1271. ncstorm
168 hours..two lows

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS wind shear forecast for 95L.


SHEAR (KT) 31 29 30 17 7 13 14 19 25 27 11 28 22


Lowers below 20 knots in 18 hours, below 10 knots in 24.
It could intensify to 60 or 65 mph with that type of shear.
Quoting BobWallace:


What an ignorant statement.

Climate trends are not measured in terms of days or weeks nor by using isolated parts of the globe.



When are you gonna learn to play nice? It serves no purpose to use that tone to defend your argument. Sounds like a personal attack to me which is a violation of the rules of the road here on WU
Quoting ncstorm:
168 hours..two lows



How in the world does that happen....
Quoting RitaEvac:
It's been reported that all models this morning had a glitch from bad input overnight, all models are considered outliers and therefore thrown out till tonight's runs. Everything is still a go, and full steam ahead for a gulf bound storm for TX/MX end of week.


by who?
sounds like the rumor that said the spc was going to go above high risk this past april, and i dont believe it.
#1260. Based on the Marine Discussion, they are still favoring a BOC solution. I don't know, there are a lot of dynamics going on right now.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yes it support the GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS the reason why it takes it to S. Florida is the split over Florida in the High mentioned by StormTracker2k which was once suppose to be one powerful high that forced development in the BOC and takes it to Texas.


It still does
1278. ncstorm
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


How in the world does that happen....


theres an another area of strong vorticity that has been there with the initalization of the low..it finally formed into a low
AL, 95, 2012061818, , BEST, 0, 380N, 613W, 40, 1005, LO
Quoting FtMyersgal:


When are you gonna learn to play nice? It serves no purpose to use that tone to defend your argument. Sounds like a personal attack to me which is a violation of the rules of the road here on WU

Sounds to me like one can't make a sufficient rebuttal so they feel they must attack. Sad.
Quoting ncstorm:


theres an another area of strong vorticity that has been there with the initalization of the low..it finally formed into a low


I would think one would win and the other would dissipate. Anything is possible though...
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 95, 2012061818, , BEST, 0, 380N, 613W, 40, 1005, LO

thanks taz
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


How in the world does that happen....


All the models are now showing a weakness over FL as the ULL east of FL on previous models is gone. So basically this is implying a very wet pattern for FL and it's not out of the question that we could see some all-time records for rainfall go by the wayside for June. The record in Orlando is 18" and they are near 6" now with many others around here in the 8" to 10" range.

Quoting ncstorm:
168 hours..two lows



The one near FL is much stronger though.

Quoting weatherbro:


It still does


Ok and who says this? Better pack an umbrella come Wednesday as that is when the rain will arrive.

Quoting weatherbro:


It still does


Dude look at the latest Euro it much farther east. Really nice support in the models as they are shifting east.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


All the models are now showing a weakness over FL as the ULL east of FL on previous models is gone. So basically this is implying a very wet pattern for FL and it's not out of the question that we could see some all-time records for rainfall go by the wayside for June. The record in Orlando is 18" and they are near 6" now with many others around here in the 8" to 10" range.



Yes that would be quite a disaster for Florida especially since we are a few months away from the peak of Hurricane season. I don't really trust the models right now. They are all over the place.
1288. ncstorm
CHAOS

Quoting ncstorm:
CHAOS



4 different lows... wow! Quite a mess down there!
Quoting ncstorm:
CHAOS



MA'AT
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Dude look at the latest Euro it much farther east. Really nice support in the models as they are shifting east.


As per HPC disco, 12Z Euro has not shifted!
ASCAT has the circulation around 15.5N 81.0W with PRE-96L
Quoting ncstorm:
CHAOS



LOL that is crazy and has 0.001% chance of happening. If that were to happen that would be a miracle.
edit
Quoting weatherbro:


As per HPC disco, 12Z Euro has not shifted!


What?? It parks this monsoon trough right over C FL in 3 days. Expect a big change on the HPC maps later this evening.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
95L



Honestly... I think overall organization and convection should be sufficient for this to be declared TS or STS Chris. I just can't see how this wouldn't be classified
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ASCAT has the circulation around 15.5N 81.0W with PRE-96L


According to the NHC marine discussion, the 1008 low expected to move west across.Belize and the Yucatan into the BOC.
1301. ncstorm
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


LOL that is crazy and has 0.001% chance of happening. If that were to happen that would be a miracle.


its weird and the GFS pretty much had the same run..
Hello boyz and gurlz,

This Saturday I'm going to Naples Fla. to move some furniture for a friend.

Here is my dilemma, I'm driving down from Indiana, with a large scale SUV and a 20ft, box trailer, I'm not very good at predicting storms thru models, so with that said what is the opinions of you good weather-casters, wish-casters!
for this coming weekend and next week, is any of the models still predicting bad weather for Southern Fla?
I've ridden out several canes before, and hate it!
My friend is handi-capped and may need help!
I can handle the wind but the surge is what I'm afraid of.
Going to be near I-75 from where it turns east-west, north south!

I have several friends in here who will post if they see me in here!
1303. nigel20
Good afternoon everyone!
Quoting tropicfreak:


Honestly... I think overall organization and convection should be sufficient for this to be declared TS or STS Chris. I just can't see how this wouldn't be classified


If it isn't persistent, then it won't be classified.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I'd say alot of bathwater


I went down to Galveston this weekend, the water there was absolutely bath water. Nice and warm but bad news for everyone if something decided to spin up.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like an elongated and broad area of circulation is trying to get going around that 1008mb surface low.



Land interaction may play a role in the development of this disturbance.
1307. ncstorm
the last frame..

Quoting trunkmonkey:
Hello boyz and gurlz,

This Saturday I'm going to Naples Fla. to move some furniture for a friend.

Here is my dilemma, I'm driving down from Indiana, with a large scale SUV and a 20ft, box trailer, I'm not very good at predicting storms thru models, so with that said what is the opinions of you good weather-casters, wish-casters!
for this coming weekend and next week, is any of the models still predicting bad weather for Southern Fla?
I've ridden out several canes before, and hate it!
My friend is handi-capped and may need help!
I can handle the wind but the surge is what I'm afraid of.
Going to be near I-75 from where it turns east-west, north south!

I have several friends in here who will post if they see me in here!


Be prepared for a Cat 5 landfall at any time!

But seriously, you should always be ready for that in Florida and anywhere along the gulf coast.

In actuality, maybe you could see a few gusty showers, but I don't see anything that bad in Florida around that timeframe. Maybe a weak TS but you shouldn't worry too much about that.
convection is waning i think
Quoting ncstorm:


its weird and the GFS pretty much had the same run..


Monsoonal systems are hard to pin down. We may see nothing but heavy rains across the SE US or we could have a hurricane per the GGEM model.


Quoting WxGeekVA:


If it isn't persistent, then it won't be classified.

So far so good.
Quoting weatherh98:
convection is waning i think

Looks fine to me. I mean, it's not as strong as it was earlier in the southwest quadrant, but colder cloud tops wrap farther around the circulation as opposed to earlier.
Nogaps is right with the CMC, GFS, and NAM models.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks fine to me. I mean, it's not as strong as it was earlier in the southwest quadrant, but colder cloud tops wrap farther around the circulation as opposed to earlier.


we may have some refiring in the northwest
Here's the score right now:

Actuality: 10
Models: 0
Aint nuttin out there, aint gonna be anything out there...until actuality shows it's out there
POSS T.C.F.A.
95L/INV/XX
MARK
37.75N/61.25W
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
TYPHOON GUCHOL (T1204)
3:00 AM JST June 19 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Guchol (960 hPa) located at 27.3N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 22 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 37.2N 137.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Niigata Prefecture
48 HRS: 41.3N 142.8E - Extratropical Cyclone northern Japan


some one say rocket fuel
Guchol down to 100 mph.


Photo I just took, South Sound, Grand Cayman. Hope it shows.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


some one say rocket fuel


Not impressive off Florida, except for south FL
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like an elongated and broad area of circulation is trying to get going around that 1008mb surface low.



C'Mon Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!! Spinnnnnnnn
Moisture surge coming up a lil faster than expected, may be bumping up the POPS on Tuesday now.


000
FXUS62 KMFL 181831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 24
HR PERIOD...INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THIS MOISTURE AXIS RETURNS NORTH BY THE
END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. AT THIS TIME...STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INTRODUCE SHRA/VCSH IN THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DOES
BEGIN TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 85/AG

Quoting RitaEvac:
It's been reported that all models this morning had a glitch from bad input overnight, all models are considered outliers and therefore thrown out till tonight's runs. Everything is still a go, and full steam ahead for a gulf bound storm for TX/MX end of week.
LOL,You got a positve attitude!!!!!!
Here is the latest wind shear

Shear around the low pressure in the sw carib is falling

Here's the latest vorticity map (850mb)

Vorticity align right on top of the low pressure center.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


some one say rocket fuel


rocket fuel
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
159 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 156 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAC
LA CROIX...OR 34 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MP
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM TALIM (1205)
3:00 AM JST June 18 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Talim (992 hPa) located at 19.0N 113.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
250 NM from the center in southern quadrant
140 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.5N 116.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 25.5N 120.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Taiwan Strait
72 HRS: 31.1N 128.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - west of Kyushu (western Japan)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Moisture surge coming up a lil faster than expected, may be bumping up the POPS on Tuesday now.


000
FXUS62 KMFL 181831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 24
HR PERIOD...INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THIS MOISTURE AXIS RETURNS NORTH BY THE
END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. AT THIS TIME...STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INTRODUCE SHRA/VCSH IN THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DOES
BEGIN TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 85/AG



Yea by Wednesday this moisture axis will be moving up across C FL.
bbl
1319. Looks like a fire burning in the gulf and carribbean!
Quoting stormpetrol:


Photo I just took, South Sound, Grand Cayman. Hope it shows.


great pic!




2 more.
As far as the CONUS is concerned, TX and LA are the real deal when it comes to GOM water temperatures. We blow everything and everybody off the scale.


Burns just to look at it
Stormpetrol..was there much wave action coming into the C.C. area when you were there?
1337. nigel20
Quoting stormpetrol:


Photo I just took, South Sound, Grand Cayman. Hope it shows.

Plenty of dark clouds...i (here in Jamaica) woke to light to moderate showers this morning, but it was pretty heavy in the eastern tip of the island..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


some one say rocket fuel

holy rocket fuel!
Quoting superpete:
Stormpetrol..was there much wave action coming into the C.C. area when you were there?


About 20 minutes ago!
BTW...hi everyone, just popping in to check on the latest. Lots simmering out there.....pots getting ready to boil looks like.
Afternoon NWS of Brownsville Discussion:

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."
1342. 19N81W
shear is supposed to be dropping but none of the convection is wrapping around the low yet....its just an elongated area of low pressure which is good for the rain totals....its a nice break from the heat...`
Quoting stormpetrol:


Photo I just took, South Sound, Grand Cayman. Hope it shows.

I like the lighting, makes the photo look dramatic, despite the stormy skies and seas I still wish I was there!
looks like 95L is well on its way of becomeing a STS or TS later today
Quoting luvtogolf:


According to the NHC marine discussion, the 1008 low expected to move west across.Belize and the Yucatan into the BOC.

not going to happen
Quoting stormpetrol:


Photo I just took, South Sound, Grand Cayman. Hope it shows.
BTW Whats the highest elevation on Grand Cayman?
Quoting stormpetrol:


About 20 minutes ago!
You posted the 2 pics just as I asked you..looks nice...waves will pick up more by this time tomorrow
1349. duranta
Anyone have any info on Typhoon Guchol endangering the Reactor 4 area of Fukishima?
Good afternoon y'all! :)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Afternoon NWS of Brownsville Discussion:

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."


Ridge over TX and one over Bermuda while a weakness developes over the eastern Gulf in between the 2 ridges.
Quoting 19N81W:
shear is supposed to be dropping but none of the convection is wrapping around the low yet....its just an elongated area of low pressure which is good for the rain totals....its a nice break from the heat...`


Low is starting to become more define with a develop circulation which is broad.
1353. K8eCane
Models sure did some shifting since this weekend. I wish they would make up my mind
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very close to getting a name IMO.
1355. Grothar
Quoting gordydunnot:
Weather98 I was just trying to give the man a break as it was a presystem, hence junior. I should have know that comment wouldn't get past this group. Sorry Grothar I tried.


LOL. No problema, gordy!
Still has a ways to go
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon y'all! :)


What the heck? Where did my profile picture go??
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Afternoon NWS of Brownsville Discussion:

"DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/CMC AND ECMWF ARISE FRIDAY
ONWARD WITH GFS/ECMWF AGREEING MORE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BLOCKING MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS AND
THE NAM STRETCHING THIS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOT MORE WITH POPS. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD."


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not going to happen


Exactly, now that the highs are going to split it would not make sense for the low to head west into the High over the Central US. Thus forcing the W caribbean disturbance north into the Eastern gulf.
Quoting K8eCane:
Models sure did some shifting since this weekend. I wish they would make up my mind
Yes....Dance of the hurricane models....LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



TS or STS 95L looks good
Quoting NakedSwirl:
Still has a ways to go
Did you come up with your user name after 92L back in may or Jose?.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Yeah the absence of the Upper Low east of FL is forcing the ridge to split into 2 different highs with one over TX and the other over Bermuda.
1364. hydrus
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Monsoonal systems are hard to pin down. We may see nothing but heavy rains across the SE US or we could have a hurricane per the GGEM model.


That is the scenario I am the most concerned about. Some areas in the panhandle will flood quickly and have not fully recovered from the recent heavy rain event. This could be serious trouble for some folks.
this show that 1008mb low going in too MX


95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debby by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.






Convection is weakening, but has expanded in coverage and organization. I think this is due to it becoming separated from the front and transitioning to tropical, similar to what happened with Beryl. Banding is also becoming apparent on the south and east sides of the system as well.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debbie by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.




well see i think we are well on are well too 21 name storms if we dont get a EL nino later this summer or fall
One can only imagine seeing triple digit heat out of this in the Central Great Plains next week...

click to enlarge
1370. nigel20
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
95L:



Caribbean AOI:



Chris and Debby by the end of the weekend??! 4 storms by the end of June would be pretty remarkable.

Agreed.
1371. Tygor
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Nah it's okay, we got 0.02" last night. We're good for the rest of the summer.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Exactly, now that the highs are going to split it would not make sense for the low to head west into the High over the Central US. Thus forcing the W caribbean disturbance north into the Eastern gulf.

right we are on the same pace good

now the low is located somewhere around
15.5N 81.0W
1373. Grothar
Quoting Tygor:


Nah it's okay, we got 0.02" last night. We're good for the rest of the summer.
I was so happy to hear rain outside my window this morning.We haven't been getting as much as we need.
Hey anything going on around Texas coast?I think I see some spin or am I just seeing things?Could be my eyes are playing tricks on me, age might have something to do with it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Tygor:


Nah it's okay, we got 0.02" last night. We're good for the rest of the summer.


Lol. At least we have a sense of humor about it!
Quoting Tazmanian:




well see i think we are well on are well too 21 name storms if we dont get a EL nino later this summer or fall


I can see us getting 14 or 15, due to number inflation caused by the early storms if nothing else, but I'd be pretty shocked to see numbers as high as 21.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

right we are on the same pace good

now the low is located somewhere around
15.5N 81.0W


Ok so that confirms that the low in the GOH is just a mid-level spin.
1380. hydrus
48 hours,84 hours.84 hour Surfc Precipitable Water
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not going to happen


Why not? High pressure to the north. It is a common path for June.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Several Texans reaching for anti-depressants


Already there.
1383. zillaTX
Local weather says nothing for Texas where rain is concerned. Sure hope he's wrong!
1384. MoeWest
The Haitians are in for a wet night.