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Damage in the Philippines from Typhoon Cimaron not as severe as expected; quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2006

Typhoon Cimaron is slowly intensifying over the South China Sea as it heads towards an expected landfall Friday in China. Cimaron made landfall on the northern Philippine island of Luzon Sunday as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, disaster officials called the destruction wrought by Cimaron as "minimal" compared to the destruction of devastating Typhoon Xangsane, which hit Luzon on September 27 as a Category 4 storm. Xangsane killed 218 in the Philippines, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. Xangsane went on to deliver a serious blow to Vietnam as a Category 2 typhoon, killing 70. Cimaron is expected to weaken due to wind shear and entrainment of dry air off the coast of China as it approaches land later this week.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Cimaron at 0540 GMT Oct 29 2006, in an image taken by the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar instrument. This instrument is able to see details as small as 6km across, and was the only microwave sensor that saw these incredibly tightly packed concentric eyewalls separated by only a few kilometers. Cimaron had one of the most remarkable intensification spurts on record--it went from a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 160-180 mph winds in just 48 hours. The pressure dropped an estimated 118 mb in that time period! Like Hurricane Wilma of 2005, Cimaron had a very tight inner core with a small eye, which is typical of storms that perform freakish feats of rapid intensification.

The Atlantic
Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean, and we will have to keep an eye on this region for tropical development. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds were in the 20-30 mph range southwest of Jamaica at 6:03am EST this morning, but there was no evidence of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a low 10 knots over the region, and is expected to remain low over the next several days. No computer models are calling for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this week, and I am not expecting anything to form in the Atlantic the rest of the year.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

Hawaii
The weak tropical disturbance near 10N 175W, about 1500 miles southwest of Hawaii, has dissipated and is no longer a threat.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

No computer models are calling for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this week, and I am not expecting anything to form in the Atlantic the rest of the year.


How did I know he would say that?
Thanks for the Good news all around Dr. Masters....
Hey Rand..you hear a large woman Singing?..LOL
Yeah, Pat.....hope it just gets louder!
My Spiderman Suit needs alil refitting...
Give the Blog entry I worked up a look see randrewl..One sobering pic outta 3..and a Great Story .
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I think he could of said that on October 1!..LOL
The forecast for Typhoon Cimaron is incorrect. Cimaron is expected to make landfall in Macau, according to JTWC.

JTWC - Cimaron forecast
[Image too blurry]
Here's one that's not so blurry(from the navy site) has it headed for Hong Kong.
It makes me wonder if now is the time to review some of the predictions for this hurricane season. I also wonder if our hero Joe Bastardi (I know I would have had to change my name) will include this major loss in his list of wins. I suspect his ego could not stand it.

joe predicts
Joe B was the first to back off on his number this yr. El nino back in July. Give him credit for that.
That shear has it making a RIGHT Turn Clyde ..big time as a much weaker,weaker system...
Not Joes best pic..fo sho..LOL
More info to support the statement, "Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean, and we will have to keep an eye on this region for tropical development"

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81/82W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT
TIMES. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THAT
SHOULD MOVE NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
UNDER AN ELY SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WEST OF 72W. AN
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW LOCATED
ALONG 81/82W. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 16N.

$$
GR
The GFSx showing a lil blip..then racing NNe and bothering no one...Link
Some data for the 1:05pm TWDAT

12Z furface analysis
A stunning REDUX by a friend who worked on the MNF production...Posted October 27th this Month.. soundtrack from Studio rehersal....Link
Looks like the center will collide with Cuba and poof
Hi everyone

It is very nasty here now with rain, E winds of 17MPH and a pressure of 1009.

extremely dark outside. Not a good day for the cruise visitors in port today !
wind direction at this buoy from the WSW means a surface low to its N
Link
the Kmanislander ports webcam..as posted by same last night..Link
A wet day indeed..Link
Our Port Truck container Terminal Kman..Live feed...Nicer day,,too...Link
When it moves north it also contends with a serious high pressure front. Moves between the 2 areas...



72 hour surface forecast
Everyone knows I am not the biggest Joe B fan, but if you look at his areas he did do pretty good!..LOL He had S. Florida and North Carolina!
JoeB really could use a makover in that picture. Maybe even the "what not to wear" show. Stacey?
Wow, considering the way many structures are built in the Philippines nice to hear only minimal damage from Cat 5/180 mph winds.
Is the hurricane season officially over tomorrow?
OFFICIALLY..over November 31
33. Inyo
predicting that south florida has a high risk of hurricanes is kind of like predicting rain in Seattle. He might as well have painted 'very' low on the hurricane map in Montana.
This is from a 19 Oct 2006 Reuters interview with Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center director said he could not pronounce the 2006 season definitively over before the end of November. He recalled that in 1984, also an El Nino year, Hurricane Lili formed in December and lasted until Christmas Eve.

"So it's still not over. But I would think the message here is the last thing we want to do is start forgetting about hurricanes now," he said.
full article

Or in the words of other great and wise Americans

"The opera ain't over until the fat lady sings." Dan Cook, San Antonio sports writer/broadcaster.

"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra, N.Y. Yankees Hall of Famer.
Being a small core storm ..The Cimaron impact occured in mostly Rural rice farmland. The Core winds were only around 25 miles on either side of the center..this prevented a Much wider swath of destruction..showing that size..does matter. A bigger, but weaker, slower moving storm Like Xangsene, does much more damage..in comparison..and the relatively fast forward speed of Cimaron,..also kept the Flooding rain totals..much lower.
The Retired Max Mayfield..enjoying a day in the Atlantic...Link
37. 0741
i donot trust joe B he think he know hurricane better and everyone else to me he suck. how was weather last night KMAN?
That is a nice size Permit.
Hi Pat,
Sorry I had to step away for a bit
Apart from the low near to our SW the cloud field down around 14N80W also looks like something could try to get going there. This time of yr with broad surface low pressure in the NW Caribbean anything is possible
kman I looked at the QuikSCAT and I was scratching my head. MWD/WDIR ... you had me going for a while, lol.
Lowercal

the fat lady may be tuning up but I don't think she should start singing just yet LOL
42. 0741
kman how was weather last night?
we shall watch it Kman...And yes ,Max is a Big Fishing buff...
There is a definite surface low near us yet the QS pass does not show it.
What does that tell you ?
0741

much like today
on and off heavy showers seperated by an ongoing drizzle with a very low cloud base. Rolling swells in the harbour outside my office window
That there isnt a closed low.
The fat lady sung almost a month ago.
48. 0741
KMAN do it look like you tropical wave or some thing strong like tropical system
weatherguy

exactly !
but closed lows start out as surface lows and that is why we should never focus too closely on a QS pass to determine the POTENTIAL for development
0741

the weather here now is typically what we would see for about three days before any development would really get going this time of year. If it hangs around there may be a chance for something but systems forming on the tail end of an old front are notoriously slow to organise
51. 0741
thanks for that respond to my question
HI GUYS IM ABOUT TO LOG OFF I JUST LOGGED ON QUICK TO LET YOU KNOW THAT THE 12UTC GFS DEVELOPS A NICE LOW PRESSURE A FEW MILES EAST OF S FLORIDA ON THURSDAY FROM THE BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE CARRIBEAN!
I am not really surprised at the lack of damage in the Philippines; they were struck by the SECOND MOST INTENSE storm in the world in 1998 (tied with a few other storms) at peak intensity. Link
SEE YA THIS AFTERNOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
55. 0741
we getting alot rain here in miami last night and this morning their saying people going out for halloween are going get wet
I go strickly with the QS in the beginning, if I dont see a closed low, nothing is gonna happen. Also pressure tendencies in the area.
kman

Wind Direction (WDIR)
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR)
Buoy 42057

but I agree there is potential
Probabilities continute to rise in the area.
kman ~ on your bouy there, the only WSW I see there is on Wave direction. Wind direction is more to the left. The wind has been E for 6hrs now. Interesting 1900 yesterday The sudden shift from SE to NW til it's switch back around to the east in the last 6hrs.

Got a few 1006mb readings off of ships in the are, the last 6 hours.
The GFSx shows alil Blip..then POOF!,,off to the NNe..Link
lowercal

the readings at that buoy confirm a surface low to the N of it. Gotta run for lunch now
this other buoy closer to the Yucatan has NE winds.
The surface low is between the two buoys
sorry, forgot to post the link
The low is to the SE of this buoy and to the NW of the other


Link
my best guess for the low would be near 19N 83W

out for lunch now
kman

Enjoy your lunch. I understand what you are telling me. Take another look at
NDBC - Station 42057
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH
OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THE 12Z POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTERPRETATION ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

MT
MT provides no assumptions about the wave but does confirm location by interpretation analysis.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS PUSHING ITS WAY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NOW IS EAST OF
73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH
OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THE 12Z POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTERPRETATION ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS.
SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE DID NOT APPEAR
TO BE OVER MAINLAND CENTRAL AMERICA BASED ON THE SURFACE ISOBARIC
ANALYSIS AT 31/1200 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N88W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 8N20W 8N30W 8N40W 7N45W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N4W 4N20W 7N33W TO 10N...AND
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS
FLORIDA...BEYOND 31N82W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND BEYOND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS THE NEXT ONE
TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA EAST
OF 73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE
STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
17N78W SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 17N78W INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE
81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ACROSS FLORIDA AND BEYOND 31N82W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N71W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 69W NORTH OF 20N. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES UNTIL THE BASE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS NEAR 31N54W. THIS TROUGH GOES
FROM 31N54W BEYOND 37N50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 25N60W TO 25N70W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN THE 37N50W 31N54W TROUGH AND 30W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N27W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS 34N27W CENTER TO 27N25W TO 20N29W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N27W. A COLD FRONT COMES OUT OF THIS LOW CENTER...NORTH OF
31N...AND RE-APPEARS THROUGH 32N20W 24N23W 20N30W. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N24W 27N27W AND 27N36W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 11W AND 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

$$
MT
1745pm UTC
20N 83W T1.0/1.0 -- 93L
guess Sky got there B4 i did
So 93L has been resurected by NOAA. Hasn't made a reappearance with the NAVY yet.
It was a Halloween jinx.
The 12Z nogaps model overlay of the surface winds on NexSat.
there is an exposed swirl at 20/83
try the zoom on high
Link
So 93L has been resurected by NOAA. Hasn't made a reappearance with the NAVY yet.

NAVY has resurected the invest now also
Looks like the BAMMD has a little post Wilma Depression going on, lol.
Navy Gets Bored too..LOL
hmmmmmm 93L gos in to FL

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



I'm not getting excited.
bout time you guys showed up.
well I have been calling for 94L since Sunday night but I see they have resurrected 93L
As Shakespeare once said " whats in a name ? "
The season's over Saddle. I heard somebody say that a month ago.
But Dr. M did say nothing would happen......
Afternoon everyone
Hey Crab.
Quote from the Doctor:

No computer models are calling for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this week, and I am not expecting anything to form in the Atlantic the rest of the year.
Seems 93L just keeps showing up.lol
I believe Dr. Masters was referring to the Atlantic only. Higher in the paragraph he says we will have to keep an eye on the carrib for development.
North gulf waters in the 50s be very hard pressed to allow anything.
What crab - I just saw this morning that the water temps in Panama City is 73.
The air isn't even that cold much yet.
59 at the harbor (according to Garmin) I was in the boat in the bay this am counting pileings to be removed from old hwy 90 bridge.
Saddle, Panama City is a lot closer to the continental shelf than here we have a lot more shallow water which heats and cools faster than the deeper areas.
Score one for Pulse.....nice to see someone paying attention.
93L has that dual circulation thing going on again, lol.
Ok all have a good day as bad as I dont want to I must get back to working on the updates to the CEMP
i am haveung a Halloween party 2 night on my blog as well evere one is welcome to join if they want to
Still seems pretty cold crab - I don't see it here Link
To thoughs who have not seen my updated blog yet. Come one come all!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THE GFS SEEMS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEED BACK WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION
ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH FORMING FROM THE YUCATAN TO A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
WHICH THEN WRAPS INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF FLORIDA BY
THURSDAY EVENING.
hello guys i am back whats up?
I see 93L could develop into something and come in S. Florida.
Maybe
101. 882MB
HEY DRAKOEN HOW U DOIN IM LEAVIN ALREADY. I HAVE SOME FUN STUFF TO DO TODAY HALLOWEEN. WELL 93L SURE IS LOOKING GOOD A LITTLE SHEAR BUT IT COULD STILL DEVELOP BYE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
102. MTJax
Seems MTJax said something last week about a west coast FL tropical storm on Nov 6???
actually I think that there is probably more chance of a threat coming out of what is going on down near 14N 80W than from 93L.
Once 93L slides to the NW that may open the door for the Southern Caribbean to spin up something.
93L ran out out of sea room once it passed Haiti
1009 mb S of Jamaica so the whole area has relatively low pressures, d low shear and still lots of warm water
Link
can i get some model forecast on the wave in the Caribean and some buoy information.
Drakoen...Go to Stormjunkie.com. All the links are there.
Drakoen

link to buoys
Link
West - it's going west...I mean east...east.
saddlegait....Exactly which direction?
west or east or westeast....or something! Sorry - had to throw that in. I would be interested to see if that little pink GFDL line ever develops anything. That's the one you guys have told me all year long to watch.
As of the 18z run the XTRP has it heading West. Gfdl is not interested still.
Well, I have it on good authority (I think YOU told me, know Nash did and then there's a few others) that the GFDL is the best predictor and to be concerned with any other model is simply wishcasting - I used the word wishcasting and GFDL in the same posts - for a slow summer, I learned a few things.
Man..Im dizzy LOL..Whats the buzz?
I still think the uppper level winds are unfavorable for development. If anything tries to go into the GOM in will get destroyed if it goes too south in the Caribean it will get torn apart as well.
Where is Jo? That pesky BAMD is rolling it right over Hobe Sound.
Patrap - some blob just won't go away...natives are getting restless.
Heres the GFSx showing the Carr Thingee racing NNE..Link
Very good Saddle. West...wishcasting...GFDL. We're cookin now!
When watching a possible Trend..best to observe the Thingee..and not the Models..and if ya going to drive with them..youll need the Keys..Link
Pat...you're just no fun today.
Now..Ive got a Costume to stretch into...LOL..and a Pumpkinn to Carve?, mutilate...
Don't cut your thingee!
Man Rand ..LOL..i spent 2 hours breaking down my Firewall..and a good wuba member told me just to log out and get a costume..I feeling rather..Duh!..da Duh!
Wife just came back from getting a cortisone injection in her Shoulder..and I best tend to her..NOW!..
It's not too hard.....just remember who you are.
THE gfs is predicting soemthing pretty serious crossing FL.
Rand - the GFS - did you give us that one. And how do you know how serious the prediction is?
Is there a low pressure near the convection or associated with it?
Well I said I thought any chance for a tropical storm to landfall in the US was very, very slim, like take that sigh~ this morning~ flaunting shear maps & all. I've obviously angered the 'cane gods cause I got the LBARS running over my house this afternoon.
130. MTJax
Guess that answers the questions. Skye did it
re: Randrewl at 8:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2006.

Where is Jo? That pesky BAMD is rolling it right over Hobe Sound."

look, i'm telling you right now the only bam thing i want to hear from you is a bam bub-lite jo
132. MTJax
Hey BAMM loops it. Sound familiar? I believe every storm with loops this year seemed to die.
Can anyone tell me where I can find a model prediction chart for 93L?
134. MTJax
try this one link

So do the experts here rely on the deep layer or shallow layer for guidance? They are 180 degrees out with the medium looping
Thank you very much MTJax, that helps a lot. I hadnt seen that model forecast chart before. I had only seen the invest model forecasts Dr. M regularly posts on his blogs. Wonder where those come from.
136. MTJax
His images are wunderground generated.

The RANDREW image above can be found at this location
Thanks again MTJax!!