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Dakotas blizzard adds to extreme spring flooding risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 AM GMT on February 21, 2011

Heavy snows in excess of six inches have piled up over much of South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota today, with a storm maximum of 16 inches reported at Midland, South Dakota. This is bad news for residents in flood-prone areas of the Upper Midwest, as the new storm has added more than another half inch of melted rainfall equivalent to a snowpack that already had a record water content. When all that snow melts in late March, we can expect another spring of major and possibly record flooding for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, or the Upper Mississippi River north of St. Louis, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Their February Spring Flood Outlook released last week warned: "Heavy autumn rains and above average water content in the snow pack throughout the North Central U.S. have produced a high risk of moderate and major flooding for the Spring of 2011. Areas of greatest concern include the Red River of the North in North Dakota and Minnesota, Devils Lake in North Dakota, the James River and Big Sioux River in South Dakota, and areas along the Upper Mississippi River including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.

Heavy late summer and autumn precipitation (twice the normal amount since October in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota) have soils saturated and streams running high before the winter freeze-up. Another winter of above average snowfall has added water to the snow pack on top of the frozen saturated soils in the North Central US. NWS models show this snowpack containing a water content ranked in the 90 to 100 percentile when compared to a 60 year average. These factors have combined to create some of the highest soil moisture contents of the last century. "



Figure 1. North Central U.S. flood risk. Image credit: NWS. The outlook will be updated on February 24, and a final outlook issued March 17.

There is a huge amount of snow on the ground in North Dakota along the tributaries of the Red River, thanks to fall precipitation that was 150% - 300% of normal, and winter snows that have dumped up to 400% more precipitation than usual. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 4 - 5 inches of rain. If heavy rains occur at the same time that the snow melts, there is the potential for the greatest flood in history to affect the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, the largest and third largest cities in North Dakota. NWS is giving a 20% chance that Fargo will see its greatest flood in history, and a 10% chance for Grand Forks.

The situation is similar in Minnesota, which has received about double its normal precipitation over the past 3 to 4 months. Snow depths are generally around 18 inches in the Upper Mississippi watershed, with a high water content. If one were to melt this snow, it would amount to 3.5 - 5.5 inches of rain, which ranks among the wettest snow packs in the 60-year record. NWS is giving a 15% chance that St. Paul will see its highest flood in history this spring.

In South Dakota, heavy snows this winter have also left a snowpack with a high water content, and NWS is predicting a 30% chance that the the James River at Huron, SD and the Big Sioux River at Brookings, SD will reach their highest flood heights in history.


Figure 2. The snow water equivalent of the Upper Midwest's snowpack as of February 18, 2011. Large sections of Minnesota and North Dakota have the equivalent of 3.9 - 5.9 inches of rain (purple colors) stored in their snowpack. Image credit: NWS/NOHRSC.

When will all this flooding occur? Generally, late March through mid-April is the time when the big spring melt occurs. The record 2009 Red River flood peaked on March 28 in Fargo. The great 1997 Red River flood that devastated Grand Forks, causing $3.5 billion in damage, crested on April 18. St. Paul's greatest flood in history crested on April 19, 1965.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters
Blinding snowstorm hits Detroit area
Blinding snowstorm hits Detroit area
The Detroit area was hit with a blinding snowstorm this afternoon and evening, with near zero visibility and thunder/lightning, as the snowfall piles up quickly and deeply.

Flood Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A 6.5 earthquake is 10x greater than a 5.5...correct?
Quoting Grothar:



WELLLLLLL! A very good analysis and quite accurate. If I may add just one little bit to that. Not all of the activity is directly on the New Madrid fault, or any know arm of it. While it is not unusual to have some clusters activity there, it is possible there is an unknown fault. They find them all the time. Aqua was quite correct in the statement of not expecting anything higher than a 4.6, which is well within the parameter of what is expected. However, they do expect that at anytime, the possibility exists of a 6.5 or higher to strike the area. This of course is speculation based upon the frequency of past events.

(Gobi desert) LOL
Good afternoon Gro..All this talk about earthquakes is interesting. About a week ago, the experts warned of unusually high activity underneath Yellowstone National Park. They say it is overdue for an eruption and that it is a Super Volcano.
Quoting Grothar:


If you didn't nap so much in the afternoon, you would be able to read more. (How you doing Canes?)


Doing well, how about you?
Quoting hydrus:
I never thought there would be a connection with solar activity and seismic activity..Now that I give the idea some thought, it seems possible.

Yea, me either, but it does make sense, kinda...I have no idea how to explain it.

But it has been shown there is a link. Correlation =/= Causation, but that doesn't mean that Solar activity isn't the cause, that just means that you have to explain it.

only problem right now is, idk if anyone can explain it.

So can anyone on this blog explain it (it being how solar activity leads to greater tectonic plate activity)?
Quoting aquak9:
I agree, solar is involved, but there's more to it than that.


Well yea, obviously, earthquakes don't just happen when the sun decides to flare up.
Quoting aquak9:


oh...because of the weight of all the melting snow, north of st louis...

all that water weight's gotta go somewhere...just cause we humans have twisted up the mississippi worse than grothar's guts after beer and deviled eggs- well, time will tell, the mississippi will go where it wishes. And the weight will be a lot this year- just READ doc's blog, above.


Ahhh ok, thank you, hate to admit I havent read doc's blog...Im ashamed :( Will now !
grothar (and I do respect you very much) God forbid I ever hafta see the effect of a 6.5 in new madrid.

I think we are starting to realize that the depth may play a greater role than the mag in some cases.
Quoting TomTaylor:

Yea, me either, but it does make sense, kinda...I have no idea how to explain it.

But it has been shown there is a link. Correlation =/= Causation, but that doesn't mean that Solar activity isn't the cause, that just means that you have to explain it.

only problem right now is, idk if anyone can explain it.

So can anyone on this blog explain it (it being how solar activity leads to greater tectonic plate activity)?


Well yea, obviously, earthquakes don't just happen when the sun decides to flare up.
Could it be like a microwave burst of radiation that causes the earth to swell, then shrink, causing the slip? Kinda far fetched since we are all on this earth and we don't see an effect from solar flares. But maybe it is the nutrinos
Quoting aquak9:
grothar (and I do respect you very much) God forbid I ever hafta see the effect of a 6.5 in new madrid.

I think we are starting to realize that the depth may play a greater role than the mag in some cases.


Yes, you are correct. This past horrible event in New Zealand is evident of that. A 6.5 would be catastrophic in that area. (And you know how I much I enjoy your blogs.)
507 thats interesting. I dont know though because statistically it seems to occur in low activity they are claiming.


Anyway ENSO conditions look to be optimal for hurricane occurrence by a few of the models and projections this coming season. Correct??
Quoting MrMixon:
Well, it's certainly not unheard-of to suggest that solar activity and tectonic activity on Earth are related, but I don't think any verifiable mechanism has been proven.  A quick search yielded at least a couple papers that examine the relationship:

Paper 1

and

Paper 2

Unfortunately, you have to pay for these so I haven't been able to read anything more than the abstracts.  Both papers look like statistical exercises and it seems that neither paper proposes any conclusive mechanism by which solar activity and earthquakes are linked (though the second paper speculates on a couple possible mechanisms).

So, what Rita says may have some truth to it, but I think it is irresponsible (and insensitive to our friends in NZ) to post flip, speculative statements and promotional posters for movies while the rest of us are attempting to understand a very serious situation in which many dozens (at least) have lost their lives.





I read the first paper, it talks about a correlation between solar activity and an increased seismic activity 1 year afterward. I highly doubt though that an influx of particles from the sun would do much to the plates of the Earth after such a time period; and the magnetic fields decay quickly with distance so it has nothing to do with the core of the Earth and the suns EM field.

What would seem more likely is that the suns cycle is dependent upon a similar cycle as earthquakes (most likely caused by tension from orbiting bodies).
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
A 6.5 earthquake is 10x greater than a 5.5...correct?


It is a little more complex than that. It is possible that a 6.5 could be more destructive in the Midwest or East than a 7.5 in the West. The reason being the amount of energy which passes through the underlying terrain. In the West, as in California, the underground is much more fractured, due to much more seismic activity. In the Midwest and East, much less fracturing. Therefore, an earthquake is usually felt over a greater distance and also leading to more damage. Thankfully, in the West, there are many more cracks to break up the energy from the epicenter and the effects are confined to a smaller area.
Quoting alfabob:


I read the first paper, it talks about a correlation between solar activity and an increased seismic activity 1 year afterward. I highly doubt though that an influx of particles from the sun would do much to the plates of the Earth after such a time period; and the magnetic fields decay quickly with distance so it has nothing to do with the core of the Earth and the suns EM field.

What would seem more likely is that the suns cycle is dependent upon a similar cycle as earthquakes (most likely caused by tension from orbiting bodies).
I was thinking maybe a solar storm could affect the Earths magnetic field, which might cause the molten iron under the crust and mantle to move or shift, causing a seismic disturbance of some kind. Just a thought..
Quoting JFLORIDA:
507 thats interesting. I dont know though because statistically it seems to occur in low activity they are claiming.


Anyway ENSO conditions look to be optimal for hurricane occurrence by a few of the models and projections this coming season. Correct??
Well they did say during a solar flare. But after reading back I did see where more earthquakes are likely on a minimum. I guess if we knew why the sun has it's highs and lows, then we would probably extract what happens to the earth. I just read toooooo much sci-fi.LOL BTW, spring has sprung in the keys. Hope it lasts.
Quoting hydrus:
I was thinking maybe a solar storm could affect the Earths magnetic field, which might cause the molten iron under the crust and mantle to move or shift, causing a seismic disturbance of some kind. Just a thought..

That's what I was thinking too. Solar storms definitely effect our magnetic field. And our magnetic field is caused by the molten iron under the crust and mantle.

So that was the only thing that made sense to me.
swelling due to microwave energy?

I just thought my clothes were shrinking!

you visit my blog gro? awwww....
Quoting Grothar:


It is a little more complex than that. It is possible that a 6.5 could be more destructive in the Midwest or East than a 7.5 in the West. The reason being the amount of energy which passes through the underlying terrain. In the West, as in California, the underground is much more fractured, due to much more seismic activity. In the Midwest and East, much less fracturing. Therefore, an earthquake is usually felt over a greater distance and also leading to more damage. Thankfully, in the West, there are many more cracks to break up the energy from the epicenter and the effects are confined to a smaller area.


A good explanation there Groathar....always so helpful :} You Get home soon and safely...
514 got to 81 here - forgot how hot that was. Spring here too I think - or really just for the day or two we have spring then summer.
Thankfully, in the West, there are many more cracks to break up the energy from the epicenter and the effects are confined to a smaller area.

oooo- thanks- that helped ME!
Quoting JFLORIDA:
507 thats interesting. I dont know though because statistically it seems to occur in low activity they are claiming.


Anyway ENSO conditions look to be optimal for hurricane occurrence by a few of the models and projections this coming season. Correct??


The most optimal ENSO for Atlantic hurricanes is falling off of an El Nino from the prior winter and crashing into neutral or weak La Nina during the summer. A weak La Nina throughout the summer this year would be the most favorable for hurricane activity, with a neutral signal being a step less favorable than that.

Here we are coming up out of a strong La Nina, and one thing to keep in mind is that 2nd-year La Nina seasons tend to see more U.S. landfalls than 1st-year seasons, even though 2nd-year La Ninas see less total numbers overall.
I still guess its going to go to strong El Nino - just by my prejudice of watching trends in the nino 1 and 2.

The models favor it slightly more but officially its weak la Nina or neutral like you say.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I still guess its going to go to strong El Nino - just by my prejudice of watching trends in the nino 1 and 2.

The models favor it slightly more but officially its weak la Nina or neutral like you say.


I thought it looked like a spike right into another El Nino too, which is why I looked back to see what happened before when Nino 1+2 warmed. It turns out La Nina doesn't always fall completely apart when the warm tongue shows itself in the east. My video from a few days ago investigates the matter.
GW my butt... its snowing again :(
Quoting Orcasystems:
GW my butt... its snowing again :(
79 degrees here in the Keys. Maybe if you moved south????
Earth's magnetic field is disturbed due to the highly energetic charged particles which are a solar storm. Either way technology isn't to the level where the core of large objects can be correctly modeled. So there really is no way to say something such as a stream of incoming charged particles can cause massive disturbances of the Earth's core.
Wow snow in Canada in February - who'd thought.

Oh I know climatologists.



Must be your butt.
New ECMWF February seasonal forecasts are out. The ENSO ensembles still show a tendency to flatten out this summer and not shoot up into an El Nino, stalling out in the cool neutral zone by the peak of the hurricane season, hinting at a return to La Nina conditions next winter, but it's hard to tell yet.

Quoting TomTaylor:

That's what I was thinking too. Solar storms definitely effect our magnetic field. And our magnetic field is caused by the molten iron under the crust and mantle.

So that was the only thing that made sense to me.
Ah yes, great minds think alike...;)
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Wow snow in Canada in February - who'd thought.

Oh I know climatologists.



Must be your butt.


Victoria is different.. can't you tell .. I am from here :)

Total annual precipitation is just 608 mm (23.9 in) at the Gonzales weather station in Victoria, contrasted to nearby Seattle, (137 km/85 mi away to the southeast), with 970 mm (38.2 in) of rainfall, or Vancouver, 100 km (62 mi) away, with 1,219 mm (48 in) of rainfall. Perhaps even more dramatic is the difference in rainfalls on Vancouver Island. Port Renfrew, just 80 km from Victoria on the wet southwest coast of Vancouver Island receives 3,671 mm (144.5 in). Even the Victoria Airport, 25 km (16 mi) north of the city, receives about 45 per cent more precipitation than the city proper. One of the most striking features of Victoria's climate is the distinct dry and rainy seasons. Nearly two thirds of the annual precipitation falls during the four wettest months, November to February. Precipitation in December, the wettest month (109 mm/4.3 in) is nearly eight times as high as in July, the driest month (14 mm/0.55 in). During the summer months, Victoria is the driest major city in Canada.

Victoria averages just 26 cm (10.2 in) of snow annually, or about half that of Vancouver. Every few decades, Victoria receives very large snowfalls, including the more than 100 cm (39.4 in) of snow that fell in December 1996. On the other hand, roughly one third of winters will see virtually no snow, with less than 5 cm (1.97 in) falling during the entire season. When snow does fall, it rarely lasts long on the ground. Victoria averages just 2–3 days per year with at least 5 cm (1.97 in) of snow on the ground.

The rain shadow effect of the Washington Olympic Mountains to the south also means that Victoria gets more sunshine than surrounding areas.[citation needed] With 2,223 hours of sun annually, Victoria is one of the sunniest places in British Columbia, and gets more sunshine than most other cities in Canada except those in the southern Prairies.
Snow in SF today perhaps. Snow events in Fla. Sorry Im not surprised by a coastal Canada snow evet even if it is a rain forest.

Anomalous storms are the rule this season.





List of snow events in Florida2010s (8 Snow Events, 7 Snow Events in One Year)


thats more in one year than in any other decade.
Quoting alfabob:
Earth's magnetic field is disturbed due to the highly energetic charged particles which are a solar storm. Either way technology isn't to the level where the core of large objects can be correctly modeled. So there really is no way to say something such as a stream of incoming charged particles can cause massive disturbances of the Earth's core.


Yea, it really doesn't make much sense how it would work, but it's the only thing that makes most sense.

Right now, I'm convinced solar activity does play some role on our tectonic activity. How significant of an effect? Who knows, but here has obviously been shown to be a correlation, now we just need the causation.
HUh?

He is looking for similarly shaped features on the sea floor that match the Solar Coronal plasma features to predict earthquakes?
It seems a bit like palmistry or phrenology.
The proximity and magnitude to New Zeland looked good, then he went on to list numerous other active faults across the globe that are misses. hummm.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Wow snow in Canada in February - who'd thought.

Oh I know climatologists.



Must be your butt.


ahaha
Quoting Levi32:
New ECMWF February seasonal forecasts are out. The ENSO ensembles still show a tendency to flatten out this summer and not shoot up into an El Nino, stalling out in the cool neutral zone by the peak of the hurricane season, hinting at a return to La Nina conditions next winter, but it's hard to tell yet.




You sure those graphs are reliable? I think they may be done by meteorologists or climatologists. You can't always trust those lines.
Quoting Orcasystems:
GW my butt... its snowing again :(
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahhahahahahaha
Quoting Grothar:



You sure those graphs are reliable? I think they may be done by meteorologists or climatologists. You can't always trust those lines.


Nothing in the world can be 100% trusted. Some degree of trust exists for every parcel of information. Here, I trust that the ECMWF is presenting their model runs for ENSO prediction as the actual output that the models gave.

Mistrust is usually generated by a potential motive for delivering misinformation that comes to light. In terms of climate debate, it is unlikely that there is any motive to fabricate anything regarding ENSO model predictions, as that would go against the current thinking that ENSO cycles have little to do with century-scale climate variability.
back from Juno Beach.... weather included a lot of SQUAWK!!!!!!!
Quoting NRAamy:
back from Juno Beach.... weather included a lot of SQUAWK!!!!!!!


YO!
Yo Gro!!!!!

:)

Quoting Grothar:


It is a little more complex than that. It is possible that a 6.5 could be more destructive in the Midwest or East than a 7.5 in the West. The reason being the amount of energy which passes through the underlying terrain. In the West, as in California, the underground is much more fractured, due to much more seismic activity. In the Midwest and East, much less fracturing. Therefore, an earthquake is usually felt over a greater distance and also leading to more damage. Thankfully, in the West, there are many more cracks to break up the energy from the epicenter and the effects are confined to a smaller area.

Don't forget, the more solid the ground is, the less movement there will be, Christchurch is build not far from the Pacific and has a sandy base. The September quake was situated in solid rock and was 10km's below. Yesterdays quake was on sandy ground and only 4km's down.

Currently there is 75 people dead, 300 missing, there is a group of 15 people trapped in the CTV(Canterbury Television)Building, they have been seen on CTV and they are alive.
There is specialist rescue units 2 from NSW, 1 Qld, a crews from Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, UK, USA. Aftershocks are still shaking the city.

If anyone want's me to set up my stream again let me know. the ABC NEws stream is still available.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Don't forget, the more solid the ground is, the less movement there will be, Christchurch is build not far from the Pacific and has a sandy base. The September quake was situated in solid rock and was 10km's below. Yesterdays quake was on sandy ground and only 4km's down.

Currently there is 75 people dead, 300 missing, there is a group of 15 people trapped in the CTV(Canterbury Television)Building, they have been seen on CTV and they are alive.
There is specialist rescue units 2 from NSW, 1 Qld, a crews from Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, UK, USA. Aftershocks are still shaking the city.


I just read a "confirmed" toll of 114.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co, yesterday's quake is expected to be the world's costliest insured disaster since 2008's Hurricane Ike.
542. DDR
Picked up another inch of rain today,now 4 inches have fallen in 24 hours,won't be surprised to see some degree of flooding by tomorrow.I got double the monthly average in one day for the second time for the month.

Trinidad and Tobago radar
Link
Quoting DDR:
Picked up another inch of rain today,now 4 inches have fallen in 24 hours,won't be surprised to see some degree of flooding by tomorrow.I got double the monthly average in one day for the second time for the month.

Trinidad and Tobago radar
Link


You might want to read up on this
Plans
For those of you looking forward to the Atlantic hurricane season...

1 hr IR Loop over Africa

make avatar
Make avatar


...that wave train be a-comin
545. DDR
lol!
I'd give that to pottery,i live on hill.
Quoting Neapolitan:


I just read a "confirmed" toll of 114.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co, yesterday's quake is expected to be the world's costliest insured disaster since 2008's Hurricane Ike.

New Zealand Prime Minister has just held a press conference, He said only 75 deaths, I would go with his figures and not a news paper. Don't know where that news report got 114 from.
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those of you looking forward to the Atlantic hurricane season...

1 hr IR Loop over Africa

make avatar
Make avatar


...that wave train be a-comin
the ITCZ is still south of the EQ
Quoting AussieStorm:
the ITCZ is still south of the EQ

Yea, whatever, this same loop showed nothing over west africa two weeks ago...were making progress
Quoting DDR:
lol!
I'd give that to pottery,i live on hill.


Pottery said something about building a water slide to get into town, he got a new place on the mountain in the trees.
Quoting TomTaylor:

Yea, whatever, this same loop showed nothing over west africa two weeks ago...were making progress

come on, it's still winter there yet your saying it's looking better, wait till they get over water and see what happens, they'll disapate. Just afternoon storms.
Quoting AussieStorm:

come on, it's still winter there yet your saying it's looking better, wait till they get over water and see what happens, they'll disapate. Just afternoon storms.

What did you think I thought they would turn into cat 5 hurricanes?

LOL, you must be kidding yourself.

I was just pointing out that the season's are changing and thunderstorms are starting to form off west africa again. It's significant because there haven't been any significant thunderstorms in that area for about the last 3 months.

I know the real wave train that actually forms hurricanes doesn't start until around July/August time.
Quoting TomTaylor:

What did you think they would turn into cat 5 hurricanes?

LOL, you must be kidding yourself.

I was just pointing out that the season's are changing and thunderstorms are starting to form off west africa again.

I know the real wave train that actually forms hurricanes doesn't start until around July/August time.

I have been around long enough to know they will amount to zilch. Never said or thought they would become cat 5's. lol
553. DDR
There's no water slide but there's a ferry lol
Seriously,sounds like my kind of place!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery said something about building a water slide to get into town, he got a new place on the mountain in the trees.
talking about a place in the trees i checked out the cams they look good nice and clear 7 out of eight are working

by the way u need an underwater cam so i can watch the water freeze from below:)
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have been around long enough to know they will amount to zilch. Never said or thought they would become cat 5's. lol

Yea, sorry, I edited that part to say, "What did you think I thought they would turn into cat 5 hurricanes?"

I too, know they amount to nothing...they will dissipate in a few hours. I was only showing people that seasons are changing.

models indicate march roars in like a lion looks like a biggie coming up

Here's the loop again for those who missed it:


make avatar
Make avatar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
talking about a place in the trees i checked out the cams they look good nice and clear 7 out of eight are working

by the way u need an underwater cam so i can watch the water freeze from below:)


7 out of 8?
Did you have it set to display the full range (9 cam setting)
Boy did they ever change our week long forecast... went from Spring back to Darkest Winter in a hurry:(
Quoting Orcasystems:


7 out of 8?
Did you have it set to display the full rage (9 cam setting)
Boy did they ever change our week long forecast... went from Spring back to Darkest Winter in a hurry:(
i will go back try again it loaded kinda slow first time had to download active x ie add on but i will check again give me a minute

o by the way remember winter started at your place so it would only be right to end at your place:)
Tornado spawned by TC Carlos
got eight out of nine now last one bottom right not showing
Here is a link to ABC News 24(LIVE), no geo block
My last electric bill was $90! Those days will quickly be coming to an end.

For West Palm Beach:

564. flsky
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tornado spawned by TC Carlos

All I can say is, what idiots!
Geoffrey -
I don't even have AC since my move....
WEIRD coming from S. Fla
Quoting flsky:

All I can say is, what idiots!

Yeah, thought it was funny at first then wwas like aaaaarrrrrrrhhhhhhh
Animation of aftershocks since Sep

http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/
7 confirmed building where people are trapped
CTV building, 24 rescued, 7 fatalities 22+ still missing.
Pyne gould guinness building, 24 rescued, 7 people detected.
Christchurch Cathedral, 22 missing, 20 fatalities expected but the building is very dangerous and is off limits.
Christchurch Press Building, 4 rescued, 1 fatality, possibly more.
2 buses that were crushed by falling buildings, 6 fatalities.
Bakery in the heart of the city, 3 fatalities.
dashboard cowman! did you see me wave from the airplane?

:)
Thanks for sharing this.  Speaking as a geologist and professional map-maker, I think that's a very clever way to visualize seismograph data.  Would like to see this kind of thing available for all U.S. seismographs.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Animation of aftershocks since Sep

http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/

Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cowman! did you see me wave from the airplane?

:)


And the BIG smile shining out the window too. :)
Hurricane Elena inside the eye from the ground in 85 Gulfport,Biloxi Miss.











Quoting MrMixon:
Thanks for sharing this.  Speaking as a geologist and professional map-maker, I think that's a very clever way to visualize seismograph data.  Would like to see this kind of thing available for all U.S. seismographs.



YW
There's a name at the bottom:

Site concept and development: Paul Nicholls of the University of Canterbury's Digital Media Group (Christchurch, New Zealand)

Maybe you could contact them (although they might be a tad busy right now). I suspect this shouldn't be too difficult for a programmer that works with GIS type of stuff.
GeoffreyWPB,

Check your mail, something going on I would like you to have a look into.

Click for more
Quoting alfabob:


I read the first paper, it talks about a correlation between solar activity and an increased seismic activity 1 year afterward. I highly doubt though that an influx of particles from the sun would do much to the plates of the Earth after such a time period; and the magnetic fields decay quickly with distance so it has nothing to do with the core of the Earth and the suns EM field.

What would seem more likely is that the suns cycle is dependent upon a similar cycle as earthquakes (most likely caused by tension from orbiting bodies).


This really amazes me. AGW proponents are readily willing to admit that the sun could affect tectonic plates of the earth, but aren't willing to admit that sun cycles could be the primary drivers of world climate. How closed could one's mind be if you accept the fact that solar flares could cause earthquakes but not severely affect the weather? It is truly mind boggling.
.
Mmmm I know theirs no season for earthquakes,but It's like last year.The big ones always happen in the beginning of the year.Lol now a volcanoe is going to try and erupt!lol.Now is their is earthquake season,volcanoe season,tornado season,and hurricane season?.I know theirs 2 but.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm I know theirs no season for earthquakes,but It's like last year.The big ones always happen in the beginning of the year.Lol now a volcanoe is going to try and erupt!lol.Now is their is earthquake season,volcanoe season,tornado season,and hurricane season?.I know theirs 2 but.....


Then there is always this season

Quoting PcolaDan:


Then there is always this season

Season of the witch!.The monster goes RAWR!!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tornado spawned by TC Carlos


For these guys next trick, they're going to wait for a thunderstorm, go the highest point they can, tape their sensitive parts to a long metal pole, and wait for the awesome buzz.

Definitely Darwin award material right there.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Crisis in Libya Raises Fears of Skyrocketing Oil Prices Causing Pain at the Pump. We should of finished what we started in 1986.

The spike in oil prices is largely a a result of short term hysteria. Libya supplies two percent of the world supply, hardly a major issue what with the large inventories and excess capacity presently. The traders grab onto this stuff to try to make a quick buck and largely succeed.

Everyone trashes the Saudis for not putting more oil in the system when the price spiked up to $145 but the facts were there was plenty of oil in the pipeline just like there is now.
Quoting twincomanche:

The spike in oil prices is largely a a result of short term hysteria. Libya supplies two percent of the world supply, hardly a major issue what with the large inventories and excess capacity presently. The traders grab onto this stuff to try to make a quick buck and largely succeed.

Everyone trashes the Saudis for not putting more oil in the system when the price spiked up to $145 but the facts were there was plenty of oil in the pipeline just like there is now.


From Fox News...I copy and paste...You decide.
Quoting twincomanche:

The spike in oil prices is largely a a result of short term hysteria. Libya supplies two percent of the world supply, hardly a major issue what with the large inventories and excess capacity presently. The traders grab onto this stuff to try to make a quick buck and largely succeed.

Everyone trashes the Saudis for not putting more oil in the system when the price spiked up to $145 but the facts were there was plenty of oil in the pipeline just like there is now.


The price isn't reflecting Libya's output. The price is reflecting the general instability throughout the region that seems to be spreading and growing.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From Fox News...I copy and paste...You decide.

I have no idea what you are referring to. I made that post based on forty plus years in the petro chemical business. These are the real facts not something junked up from Fox News. If you don't think these are the facts, you need a reality check.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From Fox News...I copy and paste...You decide.


ROFL
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The price isn't reflecting Libya's output. The price is reflecting the general instability throughout the region that seems to be spreading and growing.


If you believe that then you don't understand the real situation. You understand the situation based on our silly news media that doesn't know much about reality in the oil industry.
Quoting twincomanche:

I have no idea what you are referring to. I made that post based on forty plus years in the petro chemical business. These are the real facts not something junked up from Fox News. If you don't think these are the facts, you need a reality check.


The link was from Fox. That's all I was saying. The second part was my own opinion.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The link was from Fox. That's all I was saying. The second part was my own opinion.


The paste didn't show up. That led to the confusion.
One the tallest buildings in Christchurch--The 20-story Grand Chancellor hotel--is leaning increasingly to one side, and is expected to collapse at any time. (Link to Google Street View of the hotel entrance)

Official death toll stands at 75, with at least 300 still unaccounted for.

Article
Quoting Cochise000:


This really amazes me. AGW proponents are readily willing to admit that the sun could affect tectonic plates of the earth, but aren't willing to admit that sun cycles could be the primary drivers of world climate. How closed could one's mind be if you accept the fact that solar flares could cause earthquakes but not severely affect the weather? It is truly mind boggling.


Bah, I'll bite -- mainly because I'm feeling under the weather and can't concentrate on work.

I guess I'm an AGW proponent -- I'm someone for whom all the evidence points towards AGW being the single best explanation for what we're observing. The astronomical drivers that are put forward to explain AGW hold no water whatsoever. The Milankovic cycles, on which I've worked, occur on a totally different timescale to the observed effects, and simply, can not be involved. Full stop. No doubt. There's less life in that theory as an explanation for the currently observed trends than there is in the theory that my left leg played a critical role in the assassination of JFK. Seriously.

As for Solar cycles, it's well worth noting that the maximum variation in the radiation emitted by the Sun over the last 100 years is significantly, significantly less than the variation in incident radiation the Earth receives from the Sun as it moves through its eccentric orbit.

That's right, the annual difference in irradiation from the Sun as a result of the Earth's eccentric orbit (aphelion in July, perihelion in January) is significantly larger than the small variation in flux emitted by the Sun as it moves from high activity to low and back again.

Simply put, the idea that Solar cycles are driving the observed variation in climate is just as dead as the idea my left leg was sitting on the grassy knoll.

As for solar activity influencing seismicity on the Earth, I have to admit I've never looked into it, but instinctively, I feel that it's something that wouldn't stand up to close scrutiny... I could well be wrong, however - as I say, I'm not qualified to talk about that, and haven't read widely enough around the subject to form an informed opinion. My uninformed opinion, however, is that it sounds an unsound link. I could well be proved wrong though, but I guess I'm a flarequake sceptic :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
One the tallest buildings in Christchurch--The 20-story Grand Chancellor hotel--is leaning increasingly to one side, and is expected to collapse at any time. (Link to Google Street View of Hotel Entrance)

Official death toll stands at 75, with at least 300 still unaccounted for.

Article


Lost in the Libya stuff.......They are both a mess and need serious coverage.
How'd we get to the subject of oil on the blog LOL
Quoting caneswatch:
How'd we get to the subject of oil on the blog LOL


583.
Quoting caneswatch:
How'd we get to the subject of oil on the blog LOL


Rick Astley asked me to post it.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Rick Astley asked me to post it.


Ask him what happened to the woman that inspired Never Gonna Give You Up LOL
Quoting caneswatch:


Ask him what happened to the woman that inspired Never Gonna Give You Up LOL


Actually...it was the guy who did the flip off the wall who was drunk. Many takes on that shot. And what is happening in Libya, is a very important news story, which we do post about. Weather related or not.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Rick Astley asked me to post it.


That's where a lot of motivation on here comes from.
Quoting caneswatch:


Ask him what happened to the woman that inspired Never Gonna Give You Up LOL


That be ding dong liberal clueless entertainers.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Actually...it was the guy who did the flip off the wall who was drunk. Many takes on that shot. And what is happening in Libya, is a very important news story, which we do post about. Weather related or not.


It is. It's happening all across the Middle East, like a giant revolution. It makes me think what would happen if this were happening in the US of A?
Quoting twincomanche:


That be ding dong liberal clueless entertainers.


We were joking around twin. As far as liberal clueless entertainers...I will leave that to Patrap.
Quoting caneswatch:


It is. It's happening all across the Middle East, like a giant revolution. It makes me think what would happen if this were happening in the US of A?


Don't you think it's unlikely that this would happen here since we believe in due process? Or don't you believe in this?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We were joking around twin. As far as liberal clueless entertainers...I will leave that to Patrap.


Is he a clueless liberal entertainer?
Quoting twincomanche:


Don't you think it's unlikely that this would happen here since we believe in due process? Or don't you believe in this?


It's just a thought, not saying it would happen.