WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."



Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."



Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
A good field of study for those interested


ART

Visualization of General Relativistic DataLink
with 100+mph winds, wind completely circles the eye in seconds so a max sustained wind is average and doesnt' take motion into account.
456 what group did you get that info from? There were 2 post ivan estimates. there was 1 group that grossly underestimated how far inland it's winds went because all power was lost to data equipment..
1003. Ivansrvivr 12:59 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 what group did you get that info from? There were 2 post ivan estimates. there was 1 group that grossly underestimated how far inland it's winds went because all power was lost to data equipment..


Yeah it came from the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The images presented is updated and changed as new data becomes available.
The big factor what made Ivan much worse was the ERC that took place overhead and the extra time it caused the Pensacola area to be basically in the eyewall twice, on top of Ivan being slower moving. I had a radar image of ivan posted on my last blog that showed 2 distinct eyewalls on the north and east side but none on the SW side. Wilma was very fast mover which helped reduce damage overall but made momentum side stronger. Wilma and Ivan were both intensifying. Wilma fed on the Glades and drop in "relative" shear. Ivan's pressure fell 6mb (from 937 to 931) just as making landfall. thiat didnt have time to translate into max sustained ect. but no doubt increased damage Strengthening storms are much nastier than stable/weakening ones.
456, post the 0730 2 degree map from Ivan sept 16. it shows the momentum side of a storm perfectly.
456 that is the group that got it right. there was another that claimed Ivan was a cat 1 at landfall. (Some college set up wind measuring devices not figuring the would blow away or lose power.
1008. Patrap
To be sure, a Hurricane cant derive any additional strengthening from the Everglades, Cyclogenesis feedback needs deeper water,by tens of meters deeper than any available there,the best it can do is maintain, but friction always takes a toll,to a landfalling storm..

Another myth is that Max winds circle the Eye in Secs,,not by any means. If a Eyewall interior circumference is 200 miles, a wind would have to be moving at an faster than Orbital speed to complete a rev in a sec.
The shuttle moving at 17,000mph only travels 300 miles in 60 seconds.
1009. hahaguy
who would think ivan was a cat at landfall. they were so very wrong.
1006. Ivansrvivr 1:19 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456, post the 0730 2 degree map from Ivan sept 16. it shows the momentum side of a storm perfectly.


I'm getting an error every time I click the link

550 col02deg.png: No such file or directory
Never mind, Problem solved

Never mind, Problem solved

Yeah thanks Patrap thats what I thought. Yeah so 456, remember the graphic you posted where a hurricane had 90 mph winds on the east side and the north side 100 mph winds? wouldn't they classify the maximum sustained winds as 100 mph?
1013. SouthDadeFish 1:37 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Yeah thanks Patrap thats what I thought. Yeah so 456, remember the graphic you posted where a hurricane had 90 mph winds on the east side and the north side 100 mph winds? wouldn't they classify the maximum sustained winds as 100 mph?


Note that the U.S. OAR and other forecasting center advisories already take this asymmetry into account and, in this case, would state that the highest winds were 100 mph [160 km/hr].
In other words the MSW would be 100 mph
Ok thanks a bunch =] Thats what I always thought. So how fast was Wilma moving when it bombed to 882 millibars? From what I remember it was moving pretty slow and I guess if it was moving at like 15 mph instead its winds could have been even stronger. Thats pretty scary to think about.
1018. Patrap
Im not sure who determines the max winds besides the sonde data,and surface based anenometers. All I know is if the Eyewall windfield varies in speed as per location..so as my experience being on Katrina's west side for the duration of the event,I had East to Neast winds,then a N wind then a NW , then west and ending with Sw. So Its all relative to ones position, data point, google info,etc.
She was moving a mere 8 mph. Imgagine if she was zooming like Hurricane Dean of last year.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.
Actually The MSW was 125. Storm was moving north at 20 mph. MSW is Maximum not average sustained winds. Lowest Pressure had dropped from 137 to 131 mb so a strengthening phase was beginning. During strengthening it is believed that strongest winds are pushed towards the ground and weakening does total opposite lets strongest winds lift into air.
456 strongest winds are related to pressure compared to surrounding pressures. Not just pressure alone.
1022. hydrus
If a hurricane had 17,000 MPH winds i would have to bring in the lawn chairs.
456 remember than when Wilma was that strong, her eye was less than 2 miles arcoss. Wilma was basically a large tropical tornado at that point.
Severe Weather in Florida Today.
Yeah I believe Wilma's winds were raised to 185 in post analysis. So if she was moving near 20 mph like Dean was last year, her winds could have gotten close to 200 mph. Thats just amazing.
1026. Patrap
About This Video

Added: June 03, 2007
NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina note pronounced "stadium effect"

957. Weather456 8:20 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
927. hahaguy 12:22 AM AST on April 05, 2008
isnt't true sometimes if a storm is moving pretty fast that it makes the winds feel worse or no

Yes, the speed of motion is added to the current wind speed mainly to the right of motion of a westward moving tropical cyclone.



-- Good stuff on here today, gentlemen! Interesting posts. Good ones, thanks!

Yet, I'm curious about this one (nothing against you at all 456) as I have always agreed/thought that forward motion of a storm would have to increase the wind speed of storms, especially on the right hand side of a land-falling storm. However, (despite some possible memory malaise) I believe I remember that someone last season posted some official statement that forward motion was not added.

IMO, it should be; but, does anyone else remember this? Thanks.
But also Wilma's movement wasn't really in a straight line when she was that strong. It was more like a cycle of large wobbles. Here is a great loop showing that. Link
1029. hydrus
IVAVSRVIVR-do you think that if hurricane charley had moved at a slower speed and stayed over the water for 6 or 8 more hours would have stregthened to a catagory 5 ?
1030. Patrap
The reason it is never included is because its relative.And not a factor.A Hurricane is a Moving ever-changing Tropical Entity, that ebbs and Flows.To give a Storm a imagined extra MPH isnt true to the Storms Intensity overall. Its relative only where it cross's the coast.

Heres hurricane Luis

.
1022. hydrus 12:56 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
If a hurricane had 17,000 MPH winds i would have to bring in the lawn chairs.


-- LOL, yep, and down below the surface of the house into the ground! Too funny!
I remember when Hurricane Charley hit Punta Gorda, it was classified as having a MSW of 145 mph. The storm was moving at about a 21 mph clip. The highest wind recorded on the ground at a local fire station was 186 mph before the equipment failed.
1021. Ivansrvivr 1:56 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 strongest winds are related to pressure compared to surrounding pressures. Not just pressure alone.


Yeah i kno that. Its call the ambient pressure. I was just posting her current movement at the time of the lowest pressure.

MLC, I dont remember that storm. The NHC states that they add in the forward motion so it would be a responsibilty on thier part.
1034. Patrap
Charleys right turn into Punta Gorda caught many forecasters by surprise.Its a good example of being ready when in a Warned area. Focus on where the storm is Going, not where its forecasted to go. ..always.Some refused to believe the turn and dismissed it as a wobble till it was Obvious,Punta was the Ping target of Landfall.
I don't know. Charly strengthened because "relative" shear dropped when Charley made right turn and accelerated. there were SW winds at over 20kts at upper levels. WhenCharley made right turn and accelerated to same speed RELATIVE shear dropped to less than 5 kts. Charley was small and smaller storms fluctuate quickly. had Charly stalled,upper level shear would have destroyed it. had it had 2 more hrs over water close to loop current anything is possible.
1030. Patrap 1:08 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
Its relative only where it cross's the coast.


Thanks, Pat. I wish we could find where that is stated officially. I'll have to do some browsing. Still, my curiosity is piqued. And, I mentioned "land-falling" in my post which concurs with your statement of being "relative."

How or why is that not really considered as a a recordable variable in land-falling systems because surely it makes a difference. Maybe, it should be considered in any new classification of storms because it surely makes a difference in surge factors, etc.

For example: Compare a Cat 3 land-falling storm with max sustained winds of 116 mph moving at 15 mph to a Cat 3 land-falling storm with max sustained winds of 116 mph moving at 6 mph. The latter remains a Cat 3 storm, but the first becomes a land-falling force of Cat 4 storm strength.

Thoughts? Thanks!
with storms so small, it is hard to tell exact strength. Charley may have been a 5. Listen once you get into the mid 3 and above they are called "majors". Give that really deep thought. A major is a major for a good reason.
Thats true Ivan but there is an amazing difference between a 3 and a 5. Look at Hurricane Jeanne compared to Hurricane Andrew or Hurricane Camille. The damage of a category 5 is unbelieveable.
Cat 3 with huge windfield moving at 6 does 100x the damage of a charley sized cat 3 moving at 16. Duration causes more damage than max sustained. Ivan showed that really well.
1040. Patrap
The System..neeeds an Overhaul..thats why Many are pushing for a Better Scale that the SSS.

Too much, an too many focus on Winds when the Impact from surge is always the greatest threat. Its the Overall Impact that counts. A slow moving S/S/S Cat-1 can pile up more surge over 2-3 days coming in, as compared to a rapidly moving Higher S/S/S cat..storm deepening and moving in like Charley.A Surge dont increase expoentially as the winds do. It takes days for a storm to Moment a huge surge.Not hours.
Lili and Isodore from 02 are good examples. The water will always take more lives than wind.
But, Ivan, isn't windfield defined more in size and not speed? Hey, I'm not disagreeing with anyone - just interesting conversation. Seems to me, too, that you could use the same case scenario for even TS, Cat 1 or 2 storms. Obviously, a major is a major. But, all of that, too (with classification) makes a difference in protocols - warnings, evacs, etc. Just seems important, and I know it was lightly debated last year, but we moved on from it quickly. An interesting and important topic I believe.
1042. Patrap
The debate and discussion on the topic has been underway for about 5 years now, on a Professional level.

2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 25, 2003)
Paper No. 180-9
Presentation Time: 3:30 PM-3:45 PM
A NEW HURRICANE COASTAL IMPACT SCALE CONTINUED WORK Link


More recent here,
Published: 01:45 EST, September 27, 2006
New Hurricane Classification System Can Better Assess the Human Experience
The loss of life and homes due to Hurricane Katrina was a monumental blow. A new study introduces a new scale in which to classify hurricanes by postlandfall measurements that could aid in future decision-making, and hopefully, reduce the number of victims. The study is published in the latest issue of Journal of Coastal Research.
Most Americans know and use the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale to classify hurricanes in which a number from 1 to 5 is assigned. The SS scale works to evaluate winds and storm surge over open water in the prelandfall window, but fails to accurately account for the observed impacts over land, said Jason Senkbeil and Scott Sheridan, another S-S duo who have created a new postlandfall Hurricane Classification System (HCS). This system categorizes hurricanes using six variables.. open water storm surge, rainfall, duration of hurricane force winds, maximum sustained winds, gust score, and minimum central pressure.

The HCS focuses on the observed storm intensity over land, and in turn, the human experience. This variation to the SS scale was made to reflect the changing emphasis of hurricane damage. Over the last 50 years, coastal population growth and increased property development have lead to a rise in monetary damage from hurricanes. And while the potential loss of life is always a concern, the increasing property destruction suggests a shift from fatality prevention to the protection of property.

People need to understand the severity of the storm postlandfall to know if their evacuation or preparation decisions were warranted based on the observed damage at their individual locales, said the studys authors. Senkbeil and Sheridan evaluated 41 hurricanes from 1960 to 2004 using their new scale. From these evaluations, the public can better assess evacuation decisions in the future. While the HCS isnt meant to replace the standard SS scale, it will reconcile the differences between forecasted and observed intensity.
Pat, again, good point! With that scenario, a slow moving Cat 2 could be considerably more dangerous with "surge factor" build up, than a fast moving Cat 3, that has no "surge factor" build up time. So, again, a classification problem, but in reverse and with possible more deadly and destructive consequences.
Frances did more us money damage the Jeanne but was far weaker why? Duration over populated area. Ivan did more than charley and nearly topped Jeanne and Francis combined despite landfalling in an area with less than 1/10th the population of the other landfall areas why? Duration.


Hurricane Charley 8/9-8/15 145 947 Category 4 $14000million

Hurricane Frances 8/25-9/10 145 937 Category 2 $9000million

Hurricane Ivan 9/2-9/24 165 910 Category 3 $14200million

Hurricane Jeanne 9/13-9/29 120 951 Category 3 $6900million

1045. Patrap
You see it clearly MLC. Theres a lot of room for improvement.
1046. Patrap


A Postlandfall Hurricane Classification System for the United States PDF: Link
winfield size should also be a factor.
1048. hydrus
Thanks for the info.After all the years i have lived in florida and all of the hurricanes and tropical storms i have witnessed(Charley being the strongest as far as windspeed is concerned)i never thought we were going to be hit with such a small but powerful storm.It looked so insignificant in the eastern carribean,that we didnt give much thought in the begining of charley being much of a threat.It was always the hurricanes with the large diameters that always seem to hit or effect us here in S.W.FLWhen the storm hit,it only lasted an hour.When Jeanne hit it lasted almost a day.
1027. moonlightcowboy 1:05 PM CDT on April 05, 2008
957. Weather456 8:20 AM CDT on April 05, 2008
927. hahaguy 12:22 AM AST on April 05, 2008
isnt't true sometimes if a storm is moving pretty fast that it makes the winds feel worse or no

Yes, the speed of motion is added to the current wind speed mainly to the right of motion of a westward moving tropical cyclone.



-- Good stuff on here today, gentlemen! Interesting posts. Good ones, thanks!

Yet, I'm curious about this one (nothing against you at all 456) as I have always agreed/thought that forward motion of a storm would have to increase the wind speed of storms, especially on the right hand side of a land-falling storm. However, (despite some possible memory malaise) I believe I remember that someone last season posted some official statement that forward motion was not added.



From what I have heard, the forward motion is already accounted for; after all, the NHC uses the maximum sustained wind, which is the highest wind anywhere in the storm relative to an observer on the ground. This usually means the right hand side (northern side in a westward moving storm, eastern side in a northward moving storm; the northern side also usually has the highest winds due to higher pressure/the subtropical ridge to the north as well, even in storms moving eastwards).
Also Frances had a greater storm surge I would imagine because it had previously been a category four and had been a hurricane for many days before making landfall.
Good point, Ivan, too!

Pat, I wonder if the new(experimental?) HCS scale is being used "side-by-side" (if you will) with the SSS? Seems that its synchronistic use would be helpful, at least in a transition to a new scale, or addendum to the SSS sytem. I'd like to see it used along side the SSS because it would give a more accurate account of a storm's possible consequences. I'm surprised the insurance lobby hasn't mandated it.
1052. Patrap

It is not used by the NOAA/NHC period MLC.
But the Private,and some State sectors use it for impact potential .
To many in the upper echelons of the NOAA and NHC group have strong resistance to tamper with the SSS.
But the trend is leaning more toward revision, every season now.
N.C Drought fading away. 1-5+ of rain has fell state wide.Every week for the few past weeks we have been improving.Watch for dramatic changes in the drought area next Thursday as they update the map.

Next good rain chance will be Thursday or later next week as of now.
STL, that may be the answer - forward motion is already factored in to the "max sustained" winds. Yeah, I think that was the resolve from last year's discussion. Thanks.
Pat, is there any way "we" can follow the HCS scale with an approaching storm? Is it used with every storm? A link?
456 remember that a hurricane's winds go around and into the storm. The highest sustained winds (in the eyewall) aren't going in a straight line. The winds are circulating which means that sustained wind for 1 minute would go around at least half the eyewall and would not just be on one side of the storm.
The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Bladen County in southeast North Carolina

* until 315 PM EDT

* at 252 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Smiths
Crossroads... or about 11 miles east of Elizabethtown... moving
northeast at 30 mph.

* The tornado is expected to be near...
Smiths Crossroads by 300 PM...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. Seek
shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or
room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and
always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 3474 7838 3471 7837 3469 7833 3466 7831
3462 7831 3461 7830 3451 7842 3464 7857
3478 7842
time... Mot... loc 1853z 225deg 30kt 3465 7841




Apparently, HCS is only being used in a "post storm analysis" form in the present. And, according to the report I was just browsing, has no significant plans to replace the SSS. Yet, I can't help but wonder that some new classification could help save lives and assist emergency management with various protocols, etc.
1056. Ivansrvivr 2:54 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 remember that a hurricane's winds go around and into the storm. The highest sustained winds (in the eyewall) aren't going in a straight line. The winds are circulating which means that sustained wind for 1 minute would go around at least half the eyewall and would not just be on one side of the storm.


I know that...i didnt stated otherwise.
456, i was only pointing out that NHC uses average of wind on either side of eye. Motion is figured in when folks in RFQ are warned that higher gusts are possible. Believe me 456, I give you far more cred than that. I am saying the NHC and NOAA need to change how they rate storms even farther. That's all. 456 you are asking good questions. Making fun blog today.
1061. Drakoen
Good afternoon everyone!
Mokee(the cat) has had fun answering your questions too.
Mo and Ivan said what's up Drakoen.
1064. Drakoen
1063. Ivansrvivr 7:35 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Mo and Ivan said what's up Drakoen.


Nothing much..
1060. Ivansrvivr 3:33 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456, i was only pointing out that NHC uses average of wind on either side of eye. Motion is figured in when folks in RFQ are warned that higher gusts are possible. Believe me 456, I give you far more cred than that. I am saying the NHC and NOAA need to change how they rate storms even farther. That's all. 456 you are asking good questions. Making fun blog today


Seen
From what I have heard, the forward motion is already accounted for; after all, the NHC uses the maximum sustained wind, which is the highest wind anywhere in the storm relative to an observer on the ground. This usually means the right hand side (northern side in a westward moving storm, eastern side in a northward moving storm; the northern side also usually has the highest winds due to higher pressure/the subtropical ridge to the north as well, even in storms moving eastwards).

Good point....interaction with the subridge.
afternoon JFV
1070. Drakoen
1068. JFV 7:41 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Hey Drak, how has life been treating you lately?


Pretty good.
There is not always ridge north of storm. Sometimes is trough. Irene was one like that. Formed on old frontal trough and ULL pushed it NNE. Every tropical system is different. What I can say from experiencing both weak and strong sides of hurricanes is forecasters dont explain how much more violent the strong side is. Winds are much gustier and gusts are stronger rather than steady. Rains are usually heavier too. Forecasters do good job of warning of tornadoes that are far more likely in rfq and also associated highest surge. What is not forecasted well is windfield size and the effects of longer duration systems.
Mo said hello to JFV while I was busy running my big mouth.
Good discussion in here today, and quite gentlemen-like, too! Refreshing and informative! Thanks, ya'll! I've got some errands to make, bbl! Enjoy your Saturday afternoon and weekend. :)
No problem MLC. Mo said RRDDRROORRWWW(thats have a safe tip in Asian leopard.
Ummm this is kind of off-topic but I'm interested in persuing a meteorology degree and i guess specifically one that specializes in tropical meteorology. Does anyone know of any good programs?
Thank Mo. She remembered. Mo is very thoughtful respectful cat as long as she always gets her way. Then she becomes angry wild animal.
Thats a good argument put forward Ivan, What u proposed they do?
Go to StormW's blog and ask him. He will give u met 101 test and lots of need to know stuff. Storm loves helping out young folks who want to learn. The best in state is FSU. UM has met program too i think.
Take into account storm size(area of hurricane force winds) forward motion and possibly have ratings for different parts of a storm rather than just rating the storm.
Ok thanks a bunch =]
JFV, I dont talk to dade fish much. Just kidding, I don't know what u mean but it doesnt sound good.
1086. pottery
Just settin' here, enjoying a cold one, and reading the discussion from the past couple hours.

Thanks all, for a very informative and educational debate.

Respect.
1087. Drakoen
A surface cold front along with a shortwave trough continues to push into the southeast. Numerous thunderstorms are developing with the pre-frontal trough. A progressive low level jet will act to draw up moisture from the Gulf with increasing instability and warm air advection into the developing thunderstorms. 500mb analysis shows a shortwave trough positive vorticity advection is leading to much upper level divergence and fuel for active activity across the Southeast. The front is currently pushing through a low to mid level ridge that is out in the Atlantic east of Bermuda. High pressure dominates most of the Central U.S. however another cold front is entering the northern plains.
vis
Figure 1. Cold front.

shortwave
Figure 2. 500mb analysis: shortwave which is the kink in the isohypse.
Drak is it me or does the right half of that satellite pic look like aug of 04(From Florida East.)
1090. Drakoen
1088. Ivansrvivr 8:35 PM GMT on April 05, 2008
Drak is it me or does the right half of that satellite pic look like aug of 04(From Florida East.)


LOL yea. I get what you are saying. We'll see if a ridge like that is able to build in for the season. If so then the Gulf and Southeast would be in trouble.
P. thank you for encouraging good debate. It makes it worth fighting the Flu to sit up knowing someone is getting something out of it.
If one like that is able to build, I'm thinking if something doesnt move that one. There are alot of indicators setting up early this season. That may be another. Carrib SSTs will likely hold the season up a bit early but the E.ATL is a can of worms for somebody later this season.
The squall line in the gulf doesn't seem to me letting up at all as it slowly moves toward the fl pen... Can someone tell me how strong it will be when it arrives here in Tampa?
There's a line of thunderstorms, maybe hail heading for East Central Florida and thought of you guys...Glad to see you're holding down the fort until hurricane season begins!
The Doc's April Fool's Blog is pretty cute...
chicklit
Sitting here in Tallahassee, the front/squall line came through over the last few hours and it was pretty moderate (with a few stronger cells South of me) but plenty of steady rain.....I'd say that the line headed towards the Peninsulla is just going to bring a little wind and some prolonged rain...Local flooding will probably be the biggest issue when it hits the West coast of FL...
Thanks weather
Nice night to stay home and order in some food in Florida.........
I'm looking at the line with long range radar from Tampa, and the leading edge doesn't look very strong to me just yet (maybe just due to the range) but the area of rain behind the front is immense. Did you have any warnings as the front came through weather?
In the Tallahassee area, a severe storm warning never materilized when it came through; there was one tornado warning south of Tallahassee (Crawfordville) but I am not aware of any reported damage....It basically "steady drizzle" rained for about 2-3 hours....
Also; don't be fooled by some of the returns on the radar; my local radar has us in the "yellow" right now, but, I'm sitting high and dry right now with a very light drizzle...
Wow, I was hoping all of that was mod. rain... guess not. Well, maybe I'll be lucky enough to get some heavier stuff. The nws is predicting .5-.75" tonight and another .25-.5 tomorrow followed by .5-.75 tomorrow night so they must be seeing something I'm not.
Well, I'm off to track down the family and get some grub.....Have a Nice Evening All and I do hope that the rest of Florida gets some much needed rain...........
UM has met program too i think.

Not for undergrads, only graduate level and is on Virginia Key, not in Coral Gables. (I got offered a job there once upon a time)
Ummm this is kind of off-topic but I'm interested in persuing a meteorology degree and i guess specifically one that specializes in tropical meteorology. Does anyone know of any good programs?

For an undergrad program, you will be hard pressed to specialize in much of anything, but it can be done. I chose to take extra electives such as atmospheric chem, numerical modeling, air pollution meteorology, and tropical meteorology. None of them were required for a NWS or TV job, so they were not required for the undergrad degree at A&M. I think some of them are required now, though. I did talk to students at an internship I went on and found out that some of these specialised courses were simply not available to undergrads at many schools, only for grad students.

Texas A&M has a good all around program, but not much of a TC guru on staff last I heard.

Of course, you could go to Colorado State and take some extra electives under one of Bill Gray's underlings.

Believe it or not, U South Alabama in Mobile has an up and coming program with more than a couple of TC researchers. I know for a fact that they have a new supercomputer going in there of 144 processors to run H-WRF very soon. (As in hardware delivery should be any week now...I am involved in the installation of the Infiniband cluster software and the installation of compilers, libraries, and ultimately, the models themselves, along with testing all of the above.) They also have researchers presenting findings at conferences alongside such notables at Chris Landsea, Mark Powell, Bill Gray, Greg Holland, and Kerry Emmanuel. I have been a bit of a participant in that and been involved and coauthored for the conference presentations.

You cannot go wrong with a degree from UWisconsin in this field. UWashington is up there too, but both of them are difficult to get into.

FSU was already mentioned and does have a little more of a TC component than Texas A&M.

Mississippi State has a growing TC component. I know a couple of TC researchers heavily involved in Journal Publications, conference presentations, and the like at MSU. I have been involved with their work and presentations as well.

U Alabama - Huntsville also has an excellent program (almost went there rather than A&M). I expect they have some TC courses, but cannot be sure.

Best of luck. The 2 things I can impart on a potential student is to not shirk away from taking any course, required or not, if it will give you something over other applicants AND do apply for and go on an internship sponsored by NOAA, NASA, Department of Energy after your junior year, especially one that will give you some good experience (resume material) and contacts in multiple agencies. Field campaigns are particularly good for this.
Dang the blogging is slow tonight.
Hey JFV how are you tonight??
atmoaggie,

Thank you very much for the information, I really appreciate you taking the time to write all of this =] So if I read what you were saying correctly, I won't really have to worry about tropical meteorology specifically until I'm in grad school? Also about the internships, do you know the age requirements on them and where I could apply for any?

Thanks again.
Yeah its really surprising that its fadding this fast. We could be moving into a Nuetral or El Nino period later in the year....
Yes they are pretty active. Hey im gonna be leaving the office now and ill be home in a half hour or so. So ill talk to you later.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Satellite animations and surface observations continue to show a vigorous cold front pushing across the Gulf of Mexico from the Bay of Campeche near 21N/93W through 25N/86W and across the Southeast United States. Deep convection lies within 200 nmi of the front and the pre frontal squall line north of 24N, with Doppler radar over the Southeastern United States showing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Northeast Gulf now spreading across the Florida Peninsula and Southeastern United States. At the surface, pronounce return flow dominates the region ahead of the front, and consequently, acting as inflow to help fuel these intense squalls. Northerly winds behind the front due to the associated high pressure system over the South-Central United States. Mainly fair weather lies here and over the Western Gulf except for some lingering moisture and clouds.

A well define surface anticyclone continues to persist across the Western Atlantic centered on a 1030 mb high at 30N/50W. This ridge is supporting large-scale anticyclonic flow as seen on visible imagery, and fair to partly cloudy skies

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The weather across the Caribbean remains in the control of a strong Atlantic anticyclone which is supporting ridging and fair weather across much of the basin. The ridge is also providing light-moderate tradewind flow with typical advection of patches of tradewind moisture causing periods of isolated showers. The more pronounce showers is occurring over the Windward Passage and the surrounding landmasses of Southeast Cuba and Jamaica where a dying upper trough is aiding surface speed convergence and afternoon thunderstorms. Mariners should expect seas of 9-10 ft over a large area of the Eastern Caribbean, diminishing to 6-7 ft over the Western Caribbean. This pattern should persist into Sunday as the Atlantic high pressure remains in place north of our region.

by W456
I just checked current ENSO. La Nina is about like prez Bush's approval ratings. GONE. Watch for Big Nino AFTER next season. Gotta go run Mo before she eats the couch. Later.
lol lol
1119. hydrus
Weather456-Is it windy yearround where you live?
It could get rather stormy across Southern Florida sunday as a pre-frontal trof will most likely come to a stop near the lake.Thunderstorm activity that does get going will end up in the metro areas of southeast florida on sunday.Iam expecting coverage to be windspread through the afternoon hours on sunday.

Most of the energy with the line will break up as it makes it into south florida.This evening looks ok.

State wide Radar loop.

So if I read what you were saying correctly, I won't really have to worry about tropical meteorology specifically until I'm in grad school? Also about the internships, do you know the age requirements on them and where I could apply for any?

Admittedly, picking a specialised subset of the meteorology field for a career is near impossible with only a BS and no you wouldn't need to focus on tropical until grad school.

Internships: They all have thier own requirements, but most will stipulate you being a current student in the field. As finding them, some literature will be available in a school's dept office, but I found many more by simple searching the net.
Hmmm okay. Well it looks like I still have quite a few years left in school lol

Thanks once more.
Hi H23

Great radar software you have, there! Can I have the link to that site? TIA
1119. hydrus 7:45 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Weather456-Is it windy yearround where you live?


No...highly variable..it depends on the pressure gradient south of the ridge, and that is highly variable. Our winds are also modified by synoptic scale disturbances like upper lows, tropical waves and hurricanes. However, the trades have been anomalously strong this winter and that is due to the more powerful lows and a more westward and strong ridge.
1125. hahaguy
so what does the retreating of La Nina mean for us. adrian, hopefully we get some of that rain. we can use it here.
1123. stormdude77 7:54 PM EDT on April 05, 2008
Hi H23

Great radar software you have, there! Can I have the link to that site? TIA

Scroll to the bottom of my front page on my website were there is a banner were you can click on.Right next to it ive included a link to NWS radio for miami dade.
1052. Patrap 2:44 PM EDT on April 05, 2008

It is not used by the NOAA/NHC period MLC.
But the Private,and some State sectors use it for impact potential .
To many in the upper echelons of the NOAA and NHC group have strong resistance to tamper with the SSS.
But the trend is leaning more toward revision, every season now.



Evening everybody.

I said it recently, but will do so again; we need an Enhanced Saffir-Simpson Scale (rather like what was done for tornados) which takes multiple factors into account rather than trying to build a new one from scratch. This would provide the twin advantages of ease of transition from old to new and greater clarity / specificity of information, especially at landfall.
1128. hahaguy
does anyone one else think that katrina was really a cat 4 at landfall besides me.
Thanks, Adrian!
Haha,

I know Katrina was downgraded from cat 4 after the fact.
Good evening, Baha!
1132. hydrus
Weather456-I read the blogs you post and it seems for the longest time you been mentioning high winds, rough seas and larger than normal swells near were you live.If i remember correctly,your located in the northern part of the lesser antilles.
1133. pottery
Hello, you wuba- band members. What's up in the tropics ?
1134. pottery
Trades have been strong and seas have been rough since early January, all through the island chain as far south as Trinidad.
Hey, dude.

1136. hydrus
I thought just by the look of the satellite photos they were showing that Hurricane Katrina still was a cat-4.Especially when they announced how high the storm surge was.I wonder if Katrina was undergoing an eye wall regeneration phase right before landfall.
1137. Patrap
Synthesis I: Hurricane Katrina and Rita (2005) SFMR and GPS Dropsonde Wind Observations Link

KATRINA PART 2 PHOTO INDEX COVERAGE AREAS Link

Landfall Local Radar Loop Link
1138. hydrus
POTTERY-Have you had alot of rain lately,and have you ever experienced a tropical cyclone on trinidad since you have been there?
1140. hydrus
PATRAP-I was looking at that Katrina radar loop and was wondering what that small peninsula of land is called that is jutting out into the Gulf of Mexico?
1141. pottery
Hydrus.
Yes, we have had a relatively wet Dry-Season so far ( dryseason is Jan - June ). But the rain has been welcomed, because our dry season can get very dry and hot.

No, I have never experienced a Hurricane here, and indeed we get very few.Recently hurricane Ivan passed close enough to give us winds of enough strength to blow off some roofs. But the danger we face from flood in the mountains is a bigger concern, and several houses get damaged or destroyed every year from heavy rain.
Feeder bands from storms that pass north of us are often heavy rain makers.
1142. Patrap
Thats Plaquemines Parish and the Miss River,that runs thru ..to Venice at the Bottom.
There a Naval Air Station NAS Belle Chase,Lots small Fishing Communities ,and Plenty of Citrus Growers,..ANd A Boatload of Oil Industry

1143. Patrap
A Still Flooded Plaquemines Parish,East Bank, New Orleans and points Se of the City.Sept 6 2005 MODIS Imagery Link

Close Up animated Gif of the Eyewall Link

LSU Earth Scan Page for more imagery Link
1144. hydrus
PATRAP-The name Venice seems appropriate for that area.Thru the years i have seen that place get whacked numerous times with high wind and surge.
1145. Patrap
Tiger Pass and Me,South Of Venice,for Chevron,Hercules-21 A Jack-Up rig.Dec,94 Noisy. Link

A long way from Help,trouble can ruin yer day too.Blowout on the drill Pipe exchange. Link

Another one,Tower view, Link
1146. hydrus
POTTERY-I have read alot about the region were you live.It is in an area that earthquakes happen quite often.
1147. hydrus
PATRAP-We were doing a little bit of cleaning up a month before that picture was taken from t.s.Gordon.
1148. JLPR
Hello everyone it has been a long time since my last post here =P
I have been busy with the sunflowers =D
So what do you think of our first blob of 08 in the eastern Atlantic? =P
Looks like blob season has started early =P
and if blobs like this one and the other about to get off Africa continue to develop it could mean a active Cape Verde season which would be bad news for me since most of the hurricanes that come here are from there =(
well I am hoping for a major cool down of the Africa coast =P
So, the squall line just moved through and I recorded a 44 mph wind gust which is higher than any wind I received during all of the previous cold fronts. The front appears to be stalling just south of the Bay which is great news because that will put Tampa as the focus for greatly needed rain for tonight and tomorrow.
1151. hydrus
JLPR-It has been a while,looks like that blob has a tiny spin to it.
1152. JLPR
Hi hydrus =)
yes its a interesting little blob
1153. Patrap
Words and a Link for the ENSO inclined.
I. Introduction

It is now well-accepted that El Niño reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. Gray (1984) uses physical processes that accompany El Niño to describe reduced hurricane activity. Gray (1984) also finds that of the 54 major hurricanes striking the United States coast during 1900-83, only four occurred during the 16 El Niño years in contrast to 50 making landfall during the 68 non-El Niño years. This is a rate of 0.25 major hurricanes per year during El Niño events and 0.74 during non-El Niño years, almost a three to one ratio. Richards and O'Brien (1996) showed that the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast during El Niño is 21%, while the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during neutral conditions is 46%. However, the data and methodology used in Richards and O'Brien (1996) work are limited.

We reanalyze the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the United States from 1900-1997 for the phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Corrected U.S. hurricane data are used, and tropical storms are not considered in this study. The reanalysis shows that during an El Niño year, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28%. The reanalysis further determines that the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during the other two phases is larger: 48% during neutral years and 66% during El Viejo. Also, we determine the range of these strike probabilities for El Niño and El Viejo. Strike probabilities of major U.S. hurricanes during each ENSO phase are also considered.
Link
1132. hydrus 8:25 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Weather456-I read the blogs you post and it seems for the longest time you been mentioning high winds, rough seas and larger than normal swells near were you live.If i remember correctly,your located in the northern part of the lesser antilles.


Yes that is correct.
1155. pottery
Hydrus. Yeah, we feel a couple of quakes each year. A 6.2 last year which rattled this old house. Fortunately, we seem to be moving along westward quite smoothly, and will end up in San Andreas one of these days.
The problem will start, if we dont move for 5 or 10 years, then move 100 inches all at once to make up.!!
1156. Patrap
Hurricane tracks can also be influenced by ENSO.

Figure 6 shows the tracks of hurricanes in El Niño and La Niña years. Figure 7 show the density of tracks in for the same years. The Atlantic was divided in small boxes of latitude and longitude and we counted how many times the hurricane tracks fell in each box. The larger number of hits is shown in Figure 7 by colors in different shades of red and the smaller number of hits (minimum one hit) is shown in different blue shades. By examiniming both Figures, one notices the larger number of Hurricanes in La Niña years, also more hurricanes cross the Caribbean and more hurricanes make landfall in the U.S. in La Niña than in El Niño years (Gray, 1984).Link
1158. hydrus
what is el viejo?
1159. Patrap
Im not talking about no Blob. LOL..Its April 5
1160. Patrap
Impacts of the ENSO

The most severe El Niño of the century occurred in the winter of 1982 and 1983. Disastrous effects and meteorological changes occurred around the world. Total damages were estimated at over $8 billion. Link
1161. Patrap
WAVETRAK 10-day JAVA Loop N Atlantic sector.Link

850 hPa Relative VorticityLink

Toggle the Latest Available
Lower Level Winds
East Atlantic Link
1162. hydrus
POTTERY-I have never experienced an earthquake and i hope i never do.I have studied them and all the science involved is fascinating to me.
1163. JLPR
the NHC sat shows it =)

lol Pat im bored obviously the blob is going to poof =P lol
1164. hydrus
what is el viejo?
1165. Patrap
I'd expect we will see the Sw GOM or the BOC fire up First this year.Seems to be the early breeding spot Historically.
1166. Greyelf
I wanted to post an update regarding my last posts asking for a long term forecast for the Ohio area. I picked up and drove the car home this week and didn't even run into a raindrop. I did see a lot of standing water and high rivers/streams in Indiana and Illinois, but never had to do any detouring.

Anyway, thanks again to those who helped.
1167. hahaguy
anyone here seen that noaa is testing out a remote controlled drone aircraft to help get more info on tropical systems.Link
1168. hydrus
I can even learn something from April blobs.
LOL, JLPR - yeah, **poof** it has to - not far enough north to coriolis. Just the ITCZ firing, beginning its climitalogical climb. Blob watching will come soon enough!
1170. Patrap
During the other extreme of the Oscillation, the eastern tropical Pacific is cold and heavy rainfall and flooding is observed over the areas usually affected by drought during El Nino events. This phenomenon is now called La Nina. La Nina means "the little girl" in Spanish. It is also sometimes called El Viejo. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as compared to El Nino, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Global climate anomalies associated with La Nina tend to be opposite those of El Nino.Link
1172. JLPR
yes JFK =P I hope the itcz to shut down =P or it could be very active this year with an aggressive cape Verde season with the pool of water off the Africa coast which equals red warning for the Caribbean islands =(
1174. pottery
Hyrdus, indeed earthquakes are interesting phenomena, and I have read a lot about them as well.
I just wish they would shake someplace else !! It is so disconcerting to have Terra Firma start feeling unstable underfoot...........
1175. JLPR
In Puerto Rico
Distinct difference between 2004 and 2008.

Negative indices of the NAO and AO resulted in warmer SSTs during the winter of 2003-2004. That was not the case for the winter of 2007-2008 which showed more or less postive NAO indices contributing below normal SSTs over a greater portion of the Atlantic.

2004 Summary


1177. JLPR
the last hurricane to hit PR was Georges in 98
so 10 years without a cane I fear that we may get unlucky this year =(
but we had
Jeanne - 70mph in 2004
Olga - 40mph in 2007
Remember, that information is for the winter...the SST anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic are growing further west in time. Its only a matter of time.
1180. pottery
I've been looking at some history, and see that Trinidad/Tobago was impacted by 7 storms since 1950.

1961 TS Anna
1963 H Flora
1974 TS Alma
1990 TS Fran
1993 TS Brett
2000 TS Debby
2002 TS Isidore
1182. JLPR
I see JFK I hope this season ends up with many fish storms =)
456 i've been noticing a se flow coming up over madagascar feeding in cen africa isn't that flow there surpose to be a more e slighly ne flow into cen africa and i beleive this flow is the reason for the activy over east atl/africa
1184. JLPR
This week in PR was interesting with high winds we got to the point of 32mph sustained winds and a 38mph gust it kinda remind me of Olga in December =P
1179. JFV 10:10 PM AST on April 05, 2008
Please elaborate further in regards to what you just said with 'its only a matter of time'
Weather456? Thanks!


Its only a matter of time before the ATL SSTs begin to warm over the ATL and the reason why I said so becuz of climatology and the fact that the sub ridge become more centralised (shift eastward) and weaken.
1187. pottery
.".... reminds me of Olga in December "
Oh yeah that reminds me, of PeggySue in the summ.......er, sorry. Wrong blog.
1183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:19 PM AST on April 05, 2008
456 i've been noticing a se flow coming up over madagascar feeding in cen africa isn't that flow there surpose to be a more e slighly ne flow into cen africa and i beleive this flow is the reason for the activy over east atl/africa


NE from Northern Africa and SE/S from southern africa/madagascar.
I know its a little late but was this intentional (at the bottom of Jeffs blog entry.)

April Fools!
Meff Jasters
1192. hydrus
POTTERY-I remember reading on 1963,s Flora.It was very deadly for eastern Cuba and Haiti.Some areas had almost 80 inches of rain in less than 4 days.
1193. JLPR
lol guys what do you of my new avatar =P
1194. hahaguy
i love it jlpr
1195. pottery
Flora did a major destructive job on Tobago. Wiped out the coconut and cocoa plantations and blew entire villages away. Loss of life here was very low fortunately. A good friend of mine in Charlotteville on Tobago, says he held onto a concrete collumn and watched his entire wooden house fly away around him.
1196. JLPR
=D
456, I'm pretty sure it was intentional. Dr M. just switched the first letters of his name around. I've seen it done in other humorous writings. Either that or he was a little confused lol
1198. hahaguy
getting quiet in here
Photobucket

Our evening blob is a bit close to the equator for coriolis.


CORIOLIS FORCE
: Once air has been set in motion by the pressure gradient force, it undergoes an apparent deflection from its path, as seen by an observer on the earth. This apparent deflection is called the "Coriolis force" and is a result of the earth's rotation.

As air moves from high to low pressure in the northern hemisphere, it is deflected to the right by the Coriolis force. In the southern hemisphere, air moving from high to low pressure is deflected to the left by the Coriolis force.

The amount of deflection the air makes is directly related to both the speed at which the air is moving and its latitude. Therefore, slowly blowing winds will be deflected only a small amount, while stronger winds will be deflected more. Likewise, winds blowing closer to the poles will be deflected more than winds at the same speed closer to the equator. The Coriolis force is zero right at the equator.

This process is further demonstrated by this movie.
Speaking of the 08 season... I just took a look at the names scheduled for the storms this year and I must say... they don't sound intimidating at all.
1202. hahaguy
oh yes me and my g/f have made sure we have everything we need ,our shutters, and everything else. how about you jfv
I don't have the link at hand, but Germany is scrapping their bio-fuel plan. I think the world is starting to catch on that bio-fuels aren't the solution.

Developing electric cars with hydrogen batteries is a much better solution. Either way one slices it, burning fuel is not the answer when there's much better alternatives out there.
There is a new blog more ice stuff, lol
JER
YEP, new blog!
I thought just by the look of the satellite photos they were showing that Hurricane Katrina still was a cat-4.Especially when they announced how high the storm surge was.I wonder if Katrina was undergoing an eye wall regeneration phase right before landfall.

Absolutely was. See here for a power point we presented at last years Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference about the evolution of Katrina's eyewalls and observations supporting a double eyewall behavior. This has a lot do to with the extensive coverage of hurricane force winds and the amount of coastline devistated by the surge from a cat 3 (wink,tongue in cheek).