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Cyclone Sidr slams into Bangladesh

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on November 15, 2007

Tropical Cyclone Sidr made landfall at 1430 GMT in western Bangladesh as a mighty Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Sidr is the second strongest cyclone to make landfall in Bangladesh since reliable record keeping began in 1877. The only stronger storm was the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, which struck eastern Bangladesh as a Category 5 cyclone. The 30 foot storm surge of that storm killed at least 140,000 people. Sidr is the Arabic word for the jujube tree.


Figure 1. Image of Tropical Cyclone Sidr as a Category 4 storm (928 mb) with 155 mph winds. Image taken at 4:57am EST 11/15/07. The cyclone made landfall at 1430 GMT in the Sundarbans Forest area of Bangladesh, just east of Calcutta, India. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Sidr's storm surge
The big killer in Bangladesh cyclones is the storm surge. The triangular shape of Bengal Bay funnels high surges into the apex of the triangle where Bangladesh sits, and the shallow bottom of the bay allows extraordinarily high storm surges to pile up. The maximum theoretical storm surge from a worst-case Category 5 cyclone is thought to be 41 feet in western Bangladesh (Islam, 2006). Sidr's maximum storm surge to the right of where the eye makes landfall is likely to be in the 20-25 foot range. Of critical importance is the timing of landfall with respect to high tide, since there is a 1.5 meter (5 foot) difference between low and high tide in western Bangladesh. According to mobilegeographics.com, high tide is at approximately 1am local time tonight, and Sidr made landfall about halfway between low and high tide. Thus, Bangladesh did have a little luck, as the storm tide could have been about 2-3 feet higher had Sidr hit at high tide.

The coast in western Bangladesh has the Sundarbans Forest, the world's largest forest of mangrove trees. This region is the least populated coastal area in the country, and has been part of a major reforestation effort in recent years. The portion of coast likely to receive the highest storm surge levels of 20-25 feet is virtually unpopulated. However, storm surge levels of 10-20 feet are still likely to affect areas with a population of at least a million, to the east of the Sundarbans forest, and inland from the forest. The last major cyclone to hit western Bangladesh occurred in November 1988. This Category 3 cyclone with 125 mph winds had a 5-10 foot storm surge, and killed 2,000 people.

Hurricane shelters in Bangladesh
Since the Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970, a Category 4 cyclone that brought a storm surge of up to 27 feet and killed an estimated 350,000-550,000 people, Bangladesh embarked on program to build concrete cyclone shelters (Figure 2). After the 1991 cyclone, this process accelerated, thanks in part to foreign assistance. Bangladesh now has over 2500 multi-purpose cyclone shelters that can also be used as primary schools. The warning system in Bangladesh is fairly effective at notifying the population of an approaching cyclone, but many residents choose not to evacuate to the shelters, since most of them are in poor condition with minimum or no maintenance at all (Karim, 2001). In any case, these shelters can accommodate less than 3% of the population of western Bangladesh (Islam, 2006).


Figure 2. A Bangladesh cyclone shelter built after the devastating 1970 cyclone. Image credit: Harry M. Jol, professor at University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire.

The Bangladesh newspaper The Daily Star is already reporting that 300 fishing boats have sunk in Sidr, with 1,000 fishermen missing. While I don't expect we'll see anything approaching the 1991 cyclone with its death toll of 140,000, since Sidr is hitting a relarively unpopulated region of the coast, the storm has the potential to kill several thousand people in Bangladesh. Also of concern is India. The eastern portion of the Calcutta metropolis will receive winds near hurricane force, and these winds could cause major destruction of poorly built housing. Flash flooding from heavy rains could also affect both India and Bangladesh. It's a bad night to be in Bangladesh.

Links to follow for Sidr
Dhaka, Bangladesh current conditions
Calcutta, India current conditions

References

Islam, T., "Integrated Approach to Cyclone Wind Analysis and disaster planning for the Benladesh coast," Ph.D. Dissertation, Texas Tech University, December 2006.

Karim, N., (1999) Options for cyclone protection: Bangladesh context".

Paul, A., and M. Rahman, "Cyclone Mitigation Perspectives in the Islands of Bangladesh: A Case of Sandwip and Hatia Islands", Coastal Management, 34, Issue 2 April 2006, p, pp 199-215.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A Long Nights despair and the light of dawn comes not soon enough.
Thanks, Dr. M
Nice of India's weather services to make the upgrade to a SuperCyclone warning during landfall.
[end sarcasm]

From the Navy's 3:00pmUTC photograph, Sidr made landfall around 9:00pmBangladeshStandardTime (UTCplus6hours) while the tide is falling to it's low at 10:34BDT.
Not sure whether the previous high tide was allowed to slide back out past Sidr's storm surge, or whether the storm surge has been pushing that high tide inland.

Still no coverage by the US television networks as far as I can tell.
Link

Here's an article about the Chilean earthquake from yesterday.
thanks Dr. M,it's humbling to see how vulnerable certain parts of the world are to natural disasters.We have many deaths in this country to nature,but never to the scale of 100's of the thousands like in bangladesh,it kind of makes you step back at look at things differently
Thanks for the update and the links, Doc M.
Lets not taunt mother nature, shall we?
:0)
10. BajaALemt 3:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Mornin NE. You chilly up there?

Not yet,62 deg this morning,but high wind advisories are up,heavy raing moving in,expecting a 15-20 deg drop in temps late today and eve,maybe even a hint of snow flurries by morning.
Still no coverage by the US television networks as far as I can tell.


Don't expect a lot...like as not, some toothy smiling babe will make note of it, and that will be it, until the real stories come out in Europe and Asia, and then it will be "as reported here first"...cynical outlook, I'm afraid, but if it doesn't eefect the American people directly, we don't hear much about it
9. LakeShadow 3:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Lets not taunt mother nature, shall we?
:0)

didn't we do that yesterday and caused an earthquake.YIKES!!!!
9. LakeShadow 9:56 AM CST on November 15, 2007
Lets not taunt mother nature, shall we?
:0)



You're not taunting; you're in tune!
You're not taunting; you're in tune!
good answer, Flood!
With that being said, lets talk about rain in the SW.
flood!! lol
Looks @ Lake then looks at big high over Texas.....raises eyebrow
I checked the AP theres one story that was posted at 3:30AM EST that addresses the Banglesh evacuations. Everything else is about bombs going off and government coups. elsewhere around Asia. etc... There is so much unrest in Asia that there is too much to cover as well as national news and I dont think the American news folks are savvy enough to recognize a global disaster until after it happens. I think besides the flodding devastation the Bengal Tiger refugee is a huge story. Its right in the path and these creatures have come so far to get to the point they are now...this will be a major setback for this species.
Lake,

I did the same... most I could find was on Reuters
We're going to discuss a steady month-long rain event for the SW. Not too much to cause flooding, but enough to replenish the ground water tables.
What weather disasters are you planning for today?

Cold weather??
LOL!!! (Mornin Beachy)

How bout a month long rain event in the SW that moves to the SE? :)) :))
For SOME reason, a vision of Bullwinkle in a turban saying 'Eeeenie meanie chili beanie, the spirits are about the SPEAK!!' just popped into my head :))
another earthquake in CHILE today 6.8...OZ
well,they've been holding prayer vigils in the se,maybe that will work.
Aftershock?
WAS just on the news....6.8 in northern chile......
"A stretch of mangrove forest in the Sunderbans.

"Although forest officials deny that any indiscriminate felling of trees has been going on, informed sources in the Environment Department of the Government of West Bengal said that the substantial increase in the region's population had led to the exploitation of the Sunderbans. In 1951, the area's population was 11,59,559; by 1991 it had risen to 32,05,552. Today it stands at approximately 40 lakhs. Most people in the region are poor and depend on the forest for livelihood and, more specifically, their firewood needs. "


A lahk is 100,000, so the above article claims that the current population of the Sunderbans is 4 million people (not exactly "virtually uninhabited" as Dr. M. states).

This link gives a desciption of the peoples inhabiting the Sunderbans:
"During post-independence period, this region witnessed sudden influx of population mainly due to migration. The displaced persons forcibly occupied vested lands and cleared forests for habitation. Several such colonies sprung up in this manner. It exerted negative impact on the economy of fringe population. In Sundarban, 36.5% of the population belongs to SC/ST as compared to the State average of 25.61%. Nearly 95% of the population primarily depend on agriculture, which is mostly rain-fed mono-cropping, and about fifty percent of agriculturists are landless laborers. During agricultural lean season, people resort to fishing and collection of prawn seeds, even risking their lives from man-eating tigers and crocodiles. During April / May, some people also enter the Reserved Forests with permits, for collection of honey which is purchased back by West Bengal Forest Development Corporation Limited."

Here is a map of Bangladesh showing population density per square kilometer "within and outside of a 5 meter low-elevation coastal zone".
25. weatherguy03 10:17 AM CST on November 15, 2007
What weather disasters are you planning for today?

Cold weather??




How cold? Cold weather isn't a disaster unless it's REALLY cold
please no more disasters...FOLKS
Ah, Flood, cold in FL... may be considered diasterous. Depends on who you talk to! LOL

Aftershocks
I was following the cell that hit Kimball/Jasper, TN last nite. Nasty storm.



Er...I meant the SE...maybe mom nature has a different idea.

Another earthquake in Chile? my oh my...

heres another story about Sidr:-just posted.
Link
Baja,

Nine injuries reported in the Kimball, TN storm. 3 were children.
Its getting down into the 30's here for the next two nights. Thats a disaster to me!!..LOL
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.8
Date-Time Thursday, November 15, 2007 at 15:06:00 UTC
Thursday, November 15, 2007 at 12:06:00 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 22.881°S, 70.067°W
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Distances 90 km (55 miles) S of Tocopilla, Chile
90 km (55 miles) NNE of Antofagasta, Chile
125 km (80 miles) WSW of Calama, Chile
1170 km (730 miles) N of SANTIAGO, Chile

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 16.5 km (10.3 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters Nst=111, Nph=111, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.63 sec, Gp= 76°,
M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2007jtaz
LakeShadow - Thanks for the link to the latest news, hopefully the evacuations will mitigate the overall suffering and casualties.

This one sentence from that news report was a little scary from my perspective. I cannot imagine having to weather a major hurricane like this:

"Some took refuge in "mud forts" built along the coast to resist tidal surges."

I have to give those people great credit for making do with what is available to protect themselves and try to survive.
yeah guygee...lets hope they dont turn into mud tombs.
6.8 AND ANOTHER JUST NOW OF 6.2 IN chile
03,

Yep, may not be a true disaster, but need to remember to cover our plants or bring them in.
I posted on the previous blog about the population in Banfladesh. What I thought was interesting is that the article indicated that if the sea level would rise three feet than 50 percent of the country would be under water.
The map shows the location of the Divisions.
Link

Division Population
Dhaka 11,918,442
Chittagong 3,920,222
Khulna 1,400,689
Rajshahi 727,083
Syklhet 339,368
Barisal 291,769

It was interesting in Dr. M comment about the storm shelters they have set up. I hope they used them.
MAP 5.6 2007/11/15 15:15:50 -22.456 -70.030 26.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 6.8 2007/11/15 15:06:00 -22.881 -70.067 35.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 6.2 2007/11/15 15:03:11 -22.738 -70.215 37.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 5.0 2007/11/15 11:14:51 -23.175 -70.766 26.9 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 3.0 2007/11/15 10:48:20 18.997 -64.825 44.9 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
MAP 3.1 2007/11/15 10:42:48 19.140 -64.541 66.9 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2007/11/15 01:46:35 -23.181 -70.515 14.3 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE


looks like they will keep on coming...
ok, off to work. Y'all have a wonderful day! *poof*
Have you all heard of the ship-breaking yards of Bangladesh and elsewhere? Barefoot people (including kids) breaking container ships and tankers into pieces that can be hauled by cart or hand-carried. I imagine many such sites are underwater now.

We worry so much about OSHA and pollution here, yet our heavy regulations simply push such activities to a completely unregulated environment. Is it really "better" to sweep the costs of industry under the rug of third-world anonymity? But then again, without such work what would those people do to survive? It's not a very pleasant testimony for civilization overall.

May God help the uncounted millions affected by the hurricane tonight.
Zap
Here is a site that talks about Bangladesh hurricane preparation, including the dirt levees:
Link
Hi lawntonlookers - Trying to reconcile your figures with the overall population of Bangladesh
Bangladesh — Population: 150,448,339 (July 2007 est.)

Sorry if I am missing something obvious, but the districts do not seem to add up to anything near the total. Any help is appreciated.
guygee,

Just a guess, but I bet the earlier numbers were just a partial list.

"The country's population is almost evenly distributed throughout its 64 districts except for the three Hill Tracts districts which are rather sparsely inhabited. Regionally, the eastern districts have a slightly higher density than the western ones. On average, a district has a population of about 1.8 million, a thana 230,000, a union 25,000 and a village 2,000. "

Or somebody could have tranlated from millions to lakhs and back and dropped a zero somewhere.
Zap
Zaphod - That is a good link on the Bangladesh Cyclone Mitigation program and the shelters built since 1991. I hope we see an honest assessment of how well these efforts worked in the face of Sidr.
guygee

The following link is where I got the information. It may be for only the major cities. Under the Contents, go to 4 Divisions, districts, and upazilas.
Divisions, districts, and upazilas

I was just amazed at the number of people and the low elevatons.
Zaphod - Thanks, that seems reasonable. I made the same mistake with the "lahk" in an earlier post...translating 40 lahks to 40 million instead of 4 million (I went back and corrected my mistake). Interesting how the population in the Sunderbans dropped from 32 million in 1991 down to 4 million today. I have to wonder how they got all of those people to leave, and how many may have been still there, living covertly? I think you are right when you talk about the "uncounted"...we will just never know.

P.S. Thank you also lawntonlookers. I will look at the link before I logoff.

I'm off to get some work done and reflect.
Yep, you listed the populations of the capital cities after which the Divisions are named.
As Divisions:
Dhaka has ~40million, Chittagong has ~24million, Khulna has ~30million, Rajshahi has ~30million,
Syklhet has 8million, and Barisal (where Sidr's center made landfall) has a population of ~8million.
More than you ever wanted to know about Indian numeration:
Link
Zaphod:

That is a good link on the shelters. It also gives other information on the Cyclones and a map of the "risk areas".
Finally CCN International has an article on Sidr
Hey folks. Hows things?
wow slow day I see :)
Zaphod-Meerkat manor???

Gotta run be back in hour!
Sidr-those "fisherman at sea" will have the best stories on this, except for those "lost at sea", which I'm sure will be quite a few.
Another quake. this one is along the same latitude as the Chilean quakes but is east of Austrailia:
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.8
Date-Time Thursday, November 15, 2007 at 17:18:22 UTC
Friday, November 16, 2007 at 05:18:22 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 22.842°S, 175.199°W
Depth 40.1 km (24.9 miles)
Region TONGA REGION
Distances 185 km (115 miles) S of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga
435 km (270 miles) SE of Ndoi Island, Fiji
480 km (300 miles) SSW of Neiafu, Tonga
1830 km (1140 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand


Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 8 km (5.0 miles); depth +/- 17 km (10.6 miles)
Parameters Nst=123, Nph=123, Dmin=760 km, Rmss=0.81 sec, Gp= 76°,
M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2007jtbd
bone,very slow day
hey bone. its just slowed down recently as bosses move in on slacking workers...
68. LakeShadow 6:16 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
hey bone. its just slowed down recently as bosses move in on slacking workers

yeh,its almost like they expect us to work for our pay---sheesh
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARIEL (LEE) ADVISORY NUMBER ONE ISSUED AT 12:00 PM UTC
============================================

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ARIEL (EX-LEE)
11.5ºS 89.6ºE - 50 kts 984 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory
============================
At 12:00 pm UTC, Forte Tempête Tropicalé Ariel had 10 min sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The severe tropical storm was moving southwest at 7 knots.

System is located 3745 kms east northeast of La Reunion's coast.

LOL you two :)

NE hows things up your way?

Lake I see NWS issued lake effect warnings and watches by you. Hows your weather?
Hey,Lake,is Buffalo ready for us this weekend?
Bone,not much going on,a little windy,had one line of showers move through,but nothing heavy.
gotcha. constant steady rain here since late last night. yesterday we had fog all day, by the time the rain came around midnight fog had visablities under 100 feet at my house. I couldnt even see my neighbors homes.
waiting for the big temp drop later this afternoon
I see they all have dropped the coastal storm threat for next week.
already started here down to 42 degrees at my house 45 at my job. thats from a high of 51 at 2am
Nah, lunch time. Kinda hard to post during a work break.
yea noticed that myself. They are now talking about a clipper system around wednesday
Good afternoon!

This has the potential for great disaster in that area as Sidr came into bangladesh.I can assure you a tidal surge of about 20-25 feet is moving through the area and will most likely swallow 100's of homes.Here is a mimic animation which shows how perfect the central core of this tropical cylone was,and also shows a weakening face as it approached land.

Double eye-wall structure from CMISS

Landfall to me looks like 130-140mph.

www.Adrian's Weather.com
77. Bonedog 6:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
already started here down to 42 degrees at my house 45 at my job. thats from a high of 51 at 2am

wow,still 62 here.
dang NE looks like your going to tumble far with the temp diffrence.
I agree 23,not much coming out of there right now,but think over the coming week,the reports are going to be real bad.
83. NEwxguy 1:28 PM EST on November 15, 2007
I agree 23,not much coming out of there right now,but think over the coming week,the reports are going to be real bad.

Did you take a look at the mimic loop?Perfect core.
23 they got a little lucky that Sidr was in the process of an ERC just before landfall. If it hit with that perfect core it would have been unimaginable
82. Bonedog 6:28 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
dang NE looks like your going to tumble far with the temp diffrence.

I expect a 20-25 deg. drop
84. hurricane23 6:30 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
83. NEwxguy 1:28 PM EST on November 15, 2007
I agree 23,not much coming out of there right now,but think over the coming week,the reports are going to be real bad.

Did you take a look at the mimic loop?Perfect core.

yeh,it didn't seem to weaken much at all at landfall
Yeah, NE We'll kick your a**es on Sunday!!!!

As for the Lake effect...its begun. I left a desription of this system on your blog, bone. I need to know where the wind will come from...right now its WSW which it was supposed to be NE.
Also...I think my region is in for a Thanksgiving storm. Is that the clipper you speak of?
wow thats a big drop. We only slid 10 to 15. Tonight is where I will be seeing the lowest temps. NWS calling for 35 degrees BUT we have been below that every night this past week. I am expecting upper 20s. For some odd reason, or one I dont know, the NWS offices always seem to flub the forcasts up in my area because of our elevation. Its like their forcasts are for below 1000 feet and the few places that are above 1000 feet just get overlooked
Bone,I guess that is fortunate for the wall replacement at landfall,but the surge still must have been tremendous
85. Bonedog 1:30 PM EST on November 15, 2007
23 they got a little lucky that Sidr was in the process of an ERC just before landfall. If it hit with that perfect core it would have been unimaginable

Landfall intensity in my view was at about 135mph and also as it approached land the winds did expand.

Water will be the killer here and the death toll could very well be in the thousands.
Wow, due north until the last 60 miles or so before landfall...notable weakening and then a hardish turn to the east...

By the reports there appears to be a number of job openings for fishermen in the N Bay of Bengal; you would expect the fishermen to have some clue...
Anyone have the projection on windspeed and damage in calcutta? some of my coworkers are from thier, they are concerned. I apologized for outsource our hurricaine season to india.
Lake I answered you in my blog. But here is the current winds

hmmm... thats peculiar...lookie here:
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 36 °F / 2 °C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h / 5.1 m/s from the WSW
Pressure: 29.60 in / 1002 hPa (Falling)
Windchill: 32 °F / 0 °C
Visibility: 4.0 miles / 6.4 kilometers
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 2400 ft / 731 m
Mostly Cloudy 3600 ft / 1097 m
Overcast 5000 ft / 1524 m
(Above

Think I'll go outside and hold my finger up.
Lake I really dont reley on the wunderground info. For some reason it seems skewed usually. JMO

Use the SPC maps. They self update and are very accurate. They are the ones I used to spot the tornados during that outbreak a few weeks ago.
Lake FYI i just looked at the WU inof for my area and they are saying WNW when looking at the isobars and wind tacks it is NW to almost NNW. I called my house and asked the missus to look at my weather center. She said NW but it jumps to WNW I said thanks.
94. koneofdeath 12:43 PM CST on November 15, 2007
Anyone have the projection on windspeed and damage in calcutta? some of my coworkers are from thier, they are concerned. I apologized for outsource our hurricaine season to india.



Calcutta was in the NW quadrant of the storm, and the storm was pulling away at landfall, to the NE...wind would not have been as large an issue as flooding from tidal/storm surge...calcutta is too low to have come out unscathed, but I thnk thisone made the right turn (no pun intended) at the right time to help Calcutta out

Does anyone have any info on storm surge totals (or approximations) from Sidr?
wooo doggie! thanks bone. Trying to make heads or tails out of the intricasies of thermodynamics.
Link
how do I read that?
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARIEL (LEE) ADVISORY NUMBER TWO ISSUED AT 18:00 PM UTC
==============================================

At 18:00 pm UTC, Forte Tempête Tropicalé Ariel had 10 min sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The severe tropical storm was moving west-southwest at 7 knots.

System is located at 11.6ºS 88.9ºE or 3,670 kms east-northeast of La Reunion's coast.

Additional Information
=========================

Forecast Position and intensity
12 HRS - 11.9S 87.5E 50 kts
24 HRS - 12.0S 86.0E 50 kts

The system is tracking more west-southwest and the potential for intensification remains limited due to less favorable environmental conditions.
Theres actually no wind right now. Its warmer and raining.
Its Buffalo! If you dont like the weather...wait 20 min.
Lake example of what your looking at? When you link that site for some reason, I just realized it LOL, It goes to the radar image?

Ask away and I will give you the answer. Under Thermodynamic Fields, what specifically are you looking at?
also when you click on a specific parameter look to the upper right next to the Bold text and it says discritption. By clicking that you will get information onjust what your looking at on that specific chart.
So Bone, whats gonna happen with that system over WA?
good to know...let me see...
Flood-of course the fisherman know, but with so many people in poverty there, they're goin' for the catch, no matter what. It's going to be a mess.
Still waiting for the cold air

Overcast with Haze

61°F
(16°C) Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: S 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.33" (994.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 56°F (13°C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.











Lake the PNW system looks to run the Candian Boarder until the Upia then tracl SE into the Ohio valley then the models differ a little. Some take it back NE and drape a cold front over the NE. Some have it head due East twords the coast. Then there are one or two that drop it SE even more then off the Mid-Atlantic around VA/NC then NE again.

I will know more Sat or Sunday. Either way it should effect the NE wednesday or thursday in one form or another
This is a weather related link--although I do wonder if I am going to hell for lauging at it :) Link
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR WARNING NUMBER TWENTY-NINE ISSUED AT 15:00 PM UTC
=============================================

CYCLONE ADVICE FOR WEST-BENGAL/ORISSA [RED ALERT]

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over North Bay of Bengal moved slighly northwest and lays as of 15:00 UTC at 21.0N 89.5E close to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh. Latest radar observations of doppler radar station in Kolkata indicates that the system is now crossing West Bangladesh coast near 89.8E to the west of Khepupara.

Estimated Central Pressure is 944 hPa The satellite imageries show solid intense to very intense circular convective clouds around the system's center. Current Intensity is T6.0 with maximum sustained surface wind speed of 115-125 knots around the storm center causing the sea conditions to remain phenomenal.

STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT 6-7 METRES ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF WEST BANGLADESH AND 3-4 METERS ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVER COASTAL AREAS OF WEST BENGAL LIKELY AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

--
they still need to catch up, =P the next Bulletin should have more storm totals and damage reports if not later tonight.
I think I'm starting to understand this model. I didnt notice the "description" links. They are very helpful.

your welcome Lake. If you have any questions that the discriptions dont answer feel free to ask away


surface winds from SW
Thanks for the excellent link, hurricane23, to the MIMIC of Sidr's path through landfall

Last&lowest maximum sustained winds I could discern was 122knots (140miles per hour / 225kilometres per hour) after Sidr's core fully crossed the shoreline.
From my viewings, Sidr had maximum sustained winds of 126knots (145miles per hour / 233kilometres per hour) at the beginning of the core's landfall.
just noticed the really low pressure 29.33.
Lake have you looked at the Lake Effect fields yet under winter weather?
Yea NE your under the Low now

Doesn't ERC while lowering max sustained winds, cause area of strong winds to increase? It was rumored that Ivan underwent ERC as it made landfall causing a much wider path of destruction.
...EASTERN STATES...
AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC DAY 3...EXPECT A
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AT BAY FOR ALL BUT NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND.
bone,just looked at the radar and a wall of showers is about to hit me.
Area where Sidr made landfall is very similar topography to everglades. Will not disrupt circluation very quickly
yep, bone. the kinematic model.
very insightful resource. thanks again.
glad you like it Lake. Very useful tool. Especially in the winter to see the changes taking shape inside systems.

(Khan Godhuly/AFP/Getty)

People head for a cyclone shelter in the Khulna district, 320km south of Dhaka, as the storm sweeps across Bangladesh

Steve Bird

A fierce cyclone that has whipped up tidal waves is wreaking havoc and destruction on Bangladesh’s southwestern coast today.

Homes have been wiped out and trees uprooted in what officials described as the worst storm in more than 15 years.

The eye of Cyclone Sidr, visible in satellite images as a colossal swirling white mass bearing north from the Bay of Bengal, hit land in an impoverished coastal area near Bangladesh’s border with India.

Samarendra Karmakar, the head of the Bangladeshi meteorological department, said the storm matched one in 1991 that triggered a tidal wave that killed an estimated 138,000 people.
Related Links


However he added he was optimistic that, this time around, a major effort to evacuate villages and place people in special shelters could mean low-lying Bangladesh - one of the world’s poorest countries - would escape significant loss of life.

“The cyclone has battered Bangladeshi coastal areas. The velocity of the wind in that area is 220 to 240 kilometres (140 to 155 miles and hour),” he said.

“It is not less severe than the 1991 cyclone, in some places it is more severe. But we are expecting less casualties this time because the government took early measures. We alerted people to be evacuated early."

Bangladesh’s worst cyclone disaster was in 1970, when some half a million people died.

Officials in both Bangladesh and across the border in India have been evacuating hundreds of thousands of people from the area over the past 48 hours.

Mr Karmakar said rivers in the Sunderbans area, a vast mangrove forest straddling the India-Bangladesh border and the natural habitat of endangered Royal Bengal tigers, were also swelling fast as the storm moved north in the direction of the capital Dhaka.

An official in Barisal, 120 kilometres south of Dhaka, spoke of severe destruction.

“Many trees have been uprooted and houses and schools blown away. There are no reports of deaths so far. We can not get out to get much information because of the severe storm,” Mostofa Kamal, a district relief and rehabilitation officer, told AFP by telephone.

“The houses are made of only tin, bamboo and straw, which cannot withstand storms,” explained Mohammad Monjur-e-Elahi, another Bangladeshi district administrator.

Much of Bangladesh’s south and centre has bunkered down for the storm, with even the country’s main sea port at Chittagong, to the east of the cyclone’s path, also shut down.

Officials were also on high alert in neighbouring India’s coastal states of West Bengal and Orissa.

“The cyclone has a diameter of about 500 kilometres with a wall of clouds about 200 kilometres tall,” Ladu Ram Meena, deputy director of the weather centre for India’s eastern region.

Authorities in India have been told to halt rail and other transportation in some areas due to the likelihood of heavy floods.

Large-scale damage to power and communication lines was also expected.

“We have kept the army on standby,” Ashim Dasgupta , West Bengal Finance Minister, said.

Cyclone Sidr is expected to fizzle out on Saturday over India’s north eastern state of Assam and just south of the mountain kingdom of Bhutan.
also lake using the Basic UA/ Forcing field tab you get to see the air at each level. That is especially useful during a developing system. Over the course of a few hours you can see if the levels are lowering or lifting, where the surface fronts are forming and other things. Helps spot areas that may experience heavier snows then surrounding areas.


here is a link to help you figure out what helps me forcast winter weather Winter Weather Forcasting
Having a hard time imagining what would be left if this is all they started with...
Link
Afternoon all :)

Cancun 1 month 19 days 22 hours 18 minutes

It can't happen soon enough.. we have been under rain and wind warnings almost constantly the past few days... lake if any of this makes it to you... your going to get snow in feet not inches.
Floodman "Does anyone have any info on storm surge totals (or approximations) from Sidr?"

Decimus785 link to NMFC/JTWC shows 40foot/12metre seas on Bangledesh's coastline just prior to Sidr's landfall.
Latest surge forecast model, about what Dr Masters has in his entry.
thanks bone, I found a great link to the great lakes.
Your welcome Lake. Glad I could help
An article with local reports from districts in Bangladesh and links to a couple of other stories at the bottom.
It seems there might be a possibility that India/Bengladesh dodged a .50 caliber high-explosive round here, what with the nigh miraculous timing of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Unfortunately, it's high-explosive round impacting right next to you, so the explosion(storm surge) will almost certainly kill you. As it wasn't a direct hit though, there's a chance that you'll survive if you were wearing body armor(evacuated to hurricane shelter).

Sorry for the dark humor/analogy. Want to have hope that this wasn't as bad as feared, but know that this is almost certainly not the case. All we can do now is watch, and pray.


This is 48Hours off... doesnt look friendly for me!
I just looked at my forcast. Looks like I nailed it. Timing is slightly off but so far it is all there :)
no it doesnt Lake.
ewwww

hey Storm! hows it going?
Hey Storm
Hey,bone that looks a little scary.
Looking at the long range now and they think the Low off the coast will be disapated
I do believe I will be shoveling something this weekend!
The ERC didn't weaken Sidr enough to have an effect on surge. Also while weakening max winds slightly,may have spread strong winds over larger area.
you are probably correct Ivan
LOL can anyone guess from this chart the time that the front passed me?

That was rumored to have happened as Ivan made landfall. We didn't have access to newsmedia or internet at the time.
148. Bonedog 8:16 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
LOL can anyone guess from this chart the time that the front passed me?

Gee,can't tell at all,(really playing dumb)
I've ruled out11/15 9:00. My guess is 11/14 18:00
bbl
thats why I posted it NE thats one of the best frontal passage graphics I have seen in quite awhile also shows a great example of anafront passage
suspect mine will look like that in a few hours.
From Max Mayfield's Blog:

Storm Surge Could Mean Potential Tragedy For Bangladesh
Tropical Cyclone Sidr (the Arabic word for the jujube tree) made landfall this morning (EST) in western Bangladesh. The World Meteorological Organization office charged with providing the official tropical cyclone forecasts in the Bay of Bengal is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) within the India Meteorology Department in New Dehli.

Based on the latest web posting from the RSMC New Dehli (as well as forecasts from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center), Sidr was likely the equivalent of a Category 4 Hurricane in the Atlantic.

Millions of people live in the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh, and the biggest problem from Sidr will be the storm surge due to the funneling effects in the Bay of Bengal.

Past tragedies in this area include the Great Bhola Cyclone (Category 4) in 1970 that killed at least 300,000 people in Bangladesh (with some estimates up to 500,000) and the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone (Category 5) that killed 140,000 in that country.

Let us pray that history does not repeat itself.
Probably right NE. get ready for some chill to enter the air by you in the next few hours
Is the slight increase in dewpoint/temp at 3:00 warmfront?
no Ivan thats what the anafront did. It was a solid cold front the whole time
Anafront: A front at which the warm air is ascending the frontal surface up to high altitudes
Thanx. I've experienced winter weather quite a bit but never really studied subject as much as tropics.
I got the " anafront" but thank you.
No problem Ivan. I find winter weather alot more complex then tropical weather. Plus it effects more alot more then tropical weather so I guess I kinda learned it more then tropical
figured I say what the definaition was for those that didnt.
uh oh my comment disapeeared.

Hey guys in the body shop can I have it back please
A recent article from Bangladesh

Daily Star
when I lived in Tenn. temps would sometimes warm at night right before frontal passage. Wasn't "warm front" , just lift that would cause precip if moisture was present.
I enjoy winter weather. Being in S.Fl. where nothing happens in winter, I envy you
LOL folks up here envy florida and florida envys us.

Maybe everyone cold do a time share coop. In the summer florida folks live in there home and in winter we switch. Florida lives here we live there :) LOL
worcester which is about 20 miles west of me has just dropped to 50,so the drop should be soon.
one day of -20 wind chill and you would never get them back
I'm not most folks. As someone who enjoys a good weather event once in a while, winter in S.Fl is boring. Summer is more intresting. Seabreeze effect makes for interesting weather most summers.
I've spnt time in Madison Wisconsin in jan. Didn't mind it at all.
172. Ivansrvivr 8:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
I've spnt time in Madison Wisconsin in jan. Didn't mind it at all.

Actually don't mind the cold days,I have a sheltie so he loves the cold weather,we walk every night,you just wrap up in layers
Actually don't mind the cold days,I have a sheltie so he loves the cold weather,we walk every night,you just wrap up in layers

LOL my dog is the same way (plott hound). Doesnt mind the cold at all but the wife does. When I alk her, the dog not the wife, I dont mind the cold. I look at the stars while we walk
With cold, you can layer up clothing. Still cold, add layer. get hot, lose a layer. Not much you can do if it's hot outside. I enjoy the changing seasons, watching winter storms. I didn't really care for freezing rain. Nice to watch but causes too much damage.
174. Bonedog 8:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Actually don't mind the cold days,I have a sheltie so he loves the cold weather,we walk every night,you just wrap up in layers

LOL my dog is the same way (plott hound). Doesnt mind the cold at all but the wife does. When I alk her, the dog not the wife, I dont mind the cold. I look at the stars while we walk

yeh,I hear you ,its my favourite time of the day
Ivan,I enjoy the winter until about February then I've had enough.
That's why nashville was nice. By Feb. warm spells are already occurring. As a general rule last snow is by March 15.
well,our warm weather is over,winds shifted to the west and temp is down from 60 to 54 and dropping fast.
there ya go NE welcome to winter LOL
Don't feel bad, theyr'e predicting a "major" cold front. Possibly lows near 59!!! That will be total mayhem.
it was nice while it lasted bone
181. Ivansrvivr 9:16 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Don't feel bad, theyr'e predicting a "major" cold front. Possibly lows near 59!!! That will be total mayhem.

break out the sled dogs
break out the sled dogs

LOL

Floridians are scrambling right now for supplies... heating blankets, soup, hot coco, ect. Reports are scetchy at this time but word out of Dade county is that stores are nearly empty as this mini ice age approaches. Here, live from W23rd ST in Miami, is reporter Su Bzero.

Hi, Col Dsnap.. we are speaking with doomsday predictor Deend Iznear. Mr. Iznear what can you say to us about this approaching ice age?

Its going to get cold, then an invasion of northern snowbirds will overtake us all and deplete are already dwindeling supplies.

Back to you Col....
Tropical Cyclone WARNING #30 [FINAL]
========================
Cyclonic alert for Orissa–West Bengal coast [WARNING!!]

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over north bay of bengal moved northeast and crossed West Bangladesh coast near 89.8E around 1700 UTC and lays as of 1800 UTC near 22.5N 90.5E or about 100 kms south of Dhaka. The system is likely to move in a north-northeast direction and weaken further.

Estimated Central Pressure is 980 hPa. The satellite imageries show solid intense to very intense convective clouds around the system center
Searching Indian and Pakistani news sources for updates on Sidr, and not finding much.
The Times of India was all cheery today about global warming, leading with headlines:
-Rising India getting less sunshine
-'Forget Himalayan glaciers'
-It's official: The world is burning up
-'We have passed the tipping point'
oh yeah, and they don't want our tourist dollars anymore:
-Dollar falling, foreign tourists to pay in Rs

Pakistan (formerly West Pakistan, with Bangladesh being former East Pakistan) is having it's own problems with the Constitution being suspended, martial law, nationwide protests, and the Taliban taking over villages in the northwest. I did gather one interesting piece of information in this article from the Pakistani paper "Dawn":

"Nearly 10 million Bangladeshis live in vulnerable points along the coast, but there are storm shelters for only half a million people, a disaster management official said."

Personally I do not trust the news media of any country or corporation, but some things cannot be hidden, and I feel confident that the truth of what has happened with Sidr and it effects on the people there will be coming out slowly over the next few days and weeks.

Hope everyone on this blog has a good one today, even if there is a chilling effect ongoing.

"Ariel" became the first hurricane in the southern hemisphere for the 2007-2008 cyclone season according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone 03S [LEE] maximum sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts up to 80 knots.
Snowbird hunting season starts next month.
good afternoon all
Yea Ivan i know. My condos are all rented from Dec 1 through April 30th :)

Just dont shoot any in the Tampa area please use tag and realease methods LOL
Bone; that news report would have likely been in spanish. Growing up here I understand most of what I hear when people here speak spanish. it was strange when I left here realizing that people everywhere don't speak spanish.
gotcha Ivan

Floridians est evolviendo ahora para las mantas de calefaccie las fuentes..., sopa, coco caliente, ect. Los informes son scetchy en este tiempo pero la palabra fuera del condado de Dade es que los almacenes son casi vacpues esta mini edad de hielo se acerca. Aqui vivo del ST de W23rd en Miami, es el reportero Su Bzero.

Hi, Col Dsnap.. estamos hablando con el predictor doomsday Deend Iznear. Sr. Iznear quede usted decir a nosotros sobre esta edad de hielo que se acerca?

El su ir a conseguir frentonces una invasie snowbirds norte nos alcanzarodos y agotar dwindeling ya fuentes.

De nuevo a usted Col....


Severe Tropical Storm Ariel.
Bonedog, Telemundo is hiring.
Well according to the JTWC, TC Lee (Ariel is the new name) has reached hurricane intensity on the SSHS
hahah Ivan. Gotta love online translators
=====================================================================

RSMC - Meteo France
Southwest Indian Ocean


Severe Tropical Storm Lee-Ariel(03U/02R)

Located: 11.65S-89.6E

Movement: Towards the southwest at 7 knots

Central Pressure: 984 HPA

Maximum Winds: 50 Knots

=====================================================================

Warning Per RSMC
As of (1200 UTC) November 15, Metro France reports Severe Tropical Storm Ariel to be located near 11.5S 89.6E. The system has maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 50 kt (95 km/h, 60 mph), gusting to 70 kt (130 km/h, 80 mph). It has a minimum central pressure of 984 hPa (mbar), and is moving south-southwest.

As of 0600 UTC November 15, the JTWC reports Tropical Cyclone 03S (Lee) to be located at 10.8S 90.4E. The system has maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 55 kt (95 km/h, 60 mph). It has a maximum associated wave height of 16 ft (4.9 m).

=====================================================================



=====================================================================

Satellite Imagery

Posting it too quickly gave it away.
Ok,I try to learn something new everyday on here,why is it ariel now,formerly Lee
201. NEwxguy 9:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Ok,I try to learn something new everyday on here,why is it ariel now,formerly Lee


it is Ariel now because it has moved into a new area of responsibility. And the policy is to rename the cyclone. So for a 24 hour period after moving into the new area, it will be named Ariel-Lee, then after that period it will just be called Ariel. They probably give it a hyphenated name for a little while to avoid confusion and make it so people know it is the same cyclone.
answered. Thanks extreme thats what i thought
201. NEwxguy 5:50 PM AST on November 15, 2007 Hide this comment.
Ok,I try to learn something new everyday on here,why is it ariel now,formerly Lee


Becuz it moved from the SE Indian Ocean into the SW Indian Ocean area of responsibility. It was named Lee in the SE Indian Ocean but when it crossed 90E into the SW Indian Ocean it was given a new name since it moved from one area of responsibility to another. Like a storm moving from the Atlantic Ocean across Central America into the Pacific and vice versa.
202. extreme236 9:53 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
201. NEwxguy 9:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Ok,I try to learn something new everyday on here,why is it ariel now,formerly Lee

it is Ariel now because it has moved into a new area of responsibility. And the policy is to rename the cyclone. So for a 24 hour period after moving into the new area, it will be named Ariel-Lee, then after that period it will just be called Ariel. They probably give it a hyphenated name for a little while to avoid confusion and make it so people know it is the same cyclone.

Ok,I understand,like if a system in the carribean crosses central america into the Pacific
Whenever a cyclone moves from the Australian region of responsibility to that of Mauritius, it is given a hyphenated name comprising the names from both regions for a period of about 24 hours. Thereafter it is known by the South West Indian Ocean name.
thanks guys,I looked at it and didn't realize the indian ocean was divided like that.
you know what is odd though

when a named cyclone from the Southwest Indian Ocean moves into the Central Southeast Indian Ocean it keep the name that was assigned by Mauritius or Madagascar.
I was teaching Bangladeshi children here in the UK when the storm of 1991 hit. Twenty five children lost family members that day. Now retired, I am no longer teaching them, but tonight I pray for all the children I taught, and for all children (and adults) in Bangladesh.
Actually, I looked on Wikipedia and the policy is now that a Atlantic cyclone that remains intact over into the east pacific will retain its name and not get a new one. However if the sfc circulation dissapates and the remnants redevelop into a tropical cyclone, then it gets a new name. Although none of that has occured since the policy change in 2001.
Space News...

GIANT COMET: "Formerly, the sun was the largest object in the Solar System," says University of Hawaii astronomer David Jewett. "Now, Comet 17P/Holmes holds that distinction." On Nov. 9th, a team of Hawaii astronomers led by Rachel Stevenson measured the diameter of the comet's expanding debris cloud: 1.4 million kilometers, slightly larger than the sun itself.

Morning all,

Looks like Sidr has moved eastwards whilst making landfall, bringing it closer to the Brahmaputra portion of the delta.


Interesting unoffical reading from Barisal as before the surge arrived and station went offline:

Link




Wind readings of almost 100mph from the NE - and well outside the eyewall. The most destructive winds near the centre of the storm will hit this site from the SSE and be much more intense...


All available stations where the remains of Sidr's CDO lie are now currently offline from reporting...
10000ft ceiling surpries me. I would expect it to be much lower.
Forget about getting any information on Sidr from the newsmedia now. Barry Bonds was just indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice. Priorities, priorities, priorities
456,

I think back in 2003 they changed the rules for naming systems that cross C.America into the Pacific.

It'll get a new name if it is downgraded to a depression, but if it maintains tropical storm strength it'll retain its Atlantic name.
100000m is outer space!
216. thelmores 4:38 PM CST on November 15, 2007
100000m is outer space!



10000 ft isn't, though you still need Oxygen

215. sullivanweather 6:34 PM AST on November 15, 2007 Hide this comment.
456,

I think back in 2003 they changed the rules for naming systems that cross C.America into the Pacific.

It'll get a new name if it is downgraded to a depression, but if it maintains tropical storm strength it'll retain its Atlantic name.


didnt know
456,

Have to love the blogs. We all learn something new everyday...all of us.

:0)
They have 5 zeros: 100thousand feet and 100thousand metres...
...which denote ~18.9miles/~30.5kilometres and 100kilometres/~62.1miles respectively. ie They aren't measures of the same distance.

Nor are those likely ceilings. Maximum height of a hurricane is only 20kilometres or so.
Just an incredible cyclone. The Sci Guy from the Houston Chronicle certainly things highly of Dr. M, he uses a lot of his information in his own blog. It just sucks that it took until the day it hit to get any attention. Had this been a US strike, this thing would have been all over the media for a week. A lot of people are going to perish and it's a shame that 3rd world countries like Bangladesh do not have the same resources as we do in our very wealthy nation.
Tropical Cyclone Guba

223. GBlet
WOW< local NWS is calling for "non liquid precip" for Thanksgiving! Yippy! Any moisture would be helpful before we lose the winter wheat.
Why is it when there's nothing more than a popcorn fart of a thunderstorm that might hit "Florida" this blog goes hog wild but when there is a significant cyclonic impact on the other side of the world very few acknowledge? The potential loss of human life and souls is far greater than anything ever experienced in US?
The infrared image below shows a storm system over Eastern Europe. It also shows the snow cover over Russia determined by the relatively low infrared temperatures.



This water vapor imagery shows a cold core low heading towards the Northeast.

Gblet - For us Floridians, would that be snow?
Visible imagery of the Northeast Atlantic Low taken by NOAA-17 satellite

Some Shots.....

Gulf of Alaska





South-Central Pacific



Bonedog-if that comet is that huge maybe if i knew where to look i could see it at night without a telescope.
Well I guess Dr. Masters cares at least.
A low pressure system over the Western Mediterranean Sea

As respected as StormW is, I am in complete shock and awe that he didn't even mention Sidr in his blog??? I thought this was a blog to discuss tropics and the most catastrophic event in the last decade is getting no attention! What is wrong with everyone? Those poor people in Bangladesh are just as important as US! As far as I'm concerned it's a total lack of respect to Dr. Masters as well and his efforts in portraying this horrific impact.
East Coast Cold Front

Weather 456 That image of the Mediterranean sea has very interresting colors to it.
There already reports of damaged homes in Bangladesh


Families gathered their loved ones and as many possessions as they could find for the evacuation
Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology - Queensland

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA [CAT 2]
11.2ºS 146.7ºE - 55 knots 980 hPa

Tropical Cyclone STORM WARNING
==========================
At 0:00 am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 2) had 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 75 knots moving southeast at 5 knots.

Storm Warning Area
====================
30 NM from the storm's center

Gale Warning Area
==================
90 NM from the storm's center

Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 980 hPa 55 knots
24 hours = 970 hPa 60 knots
A small eye appears to be forming with Guba:

If you check the comments in the last couple of days in the archives, cantoriesnumber1fan, you'll notice that we've been paying more attention than the US government and news media, more than other governments and news media, more than the Indian government and news media, and more than the Bangladesh government and news media.
Bangladesh finally took notice about 24hours before landfall; I believe less. India waited until nearly landfall before putting out a warning that didn't wishcast-to-minimize the threat.

Right now there is a lull in Sidr news, so it's a bit much to expect us to have a discussion about the after-effects based on little-to-no hard facts.
Its wind snowing here in the south-east.No acc- here where I live,2800f.t. 1-3 inches 4000+feet in N.C. Called my cousin and they said the wind was blowing too hard for it to stick.They did have a dusting so far,(3500f.t).
Wind advisory and snow advisorys were issued in the mountains.



The sad thing is, radar wont pick up the snow!!
released by IMD at 0:00 am UTC

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 21:00 UTC
==============================================

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over Bangladesh moved north-northeast and weakened rapidly into a Cyclonic Storm. It lays as of 21:00 pm UTC over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura near 23.5N 91.0E or about 70 kms southwest of Agartala. The system is likely to move in a north-northeasterly direction and continue to weaken overland.

Under its influence, Rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy
falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls accompanied by gale wind speed
reaching 50-70 km/h are likely over districts of Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, south Assam
and Meghalaya during next 24 hours.

Rain/thundershowers at many places with isolated heavy falls are also likely over
Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off West Bengal Coast
during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen of the above areas are advised not
to venture into the sea.
Cantoriesfan, we've been talking about Sidr all day. I'm not trying to be rude, but your statement was wrong.
North Galaxy, ground likely too warm for anything but a heavy snow to stick
ivan as the old sayin goes the lights are on but nobody home and from what ive seen on the blog sidr been on here for a few days of disscussion or at least everytime time ive checked in
snowing in Southern WV also according to family
And to insult StormW because he discusses another subject c'mon! Not much info gets out from over there and Dr. Masters has covered every aspect possible. I recall seeing Sidr mentioned on StormW's blog in days past. The point of having other feature blogs is to cover different subjects.
I see we have a tiger and a leopard now. This is the wild feline show.
Evening all.

Hopefully Sidr's landfall will not be as devastating as other storm before this. At least the wind speed moderated a bit.

I'm also wondering how far inland that storm surge propagated. The estuaries in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta are quite wide.
So far only one death has been reported from Cyclone Sidr, when an elderly man travelling in a ferry was tipped overboard.

An official at the Bangladesh Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief said damage to property and infrastructure would be severe.

Most houses in the affected areas are made only from tin, bamboo and straw.
cantories the reason i care more about the popcorn fart is my families in Florida not bangledesh .Sorry for not caring as much but i do care just not as much .
As I watch the news reports come in, the numbers keep rising. Hopefully they've really made some progress since the last major hurricane. There still aren't nearly enough shelters in areas at risk. Here's one of the most recent reports:

DHAKA (Reuters) - A super cyclone packing winds of 250 kph (155 mph) battered Bangladesh coasts overnight, killing at least 66 people, local officials said on Friday.

They said hundreds of people were injured and scores were missing, they said, but Cyclone Sidr was now losing strength and rain had mostly stopped.

"The casualty figures will rise," said an official in Barisal, one of the worst hit districts...
Severe Cyclone Kills 150 in Bangladesh

"The extent of the damage caused by Sidr was expected to be severe and the number of casualties high, officials said.

"Many trees have been uprooted and houses and schools blown away," said Mostofa Kamal, a district relief official in Barisal, 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Dhaka.

Southern areas were plunged into darkness as electricity supply lines were snapped and "innumerable" homes flattened, the private UNB news agency reported, quoting its correspondents.

Wind speeds of 220-240 kilometres (140-155 miles) an hour were recorded in what officials described as one of the worst storms in years.

Tens and possibly hundreds of thousands of people in the southwest spent the night in special evacuation shelters in a bid to avoid the massive casualties of previous cyclones.

Although officials said they were optimistic the death toll would not be in the thousands, they feared widespread destruction.

"We expect the damage to be enormous," said an official of the disaster management and relief ministry."
Death toll now 242: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/11/16/cyclone-bangladesh.html?ref=rss
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA BULLETIN ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC - UPGRADED TO CATEGORY THREE SYSTEM
===============================================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 3) located near 11.4S 146.7E had 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts up to 90 knots. the system is moving south-southeast at 3 knots.

Central Pressure is 970 hPa

Storm Warning Area
====================
30 NM from the storm's center

Gale Warning Area
==================
90 NM from the storm's center

Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 965 hPa 70 knots
24 hours = 965 hPa 70 knots

----
track forecast looks like it'll require Tropical Cyclone Watches again for the Eastern Australia coastline between Lockhart River and Cape Melville.
Cyclone Sidr kills 242 in Bangladesh...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071116/ap_on_re_as/bangladesh_cyclone

(link works but wunderground won't make it clickable...sorry.)
BBC's story on Sidr:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7097678.stm
Hey, got it to link correctly!

Sad news:
We have mounted a search by civilians, army and police, and the casualty figures will rise," an official in Barisal, one of the worst hit districts, told Reuters.

"We have been virtually blacked out all over the country," a disaster management official in southern Mongla, another badly affected area, told the agency.

Warmth to all the grieving
and to all in harm's way.

229: Bonedog-if that comet is that huge maybe if i knew where to look i could see it at night without a telescope.

Easy to see:look directly overhead around 7pm and it is the fuzzy blob just slightly to the left of three brightish stars. It is in the constellation Perseus which is between Pegasus (big square in SW and Cassiopea the big W high in the E sky. Honestly, you can't miss it.

My heart goes out to all those missing loved ones in Bangladesh/Orissa. Didn't make news over here either, BBC did not cover it, shame on them with large immigrant population from that part of the world in this country. They did cover Barry Bonds though and no-one over here is really interested in baseball!

Morning Folks :)

Sadly I see the death toll is slowly rising as new reports come out.

I pray for all those whos lives were effected both directly and indirectly from that system :_(

Sidr is just about gone. Imagine the result of orographic lifting against the Himalayas!

Guba

Looks like Guba is going around a high pressure area - or could that be a ULL causing this radical shift?

We are getting a little rain here in Nassau this morning due to the frontal passage. If temperatures dip as it is suggested they will, I may have to wear a sweater today. After all, it may never get over 75 degrees . . . brrr . . . cold!

LOL
morning Baha. I was thinking the same thing about the Himalayas. Imagine what the weather has turned into on Everest?
260 killed, thousands missing in cyclone ravaged Bangladesh
Dhaka (PTI): Over 260 people were killed and thousands others, mostly fishermen, went missing as one of the worst cyclones in decades battered Bangladesh's southwestern coast, flattening most houses and disrupting power supply throughout the country.

At least 500 trawlers with over three thousand fishermen have been missing since cyclone Sidr, packing winds upto 240 km, made landfall at Khulna-Barisal coast on Thursday evening and swept central Bangladesh, including capital Dhaka.

Army backed by air force choppers was called in to help in rescue efforts with the death toll reaching 261, officials said.

Nearly 118 people were killed in Barguna district, one of the worst affected, they said, adding they were still waiting for reports from other devastated areas including Dubla Chor, an island in the Subdarbans forest, and districts of Khulna and Barisal.

Thousands of acres of paddy fields were damaged with lowlands being flooded in Patuakhali district, where 43 people died, officials said.

Nearly 80 percent of shanties and thatched houses in coastal areas were destroyed, officials said

Power supply to entire Bangladesh, including Dhaka, was disrupted with the failure of the country's national grid. Officials said that only 10 per cent of the demand was being met.

The other affected coastal districts were Pirojpur, Jhalakathi, Bagerhat, Satkhira and Jessore.
ooo looky what I found...

Link

Morning Bone. I wouldn't want 2 be climbing there this weekend . . . :o)

Considering how rainy much of India is and Tibet's corresponding dryness, orographic lifting must be a major part of their climate / weather patterns.
Kewl.

I see the warmest it's likely to get is -25 . . . wow.

And I can't BELIEVE no one at the Mount Everest Ski Resort is sponsoring that page . . . lol
oh most definatley.

according to that link winds of 30 to 35mph but with -15* temps the wind chill is in the -50*s.

It was amazing how fast the Himalays spun down Sidr.
Anyway, I gotta head out. Work calls.
If Sidr had gone ashore over the Mississippi or OBX, the SE would have had rain all the way to the Canadian border.

I think even Myanmar, along with Bangladesh and India, will see some river flooding as a result of Sidr.
yea I noticed the Everest ski resort LOL I had no idea they had that. Might have to add that to my "must do before I did list". Imagine that story around the camp fire?

"Dude you cant belive the trip I had to Colorado. We boarded the sickest runs in the back country."

"Bro. Thats nothing... I boarded Everest this spring. Talk about sick. Bro its the roof of the world."

"Dude..."
Last comment:

At least 328 people have now been confirmed dead following a powerful storm that lashed south-western Bangladesh with winds of up to 150mph last night.

Link
each report raises the toll. Sad day in that part of the world :_(
The Uncultured Project writes eye witness accounts from Dhaka, Bangladesh:

“It felt like something out of a movie. I was in a car on the way home - it was fifteen minutes to midnight. There wasn’t a soul on the street and the only sounds you could hear were the rain beating down on the streets, the noise of the wind, and the car’s engine. It was pitch black too - every home, apartment, and building as far as the eye could see had no electricity. Then - all of a sudden - a blinding bright light and a roar erupts right next to the car - just outside of my side of the car. My window then gets showered in glowing sparks.

I wasn’t in any danger - it was just a transformer exploding. But, for the first time in this whole time in Bangladesh - I was scared…
I love number counting. It is like the "good old days of Vietnam" Have a nice day.
278. leftovers 12:14 PM GMT on November 16, 2007

Huh??
At 4 pm EST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 3] with central
pressure 970 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 11.4 south,
longitude 146.7 east, which is about 390 km east northeast of Lockhart River and
480 km north northeast of Cooktown.

The cyclone is currently near stationary but is expected to drift southward for
the next day or two while slowly intensifying. It is not expected to cause gales
on the Queensland coast within the next 48 hours.

In Papua New Guinea at least three people are dead and about 2000 villagers have been forced from their homes following four days of heavy rain and flooding associated with the Cyclone Guba.

Cheers AussieStorm
How often does this site update as Cyclone Guba is still listed as a Tropical Storm yet our (as previously posted) Bureau of Meteorology has it now classified as a Category 3 Cyclone. Anyone able to explain this to me.
Cheers AussieStorm

Community Participation:

You have posted 196 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 36371 comments in all blogs.

"I need a bigger office and some staff.LOL!"
LOL Pat

Aussie dont have a clue as to when the site updates. Some folks previously on other systems commented on the same thing. That the site didnt match latest information.

CNN just reporting death toll at 500 and expected to rise. This was on the TV dont know about their website
very,sad,it's raising.if it keep rising like this every hour we would have tons of death at the end of this month
Bangladesh
By Somini Sengupta
Published: November 16, 2007



NEW DELHI: Packing winds of over 100 miles an hour, the furious cyclone that swept across the low-lying watery edges of southern Bangladesh late Thursday downed trees, sent mobile telephone towers crashing and swept away mud and thatch homes. By midday Friday local time, the death toll of Cyclone Sidr, as it was called, stood at roughly 240, said an official reached by telephone at the control room of the Disaster Management ministry of Bangladesh.

Long vulnerable to nature's fury, Bangladesh stands to suffer even more from extreme weather events like this as a result of human-induced climate change, scientists say. It was too early for government officials and independent relief workers to quantify the total scale of damage, though it was clear that by Bangladeshi standards, the impact would likely be relatively low.

In 1991, a tropical storm claimed roughly 140,000 lives. Bangladeshi relief agencies have since then developed early warning systems and storm shelters to help people evacuate before disaster strikes.

The Associated Press reported that 650,000 people had moved out of their homes.

The storm weakened by Friday. Still, it brought distress to some of the most vulnerable people on Earth.


Preliminary reports from the fragile delta regions of the Bay of Bengal indicated that rivers had swelled so high that water punched through mud embankments and washed away paddy and vegetable fields, ruining the year's earnings for peasants who live off of those lands.

In one district, called Shatkhira, according to local journalists, roughly 5,000 mud homes collapsed back into the ground. Local relief workers for Caritas, the Catholic relief agency, reported that an entire island in Barisal district was submerged under at least six feet of water and houses were blown away by winds.

Even the capital, Dhaka, though not directly in the path of the storm, felt its punch. Electricity towers were down, darkening the entire country for several hours overnight, and much of Dhaka remained without power for most of the day Friday, which also pinched the water supply.

Relief and rehabilitation efforts are likely to be a crucial test for the army-backed caretaker government in charge of Bangladesh.

The Indian side of the Bay of Bengal delta was largely spared. Government officials there estimated that 100,000 people had left their homes in search of safety, and while some trees and roofs had been blown away on the deltaic islands known as the Sunderbans, no casualties were reported and people had already begun returning home.

The United Nations Development Program, in pressing world leaders to take immediate steps to address climate change, argues that the increased frequency of droughts, floods and storms stands to hit the world's poor hardest and exacerbate poverty in places like Bangladesh. The agency is due to come out with details in its annual Human Development Report later this month.

Julfikar Ali Manik contributed reporting from Dhaka.
Sidr IR Satellite Imagery [.JPG~120K]

Link

- JMV 3.0 Data [text]
Link
another slow day in the blog.

Sad day because of Sidr
Morning folks......Bone....Pat
morning Baja
Good Morning all!

Its amazing how little news we are getting from Bangladesh. Did find a little on Reuters, reporting more than 500 confirmed dead. Trawlers missing, homes collasping... ~ Link
It's sad that so many are killed in storms like this in places like this. MY take on this, so far, is that it would SEEM that the government's efforts to get the word out have paid off in that I would have expected the initial numbers to be much higher there. Sad, yes...but I think maybe not as bad as what they've seen in the past.
Mornin Miss Beach
morning beach.

Agree with your statement Baja. The fact that word got out and that they have built shelters has helped. We all know the numbers will rise in the coming days and weeks but at least the toll will not be as high as it could have been.
Baja,

True, authorities did a good job getting the word out to the people in a country with few resources for doing so. Many lives were spared, but I am still dreading the news that comes out ~ when we finally get some.
Baja, Pat, Bone

Here is one of the few videos I have seen
It would SEEM (to me) that because of how Sidr picked up speed and moved through pretty quickly that THAT may have really been a blessing (if one can call it that)
actually Baja an increase in foward speed would add to the destruction by amplifying the winds on the NE quadrant. But you are correct that it dissipated quickly and thus spared alot more folks from massive flooding.

Amazing what the Himalayas will do to a storm
"I need a bigger office and some staff.LOL!"


Pat, I've said that about you all along...
Windy day in the Northeast. Very Windy

Hey folks, I asked Jeff and he said it would be ok to ask here. As many of you have probably noticed, the mainstream media has all but ignored Sidr.

We at nowpublic are trying to cover it, but could use your help.

http://www.nowpublic.com/weather/cyclone-sidr-ravages-india-and-bangladesh-328-killed

Any information, pictures, satellite imagery or links to blogs/stories would be appreciated so we can get a better idea of the aftermath.

Feel free to email me any questions you might have,

Rob Walker
rwalker@nowpublic.com
I hear ya on that. That would make sense. I was thinking in terms of moving slower.....dropping more rain for a longer period of time. Flooding. A little more wind...alot less flooding
Bone? Bet THAT'S some nasty wind chill *shivers* brrrrrrrr
Morning, folks...
Hey Flood.

Rob, will do. But it seems very little news is coming out yet.
Mornin Flood (tips foil hat)
Hey Flood.

Baja wind chills are currently running mid to upper 30s. But winds are relatively light still (10 to 20mph gusting 25) but are forcasted to go 25 to 35mph gusting 40 which will plummet the windchills. Its only 40 to 45 degrees around here


Ok. WHATS wrong with this picture. You're 40-45...and it's 46 down here in the panhandle!!!
gotta love a big cold front LOL
LOL.......Not!!
Good Morning, a quick moment b/4 I am off to work. Sidr looks very nasty. I always wonder why the fisherman do not get ample warning, but I guess it's all to remote. Cold front came in strong to the Fl Gulf coast last night. Brought in some wind swell, time to pull out the wetsuit --groan, but I won't be able to get in it today, grrrrrr. Work at the barn calls - better get my warmest hoody.
Baja, Beach, Bone *tips foil hat in direction of Baja and Beach*

Morning S'mom
:) well at least its going to 62 down by you today. We hit our high temp last night. Its staying in the lower 40s till sunday here with snow showers likely Saturday night
Hey Baha, bonedog --I've been working too much, really missed THIS playground!
GM to all
Bonedog, any decent waves your way???? what's your water temp.?
Surfmom, good morning!
Howdy, NE
Hey Flood & all...

Baja, I've got 43 w/ a wind at about 10mph. Really chilly... No flip flops today. ;~(
Light Rain and Breezy

41°F
(5°C) Humidity: 82 %
Wind Speed: NW 21 G 38 MPH
Barometer: 29.34" (993.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 36°F (2°C)
Wind Chill: 32°F (0°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

Not nice weather out there this morning
decent waste to chest high glassy 20 to 30knt offshores. water in the mid 50s though. Need the 5/3 and 8mm boots and gloves. No hood though yet

BTW good morning surfmom
Gulf of Mexico water temp in SRQ is 69 degrees ---ahhh the courage to surf these cold fronts diminishes with age. I'll get in soon enough, but it hurts more and more each year.
Floodman good to see you!
Morning NE

Hahaha! NO! It's NOT a flipflop day (again, unless youre a tourist).

Im off to work...hope y'all have a great day today!!
morning NE

LOL 69 degrees!! LOL thats rash guard and boardshorts weather
And good to see you, surfmom!

Baja, don't let them work you too hard!
Oh, well I am home from school today. My asthma is starting to act up....again! I went yesterday to school and I was fine.

Here it got down to 50.
*Off topic*

Question: Someone posted last week about the Seminole and Choctaw Indians in the panhandle of FLorida using the number of Acorns to determine what kind of hurricane season was ahead. Does anyone know what the theory is? We have more acorns this year than I can ever remember.
Have a good one Baja!

Morning GeekJock! *LOL*
Pretty wild here the last 30 min.

The snow band brought a steady period of snow for about 20 minutes before becoming intermitent. At its height visibility was about 1sm. Winds shifted around as the band came through but as it started to taper we got a few good gusts out of the NW around 35mph. Temperature dropped from 35 to 31.

In total about 0.1" of snow accumulated on grassy surfaces.
Beach I belive it was stated that when the acorns fall your ok when none fall then it means trouble
Howdy, 'geek
Bonedog - the magic words - GLASSY - I'd get in for the glassy, I can handle water temp mid-fifties, I've been in as low as 50, but I swore never again after that. I really am not comfortable in rubber thicker then a 3/4 - it's like an iron condom (LOL)butttttttt if it's glassy I guess i could be convinced.
nice sullivan :)

supposed to see lake effect bands tonight and then more predominant saturday night. Cant wait :)
Bonedog --I know you have every right to laugh --does having very little body fat give me some sympathy? Plus I'm a southern girl --very thin blood LOL
Hola ya'll.. :-)
Thanks Bone... thought I would record it for the next few years and see how it correlates, would be interesting to see if there is any accuracy to the Indians theory!

Surf, too cold to get in! Even w/ the Rubber!

Sullivan, snow ~ brrrrrr!
mornin! Snow missed my house...love that niagara peninsula! Its like an umbrella of sorts.
GREAT to visit with you all this morning, :) It has started my day with a smile. Got to get to the barns. Take care all and prayers to those in India.
Beachfoxx,
It's only 43 degrees? Where is Niceville FL.
That is a really cool name for a city!! I am down here in West Palm.
exactly surfmom. I have a 5/4/3 with 10mm boots and gloves and the dang thing weighs close to 18lbs. Talk about a PITA. But when its glassy chest to head high, with nice offshores and water in the 30s and air in the teens you need it.

I used to go all the time year round but since getting wiser (ie older) I dont go in under 50 unless its warrented
its ok surfmom. I laugh now but when I used to live in florida I remeber putting on a hoody at 60s degrees because it felt cold. Now back in NJ 60 is still Tshirt weather.

December 8th is when they come out with their first 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast. Well, at least it was Dec 8th last year. Wether they do it like the first certain day of the month, I don't know.
Geek, Niceville is just across bay from Destin. About 5 miles across Toll Bridge.

Surfmom ~ LOL anything below 60F is cold to me! And I am on the panhandle, so we do get some really cold weather!

I hear the laughing and coughing from all of you up north. But she's right, we southern girls are not meant to have cold weather!
Geek, I have always hesitated to say I lived in Niceville... people always give me a look *like* "Are you for real?" *LOL*

Or like the guy at the MAC store.... "Have a Niceville Day!"

Seems it brings a joke and a smile to most peoples mind!
Ok, nice. I been in -20 below before. That's not cold. Only because I could not feel anything. LOL. It was in Montreal.

I like cold when you can see your breath. Here it's a big deal, it happens only 3-4 times a year.
for folks that dont understand what we are talking about...

surfing in florida in winter


surfing in the northeast in winter



notice the amount of exposed skin?
Link

Article on Sidr's wrath.
Geek,

grew up in Mountians of East TN... can remember walking to school w/ wet hair and by the time I got to school hair would be frozen! LOL
Bone,

I pick surfing in FL!
Uh oh. Frozen Hair Is Never Good.

How cold does it have to be to see your breath?
Winters haven't been to bad the last couple of years,haven't had any of those wind chille days -20 to -30,I think were due this year.
That article said that the death toll was only at 425. I know they are probably still counting, but considering past cyclones in that region and the size and power behind Sidr, I think thats amazing that there are so few deaths! I expected in the thousands...
Geek, not real sure but I do know it varies depending on Dew Point.
How cold can you surf?
356. HurricaneGeek
How cold can you surf?


*LOL* Depends on Dew Point! ROFLMCPO
thats from a northerners point of view


here it is from a southerners


florida in winter


northeast in winter



notice the diffrence
Lake,

I have heard 508 deaths from Sidr, but as you said reports are just coming in. Slowly.
Ok thanks Beachfoxx. I thing it has to be less then half your body temperaure ouside. So If you body temperature is 98.6. It has to be like 48-49 or so.

Us here is do for snow. We got it once in 1977. I was not born yet. BUT it DID SNOW IN MIAMI>>>FLORIDA. NOT OHIO. Jan 19, 1977
*LOL* Depends on Dew Point! ROFLMCPO
---
LMAO...now I know what "ROFLLM_ _ O" means. Whats the CP mean?
LOL
Geek as long as the waters not frozen we can surf.


I personally have been in 34 degree water with 10* outside air temp, winds at 20knts making the windchill -9. Get about 15 minutes in water 30 in the truck with heaters blasting. We rotated that way for 8 hrs of great surfing. BTW it was snowing at the time also
*LOL* Bone, its a matter of perspective!

361. HurricaneGeek 8:42 AM CST on November 16, 2007
*LOL* Depends on Dew Point! ROFLMCPO
---
LMAO...now I know what "ROFLLM_ _ O" means. Whats the CP mean?
LOL


Cutie PaTootie!
WOW bonedog!!
Bone,

That makes me hurt just thinking about it!

Cutie PaTootie!
---
Never heard that one before..LOL :')
Even so, there's not going to be a 100,000 plus count like there was in the past. I thinks thats great that Bangledesh has done a better job protecting its people. The actual storm damage and devestation left to properties and wildlife is another story. Still waiting to hear about the Bengal Tigers. anyone know anything?
OK guys, I am staring not to breath well again. So I am going to say bye. I BBL
nice chatting!
Gotta run!

Have a Niceville Day!

TTYL
its a northern thing Beach. Most of our best surf happens in the winter. ESA even has a contest in Febuary up here because the surf is more consistant.

Haven't done it in a while though (winter surfing) my body can't take it. I usually get maybe 1 or 2 sessions in but only if its phenominal. In the winter I usually stick to the heavy clothing and strap the snowboard to the roof and head up Vermont or Colorado way.
Later Geek and Beach
Bone,

Either way... it makes me cold just thinking about it!

Have a good one.... Later!
The tigers have survived cyclones for millenia -- they'll probably do OK this time too.

I'll be surprised if the final human toll doesn't rise significantly as people migrate back toward the sea.
Zap
281 AussieStorm "How often does this site update as Cyclone Guba is still listed as a Tropical Storm yet our Bureau of Meteorology has it now classified as a Category 3 Cyclone."

An American tropical cyclone must have sustained winds of greater than 119kph/74mph to be labeled as a Cat.1 Hurricane

However the Australian Bureau of Meteorology doesn't classify cyclones by sustained winds but rather by maximum gusts. An Australian cyclone with maximum gusts between 170kph-224kph is labeled as Category3. ie Even if an Australian cyclone has sustained winds under 119kph/74mph, it would be labeled as Cat.3 by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology if it has gusts over 170kph/105mph.

Since it's possible for cyclones to have sustained winds under 74mph while having gusts over 105mph,
and since this site is written primarily for an audience familiar with American labels,
an Australian Cat.3 Cyclone would be labeled as if it were an American TropicalStorm until that Australian Cat.3 Cyclone's sustained winds exceed 119kph.
Ahh,you floridians should be up here on New Year's day for the annual dip into Boston Harbor,so refreshing.
hey bone thanks again for those links. the SPC hourly Mesoscale is great. The Lake effect tools are also great. I'm glued.
yea nature has a way of taking care of itself. The tigers probably got to high ground and bedded down under a bush.
Hey NE...ready to end that winning streak?
Glad you like it Lake.
378. LakeShadow 3:01 PM GMT on November 16, 2007
Hey NE...ready to end that winning streak?

***POP*** the sound of Bufflo bubble bursting
Thats the thing, bone, I'm not sure if there was any higher ground to go to.
nature takes care of it self Lake.

some might not make it but most will
I'm sorry NE who has the bigger bubble???
If Brady's head got any bigger, we'd be calling him Mr. Mackey, mmmmkay?
I dont follow football much but will say this..

it seems like New England's year for all sports.

I hope Miami's record is never broken but I do know it will happen.
Lake,he's been saying nothing but great things about Buffalo,I wish he would do some trash talking for once
I dunno even the Sabres managed to win against the Bruins, so maybe not ALL NE teams are doing well...

He;s been saying great things about B-lo because we're AWESOME!!!

:0P
385. Bonedog 3:09 PM GMT on November 16, 2007
I dont follow football much but will say this..

it seems like New England's year for all sports.

I hope Miami's record is never broken but I do know it will happen.

I honestly don't see them going undefeated,but in realty its not important.And it really does seem to be Boston's year,our Pro soccer team is playing the championship game this weekend,for all I know a Bostonian is winning the checkers championship.
lol,************zipping his mouth shut*********
LOL NE you just jinxed Boston LOL
So whats happening with this clipper? Bone...are the models still taking it southeast?
Hey,Lake,since its a Sunday night game,I assume the tailgating will start early,fans should be in good shape by game time.
Bills are notorious for losing primetime games. Its our speciality.
Any way getting back to weather,looks like we're slipping into a quiet period for the upcoming week,the clipper this weekend is staying far south and weak.
Lake yes the clipper is going to tack the southern route past us. Most models have it weakening as it does. Looks like the precip will be because of the dynamical forcing thats already present in the atmosphere. Basically snow showers for the inland areas and possible Lake Effect bands if the winds are right.
B-lo fans are experts at primetime tailgating....right from work to the parking lot. Pick up an order of wings along the way...
Absolute worst rush hour traffic in the world...even for you, NE!
Link

"At the height of the fish drying and processing season, tens of thousands of fishermen and their workers were reportedly working on remote islands off the coast. Their fate remained unknown, but a number of fishermen were confirmed dead."

It sounds like there wasn't really any effort to get the fishermen to safety. Also, there are reports from several islands that only foreigners and nationals with airline tickets were allowed to leave.
397. jpritch 3:27 PM GMT on November 16, 2007
Link

"At the height of the fish drying and processing season, tens of thousands of fishermen and their workers were reportedly working on remote islands off the coast. Their fate remained unknown, but a number of fishermen were confirmed dead."

It sounds like there wasn't really any effort to get the fishermen to safety. Also, there are reports from several islands that only foreigners and nationals with airline tickets were allowed to leave.

I heard a report this morning some of the islands were completely inundated,I think the early damage reports and death toll are just the tip of the iceberg.
hey jpritch thanks for the article! I realize the numbers are just getting in. However,I expected to wake up this morning and find much higher numbers, and thats less discouraging.
Be careful surfing a lot in cold water-One day I went it was 18 degrees outside and sunny with water temp at 38 degrees. I had to slide on the ice to get to the shorebreak, which was 3 foot frozen ice mush, with a north wind of 15 knots-water got in my ear & froze...so, over time and surfing in cold conditions, I grew bones in the center of my ears which causes ringing, and at times, blockage. Doctors won't operate because the area is so delicate, if they make a mistake, I will have lost my equilibrium forever.
New blog
Although there is some debate, the name "Sidr"(cedar) can apparently refer to any number of plants of an evergreen or aromatic type. In the Qur'an, however, the Cedar of Lebanon is the usual reference for a "Sidr," not the Jujube. [Link 1] [Link 2]