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Cyclone Nargis death toll may top 100,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on May 08, 2008

The tragedy of Cyclone Nargis' aftermath in Myanmar continues to intensify, with the top U.S. diplomat in the county now predicting a death toll of 100,000. A death toll of 80,000 has been estimated by a local official in just one district of the country--Labutta--so the death toll may go much higher than 100,000. Although the first major U.N. relief flight of emergency supplies has finally landed, the criminal indifference of the nation's leaders towards the plight of the cyclone's survivors will doom hundreds or thousands more to death or terrible suffering. One can only hope that the people of Myanmar will rise up and put an end to Myanmar's dictatorship as a result of this awful tragedy.

There is historical precedent for this sort of occurrence. The deadliest tropical cyclone of all time, the Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970, killed upwards of 550,000 people is what was then called East Pakistan (and now called Bangladesh). A statement released by eleven political leaders in East Pakistan ten days after the cyclone hit charged the government with "gross neglect, callous indifference and utter indifference". They also accused the president of playing down the news coverage. The dissatisfaction with the government response to the disaster boiled over into full-fledged civil war the next year, which ultimately led to the overthrow of the government and the establishment of the new nation of Bangladesh. As bad as the West Pakistani response to the Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970 was, the response of the Myanmar government to Nargis is far worse. The slowness of response to this tropical cyclone disaster is unprecedented in modern times.

Nargis is one of the 20 deadliest cyclones in history
Cyclone Nargis' official death toll of 22,500 ranks the storm as the 19th deadliest in world history. Fourteen of the world's twenty deadliest cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms. Until Nargis, these storms have all affected Bangladesh and India. The bay's shallow bathymetry and low-lying, heavily populated river deltas make the Bay of Bengal the world's most notorious tropical cyclone graveyard. If Nargis's death toll does exceed 100,000, the storm will still only rank as the tenth deadliest tropical cyclone of all time.


Figure 1. This pair of images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite use a combination of visible and infrared light to make flood waters obvious. Water is blue or nearly black, vegetation is bright green, bare ground is tan, and clouds are white or light blue. On April 15 (top), rivers and lakes are sharply defined against a backdrop of vegetation and fallow agricultural land. The Irrawaddy River flows south through the left-hand side of the image, splitting into numerous distributaries known as the Mouths of the Irrawaddy. The wetlands near the shore are a deep blue green. Cyclone Nargis came ashore across the Mouths of the Irrawaddy and followed the coastline northeast. The entire coastal plain is flooded in the May 5 image (bottom). The fallow agricultural areas appear to have been especially hard hit. For example, Rangoon (Yangon), the capital city with population over 5 million, is almost completely surrounded by floods. Several large cities (population 100,000-500,000) are in the affected area. Muddy runoff colors the Gulf of Martaban turquoise. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Nargis' storm surge
Nargis took the worst possible path, tracking right along the low-lying, heavily populated Irrawaddy River delta. Moreover, the storm hit at high tide, greatly increasing the impact of the storm surge. Tidal range in the Irrawaddy River delta is about five feet between low tide and high tide, and the death toll would have been much, much lower had the storm hit at low tide. Further amplifying the storm surge's height was the fact that Nargis was moving rather slowly--about 11 mph. Slow moving tropical cyclones can drive a much higher storm surge into narrow estuaries that connect to the ocean, since there is more time for the surge to penetrate inland. Nargis' track, forward speed, and high tide timing created a "perfect storm" able to cause an unprecedented storm surge in the Irrawaddy River delta. The only saving grace was the relatively small size of the cyclone.

I talked to Stephen Baig, the National Hurricane Center's storm surge expert, about Nargis. He confirmed that the surge from Nargis was likely about 12 feet, and that had Myanmar asked, NHC would have happily made them custom storm surge forecasts for the storm. He offered that NHC would do the same for any country in need of storm surge forecasts for an approaching storm.

Human factors helped make the storm surge worse. About 80% of the mangrove forest along Myanmar's coast has been destroyed, to make room for rice paddies and shrimp farms. Mangroves--tall, gnarly, salt-tolerant trees--act to blunt and slow down the progress of the storm surge and reduce the wave action of the ocean. Had more mangroves been left to survive, the impact of the storm surge would have been lessened. How much so, no one can say, for there are few observations of the storm surge to verify models of this. Keep in mind that the mangroves are far more effective in protecting against a sudden, powerful wave like the 2004 tsunami, than the slower, hours-long inundation of a storm surge.

Comments from Chris Burt
I've been in regular communication about this disaster with Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather. He has been visiting Myanmar every year for 30 years, and has much insight on the situation there:

Yet another official Chinese news agency has gone on record about the disaster, going so far as to quote the U.S Chief of Mission (the top ranking US diplomat in Myanmar since we have had no ambassador in the country for 30 years now):

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-05/08/content_8127548.htm

Again, I can tell you that this is VERY significant. China is Myanmar's only real friend in the world and when THEY begin to publish critical reports, I really am now starting to think this dreadful regime in Myanmar has met its match.

Here is a letter I received from a friend in the capital city, Yangon today:

Dear Chris,

Help received within the country is insufficient and inefficient. We need so much of outside professional, efficient help. NOT in three days. SHOULD be in three hours. Should have been in the last three days. Why are they waiting for three more days? We cannot risk any more life. The dead toll is shockingly too high and it is increasing minute by minute. Please keep me posted with international support. I will also keep you posted.


Great Plains storm chasing
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts. Be sure to catch his spectacular photos of the amazing storms that form over our Great Plains.

Jeff Masters
Tornado Damage 2
Tornado Damage 2
Damage from today's Tornado in Windsor, Colorado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

499. enter Piarco in the box at top left this page, for the "official " forecast.

Hmmm....thunderstorms likely on Wednesday?
I don't know JFV, anything I throw out there would be strictly a guess. That said, I would expect maybe two to four named systems before say August 10th. Forecasting stuff like that is just so tough even for the pros, much less a hobbyist like myself.
This tropical wave MIGHT bring some rainfall to the extreme southern windwards on Monday/Tuesday...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37/38W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. LATESTS
VIS SAT IMAGERY FOR THE DAY REVEALED WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N WHERE THERE ARE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WAVE WITH A PRONOUNCED BULGE OF MOISTURE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUE.

does anyone know an easy site or something that you can go to, to make donations to the folks in Myanmar?

One of the places to donate and make your money help those most affected is Doctors Without Borders. Here is a link to their website. You can click on the tab that says Donate.

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org

I've copied part of an update from their website:

"Geneva/Yangon, May 9, 2008—As the first Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières(MSF) relief plane receives permission to land in Yangon tomorrow, Saturday, the international medical humanitarian organization has already intensified its emergency program. As MSF scales up, there is a need for more technical experts and further supplies in the coming days. MSF has staff in various countries awaiting visas, and several other planes of cargo ready to leave in the coming days, though these still need permission from authorities to land.

The first cargo plane, containing 40 metric tons of water and sanitation equipment, relief stocks, medicines, and therapeutic food, will leave Europe this afternoon. Landing clearance has been given, and our teams will be there to receive the material and immediately distribute it to some of the most affected.

MSF teams, already based in Myanmar, responded immediately after the cyclone hit, providing food, basic relief items, medical care, and improved access to clean water. MSF teams are using two boats to reach the most affected areas in the south-west tip of the Irrawady Delta, mainly in Haigyi, Tongwa, and Pyinsalu, where 95% of homes are destroyed. So far, nine truckloads of supplies have gone to Bassein, including 14,000 pieces of plastic sheeting, 62 tons of rice, as well as oil, fish and therapeutic food. The teams have done several hundred consultations since Wednesday, about half of which were for cyclone-related injuries, while the remainder were for diarrhea, fever and respiratory infections.

As MSF scales up and begins to see the extent and severity of the damage, the number of casualties, and people vulnerable to exposure, hunger and disease, it is clear that a much greater response is urgently needed."

503. stormdude77 8:46 PM BOT on May 09, 2008
This tropical wave MIGHT bring some rainfall to the extreme southern windwards on Monday/Tuesday...


Thanks, stormdude77....I guess thats why the forecast is predicting rain by Wednesday here in T&T.
Hey, shamanTT...we're neighbours then...I'm in Barbados...
stormdude77, when was the last hurricane that passed over Barbados?
Shaman, I have found that the Piarco met. forecast has been optimistic lately, with their rain predictions. I would say rain on Wed. is a possible, but not likely. Would be nice though.......
Where are you ?
We haven't had a direct hit from a hurricane for a long time now (since 1955; that was Janet). We've had some close misses over the past couple of years (Ivan and Earl in 2004, Emily in 2005 and Dean last year)...
Subject: "Category Four Typhoon" over east Philippine Sea

At 9:00 AM JST, Typhoon Rammasun (0802) [940 hPa] located near 14.5N 132.0E had 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts up to 120 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north at 10 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
====================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
======================
230 NM southwest from the center.
160 NM northeast from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 18.7N 131.3E - 90 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 23.3N 134.5E - 75 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 30.3N 141.4E - 60 knots [CAT 2]
Janet hide in de mountains,
Janet blowdown a million buildings
Janets sister was Katie,
Katie blow 'way the whole of Haiti.

Kitchener, 1955.
Pottery, I'm near to San'Do.... there's been very little precipitation here...my lawn has started drying again after recovering with the showers last month.
Same conditions as here, just east of Freeport, Shaman.
Lots of smoke, dust, and wind drying things up. Water will be a problem, if this goes on for long.
Well that "category four typhoon" is about to become a 5.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 910.5mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.9 6.9
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
=====================

An area of cloud cluster has been seen on latest satellite imageries over the Southen part of the South China Sea or about 255 km. WNW of Puerto Princesa, Palawan (10.5N 116.5E). This suspect area may likely become a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) within the next 24-48 hours. It has been forecast on almost all of the Numerical Global Models that this new system is likely to become a Tropical Cyclone next week. Long-range forecast shows it strengthening into a Tropical Storm in the next 3 to 4 days and affecting Western Luzon by next weekend (May 16-18). Stay tuned for more updates soon.

Can someone post a track forecast for the current cyclone ? Rammasun.

(edited)
Time to start my rain dance...have a good night pottery, stormdude77 and others.
Severe thunderstorm watch for N.C. Many warnings in N.C.

Tornado warnings in W.V.
heheheh, hope it works, Shaman. See you here if things get exciting.


Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 18.7N 131.3E - 90 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 23.3N 134.5E - 75 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 30.3N 141.4E - 60 knots [CAT 2]

Thanks, Skye and Hades.
Anyone have a MJO map handy for the WPAC? The way things are exploding out there, I'm thinking it must be quite favorable?
Good night, shamanTT! TTYS
6.7 quake jolts Guam; no damage or injuries reported 22 minutes ago



HAGATNA, Guam - An undersea earthquake off Guam with a preliminary magnitude of 6.7 shook the U.S. territory Saturday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

PUBLICIDAD

There were no reports of damage or injuries. A magnitude-6 earthquake can cause severe damage.

The quake failed to generate any destructive, widespread tsunami, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Honolulu.

The quake struck at 7:51 a.m. at a depth of 54.4 miles, the survey said in a statement. It was centered 125 miles west-southwest of Hagatna, Guam, and 250 miles southwest of Saipan in the neighboring Northern Mariana Islands, it said.

Kim Alba, lifestyle editor at the Pacific Daily News, said that the quake jolted her house and woke her up, but that the shaking was apparently the extent of its impact on the island.

Air Force Tech Sgt. Brian Bahret, spokesman for Guam's Andersen Air Force Base, said there were no reports of damage there. And Sarrah Iguel, a dispatch operator for Civil Defense in the Marianas, said no one called to report damage.

Guam is west of the international date line, about 3,700 miles southwest of Hawaii
524. tornadofan 9:39 PM EDT

As StormW pointed out earlier this week, and it explains here
the MJO is in a weak phase - probably not affecting it much.
HurrikanEB....an organization called World Vision has been on the ground there for thirty years....they are highly reputable and do great work...don't know their site but you can google them...
526. Tazmanian 8:49 PM CDT on May 09, 2008

could it trigger a tsunami?
Thanks HIEXPRESS for the link. I like your chain of hotels. :)
From the navy site:

03WRAMMASUN.120kts-933mb-145N-1321E.100pc.jpg |
ajcamsmom2 nop
Looking rather perfect!!

Looking at some video of the wind damage in Burma. I know many of the buildings are not "stormproof" consrtuction, but the damage to apparently solid - looking buildings, and to trees (especially palms), is pretty incredible.
Were there any reliable wind speed measurements taken in Nargis that we know about ?
532. Tazmanian 8:56 PM CDT on May 09, 2008
ajcamsmom2 nop

Good...
Just a thought here.
If we know that a storm will quickly intensity when it passes over warmer water, and we know that the area that Nargis traversed was generally flooded rice fields, 18 inches deep, and we know that those standing waters in the rice fields will be much hotter than any ocean, then......?
from what i have seen in the imagest pottery 120 130 mph imo
One of Master's posts said the storm wiped out a harvest. Would the fields be dry then?
No, the rice had not been harvested. It was in the fields, and rice grows in shallow water.
could the Chaiten Volcano be come a super Volcano ???

A very large cauldera

would that mean we may now have a super Volcano ???? dont you olny find this in super Volcano ???
I would say at LEAST 120 mph, Keeper, to create that kind of destruction.
no draining now but a high salt content maybe by early fall here the fresh water will by then flush out all the salt maybe till then they got to learn how to grow pre salted rice
Not sure, Taz. How big is the crater now ?
Daniel Swain Says:

May 9th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
The Chaiten Volcano continues to erupt strongly. The eruption has been continuous for 7 days now, never having abated lower than moderate levels and regularly experiencing violent explosions. Actually, the average level of activity continues to increase (peaks higher, lulls less frequent and less significant). Some interesting (and perhaps significant) observations:

1. Pyroclastic flows have been experienced on the flanks of the volcano. Burned vegetation has been confirmed within a 2 mile radius of the volcano.
2. Lava flows have begun within the crater near the summit. Lava has not yet escaped the cauldera.
3. A very large cauldera is beginning to form at the summit. Multiple vents have opened up into one large one, with continuous emission of incandescant material (semimolten rock) and very large volumes of pulverized igneous rock (2.5 cubic KILOMETERS of ash–more than twice the total emission of Mt. Saint Helens already).
4. Water temperatures in rivers within a 100 mile ragius of the volcano have spiked dramatically–by as much as 17 degrees C!
Taz, I think super volcanoes are much larger then these types of eruptions. I don't think a volcano this size has the capability of even becoming something remotely like a Yellowstone eruption, if that is what you are getting at.
ok thanks StormJunkie
120kts folks!

Texas Gulf:
I second that Choice: Medecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders is well organized and tries hard to deliver the aid donations in timely fashion (I worked for them in a couple of countries).Any one of the NGOs mentioned here will also do their best to relay the donations to where the great need is today. That said, this is an extremely difficult case. No NGO can enter an area without some form of agreement with the local government. If they do enter anyway they will not be able to function and very likely to be at risk themselves. The first rule in any rescue situation is (Rightly so): assess the danger of the situation to the rescuer. You can not help anyone if you immediately become another casualty.
548. GulfScotsman 10:43 PM EDT on May 09, 2008
H23... I hear you have updated your website............................................................................................. ................



cool ;)

Thanks appreciate.
That is a happy looking hurricane for sure...holy cow. Dry as a bone here in east Central Florida. This is how it was in 04 if I remember correctly. Dry and hot. They're dredging the Inlet and putting sand on our beach right now. Just in time! So Kudos to the county for that...
Dr. Masters made a good point in the blog that survivors only have hours to live unless aid arrives. The magnitude of the problem is staggering! (My sis was in Dhaka when it hit.) The only good that may come of this is world attention is focused on people who were already suffering and maybe long term something positive can come of it. What China does will be interesting.
Regime Trades Aid for Votes...
This is a link to an article about the politiking while people starve to death.
Link
This all sounds really disturbing and quite sad.


"Villagers were totally unaware," said 38-year-old Khin Khin Myawe, interviewed in the hard-hit delta town of Labutta. "We knew the cyclone was coming but only because the wind was very strong. No local authorities ever came to us with information about how serious the storm was."

The India Meteorological Department, one of six regional warning centers set up by the World Meteorological Organization, began sending regular storm advisories April 27. The information appeared in Myanmar's state-run newspapers, radio and television 48 hours ahead of the storm. But the international advisories said nothing about a storm surge. And Myanmar, unlike its neighbors Bangladesh and India, has no radar network to help predict the location and height of surges, the WMO said.

There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall. "How is it possible that there was such a great death toll in the 21st century when we have imagery from satellites in real time and there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?" said Olavo Rasquinho of the U.N. Typhoon Committee Secretariat.

"Taking some action to move people from affected areas would have dramatically helped reduce the numbers of causalities. Absolutely," Rahman said. But junta officials and some weather experts said evacuating a large area with millions of residents would have been nearly impossible, given the poor roads, the distance to some villages and the likely refusal of some families to leave.

"Even if they warned them, they can't go anywhere. Or they are afraid to go anywhere because they are afraid of losing their property," said Lander, the University of Guam professor. "It is debatable how much of a mass exodus you could have had."


(from an AP article in Sandcrab's blog)
I would be interested to read a compare/ contrast done of Katrina and Nargis on the effects, storm surge, geographic impact, population density, etc. This would aid understanding this event in terms of real human suffering since we are all in varying degrees familiar with some of what went on in N.O.
524. tornadofan 8:39 PM CDT on May 09, 2008
Anyone have a MJO map handy for the WPAC? The way things are exploding out there, I'm thinking it must be quite favorable?




The MJO has been quite weak in the past weeks, but in the last few days seems to be somewhat stronger in the wPac.

Photobucket

Rammasun was able to strengthen as it passed thru this area of high OHC.

Photobucket

...looking fishy, hopefully it stays that way!
there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?"

sounds like more than two..

Thailand
India

who else covers that part of the East Indian Ocean.
But junta officials and some weather experts(???) said evacuating a large area with millions of residents would have been nearly impossible, given the poor roads, the distance to some villages and the likely refusal of some families to leave.


..."and some weather experts" - whoa! Surely, with their knowledge they knew of the pending disaster. Why not give the people a choice? A fair chance? "Run for your lives!" - many may have still died, but some would have had a chance! hhhhhhmmmmm
(patrap here)

From Dr. Masters May 6th Entry Chicklit


"Nargis hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as powerful Category 3 cyclone with winds of 130 mph. The cyclone took the worst possible track, passing directly over the densely populated and low lying Irrawaddy River delta. A deadly storm surge--probably around 12 feet high--inundated the delta region, accounting for most of the deaths. The storm's fierce winds killed many more. The only fortunate thing about Nargis was its small size. Hurricane-force winds covered an area about 90 miles in diameter (Figure 1). In contrast, the wind field of Katrina at landfall spanned an area about 205 miles in diameter. Winds from both storms at landfall were about the same (strong Category 3), but Katrina's winds covered an area four times larger than Nargis"


Jeff Masters Interview on TV about the Nargis impact.

Evening all

nutria = patrap?

MLC...sounds like culpability to me...

makes me SO angry!
are nutria still fair game in LA??

(and i DON'T mean Lower Alabama!)
21 days
why don't communist governments value life? oh wait...we should be doing instead of preaching...
Texas Gulf:
I second that Choice: Medecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders is well organized and tries hard to deliver the aid donations in timely fashion.


Doctors Without Borders help is sometimes accepted when other aid organizations are refused. They are often the first on the scene in a crisis and provide much needed medical help. A very high percentage of your donation goes directly to the people needing help.
Earthquakes, volcanoes, tropical cyclones.

Mother Nature is putting on quite a show this last week.
568. But, if we drive less, we could avert a global disaster...
Welcome aboard FP


Good to see ya pearland
But, if we drive less, we could avert a global disaster...


Well cutting down on the several million soccer moms that feel the need to drive a suburban could not hurt anything...

That said, if we would get ourselves in gear and get away from our need for oil, we may be able to avoid a US disaster, but alas there is just too much MORE money in it for the already insanely rich, so why would they really push to start having bio-diesel at every gas station, or finding other fuels sources. The US disaster I am speaking of is being in the pocket of those that would much prefer us dead.


more rain for Myanmar..
571. fair enough. however, there's no where NEAR enough used cooking oil to power 10 million Ford Excursions on bio-diesel :)
by the way, you shouldn't despise the "insanely rich"...you should aspire to be like them. people living elsewhere will never get the opportunity, however remote, to become insanely rich. why do you think so many people want to come here while so few are willing to leave?

lmao pearland :~)

I don't know though we throw a lot of Mickey D's and KFC down the gullet in this country!

No, I am not smart enough to figure out the solution, but dammit I know that we have the folks in this country that are.
StormJunkie...you make me laugh, too!

You know, the bedrock of America has always been ingenuity in the face of calamity, and I, too, believe that we will prevail in the end.

how about CO2 --> fuel?

I'd bet that could be done in our lifetimes...
Shoot, I sure am glad I'm not having to put gas in an Excursion!!!

I think I read somewhere recently that some legislation had been introduced to curb the appetite for bio-fuels. Of course, getting introduced is one thing, and getting past the lobby is quite another!
MLC...you know, bio-fuels are great, if and ONLY IF they are not made out of food!

like I've said before...nothing else matters if you don't have something to put in your belly...
I don't despise the insanely rich per se. I despise the fact that it is so easy for us to watch the insanely poor become poorer. And don't tell me that it is all due to choices people make because it ain't. I despise the fact that oil companies will not produce more oil because they stand to make more money by producing what they want to produce and keeping demand high. I despise the fact that we can not find and develop these other sources of energy because it means the insanely rich would not be quite as insanely rich.
mlc, the real problem is the logistics of getting the pumps, and other infrastructure in place for whatever the next fuel is. Which means the insanely rich would have to reduce profits in order to get that done. Hell, why do that when they can just keep on keeping on and profits just keep going up.
579. before you go off on the oil companies, you should attend a conference like OTC that we have here in Houston. you would get a new appreciation of exactly "what it takes" to produce a barrel of oil or a gallon of gasoline. furthermore, you should ask why the federal government gets 16% of the value of a barrel of oil produced even before it is refined, then tacks on another 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline before it even gets into your tank, all the while never having lifted a SINGLE finger to produce that product. just a thought....

then you should ask why Harry Reid is against drilling in ANWR...but he cares for Americans, right?
by the way, StormJunkie, i'm not bustin' your chops at all. i just get tired of people criticizing those that are successful in a capitalist market. if Obama gets his way, NONE of us would be successful...BUT, we would all be equal...
Rammasun could have probably intensified even further had it been on a more westerly course. Doesn't look like it will be a significant amount of trouble for the mainland regions.
Have I mis-read something, or did I see where Brazil has found some new oil depot off of our waters? How's that? I may be dreaming or sleeptyping, so pardon me, plz.
no, MLC, you're not dreaming...Brazil has found a new, deep sea oil field that they didn't know existed. of course, the field still needs to be "proven", but it's a very hopeful situation.Link
Very good points pearland.

But it is all part of the smoke screen. The bottom line is I don't want oil anymore. It is gonna run out one day one way or another. Let's make the move to get away from it.

Same thing as my opinions on the space program. This pale blue dot is not going to hold us forever. So in the name of humanity, I can not see where anything is much more important then getting out there and getting established.

That is just my two cents, and again, I know I don't have all the answers an half my answers are all _ up anyway. The point is that if we can ever all work together we could accomplish some amazing stuff.

NONE of us would be successful...BUT, we would all be equal...


I know that is not exactly the answer either, but I do think there is some middle of the road where we are all better off then we are now.
off of our waters?
you know, the roots of what made this country great is a belief in the individual, that we can all SUCCEED. we are the largest contributor to the UN food aid program, year after year, yet we are constantly told how horrible of a country we are. we are told how greedy we are, yet i dare anyone to produce proof that another nation sent more aid to the 2004 tsunami victims than we did. we are told that we are fat and lazy, yet the main engine behind the US economy is hard work, small business, and entrepreneurialism.
The Tupi field lies under 2,140 meters (7,060 feet) of water, more than 3,000 meters (almost 10,000 feet) of sand and rocks, and then another 2,000-meter (6,600-foot) thick layer of salt.

Getting the oil out will be a formidable challenge. It will take years because the petroleum is so deep under the earth's surface, meaning any impact on oil prices probably won't come soon.



...sounds fairly deep! Dang!
589. pearlandaggie - well said!
SJ, I guess I mis-read the "off our waters" part, sorry!
well, fellers, it's way, WAY past my bedtime!

godspeed to all and have a great night!
Have a good sleep, Pearland!
Don't mistake me for talking about our country pearl, I am speaking more in terms of humanity. I do appreciate what capitalism has to offer, but I also know that it has it's down falls.

that we can all SUCCEED

True for the most part, but not quite as perfect as it sounds. Case and point, take the rural country man, or the boy raised in Harlem, or the boy born in to poverty in Africa, Asia, or the middle east. Why are they any less deserving then Paris Hilton? Do they truly have the SAME chance to succeed as GW Jr did?

And just to make things clear, I truly enjoy healthy debate; I learn something new every time. Sometimes I play devil's advocate just to try and get a look at both sides of the road.

The road to change will be paved by open mindedness.
583. Drakoen 12:14 AM CDT on May 10, 2008
Rammasun could have probably intensified even further had it been on a more westerly course. Doesn't look like it will be a significant amount of trouble for the mainland regions.


- I saw that, Drakoen - a bit further west was a high OHC close call!
Thanks for clarifying mlc.

Night pearland, I am not far behind myself. Great discussion. Thanks!
SJ, Drak, all - I'm out, too! Ya'll have a good sleep!
Me too mlc, good night.

Night Drak



JTWC: 125 knots 929 MB - Category 4
JMA: 90 knots 930 hPa - Category 4 (JMA scale)
Yep, typhoon surf for sure!

Goodnight. 3^)
Rammasun looks like its heading for super typhoon status but it should only just reach it
A possible major severe weather outbreak is in store for the south, including the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. These states are within the current moderate risk area; however, the moderate risk area will be expanded to include Tennessee, West Kentucky, South Missouri, and Extreme Southern Illinois.

For tomorrow, the SPC has issued a moderate risk that includes the states of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as Extreme Southern North Carolina.

I believe that an upgrade to a categorical high risk is possible for today.

There a 15% hatched area of tornado probability, including Northern Louisiana, Arkansas, and central Mississippi. There is a 45% hatched area of hail, and a 45% hatched area of high wind across much of the same area. If either the probability of high wind or hail is upgraded to 60%, a high risk will be issued. Since the SPC is mentioning a possible derecho event, it is not out of the question that a 60% wind risk be issued, which is why I'm mentioning it. I'm not "high-casting" if you get that impression :)

EHI values may exceed 6.0 according to the RUC and the GFS. An EHI value higher than 5 would support F4 - F5 tornadoes. The NAM is favoring 4.0, which seems more reasonable to me. This would favor F2 - F3 tornadoes.

The GFS is predicting INSANE CAPE...values above 3000. These is well beyond extreme; and were this to play out, a high risk would likely be issued. The NAM and RUC are drifting around 2500, which is still extremely huge.

Storm Relative Helicity forecasts are not in agreement with each other. The NAM is favoring a value of 250 in Louisiana, which would support supercells but not MESO's. The RUC, on the other hand, shows values near 400 in Arkansas, which would support large rotations. The GFS is also showing values exceeding 300, but in Missouri...so this is a possible limiting factor in terms of Tornadic activity.

The RUC is showing death-by-lifted-index, with LI values near -10 in some places. This shows extreme instability. The NAM shows LI around -8, which seems more reasonable to me.

The SWEAT index will peak out at around 450 smack in the middle of the moderate risk area according to the NAM. This is beyond the 400 minimum value needed for powerful twisters and huge straightline/derecho events.

One of the possible limiting factors is the possibility of a deviation of mean wind flow at the 850 millibar level. None of the models are showing this right now, but these winds have become notorious this year for veering off at the last second and preventing tornado formation, contrary to the models. The 850 Vort/general level will have to be monitored for this deviation.

All of the models show a moderate strength cap in place across the region; and the time at which it breaks deviates across the runs. GFS predicts the cap will break sometime between 18z (1 PM central time) and 0z (7 PM central time). WRF shows the cap breaking at around the same time frame. While most of the models do predict the capping inversion to break at some point; looking at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM, that model barely shows anything and so that leads me to believe that it is leaning towards a cap bust. This is another factor that will need to be monitored during today's event.

SUMMARY: The ingredients are there for a very severe tornado outbreak. Some of the models (particularly RUC) show dew points near or even above 70. Everyone living in the slight and moderate risk areas should closely monitor their source for weather information. A lot of storm chasers will be active in this area but I'm hearing the terrain isn't exactly optimal for chasing.

Overhead:
what a sad story, Hiexpress. I am in disbelief.
Morning Everyone!

Looks like nasty weather is on it's way...thanks for the update Storm!
I wonder if pearlandaggie will be repeating even MORE of Rush Limburger's talking points on this WEATHER blog today.
The Atlantic is heating up above normal in many of our tropical danger zones......
595. StormJunkie 5:37 AM GMT on May 10, 2008
... Case and point, take the rural country man, or the boy raised in Harlem, or the boy born in to poverty in Africa, Asia, or the middle east. Why are they any less deserving then Paris Hilton? Do they truly have the SAME chance to succeed as GW Jr did?


**********

Storm,

There is a problem with your observation.

By whose standard are you comparing those differing cultures? Once you move your comparison out of our country, American standards for success may not necessarily be appropriate.

There has long been an argument that we, in our arrogance, have destroyed countless cultures in places like Africa because we thought our way of doing things was best. Time often shows that we have been wrong more often than not.

How many countries around the world practice our form of free enterprise or democracy? The truth is that very few do. To clarify, I mean that they have significant modifications here and significant modifications there in the way they do business and the way they govern themselves.

If you go to Russia, you will quickly realize that although they may have a democracy...it does not function like ours. Same thing goes for their business models. The most often observation has been that we should not be surprised because theirs is a culture of centuries of Tzarist government and to expect them to be able to change their whole way of life is asking an awful lot of them.

Then you must look at the concept of success. What you and I may call success and what people in other countries call success are probably worlds apart. How do you know that a significant portion of those unfortunate folks in Burma were unhappy with their lot? It is quite likely that many of them had a rich family tradition of faming those areas and that they were proud peacocks about it.

Is it right for us to bring our highrises and skyscrapers to their land for us to be convinced that they have all the opportunites they deserve. I am having trouble accepting the concept that ours is a superior...force everyone to follow our mold...way of living. The fact that we can and do reach out and help others is a function of our way of life, period. To do otherwise would be a deviation from our beliefs and would be wrong of us...but only as the deviation relates to us not to the others folks involved.

How about this? If the hermit living in the back country is content and feels that, by his standards, he is successful. Who are we to suggest otherwise?

In the final analysis, it is about perceptions. If you live in a mobile home, and I live in a mansion, and we both feel successful...who is to say that either of us is wrong.
the logical conclusion of your contention is that slaves would be happy as they are ignorant of alternatives and their families had been enslaved for generations...so..it's all cool with them...
presslord,

In a perverse sense...yes.

In the world of perceptions...what you call slavery is based upon your cultural values. In a different culture where what you call slavery is simply a way of life...One might say 'Who died and made you the Grand Poobah?'

If they, as a culture, don't see it as slavery...is it slavery? Not to them. If one of their people should venture out into the rest of the world and decide that how it is done in the rest of the world is better...then he/she can decide to go back and try to change things. It is their call.

One last observation, from the world of logic and philosophy. Logical does not bestow a mantel of accuracy upon a subject. A logical conclusion can be logical and wrong at the same time.

BTW That applies to my logic as well.

Now...back to the weather.
Rammasun has gone to Category5
Morning all :~)

lindenii, while your statements hold some merit, I think they can also be an excuse to not worry about the rest of the world and only be concerned with how full your dinner plate is.

Ignorance is not always bliss, even if some folks may thing it is. Again, the boy in the mosques screaming down with the infidels, while he awaits his turn to be a martyr may think he is happy, but I believe this is only because he has been nurtured in to feeling this way. I am by no means claiming perfection from our country, and I am not suggesting that you have to completely change folks way of life or that you have to force a western life style on them. I am saying, that those folks working the fields of Burma deserved to eat better, have a government that cared a little about them, have better shelters, and most importantly, had better access to information.

That said, I agree, back to weather :~)

Looks like we could be in for a rough day tomorrow press.
Source: Xinhua News Agency

Date: 10 May 2008
Thai King provides aids to cyclone-hit Myanmarhttp://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/EVOD-7EHJ2A?OpenDocument&rc=3&emid=TC-2008-000057-MMR


BANGKOK, May 10, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) --The King of Thailand Bhumibol Adulyadej has prepared 2,000 aid sets comprising of food and bedding to help the victims of the cyclone-hit Myanmar, local media said on Saturday.

The aid sets, which cost about 1.08 million baht (about 34,840 U.S. dollars) to the victims, were donated by the Rajaprajanugroh Foundation, a royal foundation under the King, local newspaper Bangkok Post said on its webnews.
WOW

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.6mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.1 7.1

Link
SJ....It would suit me if we get a hurricane...if it'll settle down the pollen and help my allergies....
I second that WOW...

Its a super typhoon like I predicted
Imagine if it went through this rate of deepening right before making landfall somewhere. Good thing they forecast it to go out to sea.

Link
Good morning everyone,

Just checking in to make sure all is calm for us and see what you are all talking about.

Hope the Mothers here have a wonderful Mother's Day tomorrow and everyone has a great weekend!
A decent radius size, too. Could ERC in the near future...

And a nice upper-level warm core...

Principal Government Officials
Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council--Senior General Than Shwe
Prime Minister--Lt.Gen. Thein Sein
Minister of Foreign Affairs--U Nyan Win
Chargé d' Affaires, Burmese Embassy in the United States--U Myint Lwin
Ambassador to the United Nations--U Kyaw Tint Swe

Burma maintains an embassy to the United States at 2300 S Street NW, Washington, DC 20008, tel.: (202) 332-3344; fax: (202) 332-4351.

Drop um a Line or Fax.Let um Know how ya feel..
haha someone order up Presslord a Cat 5
Gulf...I'm afraid that may be my only hope....
StormJunkie,

Re: Post 616

Well stated.

And in the context of what you said, I agree wholeheartedly.
Man allergies are killing me this year!
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link

Folks a few days ago i mentioned the possibility of this cyclone growing into to a monster and BOOM its been getting organized by the hour the last 2 days.The large well developed cicrculation real told the story for me.Hopefully its 135kts winds stay of any land areas.

Here's an infrared view!



Thanks lindenii :~) As stated before debate is always good imho!

23, cookies are in the mail ☺

Really complex and dangerous situation setting up across the southeast?! Charleston Forecast Discussion
We all could see the cyclone coming 23...but the forecast is OUT to sea fortunately,this one wont bring calamity. The West-Pac up and running as per the time of year
can someone tell me a good hurricane tracker software where i can buy it..and just download it
sarepa, there are several out there. I think some use global tracks?

That said, most of that type of information can be gotten for free unless you are willing to spend hundreds/thousands of dollars on the truly top notch stuff.

There are some great tutorials on how to view the different forecast models here. IMHO, learning to view the models are one of the best tracking tools at our disposal. And they are free.

There are also a lot of imagery, wind, marine data, and other tracking links all on this one page The NRL sites and the CIMSS sites are really great!
I always forget the name of the really top notch tracking software. Any one remember it?
NWS/NHC...advisories?
oh yea the computer models..lol..srry is that i always come here on hurricane season..well thx storm
640. StormJunkie 4:02 PM GMT on May 10, 2008
I always forget the name of the really top notch tracking software. Any one remember it?


Digital Atmosphere?
No doubt pat, but I took those as a given.

Damn I wish I could remember the name of that software...I really would like to talk to someone that finally breaks tongue. I look at it every year and try to figure a way to budget it in, but it never works out.
Not the one I am thinking of Drak, but I will have to check that one out.
Aaron Neville reflects on a memorable Jazzfest
Posted by Keith Spera, Music Writer, The Times-Picayune May 10, 2008 5:05AM



Aaron Neville made the most of his return to the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival. He sat in with older brother Art at the Acura Stage, performed alongside brother Charles in the AIG Gospel Tent, then closed down the entire Jazzfest with the Neville Brothers.
Susan Poag / The Times-PicayuneAaron Neville sings in Jazzfest's AIG Gospel Tent on May 3, 2008.

The day after Jazzfest was even more emotional: On Monday, Neville oversaw the transfer of his wife Joel's remains from a mausoleum to the newly repaired Neville family crypt. She had died of cancer in January 2007; he returned to New Orleans for the first time since Hurricane Katrina to bury her.
Link



Louisiana 1927 Performed by Aaron Neville.

Jazz Fest Closing day,last Sunday.

ReliefWEB Link
Arghhh, this is killing me. What is the name of that software/service. I know it costs like 3k or something insane, but it is truly amazing software. Y'all help me out here!
Got it! Hurrtrak. Truly amazing stuff!

AKA PC Weather Products on 23's list.

thx storm! im seeing them
Hey SJ - not too far away from you (you're in SC, right?)...cleaning the boat outside and it's looking like it starting to build here...how much time do you think we have - should I just pack it in or what? I don't see ANYTHING on the radar with WU or weather.com

Just trying to see how much time I have before I get electrocuted in the driveway...

Thanks, Meliss
Hi Stormjunkie,
How are the lowlands of SC? I am heading by Hardeeville in a week.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA...SWRN SC...ECENTRAL/SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101628Z - 101900Z

ISOLATED/SCT SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AL EWD INTO
SERN SC DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HRS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW BEFORE THEN.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TOWERING CU FORMING
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ECENTRAL AL EWD INTO FAR SERN
SC. ALTHOUGH THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT REMOVAL OF BOUNDARY LAYER CINH. IF ELEVATED
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED WITHIN WAA REGIME...THEN IT WOULD
LIKELY BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN POSING A
SVR THREAT ONCE THE CINH IS REMOVED. SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS AND GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE...SVR THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE TIED TO THIS SCENARIO THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE AFTERNOON
HRS /BEFORE GREATER SVR THREAT EVOLVES FROM THE MS VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT/. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY TSTM THAT DOES BECOME SFC BASED WILL
LIKELY TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...0-1 KM SRH LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 THROUGH
21Z...INCREASING/BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
00Z WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2008
Good to see ya SG03, I am not too far from Hardeville. Shoot me a WU mail if you want to try to meet up while you are in the area.

mel, most of today should only be pops, so keep just keep an eye out. Looks like the worst will be after midnight and before early afternoon tomorrow, but just keep checking the radar and forecast discussions.

Off to mow the grass. Talk to y'all soon ☺
yea SJ...Think I can convince my wife I don't have to go to mass this evening due to inclement weather?!?!?!?!?
I don't know press, god may cut you some slack with the weather just long enough to go!
yea...well...if I go tonight I can hunker down indoors tomorrow
Hey vor...what's a ww?
weather watch..WW
Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 10 May 2008
ReliefWeb
UN says Myanmar junta impounds two more aid flights Link


BANGKOK, May 10, 2008 (AFP) - The UN food agency said Saturday that Myanmar's military regime has impounded two more plane-loads of cyclone aid, making a total of four that have been seized.
Good question mel!

I hear ya Paul, plus she can sleep in on mother's day if you make it out tonight!
Thanks pat, never heard that term before. Learning everyday :~)

Really off to cut the lawn before this WW possibly rolls in ☺
Duh...thanks Patrap...I thought that might be what it was but it seemed too easy.

Anywho...guess I'll just not finish the stupid boat and put it in the garage.

Check back later to see what is going on...

Stay safe...
our local Charleston media can use this set up tomorrow to practice for their annual hurricane season hysteria.....
hurricane season hysteria.....

That is an understatement press!
Thanks SJ!!! Just saw your response...talk to you later! Hope you have a lawn mower with the holder for your beer...love those things..

National Hurricane Preparedness Week Link


History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.


The MJO has been considerably weak in the past weeks, but in the last few days seems to be somewhat stronger in the wPac and slowly propagating eastwards.
No beer holder mel, yard nor wallet is quiet big enough for a rider. That said, my lawn mower won't start with out at least one beer!
670. StormJunkie 12:08 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
....my lawn mower won't start with out at least one beer!


LMAO, now that's funny! I hear ya, SJ, kind of like ether or a jump start! Makes plenty of sense! ;P
maybe it's just my perception...but there seems to have been a great deal more seismic and volcanic activity around the world lately...Do any of you know of a source to either confirm or deny this?????
23, I see XM on your list...something cool about guaranteed reception of WX data from near-Hawaii to Puerto Rico. Impossible for severe conditions to sneak up on your whether you are flying, driving, boating, whatever.

I shall stop here with the plug (I provide much of the model data, sea state conditions, wind analyses, etc.)
675. petet
Hello!Can someone tell me some WORLD WIDE typhoon/cyclones/hurricane tracking/images program?
Exactly mlc, you wouldn't think beer would be strong enough, but it seems to do the trick!

petet, There were several softwares listed a few posts back. post 647

That said, there is a lot of great free information here. Some world wide, some Atlantic only.
Press, stormydee has a host of earthquake, and I think some volcanic info here. It should be a start on what you are looking for.
dadgummit SJ...if you're not gonna cut your own grass....get your butt over here and cut mine....
I'm cutting, just on a water break now.

It is a little humid out...lmao

Also got to keep checking up on the formating of my worm infested lap top...Arghh
Wow...

                     UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2008 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 17:53:29 N Lon : 131:51:40 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.3mb/146.0kt

Wow. rammusun is really impressive. Cat 1 to Supertyphhon in 24 hours! That's incredible for this time of year, even for the WPac.
Good evening/afternoon everyone :)
wow, rammasun is amazing. I first thought it would be another ghost storm like the ones we had last week but the satellite image confirmed that it is a real storm. Fortunately it seems that this one won't hit any land except for the little islands north and north-east of it, the Daito and the Bonin islands, population about 3,000. But by then Rammasun will be already weakening so I hope that they get away with some rain and wind.

Thanks for posting the links to the tracking software, hurricane23. I'll see whether I can get anything of it working on Linux :-)

I'll grab some food now, see you later
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1
TC RAMMASUN Vmax 128Knots Link
WV Still of the Cyclone.

Position and Forecast Track.Link

892mb is very impressive with Super Typhoon status.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2008 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 17:53:29 N Lon : 131:51:40 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.3mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : -11.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG



Subject: Category 5 Typhoon east of Philippines

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (0802) [915 hPa] located near 17.4N 131.9E had 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts up to 150 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north at 12 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
======================
270 NM southwest from the center.
180 NM northeast from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 21.6N 133.1E - 95 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 26.3N 136.7E - 80 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 33.4N 143.7E - 55 knots [CAT 2]

--
Here is something we see rarely.. The JMA upgrading a system to Category 5 intensity.
Afternoon all.
Hot, dry, windy, dusty and smoky here at 11n 61w.
Some decent convection out in the Trop. Atl. at 30 w associated with a wave there. Forcasted to arrive here Tuesday. Some showers would be welcomed for sure.
The news from Burma keeps amazing me. Those jokers have seized more UN food planes. Its kind of a shame that those people around there are not more agressive ( Thailand, etc ). It would be nice to see someone else take the innitiative and ignore the Jokers, and fly the aid in in bulk, and distribute it as it needs doing.
Politics is real crap.........
Afternoon pottery, good to see ya and I concur.

Moderate risk area just extended to include the Charleston to Savannah area on spc map

We are now under a tornado watch until 9pm as well.
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TORNADO WATCH 294 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SCC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-037-049-053-065-075-
110100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0294.080510T1810Z-080511T0100Z/

SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AIKEN ALLENDALE BAMBERG
BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY
CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER
EDGEFIELD HAMPTON JASPER
MCCORMICK ORANGEBURG
Nice timing press!

What you got planned for today?
After 6 months as a Wat-San Logistician constructing "Feeding Centres" in a place you have never heard of: Margibi, Liberia I concluded we would be better off to mass our aid on the nearest border (in this case Thailand/Myanmar) and throw food and money over the border. The Junta would then have to pick up the food and money and secure it. We repeat if necessary and soon the aid goods will be consumed in the immediate area making for a much calmer local population. A well fed and well paid army is also much easier to deal with. Then the massive "aid" juggernaut is moved into the country a few miles and this is repeated. Pretty soon the country has a whole new industry: exporting food and medicine.
If this plan seems ridiculous to you I guess you had to be there. This tragedy is going to get worse than we can imagine before it gets better


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
-----------------------------------------------

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

WT 0294
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO
Beautiful!

Dry conditions for south florida are in the forcast through the extended period...If jims theory of may rainfall for south florida is correct lets hope it rains in the coming weeks.

Latest NWS Miami extended:

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK
OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

hey SJ...my mean wife is gonna make me go to mass...other than that, I'm layin' low...will be around tomorrow...got her a sewing machine for Mother's Day...so she's planning to play with that all day Sunday....if it's gonna be as nasty as I think it is, I'm gonna spend the day getting intimate with a bottle of some sort of distillled spirits....
0108, that sounds OK to me, re. fling the aid at them.
You reinforce my feelings about things becoming worse there. Seems obvious to me. In the meantime, we worry about upsetting the Junta ?
Incredible.
lol press, I hear ya. Got some afternoon lunch/early dinner plans tomorrow, but may try to get out and get some pics if time permits. I think BT may be interested in doing the same. Let me know if you think you may want to join.
Here comes Matmo (Cosme).. watch out Philippines

When Hurricane Ivan demolished Grenada, the British sent a naval vessel in there right away. The Prime Minister was invited on board, and it was said at the time that he was " traumatised ". Fine. Quite right.. But they did not put him back on shore for 2 days or so, by which time things had got pretty well organised !
Way to go, I say !!

(this is in reference to Burma)
the NWS conference call with local Charleston weather media is @ 4:15P...would love to listen in on that....
At 3:00 AM JST, Typhoon Rammasun (0802) [920 hPa] located near 18.1N 131.9E had 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts up to 140 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north at 13 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
====================
120 NM southeast from the center
100 NM northwest from the center

Gale Force Winds
======================
260 NM southeast from the center.
170 NM northwest from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 22.5N 133.5E - 90 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 28.5N 138.6E - 75 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 34.3N 144.4E - 50 knots [Extratropical Low]

---
starting its downgration. The JMA don't consider it a Category 5 (very intense) anymore.
ReliefWEB Link

Myanmar: Aide M%uFFFDdicale Internationale assure ses premi%uFFFDres interventions urgence aupr%uFFFDs des populations de Dala, Twantay et SeikgyiLink

Babel Fish Translation


In English:

Myanmar: International medical aid ensures its first emergency interventions near the populations of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi After the passage of the Nargis cyclone in Myanmar Birmanie/Myanmar: International medical aid ensures its first emergency interventions near the populations of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi Quickly mobilized after the passage of the Nargis cyclone on the territory of Birmanie/Myanmar, International Medical aid ensures its first interventions near the populations disaster victims of the townships of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. Monday 5 and Tuesday May 6, the teams of International Medical aid went in these zones the most touched to note the extent of the destruction and to precisely evaluate the needs for the populations which try to survive. Today May 8, International Medical aid implements an action plan urgently intended to meet the essential needs for the victims of the cyclone of the zones for Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. Human losses and property damages of great width Present at Myanmar in the townships of Dala, Twantay, and of Seikgyi (suburbs of Yangon) since 2001, the teams of International Medical aid quickly went in some of the zones most touched by the passage of the Nargis cyclone, to evaluate the situation of the populations. In these zones which they could reach, our teams evaluate the proportion of houses destroyed or damaged with nearly 70 %. With Dala, they are 91 000 people (70 % of the population) which were affected by the cyclone, in Twantay, 44 000 (50 % of the population of Township), and in Seikgyi, 24 000 people (85 % of the population approximately). In the three townships, many families met in camps of fortune, around schools and of monasteries. One of the most important camps, in Dala, gathers more than 3 000 people, who have only one or two days of food reserves, does not have almost any access to care and lives under deplorable conditions of hygiene (only six latrines are accessible for them). Other families, whose houses were damaged or destroyed, did not join these camps, and survive under extremely difficult conditions. The human assessment, for the moment difficult to evaluate with precision, risk to worsen in the hours and the days to come, the more so as on all the zones, the centers of health for the majority deteriorated or were destroyed. Strategy of intervention of International Medical aid The immediate needs, for all the families, relate to food, the latrines, of the kits of hygiene, the shelters, clothing and, after the appearance of some cases of fever and diarrhoeas, of the care, in particular for the pregnant woman and infants. After three days devoted to the collection of the data and the definition of an action plan, the teams of International Medical aid, composed of personnel and Burmeses, have implemented, for this Thursday, the first actions in favour of the inhabitants of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. They ensure the construction of latrines thus, in particular near the moved people who gathered in camps and will distriburont 40 tons of food tomorrow. The distribution of shelters, in particular of kits of construction in bamboo, is envisaged in the next days. The access to care of primary health is also ensured by the medical and ancillary medical personnel of the teams. International medical aid thus tries to stabilize the situation of the 265 000 inhabitants of the townships of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi hard struck by the cyclone, and to prevent new human losses.
ReliefWEB Link

Myanmar: Aide Médicale Internationale assure ses premières interventions d’urgence auprès des populations de Dala, Twantay et SeikgyiLink

Babel Fish Translation


In English:

Myanmar: International medical aid ensures its first emergency interventions near the populations of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi After the passage of the Nargis cyclone in Myanmar Birmanie/Myanmar: International medical aid ensures its first emergency interventions near the populations of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi Quickly mobilized after the passage of the Nargis cyclone on the territory of Birmanie/Myanmar, International Medical aid ensures its first interventions near the populations disaster victims of the townships of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. Monday 5 and Tuesday May 6, the teams of International Medical aid went in these zones the most touched to note the extent of the destruction and to precisely evaluate the needs for the populations which try to survive. Today May 8, International Medical aid implements an action plan urgently intended to meet the essential needs for the victims of the cyclone of the zones for Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. Human losses and property damages of great width Present at Myanmar in the townships of Dala, Twantay, and of Seikgyi (suburbs of Yangon) since 2001, the teams of International Medical aid quickly went in some of the zones most touched by the passage of the Nargis cyclone, to evaluate the situation of the populations. In these zones which they could reach, our teams evaluate the proportion of houses destroyed or damaged with nearly 70 %. With Dala, they are 91 000 people (70 % of the population) which were affected by the cyclone, in Twantay, 44 000 (50 % of the population of Township), and in Seikgyi, 24 000 people (85 % of the population approximately). In the three townships, many families met in camps of fortune, around schools and of monasteries. One of the most important camps, in Dala, gathers more than 3 000 people, who have only one or two days of food reserves, does not have almost any access to care and lives under deplorable conditions of hygiene (only six latrines are accessible for them). Other families, whose houses were damaged or destroyed, did not join these camps, and survive under extremely difficult conditions. The human assessment, for the moment difficult to evaluate with precision, risk to worsen in the hours and the days to come, the more so as on all the zones, the centers of health for the majority deteriorated or were destroyed. Strategy of intervention of International Medical aid The immediate needs, for all the families, relate to food, the latrines, of the kits of hygiene, the shelters, clothing and, after the appearance of some cases of fever and diarrhoeas, of the care, in particular for the pregnant woman and infants. After three days devoted to the collection of the data and the definition of an action plan, the teams of International Medical aid, composed of personnel and Burmeses, have implemented, for this Thursday, the first actions in favour of the inhabitants of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi. They ensure the construction of latrines thus, in particular near the moved people who gathered in camps and will distriburont 40 tons of food tomorrow. The distribution of shelters, in particular of kits of construction in bamboo, is envisaged in the next days. The access to care of primary health is also ensured by the medical and ancillary medical personnel of the teams. International medical aid thus tries to stabilize the situation of the 265 000 inhabitants of the townships of Dala, Twantay and Seikgyi hard struck by the cyclone, and to prevent new human losses.

Patrap:
The Babel translation reminds me of "Mission Summaries" I used in MSF. When I asked (on my way in) a recently returned volunteer for his advice he said:
"DON'T GO!"
Babel Fish was the right term for that translator.
Hurricane Iniki strikes Hawaii 1992..,Video Link

Hurricane Iniki 1992 wiki:Link
NARGIS storm Stats and More,WInd Speed recordings ,etc.

Affected Population
Up to 7.03 million people can be affected by wind speeds of hurricane strength or above. In addition, 1.82 million people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.



GDAC Link

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System provides near real-time alerts about natural disasters around the world and tools to facilitate response coordination, including media monitoring, map catalogues and Virtual On-Site Operations Coordination Centre.
"The news from Burma keeps amazing me. Those jokers have seized more UN food planes. Its kind of a shame that those people around there are not more agressive ( Thailand, etc ). It would be nice to see someone else take the innitiative and ignore the Jokers, and fly the aid in in bulk, and distribute it as it needs doing."

Why dont we just load up all the c-130s in the staging area, fly them over burma and drop the supplies out faster than the "hunta" military goons can confiscate it. Think of it as "shock and awe" carpetbombing only with food and supplies instead of bombs. If the huntas shoot at our c-140s then we show them how our AC 130 gunships work.
Rain Train starting to set up right over my head.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...

VALID 102026Z - 102230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES.

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESE AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF
THE ATL METRO AREA ESEWD TO NEAR CHARLESTON. RECENT VWP DATA
INDICATED NEARLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING STORM SPLITTING
LIKELY. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ COMBINED
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 50 KTS/ SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. A FEW LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS MAIN
MOVE JUST NORTH OF WW 294 TO THE NORTH OF THE CHARLESTON AREA
/CLARENDON...WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES/ AND A LOCAL
EXTENSION OF WW 294 MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VEERED AND GENERALLY WEAK /AOB 20
KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5 KM/ INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY JET AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONSEQUENT
HIGHER ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL BETWEEN 22-01Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2008

Take care SJ and all our friends in the Carolinas.
Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 10 May 2008
My ReliefWeb Link

Myanmar: Everything you ever wanted to know about clearing customs in Yangon


NAIROBI, 10 May 2008 (IRIN) - Good news: a fast-track customs process is available for to relief deliveries arriving in Myanmar.

The catch? Only if the cargo is consigned to the Government's Disaster Management Committee.

Aid agencies, donors or well-wishers planning anything else can review the full range of customs and other importation paperwork on a new interagency web resource dedicated to relief logistics for Myanmar.

The short version of how to fly aid to Yangon goes something like this: If planning air cargo not destined for the government, the sender has to get prior approval before lading from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and be ready to present an Import Declaration Form (CUSDEC-1), import license, invoice, bill of landing, packing list and, depending on the goods, "other certificates and permits". The Ministry of Health should issue a health certificate after inspecting any food imports, for example. To avoid paying tax on the cargo, a Tax Exemption Certificate is needed. Oh, and that is before clearing customs.

Every country has customs procedures. And the logistics departments of relief agencies earn their living getting urgent cargo through the byzantine bureaucracies and fearsome terrain.

Nonetheless, UN officials and diplomats have called on the Government of Myanmar to streamline customs and clearance procedures for the massive crisis response needed and to release cargo that has been held so far.

There's been no major breakthough in that process, judging from the latest reports on the "logistics cluster" website: http://www.logcluster.org/mm08a

Online, humanitarian workers, governments and the private sector can coordinate transport, fuel, supply chain and warehousing in a crisis. Users are checking in for daily updates on the latest issues, whether it be a concept of floating warehouses or the availability of free cargo space donated by airlines.

If the airport procedures sound daunting, road access from neighboring Thailand has is own drawbacks. A report on the site says that the road from Thailand to Myanmar is so narrow that it operates one way in each direction on alternate days.

Logistics services and coordination form some US$49 million of the $187 million appeal launched by 10 UN agencies and nine non-governmental organizations on May 10. For more details, see: Link


This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. Refer to the IRIN copyright page for conditions of use.
NARGIS Near Landfall one week ago




Map of 'Myanmar: NOAA Precipitation Map for the period ending 15 May 2008'

* Date: 10 May 2008
* Type: Reference - Political
* Keyword(s): Weather and Climate


Format:
noaa_WT_mmr080515.pdf PDF *, 2489 KbLink
Number of storm chasers out today covering the Tornado Outbreak.Watch their live streams at

Severe Studios
SJ...we can hear it out here on the island...nothing wet...but getting darker and thunder's rolling....
NEXRAD Radar
Charleston Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
looks like it may stay just to the N of you press, but these things jump around so quick it is hard to tell. I was just out for a bit and missed the hail in Moncks Corner by about 10 minutes.
If this is just a prelude to what is coming tomorrow, then watch out...
I'm ready SJ....I have two bottles of Ol' Bushmills...and a bag of Ruffles...
My NWS station in Wilmington, OH said we may even see some severe wx up here in the Ohio Valley, but says the GFS gives us a low chance of that but the NAM solution shows a good chance for some severe storms and maybe some potential for tornadoes.
Hey SJ - I dunno - I don't think it's going to come this way - just looks gloomy - no rain, nothing. Still on a tornado watch but nothing looks any different than a normal gloomy day - bad up near you?
724. JLPR
Hey guys I invite you to go to my blog and leave your prediction for the 08 hurricane season
Im holding a little contest there, just for fun. =)
My Blog
Weather Synopsis (10 May)
===========================
At 2:00 am PST, Typhoon Butchoy (Rammasun) was located based on satellite and surface data at 980 kms east of Northern Luzon (18.0ºN 131.9ºE) with maximum winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph. Forecast to move North at 20 kph

Meanwhile.. A developing Low Pressure Area was estimated at 260 kms west of Mindoro (13.0ºN 118.0ºE).
POST SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NARGIS PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 09 May 2008
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

-------------------------------------

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “NARGIS”


IMD New Delhi works as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) – Tropical Cyclones for World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)/ Ecomonic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel Member countries of the region. As part of our operational responsibilities, we issue Tropical Weather Outlook and Tropical Cyclone Advisories to all the member countries viz Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, Oman, Srilanka, Thailand and Myanmar. The summary of the bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi in the above mentioned cyclone is given below.



Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi:

1. Likely formation of low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and its further intensification was indicated in the daily bulletin issued from RSMC New Delhi and posted on our web-site from 23rd April onwards.

2. The first special tropical weather outlook for the WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries including Myanmar intimating the formation depression over the Bay of Bengal was issued at 0600 UTC of 27th April based on observations of 0300 UTC. Another special tropical weather outlook indicating the intensification of the system to deep depression stage apart from other information like location and likely intensification, movement, maximum sustained wind and sea condition due to the system was issued in the same evening and night.

3. The tropical cyclone advisories to WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries including Myanmar were issued in every three hourly interval from 28th April morning onwards till morning of 3rd May.

4. The first tropical cyclone advisory indicating landfall over Myanmar coast was issued at 0600 UTC of 1ST May based on observations of 0300 UTC. It was indicated in the bulletin that the system would cross Myanmar coast between lat 16 and 180N around night of 2nd May 2008.

5. On 2nd May morning, it was indicated that the system would cross Myanmar coast near 160N around evening of the same day.

6. The forecast for maximum intensity (T 5.0) corresponding to maximum sustained wind speed of 90 knots was predicted and maintained in the tropical cyclone advisories for WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries from 2100 UTC of 1st May based on observations of 1800 UTC.

7. The total number of operational bulletins issued for this cyclone are as follows.



International

Tropical Weather Outlook – 3 Nos.

Tropical Cyclone Advisories – 41 Nos.

Tropical Cyclone Advisories for aviation use – 19 Nos.



8. It is also to inform you that the very severe cyclonic storm, “NARGIS” crossed southwest coast of Myanmar between 1200 to 1400 UTC of 2nd May, 08 near lat. 16.00 N. The track of very severe cyclonic storm, “NARGIS” is given in enclosure-I.

9. WMO has appreciated the effort made by New Delhi office of IMD in providing the tropical cyclone advisories to Myanmar. The excerpt of press release of WMO in this regard is enclosed herewith (enclosure-II).







Dr. Ajit Tyagi

Director General of Meteorology


Enclosure-II
Press Release No. 814

For use of the information media
Not an official record
WMO network provided timely cyclone alerts to Myanmar, needs resources for improving storm surge warnings

GENEVA, 9 May 2008 (WMO) – The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar started to issue forecasts on cyclone Nargis as of 27 April, several days ahead of landfall, on the basis of information provided through the WMO network, according to information the Organization received today from the Permanent Representative of Myanmar with WMO, Mr Tun Lwin, Director-General of DMH.

However, the storm surge was the major cause of the disaster as the cyclone hit the most populous and low-lying area and the cyclone maintained its strength (category 2 or above) and moved quickly. The storm surge affected not only the coastal area but also about 30-40 km inland. A problem was the lack of a radar network to monitor the storm.



The DMH, which recently benefited from an upgrading of the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) through WMO, received accurate information on the cyclone from several WMO centres, in particular the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) New Delhi. DMH received satellite images from India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Specialized Meteorological Centre (Singapore) through the Internet. Warnings were provided to authorities as of 29 April. A press briefing was given to national media on 1 May and newspaper headlines on 2 May, the day of landfall, focused on the cyclone.

The New Delhi Office of the India Meteorological Department started to issue RSMC advisories at 00 UTC every 3 hours on 27 April, which continued until 06 UTC on 3 May. The last advisory said “the status of Nargis is a Severe Cyclonic Storm (50 knots) about 90 km south-west of Yangon”. The first forecast of landfall was issued at 06UTC on 1 May (36 hours in advance of landfall), which said that “Nargis will cross the Myanmar coast between 16 to 18 degrees north by the night of 2 May”. At 21 UTC of 1 May, it was forecast that “the maximum wind speed at landfall is expected to be 90 knots”. At 09 UTC on 2 May, the forecast was that “Nargis will cross near 16 degree North by 12 UTC with 90 knots wind speed”.
mel, it looks like late tonight through tomorrow is when things could get really dicey in your area.
Good night all...
Monsoon Forecast for east central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Current meteorological analysis and interpretation of various NWP models indicate:

Formation of a low pressure area over Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 12th May.

Further strengthening of westerlies over south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Widespread rainfall activity over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 3- 4 days.

Forecast for next 48 hours

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

---
more rain if the low pressure forms near Myanmar. The WV IR radar looks like it already formed..

isn't it May, August, and December the months for JFV question
Wow - look down at the storm list.
Photobucket

50-100 kts shear out in front.

Photobucket

...and warm SST's are about to turn considerably cooler, too.
Hope it's missing Little Rock (& everyone else)
NOAA will issue their 2008 forecast on May 31st I believe.
Rammasun very well organized right now with a very impressive eye feature. But it will be heading into the shredder soon enough.
ReliefWeb Link

Myanmar - Cyclone "Nargis" - Flood Extent May 8, 2008
Map of 'Myanmar - Cyclone
* Date: 08 May 2008
* Type: Natural Disaster
* Keyword(s): Cyclone; Floods; Natural Disaster; Satellite Imagery
* Format(s): dlr_FL_mmr20080508sh1.jpg JPG, 955 Kb

Sheet 1: Yangon WestLink

Sheet 2: Yangon City:Link

Sheet 3: Pyawbwe Region; Link

Sheet 4: Kyauktan Region;Link

More Here:Link
extreme236 NOAA'S Outlook will be out on May 22 along with Dr.Masters update on what to expect for the 2008 atlantic season.
Dry week ahead for Southeast Florida...

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVR ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BLOCKING ANY WX FEATURE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE OVER S. FL. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.


www.AdriansWeather.com
National Hurricane Preparedness Week Link


History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.


Watch the Last frame of the UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx on May 20....sports,.er Tropical Fans. Link

Baroclinc, or Semi-Warm?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm,..a tastes for you




Live Storm Chaser Video Feeds.Link
Ooops sry H23, I thought it was on May 31st...guess I was wrong
Rammasun is losing convection is it wants to maintain super typhoon status it should get another burst of clouds. what if this storm does what Flossie did last year stay strong and head toward islands until last minute where it follows previous predictions
21 days till hurricanes season
Does ANYONE want to guess when the first storm will form
1. Remainder of May
2. June 1-15
3. June 16-30
4. July 1-10
5. July 11-20
6. July 21-31
7. August 1-10
8. August 11-20
9. Later than August 20
I will say June 16-30th
Anybody have easy access to this year's list of names???
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
21 days till hurricanes season
Does ANYONE want to guess when the first storm will form
1. Remainder of May
2. June 1-15
3. June 16-30
4. July 1-10
5. July 11-20
6. July 21-31
7. August 1-10
8. August 11-20
9. Later than August 20
Live Storm Chaser Video Feeds.Link
Just stopping by quickly. Any opinions on the latest analysis of the tropical wave by the NHC? The excerpt is below.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
LAST FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS WAVE WITH ITS OVERALL
MOISTURE FIELD THINNING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING MORE ABSORBED IN
THE ITCZ AS IT APPROACHES THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS FROM 3N-7N.

Fixed News just reported 60mph SUSTAINED winds in the Memphis area....Is this likely?
Evening all

Sustained for how long? 5 minutes? sounds feasible. Those were some nasty storms in that area.



they didn't say SJ...just sounded awful...several people got stuck on a bridge there in that kinda blow...
Nargisis Eye just made a perfect circle but its still losing convection it needs a burst of convection if it is going to put up with the conditions
That is a rough blow press. Some real tragedy shaping up across the country tonight. Does not sound like it will get any better in to the morning and tomorrow afternoon.

Evening all4, I think you mean Rammasun
Oh yeah sorry so used to Nargis
I think we will have something form before the end of May, I am not saying it will amount to much, but, I do think it will form...
10 dead in Missouri and Oklahoma...20 blocks of major structural damage in Ottawa, OK
I hear ya all4, I have almost made that mistake several times.
Guys....

Check out the TVS activity here-

Link
Was that tornadoes or just severe weather also
I need more people to answer my question so I can find a date that a storm might form
It seems we sure have had more then our share of tornado activity over the past year. Having not really monitored it before, is it up this year?
There were THREE! Now, one to the S and one directly N of Holly Springs, TN. God help them!
Dominca Davis on Fox is really hot...wait...I mean knowledeable...
Good night all
769. nash28 9:32 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
There were THREE! Now, one to the S and one directly N of Holly Springs, TN. God help them!
Action: | Ignore User

Unbelievable, I hope everyone has been able to find shelter to ride all this out.
You are going to have to say a hail marry for that one press ☺

Say a prayer for all the folks effected by today/tonights/tomorrows storms as well.
Nash they're still crankin'
All this sure makes me wish I owned a fortified concrete home...
Unreal outbreak tonight. I am still in complete awe of Mother Nature's awesome power, as I was when I was a little kid.
Hey there SJ, HI.

775. StormJunkie 9:35 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
All this sure makes me wish I owned a fortified concrete home...
Action: | Ignore User

It might not help
The boundary layer is really deep. Tons of energy to work with even after the daytime heating.
768. ajcamsmom2 9:31 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
It seems we sure have had more then our share of tornado activity over the past year. Having not really monitored it before, is it up this year?


Definately - WAY up...



This is one possible reason:

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.


(note that I posted this in February 2007 since a La Nina was likely to develop; the original link no longer works)
11 dead now...
780. MichaelSTL 9:39 PM CDT
Wow, thanks for the info...Wow
SJ...covered all that tonight at mass...now I'm just drinking heavily....think tonight is gonna be OK for me and you...tomorrow have a little hair on it....
I'd say something cliche as let's hope this doesn't translate to an active hurricane season, but I won't. The only thing I am paying attention to is the weak Azores High. If that puppy is as weak as I am seeing, we may be in trouble this year. Less shear, lower pressures in the Atlantic and Caribbean...
SJ...read a letter from a guy who was here on Johns Island during the 'cane of 1886....he lived where my house now stands...I'm 8 ft above sea level...siad he was on the roof....and all he could see was ocean....
When Katrina hit, there were so many people saying we should not re-build around here and I have to admit, I kinda agreed with them. Now after closely monitoring the weather on this blog, I can honestly say, I would rather live here any day of the week. At least here I have a few days warning before a storm hits allowing me plenty time to evacuate...Earthquakes and tornados don't seem to give you much notice...
Please remind me what the "azores high" is????
Source: Action Against Hunger-UK

Date: 10 May 2008
ReliefWebLink


Action Against Hunger (ACF) sends 40 tons of aid and six additional aid workers Link


Today, a team of six additional staff will arrive in Rangoon and join Action Against Hunger’s teams already on the ground. A plane carrying 40 tons of Action Against Hunger food and relief items is planned to follow.

The situation in Bogolay is critical

ACF’s first convoy transporting relief supplies including 7 tons of rice arrived in Bogolay yesterday. Three more truckloads transporting 18 tons of rice and water purification equipment are currently on their way to Bogolay. According to ACF’s teams on the ground, the cyclone has devastated the town of Bogolay, with survivors lacking access to basic necessities such as food, shelter and medicine. Many are seeking shelter in improvised camps. 80,000 people in the area are thought to be in urgent need of assistance.
I agree press, starting at about 5 in the morning until late afternoon I think we will have to watch out.

As for the 1886 cane, guess I won't be coming to stay with you if one heads our way. It is hard to believe Hugo will be 20 years past next year. Makes me feel old!
cams mom, if the high is shifted toward the Azores Islands it is called the Azores high, when it is shifted toward Bermuda it is called the Bermuda high.
Embedded CNN Reporter from Myanmar.


Thanks, I should have known that...793. StormJunkie 10:01 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
OK, would the way the Azores high looks to be setting up tend to draw more storms towards the East Coast, towards the GOM or elsewhere???
Patrap...he was almost permanently embedded...they did their best to find him and kill him...he barely escaped...
Cyclone Nargis left a trail of destruction as it moved inland from the Bay of Bengal. An Al Jazeera correspondent reports from inside Myanmar.

797. JFV 10:14 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
Thanks, no offense taken...
At least 10 dead in Mo., Okla. in new round of tornadoes

PICHER, Okla. (AP) - Authorities say at least 10 people are dead in Missouri and Oklahoma after severe weather that included tornadoes.
Oklahoma Emergency Management spokeswoman Michelann Ooten says six people died Saturday in Picher. She says the death toll could go higher.

She says the tornado caused major damage in a 20-block area.

The National Weather Service says three people died after a tornado near Seneca in southwestern Missouri. Meteorologist Bill Davis says a fourth person died near Carthage.


Pat, press as crazy as it sound that is what I have always wanted to do. That is what I was majoring in at U of South Carolina, and those are the kinds of assignments I dreamed of. I know, there has always been something a little wrong with me.
camsmom, from what Dr Grey thought as of March 31st, the E coast seem to be the biggest danger zone, closely followed by the Gulf.
796. ajcamsmom2 10:11 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
OK, would the way the Azores high looks to be setting up tend to draw more storms towards the East Coast, towards the GOM or elsewhere???


That seems to be the consensus as I understand it so far this year. Not a good sign!
SJ...at this stage of my life my sense of adventure is satisified offshore on the boat....tho likely not tomorrow....
I just did a little research on the Azores High and I tend to agree with you...this is not a good sign at all...YUCK
Yeah, this year SJ could very well be in the line of fire! But, heck, so could lots of us, still! We wait, we see; but, like Pat exclaims, we need to be prepared.

You know that's something that bothers myself, Pat too, I'm sure. we spend millions and billions of dollars after a dreaded event; but, comparatively, very little, when it comes to pre-season awareness and preparedness. Sandcrab, the EMD from Jackson Cty, MS, has worked diligently to try and get monies spent for more and better shelters, etc...and I think he feels like he's talking to a wall sometimes. I get frustrated that we can spend tons of money (lots in fraud, etc) after a storm, but do so little beforehand.
Happy Mothers Day!

moonlight...the economics work agaisnt it...there's a hell of a lot of money to be made after hurricane....
Thanks Pat...wish I had that suit in my closet sometimes...sure could use it...
796. ajcamsmom2 11:11 PM EDT on May 10, 2008
OK, would the way the Azores high looks to be setting up tend to draw more storms towards the East Coast, towards the GOM or elsewhere???


Evening Folks.......Very somber moment this evening in terms of death and tornados.....

In terms of the BH high right now, my read of one of charts for today is that it is still "centered" basically in the mid-Atlantic right now (if the Cape Verde season started today, there would be lots of fish storms right now, for CONUS, with some grazing Bermuda)....However, the position is probably not "set" yet for the Summer and it will probably expand towards the West (when these late season cold fronts start to die down)...Based upon what I am seeing right now, I would guess a greater chance of Northern Caribbean/East Coast storms once the CV season gets into gear (Same previous observation made by StormW about three weeks ago [he called it early])........I don't see particularl threat per se for the Gulf yet, but, it is too early too tell how far West the hight will ultimately place......Florida and East Coast really need to be on guard/ready this season.....
lol pat, good one!

mlc, well said. What really amazes me is that we are not working to reduce the price of reinforced concrete homes and also requiring that they be built in our coastal areas.

I am beginning to wunder if mine will ever be satisfied press. Not sure I will ever out grow the kid in me.
797. JFV 10:14 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
I would love a season of very active fish storms...with little to nothing else...
Good points wannabe, but the really the high could set up in the middle of the Atlantic for 90 percent of the season. If it bridges long enough during any one storm, then something ends up in the Gulf. As mlc stated, wait and see. It is the way it always is. We will be addressing storm tracks on a storm by storm bases for sometime to come.
797. JFV 10:14 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
The reinforced concrete homes won't save you...I know from experience...they just won't stand up to a "Katrina"
SJ...Inside every old person is a young person saying: "What the hell happened!!!!!!!!!"
cams mom, are you talking water or wind?

As pat says, run from water hide from the wind. And if I am in a reinforced concrete structure out of the way of the water, then I am feeling pretty safe in most any storm.


I'm not looking for any severe damage or destruction, certainly no pain, injury or loss of life; but, a couple of good tropical downpours might relieve some of our drought problems.
If you can pull up my old information under "ajcamsmom", I had posted pictures of my home that was lost in Katrina...It was cynder block with rebarb and reinforced concrete...virtually hurricane proof or so I thought...
Every third brick was poured cams mom? Can you link me to the pics?
I got hit by both wind and water, I lived on West Beach Blvd in Pass Christian, MS...I came home to a perfectly clean slab and nothing else...
814. StormJunkie 11:45 PM EDT on May 10, 2008

Agreed SJ; the ultimate position will fluctuate a little once it sets, and, those friggen trofs will start creating weaknesses once we get into September and November; my thoughts right now are that the BH and shear values (as usual) will play the biggest factors and I just have a bad "gut" feeling, that Florida or the East coast is going to get walloped with at least one cat 3-4 this year...Yuck
819. ajcamsmom2 10:49 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
If you can pull up my old information under "ajcamsmom", I had posted pictures of my home that was lost in Katrina...It was cynder block with rebarb and reinforced concrete...virtually hurricane proof or so I thought...



...not much withstands a wall of water 30 feet high and upwards of 100 miles wide overall.
I hope you'll all forgive me settling a little un-weather related score with SJ.....but...my Dawgs are gonna kick the living snot outta your chickens this fall...OK...back to weather....
814. StormJunkie 11:45 PM EDT on May 10, 2008

I think I lost a post a second ago, but, Agreed SJ; there will be the usual variation this year from storm to storm, and, the usual trof weakness/timing issues going into September and October. I just have a bad "gut" feeling that Florida/Eastern Seaboad is going to get walloped by at least one cat 3-4 cane this year.......Yuck
Then I think water is what hurt you. Pass Christian was pretty much the bulls eye for a cat 5 surge no?

I rode out Hugo 20 miles inland in a brick home, and it held up great. So I have to believe that water was your real enemy. Much more powerful then wind alone.
Sorry about the double post....
ajcamsmom, my brother lived down the road from you at Acadian Village Apts in Long Beach. There was nothing left there either. Nothing. The rat seal bolts out of the concrete were sheared off evenly at the surface. He lost everything.
press, I can't really argue that we can't seem to keep our "star" quarterbacks out of jail...Arghh.
I tend to agree wannabe, just don't want anyone thinking they should be comfortable just because the E Coast appears to be the most likely scenario this year.
BTW SJ...the local channell 2 guy said we're gonna start catching hell about 4AM....
820. StormJunkie 10:51 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
I am terrible on a computer, but, if I figure it out, I will try to get them back...I posted a lot last year on Taz's blog under the name ajcamsmom...but, I forgot my password and no longer have the e-mail address I used to get it...go figure...I will see what I can do though...
There was a tractor-trailer rig left upside down in the pool there.
Katrina NOAA Impact Map. Link
830. StormJunkie 11:59 PM EDT on May 10, 2008

BTW; chuckling a little bit about your Avatar right now; was watching some Teenage Mutant Turtle movie, for the first time, on TV with the kids this am; whats with your Ninja outfit?......Lol
moonlightcowboy I am so sorry for him...it was terrible...still is...
U.S. Hwy 90 at Bay St. Louis..Bridge gone. 30 ft Surge Zone. Link
About what time I plan on getting up press.

That is ok camsmom, I tried to find your old user name and neither of your names were in the blog list. Odd. But now that you told me you were in Pass, that explains a lot. Always run from water, it does not matter how strong the structure you are in.

imho, reinforced concrete will hold up to all but the strongest tornadoes if it is built correctly.
Pat, question. MS has 81 miles of coastline I think. Your map shows surge (it looks like) past Mobile Bay, and then of course west and south of New Orleans - how far/wide is that? Has to be more like 140-150 miles?
Well; I'm out for the night, but, it is "officially" just after mid-night on the east coast so Happy Mother's Day all.....Please stay safe and tuned to NWS and the media for those of you in the line of fire from this front........Good Night
I'm a southern boy, and as much as I love the snow, I am not use to it being as cold and windy as it was that night. The picture was taken in Boone, NC.

:~)

Night wannabe
833. moonlightcowboy 10:59 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
There was a tractor-trailer rig left upside down in the pool there.
Action: | Ignore User

We had a neighbor that was a real jerk...kept driving across our yards saying he had a right to do so to get to the beach...we kept calling the police, but, he wouldn't stop cussing at us and driving on our property...anyway, my neighbors car was found parked where his house used to be after the storm...It was the only thing we all had to laugh about...Not really funny I know, but, you would have had to be there.
3 Hours at 60 Miles an Hour..Id say 180 to 200.

Houma,La to Battleship Park Mobile,Ala.
3 Hours to Drive thru the Impact Zone MLC.
841. StormJunkie 12:05 AM EDT on May 11, 2008

Lol....I grew up in South Florida and had my face covered up like that as well in the Tenessee mountains (Gatlinburg) during New Years several years ago.......Good Night
836. ajcamsmom2 11:02 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
moonlightcowboy I am so sorry for him...it was terrible...still is...


Yes, it still is bad. With him, and others, too - we're able to replace furniture, TVs, etc; but, it's difficult to replace the "personable" stuff - the photos, souvenirs, keepsakes, etc. He had a "hand-made" chest of drawers that was made by our father - very nice and of course "dads."

But, it goes further, still, even now. Thousands still living in FEMA trailers. The state(s) haven't (JMHO) adequately addressed the cont'd housing problems - both middle and lower income housing. Yet, the state has had money diverted to other infrastructure for ports, etc. Now, I'm not saying that isn't necessary and could possibly even be more helpful in the long run; but, try explaining that to someone whose life is still shattered and little is being done to bring them from the abyss of that storm! It'll soon be THREE years!

And, then, there's the insurance problem. And, I know Florida faces many of these related problems, too. Homeowners rates (if you can get coverage) has quadrupled and more.

...yes, it's still bad for many!
Night y'all, going to be getting up early to keep an eye on this weather.

See y'all soon.

A very happy mothers day to all the moms out there!
Nitey SJ. U2
Have a good sleep, wwb and SJ!

- Pat, wow, didn't realize it was quite that far! I know the nation, world thinks it was bad (and not nearly as bad death tollwise, etc as Myanmar), but I still feel as if others really don't get a full grasp of the magnitude and overall dynamics of the storm itself - so massive!
845. moonlightcowboy 11:11 PM CDT on May 10, 2008
On top of that, I tried to rebuild and my builder (who had great references and had been a contracter for 16 years on the Coast) took off with my money, leaving me to have to put my lots up for sale...GOD would need to send me a big financial miracle for me to ever be able to move back to the Coast...I guess I could win the Powerball jackpot or something...
Yeppars,,dat bout covers that.

It dwarfs all others in Size and impact,..Galveston 1900 took more lives, but impact wise,Katrina will be Queen of that category.
Dont wanna see anything bigger,ever.
But its out there.
Lurking in the future MLC.
Night all...Lisa
Nitey Lisa.Pleasant Dreams
Thanks Pat...night for real...
Lisa, sorry to hear that. Yep, there was lots of fraud.

Have a good sleep! Happy Mother's Day!
Have a good sleep, JFV, Pat, all. If you're in the severe weather line of fine, please stay safe! Have a nice Sunday/Mother's Day, all, too!
Here's a link to USGS archive:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/topics.php?areaID=13
Someone asked earlier if earthquake frequency and intensity was ramped up recently.I've watched earthquake reports almost daily for a few years and my non expert opinion would have to be:
Yes
Dang!
I know the blog has gone dead when the most recent posts are all mine. Must be something to do with time zones (it's 11:32/2332hr local)
Thoughts are with the survivors tonight (mayanmar,Picher etc)
Tropical wave no. 2 continues track west and should reach the coast in 6-12 hrs. Shower activity has become more impressive since its trek across the trp atl a few days now and the classic inverted v signiture has become more define.

i find it ironic that some of the very same ppl on here who are criticizing burma's government for lack or accepting aid are the same ones who defended our own federal government after katrina.

venezuela offered cheap oil while we were paying almost record prices at the time. bush refused that help

cuba offered to send doctors along with free medical help. bush refused that help and took 2 weeks to authorize the navy medical ship Hope to leave its port in norfolk.

russia offered the use of heavy equiptment. once again, our own government refused.

how can we criticize other govermnents for inaction when our own government sat on its ass for several days after katrina? why did our own dictator/janta leader bush refuse help from these other nations?

perhaps its a texas coyboy thing, trying to act tough when their really not.
Morning Everyone and Happy Mother's Day -

Hope everyone is safe through the storms that are ripping across...we're due for it in the next few hours - radio has been going off all night but no rain yet or anything but I don't think we're going to dodge this one today.

I hope we don't lose electricity cause the Prime Rib my hubby is making is not going to taste as good on the grill.
Florida Fisherman,
As a responder from our state I understand your point of view but whole heartedly disagree. My team along with several hundred Florida Responders arrived in Mississippi with in 24 hours post impact. I spent 10 days in Hancock County. Response starts at the local level it is up to them to cry for help. Mississippi did so, and in an unprecidented way, they hand over the response to there southernmost 6 counties to the state of Florida becuase it was beyond their capability and capacity to respond adequately. Their entire infrastructure was destroyed.

On the other hand Louisiana would not ask for help. and had our federal government or another state gone in prior to requesting aid they would have been chastised for that as well. I don't agree with Bush on alot of things, but I can't say I hate the man. But those that do will find fault with everything he does. And remember that those that died, God rest their souls, should have left. THe majority of deaths were related to flooding. like was said earlier in somneone else's post. "Hide from the wind, Run from the water."

Our government is no where near that of Myanmar, and for one to say something like that...they should probably live there and then they would realize how good they have it here.
morning to everone and happy mothers day
boy that sure is a big line of storm stay safe
Morning all :~)

That is one nasty cell to the N of Statesboro.
Hey, SJ, this thing looks like it's coming at you, huh?
For those who live in the SE United States, I have followed the drought conditions since October, and have found something interesting, Northern Georgia, South Carlina. Alabama, have had weather systems come thru every week since December. Many of these systems have caused flooding in nothern Alabama, And Georgia, yet the NOAA puts out every weekly drought monitor that says these areas are still under extreme drought conditions. Today a system came thru and dumped over an inch or more of rain in the area. Link

It seems these folks may have a political motovation for their forecast with droughts,
I am asking my fellow bloggers, to watch the systems come thru the area, then watch the drought monitor weekly and see if I have a valid point with my post.
It does mlc, but it also looks like it it loosing some of it's punch hopefully. Granted they can re-intensify in a heartbeat.
I'm pretty sure it's about 100 miles to N.O. and ~30 miles to Mobile from my hometown of Pascagoula.

Also, during Katrina, I lived about a mile or so off the beach in Ocean Springs and my house was *untouched* by the storm itself - whether wind or water, which surprised me as we neither put plywood on the windows *nor* had a really sturdy foundation or anything...

You just never know with hurricanes, I tell you... lol

Also, I'm relieved a bit that the focus seems to be more East Coast than Gulf, because people down here still need a lot more time to recover, though if we don't get another one this year, I'd be able to catch up on a PS3 and some termite removal, lol

MLC....I have been saying this for a long time and I'm just going to put it out there..............that money is going to the port and not the low income housing issue here on the Gulf Coast. Why you should ask?

with 5 or 6 new casinos coming in over the next few years the "Good Ol Boys" want the Gulf Coast to be an attraction. They love tourists and their money. Biloxi was basically broke before the casinos came in.

They don't want the low income ppl here. Ppl who can't get off their tushes to get a job. Ppl who do nothing but collect welfare ( our tax money ) The "GOBs" won't flat out say it but, if you're not going to be a productive part of the Coast's recovery, they don't want you here, you'll never hear the GOBs say it, but, that is why the money is going for the port and not the housing.

But don't worry, 2 weeks ago they re-opens some "projects" that had some damage from Katrina......almost 3 yrs after Katrina, yes you can say they were dragging their feet a bit huh?

there is over 8000 FEMA trailers still in use in Mississippi
The GFS is showing some weird anomaly north Hispanola on Tuesday.

It's marked with a high instead of a low but it shows precipitation.

We're just starting to get hit with a major line of storms...radio has been going off - just checking here to see where we're at with it...stay safe all & SJ...son is in Statesboro going to college...we're in Richmond Hill, GA and it looks AWFUL out...logging off and shutting down - ttyl...
Terra- look at the wind barbs around the "H". They are clockwise which means it is a high
876. IKE
That's a strong low over Illinois....I see why there were multiple tornadoes......
the official meteorological term to describe current conditions here on Johns Island (SC) is : YUK!
Today's probabilistic nado outlook. Be alert.



A Lert:
Dont know about the officials in Katrina,but it was the largest and safest and most complete evacuation of a a Major City in U.S. History,and the largest relocation of folks since the civil War reconstruction.

Hard to respond locally in 10 ft of Water to a MCI event too. It was the People who responded along with Fellow Americans to do the rescue/recovery work till the Feds and En Masse Help arrived 90 Hours after the event.

And not many at all would have been Lost if the Federally Designed Levee Protection System wouldnt have Failed. No one died from winds, 99% of the deaths were drownings,mostly of the elderly.In Miss and Ala too.

By August 31, 2005, eighty percent of New Orleans was flooded, with some parts under 15 feet of water. Most of the city's levees designed and built by the United States Army Corps of Engineers were breached, including the 17th Street Canal levee, the Industrial Canal levee, and the London Avenue Canal floodwall. These breaches were responsible for most of the flooding, according to a June 2007 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers. [2]

Ninety percent of the residents of southeast Louisiana were evacuated in the most successful evacuation of a major urban area in the nation's history. Despite this, many remained (mainly the elderly and poor). The Louisiana Superdome was used as a designated "refuge of last resort" for those who remained in the city. The city flooded due primarily to the failure of the federally built levee system. Many remained in their homes had to swim for their lives, wade through deep water, or remain trapped in their attics or on their rooftops
Again, what does the Federal Government have to do with rescue efforts, other than maybe the Coast Guard. "By August 31, 2005, eighty percent of New Orleans was flooded, with some parts under 15 feet of water". Guess what 80% of law enforcement also abandoned New Orleans and some of them couldn’t be located for over a week after. So Again, component local and state government makes the difference, 10ft of water or not, we have the equipment locally or state wide to assist and rescue people. Lack of local leadership and their ability to organize or even have some type of catastrophe plan in place was the problem. Hell, what did people do in the 1800’s or even early 1900’s do before the advent of instant communications? I am guessing local government had to step in and assist. Again I am not defending the Federal Government, I think their bunch of multi-millionaire selfish idiots, in which too many people depend on to fix their problems. I am just responding to floridafishermans comment. The blame starts with local government that’s all!!
DavidW221 - I have been following it as well. I respectfully disagree with you, at least as it concerns Central/South Florida. Yes, there has been an above average rainfall in a lot of areas, but the drought still persists. It will take a lot more rain to bring us out. Lake Okeechobee has been (thankfully) getting alot of rain this year, but it is still several feet below normal and is still at "severe drought levels"

South Florida Water Management has lightened some of the water restrictions, which were the strictest in history. This tells me that they are watched it and making adjustments as neccessary. Slow to make them, maybe...

BTW, Florida is in its fire season and we have had several large fires already - despite the rainfall.
Source: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Date: 11 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link
Myanmar cyclone death toll tops 28,450: state TV Link


YANGON, May 11, 2008 (AFP) - The death toll from Myanmar's devastating Cyclone Nargis has risen to 28,458, with 33,416 people still missing, state television announced Sunday.

The new toll raised the number of those killed when the storm hit on May 3 by more than 5,000, with previous official figures putting the death toll at 23,335, with 37,019 injured.

Foreign embassy officials in Myanmar have warned that the death toll is likely closer to 100,000, and the United Nations has warned that tens of thousands more could die unless vital aid reaches some two million people.

hla/cm/sls/bgs


©AFP: The information provided in this product is for personal use only. None of it may be reproduced in any form whatsoever without the express permission of Agence France-Presse.
Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Date: 11 May 2008
ReliefWeb
Disaster strikes aid shipment in Myanmar - IFRC


By Joe Lowry, Information Delegate, Myanmar

The International Federation and Myanmar Red Cross aid effort to survivors of Cyclone Nargis suffered a blow early on Sunday 11 May when the first aid shipment travelling by river to the disaster area sank. Link
Source: Reuters Foundation

Date: 11 May 2008
ReliefWeb
"Unimaginable tragedy" if Myanmar delays aid Link


WFP says food aid now on the move

Australia increases aid to $23 million

Oxfam warns 1.5 million lives endangered

French delivering aid with or without junta's permission (Updates with French foreign minister)

By Aung Hla Tun

YANGON, May 11 (Reuters) - Desperate survivors of Cyclone Nargis poured out of Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta on Sunday in search of food, water and medicine but aid workers said thousands of them would die if emergency supplies do not get through soon.
Not the new current role of Federal Government brought on by socialist influence.
For example :
Department of Health and Human Services
and Department of Homeland Security
Which were put in place by both Democrats and Republicans and was not the original intent of the Federal Government by our founding fathers.
Source: World Vision

Date: 11 May 2008
ReliefWeb
Myanmar: Crisis in the relief camps: Mass exodus sets stage for public health crisis Link


Hundreds of Thousands of Homeless Forced to Migrate North for Aid

MYANMAR, May 11, 2008 – The lives of thousands of cyclone survivors are at extreme risk as people scramble out of the shattered Delta region to find food and shelter.

Displaced people are living in appalling conditions in make-shift shelters and camps where overcrowding and unsanitary conditions are prevalent. These are the findings of a World Vision assessment team that visited 26 shelters across Myaung Mya.
Dr. Jeff Masters TV Interview on the Nargis Impact



I just cant wait till cane season starts... but now the attention is set on a 3rd world country.

Common canes..... I got $500 that a cane will develop in June. lol. Lets all bet. Same thing I did last year, 21 named storms....
Morning Patrap... I see the political stuff has invaded this Blog also.
I wouldn't know Patrap if he walked up and kissed me on the mouth...but I've had a few conversations with him...and he hardly seems the stereotypical bedwetting liberal Bush basher...the issues he addressed here involve leadership, not politics...and I suspect (in fact, I know) the USMC spends more than just a few minutes on the subject...read a couple of history books yourself...

semper fidelis....
i wondered how long that would last...the link was to an interesting article concerning the relative strength of common GHGs...and that picture was on the cover.

it's funny that the cow was considered "offensive" but two guys kissing (regardless of who they are) is not...nevermind...all is right in the world again! :)

anyway, here's the link...

Link
Presslord, I assume that wasn't aimed at me?
Good afternoon!

Just wanted to remind folks that tommorow Joe bastardi will release his full detailed 08 atlantic hurricane season outlook at the hurricane summit in Houston Texas.For more info READ HERE

Happy Mothers Day!

www.AdriansWeather.com

With some of the recent post about the president and Katrina, where were you. Im sure over 90% of you were on this blog writting what the govenment, at all levels, should be doing.

How can you say that he should have done this and/or that but you stayed home.

I think that we can all agree that the situation was handled poorly but how can you live with yourself saying what he should have done while you sat at home and did the same thing.
ah...unless you know something I don't....I'm not President of the United States...if you know something to the contrary, please give me a heads up on that....
Good Late Morning to all!

I just got back home from a nice 3 day camping trip!

Anyway, Im quite impressed with that tropical wave that is currently approaching the coast of South America..
Tillou,
Could not agree with you more! Nough said
. tillou 3:45 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
With some of the recent post about the president and Katrina, where were you. Im sure over 90% of you were on this blog writting what the govenment, at all levels, should be doing.

How can you say that he should have done this and/or that but you stayed home.

I think that we can all agree that the




i think it takes a lot of screwed up thinking and a lot of loss of personal values to have to CHEAT to obtain the presidency and then have the ROTTEN GUTS to screw it up like he has done.
The fact is THE BUCK STOPS WITH THE PRSIDENT and he asked for it
if we can keep this about leadership (rather than politics)in a time of crisis resulting from a natural disaster...then we are at least nominally on topic...
Hurricane Preparedness Week Link
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.



CNN embedded reporter in Myanmar

907. presslord 4:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
if we can keep this about leadership (rather than politics)in a time of crisis resulting from a natural disaster...then we are at least nominally on topic...


I am not sure you can do that in the US. Most of your leadership positions are filled as patronage appointments by the elected government.

I have seen very few that are filled based on skill sets, FEMA being a prime example. Until such time as these senior positions are filled based on Skill and not who you know, this problem will always come back to bite you.

In Canada we have a similar problem, except senior positions are not filled by appointments, they are filled with Senior people who have worked there way up through the system. The head of the organization is normally an elected official.

That being said, you always find people who have been promoted to the level of their incompetence.

Patrap will remember that one from the Military :)
Now, back the subject at hand... Patrap.. do I go to Cancun or P. Vallarta on Vacation this December? In other words.. which is going to be safer this year.. your turn to guess on East/West coast.
yeppars..sadly
But in the Marine Corps, one cant willy nilly experience.
It has to be gained,garnered..passed on by leading by example,Politicians,very few at least dont think or act that way.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE DEVASTATING TORNADOES EARLIER IN
THE DAY. WE/LL BE SENDING 2-3 TEAMS OUT THIS MORNING FOR DAMAGE
SURVEY. THE PICHER TORNADO IS THE DEADLIEST TORNADO IN OKLAHOMA
SINCE THE MAY 1999 OUTBREAK.
Thats a "wow" question. I'd say 50/50 on that one. Cancun easier to Bug out in a emergency evact, Id expect, but the water is soooo nice on the other side.

Bring sunscreen in Both cases..LOL
with all due respect orca...while the FEMA analogy works in this specific instance ....most others do not...NASA, NWS, and CDC are just a few examples to the contrary....and, for that matter, "patronage" appointments do not inherently negatate the potential for effective leadership....but thanks for your input on how we should run our country....
Afternoon all

Press, you make through this morning ok? You sleep through it?

914. Patrap 4:29 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Thats a "wow" question. I'd say 50/50 on that one. Cancun easier to Bug out in a emergency evact, Id expect, but the water is soooo nice on the other side.

Bring sunscreen in Both cases..LOL


Took Storm W's advice last year and did Cancun, it was fantastic. Storm gave us a 14 day forecast for the entire time we were there and was bang on over 90% of the time. He actually did better then the local forecaster who was only giving three days.

Hey SJ...we did brunch @ Mimi's...home now...clear and VERY breezey.........
915. presslord 4:32 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
with all due respect orca...while the FEMA analogy works in this specific instance ....most others do not...NASA, NWS, and CDC are just a few examples to the contrary....and, for that matter, "patronage" appointments do not inherently negatate the potential for effective leadership....but thanks for your input on how we should run our country....


ROFLMAO, I would never give suggestions on how you run your country... SNL would run out of material.
Patrap:

Does LakeShadow still come on here?
Love to know what the final count was on the Snowfall theory?
oh....that should certainly endear you to everyone here...nice job....
Wow....

95 degrees outside my house as of 1:00 this afternoon.
Year to Year SST comparison maps updated as of May 11th.
Canada, eh?

Where delivery of healthcare goes something like this: "Do ya have any relatives south of the border who can get ya in to see a real doctor?

Whose space program gave us the robotic arm on the shuttle and ISS...a feat of tecnological marvel replicated everyday across America by 5 year olds with Tinker Toys...

Whose military is comprised of those who couldn't get on at WalMart as greeters...

and whose biggest export is....well....Canadians....
ya adrian its really hot in our area its 93 here and feels like 99
ROFLMAO, I have to say it... hehe can't hold it any longer...

Presslord.. which part of West Virginia are you from?
Does LakeShadow still come on here?
Love to know what the final count was on the Snowfall theory?



Orca.....I see Lake on Sullivanweather's blog frequently.
actually...I live in a coastal area way over populated with Canadian ex-pats...
I don't know how many of you work in Emergency Management but let me give a little input from a professional stand point and not political.

All disasters whether natural or man made start at the local level. That is where the first response will come from. Once those resources are tapped out or overwhelmed requests are made to surrounding jurisdictions including state government. If the state can not fill the gaps in response it has two choices: 1- request for mutual aid from other states (EMAC) emergency management assistance compact, or 2- request for assistance to the FEDS. but in order to recieve you must ask. A rule used here in florida is planning. If you know that you are going to need some sort of assistance, ask early and ask often. It takes time to stand up federal response as that is not what fema was designed for. Fema is there to support. Many think FEMA is a response agency but the fact is that a very small percentage of FEMA is in the response business. Those assets being in the form of contractual agreements with private entities and other agencies.

The fact of the matter is that we the people need to take personal responsibility for our responss locally. Help one another. I normally respond as a state resonder, before the wind stops blowing. This starts my assessment phase. But I can not request assets deploy, unless the local EOC (Emergency Operations Center) asks for them. That is why we should elect strong local leadership.
929. presslord 5:22 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
actually...I live in a coastal area way over populated with Canadian ex-pats...


Glad we are back to talking nice :)
I assume your in Ft Lauderdale or somewhere close by. I know my Mom visits friends there once or twice a year.
agreed orca...and, for the record, one of the best weeks of my life was in Toronto...involving a ridiculous amount of beer...and a blonde whose name I don't recall...
928. StormW 5:22 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
917. Orcasystems 12:43 PM EDT on May 11, 2008
914. Patrap 4:29 PM GMT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Thats a "wow" question. I'd say 50/50 on that one. Cancun easier to Bug out in a emergency evact, Id expect, but the water is soooo nice on the other side.

Bring sunscreen in Both cases..LOL

Took Storm W's advice last year and did Cancun, it was fantastic. Storm gave us a 14 day forecast for the entire time we were there and was bang on over 90% of the time. He actually did better then the local forecaster who was only giving three days.


Thanks for the plug, Orca!!


Like I said last year Storm, you beat the locals something bad... so same question to you... East/West?
I now have to go and make the ultimate Mothers day sacrifice.. while the kids are taking the wife out for lunch..I am going to surprise her and clean up the garage :( and install the IR Sauna.

Wish me luck.
Good afternoon - everyone make it through the storms okay? And - is that it for the yucky weather for the day or do we have more coming?

mel....I'm on Johns Island....it's hot, clear and really really windy....
Afternoon mel, we could see some pops late this afternoon this evening, but they will most likely be scattered in nature.
Good - no more stuff like this morning. I was getting peeved between the weather radio and the tv both giving warnings at different times...

Any significant damage in your area?
Hey Press - where is John's Island?
mel...just south of Charleston...near Kiawah...Does that help?
Dr M has a new blog up

See y'all there ☺
Orca - just a quick note regarding Cancun & PV. PV has two areas "old" & "New" new PV is like disneyworld, or a manufactured resort, "Old" has lots of culture, real architecture etc. BUTTTT, they will not tell you how "crapped-up" they Bay is...(where I assume you may be swimming in)I was very disappointed by the water quality...it is a situation where growth has exceeded the infrastructure --sooo the sewage is often over-spilled into the Bay. The sewage treatment plant constantly overspills, and all the boats - tourist boats, fishing dump as well. I was very disgusted by this and the local government is not addressing the problem. I had some great surfing, some great meals (The Red Cabbage) etc...but the ocean was a sad awakening. We stayed in a small village/rental house on the water (very local) outside of Nuevo PV (which was no locals, only tourists) The beaches in Cancun are far superior, but I don't know about the water quality there, other then it won't get trapped in the Bay like PV. I learned the truth about the Bay via my eyes spying sewage sludge and networking w/local surfers. The people were great in PV (nicer then Cancun) we met some ranchero's and took a trail ride via horse that started at the beach and took us up into the Sierra Madre Mts. One of my most memorable rides of my life. Got to go --it's Mother's Day and even if I am off-duty I am on
Greetings.
a hot 94 here ( 91 at the airport, 10 miles north of me ). Heat index 98 !!! Feels like that too.
You know, this is a small tropical island, about 80 miles by 50 miles. It is not supposed to ever get as hot as this, and 15 years ago, it NEVER did.
I notice the difference in the vegetation, and the fact that El Tucuche mountain, at 3012 ft, used to ALWAYS have a cloud sitting on it, obscuring its summit. Have not seen that cloud in some years now, because the inversion level has gone up to 3500 feet.
This has affected the streams that spring from the mountains that run the length of the north coast ( this is the last section of the Andes, that swings east at Columbia, and down the northern flank of Venezuela, to here ( Trinidad). This is naturally affecting water-catchment areas, as is de-forestation on the hillsides.
From where I am, I can see the Andes of Venezuela, on the Paria peninsula, rising to 6000 ft. There are still enormous tracts of virgin rainforest there, and the Orinoco River ( which is no small stream) empties into the ocean right here. Trinidad is almost in its delta actually.
The Orinoco flood waters provide us with an abundant source of flora and fauna from the mainland, and it is not uncommon to see huge "rafts" of trees and other vegetation washed up ,on the south coast here, with monkeys, snakes,bugs, caiman, etc coming ashore. Its a 7 mile crossing.
Just a little ramble, on an otherwise gentle day. I'll stop now, open another cold beer.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fred, located near the northern Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.