WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Cyclone Nargis death toll in the tens of thousands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:42 PM GMT on May 06, 2008

A disaster of staggering magnitude continues to unfold in Myanmar, where the death toll from Tropical Cyclone Nargis exceeds 22,000. In one city alone--Bogalay, about 50 miles southwest of the capital of Yangon--10,000 people are thought to have died. Bogalay is a decrepit city of 100,000 that lies at the head of a estuary that leads to the sea. No doubt this narrow waterway served to funnel a storm surge over ten feet high into the city. News reports have not yet been received from the coast southeast of Yangon, which also received a significant storm surge, and the toll from Nargis is certain to go much higher.

Nargis hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as powerful Category 3 cyclone with winds of 130 mph. The cyclone took the worst possible track, passing directly over the densely populated and low lying Irrawaddy River delta. A deadly storm surge--probably around 12 feet high--inundated the delta region, accounting for most of the deaths. The storm's fierce winds killed many more. The only fortunate thing about Nargis was its small size. Hurricane-force winds covered an area about 90 miles in diameter (Figure 1). In contrast, the wind field of Katrina at landfall spanned an area about 205 miles in diameter. Winds from both storms at landfall were about the same (strong Category 3), but Katrina's winds covered an area four times larger than Nargis.



Figure 1. The wind field (black contours, in knots) of Nargis shortly after landfall, when it was a Category 3 storm with top winds of 105 knots (120 mph). Hurricane force winds (red wind barbs) spanned an area about 90 miles in diameter. Image credit: CSU/CIRA/RAMMB.

Loss of the rice harvest
Nargis' arrival came at the worst time possible, during the winter bora rice crop harvest. This crop, planted in January, and very heavily focused in the Irrawaddy River delta, was significantly affected by Nargis. Rice prices have nearly tripled in the past year, and now Myanmar must wait until the summer rice crop is harvested in September and October before adequate supplies of rice will be at hand. The impact will spread beyond Myanmar, since they export rice to Banladesh and Sri Lanka, according to Reuters.

Comments from Chris Burt
I've been in regular communication about this disaster with Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather. He has been visiting Myanmar every year for 30 years, and has much insight on the situation there:

Note this: No word yet about casualties from the Mon or Karen States; those areas not in the Delta region but to the SE of Rangoon where a major storm surge and flooding from rains may have occurred.

The government considers these areas 'minority states' and these states have traditionally been looked down upon by ethnic Burmese, They are heavily populated. I will bet they will be the last areas to receive aid, and the last regions from which we hear news so far as storm damage is concerned.

I might add this is indicative of just how bad the situation in Burma is. People who are not aware of the isolation of Myanmar, one of the largest most populated countries in the world, will not be able to grasp the gravity of this disaster. It is a country under the thumb of complete ignorants: the leaders of this county have NEVER traveled outside of Burma before. They have no education whatsoever. They live in a dream world of astrology and have maintained their control by funneling all the nation's vast resources to crony patronage and the military. China is their only steadfast friend in the international arena. Even Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and India who do business with this regime do so at hands length.

If you can understand what I am saying here you will understand just how bad the situation is.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Jakarta, Indonesia, ?? What the heck? I thought they were having a H5N1 bird flu pandemic there. Much scarier than malaria.
STL, maybe this helps. It does indeed show the changes in temps.



Thanks Taz for those awesome pics..
Here is a video that shows those pics..
About 1 minute into the video i think you will see the fury..
Link
Uh, no Space. Not pandemic but there was an epidemy. Meaning that there was a higher case reported than that would normally would be. But because the infection is quite rare and transmission is still from infected birds, the number of cases were talking about is less than 100 in a population of more than 12 millions.
JSOE, then, that sounds like some better news. Hopefully, it will not get any more widespread, and become less prevalent, too.
The method of control is the same, cull the infected birds, treatment and quarantine as well as public education. And that really counts in controlling this disease.
Actually, bird flu has killed over 110 victims and infected over 50 others in Indonesia...Indonesia remains the hardest-hit country by the lethal disease (H5N1 subtype A avian influenza virus)

Bird flu has killed over 300 people and infected over 250 others worldwide...though none of the human cases have spread as far west as Europe.

Overall, scientists fear bird flu still remains a threat for a global pandemic...the WHO (World Health Organization) hopes that a drug company will make a successful vaccine for the deadly virus before bird flu turns into a worldwide pandemic that can kill millions.

Until then, bird flu will have to be treated in the usual ways: Cull infected birds and all surrounding birds, quarentine infected areas of infected countries for a certain amount of time.
Ah thank you space : )
In my opinion, bird flu should be the greatest medical concern for not only South-East Asia, but also the rest of the world.

The world has not seen a pandemic since 1967 and it is due for one.
Were in a tight spot. On one side we have possible future pandemic and new emerging diseases. On the other side we have old diseases back with new resistant strains due to bad medical practices (overprescription, unnecessary antibiotics for virus, and unfinished drug regiments). Hmmm...
Relief aid either offered or already taken:

# US: US$3.25 million

# European Union: US$3 million.

# Canada: C$2 million

# Norway: 10 million krone

# Germany: 500,000 euros for German aid groups to provide shelter, drinking water, household utensils and mosquito nets.

# Indonesia: US$1 million.

# China: US$1 million in cash and relief supplies.

# Thailand: US$100,000 and airlifts of more than US$400,000 worth of food, water, medical supplies.

# Japan: 28 million yen (S$370,000), including tents, electric power generators and other emergency goods.

# Singapore: US$200,000 in an assistance package that includes medical supplies, drinking water, water-purifying tablets, tents, groundsheets, blankets, sleeping bags and emergency food.

# South Korea: Emergency aid materials worth US$100,000.

# India: Dispatched two naval ships loaded with relief supplies such as food items, tents, blankets, clothing, medicine and meals.

# Bangladesh: Medicine and clothes.
Complete Article Link

BOGALAY, Myanmar (CNN) -- Homeless children watched Tuesday as solemn men unceremoniously dropped dead bodies into the river of this southern Myanmar township.

CNN's Dan Rivers was the first Western journalist to visit Bogalay and see the devastation.

The funeral-like procession to the river was one of the many disturbing images of the destruction left by Myanmar's deadly cyclone.

The cyclone's devastation could be seen everywhere in Bogalay. The estimated 240 km/hr (150mph) winds spared only four of the 369 homes in a village here.

The nationwide death toll was estimated by state run media and opposition sources at more than 22,000.

Almost half of the total death toll could have come from Bogalay, according to an estimate by China's state run news agency Xinhua. Many of the survivors have been left with nothing.
They haven't changed the death toll this morning either the death toll is lower than people feared or they haven't found others
Morning everyone.

I found an image from Terra-MODIS showing flooding extent in Myanmar. First image is before Nargil, second image is after. The delta seemed to have suffered the worst flooding, as well as the land immediately around Yangon.

Chile's Chaiten volcano eruption wrapping itself in lightning.



And the eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina volcano may have caused worldwide cooling in 1601
eruption wrapping itself in lightning.


Other way around.
Morning all :~)

Taz and aspectre, those pictures are awesome. Thanks for sharing!
the road to hell is paved with good intentions...

US Lawmakers Urge Scaling Back Biofuels Mandate
"apparent" link between Alpine glacier loss and CO2 levels...



Alpine Glacier Wastage
Myanmar: ICRC ready to assist detainees affected by cyclone Nargis
ReliefWEB Link


Geneva(ICRC) – The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) plans to deliver aid to various places of detention affected by the devastation of cyclone Nargis. At the request of the Myanmar authorities, the ICRC will provide temporary shelter, emergency household items, and enough food, drinking water and essential drugs to last two weeks. In addition, it will support efforts to restore the water and sanitation systems to working order.

"We have been told that several detention facilities were hit by the cyclone," said the ICRC's head of delegation in Myanmar, Pierre-André Conod. "We notified the authorities that we were ready to act quickly, provided we received the necessary authorizations."

The ICRC is also considering how best to help family members separated by the disaster to re-establish contact with one another and how best to help in the recovery, identification and dignified management of the dead. It has drawn up an initial budget of two million Swiss francs for this initial operation.

The ICRC has already donated medical supplies to the Myanmar Red Cross Society for the treatment of 200 patients suffering from traumatic injuries, and it has provided a generator for a Ministry of Defence hospital caring for 80 amputees.

The ICRC has made four vehicles with drivers available to the Myanmar Red Cross to enable it to assess needs in the worst-hit areas. The ICRC and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies are coordinating their efforts to support the Myanmar Red Cross as it assesses and responds to the needs. The ICRC currently has five expatriate and 90 local staff working in Myanmar.

For further information, please contact:

Marçal Izard, ICRC Geneva, tel. +41 79 217 32 24 or +41 22 730 24 58
Craig Strathern, ICRC Yangon, tel. +873 762 376 710 (as of 9 May 2008)
or visit our website: www.icrc.org

Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis - May 2008


Source: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)

Date: 07 May 2008

Myanmar Cyclone: MSF teams bring immediate assistance, while additional staff and relief materials are ready to be sent


The numerous and spontaneous multiple gathering sites for the displaced means bringing the appropriate assistance will be challenging. Link
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
523. GBlet
Good morning everyone! Boy am I glad that storm here last night did not get worse. Since I am new at this, Link. I hope this works. Click on " you news" That was one wild looking storm! Lots of wind and lightning, hail. Everything seemed to turn green.
From The Times
May 7, 2008
Burma cyclone: up to 50,000 dead and millions homeless, but still no call for aid.Link

Every day, the extent of the destruction caused by Cyclone Nargis has been revised upwards, from alarming to grim to disastrous and yesterday it became clear that this is not just a local, but an historic catastrophe. Foreign aid workers in Rangoon have concluded that as many as 50,000 people died in last Saturdays cyclone, and two to three million are homeless, the worst disaster in the countrys modern history, and of a scale comparable with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Windflow Vector Model
at http://www.iwindsurf.com
Good morning all. Getting ready to head to work. Thought i would say hey. Nice Pics of the Volcanos btw.
GM ClearH2OFLa - my 24 just ended

They do look just like "waves" on this graphic
CIMSS Atlantic TPW loop
In the Orlando area, our major fuel supplier switched over exclusively to ethanol blended fuel at 10% (thankfully not 11%)


My new motor - 5 year warranty:
Will the use of fuels containing ethanol void my engine warranty?

Fuels containing up to 10 percent ethanol are considered acceptable for use in Mercury engines. Fuels containing higher levels of ethanol are not considered acceptable for use, and the use of fuels containing ethanol higher than 10 percent can void the warranty.

I guess at 10% there's no damage, and at 11%, suddenly, the motor blows up!

Follow up article - Kassab/Sentinel
"Greg Weekes, John Deere's product marketing manager, said gas with 10 percent or less ethanol should not hurt your modern walk-behind or riding lawn mower.

"Ten percent ethanol is quite acceptable," Weekes told [the reporter]. "Higher grades of ethanol can cause serious damage because it runs so much hotter."

Older equipment that has a cast iron versus an aluminum engine is likely to have problems with ethanol, he said.

Portable generators are also not likely to be ruined by ethanol gas with the proper care. I researched several owners' manuals on this subject, and they advise that alcohol-blended fuels such as ethanol attract moisture and can damage carburetors and other components if left in the tank during storage. The bottom line here is to check your owner's manual or call the manufacturer of any engine you have questions about."
Where would I find a sat view of this? Anyone?

Smoke from Lake Okeechobee wildfire affects Lee

Updated 8:34 a.m., Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Smoke from the wildfire burning near Lake Okeechobee could be smelled as far south as San Carlos Park in Lee County this morning and only the prevailing wind will determine if the smoke reaches the Bonita Springs area.

The San Carlos Park Fire District reports that smoke can be smelled in its community, while a spokesperson for the Bonita Springs district reported no smell of the smoke by 8:30 a.m. No citizen had called into San Carlos' office this morning to inquire about the smell, according to Public Information Officer Alexis Rothring.

About 4,000 acres of muck and grass are burning on the dry lake bed near Moore Haven, about 80 miles west of West Palm Beach. Fires also are burning on grassy islands in the lake.
as 50,000 people died in last Saturdays cyclone, and two to three million are homeless, the worst disaster in the countrys modern history, and of a scale comparable with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

I am sorry but I do not agree that this cyclone is in a scale comparable with the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

First, whether the Myanmar government or citizens knew the storm was approaching or not is debatable. Foreign weather agencies were monitoring this cyclone and as it grew stronger it became inevitible that lives would be lost and disaster aid would be needed in the ensuing days.

The 2004 Tsunami came hours after an enormous 9.1-9.3 magnitude earthquake, the second largest quake measured on a seismograph in the instruments history. The earthquake itself, which is not foreseen and can not be forecasted, was the longest on record, between 8.3 and 10 minutes long.

The earthquake caused am under water faultline 994 miles long to cause the Indian tectonic plate to slip under the Burma nearly 50 feet. The sideways movement caused the ocean floor to raise several meters and 7 cubic miles of ocean water to be displaced and morphed into a 994 miles long wave of destruction spanning out east and west from the fault line.

The quake and the rapid plate shifts caused global sea levels to rise an estimated 0.1 milimeters. The quake generated seismic oscillation of the Earth's surface of up to 8 to 12 inches, equivalent to tidal forces caused by the sun and the moon. The quake caused Earth's day to be shortened by 2.68 microseconds and caused the entire planet to wobble on its axis 1 to 2.4 inches. The fault line itself jutted up 33 feet and caused the entire Burma plate to move itself 7.9 inches to the south west.

Loss of human life: 229,866

Countries affected: Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand

Also important to remember the quake and tsunami struck on a holiday week in that region, Boxing Day, a religious gift-giving tradition similar to Christmas in Christian culture.

No storm could ever have such an impact on a region or the planet itself like the awesome seismic forces in an earthquake as large and spectacular as the Sumatra quake of 2004.

The geographic and evironmental results of the 2004 earthquake and tsunami may have played a role as to why cyclone Nargis was such a disaster for Myanmar.

I stand by my opinion that no storm can cause as much damage as a seismic event. Having the ability to see a threat like a hurricane/cyclone approaching is a huge advantage that increases survival rate. Even if there is no media or capable government to warn people, a storm can be felt on approach. A 50-100 foot tidal wave from a quake thousands of miles away can engulf a region in seconds with little more than a momentary low tide as the only warning before it strikes.

Please never underestimate the power the Earth has over its most precious resource, water.
For GLOBAL Imagery ,use the MODIS Rapid Response Sub-sets,near real time page Link
One can see the silt Mixed in the seawater in the Delta regions so Impacted by NARGISLink
Visible look at the area here.MODIS Aqua
True color Pixel size: 250m Link
MODIS Aqua
721
Pixel size:
250m Link
537. P451
525. HouseofGryffindor
Wow, the pictures of the volcano and lightning are really amazing.


They are, indeed. A big thanks to Taz for posting those.

I've seen shots of lightning out of ash clouds before (due to the incredible static charge built up by the ash particles slamming each other) but I have never seen a photo like that one. That display is 1000s of times more intense.

Amazing stuff!
Latest related coverage

Burma devastated
Death toll looks close to 60,000 after cyclone hit southern coast.Link

Audio Slideshow from embedded reporter. Link
Tropical Depression Butchoy is under about 20 kts of shear but models have it moving more north into less shear.

Photobucket

Photobucket

Butchoy as it moves north will pass over an area of very high OHC-Ocean Heat Content, super fuel for strengthening.
250,000?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23658522-2,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23658522-2,00.html

The death toll from Burma's worst natural disaster in living memory is officially estimated at 22,500. However the country's ruling junta admits it could go much higher and one commentator has said it could even reach 250,000.
Latest Updates
ReliefWeb Link

07 May 2008

USAID

USAID provides additional $3 million in assistance to the Burmese people in cyclone aftermathLink


07 May 2008


US: Still no word on access to MyanmarLink
158. Patrap 5:41 PM GMT on May 06, 2008
I would think it should be good for OPEC and Maybe Exxon/Mobil,BP and other Large entities to step up with CASH donations for the affected region.


Ha! Surely you jest..... The affore mentioned companies/organizations have exhausted thier resources taking collections from us and just don't have the ability at this time to turn it around.....
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23658522-2,00.html

The death toll from Burma's worst natural disaster in living memory is officially estimated at 22,500. However the country's ruling junta admits it could go much higher and one commentator has said it could even reach 250,000.


Wow. I tracked Nargis pretty much the whole way, but I never expected this. This is a terrible tragedy for Burma and it could have global impacts as well.

A lot of Burma's rice crop was destroyed by the storm. They will probably have to import now, which could cause global food prices to spike yet again. Things have been bad enough the last few weeks in that department. This could push families and communities all over the world to the tipping point.
Hey all at work now. So what is the topic. Today i will try to stay on task.
Well, this is good -- I was just checking Atlantic SST forecasts, and wow, they're calling pathetic temperatures compared to what we've been getting recently:

Current forecast for the end of May:



2007:


2006:


2005:


2004:


Not sure why the forecast calls for such slow warming. Currently, we're almost identical to the seas at the same time in '04, but they're calling for us to warm much slower.

Slow start to the season, perhaps? Good news for those in the western Gulf? Are these SST forecasts reliable?
548. KarenRei
Not sure why the forecast calls for such slow warming. Currently, we're almost identical to the seas at the same time in '04, but they're calling for us to warm much slower.

It's GW - Can't heat the Gulf as much when we're heating the whole globe.
Hmm, is the scale different?

I can't really see it (so small), but I think the one in the loop is different
KarenRei, Is that first image(the loop) is that observed or forecast through the end of may?
554. IKE
I know all about...."long-range forecasts mean little"...."it's only May"....trust me...I've been posting on here a few years........but the GFS has been latching on to GOM activity in about 9-10 days........may mean nothing...but it's been fairly consistent.......12Z GFS>>>>>>>>>>>>

Link
555. JRRP
why 2006 was more hot than 2004 but had less tropical ciclone??
NM, i see the fcst dates now.....
555. JRRP 12:16 PM CDT on May 07, 2008
why 2006 was more hot than 2004 but had less tropical ciclone??


2006 had a stronger El Nino, which also developed faster (may have been a factor also, the 2004 El Nino developed slowly). Also, I think there has been a shift towards lower activity in the Atlantic starting with 2006, as shown by 2007 and the CFS forecasts for higher shear in the same areas as those years again. Not that it matters if steering currents favor U.S. hits; 1985 had 6 hurricanes and 8 storms hit the U.S., yet was only slightly more active than 2006, by 1 storm.
Mexican Riviera in late October ( Cabo San Lucas, Mazatlan, Acapulco, etc ). Ok time to go on a luxury cruise? What major weather related disasters are possible, besides me hurling overboard?

thanks guys.
ReliefWEB Link

Source: World Health Organization (WHO)


Date: 07 May 2008
Save to {My ReliefWeb}
Myanmar: Cyclone Nargis highlights 07 May 2008


General Situation Update Link

From State Media : 22,464 deaths and 41,054 missing

Total number of townships affected: 47

- Delta Division: 7 townships (badly affected)

- Yangon area: 40 townships

Scarcity in drinking water, lack of electricity and petrol are aggravating the situation

Damage and number of injuries are still being assessed

Risk of water and vector borne diseases are being monitored
Ike,
Welcome to the 90s, we won't see much cooler until the 80s in Nov.
Coping after a Hurricane


Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster second hand through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, Federal and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plan.
Cool, I finally called the formation caracteristics of the storm headed for the Philippines!

I wish they had hopeful weather innovators on TED.com It seems like so many of us are doomers.
565. JRRP
ok STL thanks
could be the same this season
SST less hot than 2006 but more TC
CNN is reporting 100,000 deaths
I just saw the long-range GFS that IKE posted and although it's very unlikely any model is accurate 9 days out, it seems that it's forecasting a weak system to form from a stalling cold front. If you were to look at past years, all early gulf systems do form from cold fronts so the fact that the GFS is hinting at this is something to watch. But even if nothihng forms, it does appear that a strong front will affect the SE late next week.
PATRAP-Good info on post 563-We had some tough times in 2004.
558. MichaelSTL 1:22 PM EDT on May 07, 2008
555. JRRP 12:16 PM CDT on May 07, 2008
why 2006 was more hot than 2004 but had less tropical ciclone??


2006 had a stronger El Nino, which also developed faster (may have been a factor also, the 2004 El Nino developed slowly). Also, I think there has been a shift towards lower activity in the Atlantic starting with 2006, as shown by 2007 and the CFS forecasts for higher shear in the same areas as those years again. Not that it matters if steering currents favor U.S. hits; 1985 had 6 hurricanes and 8 storms hit the U.S., yet was only slightly more active than 2006, by 1 storm.

STL 1974/1985 infact are 2 of my analogs for 2008 with similar conditions to what is present and expected pattern.I posted my analogs a few days ago and got crap from a few folks here.Its funny to me how 2005 is still in many people's mind and how active it was and constantly expect every year to have 28 storms roaming through the atlantic.That year was an anomaly in every aspect.Years such like 05 only come around once every 50 years or so.I wish i can get some folks to understand that numbers in a given season dont matter and the main impact occurs with the ones that actually make landfall.A season with 1-1-1 has the chance to have catastrophic results if all goes wrong. Adrian

A season with 1-1-1 has the chance to have catastrophic results if all goes wrong. Adrian

I'm sure Burma residents would 2nd that notion.
GDAC

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System provides near real-time alerts about natural disasters around the world and tools to facilitate response coordination, including media monitoring, map catalogues and Virtual On-Site Operations Coordination Centre.

Event time line TC Nargis Link


Map Key

How are impact levels calculated?

For each track point, the population within zones affected by wind speeds of 39, 58 and 74 mph is calculated.

* If there are more than 10,000 people affected by hurricane strength winds and the cyclone is of Category 1 or 2 the impact level is set to Orange.
* If the storm Category is 3, 4 or 5 and affecting more than 10,000 people, the impact level is set to Red.
* If the storm Category is lower than 1 (Tropical Storm) and/or less than 10,000 people are affected by hurricane strength winds, impact level is always set to Green.

You know what a similar outcome to Nargis could have been felt in areas were katrina's 2nd landfall was made thankfully unfavorable conditions in my opinion kept things from being much worse then what actually happened.

Things could have been alot worse.To this day my heart and prayers go out to those folks who were impacted by katrina.I can relate to your horrible experience going through andrew's 150-160mph winds in 1992.Lets hope the quite times continue for the U.S. this season.
23, the total does have an impact in some accounts, the probabilities would be higher for a storm to affect our coast.
Nargis hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as powerful Category 3 cyclone with winds of 130 mph. The cyclone took the worst possible track, passing directly over the densely populated and low lying Irrawaddy River delta. A deadly storm surge--probably around 12 feet high--inundated the delta region, accounting for most of the deaths. The storm's fierce winds killed many more. The only fortunate thing about Nargis was its small size. Hurricane-force winds covered an area about 90 miles in diameter (Figure 1). In contrast, the wind field of Katrina at landfall spanned an area about 205 miles in diameter. Winds from both storms at landfall were about the same (strong Category 3), but Katrina's winds covered an area four times larger than Nargis.

And the Loss of Life for a Storm that was 4 times the size of Nargis,...Katrina shows how surge and Coastal lay of the Land can take many,even in the Developed Modern World.

Run from the water..Evacuate when told to.
Leave early.
There is nothing to stay for in a Super Storm, A Major,a Cat-3,or whatever.


573. GatorWX 2:21 PM EDT on May 07, 2008
23, the total does have an impact in some accounts, the probabilities would be higher for a storm to affect our coast.

Its all about the conditions that surround a hurricane when it approaches land.Steering patterns have been on our side the last 2 seasons.


The powerful cyclone that hit Myanmar (Burma) dead on this past weekend is long gone, but its catastrophic impact will linger for months and even years.

The graphic above depicts the very unlikely path that the storm took. Rarely in all of history has a storm crossed the Irrawaddy River Delta, and a storm of this magnitude may have never hit this region. Through a set of unusual circumstances, Tropical Cyclone Nargis did strike with top winds of 130 miles per hour.

The wind and the rain were bad, but the big killer was a 12-foot tidal wave that charged in off the Bay of Bengal. The wall of water pushed by the fury of the storm simply inundated everything for up to 12 miles inland. Unfortunately for the population of the region, escape was next to impossible. I mean where would one go without adequate means of transportation? Besides, most of the people probably weren't aware that the storm was coming.

Looks like another tropical wave to be introduced...

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER WEAKEN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 2N-7N AND WILL BE INTRODUCED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
24W-27W. SSMI MICROWAVE DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORMING.
Going up again :(

From the CNN front page story:

The senior US envoy to Burma estimates 100,000 dead, 70,000 missing, 95% of buildings on the delta destroyed.

UN says 2,000 square miles still under water.
HURRICANE-23-You reveal the sobering truth about the situation in Myanmar with that last post,and KShurricane just ads to my statement in my last post.
I'm stunned by the numbers now being reported caused by Nargis. I can't grasp the scale of so many people dead. I guess I don't want to believe it. And the idiocy of their government will only make things worse. I understand they are now dragging their feet giving visa to aid workers.

CNN: U.S. envoy: Myanmar deaths may top 100,000

Story Highlights
NEW: U.S. diplomat says cyclone death toll may be more than 100,000

NEW: U.N. official said nearly 2,000 square miles still underwater

Aid groups and countries frustrated by their lack of access to Myanmar

Experts predict the survivors will face long-term food shortages
CATFURAPLENTY-I read your post.It,s hard to imagine it getting worse than it already is,and it seems like it will.
Afternoon all

I see the total keeps going up, but this is what most expected and I am not sure we will have a real idea of how deadly Nargis was for sometime to come.

Besides, most of the people probably weren't aware that the storm was coming.

Even if they were made aware, I am sure many of them would not have left everything they owned. This, imho, is due to the lack of infrastructure in areas like this. They just don't have the ability to comprehend something like this until after it is over because information and education in general is a very hard thing to come by in many parts of the world. That is really what needs to change imho. It is the same thing as the kids sitting in the Mosques halfway across the world. These are not bad children, but due to their upbringing and their inability to access real information they become a product of their society.
Afternoon StormJunkie.

With 100,000 deaths the current estimate, Nargil is now the eighth deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history, surpassing the 1922 Swatow Typhoon which hit China and killed around 60,000.

The deadliest cyclone in history was the Bhola cyclone, which hit Bangladesh in 1970 and killed half a million.
577. CaneAddict 6:43 PM GMT on May 07, 2008
Looks like another tropical wave to be introduced...

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER WEAKEN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 2N-7N AND WILL BE INTRODUCED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
24W-27W. SSMI MICROWAVE DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORMING.


Yes. The PV values have increased and there is evidence of vorticity on the poleward and southern end of the wave axis.
AN ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 2N-7N AND WILL BE INTRODUCED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
24W-27W. SSMI MICROWAVE DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORMING.


Is this the nice looking "blob" that people were discussing on the blog yesterday? It is still around (visible on EUMETSAT) but has become slightly less organized. Still, it has managed to hold onto convection better than the first couple of waves that have already rolled off the African shore.

Its beyond unlikely that anything will develop but conditions are the best they have so far been off the African coast. An anticyclone is present over the system, in the upper levels.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
03:00 AM JST May 7 2008

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rammasun (0802) [996 hPa] located near 8.2N 130.6E had 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm was reported moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds within 120 NM from the center

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 10.0N 129.7E - 45 knots
48 HRS: 12.9N 128.9E - 60 knots
72 HRS: 16.5N 128.5E - 75 knots
I'm wondering if all these death tolls are grossly overrated. I say this because of the initial totals that came of New Orleans after Katrina. Still, too many people perished there even if the totals were high. Is anyone else wondering about this?

Also, the odd path of Nargis, is there a set up front that will steer other storms in a similar path? Wondering. Thank you.
588. catfuraplenty 2:45 PM CDT on May 07, 2008
I'm wondering if all these death tolls are grossly overrated


I remember that initial estimates from Sidr last year were as high as 15,000, about 5 times the official total (either way, Nargis was clearly very deadly).
590. JRRP
omg the second tropical wave in 2005 was May 8
and this year May 7(i don´t say nothing with that)LOL..
STL, no doubting Nargis was a killer that became a nightmare for thousands of people. I was just wondering about the totals. As I said earlier, it's hard to imagine so many people gone but I have to remember the poor housing conditions, the flat landscape and the swamps that were already in place.

In it self it does not mean anything JRRP, but it is interesting to compare the stats none the less.
Not only that catfur, but that area is the life line of the region. Fishing and growing communities litter that delta if I am not mistaken.
594. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows a system in the east PAC next week.....

Link
Concerning severe weather potential:

A moderate risk has been issued for Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas.

Lifted index of -10 along the Texas/Oklahoma border and near Dallas, according to the RUC analysis. Dew points are in the upper 60's and may reach the lower 70's. This would create an environment for major tornadic activity. An LI of -8 or less is described as "extreme instability".
CAPE (Convective Avaliable Potential Energy) is very high. The highest CAPE reading, 2658 J/kg, is along the underside of the dryline bulge, roughly 50 miles to the SW of Dallas. Storms are attempting to fire up here. A CAPE of 2500 is defiend as "extreme". Obviously this region is in no shortage of moisture.
The highest EHI (Energy Helicity) is located to the south of Dallas. EHI is reading at around 3.5 on average, which is described as "favorable for EF2-EF3 tornadoes".

What really scares me is the bulk effective shear. Already there are 60 knots of shear around Dallas due to the strenghtening jet. This is very high, and directional shear is optimal for tornadoes. We have a 60 kt southerly flow, excellent for tornadoes. There does not appear to be a veering in the 850 mb as of yet, and this veering has been responsible for many busts this year.

It's looking good for storm chasers, although I would like to note that the storms will be moving quite fast once they sneak into the LLJ, as storm motion will be about 50 kts. All the ingredients will come together in the moderate risk area or just to the west of it by the looks of it.

12Z ECMWF shows a system in the east PAC next week.....

A lot of the models have been saying that for a while now.
What is the gov of Burma were to claim a higher death toll in order to receive more aid? I'm just playing devil's advocate so no one get upset.... just consider it
The likelyhood of a good evacuation in such a poor area would have been very minimal had they even been informed. Lack of good roads and vehicles to transport that many people would have made the Rita evacuation look like a picnic i imagine.
The likelyhood of a good evacuation in such a poor area would have been very minimal had they even been informed. Lack of good roads and vehicles to transport that many people would have made the Rita evacuation look like a picnic i imagine.

The people in these areas barely have electricity; so I think many of the deaths occured in areas where there the technology needed to warn people (TV, radio, etc) were not avaliable. It is the responsibility of the government to protect its people, and from what I've been seeing in the news and the death toll, Myanmar failed to do so. Of course, evacuating these people probably would have proved to be an equally tough challenge, but they could have taken the initiative to warn the public (maybe dropping leaflets to warn of the impending disaster? I think some nations used to do that...).

Just my opinion.
Eumetsat really did a good job updating their satellite imagery, especially on the visible.
You still have to deal with the logistics of moving millions of people over an infrastructure that is far worse than what the US has.
You still have to deal with the logistics of moving millions of people over an infrastructure that is far worse than what the US has.

Yes, but i mean, if you can't move them then you should at least take the time to warn them.
Eumetsat imagery of the tropical wave within the ITCZ.
wave
Nothing in the way of a surface circulation, but Quickscat is showing isolated 50 kt+ wind barbs.
Philippine Atmospheric Geophyical Astronomical Services Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00PM PST, "Butchoy" has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move in a west northwest direction.

Tropical Storm Butchoy (Rammasun) located near 7.8N 132.3E or 610 kms east of Mindanao has 10 minutes sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots.
Afternoon StormW! Hope everything's going well.

That wave will likely die soon, but the anticyclone over it could keep the convection going for a while. This is the most "organized" wave yet in my opinion.

Eumetsat has a "rapid scan" product that will be becoming avaliable next week. It will scan the area off the African coast (moving west from 9.5 E) every 5 minutes.
I wonder when the ITCZ will start to pull northward this year.
607. TerraNova 8:58 PM GMT on May 07, 2008
Afternoon StormW! Hope everything's going well.

That wave will likely die soon, but the anticyclone over it could keep the convection going for a while. This is the most "organized" wave yet in my opinion.


I think the first tropical wave to come of the coast of Africa was more impressive. The PV values were higher too. Dry stable air reduced to convection of the wave. That same wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Lets hope we can at least get through June without any named storms. The price of crude is around $123.50 a barrel. Ouch!
611. GainesvilleGator 4:09 PM CDT on May 07, 2008
Lets hope we can at least get through June without any named storms.


I wish we could, but, I doubt it...

I paid $100 even to fill my suburban today...yuck!!! Guess I will have to start staying home more...
Are ya'll posts taking a lot longer then they used to to show up???
614. JRRP
the second tropical wave on the way
Good afternoon

612. ajcamsmom2 9:34 PM GMT on May 07, 2008
I paid $100 even to fill my suburban today


Wow, thats a pocket-cruncher
The early season waves are rather high in frequency and cloud pattern at point of genesis.
These*
ReliefWEB Link


Dubai to build 200 schools in storm-ravaged Myanmar Link

Source: United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)
Food aid flights set off for cyclone-hit Myanmar

Washington DC, 7 May 2008 - The World Food Programme has sent four aircraft loaded with critically needed food aid and other relief items for thousands of people struck by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar.

Thousands of people will start getting ready-to-eat high energy biscuits as early as tomorrow morning.Link

‘Time is of the essence and we are already reaching storm victims with food. We are mobilising all possible resources to save lives given the massive disruption in food, water, and shelter caused by this storm,’ said WFP Executive Director, Josette Sheeran, speaking from Washington D.C.
Yea, I agree Weather456 the inverted V signature has been well defined with the two waves we have had so far.
Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis (as of 7 May 2008) - Situation Map PDF: Link

Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis - TerraSAR-X acquisition footprints (scheduled for May, 8th 2008)JPEG: Link
623. Inyo
Just because Al Gore is dumb, doesn't mean that AGW isn't happening. I agree though that equating this hurricane to AGW is a bit sketchy.

If the volcano keeps belching sulfur, it may complicate the climate debate even further, as it would possibly negate the recent warming trend for a while.
If the volcano keeps belching sulfur, it may complicate the climate debate even further, as it would possibly negate the recent warming trend for a while.

It is already well-known that volcanoes cause temporary cooling; it last occurred in 1991 (Pinatubo) and in some cases even more extreme (like 1816, when blizzards occurred worldwide during the summer - even in some tropical areas; needless to say a repeat of that today would be truly catastrophic considering the current food crisis), I don't see how this would cause any debate..
I bet Al is trying to figure out a way to stop that volcano. LOL. Couldn't help it. Seriously though. Al Gore is brain dead. He is similar to the maniacs at PETA who want to ban horse racing. HUH!!! I love animals and mostly respect what PETA is trying to do, but I don't want the heads of my organization to be mentally deficient. How can anyone support a movement when their leader is obviously a fanatical loony on the subject, issuing a press release everytime a significant weather event occurs.
Good Evening All......If you look at the "worldwide" tropical cyclone season, as opposed to any particular region like the Atlantic Basin, or, Pacific, then the upcoming Atlantic Season (for the next several decades perhaps) will pale in comparison to the tragedy of Nargis.....It is pretty incomprehensible to me in terms of the sheer numbers...............
pretty interesting story about the devastating impacts of space weather...

Link
Gore,Weather,Horse Racing..

Al is leading someone?,I thought he was a Former VP.

He gets better Press than the Current President.

What's his name,er..Tree, or Shrub,

Oh yeah,Bush!

I gotta read less.LOL
Patrap, that's mighty disrespectful, you know?

His proper title is El Presidente Jorge Bush!

:)
Or.."The Decider"..
I'm scheduled to do a live interview on
http://www.aljazeera.net/english

for 5 minutes, between 8pm and 8:30pm EDT.

Jeff Masters
or the "Sensifier"! :)

he is very good at decideification and oratation.
hi dr m i sent you some WU e mail
I am just glad I wasn't old enough to vote in 2000 between idiot 1A and idiot 1B. Anyway, I enjoy the ridiculing Patrap, one comes to expect it when they express an unpopular opinion. Even though I am a registered democrat and disagree with almost everything Bush does (which I mentioned earlier so I don't know where you're going with that) But really, it doesn't at all concern a true intellectual such as yourself that the leader of the whole global warming movement(and he is a leader, and it is a movement) is a certified loony that explains a 1/2% increase in CO2 to events such as Cyclone Nargis or the Greensburg Tornado that have happened throughout history. He is using it to line his pockets. Sheep will follow the Shephard. I don't care about his political affiliation. An idiot is an idiot. Bush is such an idiot, he is going against his party lines supporting more stringent measures and increased taxes to STOP Global Warming. Global Warming is the ONLY thing the dumb SOB has been correct at being stubborn about over 7 years and now he turns to the dark side. It's laughable.
Thanks for the update Dr M. That should be interesting.

Year to year SST comparison maps are back up, and by the looks of things temps are comparable to a past year I will not mention
634. you don't sound like much of a democrat...maybe you're more conservative thatn you know! :) they call 'em "Texas Democrats" down here...
how come no one ever questions Al Gorelione's carbon offset (read indulgences) or ethanol investments?
nothing will change in the gov. till we can get all of congress to quit fighting against each other need a real president. wow quit warm where you are patrap only 91.9 here in z-hills fl.
Wow Jeff Masters on arabic radio/television network.. :0
I voted Kerry 04 and have seen Obama twice. I have a bumper sticker that says "Gas 4 dollars a gallon, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" So yeah, I am a democrat. It just pains me to see most of my friends and many of my collegues that I graduated with blindly follow Al Gore just because he is a democrat and republicans hate him. When I clicked on yahoo, and saw this latest Al Gore disgrace I guess it just flooded in how ridiculous(and possibly desperate after the harsh winter) this guy is to convince people that we are doomed by a negligent amount of CO2. It shouldn't be a political issue, but obviously it is.
Looking forward to the interview. Awesome, we get to hear Dr. Masters remarks on Nargis Live.

Thanks for the heads up.
Really when you think about it whos going to stop the oil companys from increasing prices. not one of the candidates running imho can do anything. all though i did hear that prices should stablize by the end of the year per my friend at bp oil. now how do they know that!!!!
aljazeera has really come along in the last few years as a respectable and diverse journalistic force.

The networks have a viewership of well over 150 million. That doesn't include web and other resources.
Anyway I think I am going to tune into Al Jazeera and watch Dr Masters unless he starts talking about global warming. Dr M, wake up and smell the coffee about Global Warming before you end up looking like Hillary Clinton trying to explain why she voted for the Iraq war.
Well I was planning on watching Dr M, but can not get FF to accept the Real Player plug in...Arghh
Whats the link to the actual interview?
By the looks of things, The Atlantic is warming quite a bit...
JF, I think you will select the WATCH NOW in the upper left of that page at 8:00 and then at some point Dr M will be on for 5 minutes.
NOAA is accepting public comments on the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (shrinking the cone 50%, 7 day forecast, intensity, etc.)
all though i did hear that prices should stablize by the end of the year per my friend at bp oil. now how do they know that!!!!

Perhaps BP has decided to stop having plant 'incidents', repair worn equipment and replace deteriorated piping.

That's just my opinion. I wouldn't hold my breath though. Having federal safety investigators helping you run your daily plant operations isn't good for production numbers.
:>O
I am a democrat.

eeeeek! how can you live with yourself? :)
i agree with you though, howard...Dr. M. needs to lay off the AGW talk if he expects it not to permeate his tropical weather blog....
howarjo1943 11:28 PM GMT on May 07, 2008
I voted Kerry 04 and have seen Obama twice. I have a bumper sticker that says "Gas 4 dollars a gallon, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" So yeah, I am a democrat. It just pains me to see most of my friends and many of my collegues that I graduated with blindly follow Al Gore just because he is a democrat and republicans hate him. When I clicked on yahoo, and saw this latest Al Gore disgrace I guess it just flooded in how ridiculous(and possibly desperate after the harsh winter) this guy is to convince people that we are doomed by a negligent amount of CO2. It shouldn't be a political issue, but obviously it is.


Of course it should be a political issue, what planet are you living on? Please don't muddle science with your own personal prejudices.
TEXAS GULF completely agree with you and i am not holding my breath just telling what i hear kool
I used a lil round trip..Try the Link here for Jeff Masters Interview.


Link
I installed the player and still can't access the it...
Try the Link and select the low bit data rate.Link
i instulled it and i got the news on there
I will upload it thru YouTube and Post.
good and to the point inteveiw. wish they would not of said shrimp farm cause thats my trade
Just saw Dr. M on Aljazeera........Good for You Dr. M.....Nice Job in spite of the very "choppy" questions, from the Newsman....You make a good case for "restoration" of coastal Mangrove barriers that have been mowed down in many areas/places in the name of coastal development, or, agriculture and a great example as to LA.....Don't mess with Mother Nature......
659. Patrap 12:20 AM GMT on May 08, 2008
I will upload it thru YouTube and Post.


Thanks
Al Gore is now saying that global warming caused Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar; AS IF the Bay of Bengal has never had a devastating cyclone before. Nice way to shamelessly try to take advantage of other peoples misery for your own personal gain AL. As a degreed meteorologist, I find these claims are laughable, and I am appalled that so many blindly follow along with this piece of trash.

Amen and well said. Al Gore's Warming (AGW) has a lot in common with Louisiana politics. Policy and public opinion that benefits the policy maker more than anyone else but on a much grander scale. Most of the time common sense and real concern for the fellow citizen are left behind.

Thanks, Pat. Came on too late to open the video link.
Thanx for mentioning about Louisiana coastal wetland loss and its impact on Katrina's surge Dr. Masters.
Coastal restoration is the first Line of Defense for Surge way before the Levee Protection System.
Coastal restoration is the first Line of Defense for Surge way before the Levee Protection System.

Pat Fitzpatrick is running ADCIRC right now working out some of the details behind a number of hypothetical storms and the impact of wetland area on the surge. Currently using ADCIRC's ability to handle changes in frictional flow over differing land-use designations.

Working out some kinks, but should have some results soon, at least by the IHC (Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference) next year (March?)
Should be interesting to see the data results from that atmo.
665. atmoaggie 6:38 PM CST on May 07, 2008
Coastal restoration is the first Line of Defense for Surge way before the Levee Protection System.


Here in Florida, and I am not an expert on Zoning Laws and the exact way of how the law works, but, coastal developers have to pay to help "restore" a certain amount of Mangrove shoreline areas whenever their developments are built on the coast and displace natural shorline barriers......I think that the "loophole" is that the restoration projects are usually in envirnmentally sensitive areas which are not threatened/protected against coastal developments anyway........They really need to put a moratorium on any new coastal developments, particularly, on coastal barrier islands and coastal wetlands in hurricane prone areas.........
Not that any one here cares about facts, But Al Gore actually said this:

"And as we're talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated," Gore said. "And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China - and we're seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming."

And even went further to say:

Its also important to note that the emerging consensus among the climate scientists is although any individual storm cant be linked singularly to global warming weve always had hurricanes, Gore said. Nevertheless, the trend toward more Category 5 storms the larger ones and trend toward stronger and more destructive storms appears to be linked to global warming and specifically to the impact of global warming on higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.


So might you guys give the talking points a rest. That whole flap is nothing but fabricated controversy.
sigh... Ya never even bothered to read past the headline, didja howarjo1943?
Jes cuz a paid-to-be-whacko posts creative*misinterpretation on the Web don' mean ya hafta repeat it as Gospel.
Gore's FreshAir interview is available online.

[deleted my question cuz Patrap already answered it]

* also known as lying
Drak...656...I had trouble viewing in FireFox. I did get it to work in IE though. That said, I missed the interview cause I was out picking up dinner.

Evening and good to see ya wannabe ☺

They need to do a lot of stuff, but as someone else said, we often don't do the things we need to do.

A note on Nargis and the government response. To me it seems that the easiest and most effective thing they could have done to prevent this massive death total would have been to build adequate shelters throughout the delta region. I say this because they know they can not inform everyone fast enough, and even if they could they do not have the resources or capability to evac such a large area.
I have read over and over again here that you should "run from the water" but I have to say - I live in a town that has been relatively unaffected by hurricanes - we are only about 10 feet above sea level where I live and yet folks are saying they would stay and that nothing will hit here - no matter when the gov't says -they just don't believe it. I know Sav hasn't been hit here in a very long time but I do believe it's possible and if I hear a Cat 1 is heading our way, I'm gone. It will be a huge fight but we are two blocks away from the intracoastal and I'm not willing to take the chance. I just don't think folks understand the flooding issues. I keep telling hubby - would you rather leave or listen to me rag on you for 5 days on top of the roof with three kids, three dogs and our mom...telling "i told you so."

His response..."we have a boat"
Im uploading the video of Dr. Masters and will post it as soon as it is processed.
Look back a few post to see the TV Link.
At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Rammasun (0802) [996 hPa] located near 8.6N 131.0E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The storm was reported moving northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds within 120 NM from the center

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 11.0N 130.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
48 HRS: 14.3N 129.5E - 65 knots [CAT 3]
69 HRS: 18.1N 129.4E - 80 knots [CAT 3]

edit: oops, 80 knots is still considered Category 3 to the JMA.
The Vacarellas Had a Boat here too,and the Neighbor.Worth the wait to the 2 Minute mark on this one from Aug 29th 2005



source

Mo warmer waters here though

Dr. Jeff Masters Interview from this Hour..recorded Live as it ran.



Drak...656...I had trouble viewing in FireFox. I did get it to work in IE though. That said, I missed the interview cause I was out picking up dinner.

Evening and good to see ya wannabe ☺

They need to do a lot of stuff, but as someone else said, we often don't do the things we need to do.

A note on Nargis and the government response. To me it seems that the easiest and most effective thing they could have done to prevent this massive death total would have been to build adequate shelters throughout the delta region. I say this because they know they can not inform everyone fast enough, and even if they could they do not have the resources or capability to evac such a large area.
Gore: “It’s also important to note that the emerging consensus among the climate scientists is although any individual storm can’t be linked singularly to global warming – we’ve always had hurricanes,” Gore said. “Nevertheless, the trend toward more Category 5 storms – the larger ones and trend toward stronger and more destructive storms appears to be linked to global warming and specifically to the impact of global warming on higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.”

He IS hedging his bets in this, but the point is still that he is using this storm, and it's misery, to push his agenda with no proven link to tie the cause/effect together. The link is still highly debatable and not completely proven...scientifically, only by Gore's selected concensus group.

I put this up there with Georgia's president whining for a playoff less than a day after LSU wins the BCS. There are more tactful times.
Thanks Pat!

Dr M looks like he has somehow gotten back some of that hair that he may have lost during his Hugo flight. :~)
A "Hairy" Flight that was SJ! ..LOL
Thanks Alot Patrap!
Thanks for that Patrap...we're outta here if that happens in this area. No motor boat - a sail boat...we're okay but not that good to avoid power lines with a 23 foot mast...good footage - I'm saving that one...
lmao pat ☺
Nothing like seeing surge Video from the ones who go thru it.
One can rest assured they learned the Hard way.
One can lose everything ..but to lose ones life is avoidable.
Evactuation is easy if one plans for it.

Urge others to follow your lead.
679. StormJunkie 9:03 PM EDT on May 07, 2008
Thanks Pat!

Dr M looks like he has somehow gotten back some of that hair that he may have lost during his Hugo flight. :~)

lol!
671. melwerle 6:55 PM CST on May 07, 2008
I have read over and over again here that you should "run from the water"


I'm not saying run from the water (the shore is just too a beautiful a place to live/work/play when Hurricanes do not threaten).....I'd just like to see less future development, and, more parks/public beaches on the shorelines......If I could afford the land and insurance, I would probably live on the coast myself, but, I'm content with using parks and local lodging to get to the beach and ocean right now (If I can find the mandated "public access" locations which are so cleverly "hidden" from the public [and with no place to park anyway] by so many coastal communities around Florida......I used to fish as a teenager/young adult from many beaches behind exclusive homes/developments and (it never happened) was ready to tell any local police "called on me" by local residents that the "water line" was always public and they could not arrest me for wade-fishing behind these places.........Problem is of course that I had to park very far away so I finnaly gave up the practice and switched to boat fishing behind these places (I found some killer seatrout holes, from my land shark days, right behind some of the condos/homes in South Florida which I now access by boat when I get down there).............
Thanks for posting it Pat!

Guys watch it all they way through and catch the part about "No evidence supporting frequency and/or intensity in the Indian Ocean" contributable to GW.

Gore is a self-serving bum. If the true agenda was once simply environmental responsibility, his credibility and fear tactics have left him in the realm of fairy tales. Nice story, but truthiness...none.
683. StormJunkie 7:08 PM CST on May 07, 2008

Nice to "see" you too SJ....Been a little busy lately but found a little time this evening to join in.......This Blog is a great place to unwind and chat when I get stressed out cause of work and this coming month will be very hectic...........Looking forward to Blob watching once the Season begins....
Thanks Patrap...good advice.

You all have a great night - guess I should go pay attention to the family before storm season really hits...

cheers...
I think that the "loophole" is that the restoration projects are usually in envirnmentally sensitive areas which are not threatened/protected against coastal developments anyway........

Again, Florida seems not to have any real fear of a serious storm surge. Building codes, storm shutters, and hurricane straps will not achieve that.
Photobucket

Tropical Storm Rammasun (moving slowly nw with sustained winds of 40 mph and higher gusts). If it follows the GFS track, it will run straight into a really hot pool of water. (OHC-Ocean Heat Content) image from CIMSS.



Of course, this thing may still turn out to sea, but it's likely to strengthen first.
JFLORIDA, thanks for the facts on what Al Gore actually said.

Al just rubs many people the wrong way. I, like many, think he's a hypocrit and that he is sensationalizing global warming to hype people's interest in 'carbon credits', in which he stands to make a lot of money.

People don't like others who are smug, hypocritical, condescending or who tell half-truths for their own financial gain. While individuals may have Al pegged all wrong, the general population doesn't like him collectively for good reason. Every time he opens his mouth, it seems Al is just using everyone around him for his own agenda.

If he was genuine... don't you think people could tell the difference? Give the guy credit though... he did fool most of the people some of the time. That (and manipulation) is how he got an oscar for an inaccurate documentary.
That water looks dangerously hot favoring rapid intensification of the system. Its been a slow developer but with the hot waters ahead its likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Sure will, Drakoen, and only about 5-10 kts shear in the present.
693. Drakoen 1:26 AM GMT on May 08, 2008
That water looks dangerously hot favoring rapid intensification of the system. Its been a slow developer but with the hot waters ahead its like to strengthen to a major hurricane

----

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 11.0N 130.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
48 HRS: 14.3N 129.5E - 65 knots [CAT 3]
69 HRS: 18.1N 129.4E - 80 knots [CAT 3]

yup the JMA is expecting a near "very strong" typhoon by Friday/Saturday.
JMA scale using 10 minute sustained winds average
============================

25-30 kts = Tropical Depression
35-50 kts = Tropical Storm (CAT 1)
50-65 kts = Severe Tropical Storm (CAT 2)
65-85 kts = "Strong" Typhoon (Cat 3)
85-110 kts = "Very Strong" Typhoon (Cat 4)
>110 kts = "Intense" Typhoon (Cat 5)
Thanks for the link, Patrap, and for the "why ya shouldn't hang around for the flood" video.
Looking forward to seeing Dr.Masters on YouTube.
"No evidence supporting frequency and/or intensity in the Indian Ocean" contributable to GW

I suppose these maps are wrong then? They clearly show that warmer water = stronger storms. Thus, global warming = stronger storms. As for frequency, that is an entirely different matter (for example, increasing shear, as some models forecast for the Atlantic, would tend to reduce the number of storms, but with warmer water any storms that find a favorable environment can get stronger, pretty much what happened last year).
2nd ...TROPICAL WAVE of the year


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED 60W SOUTH OF 13N
AT 07/1800 UTC. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED EVER SINCE
IT WAS PUT ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. IT MAY BE OMITTED
FROM THE 08/0000 UTC ANALYSIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W



-100,000 seconds.. blog time system is going crazy again. LOL

ill fated tropical wave.. guess it won't make it to the East Pacific.
Anyone been watching that wave near 26W and 9N? It appears to be quite impressive....for this early in the year.
690. atmoaggie 7:19 PM CST on May 07, 2008
Again, Florida seems not to have any real fear of a serious storm surge. Building codes, storm shutters, and hurricane straps will not achieve that.


It all depends on when the "right" storm comes through; in the Big Bend region of FL, storm surge is always a huge problem because of the shallow coastal waters and we do not need a direct hit to sustain loss of waterfront properties/restaurants, etc......I'm also thinking of Andrew in 92 in South Florida; the eyewall actually came ashore around a mangrove shorline area in South Dade which was not as "dense" let's say Downtown Miami but thw wind took it's toll on inland housing; if a Cat 3 or 4 made a direct hit on a coastal "downtown area" in some surge prone area of Florida, it would be a tragedy and remendous "wake up" call.......Problem is, as some of you have mentioned, that these types of major stikes on a densely developed shoreline/downtown area are often decades apart and people get complacent during the gap.......It's really only a matter of time before it happens.....Bottom line?.....Evacuate if a big one is headed your way and get the people out of harm's way from a potentially deadly surge.....

CA, have not been watching it, but just took a look. It looks to me like it is closer to 5N at best and that seems to be a little far south for any development even if conditions were good. The ITCZ will have to ride north before we see any real chances of development in that area. I would expect that some of our first real areas of interest will come from a stalled frontal boundary or something in the Carib.
704. StormJunkie 2:05 AM GMT on May 08, 2008

Wow GREAT observation, I didnt realize it was that far south. Yeah the ITCZ would have to rise quite a bit.
Regarding post 675.

Good idea to bring out the empirical data, but could that be a cool water wake created by Nargis? What did the SST's look like a week before?

Cyclones stir up the water which is why deep warm water like the loop current and Gulf stream provide is so potent. When cyclones stir up deep warm water they bring more warm water to the surface, not cold.
With all the comments about evacuating from a surge, it is worth noting that if you are 30 feet above sea level (not much) you are above all but the worst surge possible.

That said, inland flooding can be dangerous. So if you are 30 feet up and everyone around you is higher, then you have another problem. Cyclones produce prodigious amounts of rain if they move slowly or stall out over an area. They also can interact with mountainous terrain to create horrendous rainfall totals due to orographic lifting. Land slides in mountainous areas can be devasting.

Every situation is different. Avoid knee jerk panic and use your head. Do not be complacent, use your head.
Yeah, the wave in the CATL (27W,6N) is too far south, for the "Coriolis effect" to take place. An anticyclone is over the system as well, so that's probadly why convection is persisting...JMO
Good idea to bring out the empirical data, but could that be a cool water wake created by Nargis? What did the SST's look like a week before?

around 30-32C.. the SST currently appear to the 28-30C in the Central and Eastern Bay of Bengal.
LOL, Melwerl, 689. If I were 10 ft above sea level "That's it Leroy, I'm gone!"
Have a Nice Evening All.........BBT
Yes I know it isn't reliable and yes I know it will change and its a long way out... but...

at around frame 250 just as the GFS drops resolution in the long range, there looks to be some cohesion (two days) in some kind of GOM event.

Thats all for now, and the only reason I mention it it is the first time this year I have something like it over water in the GOM.
this is me

You have posted 24842 comments in all blogs.


how many do you have???
I like quiet. Thats actually how the blog runs. Its too much or dead.
Thanks, God (709). Looks like a cold water wake then.

For what it is worth, I think JFLORIDA (668) hit the nail on the head though: "fabricated controversy."
Maybe you should put on a shirt!
You got me beat Taz! I'm trying to catch up tonight though, hehe.
Hmmmm, need empirical data.

Is that redundant? On second thought, you can keep your data on that subject.
ReliefWEB Link


Myanmar: Cyclone Nargis OCHA Situation Report No. 4 Link
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System provides near real-time alerts about natural disasters around the world and tools to facilitate response coordination, including media monitoring, map catalogues and Virtual On-Site Operations Coordination Centre.

Event time line here with the real numbers on Stats from Nargis.Link
Myanmar, Thailand

EMM News Brief
This page shows only articles related to the event type and country that were published after the event date.
Further links:
EMM NewsBrief
EMM NewsExplorer
EMM runs continuously, scanning and checking all newly published articles of over 650 sources against multi-lingual lists of keywords. Each on-line source is checked as frequently as every 15 minutes. An classification scan of 6000 keywords against 350 subjects on a new article is done in a fraction of a second. A news search is also performed in the Yahoo news service to discover news as early as possible.
News from Europe Media Monitor


Calls for Burma to allow aid workers in as Cyclone death toll rises Link
Low level jet set up over Houston area.

Strange to watch low level scud zoom overhead in the night sky with just a nice breeze at the surface.
Dr. Jeff Masters Interview ..recorded Live as it ran earlier at 8:17 EST

punishing them both was kind of bad.
716. HouseofGryffindor 2:49 AM GMT on May 08, 2008
I feel like every time I come here I scare everyone away - it always gets quiet! :)

MAYBE YOU SHOULD PUT SOME CLOTHES ON!
TWC, mind candy for the Masses.

They actually missed reporting a Live Tornado in Atlanta,their own City.. cus they were running Pre-Programmed BS. A viewers comment Link

We Never watch them.
Cool video of Dr. Masters...And he didn't even plug his site!
Good evening all....always nice to see that Michael is degrading Doctor Master's blog.
That is nonsense. It has nothing to do with the WU.
Just knock it off please.
Patrap thanks for the video of Dr. Masters. thats the first i have seen of him live on TV so it puts him in a new light. He definately is very knowledgeable.
Thanx Stormxyz..Dr. Masters Has great insight as to Tropical Landfalls and their Impacts.





Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 07 May 2008
ReliefWeb
Myanmar: First visas issued to international relief teams


BANGKOK, 7 May 2008 (IRIN) - John Holmes, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said in New York that four Asian members of a UN disaster coordination team had obtained clearance and would arrive in Myanmar on Thursday. A fifth team member, who is not Asian, had not yet obtained clearance. A UN plane from Italy would be also be arriving with supplies and another team. Link


Facts about Myanmar's international humanitarian aid

YANGON, May 7, 2008 (AFP) - Following the deadly cyclone Nargis in Myanmar that claimed at least 22,000 lives and left 41,000 people missing, many countries have pledged emergency aid so far totalling some 17 million euros (26 million dollars). Link

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rammasun (0802) [996 hPa] located near 8.7N 131.0E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The storm was reported moving north-northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
======================
180 NM southwest from the center.
120 NM northeast from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 11.1N 130.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
48 HRS: 14.3N 129.5E - 65 knots [CAT 3]
69 HRS: 18.1N 129.4E - 80 knots [CAT 3]
602
603
604
605
delete
no one nvere said any thing to me about i cant post any # like that in dr m blog so in tell some one say some in to me about then i do it some time but if some one dos say some in about it to me then i wont do it any more


far?
to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.

Retrieved from "http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs_-_Dr._Masters%27_Blog_Content_Rules"


look like they added some things
What's to watch?


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 31N IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
S AND LIE ALONG 26N THU AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN.
MODELS FLUCTUATING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER S AND
RETRACT E EARLY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FRONT TO SLIP OFF TX COAST
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A
LITTLE THIS MORNING AND NOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE W OF
90W...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI
THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AGAIN SAT. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS N
TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT MON.

SW N ATLC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 31N59W TO 23N78W AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF 65W TONIGHT AND THEN E OF 55W ON THU
NIGHT. CURRENTLY SW WINDS TO 20 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING IS LOSING UPPER SUPPORT
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM
BERMUDA TO SE FL THU...AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SE BEGINNING THU NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW NW OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE FRI IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER BY
NEARLY 24 HOURS ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT OVER THE NW WATERS SUN. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL OVER NW WATERS AND THEN RECEIVE A SECONDARY NW SURGE LATE
MON...OR THIS SURGE MAY BE THE ACTUAL FRONT. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR DAY 4 AND 5 AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...A FRONTAL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA
IS BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IN THE AREA...RESULTING
IN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS. EXPECT E WINDS OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE
INCREASING CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. EVIDENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
THROUGH BARBADOS ATTM WITH SOME DUST AND A FEW SHOWERS.
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.
Taz.....
What are you doing?
am going to bed LOL
Satellite GIS (new this week!):
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/maps/robert/

Click the checkboxes at the bottom of the screen to add layers. Some controls are disabled. Pretty self explanatory. GIS page still very much in developement.

GOES-12 Atmospheric animations:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/

Choose region, channel. More channels, regions coming.

Feedback? Links subject to change. Both are still officially unofficial and may be removed at any time.
"No evidence supporting frequency and/or intensity in the Indian Ocean" contributable to GW
I suppose these maps are wrong then?

STL, that is what Dr. Masters said. Dr. Emanuel's potential intensity product is useful and interesting, but has what to do with GW and detectible historical trends?
Speaking of the GOM,

There is a area of disturbed weather off north west Florida that the models really didn't pick up. Also the pressure in the western Gulf seems a little low.

The 850 vort is also a little bit unusual down in campeche. - in that it seems somewhat detached from the frontal system.
What ever it should move off Mexico and into the BOC tomorrow.

Perhaps we will get rain out of it.
Wind shear ahead of this front is far too high for anything to form, but the shear is forecast to drop once this front moves south. Maybe this detached 'low' in the BOC will hitch a ride back to the East then. We def. do need rain here in central Fl.
The GFS is predicting an interesting high pressure setup for the Atlantic later this month. From run to run the center of the high changes a bit but the extent is generally the same: some sort of merger of the B/A high with the highest central pressure being 1025 mb. Does this have anything to do with the current stage of the NAO?

I just heard on the TV this morning (5:30am CDT) that the expected death toll is 100,000. This make this disaster as bad as when the Christmas tsunami struck. I have read some comparisons to Katrina, but from what I'm hearing on TV, this is much worse and expected to get even more worse if that's possible.
The NHC this morning dropped our "first" tropical wave at 60W.
Imagine Katrina in an area with NO building codes, no Red Cross or even FEMA. They have somewhat effective leadership but its actively blocking assistance. That is just sad.
You can see from the inundation photos that their water resources are contaminated.
Cool YouTube clip by Dr. Masters on the Typhoon and Mangroves.
See PATRAP comment number 21 on climate change blogs.
I'm "permanently pre-evacuated". It is exactly a 30 mile drive (bike or Corolla) to the beach, and a two mile drive to the boat ramp on the St. Johns River. I am at 90' on the first good hill as you come inland from the coast. From here East, it is 0-20'. The river is <8' ASL. CBS structure walls poured solid. ELK dim shingles, shutters :), but gables :(. I'll obviously be here for my job, but Cat-4 or 5, family is still leaving. Mr. Miyagi: Best defense, don't be there.
Morning all :~)

Hog, I think that statement is somewhat accurate, but I also thought that the clockwise flow of air around the high does help to steer them as well?
MNTornado, even at a death toll of 100,000 Cyclone Nargis does not come close to the death toll of the 2004 tsunami. The tsunami officially killed around 230- 250,000 people, but another 200,000 or so are officially listed as "missing." The sad fact is that news organizations today are astonishingly lax in keeping up with records. I emailed one of the national news agencies after it listed the evacuation for the recent San Diego fires as being the largest in U.S. history, when in fact the Texas evacuation for Hurricane Rita was bigger by a factor of multiples.
783. IKE
There's a new blog..
Good morning to everyone!

Some people have mentioned that the GFS models have indicated a Gulf of Mexico event. I do not see anything on the models indicating this, unless you guys are watching a different model. From my analysis of the GFS model, the model picks up on some moisture influx over the Gulf Coast region as troughs come swinging across the United States creating some strong showers and storms. It does not indicate any subtropical/tropical activity. But, it would not surprise me, in the very least, if something were to develop in the GOM later this month.

TerraNova brings up a very interesting observation, that I too have noted, in the GFS model. It does indeed appear that the Azores and Bermuda highs will merge during the month and sprawling across the Atlantic. This would tend to prevent storms from curving out into the North Atlantic Ocean since it usually swings troughs well to the north and around the periphery of the high pressure ridge. If this does hold true, it will indeed be a season where Florida (and the entire East Coast for that matter) will have to remain on their toes when storms do develop out in the Central Atlantic.

I will be updating my website sometime either today or tomorrow on the current conditions presenting themselves in the Tropical Atlantic along with - FINALLY - my 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season preview. I apologize for the delay in the release, but I have been rather busy and in not the greatest health.

I will be on pretty much all morning since I have no work today and my college classes have come to an end.