WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Cyclone Megh Forms in Indian Ocean; Balmy Fall Weather over Eastern U.S.

By: Bob Henson 8:34 PM GMT on November 05, 2015

In what seems like an instant-reply development just days after the historic trek of Cyclone Chapala, Cyclonic Storm Megh has formed over the central Arabian Sea, again heading in the general direction of Yemen and Somalia. As of 15Z (10:00 am EDT) Thursday, the India Meteorological Department placed Cyclone Megh near 13.9°N, 63.7°E, or about 1080 km east-southeast of Salalah, Oman. Top 1-minute sustained winds from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are at minimal tropical-storm strength, 40 mph. Large bands of convection are wrapping into Megh’s gradually organizing center. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere surrounding Megh appears to be at least as much as during Chapala’s formative stage, as seen in this NOAA/NESDIS loop of precipitable water (the amount of water vapor over a given point).


Figure 1. VIIRS image of Megh in its formative stages over the Arabian Sea on November 4, 2015. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Cyclone Megh, with icons showing forecast track for the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Megh is moving just south of due west around the base of an broad upper-level high that should put the cyclone on a steady west-southwest track for the next several days. Vertical wind shear is low (10 knots or less), and sea-surface temperatures are at record levels across the North Arabian Sea, although Megh could encounter some cooler patches of water upwelled by the passage of Chapala. The 15Z forecast from JTWC brings Megh close to hurricane strength as it passes just south of Socotra, the remote Yemeni island slammed by Chapala’s south side. JTWC’s forecast track then nicks the north end of Somalia and brings Megh into the Yemen coast as a minimal tropical storm, while the IMD forecast track keeps Megh a bit further north. The 12Z HWRF model paints a true deja-vu scenario, with Megh passing just north of Socotra as a Category 3 storm, then making landfall on the central Yemen coast as a strong tropical storm. Given the unusually favorable conditions, I would not be surprised to see Megh reach at least Category 1 or 2 strength, assuming it does not pass directly over Chapala's track.

Cyclone Chapala left at least 8 fatalities and more than 200 injuries and destroyed dozens of structures in Yemen, including Socotra. About 3000 families were displaced, according to a recent AFP report. Humanitarian aid, including food and medical supplies, has been flowing from Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and the World Health Organization to Yemen, where the ongoing civil war has complicated relief efforts.

Aside from Chapala, only two other tropical cyclones are known to have made landfall in Yemen in the last 125 years: a destructive tropical depression in 2008, which caused an estimated 200 deaths, and a tropical storm-strength cyclone in 1960. The impact of the 2008 cyclone was magnified by heavy rains that had fallen just days earlier from the remnants of another tropical cyclone. Likewise, if Megh did make landfall on a track like Chapala’s, the potential for flooding this time could be even worse. NASA satellite analyses indicate that Chapala’s rains were considerably less than models had predicted on the Yemen mainland, but still on the order of 8-16”, with perhaps as much as 24” on Socatra.


Figure 3. Evacuees walk with their belongings in the area around Sinujiif, Somalia, on November 14, 2013, after a ferocious storm and days of heavy floods associated with a tropical depression that led to more than 100 deaths in the country’s northeastern Puntland region. Image credit: Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP/Getty Images.

Somalia has had more experience with tropical cyclones than Yemen in recent years. The deadliest was a tropical cyclone (making landfall at tropical storm strength, according to JTWC) that moved onto the east-central Somali coast on November 22, 2013. The cyclone triggered rains that took at least 162 lives, many of them children and elderly residents who died of exposure. This storm (TD ARB01) struck just days after Typhoon Haiyan, so it gained relatively little media attention. As Jeff Masters noted at the time, several other tropical cyclones have hit Somalia in modern records: Murjan (October 2012), Agni (December 2004), ARB01 (November 1994), ARB04 (December 1992), Tropical Cyclone 4B (December 1984), and TS 1 (May 1984).

All of the above were late-season storms except for 1984’s TS 1, which made landfall on the north coast of Somalia after becoming the only North Indian cyclone on record to cross the entire Gulf of Aden.


Figure 4. Tracks of all tropical cyclones that have made landfall in Somalia since the Joint Typhoon Warning Center began keeping records of storm intensity for this region in 1972. See text at left for more on each storm. Image credit: Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University.

Caribbean disturbance to send moisture into Gulf of Mexico
For the next five-day period, the National Hurricane Center puts 20% odds on development of a tropical wave now generating extensive showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate wind shear (10-20 knots) and interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will limit any development for the next day or two. Another brief window will open as the system moves into the Bay of Campeche, where weaker wind shear prevails.

Extreme warmth for early November in Michigan, Florida
Much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States was bathed in unusual autumn mildness at midday Thursday, with temperatures in the 70s and 80s from Texas to Michigan and east to New Hampshire. All-time highs for November were notched on Wednesday at several far-flung locations, including Flint, MI (80°F) and Tampa, FL (92°F). The low since midnight at Traverse City, MI, was a summerlike 62°F; if that reading holds till midnight Thursday night, it’ll be the lakeside city’s warmest November minimum on record. Most of Florida has seen a solid week of record- or near-record heat. In Tallahassee, the first four days of November were a full 4°F warmer than any other four-day November stretch in the city's weather history. My vote for the most impressive spot is Key West, where the last time the temperature dipped below 80°F was nearly a week ago--on Friday, October 30. Each night since Halloween has set a record-warm minimum for the date of either 80°F or 81°F. The 81°F readings on Sunday and Monday are the warmest November daily minima ever observed in Key West, where recordkeeping began in 1872. We can expect more daily and monthly records to tumble over the next couple of days before the mild weather over most of the eastern U.S. is pushed offshore by a seasonably strong cold front, accompanied in many areas by strong thunderstorms. A tornado watch was in effect Thursday afternoon over eastern Oklahoma and north Texas, and flash flooding is again a threat late Thursday into Friday from northeast into southern TX.

The associated upper-level storm has brought welcome snowfall across much of the mountainous West, including the recently snow-starved Sierra Nevada. Even Flagstaff, AZ, got in on the act, with almost a foot of snow piling up there. Strong westerly flow at upper levels will bring another powerful storm into the West early next week, with more heavy rains possible later next week in the beleaguered south-central states.


Figure 5. General view of a flooded area in the city of Villahermosa in Mexico’s Tabasco state on November 1, 2007. More than 1 million people were affected by the flooding across Tabasco and Chiapas. Image credit: Gilberto Villasana/AFP/Getty Images.

Looking back at the great November 2007 flood in southern Mexico
Norman Avila, a software engineer based in Guatemala City and a longtime Weather Underground member, is wrapping up a three-week stint at WU headquarters in San Francisco as part of a fellowship sponsored by the International Center for Journalists. The ICFJ brings journalists, technologists and digital entrepreneurs from Latin America to the United States to train and embed in U.S. digital organizations. While on site, Norman has been meeting with various WU staff, gaining insights that he hopes to apply to his own Spanish-language website, ClimaYa.com, which is focused on natural disasters in Central America. Norman has also found time to produce his first blog post for WU, which analyzes the catastrophic flood that struck Mexico's Tabasco state in the fall of 2007. As much as 80% of Tabasco was estimated to be under water at the height of the flood, which affected more than a million people. Thanks for contributing to WU, Norman!

Bob Henson


Hurricane Extreme Weather Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!
Thanks Bob and Jeff!
Tornado watch till 8pm this evening........................................... ....
Thanks, Bob! Very good round-up and outlook, including of a country like Somalia which rarely gets closer attention.

Repost from the end of the last blog, if I may:



NASA Earth Observatory: Chapala Drenches the Desert
The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured false-color images of flooded regions of Yemen following the landfall of Cyclone Chapala. The top image was acquired on October 19, 2015; the second image was acquired on November 4. Both use a combination of visible light and infrared (Landsat bands 3,5,and 7, or green, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared) that makes it easier to see floodwater on the landscape.
To see the "before" image and more, please follow link above.

Or visit CWG: Interactive slider: Before and after Cyclone Chapala's devastating rains in Yemen
Number of severe warned storms with this line has really gone up the last hour, luckily it's pretty linear and discreet cells are only in NE Texas for the time being.
Incoming

Oh look, it's another hot steamy November day in Tallahassee where near record to all time record warmth at times has been the norm along with high dew points for pushing on two weeks now.

Also, Tampa in in the 90's again. This non-sense is just too weird.
This has to be a first, in modern times, when the Yemen region gets two tropical systems in a single season, let alone in a single decade.

Is this another sign of the times?
Exxon Mobil under investigation in NY over climate change

Tampa hit 90 degrees today, breaking another daily record by 2 degrees.
Thank you Bob and Jeff for the mention. I will try to keep blogging here and enhance my writing skills.

Megh. Source.
Somehow I feel like captured in a time warp ;-) So better say good night for today ...
Quoting 9. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 90 degrees today, breaking another daily record by 2 degrees.


Rain this weekend Matt should help temper this heat some. Could be interesting rain wise depending on how this feature near the Yucatan evolves over the next 2 days. Could be a 3 day period of some pretty decent rains across FL.
Quoting 9. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 90 degrees today, breaking another daily record by 2 degrees.


It's a weird fact that Tampa international Airport has never recorded a 100 degree reading, even though other Tamp obs have, it's also the only place in Central Florida I'm aware of that hasn't recorded a 100 or higher temp. Even St. Petersburg and Clearwater, which have obs right near the beach have done so despite it's rarity.

So yeah, Tampa International's new November record high of 92 yesterday was just 7 degrees cooler than it's all time record high of 99.
Lots of tropical air across the Eastern US.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
23:30 PM IST November 5 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Megh over east central Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards at a speed of 12 km/h in past six hours and now lays centered near 13.9N 63.4E, about 1150 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 1050 km east southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman.

It would move west southwestwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move west southwestwards towards Gulf of Aden.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 62.0E to 66.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -74C, the cloud shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.5N61.7E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.1N 59.8E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 12.6N 56.4E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 12.4N 52.8E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===============
The associated convection has increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization and convective banding. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea adjacent to Oman and Yemen coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center and to the west. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward and westward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 hpa level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system during next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about west southwestward movement. The forecast is mainly based on multimodel ensemble guidance.
safe to say the dry period for e cen fl. should be over soon . seems to be building convection west central atlantic mojo and it seems to be moving in the general direction of Fl. we could use a few inches.
Thanks Mr. Henson; stepped out in the parking lot at work (North Florida) an hour ago to get something from the car and it was in the 80's and humid. Just had a brief sun-shower (I am in a small town West of Tallahassee today) and now there is a little "steam" rising from parts of the asphalt lot exposed to the sun. It feels like August out there............
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of tropical air across the Eastern US.



Those dewpoints look more like mid - late spring instead of mid-fall. WOW unbelieveable
Quoting 6. RitaEvac:

Incoming



Great Satellite Picture Rita!! Vorticity really spinning. We have to get this down to the surface. A surface warm core Low has most of the Lowest Pressure near the surface as Higher Pressures occur as u go up in height. We have to get that going North and East
Quoting 19. WeatherConvoy:


Those dewpoints look more like mid - late spring instead of mid-fall. WOW unbelieveable


Actually mid to late spring has about the same dewpoints as mid to late fall. Dewpoint lags temperature
here in the mid atlantic in the seasonal cycle.

This stretch of warmth is notable more for duration than intensity.. not unusual for a day in November to be this warm.. not at all, but the number together is piling up.

Tomorrow we get our hot day. I'll try to get the house as cool as possible tonight

Stretch to beat is first ten days of Nov 1975. We won't come close to that here in DC.
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:



Rain this weekend Matt should help temper this heat some. Could be interesting rain wise depending on how this feature near the Yucatan evolves over the next 2 days. Could be a 3 day period of some pretty decent rains across FL.

Scott if this Low Pressure Vorticity can get down to the surface its has plenty of warm SSTs for fuel. If it can tap into that the Latent heat of condensation energy will be impressive. A purely tropical system has no fronts or cold or warm air advections associated with it. I hope becomes a hybrid so it can give us wild weather and at the same time advect some cooler air into FLORIDA
Bob - on the very first sentence - I believe it should be "instant-replay".
I'm in Albany and it was over 70 today, which is ridiculous.
Hey, Bob. You forgot to say, "I saw it first" :)

Blog Article Correction

According to this site, the daily minimum temperature at Key West has been warmer than 81 F many times, including a minimum temperature of 87 F on July 26, 2007.

Link

According to this site, the 81 F is a record warmest daily minimum temperature during any November in Key West.

Link
Rainfall projections for next week through Texas to Florida are likely to go much higher than currently shown. This Caribbean system after moving in the BOC should move north and Texas through the Gulf Coast are the likely receivers of this to be hybrid system. Worried this could be another epic rain producer. Maybe, just maybe this will become a weak tropical depression before being absorbed by the incoming cold front and becoming some hybrid subtropical rain monster.
Thanks Bob ....

meanwhile still hotter than a pepper sprout here in the Keys. Please send us a cold front - it's overdue

From the Key West NWS Discussion

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HAS BEEN
EITHER SET OR TIED DURING THE LAST 5 DAYS. AND THIS STRETCH IS LIKELY
TO GET EXTENDED TO 6 DAYS...AS THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING IN
KEY WEST DID NOT GO BELOW 81 DEGREES. THIS IS A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THE RECORD OF 80...SET BACK IN THE YEAR 2002. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Convection pop in Iowa, looks like this system is going to sync up from Texas all the way to Wisconsin. May see this marginally intensify across the whole line though ten o'clock tonight.
Quoting 27. DCSwithunderscores:

According to this site, the daily minimum temperature at Key West has been warmer than 81 F many times, including a minimum temperature of 87 F on July 26, 2007.

Link

According to this site, the 81 F is a record warmest daily minimum temperature during any November in Key West.

Link


Most record high summer day mins in the DC area are in the upper 70s or low 80s

DC metro did not have a single 24 hour period that failed to go below 80F from 1964 when I first moved here to 1978. In 1978 there was one (and I had a nightime laboring job in it!!) Since then there have been many.
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of tropical air across the Eastern US.


its 40 and 50's considered high dewpoints? i'm asking because idk and i have felt that dewpoints in the 40 and 50's feels really nice down here in southern florida
Thanks for the updates Bob.... #32, humidity is 29% here, North of Riverside, CA..
In the first paragraph he spelt Oman as Omah.
We'll be touching the low 80's tomorrow so I'll definitely need the fan.Here is a link to my new blog just in case

Link
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 440 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 437 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 435 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 433 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 417 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 414 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
Quoting 6. RitaEvac:

Incoming




beautiful spin
Quoting 16. Bucsboltsfan:




I guess Bay News 9 is expecting a full day with no sun light on Tuesday, bold move... lol
Why isn't the NHC showing any love for the system near Puerto Rico?
Really cold for November here South Brazil.
Error - Wait i'll fix the post.
Quoting 41. PensacolaDoug:

Why isn't the NHC showing any love for the system near Puerto Rico?


did you check the out look ?


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow
development is possible during the couple of days. After that time,
the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which would make
additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
I don't know why but it's not working.
i'll pulish later. : /
Intensity forecast has been udjusted upwards by the JTWC, calling for 80 knots prior to landfall on the Island of Socotra.

lol, maybe an Eclipse!
Quoting 40. Jedkins01:



I guess Bay News 9 is expecting a full day with no sun light on Tuesday, bold move... lol

Quoting 46. pablosyn:

I don't know why but it's not working.
Your original post was good.. I'm reposting it for you.  Dam breaks can be devastating..

Dam breaks down and may have killed more than 10 people in Southeastern Brazil:







Video of the water coming in Bento Rodrigues district because of the break of dam.

This occured today around 04:30 PM (Brasilia Time) in Mariana - Minas Gerais state.
pablosyn~ It was actually your 2nd post that was good:)

The car on top of the walls of the one house that has no roof...


Megh..

Evening all. Not posting much tonight, but watching with interest what becomes of Megh. If this scenario of a second storm passing near Socotra pans out, that would be pretty impressive and potentially disastrous.....

Quoting 37. Patrap:


Holy crap! Haven't been on for a while since I got banned for saying something negative about Yemen. Bad puppy..... This looks potentially impressive for November. Where will this go? 20% by nhc but it's about to see better shear soon
Quoting 10. neavilag:

Thank you Bob and Jeff for the mention. I will try to keep blogging here and enhance my writing skills.
Cool ... I thought this might be you they were talking about ........ bienvenido!

Quoting 24. Greg01:

Bob - on the very first sentence - I believe it should be "instant-replay".
Can be done without the hyphen ....
Quoting 41. PensacolaDoug:

Why isn't the NHC showing any love for the system near Puerto Rico?


The two got in a fight over last night's dinner date, heard it didn't end well...
The Miami NWS Discussion...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 EXCEPT UPPER 80S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. MORE ON THIS IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE AREA AND BRING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT LIKELY RANGE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -10C RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE FORMING
NORTH OF PURTO RICO THIS WEEKEND AND MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN NON-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 41. PensacolaDoug:

Why isn't the NHC showing any love for the system near Puerto Rico?

It's not expected to develop for atleast five days.. gets no love (0%) on the two day but gets 30% chance on 5 day... The Caribbean area of interest gets nothing better than 20% at the moment for 2 or 5 day.

Quoting 52. Skyepony:

pablosyn~ It was actually your 2nd post that was good:)

The car on top of the walls of the one house that has no roof...


Megh..




Thank you! An error has occurred here and I had to redo the post.
Quoting 49. ILwthrfan:

Intensity forecast has been udjusted upwards by the JTWC, calling for 80 knots prior to landfall on the Island of Socotra.




Could be the 2nd "hurricane impact" in one week (Chapala in November 1st - Megh in November 7th) and the 2nd since 1922, really really impressive.
Quoting 6. RitaEvac:

Incoming



Nice spin.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
weekend. Some slow development is possible during the couple of
days. After that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold
front, which would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A large area of cloudiness and showers near the Leeward Islands
extending eastward for several hundred miles is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for development over
the next couple of days, heavy rain is possible in the Leeward
Islands while the system moves through the area. By late in the
weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto
Rico, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable, and some development of the disturbance is possible early
next week while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percen
t
Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

We'll be touching the low 80's tomorrow so I'll definitely need the fan.Here is a link to my new blog just in case

Link
Checked out your blog. SOLID.
I left comments ..... :o)
Quoting 41. PensacolaDoug:

Why isn't the NHC showing any love for the system near Puerto Rico?
Thought they had it up to 20% by the weekend .... seems they are expecting it to develop N of PR ....
NASA's GEOS-5 model changed a bit on the 12Z run, has the one by Central America getting to the Gulf of Mexico but gets sheered dead by the trough which in turn goes more horizontal over the southeast instead of whisking away the other one out to sea, which is moving toward FL the last several frames.

Mischievous Megh moves
many miles meandering--
malice maneuver!
Quoting 67. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 model changed a bit on the 12Z run, has the one by Central America getting to the Gulf of Mexico but gets sheered dead by the trough which in turn goes more horizontal over the southeast instead of whisking away the other one out to sea, which is moving toward FL the last several frames.





could we see other JQ setup? that low the NHC has in the out look is really all most in the same spot
Dvipa Sukhadhara
Quoting 64. Tazmanian:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
weekend. Some slow development is possible during the couple of
days. After that time, the low is expected to encounter a cold
front, which would make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A large area of cloudiness and showers near the Leeward Islands
extending eastward for several hundred miles is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for development over
the next couple of days, heavy rain is possible in the Leeward
Islands while the system moves through the area. By late in the
weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto
Rico, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable, and some development of the disturbance is possible early
next week while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Hey Taz. Given recent experiences in the SE Bahamas with Joaquin, I'm not surprised this was mentioned on the evening news locally. Even if this is never more than an invest, if it passes over that area it'll retard the progress of rebuilding efforts.
Someone's gettin wet.....

Quoting 69. Tazmanian:




could we see other JQ setup? that low the NHC has in the out look is really all most in the same spot
Looks more like an August / September track ..... hope this doesn't play out.
Quoting 69. Tazmanian:




could we see other JQ setup? that low the NHC has in the out look is really all most in the same spot

It is similiar except the one by Central America looks like it has a better chance to block a trough than some weak low that had some looking for a possible gulf storm before JQ. ECMWF still has the potential Bahama storm going out to sea. Kills the Central America one in the Gulf of Mexico now instead of taking it to FL panhandle.

Good chance of some blob watching..
Quoting 72. hydrus:

Someone's gettin wet.....


Looks like another good wetting for the Caymans....
Quoting 74. Skyepony:


It is similiar except the one by Central America looks like it has a better chance to block a trough than some weak low that had some looking for a possible gulf storm before JQ. ECMWF still has the potential Bahama storm going out to sea. Kills the Central America one in the Gulf of Mexico now instead of taking it to FL panhandle.

Good chance of some blob watching..



ok thanks


Quoting 73. BahaHurican:

Looks more like an August / September track ..... hope this doesn't play out.



dont worry we are getting vary late in the season now for so the high wind shear will keep this low in check
- The 2015 Pacific Hurricane Center:

Is 2 week away from today, but it's really interesting to see this for November. Could be Rick and Sandra, if this happens we'll have 26 named storms or 1 name away from the historical record of 1992. Oh don't forget, could be the 30th tropical cyclone of the season, the same number of 1992 and if 2 storms be named, will be the busiest November on record with 2006 (Rosa and Sergio):



The MJO will back.



Quoting 75. BahaHurican:

Looks like another good wetting for the Caymans....


Uhm,...that's starting to look kinda creepy.
I know it's really "nothing much" right now, but still....something about it.
Quoting 62. 882MB:






Heard a radio forecast today that was talking about the Texas frontal system possibly stalling near the Houston area. If so, that could allow a slower interaction with that Low moving NW out of the Caribbean.
Quoting 55. Sandcat:

Holy crap! Haven't been on for a while since I got banned for saying something negative about Yemen. Bad puppy..... This looks potentially impressive for November. Where will this go? 20% by nhc but it's about to see better shear soon


Oh, it looks really bad.
It might be global warming, b'cause I don't think Yemen caused it. (lol)
-- Nah, just kiddn'. -- Welcome back, now behave. Haha.
This is looking more like a La Nina November than an El Nino November for the Atlantic...two tropical disturbances. Hopefully we get another storm before the season is over.
Maybe we'll get Kate and Larry soon...
Tigerosee, I wonder if Chapala and Megh considered the very warm waters of the Gulf of Aden the 'Aisle of Bliss'.
If we're going to talk about the Bible and God then I'm putting up the writing on the wall:

Quoting 68. BaltimoreBrian:

Mischievous Megh moves
many miles meandering--
malice maneuver!

Now and forever
All Asian cyclones expect
Smart haiku from you.
Just did my latest blog update on the two areas of interest in the Atlantic tropics...interesting for November but I'm not yet convinced that either will develop.
Quoting 80. WalkingInTheSun:



Oh, it looks really bad.
It might be global warming, b'cause I don't think Yemen caused it. (lol)
-- Nah, just kiddn'. -- Welcome back, now behave. Haha.


All my posts are censured here now. The last deletion stated was that my posts were monomania.

This blog was just sold to IMB. My view is IBM was fleeced. Why? Because the censuring editor is projecting. This site is a warmer site that puts up pictures of current storms and complains about global warming. The problem is the current forecasting has no forecast skill to speak of, the site just reports weather. Certainly just reports climate as well. For instance warming theory would project melting in Antarctica, and that is not the case, so that's a busted forecast. The site may REPORT ice growing in eastern Antarctica, but any news site can report the same thing. The site is doomed because it won't allow ideas which increase forecast skill.

Its a problem with the models, too, which have become highly politicized. That's why the European kicked American butt with Jo. Sad but so. Goodbye wunderground, I give you a year or two at best.



30% chance of the disturbance that's near to the leeward islands of developing in the next 5 days.
Quoting 87. MichaelDoran:



All my posts are censured here now. The last deletion stated was that my posts were monomania.

This blog was just sold to IMB. My view is IBM was fleeced. Why? Because the censuring editor is projecting. This site is a warmer site that puts up pictures of current storms and complains about global warming. The problem is the current forecasting has no forecast skill to speak of, the site just reports weather. Certainly just reports climate as well. For instance warming theory would project melting in Antarctica, and that is not the case, so that's a busted forecast. The site may REPORT ice growing in eastern Antarctica, but any news site can report the same thing. The site is doomed because it won't allow ideas which increase forecast skill.

Its a problem with the models, too, which have become highly politicized. That's why the European kicked American butt with Jo. Sad but so. Goodbye wunderground, I give you a year or two at best.






The Antarctica is growing ice. Ahhhhh, but is it the same quality? Does this ice have much depth or density?? Is it seasonal or "permanent" ice??? the issue I have with your diatribes is the complete lack of respect for the science and the profession. When you grow up, you'll see that a blog like this invites differing views on a variety of subjects. You attitude and your comments lead me to view your comments as a one pony show. You want to add something constructive to the conversation, by all means step up. In the meantime, when many readers are blocking you it may be time to wake up and smell the coffee.
Quoting 87. MichaelDoran:



All my posts are censured here now. The last deletion stated was that my posts were monomania.

This blog was just sold to IMB. My view is IBM was fleeced. Why? Because the censuring editor is projecting. This site is a warmer site that puts up pictures of current storms and complains about global warming. The problem is the current forecasting has no forecast skill to speak of, the site just reports weather. Certainly just reports climate as well. For instance warming theory would project melting in Antarctica, and that is not the case, so that's a busted forecast. The site may REPORT ice growing in eastern Antarctica, but any news site can report the same thing. The site is doomed because it won't allow ideas which increase forecast skill.

Its a problem with the models, too, which have become highly politicized. That's why the European kicked American butt with Jo. Sad but so. Goodbye wunderground, I give you a year or two at best.






Funny...& sad.
Your post was censured before I looked at it, and I didn't "ignore" you.
Btw, this is a very democratic nation with free speech, so how dare you critique global warming, or cooling or whatever it is now just because the ice thickens down at the South Pole when it's supposed to be melting and instilling fear and panic in everyone enough to destroy the U.S. economy and nobody else's.

Oh well, maybe I can become a land speculator and help drive up the price of Canadian real estate for the anticipated warming trend. You just have to understand that debate is not allowed if you disagree, as we are tolerant people here. We to-lery rant at people sometimes, but then we get over it. Btw, we are working at our tolerance factor, as long as you can mostly agree. :)
Looks like the dry air is putting the damper on the wet stuff in Texas, somewhat.
Not as bad as was expected...so far.
Some chance of severe storms, though, so have to wait and see. Maybe more huff & puff than rain as the front pushes through.
Quoting 90. MrNatural:



The Antarctica is growing ice. Ahhhhh, but is it the same quality? Does this ice have much depth or density?? Is it seasonal or "permanent" ice???


No need to split hairs about western Antarctica, or the MSU data which shows warming in the northern hemisphere but cooling in the south. My comment merely was the south magnetic pole is where the ice is growing, and western Antarctica is where the ice is melting and the pole itself is moving away from the melting and when talking about Co2 as an electrical forcing on clouds it will show up in the time and place where electrical currents are generated by lightning, and less in places with less current. And this has been true and has forecast skill. When someone asks me if 1 plus 1 equals 2 and I keep saying 2 over and over again is that monomania? Or is it just being right?
Quoting 86. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my latest blog update on the two areas of interest in the Atlantic tropics...interesting for November but I'm not yet convinced that either will develop.



Thanks for the blog. Left a comment 4U. Have fun.
Quoting 92. WalkingInTheSun:

Looks like the dry air is putting the damper on the wet stuff in Texas, somewhat.
Not as bad as was expected...so far.
Some chance of severe storms, though, so have to wait and see. Maybe more huff & puff than rain as the front pushes through.


Huff and Puff? You talking about gusty winds?
Quoting 77. pablosyn:

- The 2015 Pacific Hurricane Center:

Is 2 week away from today, but it's really interesting to see this for November. Could be Rick and Sandra, if this happens we'll have 26 named storms or 1 name away from the historical record of 1992. Oh don't forget, could be the 30th tropical cyclone of the season, the same number of 1992 and if 2 storms be named, will be the busiest November on record with 2006 (Rosa and Sergio):



The MJO will back.






Shows a storm hitting the patricia area,but its long ways out.
Quoting 82. HurricaneFan:

This is looking more like a La Nina November than an El Nino November for the Atlantic...two tropical disturbances. Hopefully we get another storm before the season is over.
Maybe we'll get Kate and Larry soon...


Perish the thought!
So WU doomed to failure for not allowing for better forecasting "ideas" from the fringe of never verified, never submitted, never given to the climate science community for all the glaringly obvious reasons. WU has been around long before the likes of Mr. Doran came and will be growing and thriving long after he's gone.
Quoting 95. GeoffreyWPB:

>



Quoting 99. BaltimoreBrian:

West Antarctic coastal snow accumulation rose 30 percent during 20th century


Allow my 2 cents. Storms have capacitive couplings that electrically enhance the storms organization. But as storms get close to magnetic poles they have to compete with the closing isobars of the earth EMF. Storms bring warm air south, along with accumulations, so its a little more complex than just warming or snowfall. Warm moist air carries a lot of latent heat. To get the ice to increase you don't want warm moist air.
Quoting 93. MichaelDoran:



No need to split hairs about western Antarctica, or the MSU data which shows warming in the northern hemisphere but cooling in the south. My comment merely was the south magnetic pole is where the ice is growing, and western Antarctica is where the ice is melting and the pole itself is moving away from the melting and when talking about Co2 as an electrical forcing on clouds it will show up in the time and place where electrical currents are generated by lightning, and less in places with less current. And this has been true and has forecast skill. When someone asks me if 1 plus 1 equals 2 and I keep saying 2 over and over again is that monomania? Or is it just being right?

The results of the Antarctic ice thickness review are controversial. But I'm sure you already knew that. Meteorology is much more complicated than 1+1=2. But then again I think you already know that. Study of weather and climate is one of the most complex there is. But then you already knew that. With such simple folk on this website, what keeps you coming back? In the meantime, get your facts straight and start diversifying your comments.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
5:30 AM IST November 6 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Megh over west central Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards at a speed of 16 km/h in past six hours and now lays centered near 13.7N 62.5E, about 1250 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 980km east southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman.

It would move west southwestwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move west southwestwards towards Gulf of Aden.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 61.0E to 65.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -72C, the cloud shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.3N 60.8E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 12.9N 58.8E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 12.4N 55.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 12.4N 52.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===============
The associated convection remained almost same in past 12 hours with convective banding. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center and to the west. The low level relative vorticity and convergence remained same during past 12 hours. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system during next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about west southwestward movement. The forecast is mainly based on multimodel ensemble guidance.
96B...

India Meteorological Department
5:30 AM IST November 6 2015
============================

Bay Of Bengal and Andaman Sea

Broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lie over southern Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
24 hours: NIL
24-48 hours: LOW
48-72 hours: MODERATE
I wonder why the India Meteorological Department forecasts Megh weakening after 24 hours.
Quoting 99. BaltimoreBrian:

West Antarctic coastal snow accumulation rose 30 percent during 20th century


Excerpt from the link above:

The 20th century increases look unusual," said Elizabeth Thomas, a paleoclimatologist with the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, United Kingdom, and lead author of the new study.

Thomas attributes the higher annual snow accumulation over the last 30 years in part to an intensification of a regional low pressure system and more storms in the region. The study's authors said these storms could increase with climate change, possibly leading to further increases in snow accumulation.

Snow accumulation builds up the ice sheet, but the extra flakes have not acted as a life raft for West Antarctica's ice sheet, which previous research has found is rapidly thinning as the climate warms, Thomas said.

The size of the ice sheet depends on how much new snow accumulates and how much of the existing ice melts, she said. Knowledge about how much new snow is laid down in West Antarctica each year could help scientists more accurately predict how the region's coastal ice sheet could be affected by climate change and its contribution to sea level rise, Thomas said.


"In this region, the same [storms] that have driven increased snowfall inland have brought warmer ocean currents into contact with West Antarctic's ice shelves, resulting in rapid thinning," said Thomas. "Thus the increased snowfall we report here has not led to thickening of the ice sheet, but is in fact another symptom of the changes that are driving contemporary ice sheet loss."


Looks like Dr. Thomas is saying that the ice is losing mass faster than the snow is replenishing it.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

AMOC detected slowing by NASA satellites and may be attributable, along with the cold pool, to the four inch sea rise in a shockingly short time period on the East Coast was a great read Brian, thanks. That cold pool of record has ties to all this and things seem to be happening very rapidly now. Very troubling. That pool of record low SST's shows huge amounts of melt have to be pouring into the Atlantic to offset record SST's everywhere else and to contribute to four inch sea level rise on the east coast. Deep melt should continue to drive this pool and untold amounts of fresh water will only be on the increase in coming years. This is what the tipping point looks like. And yet the world heads into the eye of the hurricane of it's own making. Time to turn around before it's too late.
Dang! If it was like this every first week in November, Ohio wouldn't be a bad place to live. :-) Almost every station in northern Ohio broke their daily record today, and Burke Lakefront Airport came within one degree of the November record of 78. These temperatures are between 20 and 25 degrees above average, so they would be impressive even if they weren't record breaking. I spent the day at the Air Force Museum in Dayton wandering around in shorts. There was more cloud cover in central Ohio with a few light showers, but the temperature was still in the low 70's. The Museum apparently has a boiler like the one at Keeper's apartment building The climate control system was switched over to the boiler, and the engineers were running all over trying to adjust the temperature and get the A/C units back online and balanced. Half the Museum was blazing hot, and the other half was ice cold. Fantastic collection of aircraft though. It's really an almost complete history of military aviation, starting with the first Wright Brothers model all the way up to an F-35. There's no admission charge at all. That's nice for a senior citizen like me trying to conserve his money, but that museum must cost an arm and a leg to run. They had a donation box, so I dropped in a 20. Any private museum would have cost a lot more.

Saw the two AOI's in the Caribbean. I think the chances for development aren't high for either one, although the one east of the Islands looks at least a bit more impressive. The one headed toward the Yucatan is almost all diurnal convection. Without seeing some persistent convection from the ULL, the chances of anything tropical are pretty dim. Neither one is a zero chance though, so it will give all the invest fans something to watch. Megh is something else again. The only real question is how big it will become. My completely amatuer guess is that it makes landfall in Somalia rather than Yemen. Given the size of the storm already, Megh will probably spread heavy rain throughout the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea area, so the actual point of landfall may not be so important, presuming it doesn't hit the same areas as the last storm.
Quoting 114. Grothar:

33 percent there is a chance season ends nov 30th
Quoting 115. sar2401:

Dang!


yeah I had to put system on WWSM
too warm outside getting a little humid last few hours or so
rains coming

sounds like a nice trip

restart tomorrow evening to set point
Quoting 113. DeepSeaRising:

AMOC detected slowing by NASA satellites and may be attributable, along with the cold pool, to the four inch sea rise in a shockingly short time period on the East Coast was a great read Brian, thanks. That cold pool of record has ties to all this and things seem to be happening very rapidly now. Very troubling. That pool of record low SST's shows huge amounts of melt have to be pouring into the Atlantic to offset record SST's everywhere else and to contribute to four inch sea level rise on the east coast. Deep melt should continue to drive this pool and untold amounts of fresh water will only be on the increase in coming years. This is what the tipping point looks like. And yet the world heads into the eye of the hurricane of it's own making. Time to turn around before it's too late.
The caveat is that we've only had Grace satellite data for a short time, and we don't really know how big the AMOC currents have been in the past, or at least with this kind of precision. From my reading of the story, there hasn't been a direct link between the cold surface pool and the rise in sea level on the East Coast. The blob is, after all, on the surface, and sea level rise can only come from moving huge amounts of seawater, and that's undoubtedly caused by the AMOC. The scientists were pretty cautious about drawing direct causes from what we know so far. That seems reasonable considering how new many of these measurements are.
Broke another heat record today here. I think it is 4 days in a row. 90.
Quoting 108. BaltimoreBrian:
NASA found a way to track ocean currents from space. What they saw is troubling For GatorWX
From the news article:
"Granted, the current study does not claim to have detected a long-term, downward trend in the strength of the AMOC. The point was more to prove that the technique works. And now that it does, the researchers say they are preparing to do more long-term analyses."
123. vis0
wow the BaltimoreBrian headlineLinks are to live for pg cmmnt#1645 THERE

Words like::  Solar, Wx modeling, the Sun erodes Mars..., Antimatter, Walker circulation (no not my uncle walking in circles), wildfires, aGW controversy, aGW, Thermonuclear Art (not the same as whats burnt on your
Retina for starring too long at Sun),  and much more, visit that page your brain will thank you.

Then come back here for weather related Conversations and observations.
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



yeah I had to put system on WWSM
too warm outside getting a little humid last few hours or so
rains coming

sounds like a nice trip

restart tomorrow evening to set point
It was noticeably humid in Ohio as well. The sky looked a lot more like what I'd expect to see in late spring than November. There's even a slight chance of severe storms late tomorrow, something one normally isn't concerned about in Ohio during the first week in November. The temperatures fall after the frontal passage to slightly below normal Sunday and Monday, but they start to warm up again by Wednesday. Not as warm as this week, but still in the mid 60's, about 10 degrees above average.
They were cautious Sar. But for a layman in the subject such as myself, knowing the record cold SST pool is from fresh melt waters at a likely record rate in recorded history and the tie to East Coast sea rise has to be connected. Only way I can see this currently is; this pool will cool and grow and the AMOC will weaken. Probably a long way from the tipping point of shutdown, but how this record cold SST pool ties into record SST's off the East Coast is of interest to me.
NHC calling for the AOI that's in the Eastern Caribbean to be in more conducive conditions when it gets north of Puerto Rico. Should see this percentage go up over the next two days and looking like one more named storm could be coming. Certainly a sweet spot in the BOC if this other AOI can cross over successfully. Convergence, over land, is lacking with this possible system, but vorticity is not. Very broad moisture shield, will be interesting to see how fast this can work to the surface once it reaches the BOC. Think percentage will go up on this one too. Looking more at how this energy gets pulled into the cold front and what that brings with it.
Nice convection fire over the center on the Yucatan. That should continue to grow and percentages looking to go up tomorrow, maybe to orange alert.
128. vis0

Quoting 81. WalkingInTheSun:



This sort of seems biblical.
I mean, consider back when the Israelites came out of Egypt.
The bible says (I think) that there was a strong East wind, right?
The waters divided in the Red Sea, and then they went back and washed over the Eqyptian army.
Could a hurricane have driven water out of the top end of the Red Sea and then back in as it passed?
Ah, maybe not, but seems interesting. I guess it simply had to be God.
my 2cents worth, pg4 cmmnt#185  there
129. vis0

Quoting 124. sar2401:

It was noticeably humid in Ohio as well. The sky looked a lot more like what I'd expect to see in late spring than November. There's even a slight chance of severe storms late tomorrow, something one normally isn't concerned about in Ohio during the first week in November. The temperatures fall after the frontal passage to slightly below normal Sunday and Monday, but they start to warm up again by Wednesday. Not as warm as this week, but still in the mid 60's, about 10 degrees above average.
Same here in NYC as far as humidity i had not to look at the humidity readout just notice that around early afternoon my underarms where "swishing", family visiting began to say "whew" a-lot 'cause of my armpits but it felt like someone turned on a big humidifier.

Have fun at air museum had friend (may goodness rest his soul) who'd donate K's to that show, he said it was one of the most fun event besides the Electronic show out west (~Vegas).
Quoting 125. DeepSeaRising:

They were cautious Sar. But for a layman in the subject such as myself, knowing the record cold SST pool is from fresh melt waters at a likely record rate in recorded history and the tie to East Coast sea rise has to be connected. Only way I can see this currently is; this pool will cool and grow and the AMOC will weaken. Probably a long way from the tipping point of shutdown, but how this record cold SST pool ties into record SST's off the East Coast is of interest to me.

From RealClimate, March 2015:

[...] we are not the first to have inferred from temperature data that the flow must have weakened. Evidence for this was already presented by Dima and Lohmann 2010 or Drijfhout et al. 2012, among others (for further references see the introduction of our paper).

What is new is that we have used proxy reconstructions of large-scale surface temperature (Mann et al, 2009) previously published by one of us (study co-author and RealClimate co-founder Mike Mann) that extend back to 900 AD (see “What we can learn from studying the last millennium (or so)”) to estimate the circulation (AMOC) intensity over the entire last 1100 years (Fig. 3). This shows that despite the substantial uncertainties in the proxy reconstruction, the weakness of the flow after 1975 is unique in more than a thousand years, with at least 99 per cent probability. This strongly suggests that the weak overturning is not due to natural variability but rather a result of global warming.


Fig. 3 Time series of the temperature difference between the subpolar North Atlantic and the entire northern hemisphere, which can be interpreted as an indicator of the strength of the Atlantic circulation.
131. vis0

Quoting 108. BaltimoreBrian:

NASA found a way to track ocean currents from space. What they saw is troubling For GatorWX
shh don't tell them its an ml-d vortex affect (turned ON 24/7 in 2009/10) added to the aGW effects shhhhhhhhh ... :- P or is it?
back to the blobations in the A T L basin.
Yes, it really has been a long, hot summer on the west coast of Florida. From NWS Tampa:



...and the forecast says that streak is likely to continue for at least the next week or so.
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Yes, it really has been a long, hot summer on the west coast of Florida. From NWS Tampa:



...and the forecast says that streak is likely to continue for at least the next week or so.
We had such a streak about 5 years back .... MOST uncomfortable when one cannot cool off in the evenings .... seems like this is increasingly likely to become the norm rather than an anomaly as the century progresses .... :o/
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Yes, it really has been a long, hot summer on the west coast of Florida. From NWS Tampa:



...and the forecast says that streak is likely to continue for at least the next week or so.
Yep....1912 was a Nino year too...
List of Nino to 1966..

1900 1903 1905 1906 1912 1914 1915 1919 1920 1924 1952 1958 1959 1964 1966 1969 1970 1973 1952 1964 1966.
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Yes, it really has been a long, hot summer on the west coast of Florida. From NWS Tampa:



...and the forecast says that streak is likely to continue for at least the next week or so.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the
adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower activity. This system is expected to move west-northwestward
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday and some slow
development is possible during the next couple of days. After that
time, the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which would
make additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near the
Lesser Antilles eastward for several hundred miles is associated
with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are currently
not conducive for development. However, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable late in the weekend, when the
system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto Rico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

both euro and cmc have a LOW in the gulf near the Panhandle of florida around Monday.............
From the Key West NWS Disco...

.CLIMATE...
THANKS TO A LATE EVENING SHOWER AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 5TH CAME IN AT 79
DEGREES...OR ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 80 DEGREES...SET BACK IN 2002. THUS...THE STREAK OF
BREAKING/TYING THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE CEASES AT FIVE DAYS.
HOWEVER...WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 83.2 DEGREES IN KEY WEST
THROUGH THE 5TH OF NOVEMBER...WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF THE WARMEST
START TO THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER ON RECORD...SMASHING THE PREVIOUS
WARMEST START BY A WHOLE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
Good Morning. Here are the Conus storm reports from yesterday through this morning:

yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic

And the current look and set-up for today:






Not looking as bad today as the event yesterday in/near the Southern Midwest:


In terms of the Atlantic/Caribbean, here is the current shear per CIMMS and surface vort: the low near the Yucatan is a broad elongated area that would take several days to consolidate.  I am not too bullish on development unless we start to see some good surface convection start to develop over the next several days in the Bay of Campeche.  Sheer is low there currently but the current lack of organization reflects the low percentage from NHC:
 




Quoting 141. weathermanwannabe:





This map and the 24-hr QPF confuse me, particularly because WU's own weather map gives me a 0% chance of precipitation all day long.
And finally, the latest on Megh in the Middle East:



REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM EAST OF
SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED SLIGHTLY TIGHTER INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A
LOW REFLECTIVITY LLCC FEATURE IN THE 060337Z F18 PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WRAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN INTO WESTERN YEMEN AFTER TAU 72.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR
ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, LAND
INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

Quoting 133. Neapolitan:

Yes, it really has been a long, hot summer on the west coast of Florida. From NWS Tampa:



...and the forecast says that streak is likely to continue for at least the next week or so.


True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.

Pattern looks very active as we approach Thanksgiving. Potentially a cold shot across followed by a Gulf system a couple days later.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.
Morning Scott.. Shows up nice here..This would mean some severe weather too..





Quoting 149. hydrus:

Morning Scott.. Shows up nice here..This would mean some severe weather too..








Yeah we need to watch this as models are continuing to shift the axis of the active weather from Texas to the the SE US especially the Gulf & FL. Looks very active and this has a classic El-Nino look to this precip map below.

CFSv2 maybe leaning toward Weak El-Nino continuing into next Summer but SST's across the Atlantic look similar to 2004/2005. So next year's Hurricane Season could be dangerous to say the least.

145. weathermanwannabe
1:12 PM GMT on November 06, 2015

And finally, the latest on Megh in the Middle East:


That looks very bad for Somalia, Socotra, and possibly Yemen. Especially if it nears the region hit by Chapala.

153. MahFL
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.

Pattern looks very active as we approach Thanksgiving. Potentially a cold shot across followed by a Gulf system a couple days later.

Jim Cantorie says no Arctic Air is coming.
November the new October?

Howdy Gro.

Quoting 155. Grothar:


Walked a bit this morning and went down to the beach.. still a large swath of dark gray sand up along the dunes with a fairly funky fish market smell. This all happened during the Patricia spawned precip event and a resulting red tide that deposited numerous fish on our beautiful sugar sand. Checked with a local who's been in the area for 8 years and they had never seen it not rebound like this before. Hope we get some stormy weather soon maybe it will clean it all up.

Quoting 139. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Key West NWS Disco...

.CLIMATE...
THANKS TO A LATE EVENING SHOWER AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 5TH CAME IN AT 79
DEGREES...OR ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 80 DEGREES...SET BACK IN 2002. THUS...THE STREAK OF
BREAKING/TYING THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE CEASES AT FIVE DAYS.
HOWEVER...WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 83.2 DEGREES IN KEY WEST
THROUGH THE 5TH OF NOVEMBER...WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF THE WARMEST
START TO THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER ON RECORD...SMASHING THE PREVIOUS
WARMEST START BY A WHOLE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.



How do we know it wasn't colder in 1871? Morning Geoff
Quoting 157. HaoleboySurfEC:

November the new October?

Howdy Gro.




Yo. More like September. Been in the 90's all week. Old Gro actually passed out on Tuesday while buying our new car. I still don't know if it was the price or the heat. I went down as I we were walking back into the showroom. They felt so badly, they gave me ice water and knocked another $1000 off the price. I don't ever remember a year so hot as this one.
Good morning everyone, Happy Friday! :) I find this chart invaluable for when trying to identify where a cold front is located, your ridge, and your areas of upper level lows. The 2 AOI are associated with ULL. We have a cold front that stretches from the Baja Peninsula across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys all the way up to west-central Quebec, while we have a ridge across the East Coast of the U.S. Here is what is going on upstairs:

Quoting 91. WalkingInTheSun:



Funny...& sad.
Your post was censured before I looked at it, and I didn't "ignore" you.
Btw, this is a very democratic nation with free speech, so how dare you critique global warming, or cooling or whatever it is now just because the ice thickens down at the South Pole when it's supposed to be melting and instilling fear and panic in everyone enough to destroy the U.S. economy and nobody else's.


We are a democratic nation. But science is not a democracy. You either substantiate your claims or they get ignored as useless garbage. Science is NOT about is pandering to crazies, nutters, and idiots who have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they lack even the most basic grasp of fundamental concepts, exceptionally so when said crazies/nutters/idiots make outrageous claims that have absolutely zero verifiable evidence or skill.

Aside from the lunacy of his regular posts (which have as much to do with real physics as flying rainbow unicorns handing out donuts), his interpretation of a single study about Antarctic land ice is incorrect as is yours.

Worse, you demonstrate a clear hypocrisy. In the past you've openly denigrated organizations like NASA and it's scientists. You've run the gamut of the standard denier garbage, including the whole ridiculous global conspiracy angle. And yet, when these "stupid scientists" and "evil research organizations" release some result that you THINK is favorable to your particular bias (and not once has that been the case) you laud it as the end all be all doctrine on the subject (which no single study ever is, regardless of topic).

Aside from the fact that there have already been serious questions raised about the study, if it does stand up to scrutiny the results are bad news. If Antarctica is not a net contributor to sea level rise, then there is a rather large and unaccounted for source that is. The result of the paper doesn't magically make the sea level rise that was observed over the period of the study go away. And quite frankly, a large unknown source of sea level rise is much more troubling than a large known one.

Oh well, maybe I can become a land speculator and help drive up the price of Canadian real estate for the anticipated warming trend.


Or you could try cracking open a physics book.

You just have to understand that debate is not allowed if you disagree, as we are tolerant people here.


A scientific debate is when all participants are well versed on the subject to discussion. Putting wild/crazy/ludicrous and unsubstantiated claims up against a body of long standing scientific knowledge is not a debate, it's a waste of time.

Einstein: "I have shown that space-time is curved by the presence of mass. Here is my the mathematical model, the results, and how they compare with many independent observations. You can see there is excellent agreement, and the model can be used to predict the behavior of complex systems with a high level accuracy."

Crazy: "Everyone knows that gravity is caused by cake. You and you're evil scientist friends just want to take over the world. And take our women, money, and precious bodily fluids!"

Einstein: "Was zum Teufel?"

The above is an example of what a scientific debate IS NOT.

We to-lery rant at people sometimes, but then we get over it. Btw, we are working at our tolerance factor, as long as you can mostly agree. :)


This is a site dedicated to science. We encourage people to ask intelligent questions about various topics and/or post links to valid and interesting scientific results.

There are plenty of other sites people can go to if they want to vent their inner crazy/willful ignorance.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 158. JNFlori30A:

Walked a bit this morning and went down to the beach.. still a large swath of dark gray sand up along the dunes with a fairly funky fish market smell. This all happened during the Patricia spawned precip event and a resulting red tide that deposited numerous fish on our beautiful sugar sand. Checked with a local who's been in the area for 8 years and they had never seen it not rebound like this before. Hope we get some stormy weather soon maybe it will clean it all up.




JN, you are in the Pensacola area, right?
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.

Pattern looks very active as we approach Thanksgiving. Potentially a cold shot across followed by a Gulf system a couple days later.
your right GFS has been showing the potential back n forth for days now. I think our pattern change will happen the end of this month. And also I think the southeast will be in for treat regarding to winter weather this year. Also there are indications that a blocking will take place end of November first of December, with winter storms to mix in. Only 1 can hope.
Quoting 159. Grothar:




How do we know it wasn't colder in 1871? Morning Geoff
If only you were keys then....
and the nov heat wave comes too an abrupt end
I had some blood pressure issues that I had to get straightened out. Nearly went down in Sam's Club over the summer. They charged me extra.

Dehydration can sneak up on you too.

Mosquito problem here in SC after the floods and continued rains. Temps have been basically perfect for the buggers. I'm sure we will be talking about West Nile threat soon. No hard freeze in sight.

Quoting 160. Grothar:



Yo. More like September. Been in the 90's all week. Old Gro actually passed out on Tuesday while buying our new car. I still don't know if it was the price or the heat. I went down as I we were walking back into the showroom. They felt so badly, they gave me ice water and knocked another $1000 off the price. I don't ever remember a year so hot as this one.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



True but Arctic Cold is looming. Seeing highs on both the Euro & GFS in the 50's with lows in the 30's. Also very wet going forward from this weekend & beyond. Even snow and ice coming for folks in the mid south a week before Thanksgiving potentially.

Pattern looks very active as we approach Thanksgiving. Potentially a cold shot across followed by a Gulf system a couple days later.
I have absolutely no faith in 500-hour forecast models. Not even the Euro or GFS. Neither should you.