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Cyclone Aila kills at least 120 in India, Bangaldesh; 91L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2009

The year's deadliest tropical cyclone so far, Tropical Cyclone Aila, hit the India/Bangladesh border region on May 25 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Aila brought sustained winds of 65 - 75 mph at landfall, and a 3 - 4 meter (10 - 13 foot) storm surge to coast of eastern India and western Bangladesh. Approximately 150,000 were left homeless In India, and at least 45 people were killed, many of them in the Kolkata (Calcutta) area. Damage was heavy in the city, which is India's second largest, with a population of 7.8 million. In Bangladesh, at least 89 are dead and ten of thousands homeless. The death toll will likely go higher, as over 100 people are missing in Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is no stranger to deadly cyclones--fifteen of the world's twenty deadliest tropical cyclones have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent was last year's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Aila as it made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Aila began as a "monsoon depression"--a large cyclonic disturbance that formed within the advancing Southwest Monsoon. The monsoon depression filled the entire Bay of Bengal, then gradually intensified between May 23 and 25 to the threshold of Category 1 hurricane strength. Since Aila started as a monsoon depression, it was a huge storm, with an eye over 100 miles in diameter. The storm helped pull the welcome rains of the Southwest Monsoon into India and Bangladesh a week ahead of normal (Figure 2). For reasons we don't fully understand, tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are very predictable using computer models. Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech was predicting the formation of Aila ten days in advance.


Figure 2. Progress of the Southwest Monsoon over India this week was aided by Cyclone Aila. Image credit: India Meteorology Department.

Disturbance 91L forms near North Carolina
An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, has formed a few hundred miles southeast of North Carolina. The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur over the next 24 - 36 hours. The disturbance will track northwards towards North Carolina's Outer Banks over the next 24 - 36 hours, then get swept northeastwards out to sea. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm should bring winds of 20 - 25 mph and heavy rain to North Carolina's Cape Hatteras on Wednesday. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system on Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Jeff.. great timing also, someone say a bad word in the old blog
thanks doc
...crickets
Thing is i don't think the weather ppl expected this type of destruction form this cyclone. I remember that when hurricane Sider happened i saw the warning on CNN, after 2 hours the gov declared the highest level of warning. This time there was not that much of a Buzz abt the cyclone.But now we know abt 100 ppl died.
there are some links:
Link

Link
-realkila
Dhaka,Bangladesh
Terrible for the folks of India.

What's a Hebert Box?
Great update. It seems that India/Bangladesh can't catch a break these days. I feel for the people there.

Thank you for this update, Dr. Masters.
Quoting IKE:
Terrible for the folks of India.

What's a Hebert Box?


Presslord in a box with a tutu dress on..
Quoting IKE:
Terrible for the folks of India.

What's a Hebert Box?


For one it is a place to store all of your Hebert's, and also a great place to store a bunch of these...
wonder what kind of affect h1n1 flu will have in these areas of the world for sure it would not help spreading around in the "monsoon season". happy weather
Thanks
ok..is there a picture of press in the dress?
91L = Cod Disturbance?
Thanks for the fresh blog update, Dr. Masters.
15. IKE
Thank you Dr. Masters, any storms in that area seem to cause large loss of life. Sorry for all those people in that area.
17. IKE
Looking at a western Atlantic visible on 91L, is that the dreaded pinhole eye I see?pinhole eye!
http://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&tab=wn u tube account of cyclone
Quoting CycloneBoz:
91L = Cod Disturbance?


Do you mean Cape Cod disturbance?
91L looking a bit tighter in the last couple visual images. There is convergence and divergence associated with this system, where it was lacking with 90L. The circulation isn't as strong as 90L's was, but that could change. IS it too far off the coast for a warm cored system?
mudder...go back into Dr. M's archives...a few days before Halloween...
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
A Hebert box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

...but...there are only 2 Hebert boxes...and I have, like, 7 box fulls of Heberts....so...What am I to do?!?!?
I mentioned this last year...but it bears repeating for you skeptics:

I have sailed through both Hebert Boxes...and always ended up in Florida....
Quoting presslord:
I mentioned this last year...but it bears repeating for you skeptics:

I have sailed through both Hebert Boxes...and always ended up in Florida....

You were drinking Rum, your lucky just to have found the US.
Quoting presslord:
I mentioned this last year...but it bears repeating for you skeptics:

I have sailed through both Hebert Boxes...and always ended up in Florida....


I have the same experience with flying.
That definitely looks like an eye. I wasn't even looking for it.
Good morning everyone

For those of you who were concerned that the TropicalAtlantic site was no longer available for real time recon data it is now back online.

See here TropicalAtlantic
Quoting breald:


Do you mean Cape Cod disturbance?


Fish storm, perhaps??
this may be are 1st STS
Does appear it could be an STS Taz. Don't think it'll be warm core. What are the basis for naming an STS again?
At least we should get a good soaking from 91L here in NC!
Quoting homegirl:
Does appear it could be an STS Taz. Don't think it'll be warm core. What are the basis for naming an STS again?


Warm Core and shares characteristics of both an extra-tropical storm and a tropical storm
for give me if am being rude



but how can Cyclone turn deady way way back E like Bangaldesh and kill a lot of people and the Cyclone here in the USA dont kill has many or may be none at all
39. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
for give me if am being rude



but how can Cyclone turn deady way way back E like Bangaldesh and kill a lot of people and the Cyclone here in the USA dont kill has many or may be none at all


The way they live is part of it....impoverished, for the most part.
Thx Cane. :)
Does anyone have a read on the LOW coming off TX, looks really strong right now and it is supposed to be over water....thanks in advance
Quoting IKE:


The way they live is part of it....impoverished, for the most part.



ok ike
Quoting homegirl:
Thx Cane. :)


Your Welcome.
Quoting IKE:


The way they live is part of it....impoverished, for the most part.



Cyclone kills 116
Article from: Agence France-Presse

From correspondents in Dhaka

May 26, 2009 10:30pm

BANGLADESH and India have launched major relief operations after a cyclone tore into the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, killing at least 116 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.

Many of the casualties in Bangladesh were reported to be children who drowned when Cyclone Aila triggered a 4m surge as it made landfall yesterday.

About 430,000 people were marooned, and military and civil defence teams were struggling to deliver food, water and emergency shelters, government officials in Dhaka said today.

Bangladesh's disaster management minister Abdur Razzak said people on remote islands had been worst affected and could not be reached because of rough seas.

"Army helicopters are being deployed to carry food and other supplies until the seas calm,'' he said.

The government's disaster control spokesman, Dalil Uddin, said 81 people in Bangladesh were confirmed dead, including 23 from one village that was swept out to sea after a dam burst.

He said several hundred people had been injured as the storm tore over an area where about three million people live, damaging or destroying 180,000 mud and bamboo homes.

"Hundreds of kilometres of road have been wiped out,'' he said.

At least 35 people were also killed in India's West Bengal when the cyclone hit the crowded state capital of Kolkata, bringing down trees and electricity pylons, and smashing cars, the state's relief minister Mortaza Hossain said.

"The cyclone left a trail of destruction everywhere. Army and border guards have been called out to clear the debris and to reach out to the affected areas with relief,'' he said.

Several people were killed in vehicle accidents involving fallen trees, he said.

As well as the loss of life, tens of thousands of people across the region lost their homes and livelihoods with scores of shrimp farms destroyed and herds of goats and cows washed away.
Quoting Tazmanian:
for give me if am being rude



but how can Cyclone turn deady way way back E like Bangaldesh and kill a lot of people and the Cyclone here in the USA dont kill has many or may be none at all


There are many reasons why the death toll in places like Bangladesh tends to be high. These include insufficent warnings, the inability of the Government to even get the message out to the population, many of whom do not even have a radio, homes that are little more than huts and blow down easily , millions that live on low lying swampy land that is prone to storm surge, inability to evacuate in the face of a cyclone and so on.

Developed countries like the USA have sophisticated emergency management systems and building codes designed to ensure that the populace is protected as far as possible from the ravages of tropical systems.

High death tolls from natural disasters is but one of the scourges of poor undeveloped countries with huge populations and little in the way of resources.

Quoting Tazmanian:
for give me if am being rude



but how can Cyclone turn deady way way back E like Bangaldesh and kill a lot of people and the Cyclone here in the USA dont kill has many or may be none at all


Link

Link





This should provide a good overview. Don't fear the CIA link.


Link

Link
Quoting kmanislander:


There are many reasons why the death toll in places like Bangladesh tends to be high. These include insufficent warnings, the inability of the Government to even get the message out to the population, many of whom do not even have a radio, homes that are little more than huts and blow down easily , millions that live on low lying swampy land that is prone to storm surge, inability to evacuate in the face of a cyclone and so on.

Developed countries like the USA have sophisticated emergency management systems and building codes designed to ensure that the populace is protected as far as possible from the ravages of tropical systems.

High death tolls from from natural disasters is but one of the scourges of poor undeveloped countries with huge populations and little in the way of resources.





i see got it thanks
49. IKE
That's terrible...from the posted story...

"He said several hundred people had been injured as the storm tore over an area where about three million people live, damaging or destroying 180,000 mud and bamboo homes.".....

Quoting Ossqss:


Link

Link





This should provide a good overview. Don't fear the CIA link.


Link

Link



thanks
51. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
90L seems to be organizing


90L?
death toll over in that part of the world has more to do with the poor structure of the living quarters, the high concentration of people in a small area,and how close to sea lever the land is,so the storm surge can travel far inland.
Quoting Tazmanian:
for give me if am being rude



but how can Cyclone turn deady way way back E like Bangaldesh and kill a lot of people and the Cyclone here in the USA dont kill has many or may be none at all


Mainly its the geography of the area. The coast there has a very long continental shelf, and the land is very, very, VERY flat, with almost no change in elevation from sea level. Think of the mississippi river delta, except about 5 times bigger.

A long (wide?) continental shelf will allow for bigger storm surges, which is why a CAT 1 can push a 12 foot surge.
Tallahassee/Big Bend region (I am South of Tally today near the Gulf) getting some steady rain from a big batch of pop-up showers flowing North from Apalachee Bay into Tallahassee area.....We seem to be in a little "training" line from south to north, and probably for the next several hours, so we will have some minor local flooding this morning........
55. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Tallahassee/Big Bend region (I am South of Tally today near the Gulf) getting some steady rain from a big batch of pop-up showers flowing North from Apalachee Bay into Tallahassee area.....We seem to be in a little "training" line from south to north, and probably for the next several hours, so we will have some minor local flooding this morning........


Yeah, you are...I got 3.67 inches on Sunday....

Quoting Unfriendly:


Mainly its the geography of the area. The coast there has a very long continental shelf, and the land is very, very, VERY flat, with almost no change in elevation from sea level. Think of the mississippi river delta, except about 5 times bigger.

A long (wide?) continental shelf will allow for bigger storm surges, which is why a CAT 1 can push a 12 foot surge.



thanks
By comparison, Grand Cayman with an average elevation above sea level of less than 10 feet experienced over 60% of its land mass submerged by the surge and cat 4/5 winds of Ivan and yet there were but 2 or 3 fatalaties. Those fatalities included one person hit on the head by a collapsing roof, one heart attack and a fisherman who went to check on his boat when he shouldn't have.

Our high survival rate in the teeth of one of the most dangerous storms in history is testament to the importance of solid construction and a populace that was able to take proactive steps in conjunction with an effective Government structure.
7). It jogged west! It's not a trend! LOL
by for now back this PM
Quoting IKE:


Yeah, you are...I got 3.67 inches on Sunday....



He Ike...I can't figure out from the water loops if this is possibly a "training" line from the remnant of the Gulf low from the weekend over the Central Conus now but we (Big Bend) will be rained on for most of the morning...
61. IKE
Looks like the COC is near 30.5N and 74.8W.

Easy to see with the pinhole eye it has.
62. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


He Ike...I can't figure out from the water loops if this is possibly a "training" line from the remnant of the Gulf low from the weekend over the Central Conus now but we (Big Bend) will be rained on for most of the morning...


It could be. We got soaked Sunday. I've had around 6 inches of rain since 90L came up this way.

Mushrooms are popping up all over my yard.
morning!!!,well we've had our first "land breeze" showers here in sarasota this morning...reminds me of 2004,2005 when the reverse summertime pattern was more common then the summertime pattern,here in swfl.....
90L=TS ana!!!
91L sorry
Actually given the density of the population and the poor state of communication and readiness, I am pleasantly surprised the death toll from Aila is not greater. 91L should also not be much of a factor--maybe some wind/rain for the OBX but that's about it. Life is good!
67. Toz
The tropics seem to be quite active for so early in the season, lets hope it's not an omen of things to come.
the new invest is another interesting system probally get alittle stronger as the system passes through the gulf stream north maybe following it ne and out to sea leftovers guess
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the COC is near 30.5N and 74.8W.

Easy to see with the pinhole eye it has.

pinhole eye XD
It is sad how such storms that would not be much to us can be to a county that is still developing so devastating.
strange no rain on radar yet it is raining hard.
Just completed my Tropical Update if anyone would like to view......

TampaSpins Tropical Update

73. IKE
The dreaded pinhole-eye...

74. 7544
this interesting more rain for s fla

Link
Were on our 2nd Invest and its not even June yet?
INV/91L/02




Quoting SevereHurricane:
Were on our 2nd Invest and its not even June yet?


kind of scary isn't it...
Bleh... Invests aren't all that scary. Both 90L and 91L have been spinoffs from mid-latitude cyclones...which are fairly common in early season (or preseason). Both found a small area of moderately lower shear, in a very high shear environment overall in the Atlantic.

Until I see the general shear pattern dropping (July or August) and the SSTs above the minimal 26/27°C needed for formation I'm not too concerned about what's out there.

HK
you here or on the other site?
I would welcome anyone who has data to help explain the rapid cooling of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic in the January - March 2009 time frame!

Was it stronger than normal trade winds? Cooler then normal air masses?

And transitioning to history - from what I've read the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation is not well supported by any oceanic data - so what has caused the warm SSTs in the Atlantic since 1995?


ReliefWEB



Tropical Cyclone Aila - May 2009
Updates on India, Bangladesh affected by the Tropical Cyclone Aila - May 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. TC-2009-000105-BGD



Bangladesh: Disaster Management Information Centre situation report 26 May 2009 2nd ed

Source: Government of Bangladesh

Date: 26 May 2009

Quoting K8eCane:
HK
you here or on the other site?


I'm here. I've not got much time to talk today as I'll be in and out.
FSU MM5 track for 91L shifted west.

Cone

Intensity
OSUWXGUY--

It is my understanding that the strong high pressure systems that dominated earlier this year brought stronger than normal trade winds. If you look the waters are warmer than normal deeper down but the Surface temps are cooler...

Now the temps are on the rise quickly
WPB that is an interesting development---although I highly doubt it would intensify over land and north of Cape Hatteras as a tropical system. But perhaps 91L will amount to something after all!
thae mm5 model usually bombs systems up.
I almost wish it would become a TD just so we can see exactly what the NHC advisories will look like this year.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWENTY-ONE
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER AILA (BOB02-2009)
14:30 PM IST May 26 2009
===============================

Subject: Depression over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim weakened into a well marked low pressure area.

At 9:00 AM UTC, The depression over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim weakened into a well marked low pressure area and lay centered over the same region.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours.

This is the final advisory

---
Storm name is now retired
90. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
thae mm5 model usually bombs systems up.


Agree.
I know the main AOI is 91L... I am at work as most of you know and do not have access to many sites...lol! Any ideas on the low pressure system that is fixing to enter the Gulf off of South Texas?
It would be interesting to see if this pans out:

324 hours

348 hours
384 hours

Typical hot spot for June activity (Arlene, Alberto) so it wouldn't surprise me to see this come true even if its 2 weeks from now.
It's crazy I take the weekend off from the blogs and we have a whole new invest... my my how fast these things do pop up

Good morning everyone!
Vigorous spin on the west side of 91L:
Seems like everyone is more creative with their profile pictures/avatars this year.... I will try to comply.
Good morning everyone! When was 91L declared an invest? NHC still doesn't seem to have a floater on it. I'll check Navy :o)

CaneW good to have you back! Shoot me an email abt the rest of your trip when you get a minute.
91L has a lot going for it in terms of possible development - decent circulation, low shear, good WV, and a path directly over the gulf stream. Would not be suprised if OBX gets the year's first TS outta this one.
Catastrophic:

20090526.1500 (about 2 hrs ago)
nvm, ignore/delete post plz.
Hades, Thanks!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
CaneW good to have you back! Shoot me an email abt the rest of your trip when you get a minute.


Thanks, the rest of the trip was great. I did a ton of hiking. I really enjoyed myself!
12Z CMC is showing some nice Pacific development later this week.
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


Yay Coastal! Need some tropic action here in MD..
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


Last 2 frames show a decent fujiwhara effect (or is it fujiwhara effect type interaction, due to the lows being lows and not TC?). Those are some strong lows up there, eh?
also showing activity coming from lower gulf move east towards florida towards the end of the run
91L approaching NC

Hurricane hunters are going to investigate. Link
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Hurricane hunters are going to investigate. Link


Wow, I didn't think they'd investigate this yet. To me, it isn't all that impressive.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, I didn't think they'd investigate this yet. To me, it isn't all that impressive.


The flight is 2mr. Plenty of time
Quoting Weather456:


The flight is 2mr. Plenty of time


Is that not scheduled for tomorrow per the text? ?

Sorry, did not catch the prior post 456


still forecasted for another cyclone.. didn't see anything yet on a developing low from the India Meteorological Department yet..
Quoting Ossqss:


Is that not scheduled for tomorrow per the text? ?


yea
2mr=tomorrow
I do not need any rain here in NC. The drought status has left and heavy tropical like rains have caused flooding here.Today, schools were on a two hour delay but were soon closed with evacuations taking place.See link.

I had no idea 91L just formed, good thing to see it going north-east on Wednesday. Most areas in NC did not see this type of flooding like in my neck of the woods, but over 95% of the state got a lot of rain to end the drought. Last week almost 10inches fell in the reservoir which caused a mudslide, and now this.

Link
Quoting Walshy:
I do not need any rain here in NC. The drought status has left and heavy tropical like rains have caused flooding here.Today, schools were on a two hour delay but were soon closed with evacuations taking place.See link.

I had no idea 91L just formed, good thing to see it going north-east on Wednesday. Most areas in NC did not see this type of flooding like in my neck of the woods, but over 95% of the state got a lot of rain to end the drought. Last week almost 10inches fell in the reservoir which caused a mudslide, and now this.

Link


Along the central and northern coast of NC we still need rain. Everything is dry.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
OSUWXGUY--

It is my understanding that the strong high pressure systems that dominated earlier this year brought stronger than normal trade winds. If you look the waters are warmer than normal deeper down but the Surface temps are cooler...

Now the temps are on the rise quickly


Thanks for the response SomeRandomTexan!

I assume you mean that the sea height anomalies taken from satellites show that the below normal temps are relatively confined to the near surface?

Looking at page 8 of the latest weekly ENSO update shows some strong warming in the eastern Atlantic, though some of that can be explained by just how much below normal these areas were a month ago.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Also, do you have an image or anything to support the higher than normal pressure in the central Atlantic driving the trade winds?

95f in Trinidad today. It is HOT....
OSUWXGUY--

No I don't... I was relaying the information that was told to me by either Weather456, Levi23, or Scottsvb... I can't remember which one...

I had the same question about 2 weeks ago.
91L looks better than 90L ever did
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
NHC Tropical Cyclone Guidance for 91L.INVEST


The NHC need to do it now before it gets a chance to weaken.

I feel that 91L has a better chance of forming.
Hello Everyone! No worry about warmer than normal water temperatures in the Destin, FL area! Had the boat out Sunday and Monday and on an incoming tide the water near Destin didn't get any warmer than 75. The GOM Nor'Easter cooled our water down quite a bit. We shouldn't have to worry about any strong tropical systems around the Florida Panhandle for a while. Despite the low coming onshore this weekend, Sunday and Monday turned out to be pretty good boating days after all!
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Thanks for the response SomeRandomTexan!

I assume you mean that the sea height anomalies taken from satellites show that the below normal temps are relatively confined to the near surface?

Looking at page 8 of the latest weekly ENSO update shows some strong warming in the eastern Atlantic, though some of that can be explained by just how much below normal these areas were a month ago.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Also, do you have an image or anything to support the higher than normal pressure in the central Atlantic driving the trade winds?



2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP)

There was no doubt that April 2009 saw a positive phase in the NAO with a stronger Azores High and deeper Icelandic Low. Average MSLP was also above average for much of the Atlantic basin with trades averaging above normal.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Stronger than normal trades earlier this year implied increase evaporational cooling in the tropical Atlantic but downwelling and warming in the West Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and just off the east coast. This is the basis on which I based the development areas in the introduction above and explained the temperature anomaly pattern being observed in April 2009.

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
OSUWXGUY--

No I don't... I was relaying the information that was told to me by either Weather456, Levi23, or Scottsvb... I can't remember which one...

I had the same question about 2 weeks ago.


Alrighty...thanks!
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 26 MAY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


130. IKE
The pressure on 91L on the SSD site is up to 1012 mb's.
Good afternoon everyone. Looks like we may have a fishy on our plate this week.
132. Mikla
Some 12z models:
Weather456 - Thanks for finding that graphic!

What's interesting is that the strong easterly anomalies shown in the imager are really in the higher latitudes ~30-40°N stretching from west of Spain towards Bermuda. In this region, the winds are usually weak being in the center of the Bermuda High or westerly - meaning that an easterly anomaly would actually mean lower wind speeds and associated evaporational cooling.

I see a strong westerly anomaly along the equator (again lower trade winds - and seemingly less upwelling).

Over what would be considered the Main Development Region there doesn't seem to be much of any meaningful anomaly...or at least I don't see it???
Thanks Weather456... couldn't remember which one of you it was ;)
555

WHXX04 KWBC 261724

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L



INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 26



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 29.6 75.5 355./14.0

6 30.2 75.4 12./ 6.6

12 31.0 75.5 352./ 8.2

18 32.1 75.4 4./10.9

24 33.2 74.9 23./11.9

30 34.3 74.3 32./11.9

36 35.4 73.6 29./12.3

42 36.8 72.6 37./15.7

48 38.0 71.1 53./17.4

54 39.0 69.3 59./17.2

60 40.0 67.6 61./16.1

66 40.9 65.7 63./16.9

72 41.9 64.4 54./14.4

78 43.1 62.9 50./16.1



STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
136. IKE
Quoting Michfan:
Good afternoon everyone. Looks like we may have a fishy on our plate this week.


300

WHXX01 KWBC 261243

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1243 UTC TUE MAY 26 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20090526 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090526 1200 090527 0000 090527 1200 090528 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.5N 75.3W 30.9N 75.5W 32.8N 75.2W 34.7N 74.2W

BAMD 29.5N 75.3W 31.5N 75.6W 33.6N 75.5W 35.7N 74.4W

BAMM 29.5N 75.3W 31.2N 75.4W 33.1N 75.1W 34.9N 73.9W

LBAR 29.5N 75.3W 31.9N 75.0W 34.1N 74.5W 36.2N 72.6W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090528 1200 090529 1200 090530 1200 090531 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 36.7N 71.7W 40.5N 63.8W 43.8N 54.4W 45.6N 47.0W

BAMD 37.4N 71.8W 39.9N 61.7W 39.3N 48.8W 35.4N 39.3W

BAMM 36.5N 71.6W 39.4N 63.0W 40.7N 51.6W 37.9N 41.8W

LBAR 37.5N 69.5W 38.1N 58.0W 36.5N 44.7W .0N .0W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 47KTS 39KTS

DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 47KTS 39KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 75.3W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 26.7N LONM12 = 74.6W DIRM12 = 353DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 75.1W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Anybody want to make a comment about Miami radar looks pretty scary. Is that a bow echo in s. dade.
NHC 91L INVEST 20090526 1800 306N 0754W
The Panhandle looks like it is getting nailed to.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Anybody want to make a comment about Miami radar looks pretty scary. Is that a bow echo in s. dade.


Might be some gusty winds with that line of storms...though the vertical wind shear needed for typically bad bow echoes and derechoes is not present. More generated by outflow than anything.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Anybody want to make a comment about Miami radar looks pretty scary. Is that a bow echo in s. dade.


Nope, and I'd be more worried in GA.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 91L INVEST 20090526 1800 306N 0754W


I'm thinking we have a broad center centered there. Looking at the satellite I wouldn't be suprised to see the center consolidate farther west.
Thanks 141
does anybody have any good satellite links for 91L cause i cant find any satellites images/loops centerd directly over her
Mesocyclone on Miami radar.
Quoting nchurricane:
does anybody have any good satellite links for 91L cause i cant find any satellites images/loops centerd directly over her




RAMSDIS
Well I was wrong about this low it did become an invest, still I don't think It'll form
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




RAMSDIS

thank you so much
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 256 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT... AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT... RIVIERA BEACH... NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... LARGE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
154. IKE
Looks like the east-PAC gets its first hurricane of the season on the 12Z ECMWF.
I see we have 91L. Nice broad area of low pressure. That probably has a better chance than 90L of becoming named.
It looks like a decent line of storms has formed along the Florida peninsula. There is also another strong line forming off the west coast.
My house in miami is getting ROCKED with storms right now WOW!!!!!!!!! :o :0
from wiki:

Was looking at old storms to prepare for this season...

Impressive blue marble map of cuba after gustav... amazing how fast people forget the monster that almost was.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/Gustav_churned_waters_off_Cuba.jpg
There was a good line that formed yesterday along the spine of the north FL peninsula and headed NE with the dominant GOM seabreeze. The line fell apart long before reaching us however.
Quoting Drakoen:
I see we have 91L. Nice broad area of low pressure. That probably has a better chance than 90L of becoming named.


Drakoen,
With all due respect I am glad it did not form into anything..... I just don't belive that anyone on the gulf coast is ready for that kind of weather....

Taco :0)
Center Fix:
Quoting Drakoen:
I see we have 91L. Nice broad area of low pressure. That probably has a better chance than 90L of becoming named.


Yes I noticed it on the loops, yesterday I didn't notice anything on the Quicksat though. Any recent ones? Its moving at a quick pace.
164. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND
PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Also....

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE LOW WILL PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR THUNDER LOOK
POOR SO DID NOT MENTION. WENT WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS...TAPERED
FROM HIGHEST SOUTHWEST TO LOWEST NORTHEAST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING SO CARRIED NO POPS AFTER 05Z THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

166. IKE
Looks like 91L is officially a fish.
Fish Front
I'll take the Troll Almondine with Lemon Butter Sauce...a House Salad with some Ranch GFS too.

Oh, and a Coke with Low,Low SST's.
NHC might be anticipating a cyclone to form:
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.
30.8N 77.7W 1009mb drifting NW near 5mph .. the LLC is west of the midlevel low... should turn more N and might be absorbed into the midlevel low later this evening..I do expect the midlevel low to continue to migrate down to the surface as it partially is already. 40% chance of development... might be just extra tropical by Weds.
Quoting taco2me61:


Drakoen,
With all due respect I am glad it did not form into anything..... I just don't belive that anyone on the gulf coast is ready for that kind of weather....

Taco :0)


Hey Taco, I agree wholeheartedly, also, you have mail.
Quoting Patrap:
I'll take the Troll Almondine with Lemon Butter Sauce...a House Salad with some Ranch GFS too.

Oh, and a Coke with Low,Low SST's.


Now my coworkers are looking at me like I'm crazy for laughing at my desk... thanks Patrap...
Does anybody think the line of storms in the gulf will hold together and reach the coast tonight? If they can hold together, Tampa/St. Pete will see some nasty weather.
LOL,..always good to see the Phish Jokes..

I'll get ya a paper towel too.
176. IKE
Looks like this weekend will be nice in the SE USA. Cold front moves through and then high pressure builds in. Might be able to mow the mushrooms in my yard. :))))
post 169...there is no such thing as the "Carolina coast"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ACTF - Major Models Combo



OMG!!!!!!!! The X-Trap has it coming right over me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NHC Guidance - Average Model Spread



Quoting Weather456:
ACTF - Major Models Combo





It will stay off the Carolina coast, but maybe Bermuda could get some rain from this.
182. IKE
Quoting presslord:
post 169...there is no such thing as the "Carolina coast"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LOL....email the NHC.

It's raining outside...and 74.5 degrees.

WAVCIS,Coastal Studies Institute,LSU..reloaded

"Tropical Weather" on the Menu,left Side..is the Wunderground Tropical Page
good day press
Medium Range Model Combo

Does the "Combo" come with Fries too?
The model combo includes every model ever run on the system. Some models I have never heard about.
Quoting Patrap:
Does the "Combo" come with Fries too?


lol...Fries and wedges. How may I take you order.
Clash of the tstorms...hope we see some of it -love the thunder and lightning.

Link
and supersize too pat if ya gonna get a combo might as well make it filling
Yo KEEP!
Patrap Quick wu-Poll
************************

Should the Atlantic Hurricane Season begin May 15th Like in the East Pacific?



Post "7" for YES

Post "0" for NO
Fl Radar Loop
It could miss me.
........7
195. IKE
......7

To me it's already started.
7 (seven)
Trending toward 7 seems..
If it becomes a long-term trend, yes. Otherwise no
might be a landslide poll there pat
No "waffling" 456..LOL
Quoting Weather456:
If it becomes a long-term trend, yes (7). Otherwise no (0)
I'd say that's pretty conclusive Pat...
Thats a tough one. well 7

202. Weather456 3:20 PM CDT on May 26, 2009 Quoting Weather456:

If it becomes a long-term trend, yes (7).

Otherwise no (0)




*********************************************************************
Why..I dont believe we've seen many Self Quotes.

I'll have the Fish too,..chips of course with mine.

And nother Coffee please..

7
Hurricane Ike's combo

Pat...I've always kept a couple of geckos aboard the boat...they eat all the bugs...
Why is everyone saying 7?
192.
Does it need a date to start? Or end?
Pat, that Gecko would drink TEA! Not coffee!!!!! Blimey!

;)
91L Gone Fishing!! With Lebron and Melo. LOL
7!

Also, 91L is looking good.

I give it a 60-80% chance of becoming a STS (or TS) by Friday and a 40-60% by Thursday or Wednesday.
Wild afternoon here across south dade....



.....7
6.99! HA HA ...

Lol
7

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't scrambled the hurricane hunters

07
Ok maybe not - its got barely any highlevel clouds.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200991_sat.jpg
7,

when is this nasty weather over South Florida going to end? I know we are in rainy season, but sheesh, the amount lightning and hail that I have seen since Friday is crazy. Swore I saw a vortex earlier out west along the Glades, what else does mother nature have in store for us in the next week or so?
does anyone know when the hurricane hunters are supposed to investigate 91
(7)

I see we have 91L. I think this has a chance to develop by late tomorrow or early Thursday.
Quoting stillwaiting:
......hmmm I better re-think that,....maybe..highly unusual though???to be coming off the GOM in the evening w/no front or TC in the area???....seems odd it could be a fun night if that trough arrives around sunset!!!
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
SURFACE LOW PRES FORMED EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR 29N75W AND
SINCE HAS BEEN TRACKING NWD...NOW CENTERED NEAR 30N75W. A HI-RES
QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1030 Z REVEALED A SWATH OF 20-25 KT E TO
SE WINDS N AND E OF AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED SFC
CENTER/TROUGH AXIS. THERE ARE HIGHER WIND VECTORS IN THE PASS
...BUT THESE ARE RAIN FLAGGED. CONVECTION IS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE N AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGER
AREA OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BLOSSOMED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY FUELED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GFS DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTIVE AREA AND DRIFTS
IT NWD. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS WITH THE
CURRENT LOW...DID NOT INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AS IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WED THROUGH SAT.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.



Quoting theFatherofNature:
does anyone know when the hurricane hunters are supposed to investigate 91


No reason to in my view convection is waning and everything looks to be aloft.
Does anyone remember when we did not have a sub tropical storm form before the season started? And if so, what was the nature of that season during a neutral La Nina - into a moderate El Nino?
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.



I say 7 pat...but doncha Know that would be too easy!

jo
23, those photos look like the area outside of my job earlier. Only much darker, and much broader of a range on them.
I say 0.
This is a little to active for May LOL. 2 Invests, few days apart. Wow.
Mike you didn't get anything up there this afternoon? It was crazy down here posted pics a little bit up.
The selecting of 15th May for the Pacific and 1st June for the Atlantic was driven primarily by the fact that from a climatological perspective those were the dates after which one would would expect to see tropical cyclone activity in those basins.

Obviously, in any given year there may be either an early or late start or finish to the season in the Epac or Atl. Unless one can demonstrate a shift in the long term climatology that was used to fix the start dates in the first place I see no basis for changing the Atl season to May 15th.

Neither 90L nor 91L ( so far ) classify as tropical cyclones and do not amount, IMO, to an early start to this year's season.

In short "0" ( LOL )
The lightening in south dade was crazy! Good down-pours too, hope it's helping the drought.
Hiya everyone! Nice to see so many of the regulars back on track :-)

7

Oh and I'd like to have the tasty 91L Model Combo with wedges please with a Dr. Peppers with low SST and a high shear salad. Many thanks to the genius chefs and waiters in the WU restaurant for this laugh at the end of a rather dull day. Cheers!

23: Oh I got stuff up here, and btw its Joseph and not Mike. We got pounded on up here, mostly severe, and if you look at the NEXRAD, we got more on the way out west along the Glades. So as the ole saying goes, batten down the hatches here we go again
Quoting foggymyst:
The lightening in south dade was crazy! Good down-pours too, hope it's helping the drought.


What drought?

Quoting hurricane23:
Mike you didn't get anything up there this afternoon? It was crazy down here posted pics a little bit up.


I had a brief thunderstorm before with some gusty winds and lightning, but nothing close to the one you guys down there had before.
thats a much better colour 23
The NHC still hasn't got 91L on their website; what's up with that?
Quoting BaltOCane:
The NHC still hasn't got 91L on their website; what's up with that?


NHC is not interested in 90L by tommorow there might not be anything to recon.Rain for coastal areas of NC.

Nice preseason warm-up though
the whole state of fla will be blue when its done 23
Still some strong cells to the West.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
I like the reflectivity on that radar.

nice upgrade accu
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 27/1730Z
D. 34.0N 74.5W
E. 27/2030Z TO 28/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 28/0145Z
D. 35.5N 73.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR 37N 71W
AT 28/1800Z.



I say 7 pat...but doncha Know that would be too easy!

jo



Whoa, haven't seen that since November! They're being less pessimistic with 91L than 90L.
Still more coming from the GOM

Quoting hurricane23:
I like the reflectivity on that radar.


Yeah its pretty useful.
91L is going to need some convection later tonight.

those cloud tops aren't very high are they?
7 for now but remember this is an active cycle and only 26 storms have formed before may
new disturbance,east GOM???,sheers 10-15kts,there's LL converg and UL diverg....this w/be the area I'll be watching....Link
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE-
455 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...IMMINENT SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL FIRE UP STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT A COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WAS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE.

THIS COLLISION WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE LEON SPRINGS...TO NEAR GENEVA....BITHLO...WEDGEFIELD...TO FOREVER FLORIDA...LAKE MARIAN...THE KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE... AND FINALLY...TO BASINGER.

THE MAIN AREAS THREATENED BY STORMS THAT FORM FROM THIS COLLISION WILL BE INTERIOR VOLUSIA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SEMINOLE...ORANGE
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES...AND ALL OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM AS A RESULT OF THIS COLLISION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.
256 I think those are just thunder storms no low in there or if there is a very small one
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah its Accuweather Pro's new "Enhanced radar". Its pretty useful.


Thats on pro? I can get it for free on the accu's site.You probably get the full sreen version.

Hard to believe that with all the rain we've had in Florida that Lake Okeechobee has only gone up .50 inch.

Does anyone know if they have the flood gates open?
Looks like we're about to get thumped over here on the east coast. Round two for us here east of I-95.
Does it look like the line of storms in the GOM will make it to the coast? If so, we could be in for some crazy weather in about an hour and a half, if my timing is correct?

Edit: Oh an I should specify thta I'm in Tampa.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hard to believe that with all the rain we've had in Florida that Lake Okeechobee has only gone up .50 inch.

Does anyone know if they have the flood gates open?


By the weekend what ever drought is left in parts of florida will be erased.Summer pattern in full effect plan on heading indoors each afternoon for the foreseeable future.
Quoting hurricane23:


Thats on pro? I can get for free on the accu's site.You probably get the full sreen version.



Yeah you can re size the image and also have it loop about 30 frames. Theres also numerous satellites that you can view.

For example:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
If the entire season had 25 Invests but not one became a classified system would the season be considered active or not ?.

Just because we have had two areas of interest before June 1st does not , in and of itself , signify anything in particular. In fact, June 1st could roll around and we not see any further Invests for that entire month. Not saying it will happen but it has happened before.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah you can re size the image and also have it loop about 30 frames. Theres also numerous satellites that you can view.

For example:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Which section of pro can i get that?
think some people need to take a chill pill... its not august its may, not every group of storms is something to watch...
and
0
Quoting kmanislander:
If the entire season had 25 Invests but not one became a classified system would the season be considered active or not ?.

Just because we have had two areas of interest before June 1st does not , in and of itself , signify anything in particular. In fact, June 1st could roll around and we not see any further Invests for that entire month. Not saying it will happen but it has happened before.



I would say no cause none of them were named storms.
Mike thats Sweet...Talk to you later gotta get the wife at work.
260. zoomiami. Could never understand the flood gates with the lake levels being so low. A weeks worth of good rains and they open the gates to taylor creek and other areas and trash the Indian River estuaries. You know its bad when there are dead brim and lilypads on the beach after a outgoing tide, not to mention the carpet algae on the reefs outside the inlet.
0. But its all good fun VA. Everyone is coming out of remission.
Stillwaiting--

don't think that this will amount to much except t-storms...jmho
Quoting Weather456:


Which section of pro can i get that?


Click on the "Mapspace" under Radar. Its highlighted green.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting Michfan:
0. But its all good fun VA. Everyone is coming out of remission.


haha i know that first invest... it was like an alarm went off. just people need to relax its a long season and there will be plenty of storms to get hyped about
456 i had RADAR PLUS PLATINUM about a year ago and its pretty good. 100 frame loops lol

Iam out
You cant go wrong with GR
So what. No one is getting hyped. Invests are there to watch. And some people need to stop this May nonsense because it did not work for the past several years. Most of the experts including W456, SW, and JM provided their opinions and none gave it a 0% chance with data to backup. The most others do to back up thier data is bold capital letters and by claiming its May. FWI, we are all know what month we are in.
Quoting hurricane23:
456 i had RADAR PLUS PLATINUM about a year ago and its pretty good. 100 frame loops lol

Iam out


Yeah I have Radar Plus Silver. Its alright...but GRLevel2AE is way better.
See you later Adrian.
Thanks S2007
Quoting Weather456:
Thanks S2007


No problem. If you have any questions just PM me.
Quoting hahaguy:


I would say no cause none of them were named storms.


Agreed, precisely my point. Just because we have two Invests prior to June 1st is not a reason to change the season start date and does not qualify as an early start
Still a formidable line to my West

Key
Green: Flood statement
Orange: Severe Thunderstorm warning
Tan: Special weather statement

Advisories:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
kman (282) Agreed. If the two invests were named this early in the season then it might be considered an early start to a possibly active season. But as of now, no need to discuss opening the season earlier. After all, the official definition of hurricane season is "The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes." High incidence being the key words.

However, I can see this becoming a more frequent topic of conversation this upcoming season.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Weather456 - Thanks for finding that graphic!

What's interesting is that the strong easterly anomalies shown in the imager are really in the higher latitudes ~30-40%uFFFDN stretching from west of Spain towards Bermuda. In this region, the winds are usually weak being in the center of the Bermuda High or westerly - meaning that an easterly anomaly would actually mean lower wind speeds and associated evaporational cooling.

I see a strong westerly anomaly along the equator (again lower trade winds - and seemingly less upwelling).

Over what would be considered the Main Development Region there doesn't seem to be much of any meaningful anomaly...or at least I don't see it???


Divergence at the surface is one cause of upwelling and it was evident during the past 45 days




Also,

Looks like we'll see an upward pulse of MJO around June 10.
Long range GFS shows shear relaxing in the Caribbean around that time.

Yes I realize that's 14 days+ but its something to watch once 91L is gone.
284. AWeatherLover 9:35 PM GMT on May 26, 2009

Wouldn't it be ironic if the first named storm did not show up until the end of July ?.

With shear running above normal now June could be quiet.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
So what. No one is getting hyped. Invests are there to watch. And some people need to stop this May nonsense because it did not work for the past several years. Most of the experts including W456, SW, and JM provided their opinions and none gave it a 0% chance with data to backup. The most others do to back up thier data is bold capital letters and by claiming its May. FWI, we are all know what month we are in.
but i believe the main reason for selecting 7 was not because of 2 invest occurring this year but the fact over past few years that may events are slowly becoming more common and would need further research and observation to warrant a change of start dates

its kinda like a busy intersection why wait till someone gets killed before installing the lights to prevent it
if that line in the gom holds together and moves ashore after sunset as a land breeze develops,would that inhance or inhibit the storms moving onshore
????,anyone????
Gotta pick some stuff up at the store. Ill be back later.
In the last 144 years ( since 1865 ) there have only been 21 May storms, for an average of one every 6.86 years.

Hardly a reason to change the date to 15th May.
Off for the afternoon but regardless of whether we end up with a storm or two in June, or have to wait for July for sheer levels to drop, I don't quite remember this much "regular" rain for the SE US and Florida at this time of the year, over the past few years with the exception of Tropical Storm Faye last year, which is really a great thing considering all the drought issues these areas have faced recently....It's all good regardless of the outcome of the coming h-season.
Anyway, something interesting to ponder. I'm out for now
294. JRRP
2005

2009

the ITCZ is too south for this time of the year
how come when i come to this blog. peoples post's dont automatically show up, i have to click show for all of em
true kman but how many mays in a row has some type of activity taken place been watchin a long time just as yourself has been and over the coarse of the last 10 yrs its been happening on a more regular basis i for one dont beleive on a may 15 start date but i do believe that we should watch and consider it if observations and trends indicates that activity appears to be starting earlier than normal we have had some type of activity every year for the last five yrs in a row if this continues over the next five yrs and we see increases in type and numbers then in the future it may have to be consider weather we like it or not
Post 294. Good one.
Interesting to see how things differ. Look at the ITCZ, for instance. And the train of waves in 05. (not that 05 was a "usual" yr.)
It is still firmly "dry season" here, at 11n61w.
Quoting theFatherofNature:
how come when i come to this blog. peoples post's dont automatically show up, i have to click show for all of em


On the right hand side above the first comment it says "Filter". Click the drop down box next to it and select "Show All" to show all comments.
Quoting JRRP:
2005

2009

the ITCZ is too south for this time of the year


I was jsut looking at the same thing. The ITCZ is really far south for May
The ITCZ was also pretty far south in 2004:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


On the right hand side above the first comment it says "Filter". Click the drop down box next to it and select "Show All" to show all comments.


Thank you
Quoting Weather456:


I was jsut looking at the same thing. The ITCZ is really far south for May
if it stays low 456 i would figure anything coming up off ITCZ will ride low putting the windwards/leewards at a higher risk imo this season
Quoting Drakoen:
The ITCZ was also pretty far south in 2004:


And that didn't stop Ivan- Link
The subtropical ridge is excerting a northward push of the ITCZ. But its may, we have a lomng way to go until August and September and tropical patterns are dynamic.
yep things can and will change
looking at whats coming in from the west, somehow I have a feeling that this is going to be a long stormy night again.
looking at whats coming in from the west, somehow I have a feeling that this is going to be a long stormy night again

I live in Oldsmar and it just got real dark and windy. Can someone tell me what is causing storms to come in from the GOM at dinner time without the influences of a cold front? This is very unusual.
I think this might be what they call the tail end of a fish storm
Quoting kmanislander:
In the last 144 years ( since 1865 ) there have only been 21 May storms, for an average of one every 6.86 years.
Weather services monitor year round for storms of any kind, so it is more a matter of public awareness. One tropical storm every 7 years is frequent enough, that the public should begin their awareness (and preparations) in May.

Oops ... 7
Thanx for the Survey responses.

Interesting .

I doubt we will get published,but hey.

Its the thought that counts.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
looking at whats coming in from the west, somehow I have a feeling that this is going to be a long stormy night again

I live in Oldsmar and it just got real dark and windy. Can someone tell me what is causing storms to come in from the GOM at dinner time without the influences of a cold front? This is very unusual.


Is it because it was almost 90 and the ground is stil wet from all the rain
Quoting Patrap:
Thanx for the Survey responses.

Interesting .

I doubt we will get published,but hey.

Its the thought that counts.


What--- no graphs and charts ? :-)

Looks like the GOM stuff is starting to fall apart a bit.

OsGss, problem is somehow those of us in broward county seem to get slammed no matter whether its from the GOM or from the Atlantic side.
Okay an ITCZ in a southern location combined with a lower than average Cape Verde season, mixed in with Caribbean temps that are getting hotter and hotter. That sounds like a bad mix, that and the location for the Bermuda High.
Albeit, St Pete has some incoming soon.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Okay an ITCZ in a southern location combined with a lower than average Cape Verde season, mixed in with Caribbean temps that are getting hotter and hotter. That sounds like a bad mix, that and the location for the Bermuda High.


Yup, developments closer to home and threatening the coast will be the primary concern this season.
Levi, just how much more do you want me to crawl back into my cave where I was hibernating for most of this year?
Quoting Ossqss:
Albeit, St Pete has some incoming soon.



Do those storms have any threat for producing tornadoes?
Quoting Ossqss:


What--- no graphs and charts ? :-)

Looks like the GOM stuff is starting to fall apart a bit.

its called sunset these storms are driven by daytime heat take away the heat the storms disappear
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, just how much more do you want me to crawl back into my cave where I was hibernating for most of this year?


All the way man all the way!! Lol jk.....at least this year won't have above average numbers. Florida is at substantial risk every year anyway as it is, but there just might be more storms crawling around too close for comfort this year.
Quoting Ossqss:

Looks like the GOM stuff is starting to fall apart a bit.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its called sunset these storms are driven by daytime heat take away the heat the storms disappear


That's true for the ones over the land when they're only caused by afternoon heating, but not the ones over the gulf. Water does not warm and cool with the rise and fall of the sun. It takes much longer than that to change the temperature of the ocean. Those t-storms over the GOM are being caused by a shortwave passing through the southern states enhancing upward motion.
I see we have 91L off the coast of the carolinas. Kind of unusual to see a disturbance that has the possibility to become TD 1 before the official start of hurricane season. It doesn't fully fit the criteria to become a TD. It does have rotation and even has a few rain bands and it is somewhat close to the gulf stream.It is currently in marginal water temperature(somewhere between 78-81 degrees) but it needs more convection. However, it is moving towards the Gulf stream so that should fire up the convection.
take the heat away, heck then explain to me why we get pounded on at night then.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
take the heat away, heck then explain to me why we get pounded on at night then.


Well they don't always go away right away when you take away afternoon heat. Thunderstorms in the Great Plains take nearly all night to dissipate, and mesoscale convective complexes can last even longer. It also depends on how much upper-air support, moisture, and vertical motion they have to work with.
Do not have any radar that tells me if there is a hook echo on any of those storms, only see a small bit of purple on one cell that's offshore. Other than that one, just a lot of severe looking storms.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Do not have any radar that tells me if there is a hook echo on any of those storms, only see a small bit of purple on one cell that's offshore. Other than that one, just a lot of severe looking storms.


Thanks.
Quoting Levi32:


All the way man all the way!! Lol jk.....at least this year won't have above average numbers. Florida is at substantial risk every year anyway as it is, but there just might be more storms crawling around too close for comfort this year.


That means that South Florida Grocery stores are going to be nuts when all those naysayers see the Chattanooga-like train of storms heading this way. Great....
TDWR High-Resolution Radar out of Tampa not showing any rotation with these storms. There is not enough shear to induce rotating supercells.

Don't see anything on this loop aside from intermittent small hail.

Levi I distinctly remember telling one such member last year that I would be glad to tie them to a cash register at Wal-Mart when the first hurricane watch or warning goes up.
Quoting Ossqss:
Don't see anything on this loop aside from intermittent small hail.



That line means simply that its going to be a night without power possibly.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi I distinctly remember telling one such member last year that I would be glad to tie them to a cash register at Wal-Mart when the first hurricane watch or warning goes up.


Lol, what torture.
The storms just went poof as they came ashore here in northern pinellas county. We had a nice temperature drop, gusty winds, and 12 drops of drizzle.
well I had hail, heavy rain and heavy wind about 3:45 this afternoon.
sky looked like a giant purple Barney The dinosaur outside.
Storms were pretty wild rolling in..

ENSO update (i know I'm a day late)

region 1,2 = .3
region 3 = .4
region 3,4 = .5
region 4 = .5

That's el niño conditions. We will need a 3 month average at .5 or above in region 3,4 for it to be offical el niño conditions. That could be 6-8 weeks away. It looks like this last cool spell won't be considered a la niña event, most likey it will come up 1 month short of the 5 month minimum at -.5 or below.
looks like the GOM line will be coming onshore in my area after sunset...could make for some stronger storms as the easterly flow/landbreeze boundry tries to move offshore!!!!...
Quoting Skyepony:
Storms were pretty wild rolling in..

ENSO update (i know I'm a day late)

region 1,2 = .3
region 3 = .4
region 3,4 = .5
region 4 = .5

That's el niño conditions. We will need a 3 month average at .5 or above in region 3,4 for it to be offical el niño conditions. That could be 6-8 weeks away. It looks like this last cool spell won't be considered a la niña event, most likey it will come up 1 month short of the 5 month minimum at -.5 or below.

well that means between the line thats to my nw and the line that is coming onshore on the west coast. Going to make for a nice light show, and alot of booming headaches. Any clue what our morning will be like tomorrow morning?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its called sunset these storms are driven by daytime heat take away the heat the storms disappear
Those storms aren't dependent on heat. Frontal showers and thunderstorms are often strongest in the early morning hours at the time of lowest heat. They are weakening now slightly bc they left the warmer waters of the central gulf, and are now in the cooler offshore waters.
Problem is there is no frontal boundary around, at least that I know of. These storms almost seem to be acting as the "tail" of 91L the way they are moving in as if they are attached to something. Earlier in the day we had sea breeze storms, now tonight we have GOM storms coming in.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
well that means between the line thats to my nw and the line that is coming onshore on the west coast. Going to make for a nice light show, and alot of booming headaches. Any clue what our morning will be like tomorrow morning?


I don't think it will be too bad. The atmosphere will be slightly more stable over Florida tomorrow as the shortwave trough moves out, and you might get a break from the more squall storms before the next front moves in, but I don't think you'll escape afternoon-heating t-storms.
Cool image of Gulf coast and Atlantic seabreeze and thunderstorm lines converging over Georgia with the seabreezes meeting like a zipper:

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Problem is there is no frontal boundary around, at least that I know of. These storms almost seem to be acting as the "tail" of 91L the way they are moving in as if they are attached to something. Earlier in the day we had sea breeze storms, now tonight we have GOM storms coming in.


It's because of an upper shortwave trough moving across the southern states enhancing vertical motion. You can see it here.
RE: 344. DestinJeff

"Impressive"
Be back later.
Quoting DestinJeff:
and now some "Typical Posts Seen on the Blog: 2009 Edition"

"looks like this season is shaping up to be a bust already"

"CSU is going to have to lower their forecast at this rate"

"I just saw a cloud. Chances?"

"That's not the center. That's just a burst of convection on the east side due to windshear"

"hostile / favorable"

"looks like an early start to the CV season"

"just my two cents, but..."

"IMHO"

"The (pick your model) has been pretty inconsistent thus far, so I'll have to wait til the 06Z output to put any stock into its current solution"

"How do I get on the map, Orca?"

"Email Zoomiami"

"I'm supposed to go to Key West/Bahamas/Jamaica/etc....guess those plans are ruined."

"NHC sure is being conservative/aggressive"

and many, many more.


Add all the talk about people asking Patrap where the best place to buy supplies is AFTER he has posted all the information on Hurricane Preparation.
and you will continue to get because of your in depth knowledge and trust that a lot of the bloggers here have in your insight.
Even I can say that I have had said that
Can someone tell me what the divergence off of the Bahamas is?
344-

"The XTRP model has it going right over me!!"
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
and you will continue to get because of your in depth knowledge and trust that a lot of the bloggers here have in your insight.

I think the point is that his blog says EXACTLY his take on a system......It's like reading a book and asking the author what the story was about..
Hi All, Storms rolled threw z-hills Fl. Little wind and rain but great veiwing of the rolling clouds.
Death toll from Aila up to 212, 500+ still missing.
Where does it say on NOAA that there is a 91L?
Isn't there a 800pm update for the tropical weather outlook?
wow how could this blog go dead all of a sudden?
Supper
Quoting tropicfreak:
Isn't there a 800pm update for the tropical weather outlook?


if they don't think its going to develop then no
Quoting cg2916:
Where does it say on NOAA that there is a 91L?
Link<
Quoting severstorm:
Supper
what time zone are you in? here it is 8:11.
its 2:16 at the U.S. Island of Midway.
Quoting StormW:


Here's one I get a lot on my blog..."StormW, I just read your post. What's your take on the system.
you should say i have no idea

lol
Eastern. But that dont matter. sometimes its 9 or later.
Jack Beven, NHC Forecaster, is on the Barometer Bob Show now...
Hail, Wind and Damage report from Miami Dade County:

05/26/2009 0253 PM

Kendale lakes, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by public.


Public reported pea sized hail Kendall and 157ave




05/26/2009 0255 PM

Kendale lakes, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50.00 mph, reported by trained spotter.


Spotter reported 50 mph wind gusts SW 50 St and SW 110
Ave




05/26/2009 0255 PM

Kendale lakes, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Spotter reported pea sized hail Miller Rd and 137 Ave




05/26/2009 0300 PM

Hialeah, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


Nickle to quarter sized hail reported by public 1881 west
72nd place




05/26/2009 0300 PM

5 miles W of Coral Gables, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.


2 to 3 inch diameter branches broken in 52 mph measured
wind gusts




05/26/2009 0320 PM

3 miles NW of Hialeah, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Spotter reported pea sized hail Palmetto and I-75




05/25/2009 0345 PM

5 miles NW of Pennsuco, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported Mobile homes damaged 5 miles northwest of
Pennsuco, between Okeechobee Road and krome Avenue
supper! evening coffee and snack now for me
post 357...My God Astro!!!! Where did you see that? It's just awful...
Aila toll is not 212,500 it's around 200.
Probably meant well, but it looked deceiving the way you posted it. My sister just left Dhaka where she works last Friday and went back to England where she stays for 2 weeks and then goes back to Bangladesh again. 500,000 people are displaced.
Vortex95, How much rain you get in the last week?
Hi Keeper, I keep later hours at the job sometimes
+4 inches since last week began.
Your in south fl? I've had about 10.5 here. Zephyrhills
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Can someone tell me what the divergence off of the Bahamas is?


It's upper-level diffluence being caused by the weak upper high southeast of 91L tearing off a stream of air from the sub-tropical jet. Right where this tear happens the air is spreading out very fast so air from below has to rise to replace it, resulting in clouds and precipitation.

Probibly didn't help that surge was forecast a full meter lower than what occured.
Quoting tropicfreak:
I see we have 91L off the coast of the carolinas. Kind of unusual to see a disturbance that has the possibility to become TD 1 before the official start of hurricane season. It doesn't fully fit the criteria to become a TD. It does have rotation and even has a few rain bands and it is somewhat close to the gulf stream.It is currently in marginal water temperature(somewhere between 78-81 degrees) but it needs more convection. However, it is moving towards the Gulf stream so that should fire up the convection.


We had 90L at 'red alert' on Saturday Morning. I thought for sure that was going to be Ana and IMO it most likely was.
WTH is Barometer Bob on Tuesday night???

Gotcha...thanks.

another one of my dumb questions...i have a whole bunch of stuff in our cabinet from hurricane season last year - canned things, water, etc. It's been in the garage - nothing was opened. Should i toss it and get new stuff or just trust that the canned things (the expiration is okay) are okay after being in the garage?
384. Nikko
Hey we got a mini-tornado in Sunrise FL this afternoon...

When I came from lunch I noticed these menacing clouds.


It was getting worse


Then it became really bad, the rain was falling horizontally from the north to the south. The light goes off, as with phone an internet.



The was yelling. The most scary was that after a while, the rain started to fall but this time almost horizontally in the OPPOSITE direction!

We got no internet and no phone for the rest of the day... no damage on the building, just the roads were impassable with debris of palm trees...

Everyone at the office agreed that it was for 10 minutes we got 'hurricaine' conditions...
Presslord, Chiklit:
I meant not to put a comma, but a semicolon. The death toll is 212, and 500+ people are still missing. The information can be found on Wikipedia. Link
91L on life support
Astrohurricane: I knew what you were saying, just wanted to clarify.
Looks like a soaking for the Outer Banks is all 91L is going to bring.
Quoting Drakoen:
91L on life support

\

Drak, is the northern side starting to tap the stream?
Quoting Nikko:
Hey we got a mini-tornado in Sunrise FL this afternoon...

When I came from lunch I noticed these menacing clouds.


It was getting worse


Then it became really bad, the rain was falling horizontally from the north to the south. The light goes off, as with phone an internet.



The was yelling. The most scary was that after a while, the rain started to fall but this time almost horizontally in the OPPOSITE direction!

We got no internet and no phone for the rest of the day... no damage on the building, just the roads were impassable with debris of palm trees...

Everyone at the office agreed that it was for 10 minutes we got 'hurricaine' conditions...



Great Pic!!
Quoting Ossqss:

\

Drak, is the norther side starting to tap the stream?


The Gulf Stream is a bit closer to the coast.
Quoting Drakoen:


The Gulf Stream is a bit closer to the coast.


Perhaps TAPS is actually appropriate ?
I don't think the gulf stream is going to help 91L much. The upper-level support is just not there, and the system is moving into higher and higher shear.
Recon flight will likely cancel at this rate.
91L
91L is RIP
Quoting Drakoen:
Recon flight will likely cancel at this rate.


IMO the diurnal maximum wont help it. 91L is completely void of any deep convection and will probably stay that way for a while.

Back for a bit

So, 91L on life support eh ?

Other than pockets of low shear the environment out there is still very hostile, whether it be in the upper levels or at the surface.

No May storms this year
377. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


It's upper-level diffluence being caused by ..... resulting in clouds and precipitation.


... I am under the diffluence again!
and I would MUCH rather be under the Influnce!

Too much rain, lightning and now Mosquitos.

Ah, life in paradise....

CRS
Hi CRS

It looks like I underestimated the number of days of heavy rain for you LOL
Yep
Just tooo much Diffluence!
Anyone see press coverage of Cyclone Aila?
I only discovered it here. It is a human-global concern. It is possible 200 people died and 200,000 left homeless.
I'm often disappointed in the press (our western press) that fails to give much time or space to "smaller" international disasters.
Hurricane Season is Over
Pittsburgh in Four
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Hurricane Season is Over
Pittsburgh in Four


Dam right their season is over LOL.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
377. Levi32


... I am under the diffluence again!
and I would MUCH rather be under the Influnce!

Too much rain, lightning and now Mosquitos.

Ah, life in paradise....

CRS


Too much sun, blue skies, and it's not mosquito season yet here in Alaska! ;)

Now that's life in paradise....
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Hurricane Season is Over
Pittsburgh in Four


You got that right -- !
tornado vortex located on radar near lubbord texas
lubbock* texas
What will people on the blog do all summer if we have a late starting season like one of these? :)

First tropical storm

1962 August 27
1977 August 30
1983 August 15
1992 August 17
91l is not even an aoi now doa NEXT?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What will people on the blog do all summer if we have a late starting season like one of these? :)

First tropical storm

1962 August 27
1977 August 30
1983 August 15
1992 August 17


They will be calling the season a bust lol.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scal e=0.250&noclutter=0&ID=LBB&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0. 250¢erx=380¢ery=222&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_ma x=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

2 1/2 inch hail with this storm also
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What will people on the blog do all summer if we have a late starting season like one of these? :)

First tropical storm

1962 August 27
1977 August 30
1983 August 15
1992 August 17


and then Andrew comes along and it's a very bad season...
Quoting hahaguy:


They will be calling the season a bust lol.



That would be a mistake.

Anita (1977) At the time, the fastest developing Cat 5 hurricane!

Alicia (1983) The surprising Cat 3 Houston hurricane!

Andrew (1992) Wait was that one important? I haven't heard.....
Don't mention Andrew please.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What will people on the blog do all summer if we have a late starting season like one of these? :)

First tropical storm

1962 August 27
1977 August 30
1983 August 15
1992 August 17


We will all be banned.
Canewarning, we'd just have to raise cain all summer!
Quoting hahaguy:


They will be calling the season a bust lol.
iam waitin for that haha sure as hell someone will say it many times over if nothing forms till the end of june
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam waitin for that haha sure as hell someone will say it many times over if nothing forms till the end of june


Ya same here, I'm just waiting for the first one to say it.
I thought it had been said already.
I haven't seen it yet but wouldn't surprise me if somebody has said it already.
well in 5 days we got 181 days to hear it
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam waitin for that haha sure as hell someone will say it many times over if nothing forms till the end of june



lets see.. we have had a 90, 91 and its not June yet... I think something will happen.. if not, we will offer Toronto as a sacrifice.
sure why not
good evening orca iam sharpen up the harp


quiet next week it seems
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sure why not
good evening orca iam sharpen up the harp


I thought it was a safe offer... no one else wants it :)
true enough
Good evening.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true enough


Umm why do you have a harp.. or should I ask?
What do you know!WesternCaribbean is warming up now look at the map.There is a little speckle of red below Cuba that is 85 degrees.
In case you hadn't seen it yet.
Vista SP2 is ready
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm why do you have a harp.. or should I ask?
lets just say don't come above the water line

lol
434. JRRP
00 GMT 05/27/09 32.0N 74.9W 25 1010 Invest
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lets just say don't come above the water line

lol


Gasp... you got a Harp.... oon?
Hmmmmmm
You leafs fans hold a grudge... thank god for Blackberry to the rescue.. a real Hockey team :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What will people on the blog do all summer if we have a late starting season like one of these? :)

First tropical storm

1962 August 27
1977 August 30
1983 August 15
1992 August 17


More like this for the first 'cane
Cleo 64
Quoting JRRP:
00 GMT 05/27/09 32.0N 74.9W 25 1010 Invest


I think it's redeveloping farther west. Try looking at the long range radar out of Morehead city NC.
TampaSpin has to be doing back flips right about now.
Quoting SouthFMY:
TampaSpin has to be doing back flips right about now.


Rays finally win a game?
Magic won in OT.
.
woohoo!!! go Magic!!
Finally, space station gets to fulfill its science mission



Canadian astronaut Robert Thirsk, right, Russian cosmonaut Roman Romanenko, center, and European Space Agency (ESA) astronaut Frank De Winne of Belgium, left.
Canadian astronaut Robert Thirsk, right, Russian cosmonaut Roman Romanenko, center, and European Space Agency (ESA) astronaut Frank De Winne of Belgium, left.
Sergey Ponomarev / Sergey Ponomarev / AP



WASHINGTON — The International Space Station this week gets a full crew of six scientists and engineers for the first time and, perhaps, starts paying off its $100 billion price tag.

On Wednesday, three astronauts — a Russian, a Canadian and a Belgian — are to ride a Russian Soyuz spacecraft from Kazakhstan up to the nearly completed space station, the first long-term human habitat in space. They're due to arrive Friday morning.

There they will join three others, an American, a Japanese and a second Russian, who're already circling 250 miles above Earth, at 17,000 miles an hour.

The space station, which is as big as a football field, has been occupied continuously since the first three-man crew boarded on Nov. 2, 2000. Only now, however, will it have enough people to operate the multiple scientific laboratories attached to its ungainly frame as well as carry out the many time-consuming tasks needed simply to keep its passengers alive and functioning.
NASA television's public and media channels will carry pre-launch video footage from Baikonur starting at 4:45 a.m. Wednesday, followed by launch coverage beginning at 5:45 a.m. Assuming an on-time liftoff at 6:34:49 a.m., the Soyuz TMA-15 spacecraft should be in orbit by 6:44 a.m. NASA plans to feed a launch day b-roll package at 12 p.m.

You can watch that live video coverage on the web at NASA TV.
Just thought I'd pop in and give some late-night hype to whoever likes to jump on things like this ;)

GFS 384-hour Carribean hurricane:

Quoting Levi32:
Just thought I'd pop in and give some late-night hype to whoever likes to jump on things like this ;)

GFS 384-hour Carribean hurricane:



I've seen it. It's been on the model for a couple of days. The GFS keeps it at 384hours and it hasn't moved foward in time on the model. Thus I believe it's a ghost storm as of right now.
Yeah....about the only thing I will continue to keep an eye on is if the GFS continues to forecast a lifting north of the subtropical jetstream in 2 weeks.
MJO pulses are expected to be at their peak during during early June. This is congruous with the GFS' forecast of tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean around the same time frame. This is quite reasonable compared to the GFS' forecast las t week, which bombogenesis at the SE gulf between late May and June 5.
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing
Quoting all4hurricanes:
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing

If you didn't notice, the picture was taken on Saturday!

Right now, I give 91L a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD or STD by Friday.
Sorry but It still looks bad today

This was actually Tuesday

This one is today

still pretty sickly
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:

If you didn't notice, the picture was taken on Saturday!

Right now, I give 91L a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD or STD by Friday.


It doesnt have until Friday. It'll be out to sea by then. If 91L cant develop some convection in the next 6 hours then it'll be stripped of its invest status.
Hi all long time huh

so far I'm liking this if the Atlantic 09 season is like this till New Years I'll take it =)

I agree I extremely doubt 91L is going to do anything (by that I mean is it even going to soak down the outerbanks like 90L did for Mississipi, Louisana, Alabama, and Florida?)
It's dead.
458. IKE
Yeah 91L looks almost naked. Not sure there's much left of it.
i know there is not much to it but look at the spin on my radar
so far I'm liking this if the Atlantic 09 season is like this till New Years I'll take it =)

The Hurricane season has not even yet officially started and we usually do not see our first named storm until mid to late June.

Do not base on what has happened so far as an expectation for the rest of the year.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
91L looks dry unless it get some convection soon this thing won't form at all

kind of depressing


What did u expect its still May and its not very favorable for developement right now

invest should pick up alittle today as it moves over the gulf stream. happy weather
Quoting DestinJeff:


"xtrp has it headed right over my house. it has been dennis in 05 that we had anything close, so i feel like we ARE do"


xtrap means nothing right now it is expected to curve out to sea
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet
468. IKE
Quoting ChrisDcane:
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet


Link


Sickly...........

Quoting IKE:


Link


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy
Quoting ChrisDcane:


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does
471. MahFL
The US cable news stations are very bad at reporting World news, unless its Isreal.
Also the fact that a cat1 cyclone can cause so many deaths shows you the people live in a flat area and have no advanced warning and/or places to shelter, i.e. its a 3rd world county.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does

ok then "MY BAD" just rememmber it starts in the NHC and it ends with the NHC.
GO MAGIC
Morning...
476. IKE
Quoting ChrisDcane:


WOW IKE Thats navy if u know how to read I said NHC not Navy


I know what you said and yes, I can read.
we had a cat 1 about 15 yrs ago come ashore down near south melbourne e cent. fl. my buddy said the wood frame house he was in could not take another 5 mph without caving in. cat 1's can deliver a punch.
478. IKE
GFDL and HWRF haven't run on 91L in awhile. From the looks of it, it could be RIP soon.
'mornin' all! :)

The Remote Hurricane Station webcam is currently conducting one of its final tests.

Today, the station is configured exactly as it would be in the field. It is being powered by dual, deep-cycle batteries and the connectivity is being provided by a VerizonWireless broadband card.

So there it is. I have a 5 gig per month limit on the card and by the end of the day, I should have used between 2.5 and 3 gig.

The webcam is back on the birds, and I've added humming bird feeders to the shot.

Have a great day! :)

CycloneOz----
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
7 May 2009

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory


Spanish Version


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Summer.

During April 2009, the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, ending the 2008-09 La Niña. Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive anomalies developed in areas of the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST indices were near zero in all Niño regions, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became positive for the first time since mid-August 2008, reflecting an eastward spread of above-average temperatures near thermocline depth (Fig. 4).

Atmospheric anomalies consistent with La Niña weakened during April, with enhanced convection decreasing over Indonesia, although convection remained suppressed near the International Date Line. Also, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity strongly influenced the atmospheric circulation across the global tropics, and contributed to the periodic fluctuation in the strength of the low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.

A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the remainder of 2009 (Fig. 5). The dynamical models, such as the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), increasingly favor above-average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region, while statistical models predict below- or near-average temperatures. Compared to the statistical models, the dynamical models are more responsive to subsurface temperatures, which have recently increased as positive anomalies have spread eastward. Based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Summer.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 June 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Morning everyone..........91L never really stood a chance.........
In loving memory of those lost May 27, 2007, Jarrell, TX. Rest in peace little ones.
1999, not 2007.
Oz:looks great!!!!
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


NHC does not declare it 91L Navy does


Not true.


From the 2009 National Hurricane Operations Plan:

2.3. DOD Responsibilities. The DOD will:

Initiate, monitor, and update satellite invest areas on the tropical cyclone satellite websites provided by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey, California. TPC/NHC and CPHC will coordinate with JTWC on the initiation of desired invest areas and will provide JTWC numbers for invest areas as required.

Navy's responsibility is to provide the satellite data, NHC initiates the invest.
Good morning,all. No one really expected much out of 91L did they?
This will make you laugh!!!!,something to do until TC season offically starts,Squirrel fishing!!!,lolLink
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the remainder of 2009

The majority of model forecasts are statistacal & don't look at the heat & the depth that runs in the water. Scroll over T-depth anomily here.


The lesser numbered dynamical models that take all the observations into consideration are screaming El NiNo comith.


This past week we also hit the +.5 threashold. 6 more weeks folling this trend & we are in an offical El Nino. Good chance July's monthly (I think the 9th) will declare we are in offical El Nino.
492. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,all. No one really expected much out of 91L did they?


I didn't.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
493. IKE
Quoting ChrisDcane:
The NHC hasn't even declared it a "91L" yet


Did you ever look at their website?
leftovers~ He must be talking about Erin. Most wood frames here made it through worse in 2004. Huricanes sound way scarier from in a wood frame.
495. IKE
496. IKE
NEW BLOG!
The final test of the live webcam and remote hurricane weather station is progressing nicely. The test will end at approximately 8 PM MDT...so you still have time to see the birds, how fast they move...and how this system captures it all.

The system has been stable all day long with only a small and expected hiccup early on this morning.

Since then, we've had uninterrupted streaming of live video with amazing frame rates [29.97 max - 29.89 avg.]

It has been a pleasure putting this system together for you all.

When it fires back up, it will be in an area projected for a hurricane landfall.

CycloneOz---