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CSU’s Latest Hurricane Outlook: Steady As She Goes

By: Bob Henson 7:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2016

There were no major adjustments in the August update to the 2016 CSU Atlantic hurricane outlook, issued on Thursday by Colorado State University. These outlooks are produced by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who worked closely with CSU’s Dr. William Gray for many years prior to Dr. Gray’s passing in April. In the updated outlook, CSU projects a total of 15 named storms this year, including the four that developed before August 1 (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storms Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle) as well as this week’s Hurricane Earl. The outlook also calls for a seasonal total of 6 hurricanes (including Alex and Earl) and 2 major hurricanes. These numbers are slightly above the long-term annual average, although CSU expects the rest of the season to produce near-normal activity. The predicted numbers of hurricane days and major hurricane days for 2016 as a whole were nudged upward slightly (from 21 to 23 and from 4 to 5, respectively).

In addition to these single-number forecasts, the CSU outlook includes uncertainty brackets similar to those used in NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks. For example, CSU assigns two-thirds odds that the number of named storms developing after August 1, including Earl, will range betwen 8.7 and 13.3, or one standard deviation within the single-number prediction of 11.


Figure 1. Forecasts/hindcasts for the amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) ocurring after August 1 (magenta line) compared to the actual number (blue line). The statistical scheme used by CSU for its August outlooks was updated in 2012, so the pre-2012 forecasts shown here are actually “hindcasts,” generated as if the current statistical tools had been in place then. The year-to-year ups and downs in ACE values are well predicted by this model, resulting in a strong correlation between observed and predicted values of 0.86. However, the ACE values for the last decade are generally overpredicted. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, this may be related to an increasing trend in July SSTs over the northeast subtropical Atlantic since the late 1970s. July SSTs in this region is one of the predictors used in creating the August outlook. Warmer SSTs here in July tend to be correlated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity, but a long-term warming trend may affect the predictive value, according to Klotzbach. Image credit: Courtesy Phil Klotzbach, CSU.

Mixed signals remain
There is still considerable uncertainty shrouding how the rest of the season will unfold, according to CSU. The variables in play include the potential development of La Niña (still a question mark in its timing and strength), as well as the unorthodox North Atlantic pattern now in place. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely warm across the western Atlantic, coupled with cooler-than-average SSTs in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and the far North Atlantic. This is roughly consistent with the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as tracked by an AMO index developed by Klotzbach and Gray. This index has been in negative territory since late 2014, although it crept close to the zero line in July 2016, noted Klotzbach in a tweet on Wednesday. Other signals are also in some conflict: for example, upper-level wind shear has been fairly low, which favors tropical cyclone development, but the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic has been more stable than usual over the last several months, which works against development.

CSU found that the closest analog years for hurricane-related conditions observed this past June and July are 1958, 1959, 1966, 1978, 1992, and 1998. These years produced anywhere from 7 to 14 named storms, 4 to 10 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, reflecting the wide range of outcomes still possible.


Figure 2. Departures from seasonally averaged sea surface temperature (SST, shown in degrees C) in the Atlantic Ocean for the last week of July 2016. SSTs were well above average over large parts of the western Atlantic adjoining North and South America, as well as across the deep tropics of the North Atlantic that serve as the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. Below-average SSTs prevailed over most of the northeast Atlantic subtropics and midlatitudes. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

Are we ready for a major hurricane?
CSU is giving 51 percent odds that a major hurricane will strike somewhere along the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast--which is a quite unsettling prospect, given that a major landfall (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has not occurred in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Moreover, the Gulf of Mexico has not seen a hurricane outside of the Bay of Campeche since Ingrid in 2013, and Florida has not experienced a landfalling hurricane of any strength since Wilma. All three of these “droughts” are unprecedented in length, a point whose consequences are analyzed in an excellent roundup on Thursday by Capital Weather Gang.

See our posts from May 27 and June 1 for more background on the outlooks issued this spring by CSU and other groups. NOAA will be updating its seasonal hurricane outlook on Thursday, August 11, and CSU will be issuing 14-day outlooks every two weeks from now through October. Note that the CSU outlooks are now linked from a new website, tropical.colostate.edu.



Figure 3. Number of named storms in the Atlantic basin predicted for the 2016 season by various forecast groups. Bottom axis shows the name of each group and the time frame when its forecast was issued (or updated). The zone between the orange and red horizontal lines indicates the number of named storms one might expect in a typical year. Image credit: Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University.

A new tool for comparing and contrasting seasonal outlooks
At last, we have a one-stop virtual shop for evaluating how the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued by an increasing number of entities stack up against each other. CSU’s Phil Klotzbach teamed up with Louis-Philippe Caron at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center in Spain to produce the new site, which was designed by Iskiam Jara and supported by the Ireland-based insurance firm XL Catlin. The site formally debuted on Thursday with a CSU press release.

Colorful graphics depict each forecast and whether it was issued only as a single number or includes a probabilistic range. The site allows you to toggle between the outlooks for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. At the bottom of the main forecast page, you’ll find blurbs on each of the 17 organizations that have released seasonal hurricane outlooks, including The Weather Company. Klotzbach is hoping to compile forecasts issued in past years by the various groups, which would make the site a true treasure trove for researchers and weather enthusiasts.

For a full update on current tropical activity, including the potential for multi-day heavy rains along the eastern Gulf Coast associated with a near-shore disturbance, see this morning’s post from Jeff Masters. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. hydrus
Quoting 999. Grothar:

There doesn't seem to be much to move the Gulf system for quite a while. None of the models move it except for a little meandering.






1002. MahFL
Quoting 981. Autistic2:

What happened to the low over NE FL?


It's in Georgia now :
Quoting 1000. Grothar:




Lol there nothing out there so what are they seeing there forecast is going to bust
1004. mfcmom
Quoting 1000. Grothar:


Link please?
1005. Grothar
Quoting 1003. thetwilightzone:



Lol there nothing out there so what are they seeing there forecast is going to bust


It reads "area of concern" not area of doom Twil. If the system stays around for as long as expected, there still might be some very heavy rains. It does not necessarily even have to form into a depression for that to happen.

1006. Grothar
Quoting 1004. mfcmom:

Link please?


Link
1007. Grothar
Quoting 1005. Grothar:



It reads "area of concern" not area of doom Twil. If the system stays around for as long as expected, there still might be some very heavy rains. It does not necessarily even have to form into a depression for that to happen.




I hope that happens - my grass is tinder dry right now....grass shouldn't crunch...

I think the next 3 weeks will be a big let down for some of the more aggressive wanna-casters here....people need to be patient...
Quoting 1003. thetwilightzone:



Lol there nothing out there so what are they seeing there forecast is going to bust
Thanks for the Morning Laugh, lol.
1011. 19N81W
I think the outlook is wrong
just an opinion
1012. 19N81W
thats a heavy steady rain sure would be nice.......we had some the other day but miss the all day and multi day events they have been limited to hours recently
good for west florida
Quoting 998. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like most of the west coast of Florida will be wet today. We're even getting storms forming offshore down here in S.W. Florida. It also looks like we still have a mid level circulation out in the GOM just off shore.

1013. MahFL
Quoting 1000. Grothar:




Accuweather must be looking at a different shear map from me :

Very overcast and still (little to no wind) here in Pt. St. Lucie. Very quiet too...even my" favorite" mockingbird that never seems to shut up is not making a sound. Even my cat is anxious and following me around like like a 2 year old! Maybe our barometric pressure down a bit? Anyhow, we will probably have some good afternoon thunderstorms today. Great day to be home relaxing. Looks like that mess up in the panhandle is going to stick around for a while and potentially send some beneficial rains our way. You all stay safe up there and monitor the flooding reports. Hugs and prayers to all.
1015. gator23
Quoting 1003. thetwilightzone:



Lol there nothing out there so what are they seeing there forecast is going to bust


There is "something" out there. And it can develop. So they are accurate in saying "potential tropical development". We can argue likelihood and semantics but let's not.
1016. 19N81W
isn't that what forecasting weather is?:)
Quoting 1015. gator23:



There is "something" out there. And it can develop. So they are accurate in saying "potential tropical development". We can argue likelihood and semantics but let's not.
Quoting 1015. gator23:



There is "something" out there. And it can develop. So they are accurate in saying "potential tropical development". We can argue likelihood and semantics but let's not.
1017. LargoFl
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH FRIDAY...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COMBINED
WITH INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS SITUATED WEST OF
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIRMASS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY...THOUGH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME.

.ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE STATE HAVE OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
EXIST...RUNOFF FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OR TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN BOTH RURAL AND
URBAN FLOODING.

.IMPACTS...
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA...OR IF HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULT
IN HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD. ALSO...STORM DRAINS
AND DITCHES MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE
EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING AND ROAD PONDING.

MINOR FLOODING OF SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MORE
LIKELY WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND FUTURE WARNINGS. KNOW
WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED AND YOU LIVE NEAR A CREEK OR
RIVER.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB UNDER
CURRENT WEATHER TO ACCESS THE LATEST RIVER STAGE AND
PRECIPITATION INFORMATION.

$$
1018. gator23
Quoting 1016. 19N81W:

isn't that what forecasting weather is?:)



Forecasting is a prediction or an estimate based on available facts. I don't want to ague over what the facts are. Bottom line. We have a vigorous tropical disturbance, over warm water, with a robust MLC. Yes this can develop. That is all that the graphic is displaying.
big oil rig washes ashore scottish coastline. its going to take some bucks to clean this one up
Dark and cloudy in Sarasota this morning. No rain yet, but it sure looks like it could dump at any minute. I won't even risk going outside, since the mosquitoes seem to have set up a buffet line in my yard and are just waiting for me to make an appearance. I already got eaten alive by no-see-ums this weekend, so I'm already miserable.
This is probably a case of it not mattering whether a tropical low forms as much as how much rain the areas affected will get. A foot of rain possible through the week.

Too bad Michael Phelps was born in 1985 instead of 2085, where his swimming skills could actually be put into daily use.
What is that off the east coast of Florida?
Quoting 995. Skyepony:


Three out of four models have some very heavy rains at times for your area. The models have been all over the place with this storm wandering around the Southeast so it's not with alot of confidence. Models also show small areas of very heavy rain. Like a shift here 50 miles one way or the other could leave you very water logged or not.. The red/orange there could be ridiculous rain.


The surge forecast for Panama Beach has come up some, with it now about 8inches above Highest Astrological Tide or 2 1/2 feet above a normal low tide (MLLW). It could come up a little more, it has trended that way.


It usually doesn't hurt to prepare some, especially with possible three more days with chances for heavy rain. Parts of your area have had 5-6 inches of rain already..

I think there is a correlation of numerous heavy rain events here in the mid-atlantic and hurricanes running up the coast.It has happened way to many times for it to be a coincidence.2014 was one of the wettest years in the mid-atlantic and we had Arthur that barely missed us (it caused 50+mph gust on July 4th here in D.C).1996 was also a wet year and we had Bertha and Fran.
Quoting 1013. MahFL:



Accuweather must be looking at a different shear map from me :



Where did you get this shear map? Link please? Better than the map I use, which does not have the colors.
Quoting 1026. leofarnsworth:


Where did you get this shear map? Link please? Better than the map I use, which does not have the colors.



It's from UW-Madison

[Link]
Quoting 1025. washingtonian115:

I think there is a correlation of numerous heavy rain events here in the mid-atlantic and hurricanes running up the coast.It has happened way to many times for it to be a coincidence.2014 was one of the wettest years in the mid-atlantic and we had Arthur that barely missed us (it caused 50+mph gust on July 4th here in D.C).1996 was also a wet year and we had Bertha and Fran.


How rainy was it in 1999?

Similar to 1996, we got multiple tropical systems to make landfall (Arthur, Dennis, Floyd)
1 Day radar estimates


Previous day estimates
So is this season going to be above average or not? August might be one of the most least active months in a while
1031. Patrap
Sea Surface temperature anomaly (vs mean 1971-2000) - Climate Reanalyzer.

Red team says : checkmate ?
1033. Patrap
Silly Basin Scale HWRF keeps indicating something will develop in the "Caribbean Dead Zone"



Quoting 1005. Grothar:



It reads "area of concern" not area of doom Twil. If the system stays around for as long as expected, there still might be some very heavy rains. It does not necessarily even have to form into a depression for that to happen.


The longer we wait for all that rain to start in the forecast period the more nervous I'm getting.... 16 inches spread over a week is a lot but not catastrophic (at least where we are on the NW FL Coast). If the forecast holds and we are down to the last couple of days without any sig precip... la vache! (so, it looks like 'Twil' is the new moniker?)
Quoting 1028. win1gamegiantsplease:



How rainy was it in 1999?

Similar to 1996, we got multiple tropical systems to make landfall (Arthur, Dennis, Floyd)
My memory gets foggy as the years go on but I do remember some good rains in the spring and early summer.
Quoting 1021. flbeachgirl:

Dark and cloudy in Sarasota this morning. No rain yet, but it sure looks like it could dump at any minute. I won't even risk going outside, since the mosquitoes seem to have set up a buffet line in my yard and are just waiting for me to make an appearance. I already got eaten alive by no-see-ums this weekend, so I'm already miserable.


Lakewood Ranch is getting water for buckets!!
Quoting 1025. washingtonian115:

I think there is a correlation of numerous heavy rain events here in the mid-atlantic and hurricanes running up the coast.It has happened way to many times for it to be a coincidence.2014 was one of the wettest years in the mid-atlantic and we had Arthur that barely missed us (it caused 50+mph gust on July 4th here in D.C).1996 was also a wet year and we had Bertha and Fran.

I was also in DC for "Arthur" what we got was actually the front that swept Arthur out to sea, although Arthur certainly supplied some moisture that led into those storms
Quoting 1024. hurricanewatcher61:

What is that off the east coast of Florida?
The Atlantic Ocean I believe ;)
Here's some fun weather related trivia!
Does anyone know which are the only type of bee's that will go out in the rain?
Quoting 1034. nrtiwlnvragn:

Silly Basin Scale HWRF keeps indicating something will develop in the "Caribbean Dead Zone"




Where does it come from?
Quoting 1024. hurricanewatcher61:

What is that off the east coast of Florida?

A blow up of showers between the southeast low and the wave east of the Bahamas. Maybe helped along by that spot of low shear showing up on the shear map over part of the Bahamas. That run of GEOS-5 had the near Bahama blob getting anemic in it's final day before poofing into South Carolina. But again it's been all over the place about that storm.

Looking at this loop the low has moved quick this morning, nearly into Central Georgia already. Unless a new low forms under the mid-level left along the Northern Gulf & drifts west..that GEOS-5/ecmwf/cmc run is all wrong & the outlier gfs comes closest to getting this right.
Quoting 1041. washingtonian115:

Where does it come from?


Appears from the area currently around 35W.
1044. GatorWX
Morning everyone.

Coming down pretty heavy all morning here in Englewood (Charlotte/Sarasota Cnty line). Picked up just over 3" so far since around 0930. Should begin to increase in intensity shortly after a brief lull. Not too much thunder and lightning, nor wind, just the wet stuff.

This has certainly turned into more of a statewide event rather than just a Big Bend concern. Two days ago, we were forecast to pick up just ~2" over 7 days. Since being affected by this system, we're just over 4.5", with more to come. Even the east coast has seen some very beneficial rains. It's been much more widespread than originally forecast, where the Big Bend was potentially in for a major wallop. We'll see how the next day or two unfolds. Seems to want to stick around awhile.
Having trouble posting my usual WU Nexrad, but I recon you all know where to find it. Have a good afternoon!
To go along with the other day's discussion of a Great Lakes storm.. How about in the Hudson Bay? Giving it some long odds but the models are suggesting it..
This looks some what subtropical with the classic 9 shape..992mb

gfs

CMC


Quoting 1040. Llamaluvr:

Here's some fun weather related trivia!
Does anyone know which are the only type of bee's that will go out in the rain?

How about those that decide to build a hive in the corner of your roof?
Quoting 1034. nrtiwlnvragn:

Silly Basin Scale HWRF keeps indicating something will develop in the "Caribbean Dead Zone"






Despite the conditions in most of the Atlantic I'm still keeping an eye on that in the coming days, noticed that feature this morning.
Quoting 996. Grothar:



It's hot, sticky, overcast, rainy and humid. The mosquitoes don't sting anymore, they just pick you up and drop you somewhere else. I think I'll go back to bed. :)

If the mosquitoes are that strong maybe they will soon take up your bed also. You may find yourself sleeping on the floor.
Quoting 1044. GatorWX:

Morning everyone.Having trouble posting my usual WU Nexrad, but I recon you all know where to find it. Have a good afternoon!

Good morning..

Don't forget to remove the s in https.

Had almost a 1/4" overnight and this morning in Melbourne. Rain cleared and the sun is out now.
Quoting 1036. washingtonian115:

My memory gets foggy as the years go on but I do remember some good rains in the spring and early summer.


Mine is only foggy because I was 8 :p
Ok, since you asked...
Quoting 1040. Llamaluvr:

Here's some fun weather related trivia!
Does anyone know which are the only type of bee's that will go out in the rain?

The ones with the yellow jackets!

Get it???!!!
HaHaHa !!!
1052. GatorWX
Quoting 1049. Skyepony:


Good morning..

Don't forget to remove the s in https.

Had almost a 1/4" overnight and this morning in Melbourne. Rain cleared and the sun is out now.


Ah. On my tablet. Pain!

Thanks Skye
Quoting 1034. nrtiwlnvragn:

Silly Basin Scale HWRF keeps indicating something will develop in the "Caribbean Dead Zone"






Is there a link you can send me so I can see the whole run please and thank you
1054. GatorWX
1055. Patrap
1056. Kyon5
Quoting 1053. wunderkidcayman:



Is there a link you can send me so I can see the whole run please and thank you
Link
1057. vis0
.
Mostly overcast this morning with not a lot of precip just some light showers, seems like the worse of the rain totals will stay west of my location in Central Florida over the coming days. Hoping that the big rain to come will mostly stay over the gulf and no one has to deal with major flooding along the gulf.
1059. Patrap
1061. barbamz
August 8th, 2016 | Written by Peter Buxbaum
NTSB Launches Mission to Retrieve El Faro Voyage Data Recorder
Third Mission to Wreckage Launched Friday
The Military Sealift Command’s fleet ocean tug USNS Apache is expected to arrive at the accident site around August 9. ...
Sure doesn't look like august out there. Yall enjoy the lull again.
Any opinions or scientific reasoning from any of the rest of you as to why the National Hurricane Center is not issuing anything regarding the NE Gulf in the Tropical Weather Outlook considering the fact that there's a lot of showers and thunderstorms going on out there? Much concern has existed for years in meteorological circles about sudden development close to the coast without much warning. I realize that they don't want to be alarmist but I can't imagine that there would be zero percent chance of development out there. The system is currently not in the most favorable position, being close the Florida land area to its east. However, as it drifts westward and the upper low near the Bahamas converges its influence with the thunderstorms in the GOM, it seems something could develop...
1064. gator23
Quoting 1055. Patrap:




Can someone keep my honest here. It looks like a new llc is trying to work its way down right there in the corner of the state where the panhandle begins.
1065. Gearsts
1066. MahFL
Quoting 1064. gator23:



Can someone keep my honest here. It looks like a new llc is trying to work its way down right there in the corner of the state where the panhandle begins.


It's called The Big Bend Area.
Quoting 1053. wunderkidcayman:



Is there a link you can send me so I can see the whole run please and thank you

Hi Wunderkid! Are you seeing what I'm seeing with the browns on the Basin HWRF?
1069. gator23
Quoting 1066. MahFL:



It's called The Big Bend Area.

I know but that wasnt specific enough since the big bend can be from Pasco county to Wakulla.
Quoting 1063. XtremeNWFLpanhandle:

Any opinions or scientific reasoning from any of the rest of you as to why the National Hurricane Center is not issuing anything regarding the NE Gulf in the Tropical Weather Outlook considering the fact that there's a lot of showers and thunderstorms going on out there? Much concern has existed for years in meteorological circles about sudden development close to the coast without much warning. I realize that they don't want to be alarmist but I can't imagine that there would be zero percent chance of development out there. The system is currently not in the most favorable position, being close the Florida land area to its east. However, as it drifts westward and the upper low near the Bahamas converges its influence with the thunderstorms in the GOM, it seems something could develop...



Seems to me you could walk the beaches & boardwalks as a town crier.....that'll get the word out to the touristas
1071. gator23
Quoting 1070. KuCommando:




Seems to me you could walk the beaches & boardwalks as a town crier.....that'll get the word out to the touristas

Richard Gray tried that. It didnt work so well "Richard Gray watched in horror as dawn broke on September 18 and people began streaming into the streets, assuming the storm was over when in fact the eye had just arrived. According to his account, Gray ran down to the street and told as many people as he could to find shelter before the second, more lethal side of the storm hit."
Link
1072. Grothar
1073. Tcwx2
I agree I mean they could be right putting chances at 0%, but just in case I would put it upwards of 10%.
Quoting 1063. XtremeNWFLpanhandle:

Any opinions or scientific reasoning from any of the rest of you as to why the National Hurricane Center is not issuing anything regarding the NE Gulf in the Tropical Weather Outlook considering the fact that there's a lot of showers and thunderstorms going on out there? Much concern has existed for years in meteorological circles about sudden development close to the coast without much warning. I realize that they don't want to be alarmist but I can't imagine that there would be zero percent chance of development out there. The system is currently not in the most favorable position, being close the Florida land area to its east. However, as it drifts westward and the upper low near the Bahamas converges its influence with the thunderstorms in the GOM, it seems something could develop...
Mmm
Quoting 1065. Gearsts:



Looks like the PDO is trying to return to its negative state.
Quoting 1005. Grothar:



It reads "area of concern" not area of doom Twil. If the system stays around for as long as expected, there still might be some very heavy rains. It does not necessarily even have to form into a depression for that to happen.




LOL, that would be fun, when the NWS starts forecasting "Areas of Doom". Heh~ It WOULD be a big hit with this crowd.

I have seen over 12 inches of rain drop in South Venice, Florida in the space of 16 hours and the only forecast had been "30% chance of showers". Sometimes it just HAPPENS.
1078. Patrap
The NWS New Orleans/Slidell office has good discussion on the Gom.





Previous discussion... /issued 800 am CDT Monday Aug 8 2016/

.Sounding discussion...

A moisture-laden atmosphere persists over the Gulf Coast with
plenty of instability in place as well. The precipitable water
value continues to waver between 2.25 to 2.50 inches, which is
well above normal for early August. The convective temperature is
in the mid-90s, which alone would promote later thunderstorm
development. However, with the weak area of low pressure over the
northeastern Gulf/Florida, any mid-level vorticity moving over our
area may allow thunderstorms to form earlier in the day.

12z balloon info: no issues with the flight that lasted 112 minutes
reaching a height of 20.4 miles above the ground bursting near
Akers 33 miles downrange from the office.

Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Monday Aug 8 2016/

Short term...
a very active weather pattern continues across the northern Gulf
Coast. On going showers and thunderstorms moving southeast from
Baton Rouge to New Orleans have been gradually weakening in
intensity and slowly diminishing in coverage. Meso models indicate
that this trend will continue over the next few hours leading to
just offshore convection through the first few daylight hours. The
latest local sounding showed a precip water value of 2.5". That
value is right around the record for this time of year based on
spc's sounding climo Page. Looking at the lower and mid level flow
pattern, its quite unusual to have such a high amount of moisture
in the column with northerly winds. The reason appears to be the
combination of Pacific moisture wrapping around a weak upper ridge
centered over Texas and upper low in the western Atlantic. Both
features are funneling in moisture and not expecting that to
change much over the next few days. With the atmosphere so ripe,
daily convection coverage should be quite high. For today,
slightly bumped up rain chances into the 60 to 70% range with
higher pops along the coast. While the hrrr does show
southwesterly movement, thinking that will be more south to
southeast based on more north to northeast winds observed on the
sounding.

The same general weather pattern will hold true again on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Overall coverage should begin to increase as the
week progresses as aforementioned upper low and a surface trough
located along the northern Gulf of Mexico drifts westward and
closer to the forecast area. The European model (ecmwf) is definitely more bullish
with the upper low and qpf. This forecast package is similar to
the previous and the GFS but with a bump in rain chances. Daily
rainfall amounts could be reaching up to 1 to 2 inches with lower
values in northwestern zones and possibly higher along the coast.

Meffer

Long term...
models indicate that the upper low to the east will move overhead
beginning Thursday and remain in place Friday. This will continue
to enhance convective development and likely keep the nighttime
more active than typical for this time of year. An upper trough
moving eastward across the midsection of the country from Saturday
through Monday will aide in keeping rain chances high for the
area. Rainfall amounts through this period of th-su could be of
concern, especially for coastal areas and if its quite wet early
this week. Continued 1-2" daily rainfall amounts may be
conservative Thursday and Friday.

Meffer

Aviation...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites and thunderstorms and rain for sites mainly
south of a line from btr to asd for a short time this morning as
sh/ts will be moving toward the coast and dissipating. Thunderstorms and rain will
suffice for the afternoon as another round of sh/ts should be able
to get going once again.

Marine...

A weak broad sfc low was found just east of Pensacola this morning.
This low along with a maritime high aloft will easily keep the
environment conducive for sh/ts development. A few convergent lines
will also form over the coming days to produce lines of sh/ts and
higher wind speeds. One of these look to form from near the
Mississippi River mouth toward the fla Panhandle by Tuesday and
remain through at least Wednesday. The convective activity
associated with this may cause wind speeds to increase toward 20 to
25 knots. Convective bursts are also occurring frequently with this
system as well. This will cause an increase in winds as well
especially near where these pulses occur. Small craft caution
statements have been posted for today through Tuesday but the
probabilities will be high for an advisory to be issued over the
coming days. Another area of sh/ts will develop inland and move
offshore again this evening. This overall scenario is expected to be
redundant with some strengthening of variables through the end of
the week.

In and around thunderstorms, winds could become quite strong over
the coming days.
1079. LargoFl
1080. Kyon5
Quoting 1075. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like the PDO is trying to return to its negative state.
Yep, here are the PDO values for the past three months:

May 2016: 1.43
June 2016: 0.75
July 2016: 0.18

Link
1081. IDTH
We've had quite the strong PDO going on the pacific but Nino regions 3.4 has had a huge cooling process (probably due to a huge trade surge) and is now starting to reach over towards the west pacific now. The PDO is still quite strong but you can see the far north pacific starting to cool and this will need to be monitored because it could be crucial factor for next season (not thinking that far out ahead, just pointing this out).





1082. Patrap
I see, thanks for the info!
Quoting 1042. Skyepony:


A blow up of showers between the southeast low and the wave east of the Bahamas. Maybe helped along by that spot of low shear showing up on the shear map over part of the Bahamas. That run of GEOS-5 had the near Bahama blob getting anemic in it's final day before poofing into South Carolina. But again it's been all over the place about that storm.

Looking at this loop the low has moved quick this morning, nearly into Central Georgia already. Unless a new low forms under the mid-level left along the Northern Gulf & drifts west..that GEOS-5/ecmwf/cmc run is all wrong & the outlier gfs comes closest to getting this right.
1084. mfcmom
Quoting 1082. Patrap:


What do you think that means for Panama City hon?
1085. Patrap
Its a cauldron of gumbo simmering mojo in the central GOM.

Challenge: run through the 12z GFS centered on the Western Pacific, run through 384 hours and count how many tropical cyclones you see.
1087. Patrap
Quoting 1084. mfcmom:

What do you think that means for Panama City hon?


NWS Tallahassee

Previous discussion [1003 am edt]...

Update...

The previous forecast thinking remains unchanged for today. The
heaviest rainfall today is likely to be across Taylor, Dixie, and
Lafayette counties, although other areas will also see heavy
downpours develop this afternoon. As of 8 am EDT this morning,
measured storm totals since yesterday are as high as 11.17 inches
in southern Lafayette County along Tom Gunter Road. Additional
rainfall of several inches is expected today and flooding concerns
will continue to grow with time. We'll need to watch the
Steinhatchee River closely as heavy rain fell overnight in the
upstream part of the basin in the Mallory Swamp area, and it seems
likely the river will eventually reach flood stage.

Near term [through today]...

The region remains under the influence of a broad, weak area of low
pressure tonight. The latest radar trends show a meso-low currently
slowly moving west-northwest across Suwanee County, near the Hamilton/Madison
County lines at this hour. This has set up a consistent band of
heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms across Taylor, Dixie and
Lafayette counties, where a Flood Watch remains in effect tonight.
Doppler radar currently estimates between 3 and 6 inches of rainfall
accumulation in the past 6 hours across these counties. Radar trends
suggest that pockets of heavy rain will continue to affect these
areas, and eastern portions of The Big Bend this morning, as
widespread convection on the southern periphery of the broad upper
low has developed over coastal waters and is drifting northeastward
at this hour. Additional rainfall totals of two to four inches will
be possible across these areas, which could lead to flooding and
rises in the local river and stream network in the area,
particularly in any embedded thunderstorms where rainfall rates will
be enhanced.

Elsewhere, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop on the western
periphery of the upper low this afternoon. While the flood threat
associated with these storms will be lower than eastern areas
affected by the large rain band, local flooding will possible. Weak
steering flow and high rainfall rates could allow for several
inches of quick rainfall accumulation with these storms.

Tonight, the low is expected to drift westward, allowing moisture to
pivot around the east side of the low and setting western portions
of The Big Bend region up for persistent heavy rainfall and an
increased flooding threat. An expansion of the current Flood Watch
will likely be necessary later today, particularly is model guidance
remains consistent with the evolution of the system and quantitative precipitation forecast
forecasts.

***Summary***

Heavy, persistent rainfall is expected to continue through much
of the day across southeastern portions of The Big Bend, including
Taylor, Dixie and Lafayette counties. The greatest threat for
flooding today exists in these areas. Impacts wise, there is the
potential for Road closures due to flooding in this area. Area
rivers and streams will rise through the day and could pose a
flooding threat later in the day.



Short term [tonight through wednesday]...

Key points

1. Heavy rainfall is expected through the short term across The Big
Bend with the flood threat expanding westward on Tuesday. The
Flood Watch will likely need to be expanded westward in future
forecast issuances.

2. Differences still exist in model solutions of rainfall amounts.
The severity of impacts will be contingent on specific amounts
and locations. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates and more
details regarding impacts as they become available.



Significant differences still exist between models in the short term
in how the models handle the weak low and the resultant rainfall
amounts. GFS weakens the upper level feature, strengthens a piece of
the broader low over northeastern Florida/Atlantic coast tonight,
brings it into southern Georgia Tuesday and weakens it while
strengthening another upper low along the central Gulf Coast. With
the lower level feature, it drags it northward and then absorbs it
into a broader low over the western Florida Panhandle. In
contrast, the ECMWF, meanders the upper closed low over the
northern Gulf Coast with the feature near the western Florida
Panhandle by Wednesday while the low level feature is positioned a
little further northward as it shifts westward. With the European model (ecmwf)
keeping the feature more in the area, it helps to enhance
precipitation over the short term and thus results in higher
rainfall totals as opposed to the GFS that weakens out the system
initially and then brings it north of the cwa, resulting in
rainfall amounts on the lower side. NAM seems a little more
similar to the GFS for the low level feature but isn't quite as
defined with the upper level system for the short term.

Quantitative precipitation forecast...for the short term, the GFS continues to remain lower on quantitative precipitation forecast
values with the highest values confined to the coast, while the
European model (ecmwf) is on the high end. While it also shows the higher values
along the coast, the European model (ecmwf) also spreads the higher values further
inland. Canadian is more similar to the European model (ecmwf) in amounts through
Wednesday. Official forecast is between the lower GFS and higher
European model (ecmwf). The higher quantitative precipitation forecast values remain confined to the Taylor, Dixie,
Lafayette County area tonight and begin to spread slightly
westward late tonight, but the higher values are still confined
close to the coast. While the rain spreads westward on Tuesday,
the higher rainfall totals through Wednesday will remain confined
to The Big Bend and the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle.
Flood Watch will likely need to be expanded westward in a future
forecast update.



Long term [wednesday night through monday]...

Key Point...

1. Heavy rain and flood threat will continue in the long term but
shifts west, mainly west of the Apalachicola River.

The differences in model solutions persists through the long term.
The GFS brings the upper low over Mississippi. The European model (ecmwf) is a little
east of the GFS and stronger and thus once again higher on the
rainfall amounts in the long term. The 00z European model (ecmwf) solution is weaker
though than the previous run so European model (ecmwf) rainfall totals are on the
lower side than what we have seen from the model the past few
days. Again the GFS seems too low with rainfall values while the
European model (ecmwf) is on the high side, so similar to the short term, the long
term rainfall totals are between the two with the highest values
west of the Apalachicola River.
http://www.co.walton.fl.us/CivicAlerts/SingleAlertI tem?alertID=1336

For those in Walton and the west end of Bay county that live in low lying areas, Walton county is setting up some sandbag stations. Locations in link.

Have a good day all!
Today is Ecological Debt Day, interesting concept.....
1090. Patrap
I like using the unenhanced IR loop to see the structure forming better.

1091. mfcmom
Quoting 1087. Patrap:



NWS Tallahassee

Previous discussion [1003 am edt]...

Update...

The previous forecast thinking remains unchanged for today. The
heaviest rainfall today is likely to be across Taylor, Dixie, and
Lafayette counties, although other areas will also see heavy
downpours develop this afternoon. As of 8 am EDT this morning,
measured storm totals since yesterday are as high as 11.17 inches
in southern Lafayette County along Tom Gunter Road. Additional
rainfall of several inches is expected today and flooding concerns
will continue to grow with time. We'll need to watch the
Steinhatchee River closely as heavy rain fell overnight in the
upstream part of the basin in the Mallory Swamp area, and it seems
likely the river will eventually reach flood stage.

Near term [through today]...

The region remains under the influence of a broad, weak area of low
pressure tonight. The latest radar trends show a meso-low currently
slowly moving west-northwest across Suwanee County, near the Hamilton/Madison
County lines at this hour. This has set up a consistent band of
heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms across Taylor, Dixie and
Lafayette counties, where a Flood Watch remains in effect tonight.
Doppler radar currently estimates between 3 and 6 inches of rainfall
accumulation in the past 6 hours across these counties. Radar trends
suggest that pockets of heavy rain will continue to affect these
areas, and eastern portions of The Big Bend this morning, as
widespread convection on the southern periphery of the broad upper
low has developed over coastal waters and is drifting northeastward
at this hour. Additional rainfall totals of two to four inches will
be possible across these areas, which could lead to flooding and
rises in the local river and stream network in the area,
particularly in any embedded thunderstorms where rainfall rates will
be enhanced.

Elsewhere, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop on the western
periphery of the upper low this afternoon. While the flood threat
associated with these storms will be lower than eastern areas
affected by the large rain band, local flooding will possible. Weak
steering flow and high rainfall rates could allow for several
inches of quick rainfall accumulation with these storms.

Tonight, the low is expected to drift westward, allowing moisture to
pivot around the east side of the low and setting western portions
of The Big Bend region up for persistent heavy rainfall and an
increased flooding threat. An expansion of the current Flood Watch
will likely be necessary later today, particularly is model guidance
remains consistent with the evolution of the system and quantitative precipitation forecast
forecasts.

***Summary***

Heavy, persistent rainfall is expected to continue through much
of the day across southeastern portions of The Big Bend, including
Taylor, Dixie and Lafayette counties. The greatest threat for
flooding today exists in these areas. Impacts wise, there is the
potential for Road closures due to flooding in this area. Area
rivers and streams will rise through the day and could pose a
flooding threat later in the day.



Short term [tonight through wednesday]...

Key points

1. Heavy rainfall is expected through the short term across The Big
Bend with the flood threat expanding westward on Tuesday. The
Flood Watch will likely need to be expanded westward in future
forecast issuances.

2. Differences still exist in model solutions of rainfall amounts.
The severity of impacts will be contingent on specific amounts
and locations. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates and more
details regarding impacts as they become available.



Significant differences still exist between models in the short term
in how the models handle the weak low and the resultant rainfall
amounts. GFS weakens the upper level feature, strengthens a piece of
the broader low over northeastern Florida/Atlantic coast tonight,
brings it into southern Georgia Tuesday and weakens it while
strengthening another upper low along the central Gulf Coast. With
the lower level feature, it drags it northward and then absorbs it
into a broader low over the western Florida Panhandle. In
contrast, the ECMWF, meanders the upper closed low over the
northern Gulf Coast with the feature near the western Florida
Panhandle by Wednesday while the low level feature is positioned a
little further northward as it shifts westward. With the European model (ecmwf)
keeping the feature more in the area, it helps to enhance
precipitation over the short term and thus results in higher
rainfall totals as opposed to the GFS that weakens out the system
initially and then brings it north of the cwa, resulting in
rainfall amounts on the lower side. NAM seems a little more
similar to the GFS for the low level feature but isn't quite as
defined with the upper level system for the short term.

Quantitative precipitation forecast...for the short term, the GFS continues to remain lower on quantitative precipitation forecast
values with the highest values confined to the coast, while the
European model (ecmwf) is on the high end. While it also shows the higher values
along the coast, the European model (ecmwf) also spreads the higher values further
inland. Canadian is more similar to the European model (ecmwf) in amounts through
Wednesday. Official forecast is between the lower GFS and higher
European model (ecmwf). The higher quantitative precipitation forecast values remain confined to the Taylor, Dixie,
Lafayette County area tonight and begin to spread slightly
westward late tonight, but the higher values are still confined
close to the coast. While the rain spreads westward on Tuesday,
the higher rainfall totals through Wednesday will remain confined
to The Big Bend and the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle.
Flood Watch will likely need to be expanded westward in a future
forecast update.



Long term [wednesday night through monday]...

Key Point...

1. Heavy rain and flood threat will continue in the long term but
shifts west, mainly west of the Apalachicola River.

The differences in model solutions persists through the long term.
The GFS brings the upper low over Mississippi. The European model (ecmwf) is a little
east of the GFS and stronger and thus once again higher on the
rainfall amounts in the long term. The 00z European model (ecmwf) solution is weaker
though than the previous run so European model (ecmwf) rainfall totals are on the
lower side than what we have seen from the model the past few
days. Again the GFS seems too low with rainfall values while the
European model (ecmwf) is on the high side, so similar to the short term, the long
term rainfall totals are between the two with the highest values
west of the Apalachicola River.

Thank you.
Quoting 1086. CybrTeddy:

Challenge: run through the 12z GFS centered on the Western Pacific, run through 384 hours and count how many tropical cyclones you see.

8 (August 08 12Z to August 24 12Z)
1093. Patrap
👍 ✌
1094. Patrap
1095. Patrap
1096. gator23
Quoting 1084. mfcmom:

What do you think that means for Panama City hon?


I got you. Full breakdown and in depth analysis of what Panama City can expect from this feature. Includes discussion, video, charts and graphs. Link
Quoting 1085. Patrap:

Its a cauldron of gumbo simmering mojo in the central GOM.




The Tuna are biting on ice cubes now, lol.
1098. K8eCane
Welcome to another season of disinformation. Ahhhh, no.
Quoting 1088. SieCantSurf:

http://www.co.walton.fl.us/CivicAlerts/SingleAlert I tem?alertID=1336

For those in Walton and the west end of Bay county that live in low lying areas, Walton county is setting up some sandbag stations. Locations in link.

Have a good day all!


the city of lynn haven is also giving out sand bags. go to www.wjhg.com for more info
what drought? significant rain past 4 days put that to an end. e cen florida
we received just shy of 3 inches of rain yesterday. I feel confident we can handle another 3 to 5 without much trouble as long as it's spread out over a few days.
Quoting 1086. CybrTeddy:

Challenge: run through the 12z GFS centered on the Western Pacific, run through 384 hours and count how many tropical cyclones you see.


Oh...you meant WPac, I counted the Atlantic and got 0.

Wpac....8? Some of them seem to be like Omais, the multiple centers of rotation within one disturbance.

That's just insane. Slightly better than the earlier run of the CMC that 1900 had on his twitter feed.
Heavy squall line coming in at San Jose del Cabo MX from Javier!
Quoting 1097. canehater1:



The Tuna are biting on ice cubes now, lol.


Now that's funny!
Quoting 1097. canehater1:



The Tuna are biting on ice cubes now, lol.


TUNA.. WHERE!!!!!

(We have caught just one in the 21'st century, compared to the 20-30 big Mahi we catch each year to freeze
and eat over the next 12 months]
HH out and about in the GOM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Quoting 1048. wadadlian:


If the mosquitoes are that strong maybe they will soon take up your bed also. You may find yourself sleeping on the floor.


Shoot 'em and roast 'em. Six drumsticks per.
Quoting 1102. Astrometeor:



Oh...you meant WPac, I counted the Atlantic and got 0.

Wpac....8? Some of them seem to be like Omais, the multiple centers of rotation within one disturbance.

That's just insane. Slightly better than the earlier run of the CMC that 1900 had on his twitter feed.


Saw a tweet from Levi earlier and said there are signals that the Atlantic might be quiet for the rest of August.
Quoting 1108. Bucsboltsfan:



Saw a tweet from Levi earlier and said there are signals that the Atlantic might be quiet for the rest of August.


This would be good! Mid Atlantic has climatological risk!
1110. Patrap
Quoting 1108. Bucsboltsfan:



Saw a tweet from Levi earlier and said there are signals that the Atlantic might be quiet for the rest of August.
Don't post this..it doesn't fit the narrative...Anyway it would make sense with the whole active pacific and quiet Atlantic correlation.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 4h
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August
see alittle turning southeastern atl. system
Quoting 1070. KuCommando:




Seems to me you could walk the beaches & boardwalks as a town crier.....that'll get the word out to the touristas
Needed the laugh as I melt in a car line. Thanks.
1114. hydrus
Looks to me like the surface Low that had been quasi-stationary off Florida West Coast has pulled North but mid level vorticity remains and that's why all the cautions for heavy rain events from Fla. to La.
Quoting 1105. georgevandenberghe:



TUNA.. WHERE!!!!!

(We have caught just one in the 21'st century, compared to the 20-30 big Mahi we catch each year to freeze
and eat over the next 12 months]


Yellowfin and Blackfin in pretty decent numbers off SE Louisiana coast in deep water.
1117. Patrap
1118. Patrap
Some one turned on the firehose with this cell... got drenched running 10 feet from the car to the house.. thunder sounds like an artillery battle. Fun Fun Fun!
That moisture saturation of the atmosphere in afternoon and evenings of the last three days here in South Florida is remarkable.
3:22 PM EDT Monday 08 August 2016
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio
Quoting 1028. win1gamegiantsplease:



How rainy was it in 1999?

Similar to 1996, we got multiple tropical systems to make landfall (Arthur, Dennis, Floyd)


Summer 1999 was very dry. Drought broke in last days of August with.. yep.. multiple wet tropical systems.
Quoting 1111. washingtonian115:

Don't post this..it doesn't fit the narrative...Anyway it would make sense with the whole active pacific and quiet Atlantic correlation.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 4h
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August


Basically three more weeks (23 days). Time will tell. Things can change quickly this time of year, despite the signs pointing to a slow August.
1124. Grothar
Looks to me this hurricane season could be well below average for august and September and above average for October. I think if some storm menaces the Leewards it will form closer to that islands, not as far as CV storms (IMO)
Quoting 1124. Grothar:



Cute little square
Quoting 1045. Skyepony:

To go along with the other day's discussion of a Great Lakes storm.. How about in the Hudson Bay? Giving it some long odds but the models are suggesting it..
This looks some what subtropical with the classic 9 shape..992mb

gfs

CMC





Interesting... How would it be named if it became subtropical? As Atlantic storm i'm guessing?
updated

Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Humidex values reaching near 40 are expected.

Yet another heat wave on the way.

A hot and humid airmass will return from the United States beginning Tuesday afternoon, when afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low 30s. Humidex values will slowly rise to the mid 30s in most areas on Tuesday.

The air mass will become considerably more humid Tuesday night, which will keep overnight temperatures near 20 in most areas. Hot and humid conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies is expected Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s, and early morning minimum temperatures may briefly reach the low 20s. The warm and muggy nights will not provide much of a break from the almost relentless heat, even in the odd location where temperatures may briefly dip to the upper teens shortly before sunrise.

Some relief from the daytime heat is possible in a few locales near the shorelines of the Great Lakes if a breeze off the lake develops.

Humidex values peaking in the upper thirties to low 40s are expected beginning Wednesday as well.

This may be the longest and most significant heat wave of the summer so far.

Latest indications suggest a weak cold front, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, may move through sometime Friday night. If this occurs as forecast, some relief from the heat and humidity will be expected in time for next weekend.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Reschedule or plan outdoor activities during cooler parts of the day.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Prepare meals that don't need to be cooked in your oven.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
And so the rains begin in NWFL.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1090. Patrap:

I like using the unenhanced IR loop to see the structure forming better.




And what is the "structure" that you are seeing?
The Atlantic is sick! It needs a good dose of meds.
Quoting 1123. Sfloridacat5:



Basically three more weeks (23 days). Time will tell. Things can change quickly this time of year, despite the signs pointing to a slow August.
Quoting 1045. Skyepony:

To go along with the other day's discussion of a Great Lakes storm.. How about in the Hudson Bay? Giving it some long odds but the models are suggesting it..
This looks some what subtropical with the classic 9 shape..992mb

gfs

CMC




Wow...SSTs are only about 9 degrees Celsius there (around 48 degrees Fahrenheit), and I have never seen anything remotely close to a tropical cyclone up there...but what the models are depicting does look subtropical...It probably wouldn't be named if it did somehow develop into a subtropical cyclone.
Quoting 1120. ElConando:

That moisture saturation of the atmosphere in afternoon and evenings of the last three days here in South Florida is remarkable.
Ain't that the truth. I guess we are making up for a relatively dry June and July. I know I'm ready for it to stop for a few days.
Quoting 1111. washingtonian115:

Don't post this..it doesn't fit the narrative...Anyway it would make sense with the whole active pacific and quiet Atlantic correlation.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 4h
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August

I don't find this at all surprising. I keep thinking "it will be different this year". Not much rain here in the Orlando area either. But I won't be putting out the sprinkler for at least the next week after seeing this past utilities bill. Way way too high. Hand watering will have to suffice for a while, along with maybe some rain???
Quoting 1136. bluehaze27:

Ain't that the truth. I guess we are making up for a relatively dry June and July. I know I'm ready for it to stop for a few days.

Send the soaking rains here!
We haven't seen this much convection along the east coast of Florida in a long time.
Hi, all...just a reminder that we have a new post out.