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CSU Projects a Near-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2016

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:00 PM GMT on April 14, 2016

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season started off with a surprising bang in early January, when Hurricane Alex formed in the far Eastern Atlantic. However, a near-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2016, said the hurricane forecasting team from Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 14. Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with special contributions from Dr. Bill Gray, the CSU team is calling for an Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 93 (these numbers all take Alex into account.) The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The CSU outlook also calls for a 50% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2016, with a 30% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula and a 29% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean is forecast to have a 40% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane. All of these probabilities are very close to the long-term numbers from the last century.

Six years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as “analog” years that the 2016 hurricane season may resemble:

1941 (6 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes)
1973 (8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane)
1983 (4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane)
1992 (7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane)
1998 (14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes)
2003 (16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes)

These six years all featured El Niño conditions transitioning to neutral or La Niña conditions. The average activity for these years was 9.2 named storms, 5.3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, all fairly close to the long-term average. However, as shown in the list above and in Figure 1 below, there is a great deal of variation among the six analog years chosen by CSU.


Figure 1. Two of the analog seasons cited in the new CSU hurricane outlook are a study in contrasts. The 1983 season (left) was the quietest post-1970 Atlantic season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy, with only 4 named storms and 3 hurricanes. The 1998 season (right) produced 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and more than $3 billion in damage, as well as the catastrophic Hurricane Mitch, which killed more than 10,000 people as it decayed over Central America. The 1983 and 1998 seasons followed the two strongest El Niño events on record, which were roughly on par with the 2015-16 El Niño event.


Figure 2. Hurricane Alex approaching the Azores Islands in the far Eastern Atlantic on January 14, 2016. Alex peaked as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds on January 14, then weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds when it made landfall on Terceira Island in the Azores on January 15. The storm caused minimal damage and was responsible for one indirect death. Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Alice in 1955, and the first to form in January since 1938. Image credit: NASA.

A boost from El Niño’s departure
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be an average hurricane season:

1) The El Niño event now fading in the eastern tropical Pacific is expected to transition toward neutral conditions this summer and either neutral or La Niña conditions by autumn (see the discussion below). If La Niña conditions are present this fall, this would tend to favor a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season due to a reduction in the upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic that can tear storms apart. Sea surface temperatures were 1.3°C above average over the past week in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for a weak El Niño event to be declared. By August-October, most dynamical models are calling for either cool-neutral conditions (Niño3.4 anomalies between 0 and -0.5°C) or La Niña conditions (Niño3.4 anomalies of -0.5°C or greater). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the best prediction skill of the various El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models, and the average of the various ECMWF ensemble members is calling for a Nino 3.4 SST anomaly of approximately -0.4°C, just short of weak La Niña conditions. Several other models, including the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2), are projecting somewhat stronger La Niña conditions by the August-October period. In its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Watch, with the new CPC/IRI probabilistic outlook calling for a 65% chance of La Niña during the August-October period.

2) A fairly unusual pattern in sea surface temperature (SST) is present across the North Atlantic, leading to some uncertainty about how this factor will evolve later in the year. SSTs are now above average in the Northwest Atlantic and well below average in the far North Atlantic, a pattern that the CSU group has associated with the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Typically this pattern also leads to colder-than-normal water in the tropical Atlantic. However, SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were near to slightly above average in March 2016, with the exception of cooler-than-average waters just off the coast of Africa. SSTs have cooled across both the tropical and far northern Atlantic since late October, largely due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since November 2014. A positive phase of the NAO is associated with a strengthened Bermuda-Azores High and faster trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. The faster winds increase mixing of cool water to the surface. These cooler SSTs are associated with higher-than-normal sea level pressures, which can create a self-enhancing feedback that relates to higher pressure, stronger trades and cooler SSTs during the hurricane season. Virtually all African tropical waves originate in the MDR, and these tropical waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. The April outlook concludes: “There are some hints of [cold water] emerging in the tropical Atlantic, but it remains to be seen if these cold anomalies will push further across the tropical Atlantic.”

As always, the CSU team included this standard disclaimer:

"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."


Figure 3. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for March 2016, as computed by NOAA/ESRL. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) between Africa and Central America (red box) were near average in the eastern Atlantic, and slightly above average in the Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

How good are the April forecasts?
April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season (although there is a fairly strong model consensus this year on a transition from El Niño toward La Niña). For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due on June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years. NOAA issues its first seasonal hurricane forecast for 2016 in late May.

TSR predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season
The April 5 forecast for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season about 20% below the long-term (1950-2015) norm and about 15% below the recent 2006-2015 ten-year norm. TSR is predicting 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80 for the period May though December. The long-term averages for the past 65 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and an ACE of 101. TSR rates their skill level as low for these April forecasts--just 9 - 15% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 29% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 27% chance it will be near average, and a 44% chance it will be below average. They project that two named storms will hit the U.S., with one of these being a hurricane. The averages from the 1950-2015 climatology are three named storms and one hurricane. They rate their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 3 - 7% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects one named storm and no hurricanes. Climatology is one named storm and less than 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling SSTs 0.03°C below average and trade winds 0.15 m/s faster than average during these periods. Both of these factors should act to decrease hurricane and tropical storm activity. The July-September 2016 trade wind prediction is based on an expectation of near-neutral El Niño ENSO conditions in August-September 2016. They add: "Should the TSR forecast for 2016 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2016 was easily the lowest 4-year total since 1991-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2016 hurricane season." One factor to keep in mind: TSU’s outlook drew in part on NOAA CFSv2 model projections that conflicted with other major models in calling for El Niño to continue this autumn. NOAA has now corrected an initialization error in the CFSv2, and this month the model has made a major switch, now consistently pointing toward La Niña. CSU was able to this switch into account in developing its April outlook. The next TSR forecast will be issued on May 27.


Figure 4. The departure of tropical cyclone activity from average for the five years 2013, 1988, 1973, 1970, and 1954 (tropical cyclones include all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes). These five years had ocean temperatures in the Western Hemisphere similar to what is predicted in the summer of 2016 by NOAA's North American Multi-Model Ensemble. During these five analog years, above-average activity was observed in the western Gulf of Mexico, along the U.S. East Coast, and along the Pacific coast of Mexico. Image credit: WU member Levi Cowan (tropicaltidbits.com)

Analog years from Levi Cowan
WU member Levi Cowan (tropicaltidbits.com) has come up with his own list of analog years for Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane activity, based on the predicted pattern of ocean temperatures this summer from NOAA's North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): 2013 (which featured 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes); 1988 (12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes); 1973 (8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane) ; 1970 (10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); and 1954 (16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes). Above-average activity was observed in the western Gulf of Mexico, along the U.S. East Coast, and along the Pacific coast of Mexico during these five years. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 4.6 hurricanes, and 1.8 major hurricanes.

We’ll have a post by Friday afternoon looking ahead to the major spring storm that's likely to bring severe weather and excessive rain this weekend to parts of the Southern and Central Plains and heavy snow to the Central Rockies.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

   Thanks for the Interesting Post, Gentlemen...
Preparation is still the only hedge bet for every Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Thanks Mr.Henson and Doc.I for one will be paying attention to the forecast since we brought property in hurricane country this year.
Thanks for the breakdown of the current CSU outlook. Sahel rainfall and SAL levels across the Central Atlantic between now and June (not to mention in July and August) is also something to consider as related to SSTs. Pervasive SAL over the next few months can help keep the "cool" on the Central Atlantic MDR waters and a lack thereof can give the surface waters a chance to heat up a little more with more direct sunlight. No too much out there at present but that will fluctuate and change over the next few months; have to see if the overall 3 month trend is for more or less SAL coverage:





Thanks doks!

Listening to Captain Borg as I eat my lunch.

Remember...IT ONLY TAKES ONE!!!!

I volunteer Captain Borg (linked above the last sentence) as the theme song for Hurricane Season 2016.
Thank you Gentlemen! Let's hope that this year's hurricane season is interesting, but that is does not involve evacuations.

Now way to know the ultimate outcome in the Atlantic this year but the general rule of thumb of an average/below-average/above-average season has panned out from the prediction outlets over the past several years with a few notable exceptions (2005 comes to mind); hope we never see another year like that which blew the doors off of every pre-season prediction...................................
The Nino 1+2 region is cooling very rapidly now;







It won't be long until this occurs in the other regions.
Dr. Masters used to always include a graph of the skill of hurricane season forecasts. IIRC forecasts at this time of year show little or no skill.

I have never been impressed with analog years. I think they are just something to keep you busy when you have nothing better to do. That has always been reflected in the (lack of) skill statistics.
Quoting 10. bappit:

Dr. Masters used to always include a graph of the skill of hurricane season forecasts. IIRC forecasts at this time of year show little or no skill.

I have never been impressed with analog years. I think they are just something to keep you busy when you have nothing better to do. That has always been reflected in the (lack of) skill statistics.

I( agree with you on the analogue year thingy.

I have always said that "historical" data is pretty irrelevant, given the fact that we are now experiencing entirely new Climate.
In short, we've never been here before. And there are no signposts.......
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 4h4 hours ago Texas, USA
Latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calling for 65% chance of #LaNina by August-October.
Personally I disagree with CSU I believe we are heading into what could be a very active hurricane season similar to 1998. Gulf & Caribbean I think will be hot spots to watch and these systems could be BIG. Reason I believe this is due to much lower trades across the Caribbean which should allow these Tropical Waves to Blossom once July comes a knockin.

I think Folks across the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast regions could be in big trouble this year. Again JMO.
To my west and overhead, Full Sunshine, looking east though, one can still see the backside just above the Horizon.

I personally believe we might be in the 16 9 4 area.
Quoting 14. Patrap:
To my west and overhead, Full Sunshine, looking east though, one can still see the backside just above the Horizon.



Can't wait for the clearing to reach NW Florida, it's been raining here since the overnight hours and hasn't let up yet!
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Story continues below...

Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Personally I disagree with CSU I believe we are heading into what could be a very active hurricane season similar to 1998. Gulf & Caribbean I think will be hot spots to watch and these systems could be BIG. Reason I believe this is due to much lower trades across the Caribbean which should allow these Tropical Waves to Blossom once July comes a knockin.

I think Folks across the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast regions could be in big trouble this year. Again JMO.
Vertical instability will be a big issue again this season.
My join date here is from July 3,2005 as I wanted extra frames for the wu radar as Tropical Storm Cindy was trekking North toward us.



Best money investment I ever made.

Come the morning of August 29th, 7.5 weeks later, I was staring at the same radar wundering..,did I make a really bad mistake by staying?



This saved (by me) wunderground radar loop runs from approx 5:30 am when the eyewall hit us,up until 9am CDT when it was was really Howling. The winds did not relent to under Tropical Storm strength until 2pm. That was 8.5 hours of Storm conditions within the western eyewall.

It now comprises 33% of my total eyewall hours in 8 named storms, 3 of which are retired names.
Quoting 19. Gearsts:

Vertical instability will be a big issue again this season.


Perhaps or perhaps not. Right now we're still experiencing El Nino conditions across the Atlantic. We may see vertical instability get back to normal in time for the peak of the hurricane season (August/September/October) as we'll likely be in Neutral/La Nina territory come May/June/July (Taking into account a 3 month lag for the atmosphere to respond to SST patterns).
Quoting 21. Patrap:

My join date here is from July 3,2005 as I wanted extra frames for the wu radar as Tropical Storm Cindy was trekking North toward us.



Best money investment I ever made.

Come the morning of August 29th, 7.5 weeks later, I was staring at the same radar wundering..,did I make a really bad mistake by staying?



This saved (by me) wunderground radar loop runs from approx 5:30 am when the eyewall hit us,up until 10am CDT when it was was really Howling. The winds did not relent to under Tropical Storm strength until 2pm. That was 8.5 hours of Storm conditions within the western eyewall.

It now comprises 33% of my total eyewall hours in 8 named storms, 3 of which are retired names.


how ever if i re call it was upgrade too a hurricane at post season for land fall so it would be called hurricane cindy
Latest discussion from the San Juan NWS about the rain event in the NE Caribbean for next week.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION DEEPENS AND BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THIS IN TURN
WILL ALLOW GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW AND BASED ON RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE...AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:
I personally believe we might be in the 16 9 4 area.
Speaking of forecasting "skill", Scott, the last time I read your comments here, you "personally believed" that we were going to experience an extended or returning El Nino. - and the equatorial Pacific would not be transitioning to a La Nina.

Have you changed your mind?
Quoting 23. Tazmanian:



how ever if i re call it was upgrade too a hurricane at post season for land fall so it would be called hurricane cindy


Indeed you have a great memory Taz, it was and many here knew that as we were all saying it soon after. Its even in the wiki article saying so.

Hurricane Cindy 2005

Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded. Many people in the New Orleans metropolitan area expected minimal effects from the storm, but were cleaning up debris and were without power for days after Cindy's passage. In Louisiana, 260,000 residences were left without power.

Of note as well Taz is that Cindy was the worst hit since Betsy at the time. And we were still picking up tree debris and storing it on public playgrounds when K hit, as there was a lot of tree damage. Cindy also tore the roof off the Atlanta motor Speedway with a Nado.

Never wait for predictions, always be prepared. I say that to myself every year.
Quoting 22. Envoirment:



Perhaps or perhaps not. Right now we're still experiencing El Nino conditions across the Atlantic. We may see vertical instability get back to normal in time for the peak of the hurricane season (August/September/October) as we'll likely be in Neutral/La Nina territory come May/June/July (Taking into account a 3 month lag for the atmosphere to respond to SST patterns).

I agree. The instability may change once we get to peak season.
Cane fo'cast's cant tell me where, or when, or What Cat size. But we all know that canes can hit anytime during the Season.

But climo tells us the worst impacts occur between July and the end of September.

The CV season can slip a wave under any condition downstream where they can find excellent conditions and go on to do the nasty somewhere to someone.


My prediction for this season is similar to many that are both posted and not posted.

"It only takes one."

I've never had anyone close to me die in a hurricane or typhoon, but I've been in a few. I've seen personal property damage -- from minor losses to major.

I'm glad there are smart dudes who look at educated probabilities, and I support those few pragmatic public officials who do honestly try to prepare people at risk.
Wow!!!! Lots of rain!!!!


Quoting 29. Patrap:

Cane fo'cast's cant tell me where, or when, or What Cat size. But we all know that canes can hit anytime during the Season.

But climo tells us the worst impacts occur between July and the end of September.

The CV season can slip a wave under any condition downstream where they can find excellent conditions and go on to do the nasty somewhere to someone.




October is a danger month for the East Coast also. Remembering Hazel and Sandy!
Quoting 31. 62901IL:

Wow!!!! Lots of rain!!!!





Send some to the Mid Atlantic. Thanks!
Quoting 33. georgevandenberghe:



Send some to the Mid Atlantic. Thanks!


I'll talk to the Rain God about it. :)
Too Close to Dangerous Climate Thresholds — Japan Meteorological Agency Shows First Three Months of 2016 Were About 1.5 C Above the IPCC Preindustrial Baseline

Link


Interesting. Area of heaviest rain seems to have been moved to the southwest of the Houston metro. Am I seeing this right? Or what does this really mean? Anyone?
Really want to get new fencing and split with the neighbors cost wise for our backyards, but it'll be my luck a storm will come thru this hurricane season and blow it down. Probably better off waiting for a storm to come one day and blow it down and have insurance pick up some of the tab.
Maybe this year we wont see any ships plow into major hurricanes.
Quoting 33. georgevandenberghe:



Send some to the Mid Atlantic. Thanks!



Heaviest rain seems to be centering on areas southwest of Houston.
Quoting 36. pureet1948:



Interesting. Area of heaviest rain seems to have been moved to the southwest of the Houston metro. Am I seeing this right? Or what does this really mean? Anyone?


It means some one is going to get lots of rain somewhere in TX, but where at... nobody knows, and wont till the event happens.
As this monster shows it doesn't take a active year to cause havoc
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

As this monster shows it doesn't take a active year to cause havoc



The Delta Flyer was in Joaquin for a week...I think from when it formed to 12 hours after it became extra-tropical. Could have been a lot worse if it made a landfall in the USA.


Then we have storms like this that don't do anything but make rip currents and scare us..
Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the breakdown of the current CSU outlook. Sahel rainfall and SAL levels across the Central Atlantic between now and June (not to mention in July and August) is also something to consider as related to SSTs. Pervasive SAL over the next few months can help keep the "cool" on the Central Atlantic MDR waters and a lack thereof can give the surface waters a chance to heat up a little more with more direct sunlight. No too much out there at present but that will fluctuate and change over the next few months; have to see if the overall 3 month trend is for more or less SAL coverage:





Due for a quiet SAL period.
1992 is a bad analog year for anything except another volcano winter event. The summer polar vortex and westerlies remained stronger that year because of stratospheric aerosol from the Mt Pinatubo eruption May 1991.
We don't have that this year.
Quoting 39. pureet1948:




Heaviest rain seems to be centering on areas southwest of Houston.


My garden hose doesn't go that far and the 12 volt pumps I use would be challenged by that distance anyway
... so are tornado seasons not a thing anymore? It's mid-April and we've barely seen any tornadoes in the mid-west. Don't get me wrong, that's great news for residences of Oklahoma, Texas, et cetera, but it strikes me as weird how since 2012 tornado seasons have pretty much flat lined.
Satellite images reveal dramatic tropical glacier retreat

Scientists use high resolution satellite imagery to provide a decadal study of ablation of equatorial glaciers in West Papua. The images taken from the Pleaides satellites reveal that the formerly extensive Carstenz Glacier of West Papua New Guinea has almost completely disappeared, while the once continuous East North Wall Firn has split into a number of much smaller fragments.

Link
Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:

... so are tornado seasons not a thing anymore? It's mid-April and we've barely seen any tornadoes in the mid-west. Don't get me wrong, that's great news for residences of Oklahoma, Texas, et cetera, but it strikes me as weird how since 2012 tornado seasons have pretty much flat lined.


Yes, but TX had another $700 million Hail storm and that is bad enough
Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:

... so are tornado seasons not a thing anymore? It's mid-April and we've barely seen any tornadoes in the mid-west. Don't get me wrong, that's great news for residences of Oklahoma, Texas, et cetera, but it strikes me as weird how since 2012 tornado seasons have pretty much flat lined.


you need a good storm season out here in the W for a good tornado out break for the plains but with storm season really starting too slow down now out in the W you has you are finding out it will all so be a slow tornado season for the plains
Quoting 47. georgevandenberghe:



My garden hose doesn't go that far and the 12 volt pumps I use would be challenged by that distance anyway



Mine, neither
and too add to my post you need to have the gulf of MX wide open i think its closed right now for a good severe weather out break for the plains
Quoting 22. Envoirment:



Perhaps or perhaps not. Right now we're still experiencing El Nino conditions across the Atlantic. We may see vertical instability get back to normal in time for the peak of the hurricane season (August/September/October) as we'll likely be in Neutral/La Nina territory come May/June/July (Taking into account a 3 month lag for the atmosphere to respond to SST patterns).
2011 had very low vertical instability and there was a La nina for peak season. And since then it has been below normal.
Quoting 57. Gearsts:

2011 had very low vertical instability and there was a La nina for peak season. And since then it has been below normal.

Still, though, 2011 had 19 storms, so...low vertical instability alone doesn't guarantee an inactive season.
Quoting 58. HurricaneFan:


Still, though, 2011 had 19 storms, so...low vertical instability alone doesn't guarantee an inactive season.
Well the AMO that year was different.

Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:

... so are tornado seasons not a thing anymore? It's mid-April and we've barely seen any tornadoes in the mid-west. Don't get me wrong, that's great news for residences of Oklahoma, Texas, et cetera, but it strikes me as weird how since 2012 tornado seasons have pretty much flat lined.


The cold Spring over the East Coast (cold high pressure) has shut down the tornado season in the typical area for tornadoes this time of year. This has been happening the past few Springs.
During a typical (expected) tornado season, we'd see a warm setup over the eastern half of the U.S. with cold frontal systems (cold high pressure) diving down into the Southern Plains.
Then you get that triple point setup (dry air pumping in from the south west, cold air from the north west, warm moist air from the south east) over the Southern Plains (typically North Texas, Oklahoma, or Kansas). You also need the jet stream racing over the area to really finish it off.

We haven't had a classic setup yet this season over the Southern Plains. On Monday we had a decent setup (produced huge hail over parts of Texas and Oklahoma), but their wasn't enough instability and wind shear to produce a tornado outbreak.

This was a very bad day for Moore Oklahoma. Classic dry line setup during peak daytime heating. Produced the highest wind speed ever recorded by radar on Earth (over 300 mph).








Another picture that makes you just imagine the wind speed necessary to do this. Also reason why you don't want to ride out an EF5 in a vehicle.



The cooling currently observed in the NINO 1+2 region is likely the beginning of La Nina. CFS shows neutral by May, with negative SST anomalies taking over in the eastern Pacific.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 8h8 hours ago
Anomalous southeasterlies parallel to Peru coastline inducing Ekman upwelling, causing Nino 1+2 to hit the tank.
Thanks for the update. CSU isn't that far from my precious prediction at Max' blog (go there and post your numbers if you want to be part of the race), so they might have lurked, lol. Most important: hope everyone of you and your lot survives the season unscathed!

At #62 Sfloridacat5, speaking of tornadoes: One or even two very strong ones hit Maysan in Iraq today. An article in Arabian language says (if you translate it by google) such an event was unprecendented in this region as far as memories go. 10 houses had been destroyed, an electric power station was damaged and five power poles went down. Some pics of the damage in this Italian article.

Here some videos. In the first one you can see that there might have been two tornadoes (one in the background):



This youtube video is from a different angle and provides a great view of the funnel. Another one from the power station which shows both tornadoes.

Here a video from a different location (maybe the second tornado?) showing folks watching the event and then running away.
---------------------------

More news from the Middle East (possibly connected, weatherwise):
Saudi on red alert as severe flooding leaves 18 dead
Saudi Arabia has seen nearly a week of severe flooding after rainstorms hit most of the kingdom
MEE staff, Thursday 14 April 2016 13:01 UTC, Last update: Thursday 14 April 2016 14:18 UTC
Severe rainstorms continued in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, after a week of severe flooding that has seen more than a dozen people killed and nearly 1,000 rescued, according to local authorities. Eighteen people have been killed during heavy rains and floods over the past week the civil defence agency said on Thursday. In a statement, it said the toll covered much of the country, from Riyadh to Hail, Mecca, Medina, Al-Baha, Asir, Najran and Jazan. The agency said it rescued 915 people. ...
Quoting 62. Sfloridacat5:



The cold Spring over the East Coast (cold high pressure) has shut down the tornado season in the typical area for tornadoes this time of year. This has been happening the past few Springs.
During a typical (expected) tornado season, we'd see a warm setup over the eastern half of the U.S. with cold frontal systems (cold high pressure) diving down into the Southern Plains.
Then you get that triple point setup (dry air pumping in from the south west, cold air from the north west, warm moist air from the south east) over the Southern Plains (typically North Texas, Oklahoma, or Kansas). You also need the jet stream racing over the area to really finish it off.

We haven't had a classic setup yet this season over the Southern Plains. On Monday we had a decent setup (produced huge hail over parts of Texas and Oklahoma), but their wasn't enough instability and wind shear to produce a tornado outbreak.

This was a very bad day for Moore Oklahoma. Classic dry line setup during peak daytime heating. Produced the highest wind speed ever recorded by radar on Earth (over 300 mph).








Another picture that makes you just imagine the wind speed necessary to do this. Also reason why you don't want to ride out an EF5 in a vehicle.





I was in Bridge Creek, OK within a mile of this..... easily the scariest day of my life.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
For the first time in over a year, we are seeing an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave punch through the eastern Pacific.


The Collapse.
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Personally I disagree with CSU I believe we are heading into what could be a very active hurricane season similar to 1998. Gulf & Caribbean I think will be hot spots to watch and these systems could be BIG. Reason I believe this is due to much lower trades across the Caribbean which should allow these Tropical Waves to Blossom once July comes a knockin.

I think Folks across the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast regions could be in big trouble this year. Again JMO.


Hey Scott glad to hear from ya thought you gone awol or something was kinda getting a little worried
Hey I agree will be an active season this year

Btw any thoughts on the ENSO now and the forecast from now onwards
Quoting 19. Gearsts:

Vertical instability will be a big issue again this season.


Last year Gulf wasn't that bad for TCs. There just weren't any seedlings. Everything was headed to death before it got there " sheared ''
Quoting 69. stormchaser19:



The Collapse.


Yep soon to see niño 3 and niño 3.4 to do the same at same rate too maybe

Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Well the AMO that year was different.




I think AMO will go positive by JJA
Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the breakdown of the current CSU outlook. Sahel rainfall and SAL levels across the Central Atlantic between now and June (not to mention in July and August) is also something to consider as related to SSTs. Pervasive SAL over the next few months can help keep the "cool" on the Central Atlantic MDR waters and a lack thereof can give the surface waters a chance to heat up a little more with more direct sunlight. No too much out there at present but that will fluctuate and change over the next few months; have to see if the overall 3 month trend is for more or less SAL coverage:

Hmm, for my untrained eyes there's already a lot of commotion in the ITCZ off Africa:


And the line of storms in the Sahel was ramping up the last days. Of course, it's not yet the time for the real Cape Verde season.

Current (saved) West African airmass pic.
Quoting 44. JrWeathermanFL:
Then we have storms like this that don't do anything but make rip currents and scare us..
Rip currents kill people.
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:



I think AMO will go positive by JJA
Will take a huge pattern change to flip sst setup over the Atlantic.
Quoting 71. hurricane23:



Last year Gulf wasn't that bad for TCs. There just weren't any seedlings. Everything was headed to death before it got there " sheared ''
The gulf and east coast had favorable conditions with the best instability and very low shear but the caribbean was the shredder with shear at times near 80 knots in the middle of August.Nothing was going through that wall or coming out of it either.The combination of shear,mountainous terrain,and dry air took care of both Danny and Erika that in any normal year would be a huge threat to the U.S.

Speaking of patterns the pattern was there for a cv to threaten the U.S back in August but thankfully shear and its partner in crime dry air kept things in check in the Atlantic.
I went with 12 named storms last season (off by 1).

I haven't made my educated guess for this season, but I believe the CSU forecast is too low for named storms for this season.
Quoting 77. washingtonian115:

The gulf and east coast had favorable conditions with the best instability and very low shear but the caribbean was the shredder with shear at times near 80 knots in the middle of August.Nothing was going through that wall or coming out of it either.The combination of shear,mountainous terrain,and dry air took care of both Danny and Erika that in any normal year would be huge threat the the U.S.

Speaking of patterns the pattern was there for a cv to threaten the U.S back in August but thankfully shear and its partner in crime dry air kept things in check in the Atlantic.
Great comment! I wasted 3 nights thanks to this guy:
Quoting 67. OKsky:



I was in Bridge Creek, OK within a mile of this..... easily the scariest day of my life.


Yes, I'm sure it was. I know that area very well. I used to live on S.W. 127th street in Oklahoma City. I graduated from Moore High School.
79. Gearsts
6:20 PM EDT on April 14, 2016
Erika was worst..I'm sure a lot of the key boards at the NHC looked like this after the storm...
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Personally I disagree with CSU I believe we are heading into what could be a very active hurricane season similar to 1998. Gulf & Caribbean I think will be hot spots to watch and these systems could be BIG. Reason I believe this is due to much lower trades across the Caribbean which should allow these Tropical Waves to Blossom once July comes a knockin.

I think Folks across the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast regions could be in big trouble this year. Again JMO.


Yeah. Caribbean trades are a very important predictor. If they are weak in July, watch out!
Quoting 75. bappit:

Rip currents kill people.


People dumb enough to swim in strong rip currents kill people (themselves or those who are put at risk trying to rescue said buffoon). I can go to the zoo and safely observe a lion while it's behind a safety barrier or I can jump inside and roll the dice. Simple choice for those with sense.
Please pray for us...

From the Miami NWS Disco...

ON FRIDAY, WE ENTER THE SECOND ACT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
WHERE THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WHILE MORE COLD AIR STREAMS IN
ALOFT AS THE 500 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -13 TO -12 DEG C POINT TO A HAIL
GROWTH ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUSTAIN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND HEALTHY UPDRAFTS.

Link
Congratulations to Zach Labe (Blizzard92) for being cited in this article in Slate:

Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was an Error
Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the breakdown of the current CSU outlook. Sahel rainfall and SAL levels across the Central Atlantic between now and June (not to mention in July and August) is also something to consider as related to SSTs. Pervasive SAL over the next few months can help keep the "cool" on the Central Atlantic MDR waters and a lack thereof can give the surface waters a chance to heat up a little more with more direct sunlight. No too much out there at present but that will fluctuate and change over the next few months; have to see if the overall 3 month trend is for more or less SAL coverage:






I'm curious to see how long this reduced SAL holds up over the long term.
After a cool and wet early April, it seems like the GFS is predicting that late April will go straight to hot, with highs in the mid-80s to 90s.
Quoting 86. BaltimoreBrian:

Congratulations to Zach Labe (Blizzard92) for being cited in this article in Slate:

Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Melting So Fast Right Now, Scientists Thought It Was an Error


The GFS model did a very good job of forecasting this "heat wave" across Greenland. We've been discussing this issue for weeks here in the blog.
It's also pretty cool that a Twitter post by Blizzard92 made it into the article.



Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:

... so are tornado seasons not a thing anymore? It's mid-April and we've barely seen any tornadoes in the mid-west. Don't get me wrong, that's great news for residences of Oklahoma, Texas, et cetera, but it strikes me as weird how since 2012 tornado seasons have pretty much flat lined.
Just read an article saying that is going to ramp up come next month.
Quoting 88. Climate175:

After a cool and wet early April, it seems like the GFS is predicting that late April will go straight to hot, with highs in the mid-80s to 90s.
May you post the map please?
Quoting 79. Gearsts:

Great comment! I wasted 3 nights thanks to this guy:



Not as much of a waste of time Chris in 2006 was. At least it wasn't surprising when that mess died.

Quoting 91. washingtonian115:

May you post the map please?
Es importante notar, que en años neutrales y La Niña, aún en periodos no activos, hemos tenido amenazas y/o azotes de ciclones (depresiones, tormentas o huracanes) en P.R., incluyendo eventos de inundaciones.
Thanks Climate! Looks like I'll be baking down in FL.I have the bug spray on hand to keep the mosquitos away at all cost.Wouldn't want the family or I to catch that nasty virus running around.
Quoting 31. 62901IL:

Wow!!!! Lots of rain!!!!



Hopefully its all rain without the hail. Impending la nina has me remembering the drought of 2011. Hope to never see one like that again.
Quoting 79. Gearsts:

Great comment! I wasted 3 nights thanks to this guy:



So did I my friend.
GFS new bias?
100. 882MB
Quoting 95. Gearsts:

Es importante notar, que en aos neutrales y La Nia, an en periodos no activos, hemos tenido amenazas y/o azotes de ciclones (depresiones, tormentas o huracanes) en P.R., incluyendo eventos de inundaciones.


Eso es verdad. That is so true. I'm looking forward to a wet summer, con mucha agua. ;)
Quoting 99. Gearsts:

GFS new bias?

Looks like Ghost-storm season is off to an early start this year.
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

79. Gearsts
6:20 PM EDT on April 14, 2016
Erika was worst..I'm sure a lot of the key boards at the NHC looked like this after the storm...



I'd have to say, since joining, Ernesto 2012 or Chantal 2013 was the worst. My first real tastes of how gruesome watching storms could be.
Don in 2011 was bad though too


GFS now projecting 5"of rain for Houston metro instead of the 9" in the 12z run.

Still, as Charlie Brown says:

Quoting 103. pureet1948:



GFS now projecting 5"of rain for Houston metro instead of the 9" in the 12z run.

Still, as Charlie Brown says:


Gonna raise the gulf even more. Glad I dont live on ship channel.
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

79. Gearsts
6:20 PM EDT on April 14, 2016
Erika was worst..I'm sure a lot of the key boards at the NHC looked like this after the storm...



OMG Erika :/ I hate the WSW moving storms, and the COC relocating farther away : we were supposed to get over 6 inches of rain... but barely got 0.5 inch.
Lurking for two hurricane seasons, by far Erika was the absolute worst. I was on Camp Hurricane in the Bahamas and then it just all of a sudden turned rapidly north after cuba and became remnant. If the shear was lower.... we would have had some type of tropical system near or on Florida. However that does not mean it did not do anything. It was the second worst storm for Dominica IN ITS HISTORY. Think about that, a 50 mph TS was almost as worse as a direct Cat 5 hit by David in 1979.

Danny was a fighter and with less shear it would have taken off! I cant believe with that small of a storm and such harsh conditions, it made it to a major! I snipped it around its peak, but I cannot find it anymore. :[
I found this though.


Joaquin, that was a huge surprise to me. The US is very very lucky it blew up so rapidly or it would have almost certainly have struck the Mid Atlantic IMO if it was weaker than it was. It was a poorly organized TS and many thought it would not survive and all of a sudden BAM it got its act together and went from a TS to a Cat 4 Hurricane in 1 or 1.5 days. That storm was a monster and it would have been just as damaging I believe as Frances or Andrew if it struck a much more densely populated island, However the damage it did with the low population islands was just immense. Very lucky that outside of the stupid people navigating El Faro, nobody died in the Bahamas.


I believe 2016 will be a wake up call for many in the US, the US in the past 4 years has been immensely lucky that no major hurricane has struck or hurricane other than Arthur. This year with some of its analogs is looking like the Caribbean will wake up out of its 4 year slumber. People need to be on the lookout!
Quoting 104. Kenfa03:

Gonna raise the gulf even more. Glad I dont live on ship channel.



Uh, I dunno, Kenfa03. The 18Z run of the GFS suggests the heavy rain/severe weather seems more likely to occur over Victoria and Corpus. Not that Houston is out of the woods, by any means, but hey, there is a difference between 5" of rain and 9" of rain.
Quoting 101. Tornado6042008X:

Looks like Ghost-storm season is off to an early start this year.


With an emphasis on ghost.
Water is warming up...Maybe a May T.C...?


Quoting 109. hydrus:

Water is warming up...Maybe a May T.C...?


Maybe on the Pacific side. Looks really warm over there....
Quoting 110. PedleyCA:


Maybe on the Pacific side. Looks really warm over there....


I'd expect that. May is usually when TC season stars in the EPAC.
GFS (18z):



NAVGEM (12z):



UKMET (12z)




CMC (12z):



The UKMET solution is closest to what I favor. For those that don't know, this emanates from the strengthening upper low off New England (peruse water vapor imagery for details). I suspect it'll take too long to warm the upper troposphere before the next trough comes along and sweeps it, but the formation of a vigorous closed surface low appears probable based on model forecasts, including the ensembles. Interesting to watch.
Pool water temp has been holding steady at 29.5 C. So far no signs of tropical cyclogenesis, but I remain vigilant.

Back to the 80's
Hit 60F at my house today Ped... Spring is springing to life here in the last Frontier... Bears are waking up... Moose and baby moose are abound.
Quoting 83. StAugustineFL:
People dumb enough to swim in strong rip currents kill people (themselves or those who are put at risk trying to rescue said buffoon). I can go to the zoo and safely observe a lion while it's behind a safety barrier or I can jump inside and roll the dice. Simple choice for those with sense.
NOAA has a web page devoted to rip current safety.



The pictures on this page also show how obvious (not) it is to spot a rip current. This other page has a collection of survivor stories.
Quoting 117. bappit:

NOAA has a web page devoted to rip current safety.



The pictures on this page also show how obvious (not) it is to spot a rip current. This other page has a collection of survivor stories.


It's easy to spot it from up above. Although if you ever go up in a Helicopter and look at the beacj area you might not go into the water after that. Been up a few times and the number of sharks (harmless, but still), stingrays, and other stuff that swims close to you can be a little unsettling.
119. 882MB
A little bit off topic here, but I have something I have to mention. I have always been so interested in the story of Titanic, and its demise. I say this now because at this same moment 104 years ago, Titanic was already sinking. May all those 1,500 people that perished Rest In Peace, Amen



Quoting 82. hurricane23:



Yeah. Caribbean trades are a very important predictor. If they are weak in July, watch out!


My guess is that they took that into consideration when they did their months of analysis to come up with their forecast.
Forecast outlook for Agaléga

Tropical Cyclone Fantala is 450 km east southeast Agalega. It is moving in a general direction west has a speed of 15 km/h.

On this path, Fantala will be approaching Agalega and represents a potential threat to the island. It is expected that the cyclone could be about 150 km south of the island on Saturday


If the (current) 00z GFS model run verifies, Houston will now only get 4-4.5 inches of rain. The heaviest is shown as falling west of the metro.

Still, it never hurts to stay tuned.

And remember: it's only a model. It doesn't say where thunderstorms will break. Right?
Quoting 76. Gearsts:

Will take a huge pattern change to flip sst setup over the Atlantic.


Nah just an extended period of -NAO should do the trick
124. IDTH
Quoting 69. stormchaser19:



The Collapse.

...............I'm just speechless...........


Significant multi-day rain event? xD ...Or "Ghost Rain Event" :/ ?
Quoting 125. CaribBoy:



Significant multi-day rain event? xD ...Or "Ghost Rain Event" :/ ?


Hmmm. Highest accumulated total still west of the Houston metro. I'd vote for "Ghost Rain Event," myself.
127. IDTH
Quoting 106. Cyclone2016:

Lurking for two hurricane seasons, by far Erika was the absolute worst. I was on Camp Hurricane in the Bahamas and then it just all of a sudden turned rapidly north after cuba and became remnant. If the shear was lower.... we would have had some type of tropical system near or on Florida. However that does not mean it did not do anything. It was the second worst storm for Dominica IN ITS HISTORY. Think about that, a 50 mph TS was almost as worse as a direct Cat 5 hit by David in 1979.

Danny was a fighter and with less shear it would have taken off! I cant believe with that small of a storm and such harsh conditions, it made it to a major! I snipped it around its peak, but I cannot find it anymore. :[
I found this though.


Joaquin, that was a huge surprise to me. The US is very very lucky it blew up so rapidly or it would have almost certainly have struck the Mid Atlantic IMO if it was weaker than it was. It was a poorly organized TS and many thought it would not survive and all of a sudden BAM it got its act together and went from a TS to a Cat 4 Hurricane in 1 or 1.5 days. That storm was a monster and it would have been just as damaging I believe as Frances or Andrew if it struck a much more densely populated island, However the damage it did with the low population islands was just immense. Very lucky that outside of the stupid people navigating El Faro, nobody died in the Bahamas.


I believe 2016 will be a wake up call for many in the US, the US in the past 4 years has been immensely lucky that no major hurricane has struck or hurricane other than Arthur. This year with some of its analogs is looking like the Caribbean will wake up out of its 4 year slumber. People need to be on the lookout!

Joaquin was the epitome of one model showing it's superiority towards the others (you know which one). If it had not dove southward like the Euro forecasted, that monster would've been headed straight for the U.S because the trough was going to pull it in in similar to Sandy (not quite the same but similar). Luckily thanks to the high being so strong and nudging it southward so much, it took a bit longer for it to get pulled to north and thanks to that the timing of the trough couldn't have been better as it took the eastern side exit of the high rather than the western side, which would've been disastrous and would have happened if it didn't dive as far south as it did. Strength didn't have much to do with it, the high just wound up being stronger than most the models anticipated and it shoved that monster south.

Thank goodness because Joaquin combined with that trough (which was producing a huge rain event which caused a ton of flooding) would've destroyed NC or any coastline for that matter along the east coast. We may still be talking about it now if the Euro was not right, I'm so happy that monster missed us because the damage it produced in the Bahamas was bad enough, now add it up with the huge rain event, add the wind and storm surge, you'd get an unrecognizable coastline along a much more populated area.
Welcome back! How was your weather in the area today? Thanks


Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Personally I disagree with CSU I believe we are heading into what could be a very active hurricane season similar to 1998. Gulf & Caribbean I think will be hot spots to watch and these systems could be BIG. Reason I believe this is due to much lower trades across the Caribbean which should allow these Tropical Waves to Blossom once July comes a knockin.

I think Folks across the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast regions could be in big trouble this year. Again JMO.
Quoting 115. Dakster:

Hit 60F at my house today Ped... Spring is springing to life here in the last Frontier... Bears are waking up... Moose and baby moose are abound.
Hit 72.9F here today. Supposed to get very Windy.
It's been windy here on and off. Overall an awesome day. I love the cloud to almost cloudless days....

It's 10pm and still a little light out. The midnight sun is coming up quick.
I also take issue with these mathematical predictions based on assumptions. In 1992, I was living in Homestead, FL. Andrew was a downgraded tropical wave. In 36 hours, I had a Cat-5 passing overhead. Yes overhead because my house was ripped away. So, even with strong sheer, and a forward speed of 20Kts, strange things can occur. My guess, a few USA landfall storms and one major storm of Cat 4 or 5, FL. Way past due.
LQ
Quoting 131. DrQuarles:

I also take issue with these mathematical predictions based on assumptions. In 1992, I was living in Homestead, FL. Andrew was a downgraded tropical wave. In 36 hours, I had a Cat-5 passing overhead. Yes overhead because my house was ripped away. So, even with strong sheer, and a forward speed of 20Kts, strange things can occur. My guess, a few USA landfall storms and one major storm of Cat 4 or 5, FL. Way past due.
LQ


Yes... And Andrew is a painful reminder for me as well. I lost a lot in that storm too.
Quoting 132. Dakster
We know the power involved with major storms. 24 years is a very long time for some people. A slight 20 storm surge and modest 135-145 kph winds, will disrupt South Florida for months. There won't be any cell towers, Internet, communications. No ATM's or mail. No jobs or schools. It took months and months in 92.
134. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/Univ of Washington
AREA:: Trops - ePac to SE USofA
D&T:: 20160414;0800utc till 20160415;0530   SAT TYPE:: a customized filtered version no official product
OBS:: Though the moisture plumes from ENSO seems to be thinning, still watching for any ULL catalyst to interact and attract moisture northward towards SE USofA from GoMx  NOTE1:: (time intervals vary 120mins to 30mins)  NOTE2:: coulour-key could be off.
here 628x412 or 922x605 viaYOUTUBE https://youtu.be/RYzAK9o3g60
Here is one of the rip current survivor stories on the NOAA web page. Note that there was a tropical storm out Bermuda way.
It was August 2011, and a tropical storm had just passed but was well out to Bermuda. I was body surfing with my boogie board on Figure Eight Island, NC, with some surfers. The waves weren't breaking much closer to shore, so I decided to paddle out to where the surfers were in head deep water. Finally, a wave came that the surfers caught and rode. I was out for several more minutes expecting the surfers to return where I was. Instead they stayed in much closer to shore. I then realized that I couldn't hear the waves anymore. There were also bubbles on the surface all around me, but they didn't seem to be moving. I realized I was caught in a rip current.

I could see my wife and the beach umbrella getting smaller and smaller on the shore. She was looking in my direction, but never saw me waving for help. I tried to swim with the boogie board at first, but if you've ever tried to do that you know that won't work. I kept it with me though using the side stroke to swim. I watched the weather channel NOAA warnings and knew what to do when caught in a rip current. My training kicked in and I remember to swim along the shore for a while and then make my way back to shore. I was so exhausted when I made it to shore that I dropped. Nobody on the beach noticed what happened. I kissed the ground.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FANTALA (08-20152016)
10:00 AM RET April 15 2016
====================================
North of St. Brandon
Southeast of Agalega

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala (954 hPa) located at 12.3S 59.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
===========
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
---------------------------
12 HRS: 12.2S 58.0E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 11.9S 56.6E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 10.9S 54.0E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 10.0S 52.7E - 95 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
During the last 6 hours, cloud pattern improved with the return of an eye on satellite imagery, surrounded by cold cloud tops. Last microwave data confirms that, showing a deep convection ring all around the warm spot. Therefore, the system intensity is raised to intense tropical cyclone level. North northeasterly wind shear analyzed by the CIMSS at 0000z around 12 knots, does not seem to impact Fantala anymore, which still benefits from an excellent upper polar side divergence

The system keeps on tracking westward on the northern side of a high geopotential cell located between Madagascar and the Mascareignes islands. Friday, the gradual strengthening of this high should orientate the track a bit more northwestward. On Saturday, Fantala is forecast to transit a little less than 100 NM south of Agalega at the stage of intense tropical cyclone.

From Sunday, the system should be slowed by a ridge in its west and axed over the Mozambique channel, as the high centered over the Mascareignes weakens. Monday, the near equatorial ridge in the northeast will take over the steering flow and drive a sharp southeastward u-turn of the system. The most reliable numerical weather prediction models are in agreement and still forecast a narrow clockwise loop. However, the exact location of the turn remains uncertain as the 1200z ECMWF ensemble prediction run forecast a moderate risk that Fantala cross the Farqhar before doing its turn west of these islands. However among the deterministics no reliable model guidance suggest the crossing of the center in the archipelago.

Up to Tuesday, Fantala is likely to undergo rather conducive upper level environment. The northerly constraint should remain marginal while polar side divergence is expected to increase Sunday after a temporary decay Saturday. But, west of 55E, the lesser ocean heat content should become the limiting factor for the intensity of the system. Its influence will be all the more important if Fantala slows down and return on its previous track where waters are colder. Wednesday, a upper and mid levels trough arrives from the southwest and may induce a moderate northwesterly upper level constraint.
42 dead in Saudi, Yemen floods
Gulf Today, April 15, 2016
Riyadh: Over 40 people have died in heavy storm, rain and flooding in Saudi Arabia and Yemen during the week, it emerged on Thursday.
Saudi civil defence said 18 people have been killed during heavy rain and floods over the past week.
Heavy rainfall in several parts of Yemen has caused widespread flooding that killed at least 24 people and caused the collapse of small dams, including two in Hajja and Omran provinces north of the capital, Sanaa, security officials and the Interior Ministry said.
The ministry said on Thursday the 16 were killed over the past 24 hours, mostly in Omran and Hajja. ...
More see link above. Some photos and videos on EUStormMap.


Heavy rains are being blamed for the collapse of the Rouna Dam in Yemen's Omran province. (April 14)


Abha.

Saudi suffers severe flash floods
BBC Weather's Phil Avery has all the details and looks at the forecast for the region.
138. vis0
My imagination or are we getting lots of 6.0 quakes for a 7day period. (9, ~10)...watch the webnet fill with blog reports that planetX is getting closer and its gravitational field is yanking (in the utmost scientific use of that word) at Earth...hold on to yer aluminummahnummahnum caps!
El Salvador declares drought emergency for first time ever
Source: Reuters - Thu, 14 Apr 2016 22:32 GMT
SAN SALVADOR, April 14 (Reuters) - El Salvador declared a water shortage emergency for the first time in its history on Thursday, citing the effects of climate change and the El Niño phenomenon, the country's president said.
In the last four years, rainfall has decreased considerably in the Central American country, and river and water reserve levels have reached a critical state, President Salvador Sanchez Ceren said at a news conference. ...


Venezuela to ration malls, change clocks, to save power
Source: Reuters - Fri, 15 Apr 2016 00:16 GMT
CARACAS, April 14 (Reuters) - President Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday punitive electricity rationing would be imposed on 15 shopping malls and drought-hit Venezuela's time zone would also be modified to save power.
Many of the South American OPEC nation's 29 million people are suffering daily, unscheduled water and electricity cuts as levels recede at the Guri dam complex providing nearly two-thirds of power needs. ...


Weather in Europe: unstable airmasses with thunderstorms are torn into the southwest of the continent due to low "Petra" a "daughter" of the big Atlantic low "Ortrun" which is around for quite a while now.





Have a good morning abroad, everyone!
140. vis0
The following was 1 of 2 aniGIfs with ideas for another site.
Could not find a (working) link to send the creators of the site the ideas. Posting 1 here other on a Japanese site.


BTW 1 a block away (from 27th & 2nd Ave, Manhattan) that tree cutting group is back cutting tree limbs at 422 AM?!?!? EDT could hear 3 times the mulching machine mulching, no wind to tree damage in this area since Sandy. Trees are healthy. some do have long limbs but why come at weird hours and not do a tree in one visit?
Quoting 123. wunderkidcayman:



Nah just an extended period of -NAO should do the trick
no
Good morning.

The latest from the San Juan NWS about the big rain event for the Eastern Caribbean next week.

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STILL EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...UNDER TROUGH
ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY/PERSISTENT
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
Quoting 119. 882MB:

A little bit off topic here, but I have something I have to mention. I have always been so interested in the story of Titanic, and its demise. I say this now because at this same moment 104 years ago, Titanic was already sinking. May all those 1,500 people that perished Rest In Peace, Amen






That was sad, America almost had a greater tragedy earlier this spring when the Royal Caribbean ship Anthem of the seas almost sunk, the ship was taking in water from the waves in the Aft of the ship, the captain, spun her around causing a 45% listing of the ship, but he saved it by heading the ship into the waves. What was Royal thinking about in the first place putting the ship into such dangerous waters, folks on this blog commented 5 days prior this was a bad storm!
144. MahFL
WU still freezing my FireFox, grrrr.
145. MahFL
Quoting 143. trunkmonkey:



That was sad, America almost had a greater tragedy earlier this spring when the Royal Caribbean ship Anthem of the seas almost sunk, the ship was taking in water from the waves in the Aft of the ship, the captain, spun her around causing a 45% listing of the ship...


The ship did not list 45 degrees. It may have rolled 35 or so degrees, which is a completely different.
Quoting 145. MahFL:



The ship did not list 45 degrees. It may have rolled 35 or so degrees, which is a completely different.


Your probably right with your analogy, but the news reports were saying the 45 degrees listing, and we all know how they are always accurate!
Quoting 127. IDTH:


Joaquin was the epitome of one model showing it's superiority towards the others (you know which one). If it had not dove southward like the Euro forecasted, that monster would've been headed straight for the U.S because the trough was going to pull it in in similar to Sandy (not quite the same but similar). Luckily thanks to the high being so strong and nudging it southward so much, it took a bit longer for it to get pulled to north and thanks to that the timing of the trough couldn't have been better as it took the eastern side exit of the high rather than the western side, which would've been disastrous and would have happened if it didn't dive as far south as it did. Strength didn't have much to do with it, the high just wound up being stronger than most the models anticipated and it shoved that monster south.

Thank goodness because Joaquin combined with that trough (which was producing a huge rain event which caused a ton of flooding) would've destroyed NC or any coastline for that matter along the east coast. We may still be talking about it now if the Euro was not right, I'm so happy that monster missed us because the damage it produced in the Bahamas was bad enough, now add it up with the huge rain event, add the wind and storm surge, you'd get an unrecognizable coastline along a much more populated area.

The east coast as a whole is very very lucky. Captain Trough saved the day yet again! I always wondered, how did it keep on going southward when all the models were forecasting it to go north?
Joaquin showed that nature still trumps models in the 72 hour window of projections. It's now rare, but Joaquin showed how dangerous a major that voids a forecast path can be. Surely models showing a rapid showing a rapid switch to La-NIna aren't right. No way El-Nino flips that rapidly. Who knows though, this a'int our Grandfather's climate anymore. If that record collapse of El-Nino were to happen; then we'd be in for another insane year of climate. If I was betting on extremes, then betting the over has never been a better bet.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
ECMWF Weekly model is now seeing La Nina type conditions in the atmosphere. Anomalously dry conditions o/East Pac
Quoting 133. DrQuarles:

Quoting 132. Dakster
We know the power involved with major storms. 24 years is a very long time for some people. A slight 20 storm surge and modest 135-145 kph winds, will disrupt South Florida for months. There won't be any cell towers, Internet, communications. No ATM's or mail. No jobs or schools. It took months and months in 92.


I was there in 92 when Andrew hit; a direct hit of a major along the financial heart of the City (Brickell Avenue and Downtown Miami) would turn the clock back on the City to the 1920s for a few years........
The only model that showed Joaquin getting as remotely strong as it did and threatening land in the first place was the HWRF while all the others still showed dissipation of a weak T.D that would make a quick turn out to sea.Now I'll admit...I did laugh at the model at first but seeing its track record that season as the first to show Danny becoming a major it was a little bit concerning.The other models eventually caught on and while it may not have gotten the path correct of Joaquin going out to sea after the Bahamas it was the first to point out the storm becoming a beast.
s.florida got lucky with Francsis too. if she would continued west nearing the Bahamas instead of turning wnw she also could of been beastly. general area of Miami has been lucky for along time.
Quoting 150. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
ECMWF Weekly model is now seeing La Nina type conditions in the atmosphere. Anomalously dry conditions o/East Pac

When looking at rainfall anomaly on a 30 day average and at the majority of the equatorial Pacific, ESPI shot back up to 0.98. Though it was just coming off a good fall that signaled significant weakening of El Nino, it's next step up in it's overall cycling in a downward trend went higher than the previous high. I don't see neutral conditions in the next three weeks.
Quoting 88. Climate175:

After a cool and wet early April, it seems like the GFS is predicting that late April will go straight to hot, with highs in the mid-80s to 90s.


It's been cool but not real wet and I am starting to worry about dryness. I agree hot is in the cards. Models tend to underdo how fast a stagnant airmass can heat up under April sunshine with trees not yet leafed out.. don't know why since modern models' radiation codes are pretty good.

Also worried about some trees not leafing out because of freeze damage, reducing humidity and increasing sensible temperature. The 2007 summer drought in the mid atlantic is believed to have been enhanced by a severe April freeze in TN, AR and Western NC upstream of our area reducing available moisture in early summer for our air masses. That freeze killed a lot of climax hardwood (oaks) new growth and delayed greenup for several weeks.
Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:



I was there in 92 when Andrew hit; a direct hit of a major along the financial heart of the City (Brickell Avenue and Downtown Miami) would turn the clock back on the City to the 1920s for a few years........


Cat 3 moving NNW up the Potomac, track about 30 miles WSW of the river. My DC nightmare (apart from what happens every two years)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FANTALA (08-20152016)
16:00 PM RET April 15 2016
====================================
Northwest of St. Brandon
Southeast of Agalega

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala (938 hPa) located at 12.5S 58.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
===========
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
---------------------------
12 HRS: 12.4S 57.2E - 115 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 12.1S 55.5E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 10.7S 52.6E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 9.7S 51.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=================
During the last 24 hours, cyclone Fantala underwent a rapid intensification event. The deepening was particularly strong during the last hours, with the warming of the eye and cooling of the convective ring tops. Northerly vertical wind shear decay as suggested by the cloud pattern (analyzed at 0600z around 7 knots).

The system keeps on tracking westward on the northern side of a high geopotential cell located between Madagascar and the Mascareignes islands. Tomorrow, with the gradual strengthening of this high, it should orientate a bit more northwestward. On Saturday, Fantala is forecast to transit a little more than 100 NM south of Agalega at the stage of intense tropical cyclone. From Sunday and especially Monday, the near equatorial ridge in the northeast will take over the steering flow and drive a sharp southeastward u-turn of the system. The most reliable numerical weather prediction models are in agreement and still forecast a narrow clockwise loop. However, the exact location of the turn remains uncertain: last available guidance from the EURO and the American model tend to bring the center closer to the Farqhar archipelago.

Up to Tuesday, Fantala is likely to undergo rather conducive upper level environment. The northerly constraint should remain marginal while polar side divergence is expected to increase Sunday after a temporary decay Saturday. But, west of 55E, the lesser ocean heat content should become the limiting factor for the intensity of the system. Its influence will be all the more important if Fantala slows down and return on its previous track where waters are colder. Wednesday, a upper and mid levels trough arrives from the southwest and may induce a moderate northwesterly upper level constraint. After a temporary new deepening, it is likely to begin to weaken significantly.
Quoting 155. georgevandenberghe:



It's been cool but not real wet and I am starting to worry about dryness. I agree hot is in the cards. Models tend to underdo how fast a stagnant airmass can heat up under April sunshine with trees not yet leafed out.. don't know why since modern models' radiation codes are pretty good.

Also worried about some trees not leafing out because of freeze damage, reducing humidity and increasing sensible temperature. The 2007 summer drought in the mid atlantic is believed to have been enhanced by a severe April freeze in TN, AR and Western NC upstream of our area reducing available moisture in early summer for our air masses. That freeze killed a lot of climax hardwood (oaks) new growth and delayed greenup for several weeks.

Good morning George. You have good reason to be concerned about dryness. High pressure is forecast to park over a large part of the Eastern U .S.

Quoting 144. MahFL:

WU still freezing my FireFox, grrrr.


ALWAYS use chrome. Microsoft Edge if you're on Windows 10.

Toasty Time is coming, was 53.3F for a low this AM...
Maybe we'll skip the season entirely based on the Euro. I for one will jump on active cycle being over after this season. :0(
£500,000 tree-planting project helped Yorkshire town miss winter floods

Tree planting and other natural approaches have prevented flooding at Pickering in North Yorkshire over Christmas, at a time when heavy rainfall caused devastating flooding across the region.

An analysis of the Slowing the Flow scheme published on Wednesday concludes that the measures reduced peak river flow by 15-20% at a time when 50mm of rain fell on sodden ground in 36 hours. The scheme was set up in 2009 after the town had suffered four serious floods in 10 years, with the flooding in 2007 estimated to have caused about £7m of damage.

The work included planting 40,000 trees, 300 “leaky” dams and the restoration of heather moorland, all intended to slow the flow of water into the river and reduce its peak height. A new flood storage area was also set aside in fields near Newtondale. The project cost the government £500,000, significantly less than a proposed flood wall in the town.


Link
Quoting 145. MahFL:



The ship did not list 45 degrees. It may have rolled 35 or so degrees, which is a completely different.


The ship was a disaster in works for most of the trip.

These are the best tweets and Instagram photos from a Royal Caribbean cruise ship being damaged in a storm
Impact zones from Canes tell the story well.

Some Cat 5 areas of impact, like with Andrew, one can drive thru that impact Zone in 30 minutes.

Camille was also a small Cat5 as it damaged areas from Louisiana, Buras, to Pascagoula,Miss..but still, only a Half hour drive along Hwy 90.

As for Cat 3/4 Katrina in 05, the impact ran from Mobile bay to Houma Louisiana,..or a 3 hour stretch of east to west.



Katrina NOAA Base Relief Map with clickable thumbnails.

Week over week cooling quickly



Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:



I was there in 92 when Andrew hit; a direct hit of a major along the financial heart of the City (Brickell Avenue and Downtown Miami) would turn the clock back on the City to the 1920s for a few years........


A major Hurricane hitting a city like Miami would for certain disrupt things for a few months but in no way for a few years. Miami got hit by a cat.-4 storm in 1945 and Hurricane King, also a cat.-4 in 1950 and sprang back to life in just a few months. So don't tell me it would take years. Months mabey but not years. 1920's ? are you kidding?
Quoting 167. HurriHistory:



A major Hurricane hitting a city like Miami would for certain disrupt things for a few months but in no way for a few years. Miami got hit by a cat.-4 storm in 1945 and Hurricane King, also a cat.-4 in 1950 and sprang back to life in just a few months. So don't tell me it would take years. Months mabey but not years. 1920's ? are you kidding?
Conditions are different now. It is my belief if Miami was hit by a large , slow moving cat-4 or 5, city would be destroyed, and it would take years for rebuilding...Very similar to what happened in New Orleans...jmo
Unprecedented rainfalls cause flood in 11 provinces

”TEHRAN — 11 provinces in Iran have been struck by flood due to unprecedented rainfalls over the past days.

Drastic addition of water to the rivers after years of drought and water scarcity have resulted in overflow of the rivers in different provinces, Alireza Da’emi, deputy energy minister for planning, said on Thursday................... The deputy governor general of Khuzestan province, Ahmad Sayyahi, also said that over the past 72 hours 120 millimeters of rain has fallen and “we had to let 5,000 cubic meters of water out of Dez dam.


Link
Quoting 167. HurriHistory:



A major Hurricane hitting a city like Miami would for certain disrupt things for a few months but in no way for a few years. Miami got hit by a cat.-4 storm in 1945 and Hurricane King, also a cat.-4 in 1950 and sprang back to life in just a few months. So don't tell me it would take years. Months mabey but not years.


Good points but you have to consider the current concentration of wealth/banks/real estate/ and tourist dollars that flow into the City from people who travel there for vacations and buy condos/homes etc along the specific, and relatively small, geographic area I described (the economic base of the City); if a major did substantial damage to Downtown Miami and/or the South Beach/Miami Beach tourist corridor, you can put up the buildings again, but it would time and the economic impact would be felt for a few years..........................You know how much this area has changed since the 40's and 50's and where the current building/condo and tourism industry concentrates in this relative small area (as opposed to Andrew which missed the heart of the city but where 100,000 people lost their homes in the suburbs south of downtown). No, I am not kidding..................................
Quoting 168. hydrus:

Conditions are different now. It is my belief if Miami was hit by a large , slow moving cat-4 or 5, city would be destroyed, and it would take years for rebuilding...Very similar to what happened in New Orleans...jmo

Come come now my friend. Destroyed is a very harsh word. Miami has a very strong building code. Billions of dollars in damage could occur from a cat.-5 Hurricane hitting Miami for sure but Miami would not be destroyed. An example of that would be the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. Now that city was destroyed. Another thing is most landfalling storms along the SE Coast of Florida are not slow movers. When Andrew hit in 1992 the worst of the winds only lasted about 2 and a 1/2 hours.
From Brian McNoldy

9 hurricanes hit U.S. coast during 6 analog #hurricane seasons mentioned in #CSU forecast (http://goo.gl/iAZIDg )


Quoting 170. weathermanwannabe:



Good points but you have to consider the current concentration of wealth/banks/real estate/ and tourist dollars that flow into the City from people who travel there for vacations and buy condos/homes etc along the specific, and relatively small, geographic area I described (the economic base of the City); if a major did substantial damage to Downtown Miami and/or the South Beach/Miami Beach tourist corridor, you can put up the buildings again, but it would time and the economic impact would be felt for a few years..........................You know how much this area has changed since the 40's and 50's and where the current building/condo and tourism industry concentrates in this relative small area (as opposed to Andrew which missed the heart of the city but where 100,000 people lost their homes in the suburbs south of downtown). No, I am not kidding..................................


It would NOT turn the clock back in the city to the 1920's! That's going a little overboard, don't you think.
Quoting 173. HurriHistory:



It would NOT turn the clock back in the city to the 1920's! That's going a little overboard, don't you think.


I was kidding as to the 20's and agree that it was a meant to be a humorous overstatement but making the point; I thought you were also kidding in thinking that that there was any possible comparison between Miami in the 40's and 50's and at present or that 100,000 people loosing their homes was no big deal because the Cat 5 winds only lasted a few hours............................... :)
One has to hear the Sarah Palin rant against Bill Nye yesterday.

“Bill Nye is as much as scientist as I am. He’s a kids’ show actor, he’s not a scientist.”


Sarah Palin Throws First Insult At Bill Nye, And You’re Going To Crack Up Last Updated on April 14, 2016
Just posting an article on the issue of a major hitting the center of the city from 2013:

http://www.motherjones.com/miami-dodged-bullet-hu rricane-andrew

All told, Andrew had done more than $25 billion in damage. In Dade County alone, it killed 15 people, destroyed more than 25,000 homes, damaged many more, and left a quarter million people temporarily homeless.

But it could have been much worse. The storm made landfall south of the city proper, missing touristy Miami Beach and the downtown area, as well as the Port of Miami and the airport. And for all its power, it was relatively small. "Andrew was a compact system," says the summary on the National Hurricane Center's website. "A little larger system, or one making landfall just a few nautical miles further to the north, would have been catastrophic…"

Since then, the stakes have only gotten higher. More than 5.5 million people now live in metro Miami, and the seas have steadily risen. According to a report released in May by the real estate data company CoreLogic, 132,000 homes in Miami, worth $48 billion, are vulnerable to hurricane-driven storm-surge damage. With a one-foot rise in sea level, those numbers jump to 340,000 homes and $94 billion. The World Bank ranks Miami as the most climate vulnerable city in the world.

GFS trending more east with the rain non event for next week ;)
Quoting 174. weathermanwannabe:



I was kidding as to the 20's and agree that it was a meant to be a humorous overstatement but making the point; I thought you were also kidding in thinking that that there was any possible comparison between Miami in the 40's and 50's and at present or that 100,000 people loosing their homes was no big deal because the Cat 5 winds only lasted a few hours............................... :)

I was not kidding. Of course their is a vast difference in the number of people that were living in the Miami area in the years 1945-50 but still Miami was not a two-bit sleepie little town either. It was a major metropolitan complex for it's time and delt with each Hurricane the best they could and got through it, and their were many in the decade of the 1940s as we all know. Great advancments have been made in the last 65-years years in terms of dealing with a storm like a Camille or another Andrew and Stopping a City in it's tracks like Miami for several years just would not happen. After the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 Miami came back to life in less then 18-months and that was a bad storm. And yes, 100,000 people loosing their homes is always a big deal but the odds of a Cat.-5 Hurricane comming ashore off the Atlantic ocean along Miami Beach with a forward movment of 5-MPH or less and just sitting over the Miami area for several hours are extremely low.
181. MahFL
Not sure what happened to my weather forecast, we went from 90% chance of rain to a slight chance of rain....
Quoting 176. weathermanwannabe:

Just posting an article on the issue of a major hitting the center of the city from 2013:

http://www.motherjones.com/miami-dodged-bullet-hu rricane-andrew

All told, Andrew had done more than $25 billion in damage. In Dade County alone, it killed 15 people, destroyed more than 25,000 homes, damaged many more, and left a quarter million people temporarily homeless.

But it could have been much worse. The storm made landfall south of the city proper, missing touristy Miami Beach and the downtown area, as well as the Port of Miami and the airport. And for all its power, it was relatively small. "Andrew was a compact system," says the summary onthe National Hurricane Center's website. "A little larger system, or one making landfall just a few nautical miles further to the north, would have been catastrophic%u2026"

Since then, the stakes have only gotten higher. More than 5.5 million people now live in metro Miami, and the seas have steadily risen. According toa report released in Mayby the real estate data company CoreLogic, 132,000 homes in Miami, worth $48 billion, are vulnerable to hurricane-driven storm-surge damage. With a one-foot rise in sea level, those numbers jump to 340,000 homes and $94 billion. The World Bank ranks Miami as themost climate vulnerable city in the world.



I don't know where you are gettig your facts from but 5.5 million people DO NOT live in the metro Miami area. The Population of the Miami Dade County area including the city of Miami is just under 3-million. 5.5 million people, are you kidding man? Why if we had that many people were living here in metro Miami nobody would have any room to drive or even walk for that matter. 5.5million? why that's almost as many people that live in New York City. New York City has a population of about 9 million or so. Come on guy, get your facts right.
183. MahFL
Quoting 176. weathermanwannabe:

Just posting an article on the issue of a major hitting the center of the city from 2013.


A large slow moving Cat 4 hitting Miami would sure be interesting.
The Miami metropolitan area is defined as Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The total population was 6,012,331 in 2015.
Quoting 185. BaltimoreBrian:

The Miami metropolitan area is defined as Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The total population was 6,012,331 in 2015.


NO WAY! Broward and Palm Beach Counties have nothing to do with MiamiDade in terms of population. Florida has a total of 67 counties. Why don't just throw in a few more counties and we can increase the population of Miami up to 25 or 30 million for that matter. Why stop with just Broward and Palm Beach.
Quoting 182. HurriHistory:



I don't know where you are gettig your facts from but 5.5 million people DO NOT live in the metro Miami area. The Population of the Miami Dade County area including the city of Miami is just under 3-million. 5.5 million people, are you kidding man? Why if we had that many people were living here in metro Miami nobody would have any room to drive or even walk for that matter. 5.5million? why that's almost as many people that live in New York City. New York City has a population of about 9 million or so. Come on guy, get your facts right.
The Miami metropolitan area--that is, the area designated by the US Office of Management and Budget--currently houses a little over six million people. So there's that.

So far as how long the effects of a hurricane striking a major area are concerned, you'd do well to check with planners in, say, Miami and New Orleans. Parts of South Florida still show signs of Andrew, though that was 24 years ago, and the Crescent City is still nowhere done with Katrina's fallout. Keep in mind that the disruption caused by a major landfalling hurricane goes much deeper and far beyond just demolished homes and tattered trees; it disrupts almost everything, from the environment to population trends, from traffic patterns to urban planning; from housing prices to school placement, and so on. In other words, a big hurricane tearing into a big city is A Really Big Deal--no matter what anyone says.
178. HurriHistory
12:32 PM EDT on April 15, 2016

No problems with anyone here today by the way (not kidding) and enjoy how everyone keeps each other in check (and the stats in the article are not from me but from the writer). I appreciate your posts and am just noting that Miami is my hometown, many of my friends/family lost their homes/jobs when Andrew hit and that my elderly parents still live there and I am amazed at the amount of new development that keeps going up every few months in between my visits.

At the end of the day, if a major threatens Miami, I fly down asap, secure our properties, get my parents up to Tallahassee for the duration, and my parents go back (if they want to) when if/when they can to survey any damage to make the call whether to stay or liquidate.

We all know what the deal is and no one wishes a major hit on a populated area; however, we are currently beating the odds in terms of Florida and the Gulf coast and that streak of recent luck may run out in any given season between this one coming up and the next few ones.
Quoting 184. Patrap:

7.1 mag Earthquake, Southern Japan Mainland

The 6+ that hit not far SSW from there yesterday, so far killed 9, injured 1000 and caused 44,000 to be evacuated. There had been 120 aftershocks from that one as of this morning.

Quoting 186. HurriHistory:



NO WAY! Broward and Palm Beach Counties have nothing to do with MiamiDade in terms of population. Florida has a total of 67 counties. Why don't just throw in a few more counties and we can increase the population of Miami up to 25 or 30 million for that matter. Why stop with just Broward and Palm Beach.


A typical Miami-Dade centric response.

Aa far as it is concerned: the U.S. Office of Management and Budget designates the Miami-Dade Metropolitan area as Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL. Take it up with them.
HurriHistory, metropolitan areas are defined by the percentage of people who work who commute between different counties---if the number of commuters reach a certain percentage and a threshold number then adjoining counties are part of the same metropolitan area. In addition, the core county must contain a city of at least 50,000, and there are population density thresholds. But the main thing is the number of commuters between counties. It's not arbitrary.
Quoting 185. BaltimoreBrian:

The Miami metropolitan area is defined as Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The total population was 6,012,331 in 2015.


It seems the population has increased nearly 2 million since Hurricane Andrew in '92.

The next major storm impact would definitely hurt more.
8-(
194. 882MB
Fiji just doesn't seem to have a break from cyclones, and flooding this year.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5S 175.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 151011Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD FIJI WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.




Quoting 190. Skyepony:


The 6+ that hit not far SSW from there yesterday, so far killed 9, injured 1000 and caused 44,000 to be evacuated. There had been 120 aftershocks from that one as of this morning.


To be precise, the largest tremor is the main shock, so those 120 shakes subsequent to yesterday's are now to be considered foreshocks.

PAGER data says there's a 42% chance the latest quake will cause between $1 billion and $10 billion damage. Ouch...
I won't be posting article lists on Dr. Masters' blog anymore. Comment #527 in my blog explains why.
Quoting 191. daddyjames:



A typical Miami-Dade centric response.

Aa far as it is concerned: the U.S. Office of Management and Budget designates the Miami-Dade Metropolitan area as Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL. Take it up with them.


Ridiculous to say the least. You guys are getting off track. We were talking about a Major Hurricane Hitting the Greater Miami area, and not the three counties of MiamiDade, Broward and PalmBeach. The US Office of Mianagement and Budget have their brains where they sit if thats how they designate what the population of Miami is by including two other counties. Again we were talking about the effects of one storm on one city.
Quoting 192. BaltimoreBrian:

HurriHistory, metropolitan areas are defined by the percentage of people who work who commute between different counties---if the number of commuters reach a certain percentage and a threshold number then adjoining counties are part of the same metropolitan area. In addition, the core county must contain a city of at least 50,000, and there are population density thresholds. But the main thing is the number of commuters between counties. It's not arbitrary.

Sorry, it does not work that way when you are talking about a major Hurricane hitting a large city like Miami.
Quoting 187. Neapolitan:

The Miami metropolitan area--that is, the area designated by the US Office of Management and Budget--currently houses a little over six million people. So there's that.

So far as how long the effects of a hurricane striking a major area are concerned, you'd do well to check with planners in, say, Miami and New Orleans. Parts of South Florida still show signs of Andrew, though that was 24 years ago, and the Crescent City is still nowhere done with Katrina's fallout. Keep in mind that the disruption caused by a major landfalling hurricane goes much deeper and far beyond just demolished homes and tattered trees; it disrupts almost everything, from the environment to population trends, from traffic patterns to urban planning; from housing prices to school placement, and so on. In other words, a big hurricane tearing into a big city is A Really Big Deal--no matter what anyone says.
yep...The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was massive. I spoke with Chris Landsea many years ago. He said the the hurricane was one of the largest hurricanes ever to strike the U.S. (At least 750 miles wide). The hurricane force winds lasted over 24 hours. The entire southern third of Florida suffered severe damage. The report on fatalities was inaccurate, and the toll was found to be at least a 1000 dead. Storm surge was very high at all locations struck by the hurricane, including lake Okeechobee. 150 bodies were found in Moore Haven alone. The truth is Miami has never actually fully recovered. It was devastated by the storm, and the depression that hit in 1929 finished the job. The Great 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane did not help things either, leaving at least 2500 dead. I am not even including what happened in the Florida Panhandle, northern gulf coast, or the Bahamas, which suffered heavy damage and deaths.

Quoting 192. BaltimoreBrian:

HurriHistory, metropolitan areas are defined by the percentage of people who work who commute between different counties---if the number of commuters reach a certain percentage and a threshold number then adjoining counties are part of the same metropolitan area. In addition, the core county must contain a city of at least 50,000, and there are population density thresholds. But the main thing is the number of commuters between counties. It's not arbitrary.


I agree. I-75 and the Sawgrass Expressway coming into Miami-Dade County from Palm Beach and Broward Counties are considered among the top 10 busiest commutes.
Quoting 189. weathermanwannabe:

178. HurriHistory
12:32 PM EDT on April 15, 2016

No problems with anyone here today by the way (not kidding) and enjoy how everyone keeps each other in check (and the stats in the article are not from me but from the writer). I appreciate your posts and am just noting that Miami is my hometown, many of my friends/family lost their homes/jobs when Andrew hit and that my elderly parents still live there and I am amazed at the amount of new development that keeps going up every few months in between my visits.

At the end of the day, if a major threatens Miami, I fly down asap, secure our properties, get my parents up to Tallahassee for the duration, and my parents go back (if they want to) when if/when they can to survey any damage to make the call whether to stay or liquidate.

We all know what the deal is and no one wishes a major hit on a populated area; however, we are currently beating the odds in terms of Florida and the Gulf coast and that streak of recent luck may run out in any given season between this one coming up and the next few ones.



As a native of Miami for just over 50-years I can agree with you on that. I know what happened in the Middle Keys back in September of 1935 and it is possible for that to happen again anywhere along the east coast of Florida but the odds are very low. Everybody needs to stay prepared every year just in case as Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, rare as they may be, are a way of life here in the Sunshine state as earthquakes are over on the West Coast.
Quoting 199. hydrus:

yep...The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was massive. I spoke with Chris Landsea many years ago. He said the the hurricane was one of the largest hurricanes ever to strike the U.S. (At least 750 miles wide). The hurricane force winds lasted over 24 hours. The entire southern third of Florida suffered severe damage. The report on fatalities was inaccurate, and the toll was found to be at least a 1000 dead. Storm surge was very high at all locations struck be the hurricane, including lake Okeechobee. 150 bodies were found in Moore Haven alone. The truth is Miami has never actually fully recovered. It was devastated by the storm, and the depression that hit in 1929 finished the job. The Great 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane did not help things either, leaving at least 2500 dead. I am not even including what happened in the Florida Panhandle, northern gulf coast, or the Bahamas, which suffered heavy damage and deaths.




Miccosukee Indian lore speaks of people dying from snake bites carried into the area by that storm.
Quoting 197. HurriHistory:



Ridiculous to say the least. You guys are getting off track. We were talking about a Major Hurricane Hitting the Greater Miami area, and not the three counties of MiamiDade, Broward and PalmBeach. The US Office of Mianagement and Budget have their brains where they sit if thats how they designate what the population of Miami is by including two other counties. Again we were talking about the effects of one storm on one city.
You'll have to take that up with the feds. But let's accept your premise, and say that we'll only include the cities themselves, and none of the surrounding metro area. Imagine, then, a Cat 5 coming ashore in downtown Miami. You know, Andrew, but 20 miles north. (Or, for that matter, ripping through downtown Fort Lauderdale). There'd be tens (or even hundreds) of billions of dollars in immediate damage, which is bad enough. But such a storm would drive away a large number of people for years, and even quite a few forever. It would drive away businesses. It would drive away tourism. It would decimate the airport and the seaport, along with all the surrounding infrastructure. It would lead to reallocations of government expenditures, affecting schools and highways, and disturbing planning decisions that wold affect the area for decades.

The problem with your "talking about the effects of one storm on one city" when it comes to a major area like South Florida is that the "one city" doesn't end where you cross from one map boundary to another; everything and everyone is tied together . So you wreck "just" Miami, or "just" Fort Lauderdale, or "just" Palm Beach, you've definitely caused long-term disruption the entire area from Homestead to Jupiter.

And that's all I've got to say about that...
Quoting 201. HurriHistory:



...I know what happened in the Middle Keys back in September of 1935 and it is possible for that to happen again anywhere along the east coast of Florida but the odds are very low...
The National Hurricane Center says the return period for major hurricanes in Miami is 14 years, meaning that in any given year there's a 1-in-14, or 7.1%, chance of a major hitting there. If slot machines would hit the jackpot with those kind of odds, I'd move to Vegas... ;-)
Its a daunting proposition over the longer-term for any of the coastal cities (or smaller towns or villages for that matter) around the world which are threatened by sea level rise and/or which also lie in areas prone to tropical cyclones. On the one hand, you have the issue of a "slow demise" of sorts based upon gradual sea level rise which causes flooding during high tides and can contaminate coastal fresh water supplies/aquifers versus a quick demise (whether temporary or more permanent) if a major storm impacts causing massive building destruction both from increased surge on the coast and wind speed damage on the coast and further inland. It's not pretty either way as we look towards the future for coastal communities and particularly in the tropics around the world.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 204. Neapolitan:

The National Hurricane Center says the return period for major hurricanes in Miami is 14 years, meaning that in any given year there's a 1-in-14, or 7.1%, chance of a major hitting there. If slot machines would hit the jackpot with those kind of odds, I'd move to Vegas... ;-)

You think they wouldn't adjust the stakes?
Dosen't have to be a Cat 5, as Houston was wrecked with massive flooding as well as parts of Se La too from TS Allison in 2001. And it remains the only Atlantic Tropical Storm name to have been retired.



I also note Cat 1 Isaac in 2012 here as the flood protection held for 2 days easily, but the areas outside to the Nwest,Laplace suffered massive flooding and South of Nola, Braithwaite were devastated by surge flooding.

210. vis0

Quoting 103. pureet1948:



GFS now projecting 5"of rain for Houston metro instead of the 9" in the 12z run.

Still, as Charlie Brown says:




The content of the aniGIF does not represent the views of anyone e;se but the nut (vis0) that posted it.

CREDIT:: (DISCLAIMER- Info is pulled from wikkipedia pages)

Charlie Brown's half, goes to Charkles Schultz || Good 'n Plenty portion; jingle - Russ Alben,  tune based on song "The Ballad of Casey Jones", and ...crushed insects? mmm deeelicious. (hey they where when i ate them(1960s), box and all.  For a kid too much sugar?   Not to worry as a kid (age 6-8) i'd then eat an entire red box (salt and all) of Sun-e-Boy pumpkin seeds....EVERY SUNDAY as my treat for going to Sunday school and keeping my questioning mouth shut.

Using ArtLic for this comment.


it might fall in the ocean/GoMx but remember to be on the look out when predicts of extreme low 2 days before that extreme enters the AOI of my majeekal-device. good n plenty might become bad and overwhelmingly, but for now prediction say AT MOST 5 inches.
Another example. 48" reported just north of San Antonio in the Texas Hill Country (which is very rocky and hilly topography). Extreme flash flooding and loss of life from the event.



As survivor of Hurricane Andrew, living in So. Dade County, Damage in the City of Miami was much less than just 30 miles south. If Andrew tracked just a fraction north, Miami and South Beach would have been wiped out. My house was made of brick and strong on 17 acres of land. After Andrew, everything was gone. During the storm 2 inch nails ripped off rooftops making a Velcro ripping sound. I lived, I don't know how or why. Our area was considered farm land, and we all had horses. Even so, a Cat 5 is the most unbelievable force and Miami Dade simply will see mass destruction. You can't really do much with a uninformed, unfamiliar to hurricane population.
Population (Miami/Miami-Dade)
1990 1,937,094 19.1%
2000 2,253,362 16.3%
2010 2,496,435 10.8%
Est. 2014 2,662,874 6.7%