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CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2011

A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.

2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.

3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.

FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.

Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.

A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.


Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.

Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Chemtrails?
What's the purpose? To seed the clouds to rain? Possibly poison us in the process to some extent, or something more?
1502. alfabob
There is a small hole showing up on RGB that has been in the same spot over the loop current for the last 3 frames, this could get interesting if that is what I think it is.
Quoting Tazmanian:




i this wanted too make sure my good sir



No prob, Taz, although, I am now curious about this JFV character, who is he/she? Does this person blog in here, or....?
Quoting alfabob:
There is a small hole showing up on RGB that has been in the same spot over the loop current for the last 3 frames, this could get interesting if that is what I think it is.


Where are you seeing this hole?
1508. Walshy
The Caribbean disturbance looks large compared to 93L.

1510. alfabob
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Chemtrails?
What's the purpose? To seed the clouds to rain? Possibly poison us in the process to some extent, or something more?

Putting sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect the suns rays while trapping in the internally produced heat (advertising for a net loss of heat)? Well at least that is what the literature says, if it is going on though it is more likely to make someone money; because it is one of the worst ideas for climate change mitigation that I have heard so far. I guess you can consider what is used for cloud seeding as chemtrails also, but that would be for producing rain. What I notice sometimes are some spots where the same plane loops around a few times and stays on the same line that they are spraying. Some of them turn out to be like black-faint clouds floating through the sky; I've even watched it up-close and saw particulates falling from it. Even on high pressure days "contrails" are showing up, only time I don't see them is when shear is to high for them to fly.
Quoting kmanislander:


You joined yesterday eh ??. So what was the handle before then ?
i give ya a clue HTB ring of new tune
93L sped up too much. It took 6hrs to cross FL, it's traveled 3Xs that distance in the last 6.
1513. alfabob
Quoting texwarhawk:


Where are you seeing this hole?

Well on the image I posted its in the southern half of the convection, the frame before it there is a little bit of cloud cover (still visible though), and you can see it again on the one before that. Link
1514. Bitmap7
Could someone please do the honors on updating the blog with the 00z gfs runs please?
Hello everyone back for another hurricane season see there are two areas of disturbed weather out there one in the gulf and one that i am keeping my eye on in the caribbean the gulf one is dead just traveling too fast and dry air is choking it at the moment so no development the one down south is the one to watch shear is becoming favorable the water is warm but it will take time to get going though as most of these systems often do. i hope i can contribute to this blog more than i did last year.
Quoting alfabob:

Well on the image I posted its in the southern half of the convection, the frame before it there is a little bit of cloud cover (still visible though), and you can see it again on the one before that. Link


can you give lat--lon please it's easier to understand what convection you are talking about because I see 3 large convection balls lol
xx/xx/93l
1518. alfabob
Quoting texwarhawk:


can you give lat--lon please it's easier to understand what convection you are talking about because I see 3 large convection balls lol

On 93L? I haven't really been watching the Caribbean today. I noticed multiple vorticity in the afternoon and decided it needed more time to develop. It would be interesting though if the hole with 93L sticks around on the next frame, I don't see it on IR.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Did anyone see this?


STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

from the Oklahoma outbreak last week
Is that our 5th EF-5 of the year???

All we need is one more EF-5 Tornado to tie the most EF-5s in a year. We already had the most expensive tornado, one of the deadliest tornadoes and tornado seasons, most tornadoes in a day, in two days, in three days, in four days, in a month, and are on our way to most tornadoes in a season...

Not to mention tornadoes touching down in Massachusetts and California today?

Whatta year for tornadoes.
Hi Keeps, nice talking to you earlier on tonight, ^_^.
Quoting alfabob:

On 93L? I haven't really been watching the Caribbean today. I noticed multiple vorticity in the afternoon and decided it needed more time to develop. It would be interesting though if the hole with 93L sticks around on the next frame, I don't see it on IR.


Ok I see now lol. I agree it is interesting but I think due to the fast forward movement, it won't be able to get its act together before landfall in the next day or two.

The Caribbean system has really beefed up this evening and sheer continues to drop over the region:



Quoting alfabob:
I still don't understand why NHC gives a storm a higher chance when it doesn't look that great, and then after it has convection going for a while they lower it. 93L was at 30% before the coast, and is probably around twice (x2.5 even) the size now and back over water; but for some reason 10%. Just wait until the LLC and MCV become fully detached and the winds start wrapping around better.. that is what they are calling a trough.

I did find it funny that it had a 20% chance while overland, and then a 10% chance once it reemerged over water.

But time is running out. this little blob that could is chugging really fast and, as a result, it will be back over land soon. Keep in mind, tropical systems dont form overnight and certainly don't get names overnight, as the NHC often likes to wait a little even if a feature is exhibiting tropical storm characteristics.

So although sheer and SSTs are favorable, time is running out. Additionally, although the environment is not as dry as the water vapor is showing



it is still fairly dry

Quoting alfabob:

Putting sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect the suns rays while trapping in the internally produced heat (advertising for a net loss of heat)? Well at least that is what the literature says, if it is going on though it is more likely to make someone money; because it is one of the worst ideas for climate change mitigation that I have heard so far. I guess you can consider what is used for cloud seeding as chemtrails also, but that would be for producing rain. What I notice sometimes are some spots where the same plane loops around a few times and stays on the same line that they are spraying. Some of them turn out to be like black-faint clouds floating through the sky; I've even watched it up-close and saw particulates falling from it. Even on high pressure days "contrails" are showing up, only time I don't see them is when shear is to high for them to fly.


I think your right about the money. If you have any weather modifying plans be sure to file the proper paperwork with COMMERCE/NOAA-8.
1524. scott39
That is a classic "home brew" in the Caribbean! I am going with the high end on the # of TCs for the 2011 season.
what is going on with the weather? June, no way....................

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OUR COAST ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SAN FRANCISCO NORTHWARD
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AND HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS
COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 2 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL TO
THE SOUTH.
Night all...
Quoting Bitmap7:


Thats a decent drop in pressure. Visible organisation should soon follow suite. As well as a possible upgrade from the nhc o invest by tomorrow. If they acknowledge the pressure drop.



It was at 1006.9 last night about the same time so, a 2mb drop assuming the reading is accurate. The low is in the general area, hard to pick out exactly where.
Related articles...


Quoting alfabob:

Putting sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect the suns rays while trapping in the internally produced heat (advertising for a net loss of heat)? Well at least that is what the literature says.....


Scientist Offers Better Ways to Engineer Earth's Climate to Prevent Dangerous Global Warming

ScienceDaily (Sep. 6, 2010) %u2014 There may be better ways to engineer the planet's climate to prevent dangerous global warming than mimicking volcanoes, a University of Calgary climate scientist says in two new studies.

"Releasing engineered nano-sized disks, or sulfuric acid in a condensable vapor above the Earth, are two novel approaches. These approaches offer advantages over simply putting sulfur dioxide gas into the atmosphere," says David Keith, a director in the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy and a Schulich School of Engineering professor.....

Link

Geoengineering: How to Cool Earth--At a Price

Global warming has become such an overriding emergency that some climate experts are willing to consider schemes for partly shielding the planet from the sun's rays. But no such scheme is a magic bullet....
Link

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= geoengineering-how-to-cool-earth
Quoting Bitmap7:
Could someone please do the honors on updating the blog with the 00z gfs runs please?


So far it's up to day 8 and doesn't do much with it. Very weak on this run, keeping the system a broad area of low pressure. This can probably be attributed at least in part due to the ongoing convection to the east, associated with a tropical wave. I guess it robs some of the energy from it and thus it never really gets going.

I did notice something rather interesting on this run, though: the trough appears to be farther east and less amplified, not only failing to push the system out to sea, but the weakness closes pretty fast too. Here it is at 120 hours:



EDIT: Nevermind. Apparently the model still foresees a large enough weakness at 500 mb to sufficiently recurve the system. Here it is at 192 hours:

1530. scott39
I wonder why the number of 2011 TCs predictions are lower than last years.....Yet there seems to be overall better ingredients in the forecast this year.
Quoting scott39:
I wonder why the number of 2011 TCs predictions are lower than last years.....Yet there seems to be overall better ingredients in the forecast this year.


Fading La Nina.
1532. alfabob
Quoting Skyepony:


I think your right about the money. If you have any weather modifying plans be sure to file the proper paperwork with COMMERCE/NOAA-8.

Ha its amazing how out in the open things are, I've even found companies on google that specialize in cloud seeding and such. No one admitting to the sulfur part though; but I watched a conference/fora thing on climate change, and this was their big idea (like their going to keep the public up to date on their big projects that could end up poisoning everything with barium and aluminum). I'm just hoping that they realize that this is going to end up making things worse, because all we really need are some high-tech solar cells and we would be set with climate change mitigation; of course it wouldn't be some repetitive/wasteful process making some rich guy richer though.
1533. Bitmap7
Quoting KoritheMan:


So far it's up to day 8 and doesn't do much with it. Very weak on this run, keeping the system a broad area of low pressure. This can probably be attributed at least in part due to the ongoing convection to the east, associated with a tropical wave. I guess it robs some of the energy from it and thus it never really gets going.

I did notice something rather interesting on this run, though: the trough appears to be farther east and less amplified, not only failing to push the system out to sea, but the weakness closes pretty fast too. Here it is at 120 hours:



Thank you. When does the Nogaps start?
XX/XX/XX

NEAR 0 PERCENT
1535. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Fading La Nina.
So less TCs than last season...But more potiential to hit land?
1536. skook
Link

NHK World

Snow on Fukushima peaks found to be radioactive

Snow in the mountains in Fukushima Prefecture is showing radioactive contamination at levels above the safety limit for drinking water.

Researchers from Fukushima University performed the analysis with a local environmental group. They sampled snow in 31 locations and at different altitudes from 7 peaks around Fukushima city, from mid-April through early May.

The results showed that snow in 14 locations contained more than 200 becquerels per kilogram of radioactive cesium, the adult safe limit for drinking water.

A sample of snow from an altitude of 1,300 meters contained 3,000 becquerels of cesium.

Fukushima University Vice-President Akira Watanabe specializes in meteorology and says the data support his team's analysis that radioactive substances scattered at an altitude of 1,300 meters.

He is urging mountain climbers not to drink river water or gather edible wild plants, now that high levels of radioactivity in the snow have been confirmed.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011 15:40 +0900 (JST)
Quoting KoritheMan:


So far it's up to day 8 and doesn't do much with it. Very weak on this run, keeping the system a broad area of low pressure. This can probably be attributed at least in part due to the ongoing convection to the east, associated with a tropical wave. I guess it robs some of the energy from it and thus it never really gets going.

I did notice something rather interesting on this run, though: the trough appears to be farther east and less amplified, not only failing to push the system out to sea, but the weakness closes pretty fast too. Here it is at 120 hours:



EDIT: Nevermind. Apparently the model still foresees a large enough weakness at 500 mb to sufficiently recurve the system. Here it is at 192 hours:



Does it show anything afterwards? =(.
1538. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XX

NEAR 0 PERCENT
Another flaming ball bites the dust!!
XX/XX/XX
1540. scott39
93L BTD...A potiential TC or TC should never RIP!
Quoting HotBreeze:
Hi Keeps, nice talking to you earlier on tonight, ^_^.



nic try not fooled me at all you keeper did not tell me a thing i found out on my own you been reported too wounder blog admin for bypassing bans



if i was admin you be long gone by now
1542. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XX


TW firing up nicely, while our low sits with "little clothes" near the coast of Central America.
Quoting scott39:
So less TCs than last season...But more potiential to hit land?


Indeed. Neutral's tend to focus development further west in the MDR (Main Development Region)in the Atlantic, thus increasing the risk to the Caribbean and the US. Due in part to a stronger Atlantic ridge increasing the trade winds in the eastern Atlantic. I've read a couple papers on the subject which state neutral years significantly decrease the chances of a storm hitting the east coast north of Florida's latitude. I find it interesting that CSU's new forecast's analog years mostly target the upper east coast.
1544. alfabob
Quoting scott39:
So less TCs than last season...But more potiential to hit land?
theoretically, yes.
Quoting skook:
Link

NHK World

Snow on Fukushima peaks found to be radioactive

Snow in the mountains in Fukushima Prefecture is showing radioactive contamination at levels above the safety limit for drinking water.

Researchers from Fukushima University performed the analysis with a local environmental group. They sampled snow in 31 locations and at different altitudes from 7 peaks around Fukushima city, from mid-April through early May.

The results showed that snow in 14 locations contained more than 200 becquerels per kilogram of radioactive cesium, the adult safe limit for drinking water.

A sample of snow from an altitude of 1,300 meters contained 3,000 becquerels of cesium.

Fukushima University Vice-President Akira Watanabe specializes in meteorology and says the data support his team's analysis that radioactive substances scattered at an altitude of 1,300 meters.

He is urging mountain climbers not to drink river water or gather edible wild plants, now that high levels of radioactivity in the snow have been confirmed.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011 15:40 +0900 (JST)


It's going to be a dead zone before all is said and done, really sad....
1547. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Indeed. Neutral's tend to focus development further west in the MDR (Main Development Region)in the Atlantic, thus increasing the risk to the Caribbean and the US. Due in part to a stronger Atlantic ridge increasing the trade winds in the eastern Atlantic. I've read a couple papers on the subject which state neutral years significantly decrease the chances of a storm hitting the east coast north of Florida's latitude. I find it interesting that CSU's new forecast's analog years mostly target the upper east coast.
Maybe Bastardi works for the CSU! Thanks for the info.
Hey... be carefull with that recline button.... please ....

Airplane annoyance leads to brouhaha in the skies over D.C.
Washington Post
- Wed Jun 1, 11:28 am ET

Before things got out of hand, it was a typical annoyance that happens once a flight gets airborne: A passenger hit the recline button and sent his seat intimately close to the lap of the guy sitting behind him.

What followed wasn%u2019t typical at all: a smack to the head, peacemakers diving about the cabin to intervene and a pair of Air Force F-16 fighter jets scrambling into the night skies over Washington.

It happened late Sunday, just after a United Airlines Boeing 767 bound for Ghana with 144 passengers took off from Dulles International Airport......

Link
Quoting Bitmap7:


Thank you. When does the Nogaps start?


I don't closely follow NOGAPS like I do the GFS, so I really don't know. Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.
1550. EricSFL
Quoting JLPR2:


TW firing up nicely, while our low sits with "little clothes" near the coast of Central America.


One would think the developing low to be located in the vicinity of Jamaica and Haiti since most convection is located there. The area even appears to have a banding feature to its north.
1551. Bitmap7
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't closely follow NOGAPS like I do the GFS, so I really don't know. Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.


No problem. Thanks for your analysis. That gfs needs to make up its mind soon imo. Each run varies from one extreme to the next. I would like to see the ukmet , but its now banned from the moe.met.fsu site apparently.
Goodnight folks, I am out.
1552. alfabob
Quoting TomTaylor:



I did find it funny that it had a 20% chance while overland, and then a 10% chance once it reemerged over water.

But time is running out. this little blob that could is chugging really fast and, as a result, it will be back over land soon. Keep in mind, tropical systems dont form overnight and certainly don't get names overnight, as the NHC often likes to wait a little even if a feature is exhibiting tropical storm characteristics.

So although sheer and SSTs are favorable, time is running out. Additionally, although the environment is not as dry as the water vapor is showing



it is still fairly dry


Yea I know they don't form that fast but this one had a little bit of a head start and that MCV really helped it move over land without dissipating. I think the upper atmosphere anti-cyclone has been key to 93L; even though dry air has been surrounding it, the anti-cyclone has been moving right with it keeping all the dry air outside of the convection. Really think it is going through some type of transition right now though, but I guess the anti-cyclone isn't exactly stacked according to CIMSS so it could be collapsing; should be able to tell soon. Just very strange that it would survive the cooler waters, land, more cool waters then fall apart when it hits the jackpot.
1553. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:


One would think the developing low to be located in the vicinity of Jamaica and Haiti since most convection is located there. The area even appears to have a banding feature to its north.


Yeah, but the strongest vort is at the Central America coast, where the latest surface map showed our low.
Maybe the TW will end up getting a spin and eating the weak low.
Quoting EricSFL:


One would think the developing low to be located in the vicinity of Jamaica and Haiti since most convection is located there. The area even appears to have a banding feature to its north.



Pressures are still high in the area, not a concern ATM. The wave is entering a region ripe with moisture and energy. Not saying it can't develop as some models are hinting but, it's not showing any signs at the surface.

Quoting EricSFL:


One would think the developing low to be located in the vicinity of Jamaica and Haiti since most convection is located there. The area even appears to have a banding feature to its north.


Thats all misleading. All surface observations and low level vorticity analysis indicate the developing low resides off the Central Nicaraguan coast.
1556. JLPR2
Well off to study for my last marketing exam -.-
1am isn't exactly the best study time, but ehh...

I'm out for two hours. :P
93L is done. Pressure up to 1016 and the high just to it's west is 1019.
1558. xcool
rip 93L POOF .
1559. Levi32
0z CMC has a hurricane in the NW Caribbean by Day 6.

FSU finally got around to fully discontinuing UKMET imagery. The 0z UKMET looks weaker but still has a 1003mb tropical storm in the NW Caribbean by day 6, still fairly consistent.



Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
93L is done. Pressure up to 1016 and the high just to it's west is 1019.


Not surprising at all. Expected it to collapse when it exited out over the Gulf of Mexico.
xx/xx/xx
1562. xcool
GFS 00Z shows nooo development
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, but the strongest vort is at the Central America coast, where the latest surface map showed our low.
Maybe the TW will end up getting a spin and eating the weak low.


Once shear relaxes, all of that mess will move westward and colocate with the low pressure. It really is a big mess right now.
1564. Levi32
The wave is stringing out the Caribbean low as we knew it would. This will postpone the consolidation process. We still have many days to wait for this system.

Goodnight all. 'Til tomorrow.
out till the am
1568. EricSFL
HB = Offensive and intolerable.
Quoting EricSFL:
HB = Offensive and intolerable.


Seems like he hitted the Recline button... and a pair of Air Force F-16 fighter jets took action... BeeedTiiime
1572. alfabob
93L has used the convection to the north and wrapped it around itself like I said it probably would, may still have some surprises in-store for everyone; I just wouldn't be so quick to say that it is dead as of right now, seems like it wants to broaden around the loop current for a little bit while the rest caches up.
Quoting HotBreeze:



Si la ignorancia es dicha usted debe ser un campista feliz.
Quoting scott39:I wonder why the number of 2011 TCs predictions are lower than last years.....Yet there seems to be overall better ingredients in the forecast this year.
Last year we had a true La Nina. Of the three different ENSO phases, the La Nina phase creates the most active Atlantic hurricane season. Followed by neutral years, and then El Nino years. This year we have more like neutral conditions. Additionally, SSTs are cooler this year relative to last year.

However, several things are still in favor of an above average season...

1. It is an ENSO neutral year...which is typically more busy than an El Nino year

2. SSTs are above average

3. Relative to other basins, our basin is the warmest anomaly-wise.

4. Models (ECMWF and CFS...the UKMET predicts otherwise) are predicting a wetter environment and lower pressures relative to average over the MDR and Cape Verde area. This is most likely due to the cooling waters over the Gulf of Guinea. Forecasted sheer over the Atlantic is also supposed to be below average accordingto the CFS (UKMET and ECMWF have no forecast on sheer)

5. Analog years are mostly above average
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Indeed. Neutral's tend to focus development further west in the MDR (Main Development Region)in the Atlantic, thus increasing the risk to the Caribbean and the US. Due in part to a stronger Atlantic ridge increasing the trade winds in the eastern Atlantic. I've read a couple papers on the subject which state neutral years significantly decrease the chances of a storm hitting the east coast north of Florida's latitude. I find it interesting that CSU's new forecast's analog years mostly target the upper east coast.
Well they significantly decrease the odds relative to La Nina years, but they're about equal to the odds during El Nino years.
I guess some like it hot...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting Levi32:
 We still have many days to wait for this system.
It should be noted that the longer it takes to develop, the greater the window of opportunity into the Gulf.
1580. xcool
hmmm
Quoting xcool:
hmmm


"hmm" is right.
New convection firing in 93L

Is there anyone left on her btw?
1583. xcool
lol
1584. alfabob
Pressure dropping still in the region, wonder what it will look like in a few hours.

1585. xcool
1587. ackee
I dont think the the area of LOW pressure in the SW CARRB will be much more that a big rain maker ,also it seem like there is another low near jamaica and haiti as well.
I put out a new Blog Update
Also convection seems to be firing near the COC(?) on 93L
Quoting TomTaylor:
Last year we had a true La Nina. Of the three different ENSO phases, the La Nina phase creates the most active Atlantic hurricane season. Followed by neutral years, and then El Nino years. This year we have more like neutral conditions. Additionally, SSTs are cooler this year relative to last year.

However, several things are still in favor of an above average season...

1. It is an ENSO neutral year...which is typically more busy than an El Nino year

2. SSTs are above average

3. Relative to other basins, our basin is the warmest anomaly-wise.

4. Models (ECMWF and CFS...the UKMET predicts otherwise) are predicting a wetter environment and lower pressures relative to average over the MDR and Cape Verde area. This is most likely due to the cooling waters over the Gulf of Guinea. Forecasted sheer over the Atlantic is also supposed to be below average accordingto the CFS (UKMET and ECMWF have no forecast on sheer)

5. Analog years are mostly above average


In recent decades, there has been no discernible difference between La Nina years and ENSO neutral years, with regard to the Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting ackee:
I dont think the the area of LOW pressure in the SW CARRB will be much more that a big rain maker ,also it seem like there is another low near jamaica and haiti as well.


Why not? Environmental conditions will be favorable and all of the models have been developing it for almost a week now. Shouldn't be a very strong storm, but it has a fairly good chance of becoming one.


Very true. The last hurricane season La Nina was 2007, and the following year, which was neutral, had slightly more activity. And there's the obvious 2005, which was neutral.
expect we will see more problems with nhc all their shear maps ext as the money runs out. nhc is having problems with their website now
1594. ackee
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Why not? Environmental conditions will be favorable and all of the models have been developing it for almost a week now. Shouldn't be a very strong storm, but it has a fairly good chance of becoming one.
I know but looking outside of model suport dont see much sign of tropical devlopment I have seen invest before with model suport and good envormental condtion that has not devlop ,before that what I think will happen here just my view on things
1595. aquak9
good morning all, another cloudless sunrise here in NE Fla.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS S FL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THEN SHIFT TO S FL BY MONDAY AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE N ATLANTIC. THIS PROCESS WILL SHIFT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION AND
THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AS TYPICALLY OCCURS BY EARLY JUNE. THE 00Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT AT JUST OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS FAR BELOW THE
EARLY JUNE NORMAL OF AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE
PWAT REMAINING AT JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE BUT THIS
IS ONLY DUE TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS S FLORIDA. SO IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
Patience is something we all need for this storm.

Storms in June and July are slow to develop overall. We need to wait till all the right conditions are ready to make a storm out of the low pressure that's trying to develop itself already.

It's going to be another Alex type scenario most likely. We will have to wait and see.

Also, don't be disheartened by the NHC's 10% because that only means that the storm has only 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.
femas almost broke
1600. aquak9
Quoting islander101010:
femas almost broke

Red Cross stretched pretty thin, too.
1601. MahFL
Smokey here in downtown JAX.
1602. Gearsts
Models show the blob south of haiti moving towards the E then later on ENE towards the west tip of PR and just north of PR they develop it in to a weak TS
The main focus point of the disturbance is just off the coast of Nicaragua.
1604. IKE
Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 5 and 10 mph.

Ah yes....another scorching early June day.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

And another.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming south
southwest around 5 mph.

A 20%'er!!!! Yeehaw!
Good morning,

Lower Convergence

Good morning. As Levi said earlier, the Caribbean mess will take time to start to consolidate,but before that occurs ,if it does, plenty of rain will continue to fall in the area and the flooding concerns increase. As our friend Ike posts the numbers, is still 0/0/0.
Quoting AllStar17:
The main focus point of the disturbance is just off the coast of Nicaragua.


Yes, but some models are taking the convection to the east, associated with a tropical wave, north-eastwards and developing it a little.
I hear ya Ike. Over here on the east coast of Central Florida we averaged less than 1/2 inch of rain from 93L yesterday and that was the best we've done in a long time.
1609. aquak9
Ike's brain is gonna melt.

work-warp - -
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Patience is something we all need for this storm.

Storms in June and July are slow to develop overall. We need to wait till all the right conditions are ready to make a storm out of the low pressure that's trying to develop itself already.

It's going to be another Alex type scenario most likely. We will have to wait and see.

Also, don't be disheartened by the NHC's 10% because that only means that the storm has only 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.


Yesterday the NHC said that conditions would become more favorable on Thursday. Now today they are saying that conditions will become more favorable after 48 hours. I said it on Monday and I still believe it today, this system is not going to develop. We see it too often with early systems trying to get organized. Atmospheric conditions just won't allow it to happen.
1611. IKE

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yesterday the NHC said that conditions would become more favorable on Thursday. Now today they are saying that conditions will become more favorable after 48 hours. I said it on Monday and I still believe it today, this system is not going to develop. We see it too often with early systems trying to get organized. Atmospheric conditions just won't allow it to happen.
You may wind up being correct. I said invest my Monday night or Tuesday....wrong.

0-0-0.

................................................. .................................................. .........
Looks headed east of north. I doubt this is ever a GOM threater.....



1612. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:

You may wind up being correct. I said invest my Monday night or Tuesday....wrong.

0-0-0.

................................................. .................................................. .........
Looks headed east of north. I doubt this is ever a GOM threater.....



CMC takes this as a cat 7 towards Cuba then East out to Sea ^^
1613. IKE
And there goes what's left of 93L...


1614. cg2916
Wow, down to 0%. Did the dry air get to it? However, there is a small convection burs as of late.
1615. IKE

Quoting Chicklit:
I hear ya Ike. Over here on the east coast of Central Florida we averaged less than 1/2 inch of rain from 93L yesterday and that was the best we've done in a long time.
Since April 6th I've had 1.41 inches of rain.
1616. IKE

Quoting Gearsts:
CMC takes this as a cat 7 towards Cuba then East out to Sea ^^
That model needs some adjusting.

Latest NOGAPS takes it to the NE Yucatan peninsula.

Flip a coin on this.
1617. cg2916
Quoting IKE:

That model needs some adjusting.

Latest NOGAPS takes it to the NE Yucatan peninsula.

Flip a coin on this.


How did it get so out of whack in the first place?
1618. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


How did it get so out of whack in the first place?
CMC?
1619. cg2916
Quoting IKE:

CMC?


Yup
1620. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


Yup
Don't know. It's always had issues on intensity. Does better on tracks.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yes, but some models are taking the convection to the east, associated with a tropical wave, north-eastwards and developing it a little.
i think they are suppose to be mid level spins taking off to the ne the all star is right low level disturbance is stationary offshore nica.
1622. cg2916
Quoting IKE:

Don't know. It's always had issues on intensity. Does better on tracks.


Ok.

BTW, what happened with 93L? Dry air?
1623. Bitmap7
Quoting Gearsts:
CMC takes this as a cat 7 towards Cuba then East out to Sea ^^


Actually the cmc only brings it to 988 mb and thats not unrealistic at all.
Dang, their it goes my last chance for rain till next week then only 20% chance better then none i guess.
1625. beell
Looks grim.

Overall pattern for the US continues with an Omega block over the central part of the country. Low pressure systems off each coast and ridging in the middle. We may see a few more of these 93L types systems as small disturbances downstream of the ridge ripple out into the Atlantic. Most of them would probably turn to the NE around the low progged to remain in the NW ATL. Always a chance one would take a track similar to 93L and move southwest around the persistent ridging.

Along the gulf coast, under and along the central/eastern ridge, subsidence. The aforementioned wiggles in the NW flow down the ridge will try to pull weak boundaries across the SE-some hope for precip there.

We usually expect to see a couple of rain-making systems form at the end of a cold front in the BOC or in the GOM in the early part of the tropical season. We may not see much of that for at least a couple of weeks-if at all.
Quoting islander101010:
i think they are suppose to be mid level spins taking off to the ne the all star is right low level disturbance is stationary offshore nica.


I know it is, that's why I said 'yes'.
forgot to post this


The surface low is east of the Nicaraguan coast.

93L's speed and combination of Dry Air has basically killed it...bummer. If it would have held together some and strengthened, maybe it could have helped the drought in Texas. I don't usually say it...but its time....RIP 93L.



Our Caribbean disturbance is back to being the main area of concern, and this may end up entering the GOMEX eventually. The longer is sits in the Caribbean, the more the chances go up of it making it NW towards the Yucatan channel and eventually the Gulf. The low pressure is around 82W 13N, and pressures in that vicinity are as low as 1005 millibars. I don't think we'll get a TD or TS out of this until later on this coming week.

Quoting cg2916:


Ok.

BTW, what happened with 93L? Dry air?


Speed and dry air.
1631. cg2916
Quoting blsealevel:
forgot to post this




New convection burst.
1632. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Speed and dry air.


Speed? How can speed kill it?
Is it just me or does 93L coc tightened?
Quoting cg2916:


Speed? How can speed kill it?


Speed shear, where it is traveling to fast and it sheared because of it.

That's what happened to Colin of last year when it first developed.
1635. pottery
Good Morning all.
I see that we still have 2 blobs which are getting everyone's attention.
Looking forward to them both poofing, so we can get back to discussing AGW around here.
:):))
1636. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Speed shear, where it is traveling to fast and it sheared because of it.


Makes sense, it looks like there might have been some shear.
1637. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

.SYNOPSIS...1008 MB LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W
ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD JAMAICA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA THROUGH MON.
A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FRI AND
INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES SUN IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THAT
WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MON.

Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
I see that we still have 2 blobs which are getting everyone's attention.
Looking forward to them both poofing, so we can get back to discussing AGW around here.
:):))

Pot, I've been waiting for a good AGW discussion for a while now.
1640. IKE
~the chart~

181 days....
17 hours....
34 minutes.....and it's over....
1641. cg2916
AL, 93, 2011060200, , BEST, 0, 285N, 845W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 60, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

If anyone knows how to decode this, please do.

I think it says at 00Z, it was at 28.5 N, 84.5 W, 25 knots, 1014mb, a low pressure system, and beyond there it's gibberish.
1642. pottery
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Pot, I've been waiting for a good AGW discussion for a while now.

Yeah, this weather-watching is getting boring already.
What has it been, 2 DAYS of this???
Give me a break!
1643. cg2916
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Pot, I've been waiting for a good AGW discussion for a while now.


AGW?
1645. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


AGW?
The blog killer..... Global Warming:(
1646. cg2916
Is it just me, or do I see some spin in the SW Caribbean in this image?



I don't exactly think it means LLC, but it's interesting.
1647. pottery
Quoting cg2916:


AGW?

I think it means "Always Getting Wasted", as in the Planet.
1648. cg2916
Quoting IKE:

The blog killer..... Global Warming:(


*Leaves blog*
1649. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

.SYNOPSIS...1008 MB LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W
ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD JAMAICA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN NE NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA THROUGH MON.
A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FRI AND
INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES SUN IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THAT
WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MON.

Another low? the blob?
1651. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


makes me want to hold my forehead with my fingertips just thinking about it

hahahahah, Brilliant!
Quoting cg2916:
Is it just me, or do I see some spin in the SW Caribbean in this image?



I don't exactly think it means LLC, but it's interesting.


Definitive spin.
Quoting cg2916:
AL, 93, 2011060200, , BEST, 0, 285N, 845W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 60, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

If anyone knows how to decode this, please do.

I think it says at 00Z, it was at 28.5 N, 84.5 W, 25 knots, 1014mb, a low pressure system, and beyond there it's gibberish.


Decoder
Quoting DestinJeff:
In case anyone is wondering why 93L failed to materialize into TD Scattered Showers, and why the group of clouds in the Caribbean continues only to tease the eager, please refer to this handy visual aid. I found this while doing some research for my dissertation in a little-known place on the Information Super Highway called google.com.

Behold:



In the words of my hero Professor Homer Simpson PHD. "Dophh it's the chart"
1655. IKE

Quoting cg2916:


*Leaves blog*
Another one bites the dust...headed down the road. Thumb in the air.
Quoting DestinJeff:


makes me want to hold my forehead with my fingertips just thinking about it

LOL
1657. pottery
Hot and hazy morning here at 11n 61w, while we wait on the next T-Wave.
The stuff south of Haiti looks like it is going to hang around there for a while, waiting on who-knows-what.
If it stays thereabouts, and gets fed by even more moisture, and the shear keeps low, it could become quite unpleasant.
1658. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1660. IKE

Quoting IKE:

The blog killer..... Global Warming:(

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. Almost makes me want to switch to a Simpsons avatar... ;-)
Ike,20% means invest may be around the corner or not is always the case?
1663. HCW
I hope that they get recon out there . This is very impressive :)

I'm actually quite surprised that they even mentioned 93L, usually when they give something 0% they don't label it in the next TWO.
1665. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Hopefully you guys have noticed in the TPW Mimic, the abnormal latitude gain of the ITCZ West of Africa:



Sure hope is not the signs of something worst and unusual down the road (close to August and on).
1666. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. QED... ;-)
Oh well....nothing is forever.
1667. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, that's the planet killer. The blog killer is an overabundance of wannabe comedians during season. QED... ;-)

'Morning, Nea.
Now this is an intresting setup, not likely to happen but it would be petty cool to see it happen "Thats just me though"



Link
1670. pottery
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

Hopefully you guys have noticed in the TPW Mimic, the abnormal latitude gain of the ITCZ West of Africa:



Sure hope is not the signs of something worst and unusual down the road (close to August and on).

Yeah, that's an interesting feature/bump there.
Maybe we will see the 'something worse' BEFORE August?
I hope not.
Quoting pottery:

'Morning, Nea.

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)
morning all

todays numbers
0.0.0.
:)
Good Morning/Evening

It is cool to see 93L's circlulation twin off to the south from the major storm cell to the north.
Could the north cell form its own circluation or will it get pulled into the southern circulation?
1674. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)

Doing fine here.
Enjoying the way that the Season has come out of the blocks with a sprint.
Unusual to see so little SAL over the Atl for this time of the year.
And there is plenty moisture where it matters, right now.
Favourable shear, nice warm water, what more could an armchair met desire?
1675. pottery
The fact that the first Invest to really grab everyone's attention came from somewhere up in the Great Lakes area, and lurched south along the east Coast across Florida, makes me feel that we will see some Strange Stuff and Whatnot this season.
I believe in Portents, you know.
1676. DocBen
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?
1677. pottery
Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

Carib Blob.
On Saturday.
just saw this one this is wild give me a hurricane to run from anyday as to have to deal with these.


Link
Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

"Gulf-Blob" has as much a chance of reaching TS strength as Paris Hilton does of being elected President. Maybe less. So given that "Carib-Blob" is in a better (and increasingly healthier) environment, if either one ever gets a name, it will.
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use



Quoting DocBen:
Which gets named first - Carib-Blob or Gulf-Blob? Or neither?

NAMED??? Neither
Good morning ike dry as a bone isnt it.I think people fail to realize that a lot of young kids are on the blog now.School is out. Hey, at least they are not out getting in trouble lol.Ike we must be getting old.back when we were teens mom and dad had chores for us to do plus we actually liked spending time outside.What ever happened to fishing, playing ball or the worst sin for the modern youth a summer job.Remember dragging the push mower around, or hey: collecting 32 ounce bottles for change? You know Im glad I grew up when I did .Thier were no computers, no cell phones, no xboxes.We in return had long lasting friendships and quality family time.I"am blessed my 17 year old stays busy all summer with football and soccer workouts.I'm truely blessed they like to fish and enjoy the outdoors.I also keep them busy helping thier mother and I keep up a 1 acre vegetable garden.Nothing like picking peas,butterbeans etc to get them out of the house lol.Also when I was young it was a requirement, not a choice to spend a week at vacation bible school.OH the good ole days.I really don't blame the kids, its the parents I blame.It is easy to give the kids a computer a cell phone, and electronic games, then to take the extra effort of quality family time and activities.Anyway Ike 0-0-0 I hope maybe the post's will decrease a bit when thier is nothing remotely threatening.Ike God Bless and take care you are in my prayers.
1684. MahFL
Quoting Gearsts:
CMC takes this as a cat 7 towards Cuba then East out to Sea ^^


LMAO.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use


Your second one is actually pretty terrifying.
1686. Bitmap7
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use





Lol a the naruto one. Super powered homer.
Also the rasegan in his hand is in the shape of a donut...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey nea i heard you where looking at a homer avatar here is a couple you can use





Second pic...Nightmares for sure this evening.
Quoting IKE:

Oh well....nothing is forever.


1689. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


the chance of Whatnot is real. STAY SAFE!

I'll keep trying....
Thanks, and you too!

Time to get Active around here. BBL.
1690. cg2916
Wow, 1689 comments!
1692. IKE
Hey SAINTHURRIFAN....have a nice day.

Hey...I'm still using a push mower! And yes...I did cut yards when I was a kid with one.

As far as cell phones...I see about 15-20% of people driving...with one attached to their ear. I don't get the fascination with them. I guess killing 2 birds with 1 stone....driving somewhere and talking to someone.

77.5 outside my window.....right now.
1693. effdbee
That loop of the ITCZ is interesting. Is there commonly a counterclockwise rotation of the ITCZ over or near Central America?
1694. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

What's up, pot? And the rest? Resident curmudgeon? Fans of Matt Groenig? Various model-sitters, armchair mets, obsequious types, Henny Youngman pretenders, and all the rest?

I suspect 94L will be birthed no later than tomorrow morning if things continue to ever-so-slowly wrap up down south. It's good to get back into the swing of things.

Mostly. ;-)


Well, that is a bit of a cheeky hello. Perhaps I am wrong, but I noted a bit of sarcasm there. Don't feel badly, Nea. Not all of us can be blessed with good looks, intelligence, wit and humor. Thankfully I was, but in your case, 1 out of 4 isn't bad. I think you are very intelligent. :-)
Quoting Grothar:


Well, that is a bit of a cheeky hello. Perhaps I am wrong, but I noted a bit of sarcasm there. Don't feel badly, Nea. Not all of us can be blessed with good looks, intelligence, wit and humor. Thankfully I was, but in your case, 1 out of 4 isn't bad. I think you are very intelligent. :-)

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg
Down to 20 kt, difference between inner/outer pressure only 1 mb.


AL 93 2011060212 BEST 0 250N 888W 20 1012 LO 34 NEQ 0 0 0 0 1013
Based on the smoke between Gainesville and Palatka, the forest service fire map is missing several.
What with the burn ban, temperatures around 100, and only a 20% chance of rain a few days this week, the fire weather advisory is a DUH! It should be a fire weather watch.
I'm surprised Putnam county isn't under the advisory.
The odd part is that counties with active wild fires are not in the advisory area. hummm.
1698. Grothar
The Navy site is really showing some high, cold top clouds. Didn't expect it to see it this strong this early.


Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

sis boom bah! Gom Glob !rah, rah, rah!
1700. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, I miss on all four counts. But that's okay; I've had a lifetime to get used to it. ;-)

I realize it's a 0% blob--o-nothing, but, still, 93L looks somewhat robust this morning, with a good LLC and some healthy convection flaring up on the east side. In the image below, it's centered at roughly 25N/89W. (The RGB loop tells a better story.)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg


Hey, 0 blobs can fool you sometimes. That Carib feature is beginning to look better all the time. The shear is still high, but it is really firing up strong convection. Too bad Levi isn't here. We could ask him about the weather conditions and the meaning of life in the same blog.
1701. HCW
2 ships around the center of 93L are reporting 7 and 9mph winds
I sure was counting on this thing hitting upper Tx coast. We need some rain bad
Good evening. Looks like we have some activity on the 1st day of hurricane season.

Time for my annual hurricane forecast prediction.

Here was my forecast from last year(you can check my blog if you don't believe me) actual season totals are in parentheses

Named Storms:19(19)
Hurricanes:11(12)
Major Hurricanes:6(5)


2011 Hurricane Season forecast

Named Storms:17
Hurricanes:9
Major Hurricanes:6

Key points of forecast
1. High SST's- above normal
2. Lower than average pressure expected over MDR during peak months
3. Weak La Nina/ Neutral Enso typically translate to active seasons
4.I strongly take into consideration NOAA and CSU predictions and add some independent thought
5.just an amateur take everything with grain of salt
6. I have a feeling most hurricanes this season will be majors
7. ITCZ farther north than climatalogical average
8. I expect at least one U.S. landfall this season: reasons including active tornado season and neutral ENSO increases landfall probablities

Everyone be prepared and stay safe!!!!!!!
Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.
Then another year north Florida was on fire and South Florida was plenty wet.. but not the entire state at the same time.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.



What ever happen to JFV & Storm.. Dont see them posting.
Chances of formation for the big blob are increased to 20%.
G'morning, all; Ikster, you around?
Quoting LPStormspotter:
I sure was counting on this thing hitting upper Tx coast. We need some rain bad


sure do

1709. IKE
Quoting ElCubanon:
G'morning, all; Ikster, you around?
Lurking.

................................................. .................................................
6-10 day precipitation....



6-10 day temperatures....




1710. Grothar
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.





And even that isn't too accurate. The only reason that Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade is not as deep red anymore, is that they had some rain in the interior, but the coastal areas have received practically nothing in months.
1711. HCW
Worst drought since 1997 here in South AL where we are 16 to 20 inches below normal

Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?
I think we'll see 94L before long though heavy convection is removed from COC, looks like things are coming together for development and I suspect this AOI has a good shot at becoming Arlene within the next 96hours, just my opinion of course!
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning my friends,

Happy Thursday.... well in all the years I've been watching I don't think I have seen this Florida Drought map look this red for so long.

Even in 2007/2008 drought at least north Florida got some rain while Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades dried up.

parts of South Florida been getting afew of those afternoon sprinkles which has helped some; at least we are red now and not dark red.






I always knew Florida was a red state, not literally though, lol. However, even that is changing with time.
Quoting Grothar:


And even that isn't too accurate. The only reason that Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade is not as deep red anymore, is that they had some rain in the interior, but the coastal areas have received practically nothing in months.


that's right, people close to the beach have not seen even sprinkles in the past 6 months..
the bottom map shows the colors by area not necessary county and you see all the fushia/hot pink in many places that does not reflect by county.
Regarding drought conditions

West Texas sees worst drought since Dust Bowl

Climatologist: “Along with the U.S., France, and China all are experiencing some pretty nasty drought that is going to have a major global impact on commodities, wheat in particular.”

Parts of West Texas, Oklahoma and adjoining states are suffering from a drought that rivals the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Some scientists say this is a kind of “global weirding” heralding climate change.

Were it not for the Biblical flooding of the Mississippi River and, well, Biblical whirlwinds slamming the Midwest, the “hellish” side of Hell and High Water would be the big news. Last month a “record breaking 1.79 million acres burned across the country” and most of that was in Texas, NOAA reported.

The Houston Chronicle reported this week, “Texas’ farmers and ranchers are coping with their eighth drought in the last 13 years, and this one, while still young, has a chance of slamming producers with their biggest losses ever, officials said.

Nearly four fifths of Texas is under extreme or exceptional drought. Reuters reports, the “dire drought” has “expanded across the key farming state of Kansas … the top U.S. wheat-growing state” over the last two weeks, “adding to struggles of wheat farmers already dealing with weather-ravaged fields.”

 
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/26/208170/t exas-worst-drought-dust-bowl-wheat/
Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?
Its trying, but not looking healthy at all.
And europe too


Europe's dry spring could lead to power blackouts, governments warn

River levels may cause nuclear reactors to go offline, while dry weather in northern and eastern Europe will raise food prices

One of the driest springs ever recorded in northern Europe could lead to power blackouts this summer, with nuclear reactors going offline because of low river levels. The exceptionally dry weather will also raise food prices and has already forced water restrictions on millions of people, say governments, farm groups and meteorological organisations across the continent.

Large parts of southern Britain, northern France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria and other northern and eastern European countries have had their driest three-month spells in more than 50 years, receiving just 25-60% of their long-term average rainfall since February. This has led to parched soils and difficult growing conditions for farmers, as well as to river levels that are dangerously low for wildlife.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/31 /europe-dry-spring-power-blackouts
#1714 Funny!!!!!!


Looks like many places around the world are suffering droughts also...

seems it is either flooding or drought..

is there anyplace that is getting "normal" amounts of rainfall for spring/early summer?
Quoting seflagamma:
#1714 Funny!!!!!!


Looks like many places around the world are suffering droughts also...

seems it is either flooding or drought..

is there anyplace that is getting "normal" amounts of rainfall for spring/early summer?


GAMS, ^_^.
i like it. even though its dry the evenings are mild and not too hot. heck of lot better than some yrs at the beginning of june where it is so steamy you can hardly breath. its not all bad.
1722. srada
Yesterday, our Governor (NC) met with President Obama on the Federal Govt reponse to hurricane disasters and we had Jim Cantore in Wilmington as well shooting a promo shot for the Weather Channel..not too shabby for NC..scary though that Jim was in Wilmington..
1723. Gearsts
1725. FLdewey
Soooo starved of thunderstorms here in EC Florida!

More dry days ahead.

Time to start farming the hay... or is it hey?
Quoting Vincent4989:
Is it me or is 93l looks like it's starting to regenerate?


I think it's biggest difficulty will be time, I doubt it has even 24 hours before it hits Mexico or Texas.
1728. Bayside
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
I keep up a 1 acre vegetable garden


Wow, that's a big garden! Wish I had the much room... I'd turn my whole yard into a garden if my wife would let me... the grass doesn't do anything except make work... I guess I'd leave a strip for the kids to play...
Quoting LPStormspotter:
What ever happen to JFV & Storm.. Dont see them posting.

Storm is somewhere else now he is no longer here. JFV will eventually show up with another handle
1730. Bayside
It seems that last year, here in VA, it was pretty dry too... we'd wish for rain and when it would come, it would come with nasty thunderstorms very high winds. I hope this dry spell now isn't a sign for another season of wicked thunderstorms ahead.
Quoting FLdewey:
Soooo starved of thunderstorms here in EC Florida!

More dry days ahead.

Time to start farming the hay... or is it hey?



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAYBE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
.

That has been the story all year...
1732. ackee
anyone think THE blob of convection south of haiti will devlop further ?
And us coasties (East Of Turnpike) get 10% chance next Sunday, that's it...
1734. srada
The Weather Channel are actually doing a parody when Cantore shows up in your hometown..a sense of doom felt by people..here is the story..

Link
New Blog
1736. Ryuujin
Good grief you Gulf Coaster/Floridians with that drought. I didn't know it was that bad. Man we had something along the lines of 14in of rain in like a weeks time here on the Ohio River. Wish I could of sent some of that your way.
1737. cg2916
NEW POST!!!!
1738. barbamz
Hello everybody from Germany. Drought in our country has been mitigated a bit due to some thunderstorms and rain two days ago. More to come this weekend.
Others news are not so good.

E. coli outbreak is a new strain2 June 2011 Last updated at 12:24 GMT
James Gallagher
Health reporter, BBC News
Leading microbiologist has warned the E. coli outbreak may worsen

The World Health Organization says the E. coli outbreak in Germany is a completely new strain of the bacteria.

The infection can cause the deadly complication - haemolytic-uraemic syndrome (HUS) - affecting the blood and kidneys.

More than 1,500 people have been infected and 17 have died: 16 in Germany and one in Sweden.

In the UK, three British nationals have been infected - all had visited Germany.
Aphaluck Bhatiasevi, a WHO spokesperson, is reported as saying: "This strain has never been seen in an outbreak situation before."
Scientists at the Beijing Genomics Institute, in China, are also reported as saying: "This E.coli is a new strain of bacteria that is highly infectious and toxic."
Preliminary genetic analysis of the outbreak suggests the bacteria is unique.
More:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-13626499

I've followed the news about the tornado outbreak in MA yesterday and I'm sorry for the fatalities and the damage. Some incredible video footage though.

Have a good day. I hope 93L will bring at least some drops of rain to Texas.
Is it me or is 93L splitting in half?

Click image for loop
Quoting DestinJeff:
Cue the satellite shots of Africa to get some interest going.

ok, you asked for it.....




Quoting MahFL:


XXXXX, wildlife evolved with droughts. Some species will die down a bit, others increase. Then the ones that went lower will recover. It's natural cycle.

Watch your language please
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