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CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. tkeith
Trauma are you near Blountstown? A guy that works for me is from there.
2502. IKE
108 hr. 6Z GFS forecast....Colin is completely history by then. Looks like 93L may come from the blob in the eastern ATL, but it looks like a fish system....

Is Gran
Quoting tkeith:
Trauma are you near Blountstown? A guy that works for me is from there.


Is Grand Ridge Close enough?
2504. tkeith
Quoting traumaboyy:
Is Gran

Is Grand Ridge Close enough?
Is that on the same side of the river as Blountstown?
2505. MahFL
So when will the big one hit FL again ? I thought the pattern favoured FL this year ?
2506. tkeith
I see you're comin to the Big Easy this weekend. Local mets say it's gonna cool down all the way to the "mid 90's" :)
Quoting tkeith:
Is that on the same side of the river as Blountstown?


Yes sir, about 15 miles north of Blountstown
2508. aquak9
G'morning Seenya Cheef.

Except for the heat and lack of rain (my area), I think we're enjoying the tropics so far.

I know, that'll change...
2509. tkeith
Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes sir, about 15 miles north of Blountstown
My buddy is 25 years old, you may know him.
Quoting tkeith:
I see you're comin to the Big Easy this weekend. Local mets say it's gonna cool down all the way to the "mid 90's" :)


Will Have to remember to bring my Jacket!!
Morning TU all. Here in Puerto Rico EX-Collin left us suffocating in the heat. Southerly winds not good at all here.
2512. aquak9
Quoting MahFL:
So when will the big one hit FL again ? I thought the pattern favoured FL this year ?


sigh...no one can answer that.
2513. tkeith
Quoting traumaboyy:


Will Have to remember to bring my Jacket!!
lol
2514. tkeith
Have a good mornin all...I hear a bridge callin my name. Sounds like it's a little "hot" too.
Quoting tkeith:
Have a good mornin all...I hear a bridge callin my name. Sounds like it's a little "hot" too.

Have a good one!
Good morning all from South Texas...
Looks like CV season might be kicking off!
Quoting StormW:


Good morning Water Puppy!

So far, so good...but, like you said...


Morning Storm.

Any chance of the NAO going negative soon?

Bored of this below average temperatures and rain, already.
2520. Gearsts
Link WOW :O
2521. 10Speed
Quoting MahFL:
So when will the big one hit FL again ? I thought the pattern favoured FL this year ?


The "pattern" is an ever changing phantom type of thing. Today it's this but tomorrow it might be that. Whether it's educated or not, any long range prediction should be considered a guess.

Asking when the next big one will strike Florida is about the same as asking when you'll have your next traffic accident.
Quoting Gearsts:
Link WOW :O
Thats quite a system behind ex-Collin!!
2523. surfmom
heading out the door in minutes - gotta beat the heat - thought for sure the soles of my running shoes were going to melt Saturday running a bit too late in the morning.
Humidity is a glorious 96 percent -- temp 75 degrees, add 20 degrees to the 75 for how it feels when you are running....and at this hour -- it won't feel like I'm running 'cross the Sahara. In two hours - it will be like running cross Death Valley.

Wowza - great Roll Call in here this AM!!!!
(((Pottery)))
Morning Water pup... StromW.... Keith..... Ike...

Feel like I got hit my a 2x4 ..... need coffee (coke)
Good morning. I don't have school today :D
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning Water pup... StromW.... Keith..... Ike...

Feel like I got hit my a 2x4 ..... need coffee (coke)

Come on Dfly...that 2x4 would not phase you. i think more like a 4x4 for you. hehe nice this am in wcfl 75
2527. surfmom
Quoting Yahuekano:
Morning TU all. Here in Puerto Rico EX-Collin left us suffocating in the heat. Southerly winds not good at all here.


Any waves? as in surfing? just curious, learning your waters and how the wind affects things
2528. Gearsts
Link HMmm :/
2529. surfmom
More Coffee here too, I should be hitting the road - all this humidity makes my joint's rusty... need a whole lotta coffee to get crankin'

LOVE the way this guy writes:
Local surf report: AuraSurf/M.Weaver
As we found out last time just because the NHC puts a name on a bunch of clouds does not mean that a real storm is going to produce surf. This was never about Colin. Just that Colin was swept up in the same wave of energy crossing the Atlantic. So don't focus on whether he regenerates or not. The swell is set to arrive Friday am, still smallish but ridable and clean. The more solid swell will hit Saturday afternoon. The wind is supposed to be crankin offshore so that's cool. Check comoestaeso.com Thursday pm to see this swell arrive on the north coast of PR. Back here on the gulf it's flat as a lake and will stay that way.
Once again the dividing line between blue sky and gray is literally right over my house. Back yard has blue sky, but the front (east) is full of very grey, filtered light - no sunrise to speak of this morning.
Pre-Danielle looking good and this storm will not be a fisah storm..but colin will be a fish storm

Good morning Ike.Looks about the same for the hurricane season of 2010 so far.13 invests, 1 hurricane 2 short lived weak tropical storms.Well 23% so far become named. we still need 103 invests this season at this percentage to see 20 named systems lol.Now for all the pro forecasters who thought this would be a bad year for the conus i feel something is missing thier not picking up on.1)upper tutt 2)plenty of convection in the carrib that does not develop and burys themselves in c/a.3)now that the cv season seems to get a little more active they look to be fish storms.4)gulf of mexico is boiling temp wise but the strong ridge of high pressure keeps suppressing any organization.In summary maybe just because we see certain variables that point to active or nonactive we have become so arrogant in our forecast ability that God sometimes throws us a curve to show us how really minute we are in comparison to him.Have a blessed day.
The Tropical Atlantic continues the downturn which will probably last until the week of August 15th. In the meantime, though, the remnants of Colin seemed to organize some yesterday only to be somewhat squashed again today.

Colorado State's (Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach) predictions were updated yesterday, and they are unchanged with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 majors. So far there have been 3 named storms and 1 hurricane, which leaves 15 more named storms, 9 more hurricanes, and 5 majors still to come according to them. There is still plenty to suggest the peak of the season will be active, and that is yet to come.

Regeneration of Colin may not occur, but if it were to it would be tonight at the earliest, with it being more likely toward the weekend. It's still currently at a 40% chance to regenerate. Odds still greatly favor it going out to sea regardless of development.

The wave in the Caribbean, on the other hand, fell apart overnight and chances for development will likely be dropping, and may never develop.

Another area in the Central Atlantic could be worth watching over the weekend or next week, but the overall set up for storms doesn't improve until at or just after mid August.

better run before I am called a troll or yelled at.
Hope everyone in W/U World has a great day....time to get off work!!
2536. IKE
GOM deserves a break in 2010 in the tropics. It's great news that BP is finishing that oil-volcano off for good.

Come on back vacationers...to Destin,FL. area!!!

Quoting IKE:
GOM deserves a break in 2010 in the tropics. It's great news that BP is finishing that oil-volcano off for good.

Come on back vacationers...to Destin,FL. area!!!



Heck after Destin come on down to Orlando too!!!
Quoting sebastianflorida:
better run before I am called a troll or yelled at.


No, you're absolutely correct. You're no troll; just stating facts.
2539. IKE
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Heck after Destin come on down to Orlando too!!!


Pretty area down there.
sebastian thats a good point. But listenening not just to people on this blog which we know requires a lot of filtering out lol we have heard wait to july, wait to late july wait to august.Trust me i hope the season continues ths way.My theory is thier is something missing that no mortal is capable of putting a finger on.Something ive never seen posted on this blog that ive always been curious about is this! The 70's and 80's thru the early 90's were relatively quiet for hurricane seasons.Ever since 95 active seasons were projected on lanina or neutral forecast.Weak season were explained due to elnino factoring in.Now my question is in approximately 20 or so years of minimal activity did we have el nino every year lol.That tells me something else was going on and maybe its coming back into play and we are not smart enough yet to figure it out.
DJ Ike,
The Gulf will hopefully enjoy a season in the sun with no TCs Link

Quoting severstorm:

Come on Dfly...that 2x4 would not phase you. i think more like a 4x4 for you. hehe nice this am in wcfl 75


I wish.... My youngest daughter likes to play punch buggy but still doesnt understand all the rules that you must punch the person in the arm/ shoulder.. (she is 6) we where walking Im 6'6" and she is about 3 foot tall and I was facing here... (that would put her at a very precarious height compared to me) and WHAMMMmmmm I was doubled up in the Target parking lot.. Poor thing didnt understand but Im still feeling the "sensitivity" of the whole ordeal...
Good Morning All. The remnants of Colin notwithstanding, starting to approach that time of year when a pre-existing disturbance, some persistant convection and low sheer values will pretty much tell the story......Gonna have to keep a close eye on the qualifying waves, blobs and models from here on out for the next two months.
Quoting IKE:


Pretty area down there.


You guys have awesome beaches and community.. I love it up there!
Quoting sebastianflorida:
better run before I am called a troll or yelled at.


Just give credit when credit is due.
2546. IKE
I noticed that about those seasons. 70's...into 80's....As a kid growing up and into the early 80's...the one's I remember...Eloise...Camille...Fredrick....but, those threats weren't that often...they were spaced apart by a few years.

The last significant one here(hurricane conditions), was Opal...in 1995.


Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You guys have awesome beaches and community.. I love it up there!


It is a nice area.
2547. Hhunter
Quoting StormW:
Thanks Korie and Trauma.

Thanks again Trauma for all of your help!


storm you still in a coastal city?
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
647 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATES WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TS COLIN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH. THE TUTT CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND IT IS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. BUT LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY IT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS ANOTHER TUTT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

AT LOW LEVELS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO/USVI...AS THE REMNANT LOW TO THE NORTH AND A INDUCES AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL HELP SUSTAIN THIS FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH EASTERLIES TO SLOWLY ESTABLISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE ENSUING FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH PWS OF 40-50MM.
THIS SLOWLY ADVECTS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS TODAY...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON FIRST LIGHT FRIDAY. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER ON THE DAY TO SUNDAY.

THE GFS INITIALLY KEEPS MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. BUT DURING THE SHORT RANGE MAXIMA ACROSS THE ISLANDS PEAK AT LESS THAN 20MM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAGER
AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 05MM/DAY IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE NAM...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXPLOSIVE AS ON THE PREVIOUS CYCLES...REMAINS THE WETTEST...SHOWING MAXIMA OF 30-40MM TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM TAKES A TWO PUNCH APPROACH...WITH THE REMNANT LOW TO THE
NORTH INDUCING AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE ALSO SUSTAINING AN ITCZ CONNECTION AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNTS SEEM MORE REALISTIC THAN
WHAT THE NAM PREVIOUSLY SHOWED...IT REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE...AND IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE ITCZ CONNECTION LASTS. SO WORTHWHILE ONSIDERING...BUT DO NOT BET THE
HOUSE ON IT.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Hopefully their forecast remains true.

Excerpt:

THE LOW DEPICTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MANUAL PROGS IS INTENDED TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD BREAKING OFF AND DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND NOT NECESSARILY A TROPICAL FEATURE.



Quoting IKE:
I noticed that about those seasons. 70's...into 80's....As a kid growing up and into the early 80's...the one's I remember...Eloise...Camille...Fredrick....but, those threats weren't that often...they were spaced apart by a few years.

The last significant one here(hurricane conditions), was Opal...in 1995.




It is a nice area.


Uh... Ivan?
2551. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
DJ Ike,
The Gulf will hopefully enjoy a season in the sun with no TCs Link



Former #1 for several weeks.

Here's to all the Blue Collar workers braving the heat/humidity. A blues tune~
2552. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Uh... Ivan?


I live 120 miles east of Ivan's landfall. TS conditions here. I'm the 4th county over in the Florida panhandle....

2553. Hhunter
i think my vacation starting this sunday for a week at south padre island with the family could get interesting. tex/mex border
2554. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting IKE:


I live 120 miles east of Ivan's landfall. TS conditions here. I'm the 4th county over in the Florida panhandle....

That loop that it did around back over florida.. (before i was really into this site and really tring to grasp hurricanes) I heard the naked low blow over the house that night. We had the windows open and some small storms .... It was creepy!!
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That loop that it did around back over florida.. (before i was really into this site and really tring to grasp hurricanes) I heard the naked low blow over the house that night. We had the windows open and some small storms .... It was creepy!!


Ivan remains my favorite storm (fascination wise, before anyone reads too deeply into that) because of its eventual regeneration in the Gulf.
Quoting IKE:
I noticed that about those seasons. 70's...into 80's....As a kid growing up and into the early 80's...the one's I remember...Eloise...Camille...Fredrick....but, those threats weren't that often...they were spaced apart by a few years.

The last significant one here(hurricane conditions), was Opal...in 1995.




It is a nice area.


Earl?

2559. IKE
KoritheMan...this one meant business and my house took a hit from it....

The TWO does not mention movement as to the remnants but it "looks" to me like they are moving in the general direction of Bermuda at the moment.
Quoting IKE:
KoritheMan...this one meant business and my house to a hit from it....



I can imagine. Opal was horrific. That one, along with 2000's Gordon, should be decent reminders that just because tropical cyclones develop over the Yucatan Peninsula, does not mean that they will be destroyed and unable to intensify when they hit water.

The Yucatan isn't a very mountainous or rugged area.
Ex-Colin: 50%
SW Caribbean: 10%
Seems reasonable.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The TWO does not mention movement as to the remnats but it "looks" to me like they are moving in the direction of Bermuda at the moment.


It said northwest.
2564. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Earl?



I was on the west/NW side of it. The winds weren't that strong here. Maybe 35-45/50 mph.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It said northwest.


My bad; need to put my reading glasses back on.... :)
re 2541 -

Ah - great song, though I prefer McKuen's version of that great Jacques Brel piece
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I wish.... My youngest daughter likes to play punch buggy but still doesnt understand all the rules that you must punch the person in the arm/ shoulder.. (she is 6) we where walking Im 6'6" and she is about 3 foot tall and I was facing here... (that would put her at a very precarious height compared to me) and WHAMMMmmmm I was doubled up in the Target parking lot.. Poor thing didnt understand but Im still feeling the "sensitivity" of the whole ordeal...

Well then i should of said a 6 yr old daughter instead of a 4x4. lol You getting any rain in your area over in orlando?
Interesting.. What do you make of this CMC run?

Link
2569. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can imagine. Opal was horrific. That one, along with 2000's Gordon, should be decent reminders that just because tropical cyclones develop over the Yucatan Peninsula, does not mean that they will be destroyed and unable to intensify when hit water.

The Yucatan isn't a very mountainous or rugged area.


That hit the October before I bought this house(spring of 1996). The house had been empty for a few months. I'm not making this up...there was a pile of limbs/branches...in the front yard about 10 feet wide and several feet tall from Opal's furry. This place was a total mess.

I've had branches down from Ivan and Dennis, but it wasn't that bad and it was tropical storm conditions. Opal was hurricane conditions.
2570. Hhunter
accuweather professional free trial today. go to accuweather.com
Quoting RotorYacht:
Interesting.. What do you make of this CMC run?

Link


I looked at CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and all show the bermuda high breaking down next week setting up for a 'fishy' track for any mid-august atlantic storms.
Quoting RotorYacht:
Interesting.. What do you make of this CMC run?

Link


Not the expert on interpretation but does it develop that wave currently around 35-40 west? It certainly looks a little bit foreboding this morning but not yet mentioned by NHC in their TWO and no vorticity at the moment per the latest CIMSS charts..
2573. IKE
I've give an honorable mention to this bad girl.....well respected by IKE/the downcaster.....

2569.

Ike - we moved in here about 6 months post Isabel. Front yard was nice and tidy. Back yard was full of leaves - and UNDER the leaves were all the branches and debris. First time I walked down the hill I stepped into a mess of branches to mid thigh! Took us nearly a month of clean up and 3 city dumpsters to get it all taken away!
2575. FLDART1
Good Morning everyone...
Quoting severstorm:

Well then i should of said a 6 yr old daughter instead of a 4x4. lol You getting any rain in your area over in orlando?


I have 3 daughters and dont think that will be the first pain I get from them... Mostly the broken Hearts I get for them..

Not enough rain... They keep on slipping over to the west.(Tampa) Im going to tampa next week so hopefully this weather pattern will hold up and I get some good lightning shots on the coast!!!

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
sebastian thats a good point. But listenening not just to people on this blog which we know requires a lot of filtering out lol we have heard wait to july, wait to late july wait to august.Trust me i hope the season continues ths way.My theory is thier is something missing that no mortal is capable of putting a finger on.Something ive never seen posted on this blog that ive always been curious about is this! The 70's and 80's thru the early 90's were relatively quiet for hurricane seasons.Ever since 95 active seasons were projected on lanina or neutral forecast.Weak season were explained due to elnino factoring in.Now my question is in approximately 20 or so years of minimal activity did we have el nino every year lol.That tells me something else was going on and maybe its coming back into play and we are not smart enough yet to figure it out.
Agree, I think. Overall I just think that most land areas don't gett affected by storms often, it is kind of random, and if your towns in the way you could be doomed, but not too often. As far as storms, most blobs never turn into much, but sometimes when everything in the environment is correct, then all bets are off, and God forbid your town is in the way of a Cat 3 or higher. Sometimes the prior will happen, but more often than not, all variables are not there to make that scenario come to fuition, thank goodness, I say anyway.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ivan remains my favorite storm (fascination wise, before anyone reads too deeply into that) because of its eventual regeneration in the Gulf.
I agree... What an incredible (minus the destruction) event and anomaly it truly was from a scientific perspective!
2579. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
2569.

Ike - we moved in here about 6 months post Isabel. Front yard was nice and tidy. Back yard was full of leaves - and UNDER the leaves were all the branches and debris. First time I walked down the hill I stepped into a mess of branches to mid thigh! Took us nearly a month of clean up and 3 city dumpsters to get it all taken away!


We burned ours off. It took awhile. Having a lot of trees in the yard can be nice, until....hurricane conditions.
With the AB high being so week it appears anything coming off Africa will eventually curve out to sea. 2010 could be a fishy season.
2581. IKE
Ivan was no slouch...at all...and meant business.
Good Morning

If ex-Colin is worthy of monitoring, as Dr. Masters says it is, and its development is being modeled, then why aren't the models available on the severe weather T&H page?
2584. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
GOM deserves a break in 2010 in the tropics. It's great news that BP is finishing that oil-volcano off for good.

Come on back vacationers...to Destin,FL. area!!!

will be there the week before Labor Day...cant wait.
Let's not forget Erin either...
2587. FLDART1
I see Opal is being revisited this AM. While she still did a good deal of damage, we really dodged a bullet withe her. The systems rapid intensification caught most of us off-guard. Had she not weakened considerably just before landfall the Death Toll would have been bad. Many of those trying to EVAC were still on the roadways...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Just give credit when credit is due.
Your correct, I was just agreeing with this synopsis from Central Florida Hurricane Site--opps
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning

If ex-Colin is worthy of monitoring, as Dr. Masters says it is, and its development is being modeled, then why aren't the models available on the severe weather T&H page?


I am no MET but I think it has to do with the Low pressure system of a tropical storm.. I believe however, they do forecast and model other storms. Frankly, all of the models I look at do predict all the weather that it expects to happen. I mean I see other types of systems being modeled while Im watching the Tropical weather on the model..
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I have 3 daughters and dont think that will be the first pain I get from them... Mostly the broken Hearts I get for them..

Not enough rain... They keep on slipping over to the west.(Tampa) Im going to tampa next week so hopefully this weather pattern will hold up and I get some good lightning shots on the coast!!!


I live in zephyrhills and yes we have had a few great storms over here on the west side. Good luck with getting your pics.
2592. tkeith
2590. DestinJeff 7:10 AM CDT on August 05, 2010

I'll be a frequent visitor at Harry T's...

Love that Jetty Juice :)
Colin has never looked better
2594. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
will be there the week before Labor Day...cant wait.


Hope you have a great time.
Quoting severstorm:

I live in zephyrhills and yes we have had a few great storms over here on the west side. Good luck with getting your pics.


Why thank you very much! I am excited! I am still void of pictures over the ocean where you can see the whole bolt.
Looks good to me!
Quoting IKE:


We burned ours off. It took awhile. Having a lot of trees in the yard can be nice, until....hurricane conditions.


Ha - can't burn here in VaBeach - city has to make it's money one way or the other,LOL. Actually - 7x13x6 dumpster was only 25 bucks back then - gone up to 35 now.
2599. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Hope you have a great time.
I love the Emerald Coast...tryin to make enough money to retire there.
If the entire run of the 06z GFS would verify we would be by the "G" storm in 16 days. That obviously means nothing since it is very highly unlikely that it will, but as you can tell we are getting to that time of the season that storms start forming left and right.

06z GFS still calls for Danielle to form within the next 3 days.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Why thank you very much! I am excited! I am still void of pictures over the ocean where you can see the whole bolt.

Dfly they say the best place for lighning pictures is Tarpon Springs just thought you might want to know. I have seen some great shots of lightning and they all came from that area.
2603. IKE
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Let's not forget Erin either...


Here she is....




Looking at the models for 92L, they seem pretty direct. I don't see any of the models showing it hitting the Yucatan After Honduras. Is there one model showing it passing the Ycatan and hitting Honduras on Friday and another saying it is going much slower and taking till Saturday to cover half the distance to the Yucatan? The days just seem backward to my geographic mind.
2605. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I love the Emerald Coast...tryin to make enough money to retire there.


Nice area to do that in. City I live in is growing. We're getting our 8th and 9th traffic lights!
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I have 3 daughters and dont think that will be the first pain I get from them... Mostly the broken Hearts I get for them..

Not enough rain... They keep on slipping over to the west.(Tampa) Im going to tampa next week so hopefully this weather pattern will hold up and I get some good lightning shots on the coast!!!



ok, I can so picture EDF on the daughter's first date. Boy knocks on door, enters the house, sees EDF cleaning his shotgun...."Have a nice time kids".......LOL
2607. FLDART1
Am curious as to where exactly all of the oil has supposedly gone... hmmmmm.....Dont get me wrong, I hope it really is gone, but I just cant wrap my mind around what they are trying to tell us...
15 trees hit the house and fence. A very long day...
Quoting IKE:


Nice area to do that in. City I live in is growing. We're getting our 8th and 9th traffic lights!
Defuniak now has 9 traffic lights? I need to get up there more often...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the entire run of the 06z GFS would verify we would be by the "G" storm in 16 days. That obviously means nothing since it is very highly unlikely that it will, but as you can tell we are getting to that time of the season that storms start forming left and right.

06z GFS still calls for Danielle to form within the next 3 days.

Wow. But it's highly unlikely 16 days out. But it sounds interesting.
Good Morning Guys! Big Things Poppin I see!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVMYFfBo3g8

2612. hcubed
Quoting Ossqss:


Do you know how foolish that comment is? This is about two different (official) sources for the same info. Not your perception of such. Quite telling for sure. Does your opinion change it? No, realize that and grow up. Gheeze,

I am outta here! Consider the source is all I will say, the data and the opinion are two different things.


Is he still on that?

He STILL hasn't provided his source of the "busting" of Watts.

His arguement of Watts and "no peer-reviewed articles" is questionable, too.

And as far as the "Goddard" issue, is he saying that if a person posts anonomously, we can't believe them?

That would knock out a few warmist web sites as well.
Good Morning!
2614. divdog
Quoting IKE:
I've give an honorable mention to this bad girl.....well respected by IKE/the downcaster.....

that storm kicked our butts in FWB. That storm had some serious punch. I had to dig 3 feet of crap out of our pool
2615. NASA101
Quoting hcubed:


Is he still on that?

He STILL hasn't provided his source of the "busting" of Watts.

His arguement of Watts and "no peer-reviewed articles" is questionable, too.

And as far as the "Goddard" issue, is he saying that if a person posts anonomously, we can't believe them?

That would knock out a few warmist web sites as well.


Reported for discussion of non-tropical nature!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the entire run of the 06z GFS would verify we would be by the "G" storm in 16 days. That obviously means nothing since it is very highly unlikely that it will, but as you can tell we are getting to that time of the season that storms start forming left and right.

06z GFS still calls for Danielle to form within the next 3 days.


I am personally ready to track a REAL storm lol. Most seem to have been challenged this year with the exception of Alex at the end.
Gooooood Morning folks! :)
2618. IKE
Quoting RipplinH2O:
15 trees hit the house and fence. A very long day... Defuniak now has 9 traffic lights? I need to get up there more often...


It may take a few weeks to get both set up.

Quoting divdog:
that storm kicked our butts in FWB. That storm had some serious punch. I had to dig 3 feet of crap out of our pool


And she intensified before landfall. Formidable storm.
2619. tkeith
Quoting weather457:
Good Morning to All!!!
?
Quoting tkeith:
I love the Emerald Coast...tryin to make enough money to retire there.
LOVE living here !
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can imagine. Opal was horrific. That one, along with 2000's Gordon, should be decent reminders that just because tropical cyclones develop over the Yucatan Peninsula, does not mean that they will be destroyed and unable to intensify when they hit water.

The Yucatan isn't a very mountainous or rugged area.


i think camille was from there wasnt it?
2623. MahFL
Colins center is exposed, moving WNW.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You guys have awesome beaches and community.. I love it up there!


Our beaches here in Ft. Myers/Sanibel/Captiva are pristine and waiting for folks to come enjoy them...
Quoting StormW:
Just a little tidbit to think on...I don't have time to go through all the data (archived), but to touch on the NAO versus storm tracks. When the NAO goes negative (weaker A/B ridge / weaker Icelandic low), this DOES NOT imply storms are just going to automatically re-curve out to sea. The "weaker" high so to speak, with the combination of the Icelandic low, also weakens the "mean" trof that helps to recurve storms, as well as not letting the axis as far south. I mean, think about it, if you weaken the A/B high and Icelandic low, how are you going to strengthen the "mean" trof? Remember, anytime you have a strong ride, you're going to pump a stronger trof east of it. Weaker high...weaker trof to the east.

Here's is a comparison per se, as I said, I don't have time to research every year, but the maps show that, all tracks closer to the U.S. were in a NEGATIVE NAO phase, or transitioning from a moderate/strong negative toward postive, or at a weak positive (almost neutral).

1990 was a predominately positive NAO during the heart of the season, and 2005, 2008 were of what I had just mentioned.







Thanks so much Storm!
Models shifted way east overnight...except, oddly enough, the NHC model. Hmmmm....
Oh, almost forgot! Good morning all!
Good morning WU bloggers.
2630. soloco
Quoting tkeith:
?


Maybe he had a birthday, lol.??
Thanks for the link Earthly!
And good luck with the pics.
Quoting IKE:
Ivan was no slouch...at all...and meant business.


I agree. This photo was taken near Naples, Florida, as Ivan's remnants were making their way westward across the tip of Florida. (Note: no filters were used and no post-processing was done on this; the colors are from the dust and humidity Ivan was dragging along with him. 'Twas incredible.)

Ivan sunset
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks for the link Earthly!
And good luck with the pics.


Thanks Biff
Quoting severstorm:

Dfly they say the best place for lighning pictures is Tarpon Springs just thought you might want to know. I have seen some great shots of lightning and they all came from that area.


I will have to look that place up as a AOI.. Thanks
Danielle in the making, seems like.

Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


ok, I can so picture EDF on the daughter's first date. Boy knocks on door, enters the house, sees EDF cleaning his shotgun...."Have a nice time kids".......LOL


oh yea... One more thing... Keep your hands to your self and being on time would be a very good thing for you .... LOL
2637. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:


I agree. This photo was taken near Naples, Florida, as Ivan's remnants were making their way westward across the tip of Florida. (Note: no filters were used and no post-processing was done on this; the colors are from the dust and humidity Ivan was dragging along with him. 'Twas incredible.)

Ivan sunset


Nice picture. Even with the waves it's rather peaceful looking.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Danielle in the making, seems like.



Very impressive convection in the C ATL. I'm surprised that the NHC doesn't mention this area in there discussion.
2639. IKE
I see we're going into a negative NAO, according to this map, but I don't see any threats to the USA, or closer to the USA, for at least the next 10 days. And I'm not including tropical waves...1012mb lows. I'm talking hurricane threats. Maybe it changes on future model runs...

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Danielle in the making, seems like.


Seems like it.
I would watch this area in the C ATL as it looks like this area will pose a threat to the Antilles early next week.
I'm not sure either, strong model support.
2643. smuldy
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Our beaches here in Ft. Myers/Sanibel/Captiva are pristine and waiting for folks to come enjoy them...
But you have no waves on that side...like ever, except for when people cant safely go in the water
Quoting Jeff9641:
Good Morning Guys! Big Things Poppin I see!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVMYFfBo3g8

LOL, mah dog posted da T.I. up, lmao!
Morning all.

Interesting set up on Monday for Colin according to OPC.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Very impressive convection in the C ATL. I'm surprised that the NHC doesn't mention this area in there discussion.


Looks to be attached to the ITCZ still. No real 850 vort to speak of ATM either.

When recon goes to investigate ex-Colin later today I think we'll have a TS again. I also think that we'll see 93L out of the large and vigorous tropical wave in the CATL in the next 48 hours.
I think COLIN has recovered a Low Level Circulation Center, despite of the shear...

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Looks to be attached to the ITCZ still. No real 850 vort to speak of ATM either.

Really? I see plenty of 850mb vorticity up near 12N 31W.

Quoting TankHead93:
LOL, mah dog posted da T.I. up, lmao!


Good Morning Buddy!LOL
2651. help4u
Overall pattern is for alot of fish storms next couple of weeks.Models take everything out to sea.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I would watch this area in the C ATL as it looks like this area will pose a threat to the Antilles early next week.
I doubt it, this one will likely recurve as an intense cyclone as depicted by the 06z GFS.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Danielle in the making, seems like.



Where does this image come from?
Not to much going on out there right now... but the CATL wave looks like its getting ready to surf :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
2656. Squid28
morning all...

Is wunderground broken or has all of the caffeine from my java not set in yet? I do not see ex-colin on the tropical/hurricane page
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I doubt it, this one will likely recurve as an intense cyclone as depicted by the 06z GFS.


I'm not hanging my hat on that but it's possible. It looks to me that this C ATL wave may not recurve.
Despite the large amount of SAL/Dry air to the north the sheer size of PGI24L will be helping it fight it off, basically the opposite of what we saw with Colin.


2660. breald
Morning. NOAA will come out with their new predictions today at 11am. Do you think they will lower their numbers?
GFS more than recurves the CATL wave, it pretty much sends it NW and then to the N shortly after development. Keeps it well away from the Caribbean islands.
Ex-Colin still holding out to the 40mph winds, however the pressure has decreased by 1mb to 1008mb. Interestingly enough it remains as a "wave".

AL, 04, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 230N, 650W, 35, 1008, WV,
If Colin gets its act together is there a chance it will head more northwest or is it for sure going to go to the north and totally miss the east coast? Thoughts...
2664. Jax82
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When recon goes to investigate ex-Colin later today I think we'll have a TS again. I also think that we'll see 93L out of the large and vigorous tropical wave in the CATL in the next 48 hours.


Miami, even since the NHC hasnt even mentioned it in their discussion or drawn a yellow circle around it?
Quoting breald:
Morning. NOAA will come out with their new predictions today at 11am. Do you think they will lower their numbers?


They will narrow their numbers from 14 to 23 to 15 to 18 in line with CSU.
2666. IKE
Quoting breald:
Morning. NOAA will come out with their new predictions today at 11am. Do you think they will lower their numbers?


I'm surprised the others didn't...just slightly.

To answer your question...either no or just slightly.
Hey, is anybody else seeing the TUTT as repositioned along a line approximately 30N/65W 26N/74W 22N/90W? If what I'm seeing on the WV loop is correct, looks like the TUTT may be shifting, which would give the next few storms to approach the Antilles a better chance of formation....
Quoting Jax82:


Miami, even since the NHC hasnt even mentioned it in their discussion or drawn a yellow circle around it?
Well yeah, we probably will need some recognition in the TWO, but as soon as there is we are likely to see 93L.
I am truly amazed how the Bermuda High weakens so much this time of year for such a long period of time before making a comeback. We better hope nothing develops into the Caribbean during that time.
Quoting extreme236:
GFS more than recurves the CATL wave, it pretty much sends it NW and then to the N shortly after development. Keeps it well away from the Caribbean islands.
Let's hope that verifies...
Quoting obxnagshead:
If Colin gets its act together is there a chance it will head more northwest or is it for sure going to go to the north and totally miss the east coast? Thoughts...
I'm not quite seeing that Bermuda strike just yet, but if things play out more or less as forecast it seems unlikely OBX will see any of Colin...
Quoting IKE:


I'm surprised the others didn't...just slightly.

To answer your question...either no or just slightly.


Basically they said they expect an explosion in storms to occur over the next 2 weeks and one member from the NHC was on TWC last night and he said he really feels the US coast especially the SE US is for a big one or two down the road. Very ominious tone while listening to there discussions last night.
Looks like Colin might become a Hurricane but, fishin he goes.
Quoting obxnagshead:
If Colin gets its act together is there a chance it will head more northwest or is it for sure going to go to the north and totally miss the east coast? Thoughts...


Fish
Basically any thought of a downcasted season is about 90 to 95 percent out of the question based on the experts at CSU and NHC.
2676. barbamz
"Fish" - Rov vid saved from the GOM Sea bottom some minutes ago http://de.tinypic.com/r/c442b/4
2677. help4u
Active season but with the strong smell of fish!
2678. IKE
Exposed center at 23.5N and 65.2W?...speed it up all the way....
2679. Drakoen
Morning visible images sugggest that Ex-Colin that, while Ex-Colin is asymmetric, the system is developing a well-defined circulation near 23.4N 65.1W.
I really don't like this negative NAO that StormW was talking about either especially living on the West side of Florida. Anything that comes up out of the Caribbean will have a chance to recurve into Florida's West Coast. The setup is very simialar to what you would find in late October or November.



According to the steering maps, Colin should recurve right in the middle of the East Coast and Bermuda. The BAMMS is showing this while the other models take it too far east.
COC exposed.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am truly amazed how the Bermuda High weakens so much this time of year for such a long period of time before making a comeback. We better hope nothing develops into the Caribbean during that time.


Heyyy. Long Time No See!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like Colin might become a Hurricane but, fishin he goes.


2686. Drakoen
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Reported


ROFLMAO, what did you spike your morning coffee with :)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really? I see plenty of 850mb vorticity up near 12N 31W.



Seems to be a different map than what I am looking at??

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Heyyy. Long Time No See!


Hey Sammy.......where you been hinding sorta like me as well...i avoid the blog mostly but, just pop in on occasions.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


Where does this image come from?



Here
2692. help4u
You get a line and i get a pole baby and will go down to the fishin hole!lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ex-Colin still holding out to the 40mph winds, however the pressure has decreased by 1mb to 1008mb. Interestingly enough it remains as a "wave".

AL, 04, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 230N, 650W, 35, 1008, WV,

Watching Colin is almost like listening to "the Boxer" by S&G.
so steering patters will predominately be recurves for CV storms for the next few weeks huh?
Quoting reedzone:
According to the steering maps, Colin should recurve right in the middle of the East Coast and Bermuda. The BAMMS is showing this while the other models take it too far east.
Did u see the OPC map for Monday that I posted? I think the models are assuming the newer front will move swiftly enough to push Colin very east very fast. I don't know how that gels with the stationary low over FL, but...
I'm sure most of you have seen videos like this before, but whether you have or have not, they're pretty fascinating. This one is a time lapse of the entire 2008 North Atlantic hurricane season. Viewing it, you'll notice how difficult it is even in a busy season for things to form; there's a lot more that goes into building a storm than just an ample supply of hot water. You'll also notice that, while we're focused on tropical phenomenon here, TCs are actually a fairly small part of a very large picture.

2698. IKE
2690...I don't think weather456 would have to create a new handle. I haven't seen eye to eye with him on everything but he's never done anything to require a new handle.

Why do I get the feeling you are from south Florida?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Seems to be a different map than what I am looking at??

Oh because I use the CIMSS PREDICT site. I don't think that there is a difference except the site I use updates every hour.
Oh and good morning!
2702. help4u
yes,if not longer.
2703. Drakoen
NASA GOES Animation reveals that Ex-Colin has a well-defined circulation.
At what point(if any) will Colin make hurricane status, and what's the chance of us here on the east coast (NC) picking up any groundswell from him? I'm thinking it will be minimal at most, due to his rapid forward motion and recurve, he'll be out of our 'window'. Unless we can pick up some backswell....
Storm,

Pete and Repete were on a boat. Pete fell off. Who was left?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Did u see the OPC map for Monday that I posted? I think the models are assuming the newer front will move swiftly enough to push Colin very east very fast. I don't know how that gels with the stationary low over FL, but...


The steering maps clearly show it moving NW, then a bit WNW, then north, and then it recurves. Based on those maps, I haven't seen any other front then the one expected to recurve it.
2708. Engine2
Quoting reedzone:


The steering maps clearly show it moving NW, then a bit WNW, then north, and then it recurves. Based on those maps, I haven't seen any other front then the one expected to recurve it.

yet again Reed I agree with you
Drakoen, what is your take on the Central Atlantic area?
2712. breald
Quoting Jeff9641:


Basically they said they expect an explosion in storms to occur over the next 2 weeks and one member from the NHC was on TWC last night and he said he really feels the US coast especially the SE US is for a big one or two down the road. Very ominious tone while listening to there discussions last night.


But it seems like it takes a month for a storm to form. We were tracking ex-Colin for weeks before it was decleared a TD.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah IKE, it's not 456...There's no entries on the blog of 457.


and 456's blog is still there, must be an imposter
2714. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Yeah IKE, it's not 456...There's no entries on the blog of 457.


And this is when this blog starts losing it again. WU needs a pay to enter on Dr. Masters blog and it would cut out a lot of the nonsense.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, what did you spike your morning coffee with :)
It's more of a hangover from last night....

BTW, do u guys see what I'm talking about w/ the ULLs?

Quoting StormW:


I know, but folks ain't getting it.


LOL!

I know I know. Good morning my friend.

Does anyone think COlin will be upgraded at 11?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Sammy.......where you been hinding sorta like me as well...i avoid the blog mostly but, just pop in on occasions.


Lol StormW as Well as you said when were in Negative Nao, Florida and the CONUS will be at greater risk.

Last Hurricane to Hit the State of FL: 2005 Wilma
Last Tropical Storm: 2010 Bonnie (Although Very Weak)
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Does anyone think COlin will be upgraded at 11?


It most likely wouldn't be upgraded until the HH's get out there. Bad thing is, it's being sheared a bit right now and it's circulation is ragged and may be exposed.
Correction....when in doubt ask storm.
Quoting StormW:
Just a little tidbit to think on...I don't have time to go through all the data (archived), but to touch on the NAO versus storm tracks. When the NAO goes negative (weaker A/B ridge / weaker Icelandic low), this DOES NOT imply storms are just going to automatically re-curve out to sea. The "weaker" high so to speak, with the combination of the Icelandic low, also weakens the "mean" trof that helps to re-curve storms, as well as not letting the axis as far south. I mean, think about it, if you weaken the A/B high and Icelandic low, how are you going to strengthen the "mean" trof? You don't. Remember, anytime you have a strong ridge, you're going to pump a stronger trof east of it. Weaker high...weaker trof to the east.

Here's is a comparison per se, as I said, I don't have time to research every year, but the maps show that, all tracks closer to the U.S. were in a NEGATIVE NAO phase, or transitioning from a moderate/strong negative toward positive, or at a weak positive (almost neutral).

1990 was a predominately positive NAO during the heart of the season, and 2005, 2008 were of what I had just mentioned.







StormW so you think we may have 2005 and 2008 type tracks?
Quoting weather457:

I'm weather 457 not 456


no kidding, but you stole his pic
I thought i had an Imposter the other day. But, i was just having an out of body moment after too many beers at the game! Wife did the driving!
Ppple, 456 has posted on his blog this week, but not on the main. Also, 456 can spell and use capitals properly. 'Nuff said; don't get distracted - have another cuppa coffee....
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Does anyone think COlin will be upgraded at 11?
Satellite imagery shows an evident well-defined surface circulation so if the NHC chooses they definitely could, but they very likely will wait for recon to investigate. We may see red at 2PM EDT though.
whats the latest on 92? Will there be any recon into it? looks like the models have not changed from yesterday
Quoting TampaSpin:
I thought i had an Imposter the other day. But, i was just having an out of body moment after too many beers at the game! Wife did the driving!


I had an imposter. Tom Cruise!

People mistake him for me all the time!

So not fair. Especially since he makes more $.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Satellite imagery shows an evident well-defined surface circulation so if the NHC chooses they definitely could, but they very likely will wait for recon to investigate. We may see red at 2PM EDT though.


I dont think they will upgrade at 11 since they have recon going in this afternoon, I think they will wait for proof.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


I dont think they will upgrade at 11 since they have recon going in this afternoon, I think they will wait for proof.
Yeah probably.
Gotta go. See youse guys lata..
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol StormW as Well as you said when were in Negative Nao, Florida and the CONUS will be at greater risk.

Last Hurricane to Hit the State of FL: 2005 Wilma
Last Tropical Storm: 2010 Bonnie (Although Very Weak)


I would say StormW is much smarter than me about this stuff as he is the total professional...and he probably beats me by a small margin on looks too.......LOL
2736. Squid28
Quoting IKE:


And this is when this blog starts losing it again. WU needs a pay to enter on Dr. Masters blog and it would cut out a lot of the nonsense.


Until this year, my ignore list has always floated at around 12 handles (and I cleared it at the start of season). I have always tried to give everyone but the worst offenders a chance to be seen. I just checked and I am at 61 on the ole list as of now, otherwise I could not possibly even read the blog for wading through all the extra "stuff". Looks like it is time to bump the shield up another notch......
2737. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Drakoen, what is your take on the Central Atlantic area?


The pouch associated with PGI24L is going to try to phase with the vorticity within the ITCZ possibly giving us Danielle. Upper level winds should be conducive for some development.
2738. SLU
weather457:

I'm weather 457 not 456


Very distasteful. You shall be R-E-P-O-R-T-E-D.
Good morning guys I just woke up to see that both 92L and ex-colin is doing very well more so for 92L last night it looked bad and convectionless and now todat it looks good and also look to be moving WNW-NW I see it at 15.9N 78.2W
2740. Patrap
..Yawwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.
As others have noted, Colin's vision won't improve until he can put his eye back into its socket:

Colin

Source
2742. Drakoen
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 16.1N 33.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.08.2010 16.1N 33.3W MODERATE
00UTC 07.08.2010 17.9N 34.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2010 19.8N 36.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Quoting Squid28:


Until this year, my ignore list has always floated at around 12 handles (and I cleared it at the start of season). I have always tried to give everyone but the worst offenders a chance to be seen. I just checked and I am at 61 on the ole list as of now, otherwise I could not possibly even read the blog for wading through all the extra "stuff". Looks like it is time to bump the shield up another notch......

Lol there are problay "10 jasonisacoolman" handles and 40 are JFV'S Imposters.
nothing but fish this year
2745. IKE
2746. Patrap
er..


NEW BLOG.
Quoting Patrap:
..Yawwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.


Yep, and I hope it stays this way. Be nice to snooze through the season, instead of just taking cat naps, wouldn't it?
Quoting IKE:


And this is when this blog starts losing it again. WU needs a pay to enter on Dr. Masters blog and it would cut out a lot of the nonsense.


I agree!!
2749. viman
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Does anyone think COlin will be upgraded at 11?


Not with an exposed LLC it wont...
2750. SLU
The circulation of ex-Colin has become better defined but the convective organisation of the system is very poor this morning. The large rain band to the north of the system is actually moving away from the center and not trying to wrap into the circulation. Also there are outflow boundaries developing on the northern side. This suggests that the system is not strengthing at this time.

Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, what did you spike your morning coffee with :)
45-7 = troublemaker
Quoting StormW:

Eye spy an LLC! (thats why Colin won't be upgraded)
Quoting jeffs713:

Eye spy an LLC! (thats why Colin won't be upgraded)
do you mean ull?:)
blog died:(
Quoting sarahjola:
do you mean ull?:)

I was referring to StormW's RGB pic of ex-Colin, showing the LLC coming out from under cloudcover rather naked.
The weather here in Baton Rouge is turning very nasty very quickly with a strong line of storms moving in.
good morning Storm,

Great to see you as usual. quick question. with all the talk about potentially getting tropical storm Daniel next week, in your analysis, do you see this storm recurving out to sea similar to Colin?

What do the steering current look like? Another trough? Thanks as always
2758. hang10z
Good Morning Everyone, I really hope Old man willicker Colin will pump some North Swells down the coast of E FL... Its been awhile since I've gotten some overhead waves...

Lets hope it misses Bermuda

I agree with TampaSpin. Storm is the ultimate professional and a great guy as well. Very accurate and always on the money!

We are happy you part of Weather Underground Storm! Thanks!

On a seperate note, the if the negative NAO puts Florida at more risk, then after August 10 to potentially October end, I will be watching the tropics very carefully.

Prerak
***Off Topic Question**** Does anyone know what the sun symbol on ebay means ... ex (Link)


**** On Topic ****

Why isnt this a TS right now and when is recon supposed to get there?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
***Off Topic Question**** Does anyone know what the sun symbol on ebay means ... ex (Link)


**** On Topic ****

Why isnt this a TS right now and when is recon supposed to get there?




plz stop with that you no vary well that the recone is in there